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The Conservatives are the 1/10 favourites to win the next general election – politicalbetting.com
The Conservatives are the 1/10 favourites to win the next general election – politicalbetting.com
Next year one of the major elections will be the 45th Canadian federal election which has to be held on or by the 20th of October 2025 and the betting from Ladbrokes shows the expected trend of incumbents getting clobbered senseless.
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Canadians have been known to totally change their minds in the last 5 days.
It is possible they simply have different slants on the incident.
And it's possible of course that they're all lying.
"Trump’s second coming marks a historic turning point, comparable in its geopolitical consequences with the Soviet collapse: the definitive end of a liberal world order. With regime change in the US, countries that relied on American protection face an unavoidable choice: arm and defend themselves, or else make peace with the rising authoritarian powers. There is no going back."
That would mean a hung parliament with the Conservatives largest party rather than the landslide Conservative win after nine years in opposition summer polls suggested
"Opinion polling for the 45th Canadian federal election - Wikipedia" https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_federal_election
Click bait
Nice one
I just woke up from a dream that the Official Monster Raving Loony Party had won the US election with Count Binface as president, and he was nominating a load of weirdos for the cabinet...
Can you cope with two massive elections at the same time?
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/01/can-you-cope-with-two-massive-elections-at-the-same-time/
and
No leads Yes by 28% in the latest independence poll
(It was a poll on Welsh independence.)
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/03/29/no-leads-yes-by-28-in-the-latest-independence-poll/
I took a second take on the headline but it seems odds on according to my eldest and Canadian daughter in law in Vancouver
On domestic politics, it seems Llandudno is going to be on the news today as farmers converge in convoys down the A55 from east and west and intend halting outside the conference centre Starmer where is to address Welsh labour
Mind you, he is an Emeritus Professor of geology and palaeontology at Simon Fraser University, so I suppose that’s understandable.
Rishi Sunak's chopper is going to get him into a lot of trouble
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/08/13/rishi-sunaks-chopper-is-going-to-get-him-into-a-lot-of-trouble/
Albeit a few people pointed out the headline wasn't nearly as funny as the fact that I was giving other people advice on how to not look like an arrogant out of touch elitist.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/21/world/pakistan-diplomat-gaza-interview-intl
The police won't have mentioned non crime hate crime, they might have mentioned hate crime but more likely public order act 1986 (yes that is how long this has been the status quo). Pearson will think she has committed no crime and is therefore justified in calling it a no crime hate crime.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1986/64/section/18
"A person who uses threatening, abusive or insulting words or behaviour, or displays any written material which is threatening, abusive or insulting, is guilty of an offence if—
(a)he intends thereby to stir up racial hatred, or
(b)having regard to all the circumstances racial hatred is likely to be stirred up thereby."
Everyone involved seems to have more memory issues than Nicola Sturgeon.
Count Binface should sue.
The PTI have a history of senior people saying stuff like this.
I’d say that they are a bit of a mirror to Modi in India, in many ways.
British Tories can't currently be any more than 1/5...
Also, depending on how the Trump revolution works out, there could be a big impact on upcoming European elections, e.g. Germany 2025, France 2027...
It's almost as bad as having a party wanting to back to the 1950s calling itself Reform.
Do they wear bad hats, I wonder?
Only surprise is that they haven't been arrested already for planning the protest.
Still looks like Trudeau is on his way out.
Anyone waving their banners is not my friend.
If we've got to go back.
And Good Morning everybody!
The 70s were better. Vespasian was a good emperor.
Ten point lead for the opposition with nearly a year to go... I think here people would be stroking chins and saying 'good for the opposition, but probably not good enough- five point swing and that lead vanishes.'
The answer looks like no.
Edit: a big question is the accuracy of the polls, as here
Reminds me of what the East German Stasi used to do.
The answer to both questions is NO. They are both voicing an aspiration.
Pointing out the history of the PTI is simply providing a truth.
Something which Pearson (and the plover) need to do more often.
If someone has a view that the creation of the Isreali state was wrong* and the land should revert to being a Palestinian state is there any legitimate way in which they can protest?
Andy McDonald was suspended from the Labour Party after stating in a pro-Palestine rally speech: "We won't rest until we have justice, until all people, Israelis and Palestinians, between the river and the sea can live in peaceful liberty". The party described McDonald's comment as "deeply offensive".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/From_the_river_to_the_sea#Usage
What's 'deeply offensive' about wishing that 'all people, Israelis and Palestinians, between the river and the sea can live in peaceful liberty'?
(*For the avoidance of doubt, I fully support Isreal's right to exist.)
Imagine being called Rachel Reeves and being mistaken for a liar who submitted a dishonest CV when applying for a job 15 years ago.
Trump was always there or thereabouts in the polling
In this case the original usage and intent was the elimination of Israel by force and the specific expulsion of all Jews from the area.
Amother is “How can I be Anti-Semitic? I am a Semite” - on the surface, reasonable. Aside from the historical ignorance.
Generally used by mouth breathing racists, of the kind who think that selling the Protocols of The Elders of Zion is a good business.
Or look at the various weasel phrases used by Otzma Yehudit to describe what they want to happen to Palestinians.
Is it criminal, probably not. Is it bad politics for a mainstream party, absolutely.
The result, in terms of EVs was on the high end of the range predicted, for Trump. But the number of votes the other way that would have switched it all back for Harris was tiny.
Being a bit hard on yourself, @TSE
You're so keen to appear like the ordinary man, you go so far as to live in... Sheffield
Whatever the British elite is, it sure don't live in Sheffield
Recently the law appears to have been selectively enforced against the 'far right' protesters. I don't object to this in principle as I can see that the state had to get the riots under control. But I think the prison sentences that followed were severely misjudged, they erode trust in the state amongst part of the population, and will lead to adverse political and even diplomatic consequences for the UK. This is in line with the view of the 'reform' party, I think.
Regarding 'from the river to the sea' a lot would depend on context. I was suprised walking around East London last year that people could freely chant 'from the river to the sea' and 'support the palestinian militias' in the aftermath of October 7th, and this would not fall foul of this law.
We dinnae ken. Because we dinnae want to ken.
But it increasingly looks like we will ken, if not quite the noo, fairly shortly.
The man lies with the frequency of the rotation of the fan on an ergometer rowed by Mathew Pinsent. True.
However.
In this case, he was saying that he would get all those who he thinks thwarted him, out of the way. And replace them with MAGA loyalists.
Given that this is entirely in his own interest (as he sees it), why would he not do this?
But I do get your point.
I still think it's 50/50 whether his revolutionary zeal all fizzles out soon after January 20th tbh.
Ethnic cleansing has absolutely happened, many times, in history, so it is foolish to claim it is impossible. In some situations you can argue that it has been beneficial - eg the swapping of Greek/Turkish populations in the 1920s so as to make Turkey echt Turkish and Greece echt Greek was arguably a success, even though much suffering was caused en route
It largely brought to an end a bloody and seething conflict which had endured for many decades
https://merip.org/2013/06/the-greek-turkish-population-exchange/
An example closer to home would be screeching about ‘endless bile’ and then scuttling off when asked to provide proof.
Is there a clearer example of intimidatory racism and anti-Semitism? It's far worse than "from the river to the sea"
You may presume these guys were banged up. They were not. All charges were dropped. "Not enough evidence". Apart from an actual video
https://www.hamhigh.co.uk/news/23139381.finchley-road-convoy-antisemitism-charges-dropped/
Unwanted populations just had to leave, so as to ensure the stability of the State. It happened all over Eastern Europe, after 1945.
As the world reverts to older political ethics, I expect we’ll see that again.
The worry is the people around Trump who would carry on government in his effective absence.
That goes double if he guts the permanent system of government.
What remains to be seen, is how much damage he will do in the process.