Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Not Another One?! – politicalbetting.com

1246789

Comments

  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295

    What I find most trying, is that people are not prepared to look at the case for why Starmer might end up being successful (I put this at 50/50), instead they just bleat "he is crap".

    He reformed the Labour party in five years, no other leader has ever done that and been as successful as him. I wish people would question why, as opposed to just shouting.

    Because he has no evidence of owning a plan, or even an idea - see social care now shunted off to 2028 - and indeed the Times has just revealed he came into office and was horrified to discover “there was no plan”

    In the absence of this we have had six months of dithering and grift and then a catastrophic budget. What makes you think it’s going to change?
  • The next few weeks will show The Government in Full Act and Fix mode.

    That will begin to look very appealing to the 80% who want serious politics, serious politicians and serious solutions to everyday problems affecting 98% of the population who aren't millionaires or billionaires.

    That should be the buzz word..

    SERIOUS
    I don't really buy into the hype you generate - I think you take it almost too far the other way - but I do think Starmer's one niche is that he's a serious politician doing serious things. And tackling serious problems.

    That was something Streeting I think communicated very well. If - and it's a very large if - Starmer is successful his seriousness will be an asset. If he's not, it will be a large negative.

    Personally I think it will be one of Streeting, Phillipson, Rayner, leading Labour into the next election. My money is personally on Streeting.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766

    What I find most trying, is that people are not prepared to look at the case for why Starmer might end up being successful (I put this at 50/50), instead they just bleat "he is crap".

    He reformed the Labour party in five years, no other leader has ever done that and been as successful as him. I wish people would question why, as opposed to just shouting.

    I suppose the main issue is that he has done little to justify his majority. That's a result of a split opposition. He has no vision, no plan and cant take people with him as a result. He's the Chauncey Gardener of UK politics,
  • Shecorns88Shecorns88 Posts: 374
    Leon said:

    This has been explained to you. The gangs story emerged because of one paragraph of one judicial sentencing remarks (in Oxford) going viral due to its being so indescribably awful

    This virality got the attention of many, and many then had to explain the entire “grooming gangs” scandal from alpha to omega. The utter gobsmacking scale of it and stunning horror of it, and the abject banana republic failure of the UK state to deal with it properly - over decades - got major social media figures (especially Americans, not all) wading in

    Britain is now an object of initial contempt and loathing. It’s really not good. See here

    “This sort of thing is bound to be very anecdotal; but my very apolitical friends in Canada are asking me to explain what is wrong with the UK, having read about the grooming gangs, and I can't really begin to explain.”

    https://x.com/yuanyi_z/status/1875617876436250737?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    Rabid right wingers in Canada chat to a rabid right winger in UK

    Is that the best you can do.

    (some may think your Bot has beaten you... Bravo AI)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    Leon said:

    Indeed. It really is as simple as that. And for all the hyperventilation about Jenrick he is saying the basic if uncomfortable truth

    He’s ALSO a conniving rat of a politician who is shamelessly exploiting a national scandal and hoping to position himself to take over from Kemi in a year when the country has swung hard right and the Tories will need to unite with Reform
    Muslims have no place in Britain is the message. It's neither true nor (for those saying it) uncomfortable. The opposite in fact on both counts.
  • Like, there was more to Johnson winning in 2019 than just "Corbyn is crap". I actually found the way Johnson won really interesting, as I think has been discussed before, Cummings and co studied the 2017 Labour manifesto in depth and took many of the policies. In my view, that was a stroke of genius.

    Johnson was a terrible PM - but the way he won was worth studying. Same for Cameron. Same for Starmer.

    Take the ideological blinkers off. Starmer just won one of the largest majorities ever. Very few people seem to be interested in the why.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited January 5
    DavidL said:

    Completely agree. But I am not sure I can see it happening.
    But surely it *was* announced that there would be cross-party talks a day or two ago. THis isn't the first post-thread since then to [edit] imply otherwise (but I may be misreading).

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jan/03/uk-adult-social-care-cross-party-talks-casey-commission

    '“We will have cross-party talks next month,” Streeting said. “And I’m really encouraged by the fact that since the election, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and Reform have all said that they want to work across-party on this, and those talks will begin next month.

    “We will work on the setup of the commission. We will work throughout the commission, and I hope that when the commission reports ahead of the next general election, we can all agree on the direction on social care for the long term. In the meantime, this government is getting on with the job.”

    The cross-party talks will be focused on getting buy-in for reform across parliament. Streeting said: “We want to make sure that from the outset of this commission that other political parties are bought into the commission and have a chance to feed into the commission’s terms of reference and have a say in how they want to engage with the commission during its working.”'
  • Shecorns88Shecorns88 Posts: 374

    Why does he want her to fk up the economy ?
    You really don't have any coherent alternatives do you.

    Same old Tories

    Learnt nothing
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295

    Rabid right wingers in Canada chat to a rabid right winger in UK

    Is that the best you can do.

    (some may think your Bot has beaten you... Bravo AI)
    Er, he’s a respected professor of international law

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    Wes Streeting would be a VERY good Labour leader. If he takes over, odds of a Labour majority will be high IMHO.

    Streeting is more New Labour, Starmer is Brownite/Ed Milibandiite Labour. So if Starmer went he would be a good alternative
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,541

    Is it possible to ban Tweets? As I have said, I won't be posting them anymore as they are just misinformation and radicalisation these days. I would ban any social media links in fact, not exclusively a Twitter problem.

    A good ten percent of your posts here involve calling for a ban on this or that.

    No thanks.
  • Carnyx said:

    But surely it *was* announced that there would be cross-party talks a day or two ago. THis isn't the first post since then to attack Labour for not going this route, for some reason.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jan/03/uk-adult-social-care-cross-party-talks-casey-commission

    '“We will have cross-party talks next month,” Streeting said. “And I’m really encouraged by the fact that since the election, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and Reform have all said that they want to work across-party on this, and those talks will begin next month.

    “We will work on the setup of the commission. We will work throughout the commission, and I hope that when the commission reports ahead of the next general election, we can all agree on the direction on social care for the long term. In the meantime, this government is getting on with the job.”

    The cross-party talks will be focused on getting buy-in for reform across parliament. Streeting said: “We want to make sure that from the outset of this commission that other political parties are bought into the commission and have a chance to feed into the commission’s terms of reference and have a say in how they want to engage with the commission during its working.”'
    What exactly is supposed to be wrong with this approach? It just sounds like grown-up, sensible politics to me.

    If only we could do the same with the NHS itself.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    DavidL said:

    Completely agree. But I am not sure I can see it happening.
    Nor can I.
  • Shecorns88Shecorns88 Posts: 374
    Leon said:

    Er, he’s a respected professor of international law

    Stanley Unwin was a Professor

    He spouted a load of jumbled up crap too
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766

    You really don't have any coherent alternatives do you.

    Same old Tories

    Learnt nothing
    I rather think it's Labour who lack the plan B. But then they dont have a Plan A either.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    I've just been out with a tape measure. 17cm of snow. Stopped falling for the moment.

    No real man needs a tape measure for 17 cm...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,482
    Leon said:

    This has been explained to you. The gangs story emerged because of one paragraph of one judicial sentencing remarks (in Oxford) going viral due to its being so indescribably awful

    This virality got the attention of many, and many then had to explain the entire “grooming gangs” scandal from alpha to omega. The utter gobsmacking scale of it and stunning horror of it, and the abject banana republic failure of the UK state to deal with it properly - over decades - got major social media figures (especially Americans, not all) wading in

    Britain is now an object of initial contempt and loathing. It’s really not good. See here

    “This sort of thing is bound to be very anecdotal; but my very apolitical friends in Canada are asking me to explain what is wrong with the UK, having read about the grooming gangs, and I can't really begin to explain.”

    https://x.com/yuanyi_z/status/1875617876436250737?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    An international light is being shone on the UK in a way that it hasn't previously and a lot of people are astonished by what it has revealed.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/11871975/Child-molester-given-longer-sentence-as-victims-are-Asian.html

    A child molester who abused two Asian girls was rightly given a longer sentence than if his victims had been white because Asian sex crime victims suffer more, a leading judge has ruled.

    Mr Justice Walker said it was proper for paedophile Jamal Muhammed Raheem Ul Nasir to have been given a tougher than normal sentence because his victims were Asian.

    The judge who jailed him, Sally Cahill QC, specifically said that the fact the victims were Asian had been factored in as an "aggravating feature" when passing sentence.

    She stated that the victims and their families had suffered particular "shame" in their communities because of what had happened to them.

    Additionally, there were cultural concerns that the girls' future prospects of being regarded as a "good catch" for arranged marriages might be damaged.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,092
    Has Musk turned on Farage now? Very odd
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited January 5

    Is it possible to ban Tweets? As I have said, I won't be posting them anymore as they are just misinformation and radicalisation these days. I would ban any social media links in fact, not exclusively a Twitter problem.

    Trouble is that some of us don't pay Mr Musk any money so whether we can see tweets discussed on here is a matter of luck given the changes.

    And not all tweets are problematic in themselves.

    Edit: maybe quote them?

    BTW Horse - I hope you saw the discussion of hearing aids yesterday in view of your evident concerns for your father, in case it was of any interest.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,973
    edited January 5

    I suppose the main issue is that he has done little to justify his majority. That's a result of a split opposition. He has no vision, no plan and cant take people with him as a result. He's the Chauncey Gardener of UK politics,
    Not really - if you add all the Reform votes to the Conservatives, and all the Lib Dem votes to Labour, you still get a "left-wing" majority of nearly 400 seats on a lead of 8 points.

    And LD voters are far closer to Labour voters than Reform voters are to Conservatives. Indeed, on some topics the remaining Conservative vote ( BigG trad types) are closer to Labour than they are Reform.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    kinabalu said:

    Muslims have no place in Britain is the message. It's neither true nor (for those saying it) uncomfortable. The opposite in fact on both counts.
    No he doesn’t. In the tweet we are discussing he says

    “The foreign nationals responsible must be deported”

    That’s as far as he gets to your absurd caricature. Maybe he has said more outrageous things elsewhere? If so, citation required
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    kinabalu said:

    Muslims have no place in Britain is the message. It's neither true nor (for those saying it) uncomfortable. The opposite in fact on both counts.
    I haven't seen Jenrick's latest remarks though I doubt that is what he actually said. But again all your are doing is ignoring the actual issue and instead insinuating motives for the opposition. That ain't good enough.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,541
    “Ms Siddiq declined to comment, but a source close to her said: 'Tulip's previous understanding of how she gained ownership of the property has changed.”

    She's a goner.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    carnforth said:

    “Ms Siddiq declined to comment, but a source close to her said: 'Tulip's previous understanding of how she gained ownership of the property has changed.”

    She's a goner.

    Hahahahaha

    Yeah that’s not optimal
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,410
    kinabalu said:

    I'm not particularly disappointed.
    You must have had pretty low expectations for Starmer and his government then.

    Expected the sleaze, expected the failure to plan, expected the cowardice, expected the inability to chose the right battles.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135

    Is that really good enough though? The sort of war Russia has waged ought to be clearly defeated. If the west isn't capable of doing that against a declining power the message for the future isn't good.
    The West cannot win if it does not want to win, but too many in the West are scared of what Russia losing looks like to want to win. I agree with you that victory against Russia in Ukraine makes the West safer in the future.

    Unfortunately, there is not much prospect of the West getting the political leadership that will push for victory. Forcing Russia into a ceasefire might be the best that can be achieved with the timid leadership in Washington, Berlin, London and Paris - although I still hope that Ukraine will prove me wrong and achieve victory regardless.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,017

    The more people tell me the country has swung hard right the less I believe them.

    I really think the level to which day after day, week after week, literally since day one, people here tell us how bad Labour is, really makes me think that no, they aren't that bad. The Tories are in total denial as to why they lost and seemingly don't care enough to change again.

    Labour may be terrible - but they are still ahead in the polls. And I don't see anything the Tories have to change that. I can't even see a recession helping them much.

    Reform is much harder to counter. But ultimately Labour can only deal with that through delivery, not shouting louder. Starmer seems to understand that and whilst being a truly terrible communicator, if you read the insights, he does truly understand how dangerous immigration is for his party, unlike any other leader Labour has had in recent memory. He knows he will be out on his ear if he doesn't get control over it.

    I will be watching the polls when immigration inevitably declines next year, thanks to Sunak's policies ironically.

    What is happening is the global billionaire elite are understanding the advantages of angering and radicalising the population. It not only drives revenue and advertising on their media platforms but also deflects from them taking an ever increasing proportion of wealth and is a good way for them to strengthen their political control.

    They can only radicalise a few % each year but over time, and they will sustain this, they are going to completely re-write the political and social geography of the west.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    Eabhal said:

    Not really - if you add all the Reform votes to the Conservatives, and all the Lib Dem votes to Labour, you still get a "left-wing" majority of nearly 400 seats on a lead of 8 points.

    And LD voters are far closer to Labour voters than Reform voters are to Conservatives. Indeed, on some topics the remaining Conservative vote ( BigG trad types) are closer to Labour than they are Reform.
    You get a majority for people who wanted a tired failing government out of office.

    Sadly it's been replaced by another.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    What exactly is supposed to be wrong with this approach? It just sounds like grown-up, sensible politics to me.

    If only we could do the same with the NHS itself.
    As I mentioned the other day, and as happened in Scotland [mutatis mutandis] with several other matters, the danger is that the other parties agree the new changes and then suddenly run and hide when they are implemented, saying " a big boy [points at Labour] made me do it and run away". But it has to be tried.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766

    You must have had pretty low expectations for Starmer and his government then.

    Expected the sleaze, expected the failure to plan, expected the cowardice, expected the inability to chose the right battles.
    But just not all of it together in 5 short months,
  • Shecorns88Shecorns88 Posts: 374
    Eabhal said:

    Not really - if you add all the Reform votes to the Conservatives, and all the Lib Dem votes to Labour, you still get a "left-wing" majority of nearly 400 seats on a lead of 8 points.

    And LD voters are far closer to Labour voters than Reform voters are to Conservatives. Indeed, on some topics the remaining Conservative vote ( BigG trad types) are closer to Labour than they are Reform.
    Expect the masterstroke in 2028

    When Starmer ans Streeting Co opt Davey and D Cooper in to delivering the integration of social care in to primary care with a loose electoral pact to deliver over the following 5 years
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    There is more than enough psephological evidence, none of the above/leftfield voters don’t see their natural home in Labour or the Conservatives, when those parties have sensible centrist policies and leadership.

    Farmers wouldn’t even let Farage speak at the big rally, becuase of his brexit association. They let Davey speak.

    Majority of electorate have come to loathe Brexit, and that block of votes will get bigger over the coming years with “this is no better as promised, let’s do something different.”

    This block of votes associate existence of Brexit with Farage and the Conservatives, and they actively vote as a block to hurt Farage and the Conservatives as much as possible.

    Block 1 Lab 33.7% - 412 seats; LibDem 12.2% - 72 seats; Green 6.7% - 4 seats.
    Block 2 Conservatives 23.7% - 121 seats.
    Block 3 Reform 14.3% - 5 seats.

    So there’s two solid psephological reasons Farage has little chance of being PM - FPTP, and fact he is not fresh change, but is face of the failed big change from a decade ago.
    Depends, if the main 3 split their votes near equally Farage under FPTP could come through the middle, especially with the hard Brexit vote united behind him while Remainers split between Labour, LDs and Greens and SNP and soft Leavers go Tory.

    For example if Reform reached 28% they become largest party with 236 seats to 159 for Labour, 123 for the Tories and 70 for the LDs.

    If Farage matches the 31% his Brexit Party got in the 2019 EU Parliament elections then Reform actually win an overall majority with 331 MPs to 99 for Labour, 83 for the Tories and 69 for the LDs
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934
    Carnyx said:

    But surely it *was* announced that there would be cross-party talks a day or two ago. THis isn't the first post-thread since then to [edit] imply otherwise (but I may be misreading).

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jan/03/uk-adult-social-care-cross-party-talks-casey-commission

    '“We will have cross-party talks next month,” Streeting said. “And I’m really encouraged by the fact that since the election, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and Reform have all said that they want to work across-party on this, and those talks will begin next month.

    “We will work on the setup of the commission. We will work throughout the commission, and I hope that when the commission reports ahead of the next general election, we can all agree on the direction on social care for the long term. In the meantime, this government is getting on with the job.”

    The cross-party talks will be focused on getting buy-in for reform across parliament. Streeting said: “We want to make sure that from the outset of this commission that other political parties are bought into the commission and have a chance to feed into the commission’s terms of reference and have a say in how they want to engage with the commission during its working.”'
    My breath is well and truly bated @Carnyx
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295

    An international light is being shone on the UK in a way that it hasn't previously and a lot of people are astonished by what it has revealed.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/11871975/Child-molester-given-longer-sentence-as-victims-are-Asian.html

    A child molester who abused two Asian girls was rightly given a longer sentence than if his victims had been white because Asian sex crime victims suffer more, a leading judge has ruled.

    Mr Justice Walker said it was proper for paedophile Jamal Muhammed Raheem Ul Nasir to have been given a tougher than normal sentence because his victims were Asian.

    The judge who jailed him, Sally Cahill QC, specifically said that the fact the victims were Asian had been factored in as an "aggravating feature" when passing sentence.

    She stated that the victims and their families had suffered particular "shame" in their communities because of what had happened to them.

    Additionally, there were cultural concerns that the girls' future prospects of being regarded as a "good catch" for arranged marriages might be damaged.
    Oh god. I remember that case. Sweet Jesus Christ let’s just close down Britain
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198
    Plenty of pe

    I rather think it's Labour who lack the plan B. But then they dont have a Plan A either.
    They have found out not being the Tories is just not enough.

    It’s a hard lesson for what was the so called govt in waiting, when in opposition.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    edited January 5
    DavidL said:

    I am not saying that we do not implement any of any Inquiry Recommendations. I am saying that we need to be selective and think them through first. My concern with the "scorecard" approach which seems to be being argued for with the HoL report that @Cyclefree adverts to is that there would be pressure to act without doing either of these things. This would not be a step forward.
    I look forward to reading her book for more clarity on such questions.
    But I think the point she's making is that almost no recommendations are acted upon - and most egregiously the ones which are made regularly.

    You make a fair point, but if we are going to "be selective and think them through", governments should at the very least be doing so publicly, in a timely manner, and explaining why they aren't adopting a given recommendation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    The West cannot win if it does not want to win, but too many in the West are scared of what Russia losing looks like to want to win. I agree with you that victory against Russia in Ukraine makes the West safer in the future.

    Unfortunately, there is not much prospect of the West getting the political leadership that will push for victory. Forcing Russia into a ceasefire might be the best that can be achieved with the timid leadership in Washington, Berlin, London and Paris - although I still hope that Ukraine will prove me wrong and achieve victory regardless.
    Hopefully Merz wins in February as he has been clear Berlin must send more military aid to Zelensky
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,400

    Expect the masterstroke in 2028

    When Starmer ans Streeting Co opt Davey and D Cooper in to delivering the integration of social care in to primary care with a loose electoral pact to deliver over the following 5 years
    This D Cooper?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    Taz said:

    Plenty of pe

    They have found out not being the Tories is just not enough.

    It’s a hard lesson for what was the so called govt in waiting, when in opposition.
    Still it gives them the chance to close down the rest of manufacturing over the next 4 years.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198

    I don't really buy into the hype you generate - I think you take it almost too far the other way - but I do think Starmer's one niche is that he's a serious politician doing serious things. And tackling serious problems.

    That was something Streeting I think communicated very well. If - and it's a very large if - Starmer is successful his seriousness will be an asset. If he's not, it will be a large negative.

    Personally I think it will be one of Streeting, Phillipson, Rayner, leading Labour into the next election. My money is personally on Streeting.
    It will be a woman, I just cannot see labour making another middle aged white man leader.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,564
    algarkirk said:

    OTOH why should so much of the internet be immune from the legal responsibilities placed on BBC, Times, Sun, publishers etc? And if that immunity is to be challenged how else can it be done except by regarding someone as a quasi publisher. This is a very new conundrum, and we are not at the right point yet.
    Not sure it would be practical on a site where debate on difficult issues is part of the point - but OpenAI have a free-to-use 'moderation' API that's very easy to use. It just gives you a basic response on if the content is flagged, and the scores for various categories which you can then use to decide on your local thresholds. I haven't read the Bill in detail - but some of the stuff I do have to deal with - just showing an attempt at compliance is half the battle if questions get asked.

    If it'd be any help I could probably run quite a few recent posts through it and let the mod's have a look at what comes back?

    @TSE @rcs1000 - let me know if it'd be of any interest.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,482

    Has Musk turned on Farage now? Very odd

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1875904634419859928

    The Reform Party needs a new leader. Farage doesn’t have what it takes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934
    Nigelb said:

    I look forward to reading her book for more clarity on such questions.
    But I think the point she's making is that almost no recommendations are acted upon - and most egregiously the ones which are made regularly.

    You make a fair point, but if we are going to "be selective and think them through", governments should at the very least be doing so publicly, in a timely manner, and explaining why they aren't adopting a given recommendation.
    I have no problem with the long grass being cut from time to time to see what's still there.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902

    Mendacity ? Duplicity ?
    I don't care.
    I'd rather talk about what they should be doing, and aren't, rather than what they've correctly decided not to do.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,612
    Off topic...

    A Jet2 flight from Newcastle to Fuertaventura is diverting to Manchester. Currently doing loops over the Pennines.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198
    Leon said:

    Hahahahaha

    Yeah that’s not optimal
    But shecorns was saying the other day it was a nothing story. So there’s nowt to see here surely ?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,973
    Trying to buy a PC monitor, budget about £300. This is near impossible with model numbers like 27GP850P-B-M27Q-XG27ACS. Is that the one with the USB-C port? HDMI 2.1? 0.5ms?

    Even worse than wireless printers IMO. Even reddit can't help.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,429
    It just shows you what musk is like. I wonder how long it will take for Trump and him to fall out as well.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,825

    What I find most trying, is that people are not prepared to look at the case for why Starmer might end up being successful (I put this at 50/50), instead they just bleat "he is crap".

    He reformed the Labour party in five years, no other leader has ever done that and been as successful as him. I wish people would question why, as opposed to just shouting.

    He may end up being successful - which would be excellent - I voted for him.

    The 'case' however needs to come from government and parliament. The stuff he does has to fit into a coherent narrative about who we are, where we are going and how we are going to get there.

    Two test cases: How does the social care being kicked out to 2028 and after fit the 'NHS/social care are linked problems to which we have the solution' story?

    Reeves imposed NI taxes after promising they would not rise. The tax rises were to fill a previously unknown 'black hole'. As they were unknown and necessary, why tell untruths about the NI promise you had made?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1875904634419859928

    The Reform Party needs a new leader. Farage doesn’t have what it takes.
    Outrage at Musk’s interference in 3..2…
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,394

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1875904634419859928

    The Reform Party needs a new leader. Farage doesn’t have what it takes.
    I thought Farage told Laura K that he supported Musk!
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198

    Still it gives them the chance to close down the rest of manufacturing over the next 4 years.
    A small price to pay to get to net zero, I’m sure.

    They’re certainly doing us no favours at the moment.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313
    Eabhal said:

    Trying to buy a PC monitor, budget about £300. This is near impossible with model numbers like 27GP850P-B-M27Q-XG27ACS. Is that the one with the USB-C port? HDMI 2.1? 0.5ms?

    Even worse than wireless printers IMO. Even reddit can't help.

    The manufacturer’s website surely has the specifications?
  • If Andy Burnham hates the policies of Labour so much, why doesn't he resign and stand for leader himself?

    Of course, this is the same Andy "Weathervane" Burnham who was against, then for, then against Corbyn. He has literally no views at all that aren't what he woke up thinking.

    A right winger in the Blair and Brown days, apparently he's now on the left.

    The hype for this man, utterly escapes me.
  • Musk trying to pick the leader of Reform UK and yet again interfere in our democracy is a disgrace. What business does he have chiming in.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,378

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1875904634419859928

    The Reform Party needs a new leader. Farage doesn’t have what it takes.
    Looks like Tommy has cost Nige a lot of money.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    edited January 5

    The West cannot win if it does not want to win, but too many in the West are scared of what Russia losing looks like to want to win. I agree with you that victory against Russia in Ukraine makes the West safer in the future.

    Unfortunately, there is not much prospect of the West getting the political leadership that will push for victory. Forcing Russia into a ceasefire might be the best that can be achieved with the timid leadership in Washington, Berlin, London and Paris - although I still hope that Ukraine will prove me wrong and achieve victory regardless.
    But what sort of ceasefire? That is the question. One where Russia remains sanctioned and heading towards the economic cliff or one where all the sanctions are removed and we basically go back to normal as if nothing happened with everyone recognising the new territories of Russia and rump Ukraine having no security guarantees going forward. The difference between the two positions is massive.
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 326
    I see that Tulip Siddiq, Ed Davey, George Freeman and Steve Barclay are all MPs who use the postnomial FRSA ( Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts). In fact anyone can become an FRSA on payment of £75. What a bunch of chancers
  • Just so it's clear, Labour is up by one point in the latest Deltapoll poll, Tories down 4, Reform up 4.
  • Shecorns88Shecorns88 Posts: 374

    I rather think it's Labour who lack the plan B. But then they dont have a Plan A either.
    Thats why then have commenced over 50 policy changes, real time announcements and initiates in past 6 months and far more to come in the next few weeks.

    Small real funded improvements all formulating in to big plans.

    You build brick by brick by brick a step at a time.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840

    Good morning one and all. Although, weather-wise, it isn't, and doesn't seem to be elsewhere!

    I rarely agree with Mr Cumbria5, although I always read his (?her) comments with interest. However I agree with him on this, (although I have a caveat about what responsibility a 27 year junior barrister would have had over anything in 1989!) it is high time that the simple act of setting up an Inquiry was not treated as 'job done'; if significant action is deemed to be merited, then that action should be taken.

    Edit; for sense.
    It was a multiply used joke in Yes Minister that the inquiries were a way of kicking the can down the road. Because the conclusions are written in polite legalese, this just makes it easier.

    The problem is that there is enormous resistance to change in the permanent apparatus of government. Politicians change, yet the policies often stay the same.

    We have seen, with Hillsborough, the Blood Scandal, the Post Office (to name but a few) as vast effort expended to prevent more than a token legal comeback.

    In the NHS, after decades of scandals, we now have a register. So that managers who are fired for gross misconduct in one part of the NHS are not rehired in another.

    The police have promised to deal with the issue of officers resigning from one force - shutting down investigations - then joining another. Maybe next decade.

    People talk of political accountability. It is clear that some regard political accountability as Pontius Pilot’s washbasin. Once the ritual has been performed (minister changed), all others are absolved.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295

    Looks like Tommy has cost Nige a lot of money.
    This could be the end of the Musk/Trump bromance as well (not that it was ever going to last)

    Trump sees Farage as an ally. If not a friend (if he has friends)

    Alternatively it could be Musk doing one line too many and he’ll change his mind in 2 hours
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,482

    Musk trying to pick the leader of Reform UK and yet again interfere in our democracy is a disgrace. What business does he have chiming in.

    He’s English. We are a global people.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    Nigelb said:

    I don't care.
    I'd rather talk about what they should be doing, and aren't, rather than what they've correctly decided not to do.
    Oh piss off Mr B. For 2 years you ramped a competent government coming in to power. The grown ups will be back in charge you told me. You ignored all the signs to the contrary. I was wrong too I expected continuity Sunak not this total shitshow. I repeatedly warned you that Labour having no scrutiny during the election campaign would result in a collapse of support when in government.

    And when I warned you back in July that they had no plan, no common sense and all their" policies" were just slogans you told me I was wrong and that time and the budget would put it all right, It hasnt and things will keep going bad until Starmer reshuffles or resigns to give Labour a chance.

    I assume from the current low point Labour should see a recovery of sorts but this lot are so incompetent and have so many of the wrong policies anything could happen.

    Meanwhile the country has another 5 wasted years.

  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198

    I thought Farage told Laura K that he supported Musk!
    He supported his right to free speech is what he said.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    algarkirk said:

    How interesting. The Jenrick tweet (or whatever it is) speaks of jailing 'officials'. How wonder how much this term extends to 'Conservative ministers from PM downwards from 2010-2024'.
    It’s more than misguided, it’s bordering on criminal intent to rewrite true history.

    The likes of Jenrick and PBers like LuckyGuy and others turning these victims into a political football, is a great betrayal of them.

    Police would pick up ladies from where they were being raped, abused and exploited, move them somewhere safer, a week later they were back at the place.

    institutionalised cover ups, cowardice, multi racial wokism the reason the culture was that charges hardly ever made, and the gangs not gone after? Or an element of fact that grooming and coercion was not properly understood by society at large?

    On topic, another inquiry needed? In my opinion yes, and Badenoch and Farage are right that it’s needs to be a broad one. Why? Because has anything actually changed? Is grooming and control and coercion actually understood as hideous crime now and successfully prosecuted today? It’s not just the predatory gangs, they just small part of wider picture of relationships of grooming and control and coercion to abuse, and awful rates of bringing charges and getting convictions right now, letting victims down, right across the board of all of it.

    So the saddest part of the Shadow Justice Secretaries gibberish, for opportunist political point scoring, he makes out the problem was all specific, historical and in the past, not an awful problem alive today to be dealt with by multi party consensus, to change societies understanding and culture.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,535
    Eabhal said:

    Trying to buy a PC monitor, budget about £300. This is near impossible with model numbers like 27GP850P-B-M27Q-XG27ACS. Is that the one with the USB-C port? HDMI 2.1? 0.5ms?

    Even worse than wireless printers IMO. Even reddit can't help.

    What do you want?

    screen resolution FHD, QHD or 4k
    screen size 24 or 27"
    purpose - gaming, serious gaming, office work or both...

    and what are you planning to connect it to as a Mac requires something different to Windows...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,914
    Eabhal said:

    Not really - if you add all the Reform votes to the Conservatives, and all the Lib Dem votes to Labour, you still get a "left-wing" majority of nearly 400 seats on a lead of 8 points.

    And LD voters are far closer to Labour voters than Reform voters are to Conservatives. Indeed, on some topics the remaining Conservative vote ( BigG trad types) are closer to Labour than they are Reform.
    I am not close to Labour under any circumstances

    I could be to the Lib Dems but I do not agree on their EU policy

    Simply I remain a conservative and will vote conservative, unless I can tactically vote out a Labour candidate
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198
    edited January 5
    ..
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    edited January 5
    .

    Oh piss off Mr B. For 2 years you ramped a competent government coming in to power. The grown ups will be back in charge you told me. You ignored all the signs to the contrary. I was wrong too I expected continuity Sunak not this total shitshow. I repeatedly warned you that Labour having no scrutiny during the election campaign would result in a collapse of support when in government.

    And when I warned you back in July that they had no plan, no common sense and all their" policies" were just slogans you told me I was wrong and that time and the budget would put it all right, It hasnt and things will keep going bad until Starmer reshuffles or resigns to give Labour a chance.

    I assume from the current low point Labour should see a recovery of sorts but this lot are so incompetent and have so many of the wrong policies anything could happen.

    Meanwhile the country has another 5 wasted years.

    Piss off yourself, Mr.A.
    I didn't even vote for them.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371

    There is nothing new about the left attacking the right. They think it is their right to do it and to do it with impunity. Musk is actually making politics nicer. People who asked such wonders as how many children Boris had, or wondered who would F*** Ann Widdicombe or tried to justify the last budget really deserve all they will get, especially the loathsome Ian Hislop who must be waiting for a special circle in hell.
    Musk is making politics nicer? How? Is calling for Tommy Robinson to be released making politics nicer? Is predicting imminent civil war in the country making politics nicer?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,400
    Leon said:

    This could be the end of the Musk/Trump bromance as well (not that it was ever going to last)

    Trump sees Farage as an ally. If not a friend (if he has friends)

    Alternatively it could be Musk doing one line too many and he’ll change his mind in 2 hours
    These alliances between populists (of all sorts) are inevitably fragile. Their bases are not the same. Moreover the big concerns that they have are very much not the same.

    I suspect we'll see far bigger alliances falter in similar grounds in the next couple of years. China will fall out of love with Russia, and perhaps badly so.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,914

    Expect the masterstroke in 2028

    When Starmer ans Streeting Co opt Davey and D Cooper in to delivering the integration of social care in to primary care with a loose electoral pact to deliver over the following 5 years
    The recommendations on social care are not due out before 2028 and any idea they will be agreed between parties before GE 2029 to relieve Streeting of having to make a decision is nonsense
  • eekeek Posts: 29,535
    franklyn said:

    I see that Tulip Siddiq, Ed Davey, George Freeman and Steve Barclay are all MPs who use the postnomial FRSA ( Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts). In fact anyone can become an FRSA on payment of £75. What a bunch of chancers

    And £208 a year on top...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,973
    a
    eek said:

    What do you want?

    screen resolution FHD, QHD or 4k
    screen size 24 or 27"
    purpose - gaming, serious gaming, office work or both...

    and what are you planning to connect it to as a Mac requires something different to Windows...
    USB-C for MacBook Air, QHD, 27", mainly office work, photo editing and bit of gaming. Gigabyte M27Q is the closest I've got to so far.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766

    Thats why then have commenced over 50 policy changes, real time announcements and initiates in past 6 months and far more to come in the next few weeks.

    Small real funded improvements all formulating in to big plans.

    You build brick by brick by brick a step at a time.
    Yes, saving the country one frozen pensioner at a time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1875904634419859928

    The Reform Party needs a new leader. Farage doesn’t have what it takes.
    Who do you and Elon reckon then? Tommy Ten Names.

    I can see a couple of hindrances before that can occur.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934

    I am not close to Labour under any circumstances

    I could be to the Lib Dems but I do not agree on their EU policy

    Simply I remain a conservative and will vote conservative, unless I can tactically vote out a Labour candidate
    Would you vote Farage or Tommy Ten Names to get rid of the Commies?
  • To be honest, I still think the farming and winter fuel changes were right.

    The former's impact on Labour's electoral chances I think is limited, the latter I am not sure was worth burning the political capital on.

    But you can't say Labour takes the easy way out of anything. Stupid way out, quite possibly.
  • vinovino Posts: 174
    Hi Cyclefree - a very interesting header and like others I look forward to reading your book - it was Aberfan which led to my working career.


    The Aberfan disaster of October 1966 led to the 1969
    Mines & Quarries (Tips) Act which made further provision
    in relation to tips associated with mines and quarries
    mainly to prevent disused tips constituting a danger to
    members of the public .This was followed by the Mines and Quarries (Tips) Regulations, 1971, setting out the rules to be followed.
    Until the introduction of the Tips Act 1969, there were no
    laws and regulations governing mine and quarry tips and
    spoil tips.

    Nottinghamshire Land Reclamation Team, Planning &
    Economic Department was established in 1970/71 - with 2/3 engineers and associated surveyors, drawing back-up staff. The
    engineers were mainly qualified certificated ex mining
    surveyors. The Authority had to inspect the closed spoil heaps and were allowed using government grants to restore them usually at first to a green afteruse.

    The number of tips inspected in Nottinghamshire today is currently around 80; approximately 50% are within the Authority’s own estate. The remaining tips are owned by private or other public sector landowners. The majority were restored by the Land Reclamation Team.
    As well as the Spoil Heaps came Landfill Sites,disused former railway lines,2 MOD sites and then the former colliery sites.
    I enjoyed my work.

    With regard to Aberfan the attached is good.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgIN8-oI6bE

    Don't be put off by the title.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934

    Yes, saving the country one frozen pensioner at a time.
    Quite right too. I'm spending mine on a drinks package to keep me warm on my Norwegian Fjord cruise.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Okay Elon, you've jumped the shark now.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198
    edited January 5

    Thats why then have commenced over 50 policy changes, real time announcements and initiates in past 6 months and far more to come in the next few weeks.

    Small real funded improvements all formulating in to big plans.

    You build brick by brick by brick a step at a time.
    https://i0.wp.com/www.socialnews.xyz/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/05/3cdbcb08409b973b4f321ae3400654a3-1.jpg?quality=80&zoom=1&ssl=1
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371

    I suppose the main issue is that he has done little to justify his majority. That's a result of a split opposition. He has no vision, no plan and cant take people with him as a result. He's the Chauncey Gardener of UK politics,
    He got the most votes in a majority of seats. That how he has justified his majority. That's all you need to do. That's all he has to do next time.
  • Okay Elon, you've jumped the shark now.

    Seriously, this is where you draw the line?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766

    Quite right too. I'm spending mine on a drinks package to keep me warm on my Norwegian Fjord cruise.
    Hardly surprising.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,535
    Eabhal said:

    a

    USB-C for MacBook Air, QHD, 27", mainly office work, photo editing and bit of gaming. Gigabyte M27Q is the closest I've got to so far.
    I would suggest you find somewhere to look at that screen before taking that approach. I intentionally went for 4k screens because on a Mac QHD doesn't look right while 4k (running at the same resolution) looks great thanks to the font smoothing that's built into MacOS.

    For reference the screens I use are Dell U2720Q - but the replacement version of that is £500 each and the P2723QE doesn't work on MacOS so don't go there..

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,973

    I am not close to Labour under any circumstances

    I could be to the Lib Dems but I do not agree on their EU policy

    Simply I remain a conservative and will vote conservative, unless I can tactically vote out a Labour candidate
    Would you vote Reform to beat Labour?
  • Odds Labour introduces PR in 2028, have we thought about this?
  • I am not close to Labour under any circumstances

    I could be to the Lib Dems but I do not agree on their EU policy

    Simply I remain a conservative and will vote conservative, unless I can tactically vote out a Labour candidate
    Half of Farron's voters are Tories so the premise is untrue.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766

    He got the most votes in a majority of seats. That how he has justified his majority. That's all you need to do. That's all he has to do next time.
    Except he wont and in all likelihood wont be the party leader.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934

    Hardly surprising.
    I'll have to wait half a dozen years mind.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934

    But what sort of ceasefire? That is the question. One where Russia remains sanctioned and heading towards the economic cliff or one where all the sanctions are removed and we basically go back to normal as if nothing happened with everyone recognising the new territories of Russia and rump Ukraine having no security guarantees going forward. The difference between the two positions is massive.
    As Adam Smith pointed out there is a lot of ruin in a nation but Russia has been on a very negative path for the best part of 3 years now. My own belief, supported by the falls in the Ruble, the collapse of the housing market, the insane level of interest rates and the damage being inflicted deep in Russia by Ukraine, is that Putin has only months left and it is not clear what will happen after that other than it will be chaotic and dangerous.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371
    HYUFD said:

    Depends, if the main 3 split their votes near equally Farage under FPTP could come through the middle, especially with the hard Brexit vote united behind him while Remainers split between Labour, LDs and Greens and SNP and soft Leavers go Tory.

    For example if Reform reached 28% they become largest party with 236 seats to 159 for Labour, 123 for the Tories and 70 for the LDs.

    If Farage matches the 31% his Brexit Party got in the 2019 EU Parliament elections then Reform actually win an overall majority with 331 MPs to 99 for Labour, 83 for the Tories and 69 for the LDs
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_reform_20241231.html
    Electoral Calculus is not gospel. It would depend exactly where Reform got that 28% or 31%.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    Omnium said:

    These alliances between populists (of all sorts) are inevitably fragile. Their bases are not the same. Moreover the big concerns that they have are very much not the same.

    I suspect we'll see far bigger alliances falter in similar grounds in the next couple of years. China will fall out of love with Russia, and perhaps badly so.
    Indeed. See also the H1B visa fall-out in the USA, within the Trumpite right. Tho that seems to have calmed down

    Right wing populists also tend to have big egos - maybe all populists do - and therefore find it hard to team up. Too many lead singers in one band

    I've seen some video recently of Musk and Trump together, and you can see on Trump's face the slgiht feeling of "how long do I have to put up with this weirdo"

    Musk is socially awkward, volatile and needy. He's a fantastic leader of engineering projects that require drive, genius, ambition, and absolute loyalty to his vision. As a political player his personality is surely worse than Starmer's
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,392
    An excellent article @Cyclefree. As you may remember @Cyclefree (as we discussed it offline sometime ago) I am supporting the campaigners in one of the less well known scandals. Finally after 12 years we got an NAO and PAC enquiry (yep it took 12 years from being bounced from pillar to post, with no Ombudsman willing to take responsibility, for an investigation). It was damning and the Government finally agreed they were at fault. We are now at the let's ignore that admission and any responsibility stage. MPs have raised it in Parliament and ministers have promised meetings, but guess what, months after the promised meetings none have been forthcoming.

    About 20% of the people impacted have died since the scandal arose, including several from the organising committee, sadly one just a few days ago. I'm literally seeing the people I am trying to help drop dead in front of my eyes.

    I would like to provide more details, but it would out me I'm afraid.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,846

    Streeting and Lammy would be no where Chancellor.

    Her biggest worry would be in Darren Jones or Jonathan Reynolds are supremely talented individuals deserving of a full Ninesterial role.
    There are a great many Labour backbenchers (and junior ministers) feeling they deserve promotion. This might become an issue for Starmer's successor, depending when he retires.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371
    franklyn said:

    I see that Tulip Siddiq, Ed Davey, George Freeman and Steve Barclay are all MPs who use the postnomial FRSA ( Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts). In fact anyone can become an FRSA on payment of £75. What a bunch of chancers

    Wikipedia says not anyone can become an FRSA. I quote:

    Fellowship is granted to applicants "who are aligned with the RSA's vision and share in our values."[18] Some prospective fellows are approached by the RSA and invited to join in recognition of their work; some are nominated or "fast-tracked" by existing fellows and RSA staff,[19][20][21] or by partner organisations such as the Churchill Fellowship;[22][23] others make their own applications with accompanied references, which are reviewed by a formal admissions panel consisting of RSA trustees and fellowship councillors.[24][25]
This discussion has been closed.