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Let’s talk about clouds – politicalbetting.com
Let’s talk about clouds – politicalbetting.com
How UK politics has changed in a year: the British public's ideal Prime Minister in March 2024 versus January 2025Source: @JLPartnersPolls in The Sunday Times pic.twitter.com/bBkHf6qWmH
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(YES, I'M SHOUTING AT CLOUDS.)
On topic: who is Lewis on the 2024 cloud?
but the killer watched a violent video just before his killing spree *on X*
and Musk is refusing to take it down despite numerous official requests from UK & Australian authorities
https://x.com/PickardJE/status/1882778716394405978
So says TSE, and lawyers never lie.
Tbilisi City Hall said that the validators have been temporarily turned off. During this period, transportation fare will be free...
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1882755140236587348P
This is afaicr, normal practice at my hospital.
Severn Trent to raise dividends as water bills rise by 47%
The water company told investors payouts would increase by the CPIH inflation rate after it was allowed to increase bills
Severn Trent has told its shareholders that they can expect an annual increase in dividends at the the Bank of England’s preferred rate of inflation after recently winning one of the biggest increases in customer bills in the country.
The water company, the second largest in the country behind Thames Water, supplying 8 million people, accepted a five-year funding settlement with Ofwat on Friday.
The regional water monopoly said it would accept a deal that will result in annual bills in the region increasing by 47 per cent between now and spring 2030 to £583 from the current average of £398. Annual bills will be even higher when accounting for inflation.
During the next five years of price increases, Severn Trent is forecasting that one in six households in its region will have to have financial support to pay their bills, a programme in which the rest of the local population pay a surcharge to make others’ bills affordable.
https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/severn-trent-to-raise-dividends-as-water-bills-rise-by-47-percent-ntg5j2bbb
I'd be tearing my hair out about these word clouds if I was a Tory activist - they are HM loyal opposition but just not part of the conversation about who would be a good national leader.
Kemi may not be prominent at all but her party still outpolls her as Labour outpoll Starmer while Reform underperform Farage.
So I expect the current trend of all 3 main parties in the 20-30% range to continue and a hung parliament, indeed it would probably need Reform to win around 30% with the Tories and Labour both on 20-25% for Reform to even win most seats let alone a majority
The folks obsessively posting about egg prices for the past few years have gone strangely quiet just as egg prices hit an all-time high.
https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/1882520828417323404
He then went on about the amount of grooming of young girls by men of Pakistani origin.
When he'd gone my remaining friend and I shook our heads sadly over hm.
(With the possible exception of completely overturning the constitution.)
Support For Leaving World Health Organization:
Oppose: 50%
Support: 49%
AtlasIntel / Jan 23, 2025
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1882610324530176036
It does match the trend nonetheless that while pensioners are generally conservative they also are most likely to vote against the far right and ultra nationalist right. Macron and his party polled best with pensioners against Le Pen and her party for instance, Le Pen polled best with 50-59 year olds. In Germany the Union still do best with pensioners but the AfD best with 35-44 year olds. Trump could only tie Harris with pensioners despite winning the popular vote this time, with Trump polling best with 45-65 year olds and here too the Tories do best with pensioners while Reform poll best with 55-64 year olds, like Trump Farage does especially well with middle aged men.
(Edited - we are walking the edge of allowed conversation, so I removed this.)
I am afraid I do think the right in this country will be largely swallowed by this ‘movement’, for want of a better term. Whether it takes the Tory Party with it or the Tory Party becomes the face of it - that is still an open question.
At the moment I think it looks very unlikely any party will be able to form a majority government next time. It would be a brave person to predict the fragmentation of our politics will have resolved itself in time for the next GE.
So the Tories disappearing doesn't necessarily help the right overall and wouldn't make a Reform majority much closer
They may have to go shit or bust - Prime Minister or nothing. Which didn't play so well when last tried by them...
Or maybe a coalition with Farage.
You can see their problem.
That's why I'm fairly confident that the Labour vote share would be higher with Farage as the main challenger than Badenoch. But they would be much less efficient, with lefty votes piling up in the outraged cities and lots of Reform/Labour marginals in the north.
Anyway, I haven't actually looked up the terms of the brilliant Ukraine deal that Trump made happen, all I need to know is that he finished the war within 24 hours like he promised.
(Oh, not THAT topic!)
PB is rather like this. We have some who are not of the herd, but most are rather similar in views/beliefs. We are lucky that there are some outspoken outliers, otherwise we would be even more of an echo chamber than
BSkyBBlueSky or whatever its called.I'm not surprised at your neighbours attitudes. Lots of people think as they do. And currently they are flocking to Reform.
I think that's a fair rule of thumb for president Donald J Trump.
Currently 1.1 million for Farage
Next most popular is Zara Sultana on 450 000 I think. Corbyn has 167 000
Trump has 15 million, Kamala 9.2 million, AOC 2.1 million
Electric cars in UK last as long as petrol and diesel vehicles, study finds
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/24/electric-cars-lifespans-reach-those-of-petrol-and-diesel-vehicles-in-uk
Still, with RFK, the CDC and WHO all watching the situation, we have nothing to worry about.
5% of '24 Lab voters would now vote Reform
15% Con
6% LD
87% Reform
The only age group the Conservatives are beating Reform in is 65+.
By default in that case, Labour will continue to have more seats than any other party and can form a government from there, even if it no longer has a majority.
Con + Ref could well top L + LD + G, but the last three decades have honed the Centre Left vote to a level where it is highly efficient, which is simply not true on the Right.
That will change: but it'll take a couple of electoral cycles.
It'd called the voters.
They've moved to the Right and have stayed on the Right.
Amusingly the Beeb has barely noticed no one is watching their shite anymore. They could have been World leaders but instead chose to go down the branded player route. Well sorry if IPlayer doesn't work when I am abroad I watch GBNews, a company that wants me to watch their product and doesn't charge me £169 a year for not looking at Gary Linaker.
The big grievance is the WFP. So it looks as if they all want a government that doles out more spending. Complaints too that the Minimum wage increase is affecting wage differentials. They were all seeing new trainee staff starting at or close to their pay, despite being required to train and supervise them.
https://bsky.app/profile/dylandifford.bsky.social/post/3lcsdqpnuy22k
It's that stack of Lab 2024 - Don't Know now voters that is critical for GE2028/9. And I doubt that most of them know what they will do yet.
Tories and Reform are first and second with over 65s, the LDs are third and Labour fourth with pensioners and Reform and the Tories are tied with over 50s with Labour third
Tories are ahead of Reform, just, with 18-24s but Reform are ahead of the Tories with 25-49s
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/VotingIntention_MRP_250120.pdf
"Politicians claim countries must be run like households, and that’s completely wrong." Richard J Murphy, YouTube, 23Jan2025, 13 mins, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FZmhyKkFdU
54% Labour (which is dreadful)
5% Reform
4% Conservative
7% LD
6% Green
21% are don't know or would not vote. That's the crucial chunk; with Badenoch they could go Tory. With Farage...
“I’m probably about the only politician I know of who is actually willing to stand up and say that he’s pro-immigration.”
On the latest YouGov it's 7% of '24 Lab voters and 17% of '24 Tory voters, but crucially, Reform get 30% of C2DE voters compared with only 23% for Labour.
https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/VotingIntention_MRP_250120.pdf
These are not free market Libertarians.