More like 6th December on most polls, we must hope by 6th January
If Selzer is right then it wont be being held up until December.
I don't know anymore than anyone else. But pollsters underestimated Trump twice. They don't want to have been seen to do so three times. So, if Selzer is right, they may be overcompensating. Also explains the herding.
But I don't know. My hunch is worth jack shit.
One reason to be sceptical about the Selzer poll is that her numbers have historically tended to fluctuate quite a lot. In September 2020 she had Biden and Trump tied with Biden also 20 points ahead among women.
Huh? Many (indeed a cursory glance suggests most) polls considered Iowa as either leaning towards Trump or a tossup in September 2020. Quinnipiac even had Biden up 5% as late as the first week in October. Like most, Selzer (and indeed Quinnipiac who I use only as an example) moved during October towards Trump. Which may well reflect an actual shift, rather than Selzer's inaccuracy, given her final poll (48% to 41%) was closer than any other to the result (51% to 45%).
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
Travelling under water, out of sight.
I think @MoonRabbit believes moderate Republicans are quietly voting Kamala.
I don't know. The mood music is good for Kamala this critical weekend, but are we listening to the wrong song?.
Selzer is a poll of 808 people, but seems to have massively moved the markets in a vote likely to have 150 000 000 voters.
Urban dictionary has a number of alternative explanations.
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
Beware dissing John Ralston re: Nevada BEFORE the votes are counted. And likely afterwards.
Reading the tea leaves in Silver State elections is as much an art as a science; indeed more!
I would note that Nevada's early vote is - IIRC - slightly more male than female, which is consistent with a Trump victory there.
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
Travelling under water, out of sight.
I think @MoonRabbit believes moderate Republicans are quietly voting Kamala.
I don't know. The mood music is good for Kamala this critical weekend, but are we listening to the wrong song?.
Selzer is a poll of 808 people, but seems to have massively moved the markets in a vote likely to have 150 000 000 voters.
Re the Selzer poll, what it would have to implicitly suggest is that people are no longer motivated by what they think about the economy (where Trump has a lead generally) but by abortion / the threat to democracy argument (where Harris leads).
That is possible but, given what Americans think about inflation at the moment and how they view Trump's four years in office on the economic front, that is a hell of a change.
Polling on the economy has been much closer in recent weeks, some polls even putting Harris in front on key economic issues.
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
(short version - Democrats are encouraged by the early voting stats but the apparatus that won them 2020 seems to have collapsed).
You mean the Stacey Abrams GOTV?
Well, we shall see. The reality is that 75% of the vote has already happened, and women outnumber men among voters almost 1.3:1.
Now, I'm sure that the gap will narrow between now and the end of Tuesday, but I struggle to see Trump winning in Georgia if the gap is more than - say - 1.15:1.
The fascinating thing about the memo is all the references to "President" Trump yet not a single reference to President Biden. I'm no expert but I believe there can only be one POTUS at a time - now, it may be possible, even if one is no longer actually POTUS to be referred to as President but doesn't that require a "Former" in front of it so it's Former President Obama, Former President Bush, even Former President Carter so presumably Former President Trump?
I presume his acolytes, wishing to enjoy his favour and not wanting to remind him he lost in 2020, still refer to him as President Trump and sycophantic broadcasters like RSBN likewise but the rest of us need to call him for what he is, a Former President.
No, this seems to be an American quirk, where you keep your most senior title in perpetuity. For example, I've heard H Clinton referred to numerous times as "Secretary Clinton" in respect of her time as Secretary of State in the Obama administration.
Obviously, where there is potential for confusion it's not unusual for "former" to be prepended, but it's not a controversial thing. I'd make a point of calling Trump former President Trump mainly because I'm British, and it's what I'm used to, and only partly because it would annoy him.
I presumed it was because it's seen as a rank, like we continue to call some senior military officers "Major" even in retirement.
I think this applies to Bishop as well.
Yes. A bishop is a bishop in two potential ways: S/he is a member of the order of bishops in virtue of their consecration. This is, more or less indelible and is for life. They might also be Bishop of Barchester or wherever, which post is highly delible and temporary.
Most people would consider clinging on to your job title after you've retired is a bit knobbish.
(narrator: this fact has underpinned British sitcoms such as Fawlty Towers and especially Dad's Army)
One of the BBC's many irritating quirks is to refer to then-prime minister Thatcher in connection with the Falklands War, as if they don't trust their readers to realise the Blessed Margaret isn't PM any more. Though I'd cut them some slack if they mention then-prime minster Truss in reference to QEII's funeral as it threatens to become a really tricky pub quiz question for future generations.
TRUSS may yet stage a sensational return. I suspect Kemi is already looking over her shoulder, where a grimacing titan is lurking in the gloom.
Truss lost her Norfolk seat on one of the biggest swings against an incumbent in UK history, she isn't coming back unless on a Bernard Matthews Turkey ad
Even RealClearPolitics has Harris only 0.3% away from winning the election. The site has Trump ahead by that much in Pennsylvania with the overall prediction being Trump 287, Harris 251.
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
More like 6th December on most polls, we must hope by 6th January
If Selzer is right then it wont be being held up until December.
I don't know anymore than anyone else. But pollsters underestimated Trump twice. They don't want to have been seen to do so three times. So, if Selzer is right, they may be overcompensating. Also explains the herding.
But I don't know. My hunch is worth jack shit.
One reason to be sceptical about the Selzer poll is that her numbers have historically tended to fluctuate quite a lot. In September 2020 she had Biden and Trump tied with Biden also 20 points ahead among women.
Huh? Many (indeed a cursory glance suggests most) polls considered Iowa as either leaning towards Trump or a tossup in September 2020. Quinnipiac even had Biden up 5% as late as the first week in October. Like most, Selzer (and indeed Quinnipiac who I use only as an example) moved during October towards Trump. Which may well reflect an actual shift, rather than Selzer's inaccuracy, given her final poll (48% to 41%) was closer than any other to the result (51% to 45%).
It's the nature of the way she had it as a tossup in September 2020 that I think is interesting, with the same extreme gender split as this latest poll.
Even in her final poll before the 2020 election, she had Biden ahead by 9% among women when the exit poll figures you quoted had Biden only 3% up among women.
Have we all seen the video of Trump's rally where he comments how full the stadium is as the cameraman pans to empty areas and then to people walking out
Reaction Engines (the company attempting to promote the Skylon spaceplane design) has gone under.
What happened to British engineering that made it consistently fail? (Or at least the aspirational type)
The US came up with a better idea.
And a bloke on twitter implemented it better.
That wasn’t actually the better idea I was thinking of. SpaceX merely removed the biggest short/medium term potential market for them, by making conventional rockets a lot cheaper.
Full reuse of both stages of a large, two stage rocket is probably below $50m million (cost) for 100 tons to orbit. Depending on the design, might drop to $20 million.
Skylon can’t compete with those numbers. Because of the high cost of development and the high cost of its exotic engines, it can’t fly that cheaply, per ton.
SpaceX got to cheap launch first. Then used to cheap launch to vastly expand *demand* for cheap launch.
Blue Origin are now chasing the same goal (New Glenn/Kuiper)
I know. But there will be a market for the new guys if they can get it to work. MUCH cheaper and simpler than Skylon (a name which sounds like something from a Bond novel).
Skylon comes from the people who did Hotol, which some may remember.
And is I assumed named after the Skylon which was a feature of the Festival of Britain 1951, on the South Bank. It's an excellent name.
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
I never figured out "Dutch Salute"
You aren’t the only one. Dutch Salute, Guess Boris’ Weight, and Viewcode’s Betting Shop Lament are three PB wonders that I fear will ever elude me.
kle4 asked: "How did you assess each state's, er, state of civilization?" Day to day politeness, sense of community, crime rates, treatment of hitchhikers (when I was much younger). And so forth.
(Despite the root of the word, in the US you are more likely to find civilized behavior in small towns than in large cities.)
(short version - Democrats are encouraged by the early voting stats but the apparatus that won them 2020 seems to have collapsed).
You mean the Stacey Abrams GOTV?
Well, we shall see. The reality is that 75% of the vote has already happened, and women outnumber men among voters almost 1.3:1.
Now, I'm sure that the gap will narrow between now and the end of Tuesday, but I struggle to see Trump winning in Georgia if the gap is more than - say - 1.15:1.
There is a danger of repeating what happened in 2020 when it was assumed that Hispanics 'must' be voting Democrat because that was their 'natural' position - only to get nearly caught out by a large swing towards Trump in the Hispanic bloc.
Women will vote for a variety of reasons - are women voters coming out because of the abortion issue or other factors, such as fears on inflation?
Moldova is quite small but that sounds like quite a large amount of overseas votes.
Edit:
The wiki page for 2020 says 15% of votes were cast from overseas.
Obviously the Russians have been busy but it's hard to see why they maintain such a foothold in the country. According to wiki only 15% speak Russian and the population is overwhelmingly Romanian/Moldovan. Nostalgia for the Soviet Union? Or maybe strongly Orthodox and suspicious of the west.
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
Travelling under water, out of sight.
I think @MoonRabbit believes moderate Republicans are quietly voting Kamala.
I don't know. The mood music is good for Kamala this critical weekend, but are we listening to the wrong song?.
Selzer is a poll of 808 people, but seems to have massively moved the markets in a vote likely to have 150 000 000 voters.
Re the Selzer poll, what it would have to implicitly suggest is that people are no longer motivated by what they think about the economy (where Trump has a lead generally) but by abortion / the threat to democracy argument (where Harris leads).
That is possible but, given what Americans think about inflation at the moment and how they view Trump's four years in office on the economic front, that is a hell of a change.
Polling on the economy has been much closer in recent weeks, some polls even putting Harris in front on key economic issues.
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
Is it just me, or does that sound not terribly optimistic?
Could be positive spin, could be clutching at straws, could be genuine relief that late info is indeed breaking their way.
However, they'd obviously prefer to be in a place where they are not relying on an argument which is, essentially, 'despite the polling deadlock/trump advantage, we are favourites', no one wants to rely on late breakers and first time voters.
Have we all seen the video of Trump's rally where he comments how full the stadium is as the cameraman pans to empty areas and then to people walking out
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
Is it just me, or does that sound not terribly optimistic?
Could be positive spin, could be clutching at straws, could be genuine relief that late info is indeed breaking their way.
However, they'd obviously prefer to be in a place where they are not relying on an argument which is, essentially, 'despite the polling deadlock/trump advantage, we are favourites', no one wants to rely on late breakers and first time voters.
Sounds completely desperate to me. Perhaps it was meant to sound more bullish.
More like 6th December on most polls, we must hope by 6th January
If Selzer is right then it wont be being held up until December.
I don't know anymore than anyone else. But pollsters underestimated Trump twice. They don't want to have been seen to do so three times. So, if Selzer is right, they may be overcompensating. Also explains the herding.
But I don't know. My hunch is worth jack shit.
One reason to be sceptical about the Selzer poll is that her numbers have historically tended to fluctuate quite a lot. In September 2020 she had Biden and Trump tied with Biden also 20 points ahead among women.
Huh? Many (indeed a cursory glance suggests most) polls considered Iowa as either leaning towards Trump or a tossup in September 2020. Quinnipiac even had Biden up 5% as late as the first week in October. Like most, Selzer (and indeed Quinnipiac who I use only as an example) moved during October towards Trump. Which may well reflect an actual shift, rather than Selzer's inaccuracy, given her final poll (48% to 41%) was closer than any other to the result (51% to 45%).
It's the nature of the way she had it as a tossup in September 2020 that I think is interesting, with the same extreme gender split as this latest poll.
Even in her final poll before the 2020 election, she had Biden ahead by 9% among women when the exit poll figures you quoted had Biden only 3% up among women.
You initially made a claim that there is reason to be sceptical about the Selzer poll that her figures tend to fluctuate a lot. I don't see any evidence of that - look at the March 2020 Selzer poll v the final one, the September poll was broadly consistent with movement from other pollsters.
As for the lead amongst women, that's a separate point, and doesn't support the thesis you originally presented IMO.
Look, I am not as strongly tied to this Selzer poll as you are averse to it, but her track record is very strong, and you've not (to me) made a coherent claim as to why she's off this time. She might be! I think Trump will win Iowa FWIW, but the argument you make doesn't stack up.
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
Is it just me, or does that sound not terribly optimistic?
I think they are balancing projecting confidence with ensuring that nobody takes their foot off the gas. They don’t want to suggest that the election is in the bag.
Have we all seen the video of Trump's rally where he comments how full the stadium is as the cameraman pans to empty areas and then to people walking out
It's his rambling speech which I find most disturbing.
He's not the same as 4 years ago, in energy or style. He was always random, not he's rambling, he was always confusing, now he's often incoherent.
Do enough people see it? Do enough who see it care?
It's been becoming more obvious the last couple of weeks. I can see why attendance is dropping, and getting noticed as people switch on to the election in the last few weeks.
Reaction Engines (the company attempting to promote the Skylon spaceplane design) has gone under.
What happened to British engineering that made it consistently fail? (Or at least the aspirational type)
The US came up with a better idea.
And a bloke on twitter implemented it better.
That wasn’t actually the better idea I was thinking of. SpaceX merely removed the biggest short/medium term potential market for them, by making conventional rockets a lot cheaper.
Full reuse of both stages of a large, two stage rocket is probably below $50m million (cost) for 100 tons to orbit. Depending on the design, might drop to $20 million.
Skylon can’t compete with those numbers. Because of the high cost of development and the high cost of its exotic engines, it can’t fly that cheaply, per ton.
SpaceX got to cheap launch first. Then used to cheap launch to vastly expand *demand* for cheap launch.
Blue Origin are now chasing the same goal (New Glenn/Kuiper)
I know. But there will be a market for the new guys if they can get it to work. MUCH cheaper and simpler than Skylon (a name which sounds like something from a Bond novel).
Skylon comes from the people who did Hotol, which some may remember.
And is I assumed named after the Skylon which was a feature of the Festival of Britain 1951, on the South Bank. It's an excellent name.
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
Is it just me, or does that sound not terribly optimistic?
Could be positive spin, could be clutching at straws, could be genuine relief that late info is indeed breaking their way.
However, they'd obviously prefer to be in a place where they are not relying on an argument which is, essentially, 'despite the polling deadlock/trump advantage, we are favourites', no one wants to rely on late breakers and first time voters.
Every GOTV operation talks up what a close race it is, and maybe they even believe it. It's basic politics.
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
Is it just me, or does that sound not terribly optimistic?
Could be positive spin, could be clutching at straws, could be genuine relief that late info is indeed breaking their way.
However, they'd obviously prefer to be in a place where they are not relying on an argument which is, essentially, 'despite the polling deadlock/trump advantage, we are favourites', no one wants to rely on late breakers and first time voters.
Sounds completely desperate to me. Perhaps it was meant to sound more bullish.
It can be a fine line - Trump's version is to say that he would win California if votes were counted honestly, despite Republicans not winning it since 1988 and getting 34% in 2020. Bullish or desperate?
Personally whilst I hope the Harris camp are right I just don't trust campaigns to tell me what their numbers are, since they have no incentive to be honest - if the news is so good it might make people complacent so underplay it, if it is bad say differently to motivate people.
More like 6th December on most polls, we must hope by 6th January
If Selzer is right then it wont be being held up until December.
I don't know anymore than anyone else. But pollsters underestimated Trump twice. They don't want to have been seen to do so three times. So, if Selzer is right, they may be overcompensating. Also explains the herding.
But I don't know. My hunch is worth jack shit.
One reason to be sceptical about the Selzer poll is that her numbers have historically tended to fluctuate quite a lot. In September 2020 she had Biden and Trump tied with Biden also 20 points ahead among women.
Huh? Many (indeed a cursory glance suggests most) polls considered Iowa as either leaning towards Trump or a tossup in September 2020. Quinnipiac even had Biden up 5% as late as the first week in October. Like most, Selzer (and indeed Quinnipiac who I use only as an example) moved during October towards Trump. Which may well reflect an actual shift, rather than Selzer's inaccuracy, given her final poll (48% to 41%) was closer than any other to the result (51% to 45%).
It's the nature of the way she had it as a tossup in September 2020 that I think is interesting, with the same extreme gender split as this latest poll.
Even in her final poll before the 2020 election, she had Biden ahead by 9% among women when the exit poll figures you quoted had Biden only 3% up among women.
You initially made a claim that there is reason to be sceptical about the Selzer poll that her figures tend to fluctuate a lot. I don't see any evidence of that - look at the March 2020 Selzer poll v the final one, the September poll was broadly consistent with movement from other pollsters.
As for the lead amongst women, that's a separate point, and doesn't support the thesis you originally presented IMO.
Look, I am not as strongly tied to this Selzer poll as you are averse to it, but her track record is very strong, and you've not (to me) made a coherent claim as to why she's off this time. She might be! I think Trump will win Iowa FWIW, but the argument you make doesn't stack up.
I'm aware of her track record and I'm not averse to this poll. I'm just pointing out that she also had some extreme anti-Trump numbers among women in 2020 that didn't materialise, even if the headline figure on her final poll was the most accurate.
Reaction Engines (the company attempting to promote the Skylon spaceplane design) has gone under.
What happened to British engineering that made it consistently fail? (Or at least the aspirational type)
The US came up with a better idea.
And a bloke on twitter implemented it better.
That wasn’t actually the better idea I was thinking of. SpaceX merely removed the biggest short/medium term potential market for them, by making conventional rockets a lot cheaper.
Full reuse of both stages of a large, two stage rocket is probably below $50m million (cost) for 100 tons to orbit. Depending on the design, might drop to $20 million.
Skylon can’t compete with those numbers. Because of the high cost of development and the high cost of its exotic engines, it can’t fly that cheaply, per ton.
SpaceX got to cheap launch first. Then used to cheap launch to vastly expand *demand* for cheap launch.
Blue Origin are now chasing the same goal (New Glenn/Kuiper)
I know. But there will be a market for the new guys if they can get it to work. MUCH cheaper and simpler than Skylon (a name which sounds like something from a Bond novel).
Skylon comes from the people who did Hotol, which some may remember.
And is I assumed named after the Skylon which was a feature of the Festival of Britain 1951, on the South Bank. It's an excellent name.
It *was* named after the South Bank structure - similarity of the fuselage to the pylon shape…
We've lost too many landmarks from that era - what with this being destroyed to save pin money (£30k then) and the Commonwealth Institute being wrecked.
The most prominent ones I recall are probably Coventry Cathedral and the Atomium.
In terms of gender splits it’s difficult to compare early vote 2024 with 2020 because that was a unique situation.
From the data that’s provided in states that have this the vote by mail is more female than the in person early in 2024.
Michigan is running close to its 2020 gender split but there are some marked differences in comparing the Edison exit polls v current data so far in other states.
Virginia exit poll had 51 to 49 split . Current combined mail and in person early has 55.6 v 44.4 .
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
Travelling under water, out of sight.
I think @MoonRabbit believes moderate Republicans are quietly voting Kamala.
I don't know. The mood music is good for Kamala this critical weekend, but are we listening to the wrong song?.
Selzer is a poll of 808 people, but seems to have massively moved the markets in a vote likely to have 150 000 000 voters.
Thanks Foxy. Btw, because of you, I always check out the Leicester City scores in the hopes they are doing well.
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
Is it just me, or does that sound not terribly optimistic?
Could be positive spin, could be clutching at straws, could be genuine relief that late info is indeed breaking their way.
However, they'd obviously prefer to be in a place where they are not relying on an argument which is, essentially, 'despite the polling deadlock/trump advantage, we are favourites', no one wants to rely on late breakers and first time voters.
Sounds completely desperate to me. Perhaps it was meant to sound more bullish.
It can be a fine line - Trump's version is to say that he would win California if votes were counted honestly, despite Republicans not winning it since 1988 and getting 34% in 2020. Bullish or desperate?
Personally whilst I hope the Harris camp are right I just don't trust campaigns to tell me what their numbers are, since they have no incentive to be honest - if the news is so good it might make people complacent so underplay it, if it is bad say differently to motivate people.
(1) The campaigns really don't know much more than we do. (2) Even if they did know, they aren't in the business of telling you how it is, they're in the business of trying to win elections
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
Beware dissing John Ralston re: Nevada BEFORE the votes are counted. And likely afterwards.
Reading the tea leaves in Silver State elections is as much an art as a science; indeed more!
I would note that Nevada's early vote is - IIRC - slightly more male than female, which is consistent with a Trump victory there.
Not given in the state published data, which is split by party R/D/I 37.7/33.7/28.5, which is why Ralston refused to call it - the 28.5% non-affiliated is a new phenomena due to a change in the DMV defaults IIRC. That 28.5% is a huge unknown.
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
Have we all seen the video of Trump's rally where he comments how full the stadium is as the cameraman pans to empty areas and then to people walking out
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
He is presumably also freaked out by the NYTimes/Siena polls today.
Evening PB.
What are those particular polls saying.?
Final NYT/Siena battleground poll results
Arizona: Trump +4
Georgia: Harris +1
Michigan: Trump +1
Nevada: Harris +3
North Carolina: Harris +3
Pennsylvania: Even
Wisconsin: Harris +3
Slightly different from the AtlasIntel polls:
AZ - Trump +6
NV - Trump +6
GA - Trump +2
PA - Trump +2
MI - Trump +2
NC - Trump +2
WI - Trump +1
Should Trump be freaked out by the NYT polls or Harris by the AtlasIntel polls?
Trump has a point when you listen to that clip.
Iowa wasn`t even in question and suddenly a pollster comes up with a very different result to every other pollster with a completely different methodology, two days before the election. He is not the only conspiracy theorist out there.
Except there’s no “suddenly”. Selzer does the Iowa poll on a regular schedule every Presudental election, and her methods are well documented.
Conspiracy theories are built on ignorance and/or bad faith argument.
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
Travelling under water, out of sight.
I think @MoonRabbit believes moderate Republicans are quietly voting Kamala.
I don't know. The mood music is good for Kamala this critical weekend, but are we listening to the wrong song?.
Selzer is a poll of 808 people, but seems to have massively moved the markets in a vote likely to have 150 000 000 voters.
Thanks Foxy. Btw, because of you, I always check out the Leicester City scores in the hopes they are doing well.
Welcome to the roller-coaster of Leicester City. There's a high chance of relegation this year. We can score but the defence is awful so let in far too many goals. I can't see it changing under Cooper.
Have we all seen the video of Trump's rally where he comments how full the stadium is as the cameraman pans to empty areas and then to people walking out
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
The scenario in the Harris ad could play out the other way round too, with male Trump supporters "snorkelling" to avoid detection in their pro-Democrat environment.
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
Travelling under water, out of sight.
I think @MoonRabbit believes moderate Republicans are quietly voting Kamala.
I don't know. The mood music is good for Kamala this critical weekend, but are we listening to the wrong song?.
Selzer is a poll of 808 people, but seems to have massively moved the markets in a vote likely to have 150 000 000 voters.
Re the Selzer poll, what it would have to implicitly suggest is that people are no longer motivated by what they think about the economy (where Trump has a lead generally) but by abortion / the threat to democracy argument (where Harris leads).
That is possible but, given what Americans think about inflation at the moment and how they view Trump's four years in office on the economic front, that is a hell of a change.
A person can be concerned about the economy but smart enough to realize (i) the inflation had global origins and (ii) Trump would likely make everything worse.
An ambitious computer consultant is hired to detect fraud in a major bank's computer system and finds himself involved in a complex scheme of lies, blackmail and murder.
1983 and very full of of the 'what are these computer things? who are these city boys?' feelings. Reminded me little of the current media lines on "AI". Worth tracking down if you can. ("Bird of Prey" being rather more famous at the time, but rather different in tone)
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
Travelling under water, out of sight.
I think @MoonRabbit believes moderate Republicans are quietly voting Kamala.
I don't know. The mood music is good for Kamala this critical weekend, but are we listening to the wrong song?.
Selzer is a poll of 808 people, but seems to have massively moved the markets in a vote likely to have 150 000 000 voters.
Indeed, the mood - and market - correction does seem somewhat extreme.
The correction is back towards fair pricing from Trump being 2:1 favourite, so I find it hard to characterise it as extreme even if there was no reason for it.
The Iowa poll has just highlighted that the election is highly uncertain and could result in a comfortable win in either direction due to a a normal sized polling error. Maybe it's made punters realise this, but it was always true.
(short version - Democrats are encouraged by the early voting stats but the apparatus that won them 2020 seems to have collapsed).
You mean the Stacey Abrams GOTV?
Well, we shall see. The reality is that 75% of the vote has already happened, and women outnumber men among voters almost 1.3:1.
Now, I'm sure that the gap will narrow between now and the end of Tuesday, but I struggle to see Trump winning in Georgia if the gap is more than - say - 1.15:1.
There is a danger of repeating what happened in 2020 when it was assumed that Hispanics 'must' be voting Democrat because that was their 'natural' position - only to get nearly caught out by a large swing towards Trump in the Hispanic bloc.
Women will vote for a variety of reasons - are women voters coming out because of the abortion issue or other factors, such as fears on inflation?
I think it's wrong to assume the female wave against Trump is only and all about abortion. Women are also more likely to be repulsed by his vulgarity and less likely to be impressed by his bullshit.
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
Have we all seen the video of Trump's rally where he comments how full the stadium is as the cameraman pans to empty areas and then to people walking out
It's his rambling speech which I find most disturbing.
He's not the same as 4 years ago, in energy or style. He was always random, not he's rambling, he was always confusing, now he's often incoherent.
Do enough people see it? Do enough who see it care?
It's been becoming more obvious the last couple of weeks. I can see why attendance is dropping, and getting noticed as people switch on to the election in the last few weeks.
The Weave has all gone a bit Grandpa Simpson.
Trying to make a virtue of incoherence smacks of desperation.
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
The scenario in the Harris ad could play out the other way round too, with male Trump supporters "snorkelling" to avoid detection in their pro-Democrat environment.
What gives me hope for Harris is the possibility that she’s being under-estimated in the polling because the polls seem to be weighted according to gender splits in terms of voter registration in the particular state .
For example in Virginia male registrations are 47% but they’re only turning out at 44.6% at present .
The initial exit polls on Tuesday night will give a good indicator as to what the night might bring re gender .
Maybe Vance is right - after Trump has said such things a great many times, maybe he doesn't need to again?
Vance: You know something Donald Trump will never do? Donald Trump will never go out there and say that his fellow citizens should be censored or silenced for disagreeing with them. https://nitter.poast.org/Acyn/status/1853210416882823464#m
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
I never figured out "Dutch Salute"
You aren’t the only one. Dutch Salute, Guess Boris’ Weight, and Viewcode’s Betting Shop Lament are three PB wonders that I fear will ever elude me.
"Dutch Salute": theory posited by @MoonRabbit for the 2024 UK GE that voters would alternate between Labour and LibDems, creating a sine-wave effect. Since a sine wave looks like boobs, it was called a "Dutch Salute" due to (presumably) Dutch people doing this. Found to be true.
"Snorkelling": theory posited by @MoonRabbit for the 2024 US POTUS that voters would lie to the pollsters, esp older women over burdened by their husbands, but express their true allegiance in the polling booth. Plausible but as yet unproven
"Guess Boris’ Weight": following Johnson's ascension to the Premiership, he put on weight as most do. His fans said (part-seriously, part-tongue-in-cheek) that it was all muscle. and it became a meme.
"EICIPM": Acronym for "Ed Is Crap Is PM", describing the phenomenon that Ed Miliband was derided but ahead in the polls. It turned out the pools were very wrong but the derision was accurate.
"Viewcode's Betting Shop Lament": a reference to an article written by Viewcode which noted the disparity in odds proferred in physical shops vs those online and mourned the lack of politically-aware bookmakers that resulted. In terms of comments it is by far the most popular article I've written, despite the fact it required no research other than memory
"Cyclefree Limit"/"Viewcode Limit"/"Ydoethur Limit". 1200, 1500 and 1800 word-long articles, named after the people who hit them first, each superseding the other
"Golden Rule": the theory posited by @OGH that the worst poll for Labour was the correct won. Was true until it wasn't.
"OGH": "Our Genial Host", the code for Mike Smithson, the founder of PB, now sadly retired.
"Nick's Threesome": the convention that any reference to the number three must be accompanied by a reference to [redacted], a PBer who once had...well, you can work it out
"Gross approval": rule of thumb by @OGH that the gross approval figures are the best predictor of an election
"Net approval": rule of thumb by @isam that the net approval figures are the best predictor of an election
"Pineapple of Pizza/Radiohead". PB Sibboleths. It is very important to have the correct opinion, which I have sadly forgotten
Have we all seen the video of Trump's rally where he comments how full the stadium is as the cameraman pans to empty areas and then to people walking out
I almost feel bad for some of the Trump surrogates (including members of the Trump family) who try to copy him and get the same praise and love he does, some of them with one eye on the future.
Whilst I sure as hell don't share in that love, it's pretty clear that most of the Trump surrogates alos just don't match up as far as the Trump base are concerned.
Rory Stewart @RoryStewartUK · 36m Journalists would like the US race to seem as close as possible - it suits their appetite for suspense and @afneil ‘s desire to prod the establishment. But this won’t be a close race decided by a “couple of thousand votes”. He is wrong. And Kamala Harris will win.
I almost feel bad for some of the Trump surrogates (including members of the Trump family) who try to copy him and get the same praise and love he does, some of them with one eye on the future.
Whilst I sure as hell don't share in that love, it's pretty clear that most of the Trump surrogates alos just don't match up as far as the Trump base are concerned.
I don’t feel at all sorry for the Trump surrogates who are so far off the reservation they are not in the same space time reality as the rest of us.
Rory Stewart @RoryStewartUK · 36m Journalists would like the US race to seem as close as possible - it suits their appetite for suspense and @afneil ‘s desire to prod the establishment. But this won’t be a close race decided by a “couple of thousand votes”. He is wrong. And Kamala Harris will win.
Rory Stewart @RoryStewartUK · 36m Journalists would like the US race to seem as close as possible - it suits their appetite for suspense and @afneil ‘s desire to prod the establishment. But this won’t be a close race decided by a “couple of thousand votes”. He is wrong. And Kamala Harris will win.
One thing you learn from years reading pb is that the more certain the prediction, the less notice you should take of it.
In this race the uncertainty is coming straight from the polls. The polls may turn out to be bent, but if they are it's because the pollsters are confused and shit-scared of understating Trump again, not because they're trying to maximize suspense. The papers would probably be happier if the pollsters would give them some ooh's and aah's instead of an eternally unchanging coin-flip.
Rory Stewart @RoryStewartUK · 36m Journalists would like the US race to seem as close as possible - it suits their appetite for suspense and @afneil ‘s desire to prod the establishment. But this won’t be a close race decided by a “couple of thousand votes”. He is wrong. And Kamala Harris will win.
You know, it is almost as if the Loser wanted to increase crimes by illegals:
"In his first week in office, Trump signed an executive order rescinding Obama-era orders that directed the Department of Homeland Security to focus its resources on detaining and removing noncitizens who committed serious crimes. Trump said he would not “exempt classes or categories of removable aliens.” His goal, he said, was enforcement “against all removable aliens.”
What did that mean in practice? Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents were no longer required to focus on felons. They could arrest anyone caught here illegally, and they did — from pizza delivery drivers to domestic-violence victims to spouses of U.S. citizens with no criminal records. . . . From January 2017 to February 2020, the Trump administration released more than 58,000 convicted criminals into the United States, including more than 8,600 violent criminals and 306 murderers. Contrast that with the Biden administration, which reinstated enforcement priorities: Overall, the average month under Trump saw twice as many releases as under Biden." source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/30/trump-immigration-criminals-border-security/
And, unfortunately, it is possible to see why the Loser might want that increase.
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
The scenario in the Harris ad could play out the other way round too, with male Trump supporters "snorkelling" to avoid detection in their pro-Democrat environment.
Yes if you look at the final 2020 polls Biden largely matched his voteshare nationally and in swing states, as did Hillary nationally in 2016 if a little down in swing states.
Trump however was up on both his national average final rating in polls and his swing states final rating when the results came in.
There are still some voters who won't say they will be voting Trump while almost all Harris voters will tell pollsters they will be voting for her
ITV News is putting election ads for their election night show on ITV3 in commercial breaks for Poirot. Never seen anything like this before on the channel.
Rory Stewart @RoryStewartUK · 36m Journalists would like the US race to seem as close as possible - it suits their appetite for suspense and @afneil ‘s desire to prod the establishment. But this won’t be a close race decided by a “couple of thousand votes”. He is wrong. And Kamala Harris will win.
I almost feel bad for some of the Trump surrogates (including members of the Trump family) who try to copy him and get the same praise and love he does, some of them with one eye on the future.
Whilst I sure as hell don't share in that love, it's pretty clear that most of the Trump surrogates alos just don't match up as far as the Trump base are concerned.
I don’t feel at all sorry for the Trump surrogates who are so far off the reservation they are not in the same space time reality as the rest of us.
'almost feel bad' was in this case code for 'not feel bad'.
They all chose this, some of them giving up a lot of personal dignity in the process given how much Trump has criticised them and how much the Trump base still detests them (Lindsey Graham comes to mind).
Rory Stewart @RoryStewartUK · 36m Journalists would like the US race to seem as close as possible - it suits their appetite for suspense and @afneil ‘s desire to prod the establishment. But this won’t be a close race decided by a “couple of thousand votes”. He is wrong. And Kamala Harris will win.
Rory did zero campaigning when he was my MP. Zero canvassing, zero leafleting. He would not know campaigning if it slapped him in the face. He might be right he might be wrong, but if he is it isn’t based on any insight.
Rory Stewart @RoryStewartUK · 36m Journalists would like the US race to seem as close as possible - it suits their appetite for suspense and @afneil ‘s desire to prod the establishment. But this won’t be a close race decided by a “couple of thousand votes”. He is wrong. And Kamala Harris will win.
Rory Stewart @RoryStewartUK · 36m Journalists would like the US race to seem as close as possible - it suits their appetite for suspense and @afneil ‘s desire to prod the establishment. But this won’t be a close race decided by a “couple of thousand votes”. He is wrong. And Kamala Harris will win.
Rory did zero campaigning when he was my MP. Zero canvassing, zero leafleting. He would not know campaigning if it slapped him in the face. He might be right he might be wrong, but if he is it isn’t based on any insight.
Well you were presumably out in the wilderness, maybe he just didn't make it all the way out there.
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
I never figured out "Dutch Salute"
You aren’t the only one. Dutch Salute, Guess Boris’ Weight, and Viewcode’s Betting Shop Lament are three PB wonders that I fear will ever elude me.
"Dutch Salute": theory posited by @MoonRabbit for the 2024 UK GE that voters would alternate between Labour and LibDems, creating a sine-wave effect. Since a sine wave looks like boobs, it was called a "Dutch Salute" due to (presumably) Dutch people doing this. Found to be true.
"Snorkelling": theory posited by @MoonRabbit for the 2024 US POTUS that voters would lie to the pollsters, esp older women over burdened by their husbands, but express their true allegiance in the polling booth. Plausible but as yet unproven
"Guess Boris’ Weight": following Johnson's ascension to the Premiership, he put on weight as most do. His fans said (part-seriously, part-tongue-in-cheek) that it was all muscle. and it became a meme.
"EICIPM": Acronym for "Ed Is Crap Is PM", describing the phenomenon that Ed Miliband was derided but ahead in the polls. It turned out the pools were very wrong but the derision was accurate.
"Viewcode's Betting Shop Lament": a reference to an article written by Viewcode which noted the disparity in odds proferred in physical shops vs those online and mourned the lack of politically-aware bookmakers that resulted. In terms of comments it is by far the most popular article I've written, despite the fact it required no research other than memory
"Cyclefree Limit"/"Viewcode Limit"/"Ydoethur Limit". 1200, 1500 and 1800 word-long articles, named after the people who hit them first, each superseding the other
"Golden Rule": the theory posited by @OGH that the worst poll for Labour was the correct won. Was true until it wasn't.
"OGH": "Our Genial Host", the code for Mike Smithson, the founder of PB, now sadly retired.
"Nick's Threesome": the convention that any reference to the number three must be accompanied by a reference to [redacted], a PBer who once had...well, you can work it out
"Gross approval": rule of thumb by @OGH that the gross approval figures are the best predictor of an election
"Net approval": rule of thumb by @isam that the net approval figures are the best predictor of an election
"Pineapple of Pizza/Radiohead". PB Sibboleths. It is very important to have the correct opinion, which I have sadly forgotten
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
I’m thinking if moderate Republicans, who hate Trump and MAGA, have been quietly waiting for a moment to finish both off, then this is it. In politics you only make the move when it is the right moment - and this week is definitely that moment they have been waiting for.
So registered GOP to Dem switchers might like to go about this business discretely and unseen, so they are “snorkelling” - placing apparatus over our eyes, so we can’t clearly see what’s going on, and only know what they are up to when we “taste” the votes coming in. Trump/Kam canvasser knocks on door or pollster contacts them - they won’t tell anyone how they voted or intend to vote, they don’t want it seeping out… “have you voted, can you tell me who for?” “Yes. We have both voted already/will vote for Donald Trump.”
Sea Shanty, who I always read and respect, says be careful about dissing Ralston, but at same time how does Ralston explain latest polling giving Kam comfortable win in the state. If a lot of Snorkelling is going on, it’s out of sight, impossible for Ralston or anyone to detect it as it’s based on a large group of voters with a secret ballot lying in public.
If there are Reps across the country following clear lead of Chaney & Bush, but discreetly, how would any pundit, pollster, early vote registration counter or canvasser know? They can’t. It’s happening invisibly. An army will have put an end to Trump and MAGA, but you will never see them or know who they were. All the media, both campaigns, political bettors, will never see it coming.
But the first rule of politics is, you never make your move until the right moment.
Quoting Wodehouse quoting scripture. And also paraphrasing Reagan. Gets my vote.
Vice President Harris at Detroit church service: “When I think about the days ahead and the God we serve, we were born for such a time as this. The road ahead won't be easy. But in times of uncertainty, we are reminded that weeping may endure for a night, but joy cometh in the morning. Church, morning is on its way” https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1853131876224876937
Rory Stewart @RoryStewartUK · 36m Journalists would like the US race to seem as close as possible - it suits their appetite for suspense and @afneil ‘s desire to prod the establishment. But this won’t be a close race decided by a “couple of thousand votes”. He is wrong. And Kamala Harris will win.
Rory did zero campaigning when he was my MP. Zero canvassing, zero leafleting. He would not know campaigning if it slapped him in the face. He might be right he might be wrong, but if he is it isn’t based on any insight.
Well you were presumably out in the wilderness, maybe he just didn't make it all the way out there.
No. I had constituency access to the canvassing input (but see what you did there..)
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
Travelling under water, out of sight.
I think @MoonRabbit believes moderate Republicans are quietly voting Kamala.
I don't know. The mood music is good for Kamala this critical weekend, but are we listening to the wrong song?.
Selzer is a poll of 808 people, but seems to have massively moved the markets in a vote likely to have 150 000 000 voters.
Re the Selzer poll, what it would have to implicitly suggest is that people are no longer motivated by what they think about the economy (where Trump has a lead generally) but by abortion / the threat to democracy argument (where Harris leads).
That is possible but, given what Americans think about inflation at the moment and how they view Trump's four years in office on the economic front, that is a hell of a change.
Nope. Trump simply dropped the ball as the election unfolded. Instead of hammering the cost of living polling advantage home, strictly on message, he went off warbling about all sorts of garbage, high on his own supply. When Kam started repetitively repeating fixing cost of living is number 1 on her to do list for day 1, it’s created quite the contrast with Trumps own messaging in recent weeks.
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
I’m thinking if moderate Republicans, who hate Trump and MAGA, have been quietly waiting for a moment to finish both off, then this is it. In politics you only make the move when it is the right moment - and this week is definitely that moment they have been waiting for.
So registered GOP to Dem switchers might like to go about this business discretely and unseen, so they are “snorkelling” - placing apparatus over our eyes, so we can’t clearly see what’s going on, and only know what they are up to when we “taste” the votes coming in. Trump/Kam canvasser knocks on door or pollster contacts them - they won’t tell anyone how they voted or intend to vote, they don’t want it seeping out… “have you voted, can you tell me who for?” “Yes. We have both voted already/will vote for Donald Trump.”
Sea Shanty, who I always read and respect, says be careful about dissing Ralston, but at same time how does Ralston explain latest polling giving Kam comfortable win in the state. If a lot of Snorkelling is going on, it’s out of sight, impossible for Ralston or anyone to detect it as it’s based on a large group of voters with a secret ballot lying in public.
If there are Reps across the country following clear lead of Chaney & Bush, but discreetly, how would any pundit, pollster, early vote registration counter or canvasser know? They can’t. It’s happening invisibly. An army will have put an end to Trump and MAGA, but you will never see them or know who they were. All the media, both campaigns, political bettors, will never see it coming.
But the first rule of politics is, you never make your move until the right moment.
Thanks for the full explanation. Of course, almost the entire Neocon establishment has come out as virulently anti-Trump on constitutional and national security issues. That part - the 200 former Trump appointees etc… - is certainly not snorkeling. But, I figure there are a lot of GOP housewives in MAGA households who do worry about their daughters and the abortion issue. And the MAGA milieu can be quite threatening if you live in a ruby red area where everyone has flags and guns. So that’s on of the two reasons I believe the pollster are systematically off. The other is that they are measuring the wrong electorate.
What a strange election. Usually we can't know why someone wins a close one ahead of time, but this time it's blatantly obvious. It's the economy, stupid. Or. It's the females, stupid. We just don't know which. So. We know why each candidate wins, we just don't know if they will.
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
I never figured out "Dutch Salute"
You aren’t the only one. Dutch Salute, Guess Boris’ Weight, and Viewcode’s Betting Shop Lament are three PB wonders that I fear will ever elude me.
"Dutch Salute": theory posited by @MoonRabbit for the 2024 UK GE that voters would alternate between Labour and LibDems, creating a sine-wave effect. Since a sine wave looks like boobs, it was called a "Dutch Salute" due to (presumably) Dutch people doing this. Found to be true.
"Snorkelling": theory posited by @MoonRabbit for the 2024 US POTUS that voters would lie to the pollsters, esp older women over burdened by their husbands, but express their true allegiance in the polling booth. Plausible but as yet unproven
"Guess Boris’ Weight": following Johnson's ascension to the Premiership, he put on weight as most do. His fans said (part-seriously, part-tongue-in-cheek) that it was all muscle. and it became a meme.
"EICIPM": Acronym for "Ed Is Crap Is PM", describing the phenomenon that Ed Miliband was derided but ahead in the polls. It turned out the pools were very wrong but the derision was accurate.
"Viewcode's Betting Shop Lament": a reference to an article written by Viewcode which noted the disparity in odds proferred in physical shops vs those online and mourned the lack of politically-aware bookmakers that resulted. In terms of comments it is by far the most popular article I've written, despite the fact it required no research other than memory
"Cyclefree Limit"/"Viewcode Limit"/"Ydoethur Limit". 1200, 1500 and 1800 word-long articles, named after the people who hit them first, each superseding the other
"Golden Rule": the theory posited by @OGH that the worst poll for Labour was the correct won. Was true until it wasn't.
"OGH": "Our Genial Host", the code for Mike Smithson, the founder of PB, now sadly retired.
"Nick's Threesome": the convention that any reference to the number three must be accompanied by a reference to [redacted], a PBer who once had...well, you can work it out
"Gross approval": rule of thumb by @OGH that the gross approval figures are the best predictor of an election
"Net approval": rule of thumb by @isam that the net approval figures are the best predictor of an election
"Pineapple of Pizza/Radiohead". PB Sibboleths. It is very important to have the correct opinion, which I have sadly forgotten
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
Travelling under water, out of sight.
I think @MoonRabbit believes moderate Republicans are quietly voting Kamala.
I don't know. The mood music is good for Kamala this critical weekend, but are we listening to the wrong song?.
Selzer is a poll of 808 people, but seems to have massively moved the markets in a vote likely to have 150 000 000 voters.
“Travelling under water, out of sight.”
Or when a lover puts something over your eyes, and you can’t see what they are up to… until you can finally taste it.
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
I’m thinking if moderate Republicans, who hate Trump and MAGA, have been quietly waiting for a moment to finish both off, then this is it. In politics you only make the move when it is the right moment - and this week is definitely that moment they have been waiting for.
So registered GOP to Dem switchers might like to go about this business discretely and unseen, so they are “snorkelling” - placing apparatus over our eyes, so we can’t clearly see what’s going on, and only know what they are up to when we “taste” the votes coming in. Trump/Kam canvasser knocks on door or pollster contacts them - they won’t tell anyone how they voted or intend to vote, they don’t want it seeping out… “have you voted, can you tell me who for?” “Yes. We have both voted already/will vote for Donald Trump.”
Sea Shanty, who I always read and respect, says be careful about dissing Ralston, but at same time how does Ralston explain latest polling giving Kam comfortable win in the state. If a lot of Snorkelling is going on, it’s out of sight, impossible for Ralston or anyone to detect it as it’s based on a large group of voters with a secret ballot lying in public.
If there are Reps across the country following clear lead of Chaney & Bush, but discreetly, how would any pundit, pollster, early vote registration counter or canvasser know? They can’t. It’s happening invisibly. An army will have put an end to Trump and MAGA, but you will never see them or know who they were. All the media, both campaigns, political bettors, will never see it coming.
But the first rule of politics is, you never make your move until the right moment.
Thanks for the full explanation. Of course, almost the entire Neocon establishment has come out as virulently anti-Trump on constitutional and national security issues. That part - the 200 former Trump appointees etc… - is certainly not snorkeling. But, I figure there are a lot of GOP housewives in MAGA households who do worry about their daughters and the abortion issue. And the MAGA milieu can be quite threatening if you live in a ruby red area where everyone has flags and guns. So that’s on of the two reasons I believe the pollster are systematically off. The other is that they are measuring the wrong electorate.
PS. There is a very lively debate in the political class on how, precisely, the Haley voters are going to vote in the general. That is a significant chunk of the GOP and could have a huge impact. It would also be understandable, if such people have ambitions within the party post Trump, that they would not want a 2024 defection to be widely known.
One reason pollsters might be failing to pick up what Ann Selzer picked up in Iowa, is a lot of women are afraid to say they are voting for Harris.
Sharing stories yesterday after knocking doors in Pennsylvania, can't tell you the number of canvassers who had wives standing in the background while speaking to the husband and having them mouth something to the effect that they were voting for Harris. Or if they answered the door, they pretended to not say who they were voting for out loud and then whispered they were voting for Harris. It's kind of heartbreaking actually.
I like this story but then the question is: How did Selzer get them to talk?
Could it just be she didn’t weight them away by past vote recall etc
Politicalbetting.com (no joke!)
Last time around Mysticrose and Alastair Hutton were very helpful. Alastair operated a countdown to crossover after Trump initially took the lead (stop the count!) it was very handy for shredded nerves like mine.
Remember kids the early results go to the GOP because counting in a small rural Pennsylvania community is less time consuming than an inner city Philadelphia count.
I recall with some fondness a couple of Trumpers who were initially quite boorishly triumphant then became tetchier as the night went on, and then had an epic meltdown in the morning. Can’t recall their names but I daresay they may still be around with new identities.
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Iowa
Or the jobs created.
Well, we shall see. The reality is that 75% of the vote has already happened, and women outnumber men among voters almost 1.3:1.
Now, I'm sure that the gap will narrow between now and the end of Tuesday, but I struggle to see Trump winning in Georgia if the gap is more than - say - 1.15:1.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris
Even in her final poll before the 2020 election, she had Biden ahead by 9% among women when the exit poll figures you quoted had Biden only 3% up among women.
And is I assumed named after the Skylon which was a feature of the Festival of Britain 1951, on the South Bank. It's an excellent name.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skylon_(Festival_of_Britain)
(Despite the root of the word, in the US you are more likely to find civilized behavior in small towns than in large cities.)
Women will vote for a variety of reasons - are women voters coming out because of the abortion issue or other factors, such as fears on inflation?
However, they'd obviously prefer to be in a place where they are not relying on an argument which is, essentially, 'despite the polling deadlock/trump advantage, we are favourites', no one wants to rely on late breakers and first time voters.
Do enough people see it? Do enough who see it care?
As for the lead amongst women, that's a separate point, and doesn't support the thesis you originally presented IMO.
Look, I am not as strongly tied to this Selzer poll as you are averse to it, but her track record is very strong, and you've not (to me) made a coherent claim as to why she's off this time. She might be! I think Trump will win Iowa FWIW, but the argument you make doesn't stack up.
The Weave has all gone a bit Grandpa Simpson.
Personally whilst I hope the Harris camp are right I just don't trust campaigns to tell me what their numbers are, since they have no incentive to be honest - if the news is so good it might make people complacent so underplay it, if it is bad say differently to motivate people.
The most prominent ones I recall are probably Coventry Cathedral and the Atomium.
From the data that’s provided in states that have this the vote by mail is more female than the in person early in 2024.
Michigan is running close to its 2020 gender split but there are some marked differences in comparing the Edison exit polls v current data so far in other states.
Virginia exit poll had 51 to 49 split . Current combined mail and in person early has 55.6 v 44.4 .
https://x.com/johnnywestt/status/1853065164108496923/photo/1
(2) Even if they did know, they aren't in the business of telling you how it is, they're in the business of trying to win elections
She has passed her first test.
See: DJT.
My gut has been Trump but now I'm second guessing myself based on comments on here.
Might be best to just keep my funds in my pocket
Selzer does the Iowa poll on a regular schedule every Presudental election, and her methods are well documented.
Conspiracy theories are built on ignorance and/or bad faith argument.
(I realise the actor in question seems to have been almost an anti-Trump. RIP.)
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0380097/
An ambitious computer consultant is hired to detect fraud in a major bank's computer system and finds himself involved in a complex scheme of lies, blackmail and murder.
1983 and very full of of the 'what are these computer things? who are these city boys?' feelings. Reminded me little of the current media lines on "AI". Worth tracking down if you can. ("Bird of Prey" being rather more famous at the time, but rather different in tone)
They never sound terribly optimistic.
Bullish confidence is someone else’s characteristic…
The Iowa poll has just highlighted that the election is highly uncertain and could result in a comfortable win in either direction due to a a normal sized polling error. Maybe it's made punters realise this, but it was always true.
They were expecting thousands of people at JD Vance rally, with Don Jr. Only tens of people showed up.
https://x.com/MikeSington/status/1853086584540659922
For example in Virginia male registrations are 47% but they’re only turning out at 44.6% at present .
The initial exit polls on Tuesday night will give a good indicator as to what the night might bring re gender .
Vance: You know something Donald Trump will never do? Donald Trump will never go out there and say that his fellow citizens should be censored or silenced for disagreeing with them.
https://nitter.poast.org/Acyn/status/1853210416882823464#m
Whilst I sure as hell don't share in that love, it's pretty clear that most of the Trump surrogates alos just don't match up as far as the Trump base are concerned.
Rory Stewart
@RoryStewartUK
·
36m
Journalists would like the US race to seem as close as possible - it suits their appetite for suspense and
@afneil
‘s desire to prod the establishment. But this won’t be a close race decided by a “couple of thousand votes”. He is wrong. And Kamala Harris will win.
https://x.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1853204963024851350
In this race the uncertainty is coming straight from the polls. The polls may turn out to be bent, but if they are it's because the pollsters are confused and shit-scared of understating Trump again, not because they're trying to maximize suspense. The papers would probably be happier if the pollsters would give them some ooh's and aah's instead of an eternally unchanging coin-flip.
... out of a canon into the sun?
“Women are not without electoral or political power.” - Justice Alito, Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization (2022).
https://x.com/marceelias/status/1853063217376796796
Registered Rep lead 43k (4.0%)
Rep 37.7
Dem 33.7
Ind 28.6
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
He looks like an old man...
https://x.com/margommartin/status/1853109926379581696
"In his first week in office, Trump signed an executive order rescinding Obama-era orders that directed the Department of Homeland Security to focus its resources on detaining and removing noncitizens who committed serious crimes. Trump said he would not “exempt classes or categories of removable aliens.” His goal, he said, was enforcement “against all removable aliens.”
What did that mean in practice? Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents were no longer required to focus on felons. They could arrest anyone caught here illegally, and they did — from pizza delivery drivers to domestic-violence victims to spouses of U.S. citizens with no criminal records.
. . .
From January 2017 to February 2020, the Trump administration released more than 58,000 convicted criminals into the United States, including more than 8,600 violent criminals and 306 murderers. Contrast that with the Biden administration, which reinstated enforcement priorities: Overall, the average month under Trump saw twice as many releases as under Biden."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/30/trump-immigration-criminals-border-security/
And, unfortunately, it is possible to see why the Loser might want that increase.
Trump however was up on both his national average final rating in polls and his swing states final rating when the results came in.
There are still some voters who won't say they will be voting Trump while almost all Harris voters will tell pollsters they will be voting for her
They all chose this, some of them giving up a lot of personal dignity in the process given how much Trump has criticised them and how much the Trump base still detests them (Lindsey Graham comes to mind).
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1853205128586662065
So registered GOP to Dem switchers might like to go about this business discretely and unseen, so they are “snorkelling” - placing apparatus over our eyes, so we can’t clearly see what’s going on, and only know what they are up to when we “taste” the votes coming in.
Trump/Kam canvasser knocks on door or pollster contacts them - they won’t tell anyone how they voted or intend to vote, they don’t want it seeping out…
“have you voted, can you tell me who for?”
“Yes. We have both voted already/will vote for Donald Trump.”
Sea Shanty, who I always read and respect, says be careful about dissing Ralston, but at same time how does Ralston explain latest polling giving Kam comfortable win in the state. If a lot of Snorkelling is going on, it’s out of sight, impossible for Ralston or anyone to detect it as it’s based on a large group of voters with a secret ballot lying in public.
If there are Reps across the country following clear lead of Chaney & Bush, but discreetly, how would any pundit, pollster, early vote registration counter or canvasser know? They can’t. It’s happening invisibly. An army will have put an end to Trump and MAGA, but you will never see them or know who they were. All the media, both campaigns, political bettors, will never see it coming.
But the first rule of politics is, you never make your move until the right moment.
And also paraphrasing Reagan.
Gets my vote.
Vice President Harris at Detroit church service: “When I think about the days ahead and the God we serve, we were born for such a time as this. The road ahead won't be easy. But in times of uncertainty, we are reminded that weeping may endure for a night, but joy cometh in the morning. Church, morning is on its way”
https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1853131876224876937
Holy shit. As early voting comes to a close, young voters are continuing to WILDLY outperform our EV benchmarks.
US: +40%
AZ: +3%
GA: +60%
MI: + 255%
NC: +61%
PA: +117%
WI: +4%
https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853154726415610284
Actual percentages of young registered voters who've voted so far:
AZ: 18%
GA: 28.2%
MI: 15.4%
NC: 32.1%
NV: 19.1%
PA: 8.6%
WI: 18.1%
Usually we can't know why someone wins a close one ahead of time, but this time it's blatantly obvious.
It's the economy, stupid. Or.
It's the females, stupid.
We just don't know which.
So. We know why each candidate wins, we just don't know if they will.
Or when a lover puts something over your eyes, and you can’t see what they are up to… until you can finally taste it.