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What’s this polling going to look like by the end of Trump’s second term? – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • stjohn said:

    On energy storage. If batteries for energy storage are now really cheap, as I keep reading here, why don't we all have one installed at our individual homes and then the national grid can download all the excess energy to our homes when its windy or the sun is shining - which we then use when it's not windy or sunny?

    That’s the long term plan.

    I have my own battery now, with a two rate smart meter, and panels, so I am very rarely paying for full rate electricity.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    Barnesian said:

    On Heathrow we travelled to Euston, then taxi to Paddington, then Heathrow express to Heathrow

    Only 15 minutes to and from Airport from London

    The strategic decision on whether to expand Heathrow or Gatwick shouldn't really be based on your own personal convenience! I'm sure you'll agree.
    The cab from Euston to Paddington could take quite a while now all the rat-runs have been blocked.
    There is something called the Tube though, just don't take too much luggage (and with respect to BGNW's age as I recall he's getting on a bit and may not be up to fighting with the Tube)
    The Elizabeth Line has made travelling to Heathrow much easier and quicker - especially if you're on Thameslink - which of course also serves Gatwick. Ah the days of Piccadilly Line to Barons Court, District Line to Blackfriars all step free to the station platform. Now its a simple transfer at Farringdon.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,712
    edited January 23

    On Heathrow we travelled to Euston, then taxi to Paddington, then Heathrow express to Heathrow

    Only 15 minutes to or from Airport from London

    Well, you could whizz down on the tube from Euston to Victoria and then get the Gatwick Express. Very quick.
    And think of all the money you'd have saved on taxi fares.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,466

    stjohn said:

    On energy storage. If batteries for energy storage are now really cheap, as I keep reading here, why don't we all have one installed at our individual homes and then the national grid can download all the excess energy to our homes when its windy or the sun is shining - which we then use when it's not windy or sunny?

    Because they are bloody dangerous
    You can buy various home power storage solutions right now. Such as the Tesla one.

    Most can run a home for a few hours.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    edited January 23
    TimS said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Barnesian said:

    Good morning

    Reeves wants a third runway at Heathrow and Kemi needs to support this 100%

    It is exactly what should be at the forefront of any growth agenda

    Mind you, Khan and Burnham with others will be furious but the interesting one is Starmer who has opposed this as well, but with Starmer he will just change his position once again which would be no surprise

    Gatwick can be expanded to the same extent for an estimated £2b - 10% of the cost of a third runway at Heathrow and far quicker. That is why airlines are opposed to a third runway at Heathrow. And they aren't Nimbys.

    It is argued that Gatwick isn't a hub airport but the strong trend is to point to point. A third runway at Heathrow wouldn't be operational until the mid 2030s.

    I think there is a knee jerk anti London reaction in some places.
    I don't, I have seen some comments asking what is there for the North but that is hardly being anti London.

    Some MP's are in favour of Heathrow 3, Like Cat McKinnell in Newcastle, as they see it as helping growth in the regions.
    My sister-in-law lives in Newcastle but often has to travel to London for meetings.

    The BA domestic and short-haul operation is the first to get binned in poor weather, which has a knock-on effect on the rest of the operation, connecting flights etc.

    With the third runway more cities would become daily commutable to London, and there would be many more connection opportunities to regional airports especially at the margins. Places like Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester, Leeds, Cardiff, could all have half-hourly services to LHR at peak hours, as smaller planes could be used that don’t go to Heathrow at the moment because the landing slots are too expensive.

    At the moment a lot of this regional connecting traffic goes out via Amsterdam on KLM, so the Dutch get the money.
    Transport from LHR to Westminster is 60 minutes according to Google Maps. Check it.
    Transport from Gatwick to Westminster is 50 minutes.

    Fly to Gatwick. There is a strong case for expanding Gatwick capacity.
    To be honest , our years of worldwide international travel was always out of Heathrow and I simply do not understand why anyone would promote Gatwick over Heathrow
    Perhaps you haven't travelled through Gatwick?

    It's less crowded an security is much quicker. It's also the second busiest single runway airport in the world.

    Friends in the north avoid LHR like the plague - for Europe its AMS, for points east DUB/DOH, for points west DUB., only if none of those work is LHR on the table.

    My recent flight to the Far East I happily made my way to LCY.
    For me, LCY is half an hour, LGW an hour, Stansted an hour, LHR and Luton an hour and a half. Though Gatwick requires more planning as the trains are less frequent.
    Depends where you start I guess but from London Thameslink trains are 8 per hour to Gatwick mid-day. That compares with 6/h on Elizabeth line to T2/3, and 4 to T5, 2 to T4
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    kenObi said:

    Nigelb said:

    kenObi said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    Most of the public prefer us to be shackled to an economic bloc that is currently in decline rather than one that is motoring ahead by comparison.


    Taz, we are adrift and going under, hard to see how we ever get out of the downward spiral when you see the dross that run the country. It is hard to conceive how so many talentless people are politician's.
    Indeed and they all, or mainly, seem to come from the same route. Via NGO's, Charities or former SPAD's. No real life experience. We have a business department where the ministers have no real life experience of running a business.

    At least Rachel Reeves now seems to get the need you actually have to do something to get growth rather than just speak about it. However there are too many like Ed Miliband in the govt who will stymie growth.
    The same Ed Miliband who is steam rolling through solar farms, on shore wind and pylons ?

    I think some of his ideas are crackers (carbon capture, 5% reliance on gas also seems a bit low) but he seems one of the few who actually had a plan for when in government and is cracking on with it.
    On this, crickets.

    Shortlist announced in SMR competition
    2 October 2023
    https://namrc.co.uk/industry/gbn-smr-shortlist/
    My personal view is that small scale reactors will have the same issues as large scale ones (hello NuScale !).

    While solar panel costs continue to fall , nuclear costs only ever go one way - and then some, regardless of size or technology.

    We might as well bite the bullet and spunk £20 billion on some massive inter-connectors & storage from Morocco.
    The big cost in solar is *everything* but the panels - converters and other power electronics, grid connection, batteries etc. the panels are already extremely cheap. And falling in price.

    Increasing the area of the panels because of northerly position and weather has little cost - a solar farm in Northumberland would have the same as Morocco, apart from more panels per watt.

    So spending £20bn on solar from Morocco might well be a waste of money.
    You'd need nearly three times the number of panels, and the intermittency problems would be much larger - and more correlated with the UK's existing intermittency problems. Therefore more storage, which is very expensive.

    I wasn't aware of this:
    ..The PV component will generate electricity during daylight hours, and the PV panels will move to track the sun to increase output in the morning and the evening. In Morocco, the prevailing winds blow most strongly in the afternoon and early evening, driven by the temperature difference between the Sahara Desert and the cooler Atlantic Ocean. These generating characteristics, combined with battery back-up, should allow the cable to run at full capacity for more than 19 hours a day on average...

    There is, of course, an energy security downside to Morocco, as that length of interconnect would be quite hard to protect against bad actors.
    There's an aspect of undersea cabling that I don't understand. If different operators between numerous destinations lay down cables and pipes for communications, power, gas and oil, don't they end up in a giant tangle? If the comms cable laid down ten years ago needs repair, how do you get to it if there are half a dozen others on top? Not to mention the 'accidental' anchor-dragging problem.
    That's why you keep maps, and have planning.
    The sabotage problem has yet to be satisfactorily addressed, I think.
    (Speaking of which, what's happening with the Black Sea HVDC cable project ?)
    If the map shows your cable is buried under several others how does that help?
    The plan is usually to have a look at the maps before you build something. "Under several others" is unlikely to be a problem - and you can plan for unavoidable crossing points to mitigate the problems.
    I suspect if you asked Ed Miliband about I squared R he wouldn't have a clue what you were talking about. And he is the number one in the Energy department.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,768

    Barnesian said:

    On Heathrow we travelled to Euston, then taxi to Paddington, then Heathrow express to Heathrow

    Only 15 minutes to and from Airport from London

    The strategic decision on whether to expand Heathrow or Gatwick shouldn't really be based on your own personal convenience! I'm sure you'll agree.
    The cab from Euston to Paddington could take quite a while now all the rat-runs have been blocked.
    There is something called the Tube though, just don't take too much luggage (and with respect to BGNW's age as I recall he's getting on a bit and may not be up to fighting with the Tube)
    The Elizabeth Line has made travelling to Heathrow much easier and quicker - especially if you're on Thameslink - which of course also serves Gatwick. Ah the days of Piccadilly Line to Barons Court, District Line to Blackfriars all step free to the station platform. Now its a simple transfer at Farringdon.
    This is another reason why Cambridge is obviously better than Oxford. You can get a direct train to Gatwick.
  • stjohn said:

    On energy storage. If batteries for energy storage are now really cheap, as I keep reading here, why don't we all have one installed at our individual homes and then the national grid can download all the excess energy to our homes when its windy or the sun is shining - which we then use when it's not windy or sunny?

    Quite a few people do have home batteries, and it's an idea I've been toying with for a while. The economics for me don't quite stack up yet though. Installation isn't cheap.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    edited January 23
    stjohn said:

    On energy storage. If batteries for energy storage are now really cheap, as I keep reading here, why don't we all have one installed at our individual homes and then the national grid can download all the excess energy to our homes when its windy or the sun is shining - which we then use when it's not windy or sunny?

    While the batteries and solar panels themselves are getting cheaper, the associated electronics to connect them to the grid are not. Tesla will sell you what they call a “Powerwall”, a 13.5kW battery that connects everything together, for £8,000. You can set this up to sell back to the grid at peak times if you have an appropriate deal with your provider.

    https://heatable.co.uk/battery-storage/advice/tesla-powerwall-3-costs
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,772
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    glw said:

    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2025/01/trump-admin-fires-homeland-security-advisory-boards-blaming-agendas/

    “The Department of Homeland Security has terminated all members of advisory committees, including one that has been investigating a major Chinese hack of large US telecom firms.

    “"The Cyber Safety Review Board—a Department of Homeland Security investigatory body stood up under a Biden-era cybersecurity executive order to probe major cybersecurity incidents—has been cleared of non-government members as part of a DHS-wide push to cut costs under the Trump administration, according to three people familiar with the matter," NextGov/FCW reported yesterday.”

    This is Trump being “tough” on China.

    It's worth noting that the incident discussed, Salt Typhoon, may be the worst cyber attack against the US ever discovered. So it's not some trival thing to disband a group investigating it.

    Mind you given that Trump is thinking of abolishing FEMA there are even crazier plans afoot.
    I think that there is a lot still buried in the initial blizzard of Executive Orders that has not been noticed yet. One of them revoked about 80 Biden initiatives.

    I have seen eg only marginal commentary on his rolling back of the reduced cost medicine programme - I haven't even seen anything myself beyond one or two mentions.
    https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/initial-rescissions-of-harmful-executive-orders-and-actions/
    PART 1

    Trump did 26 Executive Orders (EOs) in his first day. The list is here. The ones that have been discussed on PB are:
    14150 Withdrawing the United States from the World Health Organization
    14166 Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government
    14171 Ending Illegal Discrimination And Restoring Merit-Based Opportunity<

    The one you refer to is EO 14145 Initial Rescissions of Harmful Executive Orders and Actions. It revokes lots of previous EOs. I'll list them in the next post.
    PART 2

    The list is so long I'm going to have to split it. The previous EOs that were revoked (okay, rescinded) by EO14145 are as follows...
    • EO13985 (Advancing Racial Equity and Support for Underserved Communities Through the Federal Government)
    • EO13986 (Ensuring a Lawful and Accurate Enumeration and Apportionment Pursuant to the Decennial Census)
    • EO13987 (Organizing and Mobilizing the United States Government To Provide a Unified and Effective Response To Combat COVID-19 and To Provide United States Leadership on Global Health and Security)
    • EO13988 (Preventing and Combating Discrimination on the Basis Gender Identity or Sexual Orientation)
    • EO13989 (Ethics Commitments by Executive Branch Personnel)
    • EO13990 (Protecting Public Health and the Environment and Restoring Science To Tackle the Climate Crisis)
    • EO13992 (Revocation Certain Executive Orders Concerning Federal Regulation)
    • EO13993 (Revision Civil Immigration Enforcement Policies and Priorities)
    • EO13995 (Ensuring an Equitable Pandemic Response and Recovery)
    • EO13996 (Establishing the COVID-19 Pandemic Testing Board and Ensuring a Sustainable Public Health Workforce for COVID-19 and Other Biological Threats)
    • EO13997 (Improving and Expanding Access to Care and Treatments for COVID-19)
    • EO13999 (Protecting Worker Health and Safety)
    • EO14000 (Supporting the Reopening and Continuing Operation Schools and Early Childhood Education Providers)
    • EO14002 (Economic Relief Related to the COVID-19 Pandemic)
    • EO14003 (Protecting the Federal Workforce)
    • EO14004 (Enabling All Qualified Americans To Serve Their Country in Uniform)
    • EO14006 (Reforming Our Incarceration System To Eliminate the Use Privately Operated Criminal Detention Facilities)
    • EO14007 (President’s Council Advisors on Science and Technology)
    • EO14008 (Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad)
    • EO14009 (Strengthening Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act)
    • EO14010 (Creating a Comprehensive Regional Framework To Address the Causes Migration, To Manage Migration Throughout North and Central America, and To Provide Safe and Orderly Processing Asylum Seekers at the United States Border)
    • EO14011 (Establishment Interagency Task Force on the Reunification Families)
    • EO14012 (Restoring Faith in Our Legal Immigration Systems and Strengthening Integration and Inclusion Efforts for New Americans)
    • EO14013 (Rebuilding and Enhancing Programs To Resettle Refugees and Planning for the Impact Climate Change on Migration)
    • EO14015 (Establishment the White House Office Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships)
    • EO14018 (Revocation Certain Presidential Actions)
    • EO14019 (Promoting Access to Voting)
    • EO14020 (Establishment the White House Gender Policy Council)
    • EO14021 (Guaranteeing an Educational Environment Free From Discrimination on the Basis Sex, Including Sexual Orientation or Gender Identity)
    (continued on next post)
  • Sandpit said:

    stjohn said:

    On energy storage. If batteries for energy storage are now really cheap, as I keep reading here, why don't we all have one installed at our individual homes and then the national grid can download all the excess energy to our homes when its windy or the sun is shining - which we then use when it's not windy or sunny?

    While the batteries and solar panels themselves are getting cheaper, the associated electronics to connect them to the grid are not. Tesla will sell you what they call a “Powerwall”, a 13.5kW battery that connects everything together, for £8,000. You can set this up to sell back to the grid at peak times if you have an appropriate deal with your provider.

    https://heatable.co.uk/battery-storage/advice/tesla-powerwall-3-costs
    Right now, it works out cheaper for us to not go got the Smart Export Guarantee and keep it for ourselves.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,772
    edited January 23
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    glw said:

    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2025/01/trump-admin-fires-homeland-security-advisory-boards-blaming-agendas/

    “The Department of Homeland Security has terminated all members of advisory committees, including one that has been investigating a major Chinese hack of large US telecom firms.

    “"The Cyber Safety Review Board—a Department of Homeland Security investigatory body stood up under a Biden-era cybersecurity executive order to probe major cybersecurity incidents—has been cleared of non-government members as part of a DHS-wide push to cut costs under the Trump administration, according to three people familiar with the matter," NextGov/FCW reported yesterday.”

    This is Trump being “tough” on China.

    It's worth noting that the incident discussed, Salt Typhoon, may be the worst cyber attack against the US ever discovered. So it's not some trival thing to disband a group investigating it.

    Mind you given that Trump is thinking of abolishing FEMA there are even crazier plans afoot.
    I think that there is a lot still buried in the initial blizzard of Executive Orders that has not been noticed yet. One of them revoked about 80 Biden initiatives.

    I have seen eg only marginal commentary on his rolling back of the reduced cost medicine programme - I haven't even seen anything myself beyond one or two mentions.
    https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/initial-rescissions-of-harmful-executive-orders-and-actions/
    PART 1

    Trump did 26 Executive Orders (EOs) in his first day. The list is here. The ones that have been discussed on PB are:
    14150 Withdrawing the United States from the World Health Organization
    14166 Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government
    14171 Ending Illegal Discrimination And Restoring Merit-Based Opportunity<

    The one you refer to is EO 14145 Initial Rescissions of Harmful Executive Orders and Actions. It revokes lots of previous EOs. I'll list them in the next post.
    PART 2

    The list is so long I'm going to have to split it. The previous EOs that were revoked (okay, rescinded) by EO14145 are as follows...
    • EO13985 (Advancing Racial Equity and Support for Underserved Communities Through the Federal Government)
    • EO13986 (Ensuring a Lawful and Accurate Enumeration and Apportionment Pursuant to the Decennial Census)
    • EO13987 (Organizing and Mobilizing the United States Government To Provide a Unified and Effective Response To Combat COVID-19 and To Provide United States Leadership on Global Health and Security)
    • EO13988 (Preventing and Combating Discrimination on the Basis Gender Identity or Sexual Orientation)
    • EO13989 (Ethics Commitments by Executive Branch Personnel)
    • EO13990 (Protecting Public Health and the Environment and Restoring Science To Tackle the Climate Crisis)
    • EO13992 (Revocation Certain Executive Orders Concerning Federal Regulation)
    • EO13993 (Revision Civil Immigration Enforcement Policies and Priorities)
    • EO13995 (Ensuring an Equitable Pandemic Response and Recovery)
    • EO13996 (Establishing the COVID-19 Pandemic Testing Board and Ensuring a Sustainable Public Health Workforce for COVID-19 and Other Biological Threats)
    • EO13997 (Improving and Expanding Access to Care and Treatments for COVID-19)
    • EO13999 (Protecting Worker Health and Safety)
    • EO14000 (Supporting the Reopening and Continuing Operation Schools and Early Childhood Education Providers)
    • EO14002 (Economic Relief Related to the COVID-19 Pandemic)
    • EO14003 (Protecting the Federal Workforce)
    • EO14004 (Enabling All Qualified Americans To Serve Their Country in Uniform)
    • EO14006 (Reforming Our Incarceration System To Eliminate the Use Privately Operated Criminal Detention Facilities)
    • EO14007 (President’s Council Advisors on Science and Technology)
    • EO14008 (Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad)
    • EO14009 (Strengthening Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act)
    • EO14010 (Creating a Comprehensive Regional Framework To Address the Causes Migration, To Manage Migration Throughout North and Central America, and To Provide Safe and Orderly Processing Asylum Seekers at the United States Border)
    • EO14011 (Establishment Interagency Task Force on the Reunification Families)
    • EO14012 (Restoring Faith in Our Legal Immigration Systems and Strengthening Integration and Inclusion Efforts for New Americans)
    • EO14013 (Rebuilding and Enhancing Programs To Resettle Refugees and Planning for the Impact Climate Change on Migration)
    • EO14015 (Establishment the White House Office Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships)
    • EO14018 (Revocation Certain Presidential Actions)
    • EO14019 (Promoting Access to Voting)
    • EO14020 (Establishment the White House Gender Policy Council)
    • EO14021 (Guaranteeing an Educational Environment Free From Discrimination on the Basis Sex, Including Sexual Orientation or Gender Identity)
    (continued on next post)
    PART 3

    continued...
    • EO14022 (Termination Emergency With Respect to the International Criminal Court)
    • EO14023 (Establishment the Presidential Commission on the Supreme Court the United States)
    • EO14027 (Establishment the Climate Change Support Office)
    • EO14029 (Revocation Certain Presidential Actions and Technical Amendment)
    • EO14030 (Climate-Related Financial Risk)
    • EO14031 (Advancing Equity, Justice, and Opportunity for Asian Americans, Native Hawaiians, and Pacific Islanders)
    • EO14035 (Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Accessibility in the Federal Workforce)
    • EO14037 (Strengthening American Leadership in Clean Cars and Trucks)
    • EO14044 (Amending EO14007)
    • EO14045 (White House Initiative on Advancing Educational Equity, Excellence, and Economic Opportunity for Hispanics)
    • EO14049 (White House Initiative on Advancing Educational Equity, Excellence, and Economic Opportunity for Native Americans and Strengthening Tribal Colleges and Universities)
    • EO14050 (White House Initiative on Advancing Educational Equity, Excellence, and Economic Opportunity for Black Americans)
    • EO14052 (Implementation the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act)
    • EO14055 (Nondisplacement Qualified Workers Under Service Contracts)
    • EO14057 (Catalyzing Clean Energy Industries and Jobs Through Federal Sustainability)
    • EO14060 (Establishing the United States Council on Transnational Organized Crime)
    • EO14069 (Advancing Economy, Efficiency, and Effectiveness in Federal Contracting by Promoting Pay Equity and Transparency)
    • EO14070 (Continuing To Strengthen Americans’ Access to Affordable, Quality Health Coverage)
    • EO14074 (Advancing Effective, Accountable Policing and Criminal Justice Practices To Enhance Public Trust and Public Safety)
    • EO14075 (Advancing Equality for Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer, and Intersex Individuals)
    • EO14082 (Implementation the Energy and Infrastructure Provisions the Inflation Reduction Act 2022)
    • EO14084 (Promoting the Arts, the Humanities, and Museum and Library Services)
    • EO14087 (Lowering Prescription Drug Costs for Americans)
    • EO14089 (Establishing the President’s Advisory Council on African Diaspora Engagement in the United States)
    • EO14091 (Further Advancing Racial Equity and Support for Underserved Communities Through the Federal Government)
    (continued on next post)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872

    stjohn said:

    On energy storage. If batteries for energy storage are now really cheap, as I keep reading here, why don't we all have one installed at our individual homes and then the national grid can download all the excess energy to our homes when its windy or the sun is shining - which we then use when it's not windy or sunny?

    Quite a few people do have home batteries, and it's an idea I've been toying with for a while. The economics for me don't quite stack up yet though. Installation isn't cheap.
    A couple of weeks ago, friends of ours had solar panels put on their roof, along with a battery storage system. It worked for a couple of days, but the solar part of it failed. They've had engineers over virtually every weekday since, and they still have not fixed it.

    I believe the company have sent out an auditor to see if the work the contractor did was up to standard...

    The only good side to this is that it hasn't been ideal weather for PV, so they haven't been losing too much.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    On Heathrow we travelled to Euston, then taxi to Paddington, then Heathrow express to Heathrow

    Only 15 minutes to or from Airport from London

    Something to consider would be Euston to St Pancras (much quicker than to Paddington) then Thameslink to Gatwick.

    Like the Gatwick Express the Heathrow Express is a clever marketing ploy - there are cheaper and only slightly longer journeys available.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,566
    edited January 23
    Trump has frozen hirings/cancelled meetings/indefinite ban on travel for scientists at NIH. Patient recruitment efforts for clinical trials also affected.
    https://www.science.org/content/article/trump-hits-nih-devastating-freezes-meetings-travel-communications-and-hiring
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,768

    stjohn said:

    On energy storage. If batteries for energy storage are now really cheap, as I keep reading here, why don't we all have one installed at our individual homes and then the national grid can download all the excess energy to our homes when its windy or the sun is shining - which we then use when it's not windy or sunny?

    Quite a few people do have home batteries, and it's an idea I've been toying with for a while. The economics for me don't quite stack up yet though. Installation isn't cheap.
    A couple of weeks ago, friends of ours had solar panels put on their roof, along with a battery storage system. It worked for a couple of days, but the solar part of it failed. They've had engineers over virtually every weekday since, and they still have not fixed it.

    I believe the company have sent out an auditor to see if the work the contractor did was up to standard...

    The only good side to this is that it hasn't been ideal weather for PV, so they haven't been losing too much.
    We've got solar on the roof in our new place. We've had significantly less energy generated than last January, it seems. I'm really impressed with the heat pump system, and light well, though.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,483

    stjohn said:

    On energy storage. If batteries for energy storage are now really cheap, as I keep reading here, why don't we all have one installed at our individual homes and then the national grid can download all the excess energy to our homes when its windy or the sun is shining - which we then use when it's not windy or sunny?

    Quite a few people do have home batteries, and it's an idea I've been toying with for a while. The economics for me don't quite stack up yet though. Installation isn't cheap.
    A friend is going to get one installed so he can charge it during his cheap car-charging tariff period. Not sure if that makes any sort of economic sense or not - he doesn't have solar panels
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,303
    As a special treat, here's the latest Undercutters podcast, just covering the calendar/rule changes for F1 2025 plus a little bit of news:

    https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-calendar-and-rule-changes/

    [I've been very slightly pestilent lately but hopefully that doesn't come across in the audio].
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,421

    On Heathrow we travelled to Euston, then taxi to Paddington, then Heathrow express to Heathrow

    Only 15 minutes to or from Airport from London

    Something to consider would be Euston to St Pancras (much quicker than to Paddington) then Thameslink to Gatwick.

    Like the Gatwick Express the Heathrow Express is a clever marketing ploy - there are cheaper and only slightly longer journeys available.
    Presumably, if you've got to travel to London for a flight, then it's probably going to be Heathrow. Does Gatwick serve destinations that regional airports don't? (I don't disagree about Gatwick being better than Heathrow)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,772
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    glw said:

    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2025/01/trump-admin-fires-homeland-security-advisory-boards-blaming-agendas/

    “The Department of Homeland Security has terminated all members of advisory committees, including one that has been investigating a major Chinese hack of large US telecom firms.

    “"The Cyber Safety Review Board—a Department of Homeland Security investigatory body stood up under a Biden-era cybersecurity executive order to probe major cybersecurity incidents—has been cleared of non-government members as part of a DHS-wide push to cut costs under the Trump administration, according to three people familiar with the matter," NextGov/FCW reported yesterday.”

    This is Trump being “tough” on China.

    It's worth noting that the incident discussed, Salt Typhoon, may be the worst cyber attack against the US ever discovered. So it's not some trival thing to disband a group investigating it.

    Mind you given that Trump is thinking of abolishing FEMA there are even crazier plans afoot.
    I think that there is a lot still buried in the initial blizzard of Executive Orders that has not been noticed yet. One of them revoked about 80 Biden initiatives.

    I have seen eg only marginal commentary on his rolling back of the reduced cost medicine programme - I haven't even seen anything myself beyond one or two mentions.
    https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/initial-rescissions-of-harmful-executive-orders-and-actions/
    PART 1

    Trump did 26 Executive Orders (EOs) in his first day. The list is here. The ones that have been discussed on PB are:
    14150 Withdrawing the United States from the World Health Organization
    14166 Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government
    14171 Ending Illegal Discrimination And Restoring Merit-Based Opportunity<

    The one you refer to is EO 14145 Initial Rescissions of Harmful Executive Orders and Actions. It revokes lots of previous EOs. I'll list them in the next post.
    PART 2

    The list is so long I'm going to have to split it. The previous EOs that were revoked (okay, rescinded) by EO14145 are as follows...
    • EO13985 (Advancing Racial Equity and Support for Underserved Communities Through the Federal Government)
    • EO13986 (Ensuring a Lawful and Accurate Enumeration and Apportionment Pursuant to the Decennial Census)
    • EO13987 (Organizing and Mobilizing the United States Government To Provide a Unified and Effective Response To Combat COVID-19 and To Provide United States Leadership on Global Health and Security)
    • EO13988 (Preventing and Combating Discrimination on the Basis Gender Identity or Sexual Orientation)
    • EO13989 (Ethics Commitments by Executive Branch Personnel)
    • EO13990 (Protecting Public Health and the Environment and Restoring Science To Tackle the Climate Crisis)
    • EO13992 (Revocation Certain Executive Orders Concerning Federal Regulation)
    • EO13993 (Revision Civil Immigration Enforcement Policies and Priorities)
    • EO13995 (Ensuring an Equitable Pandemic Response and Recovery)
    • EO13996 (Establishing the COVID-19 Pandemic Testing Board and Ensuring a Sustainable Public Health Workforce for COVID-19 and Other Biological Threats)
    • EO13997 (Improving and Expanding Access to Care and Treatments for COVID-19)
    • EO13999 (Protecting Worker Health and Safety)
    • EO14000 (Supporting the Reopening and Continuing Operation Schools and Early Childhood Education Providers)
    • EO14002 (Economic Relief Related to the COVID-19 Pandemic)
    • EO14003 (Protecting the Federal Workforce)
    • EO14004 (Enabling All Qualified Americans To Serve Their Country in Uniform)
    • EO14006 (Reforming Our Incarceration System To Eliminate the Use Privately Operated Criminal Detention Facilities)
    • EO14007 (President’s Council Advisors on Science and Technology)
    • EO14008 (Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad)
    • EO14009 (Strengthening Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act)
    • EO14010 (Creating a Comprehensive Regional Framework To Address the Causes Migration, To Manage Migration Throughout North and Central America, and To Provide Safe and Orderly Processing Asylum Seekers at the United States Border)
    • EO14011 (Establishment Interagency Task Force on the Reunification Families)
    • EO14012 (Restoring Faith in Our Legal Immigration Systems and Strengthening Integration and Inclusion Efforts for New Americans)
    • EO14013 (Rebuilding and Enhancing Programs To Resettle Refugees and Planning for the Impact Climate Change on Migration)
    • EO14015 (Establishment the White House Office Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships)
    • EO14018 (Revocation Certain Presidential Actions)
    • EO14019 (Promoting Access to Voting)
    • EO14020 (Establishment the White House Gender Policy Council)
    • EO14021 (Guaranteeing an Educational Environment Free From Discrimination on the Basis Sex, Including Sexual Orientation or Gender Identity)
    (continued on next post)
    PART 3

    continued...
    • EO14022 (Termination Emergency With Respect to the International Criminal Court)
    • EO14023 (Establishment the Presidential Commission on the Supreme Court the United States)
    • EO14027 (Establishment the Climate Change Support Office)
    • EO14029 (Revocation Certain Presidential Actions and Technical Amendment)
    • EO14030 (Climate-Related Financial Risk)
    • EO14031 (Advancing Equity, Justice, and Opportunity for Asian Americans, Native Hawaiians, and Pacific Islanders)
    • EO14035 (Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Accessibility in the Federal Workforce)
    • EO14037 (Strengthening American Leadership in Clean Cars and Trucks)
    • EO14044 (Amending EO14007)
    • EO14045 (White House Initiative on Advancing Educational Equity, Excellence, and Economic Opportunity for Hispanics)
    • EO14049 (White House Initiative on Advancing Educational Equity, Excellence, and Economic Opportunity for Native Americans and Strengthening Tribal Colleges and Universities)
    • EO14050 (White House Initiative on Advancing Educational Equity, Excellence, and Economic Opportunity for Black Americans)
    • EO14052 (Implementation the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act)
    • EO14055 (Nondisplacement Qualified Workers Under Service Contracts)
    • EO14057 (Catalyzing Clean Energy Industries and Jobs Through Federal Sustainability)
    • EO14060 (Establishing the United States Council on Transnational Organized Crime)
    • EO14069 (Advancing Economy, Efficiency, and Effectiveness in Federal Contracting by Promoting Pay Equity and Transparency)
    • EO14070 (Continuing To Strengthen Americans’ Access to Affordable, Quality Health Coverage)
    • EO14074 (Advancing Effective, Accountable Policing and Criminal Justice Practices To Enhance Public Trust and Public Safety)
    • EO14075 (Advancing Equality for Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer, and Intersex Individuals)
    • EO14082 (Implementation the Energy and Infrastructure Provisions the Inflation Reduction Act 2022)
    • EO14084 (Promoting the Arts, the Humanities, and Museum and Library Services)
    • EO14087 (Lowering Prescription Drug Costs for Americans)
    • EO14089 (Establishing the President’s Advisory Council on African Diaspora Engagement in the United States)
    • EO14091 (Further Advancing Racial Equity and Support for Underserved Communities Through the Federal Government)
    (continued on next post)
    PART 4

    continued...
    • The Presidential Memorandum March 13, 2023 (Withdrawal Certain Areas off the United States Arctic Coast the Outer Continental Shelf from Oil or Gas Leasing)
    • EO14094 (Modernizing Regulatory Review)
    • EO14096 (Revitalizing Our Nation’s Commitment to Environmental Justice for All)
    • EO14099 (Moving Beyond COVID-19 Vaccination Requirements for Federal Workers)
    • EO14110 (Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use Artificial Intelligence)
    • EO14115 (Imposing Certain Sanctions on Persons Undermining Peace, Security, and Stability in the West Bank)
    • EO14124 (White House Initiative on Advancing Educational Equity, Excellence, and Economic Opportunity Through Hispanic-Serving Institutions)
    • EO14134 (Providing an Order Succession Within the Department Agriculture)
    • EO14135 (Providing an Order Succession Within the Department Homeland Security)
    • EO14136 (Providing an Order Succession Within the Department Justice)
    • EO14137 (Providing an Order Succession Within the Department the Treasury)
    • EO14138 (Providing an Order Succession Within the Office Management and Budget)
    • EO14139 (Providing an Order Succession Within the Office the National Cyber Director)
    • The Presidential Memorandum (Designation Officials the Council on Environmental Quality to Act as Chairman)
    • The Presidential Memorandum (Designation Officials the Office Personnel Management to Act as Director)
    • The Presidential Memorandum (Designation Officials the Office Science and Technology Policy to Act as Director)
    • The Presidential Memorandum (Designation Officials the United States Agency for Global Media to Act as Chief Executive Officer)
    • The Presidential Memorandum (Designation Officials the United States Agency for International Development to Act as Administrator)
    • The Presidential Memorandum (Designation Officials the United States International Development Finance Corporation to Act as Chief Executive Officer)
    • The Presidential Memorandum (Withdrawal Certain Areas the United States Outer Continental Shelf from Oil or Natural Gas Leasing)
    • The Presidential Memorandum (Withdrawal Certain Areas the United States Outer Continental Shelf from Oil or Natural Gas Leasing)
    • The Presidential Memorandum (Certification Rescission Cuba’s Designation as a State Sponsor Terrorism)
    • The Presidential Memorandum (Revocation National Security Presidential Memorandum 5)
    • EO14143 (Providing for the Appointment Alumni AmeriCorps to the Competitive Service)
    ...and that's it.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,712
    edited January 23

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    kenObi said:

    Nigelb said:

    kenObi said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    Most of the public prefer us to be shackled to an economic bloc that is currently in decline rather than one that is motoring ahead by comparison.


    Taz, we are adrift and going under, hard to see how we ever get out of the downward spiral when you see the dross that run the country. It is hard to conceive how so many talentless people are politician's.
    Indeed and they all, or mainly, seem to come from the same route. Via NGO's, Charities or former SPAD's. No real life experience. We have a business department where the ministers have no real life experience of running a business.

    At least Rachel Reeves now seems to get the need you actually have to do something to get growth rather than just speak about it. However there are too many like Ed Miliband in the govt who will stymie growth.
    The same Ed Miliband who is steam rolling through solar farms, on shore wind and pylons ?

    I think some of his ideas are crackers (carbon capture, 5% reliance on gas also seems a bit low) but he seems one of the few who actually had a plan for when in government and is cracking on with it.
    On this, crickets.

    Shortlist announced in SMR competition
    2 October 2023
    https://namrc.co.uk/industry/gbn-smr-shortlist/
    My personal view is that small scale reactors will have the same issues as large scale ones (hello NuScale !).

    While solar panel costs continue to fall , nuclear costs only ever go one way - and then some, regardless of size or technology.

    We might as well bite the bullet and spunk £20 billion on some massive inter-connectors & storage from Morocco.
    The big cost in solar is *everything* but the panels - converters and other power electronics, grid connection, batteries etc. the panels are already extremely cheap. And falling in price.

    Increasing the area of the panels because of northerly position and weather has little cost - a solar farm in Northumberland would have the same as Morocco, apart from more panels per watt.

    So spending £20bn on solar from Morocco might well be a waste of money.
    You'd need nearly three times the number of panels, and the intermittency problems would be much larger - and more correlated with the UK's existing intermittency problems. Therefore more storage, which is very expensive.

    I wasn't aware of this:
    ..The PV component will generate electricity during daylight hours, and the PV panels will move to track the sun to increase output in the morning and the evening. In Morocco, the prevailing winds blow most strongly in the afternoon and early evening, driven by the temperature difference between the Sahara Desert and the cooler Atlantic Ocean. These generating characteristics, combined with battery back-up, should allow the cable to run at full capacity for more than 19 hours a day on average...

    There is, of course, an energy security downside to Morocco, as that length of interconnect would be quite hard to protect against bad actors.
    There's an aspect of undersea cabling that I don't understand. If different operators between numerous destinations lay down cables and pipes for communications, power, gas and oil, don't they end up in a giant tangle? If the comms cable laid down ten years ago needs repair, how do you get to it if there are half a dozen others on top? Not to mention the 'accidental' anchor-dragging problem.
    That's why you keep maps, and have planning.
    The sabotage problem has yet to be satisfactorily addressed, I think.
    (Speaking of which, what's happening with the Black Sea HVDC cable project ?)
    If the map shows your cable is buried under several others how does that help?
    The plan is usually to have a look at the maps before you build something. "Under several others" is unlikely to be a problem - and you can plan for unavoidable crossing points to mitigate the problems.
    I suspect if you asked Ed Miliband about I squared R he wouldn't have a clue what you were talking about. And he is the number one in the Energy department.
    According to Wikipedia, Ed Miliband's A-levels were Mathematics (A), English (A), Further Mathematics (B) and Physics (B), so I reckon he probably does know the significance of I²R.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,772
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    glw said:

    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2025/01/trump-admin-fires-homeland-security-advisory-boards-blaming-agendas/

    “The Department of Homeland Security has terminated all members of advisory committees, including one that has been investigating a major Chinese hack of large US telecom firms.

    “"The Cyber Safety Review Board—a Department of Homeland Security investigatory body stood up under a Biden-era cybersecurity executive order to probe major cybersecurity incidents—has been cleared of non-government members as part of a DHS-wide push to cut costs under the Trump administration, according to three people familiar with the matter," NextGov/FCW reported yesterday.”

    This is Trump being “tough” on China.

    It's worth noting that the incident discussed, Salt Typhoon, may be the worst cyber attack against the US ever discovered. So it's not some trival thing to disband a group investigating it.

    Mind you given that Trump is thinking of abolishing FEMA there are even crazier plans afoot.
    I think that there is a lot still buried in the initial blizzard of Executive Orders that has not been noticed yet. One of them revoked about 80 Biden initiatives.

    I have seen eg only marginal commentary on his rolling back of the reduced cost medicine programme - I haven't even seen anything myself beyond one or two mentions.
    https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/initial-rescissions-of-harmful-executive-orders-and-actions/
    PART 1

    Trump did 26 Executive Orders (EOs) in his first day. The list is here. The ones that have been discussed on PB are:
    14150 Withdrawing the United States from the World Health Organization
    14166 Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government
    14171 Ending Illegal Discrimination And Restoring Merit-Based Opportunity<

    The one you refer to is EO 14145 Initial Rescissions of Harmful Executive Orders and Actions. It revokes lots of previous EOs. I'll list them in the next post.
    PART 2

    The list is so long I'm going to have to split it. The previous EOs that were revoked (okay, rescinded) by EO14145 are as follows...
    • EO13985 (Advancing Racial Equity and Support for Underserved Communities Through the Federal Government)
    • EO13986 (Ensuring a Lawful and Accurate Enumeration and Apportionment Pursuant to the Decennial Census)
    • EO13987 (Organizing and Mobilizing the United States Government To Provide a Unified and Effective Response To Combat COVID-19 and To Provide United States Leadership on Global Health and Security)
    • EO13988 (Preventing and Combating Discrimination on the Basis Gender Identity or Sexual Orientation)
    • EO13989 (Ethics Commitments by Executive Branch Personnel)
    • EO13990 (Protecting Public Health and the Environment and Restoring Science To Tackle the Climate Crisis)
    • EO13992 (Revocation Certain Executive Orders Concerning Federal Regulation)
    • EO13993 (Revision Civil Immigration Enforcement Policies and Priorities)
    • EO13995 (Ensuring an Equitable Pandemic Response and Recovery)
    • EO13996 (Establishing the COVID-19 Pandemic Testing Board and Ensuring a Sustainable Public Health Workforce for COVID-19 and Other Biological Threats)
    • EO13997 (Improving and Expanding Access to Care and Treatments for COVID-19)
    • EO13999 (Protecting Worker Health and Safety)
    • EO14000 (Supporting the Reopening and Continuing Operation Schools and Early Childhood Education Providers)
    • EO14002 (Economic Relief Related to the COVID-19 Pandemic)
    • EO14003 (Protecting the Federal Workforce)
    • EO14004 (Enabling All Qualified Americans To Serve Their Country in Uniform)
    • EO14006 (Reforming Our Incarceration System To Eliminate the Use Privately Operated Criminal Detention Facilities)
    • EO14007 (President’s Council Advisors on Science and Technology)
    • EO14008 (Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad)
    • EO14009 (Strengthening Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act)
    • EO14010 (Creating a Comprehensive Regional Framework To Address the Causes Migration, To Manage Migration Throughout North and Central America, and To Provide Safe and Orderly Processing Asylum Seekers at the United States Border)
    • EO14011 (Establishment Interagency Task Force on the Reunification Families)
    • EO14012 (Restoring Faith in Our Legal Immigration Systems and Strengthening Integration and Inclusion Efforts for New Americans)
    • EO14013 (Rebuilding and Enhancing Programs To Resettle Refugees and Planning for the Impact Climate Change on Migration)
    • EO14015 (Establishment the White House Office Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships)
    • EO14018 (Revocation Certain Presidential Actions)
    • EO14019 (Promoting Access to Voting)
    • EO14020 (Establishment the White House Gender Policy Council)
    • EO14021 (Guaranteeing an Educational Environment Free From Discrimination on the Basis Sex, Including Sexual Orientation or Gender Identity)
    (continued on next post)
    PART 3

    continued...
    • EO14022 (Termination Emergency With Respect to the International Criminal Court)
    • EO14023 (Establishment the Presidential Commission on the Supreme Court the United States)
    • EO14027 (Establishment the Climate Change Support Office)
    • EO14029 (Revocation Certain Presidential Actions and Technical Amendment)
    • EO14030 (Climate-Related Financial Risk)
    • EO14031 (Advancing Equity, Justice, and Opportunity for Asian Americans, Native Hawaiians, and Pacific Islanders)
    • EO14035 (Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Accessibility in the Federal Workforce)
    • EO14037 (Strengthening American Leadership in Clean Cars and Trucks)
    • EO14044 (Amending EO14007)
    • EO14045 (White House Initiative on Advancing Educational Equity, Excellence, and Economic Opportunity for Hispanics)
    • EO14049 (White House Initiative on Advancing Educational Equity, Excellence, and Economic Opportunity for Native Americans and Strengthening Tribal Colleges and Universities)
    • EO14050 (White House Initiative on Advancing Educational Equity, Excellence, and Economic Opportunity for Black Americans)
    • EO14052 (Implementation the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act)
    • EO14055 (Nondisplacement Qualified Workers Under Service Contracts)
    • EO14057 (Catalyzing Clean Energy Industries and Jobs Through Federal Sustainability)
    • EO14060 (Establishing the United States Council on Transnational Organized Crime)
    • EO14069 (Advancing Economy, Efficiency, and Effectiveness in Federal Contracting by Promoting Pay Equity and Transparency)
    • EO14070 (Continuing To Strengthen Americans’ Access to Affordable, Quality Health Coverage)
    • EO14074 (Advancing Effective, Accountable Policing and Criminal Justice Practices To Enhance Public Trust and Public Safety)
    • EO14075 (Advancing Equality for Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer, and Intersex Individuals)
    • EO14082 (Implementation the Energy and Infrastructure Provisions the Inflation Reduction Act 2022)
    • EO14084 (Promoting the Arts, the Humanities, and Museum and Library Services)
    • EO14087 (Lowering Prescription Drug Costs for Americans)
    • EO14089 (Establishing the President’s Advisory Council on African Diaspora Engagement in the United States)
    • EO14091 (Further Advancing Racial Equity and Support for Underserved Communities Through the Federal Government)
    (continued on next post)
    PART 4

    continued...
    • The Presidential Memorandum March 13, 2023 (Withdrawal Certain Areas off the United States Arctic Coast the Outer Continental Shelf from Oil or Gas Leasing)
    • EO14094 (Modernizing Regulatory Review)
    • EO14096 (Revitalizing Our Nation’s Commitment to Environmental Justice for All)
    • EO14099 (Moving Beyond COVID-19 Vaccination Requirements for Federal Workers)
    • EO14110 (Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use Artificial Intelligence)
    • EO14115 (Imposing Certain Sanctions on Persons Undermining Peace, Security, and Stability in the West Bank)
    • EO14124 (White House Initiative on Advancing Educational Equity, Excellence, and Economic Opportunity Through Hispanic-Serving Institutions)
    • EO14134 (Providing an Order Succession Within the Department Agriculture)
    • EO14135 (Providing an Order Succession Within the Department Homeland Security)
    • EO14136 (Providing an Order Succession Within the Department Justice)
    • EO14137 (Providing an Order Succession Within the Department the Treasury)
    • EO14138 (Providing an Order Succession Within the Office Management and Budget)
    • EO14139 (Providing an Order Succession Within the Office the National Cyber Director)
    • The Presidential Memorandum (Designation Officials the Council on Environmental Quality to Act as Chairman)
    • The Presidential Memorandum (Designation Officials the Office Personnel Management to Act as Director)
    • The Presidential Memorandum (Designation Officials the Office Science and Technology Policy to Act as Director)
    • The Presidential Memorandum (Designation Officials the United States Agency for Global Media to Act as Chief Executive Officer)
    • The Presidential Memorandum (Designation Officials the United States Agency for International Development to Act as Administrator)
    • The Presidential Memorandum (Designation Officials the United States International Development Finance Corporation to Act as Chief Executive Officer)
    • The Presidential Memorandum (Withdrawal Certain Areas the United States Outer Continental Shelf from Oil or Natural Gas Leasing)
    • The Presidential Memorandum (Withdrawal Certain Areas the United States Outer Continental Shelf from Oil or Natural Gas Leasing)
    • The Presidential Memorandum (Certification Rescission Cuba’s Designation as a State Sponsor Terrorism)
    • The Presidential Memorandum (Revocation National Security Presidential Memorandum 5)
    • EO14143 (Providing for the Appointment Alumni AmeriCorps to the Competitive Service)
    ...and that's it.
    PART 5

    Regardless of your stance on DEI, there's a shit-ton of baby in that bathwater and no doubt leopards will enjoy this feast of faces. Have fun, my children.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    A European country struggling for growth should be looking to join the Single Market, you'd have thought.

    Are we a European country struggling for growth?

    Well then.

    Well why are France, Germany and Italy struggling for growth if that's the case ?
    Many reasons. But they'd be struggling more without the Single Market. You're not seriously suggesting the Single Market doesn't aid growth for its members, I hope. No, you can't be. That would be a bizarre thing to say.
    The single market affects different areas in different ways.

    Some areas will be affected negatively overall.

    Clearly as you believe that free trade is so beneficial then you must logically believe that a free trade deal with the USA is preferable to joining the EU single market as that would result in more trade barriers being reduced and with a larger and richer economy.
    Trump has no interest in a trade deal with the UK that doesn't put America first and the Democrats would do a trade deal with the EU before the UK.

    So unless Farage and Reform win the next general election and Vance is elected to succeed Trump as POTUS, a US and UK trade deal is unlikely
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,483

    Barnesian said:

    On Heathrow we travelled to Euston, then taxi to Paddington, then Heathrow express to Heathrow

    Only 15 minutes to and from Airport from London

    The strategic decision on whether to expand Heathrow or Gatwick shouldn't really be based on your own personal convenience! I'm sure you'll agree.
    The cab from Euston to Paddington could take quite a while now all the rat-runs have been blocked.
    There is something called the Tube though, just don't take too much luggage (and with respect to BGNW's age as I recall he's getting on a bit and may not be up to fighting with the Tube)
    The Elizabeth Line has made travelling to Heathrow much easier and quicker - especially if you're on Thameslink - which of course also serves Gatwick. Ah the days of Piccadilly Line to Barons Court, District Line to Blackfriars all step free to the station platform. Now its a simple transfer at Farringdon.
    Being West of London, neither the Lizzie Line nor Thameslink are much use. Gatwick is one change of trains, either at Clapham Junction (every 15 minutes) or Farnborough if the train times suit and I have little enough luggage for the 15 minute walk between stations.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,505
    edited January 23

    IanB2 said:

    One of the climate models is suggesting a low pressure of 932mb might reach the UK by Friday - this would be the lowest air pressure ever recorded here, if it comes to pass. A serious storm is incoming.

    Currently a red warning for Northern Ireland. Amber and yellow for the rest of us.
    Two red wind warnings as the Met Office morning meeting has progressed.

    Whole NI warning between 7am-2pm tomorrow.
    South and Central Scotland warning between 10am-5pm tomorrow, broadly triangular from below Stranraer to East Lothian to Jura/Islay, an area which takes in both Edinburgh and Glasgow.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,466

    stjohn said:

    On energy storage. If batteries for energy storage are now really cheap, as I keep reading here, why don't we all have one installed at our individual homes and then the national grid can download all the excess energy to our homes when its windy or the sun is shining - which we then use when it's not windy or sunny?

    Quite a few people do have home batteries, and it's an idea I've been toying with for a while. The economics for me don't quite stack up yet though. Installation isn't cheap.
    A couple of weeks ago, friends of ours had solar panels put on their roof, along with a battery storage system. It worked for a couple of days, but the solar part of it failed. They've had engineers over virtually every weekday since, and they still have not fixed it.

    I believe the company have sent out an auditor to see if the work the contractor did was up to standard...

    The only good side to this is that it hasn't been ideal weather for PV, so they haven't been losing too much.
    I did some research on companies. They came, installed the panels (on a flat roof area), connected up to the work the electrician had already done. Just worked.

    Biggest pain was Octopus with their "smart meter" setup. Which is as dumb as a bag of hammers. The installer can't actually see if the meter is functioning correctly. You'd think that he'd have an app on the tablet (which he has for the paperwork) to connect to the meter and see *all* the data. Nope.....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    As a special treat, here's the latest Undercutters podcast, just covering the calendar/rule changes for F1 2025 plus a little bit of news:

    https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-calendar-and-rule-changes/

    [I've been very slightly pestilent lately but hopefully that doesn't come across in the audio].

    Spotted in the crowd in the Ferrari garage yesterday, wearing a red jacket, physiotherapist Angela Cullen. She was Lewis’s personal trainer for six years until two years ago, and now she’s back with him at Maranello.

    https://x.com/sim3744/status/1882134896585658450
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,157
    stjohn said:

    On energy storage. If batteries for energy storage are now really cheap, as I keep reading here, why don't we all have one installed at our individual homes and then the national grid can download all the excess energy to our homes when its windy or the sun is shining - which we then use when it's not windy or sunny?

    I got the 16KWh LG battery because fuck Elon and the Model Y he rode in on. It works very well and our non-workshop (3 phase supply on a separate CU) electricity bills are negligible.

    After about a month I got an email from LG telling me it could catch fire and burn the house to ground and they were recalling it. It was such a pain in the dick to install I couldn't face ripping the fucking 160kg monster out so I ignored it. House not currently wreathed in flames.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    It is certainly more likely the UK rejoins the EEA or a customs union than gets a trade deal with the USA in the next few years. Especially with Trump imposing 10% tariffs on foreign imports to the USA with more for China, Mexico and Canada.

    The most likely outcome of the next general election on current polls is a Labour minority government supported by the LDs which would make a closer trading relationship with the EU inevitable. Note the vast majority of both Labour and LDs, 75%, want a closer relationship with the EU over the USA on that Yougov poll.

    Interestingly a narrow plurality of Tory voters now prefer a closer trading relationship with the EU too, 37% to 35%. Reform voters though still the outlier with the majority, 56%, wanting a closer trading relationship with Trump's USA to just 20% for the EU

    It is interesting to see that Ed Davey is calling for the UK to push for entry into a Single Market with the EU, while poor old Starmer is left trying to strike a balance between the EU and the USA. And Top Tories are still sucking up to Trump.

    When are you coming over to the Lib Dems, young HY?
    Never as I don't want to rejoin the full EU and on other issues like opposing the winter fuel allowance cut and opposing the IHT hit on farms the LDs now agree with the Tories anyway, they are just more Nimby
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    stodge said:

    Just a question - I understand joining the Single Market but wouldn’t that restore Freedom of Movement unless we went down the Swiss route and negotiated a series of bilateral treaties with the EU which would, inter alia, define the extent to which the Four Freedoms would be followed?

    Had we renegotiated our membership on the Swiss model of bilateral treaties, we might have saved ourselves a lot of time and anguish.

    The Swiss model basically has free movement anyway so was not an option for the Conservatives given their commitment to end that. I suspect if the LDs hold the balance of power after the next general election they will push Starmer closer to the single market
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,730
    @StillWaters

    That's the one with the cap on insulin prices I mentioned - I think!.
    EO14087 (Lowering Prescription Drug Costs for Americans)

    That type of thing could potentially blow up. Big Pharma may be back in full force.

    https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-medicare-executive-order-explained-2018138
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,673
    Leon said:

    This USELESS government


    "Rachel Reeves to water down non-dom tax raid
    Chancellor prepares Bill amendment after exodus of millionaires from Britain"

    Telegraph

    FFS. Too late. Damage done. Bye bye lots of millionaires and their taxes. They won't come back

    Just how fucking stupid are they, that they didn't see this coming?

    Apparently saying "fuck off/good riddance" wasn't a winning economic plan. I wonder what they're going to change. Unless it's the IHT rules then there's no chance of people coming back and more will trickle out.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    The bizarre assumption in the header that membership of the SM would magically create growth here is just irritating. Membership did not increase our growth, it increased our trade deficit. That meant the benefits of our (excessive) consumption were felt elsewhere, not here. To be absolutely clear about it a trade deficit is measured as a negative when assessing growth. The larger the deficit the more it negatively impacts on growth.

    So why does anyone think that membership of the SM would increase growth? What is the evidence that we are more competitive than when we left the SM? What new opportunities are available to us that would improve our export capacity? I am seeing the reverse. Germany is really struggling at the moment, on the edge of recession, and has been for a few years now. I don't see additional demand for UK products or services there. France is not much better. Overall the EU is growing quite slowly, dragged down by German underperformance.

    If we were to make a go of the SM we would need years and years of major investment in our industry to boost productivity. We might, arguably, have started that thanks to Hunt's more generous write off provisions but we need to do so much more. We need to boost our skills levels. We need to think about how it could be made more attractive to employ people in the UK rather than elsewhere in the SM. Reeves' NI changes, of course, had the opposite effect.

    Membership of the SM can be a good or a bad but it is not a given benefit. It is only a benefit if we can make it work for us. If we can reduce our trade deficit and, in fantasy land, even generate a surplus it would be a boost to growth. When we have economic policies, taxation policies and the skills base to compete we can think about it. Right now it seems a continuation of the same policies that have impoverished this country over the last 30 years, turning us into a net debtor country with much of our remaining capacity owned by others.

    The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse than that caused by the pandemic, according to the chairman of the UK fiscal watchdog.

    Richard Hughes said the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had assumed leaving the EU would “reduce our long run GDP by around 4%”, adding in comments to the BBC: “We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%.”


    The Single Market was one of Thatcher’s many fine achievements, it helps grow the economy.
    That's bullshit because it doesn't take into account future industries only what currently exists. I hate to go back to the same theme over and over, however, the UK is now the single largest destination for AI investment in Europe and our market share is probably going to go above 80% over the next couple of years assuming Labour don't do anything stupid like join the single market. That investment is going to be worth tens of billions per year in the UK that we wouldn't get within the EU, by itself it's worth more than anything we may lose from not being in the single market.

    These analyses always, always fail to take into account the something where there was previously nothing factor. AI was previously a global nothing, now it is the largest and fastest growing industry in the world and the UK has a huge role to play in it while the EU has regulated itself into a cul-de-sac. Regulatory flexibility is worth more to us as a nation than anything the single market will ever be worth, we're about to vary our regulations on biotech which my old colleagues tell me will be worth billions in investment in the UK as money pours in to attract the best and brightest across Europe, people who don't want to move to the US or Asia but are happy to live and work here and create value where the EU has stifled innovation yet again.
    I saw a graphic showing that the UK has 6% of global investment in AI. Nothing compared to the USA and China, and yet it is more than the entire EU combined. And this will be a mega-trillion industry very soon

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,962

    Barnesian said:

    On Heathrow we travelled to Euston, then taxi to Paddington, then Heathrow express to Heathrow

    Only 15 minutes to and from Airport from London

    The strategic decision on whether to expand Heathrow or Gatwick shouldn't really be based on your own personal convenience! I'm sure you'll agree.
    No of course not

    But I haven't experienced anyone locally or indeed within our family who have ever used Gatwick

    Manchester or Heathrow are the principle airports, together with Birmingham for North Wales
    I'm nearer Heathrow but I use Gatwick more. Both are convenient for me. But Heathrow has higher passenger charges and parking.
    You should try Gatwick. It's not as massive as LHR.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,956
    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    It is certainly more likely the UK rejoins the EEA or a customs union than gets a trade deal with the USA in the next few years. Especially with Trump imposing 10% tariffs on foreign imports to the USA with more for China, Mexico and Canada.

    The most likely outcome of the next general election on current polls is a Labour minority government supported by the LDs which would make a closer trading relationship with the EU inevitable. Note the vast majority of both Labour and LDs, 75%, want a closer relationship with the EU over the USA on that Yougov poll.

    Interestingly a narrow plurality of Tory voters now prefer a closer trading relationship with the EU too, 37% to 35%. Reform voters though still the outlier with the majority, 56%, wanting a closer trading relationship with Trump's USA to just 20% for the EU

    It is interesting to see that Ed Davey is calling for the UK to push for entry into a Single Market with the EU, while poor old Starmer is left trying to strike a balance between the EU and the USA. And Top Tories are still sucking up to Trump.

    When are you coming over to the Lib Dems, young HY?
    Never as I don't want to rejoin the full EU and on other issues like opposing the winter fuel allowance cut and opposing the IHT hit on farms the LDs now agree with the Tories anyway, they are just more Nimby
    And there you were, raising my hopes and just leaing me on.....

    I am still not sure why you Tories think that caving in to all Trump's demands is a good policy for our country though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    On Heathrow we travelled to Euston, then taxi to Paddington, then Heathrow express to Heathrow

    Only 15 minutes to and from Airport from London

    The strategic decision on whether to expand Heathrow or Gatwick shouldn't really be based on your own personal convenience! I'm sure you'll agree.
    No of course not

    But I haven't experienced anyone locally or indeed within our family who have ever used Gatwick

    Manchester or Heathrow are the principle airports, together with Birmingham for North Wales
    I'm nearer Heathrow but I use Gatwick more. Both are convenient for me. But Heathrow has higher passenger charges and parking.
    You should try Gatwick. It's not as massive as LHR.
    Gatwick is growing on me, especially now I have realised I can get Thameslink from St Pancras. The experience at Gatwick, as at Luton, is also vastly improved. Cleaner, quicker, nicer

    London's airports are brilliantly linked to London. They are a major selling point and we should be expanding them, to make MORE money and attract more talent and tourism. Fuck Ed Millipede
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,261
    Totally o/t, but does anyone else feel that the BBC's (and other media outlets) continually posting picture of those poor little Southport girls must be adding to the distress for their families.
    Is it necessary?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559
    FF43 said:

    Driver said:

    Cicero said:

    Taz said:

    Cicero said:

    All those media wh*res ramping Farage as the next PM or some such rubbish could well be totally missing the direction of travel.
    Ed Davey's decent, intelligent moderation is finally getting the attention it deserves. His piece in the Guardian yesterday is a thoughtful dissection of the threat of Musk and the other tech cronies.
    The mood music across Europe concerning the new Trump order is strongly negative, and the bombastic, tawdry style of the new administration unlikely to improve Trump's already low popularity here.
    Trump scepticism has a solid franchise with the voters- Sir Ed could well gain massively by expressing this.

    Trump is America first. He is unlikely to care a great deal about what people in Europe think of him. Improving his popularity in the US is what matters to him not in the EU.
    You missed the point- it's what the negative view of Trump does in UK and European politics that I'm talking about.
    In any event the best way to get any kind of deal with a grifter like Trump is to be fully prepared to walk away.
    The best way to get any kind of deal with anyone is to be fully prepared to walk away. Some of us knew this in 2016.
    I actually laughed. How did that turn out?

    In general the best deals are the ones where you get the most of what you want for the fewest concessions on the stuff you really don't want.
    Parliament refused to let our negotiators walk away... that's the whole point...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    This USELESS government


    "Rachel Reeves to water down non-dom tax raid
    Chancellor prepares Bill amendment after exodus of millionaires from Britain"

    Telegraph

    FFS. Too late. Damage done. Bye bye lots of millionaires and their taxes. They won't come back

    Just how fucking stupid are they, that they didn't see this coming?

    Apparently saying "fuck off/good riddance" wasn't a winning economic plan. I wonder what they're going to change. Unless it's the IHT rules then there's no chance of people coming back and more will trickle out.
    Deets

    "The Government now plans to increase the temporary repatriation facility, which lets wealthy non-doms bring in cash without paying heavy taxes.

    Ms Reeves also said that she would make sure that her tax changes would not affect countries with double taxation agreements, which are designed to stop individuals from paying tax in both countries at the same time.

    Ms Reeves said: “There’s been some concerns from countries that have double taxation conventions with the UK, including India, that they would be drawn into paying inheritance tax,” she said.

    “That’s not the case: we are not going to be changing those double-taxation conventions.”"
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,673
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    The bizarre assumption in the header that membership of the SM would magically create growth here is just irritating. Membership did not increase our growth, it increased our trade deficit. That meant the benefits of our (excessive) consumption were felt elsewhere, not here. To be absolutely clear about it a trade deficit is measured as a negative when assessing growth. The larger the deficit the more it negatively impacts on growth.

    So why does anyone think that membership of the SM would increase growth? What is the evidence that we are more competitive than when we left the SM? What new opportunities are available to us that would improve our export capacity? I am seeing the reverse. Germany is really struggling at the moment, on the edge of recession, and has been for a few years now. I don't see additional demand for UK products or services there. France is not much better. Overall the EU is growing quite slowly, dragged down by German underperformance.

    If we were to make a go of the SM we would need years and years of major investment in our industry to boost productivity. We might, arguably, have started that thanks to Hunt's more generous write off provisions but we need to do so much more. We need to boost our skills levels. We need to think about how it could be made more attractive to employ people in the UK rather than elsewhere in the SM. Reeves' NI changes, of course, had the opposite effect.

    Membership of the SM can be a good or a bad but it is not a given benefit. It is only a benefit if we can make it work for us. If we can reduce our trade deficit and, in fantasy land, even generate a surplus it would be a boost to growth. When we have economic policies, taxation policies and the skills base to compete we can think about it. Right now it seems a continuation of the same policies that have impoverished this country over the last 30 years, turning us into a net debtor country with much of our remaining capacity owned by others.

    The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse than that caused by the pandemic, according to the chairman of the UK fiscal watchdog.

    Richard Hughes said the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had assumed leaving the EU would “reduce our long run GDP by around 4%”, adding in comments to the BBC: “We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%.”


    The Single Market was one of Thatcher’s many fine achievements, it helps grow the economy.
    That's bullshit because it doesn't take into account future industries only what currently exists. I hate to go back to the same theme over and over, however, the UK is now the single largest destination for AI investment in Europe and our market share is probably going to go above 80% over the next couple of years assuming Labour don't do anything stupid like join the single market. That investment is going to be worth tens of billions per year in the UK that we wouldn't get within the EU, by itself it's worth more than anything we may lose from not being in the single market.

    These analyses always, always fail to take into account the something where there was previously nothing factor. AI was previously a global nothing, now it is the largest and fastest growing industry in the world and the UK has a huge role to play in it while the EU has regulated itself into a cul-de-sac. Regulatory flexibility is worth more to us as a nation than anything the single market will ever be worth, we're about to vary our regulations on biotech which my old colleagues tell me will be worth billions in investment in the UK as money pours in to attract the best and brightest across Europe, people who don't want to move to the US or Asia but are happy to live and work here and create value where the EU has stifled innovation yet again.
    I saw a graphic showing that the UK has 6% of global investment in AI. Nothing compared to the USA and China, and yet it is more than the entire EU combined. And this will be a mega-trillion industry very soon

    Yes, and that 6% share is growing at the expense of the EU, we should get to something like 15% by 2027/28 if the government supports the industry in the right ways.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,772
    rkrkrk said:

    Trump has frozen hirings/cancelled meetings/indefinite ban on travel for scientists at NIH. Patient recruitment efforts for clinical trials also affected.
    https://www.science.org/content/article/trump-hits-nih-devastating-freezes-meetings-travel-communications-and-hiring

    Yes, I noticed that. Google tells me that NIH researcher funding is around 38billion dollars, so that is one hell of a wedge: almost two Milibands, in fact. People are saying the UK should welcome the resulting US scientist diaspora with open arms, which should be fun. Does anybody remember "V"?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,962
    RobD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Barnesian said:

    Good morning

    Reeves wants a third runway at Heathrow and Kemi needs to support this 100%

    It is exactly what should be at the forefront of any growth agenda

    Mind you, Khan and Burnham with others will be furious but the interesting one is Starmer who has opposed this as well, but with Starmer he will just change his position once again which would be no surprise

    Gatwick can be expanded to the same extent for an estimated £2b - 10% of the cost of a third runway at Heathrow and far quicker. That is why airlines are opposed to a third runway at Heathrow. And they aren't Nimbys.

    It is argued that Gatwick isn't a hub airport but the strong trend is to point to point. A third runway at Heathrow wouldn't be operational until the mid 2030s.

    I think there is a knee jerk anti London reaction in some places.
    I don't, I have seen some comments asking what is there for the North but that is hardly being anti London.

    Some MP's are in favour of Heathrow 3, Like Cat McKinnell in Newcastle, as they see it as helping growth in the regions.
    My sister-in-law lives in Newcastle but often has to travel to London for meetings.

    The BA domestic and short-haul operation is the first to get binned in poor weather, which has a knock-on effect on the rest of the operation, connecting flights etc.

    With the third runway more cities would become daily commutable to London, and there would be many more connection opportunities to regional airports especially at the margins. Places like Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester, Leeds, Cardiff, could all have half-hourly services to LHR at peak hours, as smaller planes could be used that don’t go to Heathrow at the moment because the landing slots are too expensive.

    At the moment a lot of this regional connecting traffic goes out via Amsterdam on KLM, so the Dutch get the money.
    Transport from LHR to Westminster is 60 minutes according to Google Maps. Check it.
    Transport from Gatwick to Westminster is 50 minutes.

    Fly to Gatwick. There is a strong case for expanding Gatwick capacity.
    To be honest , our years of worldwide international travel was always out of Heathrow and I simply do not understand why anyone would promote Gatwick over Heathrow
    Gatwick is much cheaper and quicker to get into London.

    You can also fly to 85 international destinations with Emirates.
    https://www.emirates.com/uk/english/destinations/flights-from-london-gatwick/
    Certainly isn’t quicker to get into London from Gatwick compared to Heathrow. The train takes half as long, for starters.
    Check on Google maps. There is not much difference to Westminster. Of course it depends on where in London you are going. It's a big place.

    I've used up my photo ration but the equivalent for Gatwick to Westminster is 41 minutes with 8 minute frequency. Also 53 minutes with a change at East Croydon.

    Certainly isn’t quicker to get into London from Heathrow compared to Gatwick.



  • TazTaz Posts: 16,911
    Leon said:

    This USELESS government


    "Rachel Reeves to water down non-dom tax raid
    Chancellor prepares Bill amendment after exodus of millionaires from Britain"

    Telegraph

    FFS. Too late. Damage done. Bye bye lots of millionaires and their taxes. They won't come back

    Just how fucking stupid are they, that they didn't see this coming?

    Perhaps she hopes they will come flooding back now she has seen the error of her ways ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    The bizarre assumption in the header that membership of the SM would magically create growth here is just irritating. Membership did not increase our growth, it increased our trade deficit. That meant the benefits of our (excessive) consumption were felt elsewhere, not here. To be absolutely clear about it a trade deficit is measured as a negative when assessing growth. The larger the deficit the more it negatively impacts on growth.

    So why does anyone think that membership of the SM would increase growth? What is the evidence that we are more competitive than when we left the SM? What new opportunities are available to us that would improve our export capacity? I am seeing the reverse. Germany is really struggling at the moment, on the edge of recession, and has been for a few years now. I don't see additional demand for UK products or services there. France is not much better. Overall the EU is growing quite slowly, dragged down by German underperformance.

    If we were to make a go of the SM we would need years and years of major investment in our industry to boost productivity. We might, arguably, have started that thanks to Hunt's more generous write off provisions but we need to do so much more. We need to boost our skills levels. We need to think about how it could be made more attractive to employ people in the UK rather than elsewhere in the SM. Reeves' NI changes, of course, had the opposite effect.

    Membership of the SM can be a good or a bad but it is not a given benefit. It is only a benefit if we can make it work for us. If we can reduce our trade deficit and, in fantasy land, even generate a surplus it would be a boost to growth. When we have economic policies, taxation policies and the skills base to compete we can think about it. Right now it seems a continuation of the same policies that have impoverished this country over the last 30 years, turning us into a net debtor country with much of our remaining capacity owned by others.

    The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse than that caused by the pandemic, according to the chairman of the UK fiscal watchdog.

    Richard Hughes said the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had assumed leaving the EU would “reduce our long run GDP by around 4%”, adding in comments to the BBC: “We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%.”


    The Single Market was one of Thatcher’s many fine achievements, it helps grow the economy.
    That's bullshit because it doesn't take into account future industries only what currently exists. I hate to go back to the same theme over and over, however, the UK is now the single largest destination for AI investment in Europe and our market share is probably going to go above 80% over the next couple of years assuming Labour don't do anything stupid like join the single market. That investment is going to be worth tens of billions per year in the UK that we wouldn't get within the EU, by itself it's worth more than anything we may lose from not being in the single market.

    These analyses always, always fail to take into account the something where there was previously nothing factor. AI was previously a global nothing, now it is the largest and fastest growing industry in the world and the UK has a huge role to play in it while the EU has regulated itself into a cul-de-sac. Regulatory flexibility is worth more to us as a nation than anything the single market will ever be worth, we're about to vary our regulations on biotech which my old colleagues tell me will be worth billions in investment in the UK as money pours in to attract the best and brightest across Europe, people who don't want to move to the US or Asia but are happy to live and work here and create value where the EU has stifled innovation yet again.
    I saw a graphic showing that the UK has 6% of global investment in AI. Nothing compared to the USA and China, and yet it is more than the entire EU combined. And this will be a mega-trillion industry very soon

    Yes, and that 6% share is growing at the expense of the EU, we should get to something like 15% by 2027/28 if the government supports the industry in the right ways.
    Starmer himself has actually said "we are going to use the freedoms of Brexit, to get the most out of this new tech, we will not be copying EU regulations" - (or words very much to that effect, I shall try and find them). So even Skyr Toolmakersson gets this. Which means there is hope
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,449

    stjohn said:

    On energy storage. If batteries for energy storage are now really cheap, as I keep reading here, why don't we all have one installed at our individual homes and then the national grid can download all the excess energy to our homes when its windy or the sun is shining - which we then use when it's not windy or sunny?

    Quite a few people do have home batteries, and it's an idea I've been toying with for a while. The economics for me don't quite stack up yet though. Installation isn't cheap.
    Yes, they’re not as cheap as all that yet. It’s nothing to do with safety: after all most of us have highly flammable natural gas pumping into our houses. There are a not insubstantial number of domestic gas explosions every year
  • Who would Briton's rather have their pensions invested in, the US or the EU?

  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Here's the exact quote


    LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Britain will go its own way on artificial intelligence regulation, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday.
    "I know there are different approaches (to AI regulation) around the world but we are now in control of our regulatory regime [READER: HE MEANS BREXIT] so we will go our own way on this," Starmer said.
    "We will test and understand AI before we regulate it to make sure that when we do it, it's proportionate and grounded."


    That's Starmer acknowledging an actual Brexit Benefit, but doing it very quietly so as not to freak out his voters

    Inter alia, this means we will not be rejoining the Single Market
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559

    Ugh, the Luddites are in control at The Telegraph, don’t these bellends realise you can control the settings on the steering wheel for nearly everything even before touchscreen dashboards

    Touchscreen dashboards have finally taken over and ruined driving

    Physical buttons are being consigned to history – but trying to prod a screen while navigating our famously poor road surfaces isn’t easy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/features/touchscreen-dashboards-have-taken-over/

    What a bizarre comment by the telegraph
    There are many people who are not enthused by the ergonomics of "single giant touchscreen"

    Not all of them techno-luddites.
    But as @TSE says everything can be controlled from the steering wheel [ at least mine can ]
    Do you not still have to look at the screen to see what you're doing on it?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872

    stjohn said:

    On energy storage. If batteries for energy storage are now really cheap, as I keep reading here, why don't we all have one installed at our individual homes and then the national grid can download all the excess energy to our homes when its windy or the sun is shining - which we then use when it's not windy or sunny?

    Quite a few people do have home batteries, and it's an idea I've been toying with for a while. The economics for me don't quite stack up yet though. Installation isn't cheap.
    A couple of weeks ago, friends of ours had solar panels put on their roof, along with a battery storage system. It worked for a couple of days, but the solar part of it failed. They've had engineers over virtually every weekday since, and they still have not fixed it.

    I believe the company have sent out an auditor to see if the work the contractor did was up to standard...

    The only good side to this is that it hasn't been ideal weather for PV, so they haven't been losing too much.
    I did some research on companies. They came, installed the panels (on a flat roof area), connected up to the work the electrician had already done. Just worked.

    Biggest pain was Octopus with their "smart meter" setup. Which is as dumb as a bag of hammers. The installer can't actually see if the meter is functioning correctly. You'd think that he'd have an app on the tablet (which he has for the paperwork) to connect to the meter and see *all* the data. Nope.....
    Apparently, the first engineer who came out to fix it, after it failed, said two cables in the garage were the wrong way around. The question is why it worked at all for a couple of days. He changed the cables around they should have been, and it still did not work.

    My friends are really, really annoyed by it all. I hope that changes when it all starts working and they can see their savings. But just having to stay in all day for an engineer who does not turn up when scheduled is rubbish.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,911

    Who would Briton's rather have their pensions invested in, the US or the EU?

    I am sure all of the people who want closer ties with the EU over the USA would want their money in the EU.

    I have a mix of S&P500 Tracker, US General Index Tracker and a Global Tracker.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,466
    edited January 23
    viewcode said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Trump has frozen hirings/cancelled meetings/indefinite ban on travel for scientists at NIH. Patient recruitment efforts for clinical trials also affected.
    https://www.science.org/content/article/trump-hits-nih-devastating-freezes-meetings-travel-communications-and-hiring

    Yes, I noticed that. Google tells me that NIH researcher funding is around 38billion dollars, so that is one hell of a wedge: almost two Milibands, in fact. People are saying the UK should welcome the resulting US scientist diaspora with open arms, which should be fun. Does anybody remember "V"?
    Quick, let's take all the gain-of-function researchers.

    image
  • As expected, Axel Rudakubana got around a two way ID check, for his knife. Not sure what else Starmer expects. Just posturing.


    Matt Dathan
    @matt_dathan
    Excl: The Amazon driver who delivered the lethal knife to the 17 year-old Southport attacker handed the package to an adult at his home address, believed to be his mother or father.

    Amazon has two-stage age verification for knife sales.

    It's understood that he used software to circumvent the first stage, which uses Experian to check his name, date of birth and address.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    viewcode said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Trump has frozen hirings/cancelled meetings/indefinite ban on travel for scientists at NIH. Patient recruitment efforts for clinical trials also affected.
    https://www.science.org/content/article/trump-hits-nih-devastating-freezes-meetings-travel-communications-and-hiring

    Yes, I noticed that. Google tells me that NIH researcher funding is around 38billion dollars, so that is one hell of a wedge: almost two Milibands, in fact. People are saying the UK should welcome the resulting US scientist diaspora with open arms, which should be fun. Does anybody remember "V"?
    Trump is REALLY angry at NIH, expect moves against individuals, like Daszak and Collins, implicated in the Covid cover-up
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,754
    edited January 23
    stjohn said:

    On energy storage. If batteries for energy storage are now really cheap, as I keep reading here, why don't we all have one installed at our individual homes and then the national grid can download all the excess energy to our homes when its windy or the sun is shining - which we then use when it's not windy or sunny?

    Because not enough people are on variable tariffs, and those who are are using them to charge their Tesla.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    mwadams said:

    stjohn said:

    On energy storage. If batteries for energy storage are now really cheap, as I keep reading here, why don't we all have one installed at our individual homes and then the national grid can download all the excess energy to our homes when its windy or the sun is shining - which we then use when it's not windy or sunny?

    Quite a few people do have home batteries, and it's an idea I've been toying with for a while. The economics for me don't quite stack up yet though. Installation isn't cheap.
    A couple of weeks ago, friends of ours had solar panels put on their roof, along with a battery storage system. It worked for a couple of days, but the solar part of it failed. They've had engineers over virtually every weekday since, and they still have not fixed it.

    I believe the company have sent out an auditor to see if the work the contractor did was up to standard...

    The only good side to this is that it hasn't been ideal weather for PV, so they haven't been losing too much.
    We've got solar on the roof in our new place. We've had significantly less energy generated than last January, it seems. I'm really impressed with the heat pump system, and light well, though.
    I'm at 109.8 kwh vs 133.3 for the prior Jan so it depends on the post storm weather as to how this month stacks up. Improvements on December though. Last sunny(ish) December was 2022. Both Dec 23 and Dec 24 sub 90.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Today's the day I get my tax bill

    Oh,,,,, joy
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,466

    Who would Briton's rather have their pensions invested in, the US or the EU?

    I'd recommend gold, canned goods, quality firearms and fissile material.

    Actually, all you need is fissile material. Everything else you can buy with it.
  • Taz said:

    Who would Briton's rather have their pensions invested in, the US or the EU?

    I am sure all of the people who want closer ties with the EU over the USA would want their money in the EU.

    I have a mix of S&P500 Tracker, US General Index Tracker and a Global Tracker.
    Yes, prefer to view actions over words. Maybe they should put their money where there mouths are.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,962
    Driver said:

    Ugh, the Luddites are in control at The Telegraph, don’t these bellends realise you can control the settings on the steering wheel for nearly everything even before touchscreen dashboards

    Touchscreen dashboards have finally taken over and ruined driving

    Physical buttons are being consigned to history – but trying to prod a screen while navigating our famously poor road surfaces isn’t easy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/features/touchscreen-dashboards-have-taken-over/

    What a bizarre comment by the telegraph
    There are many people who are not enthused by the ergonomics of "single giant touchscreen"

    Not all of them techno-luddites.
    But as @TSE says everything can be controlled from the steering wheel [ at least mine can ]
    Do you not still have to look at the screen to see what you're doing on it?
    I only have a windscreen on my 2002 BMW Series 5. All the controls are on my steering wheel. It's my only car and it's part of me.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    edited January 23
    Taz said:

    Who would Briton's rather have their pensions invested in, the US or the EU?

    I am sure all of the people who want closer ties with the EU over the USA would want their money in the EU.

    I have a mix of S&P500 Tracker, US General Index Tracker and a Global Tracker.
    The global tracker will substantially double dip the US trackers due to current allocation of global capital. I'm 60 global/40 tech which is around 78% US when you analyse the components.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,466
    edited January 23

    As expected, Axel Rudakubana got around a two way ID check, for his knife. Not sure what else Starmer expects. Just posturing.


    Matt Dathan
    @matt_dathan
    Excl: The Amazon driver who delivered the lethal knife to the 17 year-old Southport attacker handed the package to an adult at his home address, believed to be his mother or father.

    Amazon has two-stage age verification for knife sales.

    It's understood that he used software to circumvent the first stage, which uses Experian to check his name, date of birth and address.

    Called it - that is the gap in the current system. The drivers are under pressure to get the package delivered, rather than deliver to a specific person. They will accept anyone answering the door to take packages.

    EDIT: As a further issue, a non-trivial number of young people have falsely set birth dates on online systems. For example, the number of kids who have set their birthdate to be over 18 for their Apple ID....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641

    Ugh, the Luddites are in control at The Telegraph, don’t these bellends realise you can control the settings on the steering wheel for nearly everything even before touchscreen dashboards

    Touchscreen dashboards have finally taken over and ruined driving

    Physical buttons are being consigned to history – but trying to prod a screen while navigating our famously poor road surfaces isn’t easy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/features/touchscreen-dashboards-have-taken-over/

    What a bizarre comment by the telegraph
    There are many people who are not enthused by the ergonomics of "single giant touchscreen"

    Not all of them techno-luddites.
    In this country, for most people, the touchscreen is also operated by the non-dominant hand.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004

    As expected, Axel Rudakubana got around a two way ID check, for his knife. Not sure what else Starmer expects. Just posturing.


    Matt Dathan
    @matt_dathan
    Excl: The Amazon driver who delivered the lethal knife to the 17 year-old Southport attacker handed the package to an adult at his home address, believed to be his mother or father.

    Amazon has two-stage age verification for knife sales.

    It's understood that he used software to circumvent the first stage, which uses Experian to check his name, date of birth and address.

    Called it - that is the gap in the current system. The drivers are under pressure to get the package delivered, rather than deliver to a specific person. They will accept anyone answering the door to take packages.

    EDIT: As a further issue, a non-trivial number of young people have falsely set birth dates on online system. For example, the number of kids who have set their birthdate to be over 18 for their Apple ID....
    Are we saying husbands shouldn't be able to take packages for their wives and vice versa ? Also at my office everyone collects for each other.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    Twitter rumours that Trump has a team of people going through the JFK assassination files and preparing them for release.

    This is a promise he made to RFK Jr, who said that he wants to find out what the government actually knows about the deaths of his father and his uncle.

    https://x.com/gunthereagleman/status/1882261069630173224
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,911
    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    Who would Briton's rather have their pensions invested in, the US or the EU?

    I am sure all of the people who want closer ties with the EU over the USA would want their money in the EU.

    I have a mix of S&P500 Tracker, US General Index Tracker and a Global Tracker.
    The global tracker will substantially double dip the US trackers due to current allocation of global capital. I'm 60 global/40 tech which is around 78% US when you analyse the components.
    I will keep an eye on that. I have a global tracker, and it has done fine for me so far (past performance is no guide etc etc), to spread some risk and, as you say, it has a fair chunk of US exposure too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,209
    .
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    The bizarre assumption in the header that membership of the SM would magically create growth here is just irritating. Membership did not increase our growth, it increased our trade deficit. That meant the benefits of our (excessive) consumption were felt elsewhere, not here. To be absolutely clear about it a trade deficit is measured as a negative when assessing growth. The larger the deficit the more it negatively impacts on growth.

    So why does anyone think that membership of the SM would increase growth? What is the evidence that we are more competitive than when we left the SM? What new opportunities are available to us that would improve our export capacity? I am seeing the reverse. Germany is really struggling at the moment, on the edge of recession, and has been for a few years now. I don't see additional demand for UK products or services there. France is not much better. Overall the EU is growing quite slowly, dragged down by German underperformance.

    If we were to make a go of the SM we would need years and years of major investment in our industry to boost productivity. We might, arguably, have started that thanks to Hunt's more generous write off provisions but we need to do so much more. We need to boost our skills levels. We need to think about how it could be made more attractive to employ people in the UK rather than elsewhere in the SM. Reeves' NI changes, of course, had the opposite effect.

    Membership of the SM can be a good or a bad but it is not a given benefit. It is only a benefit if we can make it work for us. If we can reduce our trade deficit and, in fantasy land, even generate a surplus it would be a boost to growth. When we have economic policies, taxation policies and the skills base to compete we can think about it. Right now it seems a continuation of the same policies that have impoverished this country over the last 30 years, turning us into a net debtor country with much of our remaining capacity owned by others.

    The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse than that caused by the pandemic, according to the chairman of the UK fiscal watchdog.

    Richard Hughes said the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had assumed leaving the EU would “reduce our long run GDP by around 4%”, adding in comments to the BBC: “We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%.”


    The Single Market was one of Thatcher’s many fine achievements, it helps grow the economy.
    That's bullshit because it doesn't take into account future industries only what currently exists. I hate to go back to the same theme over and over, however, the UK is now the single largest destination for AI investment in Europe and our market share is probably going to go above 80% over the next couple of years assuming Labour don't do anything stupid like join the single market. That investment is going to be worth tens of billions per year in the UK that we wouldn't get within the EU, by itself it's worth more than anything we may lose from not being in the single market.

    These analyses always, always fail to take into account the something where there was previously nothing factor. AI was previously a global nothing, now it is the largest and fastest growing industry in the world and the UK has a huge role to play in it while the EU has regulated itself into a cul-de-sac. Regulatory flexibility is worth more to us as a nation than anything the single market will ever be worth, we're about to vary our regulations on biotech which my old colleagues tell me will be worth billions in investment in the UK as money pours in to attract the best and brightest across Europe, people who don't want to move to the US or Asia but are happy to live and work here and create value where the EU has stifled innovation yet again.
    You are possibly correct on this, and any deals with the EU must not give away what's likely the only real benefit of Brexit.

    I suspect Europe will have the same realisation about the downside of regulation fairly soon (a few politicians already have), but will take much longer to change than we can do in our own.

    Rejoiners (of which I still count myself one) need to be realistic about this.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,466

    Ugh, the Luddites are in control at The Telegraph, don’t these bellends realise you can control the settings on the steering wheel for nearly everything even before touchscreen dashboards

    Touchscreen dashboards have finally taken over and ruined driving

    Physical buttons are being consigned to history – but trying to prod a screen while navigating our famously poor road surfaces isn’t easy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/features/touchscreen-dashboards-have-taken-over/

    What a bizarre comment by the telegraph
    There are many people who are not enthused by the ergonomics of "single giant touchscreen"

    Not all of them techno-luddites.
    In this country, for most people, the touchscreen is also operated by the non-dominant hand.
    Indeed.

    It's worth remembering that the single touchscreen idea was an intersection of new-futuristic-look with cost cutting.

    Some all touch screen cars (combined with controls on the steering wheel etc) are ergonomically efficient.

    I've seen some that are hideously badly designed, as well.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,911
    Nigelb said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    The bizarre assumption in the header that membership of the SM would magically create growth here is just irritating. Membership did not increase our growth, it increased our trade deficit. That meant the benefits of our (excessive) consumption were felt elsewhere, not here. To be absolutely clear about it a trade deficit is measured as a negative when assessing growth. The larger the deficit the more it negatively impacts on growth.

    So why does anyone think that membership of the SM would increase growth? What is the evidence that we are more competitive than when we left the SM? What new opportunities are available to us that would improve our export capacity? I am seeing the reverse. Germany is really struggling at the moment, on the edge of recession, and has been for a few years now. I don't see additional demand for UK products or services there. France is not much better. Overall the EU is growing quite slowly, dragged down by German underperformance.

    If we were to make a go of the SM we would need years and years of major investment in our industry to boost productivity. We might, arguably, have started that thanks to Hunt's more generous write off provisions but we need to do so much more. We need to boost our skills levels. We need to think about how it could be made more attractive to employ people in the UK rather than elsewhere in the SM. Reeves' NI changes, of course, had the opposite effect.

    Membership of the SM can be a good or a bad but it is not a given benefit. It is only a benefit if we can make it work for us. If we can reduce our trade deficit and, in fantasy land, even generate a surplus it would be a boost to growth. When we have economic policies, taxation policies and the skills base to compete we can think about it. Right now it seems a continuation of the same policies that have impoverished this country over the last 30 years, turning us into a net debtor country with much of our remaining capacity owned by others.

    The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse than that caused by the pandemic, according to the chairman of the UK fiscal watchdog.

    Richard Hughes said the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had assumed leaving the EU would “reduce our long run GDP by around 4%”, adding in comments to the BBC: “We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%.”


    The Single Market was one of Thatcher’s many fine achievements, it helps grow the economy.
    That's bullshit because it doesn't take into account future industries only what currently exists. I hate to go back to the same theme over and over, however, the UK is now the single largest destination for AI investment in Europe and our market share is probably going to go above 80% over the next couple of years assuming Labour don't do anything stupid like join the single market. That investment is going to be worth tens of billions per year in the UK that we wouldn't get within the EU, by itself it's worth more than anything we may lose from not being in the single market.

    These analyses always, always fail to take into account the something where there was previously nothing factor. AI was previously a global nothing, now it is the largest and fastest growing industry in the world and the UK has a huge role to play in it while the EU has regulated itself into a cul-de-sac. Regulatory flexibility is worth more to us as a nation than anything the single market will ever be worth, we're about to vary our regulations on biotech which my old colleagues tell me will be worth billions in investment in the UK as money pours in to attract the best and brightest across Europe, people who don't want to move to the US or Asia but are happy to live and work here and create value where the EU has stifled innovation yet again.
    You are possibly correct on this, and any deals with the EU must not give away what's likely the only real benefit of Brexit.

    I suspect Europe will have the same realisation about the downside of regulation fairly soon (a few politicians already have), but will take much longer to change than we can do in our own.

    Rejoiners (of which I still count myself one) need to be realistic about this.
    As a rejoiner would you join the single currency ?
  • Driver said:

    Ugh, the Luddites are in control at The Telegraph, don’t these bellends realise you can control the settings on the steering wheel for nearly everything even before touchscreen dashboards

    Touchscreen dashboards have finally taken over and ruined driving

    Physical buttons are being consigned to history – but trying to prod a screen while navigating our famously poor road surfaces isn’t easy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/features/touchscreen-dashboards-have-taken-over/

    What a bizarre comment by the telegraph
    There are many people who are not enthused by the ergonomics of "single giant touchscreen"

    Not all of them techno-luddites.
    But as @TSE says everything can be controlled from the steering wheel [ at least mine can ]
    Do you not still have to look at the screen to see what you're doing on it?
    Not always, depending on the vehicle, it will show what is being changed on the dashboard that is right in front of the steering wheel.

    But some functions will appear on the other display.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,772
    Sandpit said:

    Twitter rumours that Trump has a team of people going through the JFK assassination files and preparing them for release.

    This is a promise he made to RFK Jr, who said that he wants to find out what the government actually knows about the deaths of his father and his uncle.

    https://x.com/gunthereagleman/status/1882261069630173224

    I'd like to see them myself. I hope Trump's team doesn't selectively release parts to support a narrative, but instead release the raw files so we can have a play with them.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,466
    Pulpstar said:

    As expected, Axel Rudakubana got around a two way ID check, for his knife. Not sure what else Starmer expects. Just posturing.


    Matt Dathan
    @matt_dathan
    Excl: The Amazon driver who delivered the lethal knife to the 17 year-old Southport attacker handed the package to an adult at his home address, believed to be his mother or father.

    Amazon has two-stage age verification for knife sales.

    It's understood that he used software to circumvent the first stage, which uses Experian to check his name, date of birth and address.

    Called it - that is the gap in the current system. The drivers are under pressure to get the package delivered, rather than deliver to a specific person. They will accept anyone answering the door to take packages.

    EDIT: As a further issue, a non-trivial number of young people have falsely set birth dates on online system. For example, the number of kids who have set their birthdate to be over 18 for their Apple ID....
    Are we saying husbands shouldn't be able to take packages for their wives and vice versa ? Also at my office everyone collects for each other.
    Just that it is the gap in the system.

    How you bridge that gap is another issue. The problem is really a version of the straw buyer issue.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,712
    edited January 23
    Nigelb said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    The bizarre assumption in the header that membership of the SM would magically create growth here is just irritating. Membership did not increase our growth, it increased our trade deficit. That meant the benefits of our (excessive) consumption were felt elsewhere, not here. To be absolutely clear about it a trade deficit is measured as a negative when assessing growth. The larger the deficit the more it negatively impacts on growth.

    So why does anyone think that membership of the SM would increase growth? What is the evidence that we are more competitive than when we left the SM? What new opportunities are available to us that would improve our export capacity? I am seeing the reverse. Germany is really struggling at the moment, on the edge of recession, and has been for a few years now. I don't see additional demand for UK products or services there. France is not much better. Overall the EU is growing quite slowly, dragged down by German underperformance.

    If we were to make a go of the SM we would need years and years of major investment in our industry to boost productivity. We might, arguably, have started that thanks to Hunt's more generous write off provisions but we need to do so much more. We need to boost our skills levels. We need to think about how it could be made more attractive to employ people in the UK rather than elsewhere in the SM. Reeves' NI changes, of course, had the opposite effect.

    Membership of the SM can be a good or a bad but it is not a given benefit. It is only a benefit if we can make it work for us. If we can reduce our trade deficit and, in fantasy land, even generate a surplus it would be a boost to growth. When we have economic policies, taxation policies and the skills base to compete we can think about it. Right now it seems a continuation of the same policies that have impoverished this country over the last 30 years, turning us into a net debtor country with much of our remaining capacity owned by others.

    The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse than that caused by the pandemic, according to the chairman of the UK fiscal watchdog.

    Richard Hughes said the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had assumed leaving the EU would “reduce our long run GDP by around 4%”, adding in comments to the BBC: “We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%.”


    The Single Market was one of Thatcher’s many fine achievements, it helps grow the economy.
    That's bullshit because it doesn't take into account future industries only what currently exists. I hate to go back to the same theme over and over, however, the UK is now the single largest destination for AI investment in Europe and our market share is probably going to go above 80% over the next couple of years assuming Labour don't do anything stupid like join the single market. That investment is going to be worth tens of billions per year in the UK that we wouldn't get within the EU, by itself it's worth more than anything we may lose from not being in the single market.

    These analyses always, always fail to take into account the something where there was previously nothing factor. AI was previously a global nothing, now it is the largest and fastest growing industry in the world and the UK has a huge role to play in it while the EU has regulated itself into a cul-de-sac. Regulatory flexibility is worth more to us as a nation than anything the single market will ever be worth, we're about to vary our regulations on biotech which my old colleagues tell me will be worth billions in investment in the UK as money pours in to attract the best and brightest across Europe, people who don't want to move to the US or Asia but are happy to live and work here and create value where the EU has stifled innovation yet again.
    You are possibly correct on this, and any deals with the EU must not give away what's likely the only real benefit of Brexit.

    I suspect Europe will have the same realisation about the downside of regulation fairly soon (a few politicians already have), but will take much longer to change than we can do in our own.

    Rejoiners (of which I still count myself one) need to be realistic about this.
    If you believe that there are risks associated with AI, then surely there are also upsides to regulation?

    Or have we all decided that they can be ignored for the sake of profit after all?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,209
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    The bizarre assumption in the header that membership of the SM would magically create growth here is just irritating. Membership did not increase our growth, it increased our trade deficit. That meant the benefits of our (excessive) consumption were felt elsewhere, not here. To be absolutely clear about it a trade deficit is measured as a negative when assessing growth. The larger the deficit the more it negatively impacts on growth.

    So why does anyone think that membership of the SM would increase growth? What is the evidence that we are more competitive than when we left the SM? What new opportunities are available to us that would improve our export capacity? I am seeing the reverse. Germany is really struggling at the moment, on the edge of recession, and has been for a few years now. I don't see additional demand for UK products or services there. France is not much better. Overall the EU is growing quite slowly, dragged down by German underperformance.

    If we were to make a go of the SM we would need years and years of major investment in our industry to boost productivity. We might, arguably, have started that thanks to Hunt's more generous write off provisions but we need to do so much more. We need to boost our skills levels. We need to think about how it could be made more attractive to employ people in the UK rather than elsewhere in the SM. Reeves' NI changes, of course, had the opposite effect.

    Membership of the SM can be a good or a bad but it is not a given benefit. It is only a benefit if we can make it work for us. If we can reduce our trade deficit and, in fantasy land, even generate a surplus it would be a boost to growth. When we have economic policies, taxation policies and the skills base to compete we can think about it. Right now it seems a continuation of the same policies that have impoverished this country over the last 30 years, turning us into a net debtor country with much of our remaining capacity owned by others.

    The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse than that caused by the pandemic, according to the chairman of the UK fiscal watchdog.

    Richard Hughes said the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had assumed leaving the EU would “reduce our long run GDP by around 4%”, adding in comments to the BBC: “We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%.”


    The Single Market was one of Thatcher’s many fine achievements, it helps grow the economy.
    That's bullshit because it doesn't take into account future industries only what currently exists. I hate to go back to the same theme over and over, however, the UK is now the single largest destination for AI investment in Europe and our market share is probably going to go above 80% over the next couple of years assuming Labour don't do anything stupid like join the single market. That investment is going to be worth tens of billions per year in the UK that we wouldn't get within the EU, by itself it's worth more than anything we may lose from not being in the single market.

    These analyses always, always fail to take into account the something where there was previously nothing factor. AI was previously a global nothing, now it is the largest and fastest growing industry in the world and the UK has a huge role to play in it while the EU has regulated itself into a cul-de-sac. Regulatory flexibility is worth more to us as a nation than anything the single market will ever be worth, we're about to vary our regulations on biotech which my old colleagues tell me will be worth billions in investment in the UK as money pours in to attract the best and brightest across Europe, people who don't want to move to the US or Asia but are happy to live and work here and create value where the EU has stifled innovation yet again.
    I saw a graphic showing that the UK has 6% of global investment in AI. Nothing compared to the USA and China, and yet it is more than the entire EU combined. And this will be a mega-trillion industry very soon

    Pro rats, by size of our economies (and populations), it's a lot more than nothing.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,303
    Sandpit said:

    As a special treat, here's the latest Undercutters podcast, just covering the calendar/rule changes for F1 2025 plus a little bit of news:

    https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-calendar-and-rule-changes/

    [I've been very slightly pestilent lately but hopefully that doesn't come across in the audio].

    Spotted in the crowd in the Ferrari garage yesterday, wearing a red jacket, physiotherapist Angela Cullen. She was Lewis’s personal trainer for six years until two years ago, and now she’s back with him at Maranello.

    https://x.com/sim3744/status/1882134896585658450
    Yeah, I heard about that (didn't include it, likewise Muller becoming the first female race engineer). I do wonder if 2025 can live up to the hype.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,962
    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Twitter rumours that Trump has a team of people going through the JFK assassination files and preparing them for release.

    This is a promise he made to RFK Jr, who said that he wants to find out what the government actually knows about the deaths of his father and his uncle.

    https://x.com/gunthereagleman/status/1882261069630173224

    I'd like to see them myself. I hope Trump's team doesn't selectively release parts to support a narrative, but instead release the raw files so we can have a play with them.
    My pet theory is that the bullet that blew Kennedy's head apart was an accident from the secret service guy in the car behind that suddenly accelerated, followed by a big cover up. Will the cover up continue? Or will there be an explosive revelation?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,466

    stjohn said:

    On energy storage. If batteries for energy storage are now really cheap, as I keep reading here, why don't we all have one installed at our individual homes and then the national grid can download all the excess energy to our homes when its windy or the sun is shining - which we then use when it's not windy or sunny?

    Quite a few people do have home batteries, and it's an idea I've been toying with for a while. The economics for me don't quite stack up yet though. Installation isn't cheap.
    A couple of weeks ago, friends of ours had solar panels put on their roof, along with a battery storage system. It worked for a couple of days, but the solar part of it failed. They've had engineers over virtually every weekday since, and they still have not fixed it.

    I believe the company have sent out an auditor to see if the work the contractor did was up to standard...

    The only good side to this is that it hasn't been ideal weather for PV, so they haven't been losing too much.
    I did some research on companies. They came, installed the panels (on a flat roof area), connected up to the work the electrician had already done. Just worked.

    Biggest pain was Octopus with their "smart meter" setup. Which is as dumb as a bag of hammers. The installer can't actually see if the meter is functioning correctly. You'd think that he'd have an app on the tablet (which he has for the paperwork) to connect to the meter and see *all* the data. Nope.....
    Apparently, the first engineer who came out to fix it, after it failed, said two cables in the garage were the wrong way around. The question is why it worked at all for a couple of days. He changed the cables around they should have been, and it still did not work.

    My friends are really, really annoyed by it all. I hope that changes when it all starts working and they can see their savings. But just having to stay in all day for an engineer who does not turn up when scheduled is rubbish.
    Did they have an electrician do the setup from the fusebox to the converter?

    I've read some stuff about that being an issue (quality/care) - had that done by my own electrician.

    I noticed that the installers were very happy when they saw the setup. One guy remarked to the other that "this one will easy".
  • Driver said:

    Ugh, the Luddites are in control at The Telegraph, don’t these bellends realise you can control the settings on the steering wheel for nearly everything even before touchscreen dashboards

    Touchscreen dashboards have finally taken over and ruined driving

    Physical buttons are being consigned to history – but trying to prod a screen while navigating our famously poor road surfaces isn’t easy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/features/touchscreen-dashboards-have-taken-over/

    What a bizarre comment by the telegraph
    There are many people who are not enthused by the ergonomics of "single giant touchscreen"

    Not all of them techno-luddites.
    But as @TSE says everything can be controlled from the steering wheel [ at least mine can ]
    Do you not still have to look at the screen to see what you're doing on it?
    The information is directly in front of me and everything on the screen can be moved in front as well, including the sat navigation but also I can instruct it by voice control

    I have had 3 BMWs including my last 2015 5 series and it was a fabulous car

    However, following my health issues I downsized to a Mercedes B180 AMG and it is incredible tech and much easier to park - (it will do it on it's own but I haven't been brave enough to try it yet)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Twitter rumours that Trump has a team of people going through the JFK assassination files and preparing them for release.

    This is a promise he made to RFK Jr, who said that he wants to find out what the government actually knows about the deaths of his father and his uncle.

    https://x.com/gunthereagleman/status/1882261069630173224

    I'd like to see them myself. I hope Trump's team doesn't selectively release parts to support a narrative, but instead release the raw files so we can have a play with them.
    I think the President wants to turn over everything, but one imagines there will be a fair amount of redaction from the spooks and they are some of the few people to whom he listens.

    But 1963 was 62 years ago, and 1968 was 57 years ago, so I guess a lot of the redactions depend on whether or not people mentioned are still alive.
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 245
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    The bizarre assumption in the header that membership of the SM would magically create growth here is just irritating. Membership did not increase our growth, it increased our trade deficit. That meant the benefits of our (excessive) consumption were felt elsewhere, not here. To be absolutely clear about it a trade deficit is measured as a negative when assessing growth. The larger the deficit the more it negatively impacts on growth.

    So why does anyone think that membership of the SM would increase growth? What is the evidence that we are more competitive than when we left the SM? What new opportunities are available to us that would improve our export capacity? I am seeing the reverse. Germany is really struggling at the moment, on the edge of recession, and has been for a few years now. I don't see additional demand for UK products or services there. France is not much better. Overall the EU is growing quite slowly, dragged down by German underperformance.

    If we were to make a go of the SM we would need years and years of major investment in our industry to boost productivity. We might, arguably, have started that thanks to Hunt's more generous write off provisions but we need to do so much more. We need to boost our skills levels. We need to think about how it could be made more attractive to employ people in the UK rather than elsewhere in the SM. Reeves' NI changes, of course, had the opposite effect.

    Membership of the SM can be a good or a bad but it is not a given benefit. It is only a benefit if we can make it work for us. If we can reduce our trade deficit and, in fantasy land, even generate a surplus it would be a boost to growth. When we have economic policies, taxation policies and the skills base to compete we can think about it. Right now it seems a continuation of the same policies that have impoverished this country over the last 30 years, turning us into a net debtor country with much of our remaining capacity owned by others.

    The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse than that caused by the pandemic, according to the chairman of the UK fiscal watchdog.

    Richard Hughes said the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had assumed leaving the EU would “reduce our long run GDP by around 4%”, adding in comments to the BBC: “We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%.”


    The Single Market was one of Thatcher’s many fine achievements, it helps grow the economy.
    That's bullshit because it doesn't take into account future industries only what currently exists. I hate to go back to the same theme over and over, however, the UK is now the single largest destination for AI investment in Europe and our market share is probably going to go above 80% over the next couple of years assuming Labour don't do anything stupid like join the single market. That investment is going to be worth tens of billions per year in the UK that we wouldn't get within the EU, by itself it's worth more than anything we may lose from not being in the single market.

    These analyses always, always fail to take into account the something where there was previously nothing factor. AI was previously a global nothing, now it is the largest and fastest growing industry in the world and the UK has a huge role to play in it while the EU has regulated itself into a cul-de-sac. Regulatory flexibility is worth more to us as a nation than anything the single market will ever be worth, we're about to vary our regulations on biotech which my old colleagues tell me will be worth billions in investment in the UK as money pours in to attract the best and brightest across Europe, people who don't want to move to the US or Asia but are happy to live and work here and create value where the EU has stifled innovation yet again.
    It should be pointed out that the UK's biggest clusters of AI will be in London, Cambridge (and to a lesser extent Oxford). That's where the machine learning & AI talent go to university, and that's where the venture capital funding is.

    That's why silcon valley (and Seattle) will be the world capital of AI

    It's much more down to to the fact Bill Hewlett and David Packard started their company in Palo Alto and Bill Gates was brought up in Seattle, than any amount of regulation.

    Those historical advantages are nigh on impossible to overcome and are very long lasting.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    glw said:

    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2025/01/trump-admin-fires-homeland-security-advisory-boards-blaming-agendas/

    “The Department of Homeland Security has terminated all members of advisory committees, including one that has been investigating a major Chinese hack of large US telecom firms.

    “"The Cyber Safety Review Board—a Department of Homeland Security investigatory body stood up under a Biden-era cybersecurity executive order to probe major cybersecurity incidents—has been cleared of non-government members as part of a DHS-wide push to cut costs under the Trump administration, according to three people familiar with the matter," NextGov/FCW reported yesterday.”

    This is Trump being “tough” on China.

    It's worth noting that the incident discussed, Salt Typhoon, may be the worst cyber attack against the US ever discovered. So it's not some trival thing to disband a group investigating it.

    Mind you given that Trump is thinking of abolishing FEMA there are even crazier plans afoot.
    I think that there is a lot still buried in the initial blizzard of Executive Orders that has not been noticed yet. One of them revoked about 80 Biden initiatives.

    I have seen eg only marginal commentary on his rolling back of the reduced cost medicine programme - I haven't even seen anything myself beyond one or two mentions.
    https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/initial-rescissions-of-harmful-executive-orders-and-actions/
    Section 1. Purpose and Policy. The previous administration has embedded deeply unpopular, inflationary, illegal, and radical practices within every agency and office of the Federal Government.

    Perhaps British laws should start by calling out the previous government as a corrupt bunch of low IQ nepo-babies.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,466
    Barnesian said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Twitter rumours that Trump has a team of people going through the JFK assassination files and preparing them for release.

    This is a promise he made to RFK Jr, who said that he wants to find out what the government actually knows about the deaths of his father and his uncle.

    https://x.com/gunthereagleman/status/1882261069630173224

    I'd like to see them myself. I hope Trump's team doesn't selectively release parts to support a narrative, but instead release the raw files so we can have a play with them.
    My pet theory is that the bullet that blew Kennedy's head apart was an accident from the secret service guy in the car behind that suddenly accelerated, followed by a big cover up. Will the cover up continue? Or will there be an explosive revelation?
    The problem with most of the conspiracy theories is actually The Magic Bullet.

    If you take the film, turn it into a 3D model and draw trajectories from the various wounds, it ends up showing the shots had to have come from the book repository.

    The only thing that was a coverup was the deliberate downplaying of Oswald's Russia connection. Which was ordered by the White House through their connections to the press.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,769
    edited January 23
    Driver said:

    FF43 said:

    Driver said:

    Cicero said:

    Taz said:

    Cicero said:

    All those media wh*res ramping Farage as the next PM or some such rubbish could well be totally missing the direction of travel.
    Ed Davey's decent, intelligent moderation is finally getting the attention it deserves. His piece in the Guardian yesterday is a thoughtful dissection of the threat of Musk and the other tech cronies.
    The mood music across Europe concerning the new Trump order is strongly negative, and the bombastic, tawdry style of the new administration unlikely to improve Trump's already low popularity here.
    Trump scepticism has a solid franchise with the voters- Sir Ed could well gain massively by expressing this.

    Trump is America first. He is unlikely to care a great deal about what people in Europe think of him. Improving his popularity in the US is what matters to him not in the EU.
    You missed the point- it's what the negative view of Trump does in UK and European politics that I'm talking about.
    In any event the best way to get any kind of deal with a grifter like Trump is to be fully prepared to walk away.
    The best way to get any kind of deal with anyone is to be fully prepared to walk away. Some of us knew this in 2016.
    I actually laughed. How did that turn out?

    In general the best deals are the ones where you get the most of what you want for the fewest concessions on the stuff you really don't want.
    Parliament refused to let our negotiators walk away... that's the whole point...
    So Boris Johnson pointed out, won a majority and was able to walk away, and then did a deal so crap he later pretended it had nothing to do with him.

    They forgot the other party could also walk away.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,301

    As expected, Axel Rudakubana got around a two way ID check, for his knife. Not sure what else Starmer expects. Just posturing.


    Matt Dathan
    @matt_dathan
    Excl: The Amazon driver who delivered the lethal knife to the 17 year-old Southport attacker handed the package to an adult at his home address, believed to be his mother or father.

    Amazon has two-stage age verification for knife sales.

    It's understood that he used software to circumvent the first stage, which uses Experian to check his name, date of birth and address.

    Called it - that is the gap in the current system. The drivers are under pressure to get the package delivered, rather than deliver to a specific person. They will accept anyone answering the door to take packages.

    EDIT: As a further issue, a non-trivial number of young people have falsely set birth dates on online systems. For example, the number of kids who have set their birthdate to be over 18 for their Apple ID....
    Back in the day - and thanks to a friendly teacher - I had a proof of age card that said I was a year older than I actually was. As did a number of my friends.

    Not that it'd matter in a case like this - I could still have just grabbed a big knife from the kitchen drawer.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641
    Dura_Ace said:

    Ugh, the Luddites are in control at The Telegraph, don’t these bellends realise you can control the settings on the steering wheel for nearly everything even before touchscreen dashboards

    Touchscreen dashboards have finally taken over and ruined driving

    Physical buttons are being consigned to history – but trying to prod a screen while navigating our famously poor road surfaces isn’t easy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/features/touchscreen-dashboards-have-taken-over/

    What a fucking shit article. Just about everything is voice controlled on modern BMWs so you don't have to dick around with the touchscreen.

    I'm dailying a 4Motion V6 2004 Phaeton (remember them?) at the moment. The interior is a retro button-fest and it's a fucking ergonomic nightmare. Solid car otherwise.
    Erm, you and TSE seem dangerously close to agreeing with the Telegraph that touchscreens are awful. You just suggest that rather than go back to buttons, there are superior replacements – voice control or steering wheel.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,466

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    The bizarre assumption in the header that membership of the SM would magically create growth here is just irritating. Membership did not increase our growth, it increased our trade deficit. That meant the benefits of our (excessive) consumption were felt elsewhere, not here. To be absolutely clear about it a trade deficit is measured as a negative when assessing growth. The larger the deficit the more it negatively impacts on growth.

    So why does anyone think that membership of the SM would increase growth? What is the evidence that we are more competitive than when we left the SM? What new opportunities are available to us that would improve our export capacity? I am seeing the reverse. Germany is really struggling at the moment, on the edge of recession, and has been for a few years now. I don't see additional demand for UK products or services there. France is not much better. Overall the EU is growing quite slowly, dragged down by German underperformance.

    If we were to make a go of the SM we would need years and years of major investment in our industry to boost productivity. We might, arguably, have started that thanks to Hunt's more generous write off provisions but we need to do so much more. We need to boost our skills levels. We need to think about how it could be made more attractive to employ people in the UK rather than elsewhere in the SM. Reeves' NI changes, of course, had the opposite effect.

    Membership of the SM can be a good or a bad but it is not a given benefit. It is only a benefit if we can make it work for us. If we can reduce our trade deficit and, in fantasy land, even generate a surplus it would be a boost to growth. When we have economic policies, taxation policies and the skills base to compete we can think about it. Right now it seems a continuation of the same policies that have impoverished this country over the last 30 years, turning us into a net debtor country with much of our remaining capacity owned by others.

    The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse than that caused by the pandemic, according to the chairman of the UK fiscal watchdog.

    Richard Hughes said the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had assumed leaving the EU would “reduce our long run GDP by around 4%”, adding in comments to the BBC: “We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%.”


    The Single Market was one of Thatcher’s many fine achievements, it helps grow the economy.
    That's bullshit because it doesn't take into account future industries only what currently exists. I hate to go back to the same theme over and over, however, the UK is now the single largest destination for AI investment in Europe and our market share is probably going to go above 80% over the next couple of years assuming Labour don't do anything stupid like join the single market. That investment is going to be worth tens of billions per year in the UK that we wouldn't get within the EU, by itself it's worth more than anything we may lose from not being in the single market.

    These analyses always, always fail to take into account the something where there was previously nothing factor. AI was previously a global nothing, now it is the largest and fastest growing industry in the world and the UK has a huge role to play in it while the EU has regulated itself into a cul-de-sac. Regulatory flexibility is worth more to us as a nation than anything the single market will ever be worth, we're about to vary our regulations on biotech which my old colleagues tell me will be worth billions in investment in the UK as money pours in to attract the best and brightest across Europe, people who don't want to move to the US or Asia but are happy to live and work here and create value where the EU has stifled innovation yet again.
    You are possibly correct on this, and any deals with the EU must not give away what's likely the only real benefit of Brexit.

    I suspect Europe will have the same realisation about the downside of regulation fairly soon (a few politicians already have), but will take much longer to change than we can do in our own.

    Rejoiners (of which I still count myself one) need to be realistic about this.
    If you believe that there are risks associated with AI, then surely there are also upsides to regulation?

    Or have we all decided that they can be ignored for the sake of profit after all?
    There is a regulation and regulation.

    Before 2008, for example, the government introduced a ton of regulation. Every trader had a photocopy of their passport in multiple files in HR. Every trader (or their desk monkey) had clicked through online exams on ethics ect. On and on and on.

    One chap I worked with - Old School Labour - joined the company during this period. Before he encountered this stuff, he thought I was just "being a Tory". Afterwards, he agreed it was useless.

    The thing is that the none of the regulations actually touched on the actual problem. Which wasn't new - how solvent is your bank? and what happens if the market throws *this* kind of wobbly?

    But that was tricky to regulate. So bikesheding instead....
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Ugh, the Luddites are in control at The Telegraph, don’t these bellends realise you can control the settings on the steering wheel for nearly everything even before touchscreen dashboards

    Touchscreen dashboards have finally taken over and ruined driving

    Physical buttons are being consigned to history – but trying to prod a screen while navigating our famously poor road surfaces isn’t easy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/features/touchscreen-dashboards-have-taken-over/

    What a fucking shit article. Just about everything is voice controlled on modern BMWs so you don't have to dick around with the touchscreen.

    I'm dailying a 4Motion V6 2004 Phaeton (remember them?) at the moment. The interior is a retro button-fest and it's a fucking ergonomic nightmare. Solid car otherwise.
    Erm, you and TSE seem dangerously close to agreeing with the Telegraph that touchscreens are awful. You just suggest that rather than go back to buttons, there are superior replacements – voice control or steering wheel.
    I would just say mine looks good but I rarely actually use it directly
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,209
    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    The bizarre assumption in the header that membership of the SM would magically create growth here is just irritating. Membership did not increase our growth, it increased our trade deficit. That meant the benefits of our (excessive) consumption were felt elsewhere, not here. To be absolutely clear about it a trade deficit is measured as a negative when assessing growth. The larger the deficit the more it negatively impacts on growth.

    So why does anyone think that membership of the SM would increase growth? What is the evidence that we are more competitive than when we left the SM? What new opportunities are available to us that would improve our export capacity? I am seeing the reverse. Germany is really struggling at the moment, on the edge of recession, and has been for a few years now. I don't see additional demand for UK products or services there. France is not much better. Overall the EU is growing quite slowly, dragged down by German underperformance.

    If we were to make a go of the SM we would need years and years of major investment in our industry to boost productivity. We might, arguably, have started that thanks to Hunt's more generous write off provisions but we need to do so much more. We need to boost our skills levels. We need to think about how it could be made more attractive to employ people in the UK rather than elsewhere in the SM. Reeves' NI changes, of course, had the opposite effect.

    Membership of the SM can be a good or a bad but it is not a given benefit. It is only a benefit if we can make it work for us. If we can reduce our trade deficit and, in fantasy land, even generate a surplus it would be a boost to growth. When we have economic policies, taxation policies and the skills base to compete we can think about it. Right now it seems a continuation of the same policies that have impoverished this country over the last 30 years, turning us into a net debtor country with much of our remaining capacity owned by others.

    The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse than that caused by the pandemic, according to the chairman of the UK fiscal watchdog.

    Richard Hughes said the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had assumed leaving the EU would “reduce our long run GDP by around 4%”, adding in comments to the BBC: “We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%.”


    The Single Market was one of Thatcher’s many fine achievements, it helps grow the economy.
    That's bullshit because it doesn't take into account future industries only what currently exists. I hate to go back to the same theme over and over, however, the UK is now the single largest destination for AI investment in Europe and our market share is probably going to go above 80% over the next couple of years assuming Labour don't do anything stupid like join the single market. That investment is going to be worth tens of billions per year in the UK that we wouldn't get within the EU, by itself it's worth more than anything we may lose from not being in the single market.

    These analyses always, always fail to take into account the something where there was previously nothing factor. AI was previously a global nothing, now it is the largest and fastest growing industry in the world and the UK has a huge role to play in it while the EU has regulated itself into a cul-de-sac. Regulatory flexibility is worth more to us as a nation than anything the single market will ever be worth, we're about to vary our regulations on biotech which my old colleagues tell me will be worth billions in investment in the UK as money pours in to attract the best and brightest across Europe, people who don't want to move to the US or Asia but are happy to live and work here and create value where the EU has stifled innovation yet again.
    You are possibly correct on this, and any deals with the EU must not give away what's likely the only real benefit of Brexit.

    I suspect Europe will have the same realisation about the downside of regulation fairly soon (a few politicians already have), but will take much longer to change than we can do in our own.

    Rejoiners (of which I still count myself one) need to be realistic about this.
    As a rejoiner would you join the single currency ?
    Potentially, perhaps yes.
    But certainly not in the current circumstances.

    In any event any realistic project for rejoining is probably a decade off.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    glw said:

    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2025/01/trump-admin-fires-homeland-security-advisory-boards-blaming-agendas/

    “The Department of Homeland Security has terminated all members of advisory committees, including one that has been investigating a major Chinese hack of large US telecom firms.

    “"The Cyber Safety Review Board—a Department of Homeland Security investigatory body stood up under a Biden-era cybersecurity executive order to probe major cybersecurity incidents—has been cleared of non-government members as part of a DHS-wide push to cut costs under the Trump administration, according to three people familiar with the matter," NextGov/FCW reported yesterday.”

    This is Trump being “tough” on China.

    It's worth noting that the incident discussed, Salt Typhoon, may be the worst cyber attack against the US ever discovered. So it's not some trival thing to disband a group investigating it.

    Mind you given that Trump is thinking of abolishing FEMA there are even crazier plans afoot.
    I think that there is a lot still buried in the initial blizzard of Executive Orders that has not been noticed yet. One of them revoked about 80 Biden initiatives.

    I have seen eg only marginal commentary on his rolling back of the reduced cost medicine programme - I haven't even seen anything myself beyond one or two mentions.
    https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/initial-rescissions-of-harmful-executive-orders-and-actions/
    Section 1. Purpose and Policy. The previous administration has embedded deeply unpopular, inflationary, illegal, and radical practices within every agency and office of the Federal Government.

    Perhaps British laws should start by calling out the previous government as a corrupt bunch of low IQ nepo-babies.
    It’s quite amazing to see just how much personal power the President has over the workings and operation of the Federal government itself. So much has been done over the years by EO rather than legislation, perhaps in part due to the difficulty of passing legislation through two separately elected houses often run by different parties.

    A well-prepared President who comes in with a clear agenda to make radical changes, can actually accomplish a fair amount on his own.

    The second part of the Republican plan is to pass a lot of legislation in the next 18 months, codifying as far as possible the actions of this week.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,962
    edited January 23

    Barnesian said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Twitter rumours that Trump has a team of people going through the JFK assassination files and preparing them for release.

    This is a promise he made to RFK Jr, who said that he wants to find out what the government actually knows about the deaths of his father and his uncle.

    https://x.com/gunthereagleman/status/1882261069630173224

    I'd like to see them myself. I hope Trump's team doesn't selectively release parts to support a narrative, but instead release the raw files so we can have a play with them.
    My pet theory is that the bullet that blew Kennedy's head apart was an accident from the secret service guy in the car behind that suddenly accelerated, followed by a big cover up. Will the cover up continue? Or will there be an explosive revelation?
    The problem with most of the conspiracy theories is actually The Magic Bullet.

    If you take the film, turn it into a 3D model and draw trajectories from the various wounds, it ends up showing the shots had to have come from the book repository.

    The only thing that was a coverup was the deliberate downplaying of Oswald's Russia connection. Which was ordered by the White House through their connections to the press.
    The wound in Kennedy's head was very messy and hard to draw a trajectory from. It was not caused by a normal rifle bullet but a dumdum bullet used by the secret service to definitely stop a potential assassin. His brain was scooped out at the hospital so the bullet fragments couldn't be examined.

    Edit: Here we go again! It would be good to get the unredacted reports.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,209
    kenObi said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    The bizarre assumption in the header that membership of the SM would magically create growth here is just irritating. Membership did not increase our growth, it increased our trade deficit. That meant the benefits of our (excessive) consumption were felt elsewhere, not here. To be absolutely clear about it a trade deficit is measured as a negative when assessing growth. The larger the deficit the more it negatively impacts on growth.

    So why does anyone think that membership of the SM would increase growth? What is the evidence that we are more competitive than when we left the SM? What new opportunities are available to us that would improve our export capacity? I am seeing the reverse. Germany is really struggling at the moment, on the edge of recession, and has been for a few years now. I don't see additional demand for UK products or services there. France is not much better. Overall the EU is growing quite slowly, dragged down by German underperformance.

    If we were to make a go of the SM we would need years and years of major investment in our industry to boost productivity. We might, arguably, have started that thanks to Hunt's more generous write off provisions but we need to do so much more. We need to boost our skills levels. We need to think about how it could be made more attractive to employ people in the UK rather than elsewhere in the SM. Reeves' NI changes, of course, had the opposite effect.

    Membership of the SM can be a good or a bad but it is not a given benefit. It is only a benefit if we can make it work for us. If we can reduce our trade deficit and, in fantasy land, even generate a surplus it would be a boost to growth. When we have economic policies, taxation policies and the skills base to compete we can think about it. Right now it seems a continuation of the same policies that have impoverished this country over the last 30 years, turning us into a net debtor country with much of our remaining capacity owned by others.

    The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse than that caused by the pandemic, according to the chairman of the UK fiscal watchdog.

    Richard Hughes said the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had assumed leaving the EU would “reduce our long run GDP by around 4%”, adding in comments to the BBC: “We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%.”


    The Single Market was one of Thatcher’s many fine achievements, it helps grow the economy.
    That's bullshit because it doesn't take into account future industries only what currently exists. I hate to go back to the same theme over and over, however, the UK is now the single largest destination for AI investment in Europe and our market share is probably going to go above 80% over the next couple of years assuming Labour don't do anything stupid like join the single market. That investment is going to be worth tens of billions per year in the UK that we wouldn't get within the EU, by itself it's worth more than anything we may lose from not being in the single market.

    These analyses always, always fail to take into account the something where there was previously nothing factor. AI was previously a global nothing, now it is the largest and fastest growing industry in the world and the UK has a huge role to play in it while the EU has regulated itself into a cul-de-sac. Regulatory flexibility is worth more to us as a nation than anything the single market will ever be worth, we're about to vary our regulations on biotech which my old colleagues tell me will be worth billions in investment in the UK as money pours in to attract the best and brightest across Europe, people who don't want to move to the US or Asia but are happy to live and work here and create value where the EU has stifled innovation yet again.
    It should be pointed out that the UK's biggest clusters of AI will be in London, Cambridge (and to a lesser extent Oxford). That's where the machine learning & AI talent go to university, and that's where the venture capital funding is.

    That's why silcon valley (and Seattle) will be the world capital of AI

    It's much more down to to the fact Bill Hewlett and David Packard started their company in Palo Alto and Bill Gates was brought up in Seattle, than any amount of regulation.

    Those historical advantages are nigh on impossible to overcome and are very long lasting.
    As Taiwan has shown, though, you only need a small historical accident (the failure of Texas Instruments to promote Morris Chang) to overcome such an advantage.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,067

    Ugh, the Luddites are in control at The Telegraph, don’t these bellends realise you can control the settings on the steering wheel for nearly everything even before touchscreen dashboards

    Touchscreen dashboards have finally taken over and ruined driving

    Physical buttons are being consigned to history – but trying to prod a screen while navigating our famously poor road surfaces isn’t easy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/features/touchscreen-dashboards-have-taken-over/

    What a bizarre comment by the telegraph
    Touchscreens can be problematic for people with certain medical problems, e.g. peripheral neuropathy. Designers should consider the needs of disabled people when... OMG, this means the Telegraph has gone WOKE!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,284
    .
    Barnesian said:

    RobD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Barnesian said:

    Good morning

    Reeves wants a third runway at Heathrow and Kemi needs to support this 100%

    It is exactly what should be at the forefront of any growth agenda

    Mind you, Khan and Burnham with others will be furious but the interesting one is Starmer who has opposed this as well, but with Starmer he will just change his position once again which would be no surprise

    Gatwick can be expanded to the same extent for an estimated £2b - 10% of the cost of a third runway at Heathrow and far quicker. That is why airlines are opposed to a third runway at Heathrow. And they aren't Nimbys.

    It is argued that Gatwick isn't a hub airport but the strong trend is to point to point. A third runway at Heathrow wouldn't be operational until the mid 2030s.

    I think there is a knee jerk anti London reaction in some places.
    I don't, I have seen some comments asking what is there for the North but that is hardly being anti London.

    Some MP's are in favour of Heathrow 3, Like Cat McKinnell in Newcastle, as they see it as helping growth in the regions.
    My sister-in-law lives in Newcastle but often has to travel to London for meetings.

    The BA domestic and short-haul operation is the first to get binned in poor weather, which has a knock-on effect on the rest of the operation, connecting flights etc.

    With the third runway more cities would become daily commutable to London, and there would be many more connection opportunities to regional airports especially at the margins. Places like Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester, Leeds, Cardiff, could all have half-hourly services to LHR at peak hours, as smaller planes could be used that don’t go to Heathrow at the moment because the landing slots are too expensive.

    At the moment a lot of this regional connecting traffic goes out via Amsterdam on KLM, so the Dutch get the money.
    Transport from LHR to Westminster is 60 minutes according to Google Maps. Check it.
    Transport from Gatwick to Westminster is 50 minutes.

    Fly to Gatwick. There is a strong case for expanding Gatwick capacity.
    To be honest , our years of worldwide international travel was always out of Heathrow and I simply do not understand why anyone would promote Gatwick over Heathrow
    Gatwick is much cheaper and quicker to get into London.

    You can also fly to 85 international destinations with Emirates.
    https://www.emirates.com/uk/english/destinations/flights-from-london-gatwick/
    Certainly isn’t quicker to get into London from Gatwick compared to Heathrow. The train takes half as long, for starters.
    Check on Google maps. There is not much difference to Westminster. Of course it depends on where in London you are going. It's a big place.

    I've used up my photo ration but the equivalent for Gatwick to Westminster is 41 minutes with 8 minute frequency. Also 53 minutes with a change at East Croydon.

    Certainly isn’t quicker to get into London from Heathrow compared to Gatwick.



    Most of that time is spent faffing around in London itself, I was referring to the journey time of the train from the terminus to the airport. Of course then it is highly sensitive to where you start from, e.g. closer to Paddington and it'll be much faster to go to Heathrow.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559

    As expected, Axel Rudakubana got around a two way ID check, for his knife. Not sure what else Starmer expects. Just posturing.


    Matt Dathan
    @matt_dathan
    Excl: The Amazon driver who delivered the lethal knife to the 17 year-old Southport attacker handed the package to an adult at his home address, believed to be his mother or father.

    Amazon has two-stage age verification for knife sales.

    It's understood that he used software to circumvent the first stage, which uses Experian to check his name, date of birth and address.

    Called it - that is the gap in the current system. The drivers are under pressure to get the package delivered, rather than deliver to a specific person. They will accept anyone answering the door to take packages.

    EDIT: As a further issue, a non-trivial number of young people have falsely set birth dates on online systems. For example, the number of kids who have set their birthdate to be over 18 for their Apple ID....
    Specifically, Amazon AVD doesn't require delivery to the named person, just any adult. It's not the drivers choosing to deliver to any adult - or the DSPs allowing their drivers to - it is the Amazon system.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Nigelb said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    The bizarre assumption in the header that membership of the SM would magically create growth here is just irritating. Membership did not increase our growth, it increased our trade deficit. That meant the benefits of our (excessive) consumption were felt elsewhere, not here. To be absolutely clear about it a trade deficit is measured as a negative when assessing growth. The larger the deficit the more it negatively impacts on growth.

    So why does anyone think that membership of the SM would increase growth? What is the evidence that we are more competitive than when we left the SM? What new opportunities are available to us that would improve our export capacity? I am seeing the reverse. Germany is really struggling at the moment, on the edge of recession, and has been for a few years now. I don't see additional demand for UK products or services there. France is not much better. Overall the EU is growing quite slowly, dragged down by German underperformance.

    If we were to make a go of the SM we would need years and years of major investment in our industry to boost productivity. We might, arguably, have started that thanks to Hunt's more generous write off provisions but we need to do so much more. We need to boost our skills levels. We need to think about how it could be made more attractive to employ people in the UK rather than elsewhere in the SM. Reeves' NI changes, of course, had the opposite effect.

    Membership of the SM can be a good or a bad but it is not a given benefit. It is only a benefit if we can make it work for us. If we can reduce our trade deficit and, in fantasy land, even generate a surplus it would be a boost to growth. When we have economic policies, taxation policies and the skills base to compete we can think about it. Right now it seems a continuation of the same policies that have impoverished this country over the last 30 years, turning us into a net debtor country with much of our remaining capacity owned by others.

    The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse than that caused by the pandemic, according to the chairman of the UK fiscal watchdog.

    Richard Hughes said the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had assumed leaving the EU would “reduce our long run GDP by around 4%”, adding in comments to the BBC: “We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%.”


    The Single Market was one of Thatcher’s many fine achievements, it helps grow the economy.
    That's bullshit because it doesn't take into account future industries only what currently exists. I hate to go back to the same theme over and over, however, the UK is now the single largest destination for AI investment in Europe and our market share is probably going to go above 80% over the next couple of years assuming Labour don't do anything stupid like join the single market. That investment is going to be worth tens of billions per year in the UK that we wouldn't get within the EU, by itself it's worth more than anything we may lose from not being in the single market.

    These analyses always, always fail to take into account the something where there was previously nothing factor. AI was previously a global nothing, now it is the largest and fastest growing industry in the world and the UK has a huge role to play in it while the EU has regulated itself into a cul-de-sac. Regulatory flexibility is worth more to us as a nation than anything the single market will ever be worth, we're about to vary our regulations on biotech which my old colleagues tell me will be worth billions in investment in the UK as money pours in to attract the best and brightest across Europe, people who don't want to move to the US or Asia but are happy to live and work here and create value where the EU has stifled innovation yet again.
    You are possibly correct on this, and any deals with the EU must not give away what's likely the only real benefit of Brexit.

    I suspect Europe will have the same realisation about the downside of regulation fairly soon (a few politicians already have), but will take much longer to change than we can do in our own.

    Rejoiners (of which I still count myself one) need to be realistic about this.
    Brexit is like having a baby

    Except the baby turned out to have some weird mental affliction which meant that it screamed every 2-3 hours. As a baby. As a toddler. On and on

    At one point you were thinking of giving it up for adoption. Even the mother that really wanted it was coming to this point of view

    And then around the age of 4 the baby-hating father - who never wanted it - noticed that the child was unexpectedly brilliant at football. And now it’s showing a definite indeed striking gift for music - quite uncanny

    Hmmm. The father tilts his head as the child plays the Bach violin adagio with exquisite beauty and… he smiles. For possibly the first time since this howling brat was born
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,209
    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Twitter rumours that Trump has a team of people going through the JFK assassination files and preparing them for release.

    This is a promise he made to RFK Jr, who said that he wants to find out what the government actually knows about the deaths of his father and his uncle.

    https://x.com/gunthereagleman/status/1882261069630173224

    I'd like to see them myself. I hope Trump's team doesn't selectively release parts to support a narrative, but instead release the raw files so we can have a play with them.
    Which do you think is more likely ?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,067
    RobD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Barnesian said:

    Good morning

    Reeves wants a third runway at Heathrow and Kemi needs to support this 100%

    It is exactly what should be at the forefront of any growth agenda

    Mind you, Khan and Burnham with others will be furious but the interesting one is Starmer who has opposed this as well, but with Starmer he will just change his position once again which would be no surprise

    Gatwick can be expanded to the same extent for an estimated £2b - 10% of the cost of a third runway at Heathrow and far quicker. That is why airlines are opposed to a third runway at Heathrow. And they aren't Nimbys.

    It is argued that Gatwick isn't a hub airport but the strong trend is to point to point. A third runway at Heathrow wouldn't be operational until the mid 2030s.

    I think there is a knee jerk anti London reaction in some places.
    I don't, I have seen some comments asking what is there for the North but that is hardly being anti London.

    Some MP's are in favour of Heathrow 3, Like Cat McKinnell in Newcastle, as they see it as helping growth in the regions.
    My sister-in-law lives in Newcastle but often has to travel to London for meetings.

    The BA domestic and short-haul operation is the first to get binned in poor weather, which has a knock-on effect on the rest of the operation, connecting flights etc.

    With the third runway more cities would become daily commutable to London, and there would be many more connection opportunities to regional airports especially at the margins. Places like Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester, Leeds, Cardiff, could all have half-hourly services to LHR at peak hours, as smaller planes could be used that don’t go to Heathrow at the moment because the landing slots are too expensive.

    At the moment a lot of this regional connecting traffic goes out via Amsterdam on KLM, so the Dutch get the money.
    Transport from LHR to Westminster is 60 minutes according to Google Maps. Check it.
    Transport from Gatwick to Westminster is 50 minutes.

    Fly to Gatwick. There is a strong case for expanding Gatwick capacity.
    To be honest , our years of worldwide international travel was always out of Heathrow and I simply do not understand why anyone would promote Gatwick over Heathrow
    Gatwick is much cheaper and quicker to get into London.

    You can also fly to 85 international destinations with Emirates.
    https://www.emirates.com/uk/english/destinations/flights-from-london-gatwick/
    Certainly isn’t quicker to get into London from Gatwick compared to Heathrow. The train takes half as long, for starters.
    London is a big place. It's easier to get to Gatwick from some bits of London (like where I am coz I'm near a Thameslink station). It's easier to get to Heathrow from other bits.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,772
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    The bizarre assumption in the header that membership of the SM would magically create growth here is just irritating. Membership did not increase our growth, it increased our trade deficit. That meant the benefits of our (excessive) consumption were felt elsewhere, not here. To be absolutely clear about it a trade deficit is measured as a negative when assessing growth. The larger the deficit the more it negatively impacts on growth.

    So why does anyone think that membership of the SM would increase growth? What is the evidence that we are more competitive than when we left the SM? What new opportunities are available to us that would improve our export capacity? I am seeing the reverse. Germany is really struggling at the moment, on the edge of recession, and has been for a few years now. I don't see additional demand for UK products or services there. France is not much better. Overall the EU is growing quite slowly, dragged down by German underperformance.

    If we were to make a go of the SM we would need years and years of major investment in our industry to boost productivity. We might, arguably, have started that thanks to Hunt's more generous write off provisions but we need to do so much more. We need to boost our skills levels. We need to think about how it could be made more attractive to employ people in the UK rather than elsewhere in the SM. Reeves' NI changes, of course, had the opposite effect.

    Membership of the SM can be a good or a bad but it is not a given benefit. It is only a benefit if we can make it work for us. If we can reduce our trade deficit and, in fantasy land, even generate a surplus it would be a boost to growth. When we have economic policies, taxation policies and the skills base to compete we can think about it. Right now it seems a continuation of the same policies that have impoverished this country over the last 30 years, turning us into a net debtor country with much of our remaining capacity owned by others.

    The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse than that caused by the pandemic, according to the chairman of the UK fiscal watchdog.

    Richard Hughes said the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had assumed leaving the EU would “reduce our long run GDP by around 4%”, adding in comments to the BBC: “We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%.”


    The Single Market was one of Thatcher’s many fine achievements, it helps grow the economy.
    That's bullshit because it doesn't take into account future industries only what currently exists. I hate to go back to the same theme over and over, however, the UK is now the single largest destination for AI investment in Europe and our market share is probably going to go above 80% over the next couple of years assuming Labour don't do anything stupid like join the single market. That investment is going to be worth tens of billions per year in the UK that we wouldn't get within the EU, by itself it's worth more than anything we may lose from not being in the single market.

    These analyses always, always fail to take into account the something where there was previously nothing factor. AI was previously a global nothing, now it is the largest and fastest growing industry in the world and the UK has a huge role to play in it while the EU has regulated itself into a cul-de-sac. Regulatory flexibility is worth more to us as a nation than anything the single market will ever be worth, we're about to vary our regulations on biotech which my old colleagues tell me will be worth billions in investment in the UK as money pours in to attract the best and brightest across Europe, people who don't want to move to the US or Asia but are happy to live and work here and create value where the EU has stifled innovation yet again.
    My preference is, instead of Rejoining, to adopt @Richard_Tyndall 's plan of EFTA/EEA instead. Would that also mess up AI?

This discussion has been closed.