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Could this mean shy (young) Trumpers? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,051
    Sandpit said:

    We’re only a few weeks away from the annual stories about “Muslims find ‘Christmas’ offensive”.

    No they don’t, it’s the educated white liberal wokesters in HR at the council who find ‘Christmas’ offensive, and think you should too.
    We'll get the debate over GMT v. BST and poppy fascism before that.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,786
    A

    Have you ever considered that you're a bit weird?
    I presume you're highly educated yet still voted Conservative, which makes you "weirder" than Nick based on voting patterns from GE 24.
  • The
    eek said:

    Do all the young lady Trump fans have account numbers with a lot of numbers at the end?
    My favourite ever lady Trump was a peroxide blonde called Lindy
    something-or-other, on Twitter.

    Her profile photo was of a young blonde in a Baywatch-styie, but holding a very large semi-automatic rifle. She did seem to be a real person, though, judging from the exchanges with Marjorie Taylor Greene that were on her page.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,787
    TimS said:

    There are big u-shaped tables here with little desk mics and black place markers saying “Royaume Uni”. But photography is annoyingly forbidden.

    TimS in That Europe facing down The Forrin

    TimS in That Europe

  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953
    Leon said:

    Yep. People can literally see stores locking away items that were never locked away before. They can see stores closing DOWN because of shoplifting

    This is their lived experience. No folder full of statistics is gonna persuade them otherwise
    I've seen more low level crime in the last year in London (presumably all unreported, certainly all unsolved) than I have in the last decade put together.

    I've personally come close to being mowed down by people on ebikes twice this year, have had friends had their phones snatched out of their hands, know people who've been pickpocketed, had mates with girlfriends who've been followed home from the tube. Either my friends have had a particularly unlucky year or something is up. As a result I'm always on my guard now in a way I never used to be. A sense of low level menace I haven't felt on the streets in years, since before CCTV was widespread. And I don't think it's just London. See Taz the other day making a similar point about youths intimidating a village near him up north.

    So even though stats for big ticket items like stabbing and shooting and breaking and entering might be down, no amount of being battered over the head with statistics is going to convince me that things are getting better. It's the low level stuff that changes your experience, your perception, and hence, how you vote.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921

    If he is found guilty, I fear a full downing of weapons from armed response police.
    I think that is a cast iron certainty.

    It is interesting how the press frames this and the picture they always use of him. Happy and smiling. Butter wouldn't melt.

    Mind you I think if it is a not guilty then there will be a reaction too from people who have convinced themselves he was murdered.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,709

    We'll get the debate over GMT v. BST and poppy fascism before that.
    Only a week until the annual clocks debate. So looking forward to it all over again.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    USA Today has Harris down to a 1% lead, I think that's a proper pollster in case anyone has been suspecting the right have been flooding the zone with dodgy polling that flatters Trump.

    Seems like the polymarket whale dumping money on Trump was ahead of the game?

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/21/harris-trump-tied-battle-latino-black-voters/75682566007/
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,411
    Pulpstar said:

    Not before time tbh.
    Yes how dare the lower classes aspire to anything that resembles independence or opportunity?

    Much better to keep them dependent on the state like modern-day serfs. That way they'll continue to vote Labour forever.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,051
    Eabhal said:

    A

    I presume you're highly educated yet still voted Conservative, which makes you "weirder" than Nick based on voting patterns from GE 24.
    Not really. Lots of highly educated people vote Conservative.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,982
    edited October 2024
    kyf_100 said:

    I've seen more low level crime in the last year in London (presumably all unreported, certainly all unsolved) than I have in the last decade put together.

    I've personally come close to being mowed down by people on ebikes twice this year, have had friends had their phones snatched out of their hands, know people who've been pickpocketed, had mates with girlfriends who've been followed home from the tube. Either my friends have had a particularly unlucky year or something is up. As a result I'm always on my guard now in a way I never used to be. A sense of low level menace I haven't felt on the streets in years, since before CCTV was widespread. And I don't think it's just London. See Taz the other day making a similar point about youths intimidating a village near him up north.

    So even though stats for big ticket items like stabbing and shooting and breaking and entering might be down, no amount of being battered over the head with statistics is going to convince me that things are getting better. It's the low level stuff that changes your experience, your perception, and hence, how you vote.
    I was quite shocked to see that the Tesco Express in the town nearest to me has recently installed the full works of wrap around glass for the check out staff, barriers going in and out, and a permanent security guard...this is in an affluent areas in the country with historically very low levels of any crime.

    The only time you used to see that sort of setup 15 years ago was really rough part of the country in a off licence.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,339
    That Australian Senator who shouted in the Parliament reminded me of one of those Karen's. Her retweeted picture of the King beheaded was quite offensive I thought.
  • Disgusting, Farage should do better and spend more money on bodyguards who dress better.

    A woman who threw a milkshake over Nigel Farage has pleaded guilty to assault by beating.

    Victoria Thomas Bowen, 25, threw the McDonald’s drink over the Reform UK leader outside a pub in Clacton-on-Sea, Essex, during the general election campaign.

    Thomas Bowen, who appeared at Westminster magistrates’ court on Monday, also admitted criminal damage after causing £17.50 worth of damage to a jacket belonging to James Woolfenden, Mr Farage’s security officer.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/21/farage-milkshake-thrower-victoria-thomas-bowen-guilty-plea/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    Mark Cuban says that Elon Musk may be violating gaming laws with his $1 million payout to people who sign his petition in Pennsylvania.
    https://x.com/ArtCandee/status/1848120954985250905

    Like Musk even cares.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,339

    That Australian Senator who shouted in the Parliament reminded me of one of those Karen's. Her retweeted picture of the King beheaded was quite offensive I thought.

    Apologies for the apostrophe.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,339

    Disgusting, Farage should do better and spend more money on bodyguards who dress better.

    A woman who threw a milkshake over Nigel Farage has pleaded guilty to assault by beating.

    Victoria Thomas Bowen, 25, threw the McDonald’s drink over the Reform UK leader outside a pub in Clacton-on-Sea, Essex, during the general election campaign.

    Thomas Bowen, who appeared at Westminster magistrates’ court on Monday, also admitted criminal damage after causing £17.50 worth of damage to a jacket belonging to James Woolfenden, Mr Farage’s security officer.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/21/farage-milkshake-thrower-victoria-thomas-bowen-guilty-plea/

    By beating?
  • TimS said:

    There are big u-shaped tables here with little desk mics and black place markers saying “Royaume Uni”. But photography is annoyingly forbidden.

    I once wasted five minutes in Soho looking for a pub called the Royaume Uni to meet my French friend. Eventually I worked out it was just something her French phone tagged on to the end and I should look a couple of lines higher up.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,257

    Apologies for the apostrophe.
    That Senator does seem to be a bit of a nut.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,786
    edited October 2024

    If he is found guilty, I fear a full downing of weapons from armed response police.
    Finally, an effective vetting process.

    If a jury considers what happened as murder then that's a strong indication that society does not agree with the action taken even in that context. If police officers resign based on that, then we've filtered out a bunch of people whose values or instincts don't align with society as a whole. That can only be a good thing, particularly when guns are involved.

    That's not to say I would agree with a particular verdict.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    Scott_xP said:

    "Always-GOP" is stupid

    "My guy, right or wrong" is stupid

    I am not disputing that there are voters who prefer Republican values, but the guy currently running on the GOP ticket doesn't hold them

    Voting for Trump cos he wears a Red tie is by any and all definitions, stupid.

    What my erstwhile boss would call "fucking retarded"
    I'd be ok with "venal" or "reactionary" or "insular" but I don't think "stupid" is correct for the type of (non MAGA) GOP voter I'm referring to.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,786
    edited October 2024

    Not really. Lots of highly educated people vote Conservative.
    18% of people with a degree, compared with 20% aged over 70 for Labour.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,202
    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1848334715788366087

    #New General election Tracking poll

    🔴 Trump 48% (+1)
    🔵 Harris 47%

    Oct 16 - 🔵 Harris +4

    Tipp #A+ - 1254 LV - 10/20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    This is a more interesting, non partisan analysis of the US urban problems.
    The likelihood of a Trump administration addressing these better than would Harris is, I would argue, considerably slimmer than he is.

    Facing multiple crises, how can cities survive?
    https://thehill.com/future-america/future-of-cities/4934050-cities-crises-climate-finances-housing/
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,401

    Disgusting, Farage should do better and spend more money on bodyguards who dress better.

    A woman who threw a milkshake over Nigel Farage has pleaded guilty to assault by beating.

    Victoria Thomas Bowen, 25, threw the McDonald’s drink over the Reform UK leader outside a pub in Clacton-on-Sea, Essex, during the general election campaign.

    Thomas Bowen, who appeared at Westminster magistrates’ court on Monday, also admitted criminal damage after causing £17.50 worth of damage to a jacket belonging to James Woolfenden, Mr Farage’s security officer.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/21/farage-milkshake-thrower-victoria-thomas-bowen-guilty-plea/

    Suspect the "damage" is the dry cleaning cost. Unless the suit is so cheap as to be machine-washable, of course...
  • Rioter dies in prison after being jailed for two years for violent disorder outside Rotherham hotel
    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/rioter-dies-in-prison-peter-lynch-southport-riots/



    Suicide, apparently. Though judging from the sign he was holding naming Vanguard and Blackrock among other enemies of the people, we can't rule out a hitman from TSE's bank.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    Barnesian said:

    If Kamala loses, it will be because of a combination of racism by whites and sexism by men. A double whammy. Nothing to do with Trump. Racism was tested by Obama and he won. Sexism was tested by H Clinton and she lost.

    Racism and sexism are the unknowns. Apart from that, she has it in the bag.
    I'm sceptical of the betting for reasons we've discussed. I don't think the polling is being grossly distorted by GOP bias. I just think [hope] it is wrong as it was in 2016.
    Gender is a bigger obstacle for her than race imo.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644

    By beating?
    Presumably the cost of dry cleaning.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227
    Leon said:

    Yep. People can literally see stores locking away items that were never locked away before. They can see stores closing DOWN because of shoplifting

    This is their lived experience. No folder full of statistics is gonna persuade them otherwise
    Ugh.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,680

    Rioter dies in prison after being jailed for two years for violent disorder outside Rotherham hotel
    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/rioter-dies-in-prison-peter-lynch-southport-riots/



    Suicide, apparently. Though judging from the sign he was holding naming Vanguard and Blackrock among other enemies of the people, we can't rule out a hitman from TSE's bank.

    Did the global corrupt conspiracy extend to his educators?
  • Rioter dies in prison after being jailed for two years for violent disorder outside Rotherham hotel
    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/rioter-dies-in-prison-peter-lynch-southport-riots/



    Suicide, apparently. Though judging from the sign he was holding naming Vanguard and Blackrock among other enemies of the people, we can't rule out a hitman from TSE's bank.

    My bank isn't listed.

    Though WEF.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644

    Only a week until the annual clocks debate. So looking forward to it all over again.
    I know this is responding to your entirely valid point in entirely the wrong way, but I’m really looking forward to the clocks going back. I’m finding it increasingly difficult to get up in the dark mornings; the first few weeks of November always comes a s a blessed relief. Granted come late November it’ll be just as dark but at least we’ve got a month’s reprise.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921
    Eabhal said:

    Finally, an effective vetting process.

    So you think vetting has never been effective ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    Feeling nostalgic for the days when you were convinced Trump wouldn't be the nominee. Fifteen days to go and you've been worn down to, "A Harris win is still perfectly compatible with where we are."

    Ouch.
    Ah but it'll be nice being proved right in the end. All the better for the rocky path. Like getting the 3 pts with the late late winner.

    Nov 6th. The Big Binary. Elation or Despair?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,680

    Have you ever considered that you're a bit weird?
    If he is, so am I. I more or less absolutely agree with Nick Palmer. In particular about our tendency to look on the dark side when we have a lot going for us.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1848334715788366087

    #New General election Tracking poll

    🔴 Trump 48% (+1)
    🔵 Harris 47%

    Oct 16 - 🔵 Harris +4

    Tipp #A+ - 1254 LV - 10/20

    Their last one had Trump +2.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,786
    edited October 2024
    Taz said:

    So you think vetting has never been effective ?
    Wayne Couzens was a pretty big miss.

    If one of your fellow officers is convicted of murder by a jury and you feel you must resign lest you carry out a murder yourself, that seems like a good outcome for everyone.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 852
    algarkirk said:

    If he is, so am I. I more or less absolutely agree with Nick Palmer. In particular about our tendency to look on the dark side when we have a lot going for us.
    According to YouGov
    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49978-how-britain-voted-in-the-2024-general-election
    less than 20% of degree educated people voted Conservative in '24, vs 40% Labour, 22% of those with household income of 70k+ vs 40% Labour.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773

    Though Downing Street is still fenced off, with armed guards, despite this having originally been a temporary precaution against the IRA.
    Income tax was a temporary precaution against the French.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,982
    edited October 2024
    Eabhal said:

    Wayne Couzens was a pretty big miss.

    If one of your fellow officers is convicted of murder by a jury and you feel you must resign lest you carry out a murder yourself, that seems like a good outcome for everyone.
    He wasn't fire arms officer was he? AFAIK, for the scandal amongst the MET, the firearm officers are never among them. The fact that we can pretty much recall every bad shooting over the course of 20+ years is testament to how that part of the MET seems to work very well.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,787
    For all those who are interested in the hardware aspect of AI

    AI’s Hardware Problem, Asianometry, YouTube, 16 mins. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tmGKTNW8DQ
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    Leon said:

    Yep. People can literally see stores locking away items that were never locked away before. They can see stores closing DOWN because of shoplifting

    This is their lived experience. No folder full of statistics is gonna persuade them otherwise
    "gonna" ... lol.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921
    edited October 2024
    Eabhal said:

    Wayne Couzens was a pretty big miss.

    If one of your fellow officers is convicted of murder by a jury and you feel you must resign lest you carry out a murder yourself, that seems like a good outcome for everyone.
    Couzens was missed by Kent Police in 2012. Nothing to do with the Met Firearms Unit.

    I asked you why you think vetting has never been effective in that part of the Police force ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    I would have guessed higher, but I suppose the free holidays ten years ago wouldn't have been so expensive.
    Yes it could be nearer £5-7m if you take inflation into account
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921

    He wasn't fire arms officer was he? AFAIK, for the scandal amongst the MET, the firearm officers are never among them. The fact that we can pretty much recall every bad shooting over the course of 20+ years is testament to how that part of the MET seems to work very well.
    The armed response unit seems pretty good. I would not blame Police officers deciding the risk is not worth the reward and standing down.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921
    kinabalu said:

    "gonna" ... lol.
    That's the calibre of your response to what is a fair point @Leon makes.

    Dear God.

    Leon is absolutely right here. In my town on a Friday and a Saturday some businesses have to lock their front doors at 5PM and be careful who they allow in given they have had gangs of kids, some with ski masks and balaclavas on causing trouble inside, being abusive to shop owners and customers.

    Now there is minimal crime where I live but crime in the local town is very real, the Police ineffective, and we won't go out there for an evening now.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    Disgusting, Farage should do better and spend more money on bodyguards who dress better.

    A woman who threw a milkshake over Nigel Farage has pleaded guilty to assault by beating.

    Victoria Thomas Bowen, 25, threw the McDonald’s drink over the Reform UK leader outside a pub in Clacton-on-Sea, Essex, during the general election campaign.

    Thomas Bowen, who appeared at Westminster magistrates’ court on Monday, also admitted criminal damage after causing £17.50 worth of damage to a jacket belonging to James Woolfenden, Mr Farage’s security officer.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/21/farage-milkshake-thrower-victoria-thomas-bowen-guilty-plea/

    Dry cleaning?
  • DavidL said:

    Income tax was a temporary precaution against the French.
    The French haven't gone away, you know.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,339
    Cookie said:

    Presumably the cost of dry cleaning.
    With a big stone at the Riverside?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    Taz said:

    That's the calibre of your response to what is a fair point @Leon makes.

    Dear God.

    Leon is absolutely right here. In my town on a Friday and a Saturday some businesses have to lock their front doors at 5PM and be careful who they allow in given they have had gangs of kids, some with ski masks and balaclavas on causing trouble inside, being abusive to shop owners and customers.

    Now there is minimal crime where I live but crime in the local town is very real, the Police ineffective, and we won't go out there for an evening now.
    Do you blame Biden/Harris, too ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    Sean_F said:

    I think your understanding of US politics is deficient.

    To a UK centrist, what US voters should care about is abortion, abortion, abortion.

    But, that's not how US voters see matters.
    Your understanding of UK centrists is equally deficient. What they think US voters should care about the most is that one of the candidates is a demagogue who tried to stay in power after being voted out.
  • trukattrukat Posts: 46
    edited October 2024
    kinabalu said:

    Their last one had Trump +2.
    It is the change from Oct 16 on their tracker. Probably for dramatic effect as that is the Harris high point.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,787
    kinabalu said:

    Their last one had Trump +2.
    TIPP INSIGHTS DAY 8

    https://tippinsights.com/tipp-tracking-poll-day-8-trump-leads-harris-48-47/
  • kinabalu said:

    Their last one had Trump +2.
    Perhaps the Arnold Palmer phallic extravaganza was too homoerotic for the core, and hardened MAGA base ?

    Or perhaps the fieldwork was from before.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    Taz said:

    The armed response unit seems pretty good. I would not blame Police officers deciding the risk is not worth the reward and standing down.
    Wayne Couzens was a firearms officer with the Civil Nuclear Constabulary

    He joined the Met as a firearms officer and then moved to the Parliamentary and Diplomatic Protection unit.

    So vetting failed multiple times - and at multiple levels.
  • Rioter dies in prison after being jailed for two years for violent disorder outside Rotherham hotel
    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/rioter-dies-in-prison-peter-lynch-southport-riots/



    Suicide, apparently. Though judging from the sign he was holding naming Vanguard and Blackrock among other enemies of the people, we can't rule out a hitman from TSE's bank.

    It took me a while to work out what he had against TV medics.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924
    "Ben Wilkinson
    Our fate is in the hands of a chancellor who had her credit card suspended"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/britain-hands-chancellor-credit-card-suspended/
  • kinabalu said:

    Your understanding of UK centrists is equally deficient. What they think US voters should care about the most is that one of the candidates is a demagogue who tried to stay in power after being voted out.
    OK, we all have blind spots... but it's an awfully big one.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921
    Nigelb said:

    Do you blame Biden/Harris, too ?
    Yes, they are totally responsible for delinquent youths in North East England :smiley:

    But Leon's point is perfectly reasonable, wherever it is happening.

    People's lived experience and perception of crime is an issue and certainly some parts of the USA have seen stores closing due to crime.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/26/business/target-retail-theft-store-closures/index.html
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,786
    Taz said:

    Couzens was missed by Kent Police in 2012. Nothing to do with the Met Firearms Unit.

    I asked you why you think vetting has never been effective in that part of the Police force ?
    I didn't suggest that. The problem with a vetting process is that you're never going to catch everyone, but if they self-select then it makes it much easier.

    If a jury finds the officer guilty of murder then you can't swivel out of it. It's common law, so you'd have to do something absurd like legislate to make it legal for police officers to do it.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    Wayne Couzens was a firearms officer with the Civil Nuclear Constabulary

    He joined the Met as a firearms officer and then moved to the Parliamentary and Diplomatic Protection unit.

    So vetting failed multiple times - and at multiple levels.
    I think that's a vetting failure at two places the Civil Nuclear Constabulary, and the Met when he transferred but even that initial transfer was probably a half baked check because he had been previously vetted by another police force..
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227
    Taz said:

    Yes, they are totally responsible for delinquent youths in North East England :smiley:

    But Leon's point is perfectly reasonable, wherever it is happening.

    People's lived experience and perception of crime is an issue and certainly some parts of the USA have seen stores closing due to crime.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/26/business/target-retail-theft-store-closures/index.html
    What is the point of putting 'lived' in front of 'experience'? How would one experience anything if one wasn't alive?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    Taz said:

    That's the calibre of your response to what is a fair point @Leon makes.

    Dear God.

    Leon is absolutely right here. In my town on a Friday and a Saturday some businesses have to lock their front doors at 5PM and be careful who they allow in given they have had gangs of kids, some with ski masks and balaclavas on causing trouble inside, being abusive to shop owners and customers.

    Now there is minimal crime where I live but crime in the local town is very real, the Police ineffective, and we won't go out there for an evening now.
    So you'll be voting for the next far right demagogue you stumble across, will you? No, didn't think so.

    His 'point' is garbage. America is a vast and complex country that has always had (and always will have) big problems. This has never before led to them electing somebody who doesn't respect their democracy and constitution as president. It wouldn't explain it now.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644
    kinabalu said:

    So you'll be voting for the next far right demagogue you stumble across, will you? No, didn't think so.

    His 'point' is garbage. America is a vast and complex country that has always had (and always will have) big problems. This has never before led to them electing somebody who doesn't respect their democracy and constitution as president. It wouldn't explain it now.
    In the past, usually both parties tend to make vaguely positive noises about upholding the rule of law. Since 2020, the Dems have been caught up with the side which wants to abolish the law. Harris (and Biden) might not bear personal responsiblity for this. But the mad west coast cities which have decriminalised shoplifting and the defund the poluice movement have tainted the Dem brand.
    People value democracy. But actually people value safety more.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    What is the point of putting 'lived' in front of 'experience'? How would one experience anything if one wasn't alive?
    Jesus effing Christ, I was mocking lefty terminology. Twit
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773
    Andy_JS said:

    "Ben Wilkinson
    Our fate is in the hands of a chancellor who had her credit card suspended"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/britain-hands-chancellor-credit-card-suspended/

    And thinks we should pay for someone to do her tax return. And can't balance her own books. And...jeez, this is just too depressing.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924
    "Who Is Favored To Win Pennsylvania's 19 Electoral Votes?
    Trump wins 54 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
    Harris wins 46 times out of 100.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    Perhaps the Arnold Palmer phallic extravaganza was too homoerotic for the core, and hardened MAGA base ?

    Or perhaps the fieldwork was from before.
    Ha maybe. But no the sampling is sequential. It's a daily tracker. William was spinning for Trump as per. Don't ask me why. He just does.
  • Cookie said:

    In the past, usually both parties tend to make vaguely positive noises about upholding the rule of law. Since 2020, the Dems have been caught up with the side which wants to abolish the law. Harris (and Biden) might not bear personal responsiblity for this. But the mad west coast cities which have decriminalised shoplifting and the defund the poluice movement have tainted the Dem brand.
    People value democracy. But actually people value safety more.
    Alternatively some may consider the party that is led by a convicted felon who cheerleads rioters and murderers the party outside of law and order.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    eek said:

    I think that's a vetting failure at two places the Civil Nuclear Constabulary, and the Met when he transferred but even that initial transfer was probably a half baked check because he had been previously vetted by another police force..
    If I vetted an employee with a “half-baked” check, because a related bank had checked him a couple of years previously, I would be liable. According to the FSA.

    Kent police failed
    CNC failed
    Met failed
    Parliamentary and Diplomatic Protection failed (among other things, he didn’t do 2 years in the regular Met first)

    He needed to be vetted by all of them. Properly. Someone Else’s Problem is the excuse of the professionally incompetent.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924
    algarkirk said:

    If he is, so am I. I more or less absolutely agree with Nick Palmer. In particular about our tendency to look on the dark side when we have a lot going for us.
    I think this site tends to attract 3 kinds of people: people who are more left-wing than average, people who are more right-wing than average, and election/psephology/statistics anoraks. It has a deficit of swing voters.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    viewcode said:

    TIPP INSIGHTS DAY 8

    https://tippinsights.com/tipp-tracking-poll-day-8-trump-leads-harris-48-47/
    Thank you, viewcode. That's better. Trump lead HALVED in the space of 24 hours.

    You have to watch that Williamglenn.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    trukat said:

    It is the change from Oct 16 on their tracker. Probably for dramatic effect as that is the Harris high point.
    For effect, yes. Exactamundo.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,051
    kinabalu said:

    Your understanding of UK centrists is equally deficient. What they think US voters should care about the most is that one of the candidates is a demagogue who tried to stay in power after being voted out.
    But, if they don't, who cares?

    Your analysis is entirely irrelevant.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,051
    Andy_JS said:

    I think this site tends to attract 3 kinds of people: people who are more left-wing than average, people who are more right-wing than average, and election/psephology/statistics anoraks. It has a deficit of swing voters.
    It's male, older, and a bit aspergy- probably because it's focused on the betting.

    I'd say it's also more socially liberal and republican (small r) than the population at large.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,051
    What happened to France between the wars?

    Never read enough about this. But it seems a very large number of French actively and enthusiastically collaborated with the Germans during WWII, including betraying allied PoWs and generally aiding and abetting their racial policies.

    What caused this?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    But, if they don't, who cares?

    Your analysis is entirely irrelevant.
    Merely correcting Sean's misconception about UK centrists.

    Who cares about WH24? We all do on 2 fronts:

    We want to work out value bets. We want America to elect or avoid electing Trump (depending on our politics and brain chemistry).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    Taz said:

    Yes, they are totally responsible for delinquent youths in North East England :smiley:

    But Leon's point is perfectly reasonable, wherever it is happening.

    People's lived experience and perception of crime is an issue and certainly some parts of the USA have seen stores closing due to crime.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/26/business/target-retail-theft-store-closures/index.html
    Again with the "lived experience".
    Perhaps it is a useful term, after all.

    Anyway, reposting this, which no one seems to have read.
    It's a more sensible analysis of the urban problem in the US, and gives a better idea of how solutions might be thought about.

    Facing multiple crises, how can cities survive?
    https://thehill.com/future-america/future-of-cities/4934050-cities-crises-climate-finances-housing/
  • What happened to France between the wars?

    Never read enough about this. But it seems a very large number of French actively and enthusiastically collaborated with the Germans during WWII, including betraying allied PoWs and generally aiding and abetting their racial policies.

    What caused this?

    The clericalist and rural right.in France never really accepted the Revolution, and some in France were seduced by the idea of a shared Nordic heritage.

    Something similar may have happened in parts of the U.K., part particularly in relation to parts of the country who felt the closest Nordic or Germanic connections.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221
    edited October 2024
    Sounds like a bargain at double the price, this is further proof that society values lawyers.

    Elite lawyers raise fees 40pc to £449 per hour amid ballooning costs

    PwC survey shows firms are increasing number of billable hours amid rebound in deal-making


    Britain’s biggest law firms are charging their clients 40pc more an hour compared to five years ago as they pass on higher costs to customers, a new report has found.

    According to PwC’s annual law firm survey published on Monday, the 10 largest UK-headquartered firms by revenue raised fees to £449 per hour in 2024 – up from £321 in 2019.

    These firms also increased the number of billable hours that all lawyers, from trainee to partner, charged clients amid a rebound in deal-making and an active litigation market.

    The rise in hourly rates has helped the elite group grow fee income by a record 11.6pc and absorb higher inflationary costs by passing them on to clients.

    This includes higher pay for lawyers because of increased competition from US rivals in London, forcing UK law firms to hike salaries to attract and retain talent.

    The talent war has seen Britain’s largest law firms, known as the “magic circle”, raise salaries this year for newly qualified solicitors to £150,000 – up 20pc from the prior year.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/21/elite-lawyers-raise-fees-40pc-amid-ballooning-costs/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    kinabalu said:

    Thank you, viewcode. That's better. Trump lead HALVED in the space of 24 hours.

    You have to watch that Williamglenn.
    Margin of error on that poll is undoubtedly greater than 1%. Probably a lot greater.

    So a 1% change is, essentially, noise.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771
    edited October 2024
    duped
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771

    By beating?
    Should have waited a few months and used eggnog.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,177

    Margin of error on that poll is undoubtedly greater than 1%. Probably a lot greater.

    So a 1% change is, essentially, noise.
    As I've been saying since the Harristeria on here and across the liberal media, Trump had time to recover ground from her - and he seems to have done it.

    PA, WI and MI all feeling, to me, likely to go Red - you heard it here first...!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    Cookie said:

    In the past, usually both parties tend to make vaguely positive noises about upholding the rule of law. Since 2020, the Dems have been caught up with the side which wants to abolish the law. Harris (and Biden) might not bear personal responsiblity for this. But the mad west coast cities which have decriminalised shoplifting and the defund the poluice movement have tainted the Dem brand.
    People value democracy. But actually people value safety more.
    Trump himself probably knows best what is driving his support. That's why he demonises migrants. He's relentless on that. It's the core of his pitch.

    "They are dirty and dangerous and I will protect you from them."

    It's nothing new but he's a skilled practitioner.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924
    Interesting article in UnHerd.

    "In San Francisco, for instance, it’s illegal not to compost your food scraps. But you can smoke meth outside a playground and suffer little more than glares from passersby. In California, college students are required by law to obtain repeated, vocal permission from their partners for a sexual encounter to be deemed not rape. But pimps can openly sex traffic minors on city streets in broad daylight, and the police can do little about it. All of these disparate approaches to perceived social problems are regarded as “progressive”."

    https://unherd.com/2024/10/californias-woes-were-born-in-england/
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921

    Sounds like a bargain at double the price, this is further proof that society values lawyers.

    Elite lawyers raise fees 40pc to £449 per hour amid ballooning costs

    PwC survey shows firms are increasing number of billable hours amid rebound in deal-making


    Britain’s biggest law firms are charging their clients 40pc more an hour compared to five years ago as they pass on higher costs to customers, a new report has found.

    According to PwC’s annual law firm survey published on Monday, the 10 largest UK-headquartered firms by revenue raised fees to £449 per hour in 2024 – up from £321 in 2019.

    These firms also increased the number of billable hours that all lawyers, from trainee to partner, charged clients amid a rebound in deal-making and an active litigation market.

    The rise in hourly rates has helped the elite group grow fee income by a record 11.6pc and absorb higher inflationary costs by passing them on to clients.

    This includes higher pay for lawyers because of increased competition from US rivals in London, forcing UK law firms to hike salaries to attract and retain talent.

    The talent war has seen Britain’s largest law firms, known as the “magic circle”, raise salaries this year for newly qualified solicitors to £150,000 – up 20pc from the prior year.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/21/elite-lawyers-raise-fees-40pc-amid-ballooning-costs/

    Well Rachel Reeves is coming for her share of that now it would appear !!!!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    Margin of error on that poll is undoubtedly greater than 1%. Probably a lot greater.

    So a 1% change is, essentially, noise.
    It is indeed. And we're not short of it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Sounds like a bargain at double the price, this is further proof that society values lawyers.

    Elite lawyers raise fees 40pc to £449 per hour amid ballooning costs

    PwC survey shows firms are increasing number of billable hours amid rebound in deal-making


    Britain’s biggest law firms are charging their clients 40pc more an hour compared to five years ago as they pass on higher costs to customers, a new report has found.

    According to PwC’s annual law firm survey published on Monday, the 10 largest UK-headquartered firms by revenue raised fees to £449 per hour in 2024 – up from £321 in 2019.

    These firms also increased the number of billable hours that all lawyers, from trainee to partner, charged clients amid a rebound in deal-making and an active litigation market.

    The rise in hourly rates has helped the elite group grow fee income by a record 11.6pc and absorb higher inflationary costs by passing them on to clients.

    This includes higher pay for lawyers because of increased competition from US rivals in London, forcing UK law firms to hike salaries to attract and retain talent.

    The talent war has seen Britain’s largest law firms, known as the “magic circle”, raise salaries this year for newly qualified solicitors to £150,000 – up 20pc from the prior year.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/21/elite-lawyers-raise-fees-40pc-amid-ballooning-costs/

    "higher pay for lawyers because of increased competition"

    Mmm. Works that way, does it, when it's not doctors or train drivers?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    Mortimer said:

    As I've been saying since the Harristeria on here and across the liberal media, Trump had time to recover ground from her - and he seems to have done it.

    PA, WI and MI all feeling, to me, likely to go Red - you heard it here first...!
    I feel the opposite.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    kinabalu said:

    Gender is a bigger obstacle for her than race imo.
    Here’s a recent Trump ad.

    Kamala is for “they/them”, not for you.

    https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1847984248092762622
  • Carnyx said:

    "higher pay for lawyers because of increased competition"

    Mmm. Works that way, does it, when it's not doctors or train drivers?
    Private sector always does.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,786
    edited October 2024
    Nigelb said:

    Again with the "lived experience".
    Perhaps it is a useful term, after all.

    Anyway, reposting this, which no one seems to have read.
    It's a more sensible analysis of the urban problem in the US, and gives a better idea of how solutions might be thought about.

    Facing multiple crises, how can cities survive?
    https://thehill.com/future-america/future-of-cities/4934050-cities-crises-climate-finances-housing/
    It's funny how "lived experience" is totally legitimate when it's people complaining about Haitians eating swans or something, but woke lefty nonsense when it's someone who has experienced discrimination or similar.

    I actually think it's a useful phrase, particularly when trying to understand why people vote for Trump or Corbyn etc. For me, it's how irritated people are by cyclists going through red lights when the data is clear about how few do it, and how little danger they pose. You can point at spreadsheets or video analysis as much as you want but people are deeply influenced by their inherent biases and what they can see and hear in person.

    A key element or a "lived experience" is not how it was at the time, but how you look back on it. I've had breakups where I was reasonably calm and resigned at the time, but weeks or even months later it starts to have a dreadful effect on me.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,364
    Leon said:

    Yes it could be nearer £5-7m if you take inflation into account
    Don’t forget that’s a pre-tax number. You’d need to have earned £10-14m to pay for that
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,202
    Sandpit said:

    Here’s a recent Trump ad.

    Kamala is for “they/them”, not for you.

    https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1847984248092762622
    Trump's education policy: "Reading, writing and arithmetic. No transgender."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1848349656738066753
  • Andy_JS said:

    Interesting article in UnHerd.

    "In San Francisco, for instance, it’s illegal not to compost your food scraps. But you can smoke meth outside a playground and suffer little more than glares from passersby. In California, college students are required by law to obtain repeated, vocal permission from their partners for a sexual encounter to be deemed not rape. But pimps can openly sex traffic minors on city streets in broad daylight, and the police can do little about it. All of these disparate approaches to perceived social problems are regarded as “progressive”."

    https://unherd.com/2024/10/californias-woes-were-born-in-england/

    This reminds me of the way in which romantic sex, and eroticism generally, is beginning to disappear from mainstreamn American television altogether, while the country has a vast and brutalised porn culture.

    This is some sort of dangerously hypocritical, ultra-puritan model that we really don' want to be importing here, but we are.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Interesting article in UnHerd.

    "In San Francisco, for instance, it’s illegal not to compost your food scraps. But you can smoke meth outside a playground and suffer little more than glares from passersby. In California, college students are required by law to obtain repeated, vocal permission from their partners for a sexual encounter to be deemed not rape. But pimps can openly sex traffic minors on city streets in broad daylight, and the police can do little about it. All of these disparate approaches to perceived social problems are regarded as “progressive”."

    https://unherd.com/2024/10/californias-woes-were-born-in-england/

    I assume house prices in San Francisco must be dirt cheap given it is apparently so lawless and close to uninhabitable?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    kinabalu said:

    Trump himself probably knows best what is driving his support. That's why he demonises migrants. He's relentless on that. It's the core of his pitch.

    "They are dirty and dangerous and I will protect you from them."

    It's nothing new but he's a skilled practitioner.
    They're considerably less 'dangerous' than the born citizens' population, statistically.

    And his language goes well beyond that. It's not dissimilar to the language used by Radio Télévision Libre des Mille Collines, pre Rwandan genocide.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,680

    Private sector always does.
    Mysteriously this law of supply and demand and scarcity doesn't quite seem to apply to social care workers and people who cut leeks in huge wintry fields.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422
    What do we think she'll get?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd7x17ljpzgo

    A woman who threw a McDonald's milkshake over Reform UK leader Nigel Farage during the general election campaign has pleaded guilty to assault by beating.

    Victoria Thomas Bowen, 25, from Clacton, had previously denied the charge, and will be sentenced at Westminster Magistrates' Court in December.
This discussion has been closed.