Brexit, the UK’s prohibition era? – politicalbetting.com

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:

kamski said:

Leon said:

Dopermean said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

We will never Rejoin because it will never be worth any UK government expending the political capital required (and this is setting aside problems like the euro, Schenghen, a decade of negotiation, fisheries, migration, possible veto by any one of 27 EU nations)

Think about it. Why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing well and you're high in the polls? You wouldn't take the risk, referendums are horribly risky, pointless

But then, why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing badly and everyone hates you, again you are simply offering the voters a chance to give you a kicking and vote against anything you desire

The only way we might Rejoin is if we are literally starving to death and some national coalition proposes it as the only solution, but then the Europeans will surely veto us as a basket case that will drag down the EU economy

We are never going to Rejoin. It is not practical politics in the real world. Better to accept it

I think this looked to be true pre-Trump, and pre the time when Trumpism might shape the USA for the long term. I don't think it looks certain now.

Why? I know TRIP, the Rory and Campbell show, is not universally popular but the most recent discussion is pretty chilling on the evidence for the direction the USA is going in

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0fdoOxkN4o

Rory fucking Stewart is a fucking imbecile. Really. Alistair Campbell is a depressed alcoholic with a huge guilt trip about Iraq. Together they have the political acuity of a cheese toastie

However, I said 95% certain we won't rejoin and not 100% because, black swans

A massive world war, or the USA become a hostile dictatorship would indeed be a very black swan and easily enough to see us back in the EU (and there would probably be even greater sequelae)

But, I don't any of these as more than 5% possibilities, combined

Point taken, though it is possible to miss the wood for your ad hominem trees. (And Rory was my MP, and I wish he still was, and he is genuinely interesting. They are both, in TS Eliot's words 'wounded surgeons').

In probabilities, I think the chance of straight Rejoin EU is fairly small, but the chance (say in the next generation) of some sort of deal, the Switzerland or Norway sort, is more like 30%.

Additionally, the chances of America ceasing to be an active ally and turning its attention away from Europe and NATO are not negligible. Wait and see. We are only 10 days in to the new reality.

Their analysis of Trump (I just watched ten minutes of it) is on the level of a quite bright sixth former. I am regularly astonished by the way apparently clever people - such as you - buy this intellectual pap tricked out as powerful insight

Says the guy who voted for Starmer.

I'm watching more of it now, it's pure midwittery and entirely shite

Stewart has just said "Trump is calling for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza" which is such a ridiculous misreading it is either a deliberate lie OR more evidence that they really are quite dim

Trump thinks outside the box. He is saying "maybe the Gazans would be better off giving up on their shit lives in Gaza and having a much richer, more peaceful life elsewhere". And, of course, Trump has a very good point. Hamas wants the Palestinians trapped in Gaza forever, their misery endless, their suffering a constant source of grevance and militancy - because we all know Israel will never agree to a 2 state solution, not now

And yet Trump saying "Hey here's a better choice for Gazans than the endless pain that Hamas offers" is somehow Trump calling for ethnic cleansing?! According to Rory "wow who knew immigration was so high" Stewart?

Enuff. Only idiots are taken in by this pabulum. I am disappointed @algarkirk is one of them

I know two otherwise-sensible people who have paid actual money to see Stewart and Campbell in a theatre.

Destroying a region's infrastructure, blocking supplies and encouraging the inhabitants to seek refuge elsewhere so that other people (of a different ethnicity) can move in and build their own homes and infrastructure funded by government isn't ethnic cleansing?
He may not be directly calling for it but he is tacitly supporting it.

Trump is offering a better future for Gazans than Hamas or the Palestinian Authority are offering. Its realpolitik

Also, it's not like this is some unprecedented evil; deliberate population movements - to solve intractable problems - happen all the time. Greeks and Turks after WW1, Muslims and Hindus at Partition, Germans after WW2, and many others

The alternative is that the Palestinians continue to squat there in perpetual misery because

1. Israel now won't ever yield to a two state solution

and

2. The Palestinians cannot defeat Israel, and nor can anyone else without nuking them (and getting nuked in return) and thereby rendering the entire Levant uninhabitable for 20,000 years

What wonderful examples of things that aren't 'ethnic cleansing'. Idiot.

Which is why I called it a “ridiculous misreading” of Trump

I mean, go ahead and call it “ethnic cleansing” if you want, that enables you to ignore the fact it’s actually an imaginative and humane solution to this hideous 70 year nightmare

In an ideal world Israelis would get over October 7 and ask for 2 states and Gazans would not be enraged anti Semites. But this is not an ideal world, and Trump has bruited the only possible solution that might make Palestinian lives a lot better and fast while giving Israel security

You and Trump may well be right, and this might be what happens. But as a thought experiment, post the same suggestion in reverse – that Israelis should abandon the Middle East and move en masse to set up a new state in America – and you will be cancelled for antisemitism. And that is what is wrong with Trump's idea.

The shoulder shrugging about Gaza and ideas like this from Trump rest on the belief that Palestinians are not 'proper people'.

Quite the opposite. It’s addressing them as human beings who want a life beyond eternal squalor poverty and martyrdom for Hamas

Yes it’s unideal for them. But it is the only idea out there that might radically improve their lives and in short order

Alternatively you can suggest your idea

I don't have anything new and wacky, I'm afraid. Boring old goal of a free and sovereign Palestine co-existing peacefully with Israel. It's never looked further off but it remains the only long-term sustainable outcome.

There you go. What you want is not achievable for Palestine. Maybe it was once but not any more. But it makes you feel better to trot out this vapid bilge

So the guy actually giving Palestinians a decent humane alternative to death, misery and squalor is Donald Trump. Not you. Think about that

You do adore that great big powerful man, don't you.

And to think you were rooting for him to lose on Nov 5th! I wonder if there's a touch of guilt-driven overcompensation going on now - like what happened with Owen Jones and Jezza after GE17.

Yes I rather think we might be onto something there.

Leon is right - 'clean' Gaza of Palestinians and give it to Israel, and 'clean' the West Bank of illegal Israeli settlers and that's your Palestinian state. After that they can 'peacefully coexist' or build a massive wall, up to them.

-To

Taz said:

MattW said:

Taz said:

Sandpit said:

Taz said:

MattW said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

We will never Rejoin because it will never be worth any UK government expending the political capital required (and this is setting aside problems like the euro, Schenghen, a decade of negotiation, fisheries, migration, possible veto by any one of 27 EU nations)

Think about it. Why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing well and you're high in the polls? You wouldn't take the risk, referendums are horribly risky, pointless

But then, why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing badly and everyone hates you, again you are simply offering the voters a chance to give you a kicking and vote against anything you desire

The only way we might Rejoin is if we are literally starving to death and some national coalition proposes it as the only solution, but then the Europeans will surely veto us as a basket case that will drag down the EU economy

We are never going to Rejoin. It is not practical politics in the real world. Better to accept it

I think this looked to be true pre-Trump, and pre the time when Trumpism might shape the USA for the long term. I don't think it looks certain now.

Why? I know TRIP, the Rory and Campbell show, is not universally popular but the most recent discussion is pretty chilling on the evidence for the direction the USA is going in

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0fdoOxkN4o

Rory fucking Stewart is a fucking imbecile. Really. Alistair Campbell is a depressed alcoholic with a huge guilt trip about Iraq. Together they have the political acuity of a cheese toastie

However, I said 95% certain we won't rejoin and not 100% because, black swans

A massive world war, or the USA become a hostile dictatorship would indeed be a very black swan and easily enough to see us back in the EU (and there would probably be even greater sequelae)

But, I don't any of these as more than 5% possibilities, combined

Point taken, though it is possible to miss the wood for your ad hominem trees. (And Rory was my MP, and I wish he still was, and he is genuinely interesting. They are both, in TS Eliot's words 'wounded surgeons').

In probabilities, I think the chance of straight Rejoin EU is fairly small, but the chance (say in the next generation) of some sort of deal, the Switzerland or Norway sort, is more like 30%.

Additionally, the chances of America ceasing to be an active ally and turning its attention away from Europe and NATO are not negligible. Wait and see. We are only 10 days in to the new reality.

Their analysis of Trump (I just watched ten minutes of it) is on the level of a quite bright sixth former. I am regularly astonished by the way apparently clever people - such as you - buy this intellectual pap tricked out as powerful insight

Says the guy who voted for Starmer.

I'm watching more of it now, it's pure midwittery and entirely shite

Stewart has just said "Trump is calling for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza" which is such a ridiculous misreading it is either a deliberate lie OR more evidence that they really are quite dim

Trump thinks outside the box. He is saying "maybe the Gazans would be better off giving up on their shit lives in Gaza and having a much richer, more peaceful life elsewhere". And, of course, Trump has a very good point. Hamas wants the Palestinians trapped in Gaza forever, their misery endless, their suffering a constant source of grevance and militancy - because we all know Israel will never agree to a 2 state solution, not now

And yet Trump saying "Hey here's a better choice for Gazans than the endless pain that Hamas offers" is somehow Trump calling for ethnic cleansing?! According to Rory "wow who knew immigration was so high" Stewart?

Enuff. Only idiots are taken in by this pabulum. I am disappointed @algarkirk is one of them

I know two otherwise-sensible people who have paid actual money to see Stewart and Campbell in a theatre.

I'd be more likely to go and hear Bad Al and Rory the Tory than I would say the News Agents.

I know that in some areas they have significant specialist and personal knowledge beyond what I have, whereas Maitlis, Lewis Goodall et al seem to be repeating fairly general current affairs stuff I was aware of a fortnight previously.

The News Agents are more like a "Portrait of the Week" column, with relatively little depth.

I'm more questioning of the format than the quality.

People are paying £40 or so a time to go and see these three twats sit on stage and pontificate in theatres. They have just announced another three "gigs" so they must have some sort of appeal/fan base for their generic bland centrist Dad chatting.

1,000 tickets at £40 each, minus a couple of grand in room hire and staging. Not a bad gig if you can get it.

Not bad at all especially when you consider it is just 3 people sitting in a chair talking so would have far fewer overheads than a musical or play where you have a full cast plus many people behind the scenes.

No wonder people go into Podcasting. If you can make it work you can make a good living.

It seems to be mainly the centrists and the left in the UK dominating. The US seems to be more spread across the political range.

Mind you I would guess if GB News looked to do this the online left wing activists would bombard all of the venues with demands the shows are not held and the shows would not be allowed to go ahead.

The Right / Far Right tend to have larger Youtube followings - eg Mahar Tousi, Black Belt Barrister are both up around 750k.

Live shows tend to be more like the Tommy Robinson demonstration.

Are there any former Tory pols who have done anything live, such as Fizzy Lizzy? Or perhaps they think it beneath them?

Is Black Belt Barrister far right ?

I used to watch his videos a year or so ago and he was interesting but apolotical. It was matters of law he commented on. Mundane stuff. Private Parking, TV License, Close pass cycling etc etc.

Let me try a serious reply here.

I've seen the categorisation by some, and I'm half and half in my view. He's definitely not a Tommy Robinson or a Mark Collett - but they are beyond far right, and arguably neo-Nazi. But I think I can credibly line him up alongside some of the GB News types or Telegraph types - I am happy to describe some of those as on the far right; your perspective may differ.

He's gone very populist chasing viewers, and his comments are full of the same stuff as my local Reform forums.

Of his last 20 videos, about 75% feature Keir Starmer, and 2 feature TV licensing. And a couple feature the Southport killer. *

The themes he features track the populist right eg even BBC, TV License fall within that orbit (see Lee Anderson's pantomime ripping up of TVL letters on the conference platform for example), and have as far as I can count the same disproportionate focus on Muslims (eg Manc Airport), immigrants, dots and tittles about the Govt not acknowledging the wider context of legal process sometimes.

But it is not acknowledged as that focus afaics, and he projects himself normally as a "barrister explaining the law objectively", and at other times "expressing my opinions".

It's a similar stat with GBN and Muslims / immigrants - they deliberately seek out such stories to overemphasise them and remove nuance, to the extent that GBN are responsible for half of all the stories about Muslims for UK News channels. **

IMO he's likely to be deep enough into politics , and with enough "barrister" / "politics" confusion that the Law Society would not be happy with him if someone pointed it out to them in a complaint.

Is that Far Right? And which version of Far Right? We make our own judgements. I'd say his selection and presentation panders that way and to that audience, but I do not have enough information about BBB himself to judge his views. I think he's part of the mainstreaming-the-far-right process.

The selection and themes are somewhere walking the line, but he may be chasing viewers and money (he has been really strong on wanting the £50 commission from Electrical Switchers) and finding that is currently a responsive segment.

For the site, I need to make clear that this is my opinion.

* https://www.youtube.com/@BlackBeltBarrister/videos
** https://cfmm.org.uk/gbnews-report-2024/

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

There is a subsection of lefty opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that actively WANTS Palestinian suffering to continue, as it gives them an orgasmically satisfying reason to hate Jews/israel/America/the west/the man

If all the Palestinians abruptly moved to luxury condos in Jakarta and stopped suffering these people would be thoroughly cheesed off

Ah so we're doing amateur hour psychiatric projections are we. Let me have a bash.

There is a subsection of hard right opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that views the Middle East as comprising a small bunch of plucky civilised white people surrounded by hordes of filthy backward arabs who'd cut your head off as soon as look at you.

Anything in that, do we think?

The hard right considers Jews White?

Driver said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:

kamski said:

Leon said:

Dopermean said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

We will never Rejoin because it will never be worth any UK government expending the political capital required (and this is setting aside problems like the euro, Schenghen, a decade of negotiation, fisheries, migration, possible veto by any one of 27 EU nations)

Think about it. Why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing well and you're high in the polls? You wouldn't take the risk, referendums are horribly risky, pointless

But then, why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing badly and everyone hates you, again you are simply offering the voters a chance to give you a kicking and vote against anything you desire

The only way we might Rejoin is if we are literally starving to death and some national coalition proposes it as the only solution, but then the Europeans will surely veto us as a basket case that will drag down the EU economy

We are never going to Rejoin. It is not practical politics in the real world. Better to accept it

I think this looked to be true pre-Trump, and pre the time when Trumpism might shape the USA for the long term. I don't think it looks certain now.

Why? I know TRIP, the Rory and Campbell show, is not universally popular but the most recent discussion is pretty chilling on the evidence for the direction the USA is going in

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0fdoOxkN4o

Rory fucking Stewart is a fucking imbecile. Really. Alistair Campbell is a depressed alcoholic with a huge guilt trip about Iraq. Together they have the political acuity of a cheese toastie

However, I said 95% certain we won't rejoin and not 100% because, black swans

A massive world war, or the USA become a hostile dictatorship would indeed be a very black swan and easily enough to see us back in the EU (and there would probably be even greater sequelae)

But, I don't any of these as more than 5% possibilities, combined

Point taken, though it is possible to miss the wood for your ad hominem trees. (And Rory was my MP, and I wish he still was, and he is genuinely interesting. They are both, in TS Eliot's words 'wounded surgeons').

In probabilities, I think the chance of straight Rejoin EU is fairly small, but the chance (say in the next generation) of some sort of deal, the Switzerland or Norway sort, is more like 30%.

Additionally, the chances of America ceasing to be an active ally and turning its attention away from Europe and NATO are not negligible. Wait and see. We are only 10 days in to the new reality.

Their analysis of Trump (I just watched ten minutes of it) is on the level of a quite bright sixth former. I am regularly astonished by the way apparently clever people - such as you - buy this intellectual pap tricked out as powerful insight

Says the guy who voted for Starmer.

I'm watching more of it now, it's pure midwittery and entirely shite

Stewart has just said "Trump is calling for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza" which is such a ridiculous misreading it is either a deliberate lie OR more evidence that they really are quite dim

Trump thinks outside the box. He is saying "maybe the Gazans would be better off giving up on their shit lives in Gaza and having a much richer, more peaceful life elsewhere". And, of course, Trump has a very good point. Hamas wants the Palestinians trapped in Gaza forever, their misery endless, their suffering a constant source of grevance and militancy - because we all know Israel will never agree to a 2 state solution, not now

And yet Trump saying "Hey here's a better choice for Gazans than the endless pain that Hamas offers" is somehow Trump calling for ethnic cleansing?! According to Rory "wow who knew immigration was so high" Stewart?

Enuff. Only idiots are taken in by this pabulum. I am disappointed @algarkirk is one of them

I know two otherwise-sensible people who have paid actual money to see Stewart and Campbell in a theatre.

Destroying a region's infrastructure, blocking supplies and encouraging the inhabitants to seek refuge elsewhere so that other people (of a different ethnicity) can move in and build their own homes and infrastructure funded by government isn't ethnic cleansing?
He may not be directly calling for it but he is tacitly supporting it.

Trump is offering a better future for Gazans than Hamas or the Palestinian Authority are offering. Its realpolitik

Also, it's not like this is some unprecedented evil; deliberate population movements - to solve intractable problems - happen all the time. Greeks and Turks after WW1, Muslims and Hindus at Partition, Germans after WW2, and many others

The alternative is that the Palestinians continue to squat there in perpetual misery because

1. Israel now won't ever yield to a two state solution

and

2. The Palestinians cannot defeat Israel, and nor can anyone else without nuking them (and getting nuked in return) and thereby rendering the entire Levant uninhabitable for 20,000 years

What wonderful examples of things that aren't 'ethnic cleansing'. Idiot.

Which is why I called it a “ridiculous misreading” of Trump

I mean, go ahead and call it “ethnic cleansing” if you want, that enables you to ignore the fact it’s actually an imaginative and humane solution to this hideous 70 year nightmare

In an ideal world Israelis would get over October 7 and ask for 2 states and Gazans would not be enraged anti Semites. But this is not an ideal world, and Trump has bruited the only possible solution that might make Palestinian lives a lot better and fast while giving Israel security

You and Trump may well be right, and this might be what happens. But as a thought experiment, post the same suggestion in reverse – that Israelis should abandon the Middle East and move en masse to set up a new state in America – and you will be cancelled for antisemitism. And that is what is wrong with Trump's idea.

The shoulder shrugging about Gaza and ideas like this from Trump rest on the belief that Palestinians are not 'proper people'.

Quite the opposite. It’s addressing them as human beings who want a life beyond eternal squalor poverty and martyrdom for Hamas

Yes it’s unideal for them. But it is the only idea out there that might radically improve their lives and in short order

Alternatively you can suggest your idea

I don't have anything new and wacky, I'm afraid. Boring old goal of a free and sovereign Palestine co-existing peacefully with Israel. It's never looked further off but it remains the only long-term sustainable outcome.

The only problem with that is it requires both sides to be led by people who want to see it happen. And at present neither is. And whilst I can see a path to Netenyahu being replaced...

That would certainly help (assuming it was by somebody with a more positive vision for the region). But, yes, nobody is pretending a good outcome is around the corner. Can't even see the corner atm. This doesn't turn Donald Trump's ignorant musings into any sort of way forward.

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

There is a subsection of lefty opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that actively WANTS Palestinian suffering to continue, as it gives them an orgasmically satisfying reason to hate Jews/israel/America/the west/the man

If all the Palestinians abruptly moved to luxury condos in Jakarta and stopped suffering these people would be thoroughly cheesed off

It's all performance politics.

Which is precisely where politics is at these days. No-one is interested in solutions, and that probably hasn't been the case since the early noughties.

Are you not seeing anything positive in what Reeves is coming out with now?

Selebian said:

OldKingCole said:

Selebian said:

OldKingCole said:

Taz said:

Cicero said:

Taz said:

Battlebus said:

What will Rejoin give us?

People like Femi, that bellend with the Top Hat and a few die hard remain obsessives here will be able to STFU.

So that is a positive.

Bell End with the Top Hat? Rees Mogg presumably?

No, this clown

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10008507/mr-stop-brexit-steve-bray-man-parliament/

When we Rejoin I will, if spared that long, probably post just one expression of delight. I don't want to rub any Brexiteer's noses in it!

Better channel Bjørge Lillelien and make the most of that one post then:

"We are the best! We are the best! We have beaten the Eurosceptics 2-1 in referenda!! It is completely unbelievable! We have beaten Reform! Reform, retirement-place of hobbits. Sir James Goldsmith, Boris Johnson, Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, Michel Foot, Tony Benn, James Dyson, Enoch Powell--we have beaten them all. We have beaten them all.
"Nigel Farage can you hear me? Nigel Farage, I have a message for you in the middle of the election campaign. I have a message for you: We have knocked Brexit out of the political discourse. Nigel Farage, as they say in your language in the boxing bars around Boston in Lincolnshire: Your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!"

Just a teeny-weeny bit nose-rubbing, though.

Ah, I thought that only applied after the one post. My bad.

Isn't there something somewhere about 'in victory magnanimity'?

Flatlander said:

How we can be talking about ridiculous rules with bats, newts and fish and yet simultaneously about rejoining the organisation that made all these ridiculous rules in the first place?

Until we can act like the French and just not see anything inconvenient I don't see how it will help.

We need to fix the country ourselves and not hope against hope that someone else will do it for us.

This. It's risible.

Fishing said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:

kamski said:

Leon said:

Dopermean said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

We will never Rejoin because it will never be worth any UK government expending the political capital required (and this is setting aside problems like the euro, Schenghen, a decade of negotiation, fisheries, migration, possible veto by any one of 27 EU nations)

Think about it. Why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing well and you're high in the polls? You wouldn't take the risk, referendums are horribly risky, pointless

But then, why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing badly and everyone hates you, again you are simply offering the voters a chance to give you a kicking and vote against anything you desire

The only way we might Rejoin is if we are literally starving to death and some national coalition proposes it as the only solution, but then the Europeans will surely veto us as a basket case that will drag down the EU economy

We are never going to Rejoin. It is not practical politics in the real world. Better to accept it

I think this looked to be true pre-Trump, and pre the time when Trumpism might shape the USA for the long term. I don't think it looks certain now.

Why? I know TRIP, the Rory and Campbell show, is not universally popular but the most recent discussion is pretty chilling on the evidence for the direction the USA is going in

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0fdoOxkN4o

Rory fucking Stewart is a fucking imbecile. Really. Alistair Campbell is a depressed alcoholic with a huge guilt trip about Iraq. Together they have the political acuity of a cheese toastie

However, I said 95% certain we won't rejoin and not 100% because, black swans

A massive world war, or the USA become a hostile dictatorship would indeed be a very black swan and easily enough to see us back in the EU (and there would probably be even greater sequelae)

But, I don't any of these as more than 5% possibilities, combined

Point taken, though it is possible to miss the wood for your ad hominem trees. (And Rory was my MP, and I wish he still was, and he is genuinely interesting. They are both, in TS Eliot's words 'wounded surgeons').

In probabilities, I think the chance of straight Rejoin EU is fairly small, but the chance (say in the next generation) of some sort of deal, the Switzerland or Norway sort, is more like 30%.

Additionally, the chances of America ceasing to be an active ally and turning its attention away from Europe and NATO are not negligible. Wait and see. We are only 10 days in to the new reality.

Their analysis of Trump (I just watched ten minutes of it) is on the level of a quite bright sixth former. I am regularly astonished by the way apparently clever people - such as you - buy this intellectual pap tricked out as powerful insight

Says the guy who voted for Starmer.

I'm watching more of it now, it's pure midwittery and entirely shite

Stewart has just said "Trump is calling for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza" which is such a ridiculous misreading it is either a deliberate lie OR more evidence that they really are quite dim

Trump thinks outside the box. He is saying "maybe the Gazans would be better off giving up on their shit lives in Gaza and having a much richer, more peaceful life elsewhere". And, of course, Trump has a very good point. Hamas wants the Palestinians trapped in Gaza forever, their misery endless, their suffering a constant source of grevance and militancy - because we all know Israel will never agree to a 2 state solution, not now

And yet Trump saying "Hey here's a better choice for Gazans than the endless pain that Hamas offers" is somehow Trump calling for ethnic cleansing?! According to Rory "wow who knew immigration was so high" Stewart?

Enuff. Only idiots are taken in by this pabulum. I am disappointed @algarkirk is one of them

I know two otherwise-sensible people who have paid actual money to see Stewart and Campbell in a theatre.

Destroying a region's infrastructure, blocking supplies and encouraging the inhabitants to seek refuge elsewhere so that other people (of a different ethnicity) can move in and build their own homes and infrastructure funded by government isn't ethnic cleansing?
He may not be directly calling for it but he is tacitly supporting it.

Trump is offering a better future for Gazans than Hamas or the Palestinian Authority are offering. Its realpolitik

Also, it's not like this is some unprecedented evil; deliberate population movements - to solve intractable problems - happen all the time. Greeks and Turks after WW1, Muslims and Hindus at Partition, Germans after WW2, and many others

The alternative is that the Palestinians continue to squat there in perpetual misery because

1. Israel now won't ever yield to a two state solution

and

2. The Palestinians cannot defeat Israel, and nor can anyone else without nuking them (and getting nuked in return) and thereby rendering the entire Levant uninhabitable for 20,000 years

What wonderful examples of things that aren't 'ethnic cleansing'. Idiot.

Which is why I called it a “ridiculous misreading” of Trump

I mean, go ahead and call it “ethnic cleansing” if you want, that enables you to ignore the fact it’s actually an imaginative and humane solution to this hideous 70 year nightmare

In an ideal world Israelis would get over October 7 and ask for 2 states and Gazans would not be enraged anti Semites. But this is not an ideal world, and Trump has bruited the only possible solution that might make Palestinian lives a lot better and fast while giving Israel security

You and Trump may well be right, and this might be what happens. But as a thought experiment, post the same suggestion in reverse – that Israelis should abandon the Middle East and move en masse to set up a new state in America – and you will be cancelled for antisemitism. And that is what is wrong with Trump's idea.

The shoulder shrugging about Gaza and ideas like this from Trump rest on the belief that Palestinians are not 'proper people'.

Quite the opposite. It’s addressing them as human beings who want a life beyond eternal squalor poverty and martyrdom for Hamas

Yes it’s unideal for them. But it is the only idea out there that might radically improve their lives and in short order

Alternatively you can suggest your idea

I don't have anything new and wacky, I'm afraid. Boring old goal of a free and sovereign Palestine co-existing peacefully with Israel. It's never looked further off but it remains the only long-term sustainable outcome.

I doubt that a separate Palestinian state is viable - not geographically contiguous, the extreme Israelis and Palestinians would also constantly seek to undermine it and the Iranians would always to looking to cause trouble.

I think that the more sustainable outcome long term is for Israelis and Palestinian Arabs to coexist together in a Greater Israel/Palestine/Israeli-Palestinian Federation/whatever. Jews and Arabs coexisted in Palestine for centuries before Zionism (after the 8th century dispersals) and might be able to do so again. The 2 million Israeli Arabs whose ancestors survived ethnic cleansing in the 1940s show it is at least possible.

The extreme Israelis would have to give up the idea of Israeli as a Jewish state and move towards acceptance of multiculturalism and the extreme Palestinian juihadis would have to give up the idea of pushing the Jews out.

Would it be perfect or a panacea? No. Can I see an easy way to get there from here? Not really. But it would be a viable country with at least a chance of working.

I used to think this falls down on "they breed".

However Israel's birth rate is highest on OECD by a significant margin.

carnforth said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

There is a subsection of lefty opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that actively WANTS Palestinian suffering to continue, as it gives them an orgasmically satisfying reason to hate Jews/israel/America/the west/the man

If all the Palestinians abruptly moved to luxury condos in Jakarta and stopped suffering these people would be thoroughly cheesed off

Ah so we're doing amateur hour psychiatric projections are we. Let me have a bash.

There is a subsection of hard right opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that views the Middle East as comprising a small bunch of plucky civilised white people surrounded by hordes of filthy backward arabs who'd cut your head off as soon as look at you.

Anything in that, do we think?

The hard right considers Jews White?

My enemies enemy is my friend, seems to be the rationale.

kamski said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:

kamski said:

Leon said:

Dopermean said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

We will never Rejoin because it will never be worth any UK government expending the political capital required (and this is setting aside problems like the euro, Schenghen, a decade of negotiation, fisheries, migration, possible veto by any one of 27 EU nations)

Think about it. Why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing well and you're high in the polls? You wouldn't take the risk, referendums are horribly risky, pointless

But then, why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing badly and everyone hates you, again you are simply offering the voters a chance to give you a kicking and vote against anything you desire

The only way we might Rejoin is if we are literally starving to death and some national coalition proposes it as the only solution, but then the Europeans will surely veto us as a basket case that will drag down the EU economy

We are never going to Rejoin. It is not practical politics in the real world. Better to accept it

I think this looked to be true pre-Trump, and pre the time when Trumpism might shape the USA for the long term. I don't think it looks certain now.

Why? I know TRIP, the Rory and Campbell show, is not universally popular but the most recent discussion is pretty chilling on the evidence for the direction the USA is going in

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0fdoOxkN4o

Rory fucking Stewart is a fucking imbecile. Really. Alistair Campbell is a depressed alcoholic with a huge guilt trip about Iraq. Together they have the political acuity of a cheese toastie

However, I said 95% certain we won't rejoin and not 100% because, black swans

A massive world war, or the USA become a hostile dictatorship would indeed be a very black swan and easily enough to see us back in the EU (and there would probably be even greater sequelae)

But, I don't any of these as more than 5% possibilities, combined

Point taken, though it is possible to miss the wood for your ad hominem trees. (And Rory was my MP, and I wish he still was, and he is genuinely interesting. They are both, in TS Eliot's words 'wounded surgeons').

In probabilities, I think the chance of straight Rejoin EU is fairly small, but the chance (say in the next generation) of some sort of deal, the Switzerland or Norway sort, is more like 30%.

Additionally, the chances of America ceasing to be an active ally and turning its attention away from Europe and NATO are not negligible. Wait and see. We are only 10 days in to the new reality.

Their analysis of Trump (I just watched ten minutes of it) is on the level of a quite bright sixth former. I am regularly astonished by the way apparently clever people - such as you - buy this intellectual pap tricked out as powerful insight

Says the guy who voted for Starmer.

I'm watching more of it now, it's pure midwittery and entirely shite

Stewart has just said "Trump is calling for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza" which is such a ridiculous misreading it is either a deliberate lie OR more evidence that they really are quite dim

Trump thinks outside the box. He is saying "maybe the Gazans would be better off giving up on their shit lives in Gaza and having a much richer, more peaceful life elsewhere". And, of course, Trump has a very good point. Hamas wants the Palestinians trapped in Gaza forever, their misery endless, their suffering a constant source of grevance and militancy - because we all know Israel will never agree to a 2 state solution, not now

And yet Trump saying "Hey here's a better choice for Gazans than the endless pain that Hamas offers" is somehow Trump calling for ethnic cleansing?! According to Rory "wow who knew immigration was so high" Stewart?

Enuff. Only idiots are taken in by this pabulum. I am disappointed @algarkirk is one of them

I know two otherwise-sensible people who have paid actual money to see Stewart and Campbell in a theatre.

Destroying a region's infrastructure, blocking supplies and encouraging the inhabitants to seek refuge elsewhere so that other people (of a different ethnicity) can move in and build their own homes and infrastructure funded by government isn't ethnic cleansing?
He may not be directly calling for it but he is tacitly supporting it.

Trump is offering a better future for Gazans than Hamas or the Palestinian Authority are offering. Its realpolitik

Also, it's not like this is some unprecedented evil; deliberate population movements - to solve intractable problems - happen all the time. Greeks and Turks after WW1, Muslims and Hindus at Partition, Germans after WW2, and many others

The alternative is that the Palestinians continue to squat there in perpetual misery because

1. Israel now won't ever yield to a two state solution

and

2. The Palestinians cannot defeat Israel, and nor can anyone else without nuking them (and getting nuked in return) and thereby rendering the entire Levant uninhabitable for 20,000 years

What wonderful examples of things that aren't 'ethnic cleansing'. Idiot.

Which is why I called it a “ridiculous misreading” of Trump

I mean, go ahead and call it “ethnic cleansing” if you want, that enables you to ignore the fact it’s actually an imaginative and humane solution to this hideous 70 year nightmare

In an ideal world Israelis would get over October 7 and ask for 2 states and Gazans would not be enraged anti Semites. But this is not an ideal world, and Trump has bruited the only possible solution that might make Palestinian lives a lot better and fast while giving Israel security

You and Trump may well be right, and this might be what happens. But as a thought experiment, post the same suggestion in reverse – that Israelis should abandon the Middle East and move en masse to set up a new state in America – and you will be cancelled for antisemitism. And that is what is wrong with Trump's idea.

The shoulder shrugging about Gaza and ideas like this from Trump rest on the belief that Palestinians are not 'proper people'.

Quite the opposite. It’s addressing them as human beings who want a life beyond eternal squalor poverty and martyrdom for Hamas

Yes it’s unideal for them. But it is the only idea out there that might radically improve their lives and in short order

Alternatively you can suggest your idea

I don't have anything new and wacky, I'm afraid. Boring old goal of a free and sovereign Palestine co-existing peacefully with Israel. It's never looked further off but it remains the only long-term sustainable outcome.

There you go. What you want is not achievable for Palestine. Maybe it was once but not any more. But it makes you feel better to trot out this vapid bilge

So the guy actually giving Palestinians a decent humane alternative to death, misery and squalor is Donald Trump. Not you. Think about that

You do adore that great big powerful man, don't you.

And to think you were rooting for him to lose on Nov 5th! I wonder if there's a touch of guilt-driven overcompensation going on now - like what happened with Owen Jones and Jezza after GE17.

Yes I rather think we might be onto something there.

Leon is right - 'clean' Gaza of Palestinians and give it to Israel, and 'clean' the West Bank of illegal Israeli settlers and that's your Palestinian state. After that they can 'peacefully coexist' or build a massive wall, up to them.

Ah ok - so we await that complementary West Bank initiative.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Flatlander said:

How we can be talking about ridiculous rules with bats, newts and fish and yet simultaneously about rejoining the organisation that made all these ridiculous rules in the first place?

Until we can act like the French and just not see anything inconvenient I don't see how it will help.

We need to fix the country ourselves and not hope against hope that someone else will do it for us.

This. It's risible.

Do the French have all these rules around building stuff ?

I wouldn't worry, SKS is too frit to suggest heading back in. And as we're out we need to start acting like we're out. See today's Rosebank decision.
As someone who supports going back in on economic grounds but cares not a jot for the horrendous politics of the organisation Farage in power is much more likely. Perhaps we'll be able to take advantage of not being tied to the EU more once he's in.

OldKingCole said:

viewcode said:

carnforth said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

There is a subsection of lefty opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that actively WANTS Palestinian suffering to continue, as it gives them an orgasmically satisfying reason to hate Jews/israel/America/the west/the man

If all the Palestinians abruptly moved to luxury condos in Jakarta and stopped suffering these people would be thoroughly cheesed off

Ah so we're doing amateur hour psychiatric projections are we. Let me have a bash.

There is a subsection of hard right opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that views the Middle East as comprising a small bunch of plucky civilised white people surrounded by hordes of filthy backward arabs who'd cut your head off as soon as look at you.

Anything in that, do we think?

The hard right considers Jews White?

The religious right, or at least one part of it, have an odd view towards Judaism in general and the State of Israel in particular. The theory goes that without Israel the final battle will not occur as prophesied - Meggido is a place in Israel. So for the Book of Revelations to come true Israel must exist. Hence rather convoluted stances like Sarah Palin's "God has a special place for Jews in Heaven".

PB, of course, has its own view of geopolitics illuminated by the depth of research and knowledge of its contributors, all of whom are entirely sane and wonderful.

So that's all right then... 😀

I thought Sarah Palin was 'cuckoo' right, rather than 'hard'!

The Orange Man's house has many mansions... 😀

Fishing said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:

kamski said:

Leon said:

Dopermean said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

We will never Rejoin because it will never be worth any UK government expending the political capital required (and this is setting aside problems like the euro, Schenghen, a decade of negotiation, fisheries, migration, possible veto by any one of 27 EU nations)

Think about it. Why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing well and you're high in the polls? You wouldn't take the risk, referendums are horribly risky, pointless

But then, why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing badly and everyone hates you, again you are simply offering the voters a chance to give you a kicking and vote against anything you desire

The only way we might Rejoin is if we are literally starving to death and some national coalition proposes it as the only solution, but then the Europeans will surely veto us as a basket case that will drag down the EU economy

We are never going to Rejoin. It is not practical politics in the real world. Better to accept it

I think this looked to be true pre-Trump, and pre the time when Trumpism might shape the USA for the long term. I don't think it looks certain now.

Why? I know TRIP, the Rory and Campbell show, is not universally popular but the most recent discussion is pretty chilling on the evidence for the direction the USA is going in

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0fdoOxkN4o

Rory fucking Stewart is a fucking imbecile. Really. Alistair Campbell is a depressed alcoholic with a huge guilt trip about Iraq. Together they have the political acuity of a cheese toastie

However, I said 95% certain we won't rejoin and not 100% because, black swans

A massive world war, or the USA become a hostile dictatorship would indeed be a very black swan and easily enough to see us back in the EU (and there would probably be even greater sequelae)

But, I don't any of these as more than 5% possibilities, combined

Point taken, though it is possible to miss the wood for your ad hominem trees. (And Rory was my MP, and I wish he still was, and he is genuinely interesting. They are both, in TS Eliot's words 'wounded surgeons').

In probabilities, I think the chance of straight Rejoin EU is fairly small, but the chance (say in the next generation) of some sort of deal, the Switzerland or Norway sort, is more like 30%.

Additionally, the chances of America ceasing to be an active ally and turning its attention away from Europe and NATO are not negligible. Wait and see. We are only 10 days in to the new reality.

Their analysis of Trump (I just watched ten minutes of it) is on the level of a quite bright sixth former. I am regularly astonished by the way apparently clever people - such as you - buy this intellectual pap tricked out as powerful insight

Says the guy who voted for Starmer.

I'm watching more of it now, it's pure midwittery and entirely shite

Stewart has just said "Trump is calling for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza" which is such a ridiculous misreading it is either a deliberate lie OR more evidence that they really are quite dim

Trump thinks outside the box. He is saying "maybe the Gazans would be better off giving up on their shit lives in Gaza and having a much richer, more peaceful life elsewhere". And, of course, Trump has a very good point. Hamas wants the Palestinians trapped in Gaza forever, their misery endless, their suffering a constant source of grevance and militancy - because we all know Israel will never agree to a 2 state solution, not now

And yet Trump saying "Hey here's a better choice for Gazans than the endless pain that Hamas offers" is somehow Trump calling for ethnic cleansing?! According to Rory "wow who knew immigration was so high" Stewart?

Enuff. Only idiots are taken in by this pabulum. I am disappointed @algarkirk is one of them

I know two otherwise-sensible people who have paid actual money to see Stewart and Campbell in a theatre.

Destroying a region's infrastructure, blocking supplies and encouraging the inhabitants to seek refuge elsewhere so that other people (of a different ethnicity) can move in and build their own homes and infrastructure funded by government isn't ethnic cleansing?
He may not be directly calling for it but he is tacitly supporting it.

Trump is offering a better future for Gazans than Hamas or the Palestinian Authority are offering. Its realpolitik

Also, it's not like this is some unprecedented evil; deliberate population movements - to solve intractable problems - happen all the time. Greeks and Turks after WW1, Muslims and Hindus at Partition, Germans after WW2, and many others

The alternative is that the Palestinians continue to squat there in perpetual misery because

1. Israel now won't ever yield to a two state solution

and

2. The Palestinians cannot defeat Israel, and nor can anyone else without nuking them (and getting nuked in return) and thereby rendering the entire Levant uninhabitable for 20,000 years

What wonderful examples of things that aren't 'ethnic cleansing'. Idiot.

Which is why I called it a “ridiculous misreading” of Trump

I mean, go ahead and call it “ethnic cleansing” if you want, that enables you to ignore the fact it’s actually an imaginative and humane solution to this hideous 70 year nightmare

In an ideal world Israelis would get over October 7 and ask for 2 states and Gazans would not be enraged anti Semites. But this is not an ideal world, and Trump has bruited the only possible solution that might make Palestinian lives a lot better and fast while giving Israel security

You and Trump may well be right, and this might be what happens. But as a thought experiment, post the same suggestion in reverse – that Israelis should abandon the Middle East and move en masse to set up a new state in America – and you will be cancelled for antisemitism. And that is what is wrong with Trump's idea.

The shoulder shrugging about Gaza and ideas like this from Trump rest on the belief that Palestinians are not 'proper people'.

Quite the opposite. It’s addressing them as human beings who want a life beyond eternal squalor poverty and martyrdom for Hamas

Yes it’s unideal for them. But it is the only idea out there that might radically improve their lives and in short order

Alternatively you can suggest your idea

I don't have anything new and wacky, I'm afraid. Boring old goal of a free and sovereign Palestine co-existing peacefully with Israel. It's never looked further off but it remains the only long-term sustainable outcome.

I doubt that a separate Palestinian state is viable - not geographically contiguous, the extreme Israelis and Palestinians would also constantly seek to undermine it and the Iranians would always to looking to cause trouble.

I think that the more sustainable outcome long term is for Israelis and Palestinian Arabs to coexist together in a Greater Israel/Palestine/Israeli-Palestinian Federation/whatever. Jews and Arabs coexisted in Palestine for centuries before Zionism (after the 8th century dispersals) and might be able to do so again. The 2 million Israeli Arabs whose ancestors survived ethnic cleansing in the 1940s show it is at least possible.

The extreme Israelis would have to give up the idea of Israeli as a Jewish state and move towards acceptance of multiculturalism and the extreme Palestinian juihadis would have to give up the idea of pushing the Jews out.

Would it be perfect or a panacea? No. Can I see an easy way to get there from here? Not really. But it would be a viable country with at least a chance of working.

That would be a great outcome.

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

There is a subsection of lefty opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that actively WANTS Palestinian suffering to continue, as it gives them an orgasmically satisfying reason to hate Jews/israel/America/the west/the man

If all the Palestinians abruptly moved to luxury condos in Jakarta and stopped suffering these people would be thoroughly cheesed off

Ah so we're doing amateur hour psychiatric projections are we. Let me have a bash.

There is a subsection of hard right opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that views the Middle East as comprising a small bunch of plucky civilised white people surrounded by hordes of filthy backward arabs who'd cut your head off as soon as look at you.

Anything in that, do we think?

You do get a tiny tremor of small dick tumescence, don’t you? When you think of how much you CARE about the Palestinians, and how much you HATE Donald Trump, and how RIGHTEOUS you are

OnlyLivingBoy said:

IMHO rejoining is not plausible until that 55% looks more like 70%. Politicians won't embrace this until support is more overwhelming and looks solid, since some will peel away during any campaign. I do think we will rejoin, but not for a while.

Will 70% of multiracial Britain identify with the Europe of Le Pen, Merz and Meloni?

Pulpstar said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Flatlander said:

How we can be talking about ridiculous rules with bats, newts and fish and yet simultaneously about rejoining the organisation that made all these ridiculous rules in the first place?

Until we can act like the French and just not see anything inconvenient I don't see how it will help.

We need to fix the country ourselves and not hope against hope that someone else will do it for us.

This. It's risible.

Do the French have all these rules around building stuff ?

I wouldn't worry, SKS is too frit to suggest heading back in. And as we're out we need to start acting like we're out. See today's Rosebank decision.
As someone who supports going back in on economic grounds but cares not a jot for the horrendous politics of the organisation Farage in power is much more likely. Perhaps we'll be able to take advantage of not being tied to the EU more once he's in.

Member states are obliged to mirror EU directives in domestic law, so yes they do. I think they just ignore the bits they don't like, and don't enthusiastically kick their own country in the bollocks like our judges and quangos.

carnforth said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

There is a subsection of lefty opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that actively WANTS Palestinian suffering to continue, as it gives them an orgasmically satisfying reason to hate Jews/israel/America/the west/the man

If all the Palestinians abruptly moved to luxury condos in Jakarta and stopped suffering these people would be thoroughly cheesed off

Ah so we're doing amateur hour psychiatric projections are we. Let me have a bash.

There is a subsection of hard right opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that views the Middle East as comprising a small bunch of plucky civilised white people surrounded by hordes of filthy backward arabs who'd cut your head off as soon as look at you.

Anything in that, do we think?

The hard right considers Jews White?

These guys probably do. Not really coherent but no one would say they're rational.

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

IMHO rejoining is not plausible until that 55% looks more like 70%. Politicians won't embrace this until support is more overwhelming and looks solid, since some will peel away during any campaign. I do think we will rejoin, but not for a while.

Will 70% of multiracial Britain identify with the Europe of Le Pen, Merz and Meloni?

You do know that a clear majority of non-white voters voted Reman, right?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/519308/eu-referendum-voting-intention-in-uk-by-ethnicity/

kamski said:

kinabalu said:

kamski said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:

kamski said:

Leon said:

Dopermean said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

We will never Rejoin because it will never be worth any UK government expending the political capital required (and this is setting aside problems like the euro, Schenghen, a decade of negotiation, fisheries, migration, possible veto by any one of 27 EU nations)

Think about it. Why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing well and you're high in the polls? You wouldn't take the risk, referendums are horribly risky, pointless

But then, why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing badly and everyone hates you, again you are simply offering the voters a chance to give you a kicking and vote against anything you desire

The only way we might Rejoin is if we are literally starving to death and some national coalition proposes it as the only solution, but then the Europeans will surely veto us as a basket case that will drag down the EU economy

We are never going to Rejoin. It is not practical politics in the real world. Better to accept it

I think this looked to be true pre-Trump, and pre the time when Trumpism might shape the USA for the long term. I don't think it looks certain now.

Why? I know TRIP, the Rory and Campbell show, is not universally popular but the most recent discussion is pretty chilling on the evidence for the direction the USA is going in

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0fdoOxkN4o

Rory fucking Stewart is a fucking imbecile. Really. Alistair Campbell is a depressed alcoholic with a huge guilt trip about Iraq. Together they have the political acuity of a cheese toastie

However, I said 95% certain we won't rejoin and not 100% because, black swans

A massive world war, or the USA become a hostile dictatorship would indeed be a very black swan and easily enough to see us back in the EU (and there would probably be even greater sequelae)

But, I don't any of these as more than 5% possibilities, combined

Point taken, though it is possible to miss the wood for your ad hominem trees. (And Rory was my MP, and I wish he still was, and he is genuinely interesting. They are both, in TS Eliot's words 'wounded surgeons').

In probabilities, I think the chance of straight Rejoin EU is fairly small, but the chance (say in the next generation) of some sort of deal, the Switzerland or Norway sort, is more like 30%.

Additionally, the chances of America ceasing to be an active ally and turning its attention away from Europe and NATO are not negligible. Wait and see. We are only 10 days in to the new reality.

Their analysis of Trump (I just watched ten minutes of it) is on the level of a quite bright sixth former. I am regularly astonished by the way apparently clever people - such as you - buy this intellectual pap tricked out as powerful insight

Says the guy who voted for Starmer.

I'm watching more of it now, it's pure midwittery and entirely shite

Stewart has just said "Trump is calling for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza" which is such a ridiculous misreading it is either a deliberate lie OR more evidence that they really are quite dim

Trump thinks outside the box. He is saying "maybe the Gazans would be better off giving up on their shit lives in Gaza and having a much richer, more peaceful life elsewhere". And, of course, Trump has a very good point. Hamas wants the Palestinians trapped in Gaza forever, their misery endless, their suffering a constant source of grevance and militancy - because we all know Israel will never agree to a 2 state solution, not now

And yet Trump saying "Hey here's a better choice for Gazans than the endless pain that Hamas offers" is somehow Trump calling for ethnic cleansing?! According to Rory "wow who knew immigration was so high" Stewart?

Enuff. Only idiots are taken in by this pabulum. I am disappointed @algarkirk is one of them

I know two otherwise-sensible people who have paid actual money to see Stewart and Campbell in a theatre.

Destroying a region's infrastructure, blocking supplies and encouraging the inhabitants to seek refuge elsewhere so that other people (of a different ethnicity) can move in and build their own homes and infrastructure funded by government isn't ethnic cleansing?
He may not be directly calling for it but he is tacitly supporting it.

Trump is offering a better future for Gazans than Hamas or the Palestinian Authority are offering. Its realpolitik

Also, it's not like this is some unprecedented evil; deliberate population movements - to solve intractable problems - happen all the time. Greeks and Turks after WW1, Muslims and Hindus at Partition, Germans after WW2, and many others

The alternative is that the Palestinians continue to squat there in perpetual misery because

1. Israel now won't ever yield to a two state solution

and

2. The Palestinians cannot defeat Israel, and nor can anyone else without nuking them (and getting nuked in return) and thereby rendering the entire Levant uninhabitable for 20,000 years

What wonderful examples of things that aren't 'ethnic cleansing'. Idiot.

Which is why I called it a “ridiculous misreading” of Trump

I mean, go ahead and call it “ethnic cleansing” if you want, that enables you to ignore the fact it’s actually an imaginative and humane solution to this hideous 70 year nightmare

In an ideal world Israelis would get over October 7 and ask for 2 states and Gazans would not be enraged anti Semites. But this is not an ideal world, and Trump has bruited the only possible solution that might make Palestinian lives a lot better and fast while giving Israel security

You and Trump may well be right, and this might be what happens. But as a thought experiment, post the same suggestion in reverse – that Israelis should abandon the Middle East and move en masse to set up a new state in America – and you will be cancelled for antisemitism. And that is what is wrong with Trump's idea.

The shoulder shrugging about Gaza and ideas like this from Trump rest on the belief that Palestinians are not 'proper people'.

Quite the opposite. It’s addressing them as human beings who want a life beyond eternal squalor poverty and martyrdom for Hamas

Yes it’s unideal for them. But it is the only idea out there that might radically improve their lives and in short order

Alternatively you can suggest your idea

I don't have anything new and wacky, I'm afraid. Boring old goal of a free and sovereign Palestine co-existing peacefully with Israel. It's never looked further off but it remains the only long-term sustainable outcome.

There you go. What you want is not achievable for Palestine. Maybe it was once but not any more. But it makes you feel better to trot out this vapid bilge

So the guy actually giving Palestinians a decent humane alternative to death, misery and squalor is Donald Trump. Not you. Think about that

You do adore that great big powerful man, don't you.

And to think you were rooting for him to lose on Nov 5th! I wonder if there's a touch of guilt-driven overcompensation going on now - like what happened with Owen Jones and Jezza after GE17.

Yes I rather think we might be onto something there.

Leon is right - 'clean' Gaza of Palestinians and give it to Israel, and 'clean' the West Bank of illegal Israeli settlers and that's your Palestinian state. After that they can 'peacefully coexist' or build a massive wall, up to them.

Ah ok - so we await that complementary West Bank initiative.

Well Israel is quite dependent on the US so would have to accept it if the Americans insist, and we finally have a humane and decisive US president with a vision - a true man of peace! so I think Trump will soon announce this as his solution. It would be kind of weird for the best deal-maker in the world to only suggest one half of the deal!

It would. So, yep, that must be coming. Skilful and even-handed use of US leverage to forge peace between Israel and the Palestinians, respecting the legitimate aspirations and concerns of both.

It's what Donald J Trump was put on this earth to do. His destiny. Why fate spared him from that bullet.

I am (no kidding) getting quite excited now.

kenObi said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Flatlander said:

How we can be talking about ridiculous rules with bats, newts and fish and yet simultaneously about rejoining the organisation that made all these ridiculous rules in the first place?

Until we can act like the French and just not see anything inconvenient I don't see how it will help.

We need to fix the country ourselves and not hope against hope that someone else will do it for us.

This. It's risible.

The UK's Acts protecting bird species predate the Great War.

Stick to worry about bendy bananas and reds under the bed

Rather like Scottish administrative devolution, really. Our Unionist ScotchExperts blame it all on Alex Salmond, things like the Scotch [sic- but it was 1872/1885] Education Department.

kinabalu said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Fishing said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:

kamski said:

Leon said:

Dopermean said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

We will never Rejoin because it will never be worth any UK government expending the political capital required (and this is setting aside problems like the euro, Schenghen, a decade of negotiation, fisheries, migration, possible veto by any one of 27 EU nations)

Think about it. Why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing well and you're high in the polls? You wouldn't take the risk, referendums are horribly risky, pointless

But then, why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing badly and everyone hates you, again you are simply offering the voters a chance to give you a kicking and vote against anything you desire

The only way we might Rejoin is if we are literally starving to death and some national coalition proposes it as the only solution, but then the Europeans will surely veto us as a basket case that will drag down the EU economy

We are never going to Rejoin. It is not practical politics in the real world. Better to accept it

I think this looked to be true pre-Trump, and pre the time when Trumpism might shape the USA for the long term. I don't think it looks certain now.

Why? I know TRIP, the Rory and Campbell show, is not universally popular but the most recent discussion is pretty chilling on the evidence for the direction the USA is going in

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0fdoOxkN4o

Rory fucking Stewart is a fucking imbecile. Really. Alistair Campbell is a depressed alcoholic with a huge guilt trip about Iraq. Together they have the political acuity of a cheese toastie

However, I said 95% certain we won't rejoin and not 100% because, black swans

A massive world war, or the USA become a hostile dictatorship would indeed be a very black swan and easily enough to see us back in the EU (and there would probably be even greater sequelae)

But, I don't any of these as more than 5% possibilities, combined

Point taken, though it is possible to miss the wood for your ad hominem trees. (And Rory was my MP, and I wish he still was, and he is genuinely interesting. They are both, in TS Eliot's words 'wounded surgeons').

In probabilities, I think the chance of straight Rejoin EU is fairly small, but the chance (say in the next generation) of some sort of deal, the Switzerland or Norway sort, is more like 30%.

Additionally, the chances of America ceasing to be an active ally and turning its attention away from Europe and NATO are not negligible. Wait and see. We are only 10 days in to the new reality.

Their analysis of Trump (I just watched ten minutes of it) is on the level of a quite bright sixth former. I am regularly astonished by the way apparently clever people - such as you - buy this intellectual pap tricked out as powerful insight

Says the guy who voted for Starmer.

I'm watching more of it now, it's pure midwittery and entirely shite

Stewart has just said "Trump is calling for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza" which is such a ridiculous misreading it is either a deliberate lie OR more evidence that they really are quite dim

Trump thinks outside the box. He is saying "maybe the Gazans would be better off giving up on their shit lives in Gaza and having a much richer, more peaceful life elsewhere". And, of course, Trump has a very good point. Hamas wants the Palestinians trapped in Gaza forever, their misery endless, their suffering a constant source of grevance and militancy - because we all know Israel will never agree to a 2 state solution, not now

And yet Trump saying "Hey here's a better choice for Gazans than the endless pain that Hamas offers" is somehow Trump calling for ethnic cleansing?! According to Rory "wow who knew immigration was so high" Stewart?

Enuff. Only idiots are taken in by this pabulum. I am disappointed @algarkirk is one of them

I know two otherwise-sensible people who have paid actual money to see Stewart and Campbell in a theatre.

Destroying a region's infrastructure, blocking supplies and encouraging the inhabitants to seek refuge elsewhere so that other people (of a different ethnicity) can move in and build their own homes and infrastructure funded by government isn't ethnic cleansing?
He may not be directly calling for it but he is tacitly supporting it.

Trump is offering a better future for Gazans than Hamas or the Palestinian Authority are offering. Its realpolitik

Also, it's not like this is some unprecedented evil; deliberate population movements - to solve intractable problems - happen all the time. Greeks and Turks after WW1, Muslims and Hindus at Partition, Germans after WW2, and many others

The alternative is that the Palestinians continue to squat there in perpetual misery because

1. Israel now won't ever yield to a two state solution

and

2. The Palestinians cannot defeat Israel, and nor can anyone else without nuking them (and getting nuked in return) and thereby rendering the entire Levant uninhabitable for 20,000 years

What wonderful examples of things that aren't 'ethnic cleansing'. Idiot.

Which is why I called it a “ridiculous misreading” of Trump

I mean, go ahead and call it “ethnic cleansing” if you want, that enables you to ignore the fact it’s actually an imaginative and humane solution to this hideous 70 year nightmare

In an ideal world Israelis would get over October 7 and ask for 2 states and Gazans would not be enraged anti Semites. But this is not an ideal world, and Trump has bruited the only possible solution that might make Palestinian lives a lot better and fast while giving Israel security

You and Trump may well be right, and this might be what happens. But as a thought experiment, post the same suggestion in reverse – that Israelis should abandon the Middle East and move en masse to set up a new state in America – and you will be cancelled for antisemitism. And that is what is wrong with Trump's idea.

The shoulder shrugging about Gaza and ideas like this from Trump rest on the belief that Palestinians are not 'proper people'.

Quite the opposite. It’s addressing them as human beings who want a life beyond eternal squalor poverty and martyrdom for Hamas

Yes it’s unideal for them. But it is the only idea out there that might radically improve their lives and in short order

Alternatively you can suggest your idea

I don't have anything new and wacky, I'm afraid. Boring old goal of a free and sovereign Palestine co-existing peacefully with Israel. It's never looked further off but it remains the only long-term sustainable outcome.

I doubt that a separate Palestinian state is viable - not geographically contiguous, the extreme Israelis and Palestinians would also constantly seek to undermine it and the Iranians would always to looking to cause trouble.

I think that the more sustainable outcome long term is for Israelis and Palestinian Arabs to coexist together in a Greater Israel/Palestine/Israeli-Palestinian Federation/whatever. Jews and Arabs coexisted in Palestine for centuries before Zionism (after the 8th century dispersals) and might be able to do so again. The 2 million Israeli Arabs whose ancestors survived ethnic cleansing in the 1940s show it is at least possible.

The extreme Israelis would have to give up the idea of Israeli as a Jewish state and move towards acceptance of multiculturalism and the extreme Palestinian juihadis would have to give up the idea of pushing the Jews out.

Would it be perfect or a panacea? No. Can I see an easy way to get there from here? Not really. But it would be a viable country with at least a chance of working.

That would be the most desirable outcome, but it would need, among other things, a US president with vision and determination to bring it about.

Which will surely be the case again one day. Ok, so Donald Trump's fat arse is squatting on the face of everything that's good and decent right now, and it's hard to even breathe properly, but it won't be forever. Might not be long at all, actually, if we're lucky.

I’ve advised you - sincerely - to stop caring about DJT so much. Otherwise the next four years will be utter misery for you, And you don’t have that many years left (same goes for me, as I am well aware)

Do you really want to spend half a decade of your dwindling life fretting and agonizing - pointlessly - about what some berk in DC is doing? It probably won’t affect you that much

You should move. I’m kinda serious. Get out of Britain, go east, do something, broaden your horizons before they are permanently narrowed by fate

I’d advise you to come to Bangkok but we might coincide in Det 5 which would be *awks*. But somewhere like this

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

There is a subsection of lefty opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that actively WANTS Palestinian suffering to continue, as it gives them an orgasmically satisfying reason to hate Jews/israel/America/the west/the man

If all the Palestinians abruptly moved to luxury condos in Jakarta and stopped suffering these people would be thoroughly cheesed off

It's all performance politics.

Which is precisely where politics is at these days. No-one is interested in solutions, and that probably hasn't been the case since the early noughties.

Are you not seeing anything positive in what Reeves is coming out with now?

It's very positive she's making infrastructure announcements, and far better than the alternative. One positive Labour has done is HS2 and LTC.

However, none of it will automatically just "happen" they have to grant planning consent to it all, take responsibility for making the decision and actively sponsor the projects publicly, particularly the Heathrow Third Runway, which will probably head straight into planning inquiries and judicial reviews again.

One news statement isn't enough.

It’s all gestural bollocks, I’m afraid

Starmer and Reeves have a massive majority and they could use the sovereignty of parliament to ram this through in weeks, clearing away any judicial obstacles. JFDI. But they aren’t and they won’t, because all they want is the feelgood buzz of “being positive” and “going for growth” without the angst of annoying the Greenier lefties and actually taking on vested interests

It’s yet another menu in the Paralysis Cafe, they just changed the font

slade said:

There are no local by-elections today except for a town council one in Welwyn Hatfield.

This reminds me... There's a site I was looking at which has all the by elections since the GE listed along with charts showing the flow between parties... but I can't remember whose site it was or find it in my browser history... can anyone help?

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

IMHO rejoining is not plausible until that 55% looks more like 70%. Politicians won't embrace this until support is more overwhelming and looks solid, since some will peel away during any campaign. I do think we will rejoin, but not for a while.

Will 70% of multiracial Britain identify with the Europe of Le Pen, Merz and Meloni?

You do know that a clear majority of non-white voters voted Reman, right?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/519308/eu-referendum-voting-intention-in-uk-by-ethnicity/

That was then and this is now. Any rejoin campaign would have a strong theme of rejoining the European 'family' and protecting our European civilisation and rejoiners wouldn't be able to avoid saying things that implicity exclude non-white voters.

I'm not sure blood and soil ethnonationalism will play a big part in any rejoin campaign. That's your more bag.

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

There is a subsection of lefty opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that actively WANTS Palestinian suffering to continue, as it gives them an orgasmically satisfying reason to hate Jews/israel/America/the west/the man

If all the Palestinians abruptly moved to luxury condos in Jakarta and stopped suffering these people would be thoroughly cheesed off

Ah so we're doing amateur hour psychiatric projections are we. Let me have a bash.

There is a subsection of hard right opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that views the Middle East as comprising a small bunch of plucky civilised white people surrounded by hordes of filthy backward arabs who'd cut your head off as soon as look at you.

Anything in that, do we think?

Hm, perhaps you're right. The way I see it, Israel is a democracy and is sort-of-western. Its neighbours - Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, Jordan, Saudi, Egypt (to some extent) - are not. They are run by absolute monarchies, or gangs and warlords, or the church, or a mixture of all three. They are not recognisably modern countries. They don't operate by modern standards.

So yes - from my perspective, Israel strikes me as an island of not-totally-awful surrounded by a sea of awful.

Put it this way - where would you rather live?

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

There is a subsection of lefty opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that actively WANTS Palestinian suffering to continue, as it gives them an orgasmically satisfying reason to hate Jews/israel/America/the west/the man

If all the Palestinians abruptly moved to luxury condos in Jakarta and stopped suffering these people would be thoroughly cheesed off

It's all performance politics.

Which is precisely where politics is at these days. No-one is interested in solutions, and that probably hasn't been the case since the early noughties.

Are you not seeing anything positive in what Reeves is coming out with now?

It's very positive she's making infrastructure announcements, and far better than the alternative. One positive Labour has done is HS2 and LTC.

However, none of it will automatically just "happen" they have to grant planning consent to it all, take responsibility for making the decision and actively sponsor the projects publicly, particularly the Heathrow Third Runway, which will probably head straight into planning inquiries and judicial reviews again.

One news statement isn't enough.

Sadly they appear to be content with making the positive statements, then more than happy to let the inquiry complex take it from there. At least they said the positive things, and it was the fault of others that nothing actually happened.

See also Rishi Sunak and “Stop the boats”, only a year ago.

The current government has a massive majority, if they actively wanted a new runway they could legislate for it next week.

Cookie said:

Driver said:

slade said:

There are no local by-elections today except for a town council one in Welwyn Hatfield.

This reminds me... There's a site I was looking at which has all the by elections since the GE listed along with charts showing the flow between parties... but I can't remember whose site it was or find it in my browser history... can anyone help?

https://electionmaps.uk/council-by-elections/24-29

That's the one, thanks. Duly bookmarked

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

There is a subsection of lefty opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that actively WANTS Palestinian suffering to continue, as it gives them an orgasmically satisfying reason to hate Jews/israel/America/the west/the man

If all the Palestinians abruptly moved to luxury condos in Jakarta and stopped suffering these people would be thoroughly cheesed off

It's all performance politics.

Which is precisely where politics is at these days. No-one is interested in solutions, and that probably hasn't been the case since the early noughties.

Are you not seeing anything positive in what Reeves is coming out with now?

It's very positive she's making infrastructure announcements, and far better than the alternative. One positive Labour has done is HS2 and LTC.

However, none of it will automatically just "happen" they have to grant planning consent to it all, take responsibility for making the decision and actively sponsor the projects publicly, particularly the Heathrow Third Runway, which will probably head straight into planning inquiries and judicial reviews again.

One news statement isn't enough.

Yes. Let's see if the walk is walked. Quite a big culture change if so. Still, that's what big majorities are for. No point having one if you're not going to make some waves.

There appears to be rather less in there than the Tories were nominally committed to. I'm thinking in particular of Northern Powerhouse Rail.
Granted, I didn't particularly believe the Tories' commitment to this was wholly sincere. But Labour appears even less committed to it. Infrastructure commitments made under the Conservative government are being edged away from.

kenObi said:

Fishing said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:

kamski said:

Leon said:

Dopermean said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

We will never Rejoin because it will never be worth any UK government expending the political capital required (and this is setting aside problems like the euro, Schenghen, a decade of negotiation, fisheries, migration, possible veto by any one of 27 EU nations)

Think about it. Why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing well and you're high in the polls? You wouldn't take the risk, referendums are horribly risky, pointless

But then, why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing badly and everyone hates you, again you are simply offering the voters a chance to give you a kicking and vote against anything you desire

The only way we might Rejoin is if we are literally starving to death and some national coalition proposes it as the only solution, but then the Europeans will surely veto us as a basket case that will drag down the EU economy

We are never going to Rejoin. It is not practical politics in the real world. Better to accept it

I think this looked to be true pre-Trump, and pre the time when Trumpism might shape the USA for the long term. I don't think it looks certain now.

Why? I know TRIP, the Rory and Campbell show, is not universally popular but the most recent discussion is pretty chilling on the evidence for the direction the USA is going in

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0fdoOxkN4o

Rory fucking Stewart is a fucking imbecile. Really. Alistair Campbell is a depressed alcoholic with a huge guilt trip about Iraq. Together they have the political acuity of a cheese toastie

However, I said 95% certain we won't rejoin and not 100% because, black swans

A massive world war, or the USA become a hostile dictatorship would indeed be a very black swan and easily enough to see us back in the EU (and there would probably be even greater sequelae)

But, I don't any of these as more than 5% possibilities, combined

Point taken, though it is possible to miss the wood for your ad hominem trees. (And Rory was my MP, and I wish he still was, and he is genuinely interesting. They are both, in TS Eliot's words 'wounded surgeons').

In probabilities, I think the chance of straight Rejoin EU is fairly small, but the chance (say in the next generation) of some sort of deal, the Switzerland or Norway sort, is more like 30%.

Additionally, the chances of America ceasing to be an active ally and turning its attention away from Europe and NATO are not negligible. Wait and see. We are only 10 days in to the new reality.

Their analysis of Trump (I just watched ten minutes of it) is on the level of a quite bright sixth former. I am regularly astonished by the way apparently clever people - such as you - buy this intellectual pap tricked out as powerful insight

Says the guy who voted for Starmer.

I'm watching more of it now, it's pure midwittery and entirely shite

Stewart has just said "Trump is calling for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza" which is such a ridiculous misreading it is either a deliberate lie OR more evidence that they really are quite dim

Trump thinks outside the box. He is saying "maybe the Gazans would be better off giving up on their shit lives in Gaza and having a much richer, more peaceful life elsewhere". And, of course, Trump has a very good point. Hamas wants the Palestinians trapped in Gaza forever, their misery endless, their suffering a constant source of grevance and militancy - because we all know Israel will never agree to a 2 state solution, not now

And yet Trump saying "Hey here's a better choice for Gazans than the endless pain that Hamas offers" is somehow Trump calling for ethnic cleansing?! According to Rory "wow who knew immigration was so high" Stewart?

Enuff. Only idiots are taken in by this pabulum. I am disappointed @algarkirk is one of them

I know two otherwise-sensible people who have paid actual money to see Stewart and Campbell in a theatre.

Destroying a region's infrastructure, blocking supplies and encouraging the inhabitants to seek refuge elsewhere so that other people (of a different ethnicity) can move in and build their own homes and infrastructure funded by government isn't ethnic cleansing?
He may not be directly calling for it but he is tacitly supporting it.

Trump is offering a better future for Gazans than Hamas or the Palestinian Authority are offering. Its realpolitik

Also, it's not like this is some unprecedented evil; deliberate population movements - to solve intractable problems - happen all the time. Greeks and Turks after WW1, Muslims and Hindus at Partition, Germans after WW2, and many others

The alternative is that the Palestinians continue to squat there in perpetual misery because

1. Israel now won't ever yield to a two state solution

and

2. The Palestinians cannot defeat Israel, and nor can anyone else without nuking them (and getting nuked in return) and thereby rendering the entire Levant uninhabitable for 20,000 years

What wonderful examples of things that aren't 'ethnic cleansing'. Idiot.

Which is why I called it a “ridiculous misreading” of Trump

I mean, go ahead and call it “ethnic cleansing” if you want, that enables you to ignore the fact it’s actually an imaginative and humane solution to this hideous 70 year nightmare

In an ideal world Israelis would get over October 7 and ask for 2 states and Gazans would not be enraged anti Semites. But this is not an ideal world, and Trump has bruited the only possible solution that might make Palestinian lives a lot better and fast while giving Israel security

You and Trump may well be right, and this might be what happens. But as a thought experiment, post the same suggestion in reverse – that Israelis should abandon the Middle East and move en masse to set up a new state in America – and you will be cancelled for antisemitism. And that is what is wrong with Trump's idea.

The shoulder shrugging about Gaza and ideas like this from Trump rest on the belief that Palestinians are not 'proper people'.

Quite the opposite. It’s addressing them as human beings who want a life beyond eternal squalor poverty and martyrdom for Hamas

Yes it’s unideal for them. But it is the only idea out there that might radically improve their lives and in short order

Alternatively you can suggest your idea

I don't have anything new and wacky, I'm afraid. Boring old goal of a free and sovereign Palestine co-existing peacefully with Israel. It's never looked further off but it remains the only long-term sustainable outcome.

I doubt that a separate Palestinian state is viable - not geographically contiguous, the extreme Israelis and Palestinians would also constantly seek to undermine it and the Iranians would always to looking to cause trouble.

I think that the more sustainable outcome long term is for Israelis and Palestinian Arabs to coexist together in a Greater Israel/Palestine/Israeli-Palestinian Federation/whatever. Jews and Arabs coexisted in Palestine for centuries before Zionism (after the 8th century dispersals) and might be able to do so again. The 2 million Israeli Arabs whose ancestors survived ethnic cleansing in the 1940s show it is at least possible.

The extreme Israelis would have to give up the idea of Israeli as a Jewish state and move towards acceptance of multiculturalism and the extreme Palestinian juihadis would have to give up the idea of pushing the Jews out.

Would it be perfect or a panacea? No. Can I see an easy way to get there from here? Not really. But it would be a viable country with at least a chance of working.

I used to think this falls down on "they breed".

However Israel's birth rate is highest on OECD by a significant margin.

I think where it would fail is because of the 3 million or so Palestinian refugees who have been in Jordan (and Egypt and Lebanon) for 80 years and to whom the Israelis have always refused to grant a right of return. If there is a peaceful, multicultural federation, even the spurious pretexts the Israelis keep making for not allowing them their rights under international law would become untenable. Those refugees, added to the five million in the West Bank and Gaza and the two million Israeli Arabs would mean that the 7.2 million Jews would be in a minority in Israel and without some credible safeguards they would not be willing to accept that.

So I'm afraid my Utopian solution of a civilised, cosmopolitan state is unlikely and a continuation of the present situation of oppression punctuated by massacre is the most probable outcome.

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

There is a subsection of lefty opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that actively WANTS Palestinian suffering to continue, as it gives them an orgasmically satisfying reason to hate Jews/israel/America/the west/the man

If all the Palestinians abruptly moved to luxury condos in Jakarta and stopped suffering these people would be thoroughly cheesed off

Ah so we're doing amateur hour psychiatric projections are we. Let me have a bash.

There is a subsection of hard right opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that views the Middle East as comprising a small bunch of plucky civilised white people surrounded by hordes of filthy backward arabs who'd cut your head off as soon as look at you.

Anything in that, do we think?

Hm, perhaps you're right. The way I see it, Israel is a democracy and is sort-of-western. Its neighbours - Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, Jordan, Saudi, Egypt (to some extent) - are not. They are run by absolute monarchies, or gangs and warlords, or the church, or a mixture of all three. They are not recognisably modern countries. They don't operate by modern standards.

So yes - from my perspective, Israel strikes me as an island of not-totally-awful surrounded by a sea of awful.

Put it this way - where would you rather live?

I'd have to do some serious research before answering that. It probably wouldn't be Saudi Arabia. I also struggle to see myself in Syria.

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

There is a subsection of lefty opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that actively WANTS Palestinian suffering to continue, as it gives them an orgasmically satisfying reason to hate Jews/israel/America/the west/the man

If all the Palestinians abruptly moved to luxury condos in Jakarta and stopped suffering these people would be thoroughly cheesed off

Ah so we're doing amateur hour psychiatric projections are we. Let me have a bash.

There is a subsection of hard right opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that views the Middle East as comprising a small bunch of plucky civilised white people surrounded by hordes of filthy backward arabs who'd cut your head off as soon as look at you.

Anything in that, do we think?

There is that strand of opinion.

The opposite strand (probably better represented amongst academics), views Israelis as white colonisers (conveniently ignoring Sephardic and Ethiopian Jews), oppressing brown freedom fighters.

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

There is a subsection of lefty opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that actively WANTS Palestinian suffering to continue, as it gives them an orgasmically satisfying reason to hate Jews/israel/America/the west/the man

If all the Palestinians abruptly moved to luxury condos in Jakarta and stopped suffering these people would be thoroughly cheesed off

It's all performance politics.

Which is precisely where politics is at these days. No-one is interested in solutions, and that probably hasn't been the case since the early noughties.

Are you not seeing anything positive in what Reeves is coming out with now?

It's very positive she's making infrastructure announcements, and far better than the alternative. One positive Labour has done is HS2 and LTC.

However, none of it will automatically just "happen" they have to grant planning consent to it all, take responsibility for making the decision and actively sponsor the projects publicly, particularly the Heathrow Third Runway, which will probably head straight into planning inquiries and judicial reviews again.

One news statement isn't enough.

The tactic will probably be numerous judicial reviews on various points of law to delay and delay and delay.

I am sure the crowdfunders will be underway imminently.

I do admire what Reeves is doing, or starting to do, not just a proper dialogue on growth but some action. I have been quite critical of her before. I just think this goes hand in hand with reforming the whole process which sees frivolous appeals and tactics used to delay projects even ones, like the A66 upgrade, which have overwhelming local support.

Taz said:

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

There is a subsection of lefty opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that actively WANTS Palestinian suffering to continue, as it gives them an orgasmically satisfying reason to hate Jews/israel/America/the west/the man

If all the Palestinians abruptly moved to luxury condos in Jakarta and stopped suffering these people would be thoroughly cheesed off

It's all performance politics.

Which is precisely where politics is at these days. No-one is interested in solutions, and that probably hasn't been the case since the early noughties.

Are you not seeing anything positive in what Reeves is coming out with now?

It's very positive she's making infrastructure announcements, and far better than the alternative. One positive Labour has done is HS2 and LTC.

However, none of it will automatically just "happen" they have to grant planning consent to it all, take responsibility for making the decision and actively sponsor the projects publicly, particularly the Heathrow Third Runway, which will probably head straight into planning inquiries and judicial reviews again.

One news statement isn't enough.

The tactic will probably be numerous judicial reviews on various points of law to delay and delay and delay.

I am sure the crowdfunders will be underway imminently.

I do admire what Reeves is doing, or starting to do, not just a proper dialogue on growth but some action. I have been quite critical of her before. I just think this goes hand in hand with reforming the whole process which sees frivolous appeals and tactics used to delay projects even ones, like the A66 upgrade, which have overwhelming local support.

At the very least, the political focus means we can have a discussion and attention to the disastrous planning and judicial review regime.

Rachel and Keir have their Scargill, if they want one.

kinabalu said:

Morris_Dancer said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Fishing said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:

kamski said:

Leon said:

Dopermean said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

We will never Rejoin because it will never be worth any UK government expending the political capital required (and this is setting aside problems like the euro, Schenghen, a decade of negotiation, fisheries, migration, possible veto by any one of 27 EU nations)

Think about it. Why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing well and you're high in the polls? You wouldn't take the risk, referendums are horribly risky, pointless

But then, why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing badly and everyone hates you, again you are simply offering the voters a chance to give you a kicking and vote against anything you desire

The only way we might Rejoin is if we are literally starving to death and some national coalition proposes it as the only solution, but then the Europeans will surely veto us as a basket case that will drag down the EU economy

We are never going to Rejoin. It is not practical politics in the real world. Better to accept it

I think this looked to be true pre-Trump, and pre the time when Trumpism might shape the USA for the long term. I don't think it looks certain now.

Why? I know TRIP, the Rory and Campbell show, is not universally popular but the most recent discussion is pretty chilling on the evidence for the direction the USA is going in

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0fdoOxkN4o

Rory fucking Stewart is a fucking imbecile. Really. Alistair Campbell is a depressed alcoholic with a huge guilt trip about Iraq. Together they have the political acuity of a cheese toastie

However, I said 95% certain we won't rejoin and not 100% because, black swans

A massive world war, or the USA become a hostile dictatorship would indeed be a very black swan and easily enough to see us back in the EU (and there would probably be even greater sequelae)

But, I don't any of these as more than 5% possibilities, combined

Point taken, though it is possible to miss the wood for your ad hominem trees. (And Rory was my MP, and I wish he still was, and he is genuinely interesting. They are both, in TS Eliot's words 'wounded surgeons').

In probabilities, I think the chance of straight Rejoin EU is fairly small, but the chance (say in the next generation) of some sort of deal, the Switzerland or Norway sort, is more like 30%.

Additionally, the chances of America ceasing to be an active ally and turning its attention away from Europe and NATO are not negligible. Wait and see. We are only 10 days in to the new reality.

Their analysis of Trump (I just watched ten minutes of it) is on the level of a quite bright sixth former. I am regularly astonished by the way apparently clever people - such as you - buy this intellectual pap tricked out as powerful insight

Says the guy who voted for Starmer.

I'm watching more of it now, it's pure midwittery and entirely shite

Stewart has just said "Trump is calling for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza" which is such a ridiculous misreading it is either a deliberate lie OR more evidence that they really are quite dim

Trump thinks outside the box. He is saying "maybe the Gazans would be better off giving up on their shit lives in Gaza and having a much richer, more peaceful life elsewhere". And, of course, Trump has a very good point. Hamas wants the Palestinians trapped in Gaza forever, their misery endless, their suffering a constant source of grevance and militancy - because we all know Israel will never agree to a 2 state solution, not now

And yet Trump saying "Hey here's a better choice for Gazans than the endless pain that Hamas offers" is somehow Trump calling for ethnic cleansing?! According to Rory "wow who knew immigration was so high" Stewart?

Enuff. Only idiots are taken in by this pabulum. I am disappointed @algarkirk is one of them

I know two otherwise-sensible people who have paid actual money to see Stewart and Campbell in a theatre.

Destroying a region's infrastructure, blocking supplies and encouraging the inhabitants to seek refuge elsewhere so that other people (of a different ethnicity) can move in and build their own homes and infrastructure funded by government isn't ethnic cleansing?
He may not be directly calling for it but he is tacitly supporting it.

Trump is offering a better future for Gazans than Hamas or the Palestinian Authority are offering. Its realpolitik

Also, it's not like this is some unprecedented evil; deliberate population movements - to solve intractable problems - happen all the time. Greeks and Turks after WW1, Muslims and Hindus at Partition, Germans after WW2, and many others

The alternative is that the Palestinians continue to squat there in perpetual misery because

1. Israel now won't ever yield to a two state solution

and

2. The Palestinians cannot defeat Israel, and nor can anyone else without nuking them (and getting nuked in return) and thereby rendering the entire Levant uninhabitable for 20,000 years

What wonderful examples of things that aren't 'ethnic cleansing'. Idiot.

Which is why I called it a “ridiculous misreading” of Trump

I mean, go ahead and call it “ethnic cleansing” if you want, that enables you to ignore the fact it’s actually an imaginative and humane solution to this hideous 70 year nightmare

In an ideal world Israelis would get over October 7 and ask for 2 states and Gazans would not be enraged anti Semites. But this is not an ideal world, and Trump has bruited the only possible solution that might make Palestinian lives a lot better and fast while giving Israel security

You and Trump may well be right, and this might be what happens. But as a thought experiment, post the same suggestion in reverse – that Israelis should abandon the Middle East and move en masse to set up a new state in America – and you will be cancelled for antisemitism. And that is what is wrong with Trump's idea.

The shoulder shrugging about Gaza and ideas like this from Trump rest on the belief that Palestinians are not 'proper people'.

Quite the opposite. It’s addressing them as human beings who want a life beyond eternal squalor poverty and martyrdom for Hamas

Yes it’s unideal for them. But it is the only idea out there that might radically improve their lives and in short order

Alternatively you can suggest your idea

I don't have anything new and wacky, I'm afraid. Boring old goal of a free and sovereign Palestine co-existing peacefully with Israel. It's never looked further off but it remains the only long-term sustainable outcome.

I doubt that a separate Palestinian state is viable - not geographically contiguous, the extreme Israelis and Palestinians would also constantly seek to undermine it and the Iranians would always to looking to cause trouble.

I think that the more sustainable outcome long term is for Israelis and Palestinian Arabs to coexist together in a Greater Israel/Palestine/Israeli-Palestinian Federation/whatever. Jews and Arabs coexisted in Palestine for centuries before Zionism (after the 8th century dispersals) and might be able to do so again. The 2 million Israeli Arabs whose ancestors survived ethnic cleansing in the 1940s show it is at least possible.

The extreme Israelis would have to give up the idea of Israeli as a Jewish state and move towards acceptance of multiculturalism and the extreme Palestinian juihadis would have to give up the idea of pushing the Jews out.

Would it be perfect or a panacea? No. Can I see an easy way to get there from here? Not really. But it would be a viable country with at least a chance of working.

That would be the most desirable outcome, but it would need, among other things, a US president with vision and determination to bring it about.

Which will surely be the case again one day. Ok, so Donald Trump's fat arse is squatting on the face of everything that's good and decent right now, and it's hard to even breathe properly, but it won't be forever. Might not be long at all, actually, if we're lucky.

I’ve advised you - sincerely - to stop caring about DJT so much. Otherwise the next four years will be utter misery for you, And you don’t have that many years left (same goes for me, as I am well aware)

Do you really want to spend half a decade of your dwindling life fretting and agonizing - pointlessly - about what some berk in DC is doing? It probably won’t affect you that much

You should move. I’m kinda serious. Get out of Britain, go east, do something, broaden your horizons before they are permanently narrowed by fate

I’d advise you to come to Bangkok but we might coincide in Det 5 which would be *awks*. But somewhere like this

Cowards way out and a bit wussy.

Anger is an energy, anger is an energy ...

I don't go in for it too seriously, but I do like the Stoic philosophical approach.

If you can't change something, don't fixate on it.

It's similar to sports psychology and focusing on what you can change and control rather than what you can't (which matters a lot for sports like cricket and snooker).

Well "fixate" is never good. One should probably try and avoid fixating on anything. But "care a lot" is fine, I think, even if you have no power to affect the thing you care a lot about. Otherwise you really are boxing yourself in.

Agreed, but there does come a stage where all that happens is significant stress over something uncontrollable.

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Fishing said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:

kamski said:

Leon said:

Dopermean said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

We will never Rejoin because it will never be worth any UK government expending the political capital required (and this is setting aside problems like the euro, Schenghen, a decade of negotiation, fisheries, migration, possible veto by any one of 27 EU nations)

Think about it. Why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing well and you're high in the polls? You wouldn't take the risk, referendums are horribly risky, pointless

But then, why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing badly and everyone hates you, again you are simply offering the voters a chance to give you a kicking and vote against anything you desire

The only way we might Rejoin is if we are literally starving to death and some national coalition proposes it as the only solution, but then the Europeans will surely veto us as a basket case that will drag down the EU economy

We are never going to Rejoin. It is not practical politics in the real world. Better to accept it

I think this looked to be true pre-Trump, and pre the time when Trumpism might shape the USA for the long term. I don't think it looks certain now.

Why? I know TRIP, the Rory and Campbell show, is not universally popular but the most recent discussion is pretty chilling on the evidence for the direction the USA is going in

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0fdoOxkN4o

Rory fucking Stewart is a fucking imbecile. Really. Alistair Campbell is a depressed alcoholic with a huge guilt trip about Iraq. Together they have the political acuity of a cheese toastie

However, I said 95% certain we won't rejoin and not 100% because, black swans

A massive world war, or the USA become a hostile dictatorship would indeed be a very black swan and easily enough to see us back in the EU (and there would probably be even greater sequelae)

But, I don't any of these as more than 5% possibilities, combined

Point taken, though it is possible to miss the wood for your ad hominem trees. (And Rory was my MP, and I wish he still was, and he is genuinely interesting. They are both, in TS Eliot's words 'wounded surgeons').

In probabilities, I think the chance of straight Rejoin EU is fairly small, but the chance (say in the next generation) of some sort of deal, the Switzerland or Norway sort, is more like 30%.

Additionally, the chances of America ceasing to be an active ally and turning its attention away from Europe and NATO are not negligible. Wait and see. We are only 10 days in to the new reality.

Their analysis of Trump (I just watched ten minutes of it) is on the level of a quite bright sixth former. I am regularly astonished by the way apparently clever people - such as you - buy this intellectual pap tricked out as powerful insight

Says the guy who voted for Starmer.

I'm watching more of it now, it's pure midwittery and entirely shite

Stewart has just said "Trump is calling for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza" which is such a ridiculous misreading it is either a deliberate lie OR more evidence that they really are quite dim

Trump thinks outside the box. He is saying "maybe the Gazans would be better off giving up on their shit lives in Gaza and having a much richer, more peaceful life elsewhere". And, of course, Trump has a very good point. Hamas wants the Palestinians trapped in Gaza forever, their misery endless, their suffering a constant source of grevance and militancy - because we all know Israel will never agree to a 2 state solution, not now

And yet Trump saying "Hey here's a better choice for Gazans than the endless pain that Hamas offers" is somehow Trump calling for ethnic cleansing?! According to Rory "wow who knew immigration was so high" Stewart?

Enuff. Only idiots are taken in by this pabulum. I am disappointed @algarkirk is one of them

I know two otherwise-sensible people who have paid actual money to see Stewart and Campbell in a theatre.

Destroying a region's infrastructure, blocking supplies and encouraging the inhabitants to seek refuge elsewhere so that other people (of a different ethnicity) can move in and build their own homes and infrastructure funded by government isn't ethnic cleansing?
He may not be directly calling for it but he is tacitly supporting it.

Trump is offering a better future for Gazans than Hamas or the Palestinian Authority are offering. Its realpolitik

Also, it's not like this is some unprecedented evil; deliberate population movements - to solve intractable problems - happen all the time. Greeks and Turks after WW1, Muslims and Hindus at Partition, Germans after WW2, and many others

The alternative is that the Palestinians continue to squat there in perpetual misery because

1. Israel now won't ever yield to a two state solution

and

2. The Palestinians cannot defeat Israel, and nor can anyone else without nuking them (and getting nuked in return) and thereby rendering the entire Levant uninhabitable for 20,000 years

What wonderful examples of things that aren't 'ethnic cleansing'. Idiot.

Which is why I called it a “ridiculous misreading” of Trump

I mean, go ahead and call it “ethnic cleansing” if you want, that enables you to ignore the fact it’s actually an imaginative and humane solution to this hideous 70 year nightmare

In an ideal world Israelis would get over October 7 and ask for 2 states and Gazans would not be enraged anti Semites. But this is not an ideal world, and Trump has bruited the only possible solution that might make Palestinian lives a lot better and fast while giving Israel security

You and Trump may well be right, and this might be what happens. But as a thought experiment, post the same suggestion in reverse – that Israelis should abandon the Middle East and move en masse to set up a new state in America – and you will be cancelled for antisemitism. And that is what is wrong with Trump's idea.

The shoulder shrugging about Gaza and ideas like this from Trump rest on the belief that Palestinians are not 'proper people'.

Quite the opposite. It’s addressing them as human beings who want a life beyond eternal squalor poverty and martyrdom for Hamas

Yes it’s unideal for them. But it is the only idea out there that might radically improve their lives and in short order

Alternatively you can suggest your idea

I don't have anything new and wacky, I'm afraid. Boring old goal of a free and sovereign Palestine co-existing peacefully with Israel. It's never looked further off but it remains the only long-term sustainable outcome.

I doubt that a separate Palestinian state is viable - not geographically contiguous, the extreme Israelis and Palestinians would also constantly seek to undermine it and the Iranians would always to looking to cause trouble.

I think that the more sustainable outcome long term is for Israelis and Palestinian Arabs to coexist together in a Greater Israel/Palestine/Israeli-Palestinian Federation/whatever. Jews and Arabs coexisted in Palestine for centuries before Zionism (after the 8th century dispersals) and might be able to do so again. The 2 million Israeli Arabs whose ancestors survived ethnic cleansing in the 1940s show it is at least possible.

The extreme Israelis would have to give up the idea of Israeli as a Jewish state and move towards acceptance of multiculturalism and the extreme Palestinian juihadis would have to give up the idea of pushing the Jews out.

Would it be perfect or a panacea? No. Can I see an easy way to get there from here? Not really. But it would be a viable country with at least a chance of working.

That would be the most desirable outcome, but it would need, among other things, a US president with vision and determination to bring it about.

Which will surely be the case again one day. Ok, so Donald Trump's fat arse is squatting on the face of everything that's good and decent right now, and it's hard to even breathe properly, but it won't be forever. Might not be long at all, actually, if we're lucky.

I’ve advised you - sincerely - to stop caring about DJT so much. Otherwise the next four years will be utter misery for you, And you don’t have that many years left (same goes for me, as I am well aware)

Do you really want to spend half a decade of your dwindling life fretting and agonizing - pointlessly - about what some berk in DC is doing? It probably won’t affect you that much

You should move. I’m kinda serious. Get out of Britain, go east, do something, broaden your horizons before they are permanently narrowed by fate

I’d advise you to come to Bangkok but we might coincide in Det 5 which would be *awks*. But somewhere like this

Cowards way out and a bit wussy.

Anger is an energy, anger is an energy ...

Fair enough. But you don’t strike me as someone who is usefully channeling the anger into any positive energy

It comes across as existential despair tinged with helpless fury, like a pointless fire that burns on the edge of a city, loped around by jackals, policed by crows

OOOH

Fishing said:

kenObi said:

Fishing said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:

kamski said:

Leon said:

Dopermean said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

We will never Rejoin because it will never be worth any UK government expending the political capital required (and this is setting aside problems like the euro, Schenghen, a decade of negotiation, fisheries, migration, possible veto by any one of 27 EU nations)

Think about it. Why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing well and you're high in the polls? You wouldn't take the risk, referendums are horribly risky, pointless

But then, why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing badly and everyone hates you, again you are simply offering the voters a chance to give you a kicking and vote against anything you desire

The only way we might Rejoin is if we are literally starving to death and some national coalition proposes it as the only solution, but then the Europeans will surely veto us as a basket case that will drag down the EU economy

We are never going to Rejoin. It is not practical politics in the real world. Better to accept it

I think this looked to be true pre-Trump, and pre the time when Trumpism might shape the USA for the long term. I don't think it looks certain now.

Why? I know TRIP, the Rory and Campbell show, is not universally popular but the most recent discussion is pretty chilling on the evidence for the direction the USA is going in

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0fdoOxkN4o

Rory fucking Stewart is a fucking imbecile. Really. Alistair Campbell is a depressed alcoholic with a huge guilt trip about Iraq. Together they have the political acuity of a cheese toastie

However, I said 95% certain we won't rejoin and not 100% because, black swans

A massive world war, or the USA become a hostile dictatorship would indeed be a very black swan and easily enough to see us back in the EU (and there would probably be even greater sequelae)

But, I don't any of these as more than 5% possibilities, combined

Point taken, though it is possible to miss the wood for your ad hominem trees. (And Rory was my MP, and I wish he still was, and he is genuinely interesting. They are both, in TS Eliot's words 'wounded surgeons').

In probabilities, I think the chance of straight Rejoin EU is fairly small, but the chance (say in the next generation) of some sort of deal, the Switzerland or Norway sort, is more like 30%.

Additionally, the chances of America ceasing to be an active ally and turning its attention away from Europe and NATO are not negligible. Wait and see. We are only 10 days in to the new reality.

Their analysis of Trump (I just watched ten minutes of it) is on the level of a quite bright sixth former. I am regularly astonished by the way apparently clever people - such as you - buy this intellectual pap tricked out as powerful insight

Says the guy who voted for Starmer.

I'm watching more of it now, it's pure midwittery and entirely shite

Stewart has just said "Trump is calling for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza" which is such a ridiculous misreading it is either a deliberate lie OR more evidence that they really are quite dim

Trump thinks outside the box. He is saying "maybe the Gazans would be better off giving up on their shit lives in Gaza and having a much richer, more peaceful life elsewhere". And, of course, Trump has a very good point. Hamas wants the Palestinians trapped in Gaza forever, their misery endless, their suffering a constant source of grevance and militancy - because we all know Israel will never agree to a 2 state solution, not now

And yet Trump saying "Hey here's a better choice for Gazans than the endless pain that Hamas offers" is somehow Trump calling for ethnic cleansing?! According to Rory "wow who knew immigration was so high" Stewart?

Enuff. Only idiots are taken in by this pabulum. I am disappointed @algarkirk is one of them

I know two otherwise-sensible people who have paid actual money to see Stewart and Campbell in a theatre.

Destroying a region's infrastructure, blocking supplies and encouraging the inhabitants to seek refuge elsewhere so that other people (of a different ethnicity) can move in and build their own homes and infrastructure funded by government isn't ethnic cleansing?
He may not be directly calling for it but he is tacitly supporting it.

Trump is offering a better future for Gazans than Hamas or the Palestinian Authority are offering. Its realpolitik

Also, it's not like this is some unprecedented evil; deliberate population movements - to solve intractable problems - happen all the time. Greeks and Turks after WW1, Muslims and Hindus at Partition, Germans after WW2, and many others

The alternative is that the Palestinians continue to squat there in perpetual misery because

1. Israel now won't ever yield to a two state solution

and

2. The Palestinians cannot defeat Israel, and nor can anyone else without nuking them (and getting nuked in return) and thereby rendering the entire Levant uninhabitable for 20,000 years

What wonderful examples of things that aren't 'ethnic cleansing'. Idiot.

Which is why I called it a “ridiculous misreading” of Trump

I mean, go ahead and call it “ethnic cleansing” if you want, that enables you to ignore the fact it’s actually an imaginative and humane solution to this hideous 70 year nightmare

In an ideal world Israelis would get over October 7 and ask for 2 states and Gazans would not be enraged anti Semites. But this is not an ideal world, and Trump has bruited the only possible solution that might make Palestinian lives a lot better and fast while giving Israel security

You and Trump may well be right, and this might be what happens. But as a thought experiment, post the same suggestion in reverse – that Israelis should abandon the Middle East and move en masse to set up a new state in America – and you will be cancelled for antisemitism. And that is what is wrong with Trump's idea.

The shoulder shrugging about Gaza and ideas like this from Trump rest on the belief that Palestinians are not 'proper people'.

Quite the opposite. It’s addressing them as human beings who want a life beyond eternal squalor poverty and martyrdom for Hamas

Yes it’s unideal for them. But it is the only idea out there that might radically improve their lives and in short order

Alternatively you can suggest your idea

I don't have anything new and wacky, I'm afraid. Boring old goal of a free and sovereign Palestine co-existing peacefully with Israel. It's never looked further off but it remains the only long-term sustainable outcome.

I doubt that a separate Palestinian state is viable - not geographically contiguous, the extreme Israelis and Palestinians would also constantly seek to undermine it and the Iranians would always to looking to cause trouble.

I think that the more sustainable outcome long term is for Israelis and Palestinian Arabs to coexist together in a Greater Israel/Palestine/Israeli-Palestinian Federation/whatever. Jews and Arabs coexisted in Palestine for centuries before Zionism (after the 8th century dispersals) and might be able to do so again. The 2 million Israeli Arabs whose ancestors survived ethnic cleansing in the 1940s show it is at least possible.

The extreme Israelis would have to give up the idea of Israeli as a Jewish state and move towards acceptance of multiculturalism and the extreme Palestinian juihadis would have to give up the idea of pushing the Jews out.

Would it be perfect or a panacea? No. Can I see an easy way to get there from here? Not really. But it would be a viable country with at least a chance of working.

I used to think this falls down on "they breed".

However Israel's birth rate is highest on OECD by a significant margin.

I think where it would fail is because of the 3 million or so Palestinian refugees who have been in Jordan (and Egypt and Lebanon) for 80 years and to whom the Israelis have always refused to grant a right of return. If there is a peaceful, multicultural federation, even the spurious pretexts the Israelis keep making for not allowing them their rights under international law would become untenable. Those refugees, added to the five million in the West Bank and Gaza and the two million Israeli Arabs would mean that the 7.2 million Jews would be in a minority in Israel and without some credible safeguards they would not be willing to accept that.

So I'm afraid my Utopian solution of a civilised, cosmopolitan state is unlikely and a continuation of the present situation of oppression punctuated by massacre is the most probable outcome.

Or, alternatively, the Donald J Trump solution. Which, however much you hate him, or Jews, or America, or Israel, is the only solution which offers anything to the Palestinians other than “more of the same, but probably worse”

If they don’t do this I agree with your prognosis. Indeed I can extrapolate what will happen. They will revert to the status quo ante, and then eventually, in 1, 5, 13 years the Palestinians will do another October 7 but worse, and this time Israel will do another counter blow but far far worse, and this time Israel will kill 400,000 not 40,000, and this time the Israelis will drive the Gazans into Sinai and end it

Which is hideous

kinabalu said:

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

There is a subsection of lefty opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that actively WANTS Palestinian suffering to continue, as it gives them an orgasmically satisfying reason to hate Jews/israel/America/the west/the man

If all the Palestinians abruptly moved to luxury condos in Jakarta and stopped suffering these people would be thoroughly cheesed off

It's all performance politics.

Which is precisely where politics is at these days. No-one is interested in solutions, and that probably hasn't been the case since the early noughties.

Are you not seeing anything positive in what Reeves is coming out with now?

It's very positive she's making infrastructure announcements, and far better than the alternative. One positive Labour has done is HS2 and LTC.

However, none of it will automatically just "happen" they have to grant planning consent to it all, take responsibility for making the decision and actively sponsor the projects publicly, particularly the Heathrow Third Runway, which will probably head straight into planning inquiries and judicial reviews again.

One news statement isn't enough.

Yes. Let's see if the walk is walked. Quite a big culture change if so. Still, that's what big majorities are for. No point having one if you're not going to make some waves.

There appears to be rather less in there than the Tories were nominally committed to. I'm thinking in particular of Northern Powerhouse Rail.
Granted, I didn't particularly believe the Tories' commitment to this was wholly sincere. But Labour appears even less committed to it. Infrastructure commitments made under the Conservative government are being edged away from.

They do seem deadly serious about it to me. About ramping things up on the infrastructure front. As well they should be having made growth a defining mission. But we will see. Talk doesn't build anything.

Your interpretation is heartening. We'll see. I'm not saying 'worse than the Tories on infrastructure' on the basis of a bit of vague rune-reading. They've got a lot further to fall before they get into that category.

I thought this was already the case.

Second-class post on Saturdays set to be scrapped

Royal Mail should only deliver second-class letters every other weekday and not on Saturdays to protect the future of the UK's postal industry, the industry regulator has proposed.

Ofcom said the Universal Service Obligation (USO) must be reformed as people send fewer letters every year but stamp prices keep rising.

The one-price-goes-anywhere USO means Royal Mail has to deliver post six days a week, from Monday to Saturday, and parcels on five from Monday to Friday.

Ofcom said Royal Mail should continue to deliver first-class letters six days a week but second class will be limited to alternate weekdays.

There would be no changes to parcel deliveries under the new proposals.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2l0pvy2ew7o

Leon said:

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

There is a subsection of lefty opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that actively WANTS Palestinian suffering to continue, as it gives them an orgasmically satisfying reason to hate Jews/israel/America/the west/the man

If all the Palestinians abruptly moved to luxury condos in Jakarta and stopped suffering these people would be thoroughly cheesed off

It's all performance politics.

Which is precisely where politics is at these days. No-one is interested in solutions, and that probably hasn't been the case since the early noughties.

Are you not seeing anything positive in what Reeves is coming out with now?

It's very positive she's making infrastructure announcements, and far better than the alternative. One positive Labour has done is HS2 and LTC.

However, none of it will automatically just "happen" they have to grant planning consent to it all, take responsibility for making the decision and actively sponsor the projects publicly, particularly the Heathrow Third Runway, which will probably head straight into planning inquiries and judicial reviews again.

One news statement isn't enough.

It’s all gestural bollocks, I’m afraid

Starmer and Reeves have a massive majority and they could use the sovereignty of parliament to ram this through in weeks, clearing away any judicial obstacles. JFDI. But they aren’t and they won’t, because all they want is the feelgood buzz of “being positive” and “going for growth” without the angst of annoying the Greenier lefties and actually taking on vested interests

It’s yet another menu in the Paralysis Cafe, they just changed the font

Yes, I think that's more likely.

I hope I'm wrong.

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

There is a subsection of lefty opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that actively WANTS Palestinian suffering to continue, as it gives them an orgasmically satisfying reason to hate Jews/israel/America/the west/the man

If all the Palestinians abruptly moved to luxury condos in Jakarta and stopped suffering these people would be thoroughly cheesed off

It's all performance politics.

Which is precisely where politics is at these days. No-one is interested in solutions, and that probably hasn't been the case since the early noughties.

Are you not seeing anything positive in what Reeves is coming out with now?

It's very positive she's making infrastructure announcements, and far better than the alternative. One positive Labour has done is HS2 and LTC.

However, none of it will automatically just "happen" they have to grant planning consent to it all, take responsibility for making the decision and actively sponsor the projects publicly, particularly the Heathrow Third Runway, which will probably head straight into planning inquiries and judicial reviews again.

One news statement isn't enough.

It’s all gestural bollocks, I’m afraid

Starmer and Reeves have a massive majority and they could use the sovereignty of parliament to ram this through in weeks, clearing away any judicial obstacles. JFDI. But they aren’t and they won’t, because all they want is the feelgood buzz of “being positive” and “going for growth” without the angst of annoying the Greenier lefties and actually taking on vested interests

It’s yet another menu in the Paralysis Cafe, they just changed the font

Yes, I think that's more likely.

I hope I'm wrong.

But it is at the very least getting the conversation in the right place for the next Refcon Government.

Taz said:

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

There is a subsection of lefty opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that actively WANTS Palestinian suffering to continue, as it gives them an orgasmically satisfying reason to hate Jews/israel/America/the west/the man

If all the Palestinians abruptly moved to luxury condos in Jakarta and stopped suffering these people would be thoroughly cheesed off

It's all performance politics.

Which is precisely where politics is at these days. No-one is interested in solutions, and that probably hasn't been the case since the early noughties.

Are you not seeing anything positive in what Reeves is coming out with now?

It's very positive she's making infrastructure announcements, and far better than the alternative. One positive Labour has done is HS2 and LTC.

However, none of it will automatically just "happen" they have to grant planning consent to it all, take responsibility for making the decision and actively sponsor the projects publicly, particularly the Heathrow Third Runway, which will probably head straight into planning inquiries and judicial reviews again.

One news statement isn't enough.

The tactic will probably be numerous judicial reviews on various points of law to delay and delay and delay.

I am sure the crowdfunders will be underway imminently.

I do admire what Reeves is doing, or starting to do, not just a proper dialogue on growth but some action. I have been quite critical of her before. I just think this goes hand in hand with reforming the whole process which sees frivolous appeals and tactics used to delay projects even ones, like the A66 upgrade, which have overwhelming local support.

It's nothing she couldn't have announced in July, within weeks of winning the GE. They've wasted 6 months realising that the civil service expect them to have a plan, not to be presented with one that matches their politics upon taking office.

But, better late than never.

@juddlegum.bsky.social‬

The head of the FAA, Mike Whitaker, resigned on January 20 — one year into his 5 year term — after facing relentless criticism from Musk for not approving SpaceX missions quickly enough.

The Senate confirmed him unanimously in 2023.

No acting FAA head has been appointed.

Carnyx said:

Taz said:

Battlebus said:

What will Rejoin give us?

People like Femi, that bellend with the Top Hat and a few die hard remain obsessives here will be able to STFU.

So that is a positive.

On the other hand, our Brexiters will sound off even more than they do now?

Brexit is one of the few words I have muted on twitter.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Can you spot the section written by his lawyers?

The Bishop of Liverpool has announced his retirement after allegations of sexual assault and harassment were made against him.

The Right Reverend Dr John Perumbalath said he did not want to be a "distraction" after claims made by two women were outlined in a Channel 4 News investigation.

He said it was "not a resignation occasioned by fault or by any admission of liability".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq6gze93mpno

Interesting. The slightly odd thing is that the Archbishop of York has hung on, despite now being 66, so he is now suitable for a discreet retirement, and being absolutely bang to rights with smoking gun in hand on three decisions about David Tudor, all made in full knowledge of his record (twice reappointing as Rural Dean, appointment as Honorary Canon of Chelmsford Cathedral) all of which are incomprehensible.

algarkirk said:

Taz said:

MattW said:

Taz said:

Sandpit said:

Taz said:

MattW said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

We will never Rejoin because it will never be worth any UK government expending the political capital required (and this is setting aside problems like the euro, Schenghen, a decade of negotiation, fisheries, migration, possible veto by any one of 27 EU nations)

Think about it. Why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing well and you're high in the polls? You wouldn't take the risk, referendums are horribly risky, pointless

But then, why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing badly and everyone hates you, again you are simply offering the voters a chance to give you a kicking and vote against anything you desire

The only way we might Rejoin is if we are literally starving to death and some national coalition proposes it as the only solution, but then the Europeans will surely veto us as a basket case that will drag down the EU economy

We are never going to Rejoin. It is not practical politics in the real world. Better to accept it

I think this looked to be true pre-Trump, and pre the time when Trumpism might shape the USA for the long term. I don't think it looks certain now.

Why? I know TRIP, the Rory and Campbell show, is not universally popular but the most recent discussion is pretty chilling on the evidence for the direction the USA is going in

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0fdoOxkN4o

Rory fucking Stewart is a fucking imbecile. Really. Alistair Campbell is a depressed alcoholic with a huge guilt trip about Iraq. Together they have the political acuity of a cheese toastie

However, I said 95% certain we won't rejoin and not 100% because, black swans

A massive world war, or the USA become a hostile dictatorship would indeed be a very black swan and easily enough to see us back in the EU (and there would probably be even greater sequelae)

But, I don't any of these as more than 5% possibilities, combined

Point taken, though it is possible to miss the wood for your ad hominem trees. (And Rory was my MP, and I wish he still was, and he is genuinely interesting. They are both, in TS Eliot's words 'wounded surgeons').

In probabilities, I think the chance of straight Rejoin EU is fairly small, but the chance (say in the next generation) of some sort of deal, the Switzerland or Norway sort, is more like 30%.

Additionally, the chances of America ceasing to be an active ally and turning its attention away from Europe and NATO are not negligible. Wait and see. We are only 10 days in to the new reality.

Their analysis of Trump (I just watched ten minutes of it) is on the level of a quite bright sixth former. I am regularly astonished by the way apparently clever people - such as you - buy this intellectual pap tricked out as powerful insight

Says the guy who voted for Starmer.

I'm watching more of it now, it's pure midwittery and entirely shite

Stewart has just said "Trump is calling for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza" which is such a ridiculous misreading it is either a deliberate lie OR more evidence that they really are quite dim

Trump thinks outside the box. He is saying "maybe the Gazans would be better off giving up on their shit lives in Gaza and having a much richer, more peaceful life elsewhere". And, of course, Trump has a very good point. Hamas wants the Palestinians trapped in Gaza forever, their misery endless, their suffering a constant source of grevance and militancy - because we all know Israel will never agree to a 2 state solution, not now

And yet Trump saying "Hey here's a better choice for Gazans than the endless pain that Hamas offers" is somehow Trump calling for ethnic cleansing?! According to Rory "wow who knew immigration was so high" Stewart?

Enuff. Only idiots are taken in by this pabulum. I am disappointed @algarkirk is one of them

I know two otherwise-sensible people who have paid actual money to see Stewart and Campbell in a theatre.

I'd be more likely to go and hear Bad Al and Rory the Tory than I would say the News Agents.

I know that in some areas they have significant specialist and personal knowledge beyond what I have, whereas Maitlis, Lewis Goodall et al seem to be repeating fairly general current affairs stuff I was aware of a fortnight previously.

The News Agents are more like a "Portrait of the Week" column, with relatively little depth.

I'm more questioning of the format than the quality.

People are paying £40 or so a time to go and see these three twats sit on stage and pontificate in theatres. They have just announced another three "gigs" so they must have some sort of appeal/fan base for their generic bland centrist Dad chatting.

1,000 tickets at £40 each, minus a couple of grand in room hire and staging. Not a bad gig if you can get it.

Not bad at all especially when you consider it is just 3 people sitting in a chair talking so would have far fewer overheads than a musical or play where you have a full cast plus many people behind the scenes.

No wonder people go into Podcasting. If you can make it work you can make a good living.

It seems to be mainly the centrists and the left in the UK dominating. The US seems to be more spread across the political range.

Mind you I would guess if GB News looked to do this the online left wing activists would bombard all of the venues with demands the shows are not held and the shows would not be allowed to go ahead.

The Right / Far Right tend to have larger Youtube followings - eg Mahar Tousi, Black Belt Barrister are both up around 750k.

Live shows tend to be more like the Tommy Robinson demonstration.

Are there any former Tory pols who have done anything live, such as Fizzy Lizzy? Or perhaps they think it beneath them?

Is Black Belt Barrister far right ?

I used to watch his videos a year or so ago and he was interesting but apolotical. It was matters of law he commented on. Mundane stuff. Private Parking, TV License, Close pass cycling etc etc.

He has rapidly become unwatchable.

Yes, this seems to be the case. Someone, I cannot remember who, posted an interesting comment about how traffic is driven. It seems the monetisation is important. There are accounts on twitter that promote youtube as a way of generating passive income all dependent on driving traffic.

It is sad that otherwise rational and thoughtful accounts end up doing this. I found his videos informative when i watched them but it was probably 2023 I last saw one.

Gardenwalker said:

Taz said:

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

There is a subsection of lefty opinion - we see flashes of it on here - that actively WANTS Palestinian suffering to continue, as it gives them an orgasmically satisfying reason to hate Jews/israel/America/the west/the man

If all the Palestinians abruptly moved to luxury condos in Jakarta and stopped suffering these people would be thoroughly cheesed off

It's all performance politics.

Which is precisely where politics is at these days. No-one is interested in solutions, and that probably hasn't been the case since the early noughties.

Are you not seeing anything positive in what Reeves is coming out with now?

It's very positive she's making infrastructure announcements, and far better than the alternative. One positive Labour has done is HS2 and LTC.

However, none of it will automatically just "happen" they have to grant planning consent to it all, take responsibility for making the decision and actively sponsor the projects publicly, particularly the Heathrow Third Runway, which will probably head straight into planning inquiries and judicial reviews again.

One news statement isn't enough.

The tactic will probably be numerous judicial reviews on various points of law to delay and delay and delay.

I am sure the crowdfunders will be underway imminently.

I do admire what Reeves is doing, or starting to do, not just a proper dialogue on growth but some action. I have been quite critical of her before. I just think this goes hand in hand with reforming the whole process which sees frivolous appeals and tactics used to delay projects even ones, like the A66 upgrade, which have overwhelming local support.

At the very least, the political focus means we can have a discussion and attention to the disastrous planning and judicial review regime.

Rachel and Keir have their Scargill, if they want one.

Limiting the jurisdiction of courts is always a two edged sword. When it came to the Rwanda nonsense many Labour supporters (and me) would have been pleased to see lots of barriers to its implementation being put in the way by multitudinous legal cases.

Tyranny of any sort will always either bypass the courts or subvert them.

Malmesbury said:

Scott_xP said:

@juddlegum.bsky.social‬

The head of the FAA, Mike Whitaker, resigned on January 20 — one year into his 5 year term — after facing relentless criticism from Musk for not approving SpaceX missions quickly enough.

The Senate confirmed him unanimously in 2023.

No acting FAA head has been appointed.

Mike Whitaker was facing criticism from every single launch company.

The new regulations being brought in by the FAA actually made things worse - no actual improvement in oversight but big increases in paperwork for no apparent added value.

Sounds like the FCA and PRA over here, more paperwork with no actual oversight improvement, just box ticking and arse covering.

Interesting thread on Washington DC airspace, from someone I usually follow for insights about the Ukraine war.

https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1884861607953506609

It appears sadly that this accident was close to inevitable at some point, there’s so much going on in a very small space and there have been a number of documented and investigated near misses in recent years.

That it’s Washington DC may play a relevant part in the enquiry, in that the airspace has become more restricted in recent years, as has pressure on the operator to allow more commercial flights.

There’s nothing to yet suggest their either aircraft was anything except serviceable, and both were talking to ATC at the time, so the majority of the investigation is going to be into the operational and human factors that led to two aircraft colliding in mid-air.

turbotubbs said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I thought this was already the case.

Second-class post on Saturdays set to be scrapped

Royal Mail should only deliver second-class letters every other weekday and not on Saturdays to protect the future of the UK's postal industry, the industry regulator has proposed.

Ofcom said the Universal Service Obligation (USO) must be reformed as people send fewer letters every year but stamp prices keep rising.

The one-price-goes-anywhere USO means Royal Mail has to deliver post six days a week, from Monday to Saturday, and parcels on five from Monday to Friday.

Ofcom said Royal Mail should continue to deliver first-class letters six days a week but second class will be limited to alternate weekdays.

There would be no changes to parcel deliveries under the new proposals.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2l0pvy2ew7o

I find the idea of second class post weird. Do they actually sort the second class ones out of the mail bag and then deliberately store them somewhere? I'd scrap the whole concept.

In reality, one suspects 'scrapping 2nd class' would probably result in 1st class becoming a second class service to special delivery......