🌳CON 28% (-1) 🌹LAB 25% (-2) ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2) 🌍 GREEN 8% (nc) 🟡 SNP 3% (+1)
Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.
Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
Cameron never polled as unfavourably as Starmer is now
Starmer comes across v badly on television .. not as bad as Brown but not far off....
I think SKS may be WORSE than Brown, because he has all of his bad attributes and very few of his good attributes.
For all Browns faults (and there were many) he was an intellectual, he was the "brains" behind New Labour, he knew what he wanted to achieve as CotE if not as PM. He was generally an exceptionally formidable politician and no doubt one of the giant political figures of later 20th Century British politics.
If he'd been willing to acknowledge his "flaws" and let Tony carry on being the "front man" while he was the "brains" , New Labour could have had 20 years in power and Brexit would probably never have happened.
But getting back to SKS, sadly none of the above positive attributes apply, yet he is waylaid by most of Browns negative character traits.
I think the PM Starmer most likely resembles is probably the appalling Edward Heath? And possibly Theresa May?
I think Iraq had already done for Blair by then - I doubt he would have won the 2010 election.
If Iraq didn't get him, the 2008 crash probably would have. Remember John Burn-Murdoch's chart of swings against governments? 2008-11ish weren't pretty either.
1. It's always the economy, stupid. 2. Governments ride the economy much more than they control it. They may not think so, but they do.
The irony is that Europe had a decent battery company, called SAFT. It was French, it specialized in high end batteries (planes, spacecraft, that kind of thing; SpaceX used them).
Then it got bought by French oil company Total, and hasn't been heard of since.
Sounds like it's been Totalled.
They ran out of juice.
I did wonder if the name was a refernce to the German for juice, but was told it stood for something French.
Spent 2 hours wandering around the Munch Museum wondering where on earth the most famous painting was, because there weren't any notices about it.
Turns out the website says:
"The Scream will be temporarily unavailable at the end of November 2024 We’re making some improvements to our exhibition Infinite, which means some of our versions of The Scream unfortunately won’t be on view between 18.11 and 29.11.24"
🌳CON 28% (-1) 🌹LAB 25% (-2) ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2) 🌍 GREEN 8% (nc) 🟡 SNP 3% (+1)
Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.
Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
Only because all the Lab > Lib-Dem tactical voters went off to Labour the moment the Lib-Dems became part of the Coalition.
This situation is different with Con managing to get a lead over Lab while still having Farage splitting the right-wing vote and effectively propping up Starmer in government...
Of course Reform are also now eating into the Labour vote, not just the Tory vote and that a similar pattern helped Cameron win a majority in 2015
I would not be at all surprised if the next election lead to a hung parliament and a very silly Con/Ref coalition government but hopefully Kemi can squash Starmer AND Farage and deliver a sensibly reforming Conservative majority government...
I think at best she can hope for the former, unless she really squeezes Reform and the LDs as well as Labour.
Today's MiC poll would see a hung parliament but Labour still narrowly ahead on seats, Labour 268 Tories 247 and LDs 68 and Reform 14 so likely a Labour minority government propped up by the LDs.
Reform are probably going to go up at the next election. I can't see them being squeezed by anyone, except perhaps in a few constituencies where the Tories have a strong candidate.
The question is whether there is tactical voting against them, particularly by those on the left.
🌳CON 28% (-1) 🌹LAB 25% (-2) ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2) 🌍 GREEN 8% (nc) 🟡 SNP 3% (+1)
That LD number will continue to rise. If only Sir Ed keeps a very low profile he could be next PM. and obviously that'll be a shock to everyone!
Labour will sink below 20 within a year
I doubt it. I think their core vote - public sector and unionised layabouts, most ethnic minorities and the welfare dependent - is just about large enough to keep them from that, unless there is some unbelievable catastrophe.
And there are new supporters, like those thugs they released from prison over the summer - some of whom promised to vote Labour iirc.
Lab leak has been the most likely source for some time. The problem is that there is no direct "smoking gun" evidence, and there may never be. So probability is the best we can do.
Maybe God has given you these Autumnal afternoons and a backlit keyboard. Write something.
How’s the memoir coming along? I’m expecting plenty of flashbacks and flash forwards - a penguin snack in prison opens to a conversation with penguins in Antarctica. Maybe even an anachronistic approach - the penguin is actually doing bird too, your cell mate - Norman Stanley Penguin - talking sense into you from out in the future, whilst being an actual penguin on the bottom bunk. And if you are stirring in plenty of desire, drunkenly fumbling around, and sex, don’t forget what it actually feels like to be in love, too. Glad. On every waking. But how it makes you blind. And when, as it must, it leaves you, in its wake you are bitter and regretful each alternate minute of the day, like being cast around in a fishing junk on a stormy sea. And the Pilot calls to you “okay back there?” “Yes.” You shout back through the roar. “I know this stretch of water like the back of my hand.” “It’s about going forwards.” Says Norman. “Forwards from here. Not wallowing in Nostalgia. One day I am going to fly from this place. Actually fly.”
Thanks
I'm actually considering laying down my flints for a year and writing a WGSebaldian experimental novel called THE PALE GREEN NUCLEAR DREAM
I assume this is because of the issue with younger farmers being able to sign the farm over to their children to continue farming and hopefully live more than 7 years whereas it is not likely to be an option for older farmers.
Yes, but the 7 year rule only starts to kick in it either a) the donor fully retires from farming, ie no working for free, even for an odd day or b) they are paid full going rate for any work they continue to do on farm
If rumours on a rethink are true Clarkson may be right when he said it was a late decision on the final policy
Not one single respectable virologist who worked on making dangerously pathogenic coronaviruses at the Wuhan laboratory for making dangerously pathogenic coronaviruses believes the virus which emerged in Wuhan which then killed 25 million people came from their lab in Wuhan. That's the consensus of ALL the involved scientists making the dangerous virus. Ask @bondegezou
Lab leak has been the most likely source for some time. The problem is that there is no direct "smoking gun" evidence, and there may never be. So probability is the best we can do.
Careful the commissar from the public sector will come along soon to tell you that it's a racist conspiracy theory.
Lab leak has been the most likely source for some time. The problem is that there is no direct "smoking gun" evidence, and there may never be. So probability is the best we can do.
Er, "Leon ahead of the curve". Be fair
I was the first PBer to say This is obviously the most probable source, and I stuck to my guns throughout years of scorn
Credit also to @Gardenwalker, @MaxPB and yourself @rcs1000 for at least being open to the idea, from an early stage
Maybe God has given you these Autumnal afternoons and a backlit keyboard. Write something.
How’s the memoir coming along? I’m expecting plenty of flashbacks and flash forwards - a penguin snack in prison opens to a conversation with penguins in Antarctica. Maybe even an anachronistic approach - the penguin is actually doing bird too, your cell mate - Norman Stanley Penguin - talking sense into you from out in the future, whilst being an actual penguin on the bottom bunk. And if you are stirring in plenty of desire, drunkenly fumbling around, and sex, don’t forget what it actually feels like to be in love, too. Glad. On every waking. But how it makes you blind. And when, as it must, it leaves you, in its wake you are bitter and regretful each alternate minute of the day, like being cast around in a fishing junk on a stormy sea. And the Pilot calls to you “okay back there?” “Yes.” You shout back through the roar. “I know this stretch of water like the back of my hand.” “It’s about going forwards.” Says Norman. “Forwards from here. Not wallowing in Nostalgia. One day I am going to fly from this place. Actually fly.”
Thanks
I'm actually considering laying down my flints for a year and writing a WGSebaldian experimental novel called THE PALE GREEN NUCLEAR DREAM
True story
'The Celadon..." would be more eye-catching. Given your recent travels.
Eight days after making the snap decision to nominate Matt Gaetz to be the nation’s next attorney general, Trump phoned him Thursday morning to tell him he wouldn’t get confirmed, according to a source briefed on the conversation. The president-elect explained that Republican senators were too troubled by the sex scandals and investigations surrounding Gaetz and that the constant and salacious distractions had doomed him.
🌳CON 28% (-1) 🌹LAB 25% (-2) ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2) 🌍 GREEN 8% (nc) 🟡 SNP 3% (+1)
That LD number will continue to rise. If only Sir Ed keeps a very low profile he could be next PM. and obviously that'll be a shock to everyone!
Labour will sink below 20 within a year
I doubt it. I think their core vote - public sector and unionised layabouts, most ethnic minorities and the welfare dependent - is just about large enough to keep them from that, unless there is some unbelievable catastrophe.
Lab leak has been the most likely source for some time. The problem is that there is no direct "smoking gun" evidence, and there may never be. So probability is the best we can do.
Er, "Leon ahead of the curve". Be fair
I was the first PBer to say This is obviously the most probable source, and I stuck to my guns throughout years of scorn
Credit also to @Gardenwalker, @MaxPB and yourself @rcs1000 for at least being open to the idea, from an early stage
You were wrong. You believed it was deliberate. You had to be convinced that an accidental leak was the most likely scenario. And others were ahead of you
The crapness of Labour at doing politics is becoming jaw-dropping.
From the Budget document:
"The government remains committed to restoring ODA spending to 0.7% of GNI as soon as the fiscal circumstances allow. The OBR’s latest forecast shows that the ODA fiscal tests are not due to be met within the Parliament. The government will continue to monitor future forecasts closely, and each year will review and confirm, in accordance with the International Development (Official Development Assistance Target) Act 2015, whether a return to spending 0.7% of GNI on ODA is possible against the latest fiscal forecast. The UK will remain one of the most generous donors amongst the G7, and our ODA offer will continue to grow in line with GNI."
🌳CON 28% (-1) 🌹LAB 25% (-2) ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2) 🌍 GREEN 8% (nc) 🟡 SNP 3% (+1)
That LD number will continue to rise. If only Sir Ed keeps a very low profile he could be next PM. and obviously that'll be a shock to everyone!
Labour will sink below 20 within a year
I doubt it. I think their core vote - public sector and unionised layabouts, most ethnic minorities and the welfare dependent - is just about large enough to keep them from that, unless there is some unbelievable catastrophe.
Starmer: "hold my pint..."
Does he drink pints...i had him down as a drinker of halves....there is always one.
Eight days after making the snap decision to nominate Matt Gaetz to be the nation’s next attorney general, Trump phoned him Thursday morning to tell him he wouldn’t get confirmed, according to a source briefed on the conversation. The president-elect explained that Republican senators were too troubled by the sex scandals and investigations surrounding Gaetz and that the constant and salacious distractions had doomed him.
The universe must be having a chuckle at the idea of Trump telling someone that “sex scandals and investigations” make him unfit to serve in high office
Lab leak has been the most likely source for some time. The problem is that there is no direct "smoking gun" evidence, and there may never be. So probability is the best we can do.
Er, "Leon ahead of the curve". Be fair
I was the first PBer to say This is obviously the most probable source, and I stuck to my guns throughout years of scorn
Credit also to @Gardenwalker, @MaxPB and yourself @rcs1000 for at least being open to the idea, from an early stage
You were wrong. You believed it was deliberate. You had to be convinced that an accidental leak was the most likely scenario. And others were ahead of you
No I fucking didn't
Go find the comment where I said that: spoiler, you will not find it
I said it was near-certainly accidental all along, with a tiny chance of some deliberate release. And I explained why, too - because the only way you would release it deliberately is if you had a vax ready to go. They did not
I agree with Sean Thomas the thriller writer who explained the entire logic of this in 2021
Lab leak has been the most likely source for some time. The problem is that there is no direct "smoking gun" evidence, and there may never be. So probability is the best we can do.
Er, "Leon ahead of the curve". Be fair
I was the first PBer to say This is obviously the most probable source, and I stuck to my guns throughout years of scorn
Credit also to @Gardenwalker, @MaxPB and yourself @rcs1000 for at least being open to the idea, from an early stage
Hmm I think I've been on the lab leak train about as long as you, one of my old uni friends put me onto it during a zoom catchup very early on in the pandemic. He works in anti-viral research and said to the rest of us that he would bet us all £100 each that this would turn out to be a lab leak based on the location origin and what he knew of lax Chinese biosecurity.
Spent 2 hours wandering around the Munch Museum wondering where on earth the most famous painting was, because there weren't any notices about it.
Turns out the website says:
"The Scream will be temporarily unavailable at the end of November 2024 We’re making some improvements to our exhibition Infinite, which means some of our versions of The Scream unfortunately won’t be on view between 18.11 and 29.11.24"
"Girl on the Beach" ("girl of a jetty") is a much better painting. As is his somewhat Jungian "Puberty" (which seems to be content filtered on image searches now that I look. Thank goodness there are still 100s of Jimmy Saville chatting-to-children videos available however. God bless our arbitrary overlords.).
Lab leak has been the most likely source for some time. The problem is that there is no direct "smoking gun" evidence, and there may never be. So probability is the best we can do.
Er, "Leon ahead of the curve". Be fair
I was the first PBer to say This is obviously the most probable source, and I stuck to my guns throughout years of scorn
Credit also to @Gardenwalker, @MaxPB and yourself @rcs1000 for at least being open to the idea, from an early stage
You were wrong. You believed it was deliberate. You had to be convinced that an accidental leak was the most likely scenario. And others were ahead of you
No I fucking didn't
Go find the comment where I said that: spoiler, you will not find it
I said it was near-certainly accidental all along, with a tiny chance of some deliberate release. And I explained why, too - because the only way you would release it deliberately is if you had a vax ready to go. They did not
I agree with Sean Thomas the thriller writer who explained the entire logic of this in 2021
Looks like he wrote that when you were still wanking on about pangolins
I'm sure I've recounted this before, but well before any talk of lockdowns I was walking past two bio/eng professors who were laughing along the lines of "Haha! It wouldn't surprise me! That facility is a total sh*t show!".
Lab leak has been the most likely source for some time. The problem is that there is no direct "smoking gun" evidence, and there may never be. So probability is the best we can do.
Er, "Leon ahead of the curve". Be fair
I was the first PBer to say This is obviously the most probable source, and I stuck to my guns throughout years of scorn
Credit also to @Gardenwalker, @MaxPB and yourself @rcs1000 for at least being open to the idea, from an early stage
Hmm I think I've been on the lab leak train about as long as you, one of my old uni friends put me onto it during a zoom catchup very early on in the pandemic. He works in anti-viral research and said to the rest of us that he would bet us all £100 each that this would turn out to be a lab leak based on the location origin and what he knew of lax Chinese biosecurity.
I assume this is because of the issue with younger farmers being able to sign the farm over to their children to continue farming and hopefully live more than 7 years whereas it is not likely to be an option for older farmers.
Yes, but the 7 year rule only starts to kick in it either a) the donor fully retires from farming, ie no working for free, even for an odd day or b) they are paid full going rate for any work they continue to do on farm
If rumours on a rethink are true Clarkson may be right when he said it was a late decision on the final policy
Thats wierd. WHy should working on the farm have any affect on the 7 year rule. What matters is that the farm/house etc is fully, legally, handed over to the heir.
I'm determined to deliver growth, create wealth and put more money in people’s pockets.
This can only be achieved by working in partnership with leading businesses, like @BlackRock, to capitalise on the UK’s position as a world leading hub for investment.
Do you ever think of posting anything constructive? Your daily nonsense about Labour belittles you. After going through your soap opera before the last election I'm surprised you don't spend at least a little time in quiet reflection
It is perfectly apparent Labour are in disarray and obviously you are not taking it well
I am content the conservative party is led by Kemi who resigned over Johnson and Pitcher, and credit Sunak and Hunt in stabilising the economy after 6 weeks of Truss's disaster achieving the highest rate of growth in the G7
Indeed if you are upset it's must be getting to you
As we're both going to have to live with them for the next four years you're really going to have to refresh your script. I only come on here to read interesting and sometimes well written posts. I guess that's what most people are here for. Yesterday we got a jem from Firestopper. Most people have only time to read a limited number. Why not try to excite by saying something surprising if 'interesting' is not available...
BigG having defended Boris, having defended Truss and having defended Sunak is enjoying giving Labour a kicking, It’s a blessed relief for him. Let him have his moment.
It doesn’t mean much five years out.
Starmer was an historically unpopular LOTO, he's now become an unpopular PM within his first six months of taking office and generally PMs/Governments get more unpopular as time goes on, so what do you think is going to happen over the next five years to improve SKS' and his government popularity?
Nobody knows. Politics is so volatile right now.
Sure. You can always get an exception but the trends are clear. Unpopular LOTO quickly becomes unpopular PM...
The trajectory looks clear and the most *likely* outcome of the next election would seem to be unpopular PM becomes more unpopular over time until he's eventually thrown out at the next available electoral opportunity?
I think there are two further possibilities:
1) Starmers (rather naive) plan works. Growth returns, public services are repaired, waiting lists are slashed and popularity returns so he is re#-elected.
2) Labour continue to trail in the polls, so install fresh leadership in 2028 to prepare for a 2029 GE with a fresh face. I reckon Phillipson, Rayner or Cooper.
If the economy is not great as the Democrats discovered it won't save the party in power changing the leader
Changing leaders and pretending to be a different party worked for the Tories twice in the last decade, so certainly worth a try.
Methinks Starmer is likely to simply retire.
There is the fact too that the Tories need to nearly treble their number of seats to form a majority government. That would be unprecedented in modern history, and in today's poll they went down too. It was the LDs, and SNP that went up.
No it worked once with Boris and that was to get Brexit done and win back voters lost to Farage and when the economy was rather better than now
In the unlikely event that Labour's vote collapses in four years time they've got two get out of jail cards.
1. Offer to take the UK back into the EU without a referendum. Make it a manifesto pledge
2. An orderly retirement and a new leader
3. Both
Though the governing party has so many levers and bribes available to them it's very difficult to lose such a large majority at the first attempt.
Lab leak has been the most likely source for some time. The problem is that there is no direct "smoking gun" evidence, and there may never be. So probability is the best we can do.
Er, "Leon ahead of the curve". Be fair
I was the first PBer to say This is obviously the most probable source, and I stuck to my guns throughout years of scorn
Credit also to @Gardenwalker, @MaxPB and yourself @rcs1000 for at least being open to the idea, from an early stage
Hmm I think I've been on the lab leak train about as long as you, one of my old uni friends put me onto it during a zoom catchup very early on in the pandemic. He works in anti-viral research and said to the rest of us that he would bet us all £100 each that this would turn out to be a lab leak based on the location origin and what he knew of lax Chinese biosecurity.
I'm determined to deliver growth, create wealth and put more money in people’s pockets.
This can only be achieved by working in partnership with leading businesses, like @BlackRock, to capitalise on the UK’s position as a world leading hub for investment.
Blackrock is a big thing with conspiracy nutters - who don't seem to understand they (and similar firms) hold shares on behalf of other people. They do get to use the votes though, of course.
Julie Tsirkin @news_jul · 2h At least 5 Senate Rs -- McConnell, Murkowski, Collins, Mullin & (Sen-elect) Curtis — were a "no" on Gaetz and had communicated to others that they were unlikely going to be swayed.
As many as 30 were very uncomfortable about having to vote for Gaetz.
I assume this is because of the issue with younger farmers being able to sign the farm over to their children to continue farming and hopefully live more than 7 years whereas it is not likely to be an option for older farmers.
Yes, but the 7 year rule only starts to kick in it either a) the donor fully retires from farming, ie no working for free, even for an odd day or b) they are paid full going rate for any work they continue to do on farm
If rumours on a rethink are true Clarkson may be right when he said it was a late decision on the final policy
Thats wierd. WHy should working on the farm have any affect on the 7 year rule. What matters is that the farm/house etc is fully, legally, handed over to the heir.
It's seen as a benefit in kind, you can gift a farm to your descendents, and as long as you live 7 years should avoid tax. If you continue to live in the farmhouse after gifting, would need to pay market rent for it
Lab leak has been the most likely source for some time. The problem is that there is no direct "smoking gun" evidence, and there may never be. So probability is the best we can do.
Er, "Leon ahead of the curve". Be fair
I was the first PBer to say This is obviously the most probable source, and I stuck to my guns throughout years of scorn
Credit also to @Gardenwalker, @MaxPB and yourself @rcs1000 for at least being open to the idea, from an early stage
Hmm I think I've been on the lab leak train about as long as you, one of my old uni friends put me onto it during a zoom catchup very early on in the pandemic. He works in anti-viral research and said to the rest of us that he would bet us all £100 each that this would turn out to be a lab leak based on the location origin and what he knew of lax Chinese biosecurity.
It is shocking and yet psychologically interesting, how many apparently intelligent people clung on to Wet Market, way beyond the point of Obvious Absurdity
Some did it because they are scientists, and the idea of lab leak made them feel professional shame, some did it because of Trump, and "anything he says must be wrong", and some did it because they are, simply, intellectual cowards. These last are the worst
There are other subsets of fools, one day someone should write a book analysing the entire bizarre phenomenon
The crapness of Labour at doing politics is becoming jaw-dropping.
I second that. Jim Murphy kept making the point that Labour were not getting the politics right on the Tuesday edition of Newsnight.
I thought Labour could have done with a more business orientated spokesperson on Tuesday night. It's the business side they're really struggling with right now, this is where you need MPs with experience in the sector to help
Daisy cooper speaking well on Question time, Minette Batters struggled with the initial question
One rather sad aspect of elite takeover of political parties (and this applies to the Conservatives as well as Labour) is that they end up running the country for the benefit of their peer-classes outside the UK, pumping profits out and using the locals to absorb the losses. We aren't being governed, we're being strip-mined.
Lab leak has been the most likely source for some time. The problem is that there is no direct "smoking gun" evidence, and there may never be. So probability is the best we can do.
Er, "Leon ahead of the curve". Be fair
I was the first PBer to say This is obviously the most probable source, and I stuck to my guns throughout years of scorn
Credit also to @Gardenwalker, @MaxPB and yourself @rcs1000 for at least being open to the idea, from an early stage
Hmm I think I've been on the lab leak train about as long as you, one of my old uni friends put me onto it during a zoom catchup very early on in the pandemic. He works in anti-viral research and said to the rest of us that he would bet us all £100 each that this would turn out to be a lab leak based on the location origin and what he knew of lax Chinese biosecurity.
It is shocking and yet psychologically interesting, how many apparently intelligent people clung on to Wet Market, way beyond the point of Obvious Absurdity
Some did it because they are scientists, and the idea of lab leak made them feel professional shame, some did it because of Trump, and "anything he says must be wrong", and some did it because they are, simply, intellectual cowards. These last are the worst
There are other subsets of fools, one day someone should write a book analysing the entire bizarre phenomenon
Always struck me as highly unlikely that it was a natural outbreak given there was literally a lab full of 'mad scientists' and test tubes in the very same town where it all started. Occam.
I assume this is because of the issue with younger farmers being able to sign the farm over to their children to continue farming and hopefully live more than 7 years whereas it is not likely to be an option for older farmers.
Yes, but the 7 year rule only starts to kick in it either a) the donor fully retires from farming, ie no working for free, even for an odd day or b) they are paid full going rate for any work they continue to do on farm
If rumours on a rethink are true Clarkson may be right when he said it was a late decision on the final policy
Thats wierd. WHy should working on the farm have any affect on the 7 year rule. What matters is that the farm/house etc is fully, legally, handed over to the heir.
It's seen as a benefit in kind, you can gift a farm to your descendents, and as long as you live 7 years should avoid tax. If you continue to live in the farmhouse after gifting, would need to pay market rent for it
I don't see how "working for free" as ought to do with this?
Continuing to live in the farmhouse is defo a "benefit". You can't hand a house over and just carry on living there as if nothing has happened under IHT rules.
Just another bog standard conspiracy theory that has been put forward a hundred times. No new evidence just 'It seems quite likely to me' says average ranking government scientist.
The Telegraph are becoming the new Express during their Diana mystery phase. Every day a new theory
One of the disadvantages of continually working late/weekends is that I don't have the time to watch YouTubes I like (hence the listening in background). Some nice ones have dropped in the last 48hrs.
🌳CON 28% (-1) 🌹LAB 25% (-2) ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2) 🌍 GREEN 8% (nc) 🟡 SNP 3% (+1)
That LD number will continue to rise. If only Sir Ed keeps a very low profile he could be next PM. and obviously that'll be a shock to everyone!
Labour will sink below 20 within a year
I doubt it. I think their core vote - public sector and unionised layabouts, most ethnic minorities and the welfare dependent - is just about large enough to keep them from that, unless there is some unbelievable catastrophe.
And there are new supporters, like those thugs they released from prison over the summer - some of whom promised to vote Labour iirc.
I know PB tends to default to the right in the absence of any major new developments, but some of these most recent discussions on Starmer are becoming so partisam as to segue into simple propaganda.
I'm not a member of any of the groups mentioned there , for instance, and still find Starmer to be hugely less incompetent than Truss or Johnson. I may also vote for him again.
Maybe God has given you these Autumnal afternoons and a backlit keyboard. Write something.
How’s the memoir coming along? I’m expecting plenty of flashbacks and flash forwards - a penguin snack in prison opens to a conversation with penguins in Antarctica. Maybe even an anachronistic approach - the penguin is actually doing bird too, your cell mate - Norman Stanley Penguin - talking sense into you from out in the future, whilst being an actual penguin on the bottom bunk. And if you are stirring in plenty of desire, drunkenly fumbling around, and sex, don’t forget what it actually feels like to be in love, too. Glad. On every waking. But how it makes you blind. And when, as it must, it leaves you, in its wake you are bitter and regretful each alternate minute of the day, like being cast around in a fishing junk on a stormy sea. And the Pilot calls to you “okay back there?” “Yes.” You shout back through the roar. “I know this stretch of water like the back of my hand.” “It’s about going forwards.” Says Norman. “Forwards from here. Not wallowing in Nostalgia. One day I am going to fly from this place. Actually fly.”
Thanks
I'm actually considering laying down my flints for a year and writing a WGSebaldian experimental novel called THE PALE GREEN NUCLEAR DREAM
True story
A man's reach should exceed his grasp. You have the time and money, so take it whilst you still can. You never know when things will go wrong.
One rather sad aspect of elite takeover of political parties (and this applies to the Conservatives as well as Labour) is that they end up running the country for the benefit of their peer-classes outside the UK, pumping profits out and using the locals to absorb the losses. We aren't being governed, we're being strip-mined.
In 2007 the last foot and mouth outbreak occurred, as a result of a lab leak in Surrey. The drainage pipes newrby were inspected and the disease was found to have either come from the Pirbright lab (UK government agency owned and run) or the Merial lab across the road
It was never discovered which one was the source of the original leak, both would have had Foot and Mouth disease strains inside
This is in a western country, six years after a major FMD outbreak resulted in the deaths of over 6 million head of livestock - pathetic security
What hope have we got of ever finding the truth in China? I agree, it's likely covid came from the lab
One of the disadvantages of continually working late/weekends is that I don't have the time to watch YouTubes I like (hence the listening in background). Some nice ones have dropped in the last 48hrs.
Do you ever think of posting anything constructive? Your daily nonsense about Labour belittles you. After going through your soap opera before the last election I'm surprised you don't spend at least a little time in quiet reflection
It is perfectly apparent Labour are in disarray and obviously you are not taking it well
I am content the conservative party is led by Kemi who resigned over Johnson and Pitcher, and credit Sunak and Hunt in stabilising the economy after 6 weeks of Truss's disaster achieving the highest rate of growth in the G7
Indeed if you are upset it's must be getting to you
As we're both going to have to live with them for the next four years you're really going to have to refresh your script. I only come on here to read interesting and sometimes well written posts. I guess that's what most people are here for. Yesterday we got a jem from Firestopper. Most people have only time to read a limited number. Why not try to excite by saying something surprising if 'interesting' is not available...
BigG having defended Boris, having defended Truss and having defended Sunak is enjoying giving Labour a kicking, It’s a blessed relief for him. Let him have his moment.
It doesn’t mean much five years out.
Starmer was an historically unpopular LOTO, he's now become an unpopular PM within his first six months of taking office and generally PMs/Governments get more unpopular as time goes on, so what do you think is going to happen over the next five years to improve SKS' and his government popularity?
Nobody knows. Politics is so volatile right now.
Sure. You can always get an exception but the trends are clear. Unpopular LOTO quickly becomes unpopular PM...
The trajectory looks clear and the most *likely* outcome of the next election would seem to be unpopular PM becomes more unpopular over time until he's eventually thrown out at the next available electoral opportunity?
I think there are two further possibilities:
1) Starmers (rather naive) plan works. Growth returns, public services are repaired, waiting lists are slashed and popularity returns so he is re#-elected.
2) Labour continue to trail in the polls, so install fresh leadership in 2028 to prepare for a 2029 GE with a fresh face. I reckon Phillipson, Rayner or Cooper.
If the economy is not great as the Democrats discovered it won't save the party in power changing the leader
Changing leaders and pretending to be a different party worked for the Tories twice in the last decade, so certainly worth a try.
Methinks Starmer is likely to simply retire.
There is the fact too that the Tories need to nearly treble their number of seats to form a majority government. That would be unprecedented in modern history, and in today's poll they went down too. It was the LDs, and SNP that went up.
No it worked once with Boris and that was to get Brexit done and win back voters lost to Farage and when the economy was rather better than now
In the unlikely event that Labour's vote collapses in four years time they've got two get out of jail cards.
1. Offer to take the UK back into the EU without a referendum. Make it a manifesto pledge
2. An orderly retirement and a new leader
3. Both
Though the governing party has so many levers and bribes available to them it's very difficult to lose such a large majority at the first attempt.
Yet they are running the economy so poorly and putting through so many unpopular policies on the latest polls Labour will already lose its 174 majority.
1 would of course see even more white working class Labour voters go Reform
One rather sad aspect of elite takeover of political parties (and this applies to the Conservatives as well as Labour) is that they end up running the country for the benefit of their peer-classes outside the UK, pumping profits out and using the locals to absorb the losses. We aren't being governed, we're being strip-mined.
Who are these people?
Basically everybody at Cabinet level in the Starmer, Sunak, Truss and possibly Johnson administrations. I've basically lost my faith in UK political parties. I also use the word "basically" too much
One rather sad aspect of elite takeover of political parties (and this applies to the Conservatives as well as Labour) is that they end up running the country for the benefit of their peer-classes outside the UK, pumping profits out and using the locals to absorb the losses. We aren't being governed, we're being strip-mined.
Who are these people?
Basically everybody at Cabinet level in the Starmer, Sunak, Truss and possibly Johnson administrations. I've basically lost my faith in UK political parties. I also use the word "basically" too much
This is why Reform may do well at the next election.
I assume this is because of the issue with younger farmers being able to sign the farm over to their children to continue farming and hopefully live more than 7 years whereas it is not likely to be an option for older farmers.
Yes, but the 7 year rule only starts to kick in it either a) the donor fully retires from farming, ie no working for free, even for an odd day or b) they are paid full going rate for any work they continue to do on farm
If rumours on a rethink are true Clarkson may be right when he said it was a late decision on the final policy
Thats wierd. WHy should working on the farm have any affect on the 7 year rule. What matters is that the farm/house etc is fully, legally, handed over to the heir.
It's seen as a benefit in kind, you can gift a farm to your descendents, and as long as you live 7 years should avoid tax. If you continue to live in the farmhouse after gifting, would need to pay market rent for it
I don't see how "working for free" as ought to do with this?
Continuing to live in the farmhouse is defo a "benefit". You can't hand a house over and just carry on living there as if nothing has happened under IHT rules.
Sorry, should have stated that the nature of farming means kids/family members are often not paid the going rate for their labour
Lots of older farmers are mainly in farming for lifestyle/love of the job, many die with their boots on, they don't really retire
So it's likely they would want to continue working on the holding after gifting, but wouldn't want to disadvantage the business by drawing a full wage for their work. This would conflict with any gift made under the 7 year rule
It all comes under "Reservation of Benefit rules" or some similar
Do you ever think of posting anything constructive? Your daily nonsense about Labour belittles you. After going through your soap opera before the last election I'm surprised you don't spend at least a little time in quiet reflection
It is perfectly apparent Labour are in disarray and obviously you are not taking it well
I am content the conservative party is led by Kemi who resigned over Johnson and Pitcher, and credit Sunak and Hunt in stabilising the economy after 6 weeks of Truss's disaster achieving the highest rate of growth in the G7
Indeed if you are upset it's must be getting to you
As we're both going to have to live with them for the next four years you're really going to have to refresh your script. I only come on here to read interesting and sometimes well written posts. I guess that's what most people are here for. Yesterday we got a jem from Firestopper. Most people have only time to read a limited number. Why not try to excite by saying something surprising if 'interesting' is not available...
BigG having defended Boris, having defended Truss and having defended Sunak is enjoying giving Labour a kicking, It’s a blessed relief for him. Let him have his moment.
It doesn’t mean much five years out.
Starmer was an historically unpopular LOTO, he's now become an unpopular PM within his first six months of taking office and generally PMs/Governments get more unpopular as time goes on, so what do you think is going to happen over the next five years to improve SKS' and his government popularity?
Nobody knows. Politics is so volatile right now.
Sure. You can always get an exception but the trends are clear. Unpopular LOTO quickly becomes unpopular PM...
The trajectory looks clear and the most *likely* outcome of the next election would seem to be unpopular PM becomes more unpopular over time until he's eventually thrown out at the next available electoral opportunity?
I think there are two further possibilities:
1) Starmers (rather naive) plan works. Growth returns, public services are repaired, waiting lists are slashed and popularity returns so he is re#-elected.
2) Labour continue to trail in the polls, so install fresh leadership in 2028 to prepare for a 2029 GE with a fresh face. I reckon Phillipson, Rayner or Cooper.
If the economy is not great as the Democrats discovered it won't save the party in power changing the leader
Changing leaders and pretending to be a different party worked for the Tories twice in the last decade, so certainly worth a try.
Methinks Starmer is likely to simply retire.
There is the fact too that the Tories need to nearly treble their number of seats to form a majority government. That would be unprecedented in modern history, and in today's poll they went down too. It was the LDs, and SNP that went up.
No it worked once with Boris and that was to get Brexit done and win back voters lost to Farage and when the economy was rather better than now
In the unlikely event that Labour's vote collapses in four years time they've got two get out of jail cards.
1. Offer to take the UK back into the EU without a referendum. Make it a manifesto pledge
2. An orderly retirement and a new leader
3. Both
Though the governing party has so many levers and bribes available to them it's very difficult to lose such a large majority at the first attempt.
'John Prescott on Ed Miliband, Disraeli and 'one-nation'
02:03 John Prescott on Ed Miliband, Disraeli and 'one-nation' Close Lord Prescott claimed not to know who Disraeli was and said he preferred the title "one Labour" or "just Labour" when asked about the one-nation phrase.
Ed Miliband name-checked the former Conservative prime minister and referred to "one-nation" more than 40 times when he addressed the Labour Party conference in Manchester.
The former deputy prime minister said the leader gave a "brilliant speech" and had to stay in modern times, while describing himself as "the old man in this".
One of the disadvantages of continually working late/weekends is that I don't have the time to watch YouTubes I like (hence the listening in background). Some nice ones have dropped in the last 48hrs.
Thanks viewcode. I'll try to get round to watching these.
They are wildly disparate in politics, and there's no underlying theme other than that they have easy-listening voices explaining things in a reasonable way that enables me to understand, or pretend to understand, the subject. The kind of thing it is good to have on in the background whilst I work.
The crapness of Labour at doing politics is becoming jaw-dropping.
I second that. Jim Murphy kept making the point that Labour were not getting the politics right on the Tuesday edition of Newsnight.
I thought Labour could have done with a more business orientated spokesperson on Tuesday night. It's the business side they're really struggling with right now, this is where you need MPs with experience in the sector to help
Daisy cooper speaking well on Question time, Minette Batters struggled with the initial question
While this Labour Government's political messaging has been absolutely dire, their bigger and far more damaging problem longer term now is the loss of public trust in such a short time in Office even if they do manage to turn the comms operation around in No10 & No11 Downing Street. What were they doing for the last two years because it certainly was not doing the proper planning and preparation when it came to their policy grid and messaging?
What ever your opinion of the farmers protest this week, the very clear underlying message was yet again that this Labour Government had lied to them before the GE, its now becoming a constant theme in their first few months in Office. Starmer's poor performance as PM has been no surprise, all the clues were there even before he became Labour leader, the whole Government operation comes across as being completely rudderless under him.
The crapness of Labour at doing politics is becoming jaw-dropping.
I second that. Jim Murphy kept making the point that Labour were not getting the politics right on the Tuesday edition of Newsnight.
I thought Labour could have done with a more business orientated spokesperson on Tuesday night. It's the business side they're really struggling with right now, this is where you need MPs with experience in the sector to help
Daisy cooper speaking well on Question time, Minette Batters struggled with the initial question
While this Labour Government's political messaging has been absolutely dire, their bigger and far more damaging problem longer term now is the loss of public trust in such a short time in Office even if they do manage to turn the comms operation around in No10 & No11 Downing Street. What were they doing for the last two years because it certainly was not doing the proper planning and preparation when it came to their policy grid and messaging?
What ever your opinion of the farmers protest this week, the very clear underlying message was yet again that this Labour Government had lied to them before the GE, its now becoming a constant theme in their first few months in Office. Starmer's poor performance as PM has been no surprise, all the clues were there even before he became Labour leader, the whole Government operation comes across as being completely rudderless under him.
Again, if we compare with Johnson or Truss, though, Tory member-voted leaders, he looks like a cross between Einstein and Roosevelt.
The crapness of Labour at doing politics is becoming jaw-dropping.
I second that. Jim Murphy kept making the point that Labour were not getting the politics right on the Tuesday edition of Newsnight.
I thought Labour could have done with a more business orientated spokesperson on Tuesday night. It's the business side they're really struggling with right now, this is where you need MPs with experience in the sector to help
Daisy cooper speaking well on Question time, Minette Batters struggled with the initial question
While this Labour Government's political messaging has been absolutely dire, their bigger and far more damaging problem longer term now is the loss of public trust in such a short time in Office even if they do manage to turn the comms operation around in No10 & No11 Downing Street. What were they doing for the last two years because it certainly was not doing the proper planning and preparation when it came to their policy grid and messaging?
What ever your opinion of the farmers protest this week, the very clear underlying message was yet again that this Labour Government had lied to them before the GE, its now becoming a constant theme in their first few months in Office. Starmer's poor performance as PM has been no surprise, all the clues were there even before he became Labour leader, the whole Government operation comes across as being completely rudderless under him.
Again, if we compare with Johnson or Truss, though, Tory member-voted leaders, he looks like a cross between Einstein and Roosevelt.
I assume this is because of the issue with younger farmers being able to sign the farm over to their children to continue farming and hopefully live more than 7 years whereas it is not likely to be an option for older farmers.
Yes, but the 7 year rule only starts to kick in it either a) the donor fully retires from farming, ie no working for free, even for an odd day or b) they are paid full going rate for any work they continue to do on farm
If rumours on a rethink are true Clarkson may be right when he said it was a late decision on the final policy
Thats wierd. WHy should working on the farm have any affect on the 7 year rule. What matters is that the farm/house etc is fully, legally, handed over to the heir.
It's seen as a benefit in kind, you can gift a farm to your descendents, and as long as you live 7 years should avoid tax. If you continue to live in the farmhouse after gifting, would need to pay market rent for it
I don't see how "working for free" as ought to do with this?
Continuing to live in the farmhouse is defo a "benefit". You can't hand a house over and just carry on living there as if nothing has happened under IHT rules.
Sorry, should have stated that the nature of farming means kids/family members are often not paid the going rate for their labour
Lots of older farmers are mainly in farming for lifestyle/love of the job, many die with their boots on, they don't really retire
So it's likely they would want to continue working on the holding after gifting, but wouldn't want to disadvantage the business by drawing a full wage for their work. This would conflict with any gift made under the 7 year rule
It all comes under "Reservation of Benefit rules" or some similar
You hit the nail on the head there. I live in a very rural area, and all the nearest farms to me have been family run for generations. One of them only provides a living for the son that took over when his Dad retired, but his Dad still helps out on a daily basis as does his siblings at the busiest times of the year despite them all having full time jobs elsewhere.
The crapness of Labour at doing politics is becoming jaw-dropping.
I second that. Jim Murphy kept making the point that Labour were not getting the politics right on the Tuesday edition of Newsnight.
I thought Labour could have done with a more business orientated spokesperson on Tuesday night. It's the business side they're really struggling with right now, this is where you need MPs with experience in the sector to help
Daisy cooper speaking well on Question time, Minette Batters struggled with the initial question
While this Labour Government's political messaging has been absolutely dire, their bigger and far more damaging problem longer term now is the loss of public trust in such a short time in Office even if they do manage to turn the comms operation around in No10 & No11 Downing Street. What were they doing for the last two years because it certainly was not doing the proper planning and preparation when it came to their policy grid and messaging?
What ever your opinion of the farmers protest this week, the very clear underlying message was yet again that this Labour Government had lied to them before the GE, its now becoming a constant theme in their first few months in Office. Starmer's poor performance as PM has been no surprise, all the clues were there even before he became Labour leader, the whole Government operation comes across as being completely rudderless under him.
Again, if we compare with Johnson or Truss, though, Tory member-voted leaders, he looks like a cross between Einstein and Roosevelt.
It's still early days for him.
It also appears to be the last days for him.
I can't see thar he's under any immediate threat from within his party, and still has both a huge majority,and five years to go.
I'm more worried, personally, about the Russia-Ukraine war, at the moment.
I assume this is because of the issue with younger farmers being able to sign the farm over to their children to continue farming and hopefully live more than 7 years whereas it is not likely to be an option for older farmers.
Yes, but the 7 year rule only starts to kick in it either a) the donor fully retires from farming, ie no working for free, even for an odd day or b) they are paid full going rate for any work they continue to do on farm
If rumours on a rethink are true Clarkson may be right when he said it was a late decision on the final policy
Thats wierd. WHy should working on the farm have any affect on the 7 year rule. What matters is that the farm/house etc is fully, legally, handed over to the heir.
It's seen as a benefit in kind, you can gift a farm to your descendents, and as long as you live 7 years should avoid tax. If you continue to live in the farmhouse after gifting, would need to pay market rent for it
I don't see how "working for free" as ought to do with this?
Continuing to live in the farmhouse is defo a "benefit". You can't hand a house over and just carry on living there as if nothing has happened under IHT rules.
Sorry, should have stated that the nature of farming means kids/family members are often not paid the going rate for their labour
Lots of older farmers are mainly in farming for lifestyle/love of the job, many die with their boots on, they don't really retire
So it's likely they would want to continue working on the holding after gifting, but wouldn't want to disadvantage the business by drawing a full wage for their work. This would conflict with any gift made under the 7 year rule
It all comes under "Reservation of Benefit rules" or some similar
You hit the nail on the head there. I live in a very rural area, and all the nearest farms to me have been family run for generations. One of them only provides a living for the son that took over when his Dad retired, but his Dad still helps out on a daily basis as does his siblings at the busiest times of the year despite them all having full time jobs elsewhere.
I still don't understand the point about benefit reservation.
Sure - you can no longer live in the farmhouse. Unless a rental agreement is made.
But I don't see why you can't help out or do a few hours paid time with the cows each week? Nothing to do with IHT
Just another bog standard conspiracy theory that has been put forward a hundred times. No new evidence just 'It seems quite likely to me' says average ranking government scientist.
The Telegraph are becoming the new Express during their Diana mystery phase. Every day a new theory
“average ranking government scientist”
He’s Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at Kings College London.
I assume this is because of the issue with younger farmers being able to sign the farm over to their children to continue farming and hopefully live more than 7 years whereas it is not likely to be an option for older farmers.
Yes, but the 7 year rule only starts to kick in it either a) the donor fully retires from farming, ie no working for free, even for an odd day or b) they are paid full going rate for any work they continue to do on farm
If rumours on a rethink are true Clarkson may be right when he said it was a late decision on the final policy
Thats wierd. WHy should working on the farm have any affect on the 7 year rule. What matters is that the farm/house etc is fully, legally, handed over to the heir.
It's seen as a benefit in kind, you can gift a farm to your descendents, and as long as you live 7 years should avoid tax. If you continue to live in the farmhouse after gifting, would need to pay market rent for it
I don't see how "working for free" as ought to do with this?
Continuing to live in the farmhouse is defo a "benefit". You can't hand a house over and just carry on living there as if nothing has happened under IHT rules.
Sorry, should have stated that the nature of farming means kids/family members are often not paid the going rate for their labour
Lots of older farmers are mainly in farming for lifestyle/love of the job, many die with their boots on, they don't really retire
So it's likely they would want to continue working on the holding after gifting, but wouldn't want to disadvantage the business by drawing a full wage for their work. This would conflict with any gift made under the 7 year rule
It all comes under "Reservation of Benefit rules" or some similar
You hit the nail on the head there. I live in a very rural area, and all the nearest farms to me have been family run for generations. One of them only provides a living for the son that took over when his Dad retired, but his Dad still helps out on a daily basis as does his siblings at the busiest times of the year despite them all having full time jobs elsewhere.
I still don't understand the point about benefit reservation.
Sure - you can no longer live in the farmhouse. Unless a rental agreement is made.
But I don't see why you can't help out or do a few hours paid time with the cows each week? Nothing to do with IHT
Apologies, still trying to get my head round everything, it's a bit confusing as the new £1 million limit covers both APR and Business relief
I think it's mainly going to be an issue if the parent/donor wants to continue living in farm property or a cottage that they have gifted. You could stay in farmhouse and pay rent, but say you were to keep working then you may have to be careful not to be seen to still run the farm business if you had gifted that too
Essentially you can't be seen to be getting the benefit of something you've gifted, ie. Not continuing to stay in the farmhouse for free, and also can't be seen to still be running the business regardless of where you live, ie. The stock, feed etc, being part of the business would need to be proved to be under the new owners control
One of the disadvantages of continually working late/weekends is that I don't have the time to watch YouTubes I like (hence the listening in background). Some nice ones have dropped in the last 48hrs.
Thanks viewcode. I'll try to get round to watching these.
OK, the "PragerU indoctrinate kids by whitewashing Frederick Douglass" one is a discussion piece not scripted, and isn't very good. His scripted stuff is must better.
Just another bog standard conspiracy theory that has been put forward a hundred times. No new evidence just 'It seems quite likely to me' says average ranking government scientist.
The Telegraph are becoming the new Express during their Diana mystery phase. Every day a new theory
“average ranking government scientist”
He’s Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at Kings College London.
I think the people in this country have had enough of experts.
That's a cogent assessment, chaos and incompetence are the best chance of Trump being mitigated, someone who can competently carry out his desired policies will be dangerous.
Maybe God has given you these Autumnal afternoons and a backlit keyboard. Write something.
How’s the memoir coming along? I’m expecting plenty of flashbacks and flash forwards - a penguin snack in prison opens to a conversation with penguins in Antarctica. Maybe even an anachronistic approach - the penguin is actually doing bird too, your cell mate - Norman Stanley Penguin - talking sense into you from out in the future, whilst being an actual penguin on the bottom bunk. And if you are stirring in plenty of desire, drunkenly fumbling around, and sex, don’t forget what it actually feels like to be in love, too. Glad. On every waking. But how it makes you blind. And when, as it must, it leaves you, in its wake you are bitter and regretful each alternate minute of the day, like being cast around in a fishing junk on a stormy sea. And the Pilot calls to you “okay back there?” “Yes.” You shout back through the roar. “I know this stretch of water like the back of my hand.” “It’s about going forwards.” Says Norman. “Forwards from here. Not wallowing in Nostalgia. One day I am going to fly from this place. Actually fly.”
Thanks
I'm actually considering laying down my flints for a year and writing a WGSebaldian experimental novel called THE PALE GREEN NUCLEAR DREAM
True story
Wow. Yes that’s just the thing - recollection and fiction and all this decay. Told just as you believe it, without recourse to any compromise.
“Fucking Fly.” Said Norman. “Like the God’s fly. Right up to the very top of the world.” With his outstretched wings, he flapped the newspaper in half, page 2 falling over page 3 he had drawn over. “And from there.” He paused, and smiled. “Rain down on them all.”
Lab leak has been the most likely source for some time. The problem is that there is no direct "smoking gun" evidence, and there may never be. So probability is the best we can do.
Er, "Leon ahead of the curve". Be fair
I was the first PBer to say This is obviously the most probable source, and I stuck to my guns throughout years of scorn
Credit also to @Gardenwalker, @MaxPB and yourself @rcs1000 for at least being open to the idea, from an early stage
Hmm I think I've been on the lab leak train about as long as you, one of my old uni friends put me onto it during a zoom catchup very early on in the pandemic. He works in anti-viral research and said to the rest of us that he would bet us all £100 each that this would turn out to be a lab leak based on the location origin and what he knew of lax Chinese biosecurity.
It is shocking and yet psychologically interesting, how many apparently intelligent people clung on to Wet Market, way beyond the point of Obvious Absurdity
Some did it because they are scientists, and the idea of lab leak made them feel professional shame, some did it because of Trump, and "anything he says must be wrong", and some did it because they are, simply, intellectual cowards. These last are the worst
There are other subsets of fools, one day someone should write a book analysing the entire bizarre phenomenon
🌳CON 28% (-1) 🌹LAB 25% (-2) ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2) 🌍 GREEN 8% (nc) 🟡 SNP 3% (+1)
Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.
Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
Cameron never polled as unfavourably as Starmer is now
Starmer comes across v badly on television .. not as bad as Brown but not far off....
I think SKS may be WORSE than Brown, because he has all of his bad attributes and very few of his good attributes.
For all Browns faults (and there were many) he was an intellectual, he was the "brains" behind New Labour, he knew what he wanted to achieve as CotE if not as PM. He was generally an exceptionally formidable politician and no doubt one of the giant political figures of later 20th Century British politics.
If he'd been willing to acknowledge his "flaws" and let Tony carry on being the "front man" while he was the "brains" , New Labour could have had 20 years in power and Brexit would probably never have happened.
But getting back to SKS, sadly none of the above positive attributes apply, yet he is waylaid by most of Browns negative character traits.
I think the PM Starmer most likely resembles is probably the appalling Edward Heath? And possibly Theresa May?
I think Iraq had already done for Blair by then - I doubt he would have won the 2010 election.
It's interesting to ponder isn't it? Blair/Brown Vs Cameron/Osborne in 2010?
2010 Blair/Brown with a small majority, Blair wouldn't have faced the same vitriol from the media that Brown did.
Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:
Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.
If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.
It is hard to take seriously a platform that cannot even get its name in the URL.
Got a spare few million because that is what the .com version of your desired name will cost you nowadays.
Also it's not exactly as relevant when most consumption is via the phone app...
Bluesky is at bsky.app – not bluesky.app. And even if the latter was already taken, they could have called it something else whose domain name was available.
🌳CON 28% (-1) 🌹LAB 25% (-2) ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2) 🌍 GREEN 8% (nc) 🟡 SNP 3% (+1)
Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.
Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
Cameron never polled as unfavourably as Starmer is now
Starmer comes across v badly on television .. not as bad as Brown but not far off....
I think SKS may be WORSE than Brown, because he has all of his bad attributes and very few of his good attributes.
For all Browns faults (and there were many) he was an intellectual, he was the "brains" behind New Labour, he knew what he wanted to achieve as CotE if not as PM. He was generally an exceptionally formidable politician and no doubt one of the giant political figures of later 20th Century British politics.
If he'd been willing to acknowledge his "flaws" and let Tony carry on being the "front man" while he was the "brains" , New Labour could have had 20 years in power and Brexit would probably never have happened.
But getting back to SKS, sadly none of the above positive attributes apply, yet he is waylaid by most of Browns negative character traits.
I think the PM Starmer most likely resembles is probably the appalling Edward Heath? And possibly Theresa May?
I think Iraq had already done for Blair by then - I doubt he would have won the 2010 election.
If Iraq didn't get him, the 2008 crash probably would have. Remember John Burn-Murdoch's chart of swings against governments? 2008-11ish weren't pretty either.
1. It's always the economy, stupid. 2. Governments ride the economy much more than they control it. They may not think so, but they do.
Ha, so Gaetz stands aside because he doesn’t want to be ‘a distraction’, and the next pick is a former State AG who is going to be ‘terrifyingly competent’ according to Trump’s opponents.
I suspect the Trump campaign are well prepared when it comes to backup choices for the more controversial appointments.
Just another bog standard conspiracy theory that has been put forward a hundred times. No new evidence just 'It seems quite likely to me' says average ranking government scientist.
The Telegraph are becoming the new Express during their Diana mystery phase. Every day a new theory
“average ranking government scientist”
He’s Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at Kings College London.
I think the people in this country have had enough of experts.
That didn't go so well, if you were a Tory in Surrey Heath did it? Gove stood down, but he would have lost all the same, if he had stood. Hubris before nemesis.
I know Starship gets all the attention, but Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket has just gone vertical fully-stacked for the first time. And it looks beautiful:
Mr. Sandpit, cunningly, you spotted my entirely deliberately and not at all sleepy mistake. I'll try and remember to put up the pre-qualifying tosh today.
Comments
1. It's always the economy, stupid.
2. Governments ride the economy much more than they control it. They may not think so, but they do.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/21/prof-tim-spector-covid-likely-to-have-come-from-a-lab-leak/
Drops link and runs away ...
Putting those numbers into Baxter and you get Conservative 217, Reform 158, Labour 105 and Liberal Democrat 85 with SNP on 42.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/11/20/anthony-albanese-shows-the-disaster-in-store-for-starmer/
Spent 2 hours wandering around the Munch Museum wondering where on earth the most famous painting was, because there weren't any notices about it.
Turns out the website says:
"The Scream will be temporarily unavailable at the end of November 2024
We’re making some improvements to our exhibition Infinite, which means some of our versions of The Scream unfortunately won’t be on view between 18.11 and 29.11.24"
https://www.munchmuseet.no/en/exhibitions/edvard-munch-infinite/the-scream-will-be-temporarily-unavailable-at-the-end-of-november-2024
And there are new supporters, like those thugs they released from prison over the summer - some of whom promised to vote Labour iirc.
Lab leak has been the most likely source for some time. The problem is that there is no direct "smoking gun" evidence, and there may never be. So probability is the best we can do.
I'm actually considering laying down my flints for a year and writing a WGSebaldian experimental novel called THE PALE GREEN NUCLEAR DREAM
True story
If rumours on a rethink are true Clarkson may be right when he said it was a late decision on the final policy
Is this some kind of joke?
Not one single respectable virologist who worked on making dangerously pathogenic coronaviruses at the Wuhan laboratory for making dangerously pathogenic coronaviruses believes the virus which emerged in Wuhan which then killed 25 million people came from their lab in Wuhan. That's the consensus of ALL the involved scientists making the dangerous virus. Ask @bondegezou
I was the first PBer to say This is obviously the most probable source, and I stuck to my guns throughout years of scorn
Credit also to @Gardenwalker, @MaxPB and yourself @rcs1000 for at least being open to the idea, from an early stage
Eight days after making the snap decision to nominate Matt Gaetz to be the nation’s next attorney general, Trump phoned him Thursday morning to tell him he wouldn’t get confirmed, according to a source briefed on the conversation. The president-elect explained that Republican senators were too troubled by the sex scandals and investigations surrounding Gaetz and that the constant and salacious distractions had doomed him.
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/you-dont-have-votes-trump-matt-gaetz-attorney-general
Repeat.
"The government remains committed to restoring ODA spending to 0.7% of GNI as soon as the fiscal circumstances allow. The OBR’s latest forecast shows that the ODA fiscal tests are not due to be met within the Parliament. The government will continue to monitor future forecasts closely, and each year will review and confirm, in accordance with the International Development (Official Development Assistance Target) Act 2015, whether a return to spending 0.7% of GNI on ODA is possible against the latest fiscal forecast. The UK will remain one of the most generous donors amongst the G7, and our ODA offer will continue to grow in line with GNI."
Go find the comment where I said that: spoiler, you will not find it
I said it was near-certainly accidental all along, with a tiny chance of some deliberate release. And I explained why, too - because the only way you would release it deliberately is if you had a vax ready to go. They did not
I agree with Sean Thomas the thriller writer who explained the entire logic of this in 2021
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-id-write-covid-the-thriller/
Looks like he wrote that when you were still wanking on about pangolins
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq8v55eqd73o
https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1859682871876911310
I'm determined to deliver growth, create wealth and put more money in people’s pockets.
This can only be achieved by working in partnership with leading businesses, like @BlackRock, to capitalise on the UK’s position as a world leading hub for investment.
1. Offer to take the UK back into the EU without a referendum. Make it a manifesto pledge
2. An orderly retirement and a new leader
3. Both
Though the governing party has so many levers and bribes available to them it's very difficult to lose such a large majority at the first attempt.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzwG_b9KFo8
Julie Tsirkin
@news_jul
·
2h
At least 5 Senate Rs -- McConnell, Murkowski, Collins, Mullin & (Sen-elect) Curtis — were a "no" on Gaetz and had communicated to others that they were unlikely going to be swayed.
As many as 30 were very uncomfortable about having to vote for Gaetz.
Some did it because they are scientists, and the idea of lab leak made them feel professional shame, some did it because of Trump, and "anything he says must be wrong", and some did it because they are, simply, intellectual cowards. These last are the worst
There are other subsets of fools, one day someone should write a book analysing the entire bizarre phenomenon
Daisy cooper speaking well on Question time, Minette Batters struggled with the initial question
But. What matter now?
Continuing to live in the farmhouse is defo a "benefit". You can't hand a house over and just carry on living there as if nothing has happened under IHT rules.
The Telegraph are becoming the new Express during their Diana mystery phase. Every day a new theory
I'm not a member of any of the groups mentioned there , for instance, and still find Starmer to be hugely less
incompetent than Truss or Johnson. I may also vote for him again.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1859593835535331439
In 2007 the last foot and mouth outbreak occurred, as a result of a lab leak in Surrey. The drainage pipes newrby were inspected and the disease was found to have either come from the Pirbright lab (UK government agency owned and run) or the Merial lab across the road
It was never discovered which one was the source of the original leak, both would have had Foot and Mouth disease strains inside
This is in a western country, six years after a major FMD outbreak resulted in the deaths of over 6 million head of livestock - pathetic security
What hope have we got of ever finding the truth in China? I agree, it's likely covid came from the lab
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_United_Kingdom_foot-and-mouth_outbreak
1 would of course see even more white working class Labour voters go Reform
Lots of older farmers are mainly in farming for lifestyle/love of the job, many die with their boots on, they don't really retire
So it's likely they would want to continue working on the holding after gifting, but wouldn't want to disadvantage the business by drawing a full wage for their work. This would conflict with any gift made under the 7 year rule
It all comes under "Reservation of Benefit rules" or some similar
02:03
John Prescott on Ed Miliband, Disraeli and 'one-nation'
Close
Lord Prescott claimed not to know who Disraeli was and said he preferred the title "one Labour" or "just Labour" when asked about the one-nation phrase.
Ed Miliband name-checked the former Conservative prime minister and referred to "one-nation" more than 40 times when he addressed the Labour Party conference in Manchester.
The former deputy prime minister said the leader gave a "brilliant speech" and had to stay in modern times, while describing himself as "the old man in this".
He told Andrew Neil: "You know I am not an intellectual, I have proved that over the years haven't I? Who the hell is Disraeli?"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-19817520
What ever your opinion of the farmers protest this week, the very clear underlying message was yet again that this Labour Government had lied to them before the GE, its now becoming a constant theme in their first few months in Office. Starmer's poor performance as PM has been no surprise, all the clues were there even before he became Labour leader, the whole Government operation comes across as being completely rudderless under him.
It's still early days for him.
I'm more worried, personally, about the Russia-Ukraine war, at the moment.
Sure - you can no longer live in the farmhouse. Unless a rental agreement is made.
But I don't see why you can't help out or do a few hours paid time with the cows each week? Nothing to do with IHT
A poor one I grant you.
https://x.com/collinrugg/status/1859747796661739802
He’s Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at Kings College London.
I think it's mainly going to be an issue if the parent/donor wants to continue living in farm property or a cottage that they have gifted. You could stay in farmhouse and pay rent, but say you were to keep working then you may have to be careful not to be seen to still run the farm business if you had gifted that too
A couple of links below may explain some details:
https://www.nfus.org.uk/news/blog/budget-implications--what-you-need-to-know
https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/inheritance-tax-manual/ihtm04064
Essentially you can't be seen to be getting the benefit of something you've gifted, ie. Not continuing to stay in the farmhouse for free, and also can't be seen to still be running the business regardless of where you live, ie. The stock, feed etc, being part of the business would need to be proved to be under the new owners control
“Fucking Fly.” Said Norman. “Like the God’s fly. Right up to the very top of the world.” With his outstretched wings, he flapped the newspaper in half, page 2 falling over page 3 he had drawn over. “And from there.” He paused, and smiled. “Rain down on them all.”
I suspect the Trump campaign are well prepared when it comes to backup choices for the more controversial appointments.
https://x.com/blueorigin/status/1859784773100503412
(Still a way away from launch; they have to do the first stage test firing.)
F1: I believe third practice is about to start.