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PB Predictions Competition 2025 – politicalbetting.com

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,044
    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Oh what a fucking surprise Laura K has Nigel '5 MPs' Farage on yet again.

    No doubt the BBC will also have him lined up for QT for about a dozen appearances in the next six months.


    Well, he is the most probable next Prime Minister, after Starmer, according to the bookies

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister-after-keir-starmer

    So, yeah, suck it up. He will get attention
    Beeb journos and editors will be the first to burst into tears when Farage populist nationalist government ends the licence fee on day one and make the BBC into a less well funded version of PBS.

    Meh. The BBC is doomed anyway. We might as well face it, even tho it saddens me as a Brit
    Probably true but symptomatic of the decline of the country. We have allowed our great institutions to shrivel or be sold off in the name of competition and the 'free market'.
    A lot of people dont think the bbc is a great institution however, its the channel you never bother with. Sort of like the shipping forecast, only of interest to a tiny few
    I only watch Attenborough.

    I think the rest is shite.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,044
    biggles said:

    Quote from the Times piece: Starmer discovered, “within days of entering No 10”, that “there was no plan”.

    https://x.com/robinson_ip/status/1875666011250413814

    Finally, a government willing to have a go at “masterly inactivity”. I applaud them.
    Those without a plan become subject to those of others, such as those who want pay hikes, and for Britain to pay reparations.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,025
    Sandpit said:

    Quote from the Times piece: Starmer discovered, “within days of entering No 10”, that “there was no plan”.

    https://x.com/robinson_ip/status/1875666011250413814

    Err, shouldn’t Starmer have been the one in charge of the plan?

    Good luck to everyone in the UK and US with the winter weather today, reports and pictures don’t look too good. Stay safe.
    I thought there were or would have been open lines of communication between Labour officials and the civil service as the election approached. The Civil Service should certainly have examined the Labour Manifesto with a view to ascertaining the legislative priorities of any incoming Government.

    We know during the campaign the figure of “£2,000 per household” in tax rises was cited by Sunak and Hunt based on an analysis undertaken of Labour’s spending commitments.

    I don’t know if Labour wondered whether, after years of dealing with Conservative Ministers, elements of the senior parts of the Service had become politicised - it was raised after 1997 as I recall.

    It may also be the Labour Manifesto deliberately lacked clarity and overt commitment - fine to wrongfoot your opponent in a campaign, not much use as an instrument for determining legislative priority.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,044

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour polling 30%. Apparently the most unpopular government ever.

    All I can say, is sorry Elon.

    Labour at Ed Miliband 2015 levels less than a year after winning a general election is not much to shout about
    The Tories are 7 points BEHIND! So what does that make them? The worst opposition in history?
    Only because Reform are on 22%, combined the Tories and Reform are on 45%
    So the RefCon Party is fifteen points ahead of Labour and not far behind their GE winning total? Who becomes leader? Farage or Badenoch or are we looking at an SDP/ Liberal arrangement?
    Who knows.

    I bet the candidate selection for Reform is shite though.

    It could be a government of ERG on acid, which would just piss from five dicks and get nothing done.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,319
    edited January 5

    Quote from the Times piece: Starmer discovered, “within days of entering No 10”, that “there was no plan”.

    https://x.com/robinson_ip/status/1875666011250413814

    Haven't read the article and don't know who they talked to do, but this is clearly not the case as the new government are doing a lot of stuff in their early days. You might think the plan is not working or itt isn't joined up. But there's a plan.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,983
    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Oh what a fucking surprise Laura K has Nigel '5 MPs' Farage on yet again.

    No doubt the BBC will also have him lined up for QT for about a dozen appearances in the next six months.


    Well, he is the most probable next Prime Minister, after Starmer, according to the bookies

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister-after-keir-starmer

    So, yeah, suck it up. He will get attention
    Beeb journos and editors will be the first to burst into tears when Farage populist nationalist government ends the licence fee on day one and make the BBC into a less well funded version of PBS.

    Meh. The BBC is doomed anyway. We might as well face it, even tho it saddens me as a Brit
    Probably true but symptomatic of the decline of the country. We have allowed our great institutions to shrivel or be sold off in the name of competition and the 'free market'.
    A lot of people dont think the bbc is a great institution however, its the channel you never bother with. Sort of like the shipping forecast, only of interest to a tiny few
    I agree most of what it does is irrelevant, a bit tired, and second rate. I especially dislike how R3 has been trashed in recent times.

    Lots needs to improve; TV may be beyond recovery, I imagine most never use it except for occasional gems and big occasions.

    The heart of what is essential though is news/politics etc. In the world as it is now to have an outfit that makes some attempt - and it should be a much better attempt - to be truthful, accurate, and without an editorial bias (needs improving though) is important. We are not going to get another one. The BBC is the only option.

    This is a recent example of its good journalists doing well (IMHO)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0026963
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,571
    That Mail headline?

    Nearly a third of all Britons polled... expect the Labour leader to last another year at most.

    (Source: https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/)

    Which tells us several things.

    One is that merry-go-round since 2016 has reset public expectations in a crazy way- we have come to expect a new PM every few months. (Partly because of articles like this.)

    Another is how impatient the public is for gain without pain- sorry folks, it ain't happening.

    But most importantly, once again, Baldwin was right. The Mail is written by cads.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,015
    carnforth said:

    Quote in a Tim Shipman piece in the Sunday Times:

    "The cabinet is also inexperienced. "The only minister who really knows how to work the system and get officials delivering what he wants is Ed Miliband, who has been there before," a colleague said of the climate-crusading energy secretary. "And Ed is the one minister we don't want to be a success if we want to win the next election."

    Since Yvette Cooper and Hilary Benn were also in cabinet under Brown, that statement takes an immediate credibility hit.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,750
    Sandpit said:

    Quote from the Times piece: Starmer discovered, “within days of entering No 10”, that “there was no plan”.

    https://x.com/robinson_ip/status/1875666011250413814

    Err, shouldn’t Starmer have been the one in charge of the plan?

    Good luck to everyone in the UK and US with the winter weather today, reports and pictures don’t look too good. Stay safe.
    Yeah, I'm a bit bemused about that. Surely they would have had a plan in place for what was a near-certain victory?

    As for the weather: I'm about to go and volunteer at our local junior parktun. I think I'll wear my dryrobe as well as cat, hat and gloves. Not too much snow here, and it's disappearing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,015
    biggles said:

    Quote from the Times piece: Starmer discovered, “within days of entering No 10”, that “there was no plan”.

    https://x.com/robinson_ip/status/1875666011250413814

    Finally, a government willing to have a go at “masterly inactivity”. I applaud them.
    We should be so lucky.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,869
    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    Quote in a Tim Shipman piece in the Sunday Times:

    "The cabinet is also inexperienced. "The only minister who really knows how to work the system and get officials delivering what he wants is Ed Miliband, who has been there before," a colleague said of the climate-crusading energy secretary. "And Ed is the one minister we don't want to be a success if we want to win the next election."

    Since Yvette Cooper and Hilary Benn were also in cabinet under Brown, that statement takes an immediate credibility hit.
    Perhaps useless would be better...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,226
    edited January 5
    While Rawnsley has his usual winter break, today’s Sunday Hardman, coming to you via an extremely wet but not-snowy-at-all Greenwich:

    By setting up a long-term commission on creating a national care service that won’t report until 2028, the prime minister risks looking more like one of those builders who turns up when they feel like it and leaves the site under a tarpaulin for months at a time. The final report deadline of 2028 seems almost deliberately designed to prevent any meaningful reform and allow the blame to fall on the other parties that didn’t help.

    If Labour doesn’t want to be urgent about social care reform, then it will struggle to realise whatever National Health Service improvements the party wants. Real reforms take a long time to implement and even longer to produce results, which means there is also a political reason for getting on with it now. By the time of the next election, Labour needs to have signs of solid progress to show to the highly volatile electorate as proof that it is worth sticking with the party for a second term …

    Starmer has a lot of faith in himself as a politician who is better than the Conservative leaders who came before him and who knows how to run a public service. It would therefore be a particularly uncomfortable experience for Labour backbenchers if, over the next few months, the Conservatives can set up a narrative that Labour isn’t getting on with the things its MPs went into politics to achieve.

    Letting down the NHS, leaving vulnerable people without the social care they need and deserve, cutting the winter fuel payment, reneging on promises to Waspi women..and putting up taxes on charities and hospices: these are not the things that Labour MPs were elected to do. If by the end of 2025 he’s still keeping his plans under a tarpaulin and blaming the last lot, he’ll have a much harder time convincing voters that they picked the right builder when he asks them to stick with him at the next election. Before then, his own MPs will be getting seriously angsty if they start to believe the Conservative attack that they aren’t rebuilding the country for the people who need them the most.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,015
    edited January 5
    IanB2 said:

    putting up taxes on charities and hospices: these are not the things that Labour MPs were elected to do.

    I thought that was a manifesto commitment? VAT and business rates on private schools regardless of status?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,131
    Four centuries on, the British press can now have its own "Tulip Mania"...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,015

    Four centuries on, the British press can now have its own "Tulip Mania"...
    A leaf out of an old book?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,157
    edited January 5
    COMPETITION, @Benpointer

    Highest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform.
    Lab 36 Con 30 LD 15 Reform 28
    Lowest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform.
    Lab 24 Con 21 LD 9 Reform 14
    Number of Reform MPs on 31/12/2025.
    7
    Number of Tory MP defectors to Reform in 2025.
    2
    Number of Westminster by-elections held in 2025.
    2
    Number of ministers to leave the Westminster cabinet during 2025.
    4
    Number of seats won by the AfD in the 2025 German Federal Election.
    125
    UK CPI figure for November 2025 (Nov 2024 = 2.6%).
    2.2%
    UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2025 (Year to Nov 2024 = £113.2bn).
    £105bn
    UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2025 (Oct 23 to Oct 24 = 1.3%).
    1.8%
    US growth annualised rate in Q3 2025 (Q3 2024 = 3.1%).
    2.0%
    EU growth Q3 2024 to Q3 2025 (2024 = 1.0%).
    1.2%
    USD/Ruble exchange rate at London FOREX close on 31/12/2025 (31/12/2024 = 114 USD/RUB).
    142
    The result of the 2025-2026 Ashes series (2023 series: Drawn 2–2)
    3-1 Australia win
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,886
    Mass Muslim assault on white girls. Milan, New Year’s Eve

    https://x.com/roisinmichaux/status/1875528478105182471?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,794

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Oh what a fucking surprise Laura K has Nigel '5 MPs' Farage on yet again.

    No doubt the BBC will also have him lined up for QT for about a dozen appearances in the next six months.


    Well, he is the most probable next Prime Minister, after Starmer, according to the bookies

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister-after-keir-starmer

    So, yeah, suck it up. He will get attention
    Beeb journos and editors will be the first to burst into tears when Farage populist nationalist government ends the licence fee on day one and make the BBC into a less well funded version of PBS.

    Meh. The BBC is doomed anyway. We might as well face it, even tho it saddens me as a Brit
    Could mean the end of Strictly and the modern Dr Who though.

    That would be a travesty.
    If we had joined up thinking... keep the rights for world wide broadcast on new programs. The license fee becomes an online account available to anyone on the planet.

    There are enough people in the USA who would sign up for BBC branded content, alone, to pay for the whole thing. Especially with no adverts.

    So you could make subscriptions free to UK citizens.

    "The BBC - free for you. Paid for by furriners." - one hell of a pitch.

    And since no revenue from the UK, total independence from government. No license fee negotiations.
    To have kept the rights for worldwide broadcast would have required more money that wasn’t available. Governments didn’t provide the BBC with the sort of funding necessary to make such long-term investment.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,157
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    putting up taxes on charities and hospices: these are not the things that Labour MPs were elected to do.

    I thought that was a manifesto commitment? VAT and business rates on private schools regardless of status?
    What taxes have been put up on hospices? I missed that.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,775

    moonshine said:

    kinabalu said:

    “We’re entering this sort of parallel reality based on Musk’s ignorance of the thing he wants to talk about.”

    Reflecting on over a decade writing about grooming gangs,
    @HugoRifkind
    explains why he’s not sure an inquiry into grooming gangs will provide any answers.

    @TheTimes

    https://x.com/TimesRadio/status/1875503682420396530

    Finally, some sensible analysis.

    Answers are not what Musk and his fanbase want. They want 2 things. To damage Keir Starmer. To whip up hatred of Muslims. Both of these things being in the interests of their far right politics.
    Heard it all now. Wanting to damage the most left wing PM of my lifetime means you are far right.
    Unless you're very young, I'd question whether Starmer was to the left of Gordon Brown.

    Does Musk issue dozens of tweets every day, and just occasionally takes a potshot at Starmer that we notice? Or is he for some reason really interested in the UK?
    Would you question why Biden was interested in Ireland? It seems natural for people of British descent to question what is becoming of the mother country.
    This is not Musk's 'mother country'. He has shown very little interest in the UK in the past, and has not invested heavily in this country.

    You cannot say the same about Trump, for instance.
    He has British children that live here.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,775
    Leon said:

    Mass Muslim assault on white girls. Milan, New Year’s Eve

    https://x.com/roisinmichaux/status/1875528478105182471?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Is Jess P gonna use her usual: “Shuddup about it! No different to a night out in Birmingham from my youth innit”.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,983
    IanB2 said:

    While Rawnsley has his usual winter break, today’s Sunday Hardman, coming to you via an extremely wet but not-snowy-at-all Greenwich:

    By setting up a long-term commission on creating a national care service that won’t report until 2028, the prime minister risks looking more like one of those builders who turns up when they feel like it and leaves the site under a tarpaulin for months at a time. The final report deadline of 2028 seems almost deliberately designed to prevent any meaningful reform and allow the blame to fall on the other parties that didn’t help.

    If Labour doesn’t want to be urgent about social care reform, then it will struggle to realise whatever National Health Service improvements the party wants. Real reforms take a long time to implement and even longer to produce results, which means there is also a political reason for getting on with it now. By the time of the next election, Labour needs to have signs of solid progress to show to the highly volatile electorate as proof that it is worth sticking with the party for a second term …

    Starmer has a lot of faith in himself as a politician who is better than the Conservative leaders who came before him and who knows how to run a public service. It would therefore be a particularly uncomfortable experience for Labour backbenchers if, over the next few months, the Conservatives can set up a narrative that Labour isn’t getting on with the things its MPs went into politics to achieve.

    Letting down the NHS, leaving vulnerable people without the social care they need and deserve, cutting the winter fuel payment, reneging on promises to Waspi women..and putting up taxes on charities and hospices: these are not the things that Labour MPs were elected to do. If by the end of 2025 he’s still keeping his plans under a tarpaulin and blaming the last lot, he’ll have a much harder time convincing voters that they picked the right builder when he asks them to stick with him at the next election. Before then, his own MPs will be getting seriously angsty if they start to believe the Conservative attack that they aren’t rebuilding the country for the people who need them the most.

    It is not easy to fault this analysis. Social care and NHS are closely linked. Labour were elected to get done the stuff several years of incompetent government failed on. They were elected on a combination of finite vision and boring competence. This 2028 (ie about 2025) social care thing looks catastrophic.

    If they govern like this they will be a one term outfit. If they governed bravely and truthfully they would have a reasonable chance of another term as sane centrists rally round Labour to fend off a bunch of nutters. As things stand this won't happen.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,015
    edited January 5
    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    putting up taxes on charities and hospices: these are not the things that Labour MPs were elected to do.

    I thought that was a manifesto commitment? VAT and business rates on private schools regardless of status?
    What taxes have been put up on hospices? I missed that.
    I emphasised the word 'charities.'

    Edit - although the NI hike presumably affects them too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,886
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Mass Muslim assault on white girls. Milan, New Year’s Eve

    https://x.com/roisinmichaux/status/1875528478105182471?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Is Jess P gonna use her usual: “Shuddup about it! No different to a night out in Birmingham from my youth innit”.
    This is all going to end…. Badly
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,157
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Mass Muslim assault on white girls. Milan, New Year’s Eve

    https://x.com/roisinmichaux/status/1875528478105182471?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Is Jess P gonna use her usual: “Shuddup about it! No different to a night out in Birmingham from my youth innit”.
    A group of young, allegedly Pakistani, men = "Muslims".

    Hmmm.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,226
    edited January 5
    algarkirk said:

    IanB2 said:

    While Rawnsley has his usual winter break, today’s Sunday Hardman, coming to you via an extremely wet but not-snowy-at-all Greenwich:

    By setting up a long-term commission on creating a national care service that won’t report until 2028, the prime minister risks looking more like one of those builders who turns up when they feel like it and leaves the site under a tarpaulin for months at a time. The final report deadline of 2028 seems almost deliberately designed to prevent any meaningful reform and allow the blame to fall on the other parties that didn’t help.

    If Labour doesn’t want to be urgent about social care reform, then it will struggle to realise whatever National Health Service improvements the party wants. Real reforms take a long time to implement and even longer to produce results, which means there is also a political reason for getting on with it now. By the time of the next election, Labour needs to have signs of solid progress to show to the highly volatile electorate as proof that it is worth sticking with the party for a second term …

    Starmer has a lot of faith in himself as a politician who is better than the Conservative leaders who came before him and who knows how to run a public service. It would therefore be a particularly uncomfortable experience for Labour backbenchers if, over the next few months, the Conservatives can set up a narrative that Labour isn’t getting on with the things its MPs went into politics to achieve.

    Letting down the NHS, leaving vulnerable people without the social care they need and deserve, cutting the winter fuel payment, reneging on promises to Waspi women..and putting up taxes on charities and hospices: these are not the things that Labour MPs were elected to do. If by the end of 2025 he’s still keeping his plans under a tarpaulin and blaming the last lot, he’ll have a much harder time convincing voters that they picked the right builder when he asks them to stick with him at the next election. Before then, his own MPs will be getting seriously angsty if they start to believe the Conservative attack that they aren’t rebuilding the country for the people who need them the most.

    It is not easy to fault this analysis. Social care and NHS are closely linked. Labour were elected to get done the stuff several years of incompetent government failed on. They were elected on a combination of finite vision and boring competence. This 2028 (ie about 2025) social care thing looks catastrophic.

    If they govern like this they will be a one term outfit. If they governed bravely and truthfully they would have a reasonable chance of another term as sane centrists rally round Labour to fend off a bunch of nutters. As things stand this won't happen.
    We know Streeting is good at politics - which his entire career comprises - but there is no evidence he is any good at administration. I suspect Hardman is right that the whole thing is heading for a political tussle, from which Streeting already thinks he can wriggle out before the next election, that will deliver precisely zero change or benefit to our system of social care.

    Given how widely their win was predicted, it is shocking how little preparation Labour has done for the so many tasks that are needing to be done. No wonder Sue Gray got the push (if up into the Lords, where she can do no further harm).
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,775
    edited January 5

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Oh what a fucking surprise Laura K has Nigel '5 MPs' Farage on yet again.

    No doubt the BBC will also have him lined up for QT for about a dozen appearances in the next six months.


    Well, he is the most probable next Prime Minister, after Starmer, according to the bookies

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister-after-keir-starmer

    So, yeah, suck it up. He will get attention
    Beeb journos and editors will be the first to burst into tears when Farage populist nationalist government ends the licence fee on day one and make the BBC into a less well funded version of PBS.

    Meh. The BBC is doomed anyway. We might as well face it, even tho it saddens me as a Brit
    Could mean the end of Strictly and the modern Dr Who though.

    That would be a travesty.
    If we had joined up thinking... keep the rights for world wide broadcast on new programs. The license fee becomes an online account available to anyone on the planet.

    There are enough people in the USA who would sign up for BBC branded content, alone, to pay for the whole thing. Especially with no adverts.

    So you could make subscriptions free to UK citizens.

    "The BBC - free for you. Paid for by furriners." - one hell of a pitch.

    And since no revenue from the UK, total independence from government. No license fee negotiations.
    To have kept the rights for worldwide broadcast would have required more money that wasn’t available. Governments didn’t provide the BBC with the sort of funding necessary to make such long-term investment.
    In the 2010 parliament, the bbc should have spun off everything apart from the “public service” elements, got in private sector management to ruthlessly cut costs and floated 49% of its stock. The proceeds could have been poured back into content creation for a global streaming audience, buying back crown jewel content sold for a song, and worked to digitise and make available its entire library of content going back 100 years. Everything was there, the brand, the iplayer platform, world class talent, an enviable existing catalogue. By now the other 51% could have been sold too, with the ~£100bn proceeds used to do something useful.

    So much missed opportunity in the coalition years. I recall voting for what was promised to be an austerity government, 14 years I waited. And we still have a state owned dancing contest on the telly every Saturday I ask you.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,886
    MattW said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Mass Muslim assault on white girls. Milan, New Year’s Eve

    https://x.com/roisinmichaux/status/1875528478105182471?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Is Jess P gonna use her usual: “Shuddup about it! No different to a night out in Birmingham from my youth innit”.
    A group of young, allegedly Pakistani, men = "Muslims".

    Hmmm.
    Have a guess where they’re from

    “Fuck Italy, shit police”

    https://x.com/fratotolo2/status/1874377195009007752?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    “Vaffanxxlo Italia, polizia di merxa”

    I festeggiamenti degli immigrati e dei “nuovi italiani” in piazza Duomo a Milano.
    #Capodanno #BuonAnno2025


    There are multiple videos. All waving flags of Morocco, Palestine, Turkey etc
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,226
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Mass Muslim assault on white girls. Milan, New Year’s Eve

    https://x.com/roisinmichaux/status/1875528478105182471?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Is Jess P gonna use her usual: “Shuddup about it! No different to a night out in Birmingham from my youth innit”.
    This is all going to end…. Badly
    You could just make that your username, saving you having to keep typing it out so incessantly.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,841
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Oh what a fucking surprise Laura K has Nigel '5 MPs' Farage on yet again.

    No doubt the BBC will also have him lined up for QT for about a dozen appearances in the next six months.


    Well, he is the most probable next Prime Minister, after Starmer, according to the bookies

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister-after-keir-starmer

    So, yeah, suck it up. He will get attention
    Beeb journos and editors will be the first to burst into tears when Farage populist nationalist government ends the licence fee on day one and make the BBC into a less well funded version of PBS.

    Meh. The BBC is doomed anyway. We might as well face it, even tho it saddens me as a Brit
    Probably true but symptomatic of the decline of the country. We have allowed our great institutions to shrivel or be sold off in the name of competition and the 'free market'.
    Don't give a toss anymore. Britain as we knew it is gone. Just go into your town centre

    We need a revolution, if the BBC dies - well, that was gonna happen anyway. They even killed off Mastechef and Gregg Wallace

    Twats
    Unpatriotic traitor!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,886
    algarkirk said:

    IanB2 said:

    While Rawnsley has his usual winter break, today’s Sunday Hardman, coming to you via an extremely wet but not-snowy-at-all Greenwich:

    By setting up a long-term commission on creating a national care service that won’t report until 2028, the prime minister risks looking more like one of those builders who turns up when they feel like it and leaves the site under a tarpaulin for months at a time. The final report deadline of 2028 seems almost deliberately designed to prevent any meaningful reform and allow the blame to fall on the other parties that didn’t help.

    If Labour doesn’t want to be urgent about social care reform, then it will struggle to realise whatever National Health Service improvements the party wants. Real reforms take a long time to implement and even longer to produce results, which means there is also a political reason for getting on with it now. By the time of the next election, Labour needs to have signs of solid progress to show to the highly volatile electorate as proof that it is worth sticking with the party for a second term …

    Starmer has a lot of faith in himself as a politician who is better than the Conservative leaders who came before him and who knows how to run a public service. It would therefore be a particularly uncomfortable experience for Labour backbenchers if, over the next few months, the Conservatives can set up a narrative that Labour isn’t getting on with the things its MPs went into politics to achieve.

    Letting down the NHS, leaving vulnerable people without the social care they need and deserve, cutting the winter fuel payment, reneging on promises to Waspi women..and putting up taxes on charities and hospices: these are not the things that Labour MPs were elected to do. If by the end of 2025 he’s still keeping his plans under a tarpaulin and blaming the last lot, he’ll have a much harder time convincing voters that they picked the right builder when he asks them to stick with him at the next election. Before then, his own MPs will be getting seriously angsty if they start to believe the Conservative attack that they aren’t rebuilding the country for the people who need them the most.

    It is not easy to fault this analysis. Social care and NHS are closely linked. Labour were elected to get done the stuff several years of incompetent government failed on. They were elected on a combination of finite vision and boring competence. This 2028 (ie about 2025) social care thing looks catastrophic.

    If they govern like this they will be a one term outfit. If they governed bravely and truthfully they would have a reasonable chance of another term as sane centrists rally round Labour to fend off a bunch of nutters. As things stand this won't happen.
    How can Starmer be surprised when he arrives in Number 10 - that there isn’t “a plan”???

    He was the prime minister in waiting for many months. Labour were in opposition for 14 years. What the fucking fuck did they do during all that time?

    It does explain their monumental incompetence ever since, however

    So now we all have to sit around for 4 dismal years until they inevitably lose to Farage
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,131

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    Quote in a Tim Shipman piece in the Sunday Times:

    "The cabinet is also inexperienced. "The only minister who really knows how to work the system and get officials delivering what he wants is Ed Miliband, who has been there before," a colleague said of the climate-crusading energy secretary. "And Ed is the one minister we don't want to be a success if we want to win the next election."

    Since Yvette Cooper and Hilary Benn were also in cabinet under Brown, that statement takes an immediate credibility hit.
    Perhaps useless would be better...
    The Gordon Brown cabinets where a collection of political titans such as Jacqui Smith, Geoff Hoon, Hazel Blears, James Purnell, Liam Byrne.

    And who could forget Bob Ainsworth, Minister of Defence?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,329

    biggles said:

    Quote from the Times piece: Starmer discovered, “within days of entering No 10”, that “there was no plan”.

    https://x.com/robinson_ip/status/1875666011250413814

    Finally, a government willing to have a go at “masterly inactivity”. I applaud them.
    Those without a plan become subject to those of others, such as those who want pay hikes, and for Britain to pay reparations.
    How big does a pay rise have to be in order to be classed as a 'hike'?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,140

    NEW THREAD

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,775
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Mass Muslim assault on white girls. Milan, New Year’s Eve

    https://x.com/roisinmichaux/status/1875528478105182471?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Is Jess P gonna use her usual: “Shuddup about it! No different to a night out in Birmingham from my youth innit”.
    A group of young, allegedly Pakistani, men = "Muslims".

    Hmmm.
    Have a guess where they’re from

    “Fuck Italy, shit police”

    https://x.com/fratotolo2/status/1874377195009007752?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    “Vaffanxxlo Italia, polizia di merxa”

    I festeggiamenti degli immigrati e dei “nuovi italiani” in piazza Duomo a Milano.
    #Capodanno #BuonAnno2025


    There are multiple videos. All waving flags of Morocco, Palestine, Turkey etc
    Don’t really understand the bit where the police say they are helpless. Just sheer force of numbers against them?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,841
    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Oh what a fucking surprise Laura K has Nigel '5 MPs' Farage on yet again.

    No doubt the BBC will also have him lined up for QT for about a dozen appearances in the next six months.

    Well, he is the most probable next Prime Minister, after Starmer, according to the bookies

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister-after-keir-starmer

    So, yeah, suck it up. He will get attention
    Beeb journos and editors will be the first to burst into tears when Farage populist nationalist government ends the licence fee on day one and make the BBC into a less well funded version of PBS.

    Meh. The BBC is doomed anyway. We might as well face it, even tho it saddens me as a Brit
    Probably true but symptomatic of the decline of the country. We have allowed our great institutions to shrivel or be sold off in the name of competition and the 'free market'.
    A lot of people dont think the bbc is a great institution however, its the channel you never bother with. Sort of like the shipping forecast, only of interest to a tiny few
    That's patently bollocks.

    "BBC One dominated the festive ratings charts in a bumper day for Christmas Day viewing, with programmes shown on the channel occupying all spots in the top 10 for the first time."

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2024/dec/26/gavin-and-stacey-finale-tops-christmas-television-ratings
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,841
    Sandpit said:

    Quote from the Times piece: Starmer discovered, “within days of entering No 10”, that “there was no plan”.

    https://x.com/robinson_ip/status/1875666011250413814

    Err, shouldn’t Starmer have been the one in charge of the plan?

    Good luck to everyone in the UK and US with the winter weather today, reports and pictures don’t look too good. Stay safe.
    Err, aren't you in danger of confusing an article in the Times with facts?
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,377
    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    IanB2 said:

    While Rawnsley has his usual winter break, today’s Sunday Hardman, coming to you via an extremely wet but not-snowy-at-all Greenwich:

    By setting up a long-term commission on creating a national care service that won’t report until 2028, the prime minister risks looking more like one of those builders who turns up when they feel like it and leaves the site under a tarpaulin for months at a time. The final report deadline of 2028 seems almost deliberately designed to prevent any meaningful reform and allow the blame to fall on the other parties that didn’t help.

    If Labour doesn’t want to be urgent about social care reform, then it will struggle to realise whatever National Health Service improvements the party wants. Real reforms take a long time to implement and even longer to produce results, which means there is also a political reason for getting on with it now. By the time of the next election, Labour needs to have signs of solid progress to show to the highly volatile electorate as proof that it is worth sticking with the party for a second term …

    Starmer has a lot of faith in himself as a politician who is better than the Conservative leaders who came before him and who knows how to run a public service. It would therefore be a particularly uncomfortable experience for Labour backbenchers if, over the next few months, the Conservatives can set up a narrative that Labour isn’t getting on with the things its MPs went into politics to achieve.

    Letting down the NHS, leaving vulnerable people without the social care they need and deserve, cutting the winter fuel payment, reneging on promises to Waspi women..and putting up taxes on charities and hospices: these are not the things that Labour MPs were elected to do. If by the end of 2025 he’s still keeping his plans under a tarpaulin and blaming the last lot, he’ll have a much harder time convincing voters that they picked the right builder when he asks them to stick with him at the next election. Before then, his own MPs will be getting seriously angsty if they start to believe the Conservative attack that they aren’t rebuilding the country for the people who need them the most.

    It is not easy to fault this analysis. Social care and NHS are closely linked. Labour were elected to get done the stuff several years of incompetent government failed on. They were elected on a combination of finite vision and boring competence. This 2028 (ie about 2025) social care thing looks catastrophic.

    If they govern like this they will be a one term outfit. If they governed bravely and truthfully they would have a reasonable chance of another term as sane centrists rally round Labour to fend off a bunch of nutters. As things stand this won't happen.
    How can Starmer be surprised when he arrives in Number 10 - that there isn’t “a plan”???

    He was the prime minister in waiting for many months. Labour were in opposition for 14 years. What the fucking fuck did they do during all that time?

    It does explain their monumental incompetence ever since, however

    So now we all have to sit around for 4 dismal years until they inevitably lose to Farage
    They sold themselves as a govt in waiting too. That’s what is so bizarre. Full of crap, they were, full of crap and they took us all for mugs. I feel a twit for buying it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,157
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    putting up taxes on charities and hospices: these are not the things that Labour MPs were elected to do.

    I thought that was a manifesto commitment? VAT and business rates on private schools regardless of status?
    What taxes have been put up on hospices? I missed that.
    I emphasised the word 'charities.'

    Edit - although the NI hike presumably affects them too.
    That's why I took the other one - I interpreted "charities" as a Spectator-ese circumlocution / mis-statement for Independent Schools having to pay VAT.

    If it's a reference to NI, then she's getting a bit desperate imo. She's complaining about a general tax policy, and trying to get emotional traction by using charities as a shield. Would a Conservative Government exempt particular special interest groups from general tax law?

    The "no resolution of Social Care until 2028" is a salient point, albeit one that comes with a forked tongue from a Conservative / whatever-they-are-now publication, whose politicians sat on their bottoms for 14 years. The point about the end of 2025 I agree with - politically a new Government has about 18 months to start significant initiatives.

    The rest of the categories is a small rolodex of Daily Express front pages, without much weight imo:

    - "Letting down the NHS" - too general to mean anything
    - "leaving vulnerable people without the social care they need and deserve" -attacking a Labour Government for not doing in 6 months something her own tradition failed to do in 14 years.
    - "cutting the winter fuel payment" - personally I don't think this justifies the weight put on it,
    - "reneging on promises to Waspi women" - it wasn't in the manifesto.
    - "putting up taxes on charities and hospices" - see above.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,157
    Listening to Farrage on the Kuenssberg programme is interesting,

    Farage is spluttering and squirming and dissembling ("the Left, the Left, the Left"), but imo she has not skewered him.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,750
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    kinabalu said:

    “We’re entering this sort of parallel reality based on Musk’s ignorance of the thing he wants to talk about.”

    Reflecting on over a decade writing about grooming gangs,
    @HugoRifkind
    explains why he’s not sure an inquiry into grooming gangs will provide any answers.

    @TheTimes

    https://x.com/TimesRadio/status/1875503682420396530

    Finally, some sensible analysis.

    Answers are not what Musk and his fanbase want. They want 2 things. To damage Keir Starmer. To whip up hatred of Muslims. Both of these things being in the interests of their far right politics.
    Heard it all now. Wanting to damage the most left wing PM of my lifetime means you are far right.
    Unless you're very young, I'd question whether Starmer was to the left of Gordon Brown.

    Does Musk issue dozens of tweets every day, and just occasionally takes a potshot at Starmer that we notice? Or is he for some reason really interested in the UK?
    Would you question why Biden was interested in Ireland? It seems natural for people of British descent to question what is becoming of the mother country.
    This is not Musk's 'mother country'. He has shown very little interest in the UK in the past, and has not invested heavily in this country.

    You cannot say the same about Trump, for instance.
    He has British children that live here.
    Does he?

    And even if that's the case, it's not the same thing, is it?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,044
    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    IanB2 said:

    While Rawnsley has his usual winter break, today’s Sunday Hardman, coming to you via an extremely wet but not-snowy-at-all Greenwich:

    By setting up a long-term commission on creating a national care service that won’t report until 2028, the prime minister risks looking more like one of those builders who turns up when they feel like it and leaves the site under a tarpaulin for months at a time. The final report deadline of 2028 seems almost deliberately designed to prevent any meaningful reform and allow the blame to fall on the other parties that didn’t help.

    If Labour doesn’t want to be urgent about social care reform, then it will struggle to realise whatever National Health Service improvements the party wants. Real reforms take a long time to implement and even longer to produce results, which means there is also a political reason for getting on with it now. By the time of the next election, Labour needs to have signs of solid progress to show to the highly volatile electorate as proof that it is worth sticking with the party for a second term …

    Starmer has a lot of faith in himself as a politician who is better than the Conservative leaders who came before him and who knows how to run a public service. It would therefore be a particularly uncomfortable experience for Labour backbenchers if, over the next few months, the Conservatives can set up a narrative that Labour isn’t getting on with the things its MPs went into politics to achieve.

    Letting down the NHS, leaving vulnerable people without the social care they need and deserve, cutting the winter fuel payment, reneging on promises to Waspi women..and putting up taxes on charities and hospices: these are not the things that Labour MPs were elected to do. If by the end of 2025 he’s still keeping his plans under a tarpaulin and blaming the last lot, he’ll have a much harder time convincing voters that they picked the right builder when he asks them to stick with him at the next election. Before then, his own MPs will be getting seriously angsty if they start to believe the Conservative attack that they aren’t rebuilding the country for the people who need them the most.

    It is not easy to fault this analysis. Social care and NHS are closely linked. Labour were elected to get done the stuff several years of incompetent government failed on. They were elected on a combination of finite vision and boring competence. This 2028 (ie about 2025) social care thing looks catastrophic.

    If they govern like this they will be a one term outfit. If they governed bravely and truthfully they would have a reasonable chance of another term as sane centrists rally round Labour to fend off a bunch of nutters. As things stand this won't happen.
    How can Starmer be surprised when he arrives in Number 10 - that there isn’t “a plan”???

    He was the prime minister in waiting for many months. Labour were in opposition for 14 years. What the fucking fuck did they do during all that time?

    It does explain their monumental incompetence ever since, however

    So now we all have to sit around for 4 dismal years until they inevitably lose to Farage
    We were told the whole time that Yvette Cooper HAD A PLAN.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,846

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Oh what a fucking surprise Laura K has Nigel '5 MPs' Farage on yet again.

    No doubt the BBC will also have him lined up for QT for about a dozen appearances in the next six months.

    Well, he is the most probable next Prime Minister, after Starmer, according to the bookies

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister-after-keir-starmer

    So, yeah, suck it up. He will get attention
    Beeb journos and editors will be the first to burst into tears when Farage populist nationalist government ends the licence fee on day one and make the BBC into a less well funded version of PBS.

    Meh. The BBC is doomed anyway. We might as well face it, even tho it saddens me as a Brit
    Probably true but symptomatic of the decline of the country. We have allowed our great institutions to shrivel or be sold off in the name of competition and the 'free market'.
    A lot of people dont think the bbc is a great institution however, its the channel you never bother with. Sort of like the shipping forecast, only of interest to a tiny few
    That's patently bollocks.

    "BBC One dominated the festive ratings charts in a bumper day for Christmas Day viewing, with programmes shown on the channel occupying all spots in the top 10 for the first time."

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2024/dec/26/gavin-and-stacey-finale-tops-christmas-television-ratings
    Call The Midwife ranked fourth in terms of viewership, with 4.42 million tuning in to the latest Christmas special. EastEnders came a close fifth place, with nearly 4.4 million viewers watching the soap’s festive special. The EastEnders Christmas special drew in 800,000 more viewers compared with 2023, based on each year’s overnight figures for 25 December.

    Doctor Who: Joy to the World drew in 4.11 million viewers, down slightly compared with last year’s special, which attracted 4.4 million overnight viewers. The Strictly Come Dancing festive show racked up just over 4 million views, while 3.23 million people tuned in to the latest Julia Donaldson adaptation, Tiddler, which was narrated by Hannah Waddingham.


    Those numbers are a small fraction of what the most popular shows would have got 50, 20 or even 10 years ago.
  • Hope its not too late @Benpointer competition

    Highest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform.
    Lab 32%
    Con 29%
    LD 16%
    Reform 26%

    Lowest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform.
    Lab 21%
    Con 19%
    LD 9%
    Reform 16%

    Number of Reform MPs on 31/12/2025.
    5

    Number of Tory MP defectors to Reform in 2025.
    0

    Number of Westminster by-elections held in 2025.
    2

    Number of ministers to leave the Westminster cabinet during 2025.
    2

    Number of seats won by the AfD in the 2025 German Federal Election.
    105

    UK CPI figure for November 2025 (Nov 2024 = 2.6%).
    UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2025 (Year to Nov 2024 = £113.2bn).
    £133.2bn

    UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2025 (Oct 23 to Oct 24 = 1.3%).
    1.5%

    US growth annualised rate in Q3 2025 (Q3 2024 = 3.1%).
    3.3%

    EU growth Q3 2024 to Q3 2025 (2024 = 1.0%).
    1.2%

    USD/Ruble exchange rate at London FOREX close on 31/12/2025 (31/12/2024 = 114 USD/RUB).
    162

    The result of the 2025-2026 Ashes series (2023 series: Drawn 2–2).
    Australia 3 - 1 England (Hope I'm wrong!!)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,841

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Oh what a fucking surprise Laura K has Nigel '5 MPs' Farage on yet again.

    No doubt the BBC will also have him lined up for QT for about a dozen appearances in the next six months.

    Well, he is the most probable next Prime Minister, after Starmer, according to the bookies

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister-after-keir-starmer

    So, yeah, suck it up. He will get attention
    Beeb journos and editors will be the first to burst into tears when Farage populist nationalist government ends the licence fee on day one and make the BBC into a less well funded version of PBS.

    Meh. The BBC is doomed anyway. We might as well face it, even tho it saddens me as a Brit
    Probably true but symptomatic of the decline of the country. We have allowed our great institutions to shrivel or be sold off in the name of competition and the 'free market'.
    A lot of people dont think the bbc is a great institution however, its the channel you never bother with. Sort of like the shipping forecast, only of interest to a tiny few
    That's patently bollocks.

    "BBC One dominated the festive ratings charts in a bumper day for Christmas Day viewing, with programmes shown on the channel occupying all spots in the top 10 for the first time."

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2024/dec/26/gavin-and-stacey-finale-tops-christmas-television-ratings
    Call The Midwife ranked fourth in terms of viewership, with 4.42 million tuning in to the latest Christmas special. EastEnders came a close fifth place, with nearly 4.4 million viewers watching the soap’s festive special. The EastEnders Christmas special drew in 800,000 more viewers compared with 2023, based on each year’s overnight figures for 25 December.

    Doctor Who: Joy to the World drew in 4.11 million viewers, down slightly compared with last year’s special, which attracted 4.4 million overnight viewers. The Strictly Come Dancing festive show racked up just over 4 million views, while 3.23 million people tuned in to the latest Julia Donaldson adaptation, Tiddler, which was narrated by Hannah Waddingham.


    Those numbers are a small fraction of what the most popular shows would have got 50, 20 or even 10 years ago.
    Sheer whataboutery.

    4m ≠ (to quote Pagan2) "a tiny few".

    Of course it's a small proportion of the numbers from 50, 20 or 10 years ago, because... the internet has happened. The BBC still had more viewers than any other channel - broadcast or streaming.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,841

    Hope its not too late @Benpointer competition

    Highest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform.
    Lab 32%
    Con 29%
    LD 16%
    Reform 26%

    Lowest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform.
    Lab 21%
    Con 19%
    LD 9%
    Reform 16%

    Number of Reform MPs on 31/12/2025.
    5

    Number of Tory MP defectors to Reform in 2025.
    0

    Number of Westminster by-elections held in 2025.
    2

    Number of ministers to leave the Westminster cabinet during 2025.
    2

    Number of seats won by the AfD in the 2025 German Federal Election.
    105

    UK CPI figure for November 2025 (Nov 2024 = 2.6%).
    UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2025 (Year to Nov 2024 = £113.2bn).
    £133.2bn

    UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2025 (Oct 23 to Oct 24 = 1.3%).
    1.5%

    US growth annualised rate in Q3 2025 (Q3 2024 = 3.1%).
    3.3%

    EU growth Q3 2024 to Q3 2025 (2024 = 1.0%).
    1.2%

    USD/Ruble exchange rate at London FOREX close on 31/12/2025 (31/12/2024 = 114 USD/RUB).
    162

    The result of the 2025-2026 Ashes series (2023 series: Drawn 2–2).
    Australia 3 - 1 England (Hope I'm wrong!!)

    Got this one, thanks.

    Competition entry is open until the end of January.
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