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The end of the enlightenment – politicalbetting.com

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,264
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    I think the pendulum on the left has already swung back to be honest.

    Identity politics and being pro immigration are basically over as far as I can see.

    Labour has not done a single identity politics or pro immigration thing since coming to office that I can see.

    I'd like to think so - but it takes a long, long time to turn the tanker around, and the government have done nothing to turn the dial; they just haven't turned it any further. There are still any number of identity politics and pro-immigration things happening. The identarian left is still there throughout the public sector and public-sector-adjacent-sector - it may not be getting further encouragement but nor is it getting any discouragement.
    It’s also palpably not true

    Labour has already done tons of pro migrant woke shit. Abolished the preference for Brits in council housing etc. Abandoned Rwanda and not attempted to replace it. And much else

    They are still merrily paddling the national kayak forward through the rapids marked “from here on a Reform government - or something far worse - is just beyond the next waterfall”
    We could spend another £800m to find 4 volunteers to travel to Botswana, but I don't really see the point?
    I don’t think even @SeanT costs £800 million to be sent to Botswana?
    The new government estimated that the old government had spent £700 million in total on the Rwanda scheme.
    How much of that was due to cockblocking by the 3rd sector and activist Liberal-Left, though?

    Once resolved the cost per head would have dropped dramatically. It just never got there.

    Because of the cockblocking.
    That rather falls foul of the reality that the initial capacity was limited to 200, and that the claimed "rapid scale up" was a little problematic because Rwanda is a country modestly larger than Wales with a population of 13 million.

    Sending them somewhere tiny, which is even fuller than we are, in penny packets, is strange logic.
    You forget that had they all been sent there (at the rate of 2,000-3,000 a month for just 2-3 months, maybe less) then crossing would stop to zero, and end. Because the business model would be destroyed.

    Yes, that'd have required up to 10,000 places (not 200) but Rwanda could have accommodated more and the "value" we'd have purchased would have been an end to boat crossings, the political and social damage that infiltration immigration does, and the absurd amount we were (and still are) spending on accommodating them in UK hotels.
  • ManOfGwentManOfGwent Posts: 84
    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    It is bizarre that Trump's Cabinet choices are so bizarre. You'd think he would look for quietly-competent careerists to implement his programme, advance his reputation and not compete for headlines.

    I think that misunderstands what his programme is.

    Trump wants to dismantle what he understands as the Deep State. He also wants to rule by fear and intimidation. A quietly competent AG would not go out harassing media, business and political opponents for criticising Trump. But a DoJ run by Gaetz will.

    The Kennedy appointment is both about revenge for Covid, and the medical fraternity's attacks on Trump, and some red meat for part of his electoral coalition. He doesn't give a damn about how many people die as a result. Why would he?

    Gabbard is an interesting one. Perhaps it's part of a deal he's lining up with Putin.
    "Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty."

    — Hannah Arendt
    Which quote perfectly captures the Labour government - and indeed most left wing governments (such as remain) in the west

    Really? You could accuse some Labour ministers as being mediocre or wrong but can you specify which you consider to be a crackpot or a fool?
    David Lammy is a cretin
    Oh come on. There's plenty of ministers (according to political persuasion) that we think are terrible in their role or delivering misguided policies. That's the nature of politics. They're not crackpots in the sense of that quote or in the same vein as appointing Matt Gaetz. You have to recognise a difference.
    From personal experience, Lammy is a legitimate moron.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    I think the pendulum on the left has already swung back to be honest.

    Identity politics and being pro immigration are basically over as far as I can see.

    Labour has not done a single identity politics or pro immigration thing since coming to office that I can see.

    I'd like to think so - but it takes a long, long time to turn the tanker around, and the government have done nothing to turn the dial; they just haven't turned it any further. There are still any number of identity politics and pro-immigration things happening. The identarian left is still there throughout the public sector and public-sector-adjacent-sector - it may not be getting further encouragement but nor is it getting any discouragement.
    It’s also palpably not true

    Labour has already done tons of pro migrant woke shit. Abolished the preference for Brits in council housing etc. Abandoned Rwanda and not attempted to replace it. And much else

    They are still merrily paddling the national kayak forward through the rapids marked “from here on a Reform government - or something far worse - is just beyond the next waterfall”
    We could spend another £800m to find 4 volunteers to travel to Botswana, but I don't really see the point?
    I don’t think even @SeanT costs £800 million to be sent to Botswana?
    The new government estimated that the old government had spent £700 million in total on the Rwanda scheme.
    How much of that was due to cockblocking by the 3rd sector and activist Liberal-Left, though?

    Once resolved the cost per head would have dropped dramatically. It just never got there.

    Because of the cockblocking.
    That rather falls foul of the reality that the initial capacity was limited to 200, and that the claimed "rapid scale up" was a little problematic because Rwanda is a country modestly larger than Wales with a population of 13 million.

    Sending them somewhere tiny, which is even fuller than we are, in penny packets, is strange logic.
    You forget that had they all
    And if my auntie had balls - we'd be back on transgender stuff, so let's not go there.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,383
    Not sure why anyone is at all surprised by these Trump picks.
    He's been touring the country for months saying what he would do. And half the votes cast were for him.
    So bewilderment and outrage are two of the least appropriate responses.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,990
    edited 12:08PM
    Nigelb said:

    Dopermean said:

    These nominations still require Senate approval though. He could just be "rewarding" loyal supporters assuming that the Senate will block them and sigh in relief at slightly less terrifying alternatives.
    A strong start though, infighting in the Senate GOP, based on his first term some of these appointees may only last a few weeks or months.

    We will see.
    I think he's deadly serious, and the Senate may just buckle. No way do they reject all of them; they aren't brave enough.
    If they just cave in and go into Recess as Trump is demanding, the need for confirmation hearings does not exist and he can just appoint.

    It's an abuse of process, but that may not stop him.

    The two barriers I can see are Scotus being perhaps ultimately more attached to their own supremacy rather than to the fluffing of Trump, and similarly for the non-cultist members of Senate being attached in some measure to their own authority.

    The Senate refused to appoint Trump's demanded candidate as speaker (if that is the correct term); is that a straw in the breeze?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,058

    Sean_F said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It is bizarre that Trump's Cabinet choices are so bizarre. You'd think he would look for quietly-competent careerists to implement his programme, advance his reputation and not compete for headlines.

    Why?

    He himself is bulletproof (according to SCOTUS)

    Why would he care if the administration is a 5 alarm dumpster fire?

    He can just get on with the grifting
    The 5D chess version of this would be that, by throwing out all these terrible appointments, everyone is distracted from the routine grift that is the real object of the exercise.

    But the Occamite solution is that a) Trump is appointing these people because they are his kind of people and b) the famed checks and balances are largely made of wet spaghetti.
    It's a kind of win-win-win. He gets his kind of people into position, he gets distractions, he humiliates the Senate/if they reject his nominees he can blame the deep state and RINOs for everything that goes wrong.
    He might allow them one scalp, for form's sake. (If so, I predict Gaetz.)
    Depends whether or not they show a scintilla of spine.

    I'd bet almost all get confirmed.
    Senate Republicans just annoyed Trump by picking Thune as Senate leader, admittedly in a secret ballot.

    I think there are 4 Republican senators still in office who voted to convict Trump in 2020, plus a handful of others who might be expected to defy him from time to time.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see more than 1 nominee being rejected by the Senate.
    Isn't he going to appointment them all during the recess?
    He is going to try to appoint them all during the recess. It is unclear whether this will work or what will happen.
    I think the Senate can prevent this. It would certainly diminish the Senate's power if they allowed it
    The Senate will nod everything through, just like they did with his judicial appointments. The House Republicans these last two years have shown the way that moderates continually flake when faced with having to choose between unity and their principles. And that was without a ferocious Trump and his mob weighing in (or much less so).

    Romney might hold out. He's old, rich, has an unusually large personal vote in Utah, an unusually high willingness to vote with his conscience* and could retire in 2026 (by when he'll be 79) without loss of face. But there are few others with the scope and inclination for that kind of independence. And it'd need four.

    * Though he voted to confirm Gorsuch, so there are limits and they're only high in relative terms.
    Collins and Murkowski I could see voting down some of these appointees.
    Possible. But even if they and Romney do, that's still a confirmation off Vance's casting vote. However, I wouldn't stake too much on it.
    It's going to be an absolute freak show.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295
    dixiedean said:

    Not sure why anyone is at all surprised by these Trump picks.
    He's been touring the country for months saying what he would do. And half the votes cast were for him.
    So bewilderment and outrage are two of the least appropriate responses.

    I think it's still OK to be outraged.

    The only cabinet Kennedy, Gabbard and Gaetz should be put is a one with a lock on the door in a nice strong prison.

    Mind, that's also true of Trump himself.

    But yes, I'm surprised anyone is bewildered.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,264
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    I think the pendulum on the left has already swung back to be honest.

    Identity politics and being pro immigration are basically over as far as I can see.

    Labour has not done a single identity politics or pro immigration thing since coming to office that I can see.

    I'd like to think so - but it takes a long, long time to turn the tanker around, and the government have done nothing to turn the dial; they just haven't turned it any further. There are still any number of identity politics and pro-immigration things happening. The identarian left is still there throughout the public sector and public-sector-adjacent-sector - it may not be getting further encouragement but nor is it getting any discouragement.
    It’s also palpably not true

    Labour has already done tons of pro migrant woke shit. Abolished the preference for Brits in council housing etc. Abandoned Rwanda and not attempted to replace it. And much else

    They are still merrily paddling the national kayak forward through the rapids marked “from here on a Reform government - or something far worse - is just beyond the next waterfall”
    We could spend another £800m to find 4 volunteers to travel to Botswana, but I don't really see the point?
    I don’t think even @SeanT costs £800 million to be sent to Botswana?
    The new government estimated that the old government had spent £700 million in total on the Rwanda scheme.
    How much of that was due to cockblocking by the 3rd sector and activist Liberal-Left, though?

    Once resolved the cost per head would have dropped dramatically. It just never got there.

    Because of the cockblocking.
    That rather falls foul of the reality that the initial capacity was limited to 200, and that the claimed "rapid scale up" was a little problematic because Rwanda is a country modestly larger than Wales with a population of 13 million.

    Sending them somewhere tiny, which is even fuller than we are, in penny packets, is strange logic.
    You forget that had they all
    And if my auntie had balls - we'd be back on transgender stuff, so let's not go there.
    But that was the intent and it was cockblocked. To deliberately stop the policy. And therefore stop it being effective. It wasn't for want of the government trying.

    This is all laid at the feet of the Tories whereas, in reality, there was a whole movement dedicated to sabotaging it. Because open borders.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,956
    Meat and alcohol served in Downing Street in the celebration of Diwali event

    Downing Street has issued an apology
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295
    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dopermean said:

    These nominations still require Senate approval though. He could just be "rewarding" loyal supporters assuming that the Senate will block them and sigh in relief at slightly less terrifying alternatives.
    A strong start though, infighting in the Senate GOP, based on his first term some of these appointees may only last a few weeks or months.

    We will see.
    I think he's deadly serious, and the Senate may just buckle. No way do they reject all of them; they aren't brave enough.
    If they just cave in and go into Recess as Trump is demanding, the need for confirmation hearings does not exist and he can just appoint.

    It's an abuse of process, but that may not stop him.

    The two barriers I can see is Scotus being perhaps ultimately more attached to their own supremacy rather than to the fluffing of Trump, and similarly for the non-cultist members of Senate being attached in some measure to their own authority.

    The Senate refused to appoint Trump's demanded candidate as speaker (if that is the correct term); is that a straw in the breeze?
    Senate majority lead. The Vice President is the official equivalent of the speaker although s/he seldom turns up.

    And no, because Scott is a complete twat that everyone including his fellow Republican senators hates and Thune is nearly as pro-Trump as he is anyway.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,734

    Boy Kennedy getting some Dem support:

    We've mentioned that Democrats might find common ground with some of Robert F Kennedy Jr's policies. Now, let's hear from Jared Polis, the Democrat governor of Colorado.

    Speaking on X, the former House representative says Kennedy will "help make America healthy again by shaking up [Department of Health and Human Services] and FDA [Food and Drug Administration]".

    Polis cites some of RFK Jr's promises, like capping prescription drug prices, cutting certain FDA departments, and moving away from "pesticide-intensive agriculture", as reasons for his excitement.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c0lp93494g9t

    Of course a move towards organic farming is not likely to bring food prices down.

    If he can sort out how they deal with animal husbandry then maybe we can have a trade deal?
    But I thought that doing to the farmers what happened to the coal miners was the policy?

    Replacement with cheap imports?
    Farmers like miners was not policy but just what someone who used to be connected said.

    But replacing farm produce with cheap imports was part of the Brexit agenda for at least some Brexiteers. Free trade agreements were to allow cheap food from Australian megafarms and America.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,990
    Sandpit said:

    Thankfully childhood vaccines are for the States to administer, rather than the Federal government.

    Kennedy’s other ideas, from implementing European food standards in the US to getting the big money out of the healthcare industry, are things that are much less controversial to the American people.

    Here’s Trump’s and RFK’s statements following his nomination: no mention of vaccines.

    https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1857170020427595797
    I am thrilled to announce Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as The United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS). For too long, Americans have been crushed by the industrial food complex and drug companies who have engaged in deception, misinformation, and disinformation when it comes to Public Health. The Safety and Health of all Americans is the most important role of any Administration, and HHS will play a big role in helping ensure that everybody will be protected from harmful chemicals, pollutants, pesticides, pharmaceutical products, and food additives that have contributed to the overwhelming Health Crisis in this Country. Mr. Kennedy will restore these Agencies to the traditions of Gold Standard Scientific Research, and beacons of Transparency, to end the Chronic Disease epidemic, and to Make America Great and Healthy Again!

    https://x.com/robertkennedyjr/status/1857198805919138235
    Thank you @realDonaldTrump for your leadership and courage. I'm committed to advancing your vision to Make America Healthy Again.

    We have a generational opportunity to bring together the greatest minds in science, medicine, industry, and government to put an end to the chronic disease epidemic.

    I look forward to working with the more than 80,000 employees at HHS to free the agencies from the smothering cloud of corporate capture so they can pursue their mission to make Americans once again the healthiest people on Earth.

    Together we will clean up corruption, stop the revolving door between industry and government, and return our health agencies to their rich tradition of gold-standard, evidence-based science. I will provide Americans with transparency and access to all the data so they can make informed choices for themselves and their families.

    My commitment to the American people is to be an honest public servant. Let’s go!

    How does that work when Trump wants to pith the administrative state, and the Scotus ruling is in place to permit this to happen?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    I think the pendulum on the left has already swung back to be honest.

    Identity politics and being pro immigration are basically over as far as I can see.

    Labour has not done a single identity politics or pro immigration thing since coming to office that I can see.

    I'd like to think so - but it takes a long, long time to turn the tanker around, and the government have done nothing to turn the dial; they just haven't turned it any further. There are still any number of identity politics and pro-immigration things happening. The identarian left is still there throughout the public sector and public-sector-adjacent-sector - it may not be getting further encouragement but nor is it getting any discouragement.
    It’s also palpably not true

    Labour has already done tons of pro migrant woke shit. Abolished the preference for Brits in council housing etc. Abandoned Rwanda and not attempted to replace it. And much else

    They are still merrily paddling the national kayak forward through the rapids marked “from here on a Reform government - or something far worse - is just beyond the next waterfall”
    We could spend another £800m to find 4 volunteers to travel to Botswana, but I don't really see the point?
    I don’t think even @SeanT costs £800 million to be sent to Botswana?
    The new government estimated that the old government had spent £700 million in total on the Rwanda scheme.
    How much of that was due to cockblocking by the 3rd sector and activist Liberal-Left, though?

    Once resolved the cost per head would have dropped dramatically. It just never got there.

    Because of the cockblocking.
    That rather falls foul of the reality that the initial capacity was limited to 200, and that the claimed "rapid scale up" was a little problematic because Rwanda is a country modestly larger than Wales with a population of 13 million.

    Sending them somewhere tiny, which is even fuller than we are, in penny packets, is strange logic.
    You forget that had they all
    And if my auntie had balls - we'd be back on transgender stuff, so let's not go there.
    But that was the intent and it was cockblocked. To deliberately stop the policy. And therefore stop it being effective. It wasn't for want of the government trying.

    This is all laid at the feet of the Tories whereas, in reality, there was a whole movement dedicated to sabotaging it. Because open borders.
    The intent of a perpetual motion machine is to supply unlimited power through constant motion without the need for fuel.

    The outcome, however, is that it doesn't work.

    I feel this is apt parallel.

    Rwanda was blocked not because it would have worked and upset the liberal elite but because it was complete madness and ruinously expensive.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,058
    dixiedean said:

    Not sure why anyone is at all surprised by these Trump picks.
    He's been touring the country for months saying what he would do. And half the votes cast were for him.
    So bewilderment and outrage are two of the least appropriate responses.

    Outrage is healthy, I think. If it disappears it means Trump has won more than just an election.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,262
    dixiedean said:

    Not sure why anyone is at all surprised by these Trump picks.
    He's been touring the country for months saying what he would do. And half the votes cast were for him.
    So bewilderment and outrage are two of the least appropriate responses.

    I would refer you back to @rcs1000 's friend(?) who voted for Trump even though the tariffs would destroy their business because they didn't believe that Trump (when re-elected) would actually implement the tariffs.

    There will be an awful lot of people like them who voted for Trump while thinking the bits promised that hurt them won't actually happen...
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 473
    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    It is bizarre that Trump's Cabinet choices are so bizarre. You'd think he would look for quietly-competent careerists to implement his programme, advance his reputation and not compete for headlines.

    I think that misunderstands what his programme is.

    Trump wants to dismantle what he understands as the Deep State. He also wants to rule by fear and intimidation. A quietly competent AG would not go out harassing media, business and political opponents for criticising Trump. But a DoJ run by Gaetz will.

    The Kennedy appointment is both about revenge for Covid, and the medical fraternity's attacks on Trump, and some red meat for part of his electoral coalition. He doesn't give a damn about how many people die as a result. Why would he?

    Gabbard is an interesting one. Perhaps it's part of a deal he's lining up with Putin.
    "Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty."

    — Hannah Arendt
    Which quote perfectly captures the Labour government - and indeed most left wing governments (such as remain) in the west

    Really? You could accuse some Labour ministers as being mediocre or wrong but can you specify which you consider to be a crackpot or a fool?
    David Lammy is a cretin
    Oh come on. There's plenty of ministers (according to political persuasion) that we think are terrible in their role or delivering misguided policies. That's the nature of politics. They're not crackpots in the sense of that quote or in the same vein as appointing Matt Gaetz. You have to recognise a difference.
    Contrary to the populist opinion, Lammy seems to have surprised on the upside, networked hard to get Starmer invites before the GE and in preparation for a possible Trump victory.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,383
    edited 12:13PM

    Meat and alcohol served in Downing Street in the celebration of Diwali event

    Downing Street has issued an apology

    What else could Sir Beer Korma have served?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295
    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    Not sure why anyone is at all surprised by these Trump picks.
    He's been touring the country for months saying what he would do. And half the votes cast were for him.
    So bewilderment and outrage are two of the least appropriate responses.

    I would refer you back to @rcs1000 's friend(?) who voted for Trump even though the tariffs would destroy their business because they didn't believe that Trump (when re-elected) would actually implement the tariffs.

    There will be an awful lot of people like them who voted for Trump while thinking the bits promised that hurt them won't actually happen...
    Time to update Darwin:

    On the ruination of business by means of natural stupidity.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,956
    dixiedean said:

    Meat and alcohol served in Downing Street in the celebration of Diwali event

    Downing Street has issued an apology

    What else could Sir Beer Korma have served?
    Well he was present apparently
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,902
    How to re-equip your army within 24 months.

    Nine K2 tanks, Twelve K9 artillerys, and eight K239 MRLS were delivered to Poland.
    So far, 71 out of 180 K2 tanks have been delivered, 120 out of 212 K9 self-propelled howitzers have been delivered, and 54 out of 218 K239 long-range rocket artillery modules have been delivered.
    I wonder how many K9 artillery and K239 missile systems were delivered to India, Egypt, Saudi, and UAE by now...

    https://x.com/mason_8718/status/1857027747450675355

    If our manufacturers are incapable of producing armoured systems on cost and on time, we should stop wasting money on them.

    They need to be given that message, along with a deadline.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,186
    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    Not sure why anyone is at all surprised by these Trump picks.
    He's been touring the country for months saying what he would do. And half the votes cast were for him.
    So bewilderment and outrage are two of the least appropriate responses.

    I would refer you back to @rcs1000 's friend(?) who voted for Trump even though the tariffs would destroy their business because they didn't believe that Trump (when re-elected) would actually implement the tariffs.

    There will be an awful lot of people like them who voted for Trump while thinking the bits promised that hurt them won't actually happen...
    To simultaneously persuade people that you will keep the crazy promises they like the sound of, and break the crazy promises that they don't want...

    ... and to do that with enough different promises for enough different people that you can win an election...

    ... that's really putting the art into con-artist. 10/10, no "even better if" feedback needed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,902
    Our HHS Secretary nominee RFK Jr. grabbing a casual lunch with twice-convicted pedophile and Russian state media propagandist Scott Ritter.
    https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1857170203248931158
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,751
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    WRT the July-Sept growth figures; net migration in 2024 is likely to be around 400,000 - it may be more of course but not much less - which is over 0.5% of the population. A growth rate of 0.1% is, per head, a decline, not an increase. It is quite misleading for reports (BBC for example) not to factor this in.

    Britain is getting obviously and provabky poorer per head day by day. You can actually SEE it

    And still the migrants flood in. I despair. We are on course for a hideous explosion of anger
    Well, I've just spent a week in London, and things have definitely improved this year. Previously, the homeless mentally ill heroin and crystal meth addicts were all over Covent Garden and Shaftesbury Avenue. Now they are nowhere to be seen.

    England beat Greece 3-0.

    And I don't think I've seen restaurants and pubs more full.

    Are you sure you're not engaging in a little bit of seeing what you want to see?
    Central London is absolutely heaving right now as the Christmas hospitality season kicks into gear. So many tourists. Every pub spilling out onto the pavement.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,788

    Meat and alcohol served in Downing Street in the celebration of Diwali event

    Downing Street has issued an apology

    Not sure why they have apologised. Whether Diwali is vegetarian and/or dry is mostly regional, some places, others aren't.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,788
    Nigelb said:

    Our HHS Secretary nominee RFK Jr. grabbing a casual lunch with twice-convicted pedophile and Russian state media propagandist Scott Ritter.
    https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1857170203248931158

    Hopefully no processed foods and plenty of raw milk otherwise the lunch might get controversial.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,956
    Lib Dems win Colinton/Fairmilehead from Labour

    [ my old constituency in the early 1960s ]
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,728
    ydoethur said:

    Meat and alcohol served in Downing Street in the celebration of Diwali event

    Downing Street has issued an apology

    At least Rishi Sunak wouldn't have made *that* mistake.
    Realistically, you wouldn't have thought, or hoped, Prime Ministers would be getting involved at that level of detail - i.e. what does the menu look like? I mean, I'm just a mid-level functionary and I'm not sure I'd be getting involved in that level of detail. You'd have thought this would be a civil service matter rather than a political matter.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,990
    Interesting one.

    There aren't that many Greens in office in Derbyshire.

    No Reform Candidate, new Labour candidate after none last time, Tory maintained vote, Green lost about 10% to new Labour candidate and was beaten by Tory 47%:43%.

    District Seat so not up for grabs in May, I think.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,953
    Mainly caused by Labour standing unlike previously. Splitters!!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,489
    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295

    Meat and alcohol served in Downing Street in the celebration of Diwali event

    Downing Street has issued an apology

    Not sure why they have apologised. Whether Diwali is vegetarian and/or dry is mostly regional, some places, others aren't.
    The reason the Sikhs serve vegetable food only in their Langar halls is so that nobody, Muslim or Hindu, will feel offended or unable to eat.

    I think with a festival where a large proportion of the guests will be vegetarian and teetotal I would have played safe by serving vegetarian and non alcoholic options only as well so there would be no potential issue.

    That's as a confirmed carnivore.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,728
    Sean_F said:

    Two Lib Dem gains from Labour, one Conservative from the Greens, this week.
    Sean_F said:

    Two Lib Dem gains from Labour, one Conservative from the Greens, this week.
    I find it utterly depressing that somewhere like Calver and Longstone in the Peak District could have 40% of the electorate voting for the far left.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,990

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    I think the pendulum on the left has already swung back to be honest.

    Identity politics and being pro immigration are basically over as far as I can see.

    Labour has not done a single identity politics or pro immigration thing since coming to office that I can see.

    I'd like to think so - but it takes a long, long time to turn the tanker around, and the government have done nothing to turn the dial; they just haven't turned it any further. There are still any number of identity politics and pro-immigration things happening. The identarian left is still there throughout the public sector and public-sector-adjacent-sector - it may not be getting further encouragement but nor is it getting any discouragement.
    It’s also palpably not true

    Labour has already done tons of pro migrant woke shit. Abolished the preference for Brits in council housing etc. Abandoned Rwanda and not attempted to replace it. And much else

    They are still merrily paddling the national kayak forward through the rapids marked “from here on a Reform government - or something far worse - is just beyond the next waterfall”
    We could spend another £800m to find 4 volunteers to travel to Botswana, but I don't really see the point?
    I don’t think even @SeanT costs £800 million to be sent to Botswana?
    The new government estimated that the old government had spent £700 million in total on the Rwanda scheme.
    How much of that was due to cockblocking by the 3rd sector and activist Liberal-Left, though?

    Once resolved the cost per head would have dropped dramatically. It just never got there.

    Because of the cockblocking.
    That rather falls foul of the reality that the initial capacity was limited to 200, and that the claimed "rapid scale up" was a little problematic because Rwanda is a country modestly larger than Wales with a population of 13 million.

    Sending them somewhere tiny, which is even fuller than we are, in penny packets, is strange logic.
    You forget that had they all been sent there (at the rate of 2,000-3,000 a month for just 2-3 months, maybe less) then crossing would stop to zero, and end. Because the business model would be destroyed.

    Yes, that'd have required up to 10,000 places (not 200) but Rwanda could have accommodated more and the "value" we'd have purchased would have been an end to boat crossings, the political and social damage that infiltration immigration does, and the absurd amount we were (and still are) spending on accommodating them in UK hotels.
    Fair counterpoints, though I don't agree.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,956
    Labour’s recent performance in Scotland does not indicate they will beat the SNP in Holyrood in 26
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    There are always plenty of boos on here when it comes to Starmer.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,788

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    They will be crowing about this like an old speckled hen.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,956

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    Why when they have apologised
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,902
    RFK Jr. Is Even Crazier Than You Might Think

    The full depth of his battiness is getting lost in the political coverage of his presidential bid.
    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/05/robert-kennedy-jr-conspiracy-theory-covid-pandemic-event-201/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    They will be crowing about this like an old speckled hen.
    Nah, they'll just complain he's so stupid he is practically kormatose.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,985
    MattW said:

    Fascinating article on state of Russia's War Economy. Putin faces huge problems if a Trump peace deal ends the fighting and he faces huge problems if it doesn't.


    "At some point in the second half of 2025, Russia will face severe shortages in several categories of weapons."

    "Russia is losing around 320 tank and artillery cannon barrels a month and producing only 20. "

    "Producing tank and artillery barrels requires rotary forges—massive pieces of engineering weighing 20 to 30 tons each—that can each produce only about 10 barrels a month. Russia only possesses two such forges."

    Free to read:

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/14/russia-war-putin-economy-weapons-production-labor-shortage-demographics/

    This chap, Covert Cabal, counts Russian tanks and guns in storage from satellite photographs.

    He did an interesting little summary survey video on progress from a few days ago. Many of them are empty now, and they are consolidating what is left.

    Deep link to start of counting:
    https://youtu.be/xKocGzNaZn8?t=117
    If you like Covert Cabal, may I also recommend Animarchy History, especially his Ukraine videos

    https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLdMafffhHGzpuog7JvZpenkLgG8KQVgq2
    https://www.youtube.com/@AnimarchyHistory/videos
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Meat and alcohol served in Downing Street in the celebration of Diwali event

    Downing Street has issued an apology

    At least Rishi Sunak wouldn't have made *that* mistake.
    Realistically, you wouldn't have thought, or hoped, Prime Ministers would be getting involved at that level of detail - i.e. what does the menu look like? I mean, I'm just a mid-level functionary and I'm not sure I'd be getting involved in that level of detail. You'd have thought this would be a civil service matter rather than a political matter.
    If Starmer was there, presumably he would have been given a menu in advance to choose from?*

    If Sunak had seen such a menu alarm bells would have rung.

    *I don't know if he was, by the way.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,788
    ydoethur said:

    Meat and alcohol served in Downing Street in the celebration of Diwali event

    Downing Street has issued an apology

    Not sure why they have apologised. Whether Diwali is vegetarian and/or dry is mostly regional, some places, others aren't.
    The reason the Sikhs serve vegetable food only in their Langar halls is so that nobody, Muslim or Hindu, will feel offended or unable to eat.

    I think with a festival where a large proportion of the guests will be vegetarian and teetotal I would have played safe by serving vegetarian and non alcoholic options only as well so there would be no potential issue.

    That's as a confirmed carnivore.
    That is certainly reasonable but I don't think it unreasonable to serve both either.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,492

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    Starmer obviously saw Diwali on the calender and thought it was the perfect opportunity for the old Beer Korma special.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,956
    edited 12:35PM
    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Meat and alcohol served in Downing Street in the celebration of Diwali event

    Downing Street has issued an apology

    At least Rishi Sunak wouldn't have made *that* mistake.
    Realistically, you wouldn't have thought, or hoped, Prime Ministers would be getting involved at that level of detail - i.e. what does the menu look like? I mean, I'm just a mid-level functionary and I'm not sure I'd be getting involved in that level of detail. You'd have thought this would be a civil service matter rather than a political matter.
    If Starmer was there, presumably he would have been given a menu in advance to choose from?*

    If Sunak had seen such a menu alarm bells would have rung.

    *I don't know if he was, by the way.
    Sky said Starmer was present

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-starmer-reeves-pensions-labour-badenoch-conservative-trump-12593360
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,953
    Nigelb said:

    Our HHS Secretary nominee RFK Jr. grabbing a casual lunch with twice-convicted pedophile and Russian state media propagandist Scott Ritter.
    https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1857170203248931158

    A paedophile and Russian propagandist! Maybe RFK Jr is just getting used to the people he’ll work with in Trump’s cabinet.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,313

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Meat and alcohol served in Downing Street in the celebration of Diwali event

    Downing Street has issued an apology

    At least Rishi Sunak wouldn't have made *that* mistake.
    Realistically, you wouldn't have thought, or hoped, Prime Ministers would be getting involved at that level of detail - i.e. what does the menu look like? I mean, I'm just a mid-level functionary and I'm not sure I'd be getting involved in that level of detail. You'd have thought this would be a civil service matter rather than a political matter.
    If Starmer was there, presumably he would have been given a menu in advance to choose from?*

    If Sunak had seen such a menu alarm bells would have rung.

    *I don't know if he was, by the way.
    Sky said Starmer was present

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-starmer-reeves-pensions-labour-badenoch-conservative-trump-12593360
    But didn't inhale...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,953
    Nigelb said:

    RFK Jr. Is Even Crazier Than You Might Think

    The full depth of his battiness is getting lost in the political coverage of his presidential bid.
    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/05/robert-kennedy-jr-conspiracy-theory-covid-pandemic-event-201/

    The thing is there’s about 5 people on PB who believe all that.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,308

    Meat and alcohol served in Downing Street in the celebration of Diwali event

    Downing Street has issued an apology

    Curry and beer?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Meat and alcohol served in Downing Street in the celebration of Diwali event

    Downing Street has issued an apology

    At least Rishi Sunak wouldn't have made *that* mistake.
    Realistically, you wouldn't have thought, or hoped, Prime Ministers would be getting involved at that level of detail - i.e. what does the menu look like? I mean, I'm just a mid-level functionary and I'm not sure I'd be getting involved in that level of detail. You'd have thought this would be a civil service matter rather than a political matter.
    If Starmer was there, presumably he would have been given a menu in advance to choose from?*

    If Sunak had seen such a menu alarm bells would have rung.

    *I don't know if he was, by the way.
    Do we think that the PM chooses or is consulted on the menu. I really hope not.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,308

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    BigG. has finally found his "gotcha"!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,788

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    BigG. has finally found his "gotcha"!
    Are Northumbria police on the case yet?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,990
    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    Two Lib Dem gains from Labour, one Conservative from the Greens, this week.
    Sean_F said:

    Two Lib Dem gains from Labour, one Conservative from the Greens, this week.
    I find it utterly depressing that somewhere like Calver and Longstone in the Peak District could have 40% of the electorate voting for the far left.
    I'm not sure if I would term a Green "far-left", without knowing whether she is of that stripe in the party - I agree there are some, in the same way that are some "far-right" in the Conservative Party, and "far-left" in Labour.

    One factor is that there was no Lab Candidate last time, so she would have most of their votes and a chance to build a personal vote some of which would stick.

    Calver is my side of the Peak Park, but far enough away that I have little local knowledge.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,264
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    I think the pendulum on the left has already swung back to be honest.

    Identity politics and being pro immigration are basically over as far as I can see.

    Labour has not done a single identity politics or pro immigration thing since coming to office that I can see.

    I'd like to think so - but it takes a long, long time to turn the tanker around, and the government have done nothing to turn the dial; they just haven't turned it any further. There are still any number of identity politics and pro-immigration things happening. The identarian left is still there throughout the public sector and public-sector-adjacent-sector - it may not be getting further encouragement but nor is it getting any discouragement.
    It’s also palpably not true

    Labour has already done tons of pro migrant woke shit. Abolished the preference for Brits in council housing etc. Abandoned Rwanda and not attempted to replace it. And much else

    They are still merrily paddling the national kayak forward through the rapids marked “from here on a Reform government - or something far worse - is just beyond the next waterfall”
    We could spend another £800m to find 4 volunteers to travel to Botswana, but I don't really see the point?
    I don’t think even @SeanT costs £800 million to be sent to Botswana?
    The new government estimated that the old government had spent £700 million in total on the Rwanda scheme.
    How much of that was due to cockblocking by the 3rd sector and activist Liberal-Left, though?

    Once resolved the cost per head would have dropped dramatically. It just never got there.

    Because of the cockblocking.
    That rather falls foul of the reality that the initial capacity was limited to 200, and that the claimed "rapid scale up" was a little problematic because Rwanda is a country modestly larger than Wales with a population of 13 million.

    Sending them somewhere tiny, which is even fuller than we are, in penny packets, is strange logic.
    You forget that had they all
    And if my auntie had balls - we'd be back on transgender stuff, so let's not go there.
    But that was the intent and it was cockblocked. To deliberately stop the policy. And therefore stop it being effective. It wasn't for want of the government trying.

    This is all laid at the feet of the Tories whereas, in reality, there was a whole movement dedicated to sabotaging it. Because open borders.
    The intent of a perpetual motion machine is to supply unlimited power through constant motion without the need for fuel.

    The outcome, however, is that it doesn't work.

    I feel this is apt parallel.

    Rwanda was blocked not because it would have worked and upset the liberal elite but because it was complete madness and ruinously expensive.
    Nah. It upset the Liberal elite and was already starting to work, witness the uptick in asylum applications in Ireland
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,956

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    BigG. has finally found his "gotcha"!
    At times you are so childish

    Mistakes are made apology given
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,985
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    This is such a superb analysis of Why Trump, FPT, by @darkage, I an simply going to repost it


    “The populist right is the answer to the problems we face by a process of elimination - there is no other answer and no other viable option.

    The counterfactual to that is Brexit.

    There was no problem with being a member of the EU that Brexit actually solved.

    The populist right made a lot of noise, got their way, and it's shit.

    Murica is about to enter the Find Out phase of the same process...
    Jesus Fucking Christ STFU about Brexit
    That's one way to avoid learning the lessons of history
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,450

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    BigG. has finally found his "gotcha"!
    Are Northumbria police on the case yet?
    Sue Gray is currently unemployed if they need someone to do a report.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,308

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    BigG. has finally found his "gotcha"!
    Are Northumbria police on the case yet?
    I've already emailed Ric Holden and Ivo Delingpole, so watch this space...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,956
    edited 12:49PM

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    BigG. has finally found his "gotcha"!
    Are Northumbria police on the case yet?
    I've already emailed Ric Holden and Ivo Delingpole, so watch this space...
    You need to grow up

    And I would add respect the Diwali community
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,492
    boulay said:

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    BigG. has finally found his "gotcha"!
    Are Northumbria police on the case yet?
    Sue Gray is currently unemployed if they need someone to do a report.
    Surely it counts as a non-crime hate incident and needs to be recorded in the official statistics.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,902

    Nigelb said:

    RFK Jr. Is Even Crazier Than You Might Think

    The full depth of his battiness is getting lost in the political coverage of his presidential bid.
    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/05/robert-kennedy-jr-conspiracy-theory-covid-pandemic-event-201/

    The thing is there’s about 5 people on PB who believe all that.
    Naturally.
    If they can spend their time winding us up, the least I can do is return the compliment.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,001
    ydoethur said:

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    They will be crowing about this like an old speckled hen.
    Nah, they'll just complain he's so stupid he is practically kormatose.
    Still trying to curry favour with your puns?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,649
    Aggregate Result of the 121 Council By-Elections (for 123 Seats) Since the 2024 General Election after last nights results:

    LAB: 41 (-20)
    CON: 39 (+16)
    LDM: 19 (+1)
    GRN: 8 (+3)
    IND: 6 (-2)
    SNP: 4 (-1)
    RFM: 3 (+3)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,734
    boulay said:

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    BigG. has finally found his "gotcha"!
    Are Northumbria police on the case yet?
    Sue Gray is currently unemployed if they need someone to do a report.
    That might actually be the story here. Sue Gray was ousted in favour of Morgan McSweeney as Chief of Staff (because President Bartlet had one on The West Wing) so the question is whether McSweeney stuffed it up.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,308

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    BigG. has finally found his "gotcha"!
    Are Northumbria police on the case yet?
    I've already emailed Ric Holden and Ivo Delingpole, so watch this space...
    You need to grow up
    Moi?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,169
    Leon said:

    Ooh. I’ve just been invited to the Faroe Isles

    Highest cliffs in the world?! Tick!

    There’s a great restaurant there - a 4 table bothy above someone’s house
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,001
    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    Fascinating article on state of Russia's War Economy. Putin faces huge problems if a Trump peace deal ends the fighting and he faces huge problems if it doesn't.


    "At some point in the second half of 2025, Russia will face severe shortages in several categories of weapons."

    "Russia is losing around 320 tank and artillery cannon barrels a month and producing only 20. "

    "Producing tank and artillery barrels requires rotary forges—massive pieces of engineering weighing 20 to 30 tons each—that can each produce only about 10 barrels a month. Russia only possesses two such forges."

    Free to read:

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/14/russia-war-putin-economy-weapons-production-labor-shortage-demographics/

    This chap, Covert Cabal, counts Russian tanks and guns in storage from satellite photographs.

    He did an interesting little summary survey video on progress from a few days ago. Many of them are empty now, and they are consolidating what is left.

    Deep link to start of counting:
    https://youtu.be/xKocGzNaZn8?t=117
    If you like Covert Cabal, may I also recommend Animarchy History, especially his Ukraine videos

    https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLdMafffhHGzpuog7JvZpenkLgG8KQVgq2
    https://www.youtube.com/@AnimarchyHistory/videos
    And before the usual suspects weigh in, what will happen as they run out of a type of weapon will be

    1) massively reduced usage
    2) substitution with inferior weapons
    3) saving up the limited production to create surge attacks.

    This kind of “broken back” warfare has occurred several times in the Ukraine War. Such as the missile attacks on cities.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,956

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    BigG. has finally found his "gotcha"!
    Are Northumbria police on the case yet?
    I've already emailed Ric Holden and Ivo Delingpole, so watch this space...
    You need to grow up
    Moi?
    You do realise that it is the Diwali community you are disrespecting with your adonine comments
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,058
    Has the apology from Starmer only compounded the original error? How does he put the fire out now?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,788

    ydoethur said:

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    They will be crowing about this like an old speckled hen.
    Nah, they'll just complain he's so stupid he is practically kormatose.
    Still trying to curry favour with your puns?
    This discussion is surely going to end quite spicy.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,649

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    BigG. has finally found his "gotcha"!
    Are Northumbria police on the case yet?
    I've already emailed Ric Holden and Ivo Delingpole, so watch this space...
    You need to grow up
    Moi?

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    BigG. has finally found his "gotcha"!
    Are Northumbria police on the case yet?
    I've already emailed Ric Holden and Ivo Delingpole, so watch this space...
    You need to grow up
    Moi?
    Precocious moi
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,308

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    BigG. has finally found his "gotcha"!
    Are Northumbria police on the case yet?
    I've already emailed Ric Holden and Ivo Delingpole, so watch this space...
    You need to grow up

    And I would add respect the Diwali community
    I wasn't there!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,788
    kinabalu said:

    Has the apology from Starmer only compounded the original error? How does he put the fire out now?

    Raita?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,956

    Leon said:

    Ooh. I’ve just been invited to the Faroe Isles

    Highest cliffs in the world?! Tick!

    There’s a great restaurant there - a 4 table bothy above someone’s house
    Our ship had a new Captain who was clueless and got the anchor caught under an important undersea cable in Faroes
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,083
    Seems like things are moving along in Ukraine according to Big Serge and others on X
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,985

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    Fascinating article on state of Russia's War Economy. Putin faces huge problems if a Trump peace deal ends the fighting and he faces huge problems if it doesn't.


    "At some point in the second half of 2025, Russia will face severe shortages in several categories of weapons."

    "Russia is losing around 320 tank and artillery cannon barrels a month and producing only 20. "

    "Producing tank and artillery barrels requires rotary forges—massive pieces of engineering weighing 20 to 30 tons each—that can each produce only about 10 barrels a month. Russia only possesses two such forges."

    Free to read:

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/14/russia-war-putin-economy-weapons-production-labor-shortage-demographics/

    This chap, Covert Cabal, counts Russian tanks and guns in storage from satellite photographs.

    He did an interesting little summary survey video on progress from a few days ago. Many of them are empty now, and they are consolidating what is left.

    Deep link to start of counting:
    https://youtu.be/xKocGzNaZn8?t=117
    If you like Covert Cabal, may I also recommend Animarchy History, especially his Ukraine videos

    https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLdMafffhHGzpuog7JvZpenkLgG8KQVgq2
    https://www.youtube.com/@AnimarchyHistory/videos
    And before the usual suspects weigh in, what will happen as they run out of a type of weapon will be

    1) massively reduced usage
    2) substitution with inferior weapons
    3) saving up the limited production to create surge attacks.

    This kind of “broken back” warfare has occurred several times in the Ukraine War. Such as the missile attacks on cities.
    4) Just buy more from abroad
    5) Adapt existing weapons to serve similar purposes

    The theory that countries fight until they run out of fixed stocks in the warehouse is silly. But everybody insists on producing articles that say exactly that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,902

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    Fascinating article on state of Russia's War Economy. Putin faces huge problems if a Trump peace deal ends the fighting and he faces huge problems if it doesn't.


    "At some point in the second half of 2025, Russia will face severe shortages in several categories of weapons."

    "Russia is losing around 320 tank and artillery cannon barrels a month and producing only 20. "

    "Producing tank and artillery barrels requires rotary forges—massive pieces of engineering weighing 20 to 30 tons each—that can each produce only about 10 barrels a month. Russia only possesses two such forges."

    Free to read:

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/14/russia-war-putin-economy-weapons-production-labor-shortage-demographics/

    This chap, Covert Cabal, counts Russian tanks and guns in storage from satellite photographs.

    He did an interesting little summary survey video on progress from a few days ago. Many of them are empty now, and they are consolidating what is left.

    Deep link to start of counting:
    https://youtu.be/xKocGzNaZn8?t=117
    If you like Covert Cabal, may I also recommend Animarchy History, especially his Ukraine videos

    https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLdMafffhHGzpuog7JvZpenkLgG8KQVgq2
    https://www.youtube.com/@AnimarchyHistory/videos
    And before the usual suspects weigh in, what will happen as they run out of a type of weapon will be

    1) massively reduced usage
    2) substitution with inferior weapons
    3) saving up the limited production to create surge attacks.

    This kind of “broken back” warfare has occurred several times in the Ukraine War. Such as the missile attacks on cities.
    They are beginning to get armour and artillery from N Korea, though.
    Which is probably at least as good as the crap they're digging out of storage.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,902
    What do PB historians think of this analogy ?

    A quick 🧵on my @WarOnTheRocks piece, out this morning.

    I wrote this 1) to draw attention to the collapse of my discipline/history pre-1800 and 2) because as I think about Ukraine today, multiple themes from the late Seven Years War resonate. 1/10

    https://x.com/KKriegeBlog/status/1757020837868142813
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,489

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    BigG. has finally found his "gotcha"!
    Are Northumbria police on the case yet?
    I've already emailed Ric Holden and Ivo Delingpole, so watch this space...
    You need to grow up

    And I would add respect the Diwali community
    Diwali community?

    It’s very disrespectful to call them that, like calling Christians the Easter community.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Meat and alcohol served in Downing Street in the celebration of Diwali event

    Downing Street has issued an apology

    At least Rishi Sunak wouldn't have made *that* mistake.
    Realistically, you wouldn't have thought, or hoped, Prime Ministers would be getting involved at that level of detail - i.e. what does the menu look like? I mean, I'm just a mid-level functionary and I'm not sure I'd be getting involved in that level of detail. You'd have thought this would be a civil service matter rather than a political matter.
    If Starmer was there, presumably he would have been given a menu in advance to choose from?*

    If Sunak had seen such a menu alarm bells would have rung.

    *I don't know if he was, by the way.
    Do we think that the PM chooses or is consulted on the menu. I really hope not.
    I would be very surprised if the PM isn't asked in advance what he would like for a dinner being served in No. 10 out of the options available.

    And Sunak, on noting the options, would presumably have pointed out the mistake being made.
  • CharlieSharkCharlieShark Posts: 152
    The Chagos Deal still has legs.

    The previous PM (Pravind Jugnauth), fresh from only winning 2 out 60 seats has now been banned from leaving the country. On alleged wire tapping. The CEO of Mauritius Telecom stated that he had given approval for listening devices to be installed. Discussions with British High Commissioner had already appeared online.

    Who knows where this ends up, especially if Trump intercedes.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,264

    Aggregate Result of the 121 Council By-Elections (for 123 Seats) Since the 2024 General Election after last nights results:

    LAB: 41 (-20)
    CON: 39 (+16)
    LDM: 19 (+1)
    GRN: 8 (+3)
    IND: 6 (-2)
    SNP: 4 (-1)
    RFM: 3 (+3)

    I wish SKS fans would explain this
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,308
    kinabalu said:

    Has the apology from Starmer only compounded the original error? How does he put the fire out now?

    He could use his pint of Cobra...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295

    ydoethur said:

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    They will be crowing about this like an old speckled hen.
    Nah, they'll just complain he's so stupid he is practically kormatose.
    Still trying to curry favour with your puns?
    This discussion is surely going to end quite spicy.
    It's getting poisonous. The whole thing is like rice in acid.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,308

    Leon said:

    Ooh. I’ve just been invited to the Faroe Isles

    Highest cliffs in the world?! Tick!

    There’s a great restaurant there - a 4 table bothy above someone’s house
    Our ship had a new Captain who was clueless and got the anchor caught under an important undersea cable in Faroes
    Is that analogous of Starmer?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,308

    Aggregate Result of the 121 Council By-Elections (for 123 Seats) Since the 2024 General Election after last nights results:

    LAB: 41 (-20)
    CON: 39 (+16)
    LDM: 19 (+1)
    GRN: 8 (+3)
    IND: 6 (-2)
    SNP: 4 (-1)
    RFM: 3 (+3)

    I wish SKS fans would explain this
    Don't worry Casino, there's always swingback.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,476

    Aggregate Result of the 121 Council By-Elections (for 123 Seats) Since the 2024 General Election after last nights results:

    LAB: 41 (-20)
    CON: 39 (+16)
    LDM: 19 (+1)
    GRN: 8 (+3)
    IND: 6 (-2)
    SNP: 4 (-1)
    RFM: 3 (+3)

    I wish SKS fans would explain this
    Political reality - aka the shit/fan interface.

    Not remotely surprising either.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,902

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    BigG. has finally found his "gotcha"!
    Are Northumbria police on the case yet?
    I've already emailed Ric Holden and Ivo Delingpole, so watch this space...
    You need to grow up

    And I would add respect the Diwali community
    Diwali community?

    It’s very disrespectful to call them that, like calling Christians the Easter community.
    The Christmas gang ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,489

    Aggregate Result of the 121 Council By-Elections (for 123 Seats) Since the 2024 General Election after last nights results:

    LAB: 41 (-20)
    CON: 39 (+16)
    LDM: 19 (+1)
    GRN: 8 (+3)
    IND: 6 (-2)
    SNP: 4 (-1)
    RFM: 3 (+3)

    I wish SKS fans would explain this
    Unwind from previous electoral highs.

    I have a piece on this coming up.

    For example Blair lost the following amount of councillors in

    1998 - 88
    1999 - 1,150
    2000 - 574
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,953
    dixiedean said:

    Not sure why anyone is at all surprised by these Trump picks.
    He's been touring the country for months saying what he would do. And half the votes cast were for him.
    So bewilderment and outrage are two of the least appropriate responses.

    Ummm..

    @kaitlancollins
    ·
    Oct 31
    Trump transition co-chair Howard Lutnick — in charge of helping staff the gov if he wins — says he had a 2.5 hour meeting with RFK Jr. who talked about pulling (safe and proven) vaccines from the market. Lutnick says RFK will not be in charge of HHS, despite what RFK said.

    https://x.com/mattmfm/status/1857164580914393521

    I think it's OK to be bewildered and outraged by this one...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,001
    Nigelb said:

    Oh God, PB’s going to get spammed senseless again about Starmer having booze again isn’t it?

    BigG. has finally found his "gotcha"!
    Are Northumbria police on the case yet?
    I've already emailed Ric Holden and Ivo Delingpole, so watch this space...
    You need to grow up

    And I would add respect the Diwali community
    Diwali community?

    It’s very disrespectful to call them that, like calling Christians the Easter community.
    The Christmas gang ?
    The Bethlehem Postocders?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,058

    The Chagos Deal still has legs.

    The previous PM (Pravind Jugnauth), fresh from only winning 2 out 60 seats has now been banned from leaving the country. On alleged wire tapping. The CEO of Mauritius Telecom stated that he had given approval for listening devices to be installed. Discussions with British High Commissioner had already appeared online.

    Who knows where this ends up, especially if Trump intercedes.

    Trump probably thinks Chagos is a burger topping.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,902
    As predicted, Gaetz is drawing the bulk of the flak.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4991658-gaetz-nomination-senate-republicans/

    He won't go down without a fight.
    It's designed to flush out Trump's determined opponents in the Senate - who will then be duly targeted.
    Collins and Murkowski, as not infrequent rebels, will probably be OK. The next couple of potential swing votes will have a very tough time of it, if the rest of their GOP colleagues fold.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,308
    edited 1:13PM
    ...

    Aggregate Result of the 121 Council By-Elections (for 123 Seats) Since the 2024 General Election after last nights results:

    LAB: 41 (-20)
    CON: 39 (+16)
    LDM: 19 (+1)
    GRN: 8 (+3)
    IND: 6 (-2)
    SNP: 4 (-1)
    RFM: 3 (+3)

    I wish SKS fans would explain this
    Unwind from previous electoral highs.

    I have a piece on this coming up.

    For example Blair lost the following amount of councillors in

    1998 - 88
    1999 - 1,150
    2000 - 574
    Blair will never make a second term.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,956

    Leon said:

    Ooh. I’ve just been invited to the Faroe Isles

    Highest cliffs in the world?! Tick!

    There’s a great restaurant there - a 4 table bothy above someone’s house
    Our ship had a new Captain who was clueless and got the anchor caught under an important undersea cable in Faroes
    Is that analogous of Starmer?
    Of course not. Not everything is politics
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,337

    Meat and alcohol served in Downing Street in the celebration of Diwali event

    Downing Street has issued an apology

    Why?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,734

    The Chagos Deal still has legs.

    The previous PM (Pravind Jugnauth), fresh from only winning 2 out 60 seats has now been banned from leaving the country. On alleged wire tapping. The CEO of Mauritius Telecom stated that he had given approval for listening devices to be installed. Discussions with British High Commissioner had already appeared online.

    Who knows where this ends up, especially if Trump intercedes.

    It will end up with no-one giving a damn, which is pretty much the situation now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,902
    Scott_xP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Not sure why anyone is at all surprised by these Trump picks.
    He's been touring the country for months saying what he would do. And half the votes cast were for him.
    So bewilderment and outrage are two of the least appropriate responses.

    Ummm..

    @kaitlancollins
    ·
    Oct 31
    Trump transition co-chair Howard Lutnick — in charge of helping staff the gov if he wins — says he had a 2.5 hour meeting with RFK Jr. who talked about pulling (safe and proven) vaccines from the market. Lutnick says RFK will not be in charge of HHS, despite what RFK said.

    https://x.com/mattmfm/status/1857164580914393521

    I think it's OK to be bewildered and outraged by this one...
    Outrage is absolutely justified.
    None of this should be a massive surprise, though.

    It was quite possible that Trump might have decided to govern more rationally, but it was never overwhelmingly likely.
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