REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.
Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake
The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.
People like #AxelRudakubana are put on suicide watch. He wants an easy way out. To him the death penalty is preferable to spending his whole life in a tiny brick box, being brutally bullied by others in jail. For that reason, I believe he must be kept alive to serve his sentence
Just to clarify, a minimum of 52 years in prison is worse than a death sentence. No hope, no one to talk to, in fear of being attacked, he will never have a family, spend every day in a small cell. Death would be an escape.
Well, if the one and only Jim Wells, with his 139 followers, says it, then I guess it must be true. You don't half link to some tripe.
The comments are just to illustrate an argument which is quite prevalent among ordinary people to justify their opposition to the death penalty.
The people in the criminal justice system to whom @TSE refers are more likely to use arguments based on personal vanity: we can't have the death penalty because it would make us as bad as them (where them can refer either to the criminals themselves or more often to foreigners who aren't as enlightened as us and still execute people).
See this is where you’re talking utter bollocks, again.
My friends in the CPS and defence teams would tell you because of serious number of miscarriages in the past, juries would be reluctant to convict where there was a chance of the death penalty.
You’d have dreadlocked juries and guilty people getting away with is a major concern.
REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.
Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake
The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.
People like #AxelRudakubana are put on suicide watch. He wants an easy way out. To him the death penalty is preferable to spending his whole life in a tiny brick box, being brutally bullied by others in jail. For that reason, I believe he must be kept alive to serve his sentence
Just to clarify, a minimum of 52 years in prison is worse than a death sentence. No hope, no one to talk to, in fear of being attacked, he will never have a family, spend every day in a small cell. Death would be an escape.
Well, if the one and only Jim Wells, with his 139 followers, says it, then I guess it must be true. You don't half link to some tripe.
The comments are just to illustrate an argument which is quite prevalent among ordinary people to justify their opposition to the death penalty.
The people in the criminal justice system to whom @TSE refers are more likely to use arguments based on personal vanity: we can't have the death penalty because it would make us as bad as them (where them can refer either to the criminals themselves or more often to foreigners who aren't as enlightened as us and still execute people).
See this is where you’re talking utter bollocks, again.
My friends in the CPS and defence teams would tell you because of serious number of miscarriages in the past, juries would be reluctant to convict where there was a chance of the death penalty.
You’d have dreadlocked juries and guilty people getting away with is a major concern.
I think its fair that past miscarriages of justice mitigate against the death penalty, but its not the reason for every opponent. Take the current example, I don't think their can be any doubt that he did it- apprehended at the scene etc. So objections on the basis of 'he could be innocent' fall away and we are left with objections such as ' the state shouldn't have the power to execute people' and 'life in prison is a better punishment'.
Personally I'd be happy if this person was executed but I understand not everyone will agree.
There's also the practical reasons. The grisly theatre around the death penalty. The appeals and "sitting on death row". The debate around methods. Should we poison or shoot or strangle or fry? The people having to do it. The witnessing and reporting. The unhealthy fascination it invokes and often martyrdom too. The last words. What did he say? The last meal. What did he eat? All of that stuff. It's not a thing we want. Does nobody any good. It's just wrong. That's why it's long gone here and in almost all developed countries.
REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.
Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake
The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.
People like #AxelRudakubana are put on suicide watch. He wants an easy way out. To him the death penalty is preferable to spending his whole life in a tiny brick box, being brutally bullied by others in jail. For that reason, I believe he must be kept alive to serve his sentence
Just to clarify, a minimum of 52 years in prison is worse than a death sentence. No hope, no one to talk to, in fear of being attacked, he will never have a family, spend every day in a small cell. Death would be an escape.
Well, if the one and only Jim Wells, with his 139 followers, says it, then I guess it must be true. You don't half link to some tripe.
The comments are just to illustrate an argument which is quite prevalent among ordinary people to justify their opposition to the death penalty.
The people in the criminal justice system to whom @TSE refers are more likely to use arguments based on personal vanity: we can't have the death penalty because it would make us as bad as them (where them can refer either to the criminals themselves or more often to foreigners who aren't as enlightened as us and still execute people).
See this is where you’re talking utter bollocks, again.
My friends in the CPS and defence teams would tell you because of serious number of miscarriages in the past, juries would be reluctant to convict where there was a chance of the death penalty.
You’d have dreadlocked juries and guilty people getting away with is a major concern.
I think its fair that past miscarriages of justice mitigate against the death penalty, but its not the reason for every opponent. Take the current example, I don't think their can be any doubt that he did it- apprehended at the scene etc. So objections on the basis of 'he could be innocent' fall away and we are left with objections such as ' the state shouldn't have the power to execute people' and 'life in prison is a better punishment'.
Personally I'd be happy if this person was executed but I understand not everyone will agree.
That is not quite the point TSE made. The problem is not what politicians or lawyers think about the reliability of the criminal justice system, but that *juries* became reluctant to convict for murder.
Anyway, thank God Trump was elected and the war in Ukraine has been over for 3 days.
Well the war in Gaza has been over for 3 days at least
Israel will be resuming hostilities pretty soon, I fear. The idea their security is best served by further oppressing and colonising seems to have taken hold.
Netanyahu's idea that the best way to delay his fraud trial further is best served by further oppressing and colonising also remains strong.
I think too that is the problem in the Russo-Ukranian war. The war only stops when Putin stops, and unless it is total subjugation of Ukraine with Zelensky replaced by a puppet government, then it looks like Putin has failed. A lot more Russians and Ukranians have to die to keep him unchallenged.
I am very interested to see the outcome of Trump's hardballing (at least publicly) of Putin. It will be quite hard to view 'making the deal' as anything other than the capitulation of one 'strong man' to another. On the other hand it gives Russia a much needed off-ramp to the invasion, and possibly with some of its ill-gotten gains.
Ever since the Russian army was successfully repulsed from Kyiv, the probable outcome has always been the partition of Ukraine. Russia is too large, and Putin is too invested in the war, for Ukraine to win outright; Ukraine is too large to be successfully overrun and occupied.
This ends either with a ceasefire and a de facto annexation by Russia of the territory it possesses, with both sides continuing to claim territory on the enemy side of the line of control; or in a bargain whereby Ukraine cedes the conquests outright, in exchange for freedom for the surviving four-fifths of the country to shift decisively into the western bloc and join NATO. My instinct is that it'll be the former outcome but I wouldn't bet real money on it.
The discussion on World at One was that it was likely to just continue grinding on with more casualties and Trump pressurising Ukraine to conscript more young men as a condition for continuing support. For Ukraine it is existential, they have to defend themselves or submit to what they know will be a horrible occupation, for Russia, Putin simply does not care about the Russian casualties, particularly now a large proportion are North Korean.
OT - The result of the second battle of Bannockburn is a SLAB minority running Stirling Council with 4 out of 23 members, backed by 8 Conservative. Time for a 'puppet in the pocket' meme?
The word cloud shows one fundamental thing. The public being polled wants solutions to a number of well known problems but does not want to pay for them, and furthermore wants them a bit more quickly than is feasible anyway. Farage and Reform are the only outfit offering this (bogusly of course) who have not already recently been tried out. Just one year ago Labour and Starmer were in that pole position.
Went out for a drink last night with a couple of neighbours. Bit younger than me, but not that much. One of them said that he'd been watching a lot of GB news "because he was fed up with the bias shown by the BBC and wanted the truth." He then went on about the amount of grooming of young girls by men of Pakistani origin. When he'd gone my remaining friend and I shook our heads sadly over hm.
I work at Uni and I am surrounded by people who mostly vote Labour or Lib Dem. Hard to find a Tory (or at least someone who would admit to it). It leads people who work here to believe that the whole country thinks as they do and so the shock at Brexit, and when Corbyn lost in 2019 etc is profound. The lack of engagement with 'normal people' feeds into this.
PB is rather like this. We have some who are not of the herd, but most are rather similar in views/beliefs. We are lucky that there are some outspoken outliers, otherwise we would be even more of an echo chamber than BSkyBBlueSky or whatever its called.
I'm not surprised at your neighbours attitudes. Lots of people think as they do. And currently they are flocking to Reform.
I would say this site skews towards professional, managerial, AB Class individuals. In the time I’ve been on this site I think the prevailing wind when it comes to views and debate has shifted very much in line with how that class appears to have shifted (quite significantly leftwards on cultural topics, a slight nudge leftwards on economics).
Let's shift it further left economically
"Politicians claim countries must be run like households, and that’s completely wrong." Richard J Murphy, YouTube, 23Jan2025, 13 mins, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FZmhyKkFdU
I wonder if Murph has a 103% of annual income credit card balance .
The word cloud shows one fundamental thing. The public being polled wants solutions to a number of well known problems but does not want to pay for them, and furthermore wants them a bit more quickly than is feasible anyway. Farage and Reform are the only outfit offering this (bogusly of course) who have not already recently been tried out. Just one year ago Labour and Starmer were in that pole position.
Went out for a drink last night with a couple of neighbours. Bit younger than me, but not that much. One of them said that he'd been watching a lot of GB news "because he was fed up with the bias shown by the BBC and wanted the truth." He then went on about the amount of grooming of young girls by men of Pakistani origin. When he'd gone my remaining friend and I shook our heads sadly over hm.
I work at Uni and I am surrounded by people who mostly vote Labour or Lib Dem. Hard to find a Tory (or at least someone who would admit to it). It leads people who work here to believe that the whole country thinks as they do and so the shock at Brexit, and when Corbyn lost in 2019 etc is profound. The lack of engagement with 'normal people' feeds into this.
PB is rather like this. We have some who are not of the herd, but most are rather similar in views/beliefs. We are lucky that there are some outspoken outliers, otherwise we would be even more of an echo chamber than BSkyBBlueSky or whatever its called.
I'm not surprised at your neighbours attitudes. Lots of people think as they do. And currently they are flocking to Reform.
It concerns me that Sir Keir Starmer seems a little quick to label the general public 'far right' when they are really only not definitely left. If ordinary people start to believe that 'people like them' are actually far right, when a real Far Right arises, they'll think 'Ah so these are my representatives'. I don't consider that a good outcome.
REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.
Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake
I keep saying on here that Farage is against capital punishment.
Anyway, thank God Trump was elected and the war in Ukraine has been over for 3 days.
Well the war in Gaza has been over for 3 days at least
Israel will be resuming hostilities pretty soon, I fear. The idea their security is best served by further oppressing and colonising seems to have taken hold.
Netanyahu's idea that the best way to delay his fraud trial further is best served by further oppressing and colonising also remains strong.
I think too that is the problem in the Russo-Ukranian war. The war only stops when Putin stops, and unless it is total subjugation of Ukraine with Zelensky replaced by a puppet government, then it looks like Putin has failed. A lot more Russians and Ukranians have to die to keep him unchallenged.
I am very interested to see the outcome of Trump's hardballing (at least publicly) of Putin. It will be quite hard to view 'making the deal' as anything other than the capitulation of one 'strong man' to another. On the other hand it gives Russia a much needed off-ramp to the invasion, and possibly with some of its ill-gotten gains.
Ever since the Russian army was successfully repulsed from Kyiv, the probable outcome has always been the partition of Ukraine. Russia is too large, and Putin is too invested in the war, for Ukraine to win outright; Ukraine is too large to be successfully overrun and occupied.
This ends either with a ceasefire and a de facto annexation by Russia of the territory it possesses, with both sides continuing to claim territory on the enemy side of the line of control; or in a bargain whereby Ukraine cedes the conquests outright, in exchange for freedom for the surviving four-fifths of the country to shift decisively into the western bloc and join NATO. My instinct is that it'll be the former outcome but I wouldn't bet real money on it.
I agree, and agree on the former being more probable.
Whilstever Ukraine occupies an area of Russia, it is going to require Ukraine getting NATO membership before that gets returned.
REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.
Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake
The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.
Can’t say that I’ve noticed the more enthusiastic supporters of capital punishment wanting a more humane option. They crave the state killing criminals, preferably unpleasantly, as the salve to their vengeful outrage.
I am not an enthusiastic supporter of it, but any favourable feeling I have about it stems from what I perceive to be the burden on the state of having to pay more than Eton fees per year to host the very worst killers indefinitely. I suspect that's why a lot of people support assisted dying too, though few would admit it.
I'd rather they went to Africa to break rocks in an inexpensive venue.
Lab/Con 45%. SPLORG 55%. A record low (in recent times anyway) for Lab/Con. Lab/Con was 76%+ in 2019 GE.
That is hilarious
How can Labour go from a landslide win in July to 3rd on just 22% in six months
Mind you they have Starmer and Reeves so maybe not such a surprise
The Government is making its life harder with its mistakes, but it was always going to become very unpopular. They either fail to pay for important stuff, in which case all the people who receive or are in favour of the stuff hate them, or they jack up taxes to pay for the stuff, in which case those who are stung for the taxes hate them.
The peculiar anti-genius of this lot is to find the sweet spot where they are just tight-fisted enough with spending, and deploy precisely the correct combination of tax rises and withdrawal of perks, to upset everyone and please no-one. It's a masterclass in taking the unpopular decisions without providing any tangible benefits.
Anyway, thank God Trump was elected and the war in Ukraine has been over for 3 days.
Well the war in Gaza has been over for 3 days at least
Israel will be resuming hostilities pretty soon, I fear. The idea their security is best served by further oppressing and colonising seems to have taken hold.
Netanyahu's idea that the best way to delay his fraud trial further is best served by further oppressing and colonising also remains strong.
I think too that is the problem in the Russo-Ukranian war. The war only stops when Putin stops, and unless it is total subjugation of Ukraine with Zelensky replaced by a puppet government, then it looks like Putin has failed. A lot more Russians and Ukranians have to die to keep him unchallenged.
I am very interested to see the outcome of Trump's hardballing (at least publicly) of Putin. It will be quite hard to view 'making the deal' as anything other than the capitulation of one 'strong man' to another. On the other hand it gives Russia a much needed off-ramp to the invasion, and possibly with some of its ill-gotten gains.
Ever since the Russian army was successfully repulsed from Kyiv, the probable outcome has always been the partition of Ukraine. Russia is too large, and Putin is too invested in the war, for Ukraine to win outright; Ukraine is too large to be successfully overrun and occupied.
This ends either with a ceasefire and a de facto annexation by Russia of the territory it possesses, with both sides continuing to claim territory on the enemy side of the line of control; or in a bargain whereby Ukraine cedes the conquests outright, in exchange for freedom for the surviving four-fifths of the country to shift decisively into the western bloc and join NATO. My instinct is that it'll be the former outcome but I wouldn't bet real money on it.
I agree, and agree on the former being more probable.
Whilstever Ukraine occupies an area of Russia, it is going to require Ukraine getting NATO membership before that gets returned.
REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.
Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake
The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.
Can’t say that I’ve noticed the more enthusiastic supporters of capital punishment wanting a more humane option. They crave the state killing criminals, preferably unpleasantly, as the salve to their vengeful outrage.
I am not an enthusiastic supporter of it, but any favourable feeling I have about it stems from what I perceive to be the burden on the state of having to pay more than Eton fees per year to host the very worst killers indefinitely. I suspect that's why a lot of people support assisted dying too, though few would admit it.
I'd rather they went to Africa to break rocks in an inexpensive venue.
Trump’s ‘ice maiden’ freezes Elon Musk out of West Wing
Susie Wiles, the president’s chief of staff, has denied the billionaire touted as ‘the real vice-president’ a permanent office in the heart of the White House
There was another sign of Wiles’s determination to put some distance between Musk and Trump in the executive order setting up Doge, which stated that its chief administrator must report to her.
Amusing if true but not new. This plot was used right at the start of Yes Minister when Hacker's political adviser, Frank Weisel, was frozen out by Sir Humphrey, denied both physical closeness to the minister as well as policy input, and revisited in Yes Prime Minister when Hacker's new adviser blocked Sir Humphrey's access. It is something we read about every time a new Prime Minister rearranges office space in Downing Street.
It will be interesting to see if DOGE itself survives both Elon Musk and earlier Vivek Ramaswamy being frozen out of Trump's inner circle.
I wonder if we'll get crossover between the Lib Dems and Labour at some point this year. Third could be the best Labour can hope for.
I have found Labour's polling surprisingly sticky. It has been tracking inexorably down, but not in the same way as Starmer's approval rating. I wouldn't know why that would be. Could be something in the re-allocation of don't knows? I know our own view is skewed by our media diet, and I am a right wing media consumer, but I don't think there's much of a Guardian/Mirror/The Rest is Politics alternative narrative bubble where everyone thinks it's going brilliantly well.
I am expecting Labour's losses to continue, and for them to fall behind Reform and the Tories in most polls. I think Ref, Cons, Lab in that order will solidify.
I was worried (politically) about the forthcoming Crime and Justice bill having some good popular measures in it. But judging from the recent bollocks about kitchen knives from Amazon, it'll just be more snooping on the law-abiding. It's just not in Labour to turn this around - their instincts oppose everything that they need to do.
Yes, I agree that Labour's vote share is holding up quite well. Also the big shift is to DK/WNV. I also think this is mostly down to Starmer and Reeves having to managed after the Tory scorched earth policy of the last few years, coupled with major negative charisma. These people are recoverable, as are some who have gone to Green and even Reform.
The obvious thing for Labour is for Starmer to retire in 2028, being replaced by a new more charismatic leader, giveaway budget in October 28 and a May election in 2029.
REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.
Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake
The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.
Can’t say that I’ve noticed the more enthusiastic supporters of capital punishment wanting a more humane option. They crave the state killing criminals, preferably unpleasantly, as the salve to their vengeful outrage.
I am not an enthusiastic supporter of it, but any favourable feeling I have about it stems from what I perceive to be the burden on the state of having to pay more than Eton fees per year to host the very worst killers indefinitely. I suspect that's why a lot of people support assisted dying too, though few would admit it.
I'd rather they went to Africa to break rocks in an inexpensive venue.
Again the US experience is that executing killers is more costly than incarcerating them for life. That might not apply here, but it seems a pretty poor reason to support capital punishment.
Anyway, thank God Trump was elected and the war in Ukraine has been over for 3 days.
Well the war in Gaza has been over for 3 days at least
Israel will be resuming hostilities pretty soon, I fear. The idea their security is best served by further oppressing and colonising seems to have taken hold.
Netanyahu's idea that the best way to delay his fraud trial further is best served by further oppressing and colonising also remains strong.
I think too that is the problem in the Russo-Ukranian war. The war only stops when Putin stops, and unless it is total subjugation of Ukraine with Zelensky replaced by a puppet government, then it looks like Putin has failed. A lot more Russians and Ukranians have to die to keep him unchallenged.
I am very interested to see the outcome of Trump's hardballing (at least publicly) of Putin. It will be quite hard to view 'making the deal' as anything other than the capitulation of one 'strong man' to another. On the other hand it gives Russia a much needed off-ramp to the invasion, and possibly with some of its ill-gotten gains.
Ever since the Russian army was successfully repulsed from Kyiv, the probable outcome has always been the partition of Ukraine. Russia is too large, and Putin is too invested in the war, for Ukraine to win outright; Ukraine is too large to be successfully overrun and occupied.
This ends either with a ceasefire and a de facto annexation by Russia of the territory it possesses, with both sides continuing to claim territory on the enemy side of the line of control; or in a bargain whereby Ukraine cedes the conquests outright, in exchange for freedom for the surviving four-fifths of the country to shift decisively into the western bloc and join NATO. My instinct is that it'll be the former outcome but I wouldn't bet real money on it.
I agree, and agree on the former being more probable.
Whilstever Ukraine occupies an area of Russia, it is going to require Ukraine getting NATO membership before that gets returned.
Anyway, thank God Trump was elected and the war in Ukraine has been over for 3 days.
Well the war in Gaza has been over for 3 days at least
Israel will be resuming hostilities pretty soon, I fear. The idea their security is best served by further oppressing and colonising seems to have taken hold.
Netanyahu's idea that the best way to delay his fraud trial further is best served by further oppressing and colonising also remains strong.
I think too that is the problem in the Russo-Ukranian war. The war only stops when Putin stops, and unless it is total subjugation of Ukraine with Zelensky replaced by a puppet government, then it looks like Putin has failed. A lot more Russians and Ukranians have to die to keep him unchallenged.
I am very interested to see the outcome of Trump's hardballing (at least publicly) of Putin. It will be quite hard to view 'making the deal' as anything other than the capitulation of one 'strong man' to another. On the other hand it gives Russia a much needed off-ramp to the invasion, and possibly with some of its ill-gotten gains.
Ever since the Russian army was successfully repulsed from Kyiv, the probable outcome has always been the partition of Ukraine. Russia is too large, and Putin is too invested in the war, for Ukraine to win outright; Ukraine is too large to be successfully overrun and occupied.
This ends either with a ceasefire and a de facto annexation by Russia of the territory it possesses, with both sides continuing to claim territory on the enemy side of the line of control; or in a bargain whereby Ukraine cedes the conquests outright, in exchange for freedom for the surviving four-fifths of the country to shift decisively into the western bloc and join NATO. My instinct is that it'll be the former outcome but I wouldn't bet real money on it.
I agree, and agree on the former being more probable.
Whilstever Ukraine occupies an area of Russia, it is going to require Ukraine getting NATO membership before that gets returned.
Trump has also said he'd veto membership.
Even if he didn't, could you see the French or Germans going for it?
REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.
Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake
The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.
Can’t say that I’ve noticed the more enthusiastic supporters of capital punishment wanting a more humane option. They crave the state killing criminals, preferably unpleasantly, as the salve to their vengeful outrage.
I am not an enthusiastic supporter of it, but any favourable feeling I have about it stems from what I perceive to be the burden on the state of having to pay more than Eton fees per year to host the very worst killers indefinitely. I suspect that's why a lot of people support assisted dying too, though few would admit it.
I'd rather they went to Africa to break rocks in an inexpensive venue.
Again the US experience is that executing killers is more costly than incarcerating them for life. That might not apply here, but it seems a pretty poor reason to support capital punishment.
The American system is very different to the British, which was one appeal and done.
I am not supporting it by the way. Though I am genuinely in favour of transportation, and I would consider reintroduction of the death penalty for high treason.
I wonder if we'll get crossover between the Lib Dems and Labour at some point this year. Third could be the best Labour can hope for.
I have found Labour's polling surprisingly sticky. It has been tracking inexorably down, but not in the same way as Starmer's approval rating. I wouldn't know why that would be. Could be something in the re-allocation of don't knows? I know our own view is skewed by our media diet, and I am a right wing media consumer, but I don't think there's much of a Guardian/Mirror/The Rest is Politics alternative narrative bubble where everyone thinks it's going brilliantly well.
I am expecting Labour's losses to continue, and for them to fall behind Reform and the Tories in most polls. I think Ref, Cons, Lab in that order will solidify.
I was worried (politically) about the forthcoming Crime and Justice bill having some good popular measures in it. But judging from the recent bollocks about kitchen knives from Amazon, it'll just be more snooping on the law-abiding. It's just not in Labour to turn this around - their instincts oppose everything that they need to do.
Yes, I agree that Labour's vote share is holding up quite well. Also the big shift is to DK/WNV. I also think this is mostly down to Starmer and Reeves having to managed after the Tory scorched earth policy of the last few years, coupled with major negative charisma. These people are recoverable, as are some who have gone to Green and even Reform.
The obvious thing for Labour is for Starmer to retire in 2028, being replaced by a new more charismatic leader, giveaway budget in October 28 and a May election in 2029.
I think he'll do that if he's become at that point a clear drag on the Labour vote.
The project to develop the aircraft began in 2010, with the aim of replacing Turkey’s aging F-16 fleet and boosting Turkey’s autonomy, self-dependency, and overall military and national power. The urgency to develop this aircraft increased after Turkey was removed from the F-35 program in 2019. The KAAN made its maiden flight in February 2024.
Riyadh has expressed interest in acquiring F-35 fighter jets since 2017; however, the United States has not committed to the sale, and the situation has been prolonged. Riyadh is likely also feeling unsure about its ability to secure an F-35 deal considering the experiences of its neighbors. For example, while the Trump administration signed a multi-billion-dollar deal with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for F-35s in 2021 (as a reward for Abu Dhabi’s normalization with Israel in 2020), the UAE suspended talks over concerns with the Biden administration’s terms, citing “sovereign operational restrictions” and “technical requirements,” among other reasons. While some reports indicated that the UAE hopes to revive the deal with the incoming Trump administration, a UAE official said that Abu Dhabi does not expect to resume talks...
..As conveyed in Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 for the kingdom, Riyadh aims not only to purchase weapons but also to produce them, pursuing the necessary know-how and technology transfer to build its own defense industry. Regarding fighter jets, Saudi Arabia requested to join the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a collaborative effort among Britain, Italy, and Japan to develop a sixth-generation stealth fighter jet to replace the Eurofighter Typhoon and the Mitsubishi F-2. The new jet is expected to be airborne by 2040.
While the United Kingdom and Italy support Saudi Arabia’s request to join GCAP, Japan has reportedly firmly opposed Riyadh’s membership in the project..
Riyadh’s extensive ties with China and amicable relations with Russia could explain why Japan would oppose Saudi Arabia’s inclusion. Accepting Saudi Arabia as a partner could raise questions regarding who has the authority to sell or block the sale of fighter jets to certain nations (including, for example, China and Russia)...
Of course Trump might now decide to sell F35s to his mate MBS, which would upend all these calculations. He's just as likely not, though.
We're bloody close to a tipping point where the Conservatives shrink back to LD levels, and Reform gets into the mid 30s.
That supposition rather depends on where Reform's ceiling of support is to be found, and specifically whether or not the Conservatives' remaining backers are prepared to switch sides, of course.
The word cloud shows one fundamental thing. The public being polled wants solutions to a number of well known problems but does not want to pay for them, and furthermore wants them a bit more quickly than is feasible anyway. Farage and Reform are the only outfit offering this (bogusly of course) who have not already recently been tried out. Just one year ago Labour and Starmer were in that pole position.
Went out for a drink last night with a couple of neighbours. Bit younger than me, but not that much. One of them said that he'd been watching a lot of GB news "because he was fed up with the bias shown by the BBC and wanted the truth." He then went on about the amount of grooming of young girls by men of Pakistani origin. When he'd gone my remaining friend and I shook our heads sadly over hm.
I work at Uni and I am surrounded by people who mostly vote Labour or Lib Dem. Hard to find a Tory (or at least someone who would admit to it). It leads people who work here to believe that the whole country thinks as they do and so the shock at Brexit, and when Corbyn lost in 2019 etc is profound. The lack of engagement with 'normal people' feeds into this.
PB is rather like this. We have some who are not of the herd, but most are rather similar in views/beliefs. We are lucky that there are some outspoken outliers, otherwise we would be even more of an echo chamber than BSkyBBlueSky or whatever its called.
I'm not surprised at your neighbours attitudes. Lots of people think as they do. And currently they are flocking to Reform.
I would say this site skews towards professional, managerial, AB Class individuals. In the time I’ve been on this site I think the prevailing wind when it comes to views and debate has shifted very much in line with how that class appears to have shifted (quite significantly leftwards on cultural topics, a slight nudge leftwards on economics).
Let's shift it further left economically
"Politicians claim countries must be run like households, and that’s completely wrong." Richard J Murphy, YouTube, 23Jan2025, 13 mins, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FZmhyKkFdU
I wonder if Murph has a 103% of annual income credit card balance .
It's longterm debt more akin to a mortgage and banks are more than happy to lend on a 400% of income basis. I think it would be a safe bet that all the homeowners on PB bought their first home with a mortgage that was >100% of their annual income.
the Administration is briefing trump will force a deal, but Europe will have to pay for both policing the border, and the reconstruction of Ukraine.
At which point, we should be determining the conditions of the deal, not him.
I'm not seeing the credible Trump leverage on Putin to force any deal that isn't a clear win for Russia,
No, indeed.
Putin still wants terms which are almost certainly unacceptable to both Europe and Ukraine.
Trump openly doesn't want skin in the game, and seems to be relying solely on threats and his belief in his persuasiveness. Were he genuinely to be willing to increase US military assistance to Ukraine, that might work - but he's clearly signalling a desire to reduce or even eliminate such aid.
That is a map to cut out and keep. And perhaps someone will turn it into a patchwork quilt. And, finally, the map is now not quite impossible, and looks like the pattern of a country which is both peaceful and ungovernable.
The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.
For the good of Reform then, someone should try to get Nigel to read the stats on smoking chopping years off life expectancy.
The project to develop the aircraft began in 2010, with the aim of replacing Turkey’s aging F-16 fleet and boosting Turkey’s autonomy, self-dependency, and overall military and national power. The urgency to develop this aircraft increased after Turkey was removed from the F-35 program in 2019. The KAAN made its maiden flight in February 2024.
Riyadh has expressed interest in acquiring F-35 fighter jets since 2017; however, the United States has not committed to the sale, and the situation has been prolonged. Riyadh is likely also feeling unsure about its ability to secure an F-35 deal considering the experiences of its neighbors. For example, while the Trump administration signed a multi-billion-dollar deal with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for F-35s in 2021 (as a reward for Abu Dhabi’s normalization with Israel in 2020), the UAE suspended talks over concerns with the Biden administration’s terms, citing “sovereign operational restrictions” and “technical requirements,” among other reasons. While some reports indicated that the UAE hopes to revive the deal with the incoming Trump administration, a UAE official said that Abu Dhabi does not expect to resume talks...
..As conveyed in Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 for the kingdom, Riyadh aims not only to purchase weapons but also to produce them, pursuing the necessary know-how and technology transfer to build its own defense industry. Regarding fighter jets, Saudi Arabia requested to join the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a collaborative effort among Britain, Italy, and Japan to develop a sixth-generation stealth fighter jet to replace the Eurofighter Typhoon and the Mitsubishi F-2. The new jet is expected to be airborne by 2040.
While the United Kingdom and Italy support Saudi Arabia’s request to join GCAP, Japan has reportedly firmly opposed Riyadh’s membership in the project..
Riyadh’s extensive ties with China and amicable relations with Russia could explain why Japan would oppose Saudi Arabia’s inclusion. Accepting Saudi Arabia as a partner could raise questions regarding who has the authority to sell or block the sale of fighter jets to certain nations (including, for example, China and Russia)...
Of course Trump might now decide to sell F35s to his mate MBS, which would upend all these calculations. He's just as likely not, though.
Typical short-sighted British politics on strategic industries.
Why is the government potentially allowing Turkey a military advantage throughout the Near and Middle East.
This was started in 2010, when Erdogan was considered more of an ally, and hasn't been reviewed since?
Okay, for those with a purposefully very short attention span, here's the "deal" that Russia had for Ukraine before the February 24 invasion:
- Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign independent nation (because it's "not a real country") - Ukraine's popularly elected leadership and the national government fucks off to exile in the West - Russia installs Putin's kin, Viktor Medvedchuk, as a collaborationist dictatorial puppet - A very large part of the population who was not lucky to flee abroad (patriotic citizens, cultural figures, social activists, potential disloyal elements, and resistance leaders) is subject to "filtration measures" and "re-education" as part of "de-Nazification" (concentration camps, torture chambers, mass graves) because being a Ukrainian in Ukraine and defying foreign occupation is "Nazi". - Ukraine completely dismantles its national defense forces and accepts Russia's military occupation and - Russian occupation authorities break Ukraine's ties with the West and make Ukraine part of the Russian-controlled "union state" next to occupied Belarus - Ukraine largely gives up on its Ukrainian identity, nationhood, language, culture, way of life, and political liberties (because that's "Nazi") and turns into a Russia-style totalitarian ward isolated from the outer world - Russia gets full control of Ukraine's resources (most importantly, food production and human resources) and Ukraine's strategic geographic position for new rounds of its imperial expansion further into Europe (a.k.a. "the acknowledgment of Russia's vital security interests")
Oh, by the way, for those with very short memory spans, the entire West spent over a year literally begging Putin for a "deal" that could stop him and prevent the war. .. https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1882742430115512831
REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.
Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake
I could never stand the Hang-em-and-flog-em types.
For a start, what's the point of flogging people *after* you've hung 'em?
It's this kind of basic failure in process engineering that makes this country second rate.... {old man starts shouting at clouds...}
Oliver Cromwell was hanged and decapitated more than two years after he died.
REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.
Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake
I could never stand the Hang-em-and-flog-em types.
For a start, what's the point of flogging people *after* you've hung 'em?
It's this kind of basic failure in process engineering that makes this country second rate.... {old man starts shouting at clouds...}
Oliver Cromwell was hanged and decapitated more than two years after he died.
Labour are going to use the possible Runcorn by-election, as a testing ground for the stances to be taken to see off Reform.
If I were them, I'd be trying to make hay out of Nigel's ambivalent attitude to Russia.
And drawing attention to Reform's "Thatcherite" economic policies, which I don't believe are known or would appeal to many w-class Reform voters.
We'll see but I think trying to make a by-election into a referendum on Farage would be a mistake for them. Not because of Farage's popularity, but because it's not what voters would care about.
REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.
Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake
I could never stand the Hang-em-and-flog-em types.
For a start, what's the point of flogging people *after* you've hung 'em?
It's this kind of basic failure in process engineering that makes this country second rate.... {old man starts shouting at clouds...}
Oliver Cromwell was hanged and decapitated more than two years after he died.
REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.
Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake
I could never stand the Hang-em-and-flog-em types.
For a start, what's the point of flogging people *after* you've hung 'em?
It's this kind of basic failure in process engineering that makes this country second rate.... {old man starts shouting at clouds...}
Oliver Cromwell was hanged and decapitated more than two years after he died.
But he never did it again. Capital punishment works.
We're bloody close to a tipping point where the Conservatives shrink back to LD levels, and Reform gets into the mid 30s.
That supposition rather depends on where Reform's ceiling of support is to be found, and specifically whether or not the Conservatives' remaining backers are prepared to switch sides, of course.
If Reform under Farage can keep their (hard right brexity) base and at the same time become the preferred option for the generally pissed off and not particularly informed or political ... if they can do that AND the economy continues to disappoint or worse then I'd say they are favourites for largest party at the next election.
We're bloody close to a tipping point where the Conservatives shrink back to LD levels, and Reform gets into the mid 30s.
That supposition rather depends on where Reform's ceiling of support is to be found, and specifically whether or not the Conservatives' remaining backers are prepared to switch sides, of course.
If Reform under Farage can keep their (hard right brexity) base and at the same time become the preferred option for the generally pissed off and not particularly informed or political ... if they can do that AND the economy continues to disappoint or worse then I'd say they are favourites for largest party at the next election.
The problem from a betting viewpoint is that at points along that journey it will make sense for them to takeover/join the Tories and may end up being called the Conservative Party or something new rather than Reform. But yes, Farage et al should be favourites for biggest party.
REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.
Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake
I could never stand the Hang-em-and-flog-em types.
For a start, what's the point of flogging people *after* you've hung 'em?
It's this kind of basic failure in process engineering that makes this country second rate.... {old man starts shouting at clouds...}
Oliver Cromwell was hanged and decapitated more than two years after he died.
But he never did it again. Capital punishment works.
ETA scooped by kjh.
OTOH, Charles I re-emerged as Charles II, which raises doubts over efficacy.
REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.
Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake
I could never stand the Hang-em-and-flog-em types.
For a start, what's the point of flogging people *after* you've hung 'em?
It's this kind of basic failure in process engineering that makes this country second rate.... {old man starts shouting at clouds...}
Oliver Cromwell was hanged and decapitated more than two years after he died.
But he never did it again. Capital punishment works.
ETA scooped by kjh.
Actually not a trivial point. Dozens of people have been killed by murderers after they were released from prison.
Just to add on the Bae-Turkey deal, that is something thar has received virtually no coverage at all, and not reviewing it since 2010 in the light of Erdogan"s different orientation, is pure strategic madness.
Wonders never cease, when it comes to British neglect of strategic-industrial issues, since Thatcherisn, and both at home, and abroad.
We're bloody close to a tipping point where the Conservatives shrink back to LD levels, and Reform gets into the mid 30s.
That supposition rather depends on where Reform's ceiling of support is to be found, and specifically whether or not the Conservatives' remaining backers are prepared to switch sides, of course.
If Reform under Farage can keep their (hard right brexity) base and at the same time become the preferred option for the generally pissed off and not particularly informed or political ... if they can do that AND the economy continues to disappoint or worse then I'd say they are favourites for largest party at the next election.
The problem from a betting viewpoint is that at points along that journey it will make sense for them to takeover/join the Tories and may end up being called the Conservative Party or something new rather than Reform. But yes, Farage et al should be favourites for biggest party.
In all of this, Labour must be dismayed and wondering just how badly they got it wrong
If one has a particular agenda, particularly someone who is comfortable saluting seig heil style, the tragedy of Southport provides an opportunity to promote the notion of immigrant or Islamic terrorism, despite the perpetrator being a Catholic (I believe) born in Cardiff to parents who survived the Rwandan genocide.
There is absolutely no consideration given to the violent murder of three little girls so long as a political point can be scored. Farage, Tice, Anderson and now Musk have cynically milked this for all it is worth.
Badenoch's response was excellent until she added the completely obtuse and random caveat that we needed to be careful who we let into the country.
We're bloody close to a tipping point where the Conservatives shrink back to LD levels, and Reform gets into the mid 30s.
That supposition rather depends on where Reform's ceiling of support is to be found, and specifically whether or not the Conservatives' remaining backers are prepared to switch sides, of course.
If Reform under Farage can keep their (hard right brexity) base and at the same time become the preferred option for the generally pissed off and not particularly informed or political ... if they can do that AND the economy continues to disappoint or worse then I'd say they are favourites for largest party at the next election.
The problem from a betting viewpoint is that at points along that journey it will make sense for them to takeover/join the Tories and may end up being called the Conservative Party or something new rather than Reform. But yes, Farage et al should be favourites for biggest party.
In all of this, Labour must be dismayed and wondering just how badly they got it wrong
I don't think so to be honest. Whoever was in power for this period would have known they would have taken a hit in the polls. Hence Sunak calling an early election. Had Farage somehow won last time, the refukkers would be fourth in the polls by now. They just have to hope the global economy is in much better shape by 2028, and who knows maybe it will be. Just pinning their hopes on Trump's stewardship......
I can't help but think that folk are getting a bit over-excited about opinion polling, and extrapolations therefrom, over four years out from our next GE.
That is a map to cut out and keep. And perhaps someone will turn it into a patchwork quilt. And, finally, the map is now not quite impossible, and looks like the pattern of a country which is both peaceful and ungovernable.
I look forward to the inevitability of a Lab/Con coalition. The steam that will rise from the ears of the party faithful on both sides would make it all worthwhile.
We're bloody close to a tipping point where the Conservatives shrink back to LD levels, and Reform gets into the mid 30s.
Why would Tory voters switch to Reform? On that poll they are second to Reform on voteshare NOT Labour and would get rid of Starmer's government anyway
I can't help but think that folk are getting a bit over-excited about opinion polling, and extrapolations therefrom, over four years out from our next GE.
REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.
Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake
The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.
People like #AxelRudakubana are put on suicide watch. He wants an easy way out. To him the death penalty is preferable to spending his whole life in a tiny brick box, being brutally bullied by others in jail. For that reason, I believe he must be kept alive to serve his sentence
Just to clarify, a minimum of 52 years in prison is worse than a death sentence. No hope, no one to talk to, in fear of being attacked, he will never have a family, spend every day in a small cell. Death would be an escape.
Well, if the one and only Jim Wells, with his 139 followers, says it, then I guess it must be true. You don't half link to some tripe.
The comments are just to illustrate an argument which is quite prevalent among ordinary people to justify their opposition to the death penalty.
The people in the criminal justice system to whom @TSE refers are more likely to use arguments based on personal vanity: we can't have the death penalty because it would make us as bad as them (where them can refer either to the criminals themselves or more often to foreigners who aren't as enlightened as us and still execute people).
See this is where you’re talking utter bollocks, again.
My friends in the CPS and defence teams would tell you because of serious number of miscarriages in the past, juries would be reluctant to convict where there was a chance of the death penalty.
You’d have dreadlocked juries and guilty people getting away with is a major concern.
That's the thing with the death penalty - very quickly you end up with cases where people are found innocent because their crime wasn't felt by one (or more) juror that the risk was too great. At the moment many jurors will require say a 80/90% confidence level before convicting, add the death penalty and that could shift the requirement to 95%+..
I can't help but think that folk are getting a bit over-excited about opinion polling, and extrapolations therefrom, over four years out from our next GE.
"Are you not entertained? Are you not entertained? Is this not why you are here?"
We're bloody close to a tipping point where the Conservatives shrink back to LD levels, and Reform gets into the mid 30s.
That supposition rather depends on where Reform's ceiling of support is to be found, and specifically whether or not the Conservatives' remaining backers are prepared to switch sides, of course.
If Reform under Farage can keep their (hard right brexity) base and at the same time become the preferred option for the generally pissed off and not particularly informed or political ... if they can do that AND the economy continues to disappoint or worse then I'd say they are favourites for largest party at the next election.
The problem from a betting viewpoint is that at points along that journey it will make sense for them to takeover/join the Tories and may end up being called the Conservative Party or something new rather than Reform. But yes, Farage et al should be favourites for biggest party.
In all of this, Labour must be dismayed and wondering just how badly they got it wrong
We are. We are utterly dismayed to be in power, sitting on a huge majority, with several years to deliver. We wish we were one of the other parties, in fact.
I can't help but think that folk are getting a bit over-excited about opinion polling, and extrapolations therefrom, over four years out from our next GE.
I would just say that that is complacency as once a party loses the country then it will struggle to regain popularity
REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.
Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake
The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.
Can’t say that I’ve noticed the more enthusiastic supporters of capital punishment wanting a more humane option. They crave the state killing criminals, preferably unpleasantly, as the salve to their vengeful outrage.
I am not an enthusiastic supporter of it, but any favourable feeling I have about it stems from what I perceive to be the burden on the state of having to pay more than Eton fees per year to host the very worst killers indefinitely. I suspect that's why a lot of people support assisted dying too, though few would admit it.
I'd rather they went to Africa to break rocks in an inexpensive venue.
Again the US experience is that executing killers is more costly than incarcerating them for life. That might not apply here, but it seems a pretty poor reason to support capital punishment.
I see the grandson of one of the 20 richest men in Wales was jailed for life today for murder of an old school friend and flatmate, showing culprits can be from all backgrounds
We're bloody close to a tipping point where the Conservatives shrink back to LD levels, and Reform gets into the mid 30s.
That supposition rather depends on where Reform's ceiling of support is to be found, and specifically whether or not the Conservatives' remaining backers are prepared to switch sides, of course.
If Reform under Farage can keep their (hard right brexity) base and at the same time become the preferred option for the generally pissed off and not particularly informed or political ... if they can do that AND the economy continues to disappoint or worse then I'd say they are favourites for largest party at the next election.
The problem from a betting viewpoint is that at points along that journey it will make sense for them to takeover/join the Tories and may end up being called the Conservative Party or something new rather than Reform. But yes, Farage et al should be favourites for biggest party.
Yes you'd be feeling a bit sick if you'd backed REF and then Farage executes a reverse takeover and becomes CON leader. I don't see that myself but it's something to consider.
REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.
Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake
The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.
People like #AxelRudakubana are put on suicide watch. He wants an easy way out. To him the death penalty is preferable to spending his whole life in a tiny brick box, being brutally bullied by others in jail. For that reason, I believe he must be kept alive to serve his sentence
Just to clarify, a minimum of 52 years in prison is worse than a death sentence. No hope, no one to talk to, in fear of being attacked, he will never have a family, spend every day in a small cell. Death would be an escape.
Well, if the one and only Jim Wells, with his 139 followers, says it, then I guess it must be true. You don't half link to some tripe.
The comments are just to illustrate an argument which is quite prevalent among ordinary people to justify their opposition to the death penalty.
The people in the criminal justice system to whom @TSE refers are more likely to use arguments based on personal vanity: we can't have the death penalty because it would make us as bad as them (where them can refer either to the criminals themselves or more often to foreigners who aren't as enlightened as us and still execute people).
See this is where you’re talking utter bollocks, again.
My friends in the CPS and defence teams would tell you because of serious number of miscarriages in the past, juries would be reluctant to convict where there was a chance of the death penalty.
You’d have dreadlocked juries and guilty people getting away with is a major concern.
That's the thing with the death penalty - very quickly you end up with cases where people are found innocent because their crime wasn't felt by one (or more) juror that the risk was too great. At the moment many jurors will require say a 80/90% confidence level before convicting, add the death penalty and that could shift the requirement to 95%+..
I just cannot support the reintroduction of the death penalty
The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.
You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
In many ways it is an action replay of France since about 2012. Remember France has a PR system which is less PR that FPTP by a long way. Anderson is much more telegenic that Farage. But the idea that it can be a commonplace on boards like this that the Right divided means more Marxism and it not be noticed either by the Conservatives or by Reform at a higher level is naive, and wrong.
Ummm:
I think the board agrees with you. The right will work out tactical voting, obviously, and it will become much more efficient over time.
But it is unlikely that the right wing vote in 2028 will be as efficient as the left wing one. For 2032/33, that is likely to be different.
Your analogy of France 2012 is a good one, albeit with the issue that we don't know how the world will pan out economically between now and 2032/33.
So... why do you think everyone disagrees with you?
Is a hypothetical party that wants to hang murderers and increase taxes on the rich to fund the NHS right or left wing?
Left wing.
Socially conservative populists
Taxing the rich is definitely left-wing. Hanging murderers is neither left nor right.
Trump’s ‘ice maiden’ freezes Elon Musk out of West Wing
Susie Wiles, the president’s chief of staff, has denied the billionaire touted as ‘the real vice-president’ a permanent office in the heart of the White House
There was another sign of Wiles’s determination to put some distance between Musk and Trump in the executive order setting up Doge, which stated that its chief administrator must report to her.
Wiles showed her loyalty to Trump when indicted in the classified documents case, and entirely coincidentally got a big pay rise from Trump around the same time...
I can't help but think that folk are getting a bit over-excited about opinion polling, and extrapolations therefrom, over four years out from our next GE.
I would just say that that is complacency as once a party loses the country then it will struggle to regain popularity
See Johnson, Truss and Sunak
I wonder - what do Johnson, Truss and Sunak have in common?
We're bloody close to a tipping point where the Conservatives shrink back to LD levels, and Reform gets into the mid 30s.
That supposition rather depends on where Reform's ceiling of support is to be found, and specifically whether or not the Conservatives' remaining backers are prepared to switch sides, of course.
If Reform under Farage can keep their (hard right brexity) base and at the same time become the preferred option for the generally pissed off and not particularly informed or political ... if they can do that AND the economy continues to disappoint or worse then I'd say they are favourites for largest party at the next election.
The problem from a betting viewpoint is that at points along that journey it will make sense for them to takeover/join the Tories and may end up being called the Conservative Party or something new rather than Reform. But yes, Farage et al should be favourites for biggest party.
Yes you'd be feeling a bit sick if you'd backed REF and then Farage executes a reverse takeover and becomes CON leader. I don't see that myself but it's something to consider.
If the Tories have around 150 seats, as even the FON poll shows, that won't happen, the Tories have a core still some of whom would go LD over Farage
REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.
Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake
The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.
People like #AxelRudakubana are put on suicide watch. He wants an easy way out. To him the death penalty is preferable to spending his whole life in a tiny brick box, being brutally bullied by others in jail. For that reason, I believe he must be kept alive to serve his sentence
Just to clarify, a minimum of 52 years in prison is worse than a death sentence. No hope, no one to talk to, in fear of being attacked, he will never have a family, spend every day in a small cell. Death would be an escape.
Well, if the one and only Jim Wells, with his 139 followers, says it, then I guess it must be true. You don't half link to some tripe.
The comments are just to illustrate an argument which is quite prevalent among ordinary people to justify their opposition to the death penalty.
The people in the criminal justice system to whom @TSE refers are more likely to use arguments based on personal vanity: we can't have the death penalty because it would make us as bad as them (where them can refer either to the criminals themselves or more often to foreigners who aren't as enlightened as us and still execute people).
See this is where you’re talking utter bollocks, again.
My friends in the CPS and defence teams would tell you because of serious number of miscarriages in the past, juries would be reluctant to convict where there was a chance of the death penalty.
You’d have dreadlocked juries and guilty people getting away with is a major concern.
That's the thing with the death penalty - very quickly you end up with cases where people are found innocent because their crime wasn't felt by one (or more) juror that the risk was too great. At the moment many jurors will require say a 80/90% confidence level before convicting, add the death penalty and that could shift the requirement to 95%+..
For me reasonable doubt is more like 1-2% than 10-20%. I'm probably right at the low end on that, but suspect you would get one or two thinking similarly on most juries.
That is a map to cut out and keep. And perhaps someone will turn it into a patchwork quilt. And, finally, the map is now not quite impossible, and looks like the pattern of a country which is both peaceful and ungovernable.
I look forward to the inevitability of a Lab/Con coalition. The steam that will rise from the ears of the party faithful on both sides would make it all worthwhile.
"No, I didn't say that they'll always be Tory scum to us. I said that I hope the Tories come to us."
I can't help but think that folk are getting a bit over-excited about opinion polling, and extrapolations therefrom, over four years out from our next GE.
I would just say that that is complacency as once a party loses the country then it will struggle to regain popularity
See Johnson, Truss and Sunak
I wonder - what do Johnson, Truss and Sunak have in common?
Starmer and Reeves are trying to outdo them in unpopularity ?
We're bloody close to a tipping point where the Conservatives shrink back to LD levels, and Reform gets into the mid 30s.
That supposition rather depends on where Reform's ceiling of support is to be found, and specifically whether or not the Conservatives' remaining backers are prepared to switch sides, of course.
If Reform under Farage can keep their (hard right brexity) base and at the same time become the preferred option for the generally pissed off and not particularly informed or political ... if they can do that AND the economy continues to disappoint or worse then I'd say they are favourites for largest party at the next election.
The problem from a betting viewpoint is that at points along that journey it will make sense for them to takeover/join the Tories and may end up being called the Conservative Party or something new rather than Reform. But yes, Farage et al should be favourites for biggest party.
In all of this, Labour must be dismayed and wondering just how badly they got it wrong
I don't think so to be honest. Whoever was in power for this period would have known they would have taken a hit in the polls. Hence Sunak calling an early election. Had Farage somehow won last time, the refukkers would be fourth in the polls by now. They just have to hope the global economy is in much better shape by 2028, and who knows maybe it will be. Just pinning their hopes on Trump's stewardship......
Four years before 2024, Boris was triumphant. Four years before 2019 and 2017 don't really work because elections came along so quickly. Four years before 2015, we were in EMICIPM times.
It really is too early to tell anything. Unless you are intent on just seeing what you want to see.
We're bloody close to a tipping point where the Conservatives shrink back to LD levels, and Reform gets into the mid 30s.
Why would Tory voters switch to Reform? On that poll they are second to Reform on voteshare NOT Labour and would get rid of Starmer's government anyway
I hate this government and would vote for either to eject it.
the Administration is briefing trump will force a deal, but Europe will have to pay for both policing the border, and the reconstruction of Ukraine.
At which point, we should be determining the conditions of the deal, not him.
I'm not seeing the credible Trump leverage on Putin to force any deal that isn't a clear win for Russia,
The biggest leverage, IMHO, is surging Russian inflation.
They don’t deserve a deal. They deserve, and need, total economic and domestic political collapse. As the world learned from Napoleon to Hitler to Hirohito, the only way you get rid of an imperialist death cult is by unconditional defeat.
Modern Russia - arguably Russia since the 15th century - is an imperialist Ponzi scheme. It exists only to expand and conquer.
That is a map to cut out and keep. And perhaps someone will turn it into a patchwork quilt. And, finally, the map is now not quite impossible, and looks like the pattern of a country which is both peaceful and ungovernable.
I look forward to the inevitability of a Lab/Con coalition. The steam that will rise from the ears of the party faithful on both sides would make it all worthwhile.
"No, I didn't say that they'll always be Tory scum to us. I said that I hope the Tories come to us."
Phasma: "You always were scum!" Finn: "REBEL scum!"
the Administration is briefing trump will force a deal, but Europe will have to pay for both policing the border, and the reconstruction of Ukraine.
At which point, we should be determining the conditions of the deal, not him.
I'm not seeing the credible Trump leverage on Putin to force any deal that isn't a clear win for Russia,
The biggest leverage, IMHO, is surging Russian inflation.
They don’t deserve a deal. They deserve, and need, total economic and domestic political collapse. As the world learned from Napoleon to Hitler to Hirohito, the only way you get rid of an imperialist death cult is by unconditional defeat.
Modern Russia - arguably Russia since the 15th century - is an imperialist Ponzi scheme. It exists only to expand and conquer.
A totally collapsed Russia would be very bad news for the West, in all sorts of ways.
You're usually a wiser and cooler head on PB, TimS.
the Administration is briefing trump will force a deal, but Europe will have to pay for both policing the border, and the reconstruction of Ukraine.
At which point, we should be determining the conditions of the deal, not him.
I'm not seeing the credible Trump leverage on Putin to force any deal that isn't a clear win for Russia,
The biggest leverage, IMHO, is surging Russian inflation.
They don’t deserve a deal. They deserve, and need, total economic and domestic political collapse. As the world learned from Napoleon to Hitler to Hirohito, the only way you get rid of an imperialist death cult is by unconditional defeat.
Modern Russia - arguably Russia since the 15th century - is an imperialist Ponzi scheme. It exists only to expand and conquer.
Indeed and the thing I find most weird are those utterly convinced Russia can't be defeated because they're "too big" to fail.
Was America too big to fail in Afghanistan? What the USSR too big to fail there too? Was America too big to fail in Vietnam? Were the Nazis too big to fail in WWII?
We should know by now that big can fail. The idea that anything is too big to fail doesn't work in business, economics, banking, politics or the military either.
The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.
You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
In many ways it is an action replay of France since about 2012. Remember France has a PR system which is less PR that FPTP by a long way. Anderson is much more telegenic that Farage. But the idea that it can be a commonplace on boards like this that the Right divided means more Marxism and it not be noticed either by the Conservatives or by Reform at a higher level is naive, and wrong.
Ummm:
I think the board agrees with you. The right will work out tactical voting, obviously, and it will become much more efficient over time.
But it is unlikely that the right wing vote in 2028 will be as efficient as the left wing one. For 2032/33, that is likely to be different.
Your analogy of France 2012 is a good one, albeit with the issue that we don't know how the world will pan out economically between now and 2032/33.
So... why do you think everyone disagrees with you?
Is a hypothetical party that wants to hang murderers and increase taxes on the rich to fund the NHS right or left wing?
Left wing.
Socially conservative populists
Taxing the rich is definitely left-wing. Hanging murderers is neither left nor right.
Trump’s ‘ice maiden’ freezes Elon Musk out of West Wing
Susie Wiles, the president’s chief of staff, has denied the billionaire touted as ‘the real vice-president’ a permanent office in the heart of the White House
There was another sign of Wiles’s determination to put some distance between Musk and Trump in the executive order setting up Doge, which stated that its chief administrator must report to her.
Wiles showed her loyalty to Trump when indicted in the classified documents case, and entirely coincidentally got a big pay rise from Trump around the same time...
The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.
You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
In many ways it is an action replay of France since about 2012. Remember France has a PR system which is less PR that FPTP by a long way. Anderson is much more telegenic that Farage. But the idea that it can be a commonplace on boards like this that the Right divided means more Marxism and it not be noticed either by the Conservatives or by Reform at a higher level is naive, and wrong.
Ummm:
I think the board agrees with you. The right will work out tactical voting, obviously, and it will become much more efficient over time.
But it is unlikely that the right wing vote in 2028 will be as efficient as the left wing one. For 2032/33, that is likely to be different.
Your analogy of France 2012 is a good one, albeit with the issue that we don't know how the world will pan out economically between now and 2032/33.
So... why do you think everyone disagrees with you?
Is a hypothetical party that wants to hang murderers and increase taxes on the rich to fund the NHS right or left wing?
Left wing.
Socially conservative populists
Taxing the rich is definitely left-wing. Hanging murderers is neither left nor right.
Trump’s ‘ice maiden’ freezes Elon Musk out of West Wing
Susie Wiles, the president’s chief of staff, has denied the billionaire touted as ‘the real vice-president’ a permanent office in the heart of the White House
There was another sign of Wiles’s determination to put some distance between Musk and Trump in the executive order setting up Doge, which stated that its chief administrator must report to her.
Wiles showed her loyalty to Trump when indicted in the classified documents case, and entirely coincidentally got a big pay rise from Trump around the same time...
the Administration is briefing trump will force a deal, but Europe will have to pay for both policing the border, and the reconstruction of Ukraine.
At which point, we should be determining the conditions of the deal, not him.
I'm not seeing the credible Trump leverage on Putin to force any deal that isn't a clear win for Russia,
The biggest leverage, IMHO, is surging Russian inflation.
They don’t deserve a deal. They deserve, and need, total economic and domestic political collapse. As the world learned from Napoleon to Hitler to Hirohito, the only way you get rid of an imperialist death cult is by unconditional defeat.
Modern Russia - arguably Russia since the 15th century - is an imperialist Ponzi scheme. It exists only to expand and conquer.
A totally collapsed Russia would be very bad news for the West, in all sorts of ways.
You're usually a wiser and cooler head on PB, TimS.
The existing Russia is very bad news, in all sorts of ways.
A totally collapsed Russia would be desirable and hopefully see the break-up and dismantling of Russia so that its regions no longer act as fodder for Moscow and can be developed individually instead.
Sometimes things need to fall apart before they can be rebuilt better.
I can't help but think that folk are getting a bit over-excited about opinion polling, and extrapolations therefrom, over four years out from our next GE.
I would just say that that is complacency as once a party loses the country then it will struggle to regain popularity
See Johnson, Truss and Sunak
I wonder - what do Johnson, Truss and Sunak have in common?
They inspired the Daily Star's greatest front page.
The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.
You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
In many ways it is an action replay of France since about 2012. Remember France has a PR system which is less PR that FPTP by a long way. Anderson is much more telegenic that Farage. But the idea that it can be a commonplace on boards like this that the Right divided means more Marxism and it not be noticed either by the Conservatives or by Reform at a higher level is naive, and wrong.
Ummm:
I think the board agrees with you. The right will work out tactical voting, obviously, and it will become much more efficient over time.
But it is unlikely that the right wing vote in 2028 will be as efficient as the left wing one. For 2032/33, that is likely to be different.
Your analogy of France 2012 is a good one, albeit with the issue that we don't know how the world will pan out economically between now and 2032/33.
So... why do you think everyone disagrees with you?
Is a hypothetical party that wants to hang murderers and increase taxes on the rich to fund the NHS right or left wing?
Left wing.
Socially conservative populists
Taxing the rich is definitely left-wing. Hanging murderers is neither left nor right.
Trump’s ‘ice maiden’ freezes Elon Musk out of West Wing
Susie Wiles, the president’s chief of staff, has denied the billionaire touted as ‘the real vice-president’ a permanent office in the heart of the White House
There was another sign of Wiles’s determination to put some distance between Musk and Trump in the executive order setting up Doge, which stated that its chief administrator must report to her.
Wiles showed her loyalty to Trump when indicted in the classified documents case, and entirely coincidentally got a big pay rise from Trump around the same time...
the Administration is briefing trump will force a deal, but Europe will have to pay for both policing the border, and the reconstruction of Ukraine.
At which point, we should be determining the conditions of the deal, not him.
I'm not seeing the credible Trump leverage on Putin to force any deal that isn't a clear win for Russia,
The biggest leverage, IMHO, is surging Russian inflation.
They don’t deserve a deal. They deserve, and need, total economic and domestic political collapse. As the world learned from Napoleon to Hitler to Hirohito, the only way you get rid of an imperialist death cult is by unconditional defeat.
Modern Russia - arguably Russia since the 15th century - is an imperialist Ponzi scheme. It exists only to expand and conquer.
Indeed and the thing I find most weird are those utterly convinced Russia can't be defeated because they're "too big" to fail.
Was America too big to fail in Afghanistan? What the USSR too big to fail there too? Was America too big to fail in Vietnam? Were the Nazis too big to fail in WWII?
We should know by now that big can fail. The idea that anything is too big to fail doesn't work in business, economics, banking, politics or the military either.
Comments
Zelenskyy needs to quickly call for Trump to be given the Nobel Peace Prize. Actually all the other Nobel prizes too.
How can Labour go from a landslide win in July to 3rd on just 22% in six months
Mind you they have Starmer and Reeves so maybe not such a surprise
For Ukraine it is existential, they have to defend themselves or submit to what they know will be a horrible occupation, for Russia, Putin simply does not care about the Russian casualties, particularly now a large proportion are North Korean.
Good evening, everyone.
I'd rather they went to Africa to break rocks in an inexpensive venue.
The peculiar anti-genius of this lot is to find the sweet spot where they are just tight-fisted enough with spending, and deploy precisely the correct combination of tax rises and withdrawal of perks, to upset everyone and please no-one. It's a masterclass in taking the unpopular decisions without providing any tangible benefits.
LAB: 179
REF: 170
CON: 165
LD: 72
SNP: 23
GRN: 7
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1882829324279279696?t=cW8f6qX4dFPZKhme8GtmhA&s=19
At which point, we should be determining the conditions of the deal, not him.
It will be interesting to see if DOGE itself survives both Elon Musk and earlier Vivek Ramaswamy being frozen out of Trump's inner circle.
The obvious thing for Labour is for Starmer to retire in 2028, being replaced by a new more charismatic leader, giveaway budget in October 28 and a May election in 2029.
That might not apply here, but it seems a pretty poor reason to support capital punishment.
I am not supporting it by the way. Though I am genuinely in favour of transportation, and I would consider reintroduction of the death penalty for high treason.
Why Saudi Arabia is so keen on the Turkish KAAN
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/saudi-arabia-turkey-kaan/
The KAAN is a Turkish fifth-generation, multi-role, stealth fighter aircraft developed by the Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) and BAE Systems, which is based in London.
The project to develop the aircraft began in 2010, with the aim of replacing Turkey’s aging F-16 fleet and boosting Turkey’s autonomy, self-dependency, and overall military and national power. The urgency to develop this aircraft increased after Turkey was removed from the F-35 program in 2019. The KAAN made its maiden flight in February 2024.
Riyadh has expressed interest in acquiring F-35 fighter jets since 2017; however, the United States has not committed to the sale, and the situation has been prolonged. Riyadh is likely also feeling unsure about its ability to secure an F-35 deal considering the experiences of its neighbors. For example, while the Trump administration signed a multi-billion-dollar deal with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for F-35s in 2021 (as a reward for Abu Dhabi’s normalization with Israel in 2020), the UAE suspended talks over concerns with the Biden administration’s terms, citing “sovereign operational restrictions” and “technical requirements,” among other reasons. While some reports indicated that the UAE hopes to revive the deal with the incoming Trump administration, a UAE official said that Abu Dhabi does not expect to resume talks...
..As conveyed in Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 for the kingdom, Riyadh aims not only to purchase weapons but also to produce them, pursuing the necessary know-how and technology transfer to build its own defense industry. Regarding fighter jets, Saudi Arabia requested to join the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a collaborative effort among Britain, Italy, and Japan to develop a sixth-generation stealth fighter jet to replace the Eurofighter Typhoon and the Mitsubishi F-2. The new jet is expected to be airborne by 2040.
While the United Kingdom and Italy support Saudi Arabia’s request to join GCAP, Japan has reportedly firmly opposed Riyadh’s membership in the project..
Riyadh’s extensive ties with China and amicable relations with Russia could explain why Japan would oppose Saudi Arabia’s inclusion. Accepting Saudi Arabia as a partner could raise questions regarding who has the authority to sell or block the sale of fighter jets to certain nations (including, for example, China and Russia)...
Of course Trump might now decide to sell F35s to his mate MBS, which would upend all these calculations.
He's just as likely not, though.
I think it would be a safe bet that all the homeowners on PB bought their first home with a mortgage that was >100% of their annual income.
Putin still wants terms which are almost certainly unacceptable to both Europe and Ukraine.
Trump openly doesn't want skin in the game, and seems to be relying solely on threats and his belief in his persuasiveness. Were he genuinely to be willing to increase US military assistance to Ukraine, that might work - but he's clearly signalling a desire to reduce or even eliminate such aid.
It's all somewhat illogical.
Last words of Daniel Dawson, hanged in 1812 for doping racehorses.
years off life expectancy.
He is currently only 60 btw.
Why is the government potentially allowing Turkey a military advantage throughout the Near and Middle East.
This was started in 2010, when Erdogan was considered more of an ally, and hasn't been reviewed since?
Lunacy, to put in mildly.
Okay, for those with a purposefully very short attention span, here's the "deal" that Russia had for Ukraine before the February 24 invasion:
- Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign independent nation (because it's "not a real country")
- Ukraine's popularly elected leadership and the national government fucks off to exile in the West
- Russia installs Putin's kin, Viktor Medvedchuk, as a collaborationist dictatorial puppet
- A very large part of the population who was not lucky to flee abroad (patriotic citizens, cultural figures, social activists, potential disloyal elements, and resistance leaders) is subject to "filtration measures" and "re-education" as part of "de-Nazification" (concentration camps, torture chambers, mass graves) because being a Ukrainian in Ukraine and defying foreign occupation is "Nazi".
- Ukraine completely dismantles its national defense forces and accepts Russia's military occupation and
- Russian occupation authorities break Ukraine's ties with the West and make Ukraine part of the Russian-controlled "union state" next to occupied Belarus
- Ukraine largely gives up on its Ukrainian identity, nationhood, language, culture, way of life, and political liberties (because that's "Nazi") and turns into a Russia-style totalitarian ward isolated from the outer world
- Russia gets full control of Ukraine's resources (most importantly, food production and human resources) and Ukraine's strategic geographic position for new rounds of its imperial expansion further into Europe (a.k.a. "the acknowledgment of Russia's vital security interests")
Oh, by the way, for those with very short memory spans, the entire West spent over a year literally begging Putin for a "deal" that could stop him and prevent the war.
..
https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1882742430115512831
If I were them, I'd be trying to make hay out of Nigel's ambivalent attitude to Russia.
And drawing attention to Reform's "Thatcherite" economic policies, which I don't believe are known or would appeal to many w-class Reform voters.
And news of @Richard_Tyndall , by the way ?
ETA scooped by kjh.
https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/wow-its-happened?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=1mnpci&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Wonders never cease, when it comes to British neglect of strategic-industrial issues, since Thatcherisn, and both at home, and abroad.
There is absolutely no consideration given to the violent murder of three little girls so long as a political point can be scored. Farage, Tice, Anderson and now Musk have cynically milked this for all it is worth.
Badenoch's response was excellent until she added the completely obtuse and random caveat that we needed to be careful who we let into the country.
However FON is still a bit of an outlier, most other pollsters still have a Labour minority government propped up by the LDs
We wish we were one of the other parties, in fact.
See Johnson, Truss and Sunak
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14321513/dylan-thomas-jailed-stabbing-friend-death-attack-pie-heir.html
Four years before 2019 and 2017 don't really work because elections came along so quickly.
Four years before 2015, we were in EMICIPM times.
It really is too early to tell anything. Unless you are intent on just seeing what you want to see.
Modern Russia - arguably Russia since the 15th century - is an imperialist Ponzi scheme. It exists only to expand and conquer.
https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1882844407428526284
Finn: "REBEL scum!"
You're usually a wiser and cooler head on PB, TimS.
Was America too big to fail in Afghanistan?
What the USSR too big to fail there too?
Was America too big to fail in Vietnam?
Were the Nazis too big to fail in WWII?
We should know by now that big can fail. The idea that anything is too big to fail doesn't work in business, economics, banking, politics or the military either.
A totally collapsed Russia would be desirable and hopefully see the break-up and dismantling of Russia so that its regions no longer act as fodder for Moscow and can be developed individually instead.
Sometimes things need to fall apart before they can be rebuilt better.
Trump: "I would love to see Canada be the 51st state. The Canadians citizens, if that happened ... they'd have much better health coverage."
In western nations at least most hard leftists are anti death penalty