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Let’s talk about clouds – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,647
edited February 18 in General
imageLet’s talk about clouds – politicalbetting.com

How UK politics has changed in a year: the British public's ideal Prime Minister in March 2024 versus January 2025Source: @JLPartnersPolls in The Sunday Times pic.twitter.com/bBkHf6qWmH

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,412
    edited January 24
    FIRST

    (YES, I'M SHOUTING AT CLOUDS.)

    On topic: who is Lewis on the 2024 cloud?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,461
    Elon Musk has posed as champion of bereaved families in Southport

    but the killer watched a violent video just before his killing spree *on X*

    and Musk is refusing to take it down despite numerous official requests from UK & Australian authorities

    https://x.com/PickardJE/status/1882778716394405978
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,412
    My photo quota:


  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,780
    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,226
    edited January 24
    The obvious answer seems to be that the Tories need to get Boris Johnson back. I mean, what could possibly go wrong?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,620
    MattW said:

    FIRST

    (YES, I'M SHOUTING AT CLOUDS.)

    On topic: who is Lewis on the 2024 cloud?

    Sir Lewis to you.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,623
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    COME ON, NIGEL
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,461
    MattW said:

    FIRST

    (YES, I'M SHOUTING AT CLOUDS.)

    On topic: who is Lewis on the 2024 cloud?

    Martin Lewis.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,620
    Leon said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    COME ON, NIGEL
    Apols - Burma is not on my list.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,412
    edited January 24
    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    FIRST

    (YES, I'M SHOUTING AT CLOUDS.)

    On topic: who is Lewis on the 2024 cloud?

    Sir Lewis to you.
    Apparently it's the other one.

    So says TSE, and lawyers never lie.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,620
    Fare machines in public transport in Tbilisi play the phrases “Glory to Ukraine, Glory to Georgia, Fuck Russia”, “Putin is a dick”, chant “Sakartvelo”, “I am Georgian and therefore I am European” and other slogans and words that can be heard at protests in the Georgian capital.

    Tbilisi City Hall said that the validators have been temporarily turned off. During this period, transportation fare will be free...
    https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1882755140236587348P
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,994
    edited January 24
    The problem with these word clouds is that if there is someone so ridiculously popular with respondents then the letters become so big you can no longer see them hence being unable to read “Liz Truss”.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,412
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Brains Trust
    Brains Trust

    Is anyone familiar with the actual rules around driving after eye dilation?

    This morning I have a tartar of a nurse who says she would not want me to even be cycling .afterwards.

    A question many of my diabetes patients ask.

    The answer is that it is legal to drive when the influence of the drops has worn off, which varies with the drops used and the spectacle prescription. With me it's about 30 minutes.

    Otherwise it depends on weather conditions. If it's sunny then there is a problem of glare, and also at night with headlights, much less so on a dull overcast day.

    There is a distance vision criteria for driving, a number plate at 20 meters, but even dilated most drivers make that. The bigger problem is glare, and theoretically insurance could be invalid as under the influence of medication.

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10325996/
    OK. Back from the Opthalmology Clinic, where I'm up for treatment for my first diabetic eye complication (after 25 years) - a macular oedema, which is fluid trapped behind the retina which over time blurs the eyesight somewhat. Treatment is a course of injections of something called EYLEA (I'm not going into detail - look it up :smile: ).

    I'll comment to @Foxy , and thanks for the other replies (even the jokes).

    So, Foxy, it's basically my decision to make sure that I am safe to drive, and my responsibility if I get the decision wrong.

    The nurse this morning indicated that had I been driving, or I think cycling, and told her so, she would have refused to treat me with eye-drops as a matter of her Duty of Care to the public / professional responsibility, as had I then had a collision my insurance would perhaps have been inapplicable so I would have the book thrown at me, and she would be for the high jump from her regulators. I did quiz her quite extensively. I don't know a legal basis for the application to cycling, and she became a touch vague when I started asking about mobility scooters!

    So by your comments someone is being somewhat overcautious, possibly at hospital policy level.

    Practically I have always been quite comfortable driving after a lunch post-appointment, or after a trip round the supermarket - so after 60 minutes. However, it has always been my practice since diagnosis around 2000 to have Reactions and anti-glare lenses to help manage circumstances, just as a passive safety thing. Also, I live close to the hospital (10 minutes) and would be very cautious if say I lived 40km away. Of course, this time of year is the worst for low dazzle from winter sun, which is why so many "slow-down, me?" people drive through pedestrians and cyclists they don't even see.

    Incidentally, I have my new two sets of glasses arriving this week, and they cost exactly what I said on here last year - £530 (£800 - £270 'discounts'). That's 2x £130 frames, both with ultrathin lenses, anti-glare, 4 way mobile hinges to 170 degrees, high end varifocal, one with reactions for external / driving, the other clear for indoors / computer. Specsavers always has one feature totally undiscounted, which is currently thinning, which is where they make the money. One hopes these will last several years.
    Yes, It sounds as if the nurse was over egging it substantially.

    The government guidance is here (section 2 being the applicable section, mydriasis means dilating drops for diagnostic purposes).

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/diabetic-eye-screening-patients-who-drive-to-appointments/diabetic-eye-screening-patients-who-drive-to-appointments

    As you can see in section 2.3 it is reasonable to wait until vision returns before driving. It varies a lot by individuals, but it is the drivers responsibility to ensure that they are fit to drive, not the nurse or other staff.
    Is it normal practice to ask, for such an appointment and before eye dilation to ask: "Did you drive to hospital?" ?

    This is afaicr, normal practice at my hospital.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,205
    FPT...
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I hope @Richard_Tyndall is OK and is being paid an awful lot of money for what he's doing.

    Stay safe mate.

    Got another 6 hours or so before we reach the peak. Once that is over we will be a lot happier. Currently running a bit above forecast for wind speeds and sea states. The rig is creaking a bit but the anchors are holding so we should be okay.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,461
    edited January 24
    Stuff like this turns me from an unabashed free marketeer into a raging socialist.

    Severn Trent to raise dividends as water bills rise by 47%

    The water company told investors payouts would increase by the CPIH inflation rate after it was allowed to increase bills

    Severn Trent has told its shareholders that they can expect an annual increase in dividends at the the Bank of England’s preferred rate of inflation after recently winning one of the biggest increases in customer bills in the country.

    The water company, the second largest in the country behind Thames Water, supplying 8 million people, accepted a five-year funding settlement with Ofwat on Friday.

    The regional water monopoly said it would accept a deal that will result in annual bills in the region increasing by 47 per cent between now and spring 2030 to £583 from the current average of £398. Annual bills will be even higher when accounting for inflation.

    During the next five years of price increases, Severn Trent is forecasting that one in six households in its region will have to have financial support to pay their bills, a programme in which the rest of the local population pay a surcharge to make others’ bills affordable.

    https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/severn-trent-to-raise-dividends-as-water-bills-rise-by-47-percent-ntg5j2bbb
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,723
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Brains Trust
    Brains Trust

    Is anyone familiar with the actual rules around driving after eye dilation?

    This morning I have a tartar of a nurse who says she would not want me to even be cycling .afterwards.

    A question many of my diabetes patients ask.

    The answer is that it is legal to drive when the influence of the drops has worn off, which varies with the drops used and the spectacle prescription. With me it's about 30 minutes.

    Otherwise it depends on weather conditions. If it's sunny then there is a problem of glare, and also at night with headlights, much less so on a dull overcast day.

    There is a distance vision criteria for driving, a number plate at 20 meters, but even dilated most drivers make that. The bigger problem is glare, and theoretically insurance could be invalid as under the influence of medication.

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10325996/
    OK. Back from the Opthalmology Clinic, where I'm up for treatment for my first diabetic eye complication (after 25 years) - a macular oedema, which is fluid trapped behind the retina which over time blurs the eyesight somewhat. Treatment is a course of injections of something called EYLEA (I'm not going into detail - look it up :smile: ).

    I'll comment to @Foxy , and thanks for the other replies (even the jokes).

    So, Foxy, it's basically my decision to make sure that I am safe to drive, and my responsibility if I get the decision wrong.

    The nurse this morning indicated that had I been driving, or I think cycling, and told her so, she would have refused to treat me with eye-drops as a matter of her Duty of Care to the public / professional responsibility, as had I then had a collision my insurance would perhaps have been inapplicable so I would have the book thrown at me, and she would be for the high jump from her regulators. I did quiz her quite extensively. I don't know a legal basis for the application to cycling, and she became a touch vague when I started asking about mobility scooters!

    So by your comments someone is being somewhat overcautious, possibly at hospital policy level.

    Practically I have always been quite comfortable driving after a lunch post-appointment, or after a trip round the supermarket - so after 60 minutes. However, it has always been my practice since diagnosis around 2000 to have Reactions and anti-glare lenses to help manage circumstances, just as a passive safety thing. Also, I live close to the hospital (10 minutes) and would be very cautious if say I lived 40km away. Of course, this time of year is the worst for low dazzle from winter sun, which is why so many "slow-down, me?" people drive through pedestrians and cyclists they don't even see.

    Incidentally, I have my new two sets of glasses arriving this week, and they cost exactly what I said on here last year - £530 (£800 - £270 'discounts'). That's 2x £130 frames, both with ultrathin lenses, anti-glare, 4 way mobile hinges to 170 degrees, high end varifocal, one with reactions for external / driving, the other clear for indoors / computer. Specsavers always has one feature totally undiscounted, which is currently thinning, which is where they make the money. One hopes these will last several years.
    Yes, It sounds as if the nurse was over egging it substantially.

    The government guidance is here (section 2 being the applicable section, mydriasis means dilating drops for diagnostic purposes).

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/diabetic-eye-screening-patients-who-drive-to-appointments/diabetic-eye-screening-patients-who-drive-to-appointments

    As you can see in section 2.3 it is reasonable to wait until vision returns before driving. It varies a lot by individuals, but it is the drivers responsibility to ensure that they are fit to drive, not the nurse or other staff.
    Is it normal practice to ask, for such an appointment and before eye dilation to ask: "Did you drive to hospital?" ?

    This is afaicr, normal practice at my hospital.
    Yes, that is routine and good practice. It should be in the appointment letter too.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    The flip side to those charts is that they don't show who people particularly *don't* want as PM. Farage has quite large (although not huge) negative numbers, and - I'd guess - those are quite deep hostiles i.e. it's not just that lots of people don't want him: it's that they *really* don't want him to the point of voting tactically or putting up with a not-great option to keep him out.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,139
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    Trump is most popular with younger voters in the UK, and least popular with the oldest voters. Maybe the same thing will be true with Reform in the future.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,620
    MattW said:


    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    FIRST

    (YES, I'M SHOUTING AT CLOUDS.)

    On topic: who is Lewis on the 2024 cloud?

    Sir Lewis to you.
    Apparently it's the other one.

    So says TSE, and lawyers never lie.
    There is only one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,620
    edited January 24
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Stuff like this turns me from an unabashed free marketeer into a raging socialist.

    Severn Trent to raise dividends as water bills rise by 47%

    The water company told investors payouts would increase by the CPIH inflation rate after it was allowed to increase bills

    Severn Trent has told its shareholders that they can expect an annual increase in dividends at the the Bank of England’s preferred rate of inflation after recently winning one of the biggest increases in customer bills in the country.

    The water company, the second largest in the country behind Thames Water, supplying 8 million people, accepted a five-year funding settlement with Ofwat on Friday.

    The regional water monopoly said it would accept a deal that will result in annual bills in the region increasing by 47 per cent between now and spring 2030 to £583 from the current average of £398. Annual bills will be even higher when accounting for inflation.

    During the next five years of price increases, Severn Trent is forecasting that one in six households in its region will have to have financial support to pay their bills, a programme in which the rest of the local population pay a surcharge to make others’ bills affordable.

    https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/severn-trent-to-raise-dividends-as-water-bills-rise-by-47-percent-ntg5j2bbb

    A clearly sign the regulator is still useless.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,412
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Brains Trust
    Brains Trust

    Is anyone familiar with the actual rules around driving after eye dilation?

    This morning I have a tartar of a nurse who says she would not want me to even be cycling .afterwards.

    A question many of my diabetes patients ask.

    The answer is that it is legal to drive when the influence of the drops has worn off, which varies with the drops used and the spectacle prescription. With me it's about 30 minutes.

    Otherwise it depends on weather conditions. If it's sunny then there is a problem of glare, and also at night with headlights, much less so on a dull overcast day.

    There is a distance vision criteria for driving, a number plate at 20 meters, but even dilated most drivers make that. The bigger problem is glare, and theoretically insurance could be invalid as under the influence of medication.

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10325996/
    OK. Back from the Opthalmology Clinic, where I'm up for treatment for my first diabetic eye complication (after 25 years) - a macular oedema, which is fluid trapped behind the retina which over time blurs the eyesight somewhat. Treatment is a course of injections of something called EYLEA (I'm not going into detail - look it up :smile: ).

    I'll comment to @Foxy , and thanks for the other replies (even the jokes).

    So, Foxy, it's basically my decision to make sure that I am safe to drive, and my responsibility if I get the decision wrong.

    The nurse this morning indicated that had I been driving, or I think cycling, and told her so, she would have refused to treat me with eye-drops as a matter of her Duty of Care to the public / professional responsibility, as had I then had a collision my insurance would perhaps have been inapplicable so I would have the book thrown at me, and she would be for the high jump from her regulators. I did quiz her quite extensively. I don't know a legal basis for the application to cycling, and she became a touch vague when I started asking about mobility scooters!

    So by your comments someone is being somewhat overcautious, possibly at hospital policy level.

    Practically I have always been quite comfortable driving after a lunch post-appointment, or after a trip round the supermarket - so after 60 minutes. However, it has always been my practice since diagnosis around 2000 to have Reactions and anti-glare lenses to help manage circumstances, just as a passive safety thing. Also, I live close to the hospital (10 minutes) and would be very cautious if say I lived 40km away. Of course, this time of year is the worst for low dazzle from winter sun, which is why so many "slow-down, me?" people drive through pedestrians and cyclists they don't even see.

    Incidentally, I have my new two sets of glasses arriving this week, and they cost exactly what I said on here last year - £530 (£800 - £270 'discounts'). That's 2x £130 frames, both with ultrathin lenses, anti-glare, 4 way mobile hinges to 170 degrees, high end varifocal, one with reactions for external / driving, the other clear for indoors / computer. Specsavers always has one feature totally undiscounted, which is currently thinning, which is where they make the money. One hopes these will last several years.
    Yes, It sounds as if the nurse was over egging it substantially.

    The government guidance is here (section 2 being the applicable section, mydriasis means dilating drops for diagnostic purposes).

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/diabetic-eye-screening-patients-who-drive-to-appointments/diabetic-eye-screening-patients-who-drive-to-appointments

    As you can see in section 2.3 it is reasonable to wait until vision returns before driving. It varies a lot by individuals, but it is the drivers responsibility to ensure that they are fit to drive, not the nurse or other staff.
    Is it normal practice to ask, for such an appointment and before eye dilation to ask: "Did you drive to hospital?" ?

    This is afaicr, normal practice at my hospital.
    Reading the guidance, I see it does leave considerable room for clinical discretion to allow an individual to take a stronger policy, but OTOH does not mention cycling at all.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,717
    williamglenn said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
    Name me at least a dozen your ideal Reform cabinet in the event of 2028/9 election victory. You don't have to match them all to posts, but do cover the great offices of state, and you can put in a handful of Tories who look like good prospects to defect.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,716
    Nigelb said:

    Fare machines in public transport in Tbilisi play the phrases “Glory to Ukraine, Glory to Georgia, Fuck Russia”, “Putin is a dick”, chant “Sakartvelo”, “I am Georgian and therefore I am European” and other slogans and words that can be heard at protests in the Georgian capital.

    Tbilisi City Hall said that the validators have been temporarily turned off. During this period, transportation fare will be free...
    https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1882755140236587348P

    Putin has been illegally occupying Abkhazia and South Ossetia since 2008...
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,579
    It's not been a great year for Margaret Thatcher or Churchill either, has it?

    I'd be tearing my hair out about these word clouds if I was a Tory activist - they are HM loyal opposition but just not part of the conversation about who would be a good national leader.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,412
    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:


    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    FIRST

    (YES, I'M SHOUTING AT CLOUDS.)

    On topic: who is Lewis on the 2024 cloud?

    Sir Lewis to you.
    Apparently it's the other one.

    So says TSE, and lawyers never lie.
    There is only one.
    OK there is only one Sir Lewis (Hamilton), since the one in the cloud is not a Sir.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,332
    The word cloud shows one fundamental thing. The public being polled wants solutions to a number of well known problems but does not want to pay for them, and furthermore wants them a bit more quickly than is feasible anyway. Farage and Reform are the only outfit offering this (bogusly of course) who have not already recently been tried out. Just one year ago Labour and Starmer were in that pole position.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,226
    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:


    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    FIRST

    (YES, I'M SHOUTING AT CLOUDS.)

    On topic: who is Lewis on the 2024 cloud?

    Sir Lewis to you.
    Apparently it's the other one.

    So says TSE, and lawyers never lie.
    There is only one.
    Actually there are at least 2. Sir Martyn Lewis the news reader and Martin Lewis who cost the country billions of pounds by getting everyone panicking about their gas bills. I fear its the latter.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,623
    Pro_Rata said:

    williamglenn said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
    Name me at least a dozen your ideal Reform cabinet in the event of 2028/9 election victory. You don't have to match them all to posts, but do cover the great offices of state, and you can put in a handful of Tories who look like good prospects to defect.
    I can’t name a dozen people in the Actual Labour Government Cabinet, and i am a politics nerd, so this is maybe less of a gotcha than you think
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,794
    edited January 24
    Note though how Boris is almost as prominent in the word cloud now as Farage as to who would be voters ideal PM, with both now having eclipsed Starmer who has faded relative to before the 2024 GE. For all his faults had the Conservatives not removed Boris in 2022 he would probably have lost by a smaller margin than Rishi with Reform still under 10%, Farage not replacing Tice as their leader and Boris would now be heading for a big majority in the polls.

    Kemi may not be prominent at all but her party still outpolls her as Labour outpoll Starmer while Reform underperform Farage.

    So I expect the current trend of all 3 main parties in the 20-30% range to continue and a hung parliament, indeed it would probably need Reform to win around 30% with the Tories and Labour both on 20-25% for Reform to even win most seats let alone a majority

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,821
    Andy_JS said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    Trump is most popular with younger voters in the UK, and least popular with the oldest voters. Maybe the same thing will be true with Reform in the future.
    Isn’t Farage the most popular politician on TikTok in the UK, or some such?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,620
    I wonder if this will eventually make the new administration take bird flu seriously.

    The folks obsessively posting about egg prices for the past few years have gone strangely quiet just as egg prices hit an all-time high.
    https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/1882520828417323404
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,560
    algarkirk said:

    The word cloud shows one fundamental thing. The public being polled wants solutions to a number of well known problems but does not want to pay for them, and furthermore wants them a bit more quickly than is feasible anyway. Farage and Reform are the only outfit offering this (bogusly of course) who have not already recently been tried out. Just one year ago Labour and Starmer were in that pole position.

    Went out for a drink last night with a couple of neighbours. Bit younger than me, but not that much. One of them said that he'd been watching a lot of GB news "because he was fed up with the bias shown by the BBC and wanted the truth."
    He then went on about the amount of grooming of young girls by men of Pakistani origin.
    When he'd gone my remaining friend and I shook our heads sadly over hm.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,794
    williamglenn said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
    Reform are now the party of hard Brexiteers, the Tories of soft Brexiteers and Labour and the LDs of Remainers, the Brexit divide has realigned our politics, maybe for good
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,620
    The single issue polling from the US is fairly consistent in the way it fails to diverge from the party split.
    (With the possible exception of completely overturning the constitution.)

    Support For Leaving World Health Organization:

    Oppose: 50%
    Support: 49%

    AtlasIntel / Jan 23, 2025
    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1882610324530176036
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,794
    edited January 24
    Andy_JS said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    Trump is most popular with younger voters in the UK, and least popular with the oldest voters. Maybe the same thing will be true with Reform in the future.
    He still had net negatives with all of them though.

    It does match the trend nonetheless that while pensioners are generally conservative they also are most likely to vote against the far right and ultra nationalist right. Macron and his party polled best with pensioners against Le Pen and her party for instance, Le Pen polled best with 50-59 year olds. In Germany the Union still do best with pensioners but the AfD best with 35-44 year olds. Trump could only tie Harris with pensioners despite winning the popular vote this time, with Trump polling best with 45-65 year olds and here too the Tories do best with pensioners while Reform poll best with 55-64 year olds, like Trump Farage does especially well with middle aged men.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,226
    OldKingCole said:

    algarkirk said:

    The word cloud shows one fundamental thing. The public being polled wants solutions to a number of well known problems but does not want to pay for them, and furthermore wants them a bit more quickly than is feasible anyway. Farage and Reform are the only outfit offering this (bogusly of course) who have not already recently been tried out. Just one year ago Labour and Starmer were in that pole position.

    Went out for a drink last night with a couple of neighbours. Bit younger than me, but not that much. One of them said that he'd been watching a lot of GB news "because he was fed up with the bias shown by the BBC and wanted the truth."
    He then went on about the amount of grooming of young girls by men of Pakistani origin.
    When he'd gone my remaining friend and I shook our heads sadly over hm.
    Presumably your remaining friend is also on PB and knows we are not supposed to speak of such things.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,412
    edited January 24

    (Edited - we are walking the edge of allowed conversation, so I removed this.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
    Reform are now the party of hard Brexiteers, the Tories of soft Brexiteers and Labour and the LDs of Remainers, the Brexit divide has realigned our politics, maybe for good
    I agree with the realignment thesis, but in the latest YouGov, Labour only get 35% of 2016 Remainers and the more they try to compete with Reform to hold on to their working class base, the more they will alienate the kind of people who are still fighting the referendum.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,545
    Andy_JS said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    Trump is most popular with younger voters in the UK, and least popular with the oldest voters. Maybe the same thing will be true with Reform in the future.
    "Young" is just a proxy here for "get their news from TikTok"
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,426
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Stuff like this turns me from an unabashed free marketeer into a raging socialist.

    Severn Trent to raise dividends as water bills rise by 47%

    The water company told investors payouts would increase by the CPIH inflation rate after it was allowed to increase bills

    Severn Trent has told its shareholders that they can expect an annual increase in dividends at the the Bank of England’s preferred rate of inflation after recently winning one of the biggest increases in customer bills in the country.

    The water company, the second largest in the country behind Thames Water, supplying 8 million people, accepted a five-year funding settlement with Ofwat on Friday.

    The regional water monopoly said it would accept a deal that will result in annual bills in the region increasing by 47 per cent between now and spring 2030 to £583 from the current average of £398. Annual bills will be even higher when accounting for inflation.

    During the next five years of price increases, Severn Trent is forecasting that one in six households in its region will have to have financial support to pay their bills, a programme in which the rest of the local population pay a surcharge to make others’ bills affordable.

    https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/severn-trent-to-raise-dividends-as-water-bills-rise-by-47-percent-ntg5j2bbb

    It's time to regulate the water industry into bankruptcy and nationalise it. There is no upside to private ownership of monopoly utility providers.
    The water companies are largely insolvent, and have based their business model on privatising profits, and nationalising losses.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    Labour will be a one-term government.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,821
    OldKingCole said:

    algarkirk said:

    The word cloud shows one fundamental thing. The public being polled wants solutions to a number of well known problems but does not want to pay for them, and furthermore wants them a bit more quickly than is feasible anyway. Farage and Reform are the only outfit offering this (bogusly of course) who have not already recently been tried out. Just one year ago Labour and Starmer were in that pole position.

    Went out for a drink last night with a couple of neighbours. Bit younger than me, but not that much. One of them said that he'd been watching a lot of GB news "because he was fed up with the bias shown by the BBC and wanted the truth."
    He then went on about the amount of grooming of young girls by men of Pakistani origin.
    When he'd gone my remaining friend and I shook our heads sadly over hm.
    As time goes by, more and more people are turning away from the traditional media and they are adopting a more radical mindset. There’s not one person, idea or ideology responsible for this - a lot of this lies with populists, the internet, the errors the traditional media organisations have made, the wider establishment, etc, etc.

    I am afraid I do think the right in this country will be largely swallowed by this ‘movement’, for want of a better term. Whether it takes the Tory Party with it or the Tory Party becomes the face of it - that is still an open question.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,426
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    All things come to an end. If the Conservatives have stopped fulfilling a political purpose, then they should exit the stage.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,821
    edited January 24
    Casino_Royale said:

    Labour will be a one-term government.

    I am not convinced we can confidently predict that, at this stage. I certainly think a Labour led government could continue.

    At the moment I think it looks very unlikely any party will be able to form a majority government next time. It would be a brave person to predict the fragmentation of our politics will have resolved itself in time for the next GE.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,794
    Sean_F said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    All things come to an end. If the Conservatives have stopped fulfilling a political purpose, then they should exit the stage.
    Problem is at least a third of current Tory voters would vote LD over Reform, only about 2/3 would go Reform.

    So the Tories disappearing doesn't necessarily help the right overall and wouldn't make a Reform majority much closer
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,794
    Casino_Royale said:

    Labour will be a one-term government.

    As a majority yes, though most polls have them staying in office in a hung parliament if they can get LD support
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,620
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    All things come to an end. If the Conservatives have stopped fulfilling a political purpose, then they should exit the stage.
    Problem is at least a third of current Tory voters would vote LD over Reform, only about 2/3 would go Reform.

    So the Tories disappearing doesn't necessarily help the right overall and wouldn't make a Reform majority much closer
    Is that a problem ?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,811
    Funny not funny email received - I won't go into detail - which highlights the utter incompetence and idiocy of our new border processes.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,550
    Casino_Royale said:

    Labour will be a one-term government.

    I don't know- I think you have all sorts of terms for them.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,545
    Anyway, thank God Trump was elected and the war in Ukraine has been over for 3 days.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,794
    kamski said:

    Anyway, thank God Trump was elected and the war in Ukraine has been over for 3 days.

    Well the war in Gaza has been over for 3 days at least
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,721
    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Labour will be a one-term government.

    As a majority yes, though most polls have them staying in office in a hung parliament if they can get LD support
    The problem is, a Labour Party booted out by the voters means the LibDems would be toxic if voting for them meant keeping Labour in power.

    They may have to go shit or bust - Prime Minister or nothing. Which didn't play so well when last tried by them...

    Or maybe a coalition with Farage.

    You can see their problem.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,794
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    All things come to an end. If the Conservatives have stopped fulfilling a political purpose, then they should exit the stage.
    Problem is at least a third of current Tory voters would vote LD over Reform, only about 2/3 would go Reform.

    So the Tories disappearing doesn't necessarily help the right overall and wouldn't make a Reform majority much closer
    Is that a problem ?
    If you are populist right, for the Tories can reach some well off middle class voters who would not vote Labour but think Reform are a bunch of oiks and would vote LD if the Conservatives weren't still an option
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,267
    kamski said:

    Anyway, thank God Trump was elected and the war in Ukraine has been over for 3 days.

    Interesting. Hitherto the thought was always that Trump would either sell out Ukraine and leave Vlad triumphant or terrorize Vlad into backing off. What if neither happens and the war continues leaving Trump ignored, impotent and diminished?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,635
    williamglenn said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
    The polling does not suggest that (yet). It's primarily Conservative voters and GE '24 non-voters.

    That's why I'm fairly confident that the Labour vote share would be higher with Farage as the main challenger than Badenoch. But they would be much less efficient, with lefty votes piling up in the outraged cities and lots of Reform/Labour marginals in the north.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,545
    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    Anyway, thank God Trump was elected and the war in Ukraine has been over for 3 days.

    Well the war in Gaza has been over for 3 days at least
    I thought that ended under Biden?

    Anyway, I haven't actually looked up the terms of the brilliant Ukraine deal that Trump made happen, all I need to know is that he finished the war within 24 hours like he promised.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,794
    edited January 24
    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Labour will be a one-term government.

    As a majority yes, though most polls have them staying in office in a hung parliament if they can get LD support
    The problem is, a Labour Party booted out by the voters means the LibDems would be toxic if voting for them meant keeping Labour in power.

    They may have to go shit or bust - Prime Minister or nothing. Which didn't play so well when last tried by them...

    Or maybe a coalition with Farage.

    You can see their problem.
    The LDs would never touch Farage, they would rather deal with the Tories again than him, though yes a Labour minority government propped up by the LDs would not be a bad outcome for Tory candidates in LD held home counties seats certainly
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,981
    MattW said:


    (Edited - we are walking the edge of allowed conversation, so I removed this.)

    Look its just a hair colour, I don't see the issue.


    (Oh, not THAT topic!)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
    The polling does not suggest that (yet). It's primarily Conservative voters and GE '24 non-voters.

    That's why I'm fairly confident that the Labour vote share would be higher with Farage as the main challenger than Badenoch. But they would be much less efficient, with lefty votes piling up in the outraged cities and lots of Reform/Labour marginals in the north.
    The long-term trend is disguised by the Boris landslide in 2019 which means that a lot of the people who look like Tory -> Reform switchers on paper are actually former Labour voters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,794
    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
    The polling does not suggest that (yet). It's primarily Conservative voters and GE '24 non-voters.

    That's why I'm fairly confident that the Labour vote share would be higher with Farage as the main challenger than Badenoch. But they would be much less efficient, with lefty votes piling up in the outraged cities and lots of Reform/Labour marginals in the north.
    Labour have lost voters to Reform as well as the Greens, LDs and even the Tories since the GE
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,551
    Bill Kristol, having talked to some immigration lawyers and experts, thinks the citizen birthright amendment change/by-pass/overthrow is a "loss leader" so that more subtle stuff can pass through unnoticed by media.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,794
    williamglenn said:

    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
    The polling does not suggest that (yet). It's primarily Conservative voters and GE '24 non-voters.

    That's why I'm fairly confident that the Labour vote share would be higher with Farage as the main challenger than Badenoch. But they would be much less efficient, with lefty votes piling up in the outraged cities and lots of Reform/Labour marginals in the north.
    The long-term trend is disguised by the Boris landslide in 2019 which means that a lot of the people who look like Tory -> Reform switchers on paper are actually former Labour voters.
    Especially in the redwall seats which is where Labour to Reform switching has been highest, Boris was the only Tory such voters would vote for but they like Farage
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,620
    rottenborough said:

    Bill Kristol, having talked to some immigration lawyers and experts, thinks the citizen birthright amendment change/by-pass/overthrow is a "loss leader" so that more subtle stuff can pass through unnoticed by media.

    Subtle ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,967
    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    Anyway, thank God Trump was elected and the war in Ukraine has been over for 3 days.

    Well the war in Gaza has been over for 3 days at least
    I thought that ended under Biden?

    Anyway, I haven't actually looked up the terms of the brilliant Ukraine deal that Trump made happen, all I need to know is that he finished the war within 24 hours like he promised.
    If it can't be done by "Executive Order" (ie requiring neither political skill nor hard work) it won't be happening.

    I think that's a fair rule of thumb for president Donald J Trump.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,723
    edited January 24
    numbertwelve said:

    Andy_JS said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    Trump is most popular with younger voters in the UK, and least popular with the oldest voters. Maybe the same thing will be true with Reform in the future.
    Isn’t Farage the most popular politician on TikTok in the UK, or some such?
    He has a lot of followers, but we don't know how many are in the UK.

    Currently 1.1 million for Farage

    Next most popular is Zara Sultana on 450 000 I think. Corbyn has 167 000

    Trump has 15 million, Kamala 9.2 million, AOC 2.1 million

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,620
    And these are the relatively crappy first generation models.

    Electric cars in UK last as long as petrol and diesel vehicles, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/24/electric-cars-lifespans-reach-those-of-petrol-and-diesel-vehicles-in-uk
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,635
    edited January 24
    williamglenn said:

    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
    The polling does not suggest that (yet). It's primarily Conservative voters and GE '24 non-voters.

    That's why I'm fairly confident that the Labour vote share would be higher with Farage as the main challenger than Badenoch. But they would be much less efficient, with lefty votes piling up in the outraged cities and lots of Reform/Labour marginals in the north.
    The long-term trend is disguised by the Boris landslide in 2019 which means that a lot of the people who look like Tory -> Reform switchers on paper are actually former Labour voters.
    No, this poll was of GE '24 Conservative voters, not '19. I'll try and fish it out.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,644
    Nigelb said:

    I wonder if this will eventually make the new administration take bird flu seriously.

    The folks obsessively posting about egg prices for the past few years have gone strangely quiet just as egg prices hit an all-time high.
    https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/1882520828417323404

    It should egg them on...
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,545
    Stark_Dawning said:

    kamski said:

    Anyway, thank God Trump was elected and the war in Ukraine has been over for 3 days.

    Interesting. Hitherto the thought was always that Trump would either sell out Ukraine and leave Vlad triumphant or terrorize Vlad into backing off. What if neither happens and the war continues leaving Trump ignored, impotent and diminished?
    From Trump's recent comments it seems like he actually knows nothing at all about the war, and never had even the sketchiest plan of how to end it. Hopefully he'll listen more to his Secretary of State Rubio, rather than people like national intelligence director nominee and Putin stooge Gabbard
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,644
    These word clouds are good for the Leader Of The Opposition Nigel Farage. What happened to that nice Kemi Badenoch? She used to be in the news. Is she having a holiday?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,723
    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    I wonder if this will eventually make the new administration take bird flu seriously.

    The folks obsessively posting about egg prices for the past few years have gone strangely quiet just as egg prices hit an all-time high.
    https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/1882520828417323404

    It should egg them on...
    It's no yolk that bird flu is now closing down a lot of egg farms.

    Still, with RFK, the CDC and WHO all watching the situation, we have nothing to worry about.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,635
    edited January 24
    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
    The polling does not suggest that (yet). It's primarily Conservative voters and GE '24 non-voters.

    That's why I'm fairly confident that the Labour vote share would be higher with Farage as the main challenger than Badenoch. But they would be much less efficient, with lefty votes piling up in the outraged cities and lots of Reform/Labour marginals in the north.
    The long-term trend is disguised by the Boris landslide in 2019 which means that a lot of the people who look like Tory -> Reform switchers on paper are actually former Labour voters.
    No, this poll was of GE '24 Conservative voters, not '19. I'll try and fish it out.
    YouGov:

    5% of '24 Lab voters would now vote Reform
    15% Con
    6% LD
    87% Reform

    The only age group the Conservatives are beating Reform in is 65+.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,202
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:


    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    FIRST

    (YES, I'M SHOUTING AT CLOUDS.)

    On topic: who is Lewis on the 2024 cloud?

    Sir Lewis to you.
    Apparently it's the other one.

    So says TSE, and lawyers never lie.
    There is only one.
    Actually there are at least 2. Sir Martyn Lewis the news reader and Martin Lewis who cost the country billions of pounds by getting everyone panicking about their gas bills. I fear its the latter.
    He was a friend of mine before he got all famous!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    Casino_Royale said:

    Labour will be a one-term government.

    I think Labour will be at least a two term government, unless something changes. It's difficult for either Reform or the Conservatives to be largest party as long as they split the votes on the right. It's also difficult for the two parties to create a voting coalition before the election.

    By default in that case, Labour will continue to have more seats than any other party and can form a government from there, even if it no longer has a majority.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,202
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
    The polling does not suggest that (yet). It's primarily Conservative voters and GE '24 non-voters.

    That's why I'm fairly confident that the Labour vote share would be higher with Farage as the main challenger than Badenoch. But they would be much less efficient, with lefty votes piling up in the outraged cities and lots of Reform/Labour marginals in the north.
    The long-term trend is disguised by the Boris landslide in 2019 which means that a lot of the people who look like Tory -> Reform switchers on paper are actually former Labour voters.
    No, this poll was of GE '24 Conservative voters, not '19. I'll try and fish it out.
    YouGov:

    5% of '24 Lab voters would now vote Reform
    15% Con
    6% LD
    87% Reform
    PLEASE STOP BRINGING FACTS INTO THE DISCUSSION.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,418
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    They have a good track record of winning elections, and a poor track record of what they do when they get into power. That has caught up with them.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,821
    edited January 24
    turbotubbs said:

    OldKingCole said:

    algarkirk said:

    The word cloud shows one fundamental thing. The public being polled wants solutions to a number of well known problems but does not want to pay for them, and furthermore wants them a bit more quickly than is feasible anyway. Farage and Reform are the only outfit offering this (bogusly of course) who have not already recently been tried out. Just one year ago Labour and Starmer were in that pole position.

    Went out for a drink last night with a couple of neighbours. Bit younger than me, but not that much. One of them said that he'd been watching a lot of GB news "because he was fed up with the bias shown by the BBC and wanted the truth."
    He then went on about the amount of grooming of young girls by men of Pakistani origin.
    When he'd gone my remaining friend and I shook our heads sadly over hm.
    I work at Uni and I am surrounded by people who mostly vote Labour or Lib Dem. Hard to find a Tory (or at least someone who would admit to it). It leads people who work here to believe that the whole country thinks as they do and so the shock at Brexit, and when Corbyn lost in 2019 etc is profound. The lack of engagement with 'normal people' feeds into this.

    PB is rather like this. We have some who are not of the herd, but most are rather similar in views/beliefs. We are lucky that there are some outspoken outliers, otherwise we would be even more of an echo chamber than BSkyBBlueSky or whatever its called.

    I'm not surprised at your neighbours attitudes. Lots of people think as they do. And currently they are flocking to Reform.
    I would say this site skews towards professional, managerial, AB Class individuals. In the time I’ve been on this site I think the prevailing wind when it comes to views and debate has shifted very much in line with how that class appears to have shifted (quite significantly leftwards on cultural topics, a slight nudge leftwards on economics).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,202
    FF43 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Labour will be a one-term government.

    I think Labour will be at least a two term government, unless something changes. It's difficult for either Reform or the Conservatives to be largest party as long as they split the votes on the right. It's also difficult for the two parties to create a voting coalition before the election.

    By default in that case, Labour will continue to have more seats than any other party and can form a government from there, even if it no longer has a majority.
    I think this is broadly right:

    Con + Ref could well top L + LD + G, but the last three decades have honed the Centre Left vote to a level where it is highly efficient, which is simply not true on the Right.

    That will change: but it'll take a couple of electoral cycles.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    FF43 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Labour will be a one-term government.

    I think Labour will be at least a two term government, unless something changes.
    Something has changed.

    It'd called the voters.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,418
    edited January 24
    Malmesbury said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Taz said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "International law is preventing the UK from giving teenage killers such as Axel Rudakubana whole life orders, a Cabinet minister has said.

    John Healey, the Defence Secretary, suggested that the UN convention on children’s rights stops Britain from being able to impose unlimited sentences on under-18s."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/24/international-law-whole-life-sentence-rudakubana-healey/

    Heaven preserve us from grandstanding politicians. Rudakubana drew a 52-year minimum which is enough to be getting on with. Ministers pontificating on sentences and knife sales and widening definitions just masks the real issues around what to do about non-terrorist dangers.
    That kid was bang out of order. Fairly decent chance of getting fucked up inside anyway, I would have thought.
    Well exactly. Unless he's going into solitary, he has a very high likelihood of a very unpleasant time.
    Absolutely.

    Sara Sharif’s Dad has already been the recipient of prison ‘justice’

    Still it's not a sign of great health in our polity that we're half-hoping for someone to get illegally shanked in prison to dispense proper justice.
    Whose the "we"?

    He's been locked up, nearly certainly, for the rest of his life.

    I'm not impressed by the idea of one nutter murdering or injuring another nutter to prove some version of dominance. That just sounds like more scumbaggery.
    In principle I agree. However, I would admit at present I would find the news of him experiencing some unexpected misfortune in gaol quite easy to bear. I'm not proud of that fact but there it is.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    williamglenn said:

    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
    The polling does not suggest that (yet). It's primarily Conservative voters and GE '24 non-voters.

    That's why I'm fairly confident that the Labour vote share would be higher with Farage as the main challenger than Badenoch. But they would be much less efficient, with lefty votes piling up in the outraged cities and lots of Reform/Labour marginals in the north.
    The long-term trend is disguised by the Boris landslide in 2019 which means that a lot of the people who look like Tory -> Reform switchers on paper are actually former Labour voters.
    They voted Labour to get rid of the Tories, out of frustration at them, but there wasn't a values shift.

    They've moved to the Right and have stayed on the Right.
  • A_View_From_Cumbria5A_View_From_Cumbria5 Posts: 667
    DavidL said:

    OldKingCole said:

    algarkirk said:

    The word cloud shows one fundamental thing. The public being polled wants solutions to a number of well known problems but does not want to pay for them, and furthermore wants them a bit more quickly than is feasible anyway. Farage and Reform are the only outfit offering this (bogusly of course) who have not already recently been tried out. Just one year ago Labour and Starmer were in that pole position.

    Went out for a drink last night with a couple of neighbours. Bit younger than me, but not that much. One of them said that he'd been watching a lot of GB news "because he was fed up with the bias shown by the BBC and wanted the truth."
    He then went on about the amount of grooming of young girls by men of Pakistani origin.
    When he'd gone my remaining friend and I shook our heads sadly over hm.
    Presumably your remaining friend is also on PB and knows we are not supposed to speak of such things.
    I'm sure Starmer would like to ban GBNews and Talk for that matter, all in the name of free speech, such is the warped ideology of the Marxist left. He will have to ban Smart TVs to do that, the Apps on new ones are an order of magnitude better than they were 10 years ago.

    Amusingly the Beeb has barely noticed no one is watching their shite anymore. They could have been World leaders but instead chose to go down the branded player route. Well sorry if IPlayer doesn't work when I am abroad I watch GBNews, a company that wants me to watch their product and doesn't charge me £169 a year for not looking at Gary Linaker.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,723
    edited January 24
    turbotubbs said:

    OldKingCole said:

    algarkirk said:

    The word cloud shows one fundamental thing. The public being polled wants solutions to a number of well known problems but does not want to pay for them, and furthermore wants them a bit more quickly than is feasible anyway. Farage and Reform are the only outfit offering this (bogusly of course) who have not already recently been tried out. Just one year ago Labour and Starmer were in that pole position.

    Went out for a drink last night with a couple of neighbours. Bit younger than me, but not that much. One of them said that he'd been watching a lot of GB news "because he was fed up with the bias shown by the BBC and wanted the truth."
    He then went on about the amount of grooming of young girls by men of Pakistani origin.
    When he'd gone my remaining friend and I shook our heads sadly over hm.
    I work at Uni and I am surrounded by people who mostly vote Labour or Lib Dem. Hard to find a Tory (or at least someone who would admit to it). It leads people who work here to believe that the whole country thinks as they do and so the shock at Brexit, and when Corbyn lost in 2019 etc is profound. The lack of engagement with 'normal people' feeds into this.

    PB is rather like this. We have some who are not of the herd, but most are rather similar in views/beliefs. We are lucky that there are some outspoken outliers, otherwise we would be even more of an echo chamber than BSkyBBlueSky or whatever its called.

    I'm not surprised at your neighbours attitudes. Lots of people think as they do. And currently they are flocking to Reform.
    I had lunch today with my secretary, the ward cleaner and a porter. I think my secretary has always been Tory, but none of the 3 could stand Starmer.

    The big grievance is the WFP. So it looks as if they all want a government that doles out more spending. Complaints too that the Minimum wage increase is affecting wage differentials. They were all seeing new trainee staff starting at or close to their pay, despite being required to train and supervise them.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,550
    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
    The polling does not suggest that (yet). It's primarily Conservative voters and GE '24 non-voters.

    That's why I'm fairly confident that the Labour vote share would be higher with Farage as the main challenger than Badenoch. But they would be much less efficient, with lefty votes piling up in the outraged cities and lots of Reform/Labour marginals in the north.
    The long-term trend is disguised by the Boris landslide in 2019 which means that a lot of the people who look like Tory -> Reform switchers on paper are actually former Labour voters.
    No, this poll was of GE '24 Conservative voters, not '19. I'll try and fish it out.
    YouGov:

    5% of '24 Lab voters would now vote Reform
    15% Con
    6% LD
    87% Reform
    PLEASE STOP BRINGING FACTS INTO THE DISCUSSION.
    How about beautiful charts?



    https://bsky.app/profile/dylandifford.bsky.social/post/3lcsdqpnuy22k

    It's that stack of Lab 2024 - Don't Know now voters that is critical for GE2028/9. And I doubt that most of them know what they will do yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,794
    edited January 24
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
    The polling does not suggest that (yet). It's primarily Conservative voters and GE '24 non-voters.

    That's why I'm fairly confident that the Labour vote share would be higher with Farage as the main challenger than Badenoch. But they would be much less efficient, with lefty votes piling up in the outraged cities and lots of Reform/Labour marginals in the north.
    The long-term trend is disguised by the Boris landslide in 2019 which means that a lot of the people who look like Tory -> Reform switchers on paper are actually former Labour voters.
    No, this poll was of GE '24 Conservative voters, not '19. I'll try and fish it out.
    YouGov:

    5% of '24 Lab voters would now vote Reform
    15% Con
    6% LD
    87% Reform

    The only age group the Conservatives are beating Reform in is 65+.
    Latest Yougov (excluding DKs) has Labour retaining 69% of its 2024 vote with 7% going Reform.

    Tories and Reform are first and second with over 65s, the LDs are third and Labour fourth with pensioners and Reform and the Tories are tied with over 50s with Labour third

    Tories are ahead of Reform, just, with 18-24s but Reform are ahead of the Tories with 25-49s

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/VotingIntention_MRP_250120.pdf
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    Casino_Royale said:

    FF43 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Labour will be a one-term government.

    I think Labour will be at least a two term government, unless something changes.
    Something has changed.

    It'd called the voters.
    So you think the Conservative vote has permanently collapsed? I'm not seeing that in the opinion polls.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,644
    numbertwelve said:

    turbotubbs said:

    OldKingCole said:

    algarkirk said:

    The word cloud shows one fundamental thing. The public being polled wants solutions to a number of well known problems but does not want to pay for them, and furthermore wants them a bit more quickly than is feasible anyway. Farage and Reform are the only outfit offering this (bogusly of course) who have not already recently been tried out. Just one year ago Labour and Starmer were in that pole position.

    Went out for a drink last night with a couple of neighbours. Bit younger than me, but not that much. One of them said that he'd been watching a lot of GB news "because he was fed up with the bias shown by the BBC and wanted the truth."
    He then went on about the amount of grooming of young girls by men of Pakistani origin.
    When he'd gone my remaining friend and I shook our heads sadly over hm.
    I work at Uni and I am surrounded by people who mostly vote Labour or Lib Dem. Hard to find a Tory (or at least someone who would admit to it). It leads people who work here to believe that the whole country thinks as they do and so the shock at Brexit, and when Corbyn lost in 2019 etc is profound. The lack of engagement with 'normal people' feeds into this.

    PB is rather like this. We have some who are not of the herd, but most are rather similar in views/beliefs. We are lucky that there are some outspoken outliers, otherwise we would be even more of an echo chamber than BSkyBBlueSky or whatever its called.

    I'm not surprised at your neighbours attitudes. Lots of people think as they do. And currently they are flocking to Reform.
    I would say this site skews towards professional, managerial, AB Class individuals. In the time I’ve been on this site I think the prevailing wind when it comes to views and debate has shifted very much in line with how that class appears to have shifted (quite significantly leftwards on cultural topics, a slight nudge leftwards on economics).
    Let's shift it further left economically

    "Politicians claim countries must be run like households, and that’s completely wrong." Richard J Murphy, YouTube, 23Jan2025, 13 mins, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FZmhyKkFdU
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,967
    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    Anyway, thank God Trump was elected and the war in Ukraine has been over for 3 days.

    Well the war in Gaza has been over for 3 days at least
    Israel will be resuming hostilities pretty soon, I fear. The idea their security is best served by further oppressing and colonising seems to have taken hold.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,635
    edited January 24
    Casino_Royale said:

    williamglenn said:

    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
    The polling does not suggest that (yet). It's primarily Conservative voters and GE '24 non-voters.

    That's why I'm fairly confident that the Labour vote share would be higher with Farage as the main challenger than Badenoch. But they would be much less efficient, with lefty votes piling up in the outraged cities and lots of Reform/Labour marginals in the north.
    The long-term trend is disguised by the Boris landslide in 2019 which means that a lot of the people who look like Tory -> Reform switchers on paper are actually former Labour voters.
    They voted Labour to get rid of the Tories, out of frustration at them, but there wasn't a values shift.

    They've moved to the Right and have stayed on the Right.
    This is wrong too. Labour GE '24 voters are now:

    54% Labour (which is dreadful)
    5% Reform
    4% Conservative
    7% LD
    6% Green

    21% are don't know or would not vote. That's the crucial chunk; with Badenoch they could go Tory. With Farage...
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,545
    FF43 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Labour will be a one-term government.

    I think Labour will be at least a two term government, unless something changes. It's difficult for either Reform or the Conservatives to be largest party as long as they split the votes on the right. It's also difficult for the two parties to create a voting coalition before the election.

    By default in that case, Labour will continue to have more seats than any other party and can form a government from there, even if it no longer has a majority.
    That's possible, also possible that in 4 years time people will have forgotten how shit the tories were and the Conservatives will get a majority. They'd probably need to have a fresh untainted leader, and appeal to Reform voters on "controlling the border" - this might involve repudiating the last Conservative government letting in record numbers of immigrants. They've got the perfect fall guy to pin the blame on - Boris Johnson, who once said

    “I’m probably about the only politician I know of who is actually willing to stand up and say that he’s pro-immigration.”
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
    The polling does not suggest that (yet). It's primarily Conservative voters and GE '24 non-voters.

    That's why I'm fairly confident that the Labour vote share would be higher with Farage as the main challenger than Badenoch. But they would be much less efficient, with lefty votes piling up in the outraged cities and lots of Reform/Labour marginals in the north.
    The long-term trend is disguised by the Boris landslide in 2019 which means that a lot of the people who look like Tory -> Reform switchers on paper are actually former Labour voters.
    No, this poll was of GE '24 Conservative voters, not '19. I'll try and fish it out.
    YouGov:

    5% of '24 Lab voters would now vote Reform
    15% Con
    6% LD
    87% Reform
    PLEASE STOP BRINGING FACTS INTO THE DISCUSSION.
    You misspelt subsamples.

    On the latest YouGov it's 7% of '24 Lab voters and 17% of '24 Tory voters, but crucially, Reform get 30% of C2DE voters compared with only 23% for Labour.

    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/VotingIntention_MRP_250120.pdf
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,723
    Casino_Royale said:

    williamglenn said:

    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
    The polling does not suggest that (yet). It's primarily Conservative voters and GE '24 non-voters.

    That's why I'm fairly confident that the Labour vote share would be higher with Farage as the main challenger than Badenoch. But they would be much less efficient, with lefty votes piling up in the outraged cities and lots of Reform/Labour marginals in the north.
    The long-term trend is disguised by the Boris landslide in 2019 which means that a lot of the people who look like Tory -> Reform switchers on paper are actually former Labour voters.
    They voted Labour to get rid of the Tories, out of frustration at them, but there wasn't a values shift.

    They've moved to the Right and have stayed on the Right.
    Possibly right on social issues, but they want more spending on them and their communities.

    These are not free market Libertarians.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,635
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
    The polling does not suggest that (yet). It's primarily Conservative voters and GE '24 non-voters.

    That's why I'm fairly confident that the Labour vote share would be higher with Farage as the main challenger than Badenoch. But they would be much less efficient, with lefty votes piling up in the outraged cities and lots of Reform/Labour marginals in the north.
    The long-term trend is disguised by the Boris landslide in 2019 which means that a lot of the people who look like Tory -> Reform switchers on paper are actually former Labour voters.
    No, this poll was of GE '24 Conservative voters, not '19. I'll try and fish it out.
    YouGov:

    5% of '24 Lab voters would now vote Reform
    15% Con
    6% LD
    87% Reform

    The only age group the Conservatives are beating Reform in is 65+.
    Latest Yougov (excluding DKs) has Labour retaining 69% of its 2024 vote with 7% going Reform.

    Tories and Reform are first and second with over 65s, the LDs are third and Labour fourth with pensioners and Reform and the Tories are tied with over 50s with Labour third

    Tories are ahead of Reform, just, with 18-24s but Reform are ahead of the Tories with 25-49s

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/VotingIntention_MRP_250120.pdf
    That's broadly consistent with the prior polling, excluding don't knows and will not vote. 17% Tory vote to Reform v 7% of Labour's.
  • A_View_From_Cumbria5A_View_From_Cumbria5 Posts: 667
    williamglenn said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
    In many ways it is an action replay of France since about 2012. Remember France has a PR system which is less PR that FPTP by a long way. Anderson is much more telegenic that Farage. But the idea that it can be a commonplace on boards like this that the Right divided means more Marxism and it not be noticed either by the Conservatives or by Reform at a higher level is naive, and wrong.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Foxy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    williamglenn said:

    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    The eclipse of the Tories by Reform will be very bad news for the right in this country, IMHO. The Tories has the most successful track record of any political party in Europe, while Reform are a ragtag collection of loonies and closet racists with an unfortunate record of attracting unsavoury candidates who depend completely on a single, ageing, politician for their popularity.

    You’re in denial. Reform are taking the working class vote away from Labour and they’ve become much more than a Farage vehicle.
    The polling does not suggest that (yet). It's primarily Conservative voters and GE '24 non-voters.

    That's why I'm fairly confident that the Labour vote share would be higher with Farage as the main challenger than Badenoch. But they would be much less efficient, with lefty votes piling up in the outraged cities and lots of Reform/Labour marginals in the north.
    The long-term trend is disguised by the Boris landslide in 2019 which means that a lot of the people who look like Tory -> Reform switchers on paper are actually former Labour voters.
    They voted Labour to get rid of the Tories, out of frustration at them, but there wasn't a values shift.

    They've moved to the Right and have stayed on the Right.
    Possibly right on social issues, but they want more spending on them and their communities.

    These are not free market Libertarians.
    Free market fundamentalism is now a core belief most commonly held on the centre-left. These are the people who think that you can't possibly inhibit international trade or the movement of workers without the sky falling in.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,981
    Foxy said:

    turbotubbs said:

    OldKingCole said:

    algarkirk said:

    The word cloud shows one fundamental thing. The public being polled wants solutions to a number of well known problems but does not want to pay for them, and furthermore wants them a bit more quickly than is feasible anyway. Farage and Reform are the only outfit offering this (bogusly of course) who have not already recently been tried out. Just one year ago Labour and Starmer were in that pole position.

    Went out for a drink last night with a couple of neighbours. Bit younger than me, but not that much. One of them said that he'd been watching a lot of GB news "because he was fed up with the bias shown by the BBC and wanted the truth."
    He then went on about the amount of grooming of young girls by men of Pakistani origin.
    When he'd gone my remaining friend and I shook our heads sadly over hm.
    I work at Uni and I am surrounded by people who mostly vote Labour or Lib Dem. Hard to find a Tory (or at least someone who would admit to it). It leads people who work here to believe that the whole country thinks as they do and so the shock at Brexit, and when Corbyn lost in 2019 etc is profound. The lack of engagement with 'normal people' feeds into this.

    PB is rather like this. We have some who are not of the herd, but most are rather similar in views/beliefs. We are lucky that there are some outspoken outliers, otherwise we would be even more of an echo chamber than BSkyBBlueSky or whatever its called.

    I'm not surprised at your neighbours attitudes. Lots of people think as they do. And currently they are flocking to Reform.
    I had lunch today with my secretary, the ward cleaner and a porter. I think my secretary has always been Tory, but none of the 3 could stand Starmer.

    The big grievance is the WFP. So it looks as if they all want a government that doles out more spending. Complaints too that the Minimum wage increase is affecting wage differentials. They were all seeing new trainee staff starting at or close to their pay, despite being required to train and supervise them.
    Increases in minimum wage are good for those on them but we have seen massive pay restraint in the NHS and also at Uni - and this does erode the idea of a pay scale and advancement.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Labour will be a one-term government.

    I think Labour will be at least a two term government, unless something changes. It's difficult for either Reform or the Conservatives to be largest party as long as they split the votes on the right. It's also difficult for the two parties to create a voting coalition before the election.

    By default in that case, Labour will continue to have more seats than any other party and can form a government from there, even if it no longer has a majority.
    I think this is broadly right:

    Con + Ref could well top L + LD + G, but the last three decades have honed the Centre Left vote to a level where it is highly efficient, which is simply not true on the Right.

    That will change: but it'll take a couple of electoral cycles.
    There's a question whether Con + Ref will grow significantly beyond 45% to 48%, which is up from the historically low number at the 2024 general election but was normal polling before that.
This discussion has been closed.

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