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Brexit, the UK’s prohibition era? – politicalbetting.com
Brexit, the UK’s prohibition era? – politicalbetting.com
The number of Britons saying the UK was right to vote to leave the EU has hit its lowest level since the referendum, ahead of the fifth anniversary of Brexit on FridayRight to vote to leave: 30% (-3 from Nov)Wrong to vote to leave: 55% (=)yougov.co.uk/politics/art…
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The nuclear developer, EDF Energy, warned that the “lengthy process” to agree to a solution with local communities to protect fish in the River Severn had “the potential to delay the operation of the power station”.
http://theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/30/hinkley-point-c-owner-warns-fish-row-may-further-delay-nuclear-plant
First it was bat tunnels, now fish discos.
I know water companies aren’t hugely popular but the interview was ridiculous. It was more like a tetchy exchange on PB than an enlightening interview.
https://bsky.app/profile/davidheniguk.bsky.social/post/3lgww6hes4c2g
Clearly HPC is going to be even later than the last confession due to incompetence and they've found some silly story to excite our stupid press. Just like a £100m bat tunnel isn't why HS2 is £bns over budget, at worse it could be why it was £100m over budget.
It won't be on the cards for this Parliament, but at the 2029 GE it may well be.
Hasn't the time to rejoin past? The effort to get up to speed again to rejoin would simply take cash and political bandwidth we don't have. Politics is difficult but reorienting business back to EU market would be even more so.
Time for some internal capacity building of state and business infrastructure before we relaunch into the wide, wide world again. We seem hooked on political drama rather than the basics of running a country.
The issues with fish vs inlet and outlet water for power stations have been known and designed for, for over a hundred years.
As for Starmer, he probably will keep to his red lines. But his successor isn't tied to them, and it's hard to see how anyone wins a Labour leadership election without going a lot further.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1884765853025275958
Russian O&G facilities don’t seem to be doing too well so far this year.
All this polling shows is that things are a bit shit and people blame what the media writes about. Not necessarily the facts.
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/zehnjahriger-in-berlin-an-diphtherie-gestorben-schuld-sind-nicht-die-eltern-sondern-die-falschinformationen-der-arzte-13109725.html
To govern is to make life and death and life affecting decisions daily and anyone who isn't prepared for that shouldn't be there. It is in that context that the Trump administration is playing wildly fast and loose and if this is in part a consequence of that it should be highlighted.
As for politicisation of a disaster, I'll brook absolutely zero lecturing on that
from PB Tories who joined the
misinformational pile in for Southport, and that ramp MAGA. Sorry, but Trump is not just asking questions, he is straight up blaming ATC, so dead on valid, even at this early stage, to ask about the ATC set up that day and Trump's effect on it.
There was a good discussion, and some valid criticism, on that academic paper about the factualness of statements across the political spectrum, and I hope other academics approach that in different ways. But for all that, the high level results passed the sniff test with flying colours. Reform do bulk misinformational stuff and the Tories are heading that way. Fact. So don't take the Leeds United fan line of "I'll dish it out, but I'm not taking any of that". As Big G's apologia for all this went "it's politics, you're so naive". To your boys there is no such thing as "no time for politics"
The question of Trump's role in this stands asked, whatever the answer that eventually comes.
And the consumer is expected to find the capital expansion of the industry fur the benefit of shareholders.
You can hardly blame an interviewer for a failure to grasp how to hold the industry to account, when four decades of government effort has done worse.
Compared to the megalith trading blocks the UK is a small market. We no more get to dictate our small rules to the giant than JLR gets to dictate which parts it has to fit to vehicles sold in the US. Leave the EU? Sure. Leave the marketplace? Bonkers - and doubly so when the plan was no plan. Even "Lets Go WTO" suggested that they thought we would dictate the rules to the WTO. The opposite - we are already the supplicants.
In practice we already do what the EEA does because its expensive insanity not to - as witnessed by the UKCA debacle as one example. Most voters have no clue about any of this stuff other than what has been weaponised to them - on both sides. The LDs are right because we're looking at how we improve things now, not being bound by arguments of the past. We're *already* dynamically aligned with the EEA in most things. Imposing bullshit red tape and bureaucracy on ourselves is the biggest act of self harm since...
Ukraine reels from ‘worst-case scenario’ suspension of US foreign aid
If you ask Britons if anything was the "right" decision in hindsight they are unlikely to say yes, unless it was something like 'standing up to Hitler in WWII'. We had some very strong figures on the death penalty only this week. And, within this, there could be buried all sorts of thinking, including from many Brexiteers that it hasn't succeeded in controlling immigration properly rather than the lazy assumption, as far too many believe out of confirmation bias, that it's a hankering for at least the single market and, fingers crossed, full reversal.
Pro-Brexit parties (Reform plus the Conservatives) are now regularly clocking a combined 50%+ in the polls, and are very able to strip away Starmer's majority and kick him very clearly into opposition.
It'd be a very brave move on his part to think that just because it was a psychodrama the first time round that people want an overturn to the status quo ante bellum and that'd make both them happy and him popular.
But they are regulated - so regulate them. You will deliver x levels of service or we withdraw your rights to run this infrastructure. That means the company raising the capital needed or getting ousted and presumably losing all of the value of the company.
Far from their being “spades in the dirt” at Heathrow in the next couple of years, the best they can offer is “planning permission” - PLANNING PERMISSION - HOW LONG HAVE WE BEEN PLANNING THIS - by 2029 ...“maybe”
Utterly shit. Complete failure. We now know this government will be a total failure - guaranteed - so all we can do is sit and grit our teeth and wait for it to end and Nigel to enter number 10
If you ask Brit My guess is that if direct and indirect immigration numbers were down and under control, you'd see a small majority for it not being a mistake.
It's frustrated Leavers that are of the political interest here, not the diehards of the Rejoin movement.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/melrose-s-plunder-of-gkn-is-a-severe-blow-to-the-nation-s-economic-security-says-alex-brummer/ar-AA1y5sMj?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=c2efd9f400ee468ebfd251781d90c9ca&ei=20
I don’t see what we have to lose from signing us back up to the market Thatcher created as part of the growth plan.
They obviously have no ideas, and they are panicking as the economy drives into the sand (a disaster for which they are partly but not entirely responsible). And yet, even though they have realised the immediate emergency, they have demonstrated that they still don't have any clue how to fix it. Nada. Zero. And indeed there are plenty in the party who actively want a fucked economy if it "saves the environment" and they will obstruct the rare good ideas that DO emerge
So that's it. This is their fate, sealed. Nothing will come from Labour except more decline and then a brutal defeat in 28-29
Dispassionately our existing trade and border model today does not work. Never mind Take Back Control, we have lost control. An example. Foot and Mouth outbreak in Germany, DEFRA rightly imposes import restrictions. Because we no longer have an operating agreement with the EEA we can't restrict to the affected region we have to ban Germany as a whole.
How do we enforce that? We have control of our borders, right? Wrong. Load sent in error from France with some German meat on board. Load arrives at Sevington BCP with paperwork showing Germany. Load is cleared for entry (and note that a dodgy operator could do anything on the run from Dover to Ashford before arriving at the Border Control Point...) and the truck departs Sevington.
One Whole Week Later an email demands the load be embargoed because it left Sevington with German meat on board. "It illegally left the BCP" claims the email "without the required import paperwork". Except that it left the BCP having had the paperwork - showing German meat - cleared and stamped by the BCP. One Whole Week Earlier.
What we have today patently does not work. Importers and exporters spend a lot of time and money preparing paperwork - especially faffy with food imports of which we have an awful lot. Paperwork which we have to check inland because nobody considered how we could build a physical border at Dover. At a facility incapable of doing the basics much of the time and incapable of doing them properly. With a management infrastructure that takes a whole week to flag any issues.
The status quo is unsustainable so we need to move to something else. Once you accept that statement of reality then the conversation about replacing it with something fit for purpose is easier.
I don't think rejoin will happen in our lifetime though.
The reason the aviation industry is as safe as it is, is because the politics has been completely removed from it.
This was the first fatal commercial plane crash in 15 years. The investigation will be a very long way removed from politics, despite its location and the likelyhood of well-known people being among the victims.
Brexit was a vote against the status quo with no clue what came next
The specific argument here is whether the original status quo (EU membership) is better than the current status quo (Brexit)
That's an unequivocal yes
We'd have no democratic control of the around 50-80% of legislation that passed through Parliament.
Even worse with full Rejoin, as we'd have to adopt the Euro, thereby losing control over our economic policy as well as our regulatory policy, and, as a debtor country, ending up with an unending series of economic crises.
And why would the EU even want us, despite our gigantic net contributions (from health? defence? education? where?), especially if the referendum result was very narrow, and we'd probably just want to leave again in a couple more years?
Nobody cares about directly controlling trade policy only the effect of it, which is entirely damaged by Brexit. And by the way we still don't have border controls on goods entering the UK, just the other way round, for practical reasons. Not being able to limit our freedom of movement within Europe is a reasonable trade off people may or may not be willing to make.
Think about it. Why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing well and you're high in the polls? You wouldn't take the risk, referendums are horribly risky, pointless
But then, why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing badly and everyone hates you, again you are simply offering the voters a chance to give you a kicking and vote against anything you desire
The only way we might Rejoin is if we are literally starving to death and some national coalition proposes it as the only solution, but then the Europeans will surely veto us as a basket case that will drag down the EU economy
We are never going to Rejoin. It is not practical politics in the real world. Better to accept it
@alexkirshner.com
classic DCA thing is that it has a lot of routes that definitely only exist because some senator doesn't wanna fly through Dulles
@dreyesceron.bsky.social
right on cue during the first presser: Jerry Moran (R), Senator from Kansas, just said that he lobbied the hill for a direct flight from Kansas to DC which has been active for about a year now
Not the most popular but the least objected to is being in the SM/CU structures but not in the EU. SM is possible through EEA/EFTA. I don't know if CU is.
The more America becomes isolationist maverick the more Europe is the only major power bloc with reasonable though impefect liberal and democratic credentials (+ two nuclear armed nations). It ought to be a good time to make a special deal like Switzerland or Norway.
Your last paragraph identifies the problem, and the conversation to replace it with something fit for purpose is where the debate should be.
However, we have so many problems facing the country which are likely to remain for this parliament, that any sensible way forward seems impossible to achieve
What happens in the years ahead are so unpredictable and anything could happen, but rejoining the EU does seem a distant hope for those who want a return to the way it was when we were in the EU not least because the EU is facing it's own enormous problems
'The biggest disaster in my lifetime was us leaving the EU'
Ahead of a new series of The Apprentice, businessman Alan Sugar told #BBCBreakfast if he was Prime Minister he would 'get on his bended knees to be allowed back in'
https://x.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1884859159763451940
You're putting a weird amount of faith in the amazing political skills of Sir Ed Davey. Which is touching, but still
Why? I know TRIP, the Rory and Campbell show, is not universally popular but the most recent discussion is pretty chilling on the evidence for the direction the USA is going in
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0fdoOxkN4o
We will be a radically different country and Labour is considering expanding the right to vote to EU citizens. Why wouldn't they vote to rejoin if offered in a few years.
Good morning, everybody.
However, I said 95% certain we won't rejoin and not 100% because, black swans
A massive world war, or the USA become a hostile dictatorship would indeed be a very black swan and easily enough to see us back in the EU (and there would probably be even greater sequelae)
But, I don't any of these as more than 5% possibilities, combined
Might as well just get on with it.
An era when there was high unemployment but minimal migration, an era when the UK had net emigration and a trade surplus.
If you want to use the 'Thatcher supported it' line then you need to recreate the socioeconomic situation of Thatcher's era.
"Do you want to be able to buy and sell easily to a market of 500 million people?"
Hell yes...
And Yorkshire doesn't have semi-permanent water restrictions as it did through much of the 1990s.
We could have had so much fun with that.
In probabilities, I think the chance of straight Rejoin EU is fairly small, but the chance (say in the next generation) of some sort of deal, the Switzerland or Norway sort, is more like 30%.
Additionally, the chances of America ceasing to be an active ally and turning its attention away from Europe and NATO are not negligible. Wait and see. We are only 10 days in to the new reality.
It really is the perfect place to be at this time of year. Come and join me, PB. I'll be at Det 5 on soi 8 having crisp G&Ts as the sun sets over the potted sugar palms, and the nightpeople come out to play
See you all tomorrow! Have fun!
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/n3c5/ukea
Being in the single market might make it fractionally easier but at a cost of making it harder to trade with the rest of the world.
It would also allow unrestricted immigration from the EU.
So the question is do you want another million immigrants to reduce wages, increase housing costs and wander aimlessly around your town centre ?
Public water supplied by the industry peaked in 1990. Water meters were almost unheard of in the early 1980s, and today over 60 per cent of properties have one. Average water bills have fallen from a peak of £440 per year in 2014/15 to £426 per year in 2020/21. Capital expenditure by the water industry was in decline until the mid-1980s and increased substantially following privatisation.
https://nic.org.uk/insights/long-term-trends-in-the-water-industry/#:~:text=Average water bills have fallen,and increased substantially following privatisation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asiana_Airlines_Flight_214
But I don't expect politics to remain out if civil aviation with Trump's lot in charge.
I know the racists won the vote, but this was a discussion about economics.
Brexit is a failure on both.
Shades of Charkhi Dadri back in 1996, though that was a head-on collision, and of course the most deadly mid-air collision ever.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Charkhi_Dadri_mid-air_collision
Away supporters also displayed a banner in the stands glorifying an intruder who found his way into Queen Elizabeth II’s Buckingham Palace bedroom, days after Prince William was born.
The Prince of Wales, Villa’s most famous fan, attended Wednesday night’s match and was seen celebrating wildly as Villa raced into a 2-0 lead.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2025/01/29/celtic-fans-anti-royal-banners-in-front-of-prince-william/
First I saw it I got all worried but the stewardesses and other passengers said it was a regular occurrence.
It was like the first time I flew to land at Kai Tak.
We flew with friends who regularly visited Hong Kong and as a joke my friend’s father said to sit by the window and there’s nothing to worry about unless I see buildings and water.