Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Guys, I love you all to bits but this sounds plausible and matches Nevada. Can somebody provide rebuttal that doesn't revolve around her characteristics?
77.3m early votes and the split is Women 53%, Men 44%, Unknown 3%
Does anyone else on here think this is the most important election of their lifetime?
not really
What would you say was?
errrm - brexit probably
That was a referendum not an election...
yes ok but tried to expand my post as to why I dont worry about this US election . I am pretty right wing but never liked Brexit and voted against it - If i was an american I would vote for Trump but I am not and I dont really care as I think Trump would be good to defuse Ukraine better than Harris could
Would that be crazier than some election rules you've seen? Voting at a precise non hour minute and closing at a precise non hour minute is what the founders intended!
What's that town of like 6 people that votes at midnight? I think there were all Biden in 2020, they should vote Trump this time just to freak people out.
Would that be crazier than some election rules you've seen? Voting at a precise non hour minute and closing at a precise non hour minute is what the founders intended!
What's that town of like 6 people that votes at midnight? I think there were all Biden in 2020, they should vote Trump this time just to freak people out.
As usual in a country of the psephologically incompetent there will be rafts of applications to courts to allow people standing in line to vote past the closing time. Its just a part of what might be generously described as a system.
Does anyone else on here think this is the most important election of their lifetime?
Yes, barring Brexit as a different thing, because (like Brexit) it will have an impact that lasts for many years. What happens in Ukraine now might shape the next century.
As many have said, I wouldn’t usually care who the U.S. President was, because foreign policy used to be consistent. Trump changes all that. But then if he has permanently infected the republicans then maybe this election isn’t that important became his mob will win one day soon, so the impact is inevitable.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Guys, I love you all to bits but this sounds plausible and matches Nevada. Can somebody provide rebuttal that doesn't revolve around her characteristics?
Why does it need rebuttal?
It's from a Republican Congresswoman. Is it likely that she has a Democrat consultant friend who told her that it was OK for her to share the view that Democrats think they're doomed?
Remember: nobody knows anything.
It needs rebuttal because I am in a train back from That London, I'm a bit drunk, most of me hurts, I haven't got any painkillers and I've got my arse hanging out to the tune of £1k. Rebut me: fact me until I fart ( if you get the Day Today reference)
> note that Baltimore City is NOT included in Baltimore County; totally separate jurisdictions same as St Louis City and County
> however also note that Phildephia City IS the same thing as Philadelphia County; ditto for San Fransico City & County, and also City of New Orleans and Orleans Parish.
The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
A week to 10 days ago it looked like Trump had it won to me. But he's been tired, low wattage, even more incoherent to the point of almost incomprehensible and Harris has finished incredibly strongly. Now I really don't know. Has it tipped back enough? I hope so.
Why in the country that invented drive-in fastfood do you still have to queue for hours to vote??
Bizarro.
Oh how I am (not) looking forward to the Nevada counts where we’ll go 12 hours at a time to get an update which will reveal something like 204 new votes.
The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
A week to 10 days ago it looked like Trump had it won to me. But he's been tired, low wattage, even more incoherent to the point of almost incomprehensible and Harris has finished incredibly strongly. Now I really don't know. Has it tipped back enough? I hope so.
Harris needs to rely on late breakers coming her way. That makes me nervous, but hopefully means she has a better shot than some suggest.
skybet still holding the 5/1 on Harris winning Wisconsin by more than 4% -- GET ON - this is the most important bet this election even if not the most important election (IMHO ) . Should be evens at most
The concept of "high-information voters" is typically defined as people with a relatively high level of political knowledge, which suggests that unlike "low-information voters" they vote based on thinking for themselves about the issues and weighting the pros and cons of each position on the merits, but I think the main effect of their greater political knowledge is that it allows them to more reliably pick cues about the partisan implications of political ideas to make sure they have a combination of views that is aligned with whatever their side is, if only because the bar for counting as a "high-information voter" is still quite low and in particular the level of knowledge that most "high-information voters" have is still insufficient to think seriously about complex policy issues. https://nitter.poast.org/phl43/status/1853472722166165756#m
I have been voting in elections for 60 years. I have voted in five different states. The longest I ever had to wait in line to vote was about 2 minutes. (It was kind of fun voting in Chicago way back when. They used voting machines, which had a lever that allowed you to vote a straight party vote for all the offices. I never used it, but it was fun to look at.)
Since SSI2 is here, perhaps he can provide another data point:
The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
A week to 10 days ago it looked like Trump had it won to me. But he's been tired, low wattage, even more incoherent to the point of almost incomprehensible and Harris has finished incredibly strongly. Now I really don't know. Has it tipped back enough? I hope so.
Harris needs to rely on late breakers coming her way. That makes me nervous, but hopefully means she has a better shot than some suggest.
Should he win, then based on the last few speeches he is going to make late stage Biden look coherent and composed.
Google's automatic AI information is making mistakes.
I typed "Maryland 2016 population". It answered: "The population of Maryland in 2016 was 616,958 in the city of Baltimore."
That figure certainly isn't the population of Maryland in 2016, and looks more like the figure for Baltimore itself.
The difference with you and the AI true believers is that you are capable of using your own judgement as a check and balance on the drivel it chucks out daily.
I used Google's AI and similar competitors like Perplexity to run a search on myself. It was startlingly inaccurate about almost everything. Full gell-mann amnesia in effect for those who still trust it.
The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
A week to 10 days ago it looked like Trump had it won to me. But he's been tired, low wattage, even more incoherent to the point of almost incomprehensible and Harris has finished incredibly strongly. Now I really don't know. Has it tipped back enough? I hope so.
Harris needs to rely on late breakers coming her way. That makes me nervous, but hopefully means she has a better shot than some suggest.
Should he win, then based on the last few speeches he is going to make late stage Biden look coherent and composed.
Yes - I know Trump's, er, uniqueness, is baked into things with supporters and haters alike so it still doesn't seem to get attention outside the internet, but he really is much more incoherent than he used to be.
He may well be more coherent if President, because he's probably extremely tired, and can rest more when in office and let JD handle things.
Friendly reminder that from now until Wednesday, we are living in the metaphorical equivalent of an airport lounge. Calories don't count. Money doesn't matter. No one will judge you for having a beer at 10am.
Scott- that is one of my greatest pleasures- downing an early morning pint in a departure lounge..it feels really naughty, but heckers that pint goes down well....
The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
A week to 10 days ago it looked like Trump had it won to me. But he's been tired, low wattage, even more incoherent to the point of almost incomprehensible and Harris has finished incredibly strongly. Now I really don't know. Has it tipped back enough? I hope so.
I thought he'd done it after he nearly got shot. Then he seemed to chuck it all away with his three hour rally speeches, which, whilst impressive in a sheer endurance way, I can't imagine wanting to sit through. His debate performance was fairly shit also. But I'd say he's finished strong. Garbage truck, Rogan, hi viz, Macdonalds, all quite good. If he'd gone from being shot straight to the Macdonalds stunt they'd have practically had to hand him the White House keys there and then.
The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
A week to 10 days ago it looked like Trump had it won to me. But he's been tired, low wattage, even more incoherent to the point of almost incomprehensible and Harris has finished incredibly strongly. Now I really don't know. Has it tipped back enough? I hope so.
Harris needs to rely on late breakers coming her way. That makes me nervous, but hopefully means she has a better shot than some suggest.
Should he win, then based on the last few speeches he is going to make late stage Biden look coherent and composed.
Yes - I know Trump's, er, uniqueness, is baked into things with supporters and haters alike so it still doesn't seem to get attention outside the internet, but he really is much more incoherent than he used to be.
He may well be more coherent if President, because he's probably extremely tired, and can rest more when in office and let JD handle things.
All of the ads that I had to sit through during the NFL games yesterday had the "I approve this message" tag, but it was very Conneryesque, "meshage"
The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
A week to 10 days ago it looked like Trump had it won to me. But he's been tired, low wattage, even more incoherent to the point of almost incomprehensible and Harris has finished incredibly strongly. Now I really don't know. Has it tipped back enough? I hope so.
Harris needs to rely on late breakers coming her way. That makes me nervous, but hopefully means she has a better shot than some suggest.
It is indeed scary. What sort of f*ckwit hasn't had a clear view of this election until now? The F*ckwits who are going to choose the next POTUS, that's who.
The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
A week to 10 days ago it looked like Trump had it won to me. But he's been tired, low wattage, even more incoherent to the point of almost incomprehensible and Harris has finished incredibly strongly. Now I really don't know. Has it tipped back enough? I hope so.
I thought he'd done it after he nearly got shot. Then he seemed to chuck it all away with his three hour rally speeches, which, whilst impressive in a sheer endurance way, I can't imagine wanting to sit through. His debate performance was fairly shit also. But I'd say he's finished strong. Garbage truck, Rogan, hi viz, Macdonalds, all quite good. If he'd gone from being shot straight to the Macdonalds stunt they'd have practically had to hand him the White House keys there and then.
Why in the country that invented drive-in fastfood do you still have to queue for hours to vote??
Bizarro.
A disgrace. And the number of polling stations that are impossible to walk to (at least legally).
I had a project to map the UK's polling stations, population density and walking distances but I'm not very good at GIS so have given up on it.
If the polling station locations are available then that shouldn't be _too_ hard.
I think you'd have to use OpenStreetMap to do the routing if you want actual walking distance?
US elections always remind me of how well ours actually work, however many arguments we might have over systems.
We also get to watch the High Sheriff in a daft hat.
I think a lot of what is wrong with American politics can be traced back to the fact that neither Harris nor Trump has to stand there next to Count Binface while a result comes through, and treat him as an equal.
The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
A week to 10 days ago it looked like Trump had it won to me. But he's been tired, low wattage, even more incoherent to the point of almost incomprehensible and Harris has finished incredibly strongly. Now I really don't know. Has it tipped back enough? I hope so.
Trump knows that he's lost. He's just going through the motions.
The concept of "high-information voters" is typically defined as people with a relatively high level of political knowledge, which suggests that unlike "low-information voters" they vote based on thinking for themselves about the issues and weighting the pros and cons of each position on the merits, but I think the main effect of their greater political knowledge is that it allows them to more reliably pick cues about the partisan implications of political ideas to make sure they have a combination of views that is aligned with whatever their side is, if only because the bar for counting as a "high-information voter" is still quite low and in particular the level of knowledge that most "high-information voters" have is still insufficient to think seriously about complex policy issues. https://nitter.poast.org/phl43/status/1853472722166165756#m
It just means they’ve heard a bit about the candidates. That’s about it.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Guys, I love you all to bits but this sounds plausible and matches Nevada. Can somebody provide rebuttal that doesn't revolve around her characteristics?
77.3m early votes and the split is Women 53%, Men 44%, Unknown 3%
The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
A week to 10 days ago it looked like Trump had it won to me. But he's been tired, low wattage, even more incoherent to the point of almost incomprehensible and Harris has finished incredibly strongly. Now I really don't know. Has it tipped back enough? I hope so.
Yes, I would certainly have been with you there David. But - as you say - the sheer difference in body language from the two candidates is quite startling. And body language is hard to fake. Harris is glowing. Does she think she’s won?
But I'd say he's finished strong. Garbage truck, Rogan, hi viz, Macdonalds, all quite good. If he'd gone from being shot straight to the Macdonalds stunt they'd have practically had to hand him the White House keys there and then.
He very nearly face planted trying to get in the truck
Why in the country that invented drive-in fastfood do you still have to queue for hours to vote??
Bizarro.
A disgrace. And the number of polling stations that are impossible to walk to (at least legally).
I had a project to map the UK's polling stations, population density and walking distances but I'm not very good at GIS so have given up on it.
If the polling station locations are available then that shouldn't be _too_ hard.
I think you'd have to use OpenStreetMap to do the routing if you want actual walking distance?
US elections always remind me of how well ours actually work, however many arguments we might have over systems.
We also get to watch the High Sheriff in a daft hat.
I think a lot of what is wrong with American politics can be traced back to the fact that neither Harris nor Trump has to stand there next to Count Binface while a result comes through, and treat him as an equal.
Binface is less of a parody character than Trump. You couldn't make Trump up.
Would that be crazier than some election rules you've seen? Voting at a precise non hour minute and closing at a precise non hour minute is what the founders intended!
What's that town of like 6 people that votes at midnight? I think there were all Biden in 2020, they should vote Trump this time just to freak people out.
As usual in a country of the psephologically incompetent there will be rafts of applications to courts to allow people standing in line to vote past the closing time. Its just a part of what might be generously described as a system.
In most of USA, does NOT require court action "to allow people standing in line to vote past closing time". State laws generall provide, that IF a person is physically in line to vote at a polling place at deadline, they can vote, presuming they meet other requirements.
Often termed being in "the chute"; generally at deadline time, poll workers will go and stand at the end of whatever line there is, with late-commers ineligible to join the line.
Here In WA, that's part of the procedure for closing up official ballot boxes; election workers make annoucements starting 5min before that box will be closed at 8pm (determined by official time kept by workers) and ballots presented by late-commers are collected but NOT put into the box - and also NOT counted.
What your thinking of, I think, is when for whatever reason (maybe polls didn't open on time in the morning, or were shut down during the day) judges order that the actual deadline time be extended, say for an extra hour or whatever.
The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
A week to 10 days ago it looked like Trump had it won to me. But he's been tired, low wattage, even more incoherent to the point of almost incomprehensible and Harris has finished incredibly strongly. Now I really don't know. Has it tipped back enough? I hope so.
I thought he'd done it after he nearly got shot. Then he seemed to chuck it all away with his three hour rally speeches, which, whilst impressive in a sheer endurance way, I can't imagine wanting to sit through. His debate performance was fairly shit also. But I'd say he's finished strong. Garbage truck, Rogan, hi viz, Macdonalds, all quite good. If he'd gone from being shot straight to the Macdonalds stunt they'd have practically had to hand him the White House keys there and then.
I thought the garbage truck thing was, well, rubbish. It was aimed at Biden who is (a) gaga and (b) not running. The Macdonalds thing was better. But 2024 Trump is a pale shadow of 2016 Trump who was sharp and funny, if obnoxious. I think although he by and large fought his way to a draw those court cases took a lot out of him.
Without sounding hyperbolic, tomorrow feels like the most consequential election in my lifetime..and I say this as someone who had to make life changing decisions following the Brexit vote...
if Trump wins, I'm done with politics. If Harris wins, then the world will feel that much more a better place...and hopefully, the Republicans can choose someone next time who doesn't scare the living shit out of me...
Why in the country that invented drive-in fastfood do you still have to queue for hours to vote??
Bizarro.
I think a big part of it is how many things there are to vote for - so for most UK elecs is a handful at most.
RCS said in LA it was 40 or so things to vote on, my guess is that most people voting in most states it's at least 20 - national, state, local, referenda, plus a lot more elected offices than in many countries.
A US equivalent of UK GE24 would be the US House, and nothing else.
Would that be crazier than some election rules you've seen? Voting at a precise non hour minute and closing at a precise non hour minute is what the founders intended!
What's that town of like 6 people that votes at midnight? I think there were all Biden in 2020, they should vote Trump this time just to freak people out.
As usual in a country of the psephologically incompetent there will be rafts of applications to courts to allow people standing in line to vote past the closing time. Its just a part of what might be generously described as a system.
In most of USA, does NOT require court action "to allow people standing in line to vote past closing time". State laws generall provide, that IF a person is physically in line to vote at a polling place at deadline, they can vote, presuming they meet other requirements.
Often termed being in "the chute"; generally at deadline time, poll workers will go and stand at the end of whatever line there is, with late-commers ineligible to join the line.
Here In WA, that's part of the procedure for closing up official ballot boxes; election workers make annoucements starting 5min before that box will be closed at 8pm (determined by official time kept by workers) and ballots presented by late-commers are collected but NOT put into the box - and also NOT counted.
What your thinking of, I think, is when for whatever reason (maybe polls didn't open on time in the morning, or were shut down during the day) judges order that the actual deadline time be extended, say for an extra hour or whatever.
I find it astonishing how early they close the polling stations in general. If they closed at 7pm here I would either need a postal vote or to get up *shudder* early.
The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
A week to 10 days ago it looked like Trump had it won to me. But he's been tired, low wattage, even more incoherent to the point of almost incomprehensible and Harris has finished incredibly strongly. Now I really don't know. Has it tipped back enough? I hope so.
I thought he'd done it after he nearly got shot. Then he seemed to chuck it all away with his three hour rally speeches, which, whilst impressive in a sheer endurance way, I can't imagine wanting to sit through. His debate performance was fairly shit also. But I'd say he's finished strong. Garbage truck, Rogan, hi viz, Macdonalds, all quite good. If he'd gone from being shot straight to the Macdonalds stunt they'd have practically had to hand him the White House keys there and then.
The McDonalds stunt was a good one. I see a lot of anti-Trump content and they certainly attacked it as being a stunt, but the tone was definitely different from the usual 'look at this horror show' type comments.
The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
A week to 10 days ago it looked like Trump had it won to me. But he's been tired, low wattage, even more incoherent to the point of almost incomprehensible and Harris has finished incredibly strongly. Now I really don't know. Has it tipped back enough? I hope so.
Yes, I would certainly have been with you there David. But - as you say - the sheer difference in body language from the two candidates is quite startling. And body language is hard to fake. Harris is glowing. Does she think she’s won?
Hmm.
Her appearance on SNL was one of the highlights of the campaign. It beamed confidence.
The concept of "high-information voters" is typically defined as people with a relatively high level of political knowledge, which suggests that unlike "low-information voters" they vote based on thinking for themselves about the issues and weighting the pros and cons of each position on the merits, but I think the main effect of their greater political knowledge is that it allows them to more reliably pick cues about the partisan implications of political ideas to make sure they have a combination of views that is aligned with whatever their side is, if only because the bar for counting as a "high-information voter" is still quite low and in particular the level of knowledge that most "high-information voters" have is still insufficient to think seriously about complex policy issues. https://nitter.poast.org/phl43/status/1853472722166165756#m
It just means they’ve heard a bit about the candidates. That’s about it.
Which does rather say something about the general level of democratic engagement!
Would that be crazier than some election rules you've seen? Voting at a precise non hour minute and closing at a precise non hour minute is what the founders intended!
What's that town of like 6 people that votes at midnight? I think there were all Biden in 2020, they should vote Trump this time just to freak people out.
As usual in a country of the psephologically incompetent there will be rafts of applications to courts to allow people standing in line to vote past the closing time. Its just a part of what might be generously described as a system.
In most of USA, does NOT require court action "to allow people standing in line to vote past closing time". State laws generall provide, that IF a person is physically in line to vote at a polling place at deadline, they can vote, presuming they meet other requirements.
Often termed being in "the chute"; generally at deadline time, poll workers will go and stand at the end of whatever line there is, with late-commers ineligible to join the line.
Here In WA, that's part of the procedure for closing up official ballot boxes; election workers make annoucements starting 5min before that box will be closed at 8pm (determined by official time kept by workers) and ballots presented by late-commers are collected but NOT put into the box - and also NOT counted.
What your thinking of, I think, is when for whatever reason (maybe polls didn't open on time in the morning, or were shut down during the day) judges order that the actual deadline time be extended, say for an extra hour or whatever.
I find it astonishing how early they close the polling stations in general. If they closed at 7pm here I would either need a postal vote or to get up *shudder* early.
The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
A week to 10 days ago it looked like Trump had it won to me. But he's been tired, low wattage, even more incoherent to the point of almost incomprehensible and Harris has finished incredibly strongly. Now I really don't know. Has it tipped back enough? I hope so.
I thought he'd done it after he nearly got shot. Then he seemed to chuck it all away with his three hour rally speeches, which, whilst impressive in a sheer endurance way, I can't imagine wanting to sit through. His debate performance was fairly shit also. But I'd say he's finished strong. Garbage truck, Rogan, hi viz, Macdonalds, all quite good. If he'd gone from being shot straight to the Macdonalds stunt they'd have practically had to hand him the White House keys there and then.
I thought the garbage truck thing was, well, rubbish. It was aimed at Biden who is (a) gaga and (b) not running. The Macdonalds thing was better. But 2024 Trump is a pale shadow of 2016 Trump who was sharp and funny, if obnoxious. I think although he by and large fought his way to a draw those court cases took a lot out of him.
CNN actually interviewed some PA Latino voters who thought he was still taking the piss out of Puerto Rico, like the racist comic guy.
Would that be crazier than some election rules you've seen? Voting at a precise non hour minute and closing at a precise non hour minute is what the founders intended!
What's that town of like 6 people that votes at midnight? I think there were all Biden in 2020, they should vote Trump this time just to freak people out.
As usual in a country of the psephologically incompetent there will be rafts of applications to courts to allow people standing in line to vote past the closing time. Its just a part of what might be generously described as a system.
In most of USA, does NOT require court action "to allow people standing in line to vote past closing time". State laws generall provide, that IF a person is physically in line to vote at a polling place at deadline, they can vote, presuming they meet other requirements.
Often termed being in "the chute"; generally at deadline time, poll workers will go and stand at the end of whatever line there is, with late-commers ineligible to join the line.
Here In WA, that's part of the procedure for closing up official ballot boxes; election workers make annoucements starting 5min before that box will be closed at 8pm (determined by official time kept by workers) and ballots presented by late-commers are collected but NOT put into the box - and also NOT counted.
What your thinking of, I think, is when for whatever reason (maybe polls didn't open on time in the morning, or were shut down during the day) judges order that the actual deadline time be extended, say for an extra hour or whatever.
I find it astonishing how early they close the polling stations in general. If they closed at 7pm here I would either need a postal vote or to get up *shudder* early.
Indonesia is 1pm on a weekday IIRC
- I think IN & KY might be the next earliest weekday poll closes of all the elections I've followed.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Guys, I love you all to bits but this sounds plausible and matches Nevada. Can somebody provide rebuttal that doesn't revolve around her characteristics?
That it seems to suggest the Democrats have no chance, and know it, in every swing state (merely 'hoping' they win Michigan).
The possibility of one side or the other sweeping all the swing states has been raised as possible, but the idea that it is a well know fact among Democrat consultants such that no one genuinely thinks they can win any of them does not strike me as very plausible. Even if it happens I don't buy that 'nobody' thinks they might win even a single one.
I discount nothing, but the presented story is not very plausible in itself - notably I responded with no knowledge of who the person was and judged it on its own merits, accepting the possibility it was right.
This is it. It has a confidence that just isn't plausible and doesn't chime with almost everything else we're hearing. Which is that it's either incredibly close or there are reasons for both sides to believe things are favouring them that polling isn't showing up.
It might turn out to correlate with the actual result. But it's useless as a predictive data point as it contradicts everything else we know - even from those predicting a Trump win, who admit things are close but believe he will get over the line. And it comes from a source we have every reason to believe is untrustworthy.
I'd also add that of the Dems were really in such a deep hole they were despairingly giving up, we'd be hearing it from far more reliable sources given party grandees aren't exactly reticent about crititicising those in rival factions.
Why in the country that invented drive-in fastfood do you still have to queue for hours to vote??
Bizarro.
A disgrace. And the number of polling stations that are impossible to walk to (at least legally).
I had a project to map the UK's polling stations, population density and walking distances but I'm not very good at GIS so have given up on it.
If the polling station locations are available then that shouldn't be _too_ hard.
I think you'd have to use OpenStreetMap to do the routing if you want actual walking distance?
US elections always remind me of how well ours actually work, however many arguments we might have over systems.
We also get to watch the High Sheriff in a daft hat.
I think a lot of what is wrong with American politics can be traced back to the fact that neither Harris nor Trump has to stand there next to Count Binface while a result comes through, and treat him as an equal.
Agreed. Too divorced from the grubby, mundane side of politics, they're patricians and generals never moving about in the masses, surrounded by hundreds of professionals at all times.
Stuck in a leaky leisure centre in the middle of nowhere at 4am next to a dude with a bin on his head? Now that's democracy.
You may be the most powerful politician in the country, but you still have to put on a fake grin next to joke candidates and also the Liberal Democrats, that has to be humbling.
The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
A week to 10 days ago it looked like Trump had it won to me. But he's been tired, low wattage, even more incoherent to the point of almost incomprehensible and Harris has finished incredibly strongly. Now I really don't know. Has it tipped back enough? I hope so.
Yes, I would certainly have been with you there David. But - as you say - the sheer difference in body language from the two candidates is quite startling. And body language is hard to fake. Harris is glowing. Does she think she’s won?
Hmm.
Her appearance on SNL was one of the highlights of the campaign. It beamed confidence.
The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
A week to 10 days ago it looked like Trump had it won to me. But he's been tired, low wattage, even more incoherent to the point of almost incomprehensible and Harris has finished incredibly strongly. Now I really don't know. Has it tipped back enough? I hope so.
I thought he'd done it after he nearly got shot. Then he seemed to chuck it all away with his three hour rally speeches, which, whilst impressive in a sheer endurance way, I can't imagine wanting to sit through. His debate performance was fairly shit also. But I'd say he's finished strong. Garbage truck, Rogan, hi viz, Macdonalds, all quite good. If he'd gone from being shot straight to the Macdonalds stunt they'd have practically had to hand him the White House keys there and then.
yes the Macdonalds stunt was clever
I think it was a good campaign tactic.
If there’s one thing the Harris campaign should have done, it was a few more of these unscripted campaign stunts (for want of a better term). Maybe not McDonalds, but something a bit more spontaneous from Harris.
I think they were too spooked that she might stumble or gaffe. In actuality, I think Harris has shown a very warm, engaging vibe throughout the campaign and it’s a pity they didn’t try and work with that more and relied on her scripts.
Without sounding hyperbolic, tomorrow feels like the most consequential election in my lifetime..and I say this as someone who had to make life changing decisions following the Brexit vote...
if Trump wins, I'm done with politics. If Harris wins, then the world will feel that much more a better place...and hopefully, the Republicans can choose someone next time who doesn't scare the living shit out of me...
My worry is that Trump has now infected his party such that even if he loses, the next Republican President (and there will be one) will still embolden Putin or his successor and trigger a global trade war.
We need him to not just lose, but lose so badly that the Democrats take the House and Senate on the coattails. And that seems inconceivable.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Guys, I love you all to bits but this sounds plausible and matches Nevada. Can somebody provide rebuttal that doesn't revolve around her characteristics?
this is the important bit 'The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great.'
Without sounding hyperbolic, tomorrow feels like the most consequential election in my lifetime..and I say this as someone who had to make life changing decisions following the Brexit vote...
if Trump wins, I'm done with politics. If Harris wins, then the world will feel that much more a better place...and hopefully, the Republicans can choose someone next time who doesn't scare the living shit out of me...
Iran is apparently holding off its attack against Israel until the election is over to avoid helping Donald Trump, so be careful what you wish for.
Why in the country that invented drive-in fastfood do you still have to queue for hours to vote??
Bizarro.
A disgrace. And the number of polling stations that are impossible to walk to (at least legally).
I had a project to map the UK's polling stations, population density and walking distances but I'm not very good at GIS so have given up on it.
If the polling station locations are available then that shouldn't be _too_ hard.
I think you'd have to use OpenStreetMap to do the routing if you want actual walking distance?
US elections always remind me of how well ours actually work, however many arguments we might have over systems.
We also get to watch the High Sheriff in a daft hat.
I think a lot of what is wrong with American politics can be traced back to the fact that neither Harris nor Trump has to stand there next to Count Binface while a result comes through, and treat him as an equal.
Easy to tell that you've NOT experienced Election Night in San Francisco . . . where I'm sure Kamala Harris rubbed shoulders with folks WAY more outre than Count Binface when she was elected (then re-elected) as District Attorney.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Guys, I love you all to bits but this sounds plausible and matches Nevada. Can somebody provide rebuttal that doesn't revolve around her characteristics?
this is the important bit 'The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great.'
A bit gnomic I think. Does that mean she is telling the truth or lying?
Without sounding hyperbolic, tomorrow feels like the most consequential election in my lifetime..and I say this as someone who had to make life changing decisions following the Brexit vote...
if Trump wins, I'm done with politics. If Harris wins, then the world will feel that much more a better place...and hopefully, the Republicans can choose someone next time who doesn't scare the living shit out of me...
Agree with all except the highlighted bit. I’d be seriously, deeply disillusioned, but hell no.
Why in the country that invented drive-in fastfood do you still have to queue for hours to vote??
Bizarro.
A disgrace. And the number of polling stations that are impossible to walk to (at least legally).
I had a project to map the UK's polling stations, population density and walking distances but I'm not very good at GIS so have given up on it.
If the polling station locations are available then that shouldn't be _too_ hard.
I think you'd have to use OpenStreetMap to do the routing if you want actual walking distance?
US elections always remind me of how well ours actually work, however many arguments we might have over systems.
We also get to watch the High Sheriff in a daft hat.
I think a lot of what is wrong with American politics can be traced back to the fact that neither Harris nor Trump has to stand there next to Count Binface while a result comes through, and treat him as an equal.
Easy to tell that you've NOT experienced Election Night in San Francisco . . . where I'm sure Kamala Harris rubbed shoulders with folks WAY more outre than Count Binface when she was elected (then re-elected) as District Attorney.
Sure, at the coalface of american democracy things are fantastic, sometimes there's so much democracy it is overwhelming (how the heck do I know what makes a good comptroller or school district person?) and you do it better than here, but once you get to Congress?
Why in the country that invented drive-in fastfood do you still have to queue for hours to vote??
Bizarro.
A disgrace. And the number of polling stations that are impossible to walk to (at least legally).
I had a project to map the UK's polling stations, population density and walking distances but I'm not very good at GIS so have given up on it.
If the polling station locations are available then that shouldn't be _too_ hard.
I think you'd have to use OpenStreetMap to do the routing if you want actual walking distance?
US elections always remind me of how well ours actually work, however many arguments we might have over systems.
We also get to watch the High Sheriff in a daft hat.
I think a lot of what is wrong with American politics can be traced back to the fact that neither Harris nor Trump has to stand there next to Count Binface while a result comes through, and treat him as an equal.
Easy to tell that you've NOT experienced Election Night in San Francisco . . . where I'm sure Kamala Harris rubbed shoulders with folks WAY more outre than Count Binface when she was elected (then re-elected) as District Attorney.
Another odd thing about American democracy. Electing chief prosecutors and senior police is just weird.
Good blog from Patrick O'Flynn deriving some humour (about all one can derive) from Sir Twat's boats reset:
Rather comically, the Sun newspaper was briefed that Starmer will declare the border crisis a ‘national security issue’, announce a crack new team of investigators, hold talks with Giorgia Meloni and vow to end ‘gimmicks’. So that’s three gimmicks followed by a promise not to indulge in gimmicks. It would take a heart of stone not to laugh.
Today, Starmer announced a doubling of the budget of his new Border Security Command to £150 million – an unprecedented investment in gold braid and epaulettes that may at least be of some benefit to the British textiles industry.
Without sounding hyperbolic, tomorrow feels like the most consequential election in my lifetime..and I say this as someone who had to make life changing decisions following the Brexit vote...
if Trump wins, I'm done with politics. If Harris wins, then the world will feel that much more a better place...and hopefully, the Republicans can choose someone next time who doesn't scare the living shit out of me...
My worry is that Trump has now infected his party such that even if he loses, the next Republican President (and there will be one) will still embolden Putin or his successor and trigger a global trade war.
We need him to not just lose, but lose so badly that the Democrats take the House and Senate on the coattails. And that seems inconceivable.
I know people might think I'm a broken record on this, but how do you see Putin taking Crimea and invading Donbas under Obama and then launching a full-scale invasion under Biden and conclude that Trump is the problem?
Would that be crazier than some election rules you've seen? Voting at a precise non hour minute and closing at a precise non hour minute is what the founders intended!
What's that town of like 6 people that votes at midnight? I think there were all Biden in 2020, they should vote Trump this time just to freak people out.
As usual in a country of the psephologically incompetent there will be rafts of applications to courts to allow people standing in line to vote past the closing time. Its just a part of what might be generously described as a system.
In most of USA, does NOT require court action "to allow people standing in line to vote past closing time". State laws generall provide, that IF a person is physically in line to vote at a polling place at deadline, they can vote, presuming they meet other requirements.
Often termed being in "the chute"; generally at deadline time, poll workers will go and stand at the end of whatever line there is, with late-commers ineligible to join the line.
Here In WA, that's part of the procedure for closing up official ballot boxes; election workers make annoucements starting 5min before that box will be closed at 8pm (determined by official time kept by workers) and ballots presented by late-commers are collected but NOT put into the box - and also NOT counted.
What your thinking of, I think, is when for whatever reason (maybe polls didn't open on time in the morning, or were shut down during the day) judges order that the actual deadline time be extended, say for an extra hour or whatever.
I find it astonishing how early they close the polling stations in general. If they closed at 7pm here I would either need a postal vote or to get up *shudder* early.
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
Guys, I love you all to bits but this sounds plausible and matches Nevada. Can somebody provide rebuttal that doesn't revolve around her characteristics?
That it seems to suggest the Democrats have no chance, and know it, in every swing state (merely 'hoping' they win Michigan).
The possibility of one side or the other sweeping all the swing states has been raised as possible, but the idea that it is a well know fact among Democrat consultants such that no one genuinely thinks they can win any of them does not strike me as very plausible. Even if it happens I don't buy that 'nobody' thinks they might win even a single one.
I discount nothing, but the presented story is not very plausible in itself - notably I responded with no knowledge of who the person was and judged it on its own merits, accepting the possibility it was right.
This is it. It has a confidence that just isn't plausible and doesn't chime with almost everything else we're hearing. Which is that it's either incredibly close or there are reasons for both sides to believe things are favouring them that polling isn't showing up.
It might turn out to correlate with the actual result. But it's useless as a predictive data point as it contradicts everything else we know - even from those predicting a Trump win, who admit things are close but believe he will get over the line. And it comes from a source we have every reason to believe is untrustworthy.
I'd also add that of the Dems were really in such a deep hole they were despairingly giving up, we'd be hearing it from far more reliable sources given party grandees aren't exactly reticent about crititicising those in rival factions.
Yes, it’s almost impossible to hide that kind of stuff. No way is the Dem campaign despondent.
Apprehensive perhaps; still unclear about the final result - but aren’t we all ?
Google's automatic AI information is making mistakes.
I typed "Maryland 2016 population". It answered: "The population of Maryland in 2016 was 616,958 in the city of Baltimore."
That figure certainly isn't the population of Maryland in 2016, and looks more like the figure for Baltimore itself.
The difference with you and the AI true believers is that you are capable of using your own judgement as a check and balance on the drivel it chucks out daily.
I used Google's AI and similar competitors like Perplexity to run a search on myself. It was startlingly inaccurate about almost everything. Full gell-mann amnesia in effect for those who still trust it.
I have otherwise rational and wisely sceptical friends who seem to treat LLM output as fact. As you say, it’s riddled with errors. The reason why is simple: it’s source material, the internet, is also riddled with errors.
The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
A week to 10 days ago it looked like Trump had it won to me. But he's been tired, low wattage, even more incoherent to the point of almost incomprehensible and Harris has finished incredibly strongly. Now I really don't know. Has it tipped back enough? I hope so.
I thought he'd done it after he nearly got shot. Then he seemed to chuck it all away with his three hour rally speeches, which, whilst impressive in a sheer endurance way, I can't imagine wanting to sit through. His debate performance was fairly shit also. But I'd say he's finished strong. Garbage truck, Rogan, hi viz, Macdonalds, all quite good. If he'd gone from being shot straight to the Macdonalds stunt they'd have practically had to hand him the White House keys there and then.
I thought the garbage truck thing was, well, rubbish. It was aimed at Biden who is (a) gaga and (b) not running. The Macdonalds thing was better. But 2024 Trump is a pale shadow of 2016 Trump who was sharp and funny, if obnoxious. I think although he by and large fought his way to a draw those court cases took a lot out of him.
CNN actually interviewed some PA Latino voters who thought he was still taking the piss out of Puerto Rico, like the racist comic guy.
It was aimed only at his base.
And Luckyguy, apparently.
It reminded me of Boris's Get Brexit Done bulldozer.
Without sounding hyperbolic, tomorrow feels like the most consequential election in my lifetime..and I say this as someone who had to make life changing decisions following the Brexit vote...
if Trump wins, I'm done with politics. If Harris wins, then the world will feel that much more a better place...and hopefully, the Republicans can choose someone next time who doesn't scare the living shit out of me...
Yes I'm a bit fed up of extinction-level-event politics too. Missiles, bombs, horrible deaths, and a leader of the free world who's a [bad word]. I want politicians who are comfy-cozy, basically decent, don't talk hard all the bloody time and just pay the bills, raise taxes, build roads, educate kids and do stuff properly. Enough of this fire and fury.
The concept of "high-information voters" is typically defined as people with a relatively high level of political knowledge, which suggests that unlike "low-information voters" they vote based on thinking for themselves about the issues and weighting the pros and cons of each position on the merits, but I think the main effect of their greater political knowledge is that it allows them to more reliably pick cues about the partisan implications of political ideas to make sure they have a combination of views that is aligned with whatever their side is, if only because the bar for counting as a "high-information voter" is still quite low and in particular the level of knowledge that most "high-information voters" have is still insufficient to think seriously about complex policy issues. https://nitter.poast.org/phl43/status/1853472722166165756#m
"Low-information voter" is an odious, pompous phrase beloved of low-social-skill voters.
> note that Baltimore City is NOT included in Baltimore County; totally separate jurisdictions same as St Louis City and County
> however also note that Phildephia City IS the same thing as Philadelphia County; ditto for San Fransico City & County, and also City of New Orleans and Orleans Parish.
And over 1 million of those people live in Montgomery County (1,058,474 in 2023).
Without sounding hyperbolic, tomorrow feels like the most consequential election in my lifetime..and I say this as someone who had to make life changing decisions following the Brexit vote...
if Trump wins, I'm done with politics. If Harris wins, then the world will feel that much more a better place...and hopefully, the Republicans can choose someone next time who doesn't scare the living shit out of me...
My worry is that Trump has now infected his party such that even if he loses, the next Republican President (and there will be one) will still embolden Putin or his successor and trigger a global trade war.
We need him to not just lose, but lose so badly that the Democrats take the House and Senate on the coattails. And that seems inconceivable.
I know people might think I'm a broken record on this, but how do you see Putin taking Crimea and invading Donbas under Obama and then launching a full-scale invasion under Biden and conclude that Trump is the problem?
Without sounding hyperbolic, tomorrow feels like the most consequential election in my lifetime..and I say this as someone who had to make life changing decisions following the Brexit vote...
if Trump wins, I'm done with politics. If Harris wins, then the world will feel that much more a better place...and hopefully, the Republicans can choose someone next time who doesn't scare the living shit out of me...
My worry is that Trump has now infected his party such that even if he loses, the next Republican President (and there will be one) will still embolden Putin or his successor and trigger a global trade war.
We need him to not just lose, but lose so badly that the Democrats take the House and Senate on the coattails. And that seems inconceivable.
I know people might think I'm a broken record on this, but how do you see Putin taking Crimea and invading Donbas under Obama and then launching a full-scale invasion under Biden and conclude that Trump is the problem?
I have SOME sympathy with the idea that Putin wouldn’t have (re)invaded Ukraine under Trump because he is unpredictable. However, the past is the past, and we can see that he will abandon Ukraine in January, and that’s a terrifying idea.
As it happens I think the UK and our non-American NATO partners should have got our act together to mitigate the impact. But we haven’t.
The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
A week to 10 days ago it looked like Trump had it won to me. But he's been tired, low wattage, even more incoherent to the point of almost incomprehensible and Harris has finished incredibly strongly. Now I really don't know. Has it tipped back enough? I hope so.
Yes, I would certainly have been with you there David. But - as you say - the sheer difference in body language from the two candidates is quite startling. And body language is hard to fake. Harris is glowing. Does she think she’s won?
Hmm.
Her appearance on SNL was one of the highlights of the campaign. It beamed confidence.
Trump is NOT happy about that
And Vance is calling her trash tonight
They look like sore losers at this point
They’ve been doing that, and worse, all campaign. The misogyny runs deep with these guys.
Without sounding hyperbolic, tomorrow feels like the most consequential election in my lifetime..and I say this as someone who had to make life changing decisions following the Brexit vote...
if Trump wins, I'm done with politics. If Harris wins, then the world will feel that much more a better place...and hopefully, the Republicans can choose someone next time who doesn't scare the living shit out of me...
My worry is that Trump has now infected his party such that even if he loses, the next Republican President (and there will be one) will still embolden Putin or his successor and trigger a global trade war.
We need him to not just lose, but lose so badly that the Democrats take the House and Senate on the coattails. And that seems inconceivable.
Trump is just a symptom not a cause. The GOP's base is now the white working class not the white upper middle class as it was 50 years ago. So whether Trump wins or loses the GOP is not going to abandon the tariffs the former want in favour of the free market policies the latter wants. Nor are they going to abandon nationalism and America First for US leadership of NATO and international bodies. If they were Haley would have won the primaries in the GOP not Trump.
Though on Putin to be fair he invaded Ukraine under Biden not under Trump even if Trump is less willing to support Zelensky than Biden and Harris are. One positive for Trump is he is at least somewhat unpredictable and foreign leaders are somewhat wary of him and what he might do
The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
A week to 10 days ago it looked like Trump had it won to me. But he's been tired, low wattage, even more incoherent to the point of almost incomprehensible and Harris has finished incredibly strongly. Now I really don't know. Has it tipped back enough? I hope so.
Yes, I would certainly have been with you there David. But - as you say - the sheer difference in body language from the two candidates is quite startling. And body language is hard to fake. Harris is glowing. Does she think she’s won?
Hmm.
Her appearance on SNL was one of the highlights of the campaign. It beamed confidence.
Trump is NOT happy about that
And Vance is calling her trash tonight
They look like sore losers at this point
They’ve been doing that, and worse, all campaign. The misogyny runs deep with these guys.
Well, what do you expect from a "pussy grabber" like Trump ?
If he loses tomorrow, hopefully Melania will finally divorce his sorry ass to hell and back! 😂
Without sounding hyperbolic, tomorrow feels like the most consequential election in my lifetime..and I say this as someone who had to make life changing decisions following the Brexit vote...
if Trump wins, I'm done with politics. If Harris wins, then the world will feel that much more a better place...and hopefully, the Republicans can choose someone next time who doesn't scare the living shit out of me...
My worry is that Trump has now infected his party such that even if he loses, the next Republican President (and there will be one) will still embolden Putin or his successor and trigger a global trade war.
We need him to not just lose, but lose so badly that the Democrats take the House and Senate on the coattails. And that seems inconceivable.
No battle is ever final, nor victory complete.
Sure a Trump/Vance victory would cast a dark shadow over the world, but it will pass.
The stars seem slowly to be aligning for Harris, as election day approaches.
A week to 10 days ago it looked like Trump had it won to me. But he's been tired, low wattage, even more incoherent to the point of almost incomprehensible and Harris has finished incredibly strongly. Now I really don't know. Has it tipped back enough? I hope so.
Yes, I would certainly have been with you there David. But - as you say - the sheer difference in body language from the two candidates is quite startling. And body language is hard to fake. Harris is glowing. Does she think she’s won?
Hmm.
Her appearance on SNL was one of the highlights of the campaign. It beamed confidence.
Trump is NOT happy about that
And Vance is calling her trash tonight
They look like sore losers at this point
They sound like sore losers even when they win, which is frustrating.
Google's automatic AI information is making mistakes.
I typed "Maryland 2016 population". It answered: "The population of Maryland in 2016 was 616,958 in the city of Baltimore."
That figure certainly isn't the population of Maryland in 2016, and looks more like the figure for Baltimore itself.
The difference with you and the AI true believers is that you are capable of using your own judgement as a check and balance on the drivel it chucks out daily.
I used Google's AI and similar competitors like Perplexity to run a search on myself. It was startlingly inaccurate about almost everything. Full gell-mann amnesia in effect for those who still trust it.
I have otherwise rational and wisely sceptical friends who seem to treat LLM output as fact. As you say, it’s riddled with errors. The reason why is simple: it’s source material, the internet, is also riddled with errors.
There was a case in NY where some laywers used chatGPT to write a court filing which cited non-existent cases, and even when this was brought to their attention they just asked chatGPT if the cases were real and it said yes, so they believed it and went back to the court (rather than, you know, looking things up themselves to check), one stating later they didn't realise it could give wrong information.
Without sounding hyperbolic, tomorrow feels like the most consequential election in my lifetime..and I say this as someone who had to make life changing decisions following the Brexit vote...
if Trump wins, I'm done with politics. If Harris wins, then the world will feel that much more a better place...and hopefully, the Republicans can choose someone next time who doesn't scare the living shit out of me...
Yes I'm a bit fed up of extinction-level-event politics too. Missiles, bombs, horrible deaths, and a leader of the free world who's a [bad word]. I want politicians who are comfy-cozy, basically decent, don't talk hard all the bloody time and just pay the bills, raise taxes, build roads, educate kids and do stuff properly. Enough of this fire and fury.
That was my faint hope with both Biden and Rishi as leaders. It's not quite worked out.
What is the PB consensus on Kemi's shadow cabinet and particularly Mel Stride as shadow chancellor?
I forget who he is 5 minutes after seeing him, so he sounds like a good choice.
I jest, but only in part - I know (from checking) that he was in the Cabinet, but my brain can never remember anything he might have said publicly, so he may be a solid pair of hands.
Comments
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote
Harris leads amongst women by 11%; Trump leads amongst men by 4%
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/u-s-presidential-contest-november-2024/
By my reckoning that's likely to put Harris well ahead regardless of party registration.
I had a project to map the UK's polling stations, population density and walking distances but I'm not very good at GIS so have given up on it.
What's that town of like 6 people that votes at midnight? I think there were all Biden in 2020, they should vote Trump this time just to freak people out.
I assume some of it is, and some of it is incompetence.
Britain’s on a “stairway to hell” under Keir Starmer, argues mining magnate.
https://www.politico.eu/article/errol-musk-elon-musk-father-britain-fascist-hell-prime-minister-keir-starmer/
As many have said, I wouldn’t usually care who the U.S. President was, because foreign policy used to be consistent. Trump changes all that. But then if he has permanently infected the republicans then maybe this election isn’t that important became his mob will win one day soon, so the impact is inevitable.
https://x.com/FilmmakerJulie/status/1853471510704312522
Oh God, the hope, the hope...
Maryland = 6,003,323
Baltimore City = 616,226
Baltimore County = 828,682
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-counties-total.html
> note that Baltimore City is NOT included in Baltimore County; totally separate jurisdictions same as St Louis City and County
> however also note that Phildephia City IS the same thing as Philadelphia County; ditto for San Fransico City & County, and also City of New Orleans and Orleans Parish.
Good times.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/By-elections_to_the_House_of_Lords
“JD Vance says Trump is fired up over death of P’Nut the Squirrel: The Elon Musk of squirrels”
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1853560884490056084
Doesn't sound like a win
The concept of "high-information voters" is typically defined as people with a relatively high level of political knowledge, which suggests that unlike "low-information voters" they vote based on thinking for themselves about the issues and weighting the pros and cons of each position on the merits, but I think the main effect of their greater political knowledge is that it allows them to more reliably pick cues about the partisan implications of political ideas to make sure they have a combination of views that is aligned with whatever their side is, if only because the bar for counting as a "high-information voter" is still quite low and in particular the level of knowledge that most "high-information voters" have is still insufficient to think seriously about complex policy issues.
https://nitter.poast.org/phl43/status/1853472722166165756#m
Since SSI2 is here, perhaps he can provide another data point:
https://www.epsilontheory.com/gell-mann-amnesia/
He may well be more coherent if President, because he's probably extremely tired, and can rest more when in office and let JD handle things.
https://x.com/boricuabc2/status/1853434436399882369?s=61
I think you'd have to use OpenStreetMap to do the routing if you want actual walking distance?
US elections always remind me of how well ours actually work, however many arguments we might have over systems.
We also get to watch the High Sheriff in a daft hat.
Didn't sound good
That’s about it.
Hmm.
And the best photo from McDonalds was this one
https://x.com/patrickwitty/status/1851991076740956553
Often termed being in "the chute"; generally at deadline time, poll workers will go and stand at the end of whatever line there is, with late-commers ineligible to join the line.
Here In WA, that's part of the procedure for closing up official ballot boxes; election workers make annoucements starting 5min before that box will be closed at 8pm (determined by official time kept by workers) and ballots presented by late-commers are collected but NOT put into the box - and also NOT counted.
What your thinking of, I think, is when for whatever reason (maybe polls didn't open on time in the morning, or were shut down during the day) judges order that the actual deadline time be extended, say for an extra hour or whatever.
if Trump wins, I'm done with politics. If Harris wins, then the world will feel that much more a better place...and hopefully, the Republicans can choose someone next time who doesn't scare the living shit out of me...
RCS said in LA it was 40 or so things to vote on, my guess is that most people voting in most states it's at least 20 - national, state, local, referenda, plus a lot more elected offices than in many countries.
A US equivalent of UK GE24 would be the US House, and nothing else.
It was aimed only at his base.
And Luckyguy, apparently.
It might turn out to correlate with the actual result. But it's useless as a predictive data point as it contradicts everything else we know - even from those predicting a Trump win, who admit things are close but believe he will get over the line. And it comes from a source we have every reason to believe is untrustworthy.
I'd also add that of the Dems were really in such a deep hole they were despairingly giving up, we'd be hearing it from far more reliable sources given party grandees aren't exactly reticent about crititicising those in rival factions.
Stuck in a leaky leisure centre in the middle of nowhere at 4am next to a dude with a bin on his head? Now that's democracy.
You may be the most powerful politician in the country, but you still have to put on a fake grin next to joke candidates and also the Liberal Democrats, that has to be humbling.
And Vance is calling her trash tonight
They look like sore losers at this point
If there’s one thing the Harris campaign should have done, it was a few more of these unscripted campaign stunts (for want of a better term). Maybe not McDonalds, but something a bit more spontaneous from Harris.
I think they were too spooked that she might stumble or gaffe. In actuality, I think Harris has shown a very warm, engaging vibe throughout the campaign and it’s a pity they didn’t try and work with that more and relied on her scripts.
We need him to not just lose, but lose so badly that the Democrats take the House and Senate on the coattails. And that seems inconceivable.
I’d be seriously, deeply disillusioned, but hell no.
On the polling, and that's all we have to go on, the election is too close to call.
So, we'll just have to wait and see...
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/starmers-plan-to-stop-the-boats-is-a-comical-gimmick/
No way is the Dem campaign despondent.
Apprehensive perhaps; still unclear about the final result - but aren’t we all ?
@Nigel_Farage
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4h
Arrived at the @realDonaldTrump Rally in Reading, Pennsylvania. 🇺🇸
ALASTAIR CAMPBELL
@campbellclaret
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3h
You can sit anywhere Nigel. It’s half full
As it happens I think the UK and our non-American NATO partners should have got our act together to mitigate the impact. But we haven’t.
The misogyny runs deep with these guys.
Though on Putin to be fair he invaded Ukraine under Biden not under Trump even if Trump is less willing to support Zelensky than Biden and Harris are. One positive for Trump is he is at least somewhat unpredictable and foreign leaders are somewhat wary of him and what he might do
If he loses tomorrow, hopefully Melania will finally divorce his sorry ass to hell and back! 😂
Sure a Trump/Vance victory would cast a dark shadow over the world, but it will pass.
I believe they kept their law licences and were given a minor fine. They had decades of experience.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12226823/NYC-lawyers-used-ChatGPT-fined-5-000-fake-submissions-aviation-injury-case.html
Am I missing something? Can any of our US correspondents explain whether fluoride is the issue of the hour in the U.S….
I jest, but only in part - I know (from checking) that he was in the Cabinet, but my brain can never remember anything he might have said publicly, so he may be a solid pair of hands.