Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The Conservatives are the 1/10 favourites to win the next general election – politicalbetting.com

1235789

Comments

  • Talking of the weather - it's been a very dry November so far, hasn't it? In Sidmouth we have had 0.8 mm.
  • IanB2 said:

    PB musical interlude: enrich your lives for twenty minutes.

    A fantastically attractive piano player, too; only two very minor missed notes in the whole, increadibly challenging, piece. Don't miss the finale.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yA5QlaFywOA

    Is one "allowed" to miss notes at that level of playing?
  • AnneJGP said:

    I like the early months of the year, just because there are a lot of months to come, with lots of possibilities. In November and December I get the feeling of time running out - running out for the year that is. There's not much time left for things - anything - to happen before the end of the year.
    In politics, especially geopolitics, that is just as bloody well.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    edited November 2024

    Is one "allowed" to miss notes at that level of playing?
    If you didn't know the piece backwards, it wouldn't even be noticed.

    Besides, she needs a haircut to see what she is doing.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,680
    edited November 2024
    Andy_JS said:

    The line will be much improved within about 12 months when they install the new hi-tech carriages. The current ones date from 1975.

    https://tfl.gov.uk/travel-information/improvements-and-projects/piccadilly-line-upgrade
    My mainline East-Midlands are currently talking about new carriages. It's the classic Rail Network "What can we do to help? Ooops it's too late !" routine. As seen recently for accessible buses nearly everywhere.

    But the buggers are proposing the types they have on I think a couple of lines down South where there are only two bike spaces, and you have to hang it from a hook 1.6m up on the wall.

    Nightmare for disabled / more elderly / adapted cycle / smaller people, partly because they can't use the facility, and then because the disabled spaces will be full of cycles there is nowhere to place, and the limitations will mean that it may be the end of bookable spaces.

    And once it's in, we're stuck with it for another 30 years.

    As you may have read in the recent Pedals' newsletter, East Midlands Railway (EMR) are introducing new trains, initially for 'Intercity' (i.e. the London St. Pancras run) but later for the 'Regional Fleet'.

    The new class 810 Hitachi AT300 Intercity 5 carriage train, currently in test and due to begin introduction in 2025, has only TWO spaces for cycles, using hooks for vertical storage.

    For greater detail on these points, please see below, the reply to Pedals' first email to EMR and our response, saying why they should change their plans.

    EMR's second reply failed to engage with our points, saying as the trains are now being tested it is too late to change the design. They should change this detail now as they would a technical error found during test that affected operation. Delaying correction will increase the financial cost to the business (potentially the tax payer after the planned re-nationalisation), ignoring the broader societal costs which, of course, are more compelling in themselves.

    Once the new trains are in service with this short-termist limitation, the life-span could be decades. The current '222' Meridian trains came into service in 2004!


    Nightmare ! It's not as if this stuff is difficult. If anyone wants to weigh in, you can PM me.

    (Pedals is the Nottingham Cycling Group.)

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,317

    btw @Alanbrooke I did a brief Substack on your namesake in the 'Great British Bureaucracies' series https://open.substack.com/pub/sfhwebb/p/best-british-bureaucracies-ii-alanbrooke?r=1cycu5&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

    That's really rather good, sir. It would easily sit in the New European, The Spectator or the The New Statesman. Have you found a way to get paid for it?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,338

    How do we stop utterly mediocre posh boys like Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees Mogg and countless others sliding into their usual positions of power on the back of who their parents are and who they met when they went to school?

    The conveyor belt that takes people who would not get close to where they do if talent and ability were the deciding factors from school through university to positions of significant influence and responsibility has done far more damage to this country over a far longer period than the odd DEI programme.

    The abuses and miscarriages of justice always start with those we don’t like.

    For example, the “fitting up” culture always starts with the obviously guilty, habitual criminals.

    In the US, for exanple, a prosecutor was disbarred for massively abusing justice in a case involving some posh kids at a posh university. People you’d love to hate. A journalist realised it was unlikely to be the first time for that prosecutor. And guess who were the most common customers? Yup, the prosecutor had a long track record of railroading poor, black men.

    Trump has some big plans for Jack Smith. Although perhaps the fact that Trump is a right winger makes that justifiable. It's not like Smith had any evidence with which to prosecute Trump.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,788

    In which case:

    1 How much of Harris's loss of votes does this account for?

    2 What drove it? Gaza, social conservatism, woke, girl cooties?

    3 To the extent that it helped Trump win, it wasn't very clever, was it?
    See also…

    This honestly makes me think there's a market for a new type of Dem that's just nakedly in favor of econ growth, building, law and order, the military, etc - all the boring cringe median voter stuff - and who makes it their brand to tell nonprofits and foundations to go suck it.
    https://x.com/ryan_metheny/status/1857498707773587957

    "Kamala Harris but she wasn't Joe Biden's Vice President" seems like a really strong candidate
    https://x.com/MC_of_A/status/1857824071876006392

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    Is there any statutory basis to non-crime hate incidents?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,824
    edited November 2024
    Cyclefree said:

    It's a bit quiet and stodgy frankly. As far as women are concerned, it seems to have the same faults that old Twitter had. A number of well regarded practising lawyers, academics and others who have scarcely issued any messages have been labelled as "intolerant" simply because they have different views to those of the owners. Repeating old Twitter's faults is not the way to go IMO.

    X has become harder to use and there is a lot of rubbish on it. But if you make the effort you can still find good interesting stuff on it. It's just that it takes more effort. For those interested in the classical word and photography there are some very good sources.

    For news stuff a good rule of thumb is to verify elsewhere and do some checking because a lot is not at all reliable. But that applies to Bluesky as well. A lot of the messages on Amsterdam were unreliable. As is @kinabalu above. There have been continuing planned attacks on Jews in Amsterdam long after Israeli football fans went home, which suggests that the idea that this was all justified reaction to provocation to be .... well .... somewhat less than the whole truth. Bluntly, we are in danger of turning a blind eye to the increase in Jew-hatred in the last year and the effect it is having on Jews in this country. From my personal knowledge, many feel very worried and scared and, above all, alone in a way that it is hard for the rest of us to understand.
    Hang on. I said there was vile behaviour from Israeli hooligans. Which there was. I didn't say the attacks in response (or not in response) were justified. That's not my view at all. I was just responding to someone claiming habitually skewed (anti Israeli) media coverage and giving a counter example.

    Do you consider yourself to be 'reliable' on this topic btw? Because I'm not sure you are.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,680
    edited November 2024
    rcs1000 said:

    Is that like pornhub, but for people with a specific fetish?
    More or less. But not so much as Grand Designs, and we don't need our models to be completely divorced from reality.

    (Speaking as a moderator on Buildhub.)
  • "24% of US people with only high school level education say they have no close friends, compared to 10% of those with college degree"

    David Brooks (Atlantic) talking to Bulwark podcast.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Maybe she doesn't know what her pronouns are?
    My pronouns are He, her, theirs :lol:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,788
    Leon said:

    The Free Speech Union on "non hate crime incidents"

    "In response to freedom of information requests, police forces across Britain have revealed that 'non-crime hate incidents' (NCHIs) are being logged against people in authority doing their jobs. Examples include:

    ❌ An NCHI recorded against a doctor in West Yorkshire after a patient alleged they were misdiagnosed "because they were bisexual".

    ❌ A journalist's article about his interview with a "deaf and dumb" scooterist being reported to the police as a hate incident.

    ❌ A social worker was also reported to the police in Lancashire over claims she had abused her position and racially discriminated against the victim by preventing her from seeing her children.

    https://freespeechunion.org/doctors-and-vicars-accused-of-non-crime-hate-incidents/

    In 2014, the College of Policing — a taxpayer-funded quango — came up with the concept of the NCHI in its 'Hate Crime Operational Guidance'. As defined in this document, an NCHI is any incident perceived by the victim or any bystanders to be motivated by hostility or prejudice to the victim based on a 'protected' characteristic (race or perceived race, religion or perceived religion, and so on).

    For the avoidance of doubt, non-crime hate incidents really are as Orwellian as they sound. They aren't anonymised, and sit forever against the names of the alleged perpetrators without any real investigation or right of appeal. In addition, if one is recorded against your name it can show up on an enhanced criminal records check and prevent you from getting a job.

    That's right, you might not get a job because someone 'perceives' you've committed a 'non-crime'.

    Here's a short 🧵detailing some of the most egregious of the 250,000+ NCHIs we estimate the police in England and Wales have logged since 2014..."

    THIS IS NOT TRIVIAL

    In fact it's fucking sinister and Orwellian and we need rid of this shit

    https://x.com/SpeechUnion/status/1857803685100744883

    That’s not quite accurate, is it ?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_of_Policing#Non-crime_hate_incidents
    … In December 2021, the Court of Appeal ruled that this guidance was unlawful and constituted a "chilling effect ... on the legitimate exercise of freedom of expression".[11] As a result, the guidance now states that freedom of speech should be prioritised where possible and that non-crime hate incidents should not be recorded where they are "trivial, irrational or malicious, or where there is no basis to conclude that an incident was motivated by hostility."[12]..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    Leon said:

    The Free Speech Union on "non hate crime incidents"

    "In response to freedom of information requests, police forces across Britain have revealed that 'non-crime hate incidents' (NCHIs) are being logged against people in authority doing their jobs. Examples include:

    ❌ An NCHI recorded against a doctor in West Yorkshire after a patient alleged they were misdiagnosed "because they were bisexual".

    ❌ A journalist's article about his interview with a "deaf and dumb" scooterist being reported to the police as a hate incident.

    ❌ A social worker was also reported to the police in Lancashire over claims she had abused her position and racially discriminated against the victim by preventing her from seeing her children.

    https://freespeechunion.org/doctors-and-vicars-accused-of-non-crime-hate-incidents/

    In 2014, the College of Policing — a taxpayer-funded quango — came up with the concept of the NCHI in its 'Hate Crime Operational Guidance'. As defined in this document, an NCHI is any incident perceived by the victim or any bystanders to be motivated by hostility or prejudice to the victim based on a 'protected' characteristic (race or perceived race, religion or perceived religion, and so on).

    For the avoidance of doubt, non-crime hate incidents really are as Orwellian as they sound. They aren't anonymised, and sit forever against the names of the alleged perpetrators without any real investigation or right of appeal. In addition, if one is recorded against your name it can show up on an enhanced criminal records check and prevent you from getting a job.

    That's right, you might not get a job because someone 'perceives' you've committed a 'non-crime'.

    Here's a short 🧵detailing some of the most egregious of the 250,000+ NCHIs we estimate the police in England and Wales have logged since 2014..."

    THIS IS NOT TRIVIAL

    In fact it's fucking sinister and Orwellian and we need rid of this shit

    https://x.com/SpeechUnion/status/1857803685100744883

    To be honest unless you work with children or are a doctor or social worker an enhanced DBS check is unlikely to be made on you. Though I take your point these incidents take up too much police time
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    I see politicians are still openly disregarding the law and the courts in US elections:

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pennsylvania-democrats-openly-admit-counting-illegal-ballots-mccormick-casey-race

    Look, you won. Get over it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113

    In which case:

    1 How much of Harris's loss of votes does this account for?

    2 What drove it? Gaza, social conservatism, woke, girl cooties?

    3 To the extent that it helped Trump win, it wasn't very clever, was it?
    Well certainly Bibi will step up his bombing from January
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113

    Hmmm

    The percentage of posh boys at the top of British society - in all its facets - remains extraordinarily high: from the media through politics to finance and the law. Funnily enough, policing is probably one area where they have always been less influential. Probably because it has involved starting at the bottom. Daddy can't have a word and secure you a chief inspectors role.



    Non posh boys but even more useless Starmer and Reeves are our PM and Chancellor now, at least Boris won a landslide majority and got Brexit and the vaccines done and Rishi cleared up the mess of non Posh girl Truss
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,824
    viewcode said:

    If you are willing to pay me and if some of the politicos on this website (@NickPalmer, @Tissue_Price, @RochdalePioneers, @JohnO ) can back me up with the clearances, i am more than willing to spend the time going thru each NCHI database and writing it up. I used to hold SC and CTC clearance, I'm a member of the RSS, and have a background as a researcher. You have more than enough money to do this and would be considerably better than shovelling drugs up your nose while you wank.

    Or you can keep posting here in an outraged manner. Up to you.
    That's a great try but I predict he will plump for the 'continue with the low info high bp posting on here' option.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    MattW said:

    More or less. But not so much as Grand Designs, and we don't need our models to be completely divorced from reality.

    (Speaking as a moderator on Buildhub.)
    Apols (and to MaxPB), it was you who pointed me towards Buildhub - great site, thanks!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772

    Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ·
    Nov 11
    🇺🇸 How did Muslim-Americans vote in 2024?

    🟩 Stein (GRN): 53% (+53)
    🟥 Trump (REP): 21% (+14)
    🟦 Harris (DEM): 20% (-73)

    Via
    @CAIRNational
    , 5-6 Nov (+/- vs 2020)
    But did they vote that way in the key rust belt states?

    Stein got:

    PA: 0.5%
    MI: 0.8%
    WI: 0.4%

    I thought there were a lot of Muslims in these states, particularly Michigan. So the actual Stein vote in those states appears lower than would have been expected if the poll was correct.

    Incidentally, even if 100% of the Stein vote had gone to Harris, Trump would still have won all three states (and Harris needed to win them all).
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522
    MattW said:

    My mainline East-Midlands are currently talking about new carriages. It's the classic Rail Network "What can we do to help? Ooops it's too late !" routine. As seen recently for accessible buses nearly everywhere.

    But the buggers are proposing the types they have on I think a couple of lines down South where there are only two bike spaces, and you have to hang it from a hook 1.6m up on the wall.

    Nightmare for disabled / more elderly / adapted cycle / smaller people, partly because they can't use the facility, and then because the disabled spaces will be full of cycles there is nowhere to place, and the limitations will mean that it may be the end of bookable spaces.

    And once it's in, we're stuck with it for another 30 years.

    As you may have read in the recent Pedals' newsletter, East Midlands Railway (EMR) are introducing new trains, initially for 'Intercity' (i.e. the London St. Pancras run) but later for the 'Regional Fleet'.

    The new class 810 Hitachi AT300 Intercity 5 carriage train, currently in test and due to begin introduction in 2025, has only TWO spaces for cycles, using hooks for vertical storage.

    For greater detail on these points, please see below, the reply to Pedals' first email to EMR and our response, saying why they should change their plans.

    EMR's second reply failed to engage with our points, saying as the trains are now being tested it is too late to change the design. They should change this detail now as they would a technical error found during test that affected operation. Delaying correction will increase the financial cost to the business (potentially the tax payer after the planned re-nationalisation), ignoring the broader societal costs which, of course, are more compelling in themselves.

    Once the new trains are in service with this short-termist limitation, the life-span could be decades. The current '222' Meridian trains came into service in 2004!


    Nightmare ! It's not as if this stuff is difficult. If anyone wants to weigh in, you can PM me.

    (Pedals is the Nottingham Cycling Group.)

    The AT300 trains very much depend on how they're fitted out, I think - the AT300-based Class 395 trains on the HS1 line to Kent are decent enough, with a dedicated bike zone behind the drivers cab at each end. But the ones used by GWR (Class 800?) with the vertical hanger things are dreadful, I agree.

    So it really ought to be possible to fix them at the next refurb - even if it really is too late to get EMR to change the design now. Definitely worth continuing to badger them about it.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,511
    edited November 2024
    HYUFD said:

    To be honest unless you work with children or are a doctor or social worker an enhanced DBS check is unlikely to be made on you. Though I take your point these incidents take up too much police time
    Even if they didn't, it's still entirely wrong to harass people for perceived non-crimes just because you object to their views or some other entirely subjective ground.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,824
    HYUFD said:

    Non posh boys but even more useless Starmer and Reeves are our PM and Chancellor now, at least Boris won a landslide majority and got Brexit and the vaccines done and Rishi cleared up the mess of non Posh girl Truss
    Starmer's majority is bigger than Johnson's. It's more than twice as big.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    edited November 2024
    kinabalu said:

    Starmer's majority is bigger than Johnson's. It's more than twice as big.
    Solely because of the divide on the right between Tories and Reform, he got 10% lower voteshare than Boris and is already well below where Boris was even when he resigned in polls now.

    Since 2000 posh boy PMs have been Blair, Cameron, Johnson and Sunak.

    Non posh boy state educated PMs have been Brown, May, Truss and Starmer (at least state until 6th form).

    I think it is fair to say the posh boys win that one.

    The last really effective non posh boy PM was of course Thatcher who leftwing class warriors with a chip on their shoulder despise even more than posh boy Tories anyway
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,835
    viewcode said:

    If you are willing to pay me and if some of the politicos on this website (@NickPalmer, @Tissue_Price, @RochdalePioneers, @JohnO ) can back me up with the clearances, i am more than willing to spend the time going thru each NCHI database and writing it up. I used to hold SC and CTC clearance, I'm a member of the RSS, and have a background as a researcher. You have more than enough money to do this and would be considerably better than shovelling drugs up your nose while you wank.

    Or you can keep posting here in an outraged manner. Up to you.
    This sounds like an excellent opportunity for some proper investigative journalism.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    Fishing said:

    Even if they didn't, it's still entirely wrong to harass people for perceived non-crimes just because you object to their views or some other entirely subjective ground.
    The problem is Public Order Act and Online Safety Bill and Malicious Communications Act offences can be interpreted widely and have been by the courts. The police only act on what laws Parliament has passed and how the judges interpret them
  • Nigelb said:

    That’s not quite accurate, is it ?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_of_Policing#Non-crime_hate_incidents
    … In December 2021, the Court of Appeal ruled that this guidance was unlawful and constituted a "chilling effect ... on the legitimate exercise of freedom of expression".[11] As a result, the guidance now states that freedom of speech should be prioritised where possible and that non-crime hate incidents should not be recorded where they are "trivial, irrational or malicious, or where there is no basis to conclude that an incident was motivated by hostility."[12]..
    Next stage, pointing out that the Free Speech Union maybe a little economical with the actualité is an attack on free speech.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    England giving it a real go
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852

    Next stage, pointing out that the Free Speech Union maybe a little economical with the actualité is an attack on free speech.
    The FSU is a great and necessary innovation and they win an awful lot of cases

    The whole idea of "non crime hate incidents" is appallingly wrong headed. Get RID
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    MattW said:

    LOL.

    The Telegraph is furious that Keir Starmer DID NOT take a freebie.


    Full piece:
    https://archive.ph/F6Y0Y

    He really is just too common, even if you never go you accept the honorary membership. It is rude to turn it down
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,824
    HYUFD said:

    Solely because of the divide on the right between Tories and Reform, he got 10% lower voteshare than Boris and is already well below where Boris was even when he resigned in polls now.

    Since 2000 posh boy PMs have been Blair, Cameron, Johnson and Sunak.

    Non posh boy state educated PMs have been Brown, May, Truss and Starmer (at least state until 6th form).

    I think it is fair to say the posh boys win that one.

    The last really effective non posh boy PM was of course Thatcher who leftwing class warriors with a chip on their shoulder despise even more than posh boy Tories anyway
    Well this left wing class warrior with a chip on his shoulder vastly prefers Margaret Thatcher to Boris Johnson.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522
    edited November 2024
    HYUFD said:

    To be honest unless you work with children or are a doctor or social worker an enhanced DBS check is unlikely to be made on you. Though I take your point these incidents take up too much police time
    They're not included on an enhanced DBS unless they're directly relevant to the job being applied for. Eg, if someone was applying to work at a Jewish primary school, it would seem reasonable to divulge an NCHI record of antisemitic abuse which didn't lead to charges being pressed.

    It's also subject to the usual GDPR protections under the DPA 2018, so Pearson should do a Subject Access Request rather than simply moaning on Twitter.
  • Nigelb said:

    That’s not quite accurate, is it ?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_of_Policing#Non-crime_hate_incidents
    … In December 2021, the Court of Appeal ruled that this guidance was unlawful and constituted a "chilling effect ... on the legitimate exercise of freedom of expression".[11] As a result, the guidance now states that freedom of speech should be prioritised where possible and that non-crime hate incidents should not be recorded where they are "trivial, irrational or malicious, or where there is no basis to conclude that an incident was motivated by hostility."[12]..
    Nothing you have written there contradicts what Leon/FSU wrote.

    And what evidence do you have that the Police are actually abiding by that ruling in their day to day actions? Certainly there are still plenty of cases being reported that appear to be in direct contradiiction to that guidance. And given that there is no actual court case to appeal so appealing these NCHIs takes a lot of effort, on top of which most people are cowed by the police and will not challenge them, I suspect that the Police don't really think they are going to get caught out.
  • Next stage, pointing out that the Free Speech Union maybe a little economical with the actualité is an attack on free speech.
    Given the SNP have already taken Orwellian to a whole new level I can understand you being a little confused by the concern about this.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,824
    HYUFD said:

    He really is just too common, even if you never go you accept the honorary membership. It is rude to turn it down
    What did you make of Reeves delivering the budget without a tumbler of whisky?

    That was England gone, I thought.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,680
    List of about 25 LibDem MPs on Bluesky (courtesy Mark Pack)

    https://bsky.app/starter-pack-short/CUxDzcc

    (This will probably drive @Leon away screaming :smile: )
  • kinabalu said:

    Well this left wing class warrior with a chip on his shoulder vastly prefers Margaret Thatcher to Boris Johnson.
    Some political opponents generate respect even when we disagree with them. Others do not.

    Give me a proper Left WIng Labour MP of 40 or 50 years ago any day over the PPE warriors of today.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,680
    IanB2 said:

    PB musical interlude: enrich your lives for twenty minutes.

    A fantastically attractive piano player, too; only two very minor missed notes in the whole, increadibly challenging, piece. Don't miss the finale.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yA5QlaFywOA

    That's an interesting Trumpet (rotary valve?)
    https://youtu.be/yA5QlaFywOA?t=1079
  • HYUFD said:

    He really is just too common, even if you never go you accept the honorary membership. It is rude to turn it down
    Maybe he just hates golf. He goes up in my estimation if that is the case.

    Besides, who is benefitting out of this arrangement? Not Starmer unless he is a committed Golfer. It is just a way for the golf club to feather its own nest.
  • Leon said:

    The FSU is a great and necessary innovation and they win an awful lot of cases

    The whole idea of "non crime hate incidents" is appallingly wrong headed. Get RID
    What’s the FSU’s track record on defending free speech on Palestine and criticism of Israel, Zionism etc?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482
    HYUFD said:

    He really is just too common, even if you never go you accept the honorary membership. It is rude to turn it down
    Do we know if Churchill was a Member? Thatcher? He's the first to decline the invitation, but perhaps it not always been offered?

    Golf is a vaguely amusing game but has become a social and geographical blight in my view.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,859
    https://nypost.com/2024/11/13/us-news/corey-burke-hacked-father-to-death-after-trumps-election-night-victory/

    “Wife of prominent trans writer hacked father to death with ice ax after Trump’s election night victory: cops”
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482
    kinabalu said:

    What did you make of Reeves delivering the budget without a tumbler of whisky?

    That was England gone, I thought.
    Odd question. I can't imagine MattW was careless enough not to have a tumbler of whisky when watching! Most of us needed a full bottle.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852

    What’s the FSU’s track record on defending free speech on Palestine and criticism of Israel, Zionism etc?
    I have no idea and give even less of a fuck
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922
    HYUFD said:

    He really is just too common, even if you never go you accept the honorary membership. It is rude to turn it down
    So confusing. One minute he's the son of a wealthy business owner, the next he's "just too common".
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,731

    Well as somebody on the left who is sympathetic to the “culture war” I’m saying I’ve given up. I can’t be alone in that thought.

    GE2024 was barely about culture, that issue as far as I can see seems to be receding.

    You won, I lost. It’s the economy that matters now - and funnily enough that is all that SKS seems to be focussing on?
    There’s an analysis that says that the US has seen many culture wars over the years, and sometimes the conservatives get a win and sometimes the progressives get a win, but at the end of the day, slavery has now been abolished, Jim Crow is gone, Italian immigrants have been integrated, Mexican immigrants have been integrated, women have equal rights, homosexuality is legal and you can have a gay marriage, etc. etc. etc. Jackson, Taft, Coolidge, Reagan all came and went. Ultimately, the progressives get most of what they want.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,824

    Some political opponents generate respect even when we disagree with them. Others do not.

    Give me a proper Left WIng Labour MP of 40 or 50 years ago any day over the PPE warriors of today.
    Different world now though. There's going to be a radical and popular contemporary left alternative to all this 'national populist' crap but we don't have it yet. It's difficult because we have to eshew xenophobia and nostalgia (both of which are voter magnets) but it's coming. I know it is.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522
    kinabalu said:

    What did you make of Reeves delivering the budget without a tumbler of whisky?

    That was England gone, I thought.
    When was the last chancellor to actually do that? I don't think Brown ever did it, so maybe Ken Clarke? Howe?

    Churchill, of course, pre-loaded Champagne before his budgets but proceeded to cognac during them, and I wouldn't be surprised if Asquith had at least a bottle and a half of claret in him when he did his....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,680
    edited November 2024

    Maybe he just hates golf. He goes up in my estimation if that is the case.

    Besides, who is benefitting out of this arrangement? Not Starmer unless he is a committed Golfer. It is just a way for the golf club to feather its own nest.
    Reflecting, it could potentially be a disadvantage if he wanted to play a round of golf with Mr Trump after breakfast.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    The next rightwing government, be it Reform or Tory or a combo of both, absolutely MUST enshrine Free Speech in law, like the US Constitution
  • MattW said:

    LOL.

    The Telegraph is furious that Keir Starmer DID NOT take a freebie.


    Full piece:
    https://archive.ph/F6Y0Y

    I lived about a mile from there when I was 3/4 years old

    It's on Wendover Road, Aylesbury. We lived on Aylesbury Road, Wendover when my Dad was posted to Halton

    I wonder if my Dad ever played there. He'd taken up golf a couple of years before when we moved to Leuchars, just down the road from St Andrews
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    kinabalu said:

    Different world now though. There's going to be a radical and popular contemporary left alternative to all this 'national populist' crap but we don't have it yet. It's difficult because we have to eshew xenophobia and nostalgia (both of which are voter magnets) but it's coming. I know it is.
    lol
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,731

    Given the history of the police blatent lying to protect their reputation or get others (including Government ministers) into trouble, I wouldn't them as far as I could throw them. Nor would I trust their transcripts. If they want to prove themselves they should release the footage for everyone to see.
    Can they just do that without Pearson’s permission?
  • I think that Marcus Smith is the best England flyhalf I've ever watched
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,824

    https://nypost.com/2024/11/13/us-news/corey-burke-hacked-father-to-death-after-trumps-election-night-victory/

    “Wife of prominent trans writer hacked father to death with ice ax after Trump’s election night victory: cops”

    It was traumatic. But still.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    edited November 2024
    Chris said:

    So confusing. One minute he's the son of a wealthy business owner, the next he's "just too common".
    He was son of a toolmaker, a small businessman, not that Starmer Jr seems very keen on them now either.

    I suspect the Golf Club was the first club that ever invited him to be a member, he certainly wouldn't even have made the waiting list of the Reform Club or the Athenaeum or the Savile Club or the MCC before becoming PM, let alone the Carlton Club and Whites (not that I expect he would have wanted to join the latter anyway).
  • Leon said:

    I have no idea and give even less of a fuck
    Fair enough, just wanted to clarify that it was defence of a particular pov rather than a principle that you’re bothered about.

    I’m sure Toby & co will be all over the right to post this.

    https://x.com/tom___scott/status/1857819174698901647?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522

    Can they just do that without Pearson’s permission?
    Not according to the law, but the police don't really seem too hot on putting basic technical restrictions in place to actually enforce that.

    There'd be no need for Pearson to get permission, though, so she could easily do a SAR and release it herself.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,824
    AlsoLei said:

    When was the last chancellor to actually do that? I don't think Brown ever did it, so maybe Ken Clarke? Howe?

    Churchill, of course, pre-loaded Champagne before his budgets but proceeded to cognac during them, and I wouldn't be surprised if Asquith had at least a bottle and a half of claret in him when he did his....
    Yes, just kidding with hyufd there. Ken Clarke was the last, I think.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,572
    kinabalu said:

    Yes, just kidding with hyufd there. Ken Clarke was the last, I think.
    Yes:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/budget-2021-drinking-commons-chancellor-b1946381.html

    That's quite an interesting article in itself.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,680

    There’s an analysis that says that the US has seen many culture wars over the years, and sometimes the conservatives get a win and sometimes the progressives get a win, but at the end of the day, slavery has now been abolished, Jim Crow is gone, Italian immigrants have been integrated, Mexican immigrants have been integrated, women have equal rights, homosexuality is legal and you can have a gay marriage, etc. etc. etc. Jackson, Taft, Coolidge, Reagan all came and went. Ultimately, the progressives get most of what they want.
    Yes, but the opponents of equality have not changed their spots.

    They fought a Civil Wat to keep slaves in slavery.
    Then they introduced all kinds of tests to stop freed slaves from getting their voting rights.
    Then we had the KKK and the rest, defending segregation.
    Then it needed the Voting Rights Act in the 1960s to give equal votes.
    And even now we have unlawful measures targeted at undermining black rights to vote.

    The war has not been comprehensively won. Yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    kinabalu said:

    Different world now though. There's going to be a radical and popular contemporary left alternative to all this 'national populist' crap but we don't have it yet. It's difficult because we have to eshew xenophobia and nostalgia (both of which are voter magnets) but it's coming. I know it is.
    There already has been, Jeremy Corbyn (plus Bernie Sanders in the US and Melenchon in France)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    MattW said:

    Yes, but the opponents of equality have not changed their spots.

    They fought a Civil Wat to keep slaves in slavery.
    Then they introduced all kinds of tests to stop freed slaves from getting their voting rights.
    Then we had the KKK and the rest, defending segregation.
    Then it needed the Voting Rights Act in the 1960s to give equal votes.
    And even now we have unlawful measures targeted at undermining black rights to vote.

    The war has not been comprehensively won. Yet.
    Yes, your side is still fiercely fighting for the right to castrate, mutilate and sterilise children. Well done
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852

    Fair enough, just wanted to clarify that it was defence of a particular pov rather than a principle that you’re bothered about.

    I’m sure Toby & co will be all over the right to post this.

    https://x.com/tom___scott/status/1857819174698901647?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
    Why are you so obsessed with Palestine/Israel?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,680
    edited November 2024
    Nigelb said:

    That’s not quite accurate, is it ?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_of_Policing#Non-crime_hate_incidents
    … In December 2021, the Court of Appeal ruled that this guidance was unlawful and constituted a "chilling effect ... on the legitimate exercise of freedom of expression".[11] As a result, the guidance now states that freedom of speech should be prioritised where possible and that non-crime hate incidents should not be recorded where they are "trivial, irrational or malicious, or where there is no basis to conclude that an incident was motivated by hostility."[12]..
    Is rather more off than that.

    I have some sympathy with Tobes on this, even though I disagree on much. He's got off his backside and made some useful things happen to keep overreach in check, even if mainly in a partisan manner.

    But he's off on the history, and trying to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

    The genesis of recording 'hate incidents' (crimes and incidents) afaik is around the Stephen Lawrence Enquiry Report in 1993, when they found that information to support the investigation had been inadequate to support the needed policing. Under a Conservative Government.

    Recommendation 21: (Note that it is Incidents as well as Crimes)

    21. That the MPS review their procedures for the recording and retention of information in relation to incidents and crimes, to ensure that adequate records are made by individual officers and specialist units in relation to their functions, and that strict rules require the retention of all such records as long as an investigation remains open.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7c2af540f0b645ba3c7202/4262.pdf

    That approach has been broadened to cover other protected characteristics alongside race. And it has evolved in other directions, and on occasions in ways which are 'convenient' but imo beyond acceptable scope.

    For me that is a basic necessity, which is a different issue to amateurishness and overreach. That has occurred in different ways under all Governments since.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    What’s the FSU’s track record on defending free speech on Palestine and criticism of Israel, Zionism etc?
    Why change the subject to Israel?
  • I lived about a mile from there when I was 3/4 years old

    It's on Wendover Road, Aylesbury. We lived on Aylesbury Road, Wendover when my Dad was posted to Halton

    I wonder if my Dad ever played there. He'd taken up golf a couple of years before when we moved to Leuchars, just down the road from St Andrews
    Did you go to Madras?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    IanB2 said:

    Leon is one of the best advertisements for wokeness that there is, since he so often demonstrates the alternative of being an ignorant bigoted twat. Compared to which, being woke seems so much nicer.

    There's nothing nice about wokeness. The only reason you support it is because, at the moment, it happens to align with your views. If it turned against your views, you'd suddenly be just as much against it as everyone else.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    Just to show that there's nothing new under the sun: a machine 3D printing concrete houses. In the 1930s;
    https://x.com/historyinmemes/status/1857491531638444163

    (Though I think it's more a form of slip forming?)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    Borthwick. Must. Go
  • IanB2 said:

    PB musical interlude: enrich your lives for twenty minutes.

    A fantastically attractive piano player, too; only two very minor missed notes in the whole, increadibly challenging, piece. Don't miss the finale.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yA5QlaFywOA

    It's like the Spice Girls never split up.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,951
    Andy_JS said:

    There's nothing nice about wokeness. The only reason you support it is because, at the moment, it happens to align with your views. If it turned against your views, you'd suddenly be just as much against it as everyone else.
    This is the culture war redux: one side sneering at the other side’s extremes and generalising the entire other side from them.

    Both sides are at it.
  • Is one "allowed" to miss notes at that level of playing?
    It is the violinists I feel sorry for. Decades of practice only to end up using their instruments like ersatz drums.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,951
    Got one of those mini Japanese barbecue boxes for my birthday. I’m doing an onglet on it at the moment, and some charred sprouts. It’s great.

    Everyone should have one. And so much classier than an air fryer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,572

    Is one "allowed" to miss notes at that level of playing?
    well...

    https://youtu.be/v1hgXlWlA98?si=D9V8J9ix2NCt6wP8

    (Victor Borge's first ever film!)
  • Did you go to Madras?
    Mumbai, Goa, Jaipur, Delhi and Agra. But not Madras

    I stayed in Mumbai for months for work, but just visited the other places
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,788
    Leon said:

    The FSU is a great and necessary innovation and they win an awful lot of cases

    The whole idea of "non crime hate incidents" is appallingly wrong headed. Get RID
    It's the usual phenomenon of the police acting beyond their powers.
    I was merely pointing out that the law is somewhat different to what the FSU piece you posted implies.

    Someone sensible (that's the hard bit) needs to take a look at how complaints to the police are recorded and retained (or not).
    Just not doing so leads to the kind of institutional blindness that, in other contexts, you would rail against.
  • Leon said:

    The next rightwing government, be it Reform or Tory or a combo of both, absolutely MUST enshrine Free Speech in law, like the US Constitution

    The FSU is complaining about 2014 since when there have been five Conservative Prime Ministers. Why do you imagine the next one will care about freedom of speech?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    Nigelb said:

    It's the usual phenomenon of the police acting beyond their powers.
    I was merely pointing out that the law is somewhat different to what the FSU piece you posted implies.

    Someone sensible (that's the hard bit) needs to take a look at how complaints to the police are recorded and retained (or not).
    Just not doing so leads to the kind of institutional blindness that, in other contexts, you would rail against.
    And, as ever, working "beyond their powers" to protect Muslims, minorities and others, and penalise the right, the rest, the majority, it really is Two Tier policing and a lot of us have had enough
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,788

    Is one "allowed" to miss notes at that level of playing?
    So long as they're in the right order.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    'Farmers besiege Welsh Labour conference
    Army of tractors descends on Llandudno to protest against Labour’s inheritance tax'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/16/farmers-besiege-welsh-labour-conference-llandudno/

  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,835

    The FSU is complaining about 2014 since when there have been five Conservative Prime Ministers. Why do you imagine the next one will care about freedom of speech?
    He said must, not will.
    You may remember the complaint about the last Con government tbat it made a lot of right wing noise without actually doing anything right wing (thereby alienating everyone).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852

    The FSU is complaining about 2014 since when there have been five Conservative Prime Ministers. Why do you imagine the next one will care about freedom of speech?
    Which is absolutely fair. The Tories had 14 years to do something - to do a lot - about all this, and they did fuck all. They did not remotely roll back the capture of the institutions by the Woke Left, they barely started it

    Which is why we need something like a British Trump (not Boris)
  • Mumbai, Goa, Jaipur, Delhi and Agra. But not Madras
    Chennai, surely :)
  • Leon said:

    And, as ever, working "beyond their powers" to protect Muslims, minorities and others, and penalise the right, the rest, the majority, it really is Two Tier policing and a lot of us have had enough
    For context the FSU was founded by eugenicist Toby Young.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786
    Andy_JS said:

    I hope the farmers are successful in getting the government to back down on their inheritance tax policy.

    No, Starmer will take a deep breath and suck all the energy out of the farmers' protests, because he's an ex-tractor fan.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,680
    Dopermean said:

    For context the FSU was founded by eugenicist Toby Young.
    IMO that "eugenicist" was mainly a tactical, partisan smear.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,572

    No, Starmer will take a deep breath and suck all the energy out of the farmers' protests, because he's an ex-tractor fan.
    A bit Laboured.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    Andy_JS said:

    I hope the farmers are successful in getting the government to back down on their inheritance tax policy.

    Feels to me like Starmer's govt has few policies, but that they could all unravel quite quickly:

    If no growth - will have to cut budgets
    Trump could pretty much reverse thinking on Chagos decision
    If confidence in government debt continues to be weak, they'll have to rethink climate expenditure
    Assisted dying bill could flounder

    etc
    etc
    etc

    Its just a continuation of Brownian-Sunakite fag end governments. Very, very disappointing
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,680
    Leon said:

    Yes, your side is still fiercely fighting for the right to castrate, mutilate and sterilise children. Well done
    My side?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    edited November 2024
    Andy_JS said:

    I hope the farmers are successful in getting the government to back down on their inheritance tax policy.

    Yes thousands of them are marching on central London too on Tuesday organised by Farmers for Action and will be led by Jeremy Clarkson
    https://www.farminglife.com/country-and-farming/farmers-for-action-to-attend-london-protest-on-tuesday-19-november-4863528
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    .
    Mortimer said:

    Feels to me like Starmer's govt has few policies, but that they could all unravel quite quickly:

    If no growth - will have to cut budgets
    Trump could pretty much reverse thinking on Chagos decision
    If confidence in government debt continues to be weak, they'll have to rethink climate expenditure
    Assisted dying bill could flounder

    etc
    etc
    etc

    Its just a continuation of Brownian-Sunakite fag end governments. Very, very disappointing
    Time for the Bush “missing me yet” posters?
This discussion has been closed.