I hear what he's saying but also, Emerson has Trump +10 in Iowa while Selzer has Harris +3. At least one of them is methodically flawed and not to be trusted!
Could just be one has a rogue sample. But yes, one of them has to be wrong.
Emerson is correcting its sample to the actual 2020 turnout. Doesn’t seem smart to me.
He is presumably also freaked out by the NYTimes/Siena polls today.
Evening PB.
What are those particular polls saying.?
Final NYT/Siena battleground poll results
Arizona: Trump +4
Georgia: Harris +1
Michigan: Trump +1
Nevada: Harris +3
North Carolina: Harris +3
Pennsylvania: Even
Wisconsin: Harris +3
Slightly different from the AtlasIntel polls:
AZ - Trump +6
NV - Trump +6
GA - Trump +2
PA - Trump +2
MI - Trump +2
NC - Trump +2
WI - Trump +1
Should Trump be freaked out by the NYT polls or Harris by the AtlasIntel polls?
The AtlasIntel numbers look really good for Trump, but I find them very hard to reconcile with (say) the Georgia early voting data.
56% women.
If that holds - and we're already at 55% turnout, so that means three quarters of all votes have already been cast - I can't see how he possibly wins Georgia.
Get that in terms of the GA numbers and the like. They do look positive for Harris by split.
One thing I don't think we know yet though re the gender split is whether the heavy Republican spend on trans issues - which is specifically targeted at the white suburban women Harris needs - is having an effect. It didn't in 2022 but the Republicans seem confident it is working with swing voters.
My point is that assuming the only gender-specific issue that is motivating women to vote is abortion might be right but, if - and it's a big if - the Republican strategy on trans issues is having an impact, the gender gap might be a more nuanced affair.
Given a choice between what is essentially a niche issue about the scope and process for gender transition, and the very serious and imminent issues, literally life and death issues, caused by the lack of gynaecological care following a demented Supreme Court ruling backed by Trump, which one do you think women will prioritise?
I mean, I'm obviously not a woman, but I don't think that's difficult choice.
It's a general finding when polling on Trans issues that women are more accepting of Trans-folk than men are, including in the USA, so could be a Republican own goal.
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Here’s the state of play: Several people close to Netanyahu have been arrested, or are preparing to be, for sharing embellished or fabricated intel to @JewishChron & @BILD designed to scupper a hostage deal. 1/4
He is presumably also freaked out by the NYTimes/Siena polls today.
Evening PB.
What are those particular polls saying.?
Final NYT/Siena battleground poll results
Arizona: Trump +4
Georgia: Harris +1
Michigan: Trump +1
Nevada: Harris +3
North Carolina: Harris +3
Pennsylvania: Even
Wisconsin: Harris +3
Slightly different from the AtlasIntel polls:
AZ - Trump +6
NV - Trump +6
GA - Trump +2
PA - Trump +2
MI - Trump +2
NC - Trump +2
WI - Trump +1
Should Trump be freaked out by the NYT polls or Harris by the AtlasIntel polls?
The AtlasIntel numbers look really good for Trump, but I find them very hard to reconcile with (say) the Georgia early voting data.
56% women.
If that holds - and we're already at 55% turnout, so that means three quarters of all votes have already been cast - I can't see how he possibly wins Georgia.
Get that in terms of the GA numbers and the like. They do look positive for Harris by split.
One thing I don't think we know yet though re the gender split is whether the heavy Republican spend on trans issues - which is specifically targeted at the white suburban women Harris needs - is having an effect. It didn't in 2022 but the Republicans seem confident it is working with swing voters.
My point is that assuming the only gender-specific issue that is motivating women to vote is abortion might be right but, if - and it's a big if - the Republican strategy on trans issues is having an impact, the gender gap might be a more nuanced affair.
Given a choice between what is essentially a niche issue about the scope and process for gender transition, and the very serious and imminent issues, literally life and death issues, caused by the lack of gynaecological care following a demented Supreme Court ruling backed by Trump, which one do you think women will prioritise?
I mean, I'm obviously not a woman, but I don't think that's difficult choice.
It's a general finding when polling on Trans issues that women are more accepting of Trans-folk than men are, including in the USA, so could be a Republican own goal.
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
I'm sure the pb.com rogue's gallery will fill out plenty come the small hours of Wednesday!
Should have added to my quasi-learned discourse re: former POTUSs, that it's also customary for folks to refer to former elected officials, by their last/highest job title. IF they (the folks or the former) want to that is.
Thus here is WA one could (or not) refer to our former, still living govs as "Governor Locke" and "Governor Gregoire".
But hardly obligatory, mostly what feels right, to you or them.
For example, Nelson Rockefeller's last and highest (in his case unelected) office was Vice President of the United States. BUT nobody called him "Vice President" (or even Veep) after 1976; much more common (but again NOT required) was "Governor" even though he left that job in 1974.
The fascinating thing about the memo is all the references to "President" Trump yet not a single reference to President Biden. I'm no expert but I believe there can only be one POTUS at a time - now, it may be possible, even if one is no longer actually POTUS to be referred to as President but doesn't that require a "Former" in front of it so it's Former President Obama, Former President Bush, even Former President Carter so presumably Former President Trump?
I presume his acolytes, wishing to enjoy his favour and not wanting to remind him he lost in 2020, still refer to him as President Trump and sycophantic broadcasters like RSBN likewise but the rest of us need to call him for what he is, a Former President.
No, this seems to be an American quirk, where you keep your most senior title in perpetuity. For example, I've heard H Clinton referred to numerous times as "Secretary Clinton" in respect of her time as Secretary of State in the Obama administration.
Obviously, where there is potential for confusion it's not unusual for "former" to be prepended, but it's not a controversial thing. I'd make a point of calling Trump former President Trump mainly because I'm British, and it's what I'm used to, and only partly because it would annoy him.
I presumed it was because it's seen as a rank, like we continue to call some senior military officers "Major" even in retirement.
I think this applies to Bishop as well.
Yes. A bishop is a bishop in two potential ways: S/he is a member of the order of bishops in virtue of their consecration. This is, more or less indelible and is for life. They might also be Bishop of Barchester or wherever, which post is highly delible and temporary.
Most people would consider clinging on to your job title after you've retired is a bit knobbish.
(narrator: this fact has underpinned British sitcoms such as Fawlty Towers and especially Dad's Army)
One of the BBC's many irritating quirks is to refer to then-prime minister Thatcher in connection with the Falklands War, as if they don't trust their readers to realise the Blessed Margaret isn't PM any more. Though I'd cut them some slack if they mention then-prime minster Truss in reference to QEII's funeral as it threatens to become a really tricky pub quiz question for future generations.
TRUSS may yet stage a sensational return. I suspect Kemi is already looking over her shoulder, where a grimacing titan is lurking in the gloom.
Truss lost her Norfolk seat on one of the biggest swings against an incumbent in UK history, she isn't coming back unless on a Bernard Matthews Turkey ad
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
The thing with the Iowa poll is it's not too far off where they were in September which had Trump 47 and Harris 44
Shades of 2020 US blue shift in the Moldova results tonight. Sandu is still a smidge behind the Putinist at 90% counted, but the last 10% looks like being overwhelmingly for her (diaspora and Chisinau)
Same shift happened in the referendum a few weeks ago. Fingers crossed.
Presidential national security adviser Stanislav Secrieru said Russia had organised buses and large charter flights to bring voters to polling stations.
Bomb scares had briefly disrupted voting in Moldova, at UK polling stations in Liverpool and Northampton and at Frankfurt and Kaiserslautern in Germany, he added.
Northampton seems an unlikely place to host a polling station for a foreign election?
Today while driving around Pewsey Vale and Salisbury Plain delivering parcels, I've mostly been listening to fab NOLA band Tuba Skinny
All of their videos seem to be live recordings, many of them on the street, like this one. No microphones or amplifiers, just great music and a quite fantastic voice
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
It's interesting to compare Selzer's final poll in 2020 with those exit poll numbers to see where she got it wrong, despite the headline result being close.
It looks like she also had a poll in September of that year which showed a similarly big lead among women, but it had faded by election day.
“We saw a huge gender gap that benefited Biden in September,” Selzer said. “And while there is still a big gap among men — they’re going for Trump by a 24-point margin — it's just a 9-point margin for Biden with women. And so there's just an imbalance there. Before, we saw mirror images of each other.”
Related: Here's who women, men are donating to in Iowa's US Senate, House races
Biden is leading with two groups of voters that Trump carried in 2016: those with a college degree (50% to 40%) and women without a college degree (49% to 43%). Biden is also leading in the suburbs (47% to 43%).
But Trump has mostly maintained the support of demographic groups he carried in Iowa in 2016. Today, he leads with men 56% to 32%; with whites 48% to 43%; with those without a college degree 54% to 35%; and with white evangelicals 72% to 20%.
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
The site is much more interesting when we are not being hectored by the drunken alt-right drivel... though when I think of Judith Chalmers it is a tan and a pink Crimplene trouser suit that comes to mind. Pink Crimplene would take edge off latent fascism, I feel, so maybe should be compulsory for such people.
Since 1948, no Democrat has claimed the White House without winning Pennsylvania. For @VP Harris, a victory there would most likely seal the deal. So, we’ve been polling the state this weekend, we'll wrap the fieldwork & share the results with you tomorrow.
On a party registration basis, Dems are up by their pre-stated goal of 400k in early voting in PA. However, early voting is at a much lower percentage of the total vote than in GA (1.7m/2020’s 6.94m).
Here’s the state of play: Several people close to Netanyahu have been arrested, or are preparing to be, for sharing embellished or fabricated intel to @JewishChron & @BILD designed to scupper a hostage deal. 1/4
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
Beware dissing John Ralston re: Nevada BEFORE the votes are counted. And likely afterwards.
Reading the tea leaves in Silver State elections is as much an art as a science; indeed more!
Shades of 2020 US blue shift in the Moldova results tonight. Sandu is still a smidge behind the Putinist at 90% counted, but the last 10% looks like being overwhelmingly for her (diaspora and Chisinau)
Same shift happened in the referendum a few weeks ago. Fingers crossed.
Presidential national security adviser Stanislav Secrieru said Russia had organised buses and large charter flights to bring voters to polling stations.
Bomb scares had briefly disrupted voting in Moldova, at UK polling stations in Liverpool and Northampton and at Frankfurt and Kaiserslautern in Germany, he added.
Northampton seems an unlikely place to host a polling station for a foreign election?
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.
Good to see you back.
He's been banned so often though. He's a bully and a bully that was increasingly veering towards racism by the time I took a time out.
The fascinating thing about the memo is all the references to "President" Trump yet not a single reference to President Biden. I'm no expert but I believe there can only be one POTUS at a time - now, it may be possible, even if one is no longer actually POTUS to be referred to as President but doesn't that require a "Former" in front of it so it's Former President Obama, Former President Bush, even Former President Carter so presumably Former President Trump?
I presume his acolytes, wishing to enjoy his favour and not wanting to remind him he lost in 2020, still refer to him as President Trump and sycophantic broadcasters like RSBN likewise but the rest of us need to call him for what he is, a Former President.
No, this seems to be an American quirk, where you keep your most senior title in perpetuity. For example, I've heard H Clinton referred to numerous times as "Secretary Clinton" in respect of her time as Secretary of State in the Obama administration.
Obviously, where there is potential for confusion it's not unusual for "former" to be prepended, but it's not a controversial thing. I'd make a point of calling Trump former President Trump mainly because I'm British, and it's what I'm used to, and only partly because it would annoy him.
I presumed it was because it's seen as a rank, like we continue to call some senior military officers "Major" even in retirement.
I think this applies to Bishop as well.
Yes. A bishop is a bishop in two potential ways: S/he is a member of the order of bishops in virtue of their consecration. This is, more or less indelible and is for life. They might also be Bishop of Barchester or wherever, which post is highly delible and temporary.
Most people would consider clinging on to your job title after you've retired is a bit knobbish.
See Doctor Liam Fox.
That is a qualification, not a job title. On that basis you could claim "doctor" to be more justifiable than "professor" for retired academics
Medical doctors don't have doctorates. Perhaps we should refer to them as medics rather than doctors to avoid this confusion.
Those of us who are professional engineers don't replace the Mr/Mrs/Miss/Ms/Mx in front of our name with "Eng".
In Italy “Ing” is more highly regarded than “Doctore” as an honorific
Here’s the state of play: Several people close to Netanyahu have been arrested, or are preparing to be, for sharing embellished or fabricated intel to @JewishChron & @BILD designed to scupper a hostage deal. 1/4
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
The fascinating thing about the memo is all the references to "President" Trump yet not a single reference to President Biden. I'm no expert but I believe there can only be one POTUS at a time - now, it may be possible, even if one is no longer actually POTUS to be referred to as President but doesn't that require a "Former" in front of it so it's Former President Obama, Former President Bush, even Former President Carter so presumably Former President Trump?
I presume his acolytes, wishing to enjoy his favour and not wanting to remind him he lost in 2020, still refer to him as President Trump and sycophantic broadcasters like RSBN likewise but the rest of us need to call him for what he is, a Former President.
No, this seems to be an American quirk, where you keep your most senior title in perpetuity. For example, I've heard H Clinton referred to numerous times as "Secretary Clinton" in respect of her time as Secretary of State in the Obama administration.
Obviously, where there is potential for confusion it's not unusual for "former" to be prepended, but it's not a controversial thing. I'd make a point of calling Trump former President Trump mainly because I'm British, and it's what I'm used to, and only partly because it would annoy him.
I presumed it was because it's seen as a rank, like we continue to call some senior military officers "Major" even in retirement.
I think this applies to Bishop as well.
Yes. A bishop is a bishop in two potential ways: S/he is a member of the order of bishops in virtue of their consecration. This is, more or less indelible and is for life. They might also be Bishop of Barchester or wherever, which post is highly delible and temporary.
Most people would consider clinging on to your job title after you've retired is a bit knobbish.
See Doctor Liam Fox.
That is a qualification, not a job title. On that basis you could claim "doctor" to be more justifiable than "professor" for retired academics
Medical doctors don't have doctorates. Perhaps we should refer to them as medics rather than doctors to avoid this confusion.
Those of us who are professional engineers don't replace the Mr/Mrs/Miss/Ms/Mx in front of our name with "Eng".
In Italy “Ing” is more highly regarded than “Doctore” as an honorific
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.
Good to see you back.
He's been banned so often though. He's a bully and a bully that was increasingly veering towards racism by the time I took a time out.
I strongly demur from this line. The pile-on Leon is su jected to is always disproportionate to the admittedy non-negligible abuse he gives out.
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.
Good to see you back.
He's been banned so often though. He's a bully and a bully that was increasingly veering towards racism by the time I took a time out.
I strongly demur from this line. The pile-on Leon is su jected to is always disproportionate to the admittedy non-negligible abuse he gives out.
That's because there's (thankfully) only one of him.
Today while driving around Pewsey Vale and Salisbury Plain delivering parcels, I've mostly been listening to fab NOLA band Tuba Skinny
All of their videos seem to be live recordings, many of them on the street, like this one. No microphones or amplifiers, just great music and a quite fantastic voice
Pretty good! Though Bill Monroe had a HIGHER voice than the vocalist on this rendition.
BTW, am I the only PBer who ever heard/saw Bill Monoe performing in the flesh? In my case, at his "farm" in Bean Blossom, Indiana.
Lucky you. Normally at this time of the week I'd be sitting by the fire listening to our local folk/blues/Americana/jazz band. Instead I'm trying to weigh up gender-based turnout models and Iowa crosstabs.
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.
Good to see you back.
He's been banned so often though. He's a bully and a bully that was increasingly veering towards racism by the time I took a time out.
Enjoy it while it lasts!
Hopefully we can discuss the election for a bit before Billy Blackshirt returns in another guise.
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
Travelling under water, out of sight.
I think @MoonRabbit believes moderate Republicans are quietly voting Kamala.
I don't know. The mood music is good for Kamala this critical weekend, but are we listening to the wrong song?.
Selzer is a poll of 808 people, but seems to have massively moved the markets in a vote likely to have 150 000 000 voters.
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
Here’s the state of play: Several people close to Netanyahu have been arrested, or are preparing to be, for sharing embellished or fabricated intel to @JewishChron & @BILD designed to scupper a hostage deal. 1/4
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.
Good to see you back.
He's been banned so often though. He's a bully and a bully that was increasingly veering towards racism by the time I took a time out.
I strongly demur from this line. The pile-on Leon is su jected to is always disproportionate to the admittedy non-negligible abuse he gives out.
That's because there's (thankfully) only one of him.
More like 6th December on most polls, we must hope by 6th January
If Selzer is right then it wont be being held up until December.
I don't know anymore than anyone else. But pollsters underestimated Trump twice. They don't want to have been seen to do so three times. So, if Selzer is right, they may be overcompensating. Also explains the herding.
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.
Good to see you back.
He's been banned so often though. He's a bully and a bully that was increasingly veering towards racism by the time I took a time out.
I strongly demur from this line. The pile-on Leon is su jected to is always disproportionate to the admittedy non-negligible abuse he gives out.
Re this: there is a lot in what Elon Musk says about free speech, and the reasons given for acquiring Twitter.
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
I don't think these campaign briefings have a lot of information content. They're not going to say "we are so fucked lmao"
Yes, it might be true, but each to some degree has only theories that it is breaking their way, there's nothing public and obvious that there will be a clear winner.
Have we all seen the video of Trump's rally where he comments how full the stadium is as the cameraman pans to empty areas and then to people walking out
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
The site is much more interesting when we are not being hectored by the drunken alt-right drivel... though when I think of Judith Chalmers it is a tan and a pink Crimplene trouser suit that comes to mind. Pink Crimplene would take edge off latent fascism, I feel, so maybe should be compulsory for such people.
When/if Leon does return will he take kindly to being known as Judith?
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
More like 6th December on most polls, we must hope by 6th January
If Selzer is right then it wont be being held up until December.
I don't know anymore than anyone else. But pollsters underestimated Trump twice. They don't want to have been seen to do so three times. So, if Selzer is right, they may be overcompensating. Also explains the herding.
But I don't know. My hunch is worth jack shit.
My opinion is that either Harris or Trump is going to win the election.
Well he couldn't have the North Carolina gubernatorial candidate at the event, he's so toxic he's reduced to bringing cutouts of Trump to his own events.
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
The site is much more interesting when we are not being hectored by the drunken alt-right drivel... though when I think of Judith Chalmers it is a tan and a pink Crimplene trouser suit that comes to mind. Pink Crimplene would take edge off latent fascism, I feel, so maybe should be compulsory for such people.
When/if Leon does return will he take kindly to being known as Judith?
knowing him that will be the name of his next persona
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
The site is much more interesting when we are not being hectored by the drunken alt-right drivel... though when I think of Judith Chalmers it is a tan and a pink Crimplene trouser suit that comes to mind. Pink Crimplene would take edge off latent fascism, I feel, so maybe should be compulsory for such people.
When/if Leon does return will he take kindly to being known as Judith?
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.
Good to see you back.
He's been banned so often though. He's a bully and a bully that was increasingly veering towards racism by the time I took a time out.
I strongly demur from this line. The pile-on Leon is su jected to is always disproportionate to the admittedy non-negligible abuse he gives out.
Re this: there is a lot in what Elon Musk says about free speech, and the reasons given for acquiring Twitter.
Banning someone is not a free speech issue, it's an editorial issue. He can spout his crap on X or the comments section of Mail Online if he wants. I'm not even advocating banning him. I didn't know he'd been banned. I'm explaining why I haven't been on the site for six weeks.
PB doesn't NEED me or anyone else to post regularly on here, or even read the site, but the mods can take feedback that engagement their site may be damaged by the threat of being bullied by a man who calmly walked up to the line marked "racist" and jauntily skipped over it.
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
More like 6th December on most polls, we must hope by 6th January
If Selzer is right then it wont be being held up until December.
I don't know anymore than anyone else. But pollsters underestimated Trump twice. They don't want to have been seen to do so three times. So, if Selzer is right, they may be overcompensating. Also explains the herding.
But I don't know. My hunch is worth jack shit.
One reason to be sceptical about the Selzer poll is that her numbers have historically tended to fluctuate quite a lot. In September 2020 she had Biden and Trump tied with Biden also 20 points ahead among women.
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
I never figured out "Dutch Salute"
You aren’t the only one. Dutch Salute, Guess Boris’ Weight, and Viewcode’s Betting Shop Lament are three PB wonders that I fear will ever elude me.
"Starmer refuses to take whip from Labour MP who shared ‘white supremacy’ post about Badenoch Pressure had grown on PM over ‘race-baiting’ retweet by Dawn Butler that targeted new Tory leader"
Shades of 2020 US blue shift in the Moldova results tonight. Sandu is still a smidge behind the Putinist at 90% counted, but the last 10% looks like being overwhelmingly for her (diaspora and Chisinau)
Same shift happened in the referendum a few weeks ago. Fingers crossed.
Presidential national security adviser Stanislav Secrieru said Russia had organised buses and large charter flights to bring voters to polling stations.
Bomb scares had briefly disrupted voting in Moldova, at UK polling stations in Liverpool and Northampton and at Frankfurt and Kaiserslautern in Germany, he added.
Northampton seems an unlikely place to host a polling station for a foreign election?
I feel like there's a of interesting details around foreign held elections I am unaware of, maybe we should adopt overseas constituencies ourselves.
Interesting crosstabs in *that* Selzer poll. Senior women drove its startling result with what would be a 29 point swing but it suggests that senior men (while still, barely, leaning R) have seen a greater swing.
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well Don't have too many fights on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Currently he is banned, so the site is much more readable.
Good to see you back.
He's been banned so often though. He's a bully and a bully that was increasingly veering towards racism by the time I took a time out.
I strongly demur from this line. The pile-on Leon is su jected to is always disproportionate to the admittedy non-negligible abuse he gives out.
Re this: there is a lot in what Elon Musk says about free speech, and the reasons given for acquiring Twitter.
No, there isn’t.
By their nature social media platforms are always going to be cesspits.
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
Travelling under water, out of sight.
I think @MoonRabbit believes moderate Republicans are quietly voting Kamala.
I don't know. The mood music is good for Kamala this critical weekend, but are we listening to the wrong song?.
Selzer is a poll of 808 people, but seems to have massively moved the markets in a vote likely to have 150 000 000 voters.
Indeed, the mood - and market - correction does seem somewhat extreme.
"Starmer refuses to take whip from Labour MP who shared ‘white supremacy’ post about Badenoch Pressure had grown on PM over ‘race-baiting’ retweet by Dawn Butler that targeted new Tory leader"
Here’s the state of play: Several people close to Netanyahu have been arrested, or are preparing to be, for sharing embellished or fabricated intel to @JewishChron & @BILD designed to scupper a hostage deal. 1/4
A sizeable minority of Catholics dispute the Catholicism of the Pope. See Opus Dei. Mind you there are Catholics who find Opus Dei a bit Protestant…
Has anyone checked what Opus Dei and chums make of Trump? And bears?
A minority MUCH more sizeable on the internet & etc. than their actual numbers warrant.
Note that of course THEY consider themselve to be the only "true Catholics". Sound familiar?
Well obviously.
Every time someone announces that they are the ultimate ultra ultra ultra Catholic, someone says “hold my beer”
This applies to everything. Did you know there are groups who declare that ISIS are a bunch of slackers on the whole Islamist thing?
The Lieutenant of Inchmore is very fucking funny for exactly this reason.
That is NOT my point, perhaps yours. IF I am semi-understanding it.
MY point is that "ultra" or "ultra-ultra-ultra" Catholics are a minority of total Americans who go to mass regularly. Let alone of total self-IDed RCs including those who do NOT attend regularly.
Like their poster-child JD Vance, they are aberant weirdos, theologically-ideological speaking.
"Starmer refuses to take whip from Labour MP who shared ‘white supremacy’ post about Badenoch Pressure had grown on PM over ‘race-baiting’ retweet by Dawn Butler that targeted new Tory leader"
It used to be the IBD/TIPP poll . It’s now only ranked 120 and its site is just one long anti Harris diatribe so that does put a question mark over its results .
Jeez, you're not kidding. Just took a look. Other than their poll putting Trump ahead and their electoral votes prediction, the top five articles:
"With Billions Spent, Can The U.S. Justify Its Strategy In Ukraine?" "Former Democrats, First-Time Voters Flock To Trump Rally in Michigan" "Will Tuesday’s Vote Counts Be Another Sham Biden-Harris Statistic?!" "The Post-Election Temper Tantrum" [NB - clicking on this reveals it's about an expected Democrat tantrum] "Abortion Is Built On Fraud: A Response To The New York Times" Then the "Lead Articles" double down on this. Wow.
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
Travelling under water, out of sight.
I think @MoonRabbit believes moderate Republicans are quietly voting Kamala.
I don't know. The mood music is good for Kamala this critical weekend, but are we listening to the wrong song?.
Selzer is a poll of 808 people, but seems to have massively moved the markets in a vote likely to have 150 000 000 voters.
Re the Selzer poll, what it would have to implicitly suggest is that people are no longer motivated by what they think about the economy (where Trump has a lead generally) but by abortion / the threat to democracy argument (where Harris leads).
That is possible but, given what Americans think about inflation at the moment and how they view Trump's four years in office on the economic front, that is a hell of a change.
Here’s the state of play: Several people close to Netanyahu have been arrested, or are preparing to be, for sharing embellished or fabricated intel to @JewishChron & @BILD designed to scupper a hostage deal. 1/4
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
I never figured out "Dutch Salute"
You aren’t the only one. Dutch Salute, Guess Boris’ Weight, and Viewcode’s Betting Shop Lament are three PB wonders that I fear will ever elude me.
Betting Shop Lament is surely self-explanatory. If you've ever been the last one out with nothing in your pocket ... you just lost your phone on the 5.15 at Doncaster.
Our group once kept him standing on the stairs for an hour waiting for a table.
Not to be arses. Because our food hadn't arrived. The Sundance Film Festival, Park City, Utah - so many stars, nobody gets to pull "Do you know who I am?" shit. Quite refeshing.
To be fair to him, he just waited without any gripes.
Here’s the state of play: Several people close to Netanyahu have been arrested, or are preparing to be, for sharing embellished or fabricated intel to @JewishChron & @BILD designed to scupper a hostage deal. 1/4
A sizeable minority of Catholics dispute the Catholicism of the Pope. See Opus Dei. Mind you there are Catholics who find Opus Dei a bit Protestant…
Has anyone checked what Opus Dei and chums make of Trump? And bears?
A minority MUCH more sizeable on the internet & etc. than their actual numbers warrant.
Note that of course THEY consider themselve to be the only "true Catholics". Sound familiar?
Well obviously.
Every time someone announces that they are the ultimate ultra ultra ultra Catholic, someone says “hold my beer”
This applies to everything. Did you know there are groups who declare that ISIS are a bunch of slackers on the whole Islamist thing?
The Lieutenant of Inchmore is very fucking funny for exactly this reason.
That is NOT my point, perhaps yours. IF I am semi-understanding it.
MY point is that "ultra" or "ultra-ultra-ultra" Catholics are a minority of total Americans who go to mass regularly. Let alone of total self-IDed RCs including those who do NOT attend regularly.
Like their poster-child JD Vance, they are aberant weirdos, theologically-ideological speaking.
I think it is both of our points.
Doesn’t matter how ultra you are, there’s always someone who will out ultra you.
"Starmer refuses to take whip from Labour MP who shared ‘white supremacy’ post about Badenoch Pressure had grown on PM over ‘race-baiting’ retweet by Dawn Butler that targeted new Tory leader"
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race: -Late-deciders breaking for them -Turnout among young and Black voters -People voting Dem for first time -Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
"Starmer refuses to take whip from Labour MP who shared ‘white supremacy’ post about Badenoch Pressure had grown on PM over ‘race-baiting’ retweet by Dawn Butler that targeted new Tory leader"
Shades of 2020 US blue shift in the Moldova results tonight. Sandu is still a smidge behind the Putinist at 90% counted, but the last 10% looks like being overwhelmingly for her (diaspora and Chisinau)
Same shift happened in the referendum a few weeks ago. Fingers crossed.
Presidential national security adviser Stanislav Secrieru said Russia had organised buses and large charter flights to bring voters to polling stations.
Bomb scares had briefly disrupted voting in Moldova, at UK polling stations in Liverpool and Northampton and at Frankfurt and Kaiserslautern in Germany, he added.
Northampton seems an unlikely place to host a polling station for a foreign election?
There's a big enough Moldovan community to support stand up comedy nights:
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
Travelling under water, out of sight.
I think @MoonRabbit believes moderate Republicans are quietly voting Kamala.
I don't know. The mood music is good for Kamala this critical weekend, but are we listening to the wrong song?.
Selzer is a poll of 808 people, but seems to have massively moved the markets in a vote likely to have 150 000 000 voters.
Re the Selzer poll, what it would have to implicitly suggest is that people are no longer motivated by what they think about the economy (where Trump has a lead generally) but by abortion / the threat to democracy argument (where Harris leads).
That is possible but, given what Americans think about inflation at the moment and how they view Trump's four years in office on the economic front, that is a hell of a change.
I guess this is particularly true in Iowa as it's had relatively low inflation (see this Nate Silver tweet https://unrollnow.com/status/1852890487297843582 ) as well as exceedingly rabid anti-abortion laws.
So from that point of view you can kind of see how Selzer could be right and everybody else could also be right about other states and the national picture. (But you still have to explain the Emerson Iowa polling...)
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
Travelling under water, out of sight.
I think @MoonRabbit believes moderate Republicans are quietly voting Kamala.
I don't know. The mood music is good for Kamala this critical weekend, but are we listening to the wrong song?.
Selzer is a poll of 808 people, but seems to have massively moved the markets in a vote likely to have 150 000 000 voters.
Re the Selzer poll, what it would have to implicitly suggest is that people are no longer motivated by what they think about the economy (where Trump has a lead generally) but by abortion / the threat to democracy argument (where Harris leads).
That is possible but, given what Americans think about inflation at the moment and how they view Trump's four years in office on the economic front, that is a hell of a change.
Polling on the economy has been much closer in recent weeks, some polls even putting Harris in front on key economic issues.
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
I never figured out "Dutch Salute"
You aren’t the only one. Dutch Salute, Guess Boris’ Weight, and Viewcode’s Betting Shop Lament are three PB wonders that I fear will ever elude me.
Betting Shop Lament is surely self-explanatory. If you've ever been the last one out with nothing in your pocket ... you just lost your phone on the 5.15 at Doncaster.
Insisting on betting only in shops then whining publicly that you can’t get a bet on for two days because you are too busy to get to the shops is… somewhat niche. But then, as I say, I fear I’m missing something. It is probably linked to Boris’s BMI last time he was in Amsterdam.
"Starmer refuses to take whip from Labour MP who shared ‘white supremacy’ post about Badenoch Pressure had grown on PM over ‘race-baiting’ retweet by Dawn Butler that targeted new Tory leader"
"The Times/Siena poll does reflect the Republican advantage in early voting. Republicans have a two-point edge by party registration among early voters in the Times/Siena poll in Nevada, but early voters overall nonetheless say they back Ms. Harris by five points, as she has a wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots."
According to Ralston at 02/11/2024 16:45 it was Dem 357504, Rep 402032, Oth 301293, Total 1060829
If we reassign others to Dem/Rep 52.5/47.5 we get Dem 515683, Rep 545146, Oth 0, Total 1060829. Not only does she have to pull more down from the others but her turnout has to start, y'know, turning out.
The question is how do the others break. I believe the others are disproportionately young so could be disproportionately Harris.
If they break 60/40 to Harris then its 538,280 to Harris and 522,549 to Trump. A Harris lead of 15,730
Impossible to know until we start to get counts.
Moderate Rep are snorkelling. They will express surprise and disgust with their MAGA friends, at a result their own actions created, whilst laughing inside. There is only 1 way Ralston could see this if he tried, and that is, if so much of the expected final vote is already cast, how come so much polling this week still gives the state to Kam?
The Rumsfields and Bush Tribes were in the Big Teepee in 2016 - and it was a bit much to expect them to come out against a sitting President from their party. But they are outside the tent now. The Lincoln Project has more bite in this election than before.
I’ve been away from PB too long. Pray tell, what does snorkelling mean in this context?
Travelling under water, out of sight.
I think @MoonRabbit believes moderate Republicans are quietly voting Kamala.
I don't know. The mood music is good for Kamala this critical weekend, but are we listening to the wrong song?.
Selzer is a poll of 808 people, but seems to have massively moved the markets in a vote likely to have 150 000 000 voters.
Re the Selzer poll, what it would have to implicitly suggest is that people are no longer motivated by what they think about the economy (where Trump has a lead generally) but by abortion / the threat to democracy argument (where Harris leads).
That is possible but, given what Americans think about inflation at the moment and how they view Trump's four years in office on the economic front, that is a hell of a change.
The problem there is that inflation is not reported in enough detail that you can say that inflation is an actual issue in Iowa?
It's perfectly possible that inflation isn't as obvious there as it is in say New York or California..
I know that's the case around here - a meal out here is half the price it is down South..
Here’s the state of play: Several people close to Netanyahu have been arrested, or are preparing to be, for sharing embellished or fabricated intel to @JewishChron & @BILD designed to scupper a hostage deal. 1/4
A sizeable minority of Catholics dispute the Catholicism of the Pope. See Opus Dei. Mind you there are Catholics who find Opus Dei a bit Protestant…
Has anyone checked what Opus Dei and chums make of Trump? And bears?
A group called Court Accountability run by a man called Alex Aronson have put forward - to my eye somewhat credibly - that Opus Dei people may have been involved in manipulating appointments to the Supreme Court.
IIRC - and it was several weeks ago I heard this interview so I may be misremembering - the Chief Spider of the Federalist Society has links.
Comments
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2022/06/28/americans-complex-views-on-gender-identity-and-transgender-issues/
Selzer vs 2020 exit poll crosstabs.
Senior Women: D+35/D+6
Senior Men: R+2/R+32
Indies: D+7/D+4
Women: D+20/D+3
Men: R+14/R+19
Rurals: R+20/R+28
Suburbs: D+23/R+3
No College: R+12/R+17
College: D+30/D+7
Everyone, even Ann Selzer, is fallible, and I am not going to poll pick. But there is a danger in going after the younger male vote and taking their fathers and grandfathers for granted.
Just popped back in on a night when the odious fash-curious Judith Chalmers wannabe is not posting. I might pop back on another night he's out! Hope you're all well
https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/georgia-election-democrats/
(short version - Democrats are encouraged by the early voting stats but the apparatus that won them 2020 seems to have collapsed).
Thus here is WA one could (or not) refer to our former, still living govs as "Governor Locke" and "Governor Gregoire".
But hardly obligatory, mostly what feels right, to you or them.
For example, Nelson Rockefeller's last and highest (in his case unelected) office was Vice President of the United States. BUT nobody called him "Vice President" (or even Veep) after 1976; much more common (but again NOT required) was "Governor" even though he left that job in 1974.
https://www.youtube.com/@siennahubertross
Good to see you back.
2024 Early vote: 2,983k
2020 Total vote: 5,539k
2024 Gender split: Women 55, Men 45
So early vote % not nearly as high as GA or NC. But it's still substantial and likely a touch over 50% of total vote.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1853183940254990341?s=46
Bomb scares had briefly disrupted voting in Moldova, at UK polling stations in Liverpool and Northampton and at Frankfurt and Kaiserslautern in Germany, he added.
Northampton seems an unlikely place to host a polling station for a foreign election?
If the lines Tuesday look broadly similar by gender, then Harris is in a reallly good place.
BTW, am I the only PBer who ever heard/saw Bill Monoe performing in the flesh? In my case, at his "farm" in Bean Blossom, Indiana.
It looks like she also had a poll in September of that year which showed a similarly big lead among women, but it had faded by election day.
https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-president-donald-trump-leads-joe-biden/6061937002/
“We saw a huge gender gap that benefited Biden in September,” Selzer said. “And while there is still a big gap among men — they’re going for Trump by a 24-point margin — it's just a 9-point margin for Biden with women. And so there's just an imbalance there. Before, we saw mirror images of each other.”
Related: Here's who women, men are donating to in Iowa's US Senate, House races
Biden is leading with two groups of voters that Trump carried in 2016: those with a college degree (50% to 40%) and women without a college degree (49% to 43%). Biden is also leading in the suburbs (47% to 43%).
But Trump has mostly maintained the support of demographic groups he carried in Iowa in 2016. Today, he leads with men 56% to 32%; with whites 48% to 43%; with those without a college degree 54% to 35%; and with white evangelicals 72% to 20%.
@Moreincommon_
voting intention. All polling post budget, pre Badenoch election as leader. Labour lead by 2pts
🌹 Lab 28 (+1)
🌳Con 26 (-1)
🔶 Lib Dem 14 (+1)
➡️ Reform UK 18 (-3)
🌎Green 8 (+1)
🟡 SNP 3 (+1)
Dates - 30/10-1/11 Changes with: 9-10/10 N= 2,007 GB
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1853059016462598211
Is the high female lead in early voting a new thing this year? Or is it business as usual?
Assuming the same is still true, I would expect Iowans to prefer political promises to work over promises to fight.
Trump: “You have one of the best of all right here. David McCormick. Where is David? Is he around someplace?”
(Dave McCormick is running for office in Pennsylvania. Trump is in North Carolina)
https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1853186769363063023
Since 1948, no Democrat has claimed the White House without winning Pennsylvania. For @VP Harris, a victory there would most likely seal the deal. So, we’ve been polling the state this weekend, we'll wrap the fieldwork & share the results with you tomorrow.
https://x.com/DamianSurvation/status/1853187286734897305
Has anyone checked what Opus Dei and chums make of Trump? And bears?
Reading the tea leaves in Silver State elections is as much an art as a science; indeed more!
Selzer: The emperor has no clothes.
One of them will be right by 6th November.
Driver 8.
Sublime.
Note that of course THEY consider themselve to be the only "true Catholics". Sound familiar?
https://x.com/AndrewBowie_MP/status/1853144504704090329
Hopefully we can discuss the election for a bit before Billy Blackshirt returns in another guise.
I think @MoonRabbit believes moderate Republicans are quietly voting Kamala.
I don't know. The mood music is good for Kamala this critical weekend, but are we listening to the wrong song?.
Selzer is a poll of 808 people, but seems to have massively moved the markets in a vote likely to have 150 000 000 voters.
Harris camp still believes it's poised to win close race:
-Late-deciders breaking for them
-Turnout among young and Black voters
-People voting Dem for first time
-Groundgame: “There’s no place in any battleground state where our organization isn’t as fulsome as it needs to be”
https://x.com/mviser/status/1853189509455757526
Every time someone announces that they are the ultimate ultra ultra ultra Catholic, someone says “hold my beer”
This applies to everything. Did you know there are groups who declare that ISIS are a bunch of slackers on the whole Islamist thing?
The Lieutenant of Inchmore is very fucking funny for exactly this reason.
But I don't know. My hunch is worth jack shit.
https://xcancel.com/antiquarianmuse/status/1853070980878352810
Fuck knows.
PB doesn't NEED me or anyone else to post regularly on here, or even read the site, but the mods can take feedback that engagement their site may be damaged by the threat of being bullied by a man who calmly walked up to the line marked "racist" and jauntily skipped over it.
https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/09/22/iowa-poll-donald-trump-joe-biden-tied-iowa-presidential-race-2020/5839311002/
TrumpsTaxes
@TrumpsTaxes
Omg they did a male version of the ‘secret vote’ ad and it’s even better than the female version.
https://x.com/TrumpsTaxes/status/1853093279283188135
"Starmer refuses to take whip from Labour MP who shared ‘white supremacy’ post about Badenoch
Pressure had grown on PM over ‘race-baiting’ retweet by Dawn Butler that targeted new Tory leader"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/03/starmer-urged-discipline-dawn-butler-race-baiting-post-kemi/
By their nature social media platforms are always going to be cesspits.
The winning move is not to play.
MY point is that "ultra" or "ultra-ultra-ultra" Catholics are a minority of total Americans who go to mass regularly. Let alone of total self-IDed RCs including those who do NOT attend regularly.
Like their poster-child JD Vance, they are aberant weirdos, theologically-ideological speaking.
Other than their poll putting Trump ahead and their electoral votes prediction, the top five articles:
"With Billions Spent, Can The U.S. Justify Its Strategy In Ukraine?"
"Former Democrats, First-Time Voters Flock To Trump Rally in Michigan"
"Will Tuesday’s Vote Counts Be Another Sham Biden-Harris Statistic?!"
"The Post-Election Temper Tantrum" [NB - clicking on this reveals it's about an expected Democrat tantrum]
"Abortion Is Built On Fraud: A Response To The New York Times"
Then the "Lead Articles" double down on this.
Wow.
Stoianoglo 51.19, Sandu 48.89
But Sandu wins overseas vote (still being counted) approx 80:20 so overall result will be an easy Sandu win.
Final result will be approx 54:46.
https://pv.cec.md/cec-presidential-results-tour2.html
That is possible but, given what Americans think about inflation at the moment and how they view Trump's four years in office on the economic front, that is a hell of a change.
One of my favourite plays. Saw Chris Pine give a sublime performance a few years ago
Edit: goodness me! 2010!!
Not to be arses. Because our food hadn't arrived. The Sundance Film Festival, Park City, Utah - so many stars, nobody gets to pull "Do you know who I am?" shit. Quite refeshing.
To be fair to him, he just waited without any gripes.
Doesn’t matter how ultra you are, there’s always someone who will out ultra you.
And they are always weirdos.
Edit:
The wiki page for 2020 says 15% of votes were cast from overseas.
The comic bit will be when a white Labour person gets caught repeating some of this.
It’s inevitable.
https://www.iabilet.ro/bilete-northampton-stand-up-cu-tutu-adi-bobo-manolescu-si-tinta-98005/
So from that point of view you can kind of see how Selzer could be right and everybody else could also be right about other states and the national picture. (But you still have to explain the Emerson Iowa polling...)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/10/25/harris-vs-trump-on-the-economy-trumps-lead-shrinks-in-latest-polls/
Maybe more Americans understand the impact of tariffs than we gave them credit for.
It's perfectly possible that inflation isn't as obvious there as it is in say New York or California..
I know that's the case around here - a meal out here is half the price it is down South..
IIRC - and it was several weeks ago I heard this interview so I may be misremembering - the Chief Spider of the Federalist Society has links.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9wJ1FuELIQ
And Guardian piece on the Opus Dei links of the President of the Heritage Foundation, Kevin Roberts:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/26/kevin-roberts-project-2025-opus-dei