Starmer -26 Sunak - 5 having gone into the election at -42
We Brits love a loser.
Especially if it involves getting caught in a heavy shower without a brolly.
It’s interesting how he gets it right in a way Truss doesn’t. Politics is complicated. She takes herself far too seriously to become a national treasure.
Starmer -26 Sunak - 5 having gone into the election at -42
By tomorrow morning, we will miss him already.
He was very good at PMQs this week too.
He was a crap PM though.
Perhaps if he’d had time to build his skills and profile, work out what he really stood for, and been able to put together his own team, he might have been OK. Perhaps timing did for Rishi and we will mourn for what could have been. But I am a little doubtful. I think he was a decent, middle ranking politician who was overpromoted.
Starmer -26 Sunak - 5 having gone into the election at -42
By tomorrow morning, we will miss him already.
He was very good at PMQs this week too.
He was a crap PM though.
Perhaps if he’d had time to build his skills and profile, work out what he really stood for, and been able to put together his own team, he might have been OK. Perhaps timing did for Rishi and we will mourn for what could have been. But I am a little doubtful. I think he was a decent, middle ranking politician who was overpromoted.
Definitely fast tracked to oblivion. Be careful what you wish for, you might get it.
BMG reporting the first Tory lead since 1754 with:
Con 29 Lab 28 Reform 17 LDs 13 Greens 8
Blue dawn.
What is the record for a previous government winning a huge majority to trailing in the polls?
Keir's no Teflon Tony is he?
I suspect Johnson's awful behaviour changed the media narrative forever.
The focus now is only ever bad news. Same for Liz and Rishi as Starmer.
There is no balanced analysis of the budget unless that means having lefties on to harp about the failure to implement a wealth tax, alongside Farmers and private school operators banging on about how unfair the budget was to them.
For what it's worth it was a piss poor budget and I am standing shoulder to shoulder with the lefties.
Starmer -26 Sunak - 5 having gone into the election at -42
By tomorrow morning, we will miss him already.
He was very good at PMQs this week too.
He was a crap PM though.
Perhaps if he’d had time to build his skills and profile, work out what he really stood for, and been able to put together his own team, he might have been OK. Perhaps timing did for Rishi and we will mourn for what could have been. But I am a little doubtful. I think he was a decent, middle ranking politician who was overpromoted.
The only PM who has had less time as a regular MP than Sunak before becoming PM is...Starmer.
Starmer has been an MP for 9 years, and was almost immediately a shadow minister, and on the Opposition front bench after a year. Sunak was an MP for 7 years, becoming a junior minister after 3 years, and a senior minister after 4 years. Cameron was an MP for 9 years, becoming a shadow minister after 3 years and senior shadow minister after 4/5 years.
Starmer -26 Sunak - 5 having gone into the election at -42
We Brits love a loser.
Especially if it involves getting caught in a heavy shower without a brolly.
It’s interesting how he gets it right in a way Truss doesn’t. Politics is complicated. She takes herself far too seriously to become a national treasure.
Uniform swing, so you know the song... But it does highlight the right's problem.
There is a Lib-Lab split, but (at least for now) it's a helpful efficient split; the two parties don't trip over each other in many places.
The RefCon split just hurts each party. And I don't see how they get even as far as non-aggression without a slice of centrish-right votes peeling off the Conservatives.
There are few centre right swing voters left to peel off the Tories, they are down to their core vote. Indeed arguably if Badenoch or Jenrick doesn't work out at the next GE they might even be better with Rees Mogg, he really would unite the Right and collapse the Reform vote to the Tories and with a Labour vote already under 30% would have a shot at PM even with FPTP. Rees Mogg would regain his Somerset seat on the BMG poll today.
Remember too many centrists mocked Jezza but they weren't laughing on election night 2017 when he united the left behind Labour and got 40% of the vote, a hung parliament and 262 Labour MPs.
Even in 2019 when he lost heavily Labour got a higher voteshare under Corbyn than it had under Brown or Ed Miliband
what about your deliberate misreading earlier? where you inserted the words "if" and "how would" she feel, when Trump used no 'if' or 'would'?
"Let's put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, okay? Let's see how she feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on her face."
Let's translate it into a UK context. If you said, "Tony Blair is a war hawk when he's sitting in a nice building in London. Let's give him a rifle and see how he feels when the guns are trained on his face," would that be a call to execute Tony Blair, or a colourful way of calling out his enthusiasm for putting other people in the line of fire?
Your brain added 'if' and 'would' to Trump's statement where there were none, maybe you should think about that.
Clearly how acceptable it is to say "let's put Tony Blair with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at him, okay? Let's see how he feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on his face" would depend on who's saying it. I would find it pretty unacceptable had Corbyn said it while campaigning in a general election where he had a good chance of becoming Prime Minister. In the context of someone who has talked about using the military against the 'enemy within', and sees himself as completely above the law it is far worse.
Do you think it's literally a call to conscript her and send her to war? Do you give Biden a pass for talking about putting Trump in a bullseye?
Ignore all the mad shit, the misogyny, the racism, inciting a coup, the racketeering, the draft dodging. When Trump suggested guns should be pointed at the face of Liz Cheney (and he was very specific) his words were "taken out of context".
Of course they were William.
It's possible they could be a bit, without it really mattering on his awfulness at all because of the even wider context of what he has often said very clearly and directly, so i don't think the 'out of context' defence really works much.
I think if he had said this in Macdonalds tucking into a whopper it would have been more convincing.
what about your deliberate misreading earlier? where you inserted the words "if" and "how would" she feel, when Trump used no 'if' or 'would'?
"Let's put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, okay? Let's see how she feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on her face."
Let's translate it into a UK context. If you said, "Tony Blair is a war hawk when he's sitting in a nice building in London. Let's give him a rifle and see how he feels when the guns are trained on his face," would that be a call to execute Tony Blair, or a colourful way of calling out his enthusiasm for putting other people in the line of fire?
Your brain added 'if' and 'would' to Trump's statement where there were none, maybe you should think about that.
Clearly how acceptable it is to say "let's put Tony Blair with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at him, okay? Let's see how he feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on his face" would depend on who's saying it. I would find it pretty unacceptable had Corbyn said it while campaigning in a general election where he had a good chance of becoming Prime Minister. In the context of someone who has talked about using the military against the 'enemy within', and sees himself as completely above the law it is far worse.
Do you think it's literally a call to conscript her and send her to war? Do you give Biden a pass for talking about putting Trump in a bullseye?
Ignore all the mad shit, the misogyny, the racism, inciting a coup, the racketeering, the draft dodging. When Trump suggested guns should be pointed at the face of Liz Cheney (and he was very specific) his words were "taken out of context".
Of course they were William.
It's possible they could be a bit, without it really mattering on his awfulness at all because of the even wider context of what he has often said very clearly and directly, so i don't think the 'out of context' defence really works much.
I think if he had said this in Macdonalds tucking into a whopper it would have been more convincing.
Uniform swing, so you know the song... But it does highlight the right's problem.
There is a Lib-Lab split, but (at least for now) it's a helpful efficient split; the two parties don't trip over each other in many places.
The RefCon split just hurts each party. And I don't see how they get even as far as non-aggression without a slice of centrish-right votes peeling off the Conservatives.
There are few centre right swing voters left to peel off the Tories, they are down to their core vote. Indeed arguably if Badenoch or Jenrick doesn't work out at the next GE they might even be better with Rees Mogg, he really would unite the Right and collapse the Reform vote to the Tories and with a Labour vote already under 30% would have a shot at PM even with FPTP. Rees Mogg would regain his Somerset seat on the BMG poll today.
Remember too many centrists mocked Jezza but they weren't laughing on election night 2017 when he united the left behind Labour and got 40% of the vote, a hung parliament and 262 Labour MPs.
Even in 2019 when he lost heavily Labour got a higher voteshare under Corbyn than it had under Brown or Ed Miliband
Rees Mogg is a dinosaur and not an mp anyway
There is talk that if Sunak, Dowden and one other apply to the Chiltern Hundreds, Mogg, Shapps and Mordaunt return to the Commons tout suite.
That putative whale who is squatting on Polymarket has spoken to the WSJ. Apparently he noticed that Trump overperformed his polls in 2016 and 2020 and if it's close and the same thing happens again, he'll win! Amazing! Science! There was me just throwing poo at the walls and drawing bulls-eyes around them. Well that's told me and no mistake.
Uniform swing, so you know the song... But it does highlight the right's problem.
There is a Lib-Lab split, but (at least for now) it's a helpful efficient split; the two parties don't trip over each other in many places.
The RefCon split just hurts each party. And I don't see how they get even as far as non-aggression without a slice of centrish-right votes peeling off the Conservatives.
There are few centre right swing voters left to peel off the Tories, they are down to their core vote. Indeed arguably if Badenoch or Jenrick doesn't work out at the next GE they might even be better with Rees Mogg, he really would unite the Right and collapse the Reform vote to the Tories and with a Labour vote already under 30% would have a shot at PM even with FPTP. Rees Mogg would regain his Somerset seat on the BMG poll today.
Remember too many centrists mocked Jezza but they weren't laughing on election night 2017 when he united the left behind Labour and got 40% of the vote, a hung parliament and 262 Labour MPs.
Even in 2019 when he lost heavily Labour got a higher voteshare under Corbyn than it had under Brown or Ed Miliband
Rees Mogg is a dinosaur and not an mp anyway
There is talk that if Sunak, Dowden and one other apply to the Chiltern Hundreds, Mogg, Shapps and Mordaunt return to the Commons tout suite.
Starmer -26 Sunak - 5 having gone into the election at -42
By tomorrow morning, we will miss him already.
He was very good at PMQs this week too.
The tragedy of Rishi Sunak is he trashed his image by adopting the faux Boris Mr Angry persona instead of remaining the calm, reasonable guy he'd seemed up to then.
The first poll putting the Tories ahead for a very long time.
They obviously prefer a Party without a leader.
They should have gone with my suggestion of going into the General Election with no confirmed party leader so people could imagine the leader they wanted!
Like it or not, the Tories have a Reform problem. Attracting those voters is probably going to be the key to making this a 1 term Labour government.
My hope is they focus on economics and not the culture wars stuff. Reeves' first budget was completely economically illiterate, transferring wealth from the private to the public sector, at the cost of permanently low growth.
If the Tories take a business friendly approach in 2029 they'll have my vote, if they double down on culture wars stuff I'll sit on my hands again and not vote.
The first poll putting the Tories ahead for a very long time.
They obviously prefer a Party without a leader.
They should have gone with my suggestion of going into the General Election with no confirmed party leader so people could imagine the leader they wanted!
A dummy. A third of it would be Johnson. The Next third Sunak. The last part May.
Like it or not, the Tories have a Reform problem. Attracting those voters is probably going to be the key to making this a 1 term Labour government.
My hope is they focus on economics and not the culture wars stuff. Reeves' first budget was completely economically illiterate, transferring wealth from the private to the public sector, at the cost of permanently low growth.
If the Tories take a business friendly approach in 2029 they'll have my vote, if they double down on culture wars stuff I'll sit on my hands again and not vote.
Starmer -26 Sunak - 5 having gone into the election at -42
By tomorrow morning, we will miss him already.
He was very good at PMQs this week too.
The tragedy of Rishi Sunak is he trashed his image by adopting the faux Boris Mr Angry persona instead of remaining the calm, reasonable guy he'd seemed up to then.
Yes. The My angry from Purley act did not seem very authentic.
Starmer -26 Sunak - 5 having gone into the election at -42
By tomorrow morning, we will miss him already.
He was very good at PMQs this week too.
The tragedy of Rishi Sunak is he trashed his image by adopting the faux Boris Mr Angry persona instead of remaining the calm, reasonable guy he'd seemed up to then.
Yes. The My angry from Purley act did not seem very authentic.
Like it or not, the Tories have a Reform problem. Attracting those voters is probably going to be the key to making this a 1 term Labour government.
My hope is they focus on economics and not the culture wars stuff. Reeves' first budget was completely economically illiterate, transferring wealth from the private to the public sector, at the cost of permanently low growth.
If the Tories take a business friendly approach in 2029 they'll have my vote, if they double down on culture wars stuff I'll sit on my hands again and not vote.
That Reform broke through with a decent handful of MPs may make a big difference. Even with a good voteshare they could be seen as mere spoilers if they had none, or a couple, but 5? It feels a bit weightier, they will still be significant so long as they do not implode.
what about your deliberate misreading earlier? where you inserted the words "if" and "how would" she feel, when Trump used no 'if' or 'would'?
"Let's put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, okay? Let's see how she feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on her face."
Let's translate it into a UK context. If you said, "Tony Blair is a war hawk when he's sitting in a nice building in London. Let's give him a rifle and see how he feels when the guns are trained on his face," would that be a call to execute Tony Blair, or a colourful way of calling out his enthusiasm for putting other people in the line of fire?
Your brain added 'if' and 'would' to Trump's statement where there were none, maybe you should think about that.
Clearly how acceptable it is to say "let's put Tony Blair with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at him, okay? Let's see how he feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on his face" would depend on who's saying it. I would find it pretty unacceptable had Corbyn said it while campaigning in a general election where he had a good chance of becoming Prime Minister. In the context of someone who has talked about using the military against the 'enemy within', and sees himself as completely above the law it is far worse.
Do you think it's literally a call to conscript her and send her to war? Do you give Biden a pass for talking about putting Trump in a bullseye?
Ignore all the mad shit, the misogyny, the racism, inciting a coup, the racketeering, the draft dodging. When Trump suggested guns should be pointed at the face of Liz Cheney (and he was very specific) his words were "taken out of context".
Of course they were William.
It's possible they could be a bit, without it really mattering on his awfulness at all because of the even wider context of what he has often said very clearly and directly, so i don't think the 'out of context' defence really works much.
I think if he had said this in Macdonalds tucking into a whopper it would have been more convincing.
what about your deliberate misreading earlier? where you inserted the words "if" and "how would" she feel, when Trump used no 'if' or 'would'?
"Let's put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, okay? Let's see how she feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on her face."
Let's translate it into a UK context. If you said, "Tony Blair is a war hawk when he's sitting in a nice building in London. Let's give him a rifle and see how he feels when the guns are trained on his face," would that be a call to execute Tony Blair, or a colourful way of calling out his enthusiasm for putting other people in the line of fire?
Your brain added 'if' and 'would' to Trump's statement where there were none, maybe you should think about that.
Clearly how acceptable it is to say "let's put Tony Blair with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at him, okay? Let's see how he feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on his face" would depend on who's saying it. I would find it pretty unacceptable had Corbyn said it while campaigning in a general election where he had a good chance of becoming Prime Minister. In the context of someone who has talked about using the military against the 'enemy within', and sees himself as completely above the law it is far worse.
Do you think it's literally a call to conscript her and send her to war? Do you give Biden a pass for talking about putting Trump in a bullseye?
Ignore all the mad shit, the misogyny, the racism, inciting a coup, the racketeering, the draft dodging. When Trump suggested guns should be pointed at the face of Liz Cheney (and he was very specific) his words were "taken out of context".
Of course they were William.
It's possible they could be a bit, without it really mattering on his awfulness at all because of the even wider context of what he has often said very clearly and directly, so i don't think the 'out of context' defence really works much.
I think if he had said this in Macdonalds tucking into a whopper it would have been more convincing.
Like it or not, the Tories have a Reform problem. Attracting those voters is probably going to be the key to making this a 1 term Labour government.
My hope is they focus on economics and not the culture wars stuff. Reeves' first budget was completely economically illiterate, transferring wealth from the private to the public sector, at the cost of permanently low growth.
If the Tories take a business friendly approach in 2029 they'll have my vote, if they double down on culture wars stuff I'll sit on my hands again and not vote.
Like it or not, the Tories have a Reform problem. Attracting those voters is probably going to be the key to making this a 1 term Labour government.
My hope is they focus on economics and not the culture wars stuff. Reeves' first budget was completely economically illiterate, transferring wealth from the private to the public sector, at the cost of permanently low growth.
If the Tories take a business friendly approach in 2029 they'll have my vote, if they double down on culture wars stuff I'll sit on my hands again and not vote.
Like it or not, the Tories have a Reform problem. Attracting those voters is probably going to be the key to making this a 1 term Labour government.
My hope is they focus on economics and not the culture wars stuff. Reeves' first budget was completely economically illiterate, transferring wealth from the private to the public sector, at the cost of permanently low growth.
If the Tories take a business friendly approach in 2029 they'll have my vote, if they double down on culture wars stuff I'll sit on my hands again and not vote.
Like it or not, the Tories have a Reform problem. Attracting those voters is probably going to be the key to making this a 1 term Labour government.
My hope is they focus on economics and not the culture wars stuff. Reeves' first budget was completely economically illiterate, transferring wealth from the private to the public sector, at the cost of permanently low growth.
If the Tories take a business friendly approach in 2029 they'll have my vote, if they double down on culture wars stuff I'll sit on my hands again and not vote.
Like it or not, the Tories have a Reform problem. Attracting those voters is probably going to be the key to making this a 1 term Labour government.
My hope is they focus on economics and not the culture wars stuff. Reeves' first budget was completely economically illiterate, transferring wealth from the private to the public sector, at the cost of permanently low growth.
If the Tories take a business friendly approach in 2029 they'll have my vote, if they double down on culture wars stuff I'll sit on my hands again and not vote.
Like it or not, the Tories have a Reform problem. Attracting those voters is probably going to be the key to making this a 1 term Labour government.
My hope is they focus on economics and not the culture wars stuff. Reeves' first budget was completely economically illiterate, transferring wealth from the private to the public sector, at the cost of permanently low growth.
If the Tories take a business friendly approach in 2029 they'll have my vote, if they double down on culture wars stuff I'll sit on my hands again and not vote.
Like it or not, the Tories have a Reform problem. Attracting those voters is probably going to be the key to making this a 1 term Labour government.
My hope is they focus on economics and not the culture wars stuff. Reeves' first budget was completely economically illiterate, transferring wealth from the private to the public sector, at the cost of permanently low growth.
If the Tories take a business friendly approach in 2029 they'll have my vote, if they double down on culture wars stuff I'll sit on my hands again and not vote.
Like it or not, the Tories have a Reform problem. Attracting those voters is probably going to be the key to making this a 1 term Labour government.
My hope is they focus on economics and not the culture wars stuff. Reeves' first budget was completely economically illiterate, transferring wealth from the private to the public sector, at the cost of permanently low growth.
If the Tories take a business friendly approach in 2029 they'll have my vote, if they double down on culture wars stuff I'll sit on my hands again and not vote.
I think voters quite like higher spending on stuff they like.
And that's what makes it difficult. Electors want multiple things, some of which contradict each other.
Blooming electors.
(On the BMG poll, if it is partially a Sunak Sympathy Snog from the voters, that spells trouble for the Conservatives. Neither of his potential replacements looks that sympathetic.)
Like it or not, the Tories have a Reform problem. Attracting those voters is probably going to be the key to making this a 1 term Labour government.
My hope is they focus on economics and not the culture wars stuff. Reeves' first budget was completely economically illiterate, transferring wealth from the private to the public sector, at the cost of permanently low growth.
If the Tories take a business friendly approach in 2029 they'll have my vote, if they double down on culture wars stuff I'll sit on my hands again and not vote.
Like it or not, the Tories have a Reform problem. Attracting those voters is probably going to be the key to making this a 1 term Labour government.
My hope is they focus on economics and not the culture wars stuff. Reeves' first budget was completely economically illiterate, transferring wealth from the private to the public sector, at the cost of permanently low growth.
If the Tories take a business friendly approach in 2029 they'll have my vote, if they double down on culture wars stuff I'll sit on my hands again and not vote.
Tbh, at last SKS fans do have some explaining to do.
Bloke is crap.
I wish this government was unpopular for the right reasons. Massive tax, spending and borrowing, sure - but also NICs/IT consolidation, triple lock in the bin, fuel duty back to sanity (or a proper reform of motoring tax), a full council tax reform based on house prices (and double it!), public health investment, hospital spending freeze, HS2 to Manchester, sort our devolution settlements and push more to the north of England - basically anything Red in the political RAG rating.
Might as well, pensioners and landlords hate them anyway.
Like it or not, the Tories have a Reform problem. Attracting those voters is probably going to be the key to making this a 1 term Labour government.
My hope is they focus on economics and not the culture wars stuff. Reeves' first budget was completely economically illiterate, transferring wealth from the private to the public sector, at the cost of permanently low growth.
If the Tories take a business friendly approach in 2029 they'll have my vote, if they double down on culture wars stuff I'll sit on my hands again and not vote.
Tbh, at last SKS fans do have some explaining to do.
Bloke is crap.
I wish this government was unpopular for the right reasons. Massive tax, spending and borrowing, sure - but also NICs/IT consolidation, triple lock in the bin, fuel duty back to sanity (or a proper reform of motoring tax), a full council tax reform based on house prices (and double it!), public health investment, hospital spending freeze, HS2 to Manchester, sort our devolution settlements and push more to the north of England - basically anything Red in the political RAG rating.
Might as well, pensioners and landlords hate them anyway.
You may not believe me but I agree largely with your first paragraph
Tbh, at last SKS fans do have some explaining to do.
Bloke is crap.
I wish this government was unpopular for the right reasons. Massive tax, spending and borrowing, sure - but also NICs/IT consolidation, triple lock in the bin, fuel duty back to sanity (or a proper reform of motoring tax), a full council tax reform based on house prices (and double it!), public health investment, hospital spending freeze, HS2 to Manchester, sort our devolution settlements and push more to the north of England - basically anything Red in the political RAG rating.
Might as well, pensioners and landlords hate them anyway.
If you did all that and pumped it into the economy in just 1-2 years it would lead to a massive spike in inflation, though.
Tbh, at last SKS fans do have some explaining to do.
Bloke is crap.
I wish this government was unpopular for the right reasons. Massive tax, spending and borrowing, sure - but also NICs/IT consolidation, triple lock in the bin, fuel duty back to sanity (or a proper reform of motoring tax), a full council tax reform based on house prices (and double it!), public health investment, hospital spending freeze, HS2 to Manchester, sort our devolution settlements and push more to the north of England - basically anything Red in the political RAG rating.
Might as well, pensioners and landlords hate them anyway.
You may not believe me but I agree largely with your first paragraph
Fair enough! I think PB Tories should accept that we elected a left-wing goverment, and that means higher taxes and higher spending.
But I also think PB Lefties should hold them to the same standards that we did the Conservatives; for example, not re-igniting something like HS2 is just as bad as cancelling it, particularly when you've loosened the fiscal rules "for investment".
87% voting for neoliberalism 8% for progressive policies
Not good news imo
Do we think the budget was neoliberal?
From Wiki:
Neoliberal policies center around economic liberalization, including reductions to trade barriers and other policies meant to increase free trade, deregulation of industry, privatization of state-owned enterprises, reductions in government spending, and monetarism. Neoliberal theory contends that free markets encourage economic efficiency, economic growth, and technological innovation. State intervention, even if aimed at encouraging these phenomena, is generally believed to worsen economic performance.
Tbh, at last SKS fans do have some explaining to do.
Bloke is crap.
I wish this government was unpopular for the right reasons. Massive tax, spending and borrowing, sure - but also NICs/IT consolidation, triple lock in the bin, fuel duty back to sanity (or a proper reform of motoring tax), a full council tax reform based on house prices (and double it!), public health investment, hospital spending freeze, HS2 to Manchester, sort our devolution settlements and push more to the north of England - basically anything Red in the political RAG rating.
Might as well, pensioners and landlords hate them anyway.
You may not believe me but I agree largely with your first paragraph
Fair enough! I think PB Tories should accept that we elected a left-wing goverment, and that means higher taxes and higher spending.
But I also think PB Lefties should hold them to the same standards that we did the Conservatives; for example, not re-igniting something like HS2 is just as bad as cancelling it, particularly when you've loosened the fiscal rules "for investment".
I really couldn't find anything that isn't common sense in your comments but my concern is that we are heading for lower growth and higher inflation with higher mortgage rates
The 10 year gilt closed at 4.461 tonight which must be a concern for borrowing cost but maybe it will settle lower but it is a concern
Tbh, at last SKS fans do have some explaining to do.
Bloke is crap.
I wish this government was unpopular for the right reasons. Massive tax, spending and borrowing, sure - but also NICs/IT consolidation, triple lock in the bin, fuel duty back to sanity (or a proper reform of motoring tax), a full council tax reform based on house prices (and double it!), public health investment, hospital spending freeze, HS2 to Manchester, sort our devolution settlements and push more to the north of England - basically anything Red in the political RAG rating.
Might as well, pensioners and landlords hate them anyway.
If you did all that and pumped it into the economy in just 1-2 years it would lead to a massive spike in inflation, though.
Have you seen the spending plans?! Massively front-loaded - I think there is a risk of high inflation just from that. And politically a bit odd, because the growth will come so much later (in theory).
The budget wasn't a disaster. Not a roaring success either, and I do think the IFS comment about the next one is interesting - they are basically giving Labour one more chance. Stuff like NICs/income tax, council tax reform takes years - they need to get on with it.
Let’s be fair - somewhat - to Labour (not something you’ll often hear me say).
The increases in Defence and Justice budgets are good things. Long overdue. @TSE was right that successive Conservative PM’s might be branded “guilty men” if we end up in a shooting war.
Scrapping the WFA is correct. And, the triple lock must go.
The last government was awful, and handed a ton of problems to Labour.
Labour has 412 MP’s. They can take any decision they wish. Let’s pray they make the right ones.
I do hope public sector workers have now stfu from justifying the enormous ENIC increase
The entire twenty-five billion employment tax is coming from the private sector
That's £25b of redundancies, and of cancelled payrises and future hires
And businesses folding
It looks like an anti-growth economic plan to me
I think the private:public sector thing is a red herring. I appreciate that's kinda your thing, but the real issue that this is a tax on "working people" whether they are sorting the bins out for the council or making soy lattes for a private sector business.
The OBR have set out their expectations about pass-through to employment, wages, hours worked and so on - most of it to wages. It's chunky.There are interesting interactions at the bottom - the minimum wage cannot be squeezed so that must impact on employment and hours instead.
And the change in the secondary threshold means the impact is much, much higher for part-time workers earning in and around £10,000 - that's single parents etc.
The change in the employment allowance is great for very small businesses.
But my challenge to you and others: if employer NICs is so pernicious, why do we have it all? And why didn't the Tories abolish it?
Uniform swing, so you know the song... But it does highlight the right's problem.
There is a Lib-Lab split, but (at least for now) it's a helpful efficient split; the two parties don't trip over each other in many places.
The RefCon split just hurts each party. And I don't see how they get even as far as non-aggression without a slice of centrish-right votes peeling off the Conservatives.
There are few centre right swing voters left to peel off the Tories, they are down to their core vote. Indeed arguably if Badenoch or Jenrick doesn't work out at the next GE they might even be better with Rees Mogg, he really would unite the Right and collapse the Reform vote to the Tories and with a Labour vote already under 30% would have a shot at PM even with FPTP. Rees Mogg would regain his Somerset seat on the BMG poll today.
Remember too many centrists mocked Jezza but they weren't laughing on election night 2017 when he united the left behind Labour and got 40% of the vote, a hung parliament and 262 Labour MPs.
Even in 2019 when he lost heavily Labour got a higher voteshare under Corbyn than it had under Brown or Ed Miliband
Rees Mogg is a dinosaur and not an mp anyway
If Sunak and Dowden bow out we could see Mogg AND Truss.back in the saddle.
I do hope public sector workers have now stfu from justifying the enormous ENIC increase
The entire twenty-five billion employment tax is coming from the private sector
That's £25b of redundancies, and of cancelled payrises and future hires
And businesses folding
It looks like an anti-growth economic plan to me
Let’s not forget international context here. We still have one of the lowest rates of employers NI in the rich world. Netherlands 23%, Germany 20%, Poland 22%, everyone’s favourite Meloni’s Italy 30%, Spain 30%, France up to 50%. Even Singapore 17%. Puts our 15% in perspective. It’s pretty much bang on the global average.
Uniform swing, so you know the song... But it does highlight the right's problem.
There is a Lib-Lab split, but (at least for now) it's a helpful efficient split; the two parties don't trip over each other in many places.
The RefCon split just hurts each party. And I don't see how they get even as far as non-aggression without a slice of centrish-right votes peeling off the Conservatives.
There are few centre right swing voters left to peel off the Tories, they are down to their core vote. Indeed arguably if Badenoch or Jenrick doesn't work out at the next GE they might even be better with Rees Mogg, he really would unite the Right and collapse the Reform vote to the Tories and with a Labour vote already under 30% would have a shot at PM even with FPTP. Rees Mogg would regain his Somerset seat on the BMG poll today.
Remember too many centrists mocked Jezza but they weren't laughing on election night 2017 when he united the left behind Labour and got 40% of the vote, a hung parliament and 262 Labour MPs.
Even in 2019 when he lost heavily Labour got a higher voteshare under Corbyn than it had under Brown or Ed Miliband
Rees Mogg is a dinosaur and not an mp anyway
If Sunak and Dowden bow out we could see Mogg AND Truss.back in the saddle.
No, Truss is gone had her day. Mogg however is certainly a possible future Tory leader and on tonight's BMG poll would win his seat back.
Just as students, public sector workers and trade unionists and pacifists loved singing 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn', one can easily imagine farmers, small businessmen, army officers and hardcore Brexiteers singing 'Three cheers for the Mogg!'
I do hope public sector workers have now stfu from justifying the enormous ENIC increase
The entire twenty-five billion employment tax is coming from the private sector
That's £25b of redundancies, and of cancelled payrises and future hires
And businesses folding
It looks like an anti-growth economic plan to me
I think the private:public sector thing is a red herring. I appreciate that's kinda your thing, but the real issue that this is a tax on "working people" whether they are sorting the bins out for the council or making soy lattes for a private sector business.
The OBR have set out their expectations about pass-through to employment, wages, hours worked and so on - most of it to wages. It's chunky.There are interesting interactions at the bottom - the minimum wage cannot be squeezed so that must impact on employment and hours instead.
And the change in the secondary threshold means the impact is much, much higher for part-time workers earning in and around £10,000 - that's single parents etc.
The change in the employment allowance is great for very small businesses.
But my challenge to you and others: if employer NICs is so pernicious, why do we have it all? And why didn't the Tories abolish it?
The Tories chose to reduce employee NI and left employer NI unchanged. The net effect of the last 2 budgets is that NI overall is unchanged, but there has been a compulsory pay rise enforced on employers of 2% for their workers.
I do hope public sector workers have now stfu from justifying the enormous ENIC increase
The entire twenty-five billion employment tax is coming from the private sector
That's £25b of redundancies, and of cancelled payrises and future hires
And businesses folding
It looks like an anti-growth economic plan to me
Let’s not forget international context here. We still have one of the lowest rates of employers NI in the rich world. Netherlands 23%, Germany 20%, Poland 22%, everyone’s favourite Meloni’s Italy 30%, Spain 30%, France up to 50%. Even Singapore 17%. Puts our 15% in perspective. It’s pretty much bang on the global average.
Uniform swing, so you know the song... But it does highlight the right's problem.
There is a Lib-Lab split, but (at least for now) it's a helpful efficient split; the two parties don't trip over each other in many places.
The RefCon split just hurts each party. And I don't see how they get even as far as non-aggression without a slice of centrish-right votes peeling off the Conservatives.
There are few centre right swing voters left to peel off the Tories, they are down to their core vote. Indeed arguably if Badenoch or Jenrick doesn't work out at the next GE they might even be better with Rees Mogg, he really would unite the Right and collapse the Reform vote to the Tories and with a Labour vote already under 30% would have a shot at PM even with FPTP. Rees Mogg would regain his Somerset seat on the BMG poll today.
Remember too many centrists mocked Jezza but they weren't laughing on election night 2017 when he united the left behind Labour and got 40% of the vote, a hung parliament and 262 Labour MPs.
Even in 2019 when he lost heavily Labour got a higher voteshare under Corbyn than it had under Brown or Ed Miliband
Rees Mogg is a dinosaur and not an mp anyway
If Sunak and Dowden bow out we could see Mogg AND Truss.back in the saddle.
No, Truss is gone had her day. Mogg however is certainly a possible future Tory leader and on tonight's BMG poll would win his seat back
I was joking. They say the returnees are Mogg, Mordaunt and Shapps.
I do hope public sector workers have now stfu from justifying the enormous ENIC increase
The entire twenty-five billion employment tax is coming from the private sector
That's £25b of redundancies, and of cancelled payrises and future hires
And businesses folding
It looks like an anti-growth economic plan to me
Let’s not forget international context here. We still have one of the lowest rates of employers NI in the rich world. Netherlands 23%, Germany 20%, Poland 22%, everyone’s favourite Meloni’s Italy 30%, Spain 30%, France up to 50%. Even Singapore 17%. Puts our 15% in perspective. It’s pretty much bang on the global average.
Interesting cherrypick of examples.
Victoria, Australia 4.85% (and this is not the lowest rate in Australia, I just chose it as where I used to live).
Uniform swing, so you know the song... But it does highlight the right's problem.
There is a Lib-Lab split, but (at least for now) it's a helpful efficient split; the two parties don't trip over each other in many places.
The RefCon split just hurts each party. And I don't see how they get even as far as non-aggression without a slice of centrish-right votes peeling off the Conservatives.
There are few centre right swing voters left to peel off the Tories, they are down to their core vote. Indeed arguably if Badenoch or Jenrick doesn't work out at the next GE they might even be better with Rees Mogg, he really would unite the Right and collapse the Reform vote to the Tories and with a Labour vote already under 30% would have a shot at PM even with FPTP. Rees Mogg would regain his Somerset seat on the BMG poll today.
Remember too many centrists mocked Jezza but they weren't laughing on election night 2017 when he united the left behind Labour and got 40% of the vote, a hung parliament and 262 Labour MPs.
Even in 2019 when he lost heavily Labour got a higher voteshare under Corbyn than it had under Brown or Ed Miliband
Rees Mogg is a dinosaur and not an mp anyway
If Sunak and Dowden bow out we could see Mogg AND Truss.back in the saddle.
No, Truss is gone had her day. Mogg however is certainly a possible future Tory leader and on tonight's BMG poll would win his seat back.
Just as students, public sector workers and trade unionists and pacifists loved singing 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn', one can easily imagine farmers, small businessmen, army officers and hardcore Brexiteers singing 'Three cheers for the Mogg!'
Only in your mind and a few other right wingers is Mogg the answer to anything
Uniform swing, so you know the song... But it does highlight the right's problem.
There is a Lib-Lab split, but (at least for now) it's a helpful efficient split; the two parties don't trip over each other in many places.
The RefCon split just hurts each party. And I don't see how they get even as far as non-aggression without a slice of centrish-right votes peeling off the Conservatives.
There are few centre right swing voters left to peel off the Tories, they are down to their core vote. Indeed arguably if Badenoch or Jenrick doesn't work out at the next GE they might even be better with Rees Mogg, he really would unite the Right and collapse the Reform vote to the Tories and with a Labour vote already under 30% would have a shot at PM even with FPTP. Rees Mogg would regain his Somerset seat on the BMG poll today.
Remember too many centrists mocked Jezza but they weren't laughing on election night 2017 when he united the left behind Labour and got 40% of the vote, a hung parliament and 262 Labour MPs.
Even in 2019 when he lost heavily Labour got a higher voteshare under Corbyn than it had under Brown or Ed Miliband
Rees Mogg is a dinosaur and not an mp anyway
If Sunak and Dowden bow out we could see Mogg AND Truss.back in the saddle.
No, Truss is gone had her day. Mogg however is certainly a possible future Tory leader and on tonight's BMG poll would win his seat back.
Just as students, public sector workers and trade unionists and pacifists loved singing 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn', one can easily imagine farmers, small businessmen, army officers and hardcore Brexiteers singing 'Three cheers for the Mogg!'
'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS
I do hope public sector workers have now stfu from justifying the enormous ENIC increase
The entire twenty-five billion employment tax is coming from the private sector
That's £25b of redundancies, and of cancelled payrises and future hires
And businesses folding
It looks like an anti-growth economic plan to me
I think the private:public sector thing is a red herring. I appreciate that's kinda your thing, but the real issue that this is a tax on "working people" whether they are sorting the bins out for the council or making soy lattes for a private sector business.
The OBR have set out their expectations about pass-through to employment, wages, hours worked and so on - most of it to wages. It's chunky.There are interesting interactions at the bottom - the minimum wage cannot be squeezed so that must impact on employment and hours instead.
And the change in the secondary threshold means the impact is much, much higher for part-time workers earning in and around £10,000 - that's single parents etc.
The change in the employment allowance is great for very small businesses.
But my challenge to you and others: if employer NICs is so pernicious, why do we have it all? And why didn't the Tories abolish it?
TLDR: We have it because Governments want to effectively boost Income Tax without the appearance of boosting income tax. Ditto for Corporation Tax. Ditto the Tories.
As I understand it, the older crowd like it because when they put their bins out the neighbours don't see a ton of empty wine bottles in the recycling.
Uniform swing, so you know the song... But it does highlight the right's problem.
There is a Lib-Lab split, but (at least for now) it's a helpful efficient split; the two parties don't trip over each other in many places.
The RefCon split just hurts each party. And I don't see how they get even as far as non-aggression without a slice of centrish-right votes peeling off the Conservatives.
There are few centre right swing voters left to peel off the Tories, they are down to their core vote. Indeed arguably if Badenoch or Jenrick doesn't work out at the next GE they might even be better with Rees Mogg, he really would unite the Right and collapse the Reform vote to the Tories and with a Labour vote already under 30% would have a shot at PM even with FPTP. Rees Mogg would regain his Somerset seat on the BMG poll today.
Remember too many centrists mocked Jezza but they weren't laughing on election night 2017 when he united the left behind Labour and got 40% of the vote, a hung parliament and 262 Labour MPs.
Even in 2019 when he lost heavily Labour got a higher voteshare under Corbyn than it had under Brown or Ed Miliband
Rees Mogg is a dinosaur and not an mp anyway
If Sunak and Dowden bow out we could see Mogg AND Truss.back in the saddle.
No, Truss is gone had her day. Mogg however is certainly a possible future Tory leader and on tonight's BMG poll would win his seat back.
Just as students, public sector workers and trade unionists and pacifists loved singing 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn', one can easily imagine farmers, small businessmen, army officers and hardcore Brexiteers singing 'Three cheers for the Mogg!'
Win or lose rightwingers would have great fun with Mogg as leader while centre left centrists go in full panic mode.
Much as leftwingers had great fun under Corbyn while centre right centrists were in full panic mode and Corbyn to be fair to him even managed a hung parliament in 2017
'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS
'Spreadsheet man' Rishi Sunak ran the Tory train into the buffers - he's to blame for the Conservative Party's worst defeat in two centuries, writes LIZ TRUSS
Comments
Keir's no Teflon Tony is he?
Perhaps if he’d had time to build his skills and profile, work out what he really stood for, and been able to put together his own team, he might have been OK. Perhaps timing did for Rishi and we will mourn for what could have been. But I am a little doubtful. I think he was a decent, middle ranking politician who was overpromoted.
The focus now is only ever bad news. Same for Liz and Rishi as Starmer.
There is no balanced analysis of the budget unless that means having lefties on to harp about the failure to implement a wealth tax, alongside Farmers and private school operators banging on about how unfair the budget was to them.
For what it's worth it was a piss poor budget and I am standing shoulder to shoulder with the lefties.
I thought he was a bit like Tweedledum trying to create a fight, but Tweedledee was not in the building.
But TBF Rachel Reeves had been quite disdainfully rude about him en passant.
Westminster voting intention
CON: 29% (+4)
LAB: 28% (-2)
REF: 17% (-3)
LDEM: 13% (-)
GRN: 8% (+1)
via @BMGResearch, 30 - 31 Oct
SKS fans please explain
Starmer has been an MP for 9 years, and was almost immediately a shadow minister, and on the Opposition front bench after a year. Sunak was an MP for 7 years, becoming a junior minister after 3 years, and a senior minister after 4 years. Cameron was an MP for 9 years, becoming a shadow minister after 3 years and senior shadow minister after 4/5 years.
My interview with the youngest new Tory MP @ShivaniRaja_LE
🗳️Why she almost didn’t vote in the leadership election
⚖️ ‘Yes, why not’ explore leaving the ECHR
😍 Crush on David Cameron: ‘he’s just so charismatic and charming’
https://nitter.poast.org/harriet_symonds/status/1851965918022148179#m
But a gallant loser is still a loser
https://nitter.poast.org/Domahhhh/status/1852422106102776290#m
But before getting too excited Techne on the same dates gives Labour +7
Con 229
Lab 304
Lib 66
Ref 7
Labour 22 short of a majority.
Like it or not, the Tories have a Reform problem. Attracting those voters is probably going to be the key to making this a 1 term Labour government.
My hope is they focus on economics and not the culture wars stuff. Reeves' first budget was completely economically illiterate, transferring wealth from the private to the public sector, at the cost of permanently low growth.
If the Tories take a business friendly approach in 2029 they'll have my vote, if they double down on culture wars stuff I'll sit on my hands again and not vote.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ab7eVVG3I8s
Bloke is crap.
Blooming electors.
(On the BMG poll, if it is partially a Sunak Sympathy Snog from the voters, that spells trouble for the Conservatives. Neither of his potential replacements looks that sympathetic.)
8% for progressive policies
Not good news imo
Going down to Chinatown.
Might as well, pensioners and landlords hate them anyway.
We didn't have to have this shower for another 6 months.
But I also think PB Lefties should hold them to the same standards that we did the Conservatives; for example, not re-igniting something like HS2 is just as bad as cancelling it, particularly when you've loosened the fiscal rules "for investment".
From Wiki:
Neoliberal policies center around economic liberalization, including reductions to trade barriers and other policies meant to increase free trade, deregulation of industry, privatization of state-owned enterprises, reductions in government spending, and monetarism. Neoliberal theory contends that free markets encourage economic efficiency, economic growth, and technological innovation. State intervention, even if aimed at encouraging these phenomena, is generally believed to worsen economic performance.
The 10 year gilt closed at 4.461 tonight which must be a concern for borrowing cost but maybe it will settle lower but it is a concern
The budget wasn't a disaster. Not a roaring success either, and I do think the IFS comment about the next one is interesting - they are basically giving Labour one more chance. Stuff like NICs/income tax, council tax reform takes years - they need to get on with it.
The entire twenty-five billion employment tax is coming from the private sector
That's £25b of redundancies, and of cancelled payrises and future hires
And businesses folding
It looks like an anti-growth economic plan to me
The increases in Defence and Justice budgets are good things. Long overdue. @TSE was right that successive Conservative PM’s might be branded “guilty men” if we end up in a shooting war.
Scrapping the WFA is correct. And, the triple lock must go.
The last government was awful, and handed a ton of problems to Labour.
Labour has 412 MP’s. They can take any decision they wish. Let’s pray they make the right ones.
The OBR have set out their expectations about pass-through to employment, wages, hours worked and so on - most of it to wages. It's chunky.There are interesting interactions at the bottom - the minimum wage cannot be squeezed so that must impact on employment and hours instead.
And the change in the secondary threshold means the impact is much, much higher for part-time workers earning in and around £10,000 - that's single parents etc.
The change in the employment allowance is great for very small businesses.
But my challenge to you and others: if employer NICs is so pernicious, why do we have it all? And why didn't the Tories abolish it?
Just as students, public sector workers and trade unionists and pacifists loved singing 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn', one can easily imagine farmers, small businessmen, army officers and hardcore Brexiteers singing 'Three cheers for the Mogg!'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14030397/Charles-Andrews-cash-King-Harry-Meghan-revelations-book-Mail.html
Victoria, Australia 4.85% (and this is not the lowest rate in Australia, I just chose it as where I used to live).
USA Federal 7.65%
Tamworth 1
Huddersfield 0
44 mins
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/mailplus/article-14030145/Spreadsheet-man-Rishi-Sunak-ran-Tory-train-buffers-hes-blame-Conservative-Partys-worst-defeat-two-centuries-writes-LIZ-TRUSS.html
This one is a generous leaving present for Rishi - perhaps the only poll lead he will ever record.
Much as leftwingers had great fun under Corbyn while centre right centrists were in full panic mode and Corbyn to be fair to him even managed a hung parliament in 2017