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PB 2025 predicitions competition – final chance to enter – politicalbetting.com

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  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,666
    @timmarchman.bsky.social‬

    I'm very focused on the reporting we're doing at @wired.com and not on takes, but what I'm inferring from the reporting our reporters are doing is that in a very literal, not take-having sense, Elon Musk is the head of government while Donald Trump is the head of state.


    Donny is King, Elon is First Lord of the treasury...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,233
    edited January 31

    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    rcs1000 said:



    The pandemic showed just how few people understand data/statistics.

    My brother fell into the rabbit hole, and started posting rubbish about how 60% of the hospitalised with covid had already had the vaccine and it was therefore proof that the vaccine was ineffective (and indeed, made covid worse).

    In his head, it was 50:50, so if the stat was > 50%, it must be bad.
    I explained that with 95% of the UK population now vaccinated, far from proving that the vaccine didn't work, it proved it did.

    I set out his stats in real numbers (100 people in hospital out of 1000 population meant 60 out of 950 against 40 out of 50). He called me names, blocked me and continued his rant until Facebook banned him (they wouldn't now I suppose).
    I had a friend who did similar: he posted a link on Facebook to WHO death rates by country, and pointed out that there was no increase in death rates for 2020 and that proved Covid didn't really happen. "The evidence is always out there if you look", he stated.

    I pointed out that he'd shared the 2019 WHO report, which contained forecasts for 2020, and that we shouldn't be surprised it didn't include Covid (indeed, we should probably be relieved that it didn't include it!). I then passed him the correct report, which showed meaningful upticks in death rates, and asked him to share it and/or correct his earlier post.

    He blocked me.

    This was a guy I'd know for 15 years, and -while not a super close friend- I personally liked very much.

    It's scary how "the rabbit hole" fucks you up.
    This is also a great (awful?) example of how facts don’t work to counter radicalisation: People who have been radicalised don’t care about the actual facts - anything you say or external source you quote only ends up defining in their minds whether you’re on their side or against them.

    Sorry to hear you lost a friend to this madness, that must have been tough.
    I have a sister who swallowed the anti Vax conspiracy theory hook line and sinker. I found it very difficult to talk to her and to my shame I stopped discussing it with her. I'm not sure whether this is connected but she is is Refuk and refuses to pay the TV licence, hence no BBC or Itv news, only Facebook crap.
    Not a close friend by any means, but someone I have a few drinks with now again told me, at our last meeting that now now given up on BBC and ITN news and now relied upon GB News "because they told the truth".
    There were three of us in the conversation and when he left the two who remained just shook our heads sadly. Not sure if we'll seek his company again.
    Yes, it can be difficult but you have to be ruthless.
    I think we might well give it one more go. Keep him talking about cars.
    A relation's dad (in his 70s) got into making commentary via Youtube, and got himself into a loop where he got angrier and angrier.

    He only came out of it when he stopped, and went back to building copper steam engines for a hobby.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,920

    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    rcs1000 said:



    The pandemic showed just how few people understand data/statistics.

    My brother fell into the rabbit hole, and started posting rubbish about how 60% of the hospitalised with covid had already had the vaccine and it was therefore proof that the vaccine was ineffective (and indeed, made covid worse).

    In his head, it was 50:50, so if the stat was > 50%, it must be bad.
    I explained that with 95% of the UK population now vaccinated, far from proving that the vaccine didn't work, it proved it did.

    I set out his stats in real numbers (100 people in hospital out of 1000 population meant 60 out of 950 against 40 out of 50). He called me names, blocked me and continued his rant until Facebook banned him (they wouldn't now I suppose).
    I had a friend who did similar: he posted a link on Facebook to WHO death rates by country, and pointed out that there was no increase in death rates for 2020 and that proved Covid didn't really happen. "The evidence is always out there if you look", he stated.

    I pointed out that he'd shared the 2019 WHO report, which contained forecasts for 2020, and that we shouldn't be surprised it didn't include Covid (indeed, we should probably be relieved that it didn't include it!). I then passed him the correct report, which showed meaningful upticks in death rates, and asked him to share it and/or correct his earlier post.

    He blocked me.

    This was a guy I'd know for 15 years, and -while not a super close friend- I personally liked very much.

    It's scary how "the rabbit hole" fucks you up.
    This is also a great (awful?) example of how facts don’t work to counter radicalisation: People who have been radicalised don’t care about the actual facts - anything you say or external source you quote only ends up defining in their minds whether you’re on their side or against them.

    Sorry to hear you lost a friend to this madness, that must have been tough.
    I have a sister who swallowed the anti Vax conspiracy theory hook line and sinker. I found it very difficult to talk to her and to my shame I stopped discussing it with her. I'm not sure whether this is connected but she is is Refuk and refuses to pay the TV licence, hence no BBC or Itv news, only Facebook crap.
    Not a close friend by any means, but someone I have a few drinks with now again told me, at our last meeting that now now given up on BBC and ITN news and now relied upon GB News "because they told the truth".
    There were three of us in the conversation and when he left the two who remained just shook our heads sadly. Not sure if we'll seek his company again.
    Yes, it can be difficult but you have to be ruthless.
    I think we might well give it one more go. Keep him talking about cars.
    Yes ok. Good call. If he's been a pleasing companion over some years a 2nd chance is perhaps in order.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,850
    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    rcs1000 said:



    The pandemic showed just how few people understand data/statistics.

    My brother fell into the rabbit hole, and started posting rubbish about how 60% of the hospitalised with covid had already had the vaccine and it was therefore proof that the vaccine was ineffective (and indeed, made covid worse).

    In his head, it was 50:50, so if the stat was > 50%, it must be bad.
    I explained that with 95% of the UK population now vaccinated, far from proving that the vaccine didn't work, it proved it did.

    I set out his stats in real numbers (100 people in hospital out of 1000 population meant 60 out of 950 against 40 out of 50). He called me names, blocked me and continued his rant until Facebook banned him (they wouldn't now I suppose).
    I had a friend who did similar: he posted a link on Facebook to WHO death rates by country, and pointed out that there was no increase in death rates for 2020 and that proved Covid didn't really happen. "The evidence is always out there if you look", he stated.

    I pointed out that he'd shared the 2019 WHO report, which contained forecasts for 2020, and that we shouldn't be surprised it didn't include Covid (indeed, we should probably be relieved that it didn't include it!). I then passed him the correct report, which showed meaningful upticks in death rates, and asked him to share it and/or correct his earlier post.

    He blocked me.

    This was a guy I'd know for 15 years, and -while not a super close friend- I personally liked very much.

    It's scary how "the rabbit hole" fucks you up.
    This is also a great (awful?) example of how facts don’t work to counter radicalisation: People who have been radicalised don’t care about the actual facts - anything you say or external source you quote only ends up defining in their minds whether you’re on their side or against them.

    Sorry to hear you lost a friend to this madness, that must have been tough.
    I have a sister who swallowed the anti Vax conspiracy theory hook line and sinker. I found it very difficult to talk to her and to my shame I stopped discussing it with her. I'm not sure whether this is connected but she is is Refuk and refuses to pay the TV licence, hence no BBC or Itv news, only Facebook crap.
    Not a close friend by any means, but someone I have a few drinks with now again told me, at our last meeting that now now given up on BBC and ITN news and now relied upon GB News "because they told the truth".
    There were three of us in the conversation and when he left the two who remained just shook our heads sadly. Not sure if we'll seek his company again.
    Yes, it can be difficult but you have to be ruthless.
    I disagree. Have you read The Fencing Master, he dealt with this issue perfectly.

    Alongs they are not belligerent about it, or it’s the only thing they want bang on about - like certain PBers 😆 - then it’s just a phase they are going through. Everyone voted Blair and Cliton “third way” once, Boris got a landslide, not so long ago theres hordes out there who thought Corbyn was a genuine Messiah. Not only does it just go round and round, but when a herd moves it can happen all of a sudden.

    There’s a certain % of population you cannot say no to or tell them what to do, it will stick in their gut. So I see Gbeebies as being like sheep - when i shout at sheep go through the gate or go through the wide open door, they don’t, but soon as I shout don’t you dare go through that opening, I warning you, they start going through like magic 😌

    I could thrash Farage and Trump easily. All their voters really want is leaders with charisma, I would out charisma them.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,836
    MattW said:

    A couple of latest Trumps. Going to hell in a hand cart.

    1 - The Day Trump Became Unpresident (The Atlantic)
    https://archive.is/20250131033852/https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/01/trump-airplane-crash/681521/

    2 - The programme during Trump's first term from April 2019 to encourage disabled people to become Air Traffic Controllers:



    Archive:
    https://web.archive.org/web/20240118211942/https://faa.gov/newsroom/faa-provides-aviation-careers-people-disabilities

    (Seems to have vanished from the FAA website.)

    I wonder why it's no longer on the FAA website.

    I mean if you haven't noticed Trump lies almost every time he opens his mouth by now, a page on the FAA website isn't going to make much difference. Maybe the Trump administration is making a determined effort to completely rewrite history, kinda Stalinist.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,217
    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Just posting because @leon is here.

    Leon, You often boast that you are good at multi-tasking hence how you are able to make so many posts here, yet get on with your life. Specifically in one conversation with me you listed out about half a dozen tasks you were doing simultaneously. I was envious when you said that because I am useless at it.

    Anyway a few weeks ago I was listening to a newspaper review on Radio 4 and they read out the headline from the Daily or Sunday Star. It was:

    'Multitasking turns you into a Halfwit'

    Now, much as I respect the accuracy of the Star (Double Decker bus spotted on the moon and all that) I thought I would check and the internet is full of stuff confirming this. Just take Wikipedia as one of hundreds of articles: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_multitasking

    Terms like:

    Prone to errors, frequently inaccurate, worse at learning new information, inaccurate self perception at being good at it, difficult if not impossible to learn new information while multi tasking, predisposed to errors, etc.

    Does this explain @leon's posts I wonder?

    Interesting, I was half reading this whilst watching the cricket, thinking about the food shop, supposed to be working and checking whatsapp.
    But are you a halfwit?
    If one were, how would one know ?
    Good point. There are quite a few findings regarding people multi-tasking who thought they were good at it and weren't (an inaccurate self-perception). And of course there is the Dunning Kruger effect on top of that also regarding people who with limited knowledge think they know more than they do.

    I guess if you are a 'Halfwit', you probably don't know you are. Oh just had a worrying thought.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,233
    edited January 31
    Mexico, Canada tariffs starting up tomorrow, it seems:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg0m79gm10o
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,920
    edited January 31
    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    rcs1000 said:



    The pandemic showed just how few people understand data/statistics.

    My brother fell into the rabbit hole, and started posting rubbish about how 60% of the hospitalised with covid had already had the vaccine and it was therefore proof that the vaccine was ineffective (and indeed, made covid worse).

    In his head, it was 50:50, so if the stat was > 50%, it must be bad.
    I explained that with 95% of the UK population now vaccinated, far from proving that the vaccine didn't work, it proved it did.

    I set out his stats in real numbers (100 people in hospital out of 1000 population meant 60 out of 950 against 40 out of 50). He called me names, blocked me and continued his rant until Facebook banned him (they wouldn't now I suppose).
    I had a friend who did similar: he posted a link on Facebook to WHO death rates by country, and pointed out that there was no increase in death rates for 2020 and that proved Covid didn't really happen. "The evidence is always out there if you look", he stated.

    I pointed out that he'd shared the 2019 WHO report, which contained forecasts for 2020, and that we shouldn't be surprised it didn't include Covid (indeed, we should probably be relieved that it didn't include it!). I then passed him the correct report, which showed meaningful upticks in death rates, and asked him to share it and/or correct his earlier post.

    He blocked me.

    This was a guy I'd know for 15 years, and -while not a super close friend- I personally liked very much.

    It's scary how "the rabbit hole" fucks you up.
    This is also a great (awful?) example of how facts don’t work to counter radicalisation: People who have been radicalised don’t care about the actual facts - anything you say or external source you quote only ends up defining in their minds whether you’re on their side or against them.

    Sorry to hear you lost a friend to this madness, that must have been tough.
    I have a sister who swallowed the anti Vax conspiracy theory hook line and sinker. I found it very difficult to talk to her and to my shame I stopped discussing it with her. I'm not sure whether this is connected but she is is Refuk and refuses to pay the TV licence, hence no BBC or Itv news, only Facebook crap.
    Not a close friend by any means, but someone I have a few drinks with now again told me, at our last meeting that now now given up on BBC and ITN news and now relied upon GB News "because they told the truth".
    There were three of us in the conversation and when he left the two who remained just shook our heads sadly. Not sure if we'll seek his company again.
    Yes, it can be difficult but you have to be ruthless.
    A pity.
    Phil makes a good point downthread about deprogramming. The craziness of tge last ten years of both left and right has been brought about by too much time interacting online and not enough time in real life. I don't want to deligitimise the odder views people have, but they would find it harder to gain traction in a world in which we spent more time in human company.
    I give this place a partial exemption from that criticism because so much effort goes into challenging views expressed (though would note while we have a wide range of views represented here we're not really wholly representative).
    I think that's right actually. More flesh and blood and less digital would benefit most people. Not all, for some it's the opposite, but most.

    Eg me. The other day I was trying to argue with 4 people on here at once and I got het up and my neck started to ache. So I shut the screen and went to do something practical instead (the bins) and hey presto, everything was ok again.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,474

    I referenced yesterday that my wife is producing a biopic about Marianne Faithfull. As well as getting an actress who can portray the various facets of Marianne, the biggest question she was asked is: "how the hell do you get your Mick Jagger?"

    I've just watched a nine-minute edit of a "guerilla shoot", done a couple of weekends back. And it is extraordinary. Watching Mick teach Marianne "As tears go by" is like documentary footage. Uncanny doesn't remotely do it justice. Him actually playing and singing "Wild Horses" is jaw-dropping. (It helps that the actor has his own band. But man, he moves like Jagger.)

    If the teaser gets released for Berlin, I'll post a link.

    My mate's uncle was married to Marianne Faithfull in the 80s. Saw a pic from their wedding earlier today. Still looks incongruous.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,156
    USN will be switching to drones for in flight refuelling from its carriers, starting next year.

    https://news.usni.org/2025/01/29/mq-25a-stingray-2026-debut-will-unlock-unmanned-aviation-for-carrier-strike-group-say-officials
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 796
    R4 PM just gave the friendliest soft-ball interview to the AfD leader possible. Allowed him to describe themselves as moderate conservatives
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,920

    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    rcs1000 said:



    The pandemic showed just how few people understand data/statistics.

    My brother fell into the rabbit hole, and started posting rubbish about how 60% of the hospitalised with covid had already had the vaccine and it was therefore proof that the vaccine was ineffective (and indeed, made covid worse).

    In his head, it was 50:50, so if the stat was > 50%, it must be bad.
    I explained that with 95% of the UK population now vaccinated, far from proving that the vaccine didn't work, it proved it did.

    I set out his stats in real numbers (100 people in hospital out of 1000 population meant 60 out of 950 against 40 out of 50). He called me names, blocked me and continued his rant until Facebook banned him (they wouldn't now I suppose).
    I had a friend who did similar: he posted a link on Facebook to WHO death rates by country, and pointed out that there was no increase in death rates for 2020 and that proved Covid didn't really happen. "The evidence is always out there if you look", he stated.

    I pointed out that he'd shared the 2019 WHO report, which contained forecasts for 2020, and that we shouldn't be surprised it didn't include Covid (indeed, we should probably be relieved that it didn't include it!). I then passed him the correct report, which showed meaningful upticks in death rates, and asked him to share it and/or correct his earlier post.

    He blocked me.

    This was a guy I'd know for 15 years, and -while not a super close friend- I personally liked very much.

    It's scary how "the rabbit hole" fucks you up.
    This is also a great (awful?) example of how facts don’t work to counter radicalisation: People who have been radicalised don’t care about the actual facts - anything you say or external source you quote only ends up defining in their minds whether you’re on their side or against them.

    Sorry to hear you lost a friend to this madness, that must have been tough.
    I have a sister who swallowed the anti Vax conspiracy theory hook line and sinker. I found it very difficult to talk to her and to my shame I stopped discussing it with her. I'm not sure whether this is connected but she is is Refuk and refuses to pay the TV licence, hence no BBC or Itv news, only Facebook crap.
    Not a close friend by any means, but someone I have a few drinks with now again told me, at our last meeting that now now given up on BBC and ITN news and now relied upon GB News "because they told the truth".
    There were three of us in the conversation and when he left the two who remained just shook our heads sadly. Not sure if we'll seek his company again.
    Yes, it can be difficult but you have to be ruthless.
    I disagree. Have you read The Fencing Master, he dealt with this issue perfectly.

    Alongs they are not belligerent about it, or it’s the only thing they want bang on about - like certain PBers 😆 - then it’s just a phase they are going through. Everyone voted Blair and Cliton “third way” once, Boris got a landslide, not so long ago theres hordes out there who thought Corbyn was a genuine Messiah. Not only does it just go round and round, but when a herd moves it can happen all of a sudden.

    There’s a certain % of population you cannot say no to or tell them what to do, it will stick in their gut. So I see Gbeebies as being like sheep - when i shout at sheep go through the gate or go through the wide open door, they don’t, but soon as I shout don’t you dare go through that opening, I warning you, they start going through like magic 😌

    I could thrash Farage and Trump easily. All their voters really want is leaders with charisma, I would out charisma them.
    I don't doubt it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,533
    Another major blow to our economy and production: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1we943zez9o

    AstraZeneca have cancelled a £450 investment after a cut in the level of support promised by the previous government. I have no feel for the numbers and there is clearly a limit to the level of support we can give but we really, really need to make more things in this country; we need to create more skilled and technical jobs and we need to try and have some investment outside London and the South East.

    Investments like this lead to things like growth. I thought that is what Reeves was looking for.

  • Competition

    The Questions:
    1. Highest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform. Lab 33, Con 29, LD 16, Ref 31
    2. Lowest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform. Lab 20, Con 18, LD 8, Ref 19
    3. Number of Reform MPs on 31/12/2025. 8
    4. Number of Tory MP defectors to Reform in 2025. 2
    5. Number of Westminster by-elections held in 2025. 6
    6. Number of ministers to leave the Westminster cabinet during 2025. 5
    7. Number of seats won by the AfD in the May 2025 German Federal Election. 125
    8. UK CPI figure for November 2025 (Nov 2024 = 2.6%). 2.2%
    9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2025 (Year to Nov 2024 = £113.2bn). £119bn
    10. UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2025 (Oct 23 to Oct 24 = 1.3%). 1.4%
    11. US growth annualised rate in Q3 2025 (Q3 2024 = 3.1%). 2.9%
    12. EU growth Q3 2024 to Q3 2025 (2024 = 1.0%). 0.8%
    13. USD/Ruble exchange rate at London FOREX close on 31/12/2025 (31/12/2024 = 114 USD/RUB). 124
    14. The result of the 2025-2026 Ashes series (2023 series: Drawn 2–2). Australia win 4-1

  • kjh said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Just posting because @leon is here.

    Leon, You often boast that you are good at multi-tasking hence how you are able to make so many posts here, yet get on with your life. Specifically in one conversation with me you listed out about half a dozen tasks you were doing simultaneously. I was envious when you said that because I am useless at it.

    Anyway a few weeks ago I was listening to a newspaper review on Radio 4 and they read out the headline from the Daily or Sunday Star. It was:

    'Multitasking turns you into a Halfwit'

    Now, much as I respect the accuracy of the Star (Double Decker bus spotted on the moon and all that) I thought I would check and the internet is full of stuff confirming this. Just take Wikipedia as one of hundreds of articles: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_multitasking

    Terms like:

    Prone to errors, frequently inaccurate, worse at learning new information, inaccurate self perception at being good at it, difficult if not impossible to learn new information while multi tasking, predisposed to errors, etc.

    Does this explain @leon's posts I wonder?

    Interesting, I was half reading this whilst watching the cricket, thinking about the food shop, supposed to be working and checking whatsapp.
    But are you a halfwit?
    If one were, how would one know ?
    Good point. There are quite a few findings regarding people multi-tasking who thought they were good at it and weren't (an inaccurate self-perception). And of course there is the Dunning Kruger effect on top of that also regarding people who with limited knowledge think they know more than they do.

    I guess if you are a 'Halfwit', you probably don't know you are. Oh just had a worrying thought.
    It's notoriously difficult to judge one's own competence. If you actually want to know how competent you are in any particular area, the best approach is probably to find out what the people who know you think.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,237
    DavidL said:

    Another major blow to our economy and production: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1we943zez9o

    AstraZeneca have cancelled a £450 investment after a cut in the level of support promised by the previous government. I have no feel for the numbers and there is clearly a limit to the level of support we can give but we really, really need to make more things in this country; we need to create more skilled and technical jobs and we need to try and have some investment outside London and the South East.

    Investments like this lead to things like growth. I thought that is what Reeves was looking for.

    That's currently the no. 1 read story on the BBC News website.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,619
    edited January 31
    DavidL said:

    Another major blow to our economy and production: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1we943zez9o

    AstraZeneca have cancelled a £450 investment after a cut in the level of support promised by the previous government. I have no feel for the numbers and there is clearly a limit to the level of support we can give but we really, really need to make more things in this country; we need to create more skilled and technical jobs and we need to try and have some investment outside London and the South East.

    Investments like this lead to things like growth. I thought that is what Reeves was looking for.

    To be honest, you’d have thought they would stretch to at least a Grand. £450 seems miserly.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,619
    Nigelb said:

    USN will be switching to drones for in flight refuelling from its carriers, starting next year.

    https://news.usni.org/2025/01/29/mq-25a-stingray-2026-debut-will-unlock-unmanned-aviation-for-carrier-strike-group-say-officials

    If that’s short take off, the RN needs to pounce. If we’re going to have small air groups we might as well have them long range and persistent.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,474
    DavidL said:

    Another major blow to our economy and production: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1we943zez9o

    AstraZeneca have cancelled a £450 investment after a cut in the level of support promised by the previous government. I have no feel for the numbers and there is clearly a limit to the level of support we can give but we really, really need to make more things in this country; we need to create more skilled and technical jobs and we need to try and have some investment outside London and the South East.

    Investments like this lead to things like growth. I thought that is what Reeves was looking for.

    Talking to my public sector counterparts this week elsewhere in the North, the feeling is very much that the new government is reverting to type and funnelling investment back to the south east.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,619
    Cookie said:

    DavidL said:

    Another major blow to our economy and production: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1we943zez9o

    AstraZeneca have cancelled a £450 investment after a cut in the level of support promised by the previous government. I have no feel for the numbers and there is clearly a limit to the level of support we can give but we really, really need to make more things in this country; we need to create more skilled and technical jobs and we need to try and have some investment outside London and the South East.

    Investments like this lead to things like growth. I thought that is what Reeves was looking for.

    Talking to my public sector counterparts this week elsewhere in the North, the feeling is very much that the new government is reverting to type and funnelling investment back to the south east.
    And the Reform Levelling Up policy gets announced in 3, 2, 1….
  • NEW THREAD

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,999

    I referenced yesterday that my wife is producing a biopic about Marianne Faithfull. As well as getting an actress who can portray the various facets of Marianne, the biggest question she was asked is: "how the hell do you get your Mick Jagger?"

    I've just watched a nine-minute edit of a "guerilla shoot", done a couple of weekends back. And it is extraordinary. Watching Mick teach Marianne "As tears go by" is like documentary footage. Uncanny doesn't remotely do it justice. Him actually playing and singing "Wild Horses" is jaw-dropping. (It helps that the actor has his own band. But man, he moves like Jagger.)

    If the teaser gets released for Berlin, I'll post a link.

    Has the Mars bar been cast yet?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,445
    biggles said:

    Nigelb said:

    USN will be switching to drones for in flight refuelling from its carriers, starting next year.

    https://news.usni.org/2025/01/29/mq-25a-stingray-2026-debut-will-unlock-unmanned-aviation-for-carrier-strike-group-say-officials

    If that’s short take off, the RN needs to pounce. If we’re going to have small air groups we might as well have them long range and persistent.
    Nut sure it can, as the Queen Elizabeth II carrier flight deck is only 280m long. It's very short for anything other than helos and V/STOL aircraft. I don't think a stingray could take off or land in that distance.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,915
    viewcode said:

    biggles said:

    Nigelb said:

    USN will be switching to drones for in flight refuelling from its carriers, starting next year.

    https://news.usni.org/2025/01/29/mq-25a-stingray-2026-debut-will-unlock-unmanned-aviation-for-carrier-strike-group-say-officials

    If that’s short take off, the RN needs to pounce. If we’re going to have small air groups we might as well have them long range and persistent.
    Nut sure it can, as the Queen Elizabeth II carrier flight deck is only 280m long. It's very short for anything other than helos and V/STOL aircraft. I don't think a stingray could take off or land in that distance.
    Billy Mitchell flew his B-25s off a flight deck much shorter than that!
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,448
    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    rcs1000 said:



    The pandemic showed just how few people understand data/statistics.

    My brother fell into the rabbit hole, and started posting rubbish about how 60% of the hospitalised with covid had already had the vaccine and it was therefore proof that the vaccine was ineffective (and indeed, made covid worse).

    In his head, it was 50:50, so if the stat was > 50%, it must be bad.
    I explained that with 95% of the UK population now vaccinated, far from proving that the vaccine didn't work, it proved it did.

    I set out his stats in real numbers (100 people in hospital out of 1000 population meant 60 out of 950 against 40 out of 50). He called me names, blocked me and continued his rant until Facebook banned him (they wouldn't now I suppose).
    I had a friend who did similar: he posted a link on Facebook to WHO death rates by country, and pointed out that there was no increase in death rates for 2020 and that proved Covid didn't really happen. "The evidence is always out there if you look", he stated.

    I pointed out that he'd shared the 2019 WHO report, which contained forecasts for 2020, and that we shouldn't be surprised it didn't include Covid (indeed, we should probably be relieved that it didn't include it!). I then passed him the correct report, which showed meaningful upticks in death rates, and asked him to share it and/or correct his earlier post.

    He blocked me.

    This was a guy I'd know for 15 years, and -while not a super close friend- I personally liked very much.

    It's scary how "the rabbit hole" fucks you up.
    This is also a great (awful?) example of how facts don’t work to counter radicalisation: People who have been radicalised don’t care about the actual facts - anything you say or external source you quote only ends up defining in their minds whether you’re on their side or against them.

    Sorry to hear you lost a friend to this madness, that must have been tough.
    I have a sister who swallowed the anti Vax conspiracy theory hook line and sinker. I found it very difficult to talk to her and to my shame I stopped discussing it with her. I'm not sure whether this is connected but she is is Refuk and refuses to pay the TV licence, hence no BBC or Itv news, only Facebook crap.
    Not a close friend by any means, but someone I have a few drinks with now again told me, at our last meeting that now now given up on BBC and ITN news and now relied upon GB News "because they told the truth".
    There were three of us in the conversation and when he left the two who remained just shook our heads sadly. Not sure if we'll seek his company again.
    Yes, it can be difficult but you have to be ruthless.
    I think we might well give it one more go. Keep him talking about cars.
    A relation's dad (in his 70s) got into making commentary via Youtube, and got himself into a loop where he got angrier and angrier.

    He only came out of it when he stopped, and went back to building copper steam engines for a hobby.
    This thread is depressing but also so on the money.

    I spent about a year or so during the pandemic communicating with a very good friend who had moved back to Serbia and had gone full Musk fanboi, with a side order of Russell Brand.

    The point upthread about facts not countering radicalisation is so true - he loved Musk for his free speech absolutism and started the year-long exchange saying he was worried I was going to cancel him on some sort of woke crusade, then after a year said he could no longer be my friend because I kept sending him examples of Musk's rank hypocrisy (and also I was condoning the murder of innocent people in Ukraine by not calling for an immediate ceasefire.)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,850
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Sean_F said:

    What exactly *is* the immigration legislation being proposed by Merz?

    It's just been rejected in parliament
    I'm not sure why, as the parties who said they would vote for should have had a majority.
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    What exactly *is* the immigration legislation being proposed by Merz?

    It's a five point plan:

    - Permanent border checks
    - The rejection of all asylum applications lodged by migrants who arrive in Germany using irregular means
    - Detention of all foreigners who have exhausted their appeals against deportation
    - More support and funds to be made available to Laender for deportations
    - Tightening of laws against criminal foreigners or those deemed to be a risk to society
    That does not seem outrageous.
    Apart from it having a few legal issues:

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-conservatives-immigration-legal-issues/a-71444511


    It seems it was rejected because enough CDU representatives had an issue with allying themselves with actual fascists
    So the message to the electorate is that if you want such laws, you need to vote AfD.
    Yes

    This is actually quite calamitous for the left in Germany
    How do you come to that conclusion when it’s the head of CDU putting the “ if you want such laws, you need to vote AfD” message out there? His own party torpedoed it.

    The Art of Politics often comes down to the moment you chose to put something to a vote, and that equates to all the legwork behind the scenes for weeks and months working to the moment. But how CDU have been conducting it seems back of fag packet, spur of moment decision making. And this might actually play out quite calamitous for the Centre Right in Germany. 😕
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    l

    Taz said:

    A tenth of British Farmland to be repurposed for net zero

    Solar farms, tree planting and wildlife habitats to replace food production.

    Meanwhile from 2022 to 2032 our population will grow by 5 Million people.

    ‘Brutal Budget has hurt farming’
    Tom Bradshaw, president of the NFU, said it was “imperative this framework does not further restrict farmers’ ability to produce the nation’s food”.
    “Over the past 18 months, the UK farming industry has taken a battering,” he said. “Volatile input costs, commodity prices on the floor in some sectors, a reduction in direct payments, one of the wettest periods in decades, and a brutal Budget delivered by this Government. All have left their mark and have put homegrown food production under serious pressure.”
    The Government believes food production can be largely maintained at current levels by focusing on removing only the least productive land. About 20 per cent of England’s farmed land produces just 3 per cent of total calories, in areas where subsidies have historically accounted for 90 per cent of farm incomes.


    https://archive.ph/CXjt0

    It's disgusting, and should and will be reversed.
    Farmers getting 90% of their income from subsidies is totally disgusting.

    Any other industry, and they'd have been shut down decades ago by the Thatcher government.
    Well apart from the public sector which also gets its funding from the government.

    Which is effectively what managing unprofitable land use is in this country.

    The farmers are being funded so that tourists can see sheep in fields surrounded by dry stone walls.

    Whether having Upper Swaledale so covered is a good idea is open for debate.
    “The farmers are being funded so that tourists can see sheep in fields surrounded by dry stone walls.”

    I’m getting more sheep, and it’s not for benefit of tourists, but the UK food chain because I believe in eat local. We don’t get any tourists driving past taking pictures of sheep.

    Nor is for the love of sheep - though maybe I should phrase it different than that. Sheep are boring. They are also weird and stupid, like they give birth and stand there stunned sometimes doing nothing like they didn’t even know they were pregnant or a clue what’s happening or want any part in parenting. 🐑🤦‍♀️
    I'm going to try and calculate what proportion of UK calorie consumption is British lamb & mutton. I'd guess 0.5%.
    Why is it so hard to buy mutton or hogget these days? They are even more tasty than lamb, if cooked correctly.
    I have to go to Jesmond Dene market they hold on a bridge over the Dene to get it. It’s smashing. Not even the local farm shops stock it.
    Do they sell it at Hexham Farmers’ Market, do you know?
    Sorry, I don’t. Not been to it I’m afraid. If we’re that neck of the woods we usually go to Brockbushes.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    rcs1000 said:



    The pandemic showed just how few people understand data/statistics.

    My brother fell into the rabbit hole, and started posting rubbish about how 60% of the hospitalised with covid had already had the vaccine and it was therefore proof that the vaccine was ineffective (and indeed, made covid worse).

    In his head, it was 50:50, so if the stat was > 50%, it must be bad.
    I explained that with 95% of the UK population now vaccinated, far from proving that the vaccine didn't work, it proved it did.

    I set out his stats in real numbers (100 people in hospital out of 1000 population meant 60 out of 950 against 40 out of 50). He called me names, blocked me and continued his rant until Facebook banned him (they wouldn't now I suppose).
    I had a friend who did similar: he posted a link on Facebook to WHO death rates by country, and pointed out that there was no increase in death rates for 2020 and that proved Covid didn't really happen. "The evidence is always out there if you look", he stated.

    I pointed out that he'd shared the 2019 WHO report, which contained forecasts for 2020, and that we shouldn't be surprised it didn't include Covid (indeed, we should probably be relieved that it didn't include it!). I then passed him the correct report, which showed meaningful upticks in death rates, and asked him to share it and/or correct his earlier post.

    He blocked me.

    This was a guy I'd know for 15 years, and -while not a super close friend- I personally liked very much.

    It's scary how "the rabbit hole" fucks you up.
    This is also a great (awful?) example of how facts don’t work to counter radicalisation: People who have been radicalised don’t care about the actual facts - anything you say or external source you quote only ends up defining in their minds whether you’re on their side or against them.

    Sorry to hear you lost a friend to this madness, that must have been tough.
    I have a sister who swallowed the anti Vax conspiracy theory hook line and sinker. I found it very difficult to talk to her and to my shame I stopped discussing it with her. I'm not sure whether this is connected but she is is Refuk and refuses to pay the TV licence, hence no BBC or Itv news, only Facebook crap.
    Not a close friend by any means, but someone I have a few drinks with now again told me, at our last meeting that now now given up on BBC and ITN news and now relied upon GB News "because they told the truth".
    There were three of us in the conversation and when he left the two who remained just shook our heads sadly. Not sure if we'll seek his company again.
    Yes, it can be difficult but you have to be ruthless.
    My brother in law went down the anti vax rabbit hole. I remember him proudly telling us he got a guy thrown out of Aldi who told him he should be wearing a mask when they weren’t compulsory.

    He and my sister are now divorced but, apparently, he still posts this stuff online.
This discussion has been closed.