Let’s talk about clouds – politicalbetting.com

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

Anyway, thank God Trump was elected and the war in Ukraine has been over for 3 days.

Well the war in Gaza has been over for 3 days at least

Israel will be resuming hostilities pretty soon, I fear. The idea their security is best served by further oppressing and colonising seems to have taken hold.

And what of the Hamas fighters jubilantly celebrating? That wasn't them celebrating peace.

HYUFD said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Labour will be a one-term government.

As a majority yes, though most polls have them staying in office in a hung parliament if they can get LD support

The problem is, a Labour Party booted out by the voters means the LibDems would be toxic if voting for them meant keeping Labour in power.

They may have to go shit or bust - Prime Minister or nothing. Which didn't play so well when last tried by them...

Or maybe a coalition with Farage.

You can see their problem.

The LDs would never touch Farage, they would rather deal with the Tories again than him, though yes a Labour minority government propped up by the LDs would not be a bad outcome for Tory candidates in LD held home counties seats certainly

I think it''l be quite a while before the LibDems do any sort of deal with the Tories.

On thread - regrettably to me, I think Eaglea is right - Reform will eclipse the Tories. Not Kemi's fault - she's slowly improving - nor Nigel's brilliance - which is very much up to a point. The fact (/wild assertion) is that Tory voters are more likely to hold their noses and vote Reform to get Labour out than Reform voters are to do the reverse.

turbotubbs said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

Anyway, thank God Trump was elected and the war in Ukraine has been over for 3 days.

Well the war in Gaza has been over for 3 days at least

Israel will be resuming hostilities pretty soon, I fear. The idea their security is best served by further oppressing and colonising seems to have taken hold.

And what of the Hamas fighters jubilantly celebrating? That wasn't them celebrating peace.

It certainly wasn't.

algarkirk said:

The word cloud shows one fundamental thing. The public being polled wants solutions to a number of well known problems but does not want to pay for them, and furthermore wants them a bit more quickly than is feasible anyway. Farage and Reform are the only outfit offering this (bogusly of course) who have not already recently been tried out. Just one year ago Labour and Starmer were in that pole position.

I would dispute the "more quickly than is feasible anyway"

This is the point where people who are intellectually invested in the Process State say things like "2 decades for planning a major river crossing is a sensible timescale".

The problem you have is that people travel. And see places where this isn't so.

The solution, obviously, is to reintroduce the Vagrancy Acts of Henry VIII. Any person discovered more than a few hours travel, on foot, who cannot explain a clear need to be away from home can be arrested as a vagrant. Exceptions for the NU10K & OG10K, of course.

kamski said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Labour will be a one-term government.

I think Labour will be at least a two term government, unless something changes. It's difficult for either Reform or the Conservatives to be largest party as long as they split the votes on the right. It's also difficult for the two parties to create a voting coalition before the election.

By default in that case, Labour will continue to have more seats than any other party and can form a government from there, even if it no longer has a majority.

That's possible, also possible that in 4 years time people will have forgotten how shit the tories were and the Conservatives will get a majority. They'd probably need to have a fresh untainted leader, and appeal to Reform voters on "controlling the border" - this might involve repudiating the last Conservative government letting in record numbers of immigrants. They've got the perfect fall guy to pin the blame on - Boris Johnson, who once said

“I’m probably about the only politician I know of who is actually willing to stand up and say that he’s pro-immigration.”

I think the Tories have a way to go to get the trust back, not unlike in 1997. Is there a Cameron figure out there to at least look like he connects and 'gets it'? Its unlikely to be Badenoch. But I also think that Labours massive majority is built on sand and could collapse as fast as it appeared.

viewcode said:

numbertwelve said:

turbotubbs said:

OldKingCole said:

algarkirk said:

The word cloud shows one fundamental thing. The public being polled wants solutions to a number of well known problems but does not want to pay for them, and furthermore wants them a bit more quickly than is feasible anyway. Farage and Reform are the only outfit offering this (bogusly of course) who have not already recently been tried out. Just one year ago Labour and Starmer were in that pole position.

Went out for a drink last night with a couple of neighbours. Bit younger than me, but not that much. One of them said that he'd been watching a lot of GB news "because he was fed up with the bias shown by the BBC and wanted the truth."
He then went on about the amount of grooming of young girls by men of Pakistani origin.
When he'd gone my remaining friend and I shook our heads sadly over hm.

I work at Uni and I am surrounded by people who mostly vote Labour or Lib Dem. Hard to find a Tory (or at least someone who would admit to it). It leads people who work here to believe that the whole country thinks as they do and so the shock at Brexit, and when Corbyn lost in 2019 etc is profound. The lack of engagement with 'normal people' feeds into this.

PB is rather like this. We have some who are not of the herd, but most are rather similar in views/beliefs. We are lucky that there are some outspoken outliers, otherwise we would be even more of an echo chamber than BSkyBBlueSky or whatever its called.

I'm not surprised at your neighbours attitudes. Lots of people think as they do. And currently they are flocking to Reform.

I would say this site skews towards professional, managerial, AB Class individuals. In the time I’ve been on this site I think the prevailing wind when it comes to views and debate has shifted very much in line with how that class appears to have shifted (quite significantly leftwards on cultural topics, a slight nudge leftwards on economics).

Let's shift it further left economically

"Politicians claim countries must be run like households, and that’s completely wrong." Richard J Murphy, YouTube, 23Jan2025, 13 mins, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FZmhyKkFdU

Richard Murphy is a complete loon. You might as well quote Piers Morgan. His economics are sub-Lizz Truss level.

Labour’s message seems to be that the UN prevents Rudakubana getting a whole life term.

https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1882766102733730191

Cookie said:

On thread - regrettably to me, I think Eaglea is right - Reform will eclipse the Tories. Not Kemi's fault - she's slowly improving - nor Nigel's brilliance - which is very much up to a point. The fact (/wild assertion) is that Tory voters are more likely to hold their noses and vote Reform to get Labour out than Reform voters are to do the reverse.

I think one also has to remember just how bad a state the Tory brand is in right now. I know all parties go through cycles, but they don’t all have a new, resurgent party trying to gobble up their voters and steal their colours at the same time.

I believe you are right about people holding their noses. I think if Reform are able to point to something concrete that suggests they have eclipsed the Tories on the right* then a lot will hold their nose and shift over.

*that concrete event, I would suggest, is probably the Scottish/Welsh/local elections next year and whether Reform can beat the Tories on vote share in all 3.

A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.

In many ways it is an action replay of France since about 2012. Remember France has a PR system which is less PR that FPTP by a long way. Anderson is much more telegenic that Farage. But the idea that it can be a commonplace on boards like this that the Right divided means more Marxism and it not be noticed either by the Conservatives or by Reform at a higher level is naive, and wrong.

Ummm:

I think the board agrees with you. The right will work out tactical voting, obviously, and it will become much more efficient over time.

But it is unlikely that the right wing vote in 2028 will be as efficient as the left wing one. For 2032/33, that is likely to be different.

Your analogy of France 2012 is a good one, albeit with the issue that we don't know how the world will pan out economically between now and 2032/33.

So... why do you think everyone disagrees with you?

OldKingCole said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

Anyway, thank God Trump was elected and the war in Ukraine has been over for 3 days.

Well the war in Gaza has been over for 3 days at least

Israel will be resuming hostilities pretty soon, I fear. The idea their security is best served by further oppressing and colonising seems to have taken hold.

So far they seem to have redirected their activities towards the West Bank. Although, so far, they're not as genocidal.

There'll be lots more to come there, I think.

bondegezou said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

Anyway, thank God Trump was elected and the war in Ukraine has been over for 3 days.

Well the war in Gaza has been over for 3 days at least

Israel will be resuming hostilities pretty soon, I fear. The idea their security is best served by further oppressing and colonising seems to have taken hold.

Netanyahu's idea that the best way to delay his fraud trial further is best served by further oppressing and colonising also remains strong.

I think too that is the problem in the Russo-Ukranian war. The war only stops when Putin stops, and unless it is total subjugation of Ukraine with Zelensky replaced by a puppet government, then it looks like Putin has failed. A lot more Russians and Ukranians have to die to keep him unchallenged.

rcs1000 said:

A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.

In many ways it is an action replay of France since about 2012. Remember France has a PR system which is less PR that FPTP by a long way. Anderson is much more telegenic that Farage. But the idea that it can be a commonplace on boards like this that the Right divided means more Marxism and it not be noticed either by the Conservatives or by Reform at a higher level is naive, and wrong.

Ummm:

I think the board agrees with you. The right will work out tactical voting, obviously, and it will become much more efficient over time.

But it is unlikely that the right wing vote in 2028 will be as efficient as the left wing one. For 2032/33, that is likely to be different.

Your analogy of France 2012 is a good one, albeit with the issue that we don't know how the world will pan out economically between now and 2032/33.

So... why do you think everyone disagrees with you?

Is a hypothetical party that wants to hang murderers and increase taxes on the rich to fund the NHS right or left wing?

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.

In many ways it is an action replay of France since about 2012. Remember France has a PR system which is less PR that FPTP by a long way. Anderson is much more telegenic that Farage. But the idea that it can be a commonplace on boards like this that the Right divided means more Marxism and it not be noticed either by the Conservatives or by Reform at a higher level is naive, and wrong.

Ummm:

I think the board agrees with you. The right will work out tactical voting, obviously, and it will become much more efficient over time.

But it is unlikely that the right wing vote in 2028 will be as efficient as the left wing one. For 2032/33, that is likely to be different.

Your analogy of France 2012 is a good one, albeit with the issue that we don't know how the world will pan out economically between now and 2032/33.

So... why do you think everyone disagrees with you?

Is a hypothetical party that wants to hang murderers and increase taxes on the rich to fund the NHS right or left wing?

Left and right is too simplistic as measures of politics. See horseshoe theory for Nazis vs Communists.

turbotubbs said:

kamski said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Labour will be a one-term government.

I think Labour will be at least a two term government, unless something changes. It's difficult for either Reform or the Conservatives to be largest party as long as they split the votes on the right. It's also difficult for the two parties to create a voting coalition before the election.

By default in that case, Labour will continue to have more seats than any other party and can form a government from there, even if it no longer has a majority.

That's possible, also possible that in 4 years time people will have forgotten how shit the tories were and the Conservatives will get a majority. They'd probably need to have a fresh untainted leader, and appeal to Reform voters on "controlling the border" - this might involve repudiating the last Conservative government letting in record numbers of immigrants. They've got the perfect fall guy to pin the blame on - Boris Johnson, who once said

“I’m probably about the only politician I know of who is actually willing to stand up and say that he’s pro-immigration.”

I think the Tories have a way to go to get the trust back, not unlike in 1997. Is there a Cameron figure out there to at least look like he connects and 'gets it'? Its unlikely to be Badenoch. But I also think that Labours massive majority is built on sand and could collapse as fast as it appeared.

Yes, I'm just not really seeing this government becoming popular (though maybe the mood will change). But I'm equally not seeing Reform winning. So it's the Conservatives by default. But they do need to get their act together + find someone who can pull off a tough-on-immigration-yet-compassionate-conservative image.

No idea of this is true, but on past evidence, it's credible.

The Washington Post reveals that an aide working for Mike Johnson persuaded Republicans not to issue a subpoena for former WH aide Cassidy Hutchinson, who testified to the Jan. 6 committee—fearing it could expose the sexual texts many of them had sent her...
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1882546569108718019

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.

In many ways it is an action replay of France since about 2012. Remember France has a PR system which is less PR that FPTP by a long way. Anderson is much more telegenic that Farage. But the idea that it can be a commonplace on boards like this that the Right divided means more Marxism and it not be noticed either by the Conservatives or by Reform at a higher level is naive, and wrong.

Ummm:

I think the board agrees with you. The right will work out tactical voting, obviously, and it will become much more efficient over time.

But it is unlikely that the right wing vote in 2028 will be as efficient as the left wing one. For 2032/33, that is likely to be different.

Your analogy of France 2012 is a good one, albeit with the issue that we don't know how the world will pan out economically between now and 2032/33.

So... why do you think everyone disagrees with you?

Is a hypothetical party that wants to hang murderers and increase taxes on the rich to fund the NHS right or left wing?

Left wing.

HYUFD said:

numbertwelve said:

williamglenn said:

Labour’s message seems to be that the UN prevents Rudakubana getting a whole life term.

https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1882766102733730191

REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.

Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake

I could never stand the Hang-em-and-flog-em types.

For a start, what's the point of flogging people *after* you've hung 'em?

It's this kind of basic failure in process engineering that makes this country second rate.... {old man starts shouting at clouds...}

Trump’s ‘ice maiden’ freezes Elon Musk out of West Wing

Susie Wiles, the president’s chief of staff, has denied the billionaire touted as ‘the real vice-president’ a permanent office in the heart of the White House

https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/susie-wiles-chief-of-staff-elon-musk-wp0pfkxrx

Well that's one way to do SMRs ?

British engine manufacturer Rolls-Royce has received its largest ever contract from the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD), valued at $11.1 billion, for the design, manufacture and support of Royal Navy nuclear submarine reactors.
https://breakingdefense.com/2025/01/uk-awards-rolls-royce-11b-nuclear-reactor-unity-contract/

kamski said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.

In many ways it is an action replay of France since about 2012. Remember France has a PR system which is less PR that FPTP by a long way. Anderson is much more telegenic that Farage. But the idea that it can be a commonplace on boards like this that the Right divided means more Marxism and it not be noticed either by the Conservatives or by Reform at a higher level is naive, and wrong.

Ummm:

I think the board agrees with you. The right will work out tactical voting, obviously, and it will become much more efficient over time.

But it is unlikely that the right wing vote in 2028 will be as efficient as the left wing one. For 2032/33, that is likely to be different.

Your analogy of France 2012 is a good one, albeit with the issue that we don't know how the world will pan out economically between now and 2032/33.

So... why do you think everyone disagrees with you?

Is a hypothetical party that wants to hang murderers and increase taxes on the rich to fund the NHS right or left wing?

Left wing.

Old Labour.

turbotubbs said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.

In many ways it is an action replay of France since about 2012. Remember France has a PR system which is less PR that FPTP by a long way. Anderson is much more telegenic that Farage. But the idea that it can be a commonplace on boards like this that the Right divided means more Marxism and it not be noticed either by the Conservatives or by Reform at a higher level is naive, and wrong.

Ummm:

I think the board agrees with you. The right will work out tactical voting, obviously, and it will become much more efficient over time.

But it is unlikely that the right wing vote in 2028 will be as efficient as the left wing one. For 2032/33, that is likely to be different.

Your analogy of France 2012 is a good one, albeit with the issue that we don't know how the world will pan out economically between now and 2032/33.

So... why do you think everyone disagrees with you?

Is a hypothetical party that wants to hang murderers and increase taxes on the rich to fund the NHS right or left wing?

Left and right is too simplistic as measures of politics. See horseshoe theory for Nazis vs Communists.

It would be interesting to see a plot on the Political Compass style chart (One axis for social, one for economic) of the current positions of the UK political parties.

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

Eabhal said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.

The polling does not suggest that (yet). It's primarily Conservative voters and GE '24 non-voters.

That's why I'm fairly confident that the Labour vote share would be higher with Farage as the main challenger than Badenoch. But they would be much less efficient, with lefty votes piling up in the outraged cities and lots of Reform/Labour marginals in the north.

The long-term trend is disguised by the Boris landslide in 2019 which means that a lot of the people who look like Tory -> Reform switchers on paper are actually former Labour voters.

They voted Labour to get rid of the Tories, out of frustration at them, but there wasn't a values shift.

They've moved to the Right and have stayed on the Right.

Possibly right on social issues, but they want more spending on them and their communities.

These are not free market Libertarians.

As with the large bulk of voters they are completely cakeist. Handouts for them, paid for by a combination of taxes on the rich (loosely defined as anyone who earns more than they do,) combined with the withdrawal of handouts from various categories of scroungers (primarily benefit cheats and asylum seekers, the draining effects of both of which on the state are vastly, vastly overestimated in the mind of the average voter.) The latter tendency is particularly prevalent, which is excellent news for Reform and the broader hard right project of blaming the enemy within for people's problems and encouraging them to vote for an alternative that will put the enemy in its place.

We have, of course, been here before.

The truth is that modern medicine has become rather good at keeping very decrepit elderly people, often with multiple complex health needs, alive, along with various categories of sick and disabled people who would previously have died young, and they and their care are, in the main, an enormous drain on the public purse. This, at the same time as women have decided they'd rather like interesting lives and careers, rather than pumping out loads of babies and spending all their waking hours cooking and cleaning and wiping up snot. Hence, extremely difficult demographics. Nobody wants to hear any of this because it means that society essentially has two choices: pay an absolute bloody fortune in tax to equip the vulnerable with the necessities of life and pay enough people enough money to give them decent care; or shoot them.

Voters don't want to stump up the cash and they don't want a granny genocide either, so they revolt and throw tantrums and turn to snake oil salesmen peddling quackonomic nonsense. Misinformation, wilfully blinkered attitudes, anger and desperation, aided and abetted by a muddled Government: this is how we arrive with the pitiable notion that Nigel Farage (or the second coming of Boris Johnson) is the solution to the nation's ills.

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

numbertwelve said:

williamglenn said:

Labour’s message seems to be that the UN prevents Rudakubana getting a whole life term.

https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1882766102733730191

REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.

Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake

The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.

Can you cite some examples?

https://x.com/cquilty52/status/1882474924356575237

People like #AxelRudakubana are put on suicide watch. He wants an easy way out. To him the death penalty is preferable to spending his whole life in a tiny brick box, being brutally bullied by others in jail. For that reason, I believe he must be kept alive to serve his sentence

https://x.com/jimwells007/status/1882478611195957744

Just to clarify, a minimum of 52 years in prison is worse than a death sentence. No hope, no one to talk to, in fear of being attacked, he will never have a family, spend every day in a small cell. Death would be an escape.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Trump’s ‘ice maiden’ freezes Elon Musk out of West Wing

Susie Wiles, the president’s chief of staff, has denied the billionaire touted as ‘the real vice-president’ a permanent office in the heart of the White House

https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/susie-wiles-chief-of-staff-elon-musk-wp0pfkxrx

That could go either way!

Foxy said:

turbotubbs said:

Foxy said:

turbotubbs said:

OldKingCole said:

algarkirk said:

The word cloud shows one fundamental thing. The public being polled wants solutions to a number of well known problems but does not want to pay for them, and furthermore wants them a bit more quickly than is feasible anyway. Farage and Reform are the only outfit offering this (bogusly of course) who have not already recently been tried out. Just one year ago Labour and Starmer were in that pole position.

Went out for a drink last night with a couple of neighbours. Bit younger than me, but not that much. One of them said that he'd been watching a lot of GB news "because he was fed up with the bias shown by the BBC and wanted the truth."
He then went on about the amount of grooming of young girls by men of Pakistani origin.
When he'd gone my remaining friend and I shook our heads sadly over hm.

I work at Uni and I am surrounded by people who mostly vote Labour or Lib Dem. Hard to find a Tory (or at least someone who would admit to it). It leads people who work here to believe that the whole country thinks as they do and so the shock at Brexit, and when Corbyn lost in 2019 etc is profound. The lack of engagement with 'normal people' feeds into this.

PB is rather like this. We have some who are not of the herd, but most are rather similar in views/beliefs. We are lucky that there are some outspoken outliers, otherwise we would be even more of an echo chamber than BSkyBBlueSky or whatever its called.

I'm not surprised at your neighbours attitudes. Lots of people think as they do. And currently they are flocking to Reform.

I had lunch today with my secretary, the ward cleaner and a porter. I think my secretary has always been Tory, but none of the 3 could stand Starmer.

The big grievance is the WFP. So it looks as if they all want a government that doles out more spending. Complaints too that the Minimum wage increase is affecting wage differentials. They were all seeing new trainee staff starting at or close to their pay, despite being required to train and supervise them.

Increases in minimum wage are good for those on them but we have seen massive pay restraint in the NHS and also at Uni - and this does erode the idea of a pay scale and advancement.

The other theme was that benefits were too generous, and that it barely paid to work. On the face of it a certain inconsistency, but there is a certain logic. More welfare spending, but better targeted at the workers than beneficiaries, apart from pensions. The cleaner said she didn't want to live long in retirement, as she expects permanent poverty and hardship.

It was a pretty bleak conversation, but I didn't provoke or participate in it.

How does a cleaner advance their career? There presumably aren't many Senior Cleaners out there. So if you start and end as a cleaner you need to really think how your retirement will be funded. I think too many people don't think about the future until it is too late. And not everyone can be a consultant at a Hospital or a Senior Lecturer at a top 10 uni*. I recall grandparents of a friend who had saved and scrimped their whole lives being livid that others who hadn't done so were bailed out by the state. They wondered why they had bothered. This is a real challenge.

Malmesbury said:

williamglenn said:

Labour’s message seems to be that the UN prevents Rudakubana getting a whole life term.

https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1882766102733730191

Which is rather stupid, as messaging.

So 16-17 year olds are children after all?

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Labour will be a one-term government.

As a majority yes, though most polls have them staying in office in a hung parliament if they can get LD support

The problem is, a Labour Party booted out by the voters means the LibDems would be toxic if voting for them meant keeping Labour in power.

They may have to go shit or bust - Prime Minister or nothing. Which didn't play so well when last tried by them...

Or maybe a coalition with Farage.

You can see their problem.

The LDs would never touch Farage, they would rather deal with the Tories again than him, though yes a Labour minority government propped up by the LDs would not be a bad outcome for Tory candidates in LD held home counties seats certainly

The idea of a LibDem/Farage coalition wouldn't last even as long as my smirk as I typed it...

In the unlikely eventuality, the only possibility I can see is a short term agreement to introduce STV followed by an election six months later

Scottish Television?

I see Trump has been critical of Zelensky for defending his country against a foreign invasion.

No doubt if Trump had been around in 1940 he'd have been telling Churchill to the "do a deal" with Hilter...

OldKingCole said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Trump’s ‘ice maiden’ freezes Elon Musk out of West Wing

Susie Wiles, the president’s chief of staff, has denied the billionaire touted as ‘the real vice-president’ a permanent office in the heart of the White House

https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/susie-wiles-chief-of-staff-elon-musk-wp0pfkxrx

That could go either way!

It gets even better

There was another sign of Wiles’s determination to put some distance between Musk and Trump in the executive order setting up Doge, which stated that its chief administrator must report to her.

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.

In many ways it is an action replay of France since about 2012. Remember France has a PR system which is less PR that FPTP by a long way. Anderson is much more telegenic that Farage. But the idea that it can be a commonplace on boards like this that the Right divided means more Marxism and it not be noticed either by the Conservatives or by Reform at a higher level is naive, and wrong.

Ummm:

I think the board agrees with you. The right will work out tactical voting, obviously, and it will become much more efficient over time.

But it is unlikely that the right wing vote in 2028 will be as efficient as the left wing one. For 2032/33, that is likely to be different.

Your analogy of France 2012 is a good one, albeit with the issue that we don't know how the world will pan out economically between now and 2032/33.

So... why do you think everyone disagrees with you?

Is a hypothetical party that wants to hang murderers and increase taxes on the rich to fund the NHS right or left wing?

Left and right is too simplistic as measures of politics. See horseshoe theory for Nazis vs Communists.

It would be interesting to see a plot on the Political Compass style chart (One axis for social, one for economic) of the current positions of the UK political parties.

In "dammit, already posted one chart today" news,

https://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2024

Quibble about where they have put the origin of their chart, but the relative positions look about right.

TheScreamingEagles said:

OldKingCole said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Trump’s ‘ice maiden’ freezes Elon Musk out of West Wing

Susie Wiles, the president’s chief of staff, has denied the billionaire touted as ‘the real vice-president’ a permanent office in the heart of the White House

https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/susie-wiles-chief-of-staff-elon-musk-wp0pfkxrx

That could go either way!

It gets even better

There was another sign of Wiles’s determination to put some distance between Musk and Trump in the executive order setting up Doge, which stated that its chief administrator must report to her.

Wiles by name, wily by nature.

GIN1138 said:

On topic, I think a Farage/REF implosion is more likely than not before 2029.

Perhaps, but unfortunately not today.

Find Out Now voting intention:
🟦 Reform UK: 26% (+1)
🔵 Conservatives: 23% (-2)
🔴 Labour: 22% (-2)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-)
🟢 Greens: 10% (-)

Changes from 15th January
[Find Out Now, 22nd January, N=2,380]

Stuartinromford said:

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.

In many ways it is an action replay of France since about 2012. Remember France has a PR system which is less PR that FPTP by a long way. Anderson is much more telegenic that Farage. But the idea that it can be a commonplace on boards like this that the Right divided means more Marxism and it not be noticed either by the Conservatives or by Reform at a higher level is naive, and wrong.

Ummm:

I think the board agrees with you. The right will work out tactical voting, obviously, and it will become much more efficient over time.

But it is unlikely that the right wing vote in 2028 will be as efficient as the left wing one. For 2032/33, that is likely to be different.

Your analogy of France 2012 is a good one, albeit with the issue that we don't know how the world will pan out economically between now and 2032/33.

So... why do you think everyone disagrees with you?

Is a hypothetical party that wants to hang murderers and increase taxes on the rich to fund the NHS right or left wing?

Left and right is too simplistic as measures of politics. See horseshoe theory for Nazis vs Communists.

It would be interesting to see a plot on the Political Compass style chart (One axis for social, one for economic) of the current positions of the UK political parties.

In "dammit, already posted one chart today" news,

https://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2024

Quibble about where they have put the origin of their chart, but the relative positions look about right.

Yes, the idea that the center ground of British politics is between the communist and socialist parties is ridiculous.

Northern_Al said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

numbertwelve said:

williamglenn said:

Labour’s message seems to be that the UN prevents Rudakubana getting a whole life term.

https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1882766102733730191

REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.

Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake

The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.

Can you cite some examples?

https://x.com/cquilty52/status/1882474924356575237

People like #AxelRudakubana are put on suicide watch. He wants an easy way out. To him the death penalty is preferable to spending his whole life in a tiny brick box, being brutally bullied by others in jail. For that reason, I believe he must be kept alive to serve his sentence

https://x.com/jimwells007/status/1882478611195957744

Just to clarify, a minimum of 52 years in prison is worse than a death sentence. No hope, no one to talk to, in fear of being attacked, he will never have a family, spend every day in a small cell. Death would be an escape.

Well, if the one and only Jim Wells, with his 139 followers, says it, then I guess it must be true.
You don't half link to some tripe.

The comments are just to illustrate an argument which is quite prevalent among ordinary people to justify their opposition to the death penalty.

The people in the criminal justice system to whom @TSE refers are more likely to use arguments based on personal vanity: we can't have the death penalty because it would make us as bad as them (where them can refer either to the criminals themselves or more often to foreigners who aren't as enlightened as us and still execute people).

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foss said:

GIN1138 said:

On topic, I think a Farage/REF implosion is more likely than not before 2029.

Perhaps, but unfortunately not today.

Find Out Now voting intention:
🟦 Reform UK: 26% (+1)
🔵 Conservatives: 23% (-2)
🔴 Labour: 22% (-2)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-)
🟢 Greens: 10% (-)

Changes from 15th January
[Find Out Now, 22nd January, N=2,380]

Just rejoice at that news.

I wonder if we'll get crossover between the Lib Dems and Labour at some point this year. Third could be the best Labour can hope for.

williamglenn said:

Northern_Al said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

numbertwelve said:

williamglenn said:

Labour’s message seems to be that the UN prevents Rudakubana getting a whole life term.

https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1882766102733730191

REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.

Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake

The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.

Can you cite some examples?

https://x.com/cquilty52/status/1882474924356575237

People like #AxelRudakubana are put on suicide watch. He wants an easy way out. To him the death penalty is preferable to spending his whole life in a tiny brick box, being brutally bullied by others in jail. For that reason, I believe he must be kept alive to serve his sentence

https://x.com/jimwells007/status/1882478611195957744

Just to clarify, a minimum of 52 years in prison is worse than a death sentence. No hope, no one to talk to, in fear of being attacked, he will never have a family, spend every day in a small cell. Death would be an escape.

Well, if the one and only Jim Wells, with his 139 followers, says it, then I guess it must be true.
You don't half link to some tripe.

The comments are just to illustrate an argument which is quite prevalent among ordinary people to justify their opposition to the death penalty.

The people in the criminal justice system to whom @TSE refers are more likely to use arguments based on personal vanity: we can't have the death penalty because it would make us as bad as them (where them can refer either to the criminals themselves or more often to foreigners who aren't as enlightened as us and still execute people).

See this is where you’re talking utter bollocks, again.

My friends in the CPS and defence teams would tell you because of serious number of miscarriages in the past, juries would be reluctant to convict where there was a chance of the death penalty.

You’d have dreadlocked juries and guilty people getting away with is a major concern.

Foss said:

GIN1138 said:

On topic, I think a Farage/REF implosion is more likely than not before 2029.

Perhaps, but unfortunately not today.

Find Out Now voting intention:
🟦 Reform UK: 26% (+1)
🔵 Conservatives: 23% (-2)
🔴 Labour: 22% (-2)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-)
🟢 Greens: 10% (-)

Changes from 15th January
[Find Out Now, 22nd January, N=2,380]

That thread also has an interesting chart on the origins of Reform's current support. The levels of DNV '24 suggests it might be slightly soft.

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

Northern_Al said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

numbertwelve said:

williamglenn said:

Labour’s message seems to be that the UN prevents Rudakubana getting a whole life term.

https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1882766102733730191

REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.

Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake

The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.

Can you cite some examples?

https://x.com/cquilty52/status/1882474924356575237

People like #AxelRudakubana are put on suicide watch. He wants an easy way out. To him the death penalty is preferable to spending his whole life in a tiny brick box, being brutally bullied by others in jail. For that reason, I believe he must be kept alive to serve his sentence

https://x.com/jimwells007/status/1882478611195957744

Just to clarify, a minimum of 52 years in prison is worse than a death sentence. No hope, no one to talk to, in fear of being attacked, he will never have a family, spend every day in a small cell. Death would be an escape.

Well, if the one and only Jim Wells, with his 139 followers, says it, then I guess it must be true.
You don't half link to some tripe.

The comments are just to illustrate an argument which is quite prevalent among ordinary people to justify their opposition to the death penalty.

The people in the criminal justice system to whom @TSE refers are more likely to use arguments based on personal vanity: we can't have the death penalty because it would make us as bad as them (where them can refer either to the criminals themselves or more often to foreigners who aren't as enlightened as us and still execute people).

See this is where you’re talking utter bollocks, again.

My friends in the CPS and defence teams would tell you because of serious number of miscarriages in the past, juries would be reluctant to convict where there was a chance of the death penalty.

You’d have dreadlocked juries and guilty people getting away with is a major concern.

Brilliant typo?
Dreadlocked juries would not be popular, I fear.

Foss said:

GIN1138 said:

On topic, I think a Farage/REF implosion is more likely than not before 2029.

Perhaps, but unfortunately not today.

Find Out Now voting intention:
🟦 Reform UK: 26% (+1)
🔵 Conservatives: 23% (-2)
🔴 Labour: 22% (-2)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-)
🟢 Greens: 10% (-)

Changes from 15th January
[Find Out Now, 22nd January, N=2,380]

Lab/Con 45%. SPLORG 55%. A record low (in recent times anyway) for Lab/Con. Lab/Con was 76%+ in 2019 GE.

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Labour will be a one-term government.

As a majority yes, though most polls have them staying in office in a hung parliament if they can get LD support

The problem is, a Labour Party booted out by the voters means the LibDems would be toxic if voting for them meant keeping Labour in power.

They may have to go shit or bust - Prime Minister or nothing. Which didn't play so well when last tried by them...

Or maybe a coalition with Farage.

You can see their problem.

The LDs would never touch Farage, they would rather deal with the Tories again than him, though yes a Labour minority government propped up by the LDs would not be a bad outcome for Tory candidates in LD held home counties seats certainly

The idea of a LibDem/Farage coalition wouldn't last even as long as my smirk as I typed it...

In the unlikely eventuality, the only possibility I can see is a short term agreement to introduce STV followed by an election six months later

Reform don't want a preferential system of PR. They want a list system.

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

Northern_Al said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

numbertwelve said:

williamglenn said:

Labour’s message seems to be that the UN prevents Rudakubana getting a whole life term.

https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1882766102733730191

REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.

Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake

The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.

Can you cite some examples?

https://x.com/cquilty52/status/1882474924356575237

People like #AxelRudakubana are put on suicide watch. He wants an easy way out. To him the death penalty is preferable to spending his whole life in a tiny brick box, being brutally bullied by others in jail. For that reason, I believe he must be kept alive to serve his sentence

https://x.com/jimwells007/status/1882478611195957744

Just to clarify, a minimum of 52 years in prison is worse than a death sentence. No hope, no one to talk to, in fear of being attacked, he will never have a family, spend every day in a small cell. Death would be an escape.

Well, if the one and only Jim Wells, with his 139 followers, says it, then I guess it must be true.
You don't half link to some tripe.

The comments are just to illustrate an argument which is quite prevalent among ordinary people to justify their opposition to the death penalty.

The people in the criminal justice system to whom @TSE refers are more likely to use arguments based on personal vanity: we can't have the death penalty because it would make us as bad as them (where them can refer either to the criminals themselves or more often to foreigners who aren't as enlightened as us and still execute people).

See this is where you’re talking utter bollocks, again.

My friends in the CPS and defence teams would tell you because of serious number of miscarriages in the past, juries would be reluctant to convict where there was a chance of the death penalty.

You’d have dreadlocked juries and guilty people getting away with is a major concern.

That's speculative and implies that juries are currently convicting people where they have doubts because the stakes are lower.

No, it implies they would apply an even stricter test than "beyond reasonable doubt" if capital punishment were an option. Some might even simply refuse to convict irrespective of evidence - and unless they said so publicly, there would be little you could do about it.

Your logic on this fails repeatedly.

.

williamglenn said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foss said:

GIN1138 said:

On topic, I think a Farage/REF implosion is more likely than not before 2029.

Perhaps, but unfortunately not today.

Find Out Now voting intention:
🟦 Reform UK: 26% (+1)
🔵 Conservatives: 23% (-2)
🔴 Labour: 22% (-2)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-)
🟢 Greens: 10% (-)

Changes from 15th January
[Find Out Now, 22nd January, N=2,380]

Just rejoice at that news.

I wonder if we'll get crossover between the Lib Dems and Labour at some point this year. Third could be the best Labour can hope for.

I have found Labour's polling surprisingly sticky. It has been tracking inexorably down, but not in the same way as Starmer's approval rating. I wouldn't know why that would be. Could be something in the re-allocation of don't knows? I know our own view is skewed by our media diet, and I am a right wing media consumer, but I don't think there's much of a Guardian/Mirror/The Rest is Politics alternative narrative bubble where everyone thinks it's going brilliantly well.

I am expecting Labour's losses to continue, and for them to fall behind Reform and the Tories in most polls. I think Ref, Cons, Lab in that order will solidify.

I was worried (politically) about the forthcoming Crime and Justice bill having some good popular measures in it. But judging from the recent bollocks about kitchen knives from Amazon, it'll just be more snooping on the law-abiding. It's just not in Labour to turn this around - their instincts oppose everything that they need to do.

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

Northern_Al said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

numbertwelve said:

williamglenn said:

Labour’s message seems to be that the UN prevents Rudakubana getting a whole life term.

https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1882766102733730191

REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.

Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake

The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.

Can you cite some examples?

https://x.com/cquilty52/status/1882474924356575237

People like #AxelRudakubana are put on suicide watch. He wants an easy way out. To him the death penalty is preferable to spending his whole life in a tiny brick box, being brutally bullied by others in jail. For that reason, I believe he must be kept alive to serve his sentence

https://x.com/jimwells007/status/1882478611195957744

Just to clarify, a minimum of 52 years in prison is worse than a death sentence. No hope, no one to talk to, in fear of being attacked, he will never have a family, spend every day in a small cell. Death would be an escape.

Well, if the one and only Jim Wells, with his 139 followers, says it, then I guess it must be true.
You don't half link to some tripe.

The comments are just to illustrate an argument which is quite prevalent among ordinary people to justify their opposition to the death penalty.

The people in the criminal justice system to whom @TSE refers are more likely to use arguments based on personal vanity: we can't have the death penalty because it would make us as bad as them (where them can refer either to the criminals themselves or more often to foreigners who aren't as enlightened as us and still execute people).

See this is where you’re talking utter bollocks, again.

My friends in the CPS and defence teams would tell you because of serious number of miscarriages in the past, juries would be reluctant to convict where there was a chance of the death penalty.

You’d have dreadlocked juries and guilty people getting away with is a major concern.

That's speculative and implies that juries are currently convicting people where they have doubts because the stakes are lower.

No it is based on actual experience, there’s also a reason why voir dire is so important and why some jurisdictions a lot of money is spent on it by the legal teams.

For potential death penalty cases the jurors would move to more than beyond a reasonable doubt test, there’s different thresholds.

pigeon said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foxy said:

bondegezou said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kamski said:

Anyway, thank God Trump was elected and the war in Ukraine has been over for 3 days.

Well the war in Gaza has been over for 3 days at least

Israel will be resuming hostilities pretty soon, I fear. The idea their security is best served by further oppressing and colonising seems to have taken hold.

Netanyahu's idea that the best way to delay his fraud trial further is best served by further oppressing and colonising also remains strong.

I think too that is the problem in the Russo-Ukranian war. The war only stops when Putin stops, and unless it is total subjugation of Ukraine with Zelensky replaced by a puppet government, then it looks like Putin has failed. A lot more Russians and Ukranians have to die to keep him unchallenged.

I am very interested to see the outcome of Trump's hardballing (at least publicly) of Putin. It will be quite hard to view 'making the deal' as anything other than the capitulation of one 'strong man' to another. On the other hand it gives Russia a much needed off-ramp to the invasion, and possibly with some of its ill-gotten gains.

Ever since the Russian army was successfully repulsed from Kyiv, the probable outcome has always been the partition of Ukraine. Russia is too large, and Putin is too invested in the war, for Ukraine to win outright; Ukraine is too large to be successfully overrun and occupied.

This ends either with a ceasefire and a de facto annexation by Russia of the territory it possesses, with both sides continuing to claim territory on the enemy side of the line of control; or in a bargain whereby Ukraine cedes the conquests outright, in exchange for freedom for the surviving four-fifths of the country to shift decisively into the western bloc and join NATO. My instinct is that it'll be the former outcome but I wouldn't bet real money on it.

I agree, and agree on the former being more probable.

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

Northern_Al said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

numbertwelve said:

williamglenn said:

Labour’s message seems to be that the UN prevents Rudakubana getting a whole life term.

https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1882766102733730191

REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.

Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake

The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.

Can you cite some examples?

https://x.com/cquilty52/status/1882474924356575237

People like #AxelRudakubana are put on suicide watch. He wants an easy way out. To him the death penalty is preferable to spending his whole life in a tiny brick box, being brutally bullied by others in jail. For that reason, I believe he must be kept alive to serve his sentence

https://x.com/jimwells007/status/1882478611195957744

Just to clarify, a minimum of 52 years in prison is worse than a death sentence. No hope, no one to talk to, in fear of being attacked, he will never have a family, spend every day in a small cell. Death would be an escape.

Well, if the one and only Jim Wells, with his 139 followers, says it, then I guess it must be true.
You don't half link to some tripe.

The comments are just to illustrate an argument which is quite prevalent among ordinary people to justify their opposition to the death penalty.

The people in the criminal justice system to whom @TSE refers are more likely to use arguments based on personal vanity: we can't have the death penalty because it would make us as bad as them (where them can refer either to the criminals themselves or more often to foreigners who aren't as enlightened as us and still execute people).

See this is where you’re talking utter bollocks, again.

My friends in the CPS and defence teams would tell you because of serious number of miscarriages in the past, juries would be reluctant to convict where there was a chance of the death penalty.

You’d have dreadlocked juries and guilty people getting away with is a major concern.

That's speculative and implies that juries are currently convicting people where they have doubts because the stakes are lower.

No it is based on actual experience, there’s also a reason why voir dire is so important and why some jurisdictions a lot of money is spent on it by the legal teams.

For potential death penalty cases the jurors would move to more than beyond a reasonable doubt test, there’s different thresholds.

Which leads to the situation in the US, where some jurors can be selected only from the population totally ignorant of current affairs, a process which can take a great deal of time and expense.
Which is perhaps not optimal for either the speedy or effective administration of justice.

turbotubbs said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

Northern_Al said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

numbertwelve said:

williamglenn said:

Labour’s message seems to be that the UN prevents Rudakubana getting a whole life term.

https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1882766102733730191

REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.

Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake

The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.

Can you cite some examples?

https://x.com/cquilty52/status/1882474924356575237

People like #AxelRudakubana are put on suicide watch. He wants an easy way out. To him the death penalty is preferable to spending his whole life in a tiny brick box, being brutally bullied by others in jail. For that reason, I believe he must be kept alive to serve his sentence

https://x.com/jimwells007/status/1882478611195957744

Just to clarify, a minimum of 52 years in prison is worse than a death sentence. No hope, no one to talk to, in fear of being attacked, he will never have a family, spend every day in a small cell. Death would be an escape.

Well, if the one and only Jim Wells, with his 139 followers, says it, then I guess it must be true.
You don't half link to some tripe.

The comments are just to illustrate an argument which is quite prevalent among ordinary people to justify their opposition to the death penalty.

The people in the criminal justice system to whom @TSE refers are more likely to use arguments based on personal vanity: we can't have the death penalty because it would make us as bad as them (where them can refer either to the criminals themselves or more often to foreigners who aren't as enlightened as us and still execute people).

See this is where you’re talking utter bollocks, again.

My friends in the CPS and defence teams would tell you because of serious number of miscarriages in the past, juries would be reluctant to convict where there was a chance of the death penalty.

You’d have dreadlocked juries and guilty people getting away with is a major concern.

I think its fair that past miscarriages of justice mitigate against the death penalty, but its not the reason for every opponent. Take the current example, I don't think their can be any doubt that he did it- apprehended at the scene etc. So objections on the basis of 'he could be innocent' fall away and we are left with objections such as ' the state shouldn't have the power to execute people' and 'life in prison is a better punishment'.

Personally I'd be happy if this person was executed but I understand not everyone will agree.

The most cowardly argument you come across is people hoping something happens to him in prison, as if they are passing the buck to the inmates to do their dirty work.

williamglenn said:

Northern_Al said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

numbertwelve said:

williamglenn said:

Labour’s message seems to be that the UN prevents Rudakubana getting a whole life term.

https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1882766102733730191

REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.

Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake

The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.

Can you cite some examples?

https://x.com/cquilty52/status/1882474924356575237

People like #AxelRudakubana are put on suicide watch. He wants an easy way out. To him the death penalty is preferable to spending his whole life in a tiny brick box, being brutally bullied by others in jail. For that reason, I believe he must be kept alive to serve his sentence

https://x.com/jimwells007/status/1882478611195957744

Just to clarify, a minimum of 52 years in prison is worse than a death sentence. No hope, no one to talk to, in fear of being attacked, he will never have a family, spend every day in a small cell. Death would be an escape.

Well, if the one and only Jim Wells, with his 139 followers, says it, then I guess it must be true.
You don't half link to some tripe.

The comments are just to illustrate an argument which is quite prevalent among ordinary people to justify their opposition to the death penalty.

The people in the criminal justice system to whom @TSE refers are more likely to use arguments based on personal vanity: we can't have the death penalty because it would make us as bad as them (where them can refer either to the criminals themselves or more often to foreigners who aren't as enlightened as us and still execute people).

Pillock

Stark_Dawning said:

williamglenn said:

turbotubbs said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

Northern_Al said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

numbertwelve said:

williamglenn said:

Labour’s message seems to be that the UN prevents Rudakubana getting a whole life term.

https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1882766102733730191

REFUK are going to have the reintroduction of the death penalty as a policy, I suspect.

Will Farage be able to keep it just to hanging and lethal injection though? I suspect Lee Anderson could push for restoring hanging drawing and quartering and burnings at the stake

The way some opponents of the death penalty relish talking about life imprisonment as a form of mental torture that's actually a much harsher punishment, hanging could be presented as the more humane option.

Can you cite some examples?

https://x.com/cquilty52/status/1882474924356575237

People like #AxelRudakubana are put on suicide watch. He wants an easy way out. To him the death penalty is preferable to spending his whole life in a tiny brick box, being brutally bullied by others in jail. For that reason, I believe he must be kept alive to serve his sentence

https://x.com/jimwells007/status/1882478611195957744

Just to clarify, a minimum of 52 years in prison is worse than a death sentence. No hope, no one to talk to, in fear of being attacked, he will never have a family, spend every day in a small cell. Death would be an escape.

Well, if the one and only Jim Wells, with his 139 followers, says it, then I guess it must be true.
You don't half link to some tripe.

The comments are just to illustrate an argument which is quite prevalent among ordinary people to justify their opposition to the death penalty.

The people in the criminal justice system to whom @TSE refers are more likely to use arguments based on personal vanity: we can't have the death penalty because it would make us as bad as them (where them can refer either to the criminals themselves or more often to foreigners who aren't as enlightened as us and still execute people).

See this is where you’re talking utter bollocks, again.

My friends in the CPS and defence teams would tell you because of serious number of miscarriages in the past, juries would be reluctant to convict where there was a chance of the death penalty.

You’d have dreadlocked juries and guilty people getting away with is a major concern.

I think its fair that past miscarriages of justice mitigate against the death penalty, but its not the reason for every opponent. Take the current example, I don't think their can be any doubt that he did it- apprehended at the scene etc. So objections on the basis of 'he could be innocent' fall away and we are left with objections such as ' the state shouldn't have the power to execute people' and 'life in prison is a better punishment'.

Personally I'd be happy if this person was executed but I understand not everyone will agree.

The most cowardly argument you come across is people hoping something happens to him in prison, as if they are passing the buck to the inmates to do their dirty work.

You could make a moral case for that, if you thought being beaten up and murdered horribly by inmates provides a better deterrent than that of the state executioner.

There is never a good moral case for brutality.