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PB 2025 predicitions competition – final chance to enter – politicalbetting.com

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  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769
    Sandpit said:

    Edit: Matt Walsh is a mainstream conservative journalist, commentator, documentarian, and satirist.
    That sentence contains twelve words. By my reckoning, only eight are true, and they include the words "Edit", "Matt" "Walsh" "is" "a" and "and".
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    edited January 31

    Suspect Reform will be jumping on stuff like this as it is just not sustainable. Should say that the figures don't correlate, as the dependant could be from previous year, but it is the picture it paints. Figures from Home Office visa tables.


    Karl Williams
    @MalvernianKarl
    ·
    17h
    Apropos of nothing, in the first six months of 2024, we gave out 1,063 health & care visas to workers from Zimbabwe. They brought with them 10,670 dependants. That's 10 dependants for every (likely minimum wage) social care worker.

    As I said in the previous thread, the last Conservative government (and it may well be the *last* Conservative government), was lucky to get 24%. I think it was the worst government of my entire lifetime, worse even than Harold Wilson's final administration, in 1974-76. We'll see if the current lot are better or worse.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261

    But while performing the complicated manoeuvre of having them still vote for him.
    Agreed, but that might still be better than having them vote for something else. To my mind there is a clear divide between Farage and fascists. We need to be genuinely vigilant against the latter and call them out because they are genuinely dangerous and on the march, and it doesn't help that effort to try to tar rightwingers like Farage with the same brush.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    Dopermean said:

    The CDU will try to pass their 2nd bill this week relying on AfD support, this week is the first time that AfD support has been relied on. The German politics expert on R4 this morning (from Queens Uni, Belfast) said that this is only promoting the AfD.
    Though breaking news is that the Conservative coalition is having 2nd thoughts https://www.dw.com/en/german-lawmakers-set-to-vote-on-contentious-immigration-law/live-71465034

    Any markets on Merz going?
    (The Wednesday vote was just a motion rather than a bill.)

    Even if the bill were passed in the Bundestag, it has zero chance of getting approval (which it needs) in the Bundesrat which is made up of delegates from the state governments. The CDU premiers of Schleswig Holstein and Berlin have already said their delegates would vote against any bill in the Bundesrat that only passed the Bundestag with AfD votes. In fact it's hard to see which of the 17 states would vote for it in the Bundesrat except Bavaria.

    Things could theoretically change after the election, in the sense that Merz has said supporting the bill would be a condition for joining the coalition, and the SPD could get its state delegations to approve the bill. I don't think there's any chance whatsoever of the Green Party going into a coalition on the basis of supporting legislation it believes is unconstitutional and contravenes European treaties Germany is party to. The SPD, not really having any principles, is maybe a remote chance, though extremely doubtful.

    So, as is usual in Germany, a compromise will have to be reached. But Merz has stupidly nailed his colours to the mast so when he does compromise it will be a further boost to the AfD.

    Anyway, it does look like the bill will be postponed as the FDP are suddenly saying they want to send it back to committee. This would be a relief for many in the CDU too - at least the one or 2 people I know who are privately extremely unhappy with Merz's tactics.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    I found what i was looking for earlier. The actual complaint from the lawsuit against the FAA.

    https://x.com/tracewoodgrains/status/1752091831095939471
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240

    See yesterday’s polling on Brexit.

    Admitting you are pro-Brexit is like soiling yourself in public.
    The largest support in that poll was for a closer relationship with the EU without rejoining the EU, which would still be Brexit just a softer Brexit
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,137

    Pro tip, always call them darling or sweetheart.

    Don’t be a hero and call them by their name because inevitability one day you’ll call them the wrong name and that’s when it all unravels.
    Surely the trick is to have a mistress with the same name as one's wife? :wink:

    (Or, indeed, not to have a mistress!)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    edited January 31

    Suspect Reform will be jumping on stuff like this as it is just not sustainable. Should say that the figures don't correlate, as the dependant could be from previous year, but it is the picture it paints. Figures from Home Office visa tables.


    Karl Williams
    @MalvernianKarl
    ·
    17h
    Apropos of nothing, in the first six months of 2024, we gave out 1,063 health & care visas to workers from Zimbabwe. They brought with them 10,670 dependants. That's 10 dependants for every (likely minimum wage) social care worker.

    To be fair to Rishi though he ended dependents being brought over before he left office unless the immigrant worker earnt enough to support them ie £38,700 or more
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,137
    Carnyx said:

    Two directions ...

    #PBpedantry#
    You know, I even thought of that and thought, "no, that's too pedantic, even for here". Glad you've proved me wrong :smiley:
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,740
    edited January 31

    That's real DEI. As opposed to "we need DEI - quick, someone invent a PowerPoint pack...

    My guesstimate is that the university barrier hits the white working class and long term UK origin Afro-Carribbean working class the most. You see every group in banking but those 2 - you see recent immigrants from African countries, but none from the long term black community. And the barrow boys are virtually extinct.
    We have plenty of people from a Pakistani background, but very few from a British-Pakistani background. Always been curious about that.

    I think the DEI in the right-wing mind is very different to that you experience in a corporate setting. It's either entirely inconsequential, or used effectively by senior partners to grab smart kids straight from school into non-grad programmes. They tend to be very high performers.

    But Trump's DEI is very obviously a dog whistle for "the blacks, the gays, trans, women" etc etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    Dopermean said:

    The CDU will try to pass their 2nd bill this week relying on AfD support, this week is the first time that AfD support has been relied on. The German politics expert on R4 this morning (from Queens Uni, Belfast) said that this is only promoting the AfD.
    Though breaking news is that the Conservative coalition is having 2nd thoughts https://www.dw.com/en/german-lawmakers-set-to-vote-on-contentious-immigration-law/live-71465034

    Any markets on Merz going?
    The FDP likely to vote for it too and zero chance of Merz going given he is odds on to be next Chancellor next month
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    HYUFD said:

    The FDP likely to vote for it too and zero chance of Merz going given he is odds on to be next Chancellor next month
    Very close to being sent back to committee now, just waiting for an announcement from the Greens.
  • It looks to me like those panels are mounted on a tilting mechanism, so they can be stored vertically whilst the combine is in, but turned to a better angle when being used for generation.

    However, I'm not quite sure this is more efficient than a field of solar panels and a field of wheat. No doubt someone has the numbers...
    When on train to London I'd look at fields of solar panels and wonder why they were fixed and didn't tilt in alignment with the sun, to make them produce more solar energy. Turns out the cost of the tracking systems is more than the solar panels. Imagine it would be cheaper to pay someone to tilt them manually.

    In your example, would the dust and debris from the combine not cover the panels, having an effect on their productivity?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,990
    mwadams said:

    I am not entering the competition due to lack of predictive ability.
    Likewise, but I've entered for the shitz n gigglez...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    @fleetstreetfox

    The coverage of the 5yr Brexit anniversary in today's papers is so muted you'd be forgiven for thinking it was an internationally-embarrassing fuck-up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003
    Sandpit said:

    I found what i was looking for earlier. The actual complaint from the lawsuit against the FAA.

    https://x.com/tracewoodgrains/status/1752091831095939471

    Worst subject in school "science" makes the test more likely to be passed. Bonkers.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    Eabhal said:

    We have plenty of people from a Pakistani background, but very few from a British-Pakistani background. Always been curious about that.

    I think the DEI in the right-wing mind is very different to that you experience in a corporate setting. It's either entirely inconsequential, or used effectively by senior partners to grab smart kids straight from school into non-grad programmes. They tend to be very high performers.

    But Trump's DEI is very obviously a dog whistle for "the blacks, the gays, trans, women" etc etc.
    The older, poor, immigrant communities have (in part), become truly British working class. Expectations of "getting out" and improving yourself are very low.

    From talking to this guy - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moe_Sbihi - he described how the other kids in his class at school saw their future jobs as stacking shelves at Tesco. As the good outcome.

    All the first generation immigrants I encounter are *desparate* for their children to move up the ladder. Or at least stay on the nice rungs, if they are already there.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,071
    TOPPING said:

    As mentioned yday, and having gone through every comment on PPrune (12 pages as was), it seems to have been an accident waiting to happen. Hugely congested, lights everywhere, different radio channels, different aircraft doing different things, the willingness of aircraft (as permitted by ATC) to fly on visuals (see, I'm an expert now), the seeming misidentification of aircraft (by the helicopter, who acknowledged they'd seen "a" plane, just not, it is likely, "the" plane), etc. And all underpinned by the need (?) to have that airport a hugely busy one given its location in Washington.

    Everyone was doing the right thing (said one Apache guy on PPrune) to which another commentator said:

    "If everyone is 'doing the right thing', then **** shouldn't happen, because the rules should be designed to avoid 100% of accidents if everyone follows those rules. So either somebody was not 'doing the right thing', or something is wrong with the rules. **** happens when there are unexpected circumstances. This was not an unexpected circumstance."
    If your human factors include Angelina Jolie and Cate Blanchett, distactions are inevitable.
    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120797/
  • glwglw Posts: 10,254

    A short post to make MAGA supporters froth: DEI (aka EDI) programs, if properly implemented (and there is the crux) increase the candidate pool rather than decrease it. Axing DEI programs is very unlikely to make skill shortages better and will most likely make them worse.

    Exactly. If you have a organisation and you aren't reaching a recruitment target and your workforce is mostly white middle-age men, then actually trying to expand the pool of people you recruit from (like the 50% of the population who aren't men) should 1. increase the chance of reaching your target, and 2. drive up standards as you aren't missing out on all the capable people outside of the pool you currently recruit from.

    An organisation that is blaming DEI for failure to recruit and improve is almost certainly begrudgingly implementing programmes, and full of people who don't take them seriously and are prejudiced.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907

    Suspect Reform will be jumping on stuff like this as it is just not sustainable. Should say that the figures don't correlate, as the dependant could be from previous year, but it is the picture it paints. Figures from Home Office visa tables.


    Karl Williams
    @MalvernianKarl
    ·
    17h
    Apropos of nothing, in the first six months of 2024, we gave out 1,063 health & care visas to workers from Zimbabwe. They brought with them 10,670 dependants. That's 10 dependants for every (likely minimum wage) social care worker.

    They certainly should be all over this. All to save a few quid an hour. 10 dependents per person. What a crock. Absolute insanity. Well done Tory Party you deserve to be out of power for a long term. How much will these dependents cost the taxpayer.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,961

    Agreed, but that might still be better than having them vote for something else. To my mind there is a clear divide between Farage and fascists. We need to be genuinely vigilant against the latter and call them out because they are genuinely dangerous and on the march, and it doesn't help that effort to try to tar rightwingers like Farage with the same brush.
    I prefer fascist adjacent. I have no doubt that Farage would happily ‘work with’ AfD, Le Pen and whatever other horrors pop up on the political horizon. These people getting palsied fingers on the levers of power would be seen as a positive not a negative by him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003
    edited January 31

    When on train to London I'd look at fields of solar panels and wonder why they were fixed and didn't tilt in alignment with the sun, to make them produce more solar energy. Turns out the cost of the tracking systems is more than the solar panels. Imagine it would be cheaper to pay someone to tilt them manually.

    In your example, would the dust and debris from the combine not cover the panels, having an effect on their productivity?
    Rain tends to never be too far away in this country. The cost of cleaning likely outweighs the gains - the farmer might do it himself if he's got spare time but it wouldn't be a priority job.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,153
    Foxy said:

    In another life I could have been a Royal Navy Psychiatrist. That was my initial desire as a speciality, and I was accepted into the RN medical cadet scheme. In 1986

    However, I met Mrs Foxy and my life turned in another direction.
    From a unselfish and overpoweringly important perspective I'm glad you met Mrs F., however from a selfish perspective I wish it had been you treating me when I was diagnosed with Cotard's Syndrome (among other things).

    However, you made the right call. The life of a junior naval officer is highly incompatible with being married. Some make it work, but lots more don't.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769
    ...The older, poor, immigrant communities have (in part), become truly British working class. Expectations of "getting out" and improving yourself are very low...
    I think that's true of a lot of people now. Governments used to be based around the concept of advancing the working class, and even Boris tried to "level up" (insofar as he genuinely tried to do anything). But now? Not even close. Danny Dorling is despairing about this.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003
    edited January 31
    Taz said:

    They certainly should be all over this. All to save a few quid an hour. 10 dependents per person. What a crock. Absolute insanity. Well done Tory Party you deserve to be out of power for a long term. How much will these dependents cost the taxpayer.
    What sort of system allows someone to bring in 10 dependents ?!?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    glw said:

    Exactly. If you have a organisation and you aren't reaching a recruitment target and your workforce is mostly white middle-age men, then actually trying to expand the pool of people you recruit from (like the 50% of the population who aren't men) should 1. increase the chance of reaching your target, and 2. drive up standards as you aren't missing out on all the capable people outside of the pool you currently recruit from.

    An organisation that is blaming DEI for failure to recruit and improve is almost certainly begrudgingly implementing programmes, and full of people who don't take them seriously and are prejudiced.
    From a brief trawl through the various online sources, the FAA tried to implement DEI in recruitment by creating a complicated process that made no sense. Then kept complicating it and twiddling the knobs to "fix" it. This was because no one tried a holistic approach. And they wanted instant results.

    It's a very American solution - look at the output only. Keep adding random wiring - and wonder why the output is no better. Meanwhile, the rats nest of wiring is actually worse. And there are odd sparks....

    The bit that makes me giggle is that there has been a shortage of air traffic controllers, in the US, since forever. As you say, DEI should be *adding* to the recruitment pool.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769
    edited January 31
    sarissa said:

    If your human factors include Angelina Jolie and Cate Blanchett, distactions are inevitable.
    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120797/
    I like that film. I've used the phrase "I've got them lined up like the Rockettes" in real life.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    edited January 31
    .
    Pulpstar said:

    Worst subject in school "science" makes the test more likely to be passed. Bonkers.
    Imagine if learning stuff like aerodynamics or meteorology was seen to be a disadvantage when applying for an ATC job. 🙄

    In the UK, NATS (National Air Traffic Services, state employer of air traffic controllers) certainly used to sponsor their controllers to get a private pilot’s licence in their spare time (if they didn’t have one already, which most of them did!).

    A very different approach to what we see in the US.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 849
    Brexit 5th Anniversary Celebration Party!!
    Venue to be announced*

    *they're looking for a room extended by knocking through the supporting wall without putting in any reinforcement.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    HYUFD said:

    The largest support in that poll was for a closer relationship with the EU without rejoining the EU, which would still be Brexit just a softer Brexit
    Few people who are ostensibly in favour of joining seem to have really thought about the difference between joining the EU today and never having left in 2016.

    You see loads of them on here - often they work (and worked) with the EU, but only in one area like financial services, and have a limited concept of the implications of now joining the rest and which bits are linked together. Even the support in that poll for joining the Single Market will reflect the fact that most people seem to think the single market is about trade.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    Dura_Ace said:

    From a unselfish and overpoweringly important perspective I'm glad you met Mrs F., however from a selfish perspective I wish it had been you treating me when I was diagnosed with Cotard's Syndrome (among other things).

    However, you made the right call. The life of a junior naval officer is highly incompatible with being married. Some make it work, but lots more don't.
    Having looked that up, I will eschew further mention of my minor medial procedure.

    *…among other things*
  • Pulpstar said:

    Rain tends to never be too far away in this country. The cost of cleaning likely outweighs the gains - the farmer might do it himself if he's got spare time but it wouldn't be a priority job.
    In this case, I think the panels are actually fixed in a vertical position, even though this is obviously suboptimal for light collection. They replace the windbreaks that were previously used to protect the crops from wind damage.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,005

    I prefer fascist adjacent. I have no doubt that Farage would happily ‘work with’ AfD, Le Pen and whatever other horrors pop up on the political horizon. These people getting palsied fingers on the levers of power would be seen as a positive not a negative by him.
    Maybe we need make gradations, far right, far far right, extreme right, nazi?
    For example Marine Le Pen apparently thinks AfD is to far right.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    @rcs1000
    This is a very rare form of pancreatic cancer (only around 1% I think), but on the off chance it’s relevant, this treatment looks very promising indeed.

    Pan-RAS Inhibitor Shows Early, Deep Molecular Responses in PDAC
    https://dailynews.ascopubs.org/do/pan-ras-inhibitor-shows-early-deep-molecular-responses-pdac

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    Suspect Reform will be jumping on stuff like this as it is just not sustainable. Should say that the figures don't correlate, as the dependant could be from previous year, but it is the picture it paints. Figures from Home Office visa tables.


    Karl Williams
    @MalvernianKarl
    ·
    17h
    Apropos of nothing, in the first six months of 2024, we gave out 1,063 health & care visas to workers from Zimbabwe. They brought with them 10,670 dependants. That's 10 dependants for every (likely minimum wage) social care worker.

    What the actual f***?

    Can’t they just set up a recruitment centre in Manila? There would be a queue around the block for UK visas for care workers, most of whom would be qualified nurses and could work towards UK certification.

    Charge £10k/year/dependent for visas.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,961
    biggles said:

    Few people who are ostensibly in favour of joining seem to have really thought about the difference between joining the EU today and never having left in 2016.

    You see loads of them on here - often they work (and worked) with the EU, but only in one area like financial services, and have a limited concept of the implications of now joining the rest and which bits are linked together. Even the support in that poll for joining the Single Market will reflect the fact that most people seem to think the single market is about trade.
    Tbf there seem to have been loads of folk who didn't think about the consequences of voting to leave the EU in 2015.
    To sum up, there are a lot of folk who don't really think.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 849
    HYUFD said:

    The FDP likely to vote for it too and zero chance of Merz going given he is odds on to be next Chancellor next month
    The report is that the FDP want to delay it, noted that Merz is very short odds but his AfD flirtation seems to be unpopular in the CDU.
    Would laying him have value as a trading bet?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    a

    In this case, I think the panels are actually fixed in a vertical position, even though this is obviously suboptimal for light collection. They replace the windbreaks that were previously used to protect the crops from wind damage.
    Panels are getting cheap enough that they are actually competitive as "long lasting, rigid, water proof, not needing painting, sheets of stuff". The electricity generating thing is almost a freebie.

    The real cost is in the electronics to turn the output into grid power.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 997
    1. Highest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform. 30.25;18;30
    2. Lowest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform.25;18;10;20
    3. Number of Reform MPs on 31/12/2025. 5
    4. Number of Tory MP defectors to Reform in 2025. 0
    5. Number of Westminster by-elections held in 2025. 2
    6. Number of ministers to leave the Westminster cabinet during 2025. 3
    7. Number of seats won by the AfD in the May 2025 German Federal Election. 125
    8. UK CPI figure for November 2025 (Nov 2024 = 2.6%).1.9%
    9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2025 (Year to Nov 2024 = £113.2bn). £125bn
    10. UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2025 (Oct 23 to Oct 24 = 1.3%). 0.0%
    11. US growth annualised rate in Q3 2025 (Q3 2024 = 3.1%). 3.0%
    12. EU growth Q3 2024 to Q3 2025 (2024 = 1.0%). 0.0%
    13. USD/Ruble exchange rate at London FOREX close on 31/12/2025 (31/12/2024 = 114 USD/RUB). 85
    14. The result of the 2025-2026 Ashes series (2023 series: Drawn 2–2). 3-2 England

  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    Sandpit said:

    What the actual f***?

    Can’t they just set up a recruitment centre in Manila? There would be a queue around the block for UK visas for care workers, most of whom would be qualified nurses and could work towards UK certification.

    Charge £10k/year/dependent for visas.
    They do recruit from Manila.

    When my wife was in HR for the NHS she went, with a team, to the Phillipines to recruit nurses.

    There was a queue round the block. People travelled for days from outer areas to get there.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935

    Agreed, but that might still be better than having them vote for something else. To my mind there is a clear divide between Farage and fascists. We need to be genuinely vigilant against the latter and call them out because they are genuinely dangerous and on the march, and it doesn't help that effort to try to tar rightwingers like Farage with the same brush.
    I don't actually see much difference between Farage and the Braverman wing of the Tory party. He is closer in politics, to Starmer and Badenoch than Trump or the AfD despite his bromance with the orange one.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,907

    Suspect Reform will be jumping on stuff like this as it is just not sustainable. Should say that the figures don't correlate, as the dependant could be from previous year, but it is the picture it paints. Figures from Home Office visa tables.


    Karl Williams
    @MalvernianKarl
    ·
    17h
    Apropos of nothing, in the first six months of 2024, we gave out 1,063 health & care visas to workers from Zimbabwe. They brought with them 10,670 dependants. That's 10 dependants for every (likely minimum wage) social care worker.

    This is the sort of thing that will lead to Farage being in government after the next election.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769

    Maybe we need make gradations, far right, far far right, extreme right, nazi?
    For example Marine Le Pen apparently thinks AfD is to far right.
    There are inherent problems with assessing political parties along a single axis. My preference is for multiple axes or, ideally, group analysis. But people don't like that so we have tortured analogies like "horseshoe theory", which is what happens when you try to make a single axis behave like two.

    Here's my article: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/01/07/classification/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,907
    Sandpit said:

    I found what i was looking for earlier. The actual complaint from the lawsuit against the FAA.

    https://x.com/tracewoodgrains/status/1752091831095939471

    Unbelievable. Everyone should read this imo.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,907
    Sandpit said:

    I found what i was looking for earlier. The actual complaint from the lawsuit against the FAA.

    https://x.com/tracewoodgrains/status/1752091831095939471

    Unbelievable. Everyone should read this imo.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    Pulpstar said:

    What sort of system allows someone to bring in 10 dependents ?!?
    The one pioneered by the Tory party after Brexit. The one Priti Patel was defending so vigorously on an interview with Harry Cole.

    10 dependents is an average so some will be considerably higher.

    And after a few months they have access to all sorts of services

    You cannot blame someone in Zimbabwe looking at the UK and coming over to wipe old peoples bums for minimum wage if they can bring a load of dependents to freeload off the nation at the taxpayers expense. If I lived there I'd probably do it. But it is mad. How many of these people are going to be economically inactive.

    Care homes are able to issue Visa's. As long as they get the cheap labour they want what do they care about the burden to the taxpayer.

    Here we go.

    https://nursingabroad.net/uk-care-homes-offering-visa-sponsorship-a-guide-for-international-candidates/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769
    Andy_JS said:

    Unbelievable. Everyone should read this imo.
    Andy_JS said:

    Unbelievable. Everyone should read this imo.
    Read it twice? :)
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    Andy_JS said:

    This is the sort of thing that will lead to Farage being in government after the next election.
    Sir Kier will simply give all of these freeloaders, and this is the tip of the iceberg, citizenship and the vote :smiley:
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,318
    Pulpstar said:

    What sort of system allows someone to bring in 10 dependents ?!?
    Its worse than that, surely? That's the average.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    Andy_JS said:

    Unbelievable. Everyone should read this imo.
    You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

    Inevitable is another word.

    1) Take a complex issue - recruitment - add multiple agendas. All valid agendas, by the way
    2) See that the output isn't what you want.
    3) Add some complexity to the process, based on the recommendations of narrowly focused people.
    4) Loop back to 2)
    5) Repeat long enough, and you have the script for Brazil Part Deux
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    Taz said:

    They do recruit from Manila.

    When my wife was in HR for the NHS she went, with a team, to the Phillipines to recruit nurses.

    There was a queue round the block. People travelled for days from outer areas to get there.
    Awesome! Something like 80% of the nurses in the sandpit are Filipinas, lovely people.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,686

    I don't actually see much difference between Farage and the Braverman wing of the Tory party. He is closer in politics, to Starmer and Badenoch than Trump or the AfD despite his bromance with the orange one.
    Hmm, I am not sure. The founder of UKIP, Alan Sked has said that Farage is a racist. Farage doesn't care about whipping up divisive hatred. I would say he is very very close to Trump in many ways. How much farther to the right the AfD are, I am not able to judge. I am right of centre in most of my politics, but I see Farage as an odious egotistical crypto-fascist.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    Andy_JS said:

    Unbelievable. Everyone should read this imo.
    So Trump was right then.

    People may despise the man, but they shouldn't think him stupid. He absolutely knew this info going into the press conference, and couldn't resist jumping the gun, which wasn't appropriate, but now he looks 'prescient', and those yelling at him have massive egg on their face.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    edited January 31
    Taz said:

    The one pioneered by the Tory party after Brexit. The one Priti Patel was defending so vigorously on an interview with Harry Cole.

    10 dependents is an average so some will be considerably higher.

    And after a few months they have access to all sorts of services

    You cannot blame someone in Zimbabwe looking at the UK and coming over to wipe old peoples bums for minimum wage if they can bring a load of dependents to freeload off the nation at the taxpayers expense. If I lived there I'd probably do it. But it is mad. How many of these people are going to be economically inactive.

    Care homes are able to issue Visa's. As long as they get the cheap labour they want what do they care about the burden to the taxpayer.

    Here we go.

    https://nursingabroad.net/uk-care-homes-offering-visa-sponsorship-a-guide-for-international-candidates/
    And giving all kind of companies the right to (in effect) to issue work visas - what could go wrong.

    It's not as if people aren't paying criminals 4 figures for a life threatening journey across the Channel for the opportunity to work illegally, after all. In a crazy world like that, how much would a legit work visa be worth, do you think?

    Yes, companies have already been caught selling visas.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    Sandpit said:

    Awesome! Something like 80% of the nurses in the sandpit are Filipinas, lovely people.
    They're great. They also recruit from India. The nurses have to commit to 3 years in the region. Problem it a fair few of the Indian ones then move off to Leicester, Brum, London and other places with a large diaspora. The Filipino's tend to put down roots and stay. The Phillipines trains more nurses than they need and get paid a fee for the ones we take.

    Works brilliantly and they are fantastic workers.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    Taz said:

    They're great. They also recruit from India. The nurses have to commit to 3 years in the region. Problem it a fair few of the Indian ones then move off to Leicester, Brum, London and other places with a large diaspora. The Filipino's tend to put down roots and stay. The Phillipines trains more nurses than they need and get paid a fee for the ones we take.

    Works brilliantly and they are fantastic workers.
    "The Philippines trains more nurses than they need" - hmmm. We have a shortage of training places for people who graduate with medical degrees.

    Perhaps we could do a deal.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003
    Taz said:

    The one pioneered by the Tory party after Brexit. The one Priti Patel was defending so vigorously on an interview with Harry Cole.

    10 dependents is an average so some will be considerably higher.

    And after a few months they have access to all sorts of services

    You cannot blame someone in Zimbabwe looking at the UK and coming over to wipe old peoples bums for minimum wage if they can bring a load of dependents to freeload off the nation at the taxpayers expense. If I lived there I'd probably do it. But it is mad. How many of these people are going to be economically inactive.

    Care homes are able to issue Visa's. As long as they get the cheap labour they want what do they care about the burden to the taxpayer.

    Here we go.

    https://nursingabroad.net/uk-care-homes-offering-visa-sponsorship-a-guide-for-international-candidates/
    I can't remember critisicm of Patel for this sort of thing though. All the noise I remember about her (Prior to her Israeli adventures) was from those thinking she was far too harsh - essentially from a leftward direction if you like. Not for stuff like this, which was obviously going on on her watch. It's just bizzare.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935

    Hmm, I am not sure. The founder of UKIP, Alan Sked has said that Farage is a racist. Farage doesn't care about whipping up divisive hatred. I would say he is very very close to Trump in many ways. How much farther to the right the AfD are, I am not able to judge. I am right of centre in most of my politics, but I see Farage as an odious egotistical crypto-fascist.
    How many of the following would Farage do:

    Blatantly lie about an election result
    Encourage his supporters to attack the police
    Encourage his supporters to hang his deputy
    Blame minorities for an air crash within hours of it happening
    Threaten to invade Greenland

    He is definitely unpleasant at times, likes a cheap shot, but that is true of plenty in all the established parties. He is closer to them than the likes of Trump.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,686
    Andy_JS said:

    Unbelievable. Everyone should read this imo.
    Maybe there is something to froth about here, but before frothing, it is important to see the word "plaintiff" and accept that this is a class action by (most likely) contingent fee lawyers, who, particularly in the US, like to us PR techniques with selective evidence. I will be interested to see the adjudication at the end. BTW, I don't doubt that some EDI programs are abused, but that is not a reason to dispense with them entirely.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    edited January 31
    Taz said:

    They're great. They also recruit from India. The nurses have to commit to 3 years in the region. Problem it a fair few of the Indian ones then move off to Leicester, Brum, London and other places with a large diaspora. The Filipino's tend to put down roots and stay. The Phillipines trains more nurses than they need and get paid a fee for the ones we take.

    Works brilliantly and they are fantastic workers.
    That’s very well put. The Filipinas are a closer cultural match and tend to integrate much better, they’re generally Catholics and will aspire to either marry local Brits or stay for a few years and go back home with enough money to buy a house.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    edited January 31

    "The Philippines trains more nurses than they need" - hmmm. We have a shortage of training places for people who graduate with medical degrees.

    Perhaps we could do a deal.
    I have just said that. We do. Well South Tyneside and Sunderland Trust do.

    Probably something other trusts could do as well.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,686

    How many of the following would Farage do:

    Blatantly lie about an election result
    Encourage his supporters to attack the police
    Encourage his supporters to hang his deputy
    Blame minorities for an air crash within hours of it happening
    Threaten to invade Greenland

    He is definitely unpleasant at times, likes a cheap shot, but that is true of plenty in all the established parties. He is closer to them than the likes of Trump.
    How often has he really challenged Trump on these things? Not much that I have noticed. He is also a recidivist apologist for Putin, which in my opinion makes him scum of the earth.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461

    Maybe there is something to froth about here, but before frothing, it is important to see the word "plaintiff" and accept that this is a class action by (most likely) contingent fee lawyers, who, particularly in the US, like to us PR techniques with selective evidence. I will be interested to see the adjudication at the end. BTW, I don't doubt that some EDI programs are abused, but that is not a reason to dispense with them entirely.
    Absolutely. I'd add that the problem looks like the approach of fixing problems by endless and stupid patching.

    EDI is like a lot of HR. Often implemented by people who have no clue - "How hard can it be?"
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    Pulpstar said:

    I can't remember critisicm of Patel for this sort of thing though. All the noise I remember about her (Prior to her Israeli adventures) was from those thinking she was far too harsh - essentially from a leftward direction if you like. Not for stuff like this, which was obviously going on on her watch. It's just bizzare.
    She was defending it on an interview with Harry Cole from The Sun so was copping the flak for it.

    The Tories chopped and changed so much around that time it is hard to remember who dealt with what.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935

    How often has he really challenged Trump on these things? Not much that I have noticed. He is also a recidivist apologist for Putin, which in my opinion makes him scum of the earth.
    He wants the Trump bromance. So do Starmer, Lammy and Mandelson whilst they are in power.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    "The Philippines trains more nurses than they need" - hmmm. We have a shortage of training places for people who graduate with medical degrees.

    Perhaps we could do a deal.
    I’ve long said on here that the NHS should set up a full teaching hospital in Manila or Mumbai, with UK qualifications handed out and visas on offer for the graduates. Run it with senior NHS medical staff on a short secondment after retirement, but local adminstration, and offer treatment to locals at a fair price without upsetting their existing system too much. Even offer to treat the NHS backlog at what must be a ridiculously cheap price even with travel and hotels.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003
    edited January 31
    Taz said:

    She was defending it on an interview with Harry Cole from The Sun so was copping the flak for it.

    The Tories chopped and changed so much around that time it is hard to remember who dealt with what.
    The entire UK care license system is systematically abused and not fit for purpose. All sorts of articles from all sorts of angles on this.

    https://www.unseenuk.org/how-to-tackle-exploitation-of-migrant-care-workers-in-uk/

    https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2024-05-11/one-hell-to-another-thousands-of-care-workers-risk-deportation-after-employers-breach-rules/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14080785/Daily-Mail-journalist-honoured-expose-cash-care-jobs-scam.html

    Maybe a national care system would improve things, e.g. your Sunderland Trust/Manila relationship seems to work well.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    Sandpit said:

    I’ve long said on here that the NHS should set up a full teaching hospital in Manila or Mumbai, with UK qualifications handed out and visas on offer for the graduates. Run it with senior NHS medical staff on a short secondment after retirement, but local adminstration, and offer treatment to locals at a fair price without upsetting their existing system too much. Even offer to treat the NHS backlog at what must be a ridiculously cheap price even with travel and hotels.
    Why not send UK grads there? The next bottleneck, after university, is training places in the UK.

    Which is a blocker to training more UK origin staff.
  • ManOfGwentManOfGwent Posts: 147
    edited January 31
    Taz said:

    I have just said that. We do. Well South Tyneside and Sunderland Trust do.

    Probably something other trusts could do as well.
    My better half is a senior sister in A&E, she says the nurses from the Philippines are far better trained than nurses from other countries, including the UK. The only issue is we eventually lose them to the US where they will get far better pay.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,054


    More Trump nominee nonsense.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,295

    So Trump was right then.

    People may despise the man, but they shouldn't think him stupid. He absolutely knew this info going into the press conference, and couldn't resist jumping the gun, which wasn't appropriate, but now he looks 'prescient', and those yelling at him have massive egg on their face.
    He was not right and he doesn't now look prescient. The issue was his unseemly haste to politicise this tragedy with speculative pigeon-speak ramblings as to what caused it. It showed (as if it needed more showing) his unfitness for the presidency.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    a
    Taz said:

    I have just said that. We do. Well South Tyneside and Sunderland Trust do.

    Probably something other trusts could do as well.
    I meant sending UK graduates to train in the Philippines. We have the bizarre situation that with a growing population, and growing NHS, we have a cap on the number of university places for medical studies. Based on having places for the graduates to train, afterwards.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    edited January 31

    Why not send UK grads there? The next bottleneck, after university, is training places in the UK.

    Which is a blocker to training more UK origin staff.
    Yes they need to think like the private sector, always look at the next block and work out how to deal with it.

    Imagine if they should study in the Philippines for $2,000 a year…
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    Icarus said:

    1. Highest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform. 30.25;18;30
    2. Lowest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform.25;18;10;20
    3. Number of Reform MPs on 31/12/2025. 5
    4. Number of Tory MP defectors to Reform in 2025. 0
    5. Number of Westminster by-elections held in 2025. 2
    6. Number of ministers to leave the Westminster cabinet during 2025. 3
    7. Number of seats won by the AfD in the May 2025 German Federal Election. 125
    8. UK CPI figure for November 2025 (Nov 2024 = 2.6%).1.9%
    9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2025 (Year to Nov 2024 = £113.2bn). £125bn
    10. UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2025 (Oct 23 to Oct 24 = 1.3%). 0.0%
    11. US growth annualised rate in Q3 2025 (Q3 2024 = 3.1%). 3.0%
    12. EU growth Q3 2024 to Q3 2025 (2024 = 1.0%). 0.0%
    13. USD/Ruble exchange rate at London FOREX close on 31/12/2025 (31/12/2024 = 114 USD/RUB). 85
    14. The result of the 2025-2026 Ashes series (2023 series: Drawn 2–2). 3-2 England

    Pssst. I think your 1 and 2 are already wrong. Get in quick with the edit button.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    Pulpstar said:

    The entire UK care license system is systematically abused and not fit for purpose. All sorts of articles from all sorts of angles on this.

    https://www.unseenuk.org/how-to-tackle-exploitation-of-migrant-care-workers-in-uk/

    https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2024-05-11/one-hell-to-another-thousands-of-care-workers-risk-deportation-after-employers-breach-rules/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14080785/Daily-Mail-journalist-honoured-expose-cash-care-jobs-scam.html

    Maybe a national care system would improve things, e.g. your Sunderland Trust/Manila relationship seems to work well.
    I read a story on SKY News about a man in his late forties who came over from Pakistan with his 4 children and his wife, paid over £10K to an "agency" for the pleasure and ended up over here with no job in the care sector working for the agency.

    It is hard not to have sympathy for people like this who have come here for a better life for him and for 5 economically inactive dependents only to have ended up out of pocket and in a job with the agency that got him here.

    It is a poor situation for the country, the taxpayer and the people brought over here as well as where do we house them all. The only beneficiaries are the care homes who get cheap labour with no accountability for the problems it causes.

    It is similar to this horrific story about Prison Wardens brought over from Nigeria, with family of course, only to realise accomodation was not also provided so some sleep in their cars, some sleep in the woods. In the middle of winter.

    https://www.pulse.ng/articles/news/local/nigerians-working-as-prison-officers-in-uk-sleep-in-their-cars-to-cut-housing-cost-2025011719550691054
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,961

    He wants the Trump bromance. So do Starmer, Lammy and Mandelson whilst they are in power.
    There's no doubt he's kissed the Trump ring (a phrase almost as discomfiting as 'that' photograph). Despite that Farage didn't get an invite to the Trump inauguration ceremony which suggests DJT doesn't see him as rich or influential enough. Of course Boris was there..
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    Sandpit said:

    Yes they need to think like the private sector, always look at the next block and work out how to deal with it.
    Good old constraint management. Been working on this approach since the early nineties.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907

    a

    I meant sending UK graduates to train in the Philippines. We have the bizarre situation that with a growing population, and growing NHS, we have a cap on the number of university places for medical studies. Based on having places for the graduates to train, afterwards.
    Ah, got you, yes, why not. It would make sense and give the graduates a great life experience to boot.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,257

    My better half is a senior sister in A&E, she says the nurses from the Philippines are far better trained than nurses from other countries, including the UK. The only issue is we eventually lose them to the US where they will get far better pay.
    Nice people, too, from the patients point of view.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,566

    Its worse than that, surely? That's the average.
    Come on, you can't honestly believe that is true? It's so obviously false. How could the average person working in social care have 10 dependents.

    Looking online, it's cherrypicked data from when there was a decline in visa applications due to new rules but a lag of dependent visas, the correct figure is <2 dependents per visa.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461

    My better half is a senior sister in A&E, she says the nurses from the Philippines are far better trained than nurses from other countries, including the UK. The only issue is we eventually lose them to the US where they will get far better pay.
    Hmmmmm.

    So how much would they charge for a foreigner to take a place at their training hospitals?

    Idea - send grads to the Philippines to be trained. Put the cost on the Overseas Aid budget.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,658

    How many of the following would Farage do:

    Blatantly lie about an election result
    Encourage his supporters to attack the police
    Encourage his supporters to hang his deputy
    Blame minorities for an air crash within hours of it happening
    Threaten to invade Greenland

    He is definitely unpleasant at times, likes a cheap shot, but that is true of plenty in all the established parties. He is closer to them than the likes of Trump.
    Agree. There are real problems with trying to place him - just like Corbyn and Trump only different. Was Corbyn a pro ordinary people socialist, or an anti Jewish supporter of our sworn enemies. Or both. or neither. Is Trump on the side of small town regular guy or at the head of a plutocratic gangster regime. Or both.

    Is Farage a 1950s social democrat + an extra dose of ultra cautious about inward migration or a fellow traveller with gangster plutocracy and warmongering dictators. Or both.

    Like OFSTED judgments, single word descriptions don't suffice.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    Taz said:

    Ah, got you, yes, why not. It would make sense and give the graduates a great life experience to boot.
    Cross cultural learning, deep immersion in other cultures, post colonial restitution... paying a developing country, doing real healthcare while there, making up for the strip mining of medical staff from such countries & establishing a real working relationship with the medical structures in that country, not just recruiting their staff.

    Sounds like DEI heaven, really.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    Taz said:

    Ah, got you, yes, why not. It would make sense and give the graduates a great life experience to boot.
    Dare I say it, but it might sort out somewhat the marriage problem in the UK. Because half of British men spending a couple of years in Manila would come back married.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907

    Nice people, too, from the patients point of view.
    My wife had nothing but praise for them in her time dealing with them both in the Phillipines and when they got to the UK. Rarely any bother and integrate superbly.

    Truly a really positive story for inward migration.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,712
    edited January 31
    kinabalu said:

    He was not right and he doesn't now look prescient. The issue was his unseemly haste to politicise this tragedy with speculative pigeon-speak ramblings as to what caused it. It showed (as if it needed more showing) his unfitness for the presidency.
    Hoover's Pilot Debrief on this is worth a watch:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzQe6W7vcu4

    He sticks to the facts, but it looks very much like most of the blame lies with the helicopter pilot or with the protocols in place. The helicopter pilot twice confirmed that he had the plane in sight, and was further told by ATC to pass behind the plane when they appeared to be on a possible collision course. I'm not sure what more ATC could have done in this situation.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    Sandpit said:

    Dare I say it, but it might sort out somewhat the marriage problem in the UK. Because half of British men spending a couple of years in Manila would come back married.
    Even though these men would be over twice the age of their wives :wink:
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,956
    Taz said:

    Ah, got you, yes, why not. It would make sense and give the graduates a great life experience to boot.
    Alternatively, stop nursing being a graduate level training, and go back to what it was in the good old days.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,376
    https://unherd.com/2025/01/are-we-hooked-on-atrocity-porn/

    From a Criminology lecturer at Kent, on Rudakubana.

    (Yes, it's on UnHerd, but don't hold that against it.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    Taz said:

    Even though these men would be over twice the age of their wives :wink:
    I hope not, if we’re talking mostly about the medical students and not the retired consultants doing their training!
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    ClippP said:

    Alternatively, stop nursing being a graduate level training, and go back to what it was in the good old days.
    Indeed


  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,143

    Hoover's Pilot Debrief on this is worth a watch:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzQe6W7vcu4

    He sticks to the facts, but it looks very much like most of the blame lies with the helicopter pilot or with the protocols in place. The helicopter pilot twice confirmed that he had the plane in sight, and was further told by ATC to pass behind the plane when they appeared to be on a possible collision course. I'm not sure what more ATC could have done in this situation.
    It seems he was talking about the wrong plane, so ATC could have tried to confirm it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    It seems he was talking about the wrong plane, so ATC could have tried to confirm it.
    If there were two nearly planes, and ATC could see all three aircraft on radar, then it’s a communication failure.

    “The conflict aircraft is at your 10 o’clock not your 2 o’clock” does the trick.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    ClippP said:

    Alternatively, stop nursing being a graduate level training, and go back to what it was in the good old days.
    Nursing requires combined academic/practical training.

    1) Do x years and get a certificate saying you have completed the basic nursing qualification and are ready for the wards.
    2) Do x years and get a degree certificate saying you have completed the basic nursing qualification and are ready for the wards.

    Hint - the cost/issues is not in calling it a degree.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,295

    There's no doubt he's kissed the Trump ring (a phrase almost as discomfiting as 'that' photograph). Despite that Farage didn't get an invite to the Trump inauguration ceremony which suggests DJT doesn't see him as rich or influential enough. Of course Boris was there..
    Yes I'm seeing that phrase a little too often for my liking. Can we not substitute with "genuflected in abject fashion" or something similar.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    edited January 31

    Cross cultural learning, deep immersion in other cultures, post colonial restitution... paying a developing country, doing real healthcare while there, making up for the strip mining of medical staff from such countries & establishing a real working relationship with the medical structures in that country, not just recruiting their staff.

    Sounds like DEI heaven, really.
    It's not the daftest idea Sandpit has had.
    Well worth working out the detail of how it might operate.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 849
    carnforth said:

    https://unherd.com/2025/01/are-we-hooked-on-atrocity-porn/

    From a Criminology lecturer at Kent, on Rudakubana.

    (Yes, it's on UnHerd, but don't hold that against it.)

    Not sure about the conclusion, that he was just evil all along, thought there was fairly strong evidence that people seek out more and more extreme content that excites them and that it transfers to their behaviour in real life.
    Can't imagine anyone sentient leaving their kids with one of those monkey-torture fans.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,666

    Luke Tryl
    @LukeTryl

    We tend to focus on individual polls which look interesting - but much more significant and easily missed - I think this is the first week when *every* poll released (from across 7 pollsters) has had the Reform ahead of the Conservatives.

    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1885272533269680266
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    edited January 31
    This is 100% down to Trump.

    AMFAR has published a report on how the foreign aid freeze affects PEPFAR, which actually still hasn't resumed.

    They estimate that hundreds of thousands of people lose access to HIV antivirals and 1500 babies are expected to contract HIV — *each day*

    https://x.com/salonium/status/1884847725298217131

    (Note, that's a daily average, assuming the program remains frozen for 90 days.
    If it's resumed fairly soon, then the damage is likely to be considerably less.)
This discussion has been closed.