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The public ‘prefer’ Jenrick to the even more unpopular Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
The public ‘prefer’ Jenrick to the even more unpopular Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
While many Britons don't know how they feel about Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick currently, those with an opinion are largely unfavourableRobert JenrickFavourable: 13% (+5 vs 30-31 July)Unfavourable: 40% (+13)Don't know: 47% (-18)Kemi BadenochFavourable: 12% (+1)… pic.twitter.com/DLyg3hSl3m
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NEW: Elon Musk, the richest man in the world who has spent over $100 million supporting Trump, appears to have worked in the US without authorization. Experts say if he did and lied about it as part of the immigration process, he could be denaturalized.
https://x.com/WIRED/status/1852087062993998107
https://x.com/mluckovichajc/status/1852331994648084872
Having done a stint as British PM could become a way for ambitious American politicians to build a path to the White House, as an alternative to governing a state, or it could be a career progression for an experienced Australian politician
Bernie Sanders could be the next Labour leader, after Starner.
But Trump winning and then deporting Musk, even after he spent so much money on the Orange One's election campaign... It would be funny.
(Albeit the sort of thing Jeffrey Archer would scrub from a political saga as too implausible.)
Time will tell
Con 1431
Green 477
Lab 115
Excellent lunch with the FT, you really get a sense of what Cleverly is like person-to-person. Plus Lucy gets an exclusive from him that he WON'T be staying in the Shadow Cabinet.
https://bsky.app/profile/stephenkb.bsky.social/post/3l7vijcgibl26
As of now, I think it likely that the Republicans will take control of the Senate, and that the odds slightly favor the Democrats taking control of the House. (For the record, I'm in favor of both.)
If both those things happen, whoever wins the presidency will be severely limited in how many of their promises they can keep.
I love my dudes but if there is a nationwide contest between men and women that goes to the group that manages to show up at the right place and fill out their forms on time and do all those things, the men would need to start with an advantage of several million to be competitive..
https://x.com/ryangrim/status/1851781543112642839
Leading white supremacist and antisemite says he’s backing the Jewish candidate over Trump because of former president’s ‘full-throated subservience to Israel and the Jewish lobby’"
(Me? I lean toward the first, but won't deny that I did smile when I heard about the endorsement.)
The economic blob that brought me down is shielding a failing Chancellor
Getting rid of Rachel Reeves won’t unleash economic growth alone – the Quangocracy needs to be dismantled
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/01/the-economic-blob-that-brought-me-down-is-shielding-reeves/ (£££)
What this is - however - is a classic example of how some people don't believe the rules apply to them.
Lots of companies pile pressure, targets and stress onto workers and then telegraph that they couldn't care less about them. Simple things, like a thank you or a bit of appreciation and recognition, that cost nothing, would go a long way - but so many just don't want to engage with their staff as people.
It does depend what you mean by a "tax avoidance wheeze". Reasonable incentives to encourage either saving or spending (whatever floats the Government boat) are fine. Unfair piss takes on the other hand not so much.
I am less keen on unearned income being free of tax and earned income being caned by the treasury. We paid tax at 40% to rent out my mother in law's home to pay for her care costs so I don't see why Jeremy Clarkson doesn't pay an inheritance tax for his faux farm when his kin inherit the estate.
NEW
Kamala Harris’ final ad in Pennsylvania features her sitting next to Josh Shapiro while both of them speak straight to camera.
I don’t remember any other time a major candidate has filmed an ad just like this.
I remember some ads where rally footage features the state’s governor or senator, but not like this.
Speaks to how popular Shapiro is.
https://x.com/yashar/status/1852356742640030010
1% of population is 670K of people, or restrict it to age groups 18 and above and 1% is around 500k from 51million. Total drivers licences in issue are 41.5 million, so 1% of that 410k.
Drivers licences revoked for medical reasons in the decade 2014 to 2024 are 650k, so 65k per annum. And the total numbers of medically revoked licences will be several times that - depending how many get them back.
I think the bigger question is perhaps your focus on driving at the centre.
We have talked about people who cannot drive for medical reasons. But those who choose not to drive are equally lawful users of the public highway and have equal rights / privileges to those who choose to use a motor vehicle.
We have 41.5 million driving licences in issue, and that means we have 26 million people who do not have a driving licence who need equal consideration.
That 26 million comprise non-drivers for medical reasons, non-drivers by choice, non-drivers by circumstance eg can't afford to, almost everyone under 17, elderly for whatever reason, and any other categories.
That is just under 40% who need to be considered. Freedom of choice an equal opportunity matters - why should we be nudging them to spend £££ on a motor vehicle that they may not be able to, or want to, afford?
The fairly stark stats in the budgets are that there was about £7 billion of extra expenditure for vehicle drivers, and £100m for public highways users walking, wheeling or cycling. That is without looking at existing budgets.
My offence was, apparently, being too positive in reviews for reports. Apparently, Real Management is making sure that for every nice thing you say, you say something shit about them.
Big congratters to @Casino_Royale on the new job. Fab news for a Friday afternoon – time to hug the wife and open a bottle of something cold and bubbly.
We know he thinks he is above the law personally and in the way he runs his business.
We already have:
- His attitude to regulation by the European Commission.
- His unlawful sacking of workers, which Trump stated he admired,
- His working illegally in the USA when he had no correct visa.
- His attitude to UK law in the comments he makes about our politics here.
He comes across as just another numbskull redneck Republican.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg7nk5dx0wo
(1995)...Emma recalls that the police told Samantha: “We’ve added it to a pile of other female names that we’ve got that have made the same complaint against Mohamed Al Fayed.”
“So we know that they had other reports,” she says. Samantha also told the News of the World that the police said she was “not the first” and they had “files inches high” about Al Fayed...
Harris does not look entirely comfortable in that clip.
Interesting balancing act for Shapiro - he wants to run in 2028 for the D nomination but obviously has to be seen as helping out the campaign.
Don't think it will move the dial but it will help out Shapiro for the next run.
Apart from getting a pension or two.
Republicans against Trump
@RpsAgainstTrump
Absolutely disgusting. MAGA parade in Mount Pleasant, PA depicted Vice President Harris in chains behind a golf cart bearing American flags and Donald Trump campaign signs
This should be condemned by all.
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1852381369936040131
Don't want to sound too much like an Unherd columnist, but my hunch it's that we don't get organisational scale right now. Once an organisation gets beyond a certain size, you have to manage people as cells on a spreadsheet and their humanity fades into an emoji. Communications tech means that people can do management stuff for a thousand staff, but I'm less convinced that they can manage a thousand people.
Kamala Harris enjoys a wide advantage on abortion over Donald Trump among swing state voters.
Majorities of voters in every state (52%-60%) trust Harris more than Trump on abortion.
Only 28%-31% of voters trust Trump more than Harris on this issue.
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1852393984833769717
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4965880-fox-and-friends-rips-drudge-for-totally-irresponsible-trump-cheney-headline/
It's come to something when it's Drudge calling out Trump's bullshit.
All Soul's Day tomorrow.
It's a branch of applied sociology of leadership. Not as a assumption or constraint, but an observation of how human being work effectively in groups or teams.
No doubt the importation of this colonial habit will trigger the odd PBer.
Washington Journal
@cspanwj
WATCH: "There are a couple of bellwether counties worth watching for clues on election night in the presidential race."
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@CookPolitical's David Wasserman (@Redistrict) on what he's watching as election results start coming in Tuesday night.
https://x.com/cspanwj/status/1852350597724336608
Update: Tucker Carlson Describes Being ‘Mauled By A Demon!’ Mid-Sleep: ‘Left Claw Marks On My Sides’
https://www.infowars.com/posts/tucker-carlson-describes-being-mauled-by-a-demon-mid-sleep-left-claw-marks-on-my-sides
@JessicaTaylor
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4h
Our final @CookPolitical Senate projections are a GOP gain of between 2 and 5 seats, giving GOP somewhere between a 51 and a 54 seat majority.
https://x.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1852332692152410520
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/01/tucker-carlson-demon-attack
Carlson, who said he still bears the scars, said his assailant was a “demon”. He added: “Or by something unseen that left claw marks on my sides.”
He said at the time of the attack, he was asleep in bed. I was “totally confused, I woke up, and I couldn’t breathe, and I thought I was going to suffocate”, he said.
It's a real mystery that one. Oh wait I missed this detail:
"I got attacked while I was asleep with my wife and four dogs and mauled, physically mauled.”
£100m is massive for the amount of taxes paid and the amount brought to the economy.
* Though I'd like to see a citation on that claim. What expenditure and where? Not increasing a tax beyond its current level is not "expenditure".
America on the edge of falling into an abyss.
Brace.
Anything above that on the GOP side, and it’s going to be very tough.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/01/politics/donald-trump-liz-cheney-war-hawk-battle/index.html
I'm surprised he sleeps with his dogs though. A good Welshman would never do that. Frightens the sheep.
Poll being published later tonight but "exclusive" per Times Radio:
Harris ahead in all three of PA, MI and WI (enough to win).
Harris also ahead in one other battleground state (ie one of NC, GA, AZ, NV).
"Let's put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, okay? Let's see how she feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on her face."