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Let’s talk about clouds – politicalbetting.com

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,675
    edited January 25

    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cicero said:

    The main bbc news is delayed 30mins because of some bollocks called 'traitors'?



    Well, according to BBC News, it is the fourth most important news story in the whole world right now.

    They are losing their way so badly nowadays.
    LOL. Actually maybe things are improving. Last year it would be second most important story!!
    For the BBC it is a very important story- and they are looking to make overseas sales. Such self serving log rolling tends ultimately to devalue the BBC brand- but that's just collateral damage, if the moolah keeps coming in
    It's not just the BBC though, is it ?
    Plenty of other media report it with some prominence.

    The OP is quite wrong. Stuff gets prominence because news organisation think stuff will attract eyeballs, not because it's "important".

    The relationship between important and interesting is an evolving one.
    Media group Reach whose titles include plenty of local rags full of this shit had results this week that showed them to be profitable and moving in the right direction.

    Clickbait stuff, like the traitors, helps drive that.

    It’s a Dutch format so I am not sure if the BBC can monetise much with it.
    I've enjoyed watching the gameshow based off the werewolf party game - but it is not in any way shape or form "The news"
    Sounds essentially like a TV version of Lycans or Among Us.

    And perplexing as to why it's 'news'.
    Yes they're essentially all variants of Mafia/Werewolf.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mafia_(party_game)#Association_roles
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,732
    FF43 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The Trump stuff on Denmark is insane.

    It's the sort of thing that would probably compel us to back Denmark, together with other European allies, and split NATO.

    I presume he couldn't take any military action without the approval of Congress. Whilst Republican controlled one would hope not all Senators would vote for such insanity.

    It wouldn't need military action. The population of Greenland is tiny and they have no armed forces of their own to speak of. DJT could just send CIA SADs/PMCs into Nuuk to round up the government and take over the airport. They've already got forces in Greenland if necessay. The janitorial team from Thule AFB could probably do it.

    Then it's over. Europe aren't going to fight the USA over it. We'd all feel a bit shit about it for a bit then get over it.
    No, we wouldn't get over it.

    It would have very serious repercussions.
    You're both right I think. Trump is picking off Greenland because he believes it's an easy win for him. Much the same calculation as Putin's invasions of Ukraine. But the repercussions will be serious. The World depends on states behaving properly, particularly the USA.
    Yes the world depends on states behaving properly which is why European states ignoring their obligations is a major problem. Trump 1.0 was berated by Merkel and co for demanding Europe stops taking Russian energy and strengthens its own defences. Events proved him correct.

    Maybe if Europe put its own house in order we wouldnt have these little spats.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,322
    Nigelb said:

    the Administration is briefing trump will force a deal, but Europe will have to pay for both policing the border, and the reconstruction of Ukraine.

    At which point, we should be determining the conditions of the deal, not him.

    Europe already provides way more financial support to Ukraine than the US does

    Merz says that if elected he will introduce controls on all Germany’s land borders and force back any illegal migrants.

    https://x.com/_friedrichmerz/status/1882847942576623760

    Merz is an idiot
    Nigelb said:

    I see Vance had to break the Senate tie to confirm the alcohol dependent incompetent, credibly accused of sexual assault, to be SecDef.

    The alcoholism and sexual assault is one thing.

    His plans to purge the military command of liberals and his disdain for democracy are more worrying. Next time Trump needs to stage a coup he aims to have the military on his side.

    50 out of 53 Republican senators voted for this. Really bad news.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,147
    edited January 25

    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cicero said:

    The main bbc news is delayed 30mins because of some bollocks called 'traitors'?



    Well, according to BBC News, it is the fourth most important news story in the whole world right now.

    They are losing their way so badly nowadays.
    LOL. Actually maybe things are improving. Last year it would be second most important story!!
    For the BBC it is a very important story- and they are looking to make overseas sales. Such self serving log rolling tends ultimately to devalue the BBC brand- but that's just collateral damage, if the moolah keeps coming in
    It's not just the BBC though, is it ?
    Plenty of other media report it with some prominence.

    The OP is quite wrong. Stuff gets prominence because news organisation think stuff will attract eyeballs, not because it's "important".

    The relationship between important and interesting is an evolving one.
    Media group Reach whose titles include plenty of local rags full of this shit had results this week that showed them to be profitable and moving in the right direction.

    Clickbait stuff, like the traitors, helps drive that.

    It’s a Dutch format so I am not sure if the BBC can monetise much with it.
    I've enjoyed watching the gameshow based off the werewolf party game - but it is not in any way shape or form "The news"
    Sounds essentially like a TV version of Lycans or Among Us.

    And perplexing as to why it's 'news'.
    Popular culture has been 'news' since forever.
    Just like those who complain about the fact.

    And good morning to you, MD.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,892
    Foxy said:



    If Trump does attack Greenland it would surely be the end of NATO. Putin couldn't ask more of Trump if he tried.

    I'm pretty sure he'd get away with it. China and Russia would acquiesce in return for a free hand over their obstreperous provinces. And, really, what could and would the EU do about it? Sweet fuck all.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,147
    Elon Musk Favorable Polling (Pre-Salute Polling):

    Unfavorable: 52% (+1)
    Favorable: 36% (-5)

    AP-NORC / Jan 13, 2025 / n=1147

    (% change with December 2024)

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1882878031783735772
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,732
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:


    Labour donor gets favour from Ed Miliband, Farmers get proof Labour happy to hand countryside over to big corporates.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/01/24/miliband-approves-solar-farm-built-major-labour-donor/

    I'd hold your horses on that on slightly.

    I'm not aware that the Energy and Climate Change Minister makes Planning decisions on called-in schemes (are solar farms exceptions?), and the Telegraph have run their story without a Government comment.

    Full story:
    https://archive.is/20250124195103/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/01/24/miliband-approves-solar-farm-built-major-labour-donor/
    Story is big donor gets his payoff. Though why we should be building on some of our best agricultural land is a mystery. Surely there must be low grade land on which we can put solar farms ?
    If a business gets better return on capital with solar panels than sheep, why should regulators get in the way? I thought you favoured growth.
    Lincolnshire is mostly arable not livestock. And I dont think RoC should be based on slipping politicians a favour, nor as I understand it do you given your objections to Mr Musk.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,335
    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Trump stuff on Denmark is insane.

    It's the sort of thing that would probably compel us to back Denmark, together with other European allies, and split NATO.

    I presume he couldn't take any military action without the approval of Congress. Whilst Republican controlled one would hope not all Senators would vote for such insanity.

    Can UK forces operate independently or is our technology dependent on US approval?
    They can. But that's probably time limited because of our reliance on ongoing US. technical support for quite a list if it ?
    The UK can do a lot autonomously, but one thing it definitely isn't going to do is fight (and lose badly to) the USA over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the North Atlantic.
    We've autonomously fought and won wars over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the South Atlantic before.
    Penguin shit surely? Puffins are Northern hemisphere.

    I don't think we could do the same armada now, and certainly not against the USA.

    If Trump does attack Greenland it would surely be the end of NATO. Putin couldn't ask more of Trump if he tried.
    We wouldn't be doing it alone.

    It would split NATO and very serious consequences for the USA too, which would need to be mitigated by a future administration.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,179

    Cicero said:

    MattW said:

    Cicero said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    You know, it's one thing offering a fair price and having a negotiation with Denmark over Greenland (assuming the Greenlanders agree).

    It's another thing entirely when you threaten retaliatory tariffs if fellow NATO member Denmark does not accede to your request.

    Chump, or his successor, is going to end up with a Europe armed to the teeth shunning him as a threatening rival still grounded in the 18C.

    I'd say that Greenland needs to be looking at a closer alliance with Canada.

    Mr Trump really has his eye on the North-West passage, and ultimately the USA will say "our Navy is coming through - what're you gonna do?", ignoring international law to which they pay no regard anyway if it cuts across self-interest. And short of naval mines installed by Canada, they will not stop.

    That's the USA for you.
    With Tech valuations in mid air, and red ink all over Musk's hubris Empire- I'd say the US is riding for one hell of a fall. I am meeting my financial team on Tuesday and will be looking to drastically reduce exposure to the US.

    Pride goeth before destruction and a haughty spirit before a fall.
    Like everyone else, I really can't call any of it !

    It's a random walk.
    As far as Musk is concerned- it really isn't. He has managed his businesses badly, Tesla is under significant pressure and TwiX is probably worth less than half what he paid for it. Hoing to Mars is pretty much the definition of hubris. Individual business- starlink, possibly, have value, but the overall assets of the "first trillionaire" look like a house if cards. Meta to is is also extremely vulnerable. The enshitiffication of Facebook is more and more obvious- Reddit feeds are just cheap, repetitive filler.

    At current valuations a tech rout is not only quite likely- it's all but inevitable.
    Are you richer than Elon Musk ? From memory youre in private equity ?
    At this point nobody is richer than Musk.
    So, what's your point?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,674

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:


    Labour donor gets favour from Ed Miliband, Farmers get proof Labour happy to hand countryside over to big corporates.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/01/24/miliband-approves-solar-farm-built-major-labour-donor/

    I'd hold your horses on that on slightly.

    I'm not aware that the Energy and Climate Change Minister makes Planning decisions on called-in schemes (are solar farms exceptions?), and the Telegraph have run their story without a Government comment.

    Full story:
    https://archive.is/20250124195103/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/01/24/miliband-approves-solar-farm-built-major-labour-donor/
    Story is big donor gets his payoff. Though why we should be building on some of our best agricultural land is a mystery. Surely there must be low grade land on which we can put solar farms ?
    If a business gets better return on capital with solar panels than sheep, why should regulators get in the way? I thought you favoured growth.
    Lincolnshire is mostly arable not livestock. And I dont think RoC should be based on slipping politicians a favour, nor as I understand it do you given your objections to Mr Musk.
    So what? If a landowners gets better return with solar panels than barley, why shouldn't he? I thought you favoured deregulation for growth?

    Or is it only true when not in your backyard?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,686
    HYUFD said:

    'Vice President JD Vance proclaimed he wants “more babies in the United States of America” on Friday in his debut speech, echoing President Trump’s promise to fight back against unrestrained abortion access.

    “Our society has failed to recognize the obligation that one generation has to another is a core part of living in a society to begin with. So let me say, very simply, I want more babies in the United States of America,” Vance declared.

    Vance added that the US had “failed a generation” by celebrating abortion access and not aiding young couples with the tools they need to support a family — saying the country had embraced a “culture of abortion on demand.”

    “We need a culture that celebrates life at all stages, one that recognizes and truly believes that the benchmark of national success is not a GDP number or our stock market, but whether people feel that they can raise thriving and healthy families, in our country,” Vance said.'

    https://nypost.com/2025/01/24/us-news/march-for-life-jd-vance-says-he-wants-more-babies-in-the-us/


    It’s the last paragraph of your post that is way more important than the headline - and at the heart of why the resurgant right is doing so well
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,098
    Nobody was richer than Crassus either.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,732
    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    MattW said:

    Cicero said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    You know, it's one thing offering a fair price and having a negotiation with Denmark over Greenland (assuming the Greenlanders agree).

    It's another thing entirely when you threaten retaliatory tariffs if fellow NATO member Denmark does not accede to your request.

    Chump, or his successor, is going to end up with a Europe armed to the teeth shunning him as a threatening rival still grounded in the 18C.

    I'd say that Greenland needs to be looking at a closer alliance with Canada.

    Mr Trump really has his eye on the North-West passage, and ultimately the USA will say "our Navy is coming through - what're you gonna do?", ignoring international law to which they pay no regard anyway if it cuts across self-interest. And short of naval mines installed by Canada, they will not stop.

    That's the USA for you.
    With Tech valuations in mid air, and red ink all over Musk's hubris Empire- I'd say the US is riding for one hell of a fall. I am meeting my financial team on Tuesday and will be looking to drastically reduce exposure to the US.

    Pride goeth before destruction and a haughty spirit before a fall.
    Like everyone else, I really can't call any of it !

    It's a random walk.
    As far as Musk is concerned- it really isn't. He has managed his businesses badly, Tesla is under significant pressure and TwiX is probably worth less than half what he paid for it. Hoing to Mars is pretty much the definition of hubris. Individual business- starlink, possibly, have value, but the overall assets of the "first trillionaire" look like a house if cards. Meta to is is also extremely vulnerable. The enshitiffication of Facebook is more and more obvious- Reddit feeds are just cheap, repetitive filler.

    At current valuations a tech rout is not only quite likely- it's all but inevitable.
    Are you richer than Elon Musk ? From memory youre in private equity ?
    At this point nobody is richer than Musk.
    So, what's your point?
    My point is nobody is richer than Elon Musk so who are you to give him advice ? When youve got to the point where you have overtaken him then you'll have a point of your own.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,471
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:


    Labour donor gets favour from Ed Miliband, Farmers get proof Labour happy to hand countryside over to big corporates.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/01/24/miliband-approves-solar-farm-built-major-labour-donor/

    I'd hold your horses on that on slightly.

    I'm not aware that the Energy and Climate Change Minister makes Planning decisions on called-in schemes (are solar farms exceptions?), and the Telegraph have run their story without a Government comment.

    Full story:
    https://archive.is/20250124195103/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/01/24/miliband-approves-solar-farm-built-major-labour-donor/
    Story is big donor gets his payoff. Though why we should be building on some of our best agricultural land is a mystery. Surely there must be low grade land on which we can put solar farms ?
    If a business gets better return on capital with solar panels than sheep, why should regulators get in the way? I thought you favoured growth.
    I think regulators should incentivise both / and, which is rational in a country which is small relative to population.

    I'd particularly apply that to fields - I want wooded field boundaries like Ukraine, to control the wind, provide wildlife habitat, give us somewhere to fight from when Chump invades in his Winnebago with a 9 Iron stuck in his nappy, and as a place where we can develop walking / cycling trails parallel to all our roads to keep us separate from the loboto-hoons in their Range Rovers.

    You know it makes sense.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 162

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Trump stuff on Denmark is insane.

    It's the sort of thing that would probably compel us to back Denmark, together with other European allies, and split NATO.

    I presume he couldn't take any military action without the approval of Congress. Whilst Republican controlled one would hope not all Senators would vote for such insanity.

    Can UK forces operate independently or is our technology dependent on US approval?
    They can. But that's probably time limited because of our reliance on ongoing US. technical support for quite a list if it ?
    The UK can do a lot autonomously, but one thing it definitely isn't going to do is fight (and lose badly to) the USA over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the North Atlantic.
    We've autonomously fought and won wars over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the South Atlantic before.
    Correction - penguin shit. There are no puffins in the southern hemisphere. And the only penguins in the northern hemisphere are on the Galapogos Islands, and even then, only by a few miles.
    Glad you clarified that. Was quite confused for a moment.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,335
    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    the Administration is briefing trump will force a deal, but Europe will have to pay for both policing the border, and the reconstruction of Ukraine.

    At which point, we should be determining the conditions of the deal, not him.

    Europe already provides way more financial support to Ukraine than the US does

    Merz says that if elected he will introduce controls on all Germany’s land borders and force back any illegal migrants.

    https://x.com/_friedrichmerz/status/1882847942576623760

    Merz is an idiot
    Nigelb said:

    I see Vance had to break the Senate tie to confirm the alcohol dependent incompetent, credibly accused of sexual assault, to be SecDef.

    The alcoholism and sexual assault is one thing.

    His plans to purge the military command of liberals and his disdain for democracy are more worrying. Next time Trump needs to stage a coup he aims to have the military on his side.

    50 out of 53 Republican senators voted for this. Really bad news.
    If the Dems play it right they should gain a couple of Senators in November next year. Maybe the Republicans will just lose the House too.

    Not quite enough though.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,686
    Andy_JS said:

    "Controversial tourist tax approved in Edinburgh despite warnings

    A five per cent charge will be levied on hotels, B&Bs, campsites and accommodation let through websites such as Airbnb"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/01/24/edinburgh-tourist-tax-hotels-bed-breakfast-airbnb-overnight/

    That will be an interesting test case

    It’s always struck me as a very logical tax (possibly to fund local cultural activities - a “tourist tax”) but the hospitality industry has always fought hard against it (unsurprisingly). It will be nice to have some facts.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,732
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:


    Labour donor gets favour from Ed Miliband, Farmers get proof Labour happy to hand countryside over to big corporates.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/01/24/miliband-approves-solar-farm-built-major-labour-donor/

    I'd hold your horses on that on slightly.

    I'm not aware that the Energy and Climate Change Minister makes Planning decisions on called-in schemes (are solar farms exceptions?), and the Telegraph have run their story without a Government comment.

    Full story:
    https://archive.is/20250124195103/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/01/24/miliband-approves-solar-farm-built-major-labour-donor/
    Story is big donor gets his payoff. Though why we should be building on some of our best agricultural land is a mystery. Surely there must be low grade land on which we can put solar farms ?
    If a business gets better return on capital with solar panels than sheep, why should regulators get in the way? I thought you favoured growth.
    Lincolnshire is mostly arable not livestock. And I dont think RoC should be based on slipping politicians a favour, nor as I understand it do you given your objections to Mr Musk.
    So what? If a landowners gets better return with solar panels than barley, why shouldn't he? I thought you favoured deregulation for growth?

    Or is it only true when not in your backyard?
    I do favour deregulation, I also favour food on the table and food security. I cant eat solar panels. And if we were deregulatiing we wouldnt be putting up solar farms we'd be burning gas so the problem wouldnt arise.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,964
    A little piece I wrote on Substack about agency: https://open.substack.com/pub/robertsmithson1/p/agency-and-the-new-administration

    I should probably post it here too...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,301

    Driver said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @techmeme.com‬

    In email to X staff, Musk says "user growth is stagnant, revenue is unimpressive, and we're barely breaking even"; sources: banks plan to sell their debt in X (Wall Street Journal)

    https://bsky.app/profile/techmeme.com/post/3lgjbldyxgo2h

    That can't be correct as Elon fans in their black shorts keep saying that Twitter is doing really well.
    Has Musk only just noticed all his X numbers are going to shit?

    Tesla also in shit.

    Maybe he should get back to his day job(s) and stop trying to overthrow european governments?
    Yes. Musk has to decide whether he wants X as a personal bully pulpit, or as a successful growing social medium

    Either is a legit aspiration, but he can’t have both
    Buying up the media to spread far right propaganda is a legitimate aspiration? Hmm. Ok. One wonders what an illegitimate one would look like then.
    there's that term "far right" again...
    Yes. Isn’t it odd? Why does the term “far right” keep cropping up around Elon Musk? All he’s done is allow Twitter to fill up with anti-Semitic material, restore accounts to far right posters, make anti-Semitic tweets himself, praise a Holocaust denier, support the neo-Nazi AfD, pay the legal fees of Tommy Robinson, and make what looked an awful lot like Hitler salutes at a rally.
    And he’s named after a character in one of Werner Von Braun’s books, incidentally.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,964

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    MattW said:

    Cicero said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    You know, it's one thing offering a fair price and having a negotiation with Denmark over Greenland (assuming the Greenlanders agree).

    It's another thing entirely when you threaten retaliatory tariffs if fellow NATO member Denmark does not accede to your request.

    Chump, or his successor, is going to end up with a Europe armed to the teeth shunning him as a threatening rival still grounded in the 18C.

    I'd say that Greenland needs to be looking at a closer alliance with Canada.

    Mr Trump really has his eye on the North-West passage, and ultimately the USA will say "our Navy is coming through - what're you gonna do?", ignoring international law to which they pay no regard anyway if it cuts across self-interest. And short of naval mines installed by Canada, they will not stop.

    That's the USA for you.
    With Tech valuations in mid air, and red ink all over Musk's hubris Empire- I'd say the US is riding for one hell of a fall. I am meeting my financial team on Tuesday and will be looking to drastically reduce exposure to the US.

    Pride goeth before destruction and a haughty spirit before a fall.
    Like everyone else, I really can't call any of it !

    It's a random walk.
    As far as Musk is concerned- it really isn't. He has managed his businesses badly, Tesla is under significant pressure and TwiX is probably worth less than half what he paid for it. Hoing to Mars is pretty much the definition of hubris. Individual business- starlink, possibly, have value, but the overall assets of the "first trillionaire" look like a house if cards. Meta to is is also extremely vulnerable. The enshitiffication of Facebook is more and more obvious- Reddit feeds are just cheap, repetitive filler.

    At current valuations a tech rout is not only quite likely- it's all but inevitable.
    Are you richer than Elon Musk ? From memory youre in private equity ?
    At this point nobody is richer than Musk.
    So, what's your point?
    My point is nobody is richer than Elon Musk so who are you to give him advice ? When youve got to the point where you have overtaken him then you'll have a point of your own.

    So the poorer you are, the more people have the right to give you advice?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,732
    Dura_Ace said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    MattW said:

    Cicero said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    You know, it's one thing offering a fair price and having a negotiation with Denmark over Greenland (assuming the Greenlanders agree).

    It's another thing entirely when you threaten retaliatory tariffs if fellow NATO member Denmark does not accede to your request.

    Chump, or his successor, is going to end up with a Europe armed to the teeth shunning him as a threatening rival still grounded in the 18C.

    I'd say that Greenland needs to be looking at a closer alliance with Canada.

    Mr Trump really has his eye on the North-West passage, and ultimately the USA will say "our Navy is coming through - what're you gonna do?", ignoring international law to which they pay no regard anyway if it cuts across self-interest. And short of naval mines installed by Canada, they will not stop.

    That's the USA for you.
    With Tech valuations in mid air, and red ink all over Musk's hubris Empire- I'd say the US is riding for one hell of a fall. I am meeting my financial team on Tuesday and will be looking to drastically reduce exposure to the US.

    Pride goeth before destruction and a haughty spirit before a fall.
    Like everyone else, I really can't call any of it !

    It's a random walk.
    As far as Musk is concerned- it really isn't. He has managed his businesses badly, Tesla is under significant pressure and TwiX is probably worth less than half what he paid for it. Hoing to Mars is pretty much the definition of hubris. Individual business- starlink, possibly, have value, but the overall assets of the "first trillionaire" look like a house if cards. Meta to is is also extremely vulnerable. The enshitiffication of Facebook is more and more obvious- Reddit feeds are just cheap, repetitive filler.

    At current valuations a tech rout is not only quite likely- it's all but inevitable.
    Are you richer than Elon Musk ? From memory youre in private equity ?
    At this point nobody is richer than Musk.
    So, what's your point?
    My point is nobody is richer than Elon Musk so who are you to give him advice ? When youve got to the point where you have overtaken him then you'll have a point of your own.

    I presume you'll be withholding your metronomic and tedious observations on Reeves until you've been the Finance Minister of a G7 country.
    No this is pure politics and part of my campaign to become chancellor.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,147
    .

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    MattW said:

    Cicero said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    You know, it's one thing offering a fair price and having a negotiation with Denmark over Greenland (assuming the Greenlanders agree).

    It's another thing entirely when you threaten retaliatory tariffs if fellow NATO member Denmark does not accede to your request.

    Chump, or his successor, is going to end up with a Europe armed to the teeth shunning him as a threatening rival still grounded in the 18C.

    I'd say that Greenland needs to be looking at a closer alliance with Canada.

    Mr Trump really has his eye on the North-West passage, and ultimately the USA will say "our Navy is coming through - what're you gonna do?", ignoring international law to which they pay no regard anyway if it cuts across self-interest. And short of naval mines installed by Canada, they will not stop.

    That's the USA for you.
    With Tech valuations in mid air, and red ink all over Musk's hubris Empire- I'd say the US is riding for one hell of a fall. I am meeting my financial team on Tuesday and will be looking to drastically reduce exposure to the US.

    Pride goeth before destruction and a haughty spirit before a fall.
    Like everyone else, I really can't call any of it !

    It's a random walk.
    As far as Musk is concerned- it really isn't. He has managed his businesses badly, Tesla is under significant pressure and TwiX is probably worth less than half what he paid for it. Hoing to Mars is pretty much the definition of hubris. Individual business- starlink, possibly, have value, but the overall assets of the "first trillionaire" look like a house if cards. Meta to is is also extremely vulnerable. The enshitiffication of Facebook is more and more obvious- Reddit feeds are just cheap, repetitive filler.

    At current valuations a tech rout is not only quite likely- it's all but inevitable.
    Are you richer than Elon Musk ? From memory youre in private equity ?
    At this point nobody is richer than Musk.
    So, what's your point?
    My point is nobody is richer than Elon Musk so who are you to give him advice ? When youve got to the point where you have overtaken him then you'll have a point of your own.

    Pretty asinine to say no can criticise anyone richer than them.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,708
    HYUFD said:

    'Vice President JD Vance proclaimed he wants “more babies in the United States of America” on Friday in his debut speech, echoing President Trump’s promise to fight back against unrestrained abortion access.

    “Our society has failed to recognize the obligation that one generation has to another is a core part of living in a society to begin with. So let me say, very simply, I want more babies in the United States of America,” Vance declared.

    Vance added that the US had “failed a generation” by celebrating abortion access and not aiding young couples with the tools they need to support a family — saying the country had embraced a “culture of abortion on demand.”

    “We need a culture that celebrates life at all stages, one that recognizes and truly believes that the benchmark of national success is not a GDP number or our stock market, but whether people feel that they can raise thriving and healthy families, in our country,” Vance said.'

    https://nypost.com/2025/01/24/us-news/march-for-life-jd-vance-says-he-wants-more-babies-in-the-us/

    Having one in the Oval Office is more than enough, thank you.

    And whilst Vance has named the right symptom (families not feeling able to raise children), he's also picked the wrong disease (culture of abortion ) and probably the wrong KPI.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,919

    Andy_JS said:

    "Controversial tourist tax approved in Edinburgh despite warnings

    A five per cent charge will be levied on hotels, B&Bs, campsites and accommodation let through websites such as Airbnb"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/01/24/edinburgh-tourist-tax-hotels-bed-breakfast-airbnb-overnight/

    That will be an interesting test case

    It’s always struck me as a very logical tax (possibly to fund local cultural activities - a “tourist tax”) but the hospitality industry has always fought hard against it (unsurprisingly). It will be nice to have some facts.
    Been on the cards for a very long time. The DT is just doing its usual SNPBaaad and LabourBaad but the Edinburgh council is a Labour minority (very minor) with Tory (and LD) support, though (as is halfheartedly admitted by the piece) the Tories are trying to pretend it's nothing to do with them.

    Housing is indeed an issue here. The uncontrolled rise of Airbnb in Edinburgh has been at the expense of the locals - space lost and increase in general shittiness. Having it taxable imposes an additional control function and an ability to prosecute deviant landlords, besides the licensing system, I suppose.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,732
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    MattW said:

    Cicero said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    You know, it's one thing offering a fair price and having a negotiation with Denmark over Greenland (assuming the Greenlanders agree).

    It's another thing entirely when you threaten retaliatory tariffs if fellow NATO member Denmark does not accede to your request.

    Chump, or his successor, is going to end up with a Europe armed to the teeth shunning him as a threatening rival still grounded in the 18C.

    I'd say that Greenland needs to be looking at a closer alliance with Canada.

    Mr Trump really has his eye on the North-West passage, and ultimately the USA will say "our Navy is coming through - what're you gonna do?", ignoring international law to which they pay no regard anyway if it cuts across self-interest. And short of naval mines installed by Canada, they will not stop.

    That's the USA for you.
    With Tech valuations in mid air, and red ink all over Musk's hubris Empire- I'd say the US is riding for one hell of a fall. I am meeting my financial team on Tuesday and will be looking to drastically reduce exposure to the US.

    Pride goeth before destruction and a haughty spirit before a fall.
    Like everyone else, I really can't call any of it !

    It's a random walk.
    As far as Musk is concerned- it really isn't. He has managed his businesses badly, Tesla is under significant pressure and TwiX is probably worth less than half what he paid for it. Hoing to Mars is pretty much the definition of hubris. Individual business- starlink, possibly, have value, but the overall assets of the "first trillionaire" look like a house if cards. Meta to is is also extremely vulnerable. The enshitiffication of Facebook is more and more obvious- Reddit feeds are just cheap, repetitive filler.

    At current valuations a tech rout is not only quite likely- it's all but inevitable.
    Are you richer than Elon Musk ? From memory youre in private equity ?
    At this point nobody is richer than Musk.
    So, what's your point?
    My point is nobody is richer than Elon Musk so who are you to give him advice ? When youve got to the point where you have overtaken him then you'll have a point of your own.

    Pretty asinine to say no can criticise anyone richer than them.
    Pretty asinine to say the trillionaires are great guys when supporting the democrats but evil when supporting the GOP. But thats just sour grapes on your behalf
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,674

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Trump stuff on Denmark is insane.

    It's the sort of thing that would probably compel us to back Denmark, together with other European allies, and split NATO.

    I presume he couldn't take any military action without the approval of Congress. Whilst Republican controlled one would hope not all Senators would vote for such insanity.

    Can UK forces operate independently or is our technology dependent on US approval?
    They can. But that's probably time limited because of our reliance on ongoing US. technical support for quite a list if it ?
    The UK can do a lot autonomously, but one thing it definitely isn't going to do is fight (and lose badly to) the USA over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the North Atlantic.
    We've autonomously fought and won wars over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the South Atlantic before.
    Penguin shit surely? Puffins are Northern hemisphere.

    I don't think we could do the same armada now, and certainly not against the USA.

    If Trump does attack Greenland it would surely be the end of NATO. Putin couldn't ask more of Trump if he tried.
    We wouldn't be doing it alone.

    It would split NATO and very serious consequences for the USA too, which would need to be mitigated by a future administration.
    We simply don't have the military capability to fight America over Greenland even if we wanted to do so, and neither does the rest of NATO. This isn't the war of 1812.

    We could evict the 10 USAF bases here, but that would be even more terminal for the Transatlantic alliance.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,147

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    the Administration is briefing trump will force a deal, but Europe will have to pay for both policing the border, and the reconstruction of Ukraine.

    At which point, we should be determining the conditions of the deal, not him.

    Europe already provides way more financial support to Ukraine than the US does

    Merz says that if elected he will introduce controls on all Germany’s land borders and force back any illegal migrants.

    https://x.com/_friedrichmerz/status/1882847942576623760

    Merz is an idiot
    Nigelb said:

    I see Vance had to break the Senate tie to confirm the alcohol dependent incompetent, credibly accused of sexual assault, to be SecDef.

    The alcoholism and sexual assault is one thing.

    His plans to purge the military command of liberals and his disdain for democracy are more worrying. Next time Trump needs to stage a coup he aims to have the military on his side.

    50 out of 53 Republican senators voted for this. Really bad news.
    If the Dems play it right they should gain a couple of Senators in November next year. Maybe the Republicans will just lose the House too.

    Not quite enough though.
    Unless the economy is doing well enough for voters to feel it, the Democrats will take the House in the midterms.

    The Senate is a much harder task.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,147

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    MattW said:

    Cicero said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    You know, it's one thing offering a fair price and having a negotiation with Denmark over Greenland (assuming the Greenlanders agree).

    It's another thing entirely when you threaten retaliatory tariffs if fellow NATO member Denmark does not accede to your request.

    Chump, or his successor, is going to end up with a Europe armed to the teeth shunning him as a threatening rival still grounded in the 18C.

    I'd say that Greenland needs to be looking at a closer alliance with Canada.

    Mr Trump really has his eye on the North-West passage, and ultimately the USA will say "our Navy is coming through - what're you gonna do?", ignoring international law to which they pay no regard anyway if it cuts across self-interest. And short of naval mines installed by Canada, they will not stop.

    That's the USA for you.
    With Tech valuations in mid air, and red ink all over Musk's hubris Empire- I'd say the US is riding for one hell of a fall. I am meeting my financial team on Tuesday and will be looking to drastically reduce exposure to the US.

    Pride goeth before destruction and a haughty spirit before a fall.
    Like everyone else, I really can't call any of it !

    It's a random walk.
    As far as Musk is concerned- it really isn't. He has managed his businesses badly, Tesla is under significant pressure and TwiX is probably worth less than half what he paid for it. Hoing to Mars is pretty much the definition of hubris. Individual business- starlink, possibly, have value, but the overall assets of the "first trillionaire" look like a house if cards. Meta to is is also extremely vulnerable. The enshitiffication of Facebook is more and more obvious- Reddit feeds are just cheap, repetitive filler.

    At current valuations a tech rout is not only quite likely- it's all but inevitable.
    Are you richer than Elon Musk ? From memory youre in private equity ?
    At this point nobody is richer than Musk.
    So, what's your point?
    My point is nobody is richer than Elon Musk so who are you to give him advice ? When youve got to the point where you have overtaken him then you'll have a point of your own.

    Pretty asinine to say no can criticise anyone richer than them.
    Pretty asinine to say the trillionaires are great guys when supporting the democrats but evil when supporting the GOP. But thats just sour grapes on your behalf
    One if your more feeble retorts.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,732
    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    the Administration is briefing trump will force a deal, but Europe will have to pay for both policing the border, and the reconstruction of Ukraine.

    At which point, we should be determining the conditions of the deal, not him.

    Europe already provides way more financial support to Ukraine than the US does

    Merz says that if elected he will introduce controls on all Germany’s land borders and force back any illegal migrants.

    https://x.com/_friedrichmerz/status/1882847942576623760

    Merz is an idiot
    Nigelb said:

    I see Vance had to break the Senate tie to confirm the alcohol dependent incompetent, credibly accused of sexual assault, to be SecDef.

    The alcoholism and sexual assault is one thing.

    His plans to purge the military command of liberals and his disdain for democracy are more worrying. Next time Trump needs to stage a coup he aims to have the military on his side.

    50 out of 53 Republican senators voted for this. Really bad news.
    If the Dems play it right they should gain a couple of Senators in November next year. Maybe the Republicans will just lose the House too.

    Not quite enough though.
    Unless the economy is doing well enough for voters to feel it, the Democrats will take the House in the midterms.

    The Senate is a much harder task.
    And if the economy is doing well what then ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,434
    ..
    Nigelb said:

    Elon Musk Favorable Polling (Pre-Salute Polling):

    Unfavorable: 52% (+1)
    Favorable: 36% (-5)

    AP-NORC / Jan 13, 2025 / n=1147

    (% change with December 2024)

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1882878031783735772

    Surprised that Americans don’t appreciate the schmaltzy gesture of Elon giving out his big heart to the audience.

    Meanwhile Germany may be twisting itself into knots by regarding Elon’s ‘salute’ as a non Nazi gesture but the projecting of it onto a building as Nazi.

    https://x.com/giulio_mattioli/status/1882727859715981421?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,131
    Nigelb said:

    I see Vance had to break the Senate tie to confirm the alcohol dependent incompetent, credibly accused of sexual assault, to be SecDef.

    He also doesn’t like Ukraine.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,335
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Trump stuff on Denmark is insane.

    It's the sort of thing that would probably compel us to back Denmark, together with other European allies, and split NATO.

    I presume he couldn't take any military action without the approval of Congress. Whilst Republican controlled one would hope not all Senators would vote for such insanity.

    Can UK forces operate independently or is our technology dependent on US approval?
    They can. But that's probably time limited because of our reliance on ongoing US. technical support for quite a list if it ?
    The UK can do a lot autonomously, but one thing it definitely isn't going to do is fight (and lose badly to) the USA over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the North Atlantic.
    We've autonomously fought and won wars over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the South Atlantic before.
    Penguin shit surely? Puffins are Northern hemisphere.

    I don't think we could do the same armada now, and certainly not against the USA.

    If Trump does attack Greenland it would surely be the end of NATO. Putin couldn't ask more of Trump if he tried.
    We wouldn't be doing it alone.

    It would split NATO and very serious consequences for the USA too, which would need to be mitigated by a future administration.
    We simply don't have the military capability to fight America over Greenland even if we wanted to do so, and neither does the rest of NATO. This isn't the war of 1812.

    We could evict the 10 USAF bases here, but that would be even more terminal for the Transatlantic alliance.

    UK-France could deploy 2 carriers and with other European allies, like Spain and Italy, enough of a maritime force and subs to be a very strong tripwire that - together with a battlegroup on the ground - would require serious force to overcome. Biggest issue would be establishing an integrated command without the US in it and logistical support.

    Of course, America could decide to shoot all that up but then a very large Rubicon would have been crossed for good - and I don't think the American public would stand for casualties for that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,147

    ..

    Nigelb said:

    Elon Musk Favorable Polling (Pre-Salute Polling):

    Unfavorable: 52% (+1)
    Favorable: 36% (-5)

    AP-NORC / Jan 13, 2025 / n=1147

    (% change with December 2024)

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1882878031783735772

    Surprised that Americans don’t appreciate the schmaltzy gesture of Elon giving out his big heart to the audience.

    Meanwhile Germany may be twisting itself into knots by regarding Elon’s ‘salute’ as a non Nazi gesture but the projecting of it onto a building as Nazi.

    https://x.com/giulio_mattioli/status/1882727859715981421?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
    The poll was before that.
    But they seem ti be doing them regularly, so we'll see.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,919
    edited January 25

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Trump stuff on Denmark is insane.

    It's the sort of thing that would probably compel us to back Denmark, together with other European allies, and split NATO.

    I presume he couldn't take any military action without the approval of Congress. Whilst Republican controlled one would hope not all Senators would vote for such insanity.

    Can UK forces operate independently or is our technology dependent on US approval?
    They can. But that's probably time limited because of our reliance on ongoing US. technical support for quite a list if it ?
    The UK can do a lot autonomously, but one thing it definitely isn't going to do is fight (and lose badly to) the USA over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the North Atlantic.
    We've autonomously fought and won wars over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the South Atlantic before.
    Correction - penguin shit. There are no puffins in the southern hemisphere. And the only penguins in the northern hemisphere are on the Galapogos Islands, and even then, only by a few miles.
    It's this sort of pedantry that makes pb what it is.
    To be even more pedantic, the real penguins come, or at least came, from the Northern Hemisphere, Great Auks and so on (ie the family to which the puffins belong). This "southern" hemisphere penguin stuff is a total misnaming by unimaginative whalers as any fule kno.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,674

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Trump stuff on Denmark is insane.

    It's the sort of thing that would probably compel us to back Denmark, together with other European allies, and split NATO.

    I presume he couldn't take any military action without the approval of Congress. Whilst Republican controlled one would hope not all Senators would vote for such insanity.

    Can UK forces operate independently or is our technology dependent on US approval?
    They can. But that's probably time limited because of our reliance on ongoing US. technical support for quite a list if it ?
    The UK can do a lot autonomously, but one thing it definitely isn't going to do is fight (and lose badly to) the USA over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the North Atlantic.
    We've autonomously fought and won wars over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the South Atlantic before.
    Penguin shit surely? Puffins are Northern hemisphere.

    I don't think we could do the same armada now, and certainly not against the USA.

    If Trump does attack Greenland it would surely be the end of NATO. Putin couldn't ask more of Trump if he tried.
    We wouldn't be doing it alone.

    It would split NATO and very serious consequences for the USA too, which would need to be mitigated by a future administration.
    We simply don't have the military capability to fight America over Greenland even if we wanted to do so, and neither does the rest of NATO. This isn't the war of 1812.

    We could evict the 10 USAF bases here, but that would be even more terminal for the Transatlantic alliance.

    UK-France could deploy 2 carriers and with other European allies, like Spain and Italy, enough of a maritime force and subs to be a very strong tripwire that - together with a battlegroup on the ground - would require serious force to overcome. Biggest issue would be establishing an integrated command without the US in it and logistical support.

    Of course, America could decide to shoot all that up but then a very large Rubicon would have been crossed for good - and I don't think the American public would stand for casualties for that.
    The French carrier is in the Pacific, and ours is in Porstmouth preparing to go there.



  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,147

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    the Administration is briefing trump will force a deal, but Europe will have to pay for both policing the border, and the reconstruction of Ukraine.

    At which point, we should be determining the conditions of the deal, not him.

    Europe already provides way more financial support to Ukraine than the US does

    Merz says that if elected he will introduce controls on all Germany’s land borders and force back any illegal migrants.

    https://x.com/_friedrichmerz/status/1882847942576623760

    Merz is an idiot
    Nigelb said:

    I see Vance had to break the Senate tie to confirm the alcohol dependent incompetent, credibly accused of sexual assault, to be SecDef.

    The alcoholism and sexual assault is one thing.

    His plans to purge the military command of liberals and his disdain for democracy are more worrying. Next time Trump needs to stage a coup he aims to have the military on his side.

    50 out of 53 Republican senators voted for this. Really bad news.
    If the Dems play it right they should gain a couple of Senators in November next year. Maybe the Republicans will just lose the House too.

    Not quite enough though.
    Unless the economy is doing well enough for voters to feel it, the Democrats will take the House in the midterms.

    The Senate is a much harder task.
    And if the economy is doing well what then ?
    Then it's about turnout and whatever else is going on.
    Point is the governing party always tends to lose the uncommitted voters in the midterms.
    That on its own would flip the House.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,131
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Trump stuff on Denmark is insane.

    It's the sort of thing that would probably compel us to back Denmark, together with other European allies, and split NATO.

    I presume he couldn't take any military action without the approval of Congress. Whilst Republican controlled one would hope not all Senators would vote for such insanity.

    Can UK forces operate independently or is our technology dependent on US approval?
    They can. But that's probably time limited because of our reliance on ongoing US. technical support for quite a list if it ?
    The UK can do a lot autonomously, but one thing it definitely isn't going to do is fight (and lose badly to) the USA over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the North Atlantic.
    We've autonomously fought and won wars over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the South Atlantic before.
    Penguin shit surely? Puffins are Northern hemisphere.

    I don't think we could do the same armada now, and certainly not against the USA.

    If Trump does attack Greenland it would surely be the end of NATO. Putin couldn't ask more of Trump if he tried.
    We wouldn't be doing it alone.

    It would split NATO and very serious consequences for the USA too, which would need to be mitigated by a future administration.
    We simply don't have the military capability to fight America over Greenland even if we wanted to do so, and neither does the rest of NATO. This isn't the war of 1812.

    We could evict the 10 USAF bases here, but that would be even more terminal for the Transatlantic alliance.

    UK-France could deploy 2 carriers and with other European allies, like Spain and Italy, enough of a maritime force and subs to be a very strong tripwire that - together with a battlegroup on the ground - would require serious force to overcome. Biggest issue would be establishing an integrated command without the US in it and logistical support.

    Of course, America could decide to shoot all that up but then a very large Rubicon would have been crossed for good - and I don't think the American public would stand for casualties for that.
    The French carrier is in the Pacific, and ours is in Porstmouth preparing to go there.
    Well, that will be good for our counter-attack on Hawai’i.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,332
    ohnotnow said:

    The main bbc news is delayed 30mins because of some bollocks called 'traitors'?



    The rest of my family are watching it on i-player while I'm festering on here.

    I yearn for the honest simplicity of It's a Knockout.
    I keep thinking, in an alternate timeline, Nigel Farage could have made a great "It's A Knockout" presenter. Would have made all our lives simpler.
    Farage has not succeeded in convincing everyone that the Tories and Labour are crap because he is some absurd hybrid of the pied piper and Michael Barrymore. The Tories and Labour are crap. What they have done is crap. If it wasn't him it would be someone else - in many ways we're lucky it's him.
  • Morning PB'ers.

    Stunningly hagiographic series of interviews on Trump, on Today, at the moment. The supposedly "left-wing BBC", is nowhere to be seen.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,708
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    the Administration is briefing trump will force a deal, but Europe will have to pay for both policing the border, and the reconstruction of Ukraine.

    At which point, we should be determining the conditions of the deal, not him.

    Europe already provides way more financial support to Ukraine than the US does

    Merz says that if elected he will introduce controls on all Germany’s land borders and force back any illegal migrants.

    https://x.com/_friedrichmerz/status/1882847942576623760

    Merz is an idiot
    Nigelb said:

    I see Vance had to break the Senate tie to confirm the alcohol dependent incompetent, credibly accused of sexual assault, to be SecDef.

    The alcoholism and sexual assault is one thing.

    His plans to purge the military command of liberals and his disdain for democracy are more worrying. Next time Trump needs to stage a coup he aims to have the military on his side.

    50 out of 53 Republican senators voted for this. Really bad news.
    If the Dems play it right they should gain a couple of Senators in November next year. Maybe the Republicans will just lose the House too.

    Not quite enough though.
    Unless the economy is doing well enough for voters to feel it, the Democrats will take the House in the midterms.

    The Senate is a much harder task.
    And if the economy is doing well what then ?
    Then it's about turnout and whatever else is going on.
    Point is the governing party always tends to lose the uncommitted voters in the midterms.
    That on its own would flip the House.
    And with that, we're back to the header. The simplest model of BritPol is Labour won pretty much all the uncommitteds in July, mostly without enthusiasm. The main thing since then has been that those uncommitteds have drifted away again for now.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,301

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Trump stuff on Denmark is insane.

    It's the sort of thing that would probably compel us to back Denmark, together with other European allies, and split NATO.

    I presume he couldn't take any military action without the approval of Congress. Whilst Republican controlled one would hope not all Senators would vote for such insanity.

    Can UK forces operate independently or is our technology dependent on US approval?
    They can. But that's probably time limited because of our reliance on ongoing US. technical support for quite a list if it ?
    The UK can do a lot autonomously, but one thing it definitely isn't going to do is fight (and lose badly to) the USA over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the North Atlantic.
    We've autonomously fought and won wars over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the South Atlantic before.
    Correction - penguin shit. There are no puffins in the southern hemisphere. And the only penguins in the northern hemisphere are on the Galapogos Islands, and even then, only by a few miles.
    FAKE NEWS ALERT. You can get 14 penguins for £1.75 in Asda.
    Yeah, but they don't shit.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,674
    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Controversial tourist tax approved in Edinburgh despite warnings

    A five per cent charge will be levied on hotels, B&Bs, campsites and accommodation let through websites such as Airbnb"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/01/24/edinburgh-tourist-tax-hotels-bed-breakfast-airbnb-overnight/

    That will be an interesting test case

    It’s always struck me as a very logical tax (possibly to fund local cultural activities - a “tourist tax”) but the hospitality industry has always fought hard against it (unsurprisingly). It will be nice to have some facts.
    Been on the cards for a very long time. The DT is just doing its usual SNPBaaad and LabourBaad but the Edinburgh council is a Labour minority (very minor) with Tory (and LD) support, though (as is halfheartedly admitted by the piece) the Tories are trying to pretend it's nothing to do with them.

    Housing is indeed an issue here. The uncontrolled rise of Airbnb in Edinburgh has been at the expense of the locals - space lost and increase in general shittiness. Having it taxable imposes an additional control function and an ability to prosecute deviant landlords, besides the licensing system, I suppose.
    Edinburgh is right to do this. Otherwise it goes the way of Lisbon and Barcelona, cities where the old quarters are a simulacrum of the old city populated only by hen and stag parties in AirBnB.

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,121
    Cicero said:

    MattW said:

    Cicero said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    You know, it's one thing offering a fair price and having a negotiation with Denmark over Greenland (assuming the Greenlanders agree).

    It's another thing entirely when you threaten retaliatory tariffs if fellow NATO member Denmark does not accede to your request.

    Chump, or his successor, is going to end up with a Europe armed to the teeth shunning him as a threatening rival still grounded in the 18C.

    I'd say that Greenland needs to be looking at a closer alliance with Canada.

    Mr Trump really has his eye on the North-West passage, and ultimately the USA will say "our Navy is coming through - what're you gonna do?", ignoring international law to which they pay no regard anyway if it cuts across self-interest. And short of naval mines installed by Canada, they will not stop.

    That's the USA for you.
    With Tech valuations in mid air, and red ink all over Musk's hubris Empire- I'd say the US is riding for one hell of a fall. I am meeting my financial team on Tuesday and will be looking to drastically reduce exposure to the US.

    Pride goeth before destruction and a haughty spirit before a fall.
    Like everyone else, I really can't call any of it !

    It's a random walk.
    As far as Musk is concerned- it really isn't. He has managed his businesses badly, Tesla is under significant pressure and TwiX is probably worth less than half what he paid for it. Hoing to Mars is pretty much the definition of hubris. Individual business- starlink, possibly, have value, but the overall assets of the "first trillionaire" look like a house if cards. Meta to is is also extremely vulnerable. The enshitiffication of Facebook is more and more obvious- Reddit feeds are just cheap, repetitive filler.

    At current valuations a tech rout is not only quite likely- it's all but inevitable.
    We should have had one already, but Generative AI came along and postponed it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,147

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Trump stuff on Denmark is insane.

    It's the sort of thing that would probably compel us to back Denmark, together with other European allies, and split NATO.

    I presume he couldn't take any military action without the approval of Congress. Whilst Republican controlled one would hope not all Senators would vote for such insanity.

    Can UK forces operate independently or is our technology dependent on US approval?
    They can. But that's probably time limited because of our reliance on ongoing US. technical support for quite a list if it ?
    The UK can do a lot autonomously, but one thing it definitely isn't going to do is fight (and lose badly to) the USA over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the North Atlantic.
    We've autonomously fought and won wars over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the South Atlantic before.
    Penguin shit surely? Puffins are Northern hemisphere.

    I don't think we could do the same armada now, and certainly not against the USA.

    If Trump does attack Greenland it would surely be the end of NATO. Putin couldn't ask more of Trump if he tried.
    We wouldn't be doing it alone.

    It would split NATO and very serious consequences for the USA too, which would need to be mitigated by a future administration.
    We simply don't have the military capability to fight America over Greenland even if we wanted to do so, and neither does the rest of NATO. This isn't the war of 1812.

    We could evict the 10 USAF bases here, but that would be even more terminal for the Transatlantic alliance.

    UK-France could deploy 2 carriers and with other European allies, like Spain and Italy, enough of a maritime force and subs to be a very strong tripwire that - together with a battlegroup on the ground - would require serious force to overcome. Biggest issue would be establishing an integrated command without the US in it and logistical support.

    Of course, America could decide to shoot all that up but then a very large Rubicon would have been crossed for good - and I don't think the American public would stand for casualties for that.
    The French carrier is in the Pacific, and ours is in Porstmouth preparing to go there.
    Well, that will be good for our counter-attack on Hawai’i.
    Perhaps we should invite Japan and give Tulsi conniptions.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,301

    Nobody was richer than Crassus either.

    You'll find it's spelt "Creases" on here....

    (You had to be here, back in the day...)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,732
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    the Administration is briefing trump will force a deal, but Europe will have to pay for both policing the border, and the reconstruction of Ukraine.

    At which point, we should be determining the conditions of the deal, not him.

    Europe already provides way more financial support to Ukraine than the US does

    Merz says that if elected he will introduce controls on all Germany’s land borders and force back any illegal migrants.

    https://x.com/_friedrichmerz/status/1882847942576623760

    Merz is an idiot
    Nigelb said:

    I see Vance had to break the Senate tie to confirm the alcohol dependent incompetent, credibly accused of sexual assault, to be SecDef.

    The alcoholism and sexual assault is one thing.

    His plans to purge the military command of liberals and his disdain for democracy are more worrying. Next time Trump needs to stage a coup he aims to have the military on his side.

    50 out of 53 Republican senators voted for this. Really bad news.
    If the Dems play it right they should gain a couple of Senators in November next year. Maybe the Republicans will just lose the House too.

    Not quite enough though.
    Unless the economy is doing well enough for voters to feel it, the Democrats will take the House in the midterms.

    The Senate is a much harder task.
    And if the economy is doing well what then ?
    Then it's about turnout and whatever else is going on.
    Point is the governing party always tends to lose the uncommitted voters in the midterms.
    That on its own would flip the House.
    As we find with Trump the past is no guide to the future, and the Democrats still havent figured out what hit them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,147

    Morning PB'ers.

    Stunningly hagiographic series of interviews on Trump, on Today, at the moment. The supposedly "left-wing BBC", is nowhere to be seen.

    BBC coverage of Trump has been pretty fanboy for a while.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,260
    edited January 25

    Driver said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @techmeme.com‬

    In email to X staff, Musk says "user growth is stagnant, revenue is unimpressive, and we're barely breaking even"; sources: banks plan to sell their debt in X (Wall Street Journal)

    https://bsky.app/profile/techmeme.com/post/3lgjbldyxgo2h

    That can't be correct as Elon fans in their black shorts keep saying that Twitter is doing really well.
    Has Musk only just noticed all his X numbers are going to shit?

    Tesla also in shit.

    Maybe he should get back to his day job(s) and stop trying to overthrow european governments?
    Yes. Musk has to decide whether he wants X as a personal bully pulpit, or as a successful growing social medium

    Either is a legit aspiration, but he can’t have both
    Buying up the media to spread far right propaganda is a legitimate aspiration? Hmm. Ok. One wonders what an illegitimate one would look like then.
    there's that term "far right" again...
    Yes. Isn’t it odd? Why does the term “far right” keep cropping up around Elon Musk? All he’s done is allow Twitter to fill up with anti-Semitic material, restore accounts to far right posters, make anti-Semitic tweets himself, praise a Holocaust denier, support the neo-Nazi AfD, pay the legal fees of Tommy Robinson, and make what looked an awful lot like Hitler salutes at a rally.
    I had a quick look at the "for you" section of twitter this morning and was confronted with a series of posts blaming the Jews for RFK/JFK, apparently based on files released by Trump's EO.

    It's...sorta happening, isn't it?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,098

    Nobody was richer than Crassus either.

    You'll find it's spelt "Creases" on here....

    (You had to be here, back in the day...)
    That was a play on Croesus, the ruler of the kingdom of Lydia. Crassus was the third triumvir alongside Pompey and Julius Caesar. His career took a sharp decline following the Battle of Carrhae, when the Parthians ended his career by pouring molten gold down his throat.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,434

    Morning PB'ers.

    Stunningly hagiographic series of interviews on Trump, on Today, at the moment. The supposedly "left-wing BBC", is nowhere to be seen.

    They’re just following the ‘left wing’ Labour line.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Trump stuff on Denmark is insane.

    It's the sort of thing that would probably compel us to back Denmark, together with other European allies, and split NATO.

    I presume he couldn't take any military action without the approval of Congress. Whilst Republican controlled one would hope not all Senators would vote for such insanity.

    Can UK forces operate independently or is our technology dependent on US approval?
    They can. But that's probably time limited because of our reliance on ongoing US. technical support for quite a list if it ?
    The UK can do a lot autonomously, but one thing it definitely isn't going to do is fight (and lose badly to) the USA over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the North Atlantic.
    We've autonomously fought and won wars over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the South Atlantic before.
    Penguin shit surely? Puffins are Northern hemisphere.

    I don't think we could do the same armada now, and certainly not against the USA.

    If Trump does attack Greenland it would surely be the end of NATO. Putin couldn't ask more of Trump if he tried.
    We wouldn't be doing it alone.

    It would split NATO and very serious consequences for the USA too, which would need to be mitigated by a future administration.
    We simply don't have the military capability to fight America over Greenland even if we wanted to do so, and neither does the rest of NATO. This isn't the war of 1812.

    We could evict the 10 USAF bases here, but that would be even more terminal for the Transatlantic alliance.

    UK-France could deploy 2 carriers and with other European allies, like Spain and Italy, enough of a maritime force and subs to be a very strong tripwire that - together with a battlegroup on the ground - would require serious force to overcome. Biggest issue would be establishing an integrated command without the US in it and logistical support.

    Of course, America could decide to shoot all that up but then a very large Rubicon would have been crossed for good - and I don't think the American public would stand for casualties for that.
    The Greeks actually have quite a large navy, too, and surprisingly. A lot of their money over the years, has gon on that.

    The combined navies of France, Itajy, Spain, and Greece, are actually pretty large. This is part of what Macron's EU-Med is based on.

    Meanwhile the UK is engaged in strategic lunacy, like Bae building a joint stealth aircraft with Turkey, started when Erdogan was an ally.

    There's going to have to be quite a lot of strategic rethinking of things
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,708
    Eabhal said:

    Driver said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @techmeme.com‬

    In email to X staff, Musk says "user growth is stagnant, revenue is unimpressive, and we're barely breaking even"; sources: banks plan to sell their debt in X (Wall Street Journal)

    https://bsky.app/profile/techmeme.com/post/3lgjbldyxgo2h

    That can't be correct as Elon fans in their black shorts keep saying that Twitter is doing really well.
    Has Musk only just noticed all his X numbers are going to shit?

    Tesla also in shit.

    Maybe he should get back to his day job(s) and stop trying to overthrow european governments?
    Yes. Musk has to decide whether he wants X as a personal bully pulpit, or as a successful growing social medium

    Either is a legit aspiration, but he can’t have both
    Buying up the media to spread far right propaganda is a legitimate aspiration? Hmm. Ok. One wonders what an illegitimate one would look like then.
    there's that term "far right" again...
    Yes. Isn’t it odd? Why does the term “far right” keep cropping up around Elon Musk? All he’s done is allow Twitter to fill up with anti-Semitic material, restore accounts to far right posters, make anti-Semitic tweets himself, praise a Holocaust denier, support the neo-Nazi AfD, pay the legal fees of Tommy Robinson, and make what looked an awful lot like Hitler salutes at a rally.
    I had a quick look at the "for you" section of twitter this morning and was confronted with a series of posts blaming the Jews for RFK/JFK, apparently based on files released by Trump's EO.

    It's...sorta happening, isn't it?
    Which was pretty much bound to happen.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,260

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Trump stuff on Denmark is insane.

    It's the sort of thing that would probably compel us to back Denmark, together with other European allies, and split NATO.

    I presume he couldn't take any military action without the approval of Congress. Whilst Republican controlled one would hope not all Senators would vote for such insanity.

    Can UK forces operate independently or is our technology dependent on US approval?
    They can. But that's probably time limited because of our reliance on ongoing US. technical support for quite a list if it ?
    The UK can do a lot autonomously, but one thing it definitely isn't going to do is fight (and lose badly to) the USA over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the North Atlantic.
    We've autonomously fought and won wars over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the South Atlantic before.
    Penguin shit surely? Puffins are Northern hemisphere.

    I don't think we could do the same armada now, and certainly not against the USA.

    If Trump does attack Greenland it would surely be the end of NATO. Putin couldn't ask more of Trump if he tried.
    We wouldn't be doing it alone.

    It would split NATO and very serious consequences for the USA too, which would need to be mitigated by a future administration.
    We simply don't have the military capability to fight America over Greenland even if we wanted to do so, and neither does the rest of NATO. This isn't the war of 1812.

    We could evict the 10 USAF bases here, but that would be even more terminal for the Transatlantic alliance.

    UK-France could deploy 2 carriers and with other European allies, like Spain and Italy, enough of a maritime force and subs to be a very strong tripwire that - together with a battlegroup on the ground - would require serious force to overcome. Biggest issue would be establishing an integrated command without the US in it and logistical support.

    Of course, America could decide to shoot all that up but then a very large Rubicon would have been crossed for good - and I don't think the American public would stand for casualties for that.
    You don't even need that. Station the Princess Royal and a number of friendly golden retreivers in Nuuk as a poison pill.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,457
    Good morning PB

    Sounds like Trump is preparing to annex Greenland and potentially go to war with Denmark?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,147
    edited January 25
    rcs1000 said:

    A little piece I wrote on Substack about agency: https://open.substack.com/pub/robertsmithson1/p/agency-and-the-new-administration

    I should probably post it here too...

    Nice article.
    You should post it as a header.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,964
    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    the Administration is briefing trump will force a deal, but Europe will have to pay for both policing the border, and the reconstruction of Ukraine.

    At which point, we should be determining the conditions of the deal, not him.

    Europe already provides way more financial support to Ukraine than the US does

    Merz says that if elected he will introduce controls on all Germany’s land borders and force back any illegal migrants.

    https://x.com/_friedrichmerz/status/1882847942576623760

    Merz is an idiot
    Nigelb said:

    I see Vance had to break the Senate tie to confirm the alcohol dependent incompetent, credibly accused of sexual assault, to be SecDef.

    The alcoholism and sexual assault is one thing.

    His plans to purge the military command of liberals and his disdain for democracy are more worrying. Next time Trump needs to stage a coup he aims to have the military on his side.

    50 out of 53 Republican senators voted for this. Really bad news.
    If the Dems play it right they should gain a couple of Senators in November next year. Maybe the Republicans will just lose the House too.

    Not quite enough though.
    Unless the economy is doing well enough for voters to feel it, the Democrats will take the House in the midterms.

    The Senate is a much harder task.
    I would be staggered if the Democrats take the Senate. And I think it is unlikely the Republicans hold the House.

    It's also entirely possible the Republicans lose the House even before the midterms. With Victoria Spartz having quit the party, and Elise Stefanik's district being a possible Dem pickup in the Special, we could easily be at 218-1-216 by midyear.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,462
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    the Administration is briefing trump will force a deal, but Europe will have to pay for both policing the border, and the reconstruction of Ukraine.

    At which point, we should be determining the conditions of the deal, not him.

    Europe already provides way more financial support to Ukraine than the US does

    Merz says that if elected he will introduce controls on all Germany’s land borders and force back any illegal migrants.

    https://x.com/_friedrichmerz/status/1882847942576623760

    Merz is an idiot
    Nigelb said:

    I see Vance had to break the Senate tie to confirm the alcohol dependent incompetent, credibly accused of sexual assault, to be SecDef.

    The alcoholism and sexual assault is one thing.

    His plans to purge the military command of liberals and his disdain for democracy are more worrying. Next time Trump needs to stage a coup he aims to have the military on his side.

    50 out of 53 Republican senators voted for this. Really bad news.
    If the Dems play it right they should gain a couple of Senators in November next year. Maybe the Republicans will just lose the House too.

    Not quite enough though.
    Unless the economy is doing well enough for voters to feel it, the Democrats will take the House in the midterms.

    The Senate is a much harder task.
    I would be staggered if the Democrats take the Senate. And I think it is unlikely the Republicans hold the House.

    It's also entirely possible the Republicans lose the House even before the midterms. With Victoria Spartz having quit the party, and Elise Stefanik's district being a possible Dem pickup in the Special, we could easily be at 218-1-216 by midyear.
    Bound to be some defections over the next 2 years too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,903
    Dura_Ace said:

    The Trump stuff on Denmark is insane.

    It's the sort of thing that would probably compel us to back Denmark, together with other European allies, and split NATO.

    I presume he couldn't take any military action without the approval of Congress. Whilst Republican controlled one would hope not all Senators would vote for such insanity.

    Then it's over. Europe aren't going to fight the USA over it. We'd all feel a bit shit about it for a bit then get over it.
    Such is the case in foreign affairs more often than not.

    Taking action is hard and usually not worth the risk.

  • NEW THREAD

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,335
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Trump stuff on Denmark is insane.

    It's the sort of thing that would probably compel us to back Denmark, together with other European allies, and split NATO.

    I presume he couldn't take any military action without the approval of Congress. Whilst Republican controlled one would hope not all Senators would vote for such insanity.

    Can UK forces operate independently or is our technology dependent on US approval?
    They can. But that's probably time limited because of our reliance on ongoing US. technical support for quite a list if it ?
    The UK can do a lot autonomously, but one thing it definitely isn't going to do is fight (and lose badly to) the USA over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the North Atlantic.
    We've autonomously fought and won wars over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the South Atlantic before.
    Penguin shit surely? Puffins are Northern hemisphere.

    I don't think we could do the same armada now, and certainly not against the USA.

    If Trump does attack Greenland it would surely be the end of NATO. Putin couldn't ask more of Trump if he tried.
    We wouldn't be doing it alone.

    It would split NATO and very serious consequences for the USA too, which would need to be mitigated by a future administration.
    We simply don't have the military capability to fight America over Greenland even if we wanted to do so, and neither does the rest of NATO. This isn't the war of 1812.

    We could evict the 10 USAF bases here, but that would be even more terminal for the Transatlantic alliance.

    UK-France could deploy 2 carriers and with other European allies, like Spain and Italy, enough of a maritime force and subs to be a very strong tripwire that - together with a battlegroup on the ground - would require serious force to overcome. Biggest issue would be establishing an integrated command without the US in it and logistical support.

    Of course, America could decide to shoot all that up but then a very large Rubicon would have been crossed for good - and I don't think the American public would stand for casualties for that.
    The French carrier is in the Pacific, and ours is in Porstmouth preparing to go there.



    Oh, shit! I forgot they don't have rudders and engines.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,322

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    MattW said:

    Cicero said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    You know, it's one thing offering a fair price and having a negotiation with Denmark over Greenland (assuming the Greenlanders agree).

    It's another thing entirely when you threaten retaliatory tariffs if fellow NATO member Denmark does not accede to your request.

    Chump, or his successor, is going to end up with a Europe armed to the teeth shunning him as a threatening rival still grounded in the 18C.

    I'd say that Greenland needs to be looking at a closer alliance with Canada.

    Mr Trump really has his eye on the North-West passage, and ultimately the USA will say "our Navy is coming through - what're you gonna do?", ignoring international law to which they pay no regard anyway if it cuts across self-interest. And short of naval mines installed by Canada, they will not stop.

    That's the USA for you.
    With Tech valuations in mid air, and red ink all over Musk's hubris Empire- I'd say the US is riding for one hell of a fall. I am meeting my financial team on Tuesday and will be looking to drastically reduce exposure to the US.

    Pride goeth before destruction and a haughty spirit before a fall.
    Like everyone else, I really can't call any of it !

    It's a random walk.
    As far as Musk is concerned- it really isn't. He has managed his businesses badly, Tesla is under significant pressure and TwiX is probably worth less than half what he paid for it. Hoing to Mars is pretty much the definition of hubris. Individual business- starlink, possibly, have value, but the overall assets of the "first trillionaire" look like a house if cards. Meta to is is also extremely vulnerable. The enshitiffication of Facebook is more and more obvious- Reddit feeds are just cheap, repetitive filler.

    At current valuations a tech rout is not only quite likely- it's all but inevitable.
    Are you richer than Elon Musk ? From memory youre in private equity ?
    At this point nobody is richer than Musk.
    So, what's your point?
    My point is nobody is richer than Elon Musk so who are you to give him advice ? When youve got to the point where you have overtaken him then you'll have a point of your own.

    Pretty asinine to say no can criticise anyone richer than them.
    Pretty asinine to say the trillionaires are great guys when supporting the democrats but evil when supporting the GOP. But thats just sour grapes on your behalf
    Musk is a shit. But maybe you don't think so. Maybe you agree with him about the AfD, for example.

    I'd need to know who has said which Democrat supporting trillionaires are great guys, before making a comparison.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,674
    On the important topic of marine ornithology, there was a population of penguins living wild in Norway between 1936 and 1949.

    https://sorpolen2011.npolar.no/en/did-you-know/2011-12-05-penguins-used-to-live-in-lofoten.html

    And before a new header, and time for me to take the pup out, can I just go full Fotherington-Thomas and say "Hullo clouds, hullo sky"...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,903
    FF43 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The Trump stuff on Denmark is insane.

    It's the sort of thing that would probably compel us to back Denmark, together with other European allies, and split NATO.

    I presume he couldn't take any military action without the approval of Congress. Whilst Republican controlled one would hope not all Senators would vote for such insanity.

    It wouldn't need military action. The population of Greenland is tiny and they have no armed forces of their own to speak of. DJT could just send CIA SADs/PMCs into Nuuk to round up the government and take over the airport. They've already got forces in Greenland if necessay. The janitorial team from Thule AFB could probably do it.

    Then it's over. Europe aren't going to fight the USA over it. We'd all feel a bit shit about it for a bit then get over it.
    No, we wouldn't get over it.

    It would have very serious repercussions.
    You're both right I think. Trump is picking off Greenland because he believes it's an easy win for him. Much the same calculation as Putin's invasions of Ukraine. But the repercussions will be serious. The World depends on states behaving properly, particularly the USA.
    The world feels like it is getting more dangerous, with thinly disguised or not disguised at all wars of conquest happening or being threatened in a way that feels odd after WW2.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,686
    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Controversial tourist tax approved in Edinburgh despite warnings

    A five per cent charge will be levied on hotels, B&Bs, campsites and accommodation let through websites such as Airbnb"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/01/24/edinburgh-tourist-tax-hotels-bed-breakfast-airbnb-overnight/

    That will be an interesting test case

    It’s always struck me as a very logical tax (possibly to fund local cultural activities - a “tourist tax”) but the hospitality industry has always fought hard against it (unsurprisingly). It will be nice to have some facts.
    Been on the cards for a very long time. The DT is just doing its usual SNPBaaad and LabourBaad but the Edinburgh council is a Labour minority (very minor) with Tory (and LD) support, though (as is halfheartedly admitted by the piece) the Tories are trying to pretend it's nothing to do with them.

    Housing is indeed an issue here. The uncontrolled rise of Airbnb in Edinburgh has been at the expense of the locals - space lost and increase in general shittiness. Having it taxable imposes an additional control function and an ability to prosecute
    deviant landlords, besides the licensing
    system, I suppose.
    5% does seem a lot though. In the US it’s typically around £2-3 a night

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,131
    “Auschwitz survivor says he was alarmed by Elon Musk's gesture at Trump event”

    https://www.rmoutlook.com/national-news/auschwitz-survivor-says-he-was-alarmed-by-elon-musks-gesture-at-trump-event-10126657

    Perhaps @Driver would like to correct him?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,471

    Andy_JS said:

    "Controversial tourist tax approved in Edinburgh despite warnings

    A five per cent charge will be levied on hotels, B&Bs, campsites and accommodation let through websites such as Airbnb"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/01/24/edinburgh-tourist-tax-hotels-bed-breakfast-airbnb-overnight/

    That will be an interesting test case

    It’s always struck me as a very logical tax (possibly to fund local cultural activities - a “tourist tax”) but the hospitality industry has always fought hard against it (unsurprisingly). It will be nice to have some facts.
    Is this not already in place (or at least in process) in Manchester and Wales?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,686

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Trump stuff on Denmark is insane.

    It's the sort of thing that would probably compel us to back Denmark, together with other European allies, and split NATO.

    I presume he couldn't take any military action without the approval of Congress. Whilst Republican controlled one would hope not all Senators would vote for such insanity.

    Can UK forces operate independently or is our technology dependent on US approval?
    They can. But that's probably time limited because of our reliance on ongoing US. technical support for quite a list if it ?
    The UK can do a lot autonomously, but one thing it definitely isn't going to do is fight (and lose badly to) the USA over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the North Atlantic.
    We've autonomously fought and won wars over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the South Atlantic before.
    Penguin shit surely? Puffins are Northern hemisphere.

    I don't think we could do the same armada now, and certainly not against the USA.

    If Trump does attack Greenland it would surely be the end of NATO. Putin couldn't ask more of Trump if he tried.
    We wouldn't be doing it alone.

    It would split NATO and very serious consequences for the USA too, which would need to be mitigated by a future administration.
    We simply don't have the military capability to fight America over Greenland even if we wanted to do so, and neither does the rest of NATO. This isn't the war of 1812.

    We could evict the 10 USAF bases here, but that would be even more terminal for the Transatlantic alliance.

    UK-France could deploy 2 carriers and with other European allies, like Spain and Italy, enough of a maritime force and subs to be a very strong tripwire that - together with a battlegroup on the ground - would require serious force to overcome. Biggest issue would be establishing an integrated command without the US in it and logistical support.

    Of course, America could decide to shoot all that up but then a very large Rubicon would have been crossed for good - and I don't think the American public would stand for casualties for that.
    The French carrier is in the Pacific, and ours is in Porstmouth preparing to go there.

    Well, that will be good for our counter-attack on Hawai’i.
    You mean the Sandwich Islands?
  • “Auschwitz survivor says he was alarmed by Elon Musk's gesture at Trump event”

    https://www.rmoutlook.com/national-news/auschwitz-survivor-says-he-was-alarmed-by-elon-musks-gesture-at-trump-event-10126657

    Perhaps @Driver would like to correct him?

    As mentioned last week, he would probably be even more alarmed about why he's named Elon in the first place.

    Good old Erroll Musk.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,442
    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Controversial tourist tax approved in Edinburgh despite warnings

    A five per cent charge will be levied on hotels, B&Bs, campsites and accommodation let through websites such as Airbnb"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/01/24/edinburgh-tourist-tax-hotels-bed-breakfast-airbnb-overnight/

    That will be an interesting test case

    It’s always struck me as a very logical tax (possibly to fund local cultural activities - a “tourist tax”) but the hospitality industry has always fought hard against it (unsurprisingly). It will be nice to have some facts.
    Been on the cards for a very long time. The DT is just doing its usual SNPBaaad and LabourBaad but the Edinburgh council is a Labour minority (very minor) with Tory (and LD) support, though (as is halfheartedly admitted by the piece) the Tories are trying to pretend it's nothing to do with them.

    Housing is indeed an issue here. The uncontrolled rise of Airbnb in Edinburgh has been at the expense of the locals - space lost and increase in general shittiness. Having it taxable imposes an additional control function and an ability to prosecute deviant landlords, besides the licensing system, I suppose.
    I would argue the tax should go on short term rentals, at a relatively high rate, and not on hotels, which are already taxed and are relatively efficient users of space. Or the visitor tax can be offset by other business taxes already paid.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,686

    Nobody was richer than Crassus either.

    You'll find it's spelt "Creases" on here....

    (You had to be here, back in the day...)
    Crassus was just a wealthy Roman

    The saying “as rich as Croesus” come from the king of Lydia
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,322
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Trump stuff on Denmark is insane.

    It's the sort of thing that would probably compel us to back Denmark, together with other European allies, and split NATO.

    I presume he couldn't take any military action without the approval of Congress. Whilst Republican controlled one would hope not all Senators would vote for such insanity.

    Can UK forces operate independently or is our technology dependent on US approval?
    They can. But that's probably time limited because of our reliance on ongoing US. technical support for quite a list if it ?
    The UK can do a lot autonomously, but one thing it definitely isn't going to do is fight (and lose badly to) the USA over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the North Atlantic.
    We've autonomously fought and won wars over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the South Atlantic before.
    Penguin shit surely? Puffins are Northern hemisphere.

    I don't think we could do the same armada now, and certainly not against the USA.

    If Trump does attack Greenland it would surely be the end of NATO. Putin couldn't ask more of Trump if he tried.
    We wouldn't be doing it alone.

    It would split NATO and very serious consequences for the USA too, which would need to be mitigated by a future administration.
    We simply don't have the military capability to fight America over Greenland even if we wanted to do so, and neither does the rest of NATO. This isn't the war of 1812.

    We could evict the 10 USAF bases here, but that would be even more terminal for the Transatlantic alliance.

    Another Biden failure. He should have made a deal over Greenland to avoid this situation.

    Now Trump has publicly threatened military action against Denmark and NATO is in danger of becoming meaningless.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,322

    Nobody was richer than Crassus either.

    You'll find it's spelt "Creases" on here....

    (You had to be here, back in the day...)
    Crassus was just a wealthy Roman

    The saying “as rich as Croesus” come from the king of Lydia
    He was the world's richest geezer
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,708
    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The Trump stuff on Denmark is insane.

    It's the sort of thing that would probably compel us to back Denmark, together with other European allies, and split NATO.

    I presume he couldn't take any military action without the approval of Congress. Whilst Republican controlled one would hope not all Senators would vote for such insanity.

    It wouldn't need military action. The population of Greenland is tiny and they have no armed forces of their own to speak of. DJT could just send CIA SADs/PMCs into Nuuk to round up the government and take over the airport. They've already got forces in Greenland if necessay. The janitorial team from Thule AFB could probably do it.

    Then it's over. Europe aren't going to fight the USA over it. We'd all feel a bit shit about it for a bit then get over it.
    No, we wouldn't get over it.

    It would have very serious repercussions.
    You're both right I think. Trump is picking off Greenland because he believes it's an easy win for him. Much the same calculation as Putin's invasions of Ukraine. But the repercussions will be serious. The World depends on states behaving properly, particularly the USA.
    The world feels like it is getting more dangerous, with thinly disguised or not disguised at all wars of conquest happening or being threatened in a way that feels odd after WW2.
    The coincidence that this is happening when the generation who saved humanity's bacon then have finally shuffled off is very suggestive of something ominous.

    Same for top people who either don't get why that salute is taboo, or don't care.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,471
    edited January 25

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Trump stuff on Denmark is insane.

    It's the sort of thing that would probably compel us to back Denmark, together with other European allies, and split NATO.

    I presume he couldn't take any military action without the approval of Congress. Whilst Republican controlled one would hope not all Senators would vote for such insanity.

    Can UK forces operate independently or is our technology dependent on US approval?
    They can. But that's probably time limited because of our reliance on ongoing US. technical support for quite a list if it ?
    The UK can do a lot autonomously, but one thing it definitely isn't going to do is fight (and lose badly to) the USA over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the North Atlantic.
    We've autonomously fought and won wars over a load of rocks covered in snow and puffin shit in the South Atlantic before.
    Correction - penguin shit. There are no puffins in the southern hemisphere. And the only penguins in the northern hemisphere are on the Galapogos Islands, and even then, only by a few miles.
    FAKE NEWS ALERT. You can get 14 penguins for £1.75 in Asda.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fI0Fa66h6Qo

    (It's n-n-n-n-nineteen.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,903
    Nigelb said:

    Morning PB'ers.

    Stunningly hagiographic series of interviews on Trump, on Today, at the moment. The supposedly "left-wing BBC", is nowhere to be seen.

    BBC coverage of Trump has been pretty fanboy for a while.
    The BBC cares about clicks and viewers, he draws both.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,471
    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Controversial tourist tax approved in Edinburgh despite warnings

    A five per cent charge will be levied on hotels, B&Bs, campsites and accommodation let through websites such as Airbnb"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/01/24/edinburgh-tourist-tax-hotels-bed-breakfast-airbnb-overnight/

    That will be an interesting test case

    It’s always struck me as a very logical tax (possibly to fund local cultural activities - a “tourist tax”) but the hospitality industry has always fought hard against it (unsurprisingly). It will be nice to have some facts.
    Been on the cards for a very long time. The DT is just doing its usual SNPBaaad and LabourBaad but the Edinburgh council is a Labour minority (very minor) with Tory (and LD) support, though (as is halfheartedly admitted by the piece) the Tories are trying to pretend it's nothing to do with them.

    Housing is indeed an issue here. The uncontrolled rise of Airbnb in Edinburgh has been at the expense of the locals - space lost and increase in general shittiness. Having it taxable imposes an additional control function and an ability to prosecute deviant landlords, besides the licensing system, I suppose.
    Can't the SNP spend the Airbnb tax on Campervans for the homeless?

    (Runs away to collect spectacles.)
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 162
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Controversial tourist tax approved in Edinburgh despite warnings

    A five per cent charge will be levied on hotels, B&Bs, campsites and accommodation let through websites such as Airbnb"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/01/24/edinburgh-tourist-tax-hotels-bed-breakfast-airbnb-overnight/

    That will be an interesting test case

    It’s always struck me as a very logical tax (possibly to fund local cultural activities - a “tourist tax”) but the hospitality industry has always fought hard against it (unsurprisingly). It will be nice to have some facts.
    Been on the cards for a very long time. The DT is just doing its usual SNPBaaad and LabourBaad but the Edinburgh council is a Labour minority (very minor) with Tory (and LD) support, though (as is halfheartedly admitted by the piece) the Tories are trying to pretend it's nothing to do with them.

    Housing is indeed an issue here. The uncontrolled rise of Airbnb in Edinburgh has been at the expense of the locals - space lost and increase in general shittiness. Having it taxable imposes an additional control function and an ability to prosecute deviant landlords, besides the licensing system, I suppose.
    Edinburgh is right to do this. Otherwise it goes the way of Lisbon and Barcelona, cities where the old quarters are a simulacrum of the old city populated only by hen and stag parties in AirBnB.

    Lisbon, this time last year, was a nightmare. Cruise ships disgorging the walking dead at 8:00 am into a series of tuk-tuks which then block the narrow streets and hills of the centre. Same issue when touring the southern Italian coast later in the year - more of the walking dead. No wonder Venice is having a rethink.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 162
    GIN1138 said:

    Good morning PB

    Sounds like Trump is preparing to annex Greenland and potentially go to war with Denmark?

    Wonder if this is where the first cracks in the Trump administration will appear. Will the generals follow the instructions of the Supreme Leader or will they resist and be replaced.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,471
    edited January 25
    Trump has started dismissing Independent Inspectors responsible for checks and balances in Federal Agencies. These are like internal ombudsmen, guardians of probity.

    Dismissing them at midnight, immediately by email, at the weekend.

    The law requires Congress to be given 30 days notice before such action.

    Most of these were appointed by Trump in his first term.

    IMO he is removing people who could be a check on his nefarious, quite possibly criminal, manipulations. Expect incoming lawsuits on these next week, as he is ultra vires.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/01/24/trump-fire-inspectors-general-federal-agencies/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,883

    HYUFD said:

    'Vice President JD Vance proclaimed he wants “more babies in the United States of America” on Friday in his debut speech, echoing President Trump’s promise to fight back against unrestrained abortion access.

    “Our society has failed to recognize the obligation that one generation has to another is a core part of living in a society to begin with. So let me say, very simply, I want more babies in the United States of America,” Vance declared.

    Vance added that the US had “failed a generation” by celebrating abortion access and not aiding young couples with the tools they need to support a family — saying the country had embraced a “culture of abortion on demand.”

    “We need a culture that celebrates life at all stages, one that recognizes and truly believes that the benchmark of national success is not a GDP number or our stock market, but whether people feel that they can raise thriving and healthy families, in our country,” Vance said.'

    https://nypost.com/2025/01/24/us-news/march-for-life-jd-vance-says-he-wants-more-babies-in-the-us/


    It’s the last paragraph of your post that is way more important than the headline - and at the heart of why the resurgant right is doing so well
    Growth is a metric used by leaders to impress other leaders but is not necessarily helpful to the people (net household income is a better one). So Vance's last para is correct
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,883
    MattW said:

    Trump has started dismissing Independent Inspectors responsible for checks and balances in Federal Agencies. These are like internal ombudsmen, guardians of probity.

    Dismissing them at midnight, immediately by email, at the weekend.

    The law requires Congress to be given 30 days notice before such action.

    Most of these were appointed by Trump in his first term.

    IMO he is removing people who could be a check on his nefarious, quite possibly criminal, manipulations. Expect incoming lawsuits on these next week, as he is ultra vires.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/01/24/trump-fire-inspectors-general-federal-agencies/

    (mutters "gangster state" under breath)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,355
    edited January 25

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    MattW said:

    Cicero said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    You know, it's one thing offering a fair price and having a negotiation with Denmark over Greenland (assuming the Greenlanders agree).

    It's another thing entirely when you threaten retaliatory tariffs if fellow NATO member Denmark does not accede to your request.

    Chump, or his successor, is going to end up with a Europe armed to the teeth shunning him as a threatening rival still grounded in the 18C.

    I'd say that Greenland needs to be looking at a closer alliance with Canada.

    Mr Trump really has his eye on the North-West passage, and ultimately the USA will say "our Navy is coming through - what're you gonna do?", ignoring international law to which they pay no regard anyway if it cuts across self-interest. And short of naval mines installed by Canada, they will not stop.

    That's the USA for you.
    With Tech valuations in mid air, and red ink all over Musk's hubris Empire- I'd say the US is riding for one hell of a fall. I am meeting my financial team on Tuesday and will be looking to drastically reduce exposure to the US.

    Pride goeth before destruction and a haughty spirit before a fall.
    Like everyone else, I really can't call any of it !

    It's a random walk.
    As far as Musk is concerned- it really isn't. He has managed his businesses badly, Tesla is under significant pressure and TwiX is probably worth less than half what he paid for it. Hoing to Mars is pretty much the definition of hubris. Individual business- starlink, possibly, have value, but the overall assets of the "first trillionaire" look like a house if cards. Meta to is is also extremely vulnerable. The enshitiffication of Facebook is more and more obvious- Reddit feeds are just cheap, repetitive filler.

    At current valuations a tech rout is not only quite likely- it's all but inevitable.
    Are you richer than Elon Musk ? From memory youre in private equity ?
    At this point nobody is richer than Musk.
    So, what's your point?
    My point is nobody is richer than Elon Musk so who are you to give him advice ? When youve got to the point where you have overtaken him then you'll have a point of your own.
    And Keir Starmer is the Prime Minister, Alan, so who are you to question any of his decisions?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 162
    On-topic talking about clouds ....

    It appears one person close to Trump would be very upset if the Tik-Tok ban was to happen. Seems that Larry Ellison's Oracle provides some the servers for Tik-Tok and has warned he would lose business if it were to close. However an enforced fire sale price to Oracle would be compensation for the support he has given Trump in the past.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvge68ymej3o

    Putin claims to be a student of history and models himself on Peter the Great. Trump hasn't gone as far back as he has alighted on the US era or Robber Barons during the so-called 'gilded age'.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robber_baron_(industrialist)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,355
    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    Trump has started dismissing Independent Inspectors responsible for checks and balances in Federal Agencies. These are like internal ombudsmen, guardians of probity.

    Dismissing them at midnight, immediately by email, at the weekend.

    The law requires Congress to be given 30 days notice before such action.

    Most of these were appointed by Trump in his first term.

    IMO he is removing people who could be a check on his nefarious, quite possibly criminal, manipulations. Expect incoming lawsuits on these next week, as he is ultra vires.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/01/24/trump-fire-inspectors-general-federal-agencies/

    (mutters "gangster state" under breath)
    Because if you say it aloud you'll be dealt with.

    "Are you now, or have you ever been, anything short of head over heels in love with Donald J Trump?"
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,883
    Battlebus said:

    On-topic talking about clouds ....

    It appears one person close to Trump would be very upset if the Tik-Tok ban was to happen. Seems that Larry Ellison's Oracle provides some the servers for Tik-Tok and has warned he would lose business if it were to close. However an enforced fire sale price to Oracle would be compensation for the support he has given Trump in the past.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvge68ymej3o

    Putin claims to be a student of history and models himself on Peter the Great. Trump hasn't gone as far back as he has alighted on the US era or Robber Barons during the so-called 'gilded age'.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robber_baron_(industrialist)

    Indeed. A new spurt in technology is a "golden age", when everybody exploits it in a free-for-all. Then eventually those who became rich use their power to pull up the ladder and deny it to the common folk: this is termed a "gilded age". It happened in the 19th century with the railroads, it's happening in the 21st century with the internet and electric cars.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,243
    kinabalu said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    Trump has started dismissing Independent Inspectors responsible for checks and balances in Federal Agencies. These are like internal ombudsmen, guardians of probity.

    Dismissing them at midnight, immediately by email, at the weekend.

    The law requires Congress to be given 30 days notice before such action.

    Most of these were appointed by Trump in his first term.

    IMO he is removing people who could be a check on his nefarious, quite possibly criminal, manipulations. Expect incoming lawsuits on these next week, as he is ultra vires.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/01/24/trump-fire-inspectors-general-federal-agencies/

    (mutters "gangster state" under breath)
    Because if you say it aloud you'll be dealt with.

    "Are you now, or have you ever been, anything short of head over heels in love with Donald J Trump?"
    Oh, it's a scythe...!
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