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Let’s talk about clouds – politicalbetting.com

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  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,926
    Andy_JS said:

    This is an opportunity for the LDs. Only 10% behind the two main established parties.
    It’s an outlier poll. I may be wrong but I suspect this is the age old problem of over polling of politically engaged people. In the general election we saw the two fringe parties - Green and Reform - doing worse than polling suggested, in Reform’s case by quite a lot.

    In Corbyn’s time those politically engaged people were boosting Labour polling. Now they’re boosting Green and Reform.

    I can well believe Reform is now in the 20s, but 26%? Seems a push when you look at local by-elections. And the Greens at 10%? Nah.

    The Tories are the world’s great survivors. Come 2029 they (and Labour) will be comfortably back up in the mid 30s.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,638
    edited January 24

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1882836543695450507

    Trump: "I would love to see Canada be the 51st state. The Canadians citizens, if that happened ... they'd have much better health coverage."

    Utter nonsense from Trump!

    As Canada consists of 10 Provinces and 3 Territories, they would become the 51st through 63rd States!
  • The existing Russia is very bad news, in all sorts of ways.

    A totally collapsed Russia would be desirable and hopefully see the break-up and dismantling of Russia so that its regions no longer act as fodder for Moscow and can be developed individually instead.

    Sometimes things need to fall apart before they can be rebuilt better.
    Look at 1990"s Russia.

    That was only a preamble to total collapse, and even then highly dangerous for the short-sighted West at the time. It's a cliche, but we are doomed to repeat the mistakes of history, without the use of any knowledge.
  • HYUFD said:

    See also Lehmans in 2008
    Yes, there's a reason I threw in the banking and business reference.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,161

    For me reasonable doubt is more like 1-2% than 10-20%. I'm probably right at the low end on that, but suspect you would get one or two thinking similarly on most juries.
    There is already the suspicion that in some cases where children are victims, juries are prone to jump the other way and be too ready to convict.
  • Look at 1990"s Russia.

    That was only a preamble to total collapse, and even then highly dangerous for the short-sighted West at the time. It's a cliche, but we are doomed to repeat the mistakes of history, without the use of any knowledge.
    Its a shame it didn't totally collapse.

    Hopefully it does next time.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,199
    Nigelb said:

    We will be thinking of you.

    And news of @Richard_Tyndall , by the way ?
    In case you missed it, he posted right at the end of the last thread.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,926
    HYUFD said:

    Liberal is the opposite of left on economics, the opposite of right on cultural issues.

    That’s actually an excellent one-liner. Did you just make it up?
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,621
    Gadfly said:

    In case you missed it, he posted right at the end of the last thread.

    Although I don’t know him personally I’ve known him as a poster for all the time I’ve been here and it makes events like this all the more real when there’s someone you know, even peripherally, caught up in it. He seemed optimistic it would be okay. We all hope it will be.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,621
    This labour MP, of the new intake, seems to be a bright spark and should get ministerial office sooner rather than later.

    https://x.com/dan4barnet/status/1882774413977755680?s=61
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,638
    TimS said:

    I couldn’t disagree more. Russia in its current form (ie as Putin’s personal project) is the single greatest geopolitical menace to Europe by some distance. A mafia state run on the basis of expansion and self-defining as the nemesis of Western democracy.

    Back to those examples: Napoleon, Hirohito, Hitler. Or for that matter Genghis or any other historical conqueror. They cannot and will not be bargained with. Only total defeat rids the world of their danger.
    True, but I would point out that Hirohito was allowed by the Allies to remain Emperor of Japan.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,024
    edited January 24
    TimS said:

    I couldn’t disagree more. Russia in its current form (ie as Putin’s personal project) is the single greatest geopolitical menace to Europe by some distance. A mafia state run on the basis of expansion and self-defining as the nemesis of Western democracy.

    Back to those examples: Napoleon, Hirohito, Hitler. Or for that matter Genghis or any other historical conqueror. They cannot and will not be bargained with. Only total defeat rids the world of their danger.
    Russia has the biggest arsenal of nuclear missiles in the world, that would be highly risky. Russian total defeat is unlikely anyway, that would have required Zelensky to already have pushed them fully out of Ukraine, so is Ukranian total defeat as that would have meant Kyiv fell in 2022.

    Most likely it will be a ceasefire on current boundaries
  • TimS said:

    I couldn’t disagree more. Russia in its current form (ie as Putin’s personal project) is the single greatest geopolitical menace to Europe by some distance. A mafia state run on the basis of expansion and self-defining as the nemesis of Western democracy.

    Back to those examples: Napoleon, Hirohito, Hitler. Or for that matter Genghis or any other historical conqueror. They cannot and will not be bargained with. Only total defeat rids the world of their danger.
    But none of these possessed vast amounts of nuclear warheads, dispersed around a huge landmass.

    The situations aren't comparable.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,926
    edited January 24

    Its a shame it didn't totally collapse.

    Hopefully it does next time.
    1990s Russia was their Weimar Republic. Russia was afforded all kinds of special privileges (including inheriting the USSR’s seat on the UNSC) which meant they got just the right mix to avoid any kind of self-reflection and cultivate their own stab in the back myth.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,024

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1882836543695450507

    Trump: "I would love to see Canada be the 51st state. The Canadians citizens, if that happened ... they'd have much better health coverage."

    The Canadian Liberals can't believe their luck with Trump. Since taking office they have already gone from facing annihilation in the polls to already some showing a hung parliament. He is of course wrong anyway, Canada has universal healthcare coverage unlike USA
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1882836543695450507

    Trump: "I would love to see Canada be the 51st state. The Canadians citizens, if that happened ... they'd have much better health coverage."

    Did Putin ever consider buying Ukraine?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352
    .
    HYUFD said:

    The Canadian Liberals can't believe their luck with Trump. Since taking office they have already gone from facing annihilation in the polls to already some showing a hung parliament. He is of course wrong anyway, Canada has universal healthcare coverage unlike USA
    Probably more to do with them dumping Trudeau.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,275
    Foss said:
    I would not dream of questioning a reputable pollster but who are Find out now, and they seem to be the only weekly poster and the most Reform friendly? Because of their frequency if their methodology is even just slightly out they will skew all the averages.

    After Southport I can see Labour getting spanked but why the Tories, they have done nothing wrong? All the changes are within MoE.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,024
    RobD said:

    .

    Probably more to do with them dumping Trudeau.
    Both, that got a small bounce, the big Liberal bounce came after Trump's inaugration
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,638
    geoffw said:

    Did Putin ever consider buying Ukraine?

    USA bought Alaska from Russia in 1867!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,825
    edited January 24
    Merz says that if elected he will introduce controls on all Germany’s land borders and force back any illegal migrants.

    https://x.com/_friedrichmerz/status/1882847942576623760
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,024
    edited January 24

    This is election maps take on it

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1882829324279279696?t=cW8f6qX4dFPZKhme8GtmhA&s=19
    Reform making dramatic gains, from Barnsley to Basildon, Birmingham to Blackpool, Bolsover to Bradford and Burnley, Dagenham to Doncaster and Dudley, Grimsby to Harlow and Hartlepool, Hull to Llanelli and Merthyr Tydfil, Nuneaton to the Rhondda and Rotherham and South Thanet and Scunthorpe and Stoke, Thurrock to Tipton and Wednesbury and Torfaen, West Bromwich to Wolverhampton. All set to fall to Farage and Reform on that poll

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=23&LAB=22&LIB=12&Reform=26&Green=10&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,196
    geoffw said:

    Did Putin ever consider buying Ukraine?

    He tried. Many of the people he tried to bribe into cooperating, pre-invasion, went straight to the Ukrainian authorities. Which is a big pat of the reason the invasion failed.
  • CJohnCJohn Posts: 78

    We'll see but I think trying to make a by-election into a referendum on Farage would be a mistake for them. Not because of Farage's popularity, but because it's not what voters would care about.
    I didn't say Labour will make the by-election a "referendum on Farage"!!!

    I said they'd use it to try out attack lines against Reform.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,094
    Dopermean said:

    It's longterm debt more akin to a mortgage and banks are more than happy to lend on a 400% of income basis.
    I think it would be a safe bet that all the homeowners on PB bought their first home with a mortgage that was >100% of their annual income.
    doubt 100%, there will be some got them as gifts or had large part paid for them
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,691
    Tulsi Gabbard growing less likely to be confirmed.
    I'd forgotten this one.

    As we remember Japan’s aggression in the Pacific, we need to ask ourselves this question: is the remilitarization of Japan, which is presently underway, truly a good idea? We need to be careful that shortsighted, self-serving leaders do not end up bringing us again face-to-face with a remilitarized Japan. #PearlHarbor82..
    https://x.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1732690475482755422
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,094

    A totally collapsed Russia would be very bad news for the West, in all sorts of ways.

    You're usually a wiser and cooler head on PB, TimS.
    Rubbish it is a blot on the landscape. If they cannot get some humans running the place it is better beggared.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,196
    Nigelb said:

    Tulsi Gabbard growing less likely to be confirmed.
    I'd forgotten this one.

    As we remember Japan’s aggression in the Pacific, we need to ask ourselves this question: is the remilitarization of Japan, which is presently underway, truly a good idea? We need to be careful that shortsighted, self-serving leaders do not end up bringing us again face-to-face with a remilitarized Japan. #PearlHarbor82..
    https://x.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1732690475482755422

    There's also the issue of the somewhat passive/aggressive history of the Japanese Defence Forces with their ally/enemy - a 328 foot tall radioactive lizard. Who breathes radioactive fire. I mean, he's not Jewish and it's not a laser beam. But....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,161
    Southport killer was under NHS mental health care for years, hospital reveals
    Disclosure will raise questions on what service knew about Axel Rudakubana’s state of mind before he carried out the atrocity

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/24/southport-killer-nhs-mental-health-axel-rudakubana/ (£££)

    Is there a market on when Rudakubana is transferred to Ashworth or Rampton?

    And is this another failure of Care in the Community which saw most psychiatric hospitals sold off for luxury flats? Might Rudakubana have been sectioned when turned down by Prevent as not a terrorist?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,094
    Taz said:

    This labour MP, of the new intake, seems to be a bright spark and should get ministerial office sooner rather than later.

    https://x.com/dan4barnet/status/1882774413977755680?s=61

    My back garden fence blown down, been severe winds all day and still not great. Not going out to check how bad it is , can wait till tomorrow.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,196

    Southport killer was under NHS mental health care for years, hospital reveals
    Disclosure will raise questions on what service knew about Axel Rudakubana’s state of mind before he carried out the atrocity

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/24/southport-killer-nhs-mental-health-axel-rudakubana/ (£££)

    Is there a market on when Rudakubana is transferred to Ashworth or Rampton?

    And is this another failure of Care in the Community which saw most psychiatric hospitals sold off for luxury flats? Might Rudakubana have been sectioned when turned down by Prevent as not a terrorist?

    Unless someone is an obvious, immediate danger to themselves or the community, no doctor will sign off on locking people up and medicating them against their will.

    You can't bring back the old insane asylums, because you won't be able to get people inside them.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,370
    Nigelb said:

    Tulsi Gabbard growing less likely to be confirmed.
    I'd forgotten this one.

    As we remember Japan’s aggression in the Pacific, we need to ask ourselves this question: is the remilitarization of Japan, which is presently underway, truly a good idea? We need to be careful that shortsighted, self-serving leaders do not end up bringing us again face-to-face with a remilitarized Japan. #PearlHarbor82..
    https://x.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1732690475482755422

    You know, I can think of positive things to say about almost every human being: yes, even Trump, @kle4 and RFK Jr.

    Tulsi Gabbard, though, I'm really struggling. Can anyone think of a single positive characteristic?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,343

    Unless someone is an obvious, immediate danger to themselves or the community, no doctor will sign off on locking people up and medicating them against their will.

    You can't bring back the old insane asylums, because you won't be able to get people inside them.
    And even then it's not easy, because there is so little capacity in the MH system.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,196

    Unless someone is an obvious, immediate danger to themselves or the community, no doctor will sign off on locking people up and medicating them against their will.

    You can't bring back the old insane asylums, because you won't be able to get people inside them.
    Further, you might argue that bringing them back would be a good idea. But society has changed and won't tolerate the abuses that led to their ending and the changes to the ethical structure taught to doctors.

    Much as in the case of social care for children, reintroducing Borstal and locking the kids up like criminals won't come back. Despite {REDACTED REDACTED.....}
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,094

    Southport killer was under NHS mental health care for years, hospital reveals
    Disclosure will raise questions on what service knew about Axel Rudakubana’s state of mind before he carried out the atrocity

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/24/southport-killer-nhs-mental-health-axel-rudakubana/ (£££)

    Is there a market on when Rudakubana is transferred to Ashworth or Rampton?

    And is this another failure of Care in the Community which saw most psychiatric hospitals sold off for luxury flats? Might Rudakubana have been sectioned when turned down by Prevent as not a terrorist?

    NHS mental health care amounts to almost nothing.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,415
    malcolmg said:

    My back garden fence blown down, been severe winds all day and still not great. Not going out to check how bad it is , can wait till tomorrow.
    Hope the damage isn't too severe.

    My garden wall was blown down in October 1987. When I left home it was 40ft of brick wall; when I got home it was 40ft of rubble. Fortunately nothing damaged by the collapse.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,196

    And even then it's not easy, because there is so little capacity in the MH system.
    There is space for stabby, total loons. Because there are so few of those. The total number of loony murders, in loony bins, in the whole country - a couple of dozen?

    What there isn't space for, is the regular type head-full-of-substandard-wiring types.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,024
    'Children of US soldiers are exempt from VAT on private school fees in the UK while British troops must pay full price, The Telegraph can reveal'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/labour-exempts-america-soldiers-children-private-school-vat/#:~:text=Following queries from a number,services' for these purposes.”
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,503
    edited January 24

    Merz says that if elected he will introduce controls on all Germany’s land borders and force back any illegal migrants.

    https://x.com/_friedrichmerz/status/1882847942576623760

    The end of Schengen?

    Another impractical, utopian, moronic euro-dream bites the dust.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,415

    Unless someone is an obvious, immediate danger to themselves or the community, no doctor will sign off on locking people up and medicating them against their will.

    You can't bring back the old insane asylums, because you won't be able to get people inside them.
    I wonder how the self destruct bill will deal with people who hate being in prison so much they'd prefer to die. Has that topic been covered, does anyone know?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,343

    There is space for stabby, total loons. Because there are so few of those. The total number of loony murders, in loony bins, in the whole country - a couple of dozen?

    What there isn't space for, is the regular type head-full-of-substandard-wiring types.
    The trouble is that there isn't the assessment capacity to distinguish those likely to go on stabby rampages from those who just have an unhealthy interest in such things.

    Well you can, but not before it's too late.
  • Dopermean said:

    It's longterm debt more akin to a mortgage and banks are more than happy to lend on a 400% of income basis.
    I think it would be a safe bet that all the homeowners on PB bought their first home with a mortgage that was >100% of their annual income.
    It's not remotely long term debt akin to a mortgage.

    A mortgage you buy your home and then you own it. The mortgage doesn't keep going up annually, if you make your payments it's going down.

    Our debt is going up not due to asset purchases like a mortgage, or investment like a mortgage, it's gone up because living expenses have exceeded revenues.

    It's more akin to a mountain of credit card debt than a mortgage.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562
    Taz said:

    This labour MP, of the new intake, seems to be a bright spark and should get ministerial office sooner rather than later.

    https://x.com/dan4barnet/status/1882774413977755680?s=61

    he's talking more sense than most (so will probably go nowhere). Keir Starmer was also talking sense. Sam Coates (in the quoted tweet) shows his lack of understanding of the specifics.

    the A47 between Dereham and Norwich is a horrible road which has cost lives, (I know I use it regularly) and Dr Boswell was trying to stop a road project which was not only needed but popular in the county and supported by all of the local MPs and councillors. if these specific schemes didn't happen another one would have happened much later and at much higher cost. Dr Boswell was being crowdfunded and had a flimsy argument which should have been thrown out initially.

    A better system for review of infrastructure projects is needed so it doesn't get to court in the first place. or if it has to it's once and quick.
  • Hurrah, another country taking back control and getting rid of their unelected rulers.

    Belize replaces British monarch on bank notes with ‘national heroes’

    John Briceño, the prime minister, said Belize “quite likely” to be the next state to become a republic


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/royal-family/article/belize-replaces-british-monarch-on-bank-notes-with-national-heroes-s6fjf900b
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    Hurrah, another country taking back control and getting rid of their unelected rulers.

    Belize replaces British monarch on bank notes with ‘national heroes’

    John Briceño, the prime minister, said Belize “quite likely” to be the next state to become a republic


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/royal-family/article/belize-replaces-british-monarch-on-bank-notes-with-national-heroes-s6fjf900b

    Whenever politicians do this it's usually an attempt to shore up their own declining support.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,783
    AnneJGP said:

    I wonder how the self destruct bill will deal with people who hate being in prison so much they'd prefer to die. Has that topic been covered, does anyone know?
    Unless they're terminally ill and likely to die within six months they're not eligible. It's not about 'preference to die'.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,965

    Hurrah, another country taking back control and getting rid of their unelected rulers.

    Belize replaces British monarch on bank notes with ‘national heroes’

    John Briceño, the prime minister, said Belize “quite likely” to be the next state to become a republic


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/royal-family/article/belize-replaces-british-monarch-on-bank-notes-with-national-heroes-s6fjf900b

    Sad to see. There are quite enough republics in central America.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,024

    Hurrah, another country taking back control and getting rid of their unelected rulers.

    Belize replaces British monarch on bank notes with ‘national heroes’

    John Briceño, the prime minister, said Belize “quite likely” to be the next state to become a republic


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/royal-family/article/belize-replaces-british-monarch-on-bank-notes-with-national-heroes-s6fjf900b

    Hardly, they would just be getting more influence from Trump, China or in their case Lord Ashcroft.

    Though they will be staying in the Commonwealth either way
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited January 24

    I would not dream of questioning a reputable pollster but who are Find out now, and they seem to be the only weekly poster and the most Reform friendly? Because of their frequency if their methodology is even just slightly out they will skew all the averages.

    After Southport I can see Labour getting spanked but why the Tories, they have done nothing wrong? All the changes are within MoE.
    Their average for Reform is only a point or two above that of the other pollsters. Nothing remarkable.
  • rcs1000 said:

    That's a very slow killer of a regime, though.

    Russia's internal security apparatus is incredibly strong.

    Dissent is quickly found and sent to camps far from Moscow.

    So... the current situation is this: Putin cannot survive peace, unless he has a clear victory. But he cannot get a clear victory, because right now he has a negligible amount of territory and 600,000 dead and wounded.

    Ukraine could survive and accept some kind of peace. If they gave up the Crimea and the Eastern oblasts that have been lost, but join the EU and (coughs) NATO, then that would probably work for them.

    But while they might accept that, grudgingly, Putin couldn't.

    And I don't think the US government can force Ukraine to cede additional territory. And it can't make the EU not accept Ukraine.

    So we have a bloody stalemate.

    Neither Russia nor Ukraine has the military strength to push for full victory. Meanwhile, Russia's economy is in serious trouble, but there's no obvious way to displace Putin.

    Still, it's fundamentally an unstable equilibrium. At some point, a military unit will refuse to fight, and then it will all come cascading down for one side or the other.

    My guess would be that it's more likely (although far from certain) to be a Russian unit.

    Why?

    Well, Russia has to advance, and Ukraine does not. Ukrainians are defending their homeland, and people will fight to keep what they have more than to gain something new. And, finally, Russia has already started to need to pull in troops from North Korea. That doesn't suggest they are finding it easy to get soldiers to the frontline.

    Finally... watch the Caucuses. The more exposed the Russian military is to Ukraine, the less able it is to crack down on dissent there.
    I'm surprised we haven't heard more from the Chechens yet, it would seem now would be an ideal opportunity to strike for them.

    Not sure if Putin came down on them so hard there's no appetite there anymore or anything else but Putin is too stretched already.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562
    rcs1000 said:

    That's a very slow killer of a regime, though.

    Russia's internal security apparatus is incredibly strong.

    Dissent is quickly found and sent to camps far from Moscow.

    So... the current situation is this: Putin cannot survive peace, unless he has a clear victory. But he cannot get a clear victory, because right now he has a negligible amount of territory and 600,000 dead and wounded.

    Ukraine could survive and accept some kind of peace. If they gave up the Crimea and the Eastern oblasts that have been lost, but join the EU and (coughs) NATO, then that would probably work for them.

    But while they might accept that, grudgingly, Putin couldn't.

    And I don't think the US government can force Ukraine to cede additional territory. And it can't make the EU not accept Ukraine.

    So we have a bloody stalemate.

    Neither Russia nor Ukraine has the military strength to push for full victory. Meanwhile, Russia's economy is in serious trouble, but there's no obvious way to displace Putin.

    Still, it's fundamentally an unstable equilibrium. At some point, a military unit will refuse to fight, and then it will all come cascading down for one side or the other.

    My guess would be that it's more likely (although far from certain) to be a Russian unit.

    Why?

    Well, Russia has to advance, and Ukraine does not. Ukrainians are defending their homeland, and people will fight to keep what they have more than to gain something new. And, finally, Russia has already started to need to pull in troops from North Korea. That doesn't suggest they are finding it easy to get soldiers to the frontline.

    Finally... watch the Caucuses. The more exposed the Russian military is to Ukraine, the less able it is to crack down on dissent there.
    I suspect that the fall of Putin will be sudden and we won't see it coming. It'll start with someone from within the regime but where is stops will be anyone's guess. from like for like replacement to collapse of the Russian state with lots of new Siberian countries.

    I'd also suggest watching Belarus for the same reasons as the Caucuses.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,638
    spudgfsh said:

    I suspect that the fall of Putin will be sudden and we won't see it coming. It'll start with someone from within the regime but where is stops will be anyone's guess. from like for like replacement to collapse of the Russian state with lots of new Siberian countries.

    I'd also suggest watching Belarus for the same reasons as the Caucuses.
    Caucasus.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Whenever politicians do this it's usually an attempt to shore up their own declining support.
    Nah, the Royals are rather unpopular.

    The most recent royal visit to Belize was in 2022 when the Prince and Princess of Wales, then the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge, had to drop one of their engagements in the country in response to a protest.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562

    I'm surprised we haven't heard more from the Chechens yet, it would seem now would be an ideal opportunity to strike for them.

    Not sure if Putin came down on them so hard there's no appetite there anymore or anything else but Putin is too stretched already.
    wouldn't they need to dislodge Kadyrov first? That'd take some organising.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,498

    Hurrah, another country taking back control and getting rid of their unelected rulers.

    Belize replaces British monarch on bank notes with ‘national heroes’

    John Briceño, the prime minister, said Belize “quite likely” to be the next state to become a republic


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/royal-family/article/belize-replaces-british-monarch-on-bank-notes-with-national-heroes-s6fjf900b

    I hope they aren’t expecting British support, the next time Guatemala presses its territorial claim. Independence surely means standing on your own two feet.
  • spudgfsh said:

    wouldn't they need to dislodge Kadyrov first? That'd take some organising.
    Well they got his father.

    Or Kadyrov could choose now is the time to switch sides. The family has form.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    HYUFD said:

    The Canadian Liberals can't believe their luck with Trump. Since taking office they have already gone from facing annihilation in the polls to already some showing a hung parliament. He is of course wrong anyway, Canada has universal healthcare coverage unlike USA
    Not true really. It's based on one pollster which is out of line with all the others.
  • ManOfGwentManOfGwent Posts: 150

    Nah, the Royals are rather unpopular.

    The most recent royal visit to Belize was in 2022 when the Prince and Princess of Wales, then the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge, had to drop one of their engagements in the country in response to a protest.
    Plurality of support for monarchy in the latest survey there 48 to 43. Another sound country who see how silly and old fashioned republics are.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,498
    Andy_JS said:

    Not true really. It's based on one pollster which is out of line with all the others.
    People tend to assume that a poll that is out of line with the rest is the real deal, rather than an outlier.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,353

    I'm surprised we haven't heard more from the Chechens yet, it would seem now would be an ideal opportunity to strike for them.

    Not sure if Putin came down on them so hard there's no appetite there anymore or anything else but Putin is too stretched already.
    There are a fair few secessionist movements in Russia proper; all small, but some quite old.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Separatism_in_Russia#Secessionist_movements
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562

    Well they got his father.

    Or Kadyrov could choose now is the time to switch sides. The family has form.
    Having hollowed out the military with the war in Ukraine, if Putin has hollowed out the economy and/or public finances as much then Chechnya would be one of the first places for 'cutbacks'. that could cause trouble
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,965

    Nah, the Royals are rather unpopular.

    The most recent royal visit to Belize was in 2022 when the Prince and Princess of Wales, then the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge, had to drop one of their engagements in the country in response to a protest.
    There are protests against royals in the UK too, but by no stretch of the imagination are they unpopular here. This is the same kind of logic that took a few thousand people screaming Corbyn's name as evidence he'd be the next PM.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,588
    Essexit said:

    Sad to see. There are quite enough republics in central America.
    The only national hero that springs to mind is Lord Ashcroft. Are there any others?
  • Essexit said:

    There are protests against royals in the UK too, but by no stretch of the imagination are they unpopular here. This is the same kind of logic that took a few thousand people screaming Corbyn's name as evidence he'd be the next PM.
    Support for a republic increased by 25% recently.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/09/01/support-for-an-elected-head-of-state-up-by-a-quarter-since-charles-became-king/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,638
    HYUFD said:

    Hardly, they would just be getting more influence from Trump, China or in their case Lord Ashcroft.

    Though they will be staying in the Commonwealth either way
    It's OK, let them go. Most people in Belize see Spanish as their first language (57%), as opposed to the King's (just 6%), or even the local English Creole (37%).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,024

    It's OK, let them go. Most people in Belize see Spanish as their first language (57%), as opposed to the King's (just 6%), or even the local English Creole (37%).
    Belize has been independent since 1981, they still chose to keep the monarch as their head of state
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,024

    Support for a republic increased by 25% recently.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/09/01/support-for-an-elected-head-of-state-up-by-a-quarter-since-charles-became-king/
    25% is even less than voted for Corbyn in 2019. If republicans can't even get almost all the 32% who voted for Corbyn in 2019, who was after all a republican himself, and with a King who is less popular than his mother was and son is too who can they get?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562

    Support for a republic increased by 25% recently.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/09/01/support-for-an-elected-head-of-state-up-by-a-quarter-since-charles-became-king/
    The thing is, if you replace the monarchy with a presidency I'd not want one like the US with a political president. I'd want one doing a similar job in an apolitical position. at that point it's simpler to keep the status quo
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,825
    Denmark in crisis mode after realising Trump is serious about Greenland

    https://www.ft.com/content/ace02a6f-3307-43f8-aac3-16b6646b60f6
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,024
    edited January 24
    Andy_JS said:

    Not true really. It's based on one pollster which is out of line with all the others.
    Mainstreet too had the Liberals up to 26% after Trudeau resigned, the EKOS poll is the only poll published since Trump's inaugration and has the Conservative lead cut even further
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,275
    HYUFD said:

    'Children of US soldiers are exempt from VAT on private school fees in the UK while British troops must pay full price, The Telegraph can reveal'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/labour-exempts-america-soldiers-children-private-school-vat/#:~:text=Following queries from a number,services' for these purposes.”

    What am opportunity to equalise the balance of payments deficit.

    @Casino_Royale you are welcome to flag for that quip.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,588

    Denmark in crisis mode after realising Trump is serious about Greenland

    https://www.ft.com/content/ace02a6f-3307-43f8-aac3-16b6646b60f6

    The US can always pay them to go away.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,275
    ...

    Denmark in crisis mode after realising Trump is serious about Greenland

    https://www.ft.com/content/ace02a6f-3307-43f8-aac3-16b6646b60f6

    That is your interpretation and not representative of the behind the paywall article.

    I think you might be a little too high on Trump's supply.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352

    ...

    That is your interpretation and not representative of the behind the paywall article.

    I think you might be a little too high on Trump's supply.
    It’s an accurate description.

    The Danes are now in crisis mode,” said one person briefed on the call. Another said: “The Danes are utterly freaked out by this.” A former Danish official added: “It was a very tough conversation. He threatened specific measures against Denmark such as targeted tariffs.”
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,275
    RobD said:

    It’s an accurate description.

    The Danes are now in crisis mode,” said one person briefed on the call. Another said: “The Danes are utterly freaked out by this.” A former Danish official added: “It was a very tough conversation. He threatened specific measures against Denmark such as targeted tariffs.”
    Aren't Denmark in the EU?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,295

    Hurrah, another country taking back control and getting rid of their unelected rulers.

    Belize replaces British monarch on bank notes with ‘national heroes’

    John Briceño, the prime minister, said Belize “quite likely” to be the next state to become a republic


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/royal-family/article/belize-replaces-british-monarch-on-bank-notes-with-national-heroes-s6fjf900b

    Traitor
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352

    Aren't Denmark in the EU?
    The US doesn’t care, just look at the restrictions on chip exports.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,295
    Sean_F said:

    I hope they aren’t expecting British support, the next time Guatemala presses its territorial claim. Independence surely means standing on your own two feet.
    We hate ourselves and only want to prostrate ourselves on the world stage.

    Why should that be attractive?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,937
    RobD said:

    It’s an accurate description.

    The Danes are now in crisis mode,” said one person briefed on the call. Another said: “The Danes are utterly freaked out by this.” A former Danish official added: “It was a very tough conversation. He threatened specific measures against Denmark such as targeted tariffs.”
    And here is why the Grits are coming roaring back.
    Dollar for dollar is the only language he understands.
    They put one in hospital we put one in the morgue. Don't know why we're wasting time.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,638
    HYUFD said:

    Belize has been independent since 1981, they still chose to keep the monarch as their head of state
    I haven't included them in my (hypothetical) Anglospheric Federation.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,196
    AnneJGP said:

    I wonder how the self destruct bill will deal with people who hate being in prison so much they'd prefer to die. Has that topic been covered, does anyone know?
    The law in Canada has been stretched to cover the incurably miserable.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64004329

    “In one instance, veteran and paralympian Christine Gauthier said she was offered the option by the employee after she asked for a wheelchair ramp to be installed in her home.”

    So…..
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,665

    I haven't included them in my (hypothetical) Anglospheric Federation.
    8 see you've survived your trip to Ashington!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,275
    RobD said:

    The US doesn’t care, just look at the restrictions on chip exports.
    To sell their cured meat products and Lego Denmark still have access to an enormous tariff free frictionless single market on their doorstep, unlike Britain since Starmer foolishly took us out of the EU.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352
    edited January 24

    To sell their cured meat products and Lego Denmark still have access to an enormous tariff free frictionless single market on their doorstep, unlike Britain since Starmer foolishly took us out of the EU.
    Then it’ll be like water off a duck’s back. Yet that isn’t consistent with the reports in the FT, is it?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,343
    RobD said:

    It’s an accurate description.

    The Danes are now in crisis mode,” said one person briefed on the call. Another said: “The Danes are utterly freaked out by this.” A former Danish official added: “It was a very tough conversation. He threatened specific measures against Denmark such as targeted tariffs.”
    When can we start photoshopping JD the VP into the "are we the baddies?" meme?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,638

    8 see you've survived your trip to Ashington!
    Yes, and that morning I even did the York avoider (Holgate Jn to Skelton Jn) courtesy of the 1045 Lumo train ex-Kings Cross!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352

    When can we start photoshopping JD the VP into the "are we the baddies?" meme?
    They are going to make an offer the Danes can’t refuse.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,196
    spudgfsh said:

    he's talking more sense than most (so will probably go nowhere). Keir Starmer was also talking sense. Sam Coates (in the quoted tweet) shows his lack of understanding of the specifics.

    the A47 between Dereham and Norwich is a horrible road which has cost lives, (I know I use it regularly) and Dr Boswell was trying to stop a road project which was not only needed but popular in the county and supported by all of the local MPs and councillors. if these specific schemes didn't happen another one would have happened much later and at much higher cost. Dr Boswell was being crowdfunded and had a flimsy argument which should have been thrown out initially.

    A better system for review of infrastructure projects is needed so it doesn't get to court in the first place. or if it has to it's once and quick.
    Further - it was pretty much certain from the starts that the objections were invalid. Lawfare, plain and simple.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,638

    The US can always pay them to go away.
    In 1917, our Septic friends purchased the western half of the Virgin Islands from Denmark for $25 million (say $600 million in today's money). These are the group now known as the US Virgin Islands.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,275
    RobD said:

    Then it’ll be like water off a duck’s back. Yet that isn’t consistent with the reports in the FT, is it?
    No, you have me banged to rights. The Brexit interjection was entirely my confection.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,926
    RobD said:

    They are going to make an offer the Danes can’t refuse.
    Between Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal it's getting to be a bit insulting Trump hasn't made any overtures to subsume us yet.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,343

    Between Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal it's getting to be a bit insulting Trump hasn't made any overtures to subsume us yet.
    I blame Starmer.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,394

    Between Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal it's getting to be a bit insulting Trump hasn't made any overtures to subsume us yet.
    The big risk is that we might say yes.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,370
    You know, it's one thing offering a fair price and having a negotiation with Denmark over Greenland (assuming the Greenlanders agree).

    It's another thing entirely when you threaten retaliatory tariffs if fellow NATO member Denmark does not accede to your request.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    edited January 24
    Whenever we get onto the monarchy on here I always politely mention that it is largely retained through inertia and the fact that there is absolutely zero strong support or consensus about the alternative. We will keep our monarchy until such point as the monarch becomes actively damaging to the state (and no, that isn't the case now).

    Other nations around the world have their own choice to make on ties to the British throne, but I can at least understand the stronger feeling in some nations around whether in 2025 it makes sense for someone who lives on the other side of the world and visits once every few years at most to be the nominal head of your country.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352
    Foss said:

    The big risk is that we might say yes.
    We, read Charles, should propose the creation of the Dominion of North America, with Trump as its first viceroy.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,641

    Between Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal it's getting to be a bit insulting Trump hasn't made any overtures to subsume us yet.
    He'll just slowly take over, one golf course at a time.
This discussion has been closed.