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The public ‘prefer’ Jenrick to the even more unpopular Badenoch – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    HYUFD said:

    'Charles finally cuts off Andrew's cash: King severs brother's '£1million-a-year' allowance - plus read more Harry and Meghan revelations in landmark new book serialised exclusively by the Mail'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14030397/Charles-Andrews-cash-King-Harry-Meghan-revelations-book-Mail.html

    I hope that arsehole will be begging for bread on the Embankment.
  • Eabhal said:

    I do hope public sector workers have now stfu from justifying the enormous ENIC increase

    The entire twenty-five billion employment tax is coming from the private sector

    That's £25b of redundancies, and of cancelled payrises and future hires

    And businesses folding

    It looks like an anti-growth economic plan to me

    I think the private:public sector thing is a red herring. I appreciate that's kinda your thing, but the real issue that this is a tax on "working people" whether they are sorting the bins out for the council or making soy lattes for a private sector business.

    The OBR have set out their expectations about pass-through to employment, wages, hours worked and so on - most of it to wages. It's chunky.There are interesting interactions at the bottom - the minimum wage cannot be squeezed so that must impact on employment and hours instead.

    And the change in the secondary threshold means the impact is much, much higher for part-time workers earning in and around £10,000 - that's single parents etc.

    The change in the employment allowance is great for very small businesses.

    But my challenge to you and others: if employer NICs is so pernicious, why do we have it all? And why didn't the Tories abolish it?
    They've decided not to bother charging the increased jobs tax on the public sector

    I've been railing against employer NICs as a dishonest tax since I first understood them

    What an employer pays to pay an employee should be the wage

    The whole tax should be honestly shown on the payslip, ie the difference between what an employer pays and the employee receives

    To pretend that some of it is paid by the employer is to treat as us fuckwits

    Why not abolish income tax, and turn it all into employer NICs?

    You could raise exactly the same revenue, from exactly the same jobs, but just say the companies are paying it
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,423

    TimS said:

    I do hope public sector workers have now stfu from justifying the enormous ENIC increase

    The entire twenty-five billion employment tax is coming from the private sector

    That's £25b of redundancies, and of cancelled payrises and future hires

    And businesses folding

    It looks like an anti-growth economic plan to me

    Let’s not forget international context here. We still have one of the lowest rates of employers NI in the rich world. Netherlands 23%, Germany 20%, Poland 22%, everyone’s favourite Meloni’s Italy 30%, Spain 30%, France up to 50%. Even Singapore 17%. Puts our 15% in perspective. It’s pretty much bang on the global average.

    What is the employee rate in these countries?
    Making any sort of comparison is difficult due to the massive complexity of taxation country-by-country. The only way you can do it is by %age of GDP, and even then things like employer NICs won't show up as a tax on personal taxation even though so much is passed onto wages.

    https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/tax-on-personal-income.html
    https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/social-security-contributions.html

    and so on
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    TimS said:

    I do hope public sector workers have now stfu from justifying the enormous ENIC increase

    The entire twenty-five billion employment tax is coming from the private sector

    That's £25b of redundancies, and of cancelled payrises and future hires

    And businesses folding

    It looks like an anti-growth economic plan to me

    Let’s not forget international context here. We still have one of the lowest rates of employers NI in the rich world. Netherlands 23%, Germany 20%, Poland 22%, everyone’s favourite Meloni’s Italy 30%, Spain 30%, France up to 50%. Even Singapore 17%. Puts our 15% in perspective. It’s pretty much bang on the global average.

    What is the employee rate in these countries?
    Netherlands 28%
    Germany 20%
    Poland 14%
    Italy 10%
    Spain 6%
    France 23%
    Singapore 20%

  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,704

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Uniform swing, so you know the song... But it does highlight the right's problem.

    There is a Lib-Lab split, but (at least for now) it's a helpful efficient split; the two parties don't trip over each other in many places.

    The RefCon split just hurts each party. And I don't see how they get even as far as non-aggression without a slice of centrish-right votes peeling off the Conservatives.
    There are few centre right swing voters left to peel off the Tories, they are down to their core vote. Indeed arguably if Badenoch or Jenrick doesn't work out at the next GE they might even be better with Rees Mogg, he really would unite the Right and collapse the Reform vote to the Tories and with a Labour vote already under 30% would have a shot at PM even with FPTP. Rees Mogg would regain his Somerset seat on the BMG poll today.

    Remember too many centrists mocked Jezza but they weren't laughing on election night 2017 when he united the left behind Labour and got 40% of the vote, a hung parliament and 262 Labour MPs.

    Even in 2019 when he lost heavily Labour got a higher voteshare under Corbyn than it had under Brown or Ed Miliband
    Rees Mogg is a dinosaur and not an mp anyway
    If Sunak and Dowden bow out we could see Mogg AND Truss.back in the saddle.
    No, Truss is gone had her day. Mogg however is certainly a possible future Tory leader and on tonight's BMG poll would win his seat back
    I was joking. They say the returnees are Mogg, Mordaunt and Shapps.
    I still think Mordaunt is a good shout against Keir. She has, and I know this will sound pejorative, a bit of 'normal' about her. Somewhat gives me an Alan Johnson feeling when I hear her interviewed. And Keir has that somewhat odd Professor Yaffle tone.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,801
    edited November 1
    kyf_100 said:

    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Box wine is dangerous

    Dangerously good value, you mean?
    As I understand it, the older crowd like it because when they put their bins out the neighbours don't see a ton of empty wine bottles in the recycling.
    They just need to invent box champagne and I’ll be sorted.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    'BORIS JOHNSON: Rachel Theeves has taken aim at the UK economy and - with sheer cold-eyed malevolence - socked it squarely on the mazzard'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14030337/BORIS-JOHNSON-Rachel-Theeves-taken-aim-UK-economy-sheer-cold-eyed-malevolence-socked-squarely-mazzard.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Charles finally cuts off Andrew's cash: King severs brother's '£1million-a-year' allowance - plus read more Harry and Meghan revelations in landmark new book serialised exclusively by the Mail'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14030397/Charles-Andrews-cash-King-Harry-Meghan-revelations-book-Mail.html

    I hope that arsehole will be begging for bread on the Embankment.
    He still has several million stashed away so should be fine
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,487
    Eabhal said:

    Box wine is dangerous

    I avoid it. Far too easy to lose count.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    edited November 1
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    I do hope public sector workers have now stfu from justifying the enormous ENIC increase

    The entire twenty-five billion employment tax is coming from the private sector

    That's £25b of redundancies, and of cancelled payrises and future hires

    And businesses folding

    It looks like an anti-growth economic plan to me

    Let’s not forget international context here. We still have one of the lowest rates of employers NI in the rich world. Netherlands 23%, Germany 20%, Poland 22%, everyone’s favourite Meloni’s Italy 30%, Spain 30%, France up to 50%. Even Singapore 17%. Puts our 15% in perspective. It’s pretty much bang on the global average.

    What is the employee rate in these countries?
    Netherlands 28%
    Germany 20%
    Poland 14%
    Italy 10%
    Spain 6%
    France 23%
    Singapore 20%

    Incidentally the countries with the highest top rates of income tax are an interesting group. The following all have top rates over 50%:

    Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Israel, Japan, Slovenia. Finland “wins” with 57%. That’s even higher than my own effective tax rate.

    What unites those countries? They’re all very neat and tidy. Except some bits of Belgium.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,423

    Eabhal said:

    I do hope public sector workers have now stfu from justifying the enormous ENIC increase

    The entire twenty-five billion employment tax is coming from the private sector

    That's £25b of redundancies, and of cancelled payrises and future hires

    And businesses folding

    It looks like an anti-growth economic plan to me

    I think the private:public sector thing is a red herring. I appreciate that's kinda your thing, but the real issue that this is a tax on "working people" whether they are sorting the bins out for the council or making soy lattes for a private sector business.

    The OBR have set out their expectations about pass-through to employment, wages, hours worked and so on - most of it to wages. It's chunky.There are interesting interactions at the bottom - the minimum wage cannot be squeezed so that must impact on employment and hours instead.

    And the change in the secondary threshold means the impact is much, much higher for part-time workers earning in and around £10,000 - that's single parents etc.

    The change in the employment allowance is great for very small businesses.

    But my challenge to you and others: if employer NICs is so pernicious, why do we have it all? And why didn't the Tories abolish it?
    They've decided not to bother charging the increased jobs tax on the public sector

    I've been railing against employer NICs as a dishonest tax since I first understood them

    What an employer pays to pay an employee should be the wage

    The whole tax should be honestly shown on the payslip, ie the difference between what an employer pays and the employee receives

    To pretend that some of it is paid by the employer is to treat as us fuckwits

    Why not abolish income tax, and turn it all into employer NICs?

    You could raise exactly the same revenue, from exactly the same jobs, but just say the companies are paying it
    I can't argue with most of that. In terms of the public sector, it would have all netted off eventually for the same effect; it's part of the labour market too so if not a mitigation of NICs, it would have ended up as more pay rises.

    The one thing that is curious about NICs in general is how it's either flat (employer) or actually regressive (employee), and favours self-employment too. A merger of income tax and NICs would be quite complex as a result.
  • TimS said:

    TimS said:

    I do hope public sector workers have now stfu from justifying the enormous ENIC increase

    The entire twenty-five billion employment tax is coming from the private sector

    That's £25b of redundancies, and of cancelled payrises and future hires

    And businesses folding

    It looks like an anti-growth economic plan to me

    Let’s not forget international context here. We still have one of the lowest rates of employers NI in the rich world. Netherlands 23%, Germany 20%, Poland 22%, everyone’s favourite Meloni’s Italy 30%, Spain 30%, France up to 50%. Even Singapore 17%. Puts our 15% in perspective. It’s pretty much bang on the global average.

    What is the employee rate in these countries?
    Netherlands 28%
    Germany 20%
    Poland 14%
    Italy 10%
    Spain 6%
    France 23%
    Singapore 20%

    Apart from Spain everywhere else the employees pay more and in some cases a lot more
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,980
    Sean_F said:

    Let’s be fair - somewhat - to Labour (not something you’ll often hear me say).

    The increases in Defence and Justice budgets are good things. Long overdue. @TSE was right that successive Conservative PM’s might be branded “guilty men” if we end up in a shooting war.

    Scrapping the WFA is correct. And, the triple lock must go.

    The last government was awful, and handed a ton of problems to Labour.

    Labour has 412 MP’s. They can take any decision they wish. Let’s pray they make the right ones.

    A noble sentiment but the Budget was fiscally and economically reckless, the increases in Defence and Justice are pitiful, and, sadly, they aren't making the right calls on the rest; they haven't touched the triple lock and are splurging on their client groups. And they're actively working against British interests in foreign policy.

    You're right they can do what they like though. Let's just hope the judgement of the electorate rapidly chastens them.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,704
    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    Completely lacking in self-awareness, too.
    Was the count of lack too, or was it three? It was all so difficult. The blob, you see. Very few fingers to rely on for the counting of the lack.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,423
    carnforth said:

    Eabhal said:

    Box wine is dangerous

    I avoid it. Far too easy to lose count.
    hic
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,980


    James Heale
    @JAHeale
    ·
    11m
    What a feat by Rishi Sunak, turning around a Labour lead of 20 points in just two short years

    Lol
    If only Rishi had hung on until January. We'd have seen an unprecedented fifth term.
    Tbh, I wish he had.

    We didn't have to have this shower for another 6 months.
    But we'd have had another six months of the last shower.
    Exactly. I'd have loved that.
  • kyf_100 said:

    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Box wine is dangerous

    Dangerously good value, you mean?
    As I understand it, the older crowd like it because when they put their bins out the neighbours don't see a ton of empty wine bottles in the recycling.
    I'd be more concerned as to why a neighbour is going through our bins.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    I do hope public sector workers have now stfu from justifying the enormous ENIC increase

    The entire twenty-five billion employment tax is coming from the private sector

    That's £25b of redundancies, and of cancelled payrises and future hires

    And businesses folding

    It looks like an anti-growth economic plan to me

    Let’s not forget international context here. We still have one of the lowest rates of employers NI in the rich world. Netherlands 23%, Germany 20%, Poland 22%, everyone’s favourite Meloni’s Italy 30%, Spain 30%, France up to 50%. Even Singapore 17%. Puts our 15% in perspective. It’s pretty much bang on the global average.

    What is the employee rate in these countries?
    Netherlands 28%
    Germany 20%
    Poland 14%
    Italy 10%
    Spain 6%
    France 23%
    Singapore 20%

    Incidentally the countries with the highest top rates of income tax are an interesting group. The following all have top rates over 50%:

    Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Israel, Japan, Slovenia. Finland “wins” with 57%. That’s even higher than my own effective tax rate.

    What unites those countries? They’re all very neat and tidy. Except some bits of Belgium.
    Any tax rate is difficult to interpret in isolation. What are the thresholds for example? And how do other taxes pan out?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,704
    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Didn't she previously say she had no idea and was delayed to the election count due to getting some junk food for her kids? Possibly that was a different Liz Truss. The bold one. The one with The Plan For Growth. Not the very, very rubbish one who was in parliament cosplaying a prime minister for a few weeks.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134
    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    I see the Daily Mail has introduced paywalls for some articles. I'm not paying to read it.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Uniform swing, so you know the song... But it does highlight the right's problem.

    There is a Lib-Lab split, but (at least for now) it's a helpful efficient split; the two parties don't trip over each other in many places.

    The RefCon split just hurts each party. And I don't see how they get even as far as non-aggression without a slice of centrish-right votes peeling off the Conservatives.
    There are few centre right swing voters left to peel off the Tories, they are down to their core vote. Indeed arguably if Badenoch or Jenrick doesn't work out at the next GE they might even be better with Rees Mogg, he really would unite the Right and collapse the Reform vote to the Tories and with a Labour vote already under 30% would have a shot at PM even with FPTP. Rees Mogg would regain his Somerset seat on the BMG poll today.

    Remember too many centrists mocked Jezza but they weren't laughing on election night 2017 when he united the left behind Labour and got 40% of the vote, a hung parliament and 262 Labour MPs.

    Even in 2019 when he lost heavily Labour got a higher voteshare under Corbyn than it had under Brown or Ed Miliband
    Rees Mogg is a dinosaur and not an mp anyway
    If Sunak and Dowden bow out we could see Mogg AND Truss.back in the saddle.
    No, Truss is gone had her day. Mogg however is certainly a possible future Tory leader and on tonight's BMG poll would win his seat back
    I was joking. They say the returnees are Mogg, Mordaunt and Shapps.
    I still think Mordaunt is a good shout against Keir. She has, and I know this will sound pejorative, a bit of 'normal' about her. Somewhat gives me an Alan Johnson feeling when I hear her interviewed. And Keir has that somewhat odd Professor Yaffle tone.
    Bagpuss = Rayner
    Gabriel the Frog = Ed Miliband
    Madeline = Lucy Powell
    The mice = the PLP

    Emily = Lord Alli

    Any better matches?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Sean_F said:

    Let’s be fair - somewhat - to Labour (not something you’ll often hear me say).

    The increases in Defence and Justice budgets are good things. Long overdue. @TSE was right that successive Conservative PM’s might be branded “guilty men” if we end up in a shooting war.

    Scrapping the WFA is correct. And, the triple lock must go.

    The last government was awful, and handed a ton of problems to Labour.

    Labour has 412 MP’s. They can take any decision they wish. Let’s pray they make the right ones.

    A noble sentiment but the Budget was fiscally and economically reckless, the increases in Defence and Justice are pitiful, and, sadly, they aren't making the right calls on the rest; they haven't touched the triple lock and are splurging on their client groups. And they're actively working against British interests in foreign policy.

    You're right they can do what they like though. Let's just hope the judgement of the electorate rapidly chastens them.
    In part, it’s directed at Conservatives. We have to own our mistakes, before we can expect the public to vote for us.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    I do hope public sector workers have now stfu from justifying the enormous ENIC increase

    The entire twenty-five billion employment tax is coming from the private sector

    That's £25b of redundancies, and of cancelled payrises and future hires

    And businesses folding

    It looks like an anti-growth economic plan to me

    Let’s not forget international context here. We still have one of the lowest rates of employers NI in the rich world. Netherlands 23%, Germany 20%, Poland 22%, everyone’s favourite Meloni’s Italy 30%, Spain 30%, France up to 50%. Even Singapore 17%. Puts our 15% in perspective. It’s pretty much bang on the global average.

    What is the employee rate in these countries?
    Netherlands 28%
    Germany 20%
    Poland 14%
    Italy 10%
    Spain 6%
    France 23%
    Singapore 20%

    Incidentally the countries with the highest top rates of income tax are an interesting group. The following all have top rates over 50%:

    Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Israel, Japan, Slovenia. Finland “wins” with 57%. That’s even higher than my own effective tax rate.

    What unites those countries? They’re all very neat and tidy. Except some bits of Belgium.
    Any tax rate is difficult to interpret in isolation. What are the thresholds for example? And how do other taxes pan out?
    Those are all also countries with high overall tax burden. Denmark has the highest overall. They tend to have higher rates for the lower and mid paid too - something we’ve moved away from in the UK which is one reason it’s harder to get as much tax yield here as we used to.

    The highest tax countries, with one or two exceptions, also tend to have relatively low rates of corporation tax. They’ve realised it’s a poor way of collecting revenue and a little counter productive.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555

    Sean_F said:

    Let’s be fair - somewhat - to Labour (not something you’ll often hear me say).

    The increases in Defence and Justice budgets are good things. Long overdue. @TSE was right that successive Conservative PM’s might be branded “guilty men” if we end up in a shooting war.

    Scrapping the WFA is correct. And, the triple lock must go.

    The last government was awful, and handed a ton of problems to Labour.

    Labour has 412 MP’s. They can take any decision they wish. Let’s pray they make the right ones.

    A noble sentiment but the Budget was fiscally and economically reckless, the increases in Defence and Justice are pitiful, and, sadly, they aren't making the right calls on the rest; they haven't touched the triple lock and are splurging on their client groups. And they're actively working against British interests in foreign policy.

    You're right they can do what they like though. Let's just hope the judgement of the electorate rapidly chastens them.
    So they’re spending more than the Tories on defence and justice priorities, they’ve tackled the cost of pensions just not in the way you prefer (again aligning with Tory policy) and wrt foreign policy they’ve completed plans set out by Cleverly.

    They must be a bit too right wing for you.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,891
    @bpolitics

    Elon Musk lost a bid to move a lawsuit challenging his daily million-dollar giveaway to voters to federal court, putting the lawsuit filed by a progressive Philadelphia district attorney back in front of a state court judge.

    https://x.com/bpolitics/status/1852454129332896166
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    The ship hasn’t set sail and the rats are already deserting.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm20dv560j2o
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    The remarkable change for Sunak in BMG poll

    Starmer -26
    Sunak - 5 having gone into the election at -42

    By tomorrow morning, we will miss him already.

    He was very good at PMQs this week too.
    Both PMQs and his response to the budget were his best moments maybe due to the release of responsibility
    Nothing in his time in office became him like the leaving it.
    Nothing became him like being utterly irrelevant.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    kyf_100 said:

    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Box wine is dangerous

    Dangerously good value, you mean?
    As I understand it, the older crowd like it because when they put their bins out the neighbours don't see a ton of empty wine bottles in the recycling.
    Slackers.

    Real drinkers put the 4.5ltr magnums out with pride.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    I do hope public sector workers have now stfu from justifying the enormous ENIC increase

    The entire twenty-five billion employment tax is coming from the private sector

    That's £25b of redundancies, and of cancelled payrises and future hires

    And businesses folding

    It looks like an anti-growth economic plan to me

    Let’s not forget international context here. We still have one of the lowest rates of employers NI in the rich world. Netherlands 23%, Germany 20%, Poland 22%, everyone’s favourite Meloni’s Italy 30%, Spain 30%, France up to 50%. Even Singapore 17%. Puts our 15% in perspective. It’s pretty much bang on the global average.

    What is the employee rate in these countries?
    Netherlands 28%
    Germany 20%
    Poland 14%
    Italy 10%
    Spain 6%
    France 23%
    Singapore 20%

    Incidentally the countries with the highest top rates of income tax are an interesting group. The following all have top rates over 50%:

    Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Israel, Japan, Slovenia. Finland “wins” with 57%. That’s even higher than my own effective tax rate.

    What unites those countries? They’re all very neat and tidy. Except some bits of Belgium.
    Any tax rate is difficult to interpret in isolation. What are the thresholds for example? And how do other taxes pan out?
    Those are all also countries with high overall tax burden. Denmark has the highest overall. They tend to have higher rates for the lower and mid paid too - something we’ve moved away from in the UK which is one reason it’s harder to get as much tax yield here as we used to.

    The highest tax countries, with one or two exceptions, also tend to have relatively low rates of corporation tax. They’ve realised it’s a poor way of collecting revenue and a little counter productive.
    I found this interesting chart on how different countries raise their funds:



    The USA raises quite a high percentage via income tax etc, it's taxes on goods and services that they are lighter on.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    I'll raise you Alexander Johnson. He did of course facilitate Truss.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    I'll raise you Alexander Johnson. He did of course facilitate Truss.
    It's a pretty competitive field for worst ever Tory leader, but surely Sunak has the unique accolade of the heaviest defeat for the party since universal suffrage?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,575
    edited November 1
    HYUFD said:

    'BORIS JOHNSON: Rachel Theeves has taken aim at the UK economy and - with sheer cold-eyed malevolence - socked it squarely on the mazzard'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14030337/BORIS-JOHNSON-Rachel-Theeves-taken-aim-UK-economy-sheer-cold-eyed-malevolence-socked-squarely-mazzard.html

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    HYUFD said:

    'Charles finally cuts off Andrew's cash: King severs brother's '£1million-a-year' allowance - plus read more Harry and Meghan revelations in landmark new book serialised exclusively by the Mail'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14030397/Charles-Andrews-cash-King-Harry-Meghan-revelations-book-Mail.html

    Bloody hell HY, you appear to be in danger of overdosing on the Daily Mail. You surely know it's bad for your health?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    HIGNFY awful this evening. Barely a joke about Reeves and Starmer's budget beyond bus fares, still mainly at Tories expense.

    Left leaning comedians still can't bring themselves to criticise an increasingly unpopular leftwing government
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    I'll raise you Alexander Johnson. He did of course facilitate Truss.
    It's a pretty competitive field for worst ever Tory leader, but surely Sunak has the unique accolade of the heaviest defeat for the party since universal suffrage?
    Shortest tenure as pm trumps it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Jonathan said:

    The ship hasn’t set sail and the rats are already deserting.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm20dv560j2o

    First rat to desert a floating ship then, given the resurgent Tories BMG poll lead tonight
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,583
    HYUFD said:

    HIGNFY awful this evening. Barely a joke about Reeves and Starmer's budget beyond bus fares, still mainly at Tories expense.

    Left leaning comedians still can't bring themselves to criticise an increasingly unpopular leftwing government

    Was the same last time Labour were in power. It was only once Iraq came along that BBC comedians felt able to criticise Labour.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,575
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    I do hope public sector workers have now stfu from justifying the enormous ENIC increase

    The entire twenty-five billion employment tax is coming from the private sector

    That's £25b of redundancies, and of cancelled payrises and future hires

    And businesses folding

    It looks like an anti-growth economic plan to me

    Let’s not forget international context here. We still have one of the lowest rates of employers NI in the rich world. Netherlands 23%, Germany 20%, Poland 22%, everyone’s favourite Meloni’s Italy 30%, Spain 30%, France up to 50%. Even Singapore 17%. Puts our 15% in perspective. It’s pretty much bang on the global average.

    What is the employee rate in these countries?
    Netherlands 28%
    Germany 20%
    Poland 14%
    Italy 10%
    Spain 6%
    France 23%
    Singapore 20%

    Incidentally the countries with the highest top rates of income tax are an interesting group. The following all have top rates over 50%:

    Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Israel, Japan, Slovenia. Finland “wins” with 57%. That’s even higher than my own effective tax rate.

    What unites those countries? They’re all very neat and tidy. Except some bits of Belgium.
    Any tax rate is difficult to interpret in isolation. What are the thresholds for example? And how do other taxes pan out?
    Those are all also countries with high overall tax burden. Denmark has the highest overall. They tend to have higher rates for the lower and mid paid too - something we’ve moved away from in the UK which is one reason it’s harder to get as much tax yield here as we used to.

    The highest tax countries, with one or two exceptions, also tend to have relatively low rates of corporation tax. They’ve realised it’s a poor way of collecting revenue and a little counter productive.
    I found this interesting chart on how different countries raise their funds:



    The USA raises quite a high percentage via income tax etc, it's taxes on goods and services that they are lighter on.
    Do you have a link for that chart Foxy?
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 775
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    I'll raise you Alexander Johnson. He did of course facilitate Truss.
    It's a pretty competitive field for worst ever Tory leader, but surely Sunak has the unique accolade of the heaviest defeat for the party since universal suffrage?
    That would mean Churchill would be one of the worst Tory leaders ever too. Good luck arguing that case...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    I'll raise you Alexander Johnson. He did of course facilitate Truss.
    Is that a euphemism?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    I'll raise you Alexander Johnson. He did of course facilitate Truss.
    It's a pretty competitive field for worst ever Tory leader, but surely Sunak has the unique accolade of the heaviest defeat for the party since universal suffrage?
    True, but also a bit unfair. He was just the poor sod left holding the baby after it had done an enormous poo. A dream team hybrid of the best bits of every Conservative leader ever couldn't have saved them in 2022.

    I've not got that much sympathy for him- he chose to shill for Brexit and Boris before it was strictly necessary, and was more than happy to let Boris'n'Dom drive a bus over the Saj in early 2020. But he has suffered enough and taken his punishment.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 775
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    I see the Daily Mail has introduced paywalls for some articles. I'm not paying to read it.
    Use archive.ph
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,787
    Have we worked out whether Kemi or Jenrick has won yet?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,418
    Congrats to @Casino_Royale on his new job.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,801
    viewcode said:

    Have we worked out whether Kemi or Jenrick has won yet?

    The results will be announced tomorrow.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    Sean_F said:

    Let’s be fair - somewhat - to Labour (not something you’ll often hear me say).

    The increases in Defence and Justice budgets are good things. Long overdue. @TSE was right that successive Conservative PM’s might be branded “guilty men” if we end up in a shooting war.

    Scrapping the WFA is correct. And, the triple lock must go.

    The last government was awful, and handed a ton of problems to Labour.

    Labour has 412 MP’s. They can take any decision they wish. Let’s pray they make the right ones.

    A noble sentiment but the Budget was fiscally and economically reckless, the increases in Defence and Justice are pitiful, and, sadly, they aren't making the right calls on the rest; they haven't touched the triple lock and are splurging on their client groups. And they're actively working against British interests in foreign policy.

    You're right they can do what they like though. Let's just hope the judgement of the electorate rapidly chastens them.
    So patients needing healthcare and children needing education are Labour's "client groups"?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    I'll raise you Alexander Johnson. He did of course facilitate Truss.
    It's a pretty competitive field for worst ever Tory leader, but surely Sunak has the unique accolade of the heaviest defeat for the party since universal suffrage?
    He came off the bench with twenty minutes 'til the whistle. He was already six nil down and only let a couple more howlers into the back of the net. The NI cuts and HS2 were unforgivable own goals.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    HIGNFY awful this evening. Barely a joke about Reeves and Starmer's budget beyond bus fares, still mainly at Tories expense.

    Left leaning comedians still can't bring themselves to criticise an increasingly unpopular leftwing government

    Was the same last time Labour were in power. It was only once Iraq came along that BBC comedians felt able to criticise Labour.
    If HYUFD wants more right wing comedians I suppose they could book Trumps Puerto Rican guy to slag off the latest scapegoat.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    I do hope public sector workers have now stfu from justifying the enormous ENIC increase

    The entire twenty-five billion employment tax is coming from the private sector

    That's £25b of redundancies, and of cancelled payrises and future hires

    And businesses folding

    It looks like an anti-growth economic plan to me

    Let’s not forget international context here. We still have one of the lowest rates of employers NI in the rich world. Netherlands 23%, Germany 20%, Poland 22%, everyone’s favourite Meloni’s Italy 30%, Spain 30%, France up to 50%. Even Singapore 17%. Puts our 15% in perspective. It’s pretty much bang on the global average.

    What is the employee rate in these countries?
    Netherlands 28%
    Germany 20%
    Poland 14%
    Italy 10%
    Spain 6%
    France 23%
    Singapore 20%

    Incidentally the countries with the highest top rates of income tax are an interesting group. The following all have top rates over 50%:

    Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Israel, Japan, Slovenia. Finland “wins” with 57%. That’s even higher than my own effective tax rate.

    What unites those countries? They’re all very neat and tidy. Except some bits of Belgium.
    Any tax rate is difficult to interpret in isolation. What are the thresholds for example? And how do other taxes pan out?
    Those are all also countries with high overall tax burden. Denmark has the highest overall. They tend to have higher rates for the lower and mid paid too - something we’ve moved away from in the UK which is one reason it’s harder to get as much tax yield here as we used to.

    The highest tax countries, with one or two exceptions, also tend to have relatively low rates of corporation tax. They’ve realised it’s a poor way of collecting revenue and a little counter productive.
    I found this interesting chart on how different countries raise their funds:



    The USA raises quite a high percentage via income tax etc, it's taxes on goods and services that they are lighter on.
    Do you have a link for that chart Foxy?
    https://taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/how-do-us-taxes-compare-internationally
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 168
    12ft.io is your friend
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 775
    viewcode said:

    Have we worked out whether Kemi or Jenrick has won yet?

    Kemi will win. You should bet on Jenrick.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    I'll raise you Alexander Johnson. He did of course facilitate Truss.
    It's a pretty competitive field for worst ever Tory leader, but surely Sunak has the unique accolade of the heaviest defeat for the party since universal suffrage?
    The music stopped when Sunak was in charge. It should have stopped years earlier. Rishi Sunak was a lot better than his two predecessors and probably about equal with Theresa May.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    I'll raise you Alexander Johnson. He did of course facilitate Truss.
    It's a pretty competitive field for worst ever Tory leader, but surely Sunak has the unique accolade of the heaviest defeat for the party since universal suffrage?
    That would mean Churchill would be one of the worst Tory leaders ever too. Good luck arguing that case...
    Churchill won in 1951
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    If Labour is going to spend more on defence, I'd like to see a proper strategic review which looks at why defence procurement, even by govt standards, is famously bad.

    At why we have enormous white elephant aircraft carriers that don't seem to be of any use to... you know... defending the country as opposed to looking nice in pictures.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited November 1
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    I'll raise you Alexander Johnson. He did of course facilitate Truss.
    It's a pretty competitive field for worst ever Tory leader, but surely Sunak has the unique accolade of the heaviest defeat for the party since universal suffrage?
    That's incorrect.

    It was their worst defeat ever.

    Previous low was 157 in 1906, of whom around 130 were Conservatives and the rest officially Liberal Unionists (definitions of party were a bit vaguer at the time).

    It's the second-worst ever defeat for a party that had been in government during the previous parliament, behind Labour's imposing collapse to a mere 52 MPs in 1931.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Jonathan said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    HIGNFY awful this evening. Barely a joke about Reeves and Starmer's budget beyond bus fares, still mainly at Tories expense.

    Left leaning comedians still can't bring themselves to criticise an increasingly unpopular leftwing government

    Was the same last time Labour were in power. It was only once Iraq came along that BBC comedians felt able to criticise Labour.
    If HYUFD wants more right wing comedians I suppose they could book Trumps Puerto Rican guy to slag off the latest scapegoat.
    He was awful but even he was sharper and funnier than they are tonight. Plenty of rightwing comedians here too
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoff_Norcott#:~:text=He has previously claimed to,about six" right wing comedians.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    I see the Daily Mail has introduced paywalls for some articles. I'm not paying to read it.
    Use archive.ph
    12ft.io also.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    rkrkrk said:

    If Labour is going to spend more on defence, I'd like to see a proper strategic review which looks at why defence procurement, even by govt standards, is famously bad.

    At why we have enormous white elephant aircraft carriers that don't seem to be of any use to... you know... defending the country as opposed to looking nice in pictures.

    To be fair, they are both currently seaworthy and crewed, which is a step up from our submarines.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If Labour is going to spend more on defence, I'd like to see a proper strategic review which looks at why defence procurement, even by govt standards, is famously bad.

    At why we have enormous white elephant aircraft carriers that don't seem to be of any use to... you know... defending the country as opposed to looking nice in pictures.

    To be fair, they are both currently seaworthy and crewed, which is a step up from our submarines.
    {Bernard Wolley mode engaged}

    Isn't it a good thing that our ships are a step up from our submarines?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    HIGNFY awful this evening. Barely a joke about Reeves and Starmer's budget beyond bus fares, still mainly at Tories expense.

    Left leaning comedians still can't bring themselves to criticise an increasingly unpopular leftwing government

    Was the same last time Labour were in power. It was only once Iraq came along that BBC comedians felt able to criticise Labour.
    Yes but they got away with it then as Blair and New Labour had massive poll leads until 2003.

    Now we already have a poll tonight putting the Tories ahead of Labour with Starmer and Reeves both deep in net negative approval
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    I'll raise you Alexander Johnson. He did of course facilitate Truss.
    It's a pretty competitive field for worst ever Tory leader, but surely Sunak has the unique accolade of the heaviest defeat for the party since universal suffrage?
    That would mean Churchill would be one of the worst Tory leaders ever too. Good luck arguing that case...
    Fought three elections, lost two. Spent most of his time obsessing about foreign affairs to the neglect of important domestic policy. Failed to groom his successor properly. Spent most of his last 18 months in power in such a state of mental decay that the Cabinet used to come out of meetings swearing at his confusion.

    He did a few good things too, but yeah, you could make that case.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,891
    @LadPolitics

    We've seen a sustained move towards Kamala Harris in the last 24 hours.

    She's now 11/8 (from 7/4) to win the US Election.

    https://x.com/LadPolitics/status/1852461306118656492
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    It was the unforced error of Truss’ demise that makes her standout as spectacularly abysmal. Sunak played a bad hand poorly, but Truss out of nowhere decided to destroy herself.

    Obviously Boris is utterly malign, but within the narrow confines of his own standards by winning an election he stands ahead of both Sunak and Truss.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    I'll raise you Alexander Johnson. He did of course facilitate Truss.
    It's a pretty competitive field for worst ever Tory leader, but surely Sunak has the unique accolade of the heaviest defeat for the party since universal suffrage?
    The music stopped when Sunak was in charge. It should have stopped years earlier. Rishi Sunak was a lot better than his two predecessors and probably about equal with Theresa May.
    If they'd picked Sunak before Truss detonated a dirty bomb under the economy, he would probably have lost - the legacy of Partygate made that inevitable - but it is highly unlikely he would have lost so badly.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,891
    @YouGov

    Our final U.S. presidential election MRP has just dropped 👇

    Harris 240 (-10 from mid-Oct)
    Trump 218 (-1)
    Tossups 80 (+11)

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1852460856979734974
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    edited November 1
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    I'll raise you Alexander Johnson. He did of course facilitate Truss.
    It's a pretty competitive field for worst ever Tory leader, but surely Sunak has the unique accolade of the heaviest defeat for the party since universal suffrage?
    That would mean Churchill would be one of the worst Tory leaders ever too. Good luck arguing that case...
    Fought three elections, lost two. Spent most of his time obsessing about foreign affairs to the neglect of important domestic policy. Failed to groom his successor properly. Spent most of his last 18 months in power in such a state of mental decay that the Cabinet used to come out of meetings swearing at his confusion.

    He did a few good things too, but yeah, you could make that case.
    Only competent when he was in a coalition with Labour and Liberals too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    I'll raise you Alexander Johnson. He did of course facilitate Truss.
    It's a pretty competitive field for worst ever Tory leader, but surely Sunak has the unique accolade of the heaviest defeat for the party since universal suffrage?
    That would mean Churchill would be one of the worst Tory leaders ever too. Good luck arguing that case...
    Fought three elections, lost two. Spent most of his time obsessing about foreign affairs to the neglect of important domestic policy. Failed to groom his successor properly. Spent most of his last 18 months in power in such a state of mental decay that the Cabinet used to come out of meetings swearing at his confusion.

    He did a few good things too, but yeah, you could make that case.
    Yes, just merely saved Britain from Nazi invasion in 1940 and helped defeat Hitler. Not much of a legacy really
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    HIGNFY awful this evening. Barely a joke about Reeves and Starmer's budget beyond bus fares, still mainly at Tories expense.

    Left leaning comedians still can't bring themselves to criticise an increasingly unpopular leftwing government

    Was the same last time Labour were in power. It was only once Iraq came along that BBC comedians felt able to criticise Labour.
    Yes but they got away with it then as Blair and New Labour had massive poll leads until 2003.

    Now we already have a poll tonight putting the Tories ahead of Labour with Starmer and Reeves both deep in net negative approval
    I am old enough to remember those relaxed PB Tories who were supremely comfortable in their expectation of swingback.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Scott_xP said:

    @YouGov

    Our final U.S. presidential election MRP has just dropped 👇

    Harris 240 (-10 from mid-Oct)
    Trump 218 (-1)
    Tossups 80 (+11)

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1852460856979734974

    Siri, show me what indecision looks like.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,891
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @YouGov

    Our final U.S. presidential election MRP has just dropped 👇

    Harris 240 (-10 from mid-Oct)
    Trump 218 (-1)
    Tossups 80 (+11)

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1852460856979734974

    This really isn't very helpful.
    You're welcome :)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    15 years and 69 days old Cameron Muir becomes youngest ever FA Cup proper player as he comes on as sub for Notts County.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,787
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    Have we worked out whether Kemi or Jenrick has won yet?

    The results will be announced tomorrow.
    I know that. That's why I want to know beforehand...😎

    It was said that the winner would be revealed in behaviour, with the victor talking to conference attendees preparatory to taking formal command, and the loser...not. I was asking if anybody knew of such signs.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @YouGov

    Our final U.S. presidential election MRP has just dropped 👇

    Harris 240 (-10 from mid-Oct)
    Trump 218 (-1)
    Tossups 80 (+11)

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1852460856979734974

    This really isn't very helpful.
    You're welcome :)
    The link to the state by state is more helpful:

    https://today.yougov.com/elections/us/2024

    Trump gets AZ and GA, Harris gets NV, NC, PA and WI

    Hail to the first female POTUS.
  • Evening all. Interesting article in the FT: Has China already won the EV race?
    https://www.ft.com/content/faa69e29-bc47-46ae-80c7-8240d0aae9e6

    And the answer is yes, they have. They are well ahead of the electrification curve, with too many of the legacy car manufacturers dragged along behind it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @YouGov

    Our final U.S. presidential election MRP has just dropped 👇

    Harris 240 (-10 from mid-Oct)
    Trump 218 (-1)
    Tossups 80 (+11)

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1852460856979734974

    This really isn't very helpful.
    You're welcome :)
    The link to the state by state is more helpful:

    https://today.yougov.com/elections/us/2024

    Trump gets AZ and GA, Harris gets NV, NC, PA and WI

    Hail to the first female POTUS.
    I think that works out as 290 EV for Harris.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,388

    I Love You Maine.
    @StayWonked
    ·
    2h
    Trump is cooked in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania when you compare data from
    @maristpoll
    examine who has YET to vote and those ALREADY voted.


    I Love You Maine.
    @StayWonked
    ·
    2h
    Trump is going to lose all three- and this the electoral college is going to be a complete blowout.

    https://x.com/StayWonked/status/1852434334478717147
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 775
    edited November 1
    viewcode said:

    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    Have we worked out whether Kemi or Jenrick has won yet?

    The results will be announced tomorrow.
    I know that. That's why I want to know beforehand...😎

    It was said that the winner would be revealed in behaviour, with the victor talking to conference attendees preparatory to taking formal command, and the loser...not. I was asking if anybody knew of such signs.
    On the publicly available info both are still acting as if it's all to play for.

    The usual heuristic is that (if tomorrow is televised) the loser will be smiling the most as they're told just beforehand and they overcompensate. These two for various reasons I'm not so sure about that.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573
    HYUFD said:

    'Charles finally cuts off Andrew's cash: King severs brother's '£1million-a-year' allowance - plus read more Harry and Meghan revelations in landmark new book serialised exclusively by the Mail'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14030397/Charles-Andrews-cash-King-Harry-Meghan-revelations-book-Mail.html

    I've not been following the Royal soap opera but it is hard to see what Charles is up to with Prince Andrew. If the choice is between paying him to shut up, or have him trying to raise money privately, the King may have chosen the greater of two evils.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573
    HYUFD said:

    HIGNFY awful this evening. Barely a joke about Reeves and Starmer's budget beyond bus fares, still mainly at Tories expense.

    Left leaning comedians still can't bring themselves to criticise an increasingly unpopular leftwing government

    There was a whole round about the budget, and later they made fun of Starmer repeatedly calling Rishi Prime Minister. What do you want in half an hour?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,388

    Luke Radel @lukeradel

    BREAKING: I asked @SpeakerJohnson if he’ll try to repeal the CHIPS Act if Trump wins and they have control of Congress.

    “I expect that we probably will.”

    @RepWilliams responds: “I will remind him night and day how important the CHIPS Act is.” #NY22

    James Singer @Jemsinger

    Mike Johnson wants to lose Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina jobs


    https://x.com/lukeradel/status/1852457020877582462
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573

    viewcode said:

    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    Have we worked out whether Kemi or Jenrick has won yet?

    The results will be announced tomorrow.
    I know that. That's why I want to know beforehand...😎

    It was said that the winner would be revealed in behaviour, with the victor talking to conference attendees preparatory to taking formal command, and the loser...not. I was asking if anybody knew of such signs.
    On the publicly available info both are still acting as if it's all to play for.

    The usual heuristic is that (if tomorrow is televised) the loser will be smiling the most as they're told just beforehand and they overcompensate. These two for various reasons I'm not so sure about that.
    Turnout will be interesting. Could the average Conservative member be bothered even to vote?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,388
    Utterly deranged.

    Yet again. Just waffling utter nonsense about himself. No pretence that he has to win over people or argue a case.


    Acyn
    @Acyn
    ·
    2m
    Trump: That beautiful white skin that I have would be nice and tan. I have the whitest skin because I never have time to go out in the sun. I have that beautiful white. It could’ve been beautiful tan.

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1852469023663091826
  • FossFoss Posts: 991

    HYUFD said:

    'Charles finally cuts off Andrew's cash: King severs brother's '£1million-a-year' allowance - plus read more Harry and Meghan revelations in landmark new book serialised exclusively by the Mail'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14030397/Charles-Andrews-cash-King-Harry-Meghan-revelations-book-Mail.html

    I've not been following the Royal soap opera but it is hard to see what Charles is up to with Prince Andrew. If the choice is between paying him to shut up, or have him trying to raise money privately, the King may have chosen the greater of two evils.
    If something bad is coming soon then turning the money off beforehand may be an attempt at preemptive separation and reputation management.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,388

    Kamala HQ
    @KamalaHQ
    ·
    6m
    Trump announces he is considering raising taxes on imported goods to “400 percent”: “I don’t give a damn”

    https://x.com/KamalaHQ

  • I Love You Maine.
    @StayWonked
    ·
    2h
    Trump is cooked in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania when you compare data from
    @maristpoll
    examine who has YET to vote and those ALREADY voted.


    I Love You Maine.
    @StayWonked
    ·
    2h
    Trump is going to lose all three- and this the electoral college is going to be a complete blowout.

    https://x.com/StayWonked/status/1852434334478717147

    I believe that my exact wording was "Harris will win - and it won't be close..."

    I'm planning to go to bed and get up at 4am as if I'm on the early flight down to London. Which I will be the same time the week after. I'm not expecting that we'll have it concluded by then either. We're bound to get the mushroom one do some mentalist press conference around breakfast time and I want to be watching.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,891
    Political Polls
    @PpollingNumbers
    General Election Poll

    🔴 Arizona - Trump +1
    🔴 Georgia - Trump +2
    🔴 North Carolina - Trump +1
    🔵 Nevada - Harris +1
    🔵 Pennsylvania - Harris +2
    🔵 Michigan - Harris +2
    🔵 Wisconsin - Harris +3

    YouGov (Times) #B - LV - 10/31

    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1852444640181715175
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    Scott_xP said:

    Political Polls
    @PpollingNumbers
    General Election Poll

    🔴 Arizona - Trump +1
    🔴 Georgia - Trump +2
    🔴 North Carolina - Trump +1
    🔵 Nevada - Harris +1
    🔵 Pennsylvania - Harris +2
    🔵 Michigan - Harris +2
    🔵 Wisconsin - Harris +3

    YouGov (Times) #B - LV - 10/31

    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1852444640181715175

    Interesting as has NC the other way round in the MRP, but otherwise the same. I've topped up on a narrow Harris win.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    Meanwhile, in "not even bothering to get on the ship, which may say something for its seaworthiness" news,

    Excellent lunch with the FT, you really get a sense of what Cleverly is like person-to-person. Plus Lucy gets an exclusive from him that he WON'T be staying in the Shadow Cabinet.

    https://bsky.app/profile/stephenkb.bsky.social/post/3l7vijcgibl26

    Gosh, that's quite the blow. What will frontline politics be without Jimmy Dimmly - a man so stupid he managed to lend enough voters to lose himself the election.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    I don't think she's an idiot, but an idiot who tries her best to get the country back on its feet is someone I value 1000 times more than a genius who doesn't give a monkeys.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    I'll raise you Alexander Johnson. He did of course facilitate Truss.
    It's a pretty competitive field for worst ever Tory leader, but surely Sunak has the unique accolade of the heaviest defeat for the party since universal suffrage?
    That would mean Churchill would be one of the worst Tory leaders ever too. Good luck arguing that case...
    Churchill won in 1951
    Although, sounding sadly Trumpish, he lost the popular vote!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473

    Meanwhile, in "not even bothering to get on the ship, which may say something for its seaworthiness" news,

    Excellent lunch with the FT, you really get a sense of what Cleverly is like person-to-person. Plus Lucy gets an exclusive from him that he WON'T be staying in the Shadow Cabinet.

    https://bsky.app/profile/stephenkb.bsky.social/post/3l7vijcgibl26

    Gosh, that's quite the blow. What will frontline politics be without Jimmy Dimmly - a man so stupid he managed to lend enough voters to lose himself the election.
    It's going to be interesting to see who gets a place in Kemi's shadow cabinet. It's a pretty thin pool to draw on.
  • Meanwhile, in "not even bothering to get on the ship, which may say something for its seaworthiness" news,

    Excellent lunch with the FT, you really get a sense of what Cleverly is like person-to-person. Plus Lucy gets an exclusive from him that he WON'T be staying in the Shadow Cabinet.

    https://bsky.app/profile/stephenkb.bsky.social/post/3l7vijcgibl26

    Gosh, that's quite the blow. What will frontline politics be without Jimmy Dimmly - a man so stupid he managed to lend enough voters to lose himself the election.
    They asked Cleverly what he thought of the swanky restaurant that the FT took him to.

    "Its a shithole" said Cleverly.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    I'll raise you Alexander Johnson. He did of course facilitate Truss.
    It's a pretty competitive field for worst ever Tory leader, but surely Sunak has the unique accolade of the heaviest defeat for the party since universal suffrage?
    That would mean Churchill would be one of the worst Tory leaders ever too. Good luck arguing that case...
    Fought three elections, lost two. Spent most of his time obsessing about foreign affairs to the neglect of important domestic policy. Failed to groom his successor properly. Spent most of his last 18 months in power in such a state of mental decay that the Cabinet used to come out of meetings swearing at his confusion.

    He did a few good things too, but yeah, you could make that case.
    Yes, just merely saved Britain from Nazi invasion in 1940 and helped defeat Hitler. Not much of a legacy really
    Saved the country from the majority in the Tory Party that wanted to negotiate a surrender, I am sure you meant to say.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,946
    edited November 1
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @YouGov

    Our final U.S. presidential election MRP has just dropped 👇

    Harris 240 (-10 from mid-Oct)
    Trump 218 (-1)
    Tossups 80 (+11)

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1852460856979734974

    Siri, show me what indecision looks like.
    It is amusing that with all the billions of dollars spent on campaigning, I imagine hundreds of millions on polls and doubtless billions of words written and spoken, a fair few of them on here, nevertheless tossing a $0.01 coin would probably be as good a way of predicting the result at the moment.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html

    Liz Truss is - by any measure - an idiot. The worst leader in the Conservatives' history.
    I'll raise you Alexander Johnson. He did of course facilitate Truss.
    It's a pretty competitive field for worst ever Tory leader, but surely Sunak has the unique accolade of the heaviest defeat for the party since universal suffrage?
    That would mean Churchill would be one of the worst Tory leaders ever too. Good luck arguing that case...
    Fought three elections, lost two. Spent most of his time obsessing about foreign affairs to the neglect of important domestic policy. Failed to groom his successor properly. Spent most of his last 18 months in power in such a state of mental decay that the Cabinet used to come out of meetings swearing at his confusion.

    He did a few good things too, but yeah, you could make that case.
    Yes, just merely saved Britain from Nazi invasion in 1940 and helped defeat Hitler. Not much of a legacy really
    Saved the country from the majority in the Tory Party that wanted to negotiate a surrender, I am sure you meant to say.
    Wouldn’t have been a surrender, just stopping being at war. There was never a hope of a sucessful German invasion/occupation. The poor French had no English Channel and huge navy to save them.
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