Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Labouring the economy – politicalbetting.com

12346

Comments

  • I think Iraq had already done for Blair by then - I doubt he would have won the 2010 election.
    If Iraq didn't get him, the 2008 crash probably would have. Remember John Burn-Murdoch's chart of swings against governments? 2008-11ish weren't pretty either.



    1. It's always the economy, stupid.
    2. Governments ride the economy much more than they control it. They may not think so, but they do.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Omnium said:

    That LD number will continue to rise. If only Sir Ed keeps a very low profile he could be next PM. and obviously that'll be a shock to everyone!
    Labour will sink below 20 within a year
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,824

    They ran out of juice.
    I did wonder if the name was a refernce to the German for juice, but was told it stood for something French.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,817

    https://x.com/andrewfeinberg/status/1859714161519047152

    CALM DOWN, PEOPLE.

    Per a transition source and @SecretService, the ambulances were part of Vice President-elect @JDVance’s motorcade.

    False alarm.

    Go about your business.
    One of his - ahem - activities with Don Jr went wrong?
  • Lab leak most likely source of Covid, says Prof Tim Spector

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/21/prof-tim-spector-covid-likely-to-have-come-from-a-lab-leak/

    Drops link and runs away ...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,117
    Leon said:

    Labour will sink below 20 within a year
    Labout being below both the Tories and Reform individually would be quite demoralising for them.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,277
    Leon said:

    Labour will sink below 20 within a year
    There was a YouGov poll in early July 2019 which had the Conservatives on 24%., Reform on 23%. the Liberal Democrats on 20% and Labour on 18%.

    Putting those numbers into Baxter and you get Conservative 217, Reform 158, Labour 105 and Liberal Democrat 85 with SNP on 42.
  • Interesting article on parallels between Starmer and Anthony Albanese:

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/11/20/anthony-albanese-shows-the-disaster-in-store-for-starmer/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,889
    edited November 2024
    O/T

    Spent 2 hours wandering around the Munch Museum wondering where on earth the most famous painting was, because there weren't any notices about it.

    Turns out the website says:

    "The Scream will be temporarily unavailable at the end of November 2024
    We’re making some improvements to our exhibition Infinite, which means some of our versions of The Scream unfortunately won’t be on view between 18.11 and 29.11.24"

    https://www.munchmuseet.no/en/exhibitions/edvard-munch-infinite/the-scream-will-be-temporarily-unavailable-at-the-end-of-november-2024
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,824
    Andy_JS said:

    Reform are probably going to go up at the next election. I can't see them being squeezed by anyone, except perhaps in a few constituencies where the Tories have a strong candidate.
    The question is whether there is tactical voting against them, particularly by those on the left.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,393
    edited November 2024
    Leon said:

    Labour will sink below 20 within a year
    I doubt it. I think their core vote - public sector and unionised layabouts, most ethnic minorities and the welfare dependent - is just about large enough to keep them from that, unless there is some unbelievable catastrophe.

    And there are new supporters, like those thugs they released from prison over the summer - some of whom promised to vote Labour iirc.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,824

    Lab leak most likely source of Covid, says Prof Tim Spector

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/21/prof-tim-spector-covid-likely-to-have-come-from-a-lab-leak/

    Drops link and runs away ...

    PB ahead of the curve.

    Lab leak has been the most likely source for some time. The problem is that there is no direct "smoking gun" evidence, and there may never be. So probability is the best we can do.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881

    Maybe God has given you these Autumnal afternoons and a backlit keyboard. Write something.

    How’s the memoir coming along? I’m expecting plenty of flashbacks and flash forwards - a penguin snack in prison opens to a conversation with penguins in Antarctica. Maybe even an anachronistic approach - the penguin is actually doing bird too, your cell mate - Norman Stanley Penguin - talking sense into you from out in the future, whilst being an actual penguin on the bottom bunk.
    And if you are stirring in plenty of desire, drunkenly fumbling around, and sex, don’t forget what it actually feels like to be in love, too. Glad. On every waking. But how it makes you blind. And when, as it must, it leaves you, in its wake you are bitter and regretful each alternate minute of the day, like being cast around in a fishing junk on a stormy sea.
    And the Pilot calls to you “okay back there?”
    “Yes.” You shout back through the roar. “I know this stretch of water like the back of my hand.”
    “It’s about going forwards.” Says Norman. “Forwards from here. Not wallowing in Nostalgia. One day I am going to fly from this place. Actually fly.”
    Thanks

    I'm actually considering laying down my flints for a year and writing a WGSebaldian experimental novel called THE PALE GREEN NUCLEAR DREAM

    True story
  • Pulpstar said:

    Err what 😂😂

    Labour didn't think this through did they
    Yep, it's a complete lottery depending on personal circumstances

    I assume this is because of the issue with younger farmers being able to sign the farm over to their children to continue farming and hopefully live more than 7 years whereas it is not likely to be an option for older farmers.
    Yes, but the 7 year rule only starts to kick in it either a) the donor fully retires from farming, ie no working for free, even for an odd day or b) they are paid full going rate for any work they continue to do on farm

    If rumours on a rethink are true Clarkson may be right when he said it was a late decision on the final policy
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    edited November 2024

    Lab leak most likely source of Covid, says Prof Tim Spector

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/21/prof-tim-spector-covid-likely-to-have-come-from-a-lab-leak/

    Drops link and runs away ...

    You what??? It came from the lab??????

    Is this some kind of joke?

    Not one single respectable virologist who worked on making dangerously pathogenic coronaviruses at the Wuhan laboratory for making dangerously pathogenic coronaviruses believes the virus which emerged in Wuhan which then killed 25 million people came from their lab in Wuhan. That's the consensus of ALL the involved scientists making the dangerous virus. Ask @bondegezou
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,667
    rcs1000 said:

    PB ahead of the curve.

    Lab leak has been the most likely source for some time. The problem is that there is no direct "smoking gun" evidence, and there may never be. So probability is the best we can do.
    Careful the commissar from the public sector will come along soon to tell you that it's a racist conspiracy theory.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    rcs1000 said:

    PB ahead of the curve.

    Lab leak has been the most likely source for some time. The problem is that there is no direct "smoking gun" evidence, and there may never be. So probability is the best we can do.
    Er, "Leon ahead of the curve". Be fair

    I was the first PBer to say This is obviously the most probable source, and I stuck to my guns throughout years of scorn

    Credit also to @Gardenwalker, @MaxPB and yourself @rcs1000 for at least being open to the idea, from an early stage
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,972
    HYUFD said:

    @PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: The UK is sending farmers abroad over £516m in foreign aid, whilst the inheritance tax changes are set to raise £520m for the Treasury
    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1859708532729221560

    The crapness of Labour at doing politics is becoming jaw-dropping.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,480
    Leon said:

    Thanks

    I'm actually considering laying down my flints for a year and writing a WGSebaldian experimental novel called THE PALE GREEN NUCLEAR DREAM

    True story
    'The Celadon..." would be more eye-catching. Given your recent travels.
  • The crapness of Labour at doing politics is becoming jaw-dropping.
    £22bn blackhole....2 days later....£22bn on carbon capture.
  • DONALD TRUMP GIVETH. And he taketh away.

    Eight days after making the snap decision to nominate Matt Gaetz to be the nation’s next attorney general, Trump phoned him Thursday morning to tell him he wouldn’t get confirmed, according to a source briefed on the conversation. The president-elect explained that Republican senators were too troubled by the sex scandals and investigations surrounding Gaetz and that the constant and salacious distractions had doomed him.


    https://www.thebulwark.com/p/you-dont-have-votes-trump-matt-gaetz-attorney-general
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,972
    edited November 2024

    £22bn blackhole....2 days later....£22bn on carbon capture.
    Find a number...then find an equal number - to utterly undo the politics of the point you are trying to make with the first.

    Repeat.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,972
    Fishing said:

    I doubt it. I think their core vote - public sector and unionised layabouts, most ethnic minorities and the welfare dependent - is just about large enough to keep them from that, unless there is some unbelievable catastrophe.
    Starmer: "hold my pint..."

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,321
    Leon said:

    Er, "Leon ahead of the curve". Be fair

    I was the first PBer to say This is obviously the most probable source, and I stuck to my guns throughout years of scorn

    Credit also to @Gardenwalker, @MaxPB and yourself @rcs1000 for at least being open to the idea, from an early stage
    You were wrong. You believed it was deliberate. You had to be convinced that an accidental leak was the most likely scenario. And others were ahead of you
  • The crapness of Labour at doing politics is becoming jaw-dropping.
    From the Budget document:

    "The government remains committed to restoring ODA spending to 0.7% of GNI as soon as the fiscal circumstances allow. The OBR’s latest forecast shows that the ODA fiscal tests are not due to be met within the Parliament. The government will continue to monitor future forecasts closely, and each year will review and confirm, in accordance with the International Development (Official Development Assistance Target) Act 2015, whether a return to spending 0.7% of GNI on ODA is possible against the latest fiscal forecast. The UK will remain one of the most generous donors amongst the G7, and our ODA offer will continue to grow in line with GNI."

  • Starmer: "hold my pint..."

    Does he drink pints...i had him down as a drinker of halves....there is always one.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,755
    Pulpstar said:

    One of Ken Paxton, Andrew Bailey (No, not him) or Mike Lee for AG I reckon

    Work out who would be the most inappropriate choice, and that's the one. Are there any serial killers with a law degree?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,321

    DONALD TRUMP GIVETH. And he taketh away.

    Eight days after making the snap decision to nominate Matt Gaetz to be the nation’s next attorney general, Trump phoned him Thursday morning to tell him he wouldn’t get confirmed, according to a source briefed on the conversation. The president-elect explained that Republican senators were too troubled by the sex scandals and investigations surrounding Gaetz and that the constant and salacious distractions had doomed him.


    https://www.thebulwark.com/p/you-dont-have-votes-trump-matt-gaetz-attorney-general

    The universe must be having a chuckle at the idea of Trump telling someone that “sex scandals and investigations” make him unfit to serve in high office
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    edited November 2024

    You were wrong. You believed it was deliberate. You had to be convinced that an accidental leak was the most likely scenario. And others were ahead of you
    No I fucking didn't

    Go find the comment where I said that: spoiler, you will not find it

    I said it was near-certainly accidental all along, with a tiny chance of some deliberate release. And I explained why, too - because the only way you would release it deliberately is if you had a vax ready to go. They did not

    I agree with Sean Thomas the thriller writer who explained the entire logic of this in 2021

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-id-write-covid-the-thriller/

    Looks like he wrote that when you were still wanking on about pangolins
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,824

    £22bn blackhole....2 days later....£22bn on carbon capture.
    Here's the thing, if they can sell the carbon for more than £22bn, then they're quids in.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,667
    Leon said:

    Er, "Leon ahead of the curve". Be fair

    I was the first PBer to say This is obviously the most probable source, and I stuck to my guns throughout years of scorn

    Credit also to @Gardenwalker, @MaxPB and yourself @rcs1000 for at least being open to the idea, from an early stage
    Hmm I think I've been on the lab leak train about as long as you, one of my old uni friends put me onto it during a zoom catchup very early on in the pandemic. He works in anti-viral research and said to the rest of us that he would bet us all £100 each that this would turn out to be a lab leak based on the location origin and what he knew of lax Chinese biosecurity.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,480
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Spent 2 hours wandering around the Munch Museum wondering where on earth the most famous painting was, because there weren't any notices about it.

    Turns out the website says:

    "The Scream will be temporarily unavailable at the end of November 2024
    We’re making some improvements to our exhibition Infinite, which means some of our versions of The Scream unfortunately won’t be on view between 18.11 and 29.11.24"

    https://www.munchmuseet.no/en/exhibitions/edvard-munch-infinite/the-scream-will-be-temporarily-unavailable-at-the-end-of-november-2024

    "Girl on the Beach" ("girl of a jetty") is a much better painting. As is his somewhat Jungian "Puberty" (which seems to be content filtered on image searches now that I look. Thank goodness there are still 100s of Jimmy Saville chatting-to-children videos available however. God bless our arbitrary overlords.).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,667
    rcs1000 said:

    Here's the thing, if they can sell the carbon for more than £22bn, then they're quids in.
    Who's going to buy the carbon for that much money? There's no significant market for physical CO2, only credits.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,480
    Leon said:

    No I fucking didn't

    Go find the comment where I said that: spoiler, you will not find it

    I said it was near-certainly accidental all along, with a tiny chance of some deliberate release. And I explained why, too - because the only way you would release it deliberately is if you had a vax ready to go. They did not

    I agree with Sean Thomas the thriller writer who explained the entire logic of this in 2021

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-id-write-covid-the-thriller/

    Looks like he wrote that when you were still wanking on about pangolins
    I'm sure I've recounted this before, but well before any talk of lockdowns I was walking past two bio/eng professors who were laughing along the lines of "Haha! It wouldn't surprise me! That facility is a total sh*t show!".
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    MaxPB said:

    Hmm I think I've been on the lab leak train about as long as you, one of my old uni friends put me onto it during a zoom catchup very early on in the pandemic. He works in anti-viral research and said to the rest of us that he would bet us all £100 each that this would turn out to be a lab leak based on the location origin and what he knew of lax Chinese biosecurity.
    Fair enough. We can share the spoils, as we laugh at @bondegezou, @turbotubbs, @Nigelb and their ilk
  • DoctorG said:

    Yep, it's a complete lottery depending on personal circumstances Yes, but the 7 year rule only starts to kick in it either a) the donor fully retires from farming, ie no working for free, even for an odd day or b) they are paid full going rate for any work they continue to do on farm

    If rumours on a rethink are true Clarkson may be right when he said it was a late decision on the final policy
    Thats wierd. WHy should working on the farm have any affect on the 7 year rule. What matters is that the farm/house etc is fully, legally, handed over to the heir.
  • MaxPB said:

    Who's going to buy the carbon for that much money? There's no significant market for physical CO2, only credits.
    Carbon tax incoming ...

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq8v55eqd73o
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,117
    Starmer has no political antennae, part 6883:

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1859682871876911310

    I'm determined to deliver growth, create wealth and put more money in people’s pockets.

    This can only be achieved by working in partnership with leading businesses, like @BlackRock, to capitalise on the UK’s position as a world leading hub for investment.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,103
    edited November 2024
    HYUFD said:

    No it worked once with Boris and that was to get Brexit done and win back voters lost to Farage and when the economy was rather better than now
    In the unlikely event that Labour's vote collapses in four years time they've got two get out of jail cards.

    1. Offer to take the UK back into the EU without a referendum. Make it a manifesto pledge

    2. An orderly retirement and a new leader

    3. Both

    Though the governing party has so many levers and bribes available to them it's very difficult to lose such a large majority at the first attempt.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,480
    rcs1000 said:

    Here's the thing, if they can sell the carbon for more than £22bn, then they're quids in.
    If the can only sell it for £2 then we all pick up the bill though? With delight in our eyes at having served the greater good, I'm sure.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,667
    Leon said:

    Fair enough. We can share the spoils, as we laugh at @bondegezou, @turbotubbs, @Nigelb and their ilk
    The COVID commissars, China's useful idiots.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320

    The crapness of Labour at doing politics is becoming jaw-dropping.
    I second that. Jim Murphy kept making the point that Labour were not getting the politics right on the Tuesday edition of Newsnight.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,359

    Starmer has no political antennae, part 6883:

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1859682871876911310

    I'm determined to deliver growth, create wealth and put more money in people’s pockets.

    This can only be achieved by working in partnership with leading businesses, like @BlackRock, to capitalise on the UK’s position as a world leading hub for investment.

    Blackrock is a big thing with conspiracy nutters - who don't seem to understand they (and similar firms) hold shares on behalf of other people. They do get to use the votes though, of course.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,889
    "Russian ambassador says UK 'directly involved' in war after Storm Shadow attack"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzwG_b9KFo8

  • Julie Tsirkin
    @news_jul
    ·
    2h
    At least 5 Senate Rs -- McConnell, Murkowski, Collins, Mullin & (Sen-elect) Curtis — were a "no" on Gaetz and had communicated to others that they were unlikely going to be swayed.

    As many as 30 were very uncomfortable about having to vote for Gaetz.
  • Thats wierd. WHy should working on the farm have any affect on the 7 year rule. What matters is that the farm/house etc is fully, legally, handed over to the heir.
    It's seen as a benefit in kind, you can gift a farm to your descendents, and as long as you live 7 years should avoid tax. If you continue to live in the farmhouse after gifting, would need to pay market rent for it
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,889
    edited November 2024

    Lab leak most likely source of Covid, says Prof Tim Spector

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/21/prof-tim-spector-covid-likely-to-have-come-from-a-lab-leak/

    Drops link and runs away ...

    Right from the start this was a very strong possibility. For some reason many people were highly offended by the idea of a lab leak in 2020/21/22.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    MaxPB said:

    The COVID commissars, China's useful idiots.
    It is shocking and yet psychologically interesting, how many apparently intelligent people clung on to Wet Market, way beyond the point of Obvious Absurdity

    Some did it because they are scientists, and the idea of lab leak made them feel professional shame, some did it because of Trump, and "anything he says must be wrong", and some did it because they are, simply, intellectual cowards. These last are the worst

    There are other subsets of fools, one day someone should write a book analysing the entire bizarre phenomenon
  • fitalass said:

    I second that. Jim Murphy kept making the point that Labour were not getting the politics right on the Tuesday edition of Newsnight.
    I thought Labour could have done with a more business orientated spokesperson on Tuesday night. It's the business side they're really struggling with right now, this is where you need MPs with experience in the sector to help

    Daisy cooper speaking well on Question time, Minette Batters struggled with the initial question
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,755
    HYUFD said:

    @PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: The UK is sending farmers abroad over £516m in foreign aid, whilst the inheritance tax changes are set to raise £520m for the Treasury
    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1859708532729221560

    One rather sad aspect of elite takeover of political parties (and this applies to the Conservatives as well as Labour) is that they end up running the country for the benefit of their peer-classes outside the UK, pumping profits out and using the locals to absorb the losses. We aren't being governed, we're being strip-mined.
  • Leon said:

    It is shocking and yet psychologically interesting, how many apparently intelligent people clung on to Wet Market, way beyond the point of Obvious Absurdity

    Some did it because they are scientists, and the idea of lab leak made them feel professional shame, some did it because of Trump, and "anything he says must be wrong", and some did it because they are, simply, intellectual cowards. These last are the worst

    There are other subsets of fools, one day someone should write a book analysing the entire bizarre phenomenon
    Always struck me as highly unlikely that it was a natural outbreak given there was literally a lab full of 'mad scientists' and test tubes in the very same town where it all started. Occam.

    But. What matter now?


  • DoctorG said:

    It's seen as a benefit in kind, you can gift a farm to your descendents, and as long as you live 7 years should avoid tax. If you continue to live in the farmhouse after gifting, would need to pay market rent for it
    I don't see how "working for free" as ought to do with this?

    Continuing to live in the farmhouse is defo a "benefit". You can't hand a house over and just carry on living there as if nothing has happened under IHT rules.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,103
    edited November 2024

    Lab leak most likely source of Covid, says Prof Tim Spector

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/21/prof-tim-spector-covid-likely-to-have-come-from-a-lab-leak/

    Drops link and runs away ...

    Just another bog standard conspiracy theory that has been put forward a hundred times. No new evidence just 'It seems quite likely to me' says average ranking government scientist.

    The Telegraph are becoming the new Express during their Diana mystery phase. Every day a new theory
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,755
    edited November 2024
    One of the disadvantages of continually working late/weekends is that I don't have the time to watch YouTubes I like (hence the listening in background). Some nice ones have dropped in the last 48hrs.
  • Fishing said:

    I doubt it. I think their core vote - public sector and unionised layabouts, most ethnic minorities and the welfare dependent - is just about large enough to keep them from that, unless there is some unbelievable catastrophe.

    And there are new supporters, like those thugs they released from prison over the summer - some of whom promised to vote Labour iirc.
    I know PB tends to default to the right in the absence of any major new developments, but some of these most recent discussions on Starmer are becoming so partisam as to segue into simple propaganda.

    I'm not a member of any of the groups mentioned there , for instance, and still find Starmer to be hugely less
    incompetent than Truss or Johnson. I may also vote for him again.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,136
    Con gain from Lab in Gosport, Lab hold in Sefton.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,196
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,755
    Leon said:

    Thanks

    I'm actually considering laying down my flints for a year and writing a WGSebaldian experimental novel called THE PALE GREEN NUCLEAR DREAM

    True story
    A man's reach should exceed his grasp. You have the time and money, so take it whilst you still can. You never know when things will go wrong.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,103
    viewcode said:

    One rather sad aspect of elite takeover of political parties (and this applies to the Conservatives as well as Labour) is that they end up running the country for the benefit of their peer-classes outside the UK, pumping profits out and using the locals to absorb the losses. We aren't being governed, we're being strip-mined.
    Who are these people?
  • On the Wuhan lab leak theory:

    In 2007 the last foot and mouth outbreak occurred, as a result of a lab leak in Surrey. The drainage pipes newrby were inspected and the disease was found to have either come from the Pirbright lab (UK government agency owned and run) or the Merial lab across the road

    It was never discovered which one was the source of the original leak, both would have had Foot and Mouth disease strains inside

    This is in a western country, six years after a major FMD outbreak resulted in the deaths of over 6 million head of livestock - pathetic security

    What hope have we got of ever finding the truth in China? I agree, it's likely covid came from the lab

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_United_Kingdom_foot-and-mouth_outbreak
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,889
    viewcode said:

    One of the disadvantages of continually working late/weekends is that I don't have the time to watch YouTubes I like (hence the listening in background). Some nice ones have dropped in the last 48hrs.


    Thanks viewcode. I'll try to get round to watching these.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,136
    slade said:

    Con gain from Lab in Gosport, Lab hold in Sefton.

    Lab majority in Sefton was just over 100; usually it is over 1000.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,196
    Roger said:

    In the unlikely event that Labour's vote collapses in four years time they've got two get out of jail cards.

    1. Offer to take the UK back into the EU without a referendum. Make it a manifesto pledge

    2. An orderly retirement and a new leader

    3. Both

    Though the governing party has so many levers and bribes available to them it's very difficult to lose such a large majority at the first attempt.
    Yet they are running the economy so poorly and putting through so many unpopular policies on the latest polls Labour will already lose its 174 majority.

    1 would of course see even more white working class Labour voters go Reform
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,755
    Roger said:

    Who are these people?
    Basically everybody at Cabinet level in the Starmer, Sunak, Truss and possibly Johnson administrations. I've basically lost my faith in UK political parties. I also use the word "basically" too much :(
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,889
    viewcode said:

    Basically everybody at Cabinet level in the Starmer, Sunak, Truss and possibly Johnson administrations. I've basically lost my faith in UK political parties. I also use the word "basically" too much :(
    This is why Reform may do well at the next election.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,658
    slade said:

    Con gain from Lab in Gosport, Lab hold in Sefton.

    Today Gosport, tomorrow Westminster :D
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,889
    slade said:

    Lab majority in Sefton was just over 100; usually it is over 1000.
    Turnout was about 13%.
  • I don't see how "working for free" as ought to do with this?

    Continuing to live in the farmhouse is defo a "benefit". You can't hand a house over and just carry on living there as if nothing has happened under IHT rules.

    Sorry, should have stated that the nature of farming means kids/family members are often not paid the going rate for their labour

    Lots of older farmers are mainly in farming for lifestyle/love of the job, many die with their boots on, they don't really retire

    So it's likely they would want to continue working on the holding after gifting, but wouldn't want to disadvantage the business by drawing a full wage for their work. This would conflict with any gift made under the 7 year rule

    It all comes under "Reservation of Benefit rules" or some similar
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,658
    Roger said:

    In the unlikely event that Labour's vote collapses in four years time they've got two get out of jail cards.

    1. Offer to take the UK back into the EU without a referendum. Make it a manifesto pledge

    2. An orderly retirement and a new leader

    3. Both

    Though the governing party has so many levers and bribes available to them it's very difficult to lose such a large majority at the first attempt.
    Oh great, lets reopen Brexit? 😂
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,196
    edited November 2024
    'John Prescott on Ed Miliband, Disraeli and 'one-nation'

    02:03
    John Prescott on Ed Miliband, Disraeli and 'one-nation'
    Close
    Lord Prescott claimed not to know who Disraeli was and said he preferred the title "one Labour" or "just Labour" when asked about the one-nation phrase.

    Ed Miliband name-checked the former Conservative prime minister and referred to "one-nation" more than 40 times when he addressed the Labour Party conference in Manchester.

    The former deputy prime minister said the leader gave a "brilliant speech" and had to stay in modern times, while describing himself as "the old man in this".

    He told Andrew Neil: "You know I am not an intellectual, I have proved that over the years haven't I? Who the hell is Disraeli?"
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-19817520
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,755
    Andy_JS said:

    Thanks viewcode. I'll try to get round to watching these.
    They are wildly disparate in politics, and there's no underlying theme other than that they have easy-listening voices explaining things in a reasonable way that enables me to understand, or pretend to understand, the subject. The kind of thing it is good to have on in the background whilst I work.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    DoctorG said:

    I thought Labour could have done with a more business orientated spokesperson on Tuesday night. It's the business side they're really struggling with right now, this is where you need MPs with experience in the sector to help

    Daisy cooper speaking well on Question time, Minette Batters struggled with the initial question
    While this Labour Government's political messaging has been absolutely dire, their bigger and far more damaging problem longer term now is the loss of public trust in such a short time in Office even if they do manage to turn the comms operation around in No10 & No11 Downing Street. What were they doing for the last two years because it certainly was not doing the proper planning and preparation when it came to their policy grid and messaging?

    What ever your opinion of the farmers protest this week, the very clear underlying message was yet again that this Labour Government had lied to them before the GE, its now becoming a constant theme in their first few months in Office. Starmer's poor performance as PM has been no surprise, all the clues were there even before he became Labour leader, the whole Government operation comes across as being completely rudderless under him.
  • fitalass said:

    While this Labour Government's political messaging has been absolutely dire, their bigger and far more damaging problem longer term now is the loss of public trust in such a short time in Office even if they do manage to turn the comms operation around in No10 & No11 Downing Street. What were they doing for the last two years because it certainly was not doing the proper planning and preparation when it came to their policy grid and messaging?

    What ever your opinion of the farmers protest this week, the very clear underlying message was yet again that this Labour Government had lied to them before the GE, its now becoming a constant theme in their first few months in Office. Starmer's poor performance as PM has been no surprise, all the clues were there even before he became Labour leader, the whole Government operation comes across as being completely rudderless under him.
    Again, if we compare with Johnson or Truss, though, Tory member-voted leaders, he looks like a cross between Einstein and Roosevelt.

    It's still early days for him.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,136
    slade said:

    Con gain from Lib Dem in Somerset.

    Candidates were important. Con was former councillor for the area; Lib Dems lost Sarah Dykes personal vote.
  • Trump announces new attorney general pick - Pam Bondi, a former Florida attorney general.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,181

    Again, if we compare with Johnson or Truss, though, Tory member-voted leaders, he looks like a cross between Einstein and Roosevelt.

    It's still early days for him.
    It also appears to be the last days for him.
  • Trump announces new attorney general pick - Pam Bondi, a former Florida attorney general.

    Let me take a wild guess - she's mid 30s and blonde?

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    DoctorG said:

    Sorry, should have stated that the nature of farming means kids/family members are often not paid the going rate for their labour

    Lots of older farmers are mainly in farming for lifestyle/love of the job, many die with their boots on, they don't really retire

    So it's likely they would want to continue working on the holding after gifting, but wouldn't want to disadvantage the business by drawing a full wage for their work. This would conflict with any gift made under the 7 year rule

    It all comes under "Reservation of Benefit rules" or some similar
    You hit the nail on the head there. I live in a very rural area, and all the nearest farms to me have been family run for generations. One of them only provides a living for the son that took over when his Dad retired, but his Dad still helps out on a daily basis as does his siblings at the busiest times of the year despite them all having full time jobs elsewhere.
  • It also appears to be the last days for him.
    I can't see thar he's under any immediate threat from within his party, and still has both a huge majority,and five years to go.

    I'm more worried, personally, about the Russia-Ukraine war, at the moment.
  • fitalass said:

    You hit the nail on the head there. I live in a very rural area, and all the nearest farms to me have been family run for generations. One of them only provides a living for the son that took over when his Dad retired, but his Dad still helps out on a daily basis as does his siblings at the busiest times of the year despite them all having full time jobs elsewhere.
    I still don't understand the point about benefit reservation.

    Sure - you can no longer live in the farmhouse. Unless a rental agreement is made.

    But I don't see why you can't help out or do a few hours paid time with the cows each week? Nothing to do with IHT
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,824
    MaxPB said:

    Who's going to buy the carbon for that much money? There's no significant market for physical CO2, only credits.
    Sorry, it was a joke.

    A poor one I grant you.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,117

    Trump announces new attorney general pick - Pam Bondi, a former Florida attorney general.

    The MSNBC verdict is that she’s dangerous because she’s competent.

    https://x.com/collinrugg/status/1859747796661739802
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,359
    slade said:

    Con gain from Lib Dem in Somerset.

    Is there an up to date aggregator? BritainElects appears to have fallen behind...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,429
    Roger said:

    Just another bog standard conspiracy theory that has been put forward a hundred times. No new evidence just 'It seems quite likely to me' says average ranking government scientist.

    The Telegraph are becoming the new Express during their Diana mystery phase. Every day a new theory
    “average ranking government scientist”

    He’s Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at Kings College London.
  • I still don't understand the point about benefit reservation.

    Sure - you can no longer live in the farmhouse. Unless a rental agreement is made.

    But I don't see why you can't help out or do a few hours paid time with the cows each week? Nothing to do with IHT
    Apologies, still trying to get my head round everything, it's a bit confusing as the new £1 million limit covers both APR and Business relief

    I think it's mainly going to be an issue if the parent/donor wants to continue living in farm property or a cottage that they have gifted. You could stay in farmhouse and pay rent, but say you were to keep working then you may have to be careful not to be seen to still run the farm business if you had gifted that too

    A couple of links below may explain some details:

    https://www.nfus.org.uk/news/blog/budget-implications--what-you-need-to-know

    https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/inheritance-tax-manual/ihtm04064

    Essentially you can't be seen to be getting the benefit of something you've gifted, ie. Not continuing to stay in the farmhouse for free, and also can't be seen to still be running the business regardless of where you live, ie. The stock, feed etc, being part of the business would need to be proved to be under the new owners control
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,755
    Andy_JS said:

    Thanks viewcode. I'll try to get round to watching these.
    OK, the "PragerU indoctrinate kids by whitewashing Frederick Douglass" one is a discussion piece not scripted, and isn't very good. His scripted stuff is must better.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,824

    “average ranking government scientist”

    He’s Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at Kings College London.
    I think the people in this country have had enough of experts.
  • The MSNBC verdict is that she’s dangerous because she’s competent.

    https://x.com/collinrugg/status/1859747796661739802
    That's a cogent assessment, chaos and incompetence are the best chance of Trump being mitigated, someone who can competently carry out his desired policies will be dangerous.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967
    Leon said:

    Thanks

    I'm actually considering laying down my flints for a year and writing a WGSebaldian experimental novel called THE PALE GREEN NUCLEAR DREAM

    True story
    Wow. Yes that’s just the thing - recollection and fiction and all this decay. Told just as you believe it, without recourse to any compromise.

    “Fucking Fly.” Said Norman. “Like the God’s fly. Right up to the very top of the world.” With his outstretched wings, he flapped the newspaper in half, page 2 falling over page 3 he had drawn over. “And from there.” He paused, and smiled. “Rain down on them all.”
  • Leon said:

    It is shocking and yet psychologically interesting, how many apparently intelligent people clung on to Wet Market, way beyond the point of Obvious Absurdity

    Some did it because they are scientists, and the idea of lab leak made them feel professional shame, some did it because of Trump, and "anything he says must be wrong", and some did it because they are, simply, intellectual cowards. These last are the worst

    There are other subsets of fools, one day someone should write a book analysing the entire bizarre phenomenon
    GIN1138 said:

    It's interesting to ponder isn't it? Blair/Brown Vs Cameron/Osborne in 2010?
    2010 Blair/Brown with a small majority, Blair wouldn't have faced the same vitriol from the media that Brown did.
  • eek said:

    Got a spare few million because that is what the .com version of your desired name will cost you nowadays.

    Also it's not exactly as relevant when most consumption is via the phone app...
    Bluesky is at bsky.app – not bluesky.app. And even if the latter was already taken, they could have called it something else whose domain name was available.
  • If Iraq didn't get him, the 2008 crash probably would have. Remember John Burn-Murdoch's chart of swings against governments? 2008-11ish weren't pretty either.



    1. It's always the economy, stupid.
    2. Governments ride the economy much more than they control it. They may not think so, but they do.
    Accidental Philip Larkin?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    The MSNBC verdict is that she’s dangerous because she’s competent.

    https://x.com/collinrugg/status/1859747796661739802
    Ha, so Gaetz stands aside because he doesn’t want to be ‘a distraction’, and the next pick is a former State AG who is going to be ‘terrifyingly competent’ according to Trump’s opponents.

    I suspect the Trump campaign are well prepared when it comes to backup choices for the more controversial appointments.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,285
    edited November 2024
    rcs1000 said:

    I think the people in this country have had enough of experts.
    That didn't go so well, if you were a Tory in Surrey Heath did it? Gove stood down, but he would have lost all the same, if he had stood. Hubris before nemesis.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,858
    I know Starship gets all the attention, but Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket has just gone vertical fully-stacked for the first time. And it looks beautiful:

    https://x.com/blueorigin/status/1859784773100503412

    (Still a way away from launch; they have to do the first stage test firing.)
  • Good morning, everyone.

    F1: I believe third practice is about to start.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: I believe third practice is about to start.

    Second practice. ;)
  • Mr. Sandpit, cunningly, you spotted my entirely deliberately and not at all sleepy mistake. I'll try and remember to put up the pre-qualifying tosh today.
This discussion has been closed.