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PB Predictions Competition 2025 – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774
    This is a pretty good thread illustrating why infrastructure development takes so long. (And it’s nothing to do with quangos; the fault is with the potential hurdles enabled by past legislation, and those prepared to abuse them.)

    @SamCoatesSky was expressing his astonishment yesterday on Sky News that the PM had singled out one judicial review applicant to blame for the legal challenges bedevilling infrastructure projects.

    Let’s fix that 😈..

    https://x.com/MichaelDnes1/status/1883068824578334821
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    Nigelb said:

    I know the story.
    I simply don’t see why it should in itself now preclude any serious promotion.
    He was laughing at the British voter. That is a terrible look.

    Laws on the other hand was probably one of the most impressive Ministers from the coalition era. It is a shame he got busted for something that had nothing to do with his competence.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    Battlebus said:

    Pension Credit is a 'gateway' benefit. If you get it, you can apply for other benefits such as help with housing costs. So there is more of a cliff edge when you just miss out.

    Reform (the action) is needed but again you get into the issue of changing the legislation and whether there is the bandwidth in Parliament for these changes since there is so much more to do.

    Gives Reform (the party) lots to complain about over the next few years but they are unlikely to get the numbers to do anything about it. Seems they are closer to the LibDems than they would acknowledge - wingers without the means or wish to do anything.
    So Reform = Man Utds Anthony?
  • FffsFffs Posts: 103

    Not entirely true as they have more flexibility in how they arrange their affairs, taking income as dividends, using tax reliefs and tax avoidance schemes. A quarter of people earning £3m a year or more pay effective tax rates less than 10%.
    Fair - a small number of people are doing that (not terribly many earning over £3m), but the vast majority earning over say 250k are paying a 47% marginal tax rate which doesn't leave much room to grab more.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "Asylum seekers loitering outside school is ‘cultural’ issue, say police
    Residents of Deanshanger in Northamptonshire have raised concerns about behaviour of migrants living in a hotel near primary school"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/24/asylum-seekers-loitering-northamptonshire-school-police/
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,724
    pigeon said:

    Quite possibly. The social contract has collapsed, and once that happens - when the distribution of wealth and opportunity is very unequal, when taxation of earnings is high, and when most of the money raised produces no apparent benefit for those from whom it is being taken - then we very quickly arrive at an every man and woman for themselves situation.
    Taxation of earnings is not particularly high compared with most of Western Europe.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327

    A £9bn project in London.

    That must be part of the levelling up agenda.
    Well the previous Government used their Northern Powerhouse windfall for scrapping HS2 to fill potholes in Croydon, which is even further South.

    The North now starts at Gatwick Airport.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,530

    Taxation of earnings is not particularly high compared with most of Western Europe.
    Western Europe is not thriving economically and also has many of the same problems of generational inequality as the UK.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    Andy_JS said:

    "Asylum seekers loitering outside school is ‘cultural’ issue, say police
    Residents of Deanshanger in Northamptonshire have raised concerns about behaviour of migrants living in a hotel near primary school"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/24/asylum-seekers-loitering-northamptonshire-school-police/

    We never had loitering asylum seekers before 5th July. Thank goodness for the Daily Telegraph.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    .
    pigeon said:

    That may have been me, as the triple lock is one of my hobby horses, though analysis might be a stretch. It's simple logic. The three triple lock criteria are the rate of wage inflation, the rate of RPI inflation and 2.5%. The olds get a pension markup equal to whichever value is the highest. It therefore follows that, unless wage inflation runs ahead of the other two markers every single year (which ain't happening,) pensioner incomes must appreciate relative to those of workers over time. Retirees get progressively richer relative to the working population, who are then hit with progressively higher taxes and more stingy benefits and services in order to cover the expense of their own immiseration. It's a one-way ratchet endlessly transferring wealth to the aged and it's bloody mental. In all, a failure of vision by that pilllock Cameron even more profound than blowing up the nation's foreign and trade policy with absolutely zero thought or effort having been put into whatever might replace it.

    Yes the triple lock will end at some point, because eventually it would consume the entire economy, and long before that people simply will not tolerate the effects anymore.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948

    Western Europe is not thriving economically and also has many of the same problems of generational inequality as the UK.
    Substantially worse problems, in some cases, because several countries’ demographics are further along the ageing and decline curve than ours. Only France has similarly OKish population stats.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    Fffs said:

    Fair - a small number of people are doing that (not terribly many earning over £3m), but the vast majority earning over say 250k are paying a 47% marginal tax rate which doesn't leave much room to grab more.
    Can I introduce you to Dennis Healey?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,724

    Trump’s approval ratings are already higher than at any point during his first term, and I’d expect them to go higher still in the next few weeks.

    His interactions with victims of hurricane Helene show a different side to him:

    https://x.com/amandafortini/status/1882905663699145112

    I am very moved by this. Being seen and heard is a deep human need.

    He doesn't interrupt her, or exhibit any impatience. He lets her tell her story in its fullness.

    He’s mooted abolishing FEMA. Hurricane victims may be less positive about him if he does that.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    Fffs said:

    Fair - a small number of people are doing that (not terribly many earning over £3m), but the vast majority earning over say 250k are paying a 47% marginal tax rate which doesn't leave much room to grab more.
    If you are earning 250k why wouldnt you put significant money into a pension and not pay higher rate tax on it now? If you are earning over a period of time, you will quickly accummulate investments on which you pay less tax too.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    RobD said:

    Who decided that no bat death is acceptable?
    Robin?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812
    edited January 25
    Francis said:

    Ask Kinabalu. He seems to blame most of the worlds problems on sexism and racism. Luxury beliefs for a man living in luxury.
    I realize we're meant to celebrate racism and sexism now, following the "vibe shift", but I am a hold-out and proud of it. I wait patiently for things to come back around.
  • Not entirely true as they have more flexibility in how they arrange their affairs, taking income as dividends, using tax reliefs and tax avoidance schemes. A quarter of people earning £3m a year or more pay effective tax rates less than 10%.
    I would like to see a calculation showing £3m income at less than 10% rate.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,205
    Nigelb said:

    This is a pretty good thread illustrating why infrastructure development takes so long. (And it’s nothing to do with quangos; the fault is with the potential hurdles enabled by past legislation, and those prepared to abuse them.)

    @SamCoatesSky was expressing his astonishment yesterday on Sky News that the PM had singled out one judicial review applicant to blame for the legal challenges bedevilling infrastructure projects.

    Let’s fix that 😈..

    https://x.com/MichaelDnes1/status/1883068824578334821

    From that thread: (You might ask ‘how does funding a campaign to sue the government repeatedly’ square with the FIT’s stated charity goal of promoting bus networks. That’s one for the Charity Commission. Perhaps the lawyers take their fees in travel cards)

    Well, it made me laugh as I lose money on a series of slow horses.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    There are several types of stops on a road - supermarkets, houses, petrol stations, Churches, car parks, and anywhere you decide to stop, so one needs to be specific. A railway only has railway stations. Hence there being no need to call them train stations. Mindlessly parroting Americanisms is a sign of filling your brain with too much shit American TV.
    Not quite. It is more classist and reactionary than that. People - my generation - who object to 'train station' don't generally object to the equally redundant 'railway station' especially when 'railway' is given three syllables. In the end, it's that 'railway station' is found in the novels of Anthony Trollope and 'train station' isn't.

    Actually it's quite exciting when surrounded by 'train station' speakers, as they are generally about 40 years younger than me and nice.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482
    kjh said:



    Thank goodness the open season on the haggis ends today. The poor creature has been hunted to near extinction. Nigel Farage, at the Glasgow hunt, said it was a British tradition and we should be proud of it at which point hunt saboteurs rioted. Police made several arrests.

    It's just the plastic anorak Haggi (I point you to several sources) that are left really.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948

    Can I introduce you to Dennis Healey?
    As I’ve mentioned before my effective tax rate (not just marginal rate, actual effective rate over my entire income) is 53%. Anyone paying less than 50% doesn’t know they’re born.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,724
    edited January 25
    Deleted - beaten to the joke
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280

    If you are earning 250k why wouldnt you put significant money into a pension and not pay higher rate tax on it now? If you are earning over a period of time, you will quickly accummulate investments on which you pay less tax too.
    Some real world data available here for those interested:

    https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/bn27.2020.pdf

    Headline rates and actual rates vary substantially.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948

    If you are earning 250k why wouldnt you put significant money into a pension and not pay higher rate tax on it now? If you are earning over a period of time, you will quickly accummulate investments on which you pay less tax too.
    Because you’re capped at 10k contributions
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    TimS said:

    Because you’re capped at 10k contributions
    Fair enough once you get that high but EIS, SEIS, VCTs, ISAs still available.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,205
    glw said:

    .

    Yes the triple lock will end at some point, because eventually it would consume the entire economy, and long before that people simply will not tolerate the effects anymore.
    Yes, at some point but not now, and not even next year. The triple lock for the time being is a distraction from the cost of higher rate tax relief on pension contributions, which curiously favours the well-paid pundits who bang on about the triple lock, and also perhaps the cost of public sector pensions (and I'm not sure it is town hall cleaners who benefit the most here).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189
    Ok, here goes

    1.Labour 38, Tories 36, Lib Dem 22, Reform 39.
    2. Labour 22, Tories 18, Lib Dem 10, Reform 20.
    3.7
    4. 2
    5. 2
    6. 3
    7. 142
    8. 2.7%
    9. £120.5bn
    10. 1.1%
    11. 2.1%
    12 168 Rbl to $
    13. 4-0 Australia. :-(

    Best of luck to everyone else, this is total guess work.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948

    Robin?
    I have a German acquaintance whose job is bat inspector - every time there’s a planning application in his zone of work near Stuttgart he goes and does a bat survey before they’re allowed start work. So it’s interestingly not just a British thing.

    He was aware of the HS2 tunnel controversy. Obviously a big story in the Bat inspector world.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    He’s mooted abolishing FEMA. Hurricane victims may be less positive about him if he does that.
    Maybe not - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20g31ln2wgo

    "Fema official ordered storm crews not to help Trump voters"
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280

    I would like to see a calculation showing £3m income at less than 10% rate.
    See the link to the paper from Warwick.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670
    eek said:

    It will depend on your motherboard and cpu - as it keeping the built in graphics working may or may not be an option within the motherboard's bios...
    400 kW power supply?

    That would do Times Square.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948

    Fair enough once you get that high but EIS, SEIS, VCTs, ISAs still available.
    Which give you tax benefits on exit but not tax deductions on investment.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,724

    Western Europe is not thriving economically and also has many of the same problems of generational inequality as the UK.
    That may or may not be true, but is definitely tangential to the question at hand. I suggest pigeon’s beliefs that the “social contract has collapsed” is hyperbolic.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    Yes, at some point but not now, and not even next year. The triple lock for the time being is a distraction from the cost of higher rate tax relief on pension contributions, which curiously favours the well-paid pundits who bang on about the triple lock, and also perhaps the cost of public sector pensions (and I'm not sure it is town hall cleaners who benefit the most here).
    Unquestionably higher rate tax relief needs binning, but so does the triple lock. I agree that it's going nowhere though. The bloody thing is sacrosanct. Nothing short of a full-blown Government debt crisis will shift it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    TimS said:

    As I’ve mentioned before my effective tax rate (not just marginal rate, actual effective rate over my entire income) is 53%. Anyone paying less than 50% doesn’t know they’re born.
    Even at my peak I was at 45% effective tax rate, I think you need to get some advice because you really shouldn't be paying a net rate over that level, even without avoidance measures.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,724
    MaxPB said:

    Maybe not - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20g31ln2wgo

    "Fema official ordered storm crews not to help Trump voters"
    One official, who got fired.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    One official, who got fired.
    Who knows how deep the rot goes.
  • There are several types of stops on a road - supermarkets, houses, petrol stations, Churches, car parks, and anywhere you decide to stop, so one needs to be specific. A railway only has railway stations. Hence there being no need to call them train stations. Mindlessly parroting Americanisms is a sign of filling your brain with too much shit American TV.
    There's absolutely no reason not to call them train stations either.

    Mindless anti-Americanism is just as bad as what you accuse others of.

    I don't think I watch any shows where people talk about train stations, I use the term as its the default term that most people I know use and it makes perfect sense. If you don't like it, get over yourself.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567
    MattW said:

    400 kW power supply?

    That would do Times Square.
    Yeah. I think my error was not, O, K.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,366
    MaxPB said:

    Maybe not - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20g31ln2wgo

    "Fema official ordered storm crews not to help Trump voters"
    As the newspaper adage goes, "who the hell reads the second paragraph?"

    A Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) supervisor has been fired for telling staff helping hurricane survivors to skip houses displaying signs supporting Donald Trump.

    The agency's head, Deanne Criswell, described the supervisor's actions as "reprehensible", saying Fema takes its mission "to help everyone before, during and after disasters seriously
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670
    Dopermean said:

    It wasn't built as a road tunnel for a number of safety reasons, the longest road tunnel is in Norway and about 15 miles long, I doubt it has much traffic.
    Drivers can't even manage not to have RTAs in daylight and ideal weather conditions, it would just be constantly gridlocked due to stupidity.
    Yes the old "the average driver is careful and competent" myth.

    No - they aren't.

    The average drivers who blame the cyclist for not keeping themselves safe by wearing Hi Viz are the same ones who drive their cars into lorries, bridges and police cars 50x the size of a cyclist wearing 20x as much Hi Viz.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948
    MaxPB said:

    Even at my peak I was at 45% effective tax rate, I think you need to get some advice because you really shouldn't be paying a net rate over that level, even without avoidance measures.
    No, it is what it is. Too complicated to explain. One thing I’m not short of is professional tax advice.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,312
    Andy_JS said:

    Do the hyper-liberals ever blame themselves for the rise of people like Trump and Farage, like they should do, or is it all someone else's fault as far as they're concerned?

    Hmm. The fault is down to a uniparty consensus, caused by a distancing between the elite and the working classes. Hyper-liberals are a part of that, but then again so are people like Peter Thiel, who correctly characterises the techbro side as the Counter-Elite (his capitalisation). So this should be viewed as a class struggle in a gilded age combined with the destruction of the nation-state. Consequently the hyper-liberals are a part, but not the whole, of the problem.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670

    As the newspaper adage goes, "who the hell reads the second paragraph?"

    A Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) supervisor has been fired for telling staff helping hurricane survivors to skip houses displaying signs supporting Donald Trump.

    The agency's head, Deanne Criswell, described the supervisor's actions as "reprehensible", saying Fema takes its mission "to help everyone before, during and after disasters seriously
    A policy inspired by Chump's withdrawal of police protection from those entitled to it who he thinks did not support him?

    Gangster state...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    As the newspaper adage goes, "who the hell reads the second paragraph?"

    A Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) supervisor has been fired for telling staff helping hurricane survivors to skip houses displaying signs supporting Donald Trump.

    The agency's head, Deanne Criswell, described the supervisor's actions as "reprehensible", saying Fema takes its mission "to help everyone before, during and after disasters seriously
    As I said, who knows how deep the rot goes.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    TimS said:

    No, it is what it is. Too complicated to explain. One thing I’m not short of is professional tax advice.
    And it is a free service on PB.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,724
    @Sandpit claimed yesterday that there were only a “few dozen” who were violent at the Jan 6 storming of the Capitol. Politico, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/01/22/trump-jan-6-pardons-regrets-00199743 , says that those pardoned by Trump include “about 600 people who had been charged with assaulting or resisting law enforcement officers, including more than 170 who were charged with using a deadly or dangerous weapon or seriously injuring an officer.”

    Trump has pardoned hundreds who committed political violence in his name. He could do so again.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 676
    kjh said:



    Thank goodness the open season on the haggis ends today. The poor creature has been hunted to near extinction. Nigel Farage, at the Glasgow hunt, said it was a British tradition and we should be proud of it at which point hunt saboteurs rioted. Police made several arrests.

    May save that pic for April 1st and the haggis tunnel to stop them being run over on the A9.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,312
    carnforth said:

    I went through this very busy 8 mile long one today:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hsuehshan_Tunnel
    I have been up the Shard.

    Pause

    I know it's not in the same league, but I just wanted to contribute something.

    :)
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,366
    MaxPB said:

    As I said, who knows how deep the rot goes.
    One can never know.

    But at the moment, we have evidence for one ex-employee. Canning the whole organisation looks a teeny weeny but like an overreaction.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    Taxation of earnings is not particularly high compared with most of Western Europe.
    Unfortunately you get poor value for what you do pay - public services aren't up to much in many areas - and housing costs are horrendous. The existing settlement is still quite good to you if you are an outright homeowner, and especially a retired one. For younger and less well-off people it is rubbish. And the bigger the gap grows between haves and have nots, with the former obliged to rely more on their own resources in areas such as healthcare, the greater the tendency to guard wealth jealously and resent being asked to stump up to help the less fortunate.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    TimS said:

    No, it is what it is. Too complicated to explain. One thing I’m not short of is professional tax advice.
    Fair enough, I had a year where my total deduction rate was ~55% but that included an 11% pension contribution for the year to maximise the annual allowance.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670
    DavidL said:

    Ok, here goes

    1.Labour 38, Tories 36, Lib Dem 22, Reform 39.
    2. Labour 22, Tories 18, Lib Dem 10, Reform 20.
    3.7
    4. 2
    5. 2
    6. 3
    7. 142
    8. 2.7%
    9. £120.5bn
    10. 1.1%
    11. 2.1%
    12 168 Rbl to $
    13. 4-0 Australia. :-(

    Best of luck to everyone else, this is total guess work.

    Is the Ashes Series the current one (24-25) or the 25-26 one running at this time next year? We should be told.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189
    Battlebus said:

    May save that pic for April 1st and the haggis tunnel to stop them being run over on the A9.
    That can't be a haggis. Haggis always have one sides legs longer than the other so they can run around hills.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824
    Andy_JS said:

    "Asylum seekers loitering outside school is ‘cultural’ issue, say police
    Residents of Deanshanger in Northamptonshire have raised concerns about behaviour of migrants living in a hotel near primary school"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/24/asylum-seekers-loitering-northamptonshire-school-police/

    That’s reassuring for the parents, isn’t it?

    “Yeah OK they might abduct your kids, but it’s just a “cultural issue””

    Honestly, this stuff is going to DESTROY Labour, and guarantee a Reform government
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,724
    pigeon said:

    Unfortunately you get poor value for what you do pay - public services aren't up to much in many areas - and housing costs are horrendous. The existing settlement is still quite good to you if you are an outright homeowner, and especially a retired one. For younger and less well-off people it is rubbish. And the bigger the gap grows between haves and have nots, with the former obliged to rely more on their own resources in areas such as healthcare, the greater the tendency to guard wealth jealously and resent being asked to stump up to help the less fortunate.
    I agree we should improve public services and I am also concerned about inequality. I don’t think that means the social contract has collapsed in this country.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233

    ydoethur asked: "I’ve got a self build PC with a three monitor setup on a built in graphics card.

    Ideally I would like to upgrade to a four or five monitor setup."

    Out of curiousity, why? And why not just get (or build) another computer?

    (It sounds like an interesting exercise, though it has been years since I did such things, which would be reason enough for some of us, including me when I was younger.)

    Spend the money on a bigger monitor. And get a proper arm to mount it on.

    £300 for a 34” Samsung monitor now…
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,205
    ydoethur said:

    Yeah. I think my error was not, O, K.
    Consider whether you really need half a dozen monitors now that ultrawide monitors, at least the basic ones, are easily affordable.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948
    edited January 25
    .
    DavidL said:

    That can't be a haggis. Haggis always have one sides legs longer than the other so they can run around hills.
    I trust we’re all cooking up some haggis neaps and tatties this evening. I am determined this year that our children will eat it. I used to give them sausages.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Fffs said:

    The highest earners already pay the highest proportion of income tax.
    Carefully worded; and yet so untrue, when income, and wealth, are looked at as a whole.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    TimS said:

    Otherwise you might get people turning up to the police station asking which platform the Reading service goes from. I trust we’re all cooking up some haggis neaps and tatties this evening. I am determined this year that our children will eat it. I used to give them sausages.
    Re station, where else but a broadcaster would you expec tthem to qualify the word? It might be Rotherham broadcasting station for all one knows.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    DavidL said:

    That can't be a haggis. Haggis always have one sides legs longer than the other so they can run around hills.
    And the wedders castrated for the restaurant trade.
  • Sorry, it's all a bit too esoteric, mathematiocal and economics-based for me these days - I will wait for the next by election - or the Counties - before I make any more predictions.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670

    Taxation of earnings is not particularly high compared with most of Western Europe.
    When I last checked, we were still some way below average, so can should be able to take an extra 1-2% of national income in increased to support necessary spending, without putting us anything like out of line.

    That is perhaps £30-5 bn.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    TimS said:

    .

    I trust we’re all cooking up some haggis neaps and tatties this evening. I am determined this year that our children will eat it. I used to give them sausages.
    https://www.blackface.co.uk/product/pork-and-haggis-sausages-500g/
    https://scottishfood.co.uk/product/cockburns-whole-haggis-slicing-sausage-1300g/?gQT=1

    *entry level*
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,530
    Leon said:

    That’s reassuring for the parents, isn’t it?

    “Yeah OK they might abduct your kids, but it’s just a “cultural issue””

    Honestly, this stuff is going to DESTROY Labour, and guarantee a Reform government
    Alphabet soup speak:

    Cultural issues = pretend there isn't a problem
    Community relations = cover up when the problem becomes serious
    Lessons will be learned = pretend something will be done when the cover up is exposed
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,205
    DavidL said:

    That can't be a haggis. Haggis always have one sides legs longer than the other so they can run around hills.
    Like French cars.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    Nigelb said:

    This is a pretty good thread illustrating why infrastructure development takes so long. (And it’s nothing to do with quangos; the fault is with the potential hurdles enabled by past legislation, and those prepared to abuse them.)

    @SamCoatesSky was expressing his astonishment yesterday on Sky News that the PM had singled out one judicial review applicant to blame for the legal challenges bedevilling infrastructure projects.

    Let’s fix that 😈..

    https://x.com/MichaelDnes1/status/1883068824578334821

    To a surprising number of people, lawfare to delay a project is a human right.

    Even when it takes the form of waiting until the last minute to mount a challenge that cannot succeed. Then wanting to mount another one.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189
    pigeon said:

    Unfortunately you get poor value for what you do pay - public services aren't up to much in many areas - and housing costs are horrendous. The existing settlement is still quite good to you if you are an outright homeowner, and especially a retired one. For younger and less well-off people it is rubbish. And the bigger the gap grows between haves and have nots, with the former obliged to rely more on their own resources in areas such as healthcare, the greater the tendency to guard wealth jealously and resent being asked to stump up to help the less fortunate.
    As I have said before the biggest problem we have is a public sector that is consuming more and producing less, whether it is the NHS with its appalling queues and hopeless mental health care, education with failing schools and a forthcoming crisis in Universities, criminal justice with swamped courts, ludicrous delays and police who, well, are focused on other things, Social work and social care both failing their tasks and armed forces with more admirals than ships and as many generals as MBTs.

    All of them insisting they cannot possibly provide even a basic service without lots more of our cash. The result is that private medicine is growing fast, people are scrimping to pay VAT on the money they are saving the taxpayer in education costs, the Scottish government now has prisoners serving 40% of their sentences before release, our navy comprises 2 broken down aircraft carriers we cannot protect and our army would find it impossible to sustain an army in the field the size of that sent into Iraq for more than a few weeks.

    It is not a happy state of affairs.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,530
    MattW said:

    When I last checked, we were still some way below average, so can should be able to take an extra 1-2% of national income in increased to support necessary spending, without putting us anything like out of line.

    That is perhaps £30-5 bn.
    That's making the assumption that the average is right and being below that is wrong.

    What if the UK is already too high and the average is even more too high ?

    As I said, Western Europe is not economically thriving and it also has similar/worse problems with generational inequality.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,205
    Leon said:

    That’s reassuring for the parents, isn’t it?

    “Yeah OK they might abduct your kids, but it’s just a “cultural issue””

    Honestly, this stuff is going to DESTROY Labour, and guarantee a Reform government
    You may well be right.

    But the article does include the police saying this: We have had no evidence of any crimes submitted to us, or any verified first-person reports. All reports received at present have been assessed to be third-party reports, primarily based on social media posts and not by people who live in the village.

    But you may well be right because such is the power of social media-spread misinformation.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670
    Nigelb said:

    Now that’s the authentic voice of Leon on AI, not some Saturday morning imposter.
    Now that's a thought.

    If someone remakes Blake's 7, @Leon would be the perfect person to voice Orac, the waspish, permanently annoyed, artificial, self-declared genius.

    https://youtu.be/XCg43omcgZs?t=63
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    DavidL said:

    That can't be a haggis. Haggis always have one sides legs longer than the other so they can run around hills.
    Lowland Bog Haggis. The nearly extinct cousin of the better known Highland Haggis.

    They move on marshy ground by rolling.

    The draining of marshes for agricultural improvement wiped out their habitat by the end of the 19th century.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189
    MattW said:

    Is the Ashes Series the current one (24-25) or the 25-26 one running at this time next year? We should be told.
    I was assuming that it was the 25/26 Ashes in Australia. I don't think there is a series before that.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233

    Would have similar adjustments on public sector schemes. I just don't see any reason, particularly when we are skint, why we should forego tax now on earned income to provide luxury retirement. A 500k pot plus state pension * gives roughly average wage - up to that level makes sense to encourage independence and saving. What is the logic to forego tax for luxury retirement barring it being the status quo?

    * The rich can add another similar pot from tax subsidised ISAs too.
    The howling from medical consultants will ensure that onshore wind turbines are operating at 110% of rated power, 24/7
  • MattW said:

    Yes the old "the average driver is careful and competent" myth.

    No - they aren't.

    The average drivers who blame the cyclist for not keeping themselves safe by wearing Hi Viz are the same ones who drive their cars into lorries, bridges and police cars 50x the size of a cyclist wearing 20x as much Hi Viz.
    The average driver neither crashes into cyclists nor bridges nor lorries nor police cars.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189

    Lowland Bog Haggis. The nearly extinct cousin of the better known Highland Haggis.

    They move on marshy ground by rolling.

    The draining of marshes for agricultural improvement wiped out their habitat by the end of the 19th century.
    But surely no one eats them, the fat content is horrendous.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280

    The howling from medical consultants will ensure that onshore wind turbines are operating at 110% of rated power, 24/7
    Well aware my policies will never win an election.....but convinced they would the UK both richer and fairer in the medium term.

    If we collectively refuse to make any fiscal changes that leave a group worse off we are dooming ourselves.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539
    edited January 25
    DavidL said:

    That can't be a haggis. Haggis always have one sides legs longer than the other so they can run around hills.
    Remembering of course the male haggis has its 3 left legs shorter than it's 3 right legs and the females the other way around so that they run opposite ways around the mountain so they can meet for mating.

    Gay haggi have a confusing make up of 6 shorter and longer legs.

    Trans haggi have all 6 legs the same length and fall off the mountain.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670
    DavidL said:

    I was assuming that it was the 25/26 Ashes in Australia. I don't think there is a series before that.
    I thought there was one currently running.

    I keep seeing wailing headlines, but have not been paying much attention.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,344
    DavidL said:

    But surely no one eats them, the fat content is horrendous.
    Not enough fat I presume.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,724
    DavidL said:

    As I have said before the biggest problem we have is a public sector that is consuming more and producing less, whether it is the NHS with its appalling queues and hopeless mental health care, education with failing schools and a forthcoming crisis in Universities, criminal justice with swamped courts, ludicrous delays and police who, well, are focused on other things, Social work and social care both failing their tasks and armed forces with more admirals than ships and as many generals as MBTs.

    All of them insisting they cannot possibly provide even a basic service without lots more of our cash. The result is that private medicine is growing fast, people are scrimping to pay VAT on the money they are saving the taxpayer in education costs, the Scottish government now has prisoners serving 40% of their sentences before release, our navy comprises 2 broken down aircraft carriers we cannot protect and our army would find it impossible to sustain an army in the field the size of that sent into Iraq for more than a few weeks.

    It is not a happy state of affairs.
    Your claim of "consuming more and producing less" is questionable. Take universities. The tuition fee has fallen substantially behind inflation. So universities have seen declining incomes.

    The NHS has seen increased money going into the system, but it is also doing more. Our population is ageing. Older people use healthcare more. We're also still dealing with the effects of Covid-19.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,205
    Haggis – in case the quality has dropped during the cost of living crisis in the same way as many meat pies, it might be as well to arrange some beans on toast.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189
    MattW said:

    I thought there was one currently running.

    I keep seeing wailing headlines, but have not been paying much attention.
    That's the women who are being hammered by Mooney in particular and face a complete whitewash across the different formats the women play.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,724
    MattW said:

    Now that's a thought.

    If someone remakes Blake's 7, @Leon would be the perfect person to voice Orac, the waspish, permanently annoyed, artificial, self-declared genius.

    https://youtu.be/XCg43omcgZs?t=63
    Harsh on Orac and Peter Tuddenham.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233

    Robin?
    At a guess, this is an example of a on Rome who has zero domain knowledge trying to implement environmental protection.

    In that it resembles those stories of numpties DIYing H&S - and banning things in a stupid and childish manner. Which has nothing to do with real H&S.

    Real H&S is a *profession* that has reduced the death and injury rate in nearly all industrial settings to a tiny, tiny fraction of historical numbers.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    DavidL said:

    But surely no one eats them, the fat content is horrendous.
    The marsh dwellers had a technique of slow roasting them to render the fat - like goose. The fat actually part fueled the roasting.

    Experimental archeologists are attempting to recreate the method.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670

    Haggis – in case the quality has dropped during the cost of living crisis in the same way as many meat pies, it might be as well to arrange some beans on toast.

    It's Doggerel Day again, isn't it?

    As it happens I have a haggis in the freezer, albeit an English Haggis.

    No partridges, but definitely a haggis.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189

    Your claim of "consuming more and producing less" is questionable. Take universities. The tuition fee has fallen substantially behind inflation. So universities have seen declining incomes.

    The NHS has seen increased money going into the system, but it is also doing more. Our population is ageing. Older people use healthcare more. We're also still dealing with the effects of Covid-19.
    Yep, things are tough in University land. This poor Vice Chancellor is having to cope with a mere £68k wage increase: https://www.pressreader.com/uk/scottish-daily-mail/20240208/281767044125881
    How on earth is he supposed to pay the VAT on his kids' fees on that?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    nova said:

    The article makes it very difficult to work out what is going on, but it appears that they're actually outside the hotel they're staying at, which is across a field from the school.

    One quote is from a parent worried they're going to go on the school field, so it sound like they're actually not going particularly near.

    Clearly the 'cultural' comment is nothing to do with the "loitering by a school". It's obviously referring to the fact that it's quite common in lots of countries to sit, or stand outside chatting with friends. Doing so next to where they live sounds pretty normal to me.

    The headline is deliberately misleading, which is sadly pretty common with The Telegraph. Long gone are the days, when it aimed to provide serious news from an establishment/right wing perspective.
    Yes, but it gives some of us something to get excited about.

    I don't need it.

    Now going out to work out how to repair my fence, and empty the rainwater barrel before the coming frosts.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948
    edited January 25
    MattW said:

    It's Doggerel Day again, isn't it?

    As it happens I have a haggis in the freezer, albeit an English Haggis.

    No partridges, but definitely a haggis.
    I was in the supermarket yesterday. I asked an assistant where I could find the haggis. He said “I don’t know. I know where the plant based haggis is, but not sure about the meat version”. I suggested they just might be next to each other.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670

    Harsh on Orac and Peter Tuddenham.
    Yes, but I had a listen for a few minutes - and it sounds JUST like @Leon .

  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948

    The marsh dwellers had a technique of slow roasting them to render the fat - like goose. The fat actually part fueled the roasting.

    Experimental archeologists are attempting to recreate the method.
    Wilfred Thesinger wrote a seminal book on the Marsh Haggis back in the 60s.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    The marsh dwellers had a technique of slow roasting them to render the fat - like goose. The fat actually part fueled the roasting.

    Experimental archeologists are attempting to recreate the method.
    At least they've worked out how to make the salt needed for the recipe.

    https://www.1722waggonway.co.uk/post/2017/12/14/salt-produced-in-cockenzie-once-more
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189

    At a guess, this is an example of a on Rome who has zero domain knowledge trying to implement environmental protection.

    In that it resembles those stories of numpties DIYing H&S - and banning things in a stupid and childish manner. Which has nothing to do with real H&S.

    Real H&S is a *profession* that has reduced the death and injury rate in nearly all industrial settings to a tiny, tiny fraction of historical numbers.
    Talking of which did @Richard_Tyndall check in all right after the storm?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824

    You may well be right.

    But the article does include the police saying this: We have had no evidence of any crimes submitted to us, or any verified first-person reports. All reports received at present have been assessed to be third-party reports, primarily based on social media posts and not by people who live in the village.

    But you may well be right because such is the power of social media-spread misinformation.
    I dunno, I just thought after the revelations of the last 50 years people might be a bit less skeptical about “unfounded rumours” and maybe think - well actually perhaps something is going on?

    Silly me
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670
    Carnyx said:

    Yes, but it gives some of us something to get excited about.

    I don't need it.

    Now going out to work out how to repair my fence, and empty the rainwater barrel before the coming frosts.
    You lost a fence as well as the other one (whoever it was)?

    My top tip is a hedge, or wind permeable panels - in my area they are called "Hit and Miss", and are like palisade fencing panels with an extra one on the other side over the gaps.

    Heavy and somewhat expensive, but tend to last longer on my first house which is on the top of an escarpment at the highest point in Notts.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670
    edited January 25

    That's making the assumption that the average is right and being below that is wrong.

    What if the UK is already too high and the average is even more too high ?

    As I said, Western Europe is not economically thriving and it also has similar/worse problems with generational inequality.
    Not quite. Making a comparison with our peers.

    (And I wouldn't direct the bulk of the resources to pensions - things around investment, defence, public realm are perhaps higher priorities.)
This discussion has been closed.