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Why Trump is (a bit) like Hamas – politicalbetting.com

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited October 19

    HYUFD said:

    Just partook in a YouGov poll of Tory members.

    One the supplementaties it asked me to define what One Nation Toryism means.

    I feel sorry for the YouGov person who has to read HYUFD's response to that question.

    I also had to say whether which Tory politicians were One Nation Tories or not.

    Does our monarch rule over one nation, or two nations - the rich and the poor?

    Toryism was always at its best when seeing more than one nation, and taking action to make it whole.

    And one of the most perfect examples - probably the very stuff that made you such a vocal Thatcherite, TSE - Lady Thatcher waving away the bleating Oil Companies and Banks in the early eighties recession, to Windfall Tax them so budgets could put financial help into the households of the struggling working classes.
    And along came “cosplay Thatcher” whose very first answer she gave at her PMQ’s - no, we won’t introduce a Windfall Tax. Only Labour put up taxes.

    That suggests she would struggle to explain what One Nation Conservatism is, and how it produced a century and half of electoral dominance.

    She was replaced by a Prime Minister whose idea of assistance programme with energy bills, included giving himself tax payers money to help heat his mansions indoor pool through the crisis.
    Did he ever in his political career see Two Nations - the rich and the poor?

    There’s no reason for for PB Tories to sound so chipper in recent months, laughing at Starmer’s first hundred days. Going into the next election, not only is the electoral arithmetic abysmal for the Conservatives, but the narrative of how badly they lost their way in government will play for a long long time - like the “Winter of Discontent” narrative played at all 80’s and 90’s elections. Yes, easy to skim froth off top Labours majority, but further down, where seats needed for return to government, once lifelong voting Tories lost over “One Nation” and Brexit, likely stay with Lib Dem’s and Labour for the rest of their lives. 😕
    Labour and the Tories are already neck and neck in at least one poll, that is rather complacent. Though yes LD voters may stay LD absent a One Nation Tory leader but Labour voters can certainly swing back blue if they voted for Boris before or go Reform
    A quick return to power is 100% not going to happen HY - this situation is closer to being end of UK Conservatism as we have always known it, than any quick comeback, especially if 1) the party, continuing interest in US style conservatism, drifts further away from understanding UK One Nation Conservatism, and the electability this has always given them with UK voters, and 2) the coming elections settle into a pattern of similar split of right wing votes, between Reform, Tory and LibDem parties. Such a pattern will definitely happen if the Conservative Party continues to vocalise Reform positions, without going all in on Reform policies to address those positions. The Tories can’t adopt Reform policies, because those policies are half baked and ludicrous, and will always be better sold to voters by Farage anyway - but neither do the Tories seem able to stop themselves “sounding” just like Reform, trying to “out Reform” Reform in rhetoric.

    For now, ignore all GE polling that’s five years from the actual vote, think 2010 to 2015 for reason why - what is actually happening right here right now, the Conservative Party is still blowing around in, and disappearing down, a vortex of irrelevance 😟
    Farage cannot get into power without Tory support anymore than the Tories cannot get into power without Farage's support.

    All it means is the next Tory government will likely be one in coalition with Reform given admittedly if many former One Nation Tories stay voting LD a Tory majority remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.

    It is not just the US and UK right heading in a more populist direction anyway, in Canada, Australia, Italy, even Germany the main centre right party is now led by a more populist right leader. While in Italy and Sweden and Spain and the Netherlands and New Zealand and Israel the centre right are in coalition government with the populist right
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just partook in a YouGov poll of Tory members.

    One the supplementaties it asked me to define what One Nation Toryism means.

    I feel sorry for the YouGov person who has to read HYUFD's response to that question.

    I also had to say whether which Tory politicians were One Nation Tories or not.

    Does our monarch rule over one nation, or two nations - the rich and the poor?

    Toryism was always at its best when seeing more than one nation, and taking action to make it whole.

    And one of the most perfect examples - probably the very stuff that made you such a vocal Thatcherite, TSE - Lady Thatcher waving away the bleating Oil Companies and Banks in the early eighties recession, to Windfall Tax them so budgets could put financial help into the households of the struggling working classes.
    And along came “cosplay Thatcher” whose very first answer she gave at her PMQ’s - no, we won’t introduce a Windfall Tax. Only Labour put up taxes.

    That suggests she would struggle to explain what One Nation Conservatism is, and how it produced a century and half of electoral dominance.

    She was replaced by a Prime Minister whose idea of assistance programme with energy bills, included giving himself tax payers money to help heat his mansions indoor pool through the crisis.
    Did he ever in his political career see Two Nations - the rich and the poor?

    There’s no reason for for PB Tories to sound so chipper in recent months, laughing at Starmer’s first hundred days. Going into the next election, not only is the electoral arithmetic abysmal for the Conservatives, but the narrative of how badly they lost their way in government will play for a long long time - like the “Winter of Discontent” narrative played at all 80’s and 90’s elections. Yes, easy to skim froth off top Labours majority, but further down, where seats needed for return to government, once lifelong voting Tories lost over “One Nation” and Brexit, likely stay with Lib Dem’s and Labour for the rest of their lives. 😕
    Labour and the Tories are already neck and neck in at least one poll, that is rather complacent. Though yes LD voters may stay LD absent a One Nation Tory leader but Labour voters can certainly swing back blue if they voted for Boris before or go Reform
    A quick return to power is 100% not going to happen HY - this situation is closer to being end of UK Conservatism as we have always known it, than any quick comeback, especially if 1) the party, continuing interest in US style conservatism, drifts further away from understanding UK One Nation Conservatism, and the electability this has always given them with UK voters, and 2) the coming elections settle into a pattern of similar split of right wing votes, between Reform, Tory and LibDem parties. Such a pattern will definitely happen if the Conservative Party continues to vocalise Reform positions, without going all in on Reform policies to address those positions. The Tories can’t adopt Reform policies, because those policies are half baked and ludicrous, and will always be better sold to voters by Farage anyway - but neither do the Tories seem able to stop themselves “sounding” just like Reform, trying to “out Reform” Reform in rhetoric.

    For now, ignore all GE polling that’s five years from the actual vote, think 2010 to 2015 for reason why - what is actually happening right here right now, the Conservative Party is still blowing around in, and disappearing down, a vortex of irrelevance 😟
    Farage cannot get into power without Tory support anymore than the Tories cannot get into power without Farage's support.

    All it means is the next Tory government will likely be one in coalition with Reform given admittedly if many former One Nation Tories stay voting LD a Tory majority remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.

    It is not just the US and UK right heading in a more populist direction anyway, in Canada, Australia, Italy, even Germany the main centre right party is now led by a more populist right leader. While in Italy and Sweden and Spain and the Netherlands and New Zealand and Israel the centre right are in coalition government with the populist right
    Or in Spain at least the opposition right is a coalition of centre right Popular Party and populist right Vox
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    maxh said:

    “The “Andrew Tate Trump” appeals to young Alpha Males who fear a life treading on eggshells and being bossed around by cat ladies.”

    Is it only Leon among you, who feels this particular appeal of giving Trump power? Are the rest of you all Beta Males?

    PB - the Al Gore of political blogs?

    The voters will never make a Beta Male President.

    It's good to see you back MoonRabbit.

    It is truly remarkable how Tate, Trump and others can persuade men that their insecurities are really their strengths; that a need to actually listen to partners and adapt is a sign of beta weakness, whereas brittle stubbornness is alpha.
    There is something of the teenage crush about the way certain posters seem to relate to the likes of Trump and Musk and think their aura will touch them in some magical way because they're the ones who can identify their genius.


    Here's a less hysterical look.

    https://news.sky.com/video/bruce-springsteen-endorses-kamala-harris-for-us-president-13227644
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,576

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
    Voting in council by-elections is very much a minority pursuit though.
  • Roger said:

    maxh said:

    “The “Andrew Tate Trump” appeals to young Alpha Males who fear a life treading on eggshells and being bossed around by cat ladies.”

    Is it only Leon among you, who feels this particular appeal of giving Trump power? Are the rest of you all Beta Males?

    PB - the Al Gore of political blogs?

    The voters will never make a Beta Male President.

    It's good to see you back MoonRabbit.

    It is truly remarkable how Tate, Trump and others can persuade men that their insecurities are really their strengths; that a need to actually listen to partners and adapt is a sign of beta weakness, whereas brittle stubbornness is alpha.
    There is something of the teenage crush about the way certain posters seem to relate to the likes of Trump and Musk and think their aura will touch them in some magical way because they're the ones who can identify their genius.


    Here's a less hysterical look.

    https://news.sky.com/video/bruce-springsteen-endorses-kamala-harris-for-us-president-13227644
    Born In The USA!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Hardly, it would see the Conservatives gain 30 seats from Labour on a 1.5% swing since the GE with 0 losses to the LDs.

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    That on a poll taken entirely after Badenoch and Jenrick were confirmed as the final 2 left in the Tory leadership race

    Reform would also gain 6 Labour seats and 1 Tory seat, Hornchurch and Upminster

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk
    So still in a worse position than 1997 or 2001.

    And that's after the disappointments and pratfalls of Starmer-in-government.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Roger said:

    maxh said:

    “The “Andrew Tate Trump” appeals to young Alpha Males who fear a life treading on eggshells and being bossed around by cat ladies.”

    Is it only Leon among you, who feels this particular appeal of giving Trump power? Are the rest of you all Beta Males?

    PB - the Al Gore of political blogs?

    The voters will never make a Beta Male President.

    It's good to see you back MoonRabbit.

    It is truly remarkable how Tate, Trump and others can persuade men that their insecurities are really their strengths; that a need to actually listen to partners and adapt is a sign of beta weakness, whereas brittle stubbornness is alpha.
    There is something of the teenage crush about the way certain posters seem to relate to the likes of Trump and Musk and think their aura will touch them in some magical way because they're the ones who can identify their genius.


    Here's a less hysterical look.

    https://news.sky.com/video/bruce-springsteen-endorses-kamala-harris-for-us-president-13227644
    Given that Bruce Springsteen has been a fairly outspoken Democrat for over half a century, it would be surprising if he endorsed anyone else.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Hardly, it would see the Conservatives gain 30 seats from Labour on a 1.5% swing since the GE with 0 losses to the LDs.

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    That on a poll taken entirely after Badenoch and Jenrick were confirmed as the final 2 left in the Tory leadership race

    Reform would also gain 6 Labour seats and 1 Tory seat, Hornchurch and Upminster

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk
    So still in a worse position than 1997 or 2001.

    And that's after the disappointments and pratfalls of Starmer-in-government.
    For now, though I expect Badenoch or Jenrick will do a deal with Farage effectively standing down or putting paper candidates up in seats where Reform were second to Labour in July in return for Reform doing the same where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs.

    Combined the Tories and Reform are on 44% which is miles ahead of where the Tories and UKIP were polling combined in 1997 and 2001
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Hardly, it would see the Conservatives gain 30 seats from Labour on a 1.5% swing since the GE with 0 losses to the LDs.

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    That on a poll taken entirely after Badenoch and Jenrick were confirmed as the final 2 left in the Tory leadership race

    Reform would also gain 6 Labour seats and 1 Tory seat, Hornchurch and Upminster

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk
    It’s five years away 🤷‍♀️ how many polls 2010-2015 showed Ed Milliband and Ed Balls in power?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    edited October 19
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Hardly, it would see the Conservatives gain 30 seats from Labour on a 1.5% swing since the GE with 0 losses to the LDs.

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    That on a poll taken entirely after Badenoch and Jenrick were confirmed as the final 2 left in the Tory leadership race

    Reform would also gain 6 Labour seats and 1 Tory seat, Hornchurch and Upminster

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk
    So still in a worse position than 1997 or 2001.

    And that's after the disappointments and pratfalls of Starmer-in-government.
    For now, though I expect Badenoch or Jenrick will do a deal with Farage effectively standing down or putting paper candidates up in seats where Reform were second to Labour in July in return for Reform doing the same where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs.

    Combined the Tories and Reform are on 44% which is miles ahead of where the Tories and UKIP were polling combined in 1997 and 2001
    You’re not allowing for tactical voting against. There are Conservatives for whom Farage and Reform are anathema, too.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,583

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    It would be surprising if 3 months after the "nobody likes the Tories" election, the Tories were suddenly wildly popular. Particularly when all they're doing is talking to themselves. (This isn't a criticism - it's normal ina leadership election. Though the Conservatives do take a remarkably long time about these things.) It's a long hard slog back to viability for government and it's going to take years, not months.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,583

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Hardly, it would see the Conservatives gain 30 seats from Labour on a 1.5% swing since the GE with 0 losses to the LDs.

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    That on a poll taken entirely after Badenoch and Jenrick were confirmed as the final 2 left in the Tory leadership race

    Reform would also gain 6 Labour seats and 1 Tory seat, Hornchurch and Upminster

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk
    So still in a worse position than 1997 or 2001.

    And that's after the disappointments and pratfalls of Starmer-in-government.
    For now, though I expect Badenoch or Jenrick will do a deal with Farage effectively standing down or putting paper candidates up in seats where Reform were second to Labour in July in return for Reform doing the same where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs.

    Combined the Tories and Reform are on 44% which is miles ahead of where the Tories and UKIP were polling combined in 1997 and 2001
    You’re not allowing for tactical voting against. There are Conservatives for whom Farage and Reform are anathema, too.
    And vice versa.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,182

    Roger said:

    maxh said:

    “The “Andrew Tate Trump” appeals to young Alpha Males who fear a life treading on eggshells and being bossed around by cat ladies.”

    Is it only Leon among you, who feels this particular appeal of giving Trump power? Are the rest of you all Beta Males?

    PB - the Al Gore of political blogs?

    The voters will never make a Beta Male President.

    It's good to see you back MoonRabbit.

    It is truly remarkable how Tate, Trump and others can persuade men that their insecurities are really their strengths; that a need to actually listen to partners and adapt is a sign of beta weakness, whereas brittle stubbornness is alpha.
    There is something of the teenage crush about the way certain posters seem to relate to the likes of Trump and Musk and think their aura will touch them in some magical way because they're the ones who can identify their genius.


    Here's a less hysterical look.

    https://news.sky.com/video/bruce-springsteen-endorses-kamala-harris-for-us-president-13227644
    Given that Bruce Springsteen has been a fairly outspoken Democrat for over half a century, it would be surprising if he endorsed anyone else.
    Unfortunately he's too old to solve their Young White Male problem.

    And Nebraska hasn't voted Dem since 1964.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
    Are those local votes this autumn convincing you the Tories will return to government within the next fifteen years?

    General Elections is leader v leader, chancellor v shadow, manifesto v manifesto, economic policy v economic policy - no local by elections won or lost this month are based on that General Election match up when it comes. And not to ignore the millstone the Conservatives carry into the coming General Elections, how awful they have been in government the last 4 years.

    The actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats the Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold? Whatever the answer to that question is, I can’t see it, so by all means share the answer. 😕
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited October 19

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Hardly, it would see the Conservatives gain 30 seats from Labour on a 1.5% swing since the GE with 0 losses to the LDs.

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    That on a poll taken entirely after Badenoch and Jenrick were confirmed as the final 2 left in the Tory leadership race

    Reform would also gain 6 Labour seats and 1 Tory seat, Hornchurch and Upminster

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk
    So still in a worse position than 1997 or 2001.

    And that's after the disappointments and pratfalls of Starmer-in-government.
    For now, though I expect Badenoch or Jenrick will do a deal with Farage effectively standing down or putting paper candidates up in seats where Reform were second to Labour in July in return for Reform doing the same where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs.

    Combined the Tories and Reform are on 44% which is miles ahead of where the Tories and UKIP were polling combined in 1997 and 2001
    You’re not allowing for tactical voting against. There are Conservatives for whom Farage and Reform are anathema, too.
    Irrelevant given almost all such voters are now voting Labour or LD and the remainder are almost non existent in Reform v Labour marginals where the Tories would put up paper candidates and most of them would still prefer Reform v Labour or at least would vote LD there not Labour
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Roger said:

    maxh said:

    “The “Andrew Tate Trump” appeals to young Alpha Males who fear a life treading on eggshells and being bossed around by cat ladies.”

    Is it only Leon among you, who feels this particular appeal of giving Trump power? Are the rest of you all Beta Males?

    PB - the Al Gore of political blogs?

    The voters will never make a Beta Male President.

    It's good to see you back MoonRabbit.

    It is truly remarkable how Tate, Trump and others can persuade men that their insecurities are really their strengths; that a need to actually listen to partners and adapt is a sign of beta weakness, whereas brittle stubbornness is alpha.
    There is something of the teenage crush about the way certain posters seem to relate to the likes of Trump and Musk and think their aura will touch them in some magical way because they're the ones who can identify their genius.

    Here's a less hysterical look.

    https://news.sky.com/video/bruce-springsteen-endorses-kamala-harris-for-us-president-13227644
    Not called the Boss for nothing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226

    Roger said:

    maxh said:

    “The “Andrew Tate Trump” appeals to young Alpha Males who fear a life treading on eggshells and being bossed around by cat ladies.”

    Is it only Leon among you, who feels this particular appeal of giving Trump power? Are the rest of you all Beta Males?

    PB - the Al Gore of political blogs?

    The voters will never make a Beta Male President.

    It's good to see you back MoonRabbit.

    It is truly remarkable how Tate, Trump and others can persuade men that their insecurities are really their strengths; that a need to actually listen to partners and adapt is a sign of beta weakness, whereas brittle stubbornness is alpha.
    There is something of the teenage crush about the way certain posters seem to relate to the likes of Trump and Musk and think their aura will touch them in some magical way because they're the ones who can identify their genius.


    Here's a less hysterical look.

    https://news.sky.com/video/bruce-springsteen-endorses-kamala-harris-for-us-president-13227644
    Given that Bruce Springsteen has been a fairly outspoken Democrat for over half a century, it would be surprising if he endorsed anyone else.
    Unfortunately he's too old to solve their Young White Male problem.

    And Nebraska hasn't voted Dem since 1964.
    White men haven't voted Dem since 1964 either in the US
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Hardly, it would see the Conservatives gain 30 seats from Labour on a 1.5% swing since the GE with 0 losses to the LDs.

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    That on a poll taken entirely after Badenoch and Jenrick were confirmed as the final 2 left in the Tory leadership race

    Reform would also gain 6 Labour seats and 1 Tory seat, Hornchurch and Upminster

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk
    So still in a worse position than 1997 or 2001.

    And that's after the disappointments and pratfalls of Starmer-in-government.
    For now, though I expect Badenoch or Jenrick will do a deal with Farage effectively standing down or putting paper candidates up in seats where Reform were second to Labour in July in return for Reform doing the same where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs.

    Combined the Tories and Reform are on 44% which is miles ahead of where the Tories and UKIP were polling combined in 1997 and 2001
    You’re not allowing for tactical voting against. There are Conservatives for whom Farage and Reform are anathema, too.
    Irrelevant given almost all such voters are now voting Labour or LD and the remainder are almost non existent in Reform v Labour marginals where the Tories would put up paper candidates and most of them would still prefer Reform v Labour or at least would vote LD there not Labour
    I don’t get this mentality of “our old voters are lost and never coming back so we need to get different ones”. The Labour equivalent would be (actually was) “we don’t want centrist dads and yellow Tories, the conservatives are welcome to them”.

    Both major parties need to win swing voters off the other. They count double. It’s nice picking up some third party votes but I suspect that’s going to get harder, not easier, as time goes on.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 775


    (I remain of view Laying Kemi 1.34/Backing OoopsITriggeredAFilterTheFirstTimeIThinkFace 4 is value)
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
    Are those local votes this autumn convincing you the Tories will return to government within the next fifteen years?

    General Elections is leader v leader, chancellor v shadow, manifesto v manifesto, economic policy v economic policy - no local by elections won or lost this month are based on that General Election match up when it comes. And not to ignore the millstone the Conservatives carry into the coming General Elections, how awful they have been in government the last 4 years.

    The actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats the Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold? Whatever the answer to that question is, I can’t see it, so by all means share the answer. 😕
    Tax cuts, probably.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
    Are those local votes this autumn convincing you the Tories will return to government within the next fifteen years?

    General Elections is leader v leader, chancellor v shadow, manifesto v manifesto, economic policy v economic policy - no local by elections won or lost this month are based on that General Election match up when it comes. And not to ignore the millstone the Conservatives carry into the coming General Elections, how awful they have been in government the last 4 years.

    The actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats the Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold? Whatever the answer to that question is, I can’t see it, so by all means share the answer. 😕
    Tax cuts, probably.
    Not very plausible when the last Tory government significantly put up taxes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    '@BarackObama
    John McCain and I didn’t always agree, but he understood that some values transcended parties. He knew that if we got in the habit of bending the truth to suit political expediency or party orthodoxy, our democracy will not work.

    John McCain had character. That’s what I think about so much these days because it’s so different from what we see out of the Republican nominee.'
    https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1847457386681810944
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,723
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
    Are those local votes this autumn convincing you the Tories will return to government within the next fifteen years?

    General Elections is leader v leader, chancellor v shadow, manifesto v manifesto, economic policy v economic policy - no local by elections won or lost this month are based on that General Election match up when it comes. And not to ignore the millstone the Conservatives carry into the coming General Elections, how awful they have been in government the last 4 years.

    The actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats the Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold? Whatever the answer to that question is, I can’t see it, so by all means share the answer. 😕
    Tax cuts, probably.
    Not very plausible when the last Tory government significantly put up taxes.
    And there's the Liz Truss problem. It will be fairly easy for Labour to argue that any Tory tax cutting plans that aren't copper-bottomed paid for would risk another Truss disaster.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,182
    edited October 19
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    maxh said:

    “The “Andrew Tate Trump” appeals to young Alpha Males who fear a life treading on eggshells and being bossed around by cat ladies.”

    Is it only Leon among you, who feels this particular appeal of giving Trump power? Are the rest of you all Beta Males?

    PB - the Al Gore of political blogs?

    The voters will never make a Beta Male President.

    It's good to see you back MoonRabbit.

    It is truly remarkable how Tate, Trump and others can persuade men that their insecurities are really their strengths; that a need to actually listen to partners and adapt is a sign of beta weakness, whereas brittle stubbornness is alpha.
    There is something of the teenage crush about the way certain posters seem to relate to the likes of Trump and Musk and think their aura will touch them in some magical way because they're the ones who can identify their genius.


    Here's a less hysterical look.

    https://news.sky.com/video/bruce-springsteen-endorses-kamala-harris-for-us-president-13227644
    Given that Bruce Springsteen has been a fairly outspoken Democrat for over half a century, it would be surprising if he endorsed anyone else.
    Unfortunately he's too old to solve their Young White Male problem.

    And Nebraska hasn't voted Dem since 1964.
    White men haven't voted Dem since 1964 either in the US
    Nebraska (1982) is a great album in which the Boss chronicled the existential despair of flyover life. Everyone can see what the problem is, no-one can imagine the solution. In the words of Wiki:

    The songs on Nebraska deal with ordinary, down-on-their-luck blue-collar characters who face a challenge or a turning point in their lives. The songs also address the subject of outsiders, criminals and mass murderers with little or no hope for the future. Unlike previous albums, which often exuded energy, youth, optimism and joy, the vocal tones of Nebraska are solemn and thoughtful, with fleeting moments of grace and redemption woven through the lyrics. The album's reverb-laden vocals and mood combined with dark lyrical content have been described by music critic William Ruhlmann as "one of the most challenging albums ever released by a major star on a major record label".
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    MJW said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
    Are those local votes this autumn convincing you the Tories will return to government within the next fifteen years?

    General Elections is leader v leader, chancellor v shadow, manifesto v manifesto, economic policy v economic policy - no local by elections won or lost this month are based on that General Election match up when it comes. And not to ignore the millstone the Conservatives carry into the coming General Elections, how awful they have been in government the last 4 years.

    The actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats the Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold? Whatever the answer to that question is, I can’t see it, so by all means share the answer. 😕
    Tax cuts, probably.
    Not very plausible when the last Tory government significantly put up taxes.
    And there's the Liz Truss problem. It will be fairly easy for Labour to argue that any Tory tax cutting plans that aren't copper-bottomed paid for would risk another Truss disaster.
    And if they want to copper-bottom pay for them, it requires the converse of what Labour did- they have to pretend to identify the spending they will cut to find the tax reductions. And that's not easy.

    One of the benefits of being in government is that you have quite a bit more wriggle room, as long as the totals sort of add up. Hunt could just cut NI as chancellor; his successor as ShadChanc would have to say "we would fund this through savings on the Education budget by slaughtering the firstborn" or something like that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
    Are those local votes this autumn convincing you the Tories will return to government within the next fifteen years?

    General Elections is leader v leader, chancellor v shadow, manifesto v manifesto, economic policy v economic policy - no local by elections won or lost this month are based on that General Election match up when it comes. And not to ignore the millstone the Conservatives carry into the coming General Elections, how awful they have been in government the last 4 years.

    The actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats the Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold? Whatever the answer to that question is, I can’t see it, so by all means share the answer. 😕
    The LibDems will not hold those 2024 seats in any great numbers. When people get fed up of Labour, they will not say "Oh, let's give the LibDems a go. You never know, they might be better at stopping all the shit we are fed up with Labour about."

    Because they have facilitated that shit. The constituencies getting the worst deal in coming years will be those Labour don't need to win. The Tories will at least have their position as Official Opposition to try to shame Labour into reigning back on their worst vindictive efforts.The LibDems will just have to advise their voters to bend down and grasp their ankles.

    The only advice the LibDems can offer constituensts is "Lube up..."
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    maxh said:

    “The “Andrew Tate Trump” appeals to young Alpha Males who fear a life treading on eggshells and being bossed around by cat ladies.”

    Is it only Leon among you, who feels this particular appeal of giving Trump power? Are the rest of you all Beta Males?

    PB - the Al Gore of political blogs?

    The voters will never make a Beta Male President.

    It's good to see you back MoonRabbit.

    It is truly remarkable how Tate, Trump and others can persuade men that their insecurities are really their strengths; that a need to actually listen to partners and adapt is a sign of beta weakness, whereas brittle stubbornness is alpha.
    There is something of the teenage crush about the way certain posters seem to relate to the likes of Trump and Musk and think their aura will touch them in some magical way because they're the ones who can identify their genius.


    Here's a less hysterical look.

    https://news.sky.com/video/bruce-springsteen-endorses-kamala-harris-for-us-president-13227644
    Given that Bruce Springsteen has been a fairly outspoken Democrat for over half a century, it would be surprising if he endorsed anyone else.
    Unfortunately he's too old to solve their Young White Male problem.

    And Nebraska hasn't voted Dem since 1964.
    White men haven't voted Dem since 1964 either in the US
    Nebraska (1982) is a great album in which the Boss chronicled the existential despair of flyover life. Everyone can see what the problem is, no-one can imagine the solution. In the words of Wiki:

    The songs on Nebraska deal with ordinary, down-on-their-luck blue-collar characters who face a challenge or a turning point in their lives. The songs also address the subject of outsiders, criminals and mass murderers with little or no hope for the future. Unlike previous albums, which often exuded energy, youth, optimism and joy, the vocal tones of Nebraska are solemn and thoughtful, with fleeting moments of grace and redemption woven through the lyrics. The album's reverb-laden vocals and mood combined with dark lyrical content have been described by music critic William Ruhlmann as "one of the most challenging albums ever released by a major star on a major record label".
    It's a very bleak album, but a lot of the imagery is very similar to the rather more commercial The River.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    A $700m award against them seems to have deterred Fox News from repeating lies about the voting machine guys.

    What would it take to deter the richest guy in the world ?

    Dominion is closely monitoring claims around the Nov. 2024 election and strongly encourages use of verified, credible sources of info. We remain fully prepared to defend our company & our customers against lies and those who spread them…
    https://x.com/dominionvoting/status/1847659801737666934
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
    Are those local votes this autumn convincing you the Tories will return to government within the next fifteen years?

    General Elections is leader v leader, chancellor v shadow, manifesto v manifesto, economic policy v economic policy - no local by elections won or lost this month are based on that General Election match up when it comes. And not to ignore the millstone the Conservatives carry into the coming General Elections, how awful they have been in government the last 4 years.

    The actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats the Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold? Whatever the answer to that question is, I can’t see it, so by all means share the answer. 😕
    Tax cuts, probably.
    Not very plausible when the last Tory government significantly put up taxes.
    People have short memories.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,827
    Nigelb said:

    A $700m award against them seems to have deterred Fox News from repeating lies about the voting machine guys.

    What would it take to deter the richest guy in the world ?

    Dominion is closely monitoring claims around the Nov. 2024 election and strongly encourages use of verified, credible sources of info. We remain fully prepared to defend our company & our customers against lies and those who spread them…
    https://x.com/dominionvoting/status/1847659801737666934

    He's all in on the outcome of the election, if his guy wins it won't matter, so who knows what he might try, legal or otherwise?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
    Are those local votes this autumn convincing you the Tories will return to government within the next fifteen years?

    General Elections is leader v leader, chancellor v shadow, manifesto v manifesto, economic policy v economic policy - no local by elections won or lost this month are based on that General Election match up when it comes. And not to ignore the millstone the Conservatives carry into the coming General Elections, how awful they have been in government the last 4 years.

    The actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats the Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold? Whatever the answer to that question is, I can’t see it, so by all means share the answer. 😕
    The LibDems will not hold those 2024 seats in any great numbers. When people get fed up of Labour, they will not say "Oh, let's give the LibDems a go. You never know, they might be better at stopping all the shit we are fed up with Labour about."

    Because they have facilitated that shit. The constituencies getting the worst deal in coming years will be those Labour don't need to win. The Tories will at least have their position as Official Opposition to try to shame Labour into reigning back on their worst vindictive efforts.The LibDems will just have to advise their voters to bend down and grasp their ankles.

    The only advice the LibDems can offer constituensts is "Lube up..."
    It’s encouraging that this is the Tory strategy. Just sit back and let those old seats lost to Lib Dems come home to the natural party of government.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,827
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
    Are those local votes this autumn convincing you the Tories will return to government within the next fifteen years?

    General Elections is leader v leader, chancellor v shadow, manifesto v manifesto, economic policy v economic policy - no local by elections won or lost this month are based on that General Election match up when it comes. And not to ignore the millstone the Conservatives carry into the coming General Elections, how awful they have been in government the last 4 years.

    The actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats the Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold? Whatever the answer to that question is, I can’t see it, so by all means share the answer. 😕
    Tax cuts, probably.
    Not very plausible when the last Tory government significantly put up taxes.
    People have short memories.
    Simultaneously short and long. We'll forget things that happened in the last, say, year, but hold onto other grudges (including political ones) for decades.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,827
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
    Are those local votes this autumn convincing you the Tories will return to government within the next fifteen years?

    General Elections is leader v leader, chancellor v shadow, manifesto v manifesto, economic policy v economic policy - no local by elections won or lost this month are based on that General Election match up when it comes. And not to ignore the millstone the Conservatives carry into the coming General Elections, how awful they have been in government the last 4 years.

    The actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats the Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold? Whatever the answer to that question is, I can’t see it, so by all means share the answer. 😕
    The LibDems will not hold those 2024 seats in any great numbers. When people get fed up of Labour, they will not say "Oh, let's give the LibDems a go. You never know, they might be better at stopping all the shit we are fed up with Labour about."

    Because they have facilitated that shit. The constituencies getting the worst deal in coming years will be those Labour don't need to win. The Tories will at least have their position as Official Opposition to try to shame Labour into reigning back on their worst vindictive efforts.The LibDems will just have to advise their voters to bend down and grasp their ankles.

    The only advice the LibDems can offer constituensts is "Lube up..."
    It’s encouraging that this is the Tory strategy. Just sit back and let those old seats lost to Lib Dems come home to the natural party of government.
    Given the LDs exceeded pretty much all expectations by winning basically every target seat, even if half the seats they took from the Tories were to 'come home' as some Tories expect, they would probably see that as a good result if their voteshare holds up reasonably.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    It's in the bag for Kemi.

    I spoke to my mother earlier. She has backed the winner in every Tory leadership contest that has gone to a members vote. She has voted for Kemi. Because she is an engineer it seems.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
    Are those local votes this autumn convincing you the Tories will return to government within the next fifteen years?

    General Elections is leader v leader, chancellor v shadow, manifesto v manifesto, economic policy v economic policy - no local by elections won or lost this month are based on that General Election match up when it comes. And not to ignore the millstone the Conservatives carry into the coming General Elections, how awful they have been in government the last 4 years.

    The actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats the Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold? Whatever the answer to that question is, I can’t see it, so by all means share the answer. 😕
    The LibDems will not hold those 2024 seats in any great numbers. When people get fed up of Labour, they will not say "Oh, let's give the LibDems a go. You never know, they might be better at stopping all the shit we are fed up with Labour about."

    Because they have facilitated that shit. The constituencies getting the worst deal in coming years will be those Labour don't need to win. The Tories will at least have their position as Official Opposition to try to shame Labour into reigning back on their worst vindictive efforts.The LibDems will just have to advise their voters to bend down and grasp their ankles.

    The only advice the LibDems can offer constituensts is "Lube up..."
    It’s encouraging that this is the Tory strategy. Just sit back and let those old seats lost to Lib Dems come home to the natural party of government.
    Funny thing is that Labour's failure in 2010 didn't hit the Lib Dem number of seats that much. Nor did having that nice Mr Cameron as leader. It took going into coalition to do that.

    It gives me little pleasure to say it, but Lib Dems are bloody hard to shift once they put down roots.

    Still, I'm sure it will be different this time.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,307
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
    Are those local votes this autumn convincing you the Tories will return to government within the next fifteen years?

    General Elections is leader v leader, chancellor v shadow, manifesto v manifesto, economic policy v economic policy - no local by elections won or lost this month are based on that General Election match up when it comes. And not to ignore the millstone the Conservatives carry into the coming General Elections, how awful they have been in government the last 4 years.

    The actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats the Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold? Whatever the answer to that question is, I can’t see it, so by all means share the answer. 😕
    Tax cuts, probably.
    Not very plausible when the last Tory government significantly put up taxes.
    People have short memories.
    Simultaneously short and long. We'll forget things that happened in the last, say, year, but hold onto other grudges (including political ones) for decades.
    There's a cycle of forgetting and remembering. The things that we seem to have forgotten about are often resurrected later as fuel for new grudges.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,827
    edited October 19
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Hardly, it would see the Conservatives gain 30 seats from Labour on a 1.5% swing since the GE with 0 losses to the LDs.

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    That on a poll taken entirely after Badenoch and Jenrick were confirmed as the final 2 left in the Tory leadership race

    Reform would also gain 6 Labour seats and 1 Tory seat, Hornchurch and Upminster

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk
    So still in a worse position than 1997 or 2001.

    And that's after the disappointments and pratfalls of Starmer-in-government.
    For now, though I expect Badenoch or Jenrick will do a deal with Farage effectively standing down or putting paper candidates up in seats where Reform were second to Labour in July in return for Reform doing the same where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs.

    Combined the Tories and Reform are on 44% which is miles ahead of where the Tories and UKIP were polling combined in 1997 and 2001
    You’re not allowing for tactical voting against. There are Conservatives for whom Farage and Reform are anathema, too.
    Irrelevant given almost all such voters are now voting Labour or LD and the remainder are almost non existent in Reform v Labour marginals where the Tories would put up paper candidates and most of them would still prefer Reform v Labour or at least would vote LD there not Labour
    I don’t get this mentality of “our old voters are lost and never coming back so we need to get different ones”. The Labour equivalent would be (actually was) “we don’t want centrist dads and yellow Tories, the conservatives are welcome to them”.
    The mentality is easy to understand as it enables party members to persuade themselves that they can get back into power by doing only the things they already want to do, since clearly even if they tried they could not win back those who have left, so why even bother?

    It's possible, but tricky I should think.

    Edit (Which is not to say they cannot go after one area first, without going for those now Labour/LD now later perhaps, but they may not want to offput the latter too much)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
    Are those local votes this autumn convincing you the Tories will return to government within the next fifteen years?

    General Elections is leader v leader, chancellor v shadow, manifesto v manifesto, economic policy v economic policy - no local by elections won or lost this month are based on that General Election match up when it comes. And not to ignore the millstone the Conservatives carry into the coming General Elections, how awful they have been in government the last 4 years.

    The actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats the Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold? Whatever the answer to that question is, I can’t see it, so by all means share the answer. 😕
    The LibDems will not hold those 2024 seats in any great numbers. When people get fed up of Labour, they will not say "Oh, let's give the LibDems a go. You never know, they might be better at stopping all the shit we are fed up with Labour about."

    Because they have facilitated that shit. The constituencies getting the worst deal in coming years will be those Labour don't need to win. The Tories will at least have their position as Official Opposition to try to shame Labour into reigning back on their worst vindictive efforts.The LibDems will just have to advise their voters to bend down and grasp their ankles.

    The only advice the LibDems can offer constituensts is "Lube up..."
    It’s encouraging that this is the Tory strategy. Just sit back and let those old seats lost to Lib Dems come home to the natural party of government.
    Given the LDs exceeded pretty much all expectations by winning basically every target seat, even if half the seats they took from the Tories were to 'come home' as some Tories expect, they would probably see that as a good result if their voteshare holds up reasonably.
    I don't think the Tories will find it easy to win those seats back. They will be straight LD Tory fights with an obvious choice to voters to keep the Tories out.

    Liberal values and attitudes are now mainstream in the shires. Even Oakham has a pride parade now.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,577
    Foxy said:

    It's in the bag for Kemi.

    I spoke to my mother earlier. She has backed the winner in every Tory leadership contest that has gone to a members vote. She has voted for Kemi. Because she is an engineer it seems.

    "Prometheus has landed!" :)
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    maxh said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    FF43 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    moonshine said:

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.

    b. Racism is popular.
    Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).
    Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.

    Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
    Yep. And win or lose he'll get a big vote on Nov 5th for various reasons. To list a few:

    He's the GOP candidate. Loads of people always vote GOP.
    He's a skilful exploiter of ignorance and resentment.
    He's charismatic and has built a massive energetic loyal cult (MAGA).
    Most Americans don't feel better off despite what the stats say.

    It might be enough. I don't think so but my instincts could be wrong. Soon find out anyway.
    Trump is a warning to democracies everywhere of what you get if mainstream politicians ignore the legitimate concerns of a large segment of the population. Between 2000 and 2015 life was getting worse for a lot of Americans but almost the entire political class ignored it because it suited them to believe that because everything was going quite well for them it must also be going well for everyone else.
    I don't understand this much and casually repeated argument: The good guys are to blame for the bad guys being bad.
    I don’t think it necessarily means that.

    Economic prosperity both in the UK and US became segmented, especially in the last 2-3 decades

    I did very well. Pay rises, lots of work etc.

    At the same time a lot of people saw actual wage decreases. Many services and goods became cheaper as a result. For me and those like me - awesome.

    So carpeting a flat went from £1600 in 1998 to £700 (same flat) in 2019. Yay for me. For the people in the carpet business?

    People like me didn’t sit around a table planning to kick carpet fitters where it hurts. But they got hurt.
    I don't think the stats bear that out. The poorest in society have gotten much richer in say the last 50 years. In the US, median wages basically rise every year yet their politics is pretty extreme.

    The UK has had a period of poor performance over last 20 years, and yet we have returned to the 'centre', with the Lib Dems and Labour both having their best election results in aged.
    That comes of not breaking down stats enough. Have you not noticed the left behind areas in this country?

    The main parties are not popular. And people are wondering what comes next after that.
    Donald Trump is going to get a minimum of 45% of the vote. You talk as if the poorest 10% are swinging it for him.

    He's not drawing support solely from the left behind who do exist, but in any case are generally much better off than they were 20-30 years ago).
    I’m talking about the U.K.

    There are chunks of the population who have seen a decline in living standards. Most of their money going in rent doesn’t help.

    A friend, classic educated, but not credentialed working class, saw successive jobs reduced to minimum wage. In the end, left for Australia.

    Why do you think the two big parties are not popular and Nigel Fucking Farage and his clownshow* are up there?

    On the subject of the US - MAGA is a coalition like any other potential winning group. Try reading some of the reasons the poorer voters are voting his way.

    *Autoincorrect tried to render this as “clown ship”. For some reason I like that.
    Yes, the UK has had stagnation for about 20 years and lots of people haven't gotten much wealthier, completely agree. But the UK hasnt (yet?) voted in Reform (who got about 15% of the vote). The three main parties got about 70% of the vote.

    And the reform voters are largely older people, who actually have seen their economic position protected.
    Your economics-driven theory just doesn't match the results in my view.

    To put it crudely -> US economy doing great, rising median wages etc. -> they have ~50% voting for anti-immigrant, blow up the system candidate.

    UK economy doing terribly, stagnant wages -> they are largely voting for centrist parties.
    I think you make a good challenge RE economic issues not being enough on their own to account for Trump's popularity, but I would make two observations:
    1. Maybe Brexit was our equivalent of voting for Trump for a while? Now it's clear the promised sunny uplands of post-Brexit UK were a mirage, those disgruntled with the current system might start to look elsewhere.
    2. Your (yet?) is, I think, key. If Labour underperform in this parliament, can you really see a Jenrick- or Badenoch-led Tory party sweeping back into power one term after the utter clown show of the recent Tory government? And if not the Tories back, what flavour of government will we get? I'll wager neither you nor I will like it much.
    I agree with point 2. I didn't vote for Brexit, but I think it's perfectly reasonable to believe the UK is better off out of the EU. To my mind its nothing like as extreme as voting for Trump.

    Nevertheless, the Brexit vote did not break down economic lines especially. Plenty of poorer people were pro, plenty were against. Brexit was predominantly a cultural vote imo, similarly I think Trump.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,872
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's a good header.

    The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.

    It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.

    But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.

    The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.

    The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.

    Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.

    Switzerland and Singapore are relatively small financial services dominated tax havens effectively and Norway has masses of oil for its small size, they are unique circumstances
    Manufacturing output per person:

    Singapore - $53,548
    Switzerland - $18,081
    UK - $4,075

    So... ummm... about those countries being dominated by financial services? Would you like to reconsider?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,827
    And on the lighter side of trying but probably failing to win people over about something, spare a thought for poor Jeff Bezos

    https://nitter.poast.org/MorgothsReview/status/1847623302363185412#m
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
    Are those local votes this autumn convincing you the Tories will return to government within the next fifteen years?

    General Elections is leader v leader, chancellor v shadow, manifesto v manifesto, economic policy v economic policy - no local by elections won or lost this month are based on that General Election match up when it comes. And not to ignore the millstone the Conservatives carry into the coming General Elections, how awful they have been in government the last 4 years.

    The actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats the Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold? Whatever the answer to that question is, I can’t see it, so by all means share the answer. 😕
    The LibDems will not hold those 2024 seats in any great numbers. When people get fed up of Labour, they will not say "Oh, let's give the LibDems a go. You never know, they might be better at stopping all the shit we are fed up with Labour about."

    Because they have facilitated that shit. The constituencies getting the worst deal in coming years will be those Labour don't need to win. The Tories will at least have their position as Official Opposition to try to shame Labour into reigning back on their worst vindictive efforts.The LibDems will just have to advise their voters to bend down and grasp their ankles.

    The only advice the LibDems can offer constituensts is "Lube up..."
    It’s encouraging that this is the Tory strategy. Just sit back and let those old seats lost to Lib Dems come home to the natural party of government.
    Given the LDs exceeded pretty much all expectations by winning basically every target seat, even if half the seats they took from the Tories were to 'come home' as some Tories expect, they would probably see that as a good result if their voteshare holds up reasonably.
    I don't think the Tories will find it easy to win those seats back. They will be straight LD Tory fights with an obvious choice to voters to keep the Tories out.

    Liberal values and attitudes are now mainstream in the shires. Even Oakham has a pride parade now.
    Keeping the Tories out will keep Labour in.

    Given the start Labour has made, keeping them in may be a very unwelcome outcome.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    'Robert Jenrick has promised to tear up the Climate Change Act if he becomes Tory leader and eventually prime minister.

    He has said he will scrap major pieces of Blair and Brown era legislation including the Climate Change Act, Equality Act and Human Rights Act under a “Great Reform Act” if he makes it to No 10.

    His plans include scrapping carbon budgets and unburdening businesses of equality laws which have been criticised for driving positive discrimination and political correctness in the workplace.

    He described carbon budgets as “Soviet-style five-year plans” and claimed they impede the building of critical national infrastructure projects.

    He would also take aim at the public sector equality duty in the Equality Act and section 6 of the Human Rights Act, which gives the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) force in British law.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/19/jenrick-pledge-scrap-climate-change-act-if-tory-leader/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,788

    Foxy said:

    It's in the bag for Kemi.

    I spoke to my mother earlier. She has backed the winner in every Tory leadership contest that has gone to a members vote. She has voted for Kemi. Because she is an engineer it seems.

    "Prometheus has landed!" :)
    Pause

    Pause

    DaFuq????
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,872
    edited October 19

    Trump has cancelled his NRA love-in - to go to a Latino event.

    In Florida.

    Word is the Republicans are worried the anti-Haitian comments are playing VERY badly there. And there are 500,000 Haitians in the state - the largest concentration in the whole US.

    Be so funny if "They are eating the dogs. They are eating the cats..." cost him Florida - and its 30 EC votes. Damn near the same as Arizona, Minnesota and Wisconsin with their 31 combined.

    In Florida, the Republican legislature passed a near total abortion ban. Legal abortion is popular in Florida. The result is that the State is highly likely to pass a constitutional amendement that will massively relax abortion access.

    It is also highly likely to get young women voters to the polls. And there is no group less likely than young women voters to vote Democrat.

    Personally, I think Trump hangs on in Florida. But it's far from impossible that Scott (who only leads Mucarsel-Powell by two points according to polls from Marist and Redfield & Wilton) loses.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,827
    HYUFD said:

    'Robert Jenrick has promised to tear up the Climate Change Act if he becomes Tory leader and eventually prime minister.

    He has said he will scrap major pieces of Blair and Brown era legislation including the Climate Change Act, Equality Act and Human Rights Act under a “Great Reform Act” if he makes it to No 10.

    His plans include scrapping carbon budgets and unburdening businesses of equality laws which have been criticised for driving positive discrimination and political correctness in the workplace.

    He described carbon budgets as “Soviet-style five-year plans” and claimed they impede the building of critical national infrastructure projects.

    He would also take aim at the public sector equality duty in the Equality Act and section 6 of the Human Rights Act, which gives the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) force in British law.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/19/jenrick-pledge-scrap-climate-change-act-if-tory-leader/

    Shouldn't it be Great Repeal Act if he's just going to scrap them?

    I do think there's plenty of burdensomely vague 'duties' that could be improved.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,872
    kle4 said:

    And on the lighter side of trying but probably failing to win people over about something, spare a thought for poor Jeff Bezos

    https://nitter.poast.org/MorgothsReview/status/1847623302363185412#m

    Amazon also owns Clarkson's Farm, so I doubt Bezos is crying that hard.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,827
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    And on the lighter side of trying but probably failing to win people over about something, spare a thought for poor Jeff Bezos

    https://nitter.poast.org/MorgothsReview/status/1847623302363185412#m

    Amazon also owns Clarkson's Farm, so I doubt Bezos is crying that hard.
    Sure, but succeeding on that probably doesn't make up for the costs on the other, if it does not achieve the reach or acclaim desired from a billion dollar purchase.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,307
    Michigan has more registered voters than people eligible to vote.

    https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/michigan-voter-rolls-inflated-500k-state-says-its-no-issue-gop-disagrees

    Three weeks from an election in which the state will likely play a prominent and potentially deciding role, Michigan has one of the most bloated voter rolls in the nation.

    The state currently has 8.4 million registered voters, according to the latest records obtained by Bridge Michigan, nearly 500,000 more than the number of people in the state who are old enough to vote.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    HYUFD said:

    'Robert Jenrick has promised to tear up the Climate Change Act if he becomes Tory leader and eventually prime minister.

    He has said he will scrap major pieces of Blair and Brown era legislation including the Climate Change Act, Equality Act and Human Rights Act under a “Great Reform Act” if he makes it to No 10.

    His plans include scrapping carbon budgets and unburdening businesses of equality laws which have been criticised for driving positive discrimination and political correctness in the workplace.

    He described carbon budgets as “Soviet-style five-year plans” and claimed they impede the building of critical national infrastructure projects.

    He would also take aim at the public sector equality duty in the Equality Act and section 6 of the Human Rights Act, which gives the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) force in British law.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/19/jenrick-pledge-scrap-climate-change-act-if-tory-leader/

    Nope. My mum has voted Kemi, so Jenrick will be back to obscurity after his 15 minutes of fame.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,827
    Easily adaptable headline for many places?

    Russian cash-for-votes flows into Moldova as nation heads to polls

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c23kdjxxx1jo

    They presumably count themselves fortunate they do not share a border with Russia (well, apart from Transnistria, but it's at least harder to mass for full scale invasion from there.Hopefully).

    Voters will also get to cast their ballot in a referendum on whether to enshrine Moldova’s goal of EU accession in the constitution. In fact, membership talks have already begun but the country has been in a battle over its political direction for decades, ever since Moldova gained independence from Moscow as the Soviet Union fell apart.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,788
    HYUFD said:

    'Robert Jenrick has promised to tear up the Climate Change Act if he becomes Tory leader and eventually prime minister.

    He has said he will scrap major pieces of Blair and Brown era legislation including the Climate Change Act, Equality Act and Human Rights Act under a “Great Reform Act” if he makes it to No 10.

    His plans include scrapping carbon budgets and unburdening businesses of equality laws which have been criticised for driving positive discrimination and political correctness in the workplace.

    He described carbon budgets as “Soviet-style five-year plans” and claimed they impede the building of critical national infrastructure projects.

    He would also take aim at the public sector equality duty in the Equality Act and section 6 of the Human Rights Act, which gives the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) force in British law.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/19/jenrick-pledge-scrap-climate-change-act-if-tory-leader/

    I named those three acts in my Blob article https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/09/28/the-blob/

    (although it would have been more accurate to name the permanent entities they create)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,827

    Michigan has more registered voters than people eligible to vote.

    https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/michigan-voter-rolls-inflated-500k-state-says-its-no-issue-gop-disagrees

    Three weeks from an election in which the state will likely play a prominent and potentially deciding role, Michigan has one of the most bloated voter rolls in the nation.

    The state currently has 8.4 million registered voters, according to the latest records obtained by Bridge Michigan, nearly 500,000 more than the number of people in the state who are old enough to vote.

    I'm sure this bit isn't true - later in the story it's as good as suggested whilst pretending it isn't.

    While critics say the inflated rolls are not ideal, no one is suggesting they have contributed to fraud.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's a good header.

    The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.

    It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.

    But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.

    The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.

    The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.

    Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.

    Switzerland and Singapore are relatively small financial services dominated tax havens effectively and Norway has masses of oil for its small size, they are unique circumstances
    Manufacturing output per person:

    Singapore - $53,548
    Switzerland - $18,081
    UK - $4,075

    So... ummm... about those countries being dominated by financial services? Would you like to reconsider?
    'The total value of UK manufacturers' product sales was £456.1 billion in 2023, Singapore manufacturing output for 2022 was $95.70B,'
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/manufacturingandproductionindustry#:~:text=The total value of UK,total manufacturers' sales in 2023.
    https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/SGP/singapore/manufacturing-output#:~:text=Data are in current U.S.,a 27.99% increase from 2020.

    You are not going to make Stoke, ex industrial Northern France or Ohio or Michigan into Singapore, for starters as it is a city state
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
    Are those local votes this autumn convincing you the Tories will return to government within the next fifteen years?

    General Elections is leader v leader, chancellor v shadow, manifesto v manifesto, economic policy v economic policy - no local by elections won or lost this month are based on that General Election match up when it comes. And not to ignore the millstone the Conservatives carry into the coming General Elections, how awful they have been in government the last 4 years.

    The actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats the Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold? Whatever the answer to that question is, I can’t see it, so by all means share the answer. 😕
    The LibDems will not hold those 2024 seats in any great numbers. When people get fed up of Labour, they will not say "Oh, let's give the LibDems a go. You never know, they might be better at stopping all the shit we are fed up with Labour about."

    Because they have facilitated that shit. The constituencies getting the worst deal in coming years will be those Labour don't need to win. The Tories will at least have their position as Official Opposition to try to shame Labour into reigning back on their worst vindictive efforts.The LibDems will just have to advise their voters to bend down and grasp their ankles.

    The only advice the LibDems can offer constituensts is "Lube up..."
    It’s encouraging that this is the Tory strategy. Just sit back and let those old seats lost to Lib Dems come home to the natural party of government.
    Given the LDs exceeded pretty much all expectations by winning basically every target seat, even if half the seats they took from the Tories were to 'come home' as some Tories expect, they would probably see that as a good result if their voteshare holds up reasonably.
    I don't think the Tories will find it easy to win those seats back. They will be straight LD Tory fights with an obvious choice to voters to keep the Tories out.

    Liberal values and attitudes are now mainstream in the shires. Even Oakham has a pride parade now.
    For now, at the moment the likeliest outcome of the next general election may well be a Labour and LD coalition government.

    If so, the Tories can start to portray the LDs as Labour's tax rising little helpers in the home counties
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 426
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's a good header.

    The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.

    It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.

    But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.

    The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.

    The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.

    Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.

    Switzerland and Singapore are relatively small financial services dominated tax havens effectively and Norway has masses of oil for its small size, they are unique circumstances
    Manufacturing output per person:

    Singapore - $53,548
    Switzerland - $18,081
    UK - $4,075

    So... ummm... about those countries being dominated by financial services? Would you like to reconsider?
    Does Singapore count all the people involved in that production or just citizens?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Trump has cancelled his NRA love-in - to go to a Latino event.

    In Florida.

    Word is the Republicans are worried the anti-Haitian comments are playing VERY badly there. And there are 500,000 Haitians in the state - the largest concentration in the whole US.

    Be so funny if "They are eating the dogs. They are eating the cats..." cost him Florida - and its 30 EC votes. Damn near the same as Arizona, Minnesota and Wisconsin with their 31 combined.

    In Florida, the Republican legislature passed a near total abortion ban. Legal abortion is popular in Florida. The result is that the State is highly likely to pass a constitutional amendement that will massively relax abortion access.

    It is also highly likely to get young women voters to the polls. And there is no group less likely than young women voters to vote Democrat.

    Personally, I think Trump hangs on in Florida. But it's far from impossible that Scott (who only leads Mucarsel-Powell by two points according to polls from Marist and Redfield & Wilton) loses.

    There is also the matter of the hurricanes
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited October 19
    rkrkrk said:

    maxh said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    FF43 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    moonshine said:

    Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.

    We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.

    So, why?

    a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.

    b. Racism is popular.
    Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).
    Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.

    Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
    Yep. And win or lose he'll get a big vote on Nov 5th for various reasons. To list a few:

    He's the GOP candidate. Loads of people always vote GOP.
    He's a skilful exploiter of ignorance and resentment.
    He's charismatic and has built a massive energetic loyal cult (MAGA).
    Most Americans don't feel better off despite what the stats say.

    It might be enough. I don't think so but my instincts could be wrong. Soon find out anyway.
    Trump is a warning to democracies everywhere of what you get if mainstream politicians ignore the legitimate concerns of a large segment of the population. Between 2000 and 2015 life was getting worse for a lot of Americans but almost the entire political class ignored it because it suited them to believe that because everything was going quite well for them it must also be going well for everyone else.
    I don't understand this much and casually repeated argument: The good guys are to blame for the bad guys being bad.
    I don’t think it necessarily means that.

    Economic prosperity both in the UK and US became segmented, especially in the last 2-3 decades

    I did very well. Pay rises, lots of work etc.

    At the same time a lot of people saw actual wage decreases. Many services and goods became cheaper as a result. For me and those like me - awesome.

    So carpeting a flat went from £1600 in 1998 to £700 (same flat) in 2019. Yay for me. For the people in the carpet business?

    People like me didn’t sit around a table planning to kick carpet fitters where it hurts. But they got hurt.
    I don't think the stats bear that out. The poorest in society have gotten much richer in say the last 50 years. In the US, median wages basically rise every year yet their politics is pretty extreme.

    The UK has had a period of poor performance over last 20 years, and yet we have returned to the 'centre', with the Lib Dems and Labour both having their best election results in aged.
    That comes of not breaking down stats enough. Have you not noticed the left behind areas in this country?

    The main parties are not popular. And people are wondering what comes next after that.
    Donald Trump is going to get a minimum of 45% of the vote. You talk as if the poorest 10% are swinging it for him.

    He's not drawing support solely from the left behind who do exist, but in any case are generally much better off than they were 20-30 years ago).
    I’m talking about the U.K.

    There are chunks of the population who have seen a decline in living standards. Most of their money going in rent doesn’t help.

    A friend, classic educated, but not credentialed working class, saw successive jobs reduced to minimum wage. In the end, left for Australia.

    Why do you think the two big parties are not popular and Nigel Fucking Farage and his clownshow* are up there?

    On the subject of the US - MAGA is a coalition like any other potential winning group. Try reading some of the reasons the poorer voters are voting his way.

    *Autoincorrect tried to render this as “clown ship”. For some reason I like that.
    Yes, the UK has had stagnation for about 20 years and lots of people haven't gotten much wealthier, completely agree. But the UK hasnt (yet?) voted in Reform (who got about 15% of the vote). The three main parties got about 70% of the vote.

    And the reform voters are largely older people, who actually have seen their economic position protected.
    Your economics-driven theory just doesn't match the results in my view.

    To put it crudely -> US economy doing great, rising median wages etc. -> they have ~50% voting for anti-immigrant, blow up the system candidate.

    UK economy doing terribly, stagnant wages -> they are largely voting for centrist parties.
    I think you make a good challenge RE economic issues not being enough on their own to account for Trump's popularity, but I would make two observations:
    1. Maybe Brexit was our equivalent of voting for Trump for a while? Now it's clear the promised sunny uplands of post-Brexit UK were a mirage, those disgruntled with the current system might start to look elsewhere.
    2. Your (yet?) is, I think, key. If Labour underperform in this parliament, can you really see a Jenrick- or Badenoch-led Tory party sweeping back into power one term after the utter clown show of the recent Tory government? And if not the Tories back, what flavour of government will we get? I'll wager neither you nor I will like it much.
    I agree with point 2. I didn't vote for Brexit, but I think it's perfectly reasonable to believe the UK is better off out of the EU. To my mind its nothing like as extreme as voting for Trump.

    Nevertheless, the Brexit vote did not break down economic lines especially. Plenty of poorer people were pro, plenty were against. Brexit was predominantly a cultural vote imo, similarly I think Trump.
    Most of the poorest areas of the UK voted for Brexit, most of the richest areas voted Remain.

    In the US too most of the wealthiest zip codes voted for Biden in 2020 and Trump won the poor white working class and even more the middle income white vote, just the poor African American and Hispanic vote voted even more for Hillary and Biden making the poor overall still democrat.

    That was a big contrast from 2010, 2012 and 2015 when the highest earners in the US and UK voted for Cameron and Romney and the wealthiest areas of Britain voted Tory while the poor voted for Ed Miliband and Obama
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    The logical conclusion of Citizens United ?

    I don't think people realize the extent to which Elon Musk has taken over the entire election. Journalists have not caught up yet. Seemingly the ENTIRE field AND advertising operation of the GOP across many races and states is currently Musk-funded.
    https://x.com/whstancil/status/1847357647093108743
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,955
    Some of you may want to chime in with suggestions for the Loser's playlist. https://patterico.com/2024/10/18/weekend-open-thread-248/#comment-2820362

    (Either here, or there.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,872
    Dopermean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's a good header.

    The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.

    It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.

    But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.

    The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.

    The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.

    Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.

    Switzerland and Singapore are relatively small financial services dominated tax havens effectively and Norway has masses of oil for its small size, they are unique circumstances
    Manufacturing output per person:

    Singapore - $53,548
    Switzerland - $18,081
    UK - $4,075

    So... ummm... about those countries being dominated by financial services? Would you like to reconsider?
    Does Singapore count all the people involved in that production or just citizens?
    It's divided by total population, not just citizens.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,390
    rcs1000 said:

    Trump has cancelled his NRA love-in - to go to a Latino event.

    In Florida.

    Word is the Republicans are worried the anti-Haitian comments are playing VERY badly there. And there are 500,000 Haitians in the state - the largest concentration in the whole US.

    Be so funny if "They are eating the dogs. They are eating the cats..." cost him Florida - and its 30 EC votes. Damn near the same as Arizona, Minnesota and Wisconsin with their 31 combined.

    In Florida, the Republican legislature passed a near total abortion ban. Legal abortion is popular in Florida. The result is that the State is highly likely to pass a constitutional amendement that will massively relax abortion access.

    It is also highly likely to get young women voters to the polls. And there is no group less likely than young women voters to vote Democrat.

    Personally, I think Trump hangs on in Florida. But it's far from impossible that Scott (who only leads Mucarsel-Powell by two points according to polls from Marist and Redfield & Wilton) loses.

    I will die laughing and also hopelessly deliriously drunk if he loses Florida.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's a good header.

    The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.

    It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.

    But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.

    The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.

    The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.

    Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.

    Switzerland and Singapore are relatively small financial services dominated tax havens effectively and Norway has masses of oil for its small size, they are unique circumstances
    Manufacturing output per person:

    Singapore - $53,548
    Switzerland - $18,081
    UK - $4,075

    So... ummm... about those countries being dominated by financial services? Would you like to reconsider?
    Indeed. Though the appropriate comparator to Singapore here would be London, which I expect has a higher manufacturing output per person than the UK (but lower than Singapore, or Ireland).

    Singapore has essentially tied up the entire AsPac headquarters market. With Hong Kong no longer favoured thanks to CCP control there are no real competitors. It is without peer. Same as Dubai for MENA (which is admittedly a tiny regional market by comparison). Much of its business is nothing to do with FS, its supply chain, trading, regional HQs and holding companies, quite a lot of hi tech manufacturing thanks to the pioneer company tax incentive which lasted decades until the recent global minimum tax.

    Contrast with Europe where Switzerland competes head on for regional HQ and IP dollars with Ireland, the UK, Netherlands, France, Belgium and Germany.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Robert Jenrick has promised to tear up the Climate Change Act if he becomes Tory leader and eventually prime minister.

    He has said he will scrap major pieces of Blair and Brown era legislation including the Climate Change Act, Equality Act and Human Rights Act under a “Great Reform Act” if he makes it to No 10.

    His plans include scrapping carbon budgets and unburdening businesses of equality laws which have been criticised for driving positive discrimination and political correctness in the workplace.

    He described carbon budgets as “Soviet-style five-year plans” and claimed they impede the building of critical national infrastructure projects.

    He would also take aim at the public sector equality duty in the Equality Act and section 6 of the Human Rights Act, which gives the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) force in British law.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/19/jenrick-pledge-scrap-climate-change-act-if-tory-leader/

    I named those three acts in my Blob article https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/09/28/the-blob/

    (although it would have been more accurate to name the permanent entities they create)
    I like the bit that says "Of course the blob exists".
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,390
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Robert Jenrick has promised to tear up the Climate Change Act if he becomes Tory leader and eventually prime minister.

    He has said he will scrap major pieces of Blair and Brown era legislation including the Climate Change Act, Equality Act and Human Rights Act under a “Great Reform Act” if he makes it to No 10.

    His plans include scrapping carbon budgets and unburdening businesses of equality laws which have been criticised for driving positive discrimination and political correctness in the workplace.

    He described carbon budgets as “Soviet-style five-year plans” and claimed they impede the building of critical national infrastructure projects.

    He would also take aim at the public sector equality duty in the Equality Act and section 6 of the Human Rights Act, which gives the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) force in British law.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/19/jenrick-pledge-scrap-climate-change-act-if-tory-leader/

    Nope. My mum has voted Kemi, so Jenrick will be back to obscurity after his 15 minutes of fame.
    Jenrick is sounding a bit desperate now.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,706

    Michigan has more registered voters than people eligible to vote.

    https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/michigan-voter-rolls-inflated-500k-state-says-its-no-issue-gop-disagrees

    Three weeks from an election in which the state will likely play a prominent and potentially deciding role, Michigan has one of the most bloated voter rolls in the nation.

    The state currently has 8.4 million registered voters, according to the latest records obtained by Bridge Michigan, nearly 500,000 more than the number of people in the state who are old enough to vote.

    Nice, they automatically register you when you get a driving license.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
    Are those local votes this autumn convincing you the Tories will return to government within the next fifteen years?

    General Elections is leader v leader, chancellor v shadow, manifesto v manifesto, economic policy v economic policy - no local by elections won or lost this month are based on that General Election match up when it comes. And not to ignore the millstone the Conservatives carry into the coming General Elections, how awful they have been in government the last 4 years.

    The actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats the Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold? Whatever the answer to that question is, I can’t see it, so by all means share the answer. 😕
    The LibDems will not hold those 2024 seats in any great numbers. When people get fed up of Labour, they will not say "Oh, let's give the LibDems a go. You never know, they might be better at stopping all the shit we are fed up with Labour about."

    Because they have facilitated that shit. The constituencies getting the worst deal in coming years will be those Labour don't need to win. The Tories will at least have their position as Official Opposition to try to shame Labour into reigning back on their worst vindictive efforts.The LibDems will just have to advise their voters to bend down and grasp their ankles.

    The only advice the LibDems can offer constituensts is "Lube up..."
    It’s encouraging that this is the Tory strategy. Just sit back and let those old seats lost to Lib Dems come home to the natural party of government.
    Given the LDs exceeded pretty much all expectations by winning basically every target seat, even if half the seats they took from the Tories were to 'come home' as some Tories expect, they would probably see that as a good result if their voteshare holds up reasonably.
    I don't think the Tories will find it easy to win those seats back. They will be straight LD Tory fights with an obvious choice to voters to keep the Tories out.

    Liberal values and attitudes are now mainstream in the shires. Even Oakham has a pride parade now.
    For now, at the moment the likeliest outcome of the next general election may well be a Labour and LD coalition government.

    If so, the Tories can start to portray the LDs as Labour's tax rising little helpers in the home counties
    Nothing to do with us guv. We LDs are on the opposition benches 😀
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's a good header.

    The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.

    It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.

    But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.

    The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.

    The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.

    Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.

    Switzerland and Singapore are relatively small financial services dominated tax havens effectively and Norway has masses of oil for its small size, they are unique circumstances
    Manufacturing output per person:

    Singapore - $53,548
    Switzerland - $18,081
    UK - $4,075

    So... ummm... about those countries being dominated by financial services? Would you like to reconsider?
    'The total value of UK manufacturers' product sales was £456.1 billion in 2023, Singapore manufacturing output for 2022 was $95.70B,'
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/manufacturingandproductionindustry#:~:text=The total value of UK,total manufacturers' sales in 2023.
    https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/SGP/singapore/manufacturing-output#:~:text=Data are in current U.S.,a 27.99% increase from 2020.

    You are not going to make Stoke, ex industrial Northern France or Ohio or Michigan into Singapore, for starters as it is a city state
    Isn't Bet365 the main employer in Stoke?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,390
    @leon could have waited for the NHS!!


    George Mann
    @sgfmann

    The Sunday Telegraph: Millions to be given NHS smart
    watches

    #TomorrowsPapersToday
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 775
    edited October 19
    Foxy said:

    It's in the bag for Kemi.

    I spoke to my mother earlier. She has backed the winner in every Tory leadership contest that has gone to a members vote. She has voted for Kemi. Because she is an engineer it seems.

    The leaflets that came through the post... it literally said that as her pitch. Was pretty amusing. Basically said very little about agenda.

    Meanwhile Bastard had a bunch of obviously silly "red meat" to the nasty kind of tory.

    I can photograph them if you're interested but honestly they're not... interesting. I also found the letter sent with them a bit bizarre, it was going on about immigration too. FFS.

    I hope your mum is an effective bellwether but I'm still skeptical that the evidence justifies these prices. Ideally I want to trade out at about 60/40 implied probabilities and then have Kemi win.

    Doesn't matter that much when neither likely to be PM I guess.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
    Are those local votes this autumn convincing you the Tories will return to government within the next fifteen years?

    General Elections is leader v leader, chancellor v shadow, manifesto v manifesto, economic policy v economic policy - no local by elections won or lost this month are based on that General Election match up when it comes. And not to ignore the millstone the Conservatives carry into the coming General Elections, how awful they have been in government the last 4 years.

    The actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats the Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold? Whatever the answer to that question is, I can’t see it, so by all means share the answer. 😕
    The LibDems will not hold those 2024 seats in any great numbers. When people get fed up of Labour, they will not say "Oh, let's give the LibDems a go. You never know, they might be better at stopping all the shit we are fed up with Labour about."

    Because they have facilitated that shit. The constituencies getting the worst deal in coming years will be those Labour don't need to win. The Tories will at least have their position as Official Opposition to try to shame Labour into reigning back on their worst vindictive efforts.The LibDems will just have to advise their voters to bend down and grasp their ankles.

    The only advice the LibDems can offer constituensts is "Lube up..."
    It’s encouraging that this is the Tory strategy. Just sit back and let those old seats lost to Lib Dems come home to the natural party of government.
    Given the LDs exceeded pretty much all expectations by winning basically every target seat, even if half the seats they took from the Tories were to 'come home' as some Tories expect, they would probably see that as a good result if their voteshare holds up reasonably.
    I don't think the Tories will find it easy to win those seats back. They will be straight LD Tory fights with an obvious choice to voters to keep the Tories out.

    Liberal values and attitudes are now mainstream in the shires. Even Oakham has a pride parade now.
    For now, at the moment the likeliest outcome of the next general election may well be a Labour and LD coalition government.

    If so, the Tories can start to portray the LDs as Labour's tax rising little helpers in the home counties
    Nothing to do with us guv. We LDs are on the opposition benches 😀
    For now
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,796
    Fckn hell, Chris Hoy has terminal cancer and his wife has been diagnosed with a particularly aggressive form of MS. Poor sod.

    https://x.com/channel_tsc/status/1847746511347630441?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    A suggestion for a PB header/discussion.

    There appears to be a disconnect between the polls and the betting. Recent polls have Trump narrowing the gap such that the race is now a coin toss. However Harris is still marginally ahead in the key swing states.

    But the betting now has Trump as clear favourite to win. Is this smart money or a consequence of market manipulation by Trump backers?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,390
    Chris Hoy has terminal cancer papers are reporting tonight.

    Terrible news.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,307

    @leon could have waited for the NHS!!


    George Mann
    @sgfmann

    The Sunday Telegraph: Millions to be given NHS smart
    watches

    #TomorrowsPapersToday

    "By giving out millions of smart watches on the NHS, we will be able to secure the supply of freebies to Labour ministers from grateful watch vendors."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Robert Jenrick has promised to tear up the Climate Change Act if he becomes Tory leader and eventually prime minister.

    He has said he will scrap major pieces of Blair and Brown era legislation including the Climate Change Act, Equality Act and Human Rights Act under a “Great Reform Act” if he makes it to No 10.

    His plans include scrapping carbon budgets and unburdening businesses of equality laws which have been criticised for driving positive discrimination and political correctness in the workplace.

    He described carbon budgets as “Soviet-style five-year plans” and claimed they impede the building of critical national infrastructure projects.

    He would also take aim at the public sector equality duty in the Equality Act and section 6 of the Human Rights Act, which gives the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) force in British law.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/19/jenrick-pledge-scrap-climate-change-act-if-tory-leader/

    Nope. My mum has voted Kemi, so Jenrick will be back to obscurity after his 15 minutes of fame.
    Jenrick is sounding a bit desperate now.
    Yougov had it Badenoch 52% Jenrick 48% at the start of October, so if he can win over a few more members wanting a firm shift to the right he could do it. Badenoch would have beaten Tugendhat by a comfortable 58% to 42% Yougov found and Cleverly also clearly 54% to 46% as the clearly more rightwing candidate in a membership wanting a shift away from Sunak and Hunt centrism but Jenrick could beat her from the right whereas they couldn't
    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50624-conservative-members-and-the-2024-leadership-contest
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 775

    rcs1000 said:

    Trump has cancelled his NRA love-in - to go to a Latino event.

    In Florida.

    Word is the Republicans are worried the anti-Haitian comments are playing VERY badly there. And there are 500,000 Haitians in the state - the largest concentration in the whole US.

    Be so funny if "They are eating the dogs. They are eating the cats..." cost him Florida - and its 30 EC votes. Damn near the same as Arizona, Minnesota and Wisconsin with their 31 combined.

    In Florida, the Republican legislature passed a near total abortion ban. Legal abortion is popular in Florida. The result is that the State is highly likely to pass a constitutional amendement that will massively relax abortion access.

    It is also highly likely to get young women voters to the polls. And there is no group less likely than young women voters to vote Democrat.

    Personally, I think Trump hangs on in Florida. But it's far from impossible that Scott (who only leads Mucarsel-Powell by two points according to polls from Marist and Redfield & Wilton) loses.

    I will die laughing and also hopelessly deliriously drunk if he loses Florida.
    I would be very happy too since I backed Dems at 6.6.

    11.5 is now available...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
    Are those local votes this autumn convincing you the Tories will return to government within the next fifteen years?

    General Elections is leader v leader, chancellor v shadow, manifesto v manifesto, economic policy v economic policy - no local by elections won or lost this month are based on that General Election match up when it comes. And not to ignore the millstone the Conservatives carry into the coming General Elections, how awful they have been in government the last 4 years.

    The actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats the Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold? Whatever the answer to that question is, I can’t see it, so by all means share the answer. 😕
    The LibDems will not hold those 2024 seats in any great numbers. When people get fed up of Labour, they will not say "Oh, let's give the LibDems a go. You never know, they might be better at stopping all the shit we are fed up with Labour about."

    Because they have facilitated that shit. The constituencies getting the worst deal in coming years will be those Labour don't need to win. The Tories will at least have their position as Official Opposition to try to shame Labour into reigning back on their worst vindictive efforts.The LibDems will just have to advise their voters to bend down and grasp their ankles.

    The only advice the LibDems can offer constituensts is "Lube up..."
    It’s encouraging that this is the Tory strategy. Just sit back and let those old seats lost to Lib Dems come home to the natural party of government.
    Given the LDs exceeded pretty much all expectations by winning basically every target seat, even if half the seats they took from the Tories were to 'come home' as some Tories expect, they would probably see that as a good result if their voteshare holds up reasonably.
    I don't think the Tories will find it easy to win those seats back. They will be straight LD Tory fights with an obvious choice to voters to keep the Tories out.

    Liberal values and attitudes are now mainstream in the shires. Even Oakham has a pride parade now.
    For now, at the moment the likeliest outcome of the next general election may well be a Labour and LD coalition government.

    If so, the Tories can start to portray the LDs as Labour's tax rising little helpers in the home counties
    Nothing to do with us guv. We LDs are on the opposition benches 😀
    For now
    An LD majority government next GE is certainly a stretch target, but I am encouraged by your faith in the project.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's a good header.

    The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.

    It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.

    But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.

    The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.

    The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.

    Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.

    Switzerland and Singapore are relatively small financial services dominated tax havens effectively and Norway has masses of oil for its small size, they are unique circumstances
    Manufacturing output per person:

    Singapore - $53,548
    Switzerland - $18,081
    UK - $4,075

    So... ummm... about those countries being dominated by financial services? Would you like to reconsider?
    'The total value of UK manufacturers' product sales was £456.1 billion in 2023, Singapore manufacturing output for 2022 was $95.70B,'
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/manufacturingandproductionindustry#:~:text=The total value of UK,total manufacturers' sales in 2023.
    https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/SGP/singapore/manufacturing-output#:~:text=Data are in current U.S.,a 27.99% increase from 2020.

    You are not going to make Stoke, ex industrial Northern France or Ohio or Michigan into Singapore, for starters as it is a city state
    I 'm young enough to remember when the Tories were all about making Epping, okay London, into Singapore-on-Thames.

    You were there at the time, too.

    Wonder what's come over you?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,827

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Robert Jenrick has promised to tear up the Climate Change Act if he becomes Tory leader and eventually prime minister.

    He has said he will scrap major pieces of Blair and Brown era legislation including the Climate Change Act, Equality Act and Human Rights Act under a “Great Reform Act” if he makes it to No 10.

    His plans include scrapping carbon budgets and unburdening businesses of equality laws which have been criticised for driving positive discrimination and political correctness in the workplace.

    He described carbon budgets as “Soviet-style five-year plans” and claimed they impede the building of critical national infrastructure projects.

    He would also take aim at the public sector equality duty in the Equality Act and section 6 of the Human Rights Act, which gives the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) force in British law.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/19/jenrick-pledge-scrap-climate-change-act-if-tory-leader/

    Nope. My mum has voted Kemi, so Jenrick will be back to obscurity after his 15 minutes of fame.
    Jenrick is sounding a bit desperate now.
    Is there anything else he can promise we will leave to get more attention?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,423

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Robert Jenrick has promised to tear up the Climate Change Act if he becomes Tory leader and eventually prime minister.

    He has said he will scrap major pieces of Blair and Brown era legislation including the Climate Change Act, Equality Act and Human Rights Act under a “Great Reform Act” if he makes it to No 10.

    His plans include scrapping carbon budgets and unburdening businesses of equality laws which have been criticised for driving positive discrimination and political correctness in the workplace.

    He described carbon budgets as “Soviet-style five-year plans” and claimed they impede the building of critical national infrastructure projects.

    He would also take aim at the public sector equality duty in the Equality Act and section 6 of the Human Rights Act, which gives the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) force in British law.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/19/jenrick-pledge-scrap-climate-change-act-if-tory-leader/

    Nope. My mum has voted Kemi, so Jenrick will be back to obscurity after his 15 minutes of fame.
    Jenrick is sounding a bit desperate now.

    This feels like the first broadside in the inevitable arms race to be the most right wing candidate (rational politicking for this electorate). Interesting that it's happened just as the ballots have arrived.

    He hasn't left many laws left for Badenoch to repeal, which is kinda genius. She would have to go for gay marriage and minimum wage to raise him.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,390
    Haven't we been saying this on PB for years?



    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    5h
    🚨Trump's former Director of National Intelligence, Dan Coats, suspects Putin is blackmailing Trump.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's a good header.

    The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.

    It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.

    But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.

    The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.

    The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.

    Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.

    Switzerland and Singapore are relatively small financial services dominated tax havens effectively and Norway has masses of oil for its small size, they are unique circumstances
    Manufacturing output per person:

    Singapore - $53,548
    Switzerland - $18,081
    UK - $4,075

    So... ummm... about those countries being dominated by financial services? Would you like to reconsider?
    'The total value of UK manufacturers' product sales was £456.1 billion in 2023, Singapore manufacturing output for 2022 was $95.70B,'
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/manufacturingandproductionindustry#:~:text=The total value of UK,total manufacturers' sales in 2023.
    https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/SGP/singapore/manufacturing-output#:~:text=Data are in current U.S.,a 27.99% increase from 2020.

    You are not going to make Stoke, ex industrial Northern France or Ohio or Michigan into Singapore, for starters as it is a city state
    I 'm young enough to remember when the Tories were all about making Epping, okay London, into Singapore-on-Thames.

    You were there at the time, too.

    Wonder what's come over you?
    I voted Remain if you recall
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Robert Jenrick has promised to tear up the Climate Change Act if he becomes Tory leader and eventually prime minister.

    He has said he will scrap major pieces of Blair and Brown era legislation including the Climate Change Act, Equality Act and Human Rights Act under a “Great Reform Act” if he makes it to No 10.

    His plans include scrapping carbon budgets and unburdening businesses of equality laws which have been criticised for driving positive discrimination and political correctness in the workplace.

    He described carbon budgets as “Soviet-style five-year plans” and claimed they impede the building of critical national infrastructure projects.

    He would also take aim at the public sector equality duty in the Equality Act and section 6 of the Human Rights Act, which gives the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) force in British law.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/19/jenrick-pledge-scrap-climate-change-act-if-tory-leader/

    Nope. My mum has voted Kemi, so Jenrick will be back to obscurity after his 15 minutes of fame.
    Jenrick is sounding a bit desperate now.
    Yougov had it Badenoch 52% Jenrick 48% at the start of October, so if he can win over a few more members wanting a firm shift to the right he could do it. Badenoch would have beaten Tugendhat by a comfortable 58% to 42% Yougov found and Cleverly also clearly 54% to 46% as the clearly more rightwing candidate in a membership wanting a shift away from Sunak and Hunt centrism but Jenrick could beat her from the right whereas they couldn't
    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50624-conservative-members-and-the-2024-leadership-contest
    Yes, but you are neglecting the obvious fact that my mother is always right.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Robert Jenrick has promised to tear up the Climate Change Act if he becomes Tory leader and eventually prime minister.

    He has said he will scrap major pieces of Blair and Brown era legislation including the Climate Change Act, Equality Act and Human Rights Act under a “Great Reform Act” if he makes it to No 10.

    His plans include scrapping carbon budgets and unburdening businesses of equality laws which have been criticised for driving positive discrimination and political correctness in the workplace.

    He described carbon budgets as “Soviet-style five-year plans” and claimed they impede the building of critical national infrastructure projects.

    He would also take aim at the public sector equality duty in the Equality Act and section 6 of the Human Rights Act, which gives the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) force in British law.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/19/jenrick-pledge-scrap-climate-change-act-if-tory-leader/

    Nope. My mum has voted Kemi, so Jenrick will be back to obscurity after his 15 minutes of fame.
    Jenrick is sounding a bit desperate now.

    This feels like the first broadside in the inevitable arms race to be the most right wing candidate (rational politicking for this electorate). Interesting that it's happened just as the ballots have arrived.

    He hasn't left many laws left for Badenoch to repeal, which is kinda genius. She would have to go for gay marriage and minimum wage to raise him.
    Kemi has wisely not entered that arena. She refuses to write a manifesto 4 years before the election.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,307

    Haven't we been saying this on PB for years?



    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    5h
    🚨Trump's former Director of National Intelligence, Dan Coats, suspects Putin is blackmailing Trump.

    How and with what? Why is it necessary for these people to construct such implausible conspiracy theories rather than accepting that Trump is who he is, for better or worse?
  • Haven't we been saying this on PB for years?



    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    5h
    🚨Trump's former Director of National Intelligence, Dan Coats, suspects Putin is blackmailing Trump.

    The question then is what terrible secret is Trump supposedly hiding. Considering there is so much stuff about trump in public domain already
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's a good header.

    The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.

    It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.

    But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.

    The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.

    The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.

    Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.

    Switzerland and Singapore are relatively small financial services dominated tax havens effectively and Norway has masses of oil for its small size, they are unique circumstances
    Manufacturing output per person:

    Singapore - $53,548
    Switzerland - $18,081
    UK - $4,075

    So... ummm... about those countries being dominated by financial services? Would you like to reconsider?
    'The total value of UK manufacturers' product sales was £456.1 billion in 2023, Singapore manufacturing output for 2022 was $95.70B,'
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/manufacturingandproductionindustry#:~:text=The total value of UK,total manufacturers' sales in 2023.
    https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/SGP/singapore/manufacturing-output#:~:text=Data are in current U.S.,a 27.99% increase from 2020.

    You are not going to make Stoke, ex industrial Northern France or Ohio or Michigan into Singapore, for starters as it is a city state
    I 'm young enough to remember when the Tories were all about making Epping, okay London, into Singapore-on-Thames.

    You were there at the time, too.

    Wonder what's come over you?
    I voted Remain if you recall
    Sure, but you didn't resign from the party the morning after the referendum, did you? And the party policy was all about Brexit then.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    Real votes cast in by-elections not so terrifying though.
    Are those local votes this autumn convincing you the Tories will return to government within the next fifteen years?

    General Elections is leader v leader, chancellor v shadow, manifesto v manifesto, economic policy v economic policy - no local by elections won or lost this month are based on that General Election match up when it comes. And not to ignore the millstone the Conservatives carry into the coming General Elections, how awful they have been in government the last 4 years.

    The actual question is, what brings the Lib Dem held seats the Conservatives need to form a government, what brings the voters Conservatives have lost to Reform, but need in order to form a government, back into the fold? Whatever the answer to that question is, I can’t see it, so by all means share the answer. 😕
    The LibDems will not hold those 2024 seats in any great numbers. When people get fed up of Labour, they will not say "Oh, let's give the LibDems a go. You never know, they might be better at stopping all the shit we are fed up with Labour about."

    Because they have facilitated that shit. The constituencies getting the worst deal in coming years will be those Labour don't need to win. The Tories will at least have their position as Official Opposition to try to shame Labour into reigning back on their worst vindictive efforts.The LibDems will just have to advise their voters to bend down and grasp their ankles.

    The only advice the LibDems can offer constituensts is "Lube up..."
    It’s encouraging that this is the Tory strategy. Just sit back and let those old seats lost to Lib Dems come home to the natural party of government.
    Given the LDs exceeded pretty much all expectations by winning basically every target seat, even if half the seats they took from the Tories were to 'come home' as some Tories expect, they would probably see that as a good result if their voteshare holds up reasonably.
    I don't think the Tories will find it easy to win those seats back. They will be straight LD Tory fights with an obvious choice to voters to keep the Tories out.

    Liberal values and attitudes are now mainstream in the shires. Even Oakham has a pride parade now.
    The Lib Dem majorities are more solid than quite a considerable number of Tory ones. For example, they have more majorities over 10,000 than the Conservatives do.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 775
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Robert Jenrick has promised to tear up the Climate Change Act if he becomes Tory leader and eventually prime minister.

    He has said he will scrap major pieces of Blair and Brown era legislation including the Climate Change Act, Equality Act and Human Rights Act under a “Great Reform Act” if he makes it to No 10.

    His plans include scrapping carbon budgets and unburdening businesses of equality laws which have been criticised for driving positive discrimination and political correctness in the workplace.

    He described carbon budgets as “Soviet-style five-year plans” and claimed they impede the building of critical national infrastructure projects.

    He would also take aim at the public sector equality duty in the Equality Act and section 6 of the Human Rights Act, which gives the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) force in British law.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/19/jenrick-pledge-scrap-climate-change-act-if-tory-leader/

    Nope. My mum has voted Kemi, so Jenrick will be back to obscurity after his 15 minutes of fame.
    Jenrick is sounding a bit desperate now.
    Yougov had it Badenoch 52% Jenrick 48% at the start of October, so if he can win over a few more members wanting a firm shift to the right he could do it. Badenoch would have beaten Tugendhat by a comfortable 58% to 42% Yougov found and Cleverly also clearly 54% to 46% as the clearly more rightwing candidate in a membership wanting a shift away from Sunak and Hunt centrism but Jenrick could beat her from the right whereas they couldn't
    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50624-conservative-members-and-the-2024-leadership-contest
    Yes, but you are neglecting the obvious fact that my mother is always right.
    And uncommonly attractive
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    HYUFD said:

    'Robert Jenrick has promised to tear up the Climate Change Act if he becomes Tory leader and eventually prime minister.

    He has said he will scrap major pieces of Blair and Brown era legislation including the Climate Change Act, Equality Act and Human Rights Act under a “Great Reform Act” if he makes it to No 10.

    His plans include scrapping carbon budgets and unburdening businesses of equality laws which have been criticised for driving positive discrimination and political correctness in the workplace.

    He described carbon budgets as “Soviet-style five-year plans” and claimed they impede the building of critical national infrastructure projects.

    He would also take aim at the public sector equality duty in the Equality Act and section 6 of the Human Rights Act, which gives the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) force in British law.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/19/jenrick-pledge-scrap-climate-change-act-if-tory-leader/

    YES, YES, YES, & YES.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,706

    Haven't we been saying this on PB for years?

    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    5h
    🚨Trump's former Director of National Intelligence, Dan Coats, suspects Putin is blackmailing Trump.

    One thing I don't think anybody knows is what Trump's foreign policy would look like once he's term-limited and Putin has lost his leverage.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,423

    Haven't we been saying this on PB for years?



    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    5h
    🚨Trump's former Director of National Intelligence, Dan Coats, suspects Putin is blackmailing Trump.

    How and with what? Why is it necessary for these people to construct such implausible conspiracy theories rather than accepting that Trump is who he is, for better or worse?
    That's normalcy bias. The idea that Trump is actually being actively blackmailed is bonkers, but this isn't some lefty on twitter. It's Dan Coats.

    But the sad fact is that even if Trump is being blackmailed by Putin, it would only make a marginal impact on his support. Trump is a religion now.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    ...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,423
    edited October 19

    Haven't we been saying this on PB for years?



    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    5h
    🚨Trump's former Director of National Intelligence, Dan Coats, suspects Putin is blackmailing Trump.

    The question then is what terrible secret is Trump supposedly hiding. Considering there is so much stuff about trump in public domain already
    And he's completely shameless. It's a bit like being openly gay in the intelligence services - not a problem if everyone knows already.

    It would have to be something to do with his debt. Or his sons.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RHunt said:

    We shouldnt be complacent.
    This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.

    For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"

    Robinson now backs UKIP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
    Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.
    it still stands candidates post Farage
    But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.
    See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.
    Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etc
    That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.

    This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.


    (There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
    From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.

    Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:

    Lab: 31 (=)
    Con: 24 (=)
    Ref: 20 (=)
    LD: 12 (=)
    Grn: 8 (=)

    https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
    Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchanged
    That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.
    It would be surprising if 3 months after the "nobody likes the Tories" election, the Tories were suddenly wildly popular. Particularly when all they're doing is talking to themselves. (This isn't a criticism - it's normal ina leadership election. Though the Conservatives do take a remarkably long time about these things.) It's a long hard slog back to viability for government and it's going to take years, not months.
    Reckon that "suddenly", "wildly" AND "popular" are all three doing a LOT of heavy lifting . . .
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