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PB Predictions Competition 2025 – politicalbetting.com

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,598
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Badenoch can't survive these kinds of numbers surely?

    Who else would do any better? The Tories can't out-Farage, Farage.

    The only real alternative for the Tories would be Boris but bringing him back is the same issue they had in Rishi's last year... He's not an MP and getting him back into Parliament involves a by election and that's fraught with danger for the Tories.

    So Kemi survives, IMO.
    Boris should go for the London Mayor's job. That's the only chance the Tories have of winning the thing. He's a bigger figure* than anyone Reform can muster, and stands a decent chance of mopping up some of their vote to add to the Tory's vote and a general disgruntlement with Khan and hope that's enough. Londoners will have fairly positive memories of his time in office.

    *it's all muscle
    In the context of a collapse in Labour's national vote share, London should be very winnable for the Tories with a decent candidate but it can't be Boris. Ideally they'd want someone like Jeremy Hunt who could help them reestablish their credentials as the sensible pro-business party.
    As an outsider to London I feel like you need a bit of indefinable oomph to get the mayoralty, willingness to go against national party and definite maverick tendencies. I'm not sure he has that.
    Livingstone and Johnson followed that pattern but Sadiq Khan is hardly Mr Charisma.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,106

    GIN1138 said:

    Badenoch can't survive these kinds of numbers surely?

    Who else would do any better? The Tories can't out-Farage, Farage.

    The only real alternative for the Tories would be Boris but bringing him back is the same issue they had in Rishi's last year... He's not an MP and getting him back into Parliament involves a by election and that's fraught with danger for the Tories.

    So Kemi survives, IMO.
    Boris should go for the London Mayor's job. That's the only chance the Tories have of winning the thing. He's a bigger figure* than anyone Reform can muster, and stands a decent chance of mopping up some of their vote to add to the Tory's vote and a general disgruntlement with Khan and hope that's enough. Londoners will have fairly positive memories of his time in office.

    *it's all muscle
    In the context of a collapse in Labour's national vote share, London should be very winnable for the Tories with a decent candidate but it can't be Boris. Ideally they'd want someone like Jeremy Hunt who could help them reestablish their credentials as the sensible pro-business party.
    I think it can be. Large swathes of outer London, those with postcodes that aren’t compass points, can’t get enough of that sort of thing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,533
    edited January 25

    TimS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Badenoch can't survive these kinds of numbers surely?

    Who else would do any better? The Tories can't out-Farage, Farage.

    The only real alternative for the Tories would be Boris but bringing him back is the same issue they had in Rishi's last year... He's not an MP and getting him back into Parliament involves a by election and that's fraught with danger for the Tories.

    So Kemi survives, IMO.
    Good evening

    There is no other alternative than Kemi and from the ratings it is clear she remains an unknown and has not cut through yet

    What is more concerning for labour, is they do not seem to be benefiting from Trump's arrival as POTUS

    Anyone who thinks they can predict the future of politics is either wish casting or entirely out of touch
    The mainstream news coverage of Trump’s first days as leader has been so uniformly positive that I’m not surprised. It’s essentially the beeb, ITV, Sky and all and sundry shouting hurrah for the blackshirts.

    We are all sufficiently experienced in the politics of populism to know that his aura won’t fade until and unless he fails economically. The rest will just be forgiven or ignored, as it has been in China since Deng Xiaoping.

    Trump’s Greatest Resistance Could Come From Wall Street
    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/24/opinion/trump-bond-market-stocks.html

    "What happens if the irresistible force of President Trump meets the immovable object of Wall Street? Wall Street will win."
    The most powerful man in America is Mister Market.
    Carville said:" I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody." Wall Street Journal (February 25, 1993)

    He wasn't wrong.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,493

    Badenoch can't survive these kinds of numbers surely?

    For now, yes. But progress needs to be shown or the post defeat malaise will become ingrained, even if Reform's rise is a brief flare (which is not guranteed).
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,373
    kle4 said:

    Meanwhile, in "I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it" news,

    Musk joins German far right's opening rally remotely, instructs Germans to stop feeling guilty and reminds them how impressed Caesar had been with German tribes' ability to fight.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jwmueller-pu.bsky.social/post/3lgljbzm4lc26

    What a weirdo.
    I do not agree here with musk in the least....however most seem to be going increasing fourth reich...that makes you and I the wierdo's
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,493

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Badenoch can't survive these kinds of numbers surely?

    Who else would do any better? The Tories can't out-Farage, Farage.

    The only real alternative for the Tories would be Boris but bringing him back is the same issue they had in Rishi's last year... He's not an MP and getting him back into Parliament involves a by election and that's fraught with danger for the Tories.

    So Kemi survives, IMO.
    Boris should go for the London Mayor's job. That's the only chance the Tories have of winning the thing. He's a bigger figure* than anyone Reform can muster, and stands a decent chance of mopping up some of their vote to add to the Tory's vote and a general disgruntlement with Khan and hope that's enough. Londoners will have fairly positive memories of his time in office.

    *it's all muscle
    In the context of a collapse in Labour's national vote share, London should be very winnable for the Tories with a decent candidate but it can't be Boris. Ideally they'd want someone like Jeremy Hunt who could help them reestablish their credentials as the sensible pro-business party.
    As an outsider to London I feel like you need a bit of indefinable oomph to get the mayoralty, willingness to go against national party and definite maverick tendencies. I'm not sure he has that.
    Livingstone and Johnson followed that pattern but Sadiq Khan is hardly Mr Charisma.
    True I suppose. Well his opponents did try to paint him as an islamic extremist or something, which obviously he's not but may have inadvertently made him seem more interesting than he was. And once he was in there was no defeating the Labour candidate so far into a Tory national government.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,239
    edited January 25
    How many pardoned January 6 rioters will serve in the next Congress?

    I’d set the over/under at something like 3.5, with an outside chance that there’ll be enough elected to form a small but vibrant House Insurrectionist Caucus. Come January 2027, it’s quite likely that some Capitol Police officer stationed inside the building will feel a flash of recognition as a new congressman passes him in the hall: Isn’t that the guy who bear-sprayed me and clubbed me with a flagpole?

    Per The Daily Beast, some are already thinking about a future in politics. Convicted seditionist Stewart Rhodes, leader of the Oath Keepers, was back on Capitol Hill Wednesday, one day after Donald Trump commuted his 18-year sentence. He told the Wall Street Journal that he hopes to work in Trump’s administration, possibly at, uh, the FBI.


    https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/boilingfrogs/the-shame-of-it-all2/?utm_source=ActiveCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=The Shame of It All&utm_campaign=Boiling Frogs_Free Subscribers Only_The Shame of It All
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,541
    Pagan2 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Currently playing a video

    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:



    Thank goodness the open season on the haggis ends today. The poor creature has been hunted to near extinction. Nigel Farage, at the Glasgow hunt, said it was a British tradition and we should be proud of it at which point hunt saboteurs rioted. Police made several arrests.

    My current career is looking after part of the British food chain. So I am not as daft as others on here have been to fall for this trying to kid us with “open season on wild Haggis stops once Burn’s night finish”. You will find the Haggis consumed, especially the ones that end up tinned, are properly farmed, not wild ones.

    The wild one in the photograph probably full of worms and crawling with lice.

    Of course, apologies if that’s just put you off your dinner.
    I had a decently tasty vegan haggis in a bun from the burger van at Kilt Rock, Isle of Skye, in 2019.
    Can it be really vegan, a beefburger cant be vegan it doesn't contain beef....its in the definition likewise a haggis is emcompassed in a sheeps stomach to be a haggis...the only way to make a vegan haggis therefore is to stuff the sheeps stomach with minced vegans
    Haggis is whatever my butcher decides it is. No questions asked.
    well if you have somehow found the worlds only vegan butcher
    A major scandal. Generations of Scots fed vegan food against their wishes. Up there with the Post Office.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,988
    viewcode said:

    Francis said:

    There it is.

    BREAKING: House Republicans introduce bill to rename Dulles International Airport to Donald J. Trump International Airport.

    https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1883247737224987028

    (mutters "...gangster state...")

    Since when would Congress have naming rights?

    It’s located in Virginia and leased by the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority from the Feds

    The board comprises 17 members: 7 appointed by Virginia, 4 by DC, 3 by Maryland and 3 by POTUS. The POTUS slots are currently vacant.

    There is precedent though - Congress passed a law to name Washington Airport after Reagan which was signed into law by Clinton.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,835

    GIN1138 said:

    Badenoch can't survive these kinds of numbers surely?

    Who else would do any better? The Tories can't out-Farage, Farage.

    The only real alternative for the Tories would be Boris but bringing him back is the same issue they had in Rishi's last year... He's not an MP and getting him back into Parliament involves a by election and that's fraught with danger for the Tories.

    So Kemi survives, IMO.
    Boris should go for the London Mayor's job. That's the only chance the Tories have of winning the thing. He's a bigger figure* than anyone Reform can muster, and stands a decent chance of mopping up some of their vote to add to the Tory's vote and a general disgruntlement with Khan and hope that's enough. Londoners will have fairly positive memories of his time in office.

    *it's all muscle
    In the context of a collapse in Labour's national vote share, London should be very winnable for the Tories with a decent candidate but it can't be Boris. Ideally they'd want someone like Jeremy Hunt who could help them reestablish their credentials as the sensible pro-business party.
    Of course it can. Clearly you don't want it to be (I have no idea why - I'm not his biggest fan but he didn't bugger it up too badly before), but that's not the same thing.

    I don't think Reform are going to win in London, but they could badly soak up votes from the Tories, and that means getting a candidate who is capable of eating into their vote. That is not Jeremy Hunt, or James Cleverly (the other vaguely plausible candidate).
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,836
    a

    Meanwhile, in "I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it" news,

    Musk joins German far right's opening rally remotely, instructs Germans to stop feeling guilty and reminds them how impressed Caesar had been with German tribes' ability to fight.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jwmueller-pu.bsky.social/post/3lgljbzm4lc26

    Did he also mention how impressed Tacitus was with the purity of the German race? The AfD crowd would have appreciated that.

    I'm still finding it hard to believe that 'Elon' was named after a character (or is it more a job title?) called
    'the Elon' in a book by von Braun. Surely this must be fake news.

    Also is it really true that Elon Musk's father (who supposedly named Elon after 'the Elon') had 2 children with his stepdaughter?

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/elon-musk-father-kids-stepdaughter/

    Kyle Sandilands: I'm looking online here at you, what's this story here about the stepdaughter? That's gotta be a bulls*** story. What's going on there?

    Errol Musk: No, no, no, I was married to her mother for two years in the '90s.

    Sandilands: So she's not your kid, obviously?

    Musk: No, no, of course not. No, no. I was married to her mother in the '90s, the early '90s for a couple of years and she, I never saw her after we lost … she was actually placed in foster care, you know. But anyways, I never saw her for many years and then about 2014, I think I had seen her maybe around year 2000, and then in about 2014 that's when she came to phone me to say she was, you know, battling and all that sort of stuff and she was 30 years old, she's a lovely girl, and she was really struggling, she had an 8-year-old child and so I said oh you know, let me, let me help and so we became friends and that …

    Sandilands: And a romance struck up out of that, that's normal, yeah, I don't see that weird.

    Musk: Yeah it's completely normal.


    It is worth noting that The Sun and the Mail both reported Musk and Heide Bezuidenhout were married for 18 years, rather than two


    Is it completely normal? I'm all for live and let live, but I'm not sure I find it completely normal.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,835

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Badenoch can't survive these kinds of numbers surely?

    Who else would do any better? The Tories can't out-Farage, Farage.

    The only real alternative for the Tories would be Boris but bringing him back is the same issue they had in Rishi's last year... He's not an MP and getting him back into Parliament involves a by election and that's fraught with danger for the Tories.

    So Kemi survives, IMO.
    Boris should go for the London Mayor's job. That's the only chance the Tories have of winning the thing. He's a bigger figure* than anyone Reform can muster, and stands a decent chance of mopping up some of their vote to add to the Tory's vote and a general disgruntlement with Khan and hope that's enough. Londoners will have fairly positive memories of his time in office.

    *it's all muscle
    In the context of a collapse in Labour's national vote share, London should be very winnable for the Tories with a decent candidate but it can't be Boris. Ideally they'd want someone like Jeremy Hunt who could help them reestablish their credentials as the sensible pro-business party.
    As an outsider to London I feel like you need a bit of indefinable oomph to get the mayoralty, willingness to go against national party and definite maverick tendencies. I'm not sure he has that.
    Livingstone and Johnson followed that pattern but Sadiq Khan is hardly Mr Charisma.
    He was Labour. Donkey in a red rosette applies.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,106

    How many pardoned January 6 rioters will serve in the next Congress?

    I’d set the over/under at something like 3.5, with an outside chance that there’ll be enough elected to form a small but vibrant House Insurrectionist Caucus. Come January 2027, it’s quite likely that some Capitol Police officer stationed inside the building will feel a flash of recognition as a new congressman passes him in the hall: Isn’t that the guy who bear-sprayed me and clubbed me with a flagpole?

    Per The Daily Beast, some are already thinking about a future in politics. Convicted seditionist Stewart Rhodes, leader of the Oath Keepers, was back on Capitol Hill Wednesday, one day after Donald Trump commuted his 18-year sentence. He told the Wall Street Journal that he hopes to work in Trump’s administration, possibly at, uh, the FBI.


    https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/boilingfrogs/the-shame-of-it-all2/?utm_source=ActiveCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=The Shame of It All&utm_campaign=Boiling Frogs_Free Subscribers Only_The Shame of It All

    It’s grimly fascinating living through the storyline of some 90s alternative history novel (“now a major motion picture”).
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745
    kle4 said:

    Badenoch can't survive these kinds of numbers surely?

    For now, yes. But progress needs to be shown or the post defeat malaise will become ingrained, even if Reform's rise is a brief flare (which is not guranteed).
    I think maybe the Conservative Party needs to divorce itself from the idea that repeatedly changing leader is the answer to its problems. Tory polling is poor because of what the Conservatives have done before she was leader, not because of Badenoch. Maybe she’ll be a good leader, maybe she’ll be a bad leader, I dunno, but I think they’ve made their choice and have to stick with her for a while.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,868
    kle4 said:

    Meanwhile, in "I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it" news,

    Musk joins German far right's opening rally remotely, instructs Germans to stop feeling guilty and reminds them how impressed Caesar had been with German tribes' ability to fight.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jwmueller-pu.bsky.social/post/3lgljbzm4lc26

    What a weirdo.
    I wonder when or if the 'He's on the spectrum! He doesn't mean anything by it!' riff will just get a bit too embarrassing for his admirers to brandish.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,835
    Can anyone give me a very brief resume of the right-wingery of AFD? I know nothing about them except that they are totally beyond the pale, but I don't fully understand whether they are Farage right wing or some sort of white supremacist party - that just seems so implausible.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,493

    kle4 said:

    Badenoch can't survive these kinds of numbers surely?

    For now, yes. But progress needs to be shown or the post defeat malaise will become ingrained, even if Reform's rise is a brief flare (which is not guranteed).
    I think maybe the Conservative Party needs to divorce itself from the idea that repeatedly changing leader is the answer to its problems. Tory polling is poor because of what the Conservatives have done before she was leader, not because of Badenoch. Maybe she’ll be a good leader, maybe she’ll be a bad leader, I dunno, but I think they’ve made their choice and have to stick with her for a while.
    I know the ratings of Starmer have given hope to some Tories, but for nearly 50 years we've had long stretches in power for each side. That's not inevitable to continue, obviously, but it would clearly not be a surprise if it happened, in which case Kemi not sparking a brilliant revival would not necessarily be a terrible performance in context.

    Changing leader after a huge loss was needed, but the whole Boris-Truss-Sunak shiftaroo really torpedoed internal party cohesion and its external perception, so an argument for stability, even if less than inspiring, probably has merit.

    On the contrary position, has there been a sustained threat such as Reform offers - even if, for sake of argument, merely as a ruiner of Tory hopes - which makes a fightback for the Tories both more complicated, but also urgent?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745

    GIN1138 said:

    Badenoch can't survive these kinds of numbers surely?

    Who else would do any better? The Tories can't out-Farage, Farage.

    The only real alternative for the Tories would be Boris but bringing him back is the same issue they had in Rishi's last year... He's not an MP and getting him back into Parliament involves a by election and that's fraught with danger for the Tories.

    So Kemi survives, IMO.
    Boris should go for the London Mayor's job. That's the only chance the Tories have of winning the thing. He's a bigger figure* than anyone Reform can muster, and stands a decent chance of mopping up some of their vote to add to the Tory's vote and a general disgruntlement with Khan and hope that's enough. Londoners will have fairly positive memories of his time in office.

    *it's all muscle
    In the context of a collapse in Labour's national vote share, London should be very winnable for the Tories with a decent candidate but it can't be Boris. Ideally they'd want someone like Jeremy Hunt who could help them reestablish their credentials as the sensible pro-business party.
    Of course it can. Clearly you don't want it to be (I have no idea why - I'm not his biggest fan but he didn't bugger it up too badly before), but that's not the same thing.

    I don't think Reform are going to win in London, but they could badly soak up votes from the Tories, and that means getting a candidate who is capable of eating into their vote. That is not Jeremy Hunt, or James Cleverly (the other vaguely plausible candidate).
    I agree about Reform UK’s chances in the mayoral election. At the 2019 Euros, the Brexit Party topped the poll in every constituency except Scotland, Northern Ireland (where they didn’t stand) and London. London was their worst result in England. London was the only GB constituency where they came third.

    Who did win in London was the LibDems.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,598

    Can anyone give me a very brief resume of the right-wingery of AFD? I know nothing about them except that they are totally beyond the pale, but I don't fully understand whether they are Farage right wing or some sort of white supremacist party - that just seems so implausible.

    They're hard to stereotype because they're almost an umbrella organsiation of all the non hard-left anti-regime factions in German politics, encompassing anti-Euro people, anti-green people, anti-immigration people, as well as people who think the problem is that Germany is too obsessed with guilt over the Nazis.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,493

    How many pardoned January 6 rioters will serve in the next Congress?

    I’d set the over/under at something like 3.5, with an outside chance that there’ll be enough elected to form a small but vibrant House Insurrectionist Caucus. Come January 2027, it’s quite likely that some Capitol Police officer stationed inside the building will feel a flash of recognition as a new congressman passes him in the hall: Isn’t that the guy who bear-sprayed me and clubbed me with a flagpole?

    Per The Daily Beast, some are already thinking about a future in politics. Convicted seditionist Stewart Rhodes, leader of the Oath Keepers, was back on Capitol Hill Wednesday, one day after Donald Trump commuted his 18-year sentence. He told the Wall Street Journal that he hopes to work in Trump’s administration, possibly at, uh, the FBI.


    https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/boilingfrogs/the-shame-of-it-all2/?utm_source=ActiveCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=The Shame of It All&utm_campaign=Boiling Frogs_Free Subscribers Only_The Shame of It All

    There were some really extreme people in the last few Congresses, people who appeared to have no interest in the role other than being on TV, and a deep hatred of any institution (even the GOP institution, not being deemed Trumpian enough) and disregard for and 'old fashioned' notions of accepting outcomes and co-operation.

    That number will surely only increase.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,835

    GIN1138 said:

    Badenoch can't survive these kinds of numbers surely?

    Who else would do any better? The Tories can't out-Farage, Farage.

    The only real alternative for the Tories would be Boris but bringing him back is the same issue they had in Rishi's last year... He's not an MP and getting him back into Parliament involves a by election and that's fraught with danger for the Tories.

    So Kemi survives, IMO.
    Boris should go for the London Mayor's job. That's the only chance the Tories have of winning the thing. He's a bigger figure* than anyone Reform can muster, and stands a decent chance of mopping up some of their vote to add to the Tory's vote and a general disgruntlement with Khan and hope that's enough. Londoners will have fairly positive memories of his time in office.

    *it's all muscle
    In the context of a collapse in Labour's national vote share, London should be very winnable for the Tories with a decent candidate but it can't be Boris. Ideally they'd want someone like Jeremy Hunt who could help them reestablish their credentials as the sensible pro-business party.
    Of course it can. Clearly you don't want it to be (I have no idea why - I'm not his biggest fan but he didn't bugger it up too badly before), but that's not the same thing.

    I don't think Reform are going to win in London, but they could badly soak up votes from the Tories, and that means getting a candidate who is capable of eating into their vote. That is not Jeremy Hunt, or James Cleverly (the other vaguely plausible candidate).
    I agree about Reform UK’s chances in the mayoral election. At the 2019 Euros, the Brexit Party topped the poll in every constituency except Scotland, Northern Ireland (where they didn’t stand) and London. London was their worst result in England. London was the only GB constituency where they came third.

    Who did win in London was the LibDems.
    Reform's best chance lies in getting a sort of business/celeb outside politics figure to be their candidate - Nick Candy or similar (I don't think he'd want it, but someone like that). I still doubt they'd win, but if the Tories choose someone crap, a good candidate might beat the Tories.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,493

    kle4 said:

    Meanwhile, in "I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it" news,

    Musk joins German far right's opening rally remotely, instructs Germans to stop feeling guilty and reminds them how impressed Caesar had been with German tribes' ability to fight.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jwmueller-pu.bsky.social/post/3lgljbzm4lc26

    What a weirdo.
    I wonder when or if the 'He's on the spectrum! He doesn't mean anything by it!' riff will just get a bit too embarrassing for his admirers to brandish.
    I assume part of being a billionaire is never being satisfied with what you have and always wanting more, and being ruthless about getting it, but all this mucking about with international politics at a rather detailed level seems a waste of Musk's time, and far beyond what is necessary for any benefits to his businesses or himself personally. I'm sure he'll be fine, but there has to be at least some risk some of his personal goals at least will suffer from these types of escapades.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,835

    Can anyone give me a very brief resume of the right-wingery of AFD? I know nothing about them except that they are totally beyond the pale, but I don't fully understand whether they are Farage right wing or some sort of white supremacist party - that just seems so implausible.

    They're hard to stereotype because they're almost an umbrella organsiation of all the non hard-left anti-regime factions in German politics, encompassing anti-Euro people, anti-green people, anti-immigration people, as well as people who think the problem is that Germany is too obsessed with guilt over the Nazis.
    Thanks.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,106
    edited January 25

    Can anyone give me a very brief resume of the right-wingery of AFD? I know nothing about them except that they are totally beyond the pale, but I don't fully understand whether they are Farage right wing or some sort of white supremacist party - that just seems so implausible.

    Started as a sort of German UKIP but have since evolved into two quite different blocs, almost like Aldi Nord and Aldi Sud, one lot being Faragist types and the others barely concealed neo nazis.

    The Wikipedia entry covers it all in useful detail.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany

    Edit: William got there before me
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559

    GIN1138 said:

    Badenoch can't survive these kinds of numbers surely?

    Who else would do any better? The Tories can't out-Farage, Farage.

    The only real alternative for the Tories would be Boris but bringing him back is the same issue they had in Rishi's last year... He's not an MP and getting him back into Parliament involves a by election and that's fraught with danger for the Tories.

    So Kemi survives, IMO.
    Boris should go for the London Mayor's job. That's the only chance the Tories have of winning the thing. He's a bigger figure* than anyone Reform can muster, and stands a decent chance of mopping up some of their vote to add to the Tory's vote and a general disgruntlement with Khan and hope that's enough. Londoners will have fairly positive memories of his time in office.

    *it's all muscle
    In the context of a collapse in Labour's national vote share, London should be very winnable for the Tories with a decent candidate but it can't be Boris. Ideally they'd want someone like Jeremy Hunt who could help them reestablish their credentials as the sensible pro-business party.
    Of course it can. Clearly you don't want it to be (I have no idea why - I'm not his biggest fan but he didn't bugger it up too badly before), but that's not the same thing.

    I don't think Reform are going to win in London, but they could badly soak up votes from the Tories, and that means getting a candidate who is capable of eating into their vote. That is not Jeremy Hunt, or James Cleverly (the other vaguely plausible candidate).
    I agree about Reform UK’s chances in the mayoral election. At the 2019 Euros, the Brexit Party topped the poll in every constituency except Scotland, Northern Ireland (where they didn’t stand) and London. London was their worst result in England. London was the only GB constituency where they came third.

    Who did win in London was the LibDems.
    Reform's best chance lies in getting a sort of business/celeb outside politics figure to be their candidate - Nick Candy or similar (I don't think he'd want it, but someone like that). I still doubt they'd win, but if the Tories choose someone crap, a good candidate might beat the Tories.
    London Mayor has changed to FPTP, right? In which case presumably Labour wouldn't risk returning it to the stupid SV system - let alone AV?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,239

    Can anyone give me a very brief resume of the right-wingery of AFD? I know nothing about them except that they are totally beyond the pale, but I don't fully understand whether they are Farage right wing or some sort of white supremacist party - that just seems so implausible.

    Not brief. But v long summary here:

    https://www.fondapol.org/en/study/afd-the-german-far-right-at-a-dead-end/

    "In addition to frequent contacts with neo-Nazi groups and identity mouvements, the AfD has been growing more radical internally. This has sparked debate over the possibility of banning the party under Article 21 II of the Basic Law, which states: “Parties which, through their objectives or the behavior of their members, tend to undermine or eliminate the liberal and democratic basic order, or which endanger the existence of the Federal Republic of Germany, are unconstitutional.” The Federal Constitutional Court is responsible for determining whether a party is unconstitutional.

    Supporters of banning the AfD point to the fact that the party’s regional branches in Saxony, Thuringia, and Saxony-Anhalt have been classified by regional Offices for the Protection of the Constitution (Verfassungsschutz) as “confirmed right-wing extremists.” "
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,835
    TimS said:

    Can anyone give me a very brief resume of the right-wingery of AFD? I know nothing about them except that they are totally beyond the pale, but I don't fully understand whether they are Farage right wing or some sort of white supremacist party - that just seems so implausible.

    Started as a sort of German UKIP but have since evolved into two quite different blocs, almost like Aldi Nord and Aldi Sud, one lot being Farragist types and the others barely concealed neo nazis.

    The Wikipedia entry covers it all in useful detail.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany

    Edit: William got there before me
    Slightly tangential, but Germans are very German aren't they bless them. I know a German who is a complete shambles as a person (though very nice) - an eccentric and a complete party animal and always tired and a bit of a disorganised mess at work. Yet to hear her speak, you'd think she was the only one within her company who knew what they were doing and she had to organise everyone else. It's just in them to think they'd be better at running everything.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745

    Can anyone give me a very brief resume of the right-wingery of AFD? I know nothing about them except that they are totally beyond the pale, but I don't fully understand whether they are Farage right wing or some sort of white supremacist party - that just seems so implausible.

    Started Farage-y and just kept moving to the right.

    Founded 2013. Start as a Eurosceptic party. Big party infighting sees a new leader in 2015 who takes them in a more anti-immigration, Islamophobic and pro-Russia party, while a majority of their MEPs left in protest. By 2017, that leader had left the party in protest at far right extremists in the party. By 2024, journalists revealed AfD members had secretly met with far right figures to work on a plan to deport German citizens of immigrant descent. The AfD got kicked out of the populist right group in the European Parliament (the one Le Pen is in) for being too extreme.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,239
    @Leon


    Financial Times
    @FT

    CIA says that Covid-19 probably leaked from Chinese laboratory
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,474

    Can anyone give me a very brief resume of the right-wingery of AFD? I know nothing about them except that they are totally beyond the pale, but I don't fully understand whether they are Farage right wing or some sort of white supremacist party - that just seems so implausible.

    Not brief. But v long summary here:

    https://www.fondapol.org/en/study/afd-the-german-far-right-at-a-dead-end/

    "In addition to frequent contacts with neo-Nazi groups and identity mouvements, the AfD has been growing more radical internally. This has sparked debate over the possibility of banning the party under Article 21 II of the Basic Law, which states: “Parties which, through their objectives or the behavior of their members, tend to undermine or eliminate the liberal and democratic basic order, or which endanger the existence of the Federal Republic of Germany, are unconstitutional.” The Federal Constitutional Court is responsible for determining whether a party is unconstitutional.

    Supporters of banning the AfD point to the fact that the party’s regional branches in Saxony, Thuringia, and Saxony-Anhalt have been classified by regional Offices for the Protection of the Constitution (Verfassungsschutz) as “confirmed right-wing extremists.” "
    My understaning is that tbey started out as a sort of Alan Sked-ite vaguely libertarian Euro-rejectionist party whose focus was very much economic - but that over the past decade - whether by choice or through entryism - have moved to a position of, if not neo-Nazism, then certainly occupying adjacent bits.of the dancefloor.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652

    GIN1138 said:

    Badenoch can't survive these kinds of numbers surely?

    Who else would do any better? The Tories can't out-Farage, Farage.

    The only real alternative for the Tories would be Boris but bringing him back is the same issue they had in Rishi's last year... He's not an MP and getting him back into Parliament involves a by election and that's fraught with danger for the Tories.

    So Kemi survives, IMO.
    Boris should go for the London Mayor's job. That's the only chance the Tories have of winning the thing. He's a bigger figure* than anyone Reform can muster, and stands a decent chance of mopping up some of their vote to add to the Tory's vote and a general disgruntlement with Khan and hope that's enough. Londoners will have fairly positive memories of his time in office.

    *it's all muscle
    In the context of a collapse in Labour's national vote share, London should be very winnable for the Tories with a decent candidate but it can't be Boris. Ideally they'd want someone like Jeremy Hunt who could help them reestablish their credentials as the sensible pro-business party.
    Of course it can. Clearly you don't want it to be (I have no idea why - I'm not his biggest fan but he didn't bugger it up too badly before), but that's not the same thing.

    I don't think Reform are going to win in London, but they could badly soak up votes from the Tories, and that means getting a candidate who is capable of eating into their vote. That is not Jeremy Hunt, or James Cleverly (the other vaguely plausible candidate).
    I agree about Reform UK’s chances in the mayoral election. At the 2019 Euros, the Brexit Party topped the poll in every constituency except Scotland, Northern Ireland (where they didn’t stand) and London. London was their worst result in England. London was the only GB constituency where they came third.

    Who did win in London was the LibDems.
    Reform's best chance lies in getting a sort of business/celeb outside politics figure to be their candidate - Nick Candy or similar (I don't think he'd want it, but someone like that). I still doubt they'd win, but if the Tories choose someone crap, a good candidate might beat the Tories.
    If Cleverly is the Tory candidate he would have a very good chance of winning the London Mayoralty
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745

    GIN1138 said:

    Badenoch can't survive these kinds of numbers surely?

    Who else would do any better? The Tories can't out-Farage, Farage.

    The only real alternative for the Tories would be Boris but bringing him back is the same issue they had in Rishi's last year... He's not an MP and getting him back into Parliament involves a by election and that's fraught with danger for the Tories.

    So Kemi survives, IMO.
    Boris should go for the London Mayor's job. That's the only chance the Tories have of winning the thing. He's a bigger figure* than anyone Reform can muster, and stands a decent chance of mopping up some of their vote to add to the Tory's vote and a general disgruntlement with Khan and hope that's enough. Londoners will have fairly positive memories of his time in office.

    *it's all muscle
    In the context of a collapse in Labour's national vote share, London should be very winnable for the Tories with a decent candidate but it can't be Boris. Ideally they'd want someone like Jeremy Hunt who could help them reestablish their credentials as the sensible pro-business party.
    Of course it can. Clearly you don't want it to be (I have no idea why - I'm not his biggest fan but he didn't bugger it up too badly before), but that's not the same thing.

    I don't think Reform are going to win in London, but they could badly soak up votes from the Tories, and that means getting a candidate who is capable of eating into their vote. That is not Jeremy Hunt, or James Cleverly (the other vaguely plausible candidate).
    I agree about Reform UK’s chances in the mayoral election. At the 2019 Euros, the Brexit Party topped the poll in every constituency except Scotland, Northern Ireland (where they didn’t stand) and London. London was their worst result in England. London was the only GB constituency where they came third.

    Who did win in London was the LibDems.
    Reform's best chance lies in getting a sort of business/celeb outside politics figure to be their candidate - Nick Candy or similar (I don't think he'd want it, but someone like that). I still doubt they'd win, but if the Tories choose someone crap, a good candidate might beat the Tories.
    Agreed.

    It depends whether Labour re-introduce SV for mayoral elections. Under FPTP, the Tories and Reform will split the vote. (Although, of course, it’s also possible that Lab, LD and Greens will split their vote.)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,835
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Badenoch can't survive these kinds of numbers surely?

    Who else would do any better? The Tories can't out-Farage, Farage.

    The only real alternative for the Tories would be Boris but bringing him back is the same issue they had in Rishi's last year... He's not an MP and getting him back into Parliament involves a by election and that's fraught with danger for the Tories.

    So Kemi survives, IMO.
    Boris should go for the London Mayor's job. That's the only chance the Tories have of winning the thing. He's a bigger figure* than anyone Reform can muster, and stands a decent chance of mopping up some of their vote to add to the Tory's vote and a general disgruntlement with Khan and hope that's enough. Londoners will have fairly positive memories of his time in office.

    *it's all muscle
    In the context of a collapse in Labour's national vote share, London should be very winnable for the Tories with a decent candidate but it can't be Boris. Ideally they'd want someone like Jeremy Hunt who could help them reestablish their credentials as the sensible pro-business party.
    Of course it can. Clearly you don't want it to be (I have no idea why - I'm not his biggest fan but he didn't bugger it up too badly before), but that's not the same thing.

    I don't think Reform are going to win in London, but they could badly soak up votes from the Tories, and that means getting a candidate who is capable of eating into their vote. That is not Jeremy Hunt, or James Cleverly (the other vaguely plausible candidate).
    I agree about Reform UK’s chances in the mayoral election. At the 2019 Euros, the Brexit Party topped the poll in every constituency except Scotland, Northern Ireland (where they didn’t stand) and London. London was their worst result in England. London was the only GB constituency where they came third.

    Who did win in London was the LibDems.
    Reform's best chance lies in getting a sort of business/celeb outside politics figure to be their candidate - Nick Candy or similar (I don't think he'd want it, but someone like that). I still doubt they'd win, but if the Tories choose someone crap, a good candidate might beat the Tories.
    If Cleverly is the Tory candidate he would have a very good chance of winning the London Mayoralty
    Not as good as Boris. He doesn't reach beyond loyal Tories. He's unappealing to righties, and why bother to vote for him if you're a Lib Dem or Labour supporter?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    4m

    Latest @OpiniumResearch poll, 22-24 Jan


    Lab 28% -1
    Reform 27% +3
    Con 21% -2
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -1
    (Change since 8-10 Jan)

    Gives a hung parliament but Labour clearly largest party with 303 seats to 138 Reform, 91 Tory and 71 LD

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=21&LAB=28&LIB=11&Reform=27&Green=8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024

    Though Opinium have the lowest Tory voteshare of any pollster

  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,106
    edited January 25

    TimS said:

    Can anyone give me a very brief resume of the right-wingery of AFD? I know nothing about them except that they are totally beyond the pale, but I don't fully understand whether they are Farage right wing or some sort of white supremacist party - that just seems so implausible.

    Started as a sort of German UKIP but have since evolved into two quite different blocs, almost like Aldi Nord and Aldi Sud, one lot being Farragist types and the others barely concealed neo nazis.

    The Wikipedia entry covers it all in useful detail.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany

    Edit: William got there before me
    Slightly tangential, but Germans are very German aren't they bless them. I know a German who is a complete shambles as a person (though very nice) - an eccentric and a complete party animal and always tired and a bit of a disorganised mess at work. Yet to hear her speak, you'd think she was the only one within her company who knew what they were doing and she had to organise everyone else. It's just in them to think they'd be better at running everything.
    I couldn’t possibly comment.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,835
    Thanks to @rottenborough @TimS @Cookie @bondegezou and of course @williamglenn for the info - they sound not good. Perhaps need a Farage to boot out the Nazis.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,586

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Badenoch can't survive these kinds of numbers surely?

    Who else would do any better? The Tories can't out-Farage, Farage.

    The only real alternative for the Tories would be Boris but bringing him back is the same issue they had in Rishi's last year... He's not an MP and getting him back into Parliament involves a by election and that's fraught with danger for the Tories.

    So Kemi survives, IMO.
    Boris should go for the London Mayor's job. That's the only chance the Tories have of winning the thing. He's a bigger figure* than anyone Reform can muster, and stands a decent chance of mopping up some of their vote to add to the Tory's vote and a general disgruntlement with Khan and hope that's enough. Londoners will have fairly positive memories of his time in office.

    *it's all muscle
    In the context of a collapse in Labour's national vote share, London should be very winnable for the Tories with a decent candidate but it can't be Boris. Ideally they'd want someone like Jeremy Hunt who could help them reestablish their credentials as the sensible pro-business party.
    As an outsider to London I feel like you need a bit of indefinable oomph to get the mayoralty, willingness to go against national party and definite maverick tendencies. I'm not sure he has that.
    Livingstone and Johnson followed that pattern but Sadiq Khan is hardly Mr Charisma.
    Khan and Starmer in a Charsima-off would be...very dull.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,541

    Can anyone give me a very brief resume of the right-wingery of AFD? I know nothing about them except that they are totally beyond the pale, but I don't fully understand whether they are Farage right wing or some sort of white supremacist party - that just seems so implausible.

    They're hard to stereotype because they're almost an umbrella organsiation of all the non hard-left anti-regime factions in German politics, encompassing anti-Euro people, anti-green people, anti-immigration people, as well as people who think the problem is that Germany is too obsessed with guilt over the Nazis.
    Yes, they're just a benign German version of Musk /s


  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745
    .

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Badenoch can't survive these kinds of numbers surely?

    Who else would do any better? The Tories can't out-Farage, Farage.

    The only real alternative for the Tories would be Boris but bringing him back is the same issue they had in Rishi's last year... He's not an MP and getting him back into Parliament involves a by election and that's fraught with danger for the Tories.

    So Kemi survives, IMO.
    Boris should go for the London Mayor's job. That's the only chance the Tories have of winning the thing. He's a bigger figure* than anyone Reform can muster, and stands a decent chance of mopping up some of their vote to add to the Tory's vote and a general disgruntlement with Khan and hope that's enough. Londoners will have fairly positive memories of his time in office.

    *it's all muscle
    In the context of a collapse in Labour's national vote share, London should be very winnable for the Tories with a decent candidate but it can't be Boris. Ideally they'd want someone like Jeremy Hunt who could help them reestablish their credentials as the sensible pro-business party.
    Of course it can. Clearly you don't want it to be (I have no idea why - I'm not his biggest fan but he didn't bugger it up too badly before), but that's not the same thing.

    I don't think Reform are going to win in London, but they could badly soak up votes from the Tories, and that means getting a candidate who is capable of eating into their vote. That is not Jeremy Hunt, or James Cleverly (the other vaguely plausible candidate).
    I agree about Reform UK’s chances in the mayoral election. At the 2019 Euros, the Brexit Party topped the poll in every constituency except Scotland, Northern Ireland (where they didn’t stand) and London. London was their worst result in England. London was the only GB constituency where they came third.

    Who did win in London was the LibDems.
    Reform's best chance lies in getting a sort of business/celeb outside politics figure to be their candidate - Nick Candy or similar (I don't think he'd want it, but someone like that). I still doubt they'd win, but if the Tories choose someone crap, a good candidate might beat the Tories.
    If Cleverly is the Tory candidate he would have a very good chance of winning the London Mayoralty
    Not as good as Boris. He doesn't reach beyond loyal Tories. He's unappealing to righties, and why bother to vote for him if you're a Lib Dem or Labour supporter?
    It’s not impossible that we get a very split vote, with the winner winning on under 30%, if the election stays using FPTP. Someone who can solidify one block of voters may do enough.

    Cleverly is at 9/1, third equal favourite with Nigel Farage! Khan is favourite, with second favourite being Reform UK’s Zia Yusuf.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Badenoch can't survive these kinds of numbers surely?

    Who else would do any better? The Tories can't out-Farage, Farage.

    The only real alternative for the Tories would be Boris but bringing him back is the same issue they had in Rishi's last year... He's not an MP and getting him back into Parliament involves a by election and that's fraught with danger for the Tories.

    So Kemi survives, IMO.
    Boris should go for the London Mayor's job. That's the only chance the Tories have of winning the thing. He's a bigger figure* than anyone Reform can muster, and stands a decent chance of mopping up some of their vote to add to the Tory's vote and a general disgruntlement with Khan and hope that's enough. Londoners will have fairly positive memories of his time in office.

    *it's all muscle
    In the context of a collapse in Labour's national vote share, London should be very winnable for the Tories with a decent candidate but it can't be Boris. Ideally they'd want someone like Jeremy Hunt who could help them reestablish their credentials as the sensible pro-business party.
    Of course it can. Clearly you don't want it to be (I have no idea why - I'm not his biggest fan but he didn't bugger it up too badly before), but that's not the same thing.

    I don't think Reform are going to win in London, but they could badly soak up votes from the Tories, and that means getting a candidate who is capable of eating into their vote. That is not Jeremy Hunt, or James Cleverly (the other vaguely plausible candidate).
    I agree about Reform UK’s chances in the mayoral election. At the 2019 Euros, the Brexit Party topped the poll in every constituency except Scotland, Northern Ireland (where they didn’t stand) and London. London was their worst result in England. London was the only GB constituency where they came third.

    Who did win in London was the LibDems.
    Reform's best chance lies in getting a sort of business/celeb outside politics figure to be their candidate - Nick Candy or similar (I don't think he'd want it, but someone like that). I still doubt they'd win, but if the Tories choose someone crap, a good candidate might beat the Tories.
    If Cleverly is the Tory candidate he would have a very good chance of winning the London Mayoralty
    Not as good as Boris. He doesn't reach beyond loyal Tories. He's unappealing to righties, and why bother to vote for him if you're a Lib Dem or Labour supporter?
    Boris doesn't in London now, a very anti Brexit city except for the outer suburbs.

    Cleverly probably has more chance of winning LD voters and swing voters to beat Khan in the capital now
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652
    edited January 25
    We went to see Complete Unknown this evening, the Bob Dylan biopic with Timothee Chalamet, well worth watching
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,643
    edited January 25
    Just watched the very first episode of The Traitors from a couple of years ago, expecting to be underwhelmed, because I'm not easily impressed by TV shows, and in fact it was very good. Wish I hadn't waited so long. I've made a point of avoiding it until now. Big mistake.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,836

    Can anyone give me a very brief resume of the right-wingery of AFD? I know nothing about them except that they are totally beyond the pale, but I don't fully understand whether they are Farage right wing or some sort of white supremacist party - that just seems so implausible.

    They're hard to stereotype because they're almost an umbrella organsiation of all the non hard-left anti-regime factions in German politics, encompassing anti-Euro people, anti-green people, anti-immigration people, as well as people who think the problem is that Germany is too obsessed with guilt over the Nazis.
    like saying '"the big problem is that one presents Hitler as absolutely evil."

    yes the AfD includes some people who aren't neo-nazis. But Björn Höcke, who is maybe the most powerful person in the AfD, is a neo-nazi.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,106
    Cookie said:

    Can anyone give me a very brief resume of the right-wingery of AFD? I know nothing about them except that they are totally beyond the pale, but I don't fully understand whether they are Farage right wing or some sort of white supremacist party - that just seems so implausible.

    Not brief. But v long summary here:

    https://www.fondapol.org/en/study/afd-the-german-far-right-at-a-dead-end/

    "In addition to frequent contacts with neo-Nazi groups and identity mouvements, the AfD has been growing more radical internally. This has sparked debate over the possibility of banning the party under Article 21 II of the Basic Law, which states: “Parties which, through their objectives or the behavior of their members, tend to undermine or eliminate the liberal and democratic basic order, or which endanger the existence of the Federal Republic of Germany, are unconstitutional.” The Federal Constitutional Court is responsible for determining whether a party is unconstitutional.

    Supporters of banning the AfD point to the fact that the party’s regional branches in Saxony, Thuringia, and Saxony-Anhalt have been classified by regional Offices for the Protection of the Constitution (Verfassungsschutz) as “confirmed right-wing extremists.” "
    My understaning is that tbey started out as a sort of Alan Sked-ite vaguely libertarian Euro-rejectionist party whose focus was very much economic - but that over the past decade - whether by choice or through entryism - have moved to a position of, if not neo-Nazism, then certainly occupying adjacent bits.of the dancefloor.
    Interesting question why some organisations or leaders start extreme and move towards the centre over time (Marine Le Pen, Meloni, many current Labour politicians, Mandela, De Klerk, the new Syrian leadership), while others go the other way (Truss, AfD, Jenrick, Musk, Every celeb on Twitter) and still others start and finish in the same place (Farage, Cameron, Corbyn, King Charles).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,643

    ....

    Andy_JS said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    4m

    Latest @OpiniumResearch poll, 22-24 Jan


    Lab 28% -1
    Reform 27% +3
    Con 21% -2
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -1
    (Change since 8-10 Jan)

    It's getting more difficult to claim that Matt Goodwin's new polling company isn't reliable with figures like this.
    Goodwin may well be accurate, although it is handy that his figures dovetail nicely with his narrative.
    I don't think he's stupid enough to manipulate the data of his own polling to suit his own narrative.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652
    edited January 25
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Francis said:

    Eabhal said:

    pigeon said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Francis said:

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all from the embers of Saturday :)

    Interesting to see a faltering start to Trump’s “mass deportations”. Eighty is a start, his supporters might say and I did idly wonder if the plan would be to cajole other Central American countries other than Guatemala to accept the flights. The “America First” schtick is nothing new but there’s a difference between self interest and isolationism.

    Whether it’s an effective method of handling illegal immigration depends on how the new administration chooses to regulate legal migration. The emphasis in the UK remains far too much on “stop the boats” rather than coming up with a coherent and effective policy for legal migration.

    There’s probably a policy out there but it will never satisfy those who see all migrants in a particular way and nor will it satisfy those who view the open door as a mechanism for maintaining economic growth via the import of cheap unskilled labour.

    As with so much else, it needs to be part of a proactive and planned series of policies. Immigration tends to be reactive and the response to it even more so.

    Trump, pace Reagan and Johnson, is all “glad confident morning” and that works superficially. Indeed, those who believe honesty is the best policy have never tried politics. The electorate doesn’t respond well to the truth after a long period of being told everything was fine. Governments of all stripes and none are struggling to get their economies moving and the economic malaise has social and cultural impacts.

    Ultimately, government and poltics are different things that have to happen in the same space. Boosterism is excellent politics- it gets you into power. But it's lousy government; you can only really run things sucessfully if you have an utterly realistic understanding of the real situation. If your mental map of the rest of the world is a fantasy, you aren't going to get anywhere.

    Some of the mewling we are seeing in the UK at the moment is because we have gone from a government which was biased towards politics to one with a bias towards government. Not all of it, but some of it. So being told the unpleasant reality (that taxes need to go up, not down) is heard as talking the economy down.

    (Note that isn't Starmer's only weakness. But some of the anger is because he isn't pretending that the government finances are tickety-boo.)
    Talking about tax rises isn’t talking the economy down.

    Talking the economy down is talking the economy down.

    The government would have been less unpopular if they had, say, merged Income Tax and NI, simplified the rates, and put up the combined tax a bit.

    Between pulling people into NI and higher rates, this would have raised a fair bit.

    This would have caused a tidal wave of returns from the alt-left parties - Starmer being Proper Labour.

    The markets would have taken this as a sign of *funded* increased expenditure. Government borrowing costs would have fallen.

    Sold as “Needed to save public services, expand defence spending, tough times etc” - it could have been sold as a positive message of taking tough decisions to deliver results.

    Similarly, WFA could have been dealt with as part of a wholesale rebuild of pensioner benefits - “We need to concentrate on the poorest”
    Yes, but that all comes back to the promise not to increase rates of income tax, employee NI or VAT, and continue the Triple lock.

    No incoming Chancellor should tie their hands like that. It leaves them with no room for financial manoeuvre. Dumb of Starmer/Reeves, particularly so for the whole term. Promising it for the first year or two like Blair did would have been better.
    But they had to make the stupid promises to get elected.
    Labour had a 20 point lead for months. They had plenty of room to do what Cameron and Osborne did, and gain a mandate for some tougher measures.

    Instead, they pretended everything would be fine, then in office made a vague comment of tax rises leaving imaginations to run riot for moths, talked down the economy, then hiked NI.

    Labour inherited a very bad economic situation. They then proceeded to make it worse.
    My feelings about Labour are best summarised as better than the last lot, have some of the right ideas at least, but still not very good. What proportion of their errors are down to incompetence and what proportion are the natural consequence of dealing with a miserable and cakeist electorate is debatable.
    Is the country effectively ungovernable now.
    Quite possibly. The social contract has collapsed, and once that happens - when the distribution of wealth and opportunity is very unequal, when taxation of earnings is high, and when most of the money raised produces no apparent benefit for those from whom it is being taken - then we very quickly arrive at an every man and woman for themselves situation.
    Taxation of earnings is not particularly high compared with most of Western Europe.
    Unfortunately you get poor value for what you do pay - public services aren't up to much in many areas - and housing costs are horrendous. The existing settlement is still quite good to you if you are an outright homeowner, and especially a retired one. For younger and less well-off people it is rubbish. And the bigger the gap grows between haves and have nots, with the former obliged to rely more on their own resources in areas such as healthcare, the greater the tendency to guard wealth jealously and resent being asked to stump up to help the less fortunate.
    As I have said before the biggest problem we have is a public sector that is consuming more and producing less, whether it is the NHS with its appalling queues and hopeless mental health care, education with failing schools and a forthcoming crisis in Universities, criminal justice with swamped courts, ludicrous delays and police who, well, are focused on other things, Social work and social care both failing their tasks and armed forces with more admirals than ships and as many generals as MBTs.

    All of them insisting they cannot possibly provide even a basic service without lots more of our cash. The result is that private medicine is growing fast, people are scrimping to pay VAT on the money they are saving the taxpayer in education costs, the Scottish government now has prisoners serving 40% of their sentences before release, our navy comprises 2 broken down aircraft carriers we cannot protect and our army would find it impossible to sustain an army in the field the size of that sent into Iraq for more than a few weeks.

    It is not a happy state of affairs.
    I challenge the assumption that inefficiency and mismanagement is somehow a primary driver of the disaster in the public finances that we face. It's clearly not irrelevant, and doubtless in some cases (such as certain high profile council bankruptcies) there has been demonstrable incompetence. But the primary driver of spiralling costs, of demand for benefits and public services, is need. Need driven in particular by a poor dependency ratio and very expensive housing.

    The state pension bill didn't escalate by 14.2% in a single year from 2023 to 2024 because a functionary at the DWP screwed up the paperwork, councils aren't buckling under the weight of demand for SEND provision because some of their office workers are now doing a couple of days a week from home, and not are they struggling with enormous social housing waiting lists whilst trying to find somewhere to put homeless families because whichever poor bloody sod is tasked with managing the mess is failing to work hard or long enough. Shit is collapsing because need outstrips resource, set against the backdrop of an economy which is badly skewed towards the hoarding of assets rather than productive activity, and the redistribution of available wealth upwards.

    With the proportion of elderly, disabled and poor people we have to try to look after as an economy and a country, you simply cannot maintain the fiction that it is possible simultaneously to have adequate state provision in all the required areas and low taxes, just by magicking the problems away in an efficiency drive. It is fantasy. You either do everything properly, which would entail a major raid on personal wealth, or you have to argue the case for what types of provision we can afford to do well, from which areas the state is going to withdraw, and who is going to be made to suffer as a result. The country is in the mire and there are absolutely no easy options for what to do next.
    The only thing I would add to that is that the demographics simply aren't that bad in the UK. We are not Japan or South Korea, and they certainly don't explain the massive increases in health and welfare spending.

    I think health inequality is the biggest threat to UK welfare state. The distinction between those who fund the NHS and those who receive care from it is stark.
    The demographics will get very bad indeed if we halt mass immigration. Then we will become south korea.
    Not even then. It's genuinely catastrophic, national disaster fertility rates there. To pick a few TFRs:

    S.Korea 0.8
    (Scotland 1.3)
    Japan 1.3
    Canada 1.3
    UK 1.6
    US 1.7
    France 1.8
    VP Vance has the right idea on that, as does PM Meloni. The Pope is also on board as is the richest man in the world

    https://www.cleveland.com/news/2025/01/i-want-more-babies-in-america-jd-vance-says-in-his-first-public-address-as-vice-president.html

    https://www.governo.it/en/articolo/president-meloni-s-video-message-event-la-maternit-non-unimpresa/24223

    https://www.euronews.com/health/2024/05/10/pope-tells-italians-they-need-to-have-more-babies-amid-record-low-fertility-rates

    https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-elon-musk-population-collapse-baby-push/

    Looks like Scotland is significantly lower in terms of birthrate than the UK overall
    As you know this is an area in which we disagree. I don't want to stop people having children if they want them but I am not in favour of the state interfering:

    a) because I am not in favour of state interfering in anything if it can be avoided

    b) the world has too many people and we need to find another way of dealing with the generational problem of the ratio of older people to the young. This is less of a problem than over population.
    Africa and South Asia probably have too many people now, most of Europe and East Asia now have too few people
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745
    .
    Andy_JS said:

    ....

    Andy_JS said:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    4m

    Latest @OpiniumResearch poll, 22-24 Jan


    Lab 28% -1
    Reform 27% +3
    Con 21% -2
    Lib Dem 11% +1
    Green 8% -1
    (Change since 8-10 Jan)

    It's getting more difficult to claim that Matt Goodwin's new polling company isn't reliable with figures like this.
    Goodwin may well be accurate, although it is handy that his figures dovetail nicely with his narrative.
    I don't think he's stupid enough to manipulate the data of his own polling to suit his own narrative.
    It’s not about manipulating the data. But polling requires you to make some assumptions. One might make assumptions that you believe are correct that also suit your narrative.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652

    Meanwhile, in "I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it" news,

    Musk joins German far right's opening rally remotely, instructs Germans to stop feeling guilty and reminds them how impressed Caesar had been with German tribes' ability to fight.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jwmueller-pu.bsky.social/post/3lgljbzm4lc26

    Despite Musk's support, the CDU/CSU still lead but the AfD are now second with the governing SPD third

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_German_federal_election
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,643
    HYUFD said:

    We went to see Complete Unknown this evening, the Bob Dylan biopic with Timothee Chalamet, well worth watching

    Are you a Bob Dylan fan particularly? I'm considering whether to go and see the film but I'm not a fan and was wondering whether it's still a good film even if you're not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    We went to see Complete Unknown this evening, the Bob Dylan biopic with Timothee Chalamet, well worth watching

    Are you a Bob Dylan fan particularly? I'm considering whether to go and see the film but I'm not a fan and was wondering whether it's still a good film even if you're not.
    Not particularly although my wife is but it was a good film and watchable throughout even if you aren't a big fan of his, Chalamet was excellent in the role
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,493
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    We went to see Complete Unknown this evening, the Bob Dylan biopic with Timothee Chalamet, well worth watching

    Are you a Bob Dylan fan particularly? I'm considering whether to go and see the film but I'm not a fan and was wondering whether it's still a good film even if you're not.
    Not particularly although my wife is but it was a good film and watchable throughout even if you aren't a big fan of his, Chalamet was excellent in the role
    I disliked him in everything I'd seen him in until Dune Part 2. So I'm prepared to accept he is not a charisma vacuum in everything as he was in all the examples I'd seen up to that point.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,598
    Eabhal said:

    Can anyone give me a very brief resume of the right-wingery of AFD? I know nothing about them except that they are totally beyond the pale, but I don't fully understand whether they are Farage right wing or some sort of white supremacist party - that just seems so implausible.

    They're hard to stereotype because they're almost an umbrella organsiation of all the non hard-left anti-regime factions in German politics, encompassing anti-Euro people, anti-green people, anti-immigration people, as well as people who think the problem is that Germany is too obsessed with guilt over the Nazis.
    Yes, they're just a benign German version of Musk /s


    Looks like a dog whistle about modern architecture. They're saying they prefer gable roofs.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,445
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    "While Europe's eye is fix'd on mighty things,
    The fate of Empires and the fall of Kings;
    While quacks of State must each produce his plan,
    And even children lisp the Rights of Man;
    Amid this mighty fuss just let me mention,
    The Rights of Woman merit some attention."

    Brilliant. I have never seen that one before. And it remains so pertinent.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/arts/robertburns/works/the_rights_of_woman/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,239

    Eabhal said:

    Can anyone give me a very brief resume of the right-wingery of AFD? I know nothing about them except that they are totally beyond the pale, but I don't fully understand whether they are Farage right wing or some sort of white supremacist party - that just seems so implausible.

    They're hard to stereotype because they're almost an umbrella organsiation of all the non hard-left anti-regime factions in German politics, encompassing anti-Euro people, anti-green people, anti-immigration people, as well as people who think the problem is that Germany is too obsessed with guilt over the Nazis.
    Yes, they're just a benign German version of Musk /s


    Looks like a dog whistle about modern architecture. They're saying they prefer gable roofs.
    Is that the Goebbels children?

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,445

    Meanwhile, in "I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it" news,

    Musk joins German far right's opening rally remotely, instructs Germans to stop feeling guilty and reminds them how impressed Caesar had been with German tribes' ability to fight.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jwmueller-pu.bsky.social/post/3lgljbzm4lc26

    He's Palpatine at this point

    "Germany, if one is to understand the great mystery, one must study all its aspects, not just the dogmatic, narrow view of democracy. If you wish to become a complete and great country, you must embrace a larger view of the Force. Only through me can you achieve a power greater than any party. Learn to know the dark side of the Force, Germany..."
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,643
    edited January 25
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652
    edited January 25
    'Top universities including Oxford and Cambridge have been given the green light to move away from “traditional” exams in a bid to boost the grades of minority groups and poorer students...'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/25/oxford-cambridge-move-away-traditional-exams-boost-results/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,445
    Lord, this is depressing. The richest man in the world is a neo-Nazi and the most powerful man in the world is a gangster thug. Europe is stuck with a rictus grin whilst Trump, Putin and Xi are carving up the world between them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,239
    Beyond words. He has ZERO self-awareness.



    Acyn
    @Acyn
    ·
    2h
    Trump: [Foreign countries] empty their prisons into our country. . Can you imagine somebody doing that to our country?

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1883262750241263956
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652
    edited January 25
    viewcode said:

    Lord, this is depressing. The richest man in the world is a neo-Nazi and the most powerful man in the world is a gangster thug. Europe is stuck with a rictus grin whilst Trump, Putin and Xi are carving up the world between them.

    I don't think that will hold for too long given Trump is about to impose even bigger tariffs on China than the EU from next month and has made clear he will eliminate the electric vehicle mandate so will hit Musk's Tesla. Putin can't even capture Kyiv let alone 1/3 of the world
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,643
    Peter Hitchens believes cannabis may have been factor in the change in personality of the Southport killer.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14324637/PETER-HITCHENS-sneaking-suspicion-Southport-child-killer-Axel-Rudakubana-suddenly-turned-violence-age-13.html
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,643
    edited January 25
    viewcode said:

    Lord, this is depressing. The richest man in the world is a neo-Nazi and the most powerful man in the world is a gangster thug. Europe is stuck with a rictus grin whilst Trump, Putin and Xi are carving up the world between them.

    And all totally avoidable if mainstream liberals had stayed in charge instead of hyper-liberals (as defined by John Gray).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652
    edited January 25
    New Canadian poll has the Liberals UP on the 32.6% they got at the last Federal election in 2021 to 33.2%, the Conservative lead slashed to just 3.8% and NDP down to 14% and a hung parliament again looking very possible

    https://x.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1882795823878287835
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,643
    HYUFD said:

    New Canadian poll has the Liberals UP on the 32.6% they got at the last Federal election in 2021 to 33.2%, the Conservative lead slashed to just 3.8% and NDP down to 14% and a hung parliament again looking very possible

    https://x.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1882795823878287835

    I'm a little sceptical about these polls because they're all from the same company EKOS, which has produced an unusually large number of polls over the last few days, and every other polling company in Canada doesn't have anything like the numbers they have.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,239
    HYUFD said:

    'Top universities including Oxford and Cambridge have been given the green light to move away from “traditional” exams in a bid to boost the grades of minority groups and poorer students...'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/25/oxford-cambridge-move-away-traditional-exams-boost-results/

    This has been going on for some time according to this from Speccie a few weeks ago. Total eye-opener:


    Decline and fall: how university education became infantilised
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/decline-and-fall-how-university-education-became-infantilised/

    "Not only have many exams become open-book exercises to be carried out from students’ rooms, but there has been a marked increase in coursework."

    "Many students are now excused from writing essays and permitted to submit bullet points"
  • HYUFD said:

    'Top universities including Oxford and Cambridge have been given the green light to move away from “traditional” exams in a bid to boost the grades of minority groups and poorer students...'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/25/oxford-cambridge-move-away-traditional-exams-boost-results/

    This has been going on for some time according to this from Speccie a few weeks ago. Total eye-opener:


    Decline and fall: how university education became infantilised
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/decline-and-fall-how-university-education-became-infantilised/

    "Not only have many exams become open-book exercises to be carried out from students’ rooms, but there has been a marked increase in coursework."

    "Many students are now excused from writing essays and permitted to submit bullet points"
    With a son in his final year of an Economics and Management degree at Oxford I can confirm that his final degree grade is based entirely on closed book essays at the end of his final year. No coursework; no bullet points. I don't know about other degrees.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,493
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Canadian poll has the Liberals UP on the 32.6% they got at the last Federal election in 2021 to 33.2%, the Conservative lead slashed to just 3.8% and NDP down to 14% and a hung parliament again looking very possible

    https://x.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1882795823878287835

    I'm a little sceptical about these polls because they're all from the same company EKOS, which has produced an unusually large number of polls over the last few days, and every other polling company in Canada doesn't have anything like the numbers they have.
    If they are even close to true then it really was merely Trudeau dragging them down, and not the accumulated weight of time in office. That would be an ideal scenario for the Liberals, which makes me skeptical, but sometimes parties get lucky.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,493
    edited January 26
    Andy_JS said:

    Peter Hitchens believes cannabis may have been factor in the change in personality of the Southport killer.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14324637/PETER-HITCHENS-sneaking-suspicion-Southport-child-killer-Axel-Rudakubana-suddenly-turned-violence-age-13.html

    Seems to be making some leaps along the way.

    As he's a Letby supporter he would usually demand much more evidence before making a firm conclusion like that.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,445
    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Lord, this is depressing. The richest man in the world is a neo-Nazi and the most powerful man in the world is a gangster thug. Europe is stuck with a rictus grin whilst Trump, Putin and Xi are carving up the world between them.

    I don't think that will hold for too long given Trump is about to impose even bigger tariffs on China than the EU from next month and has made clear he will eliminate the electric vehicle mandate so will hit Musk's Tesla. Putin can't even capture Kyiv let alone 1/3 of the world
    Musk is in favour of ending the EV mandate, because although it will hit Tesla, it will hit his competitors more. Combined with tariffs against China's EVs, it will just make Musk richer
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,598
    viewcode said:

    Lord, this is depressing. The richest man in the world is a neo-Nazi and the most powerful man in the world is a gangster thug. Europe is stuck with a rictus grin whilst Trump, Putin and Xi are carving up the world between them.

    Narendra Modi is also praising the fascist collaborator Subhas Chandra Bose.

    https://x.com/narendramodi/status/1882261984239915094
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,598

    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Lord, this is depressing. The richest man in the world is a neo-Nazi and the most powerful man in the world is a gangster thug. Europe is stuck with a rictus grin whilst Trump, Putin and Xi are carving up the world between them.

    And all totally avoidable if mainstream liberals had stayed in charge instead of hyper-liberals (as defined by John Gray).
    Right-wingers blaming left-wingers for their own actions. Like immature teenagers blaming their parents for the fact they trashed their bedroom. Utterly pathetic.
    More like someone who neglects their health complaining that they don't like the taste of the medicine.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,488
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Lord, this is depressing. The richest man in the world is a neo-Nazi and the most powerful man in the world is a gangster thug. Europe is stuck with a rictus grin whilst Trump, Putin and Xi are carving up the world between them.

    I don't think that will hold for too long given Trump is about to impose even bigger tariffs on China than the EU from next month and has made clear he will eliminate the electric vehicle mandate so will hit Musk's Tesla. Putin can't even capture Kyiv let alone 1/3 of the world
    Musk is in favour of ending the EV mandate, because although it will hit Tesla, it will hit his competitors more. Combined with tariffs against China's EVs, it will just make Musk richer
    Yep: he wants to cut other EV makers off at the knees, after having benefited hugely from the subsidies. (And having actively lobbied for them. And, come to mention it, continuing to lobby in other countries for EV subsidies.)

    Personally, I have no issue removing the subsidies so long as it's a level playing field: all car makers simply need to repay all the subsidies they've benefited from over the last decade. Problem solved, level playing field.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,445
    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Lord, this is depressing. The richest man in the world is a neo-Nazi and the most powerful man in the world is a gangster thug. Europe is stuck with a rictus grin whilst Trump, Putin and Xi are carving up the world between them.

    And all totally avoidable if mainstream liberals had stayed in charge instead of hyper-liberals (as defined by John Gray).
    In the end, the right are responsible for their own actions. You still think this is a normal Anglosphere political situation. It isn't.

    We moved from the Age of Care (Butskellism, corporatism, approx 1945 to 1979) thru the Age of Indifference (neoliberalism, approx 1979 to approx 2015? 2019?) and now we are in the Age of Aggression (2020-?, competing elites, enfeebled electorates, technofeudalism and the irrelevance of the nation-state as Trump, Putin and Xi build autocratic literal empires where once there were democracies).

    Try this guy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nM7SzN7nN9I

    At the start of the 20th century there were only about seven democracies, and empires still roamed the world. By the end of the 20th century most countries were democracies and globalisation ruled. Now autocracies are replacing democracies and nation-states are replaced by transnational internet tribes. We are both British. Why do we care about Elon Musk, a South-African-American? Because he is powerful and can move the emotions of populations.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,445

    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Lord, this is depressing. The richest man in the world is a neo-Nazi and the most powerful man in the world is a gangster thug. Europe is stuck with a rictus grin whilst Trump, Putin and Xi are carving up the world between them.

    And all totally avoidable if mainstream liberals had stayed in charge instead of hyper-liberals (as defined by John Gray).
    Right-wingers blaming left-wingers for their own actions. Like immature teenagers blaming their parents for the fact they trashed their bedroom. Utterly pathetic.
    More like someone who neglects their health complaining that they don't like the taste of the medicine.
    If the future is what I think it is, I think the disease was better than the medicine...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,541
    edited January 26
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Lord, this is depressing. The richest man in the world is a neo-Nazi and the most powerful man in the world is a gangster thug. Europe is stuck with a rictus grin whilst Trump, Putin and Xi are carving up the world between them.

    I don't think that will hold for too long given Trump is about to impose even bigger tariffs on China than the EU from next month and has made clear he will eliminate the electric vehicle mandate so will hit Musk's Tesla. Putin can't even capture Kyiv let alone 1/3 of the world
    Musk is in favour of ending the EV mandate, because although it will hit Tesla, it will hit his competitors more. Combined with tariffs against China's EVs, it will just make Musk richer
    Yep: he wants to cut other EV makers off at the knees, after having benefited hugely from the subsidies. (And having actively lobbied for them. And, come to mention it, continuing to lobby in other countries for EV subsidies.)

    Personally, I have no issue removing the subsidies so long as it's a level playing field: all car makers simply need to repay all the subsidies they've benefited from over the last decade. Problem solved, level playing field.
    Depends what the intended purpose of the subsidy was - if it was a temporary measure to stimulate the adoption of a new technology and scale it up, I don't think the other car manufacturers can have any complaints if Tesla/Musk enjoy the rewards of taking on that initial risk. Why didn't they do the same?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,445
    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Lord, this is depressing. The richest man in the world is a neo-Nazi and the most powerful man in the world is a gangster thug. Europe is stuck with a rictus grin whilst Trump, Putin and Xi are carving up the world between them.

    And all totally avoidable if mainstream liberals had stayed in charge instead of hyper-liberals (as defined by John Gray).
    I'm going to have to read "The New Leviathans: Thoughts After Liberalism.", aren't I... :(
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,598

    viewcode said:

    Lord, this is depressing. The richest man in the world is a neo-Nazi and the most powerful man in the world is a gangster thug. Europe is stuck with a rictus grin whilst Trump, Putin and Xi are carving up the world between them.

    Narendra Modi is also praising the fascist collaborator Subhas Chandra Bose.

    https://x.com/narendramodi/status/1882261984239915094
    Interesting thread of responses to someone commenting on that. Tl;dr, we underestimate how anti-British modern India is.

    https://x.com/sam_bidwell/status/1883298331365159378
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,643
    Senior Labour figures starting to get annoyed with the environmental lobby.

    "Environment secretary lambasts HS2’s £100m bat shelter
    Steve Reed says plans for 1km curved structure to protect bats from high-speed railway are ‘batshit crazy’"

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jan/25/environment-secretary-lambasts-hs2s-100m-bat-shelter
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,445

    viewcode said:

    Lord, this is depressing. The richest man in the world is a neo-Nazi and the most powerful man in the world is a gangster thug. Europe is stuck with a rictus grin whilst Trump, Putin and Xi are carving up the world between them.

    Narendra Modi is also praising the fascist collaborator Subhas Chandra Bose.

    https://x.com/narendramodi/status/1882261984239915094
    Interesting thread of responses to someone commenting on that. Tl;dr, we underestimate how anti-British modern India is.

    https://x.com/sam_bidwell/status/1883298331365159378
    Indeed. IIRC India did not condemn Russia after Salisbury. We think that because there are so many Indian-descended people in the UK then that makes India an ally. It isn't.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,445
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Lord, this is depressing. The richest man in the world is a neo-Nazi and the most powerful man in the world is a gangster thug. Europe is stuck with a rictus grin whilst Trump, Putin and Xi are carving up the world between them.

    And all totally avoidable if mainstream liberals had stayed in charge instead of hyper-liberals (as defined by John Gray).
    In the end, the right are responsible for their own actions. You still think this is a normal Anglosphere political situation. It isn't.

    We moved from the Age of Care (Butskellism, corporatism, approx 1945 to 1979) thru the Age of Indifference (neoliberalism, approx 1979 to approx 2015? 2019?) and now we are in the Age of Aggression (2020-?, competing elites, enfeebled electorates, technofeudalism and the irrelevance of the nation-state as Trump, Putin and Xi build autocratic literal empires where once there were democracies).

    Try this guy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nM7SzN7nN9I

    At the start of the 20th century there were only about seven democracies, and empires still roamed the world. By the end of the 20th century most countries were democracies and globalisation ruled. Now autocracies are replacing democracies and nation-states are replaced by transnational internet tribes. We are both British. Why do we care about Elon Musk, a South-African-American? Because he is powerful and can move the emotions of populations.

    @Andy_JS , I thought I was contradicting you, but after a brief google of "John Gray Hyper-liberalism" I may have got it wrong, or at least wrong-ish. Although I do think Gray might be missing the destruction of the nation-state and the competing elites bit, but I'll have to buy a copy of "The New Leviathans" and read it to check.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,643
    edited January 26
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Lord, this is depressing. The richest man in the world is a neo-Nazi and the most powerful man in the world is a gangster thug. Europe is stuck with a rictus grin whilst Trump, Putin and Xi are carving up the world between them.

    And all totally avoidable if mainstream liberals had stayed in charge instead of hyper-liberals (as defined by John Gray).
    In the end, the right are responsible for their own actions. You still think this is a normal Anglosphere political situation. It isn't.

    We moved from the Age of Care (Butskellism, corporatism, approx 1945 to 1979) thru the Age of Indifference (neoliberalism, approx 1979 to approx 2015? 2019?) and now we are in the Age of Aggression (2020-?, competing elites, enfeebled electorates, technofeudalism and the irrelevance of the nation-state as Trump, Putin and Xi build autocratic literal empires where once there were democracies).

    Try this guy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nM7SzN7nN9I

    At the start of the 20th century there were only about seven democracies, and empires still roamed the world. By the end of the 20th century most countries were democracies and globalisation ruled. Now autocracies are replacing democracies and nation-states are replaced by transnational internet tribes. We are both British. Why do we care about Elon Musk, a South-African-American? Because he is powerful and can move the emotions of populations.

    @Andy_JS , I thought I was contradicting you, but after a brief google of "John Gray Hyper-liberalism" I may have got it wrong, or at least wrong-ish. Although I do think Gray might be missing the destruction of the nation-state and the competing elites bit, but I'll have to buy a copy of "The New Leviathans" and read it to check.
    The book is well worth reading. I'm a bit tired right now to chat about it all in detail, apologies.

    Gray talks about hyperliberalism at the start of this video using the slightly different name of "alt-liberalism".

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hC5nXXJrV8
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,445
    edited January 26
    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Lord, this is depressing. The richest man in the world is a neo-Nazi and the most powerful man in the world is a gangster thug. Europe is stuck with a rictus grin whilst Trump, Putin and Xi are carving up the world between them.

    And all totally avoidable if mainstream liberals had stayed in charge instead of hyper-liberals (as defined by John Gray).
    In the end, the right are responsible for their own actions. You still think this is a normal Anglosphere political situation. It isn't.

    We moved from the Age of Care (Butskellism, corporatism, approx 1945 to 1979) thru the Age of Indifference (neoliberalism, approx 1979 to approx 2015? 2019?) and now we are in the Age of Aggression (2020-?, competing elites, enfeebled electorates, technofeudalism and the irrelevance of the nation-state as Trump, Putin and Xi build autocratic literal empires where once there were democracies).

    Try this guy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nM7SzN7nN9I

    At the start of the 20th century there were only about seven democracies, and empires still roamed the world. By the end of the 20th century most countries were democracies and globalisation ruled. Now autocracies are replacing democracies and nation-states are replaced by transnational internet tribes. We are both British. Why do we care about Elon Musk, a South-African-American? Because he is powerful and can move the emotions of populations.

    @Andy_JS , I thought I was contradicting you, but after a brief google of "John Gray Hyper-liberalism" I may have got it wrong, or at least wrong-ish. Although I do think Gray might be missing the destruction of the nation-state and the competing elites bit, but I'll have to buy a copy of "The New Leviathans" and read it to check.
    The book is well worth reading. I'm a bit tired right now to chat about it all in detail, apologies.
    Not a problem. I'm googling for a lecture on it, but the best I can find quickly is an interview with Freddie Sayers for Unherd, which is too long and interview format (grrr). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCG1-30auFc
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,233
    edited January 26
    Francis said:

    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, in "I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it" news,

    Musk joins German far right's opening rally remotely, instructs Germans to stop feeling guilty and reminds them how impressed Caesar had been with German tribes' ability to fight.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jwmueller-pu.bsky.social/post/3lgljbzm4lc26

    Elon Musk apologists - please explain.

    Better still, please STFU and stop embarrassing yourselves.
    Im beginning to think Musk is a total fraud. How does he have time to run 7 companies tweet all day, follow Trump around like a puppy dog and attend far right rallies. Not to mention his dozen kids.
    He's a fraud, but he's also a cynic and afaics a nihilist.

    He's seeking to destabilise European politics, judging purely by his actions.

    Why - I can think of various reasons.

    I have no idea what impact his latest fluff-off against Susie Wiles will have.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,598
    https://x.com/ap/status/1883346684932927907

    BREAKING: Trump says he is pressing Jordan, Egypt to take in Palestinians from Gaza, floats plan to 'just clean out' territory.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,165
    Afternoon all from Aotearoa :)

    New Zealand can be an odd place at times - we had to take the mother-in-law to the hospital for a scan today and while hospitals are much the same the thing that struck me (and I think this is true of all NZ public buildings) is it’s Māori first and English second on all the official signs.

    In most supermarkets you’ll see English first and Māori second. Now, New Zealand is roughly two thirds White European origin followed by Māori and the other Pacific Islands.

    It’s worth pointing out the Māori were here first centuries before Abel Tasman let alone James Cook. The much debated Waitangi Treaty has if anything muddied the waters further but the whole issue remains deeply contentious.

    In Wales, Cornwall and Scotland we have bi-lingual signage - Lelant in west Cornwall is Lannanta, Hayle is Heyl but that’s as far as it goes. I did once go into a newspaper shop in Caernarfon to buy a Racing Post and heard people converse in Welsh and I believe some Māori refuse to use English.

    I’m left with the observation language is a huge part of cultural identity and we English don’t know how lucky we are to have the lingua franca at our disposal.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,165
    The politics of London is always of interest. There haven’t been many local by elections since the last GE and the next locals are in 2026. That will be the acid test for all five main parties as well as for the plethora of Independents.

    With a ceasefire now in place, will the salience of the Gaza question still be there in a year and a bit? Many who flocked to the Newham Independents banner, for example, were hugely angered by the Gaza issue but were also strong supporters of Corbyn and saw themselves as being hounded out of the Starmer Labour Party.

    I suspect Councils of all political control and none will take a pounding next time but it would be foolish at this stage to be too dogmatic - 2026 is an eternity away.

    As for Khan, he would be up for re-election in 2028. Will he stand again? If not, I think Stella Creasy would be a good choice for Labour. As for the Conservatives, IF they are back as the clear opposition, they would need to find a more astute candidate than Susan Hall which begs the question of how Reform will treat this election.

    More seriously than 2024 when Howard Cox finished fifth with 3% of the vote I suspect.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,373
    Trump says Keir Starmer doing 'very good job'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqjvyyn7k99o

    Trump fans, please explain. Starmer fans, please explain.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,373
    HYUFD said:

    'Top universities including Oxford and Cambridge have been given the green light to move away from “traditional” exams in a bid to boost the grades of minority groups and poorer students...'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/25/oxford-cambridge-move-away-traditional-exams-boost-results/

    From your link: According to the University of Cambridge’s plan, “assessment practices” may be to blame for “awarding gaps” and it hoped to “improve outcomes” for Black-British and British-Bangladeshi students.

    That seems oddly specific. I'd wonder if their race classification is not disguising a class difference.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,373
    Diamonds lose their sparkle as prices come crashing down
    Lab-grown rocks and fewer weddings have put a huge dampener on the market. On the bright side, a big dazzler is now affordable for many

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/25/diamonds-lose-their-sparkle-as-prices-come-crashing-down
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,643

    Trump says Keir Starmer doing 'very good job'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqjvyyn7k99o

    Trump fans, please explain. Starmer fans, please explain.

    Diplomacy still exists.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,233

    Trump says Keir Starmer doing 'very good job'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqjvyyn7k99o

    Trump fans, please explain. Starmer fans, please explain.

    Chump has more faces than the town clock, controlled by a deranged mechanism, striking entirely at random.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,373
    Cobra meeting held as UK faces weather warnings from new Storm Herminia
    Fears grow of potential flooding next week as extreme conditions show little sign of letting up

    https://inews.co.uk/news/fresh-weather-warnings-fallout-decades-strongest-storm-3501908 (£££)
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 391

    https://x.com/ap/status/1883346684932927907

    BREAKING: Trump says he is pressing Jordan, Egypt to take in Palestinians from Gaza, floats plan to 'just clean out' territory.

    If only they hadn't found all that gas offshore from Gaza then no-one would have been interested.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,233
    edited January 26
    Mr Trump has put out an Executive Order mandating "classical architectural styles" (which obvs he does not understand) across the Federal Buildings Estate for any significant project.

    https://youtu.be/GBe8BgjzLwk?t=726

    He did it last time too, in far more detail, at the end of his last term, seeking to ban modernist styles.

    https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-promoting-beautiful-federal-civic-architecture/

    Hyacinth Bouquet discovers the Mussolini playbook.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 391
    MattW said:

    Mr Trump has put out an Executive Order mandating "classical architectural styles" (which obvs he does not understand) across the Federal Buildings Estate for any significant project.

    https://youtu.be/GBe8BgjzLwk?t=726

    He did it last time too, in far more detail, at the end of his last term, seeking to ban modernist style.

    https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-promoting-beautiful-federal-civic-architecture/

    Hyacinth Bouquet discovers the Mussolini playbook.

    There's a comedy in there somewhere. Trump wakes up and goes into Melania's room to say "Guess what's just occurred to me ....it'll be the best, most beautiful ever." Then the camera pans out to a shack in Greenland.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,373
    MattW said:

    Mr Trump has put out an Executive Order mandating "classical architectural styles" (which obvs he does not understand) across the Federal Buildings Estate for any significant project.

    https://youtu.be/GBe8BgjzLwk?t=726

    He did it last time too, in far more detail, at the end of his last term, seeking to ban modernist styles.

    https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-promoting-beautiful-federal-civic-architecture/

    Hyacinth Bouquet discovers the Mussolini playbook.

    Trump has decades of experience in the building game, to be fair.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,233

    MattW said:

    Mr Trump has put out an Executive Order mandating "classical architectural styles" (which obvs he does not understand) across the Federal Buildings Estate for any significant project.

    https://youtu.be/GBe8BgjzLwk?t=726

    He did it last time too, in far more detail, at the end of his last term, seeking to ban modernist styles.

    https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-promoting-beautiful-federal-civic-architecture/

    Hyacinth Bouquet discovers the Mussolini playbook.

    Trump has decades of experience in the building game, to be fair.
    Er ... yes. Look at his beautiful building on the seafront in Hawaii.




This discussion has been closed.