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PB Predictions Competition 2025 – politicalbetting.com
PB Predictions Competition 2025 – politicalbetting.com
Picture – Matthaeus Loder – The Card Layer – Germanisches Nationalmuseum, Nuremberg
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It was fun setting the questions.
We decided to not add any local election questions due to the material uncertainty about them being held.
Once again I will not be entering the competition to give others a chance to win.
(First excluding people who stole the contest)
Interesting you didn't want to go with any like... who will be the leader of party x or who will be chancellor...
Can be pretty sure the US$/Ruble rate will be double what it is now by this time next year - if they’re lucky! Even if the war ends, Europe’s not buying their gas again.
I think I’ll place a large bet on the Ashes going 5-0 or 4-0 to Australia, as at least there will be something to look forward to when England get whitewashed!
It was Leon's suggestion that she be put in change of an enquiry, "with sweeping powers" that was absurd.
I'll might have added a couple of Govt performance metrics - perhaps NHS waiting lists at the end of 2025 would have been a good one. But these are tricky enough.
It's pretty cool here at the top of Nottinghamshire. 0C with a predicted maximum of 2C today. A miserable several days incoming.
Let me put my personal goals for this year here, so I can find them in 12 months time.
Average of 5k steps per day.
1500 km of cycling.
25 anti-wheelchair barriers to be removed from local thoroughfares. Ideally a further 25 to be promised to be removed.
Lose 6kg of weight *.
* For Imperialists, that is one stone.
"Comparisons with other teenage prodigies are obviously inevitable. But this isn’t Emma Raducanu, because Littler is actually really good."
Ouch.
‘When Alexander of Macedonia was 33, he cried salt tears because there were no more worlds to conquer, Littler’s only 17.’
Of course, this fails if we all try the same approach!
Most unfair that satire having been murdered several years ago that its corpse is now being repeatedly run over by a supercar driven by a weak chinned pervert.
https://x.com/leftwinggc/status/1875106943548924128?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Reform UK is just six points away from becoming the biggest party in parliament, an election predictor has found.
Nigel Farage’s insurgent party could leapfrog both the Conservatives and Labour by gaining a few more percentage points of support, according to the analysis by polling firm Electoral Calculus.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/04/reform-six-points-off-biggest-party-election-prediction/
I think I'll have to revisit what I've got so far on a sunnier morning.
I'm thinking that at the end I may try to see which entrant has the lowest average deviation from the to actual result - that' will test my spreadsheet skills.
I will keep a watch through January for the entries, and post up regular reminders of the questions.
Happy predicting!
Musk also vocally backed Matt Gaetz, with his stream of teenage prostitutes, at least one underage. Their confected outrage has nothing to do with protecting women or children.
UK: benign economy, growth c.1% and inflation c.2%, a couple of rate cuts, borrowing down a bit.
EU: flat to recessionary.
China: very recessionary, lots of money printing.
US: a lot of change coming from the new administration, for which the outcome in the short term is difficult to predict. Their borrowing in 2024 was 50% of the size of the UK economy! A pessimist would say stagflation from tariffs and reduced government spending, and an optimist would say a turbocharged economy from tax cuts and a clampdown on predatory business.
ROW: better than all of the above.
Oil price: down closer to $60
Markets: S&P probably down as ‘big’ industry gets taken on, FTSE probably flat, Germany and China in trouble.
Currencies: buy Greenbacks, sell Euros.
The biggest unknowns are the building situation between China and Taiwan, and the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Nobody will present him as a "a model of British diversity", or praise his "multicultural, multi-market resonance" or whatever embarassing drivel they spouted over the tennis player, as if the fact that somebody can hit a ball or throw a dart slightly better than someone else shows anything at all about a country.
Love the Tesla fluffer popping up in the replies.
https://x.com/CitizenLenz/status/1875000088659124612
The honeymoon period evaporated really rapidly.
For the next election, it’s all up in the air. The issue for Labour is that they are seen as part of the problem - along with the Conservatives and Lib Dem’s, the parties of the Consensus.
Hence the wet fish slap from Starmer against the Blob. He needs to change things to move that needle. And it’s proving very, very difficult.
Keir Starmer’s new year message to his team was drown out the criticism, keep calm, stay focused on delivery
But Labour insiders wonder if a steady-as-she-goes approach can weather the headwinds coming in a pivotal 2025
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1875467379104514394
Again this is made out to be some superb analysis but this is what SKS has been doing since 2021. He has one strategy and he never diverges from it.
Not getting involved with Elon Musk IMHO is sensible. He can’t win that war and can only win by showing delivery. If he does that, the voters will reward him.
If not, it is Wes Streeting and New Labour is back.
Do I think SKS has a strategy. Yes I do.
Will it be successful? Not sure.
But any potential replacement will increase the odds of Labour winning again/continuing to govern IMHO.
#emetic
Good Morning everyone!
Merely changing leaders doesn’t improve your chances. Changing to a better leader makes them better. See some recent history for the reverse happening.
You are also right that some did think this 1997 part two. Whilst I was surprised that SKS’s ratings dropped quite as quickly as they did, I was under no illusion that he was ever really very popular. But I don’t think he’s really hated either, I am more confident in that analysis every day just purely from PB.
The Leeanderthal Man - imo worth a listen to see the current style:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDSOooaibMo
(15 minutes. Pure populism, emotion not reason, and doubling down on many of the things he said before - such as his claim that Sadiq Khan has been controlled by Islamists. He's funny on renewable energy - 'They are burning wood pellets in Drax Power Station, and at the same time they are cutting down trees, they are telling us to plant more trees - it's madness'.
Claims 160k RefUK members, and 1000 'fully vetted' candidates in place for the local elections, which is more than half the seats up for election.)
Mr Farage ( I haven't listened yet):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1A-FHX2dAI
Littler has consistently won competitions since he burst onto the scene and has just got better and better.
He also seems to have the respect and friendship of his fellow professionals too.
“She’s going to make millions”, “deal with Vodafone”. I’m sure she did very well out of it but as far as I can tell most of the brands have either dropped her or in the case of Vodafone she’s essentially been relegated to invisible.
What they are dependent on, is further failure from the big two. Which seems quite likely to be delivered.
https://youtu.be/M1A-FHX2dAI?t=2650
And yes, there have been some bad mistakes on the way. One of the things 2025 will reveal is how much they are teething trouble and how much they are fundamental.
But a little of the noise we're hearing (and yesterday was an especially unedifying example) is howls of rage from people who didn't get the election result they wanted. Possibly for the first time since 1974- in other words, basically forever.
Something something get over it, as I believe the advice goes.
But “insert politician here is crap” and “Elon Musk is fabulous” and “Nigel for PM” makes this site less and less interesting. I can go to Twitter and get the same analysis.
I still like to post here as I do value hearing from those who oppose me but I have to concede, it’s way less good than it was.
This forum became very heated last night and I do wonder just where all of this is going
The problem as I see it is Starmer is increasingly unpopular, as is his government, but the conservative party is moribund, the Lib Dems anonymous, and in this vacuum steps Farage, Reform, Musk and Trump
Starmer is yet again to make another resetting speech on Monday, but I expect anything he says will be drowned out by the media who seem obsessed by Musk and Trump who aren't even in office yet
It has been said they intend intervening in the trial of the Southport attacker, as they cannot be prevented in commentating on it
This does raise profound implications and as much as I am opposed to Starmer and Labour, it makes one very uneasy as to where this is all going
Some on here critise Kemi Badenoch, but the real danger to our politics is not from her but Farage and the far right
It seems at his Leicester conference last night that when he rejected Robinson joining, he was heckled by some present
Labour supporters are experiencing a similar period to the anti Johnson post partygate time, and frankly I do not see it getting any easier for them whilst Starmer and Reeves are in charge
It's harsh because I challenge them to name a better British female grand slam tournament winner from the past forty years. Or indeed any tennis player, male or female and from any country, to come through qualifying to get to the final of such a tournament in the open era, let alone win it (& without dropping a set or even going to a tie break in any set). We all know she hasn't backed up that win since, but it's still an incredible and unique achievement.
It's unnecessary because Littler's achievement in emerging as a major force in darts and winning at such a young age is fantastic in itself. It doesn't require a bogus and mean-spirited take-down of another young person in another sport to make that point.
Without him as figurehead, I'm not sure it works.
https://x.com/IrvineWelsh/status/1875479743250018354
https://www.inkl.com/news/nicola-sturgeon-won-t-get-charged-as-police-probe-snp-finances-kc-predicts
(original paywalled at https://www.thenational.scot/news/24816132.operation-branchform-nicola-sturgeon-wont-get-charged-kc-predicts/ )
NICOLA Sturgeon is not likely to face any charges under the Police Scotland probe into SNP finances, a top Scottish KC has said.
Thomas Leonard Ross, a criminal defence lawyer and former president of the Scottish Bar Association, also said he did not expect to see any charges brought against Colin Beattie, the former treasurer of the SNP.
Both Beattie and Sturgeon were arrested, questioned, and released without charge in 2023 as part of the ongoing Operation Branchform, which has seen police investigate what happened to some £600,000 raised by the SNP to fight a second independence campaign.
The chat has a fair bit of "Tommy" in it, although these tend to be buried in bots if there is no moderation team appointed.
https://youtu.be/M1A-FHX2dAI?t=2650
https://archive.is/20250104070339/https://www.thenational.scot/news/24816132.operation-branchform-nicola-sturgeon-wont-get-charged-kc-predicts/
Same goes for individual posters.
I'd be very sad to see Foxy leave.
Whilst it's true that comments like Musk's are awful and create a risk for others like Phillips, you clearly don't reduce that risk by getting into a flame war with the troll. However much it sticks in the throat, you try to take some of the heat out of the situation.
Part of the problem is the sloganising.
"Starmer is useless" with no supporting argument
"Musk is a xxxx" with no added insights or predictions or context.
It's just venting and is of zero value. You can get it on X all the time if that's what you want.
The bigger problem, and it's putting me off the site, is the personal invective.
"You are a moron" repeatedly with no humour, simply to shout a contributor down.
I'm going to start flagging posts of this nature, and if you care about the site, I suggest you do the same.
Who are Reform members?
Research by the Party Members Project shows they're...
Older, very unlikely to be in London, and likely to identify as "fairly" or "very" right-wing
Strongly opposed to net zero by 2050 and Thatcherite on tax and spend
Very online — more than members of all other parties
https://bsky.app/profile/politicshome.bsky.social/post/3levtfqwpjs2z
She hasn't progressed because she has been injured persistenty, not an unusual occurence in young sportspeople. If she had stayed fit she would be comfortably top 10.
I hope it calms down,,but I am concerned for the wider implications to our democracy
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=389640
Many Cabinet members felt "frozen" during the meeting held just before the martial law declaration, unable to oppose President Yoon Suk Yeol for fear that the military might encircle and control them.
According to multiple government sources on Thursday, some Cabinet members expressed fears after the emergency Cabinet meeting, which was held at 10:17 p.m., Dec. 3.
One member was quoted as saying, "What if the military seizes my home?" Another said, "I was frozen at the very mention of martial law."
Yoon concluded the Cabinet meeting as a formality and immediately declared martial law...
Elon Musk calling Jess Phillips a rape gang supporter is surely beyond the pale.
Would he have been able to have that amplified or made that note if he didn’t own Twitter? It’s very worrying that people can just buy the ability to shout the loudest now.
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=389695
The top two officials of the Presidential Security Service (PSS) snubbed a police request to appear for questioning Saturday, a day after foiling the state anti-corruption agency's attempt to arrest impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol.
In a message to media, the PSS said neither its Chief Park Chong-jun nor Deputy Kim Seong-hoon could leave their positions "even for a moment," citing the gravity of the situation in providing security for Yoon.
The PSS added they were in talks with police to reschedule the questioning session.
On Friday, the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) sought to execute its warrant to arrest Yoon over his failed martial law bid from December. However, the CIO halted its attempt after a standoff with PSS officials and soldiers for some six hours, saying some 200 people had formed a human wall that blocked entry to the presidential residence...
Keep going until President Musk is tweeting that Starmer can FUCK YOURSELF IN THE FACE
Of course our very own Max last evening excused Musk's intervention as "holding Starmer to account"
Oh and FREE THE YAXLEY-LENNON ONE!
I don't see Reform as Thatcherite on tax and spend - I'd see that as a false self-image.
I've been excoriating about RefUK, as I have about the current Conservative leadership, and I hope I explain why.
One view which I do wonder about, based on local experience, is that they seem to try and wind followers up about things that are not happening where those followers live. It seems to me to be much about fear of the other, where there is relatively little experience of that "other". I don't have any nationwide analysis on that, but that's the impression I get.
I agree that saying nothing is an option, but the UK Government as a whole pretending the owner of a major social media platform (indeed the one Welsh was posting on) does not exist is not a serious option.
Yet they need to win seats in North, Midlands and Wales off Labour - places where they will need a 'levelling up, nationalise utilities, deal with cost of living message' to have a chance.
Reform's contradictions may unravel in the four years.
Otto English @ottoenglish.bsky.social
Suella Braverman has just told #lbc listeners that not only has Italy built a wall on "its border with Turkey" but that she has been there "and seen it."
https://bsky.app/profile/ottoenglish.bsky.social/post/3leqvwjpkvk2w
The danger is these people are convinced they represent the general population, even in a constituency where Reform + Conservative = 10.3% of the vote. A bubble implies it can be popped; these folks are trapped in a nuclear bunker convinced that democracy has been subverted by the woke blob. Their tone is increasingly conspiratorial and violent.
I agree that the rise of the far right has wider implications to our democracy and is more important than the survival of PB. But there is very little we can do, as a group, about the rise of the far right, apart from not encouraging it.
Collectively we can do something about the survival of PB by not tolerating persistent personal invective as a means of shutting down debate.
Humourous personal invective is a different matter and enlivens the site in my opinion, though I do not engage in it myself.
He really pisses me off at times - in fact, almost daily, particularly with his trolling - but there's no doubt he adds valuable perspective to this site and has some unique and interesting views at times too.