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The public ‘prefer’ Jenrick to the even more unpopular Badenoch – politicalbetting.com

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  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,585
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    I'll raise you Alexander Johnson. He did of course facilitate Truss.
    It's a pretty competitive field for worst ever Tory leader, but surely Sunak has the unique accolade of the heaviest defeat for the party since universal suffrage?
    That would mean Churchill would be one of the worst Tory leaders ever too. Good luck arguing that case...
    Fought three elections, lost two. Spent most of his time obsessing about foreign affairs to the neglect of important domestic policy. Failed to groom his successor properly. Spent most of his last 18 months in power in such a state of mental decay that the Cabinet used to come out of meetings swearing at his confusion.

    He did a few good things too, but yeah, you could make that case.
    Yes, just merely saved Britain from Nazi invasion in 1940 and helped defeat Hitler. Not much of a legacy really
    Saved the country from the majority in the Tory Party that wanted to negotiate a surrender, I am sure you meant to say.
    It was the warmongers in the Labour Party who insisted on Neville Chamberlain stepping down as Prime Minister.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,907
    Scott_xP said:

    Political Polls
    @PpollingNumbers
    General Election Poll

    🔴 Arizona - Trump +1
    🔴 Georgia - Trump +2
    🔴 North Carolina - Trump +1
    🔵 Nevada - Harris +1
    🔵 Pennsylvania - Harris +2
    🔵 Michigan - Harris +2
    🔵 Wisconsin - Harris +3

    YouGov (Times) #B - LV - 10/31

    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1852444640181715175

    Arizona and Georgia moving towards Trump vs 2020, whilst Wisconsin breaks the other way, with Nevada/Pennslyvania/Michigan static. Super tight.

    If that one is spot on then the biggest movement would be Wisconsin at over 2%, I wonder if there is any particular reason it would (on the margins at play in these states) see a bigger swing than the others.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,012
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Let’s be fair - somewhat - to Labour (not something you’ll often hear me say).

    The increases in Defence and Justice budgets are good things. Long overdue. @TSE was right that successive Conservative PM’s might be branded “guilty men” if we end up in a shooting war.

    Scrapping the WFA is correct. And, the triple lock must go.

    The last government was awful, and handed a ton of problems to Labour.

    Labour has 412 MP’s. They can take any decision they wish. Let’s pray they make the right ones.

    A noble sentiment but the Budget was fiscally and economically reckless, the increases in Defence and Justice are pitiful, and, sadly, they aren't making the right calls on the rest; they haven't touched the triple lock and are splurging on their client groups. And they're actively working against British interests in foreign policy.

    You're right they can do what they like though. Let's just hope the judgement of the electorate rapidly chastens them.
    In part, it’s directed at Conservatives. We have to own our mistakes, before we can expect the public to vote for us.
    If I were Kemi I'd be brave and move to a double-lock early in this parliament, whilst pledging to keep other pensioner benefits.

    As disdain and anger at this government grows I think it's a move she could get away with over 3-4 years, provided it was put in a strong political context of changing times and national challenges.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,585
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Political Polls
    @PpollingNumbers
    General Election Poll

    🔴 Arizona - Trump +1
    🔴 Georgia - Trump +2
    🔴 North Carolina - Trump +1
    🔵 Nevada - Harris +1
    🔵 Pennsylvania - Harris +2
    🔵 Michigan - Harris +2
    🔵 Wisconsin - Harris +3

    YouGov (Times) #B - LV - 10/31

    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1852444640181715175

    Arizona and Georgia moving towards Trump vs 2020, whilst Wisconsin breaks the other way, with Nevada/Pennslyvania/Michigan static. Super tight.

    If that one is spot on then the biggest movement would be Wisconsin at over 2%, I wonder if there is any particular reason it would (on the margins at play in these states) see a bigger swing than the others.

    Trump made an unscheduled visit to Michigan today.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,907
    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @YouGov

    Our final U.S. presidential election MRP has just dropped 👇

    Harris 240 (-10 from mid-Oct)
    Trump 218 (-1)
    Tossups 80 (+11)

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1852460856979734974

    Siri, show me what indecision looks like.
    It is amusing that with all the billions of dollars spent on campaigning, I imagine hundreds of millions on polls and doubtless billions of words written and spoken, a fair few of them on here, nevertheless tossing a $0.01 coin would probably be as good a way of predicting the result at the moment.
    Which is why America needs an intervention to tell them you don't need to spent so damn much, or spend the entirety of the year essentially in campaign mode.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,907
    Foxy said:

    Meanwhile, in "not even bothering to get on the ship, which may say something for its seaworthiness" news,

    Excellent lunch with the FT, you really get a sense of what Cleverly is like person-to-person. Plus Lucy gets an exclusive from him that he WON'T be staying in the Shadow Cabinet.

    https://bsky.app/profile/stephenkb.bsky.social/post/3l7vijcgibl26

    Gosh, that's quite the blow. What will frontline politics be without Jimmy Dimmly - a man so stupid he managed to lend enough voters to lose himself the election.
    It's going to be interesting to see who gets a place in Kemi's shadow cabinet. It's a pretty thin pool to draw on.
    Grab some complete newbies. Why not? Shadow Cabinet don't really face that much blowback if they do poorly, most people even a little interested won't know them, but someone might unexpectedly shine.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Jonathan said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    HIGNFY awful this evening. Barely a joke about Reeves and Starmer's budget beyond bus fares, still mainly at Tories expense.

    Left leaning comedians still can't bring themselves to criticise an increasingly unpopular leftwing government

    Was the same last time Labour were in power. It was only once Iraq came along that BBC comedians felt able to criticise Labour.
    If HYUFD wants more right wing comedians I suppose they could book Trumps Puerto Rican guy to slag off the latest scapegoat.
    Dead Ringers did a fair job of taking the piss out of Reeves.
    Starmer just isn't funny.

    Comics aren't going to fall in love with the Tories any time soon - but they'll fall out of love with Labour before very long..
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871
    rkrkrk said:

    If Labour is going to spend more on defence, I'd like to see a proper strategic review which looks at why defence procurement, even by govt standards, is famously bad.

    At why we have enormous white elephant aircraft carriers that don't seem to be of any use to... you know... defending the country as opposed to looking nice in pictures.

    We try to do too much for too little. Now unfortunately the idiots in charge think "okay we'll either defend half of the country, or the whole country from half the threats". We need to massively increase defence spending. Probably back to somewhere in the region of where it was at the end of the Cold War at around 4%, and at least 3% (1997 levels) ASAP. Threats are rising all over the world, and we have utterly dismal amibitions of 2.5% by 2030.

    If Trump gets elected we could be facing a real crisis regarding defence and security as early as next year. What are we doing to prepare? Sweet FA.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,907

    Utterly deranged.

    Yet again. Just waffling utter nonsense about himself. No pretence that he has to win over people or argue a case.


    Acyn
    @Acyn
    ·
    2m
    Trump: That beautiful white skin that I have would be nice and tan. I have the whitest skin because I never have time to go out in the sun. I have that beautiful white. It could’ve been beautiful tan.

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1852469023663091826

    He does love to talk about himself true. What's less clear is why so many others love it as well, even he would tone it down a little if he was getting blowback for rambling about how great he is to himself.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,951
    rkrkrk said:

    If Labour is going to spend more on defence, I'd like to see a proper strategic review which looks at why defence procurement, even by govt standards, is famously bad.

    That won't happen because everybody knows that a big part of the reason is interference by politicians in matters they're not remotely competent to decide, and, if there's one characteristic of politicians, is that they never want to admit they're shit at what they do.

    So they will keep the ability to direct public money to inefficient national champions and marginal constituencies, and the MoD will continue buying rubbish like SA80s or the Warrior upgrades.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,012
    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    Completely lacking in self-awareness, too.
    Liz Truss viewed any opposition to her as a sign of an individual being in on the conspiracy.

    She was just utterly deranged.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,012
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Isn’t it amazing she still has the capacity to do harm. Isn’t there someone in her life who could have a quiet word?
    Fantasy seems to be the only way she maintains her self-esteem.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    kle4 said:

    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @YouGov

    Our final U.S. presidential election MRP has just dropped 👇

    Harris 240 (-10 from mid-Oct)
    Trump 218 (-1)
    Tossups 80 (+11)

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1852460856979734974

    Siri, show me what indecision looks like.
    It is amusing that with all the billions of dollars spent on campaigning, I imagine hundreds of millions on polls and doubtless billions of words written and spoken, a fair few of them on here, nevertheless tossing a $0.01 coin would probably be as good a way of predicting the result at the moment.
    Which is why America needs an intervention to tell them you don't need to spent so damn much, or spend the entirety of the year essentially in campaign mode.
    I am sure that the citizens will be glad to be back to watching pharma ads and no longer being robocalled 6 times a day.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,907
    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    I'll raise you Alexander Johnson. He did of course facilitate Truss.
    It's a pretty competitive field for worst ever Tory leader, but surely Sunak has the unique accolade of the heaviest defeat for the party since universal suffrage?
    The music stopped when Sunak was in charge. It should have stopped years earlier. Rishi Sunak was a lot better than his two predecessors and probably about equal with Theresa May.
    If they'd picked Sunak before Truss detonated a dirty bomb under the economy, he would probably have lost - the legacy of Partygate made that inevitable - but it is highly unlikely he would have lost so badly.
    Probably, but then that may also be true of if they had rumbled on with a rapidly declining Boris, or left Truss in place.

    The damage caused by the removal to their credibility I think was much worse than they anticipated, and his own performance then compounded things. It could be the case that any option other than rapid turnover of leaders would have meant a somewhat lesser loss.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Let’s be fair - somewhat - to Labour (not something you’ll often hear me say).

    The increases in Defence and Justice budgets are good things. Long overdue. @TSE was right that successive Conservative PM’s might be branded “guilty men” if we end up in a shooting war.

    Scrapping the WFA is correct. And, the triple lock must go.

    The last government was awful, and handed a ton of problems to Labour.

    Labour has 412 MP’s. They can take any decision they wish. Let’s pray they make the right ones.

    A noble sentiment but the Budget was fiscally and economically reckless, the increases in Defence and Justice are pitiful, and, sadly, they aren't making the right calls on the rest; they haven't touched the triple lock and are splurging on their client groups. And they're actively working against British interests in foreign policy.

    You're right they can do what they like though. Let's just hope the judgement of the electorate rapidly chastens them.
    In part, it’s directed at Conservatives. We have to own our mistakes, before we can expect the public to vote for us.
    If I were Kemi I'd be brave and move to a double-lock early in this parliament, whilst pledging to keep other pensioner benefits.

    As disdain and anger at this government grows I think it's a move she could get away with over 3-4 years, provided it was put in a strong political context of changing times and national challenges.
    Which two locks?

    I think my endpoint would be to average pay and inflation each year, but once basic pensions have reached a somewhat higher level than now. It would be good to get a shared agreement on what that level is.

    (And, annoying as it is, I suspect that means-testing doesn't work. It risks clobbering any incentive for lots of people to save anything.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,907

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Political Polls
    @PpollingNumbers
    General Election Poll

    🔴 Arizona - Trump +1
    🔴 Georgia - Trump +2
    🔴 North Carolina - Trump +1
    🔵 Nevada - Harris +1
    🔵 Pennsylvania - Harris +2
    🔵 Michigan - Harris +2
    🔵 Wisconsin - Harris +3

    YouGov (Times) #B - LV - 10/31

    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1852444640181715175

    Arizona and Georgia moving towards Trump vs 2020, whilst Wisconsin breaks the other way, with Nevada/Pennslyvania/Michigan static. Super tight.

    If that one is spot on then the biggest movement would be Wisconsin at over 2%, I wonder if there is any particular reason it would (on the margins at play in these states) see a bigger swing than the others.

    Trump made an unscheduled visit to Michigan today.
    Well, every single one of those states is clearly in play for both sides.

    What would be fun (depending on one's preferred outcome of course) is whether any other states could throw a curveball and shock everyone. Of course, to be such a shock there must not be obvious evidence of an upset, so it'd be very hard to predict from some less obvious signs.

    The next closest states (or EC vote) were:

    Florida - 3.36% - R
    Texas - 5.58% - R
    Nebraska's second congressional district - 6.50% - D
    Minnesota - 7.11% - D
    New Hampshire - 7.35% - D
    Main's second congressional disctrict - 7.44% - R

    There's some ballot measures Dems are hoping will help in Florida I believe but I don't think anyone has suggested its genuinely in play, and the rest just look too much outside of landslide that the pollsters have all missed, sadly.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Will Badenoch (or Jenrick if he wins) be the longest serving Conservative leader since Cameron?


    * They need to be if they want to take part in the next election ....
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,090
    Jonathan said:

    It was the unforced error of Truss’ demise that makes her standout as spectacularly abysmal. Sunak played a bad hand poorly, but Truss out of nowhere decided to destroy herself.

    Obviously Boris is utterly malign, but within the narrow confines of his own standards by winning an election he stands ahead of both Sunak and Truss.

    Truss forgot the first and most important Thatcherite lesson - you can't buck the market.

    I remember quite clearly the astonishment I felt when, during one of the leadership debates, she blithely declared that she was going to renegotiate the interest paid on British government debt to pay for her tax cuts.

    As I am finding out to my personal* cost, no-one is obliged to lend you money, or provide you with a service, but Truss seemed to think she could command the bond market to lend her more money, at a lower rate of interest. And they say that socialists don't understand the economy!

    * A life insurance company has declined to provide us with the insurance we need to draw down a mortgage until after Christmas at the earliest, and I fear that the owners of the house we have agreed to buy will not wait any longer after waiting for nearly four months already.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,907
    FF43 said:

    Will Badenoch (or Jenrick if he wins) be the longest serving Conservative leader since Cameron?


    * They need to be if they want to take part in the next election ....

    Starmer might decide to go early, you never know.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    Will Badenoch (or Jenrick if he wins) be the longest serving Conservative leader since Cameron?


    * They need to be if they want to take part in the next election ....

    Starmer might decide to go early, you never know.
    As a favour?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Utter Luddite idiocy.

    BREAKING: I asked @SpeakerJohnson if he’ll try to repeal the CHIPS Act if Trump wins and they have control of Congress.

    “I expect that we probably will.”..

    https://x.com/lukeradel/status/1852457020877582462

    It's like they deliberately want to tank the economy. Same with tariffs.

    Utter pillocks.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,012

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Let’s be fair - somewhat - to Labour (not something you’ll often hear me say).

    The increases in Defence and Justice budgets are good things. Long overdue. @TSE was right that successive Conservative PM’s might be branded “guilty men” if we end up in a shooting war.

    Scrapping the WFA is correct. And, the triple lock must go.

    The last government was awful, and handed a ton of problems to Labour.

    Labour has 412 MP’s. They can take any decision they wish. Let’s pray they make the right ones.

    A noble sentiment but the Budget was fiscally and economically reckless, the increases in Defence and Justice are pitiful, and, sadly, they aren't making the right calls on the rest; they haven't touched the triple lock and are splurging on their client groups. And they're actively working against British interests in foreign policy.

    You're right they can do what they like though. Let's just hope the judgement of the electorate rapidly chastens them.
    In part, it’s directed at Conservatives. We have to own our mistakes, before we can expect the public to vote for us.
    If I were Kemi I'd be brave and move to a double-lock early in this parliament, whilst pledging to keep other pensioner benefits.

    As disdain and anger at this government grows I think it's a move she could get away with over 3-4 years, provided it was put in a strong political context of changing times and national challenges.
    Which two locks?

    I think my endpoint would be to average pay and inflation each year, but once basic pensions have reached a somewhat higher level than now. It would be good to get a shared agreement on what that level is.

    (And, annoying as it is, I suspect that means-testing doesn't work. It risks clobbering any incentive for lots of people to save anything.)
    Inflation or 2.5%, so average earnings is excluded.

    It would then track to 2.5% in general, since the government target is inflation at 2%.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,090
    Nigelb said:

    Utter Luddite idiocy.

    BREAKING: I asked @SpeakerJohnson if he’ll try to repeal the CHIPS Act if Trump wins and they have control of Congress.

    “I expect that we probably will.”..

    https://x.com/lukeradel/status/1852457020877582462

    It's like they deliberately want to tank the economy. Same with tariffs.

    Utter pillocks.

    If the Democrats are in favour of something, they are against.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,012
    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    HIGNFY awful this evening. Barely a joke about Reeves and Starmer's budget beyond bus fares, still mainly at Tories expense.

    Left leaning comedians still can't bring themselves to criticise an increasingly unpopular leftwing government

    Was the same last time Labour were in power. It was only once Iraq came along that BBC comedians felt able to criticise Labour.
    If HYUFD wants more right wing comedians I suppose they could book Trumps Puerto Rican guy to slag off the latest scapegoat.
    Dead Ringers did a fair job of taking the piss out of Reeves.
    Starmer just isn't funny.

    Comics aren't going to fall in love with the Tories any time soon - but they'll fall out of love with Labour before very long..
    Comics seem mainly interested in winning the approval of other Comics.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,406
    Nigelb said:

    Utter Luddite idiocy.

    BREAKING: I asked @SpeakerJohnson if he’ll try to repeal the CHIPS Act if Trump wins and they have control of Congress.

    “I expect that we probably will.”..

    https://x.com/lukeradel/status/1852457020877582462

    It's like they deliberately want to tank the economy. Same with tariffs.

    Utter pillocks.

    Torch the earth. Nothing that Biden did must remain.

    Indeed, nothing that any president has done in a hundred years must remain. The Cult wants to burn the republic to the ground and then worship the anointed one as he ushers in the Second Coming for the blessed. Round up the not real americans. Lock up the women. Let the billionaires decide all the laws.

    In four days the future of the great experiment in democracy will be decided.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,406
    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    Will Badenoch (or Jenrick if he wins) be the longest serving Conservative leader since Cameron?


    * They need to be if they want to take part in the next election ....

    Starmer might decide to go early, you never know.
    As a favour?
    Labour once again have a problem. There is no obvious successor.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,907

    Nigelb said:

    Utter Luddite idiocy.

    BREAKING: I asked @SpeakerJohnson if he’ll try to repeal the CHIPS Act if Trump wins and they have control of Congress.

    “I expect that we probably will.”..

    https://x.com/lukeradel/status/1852457020877582462

    It's like they deliberately want to tank the economy. Same with tariffs.

    Utter pillocks.

    Torch the earth. Nothing that Biden did must remain.

    Indeed, nothing that any president has done in a hundred years must remain. The Cult wants to burn the republic to the ground and then worship the anointed one as he ushers in the Second Coming for the blessed. Round up the not real americans. Lock up the women. Let the billionaires decide all the laws.

    In four days the future of the great experiment in democracy will be decided.
    It'll take more than four days, unless it's a landslide for Harris. Slow votes, ballots still coming in, dozens of legal challenges, uncertain top court - unless it's a clear Trump win, don't expect it to be decided until early January!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,406
    You have got to be fucking kidding me.

    Jeez.

    A once great national newspaper reduced to this shite.

    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    31m
    TELEGRAPH: Musk: PM is wrong on farm tax raid #TomorrowsPapersToday

  • You have got to be fucking kidding me.

    Jeez.

    A once great national newspaper reduced to this shite.

    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    31m
    TELEGRAPH: Musk: PM is wrong on farm tax raid #TomorrowsPapersToday

    Yeah I saw that. What does the Lord Elon know about it?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    Completely lacking in self-awareness, too.
    Liz Truss viewed any opposition to her as a sign of an individual being in on the conspiracy.

    She was just utterly deranged.
    Was?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,478
    I note that TRUSS is back.

    Some of us predicted it.

    And there she is.

    TRUSS.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,478

    You have got to be fucking kidding me.

    Jeez.

    A once great national newspaper reduced to this shite.

    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    31m
    TELEGRAPH: Musk: PM is wrong on farm tax raid #TomorrowsPapersToday

    LOL. What a sad sight.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,478
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    I see the Daily Mail has introduced paywalls for some articles. I'm not paying to read it.
    Just use the archiving sites
  • Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    HIGNFY awful this evening. Barely a joke about Reeves and Starmer's budget beyond bus fares, still mainly at Tories expense.

    Left leaning comedians still can't bring themselves to criticise an increasingly unpopular leftwing government

    Was the same last time Labour were in power. It was only once Iraq came along that BBC comedians felt able to criticise Labour.
    A comedian needing a laugh and applause would only have to say Fatcher and that was it, like a collection of applauding seals.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    dixiedean said:

    15 years and 69 days old Cameron Muir becomes youngest ever FA Cup proper player as he comes on as sub for Notts County.

    "Kameron", sadly. Poor lad!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,907

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    HIGNFY awful this evening. Barely a joke about Reeves and Starmer's budget beyond bus fares, still mainly at Tories expense.

    Left leaning comedians still can't bring themselves to criticise an increasingly unpopular leftwing government

    Was the same last time Labour were in power. It was only once Iraq came along that BBC comedians felt able to criticise Labour.
    A comedian needing a laugh and applause would only have to say Fatcher and that was it, like a collection of applauding seals.
    The right audience and it would get the same reaction today.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,478
    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    HIGNFY awful this evening. Barely a joke about Reeves and Starmer's budget beyond bus fares, still mainly at Tories expense.

    Left leaning comedians still can't bring themselves to criticise an increasingly unpopular leftwing government

    Was the same last time Labour were in power. It was only once Iraq came along that BBC comedians felt able to criticise Labour.
    A comedian needing a laugh and applause would only have to say Fatcher and that was it, like a collection of applauding seals.
    The right audience and it would get the same reaction today.
    FATCHER
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,329

    HYUFD said:

    HIGNFY awful this evening. Barely a joke about Reeves and Starmer's budget beyond bus fares, still mainly at Tories expense.

    Left leaning comedians still can't bring themselves to criticise an increasingly unpopular leftwing government

    There was a whole round about the budget, and later they made fun of Starmer repeatedly calling Rishi Prime Minister. What do you want in half an hour?
    Yet barely a joke about anything negative in it
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,907
    So, what time does the surprise Jenrick win get announced tomorrow?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    Scott_xP said:

    @bpolitics

    Elon Musk lost a bid to move a lawsuit challenging his daily million-dollar giveaway to voters to federal court, putting the lawsuit filed by a progressive Philadelphia district attorney back in front of a state court judge.

    https://x.com/bpolitics/status/1852454129332896166

    Following the Trump playbook, which still does not work :smile: .

    He also failed to turn up in Court, when the Judge had required that all parties be there.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,800

    I’m now starting to wonder whether @HYUFD ’s oft tipped Harris EC win PV loss could be VALUE.

    For clarity, I think it’s unlikely to happen but BX has it available at 36.

    Perhaps worth a tickle?

    Although I am sure @HYUFD has made good calls and will do so again, I think that spot was spotted by one of the absolutely lovely and article-publishing mods of this parish.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,354
    A sitcom based on Liz Truss could get a lot of mileage. Jennifer Saunders should team up with a political writer and make a pilot show.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,329
    edited November 1

    You have got to be fucking kidding me.

    Jeez.

    A once great national newspaper reduced to this shite.

    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    31m
    TELEGRAPH: Musk: PM is wrong on farm tax raid #TomorrowsPapersToday

    Elon is absolutely right. Starmer and Reeves have betrayed our farmers, their families and our food security and a 100 Labour MPs in rural seats will be out of a job after the next GE as a result
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,800

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    Completely lacking in self-awareness, too.
    Liz Truss viewed any opposition to her as a sign of an individual being in on the conspiracy.

    She was just utterly deranged.
    Was?
    Was, is, and will always be, blessed be the Truss.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,329
    Charles Moore

    'A government’s first Budget sets the tone for the whole Parliament – Reeves has flunked it'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/01/a-governments-first-budget-sets-the-tone/
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,697
    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bpolitics

    Elon Musk lost a bid to move a lawsuit challenging his daily million-dollar giveaway to voters to federal court, putting the lawsuit filed by a progressive Philadelphia district attorney back in front of a state court judge.

    https://x.com/bpolitics/status/1852454129332896166

    Following the Trump playbook, which still does not work :smile: .

    He also failed to turn up in Court, when the Judge had required that all parties be there.
    And after he said he’d turn up.
  • HYUFD said:

    You have got to be fucking kidding me.

    Jeez.

    A once great national newspaper reduced to this shite.

    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    31m
    TELEGRAPH: Musk: PM is wrong on farm tax raid #TomorrowsPapersToday

    Elon is absolutely right, Starmer and Reeves have betrayed our farmers, their families and our food security and a 100 Labour MPs in rural seats will be out of a job after the next GE as a result
    I note your anger. I also note the anger of our farming and fishing communities who can detail - with reams of evidence - how YOUR party had ALREADY betrayed them.

    So what is the point in you?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,329
    edited November 1
    kle4 said:

    So, what time does the surprise Jenrick win get announced tomorrow?

    May have to be delayed if so to give CCHQ staff enough time to helicopter off the roof of the building to safety and exile in Sunak towers before Jenrick, Frost, Rees Mogg, Francois and Dorries and their ERG hordes storm the building and take over
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,478
    viewcode said:

    I’m now starting to wonder whether @HYUFD ’s oft tipped Harris EC win PV loss could be VALUE.

    For clarity, I think it’s unlikely to happen but BX has it available at 36.

    Perhaps worth a tickle?

    Although I am sure @HYUFD has made good calls and will do so again, I think that spot was spotted by one of the absolutely lovely and article-publishing mods of this parish.
    My only memory is of @HYUFD tipping it (which he has done frequently). Apologies if I failed to credit its orginator?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,329
    edited November 1

    HYUFD said:

    You have got to be fucking kidding me.

    Jeez.

    A once great national newspaper reduced to this shite.

    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    31m
    TELEGRAPH: Musk: PM is wrong on farm tax raid #TomorrowsPapersToday

    Elon is absolutely right, Starmer and Reeves have betrayed our farmers, their families and our food security and a 100 Labour MPs in rural seats will be out of a job after the next GE as a result
    I note your anger. I also note the anger of our farming and fishing communities who can detail - with reams of evidence - how YOUR party had ALREADY betrayed them.

    So what is the point in you?
    They got trade deals with Australia etc for exports, they also got a leaving of the CFP which fishing communities wanted.

    This awful government has just taken most farm owners farms and most of their assets built up over generations and destroyed the agricultural industry in this country. There is no comparison
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,686
    Once again, don't assume the Supreme Court will come to Trump's rescue.

    "Supreme court rejects Republican argument on Pennsylvania ballot counting: AP

    The supreme court on Friday rejected an emergency appeal from Republicans that could have led to thousands of provisional ballots not being counted in Pennsylvania, the Associated Press reports.

    The justices left in place a state supreme court ruling that elections officials must count provisional ballots cast by voters whose mail-in ballots were rejected."

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/nov/01/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-states-campaign-us-politics-latest-updates
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    Have we worked out whether Kemi or Jenrick has won yet?

    The results will be announced tomorrow.
    If Kemi wins and it's true that four or five Cleverly supporters voted for her in error she's going to be leader with the support of only about 35 of her MPs. Not a very comfortable position I would have thought
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,354
    JD Vance is telling people to go out and vote early and pointing them to this website: "Swamp Them with Votes. Make it Too Big to Rig."

    https://swampthevoteusa.com/
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    You have got to be fucking kidding me.

    Jeez.

    A once great national newspaper reduced to this shite.

    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    31m
    TELEGRAPH: Musk: PM is wrong on farm tax raid #TomorrowsPapersToday

    Elon is absolutely right, Starmer and Reeves have betrayed our farmers, their families and our food security and a 100 Labour MPs in rural seats will be out of a job after the next GE as a result
    I note your anger. I also note the anger of our farming and fishing communities who can detail - with reams of evidence - how YOUR party had ALREADY betrayed them.

    So what is the point in you?
    They got trade deals with Australia etc for exports, they also got a leaving of the CFP which fishing communities wanted.

    This awful government has just taken most farm owners farms and most of their assets built up over generations and destroyed the agricultural industry in this country. There is no comparison
    Clueless.

    Neither of us voted for this government. And they have provided us an endless stream of comedy gold since getting MASSIVELY elected. Point is that however bad they are - and they are *bad* - your lot were so much worse.

    Until you understand that, your party is utterly doomed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,907
    MikeL said:

    Once again, don't assume the Supreme Court will come to Trump's rescue.

    "Supreme court rejects Republican argument on Pennsylvania ballot counting: AP

    The supreme court on Friday rejected an emergency appeal from Republicans that could have led to thousands of provisional ballots not being counted in Pennsylvania, the Associated Press reports.

    The justices left in place a state supreme court ruling that elections officials must count provisional ballots cast by voters whose mail-in ballots were rejected."

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/nov/01/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-states-campaign-us-politics-latest-updates

    I don't assume they definitely will. But I think the chance is higher than 4 years ago with the connivance of State houses and a lot of willing prep work from Trump supporters than last time, to give greater pretext.

    If they do something, and it's not certain, they'll pick their moments carefully, as they are not dumb.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    edited November 1
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Political Polls
    @PpollingNumbers
    General Election Poll

    🔴 Arizona - Trump +1
    🔴 Georgia - Trump +2
    🔴 North Carolina - Trump +1
    🔵 Nevada - Harris +1
    🔵 Pennsylvania - Harris +2
    🔵 Michigan - Harris +2
    🔵 Wisconsin - Harris +3

    YouGov (Times) #B - LV - 10/31

    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1852444640181715175

    Arizona and Georgia moving towards Trump vs 2020, whilst Wisconsin breaks the other way, with Nevada/Pennslyvania/Michigan static. Super tight.

    If that one is spot on then the biggest movement would be Wisconsin at over 2%, I wonder if there is any particular reason it would (on the margins at play in these states) see a bigger swing than the others.

    Trump made an unscheduled visit to Michigan today.
    Well, every single one of those states is clearly in play for both sides.

    What would be fun (depending on one's preferred outcome of course) is whether any other states could throw a curveball and shock everyone. Of course, to be such a shock there must not be obvious evidence of an upset, so it'd be very hard to predict from some less obvious signs.

    The next closest states (or EC vote) were:

    Florida - 3.36% - R
    Texas - 5.58% - R
    Nebraska's second congressional district - 6.50% - D
    Minnesota - 7.11% - D
    New Hampshire - 7.35% - D
    Main's second congressional disctrict - 7.44% - R

    There's some ballot measures Dems are hoping will help in Florida I believe but I don't think anyone has suggested its genuinely in play, and the rest just look too much outside of landslide that the pollsters have all missed, sadly.
    Florida is like 5% Puerto Rican, and it seems like the garbage island thing really cut through. The polling has quite strong numbers for Trump with Latinos, but they're hard to poll so it could be wrong. Even if they happen it's hard to imagine those effects being big enough to make Florida go Dem while PA/MI/WI go GOP, but who knows.

    Texas is one of those bombs that people say might go off one day but never actually goes off. It's not making any audible ticking sounds but maybe don't stand too close?

    NH used to be quite unpredictable, they would give their electoral votes to Trump just to mess with you.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,329
    edited November 1

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    You have got to be fucking kidding me.

    Jeez.

    A once great national newspaper reduced to this shite.

    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    31m
    TELEGRAPH: Musk: PM is wrong on farm tax raid #TomorrowsPapersToday

    Elon is absolutely right, Starmer and Reeves have betrayed our farmers, their families and our food security and a 100 Labour MPs in rural seats will be out of a job after the next GE as a result
    I note your anger. I also note the anger of our farming and fishing communities who can detail - with reams of evidence - how YOUR party had ALREADY betrayed them.

    So what is the point in you?
    They got trade deals with Australia etc for exports, they also got a leaving of the CFP which fishing communities wanted.

    This awful government has just taken most farm owners farms and most of their assets built up over generations and destroyed the agricultural industry in this country. There is no comparison
    Clueless.

    Neither of us voted for this government. And they have provided us an endless stream of comedy gold since getting MASSIVELY elected. Point is that however bad they are - and they are *bad* - your lot were so much worse.

    Until you understand that, your party is utterly doomed.
    They aren't and already voters are starting to wake up to it, hence the first Tory poll lead in almost 3 years in the BMG poll tonight
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    More compact parking arrangements at Regents Park.


    https://x.com/baoigheallain/status/1852267677948997717

    (VW Golf, everyone OK, except the driver's insurance premium next year.)

    If the house had been wearing Hi Viz, he wouldn't have hit it - obviously.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,406

    JD Vance is telling people to go out and vote early and pointing them to this website: "Swamp Them with Votes. Make it Too Big to Rig."

    https://swampthevoteusa.com/

    "taking responsibility for ensuring every Republican and Trump voter in your household casts theirs too."

    Gilead.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,406
    Roger said:

    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    Have we worked out whether Kemi or Jenrick has won yet?

    The results will be announced tomorrow.
    If Kemi wins and it's true that four or five Cleverly supporters voted for her in error she's going to be leader with the support of only about 35 of her MPs. Not a very comfortable position I would have thought
    I'm sure they will rally around.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,354
    edited November 2
    MattW said:

    More compact parking arrangements at Regents Park.


    https://x.com/baoigheallain/status/1852267677948997717

    (VW Golf, everyone OK, except the driver's insurance premium next year.)

    If the house had been wearing Hi Viz, he wouldn't have hit it - obviously.

    Paula Hamilton trying to relive her glory days?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,406
    Hopium latest:


    Simon Rosenberg
    @SimonWDC
    ·
    45m
    Trump losing campaign vibes:
    - Travel to NM and VA. WTF????
    - Escalation of red wave polls - only needed if election not going his way
    - Darker shades of burnt orange
    - lashing out, violent speech
    - Defending NC, map shrinking
    - Teenie weenie crowds 👇

    https://x.com/SimonWDC/status/1852488442048864415
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,406
    biggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles Moore

    'A government’s first Budget sets the tone for the whole Parliament – Reeves has flunked it'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/01/a-governments-first-budget-sets-the-tone/

    Starting to think the Labour Party might not be able to rely on the support of the Telegraph in 2029. Huge news.
    Nor may the Tory party.

    A new owner cometh.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,250
    Roger said:

    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    Have we worked out whether Kemi or Jenrick has won yet?

    The results will be announced tomorrow.
    If Kemi wins and it's true that four or five Cleverly supporters voted for her in error she's going to be leader with the support of only about 35 of her MPs. Not a very comfortable position I would have thought
    It wasn't an error, it was stupidity.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,800
    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    Have we worked out whether Kemi or Jenrick has won yet?

    The results will be announced tomorrow.
    If Kemi wins and it's true that four or five Cleverly supporters voted for her in error she's going to be leader with the support of only about 35 of her MPs. Not a very comfortable position I would have thought
    It wasn't an error, it was stupidity.
    As opposed to the really clever errors everybody else makes? 😃
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,686
    edited November 2
    Ralston has just done his first update of the day - at 5pm Pacific time.

    Dems still 44k behind - Rep lead is holding very steady.

    But today is last day of in person voting (good for Rep) whereas mail (good for Dems) will continue to come in and a lot more is expected.

    But big picture is it looks as if Harris will have to win Independents by approx 5% to win the State.

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,236
    ....

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Isn’t it amazing she still has the capacity to do harm. Isn’t there someone in her life who could have a quiet word?
    Fantasy seems to be the only way she maintains her self-esteem.
    There's an awful lot of projection going on here isn't there?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,250
    What time do we get the Tory result tomorrow/today?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,590
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c79z87wzv2no

    If only this could have been forseen….
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Nigelb said:

    Utter Luddite idiocy.

    BREAKING: I asked @SpeakerJohnson if he’ll try to repeal the CHIPS Act if Trump wins and they have control of Congress.

    “I expect that we probably will.”..

    https://x.com/lukeradel/status/1852457020877582462

    It's like they deliberately want to tank the economy. Same with tariffs.

    Utter pillocks.

    Torch the earth. Nothing that Biden did must remain.

    Indeed, nothing that any president has done in a hundred years must remain. The Cult wants to burn the republic to the ground and then worship the anointed one as he ushers in the Second Coming for the blessed. Round up the not real americans. Lock up the women. Let the billionaires decide all the laws.

    In four days the future of the great experiment in democracy will be decided.
    Well there's that - but there's also the fact that tanking the CHIPS Act would cost several thousand jobs in Arizona.
    Not the smartest thing to emphasise a few days before the election.

    Enough to swing the state, or not ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    What an absolute arse.
    (FWIW, my money would be on Cheney.)

    Trump: Liz Cheney would not fight. I will go with her, wherever she wants, and we will fight. She doesn't have the guts to fight. She's all talk and no action.
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1852473139227509129

    The wuss wouldn't even debate Harris a second time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Are we going to have a thread on the herding?

    I think @MoonRabbit is the expert on herds ?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,800
    Andy_JS said:

    What time do we get the Tory result tomorrow/today?

    I think it's 11am, but I'm not sure.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,703
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: unsure when I'll post the pre-qualifying tosh. Will be today at some point, unless woe occurs.

    The new Conservative leader has two jobs: retain or regain the party's 'natural' supporters and appeal, at least to some degree, to floating voters. Plenty of time to do that, provided the party stops trying to eat its own face.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,150

    Hopium latest:


    Simon Rosenberg
    @SimonWDC
    ·
    45m
    Trump losing campaign vibes:
    - Travel to NM and VA. WTF????
    - Escalation of red wave polls - only needed if election not going his way
    - Darker shades of burnt orange
    - lashing out, violent speech
    - Defending NC, map shrinking
    - Teenie weenie crowds 👇

    https://x.com/SimonWDC/status/1852488442048864415

    In other words, Simon Rosenberg is clueless.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What time do we get the Tory result tomorrow/today?

    I think it's 11am, but I'm not sure.
    The BBC website is your friend:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cje0vp790eqo
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,703
    F1: no bet, but a few things ntoed:
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2024/11/brazil-pre-qualifying-2024.html

    Bearman replacing Magnussen is a shame for the Dane but the young Briton's certainly had a surprisingly active role this year.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,800
    edited November 2
    Wyoming has only two escalators

    Number of escalators by state pic.twitter.com/ESbP6h7UkV

    — New town every hour (@TownsUsa) September 12, 2024
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,800
    Chris said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What time do we get the Tory result tomorrow/today?

    I think it's 11am, but I'm not sure.
    The BBC website is your friend:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cje0vp790eqo
    Oh good, I've always wanted one. Does it involve Christmas cards and phone calls and going to pubs? Oh such fun there will be!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,897
    @mviser

    Senior Harris campaign officials say campaign’s internal data show them winning by double digits among battleground state voters who made up their mind in the last week. Focus groups, officials say, show damage to Trump from Madison Square Garden rally and Puerto Rico comments.

    Harris campaign clearly views Madison Square Garden rally as a turning point among late-breaking undecided voters, in ways that's giving them confidence in the final days. “It really broke through," senior campaign official says. "It’s helped gel their feeling about this race.”

    @MollyJongFast

    If @TonyHinchcliffe ends up costing Donald Trump the election it will be the funniest thing he’s ever done

    https://x.com/MollyJongFast/status/1852448078474662062
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,697

    Hopium latest:


    Simon Rosenberg
    @SimonWDC
    ·
    45m
    Trump losing campaign vibes:
    - Travel to NM and VA. WTF????
    - Escalation of red wave polls - only needed if election not going his way
    - Darker shades of burnt orange
    - lashing out, violent speech
    - Defending NC, map shrinking
    - Teenie weenie crowds 👇

    https://x.com/SimonWDC/status/1852488442048864415

    If memory serves, weren’t some saying at this stage in 2016 that the trump campaign was erratic and desperate for making last min stops to the likes of Wisconsin? On the assumption that he takes NC and Georgia, a sweep of Az, Georgia and New Mexico gets him there. Or lose New Mexico and flip Virgina the same outcome. If nothing else it would be an irony if the rust belt abandoned him and he still got over the line. Something to bear in mind when the early results come in from Pa, Mi and Wi.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,537
    edited November 2

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c79z87wzv2no

    If only this could have been forseen….

    The budget gets worse and worse. Bashing NI was stupid when Rishi tried to do it, its even worse this time not so much for the rate rise (which is bad enough), but the threshold reduction.

    Its takes a special kind of government to government £100bn's and get less growth in the short term. Normally the criticism is you will pay for that down the line when the bill finally comes in (and each government has kicked it further down the line).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,170
    moonshine said:

    Hopium latest:


    Simon Rosenberg
    @SimonWDC
    ·
    45m
    Trump losing campaign vibes:
    - Travel to NM and VA. WTF????
    - Escalation of red wave polls - only needed if election not going his way
    - Darker shades of burnt orange
    - lashing out, violent speech
    - Defending NC, map shrinking
    - Teenie weenie crowds 👇

    https://x.com/SimonWDC/status/1852488442048864415

    If memory serves, weren’t some saying at this stage in 2016 that the trump campaign was erratic and desperate for making last min stops to the likes of Wisconsin? On the assumption that he takes NC and Georgia, a sweep of Az, Georgia and New Mexico gets him there. Or lose New Mexico and flip Virgina the same outcome. If nothing else it would be an irony if the rust belt abandoned him and he still got over the line. Something to bear in mind when the early results come in from Pa, Mi and Wi.
    He takes Georgia twice? That’s impressive vote rigging even by his standards.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,697
    ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    Hopium latest:


    Simon Rosenberg
    @SimonWDC
    ·
    45m
    Trump losing campaign vibes:
    - Travel to NM and VA. WTF????
    - Escalation of red wave polls - only needed if election not going his way
    - Darker shades of burnt orange
    - lashing out, violent speech
    - Defending NC, map shrinking
    - Teenie weenie crowds 👇

    https://x.com/SimonWDC/status/1852488442048864415

    If memory serves, weren’t some saying at this stage in 2016 that the trump campaign was erratic and desperate for making last min stops to the likes of Wisconsin? On the assumption that he takes NC and Georgia, a sweep of Az, Georgia and New Mexico gets him there. Or lose New Mexico and flip Virgina the same outcome. If nothing else it would be an irony if the rust belt abandoned him and he still got over the line. Something to bear in mind when the early results come in from Pa, Mi and Wi.
    He takes Georgia twice? That’s impressive vote rigging even by his standards.
    Early morning typo alert! Az, Nevada and NM obvs :-)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    edited November 2
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    You have got to be fucking kidding me.

    Jeez.

    A once great national newspaper reduced to this shite.

    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    31m
    TELEGRAPH: Musk: PM is wrong on farm tax raid #TomorrowsPapersToday

    Elon is absolutely right, Starmer and Reeves have betrayed our farmers, their families and our food security and a 100 Labour MPs in rural seats will be out of a job after the next GE as a result
    I note your anger. I also note the anger of our farming and fishing communities who can detail - with reams of evidence - how YOUR party had ALREADY betrayed them.

    So what is the point in you?
    They got trade deals with Australia etc for exports, they also got a leaving of the CFP which fishing communities wanted.

    This awful government has just taken most farm owners farms and most of their assets built up over generations and destroyed the agricultural industry in this country. There is no comparison
    I don't think putting IHT on larger farms (100% Agricultural relief only dates back to the Major government) is quite the same as forced collectivisation of the kulaks. Any land sold as a result of IHT will go to other farmers, or be used for building.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,170
    moonshine said:

    ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    Hopium latest:


    Simon Rosenberg
    @SimonWDC
    ·
    45m
    Trump losing campaign vibes:
    - Travel to NM and VA. WTF????
    - Escalation of red wave polls - only needed if election not going his way
    - Darker shades of burnt orange
    - lashing out, violent speech
    - Defending NC, map shrinking
    - Teenie weenie crowds 👇

    https://x.com/SimonWDC/status/1852488442048864415

    If memory serves, weren’t some saying at this stage in 2016 that the trump campaign was erratic and desperate for making last min stops to the likes of Wisconsin? On the assumption that he takes NC and Georgia, a sweep of Az, Georgia and New Mexico gets him there. Or lose New Mexico and flip Virgina the same outcome. If nothing else it would be an irony if the rust belt abandoned him and he still got over the line. Something to bear in mind when the early results come in from Pa, Mi and Wi.
    He takes Georgia twice? That’s impressive vote rigging even by his standards.
    Early morning typo alert! Az, Nevada and NM obvs :-)
    I was assuming it was a typo, but with Trump you never know.

    Seems unlikely he will take New Mexico or Virginia - indeed, he’s probably got a better chance in New Hampshire. But it’s no higher than the chance of Harris taking Texas.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,537
    edited November 2
    MikeL said:

    Once again, don't assume the Supreme Court will come to Trump's rescue.

    "Supreme court rejects Republican argument on Pennsylvania ballot counting: AP

    The supreme court on Friday rejected an emergency appeal from Republicans that could have led to thousands of provisional ballots not being counted in Pennsylvania, the Associated Press reports.

    The justices left in place a state supreme court ruling that elections officials must count provisional ballots cast by voters whose mail-in ballots were rejected."

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/nov/01/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-states-campaign-us-politics-latest-updates

    I think people misunderstand who the "conservative" judges on the Supreme Court are. Several are idealogical about the constitution laid down by the forefathers above all else, rather than simply being a Trump / GOP stooge. That means your "progressive" causes are always going to run into difficulties, but not a slam dunk every whinge from the right gets waved through.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,697
    ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    Hopium latest:


    Simon Rosenberg
    @SimonWDC
    ·
    45m
    Trump losing campaign vibes:
    - Travel to NM and VA. WTF????
    - Escalation of red wave polls - only needed if election not going his way
    - Darker shades of burnt orange
    - lashing out, violent speech
    - Defending NC, map shrinking
    - Teenie weenie crowds 👇

    https://x.com/SimonWDC/status/1852488442048864415

    If memory serves, weren’t some saying at this stage in 2016 that the trump campaign was erratic and desperate for making last min stops to the likes of Wisconsin? On the assumption that he takes NC and Georgia, a sweep of Az, Georgia and New Mexico gets him there. Or lose New Mexico and flip Virgina the same outcome. If nothing else it would be an irony if the rust belt abandoned him and he still got over the line. Something to bear in mind when the early results come in from Pa, Mi and Wi.
    He takes Georgia twice? That’s impressive vote rigging even by his standards.
    Early morning typo alert! Az, Nevada and NM obvs :-)
    I was assuming it was a typo, but with Trump you never know.

    Seems unlikely he will take New Mexico or Virginia - indeed, he’s probably got a better chance in New Hampshire. But it’s no higher than the chance of Harris taking Texas.
    Who the hell knows. They are two very strange candidacies without much modern precedent. One a “defeated incumbent”, the other an incumbent with a previously low profile chosen with no primaries.
  • Right, so having been told on here quite convincingly how reprehensible Trump is for wanting Liz Cheney put in front of a firing squad. I saw a meme on twitter that suggested this was, in actual fact fake news and he said no such thing.
    So I checked and guess what, Trump never said anything about a firing squad. The firing squad comments are what somebody else said his comments were, and thus they are now his comments.
    Derangement syndrome really is up there.
    Trump is bonkers, he says so many bonkers things, surely there are enough of the things he does say without inventing stuff.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,537
    edited November 2
    Liz Truss - The economic blob that brought me down is shielding a failing Chancellor
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/01/the-economic-blob-that-brought-me-down-is-shielding-reeves/

    Do we think Truss was always this bonkers, or her experience as PM has driven this mad?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,570

    Right, so having been told on here quite convincingly how reprehensible Trump is for wanting Liz Cheney put in front of a firing squad. I saw a meme on twitter that suggested this was, in actual fact fake news and he said no such thing.
    So I checked and guess what, Trump never said anything about a firing squad. The firing squad comments are what somebody else said his comments were, and thus they are now his comments.
    Derangement syndrome really is up there.
    Trump is bonkers, he says so many bonkers things, surely there are enough of the things he does say without inventing stuff.

    He *did* talk about pointing 9 (gun) barrels at her and you can try to spin that away, but I don't see another reasonable interpretation.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,170
    edited November 2
    mwadams said:

    Right, so having been told on here quite convincingly how reprehensible Trump is for wanting Liz Cheney put in front of a firing squad. I saw a meme on twitter that suggested this was, in actual fact fake news and he said no such thing.
    So I checked and guess what, Trump never said anything about a firing squad. The firing squad comments are what somebody else said his comments were, and thus they are now his comments.
    Derangement syndrome really is up there.
    Trump is bonkers, he says so many bonkers things, surely there are enough of the things he does say without inventing stuff.

    He *did* talk about pointing 9 (gun) barrels at her and you can try to spin that away, but I don't see another reasonable interpretation.
    He did say he would give her a rifle as well, which isn’t usual for somebody facing a firing squad.

    But he talked about pointing ‘nine rifles at her face’ which isn’t exactly a normal thing to say and suggests he has some distinctly disturbing thoughts about her.

    Mind you, the more amusing thing was he called her ‘revolting’ and ‘dumb.’ No irony there…
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,012
    Rachel Reeves was given a rapturous reception by Labour MPs after her first budget on Wednesday. But already some of her cabinet colleagues are privately concerned at what they see as a “massive gamble”. “The reality remains that if we don’t get growth, we go bust,” our political team was told.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-autumn-budget-backlash-s989hn288
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