Why Trump is (a bit) like Hamas – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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It's a good header.
The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.
It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.
But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.
The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.
The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.
Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.7 -
They won them all? Jeez, ULA must be pooing themselves.Malmesbury said:
https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-sweeps-latest-round-of-military-launch-contracts/viewcode said:
For the Nth time: his greatest advances with Starship were under the Biden Administration and the initial contracts that started the whole commercial space thing were done under the Obama Administration. You are right that they don't like him but business is business and he is the only player on the field.Cookie said:
He knows the Dems don't like him and are likely to try to make gis life difficult.highwayparadise306 said:
The space thing is impressive. The Trump connection could be about tax concessions or joint ventures with government.Omnium said:
He seems to make little sense when he ventures into politics, and has made some absolute clangers. Lord knows why he supports Trump - totally against his own interests.highwayparadise306 said:
The man is a cretin.Foxy said:
Is this imagined puppet master perhaps of semitic origin we might wonder.Nigelb said:Musk might be a remarkable manufacturing innovator - but he's also a deeply weird peddler of conspiracy theories.
ELON MUSK: "There isn't any one puppet master behind Biden and that apparatus. Biden is not in charge. Kamala is not in charge. They just replaced the Biden puppet with the Kamala puppet. You can tell if the teleprompter breaks they start looping. There's many puppet masters.
"I'd love to see the crossover of puppet maters and the Epstein client list."
https://x.com/AutismCapital/status/1847035061738377317
However look at the booster coming back to earth the other day and landing at the gantry - whatever his bad points might be there are substantial and world-beating good points.
Having the cheapest and best offering in a market place has a certain effect, in the end…0 -
Japan has the plutonium and the missiles. They might even field a multistage weapon straight out of the box. The only question is how much preparatory engineering they have done.RandallFlagg said:
End of NATO means nuclear proliferation I imagine. Both Poland and Japan would try to get hold of nukes if the US nuclear umbrella disappears.PoodleInASlipstream said:
Trump 2.0 means the end of the world order as it has been since the 40s. NATO cannot survive if its biggest member effectively switches sides. Any nation with even the most flimsy territorial claim and sufficient military capability will know they will get away with using force.FrankBooth said:What would a Trump presidency mean? F*ck knows. But we should be taking his statements seriously. He's likely to abandon Ukraine and cosy up to Putin. This could destroy Nato and put us at odds with a US government in a way we haven't been for over 100 years. We're facing a major threat from the Axis of autocrats led by China and it's not clear the US President would be on our side.
And, yes, almost nobody in power is taking this seriously enough.
We are not prepared for a world where the US is an enemy. Where Ukraine falls and multiple EU members know they are next in line for Putin's meatgrinder. Where China makes a grab for Taiwan and causes a global economic meltdown.
This isn't even accounting for the not insignificant chance the US itself begins to come apart. If you are the US military command do you obey Trump's orders to abandon Ukraine and begin aiding Russia, or do you consider the unthinkable? Does the Governor of a liberal state acquiesce as Vance & co implement Project 2025, or does succession suddenly become the lest terrible course?
Lots of people are closing their eyes and hoping this doesn't happen. I hope they're not in for an unpleasant shock.
Poland has one research reactor, which used to run on bomb grade uranium (80%). They converted it to 32% at US behest (anti proliferation) a while back. But if hey have the old, expended rods, it would be chemistry to separate the plutonium and other products and get back HEU….1 -
I don't think the stats bear that out. The poorest in society have gotten much richer in say the last 50 years. In the US, median wages basically rise every year yet their politics is pretty extreme.Malmesbury said:
I don’t think it necessarily means that.FF43 said:
I don't understand this much and casually repeated argument: The good guys are to blame for the bad guys being bad.Andy_JS said:
Trump is a warning to democracies everywhere of what you get if mainstream politicians ignore the legitimate concerns of a large segment of the population. Between 2000 and 2015 life was getting worse for a lot of Americans but almost the entire political class ignored it because it suited them to believe that because everything was going quite well for them it must also be going well for everyone else.kinabalu said:
Yep. And win or lose he'll get a big vote on Nov 5th for various reasons. To list a few:bondegezou said:
Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.moonshine said:
Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).bondegezou said:
a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.Casino_Royale said:Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.
We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.
So, why?
b. Racism is popular.
Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
He's the GOP candidate. Loads of people always vote GOP.
He's a skilful exploiter of ignorance and resentment.
He's charismatic and has built a massive energetic loyal cult (MAGA).
Most Americans don't feel better off despite what the stats say.
It might be enough. I don't think so but my instincts could be wrong. Soon find out anyway.
Economic prosperity both in the UK and US became segmented, especially in the last 2-3 decades
I did very well. Pay rises, lots of work etc.
At the same time a lot of people saw actual wage decreases. Many services and goods became cheaper as a result. For me and those like me - awesome.
So carpeting a flat went from £1600 in 1998 to £700 (same flat) in 2019. Yay for me. For the people in the carpet business?
People like me didn’t sit around a table planning to kick carpet fitters where it hurts. But they got hurt.
The UK has had a period of poor performance over last 20 years, and yet we have returned to the 'centre', with the Lib Dems and Labour both having their best election results in aged.1 -
Ooh. The Times Colonist...SeaShantyIrish2 said:While PBers around the globe await results of today's British Columbia provinicial general election:
[Victoria, BC] Times Colonist - Election results could come within an hour of polls closing
Once polls close, electronic tabulators will produce paper results that will be phoned in to the district electoral office, where officials will enter the results for publication on Elections B.C.’s website
Faster electronic tabulation means results for the provincial election could be available within an hour of polls closing Saturday.
Elections B.C. spokesperson Andrew Watson said the goal is to have 50 per cent of the results within half an hour of polls closing at 8 p.m., and the majority “within the hour.” . . .
Clerks will be using laptops for electronic registration, so when people show up to vote, they can enter the shortest queue to sign in, produce their proof of identification and register if they haven’t done so already. In the past, people had to wait for a designated line. . . .
The goal of making voting easier and faster is to increase voter participation. Voter turnout was just 54 per cent in 2020, down from about 61 per cent in 2017, and significantly lower than the 71 per cent turnout rate in 1996.
Voters will mark an X or fill in the circle beside a candidate’s name on familiar paper ballots, then place the ballot in a privacy sleeve and feed it into an electronic tabulator, which strips the ballot of the sleeve and reads it.
Once polls close, the machines will produce paper results that will be phoned in to the district electoral office, where officials will enter the results for publication on Elections B.C.’s website. . . .
The other benefit of electronic tabulation is that it captures 98 per cent of the votes cast, including mail-in and absentee ballots.
Advance ballots cast over six days this month — a record-breaking over a million, representing 28 per cent of all registered voters in B.C. — will also be tabulated.
With several ridings on Vancouver Island and the rest of the province too close to call by pollsters, it’s possible one or more will come down to a difference of 100 votes or fewer.
In that case, the ballots from those ridings will be recounted by hand as part of the larger final count scheduled for Oct. 26-28 . . .
If as part of that final manual recount, the difference between two or more candidates in a riding comes within 1/500th of the total votes cast, there will be a judicial recount. After that, the official results will be sent to the chief electoral officer, who will forward them to the B.C. legislature.
In this provincial election, there are 93 ridings, including 15 on Vancouver Island.
Both the NDP and BC Conservatives are running a full slate of candidates, while the Greens are running 69, and a record 40 Independents are in the race, including six incumbents.
https://www.timescolonist.com/2024-bc-votes/election-results-could-come-within-an-hour-of-polls-closing-96802240 -
The oil market is pretty spivvy. Oil gets taken on a tanker from Iran to a storage facility in Mauritius, and then gets picked up and taken to a refinery on the coast of India, and all the paperwork has been lost, but - hey - it's not a ship from Russia, so how can it be Russian oil?highwayparadise306 said:China. The buyer of Iranian oil.
It's how Marc Rich became a billionaire.1 -
I dont think you probably realise rcs mixing in the circles you do how absolutely stupid some people are. Upskilling them is for the birds. So what to do with them. The preferred solution in the uk is to let them rot on sink estates.rcs1000 said:It's a good header.
The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.
It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.
But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.
The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.
The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.
Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.0 -
That comes of not breaking down stats enough. Have you not noticed the left behind areas in this country?rkrkrk said:
I don't think the stats bear that out. The poorest in society have gotten much richer in say the last 50 years. In the US, median wages basically rise every year yet their politics is pretty extreme.Malmesbury said:
I don’t think it necessarily means that.FF43 said:
I don't understand this much and casually repeated argument: The good guys are to blame for the bad guys being bad.Andy_JS said:
Trump is a warning to democracies everywhere of what you get if mainstream politicians ignore the legitimate concerns of a large segment of the population. Between 2000 and 2015 life was getting worse for a lot of Americans but almost the entire political class ignored it because it suited them to believe that because everything was going quite well for them it must also be going well for everyone else.kinabalu said:
Yep. And win or lose he'll get a big vote on Nov 5th for various reasons. To list a few:bondegezou said:
Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.moonshine said:
Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).bondegezou said:
a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.Casino_Royale said:Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.
We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.
So, why?
b. Racism is popular.
Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
He's the GOP candidate. Loads of people always vote GOP.
He's a skilful exploiter of ignorance and resentment.
He's charismatic and has built a massive energetic loyal cult (MAGA).
Most Americans don't feel better off despite what the stats say.
It might be enough. I don't think so but my instincts could be wrong. Soon find out anyway.
Economic prosperity both in the UK and US became segmented, especially in the last 2-3 decades
I did very well. Pay rises, lots of work etc.
At the same time a lot of people saw actual wage decreases. Many services and goods became cheaper as a result. For me and those like me - awesome.
So carpeting a flat went from £1600 in 1998 to £700 (same flat) in 2019. Yay for me. For the people in the carpet business?
People like me didn’t sit around a table planning to kick carpet fitters where it hurts. But they got hurt.
The UK has had a period of poor performance over last 20 years, and yet we have returned to the 'centre', with the Lib Dems and Labour both having their best election results in aged.
The main parties are not popular. And people are wondering what comes next after that.1 -
Its always much easier if you start off being Rich though.rcs1000 said:
The oil market is pretty spivvy. Oil gets taken on a tanker from Iran to a storage facility in Mauritius, and then gets picked up and taken to a refinery on the coast of India, and all the paperwork has been lost, but - hey - it's not a ship from Russia, so how can it be Russian oil?highwayparadise306 said:China. The buyer of Iranian oil.
It's how Marc Rich became a billionaire.0 -
A plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border. Which side do you bury the survivors?RHunt said:
I dont think you probably realise rcs mixing in the circles you do how absolutely stupid some people are. Upskilling them is for the birds. So what to do with them. The preferred solution in the uk is to let them rot on sink estates.rcs1000 said:It's a good header.
The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.
It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.
But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.
The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.
The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.
Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.3 -
Just to help you out: try not to start posting on a Saturday, and focus on correct capitalisation. That way it will be weeks before we twig you're not a genuine poster.RHunt said:
If i was the genius in charge i would crash the stock market and economy as soon as Trump got in in order to discredit his populism.algarkirk said:
What should those in power do about it that they are not doing? What will prepare us for this possibility, due to land in a few weeks, and what preparation should those with the closed eyes be making? And if they were making any plans, should they be made in public?PoodleInASlipstream said:
Trump 2.0 means the end of the world order as it has been since the 40s. NATO cannot survive if its biggest member effectively switches sides. Any nation with even the most flimsy territorial claim and sufficient military capability will know they will get away with using force.FrankBooth said:What would a Trump presidency mean? F*ck knows. But we should be taking his statements seriously. He's likely to abandon Ukraine and cosy up to Putin. This could destroy Nato and put us at odds with a US government in a way we haven't been for over 100 years. We're facing a major threat from the Axis of autocrats led by China and it's not clear the US President would be on our side.
And, yes, almost nobody in power is taking this seriously enough.
We are not prepared for a world where the US is an enemy. Where Ukraine falls and multiple EU members know they are next in line for Putin's meatgrinder. Where China makes a grab for Taiwan and causes a global economic meltdown.
This isn't even accounting for the not insignificant chance the US itself begins to come apart. If you are the US military command do you obey Trump's orders to abandon Ukraine and begin aiding Russia, or do you consider the unthinkable? Does the Governor of a liberal state acquiesce as Vance & co implement Project 2025, or does succession suddenly become the lest terrible course?
Lots of people are closing their eyes and hoping this doesn't happen. I hope they're not in for an unpleasant shock.1 -
Rules of Origin: to benefit from the UK's free trade deals, exports have to have more than a certain percentage of their content being British made. And we don't have anything like a complete automotive supply chain.Jim_Miller said:Possibly relevant to this discussion: The small state of Kentucky (population about 4.5 million) assembles more than 1 million vehicles every year. https://cedky.com/cdn/130_03292021_Automotive_Book_v1_2.pdf
Were I to look for ways to increase manufacturing in Britain, I'd look hard at the policies followed by the successful states in the US. (South Carolina is another.)1 -
Here's another from the TC regarding this fascinating election.dixiedean said:
Ooh. The Times Colonist...SeaShantyIrish2 said:While PBers around the globe await results of today's British Columbia provinicial general election:
[Victoria, BC] Times Colonist - Election results could come within an hour of polls closing
Once polls close, electronic tabulators will produce paper results that will be phoned in to the district electoral office, where officials will enter the results for publication on Elections B.C.’s website
Faster electronic tabulation means results for the provincial election could be available within an hour of polls closing Saturday.
Elections B.C. spokesperson Andrew Watson said the goal is to have 50 per cent of the results within half an hour of polls closing at 8 p.m., and the majority “within the hour.” . . .
Clerks will be using laptops for electronic registration, so when people show up to vote, they can enter the shortest queue to sign in, produce their proof of identification and register if they haven’t done so already. In the past, people had to wait for a designated line. . . .
The goal of making voting easier and faster is to increase voter participation. Voter turnout was just 54 per cent in 2020, down from about 61 per cent in 2017, and significantly lower than the 71 per cent turnout rate in 1996.
Voters will mark an X or fill in the circle beside a candidate’s name on familiar paper ballots, then place the ballot in a privacy sleeve and feed it into an electronic tabulator, which strips the ballot of the sleeve and reads it.
Once polls close, the machines will produce paper results that will be phoned in to the district electoral office, where officials will enter the results for publication on Elections B.C.’s website. . . .
The other benefit of electronic tabulation is that it captures 98 per cent of the votes cast, including mail-in and absentee ballots.
Advance ballots cast over six days this month — a record-breaking over a million, representing 28 per cent of all registered voters in B.C. — will also be tabulated.
With several ridings on Vancouver Island and the rest of the province too close to call by pollsters, it’s possible one or more will come down to a difference of 100 votes or fewer.
In that case, the ballots from those ridings will be recounted by hand as part of the larger final count scheduled for Oct. 26-28 . . .
If as part of that final manual recount, the difference between two or more candidates in a riding comes within 1/500th of the total votes cast, there will be a judicial recount. After that, the official results will be sent to the chief electoral officer, who will forward them to the B.C. legislature.
In this provincial election, there are 93 ridings, including 15 on Vancouver Island.
Both the NDP and BC Conservatives are running a full slate of candidates, while the Greens are running 69, and a record 40 Independents are in the race, including six incumbents.
https://www.timescolonist.com/2024-bc-votes/election-results-could-come-within-an-hour-of-polls-closing-9680224
https://www.timescolonist.com/2024-bc-votes/bc-voters-face-a-once-unthinkable-election-choice-after-stunning-rise-of-conservatives-96813611 -
What a RHunt!Malmesbury said:
A plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border. Which side do you bury the survivors?RHunt said:
I dont think you probably realise rcs mixing in the circles you do how absolutely stupid some people are. Upskilling them is for the birds. So what to do with them. The preferred solution in the uk is to let them rot on sink estates.rcs1000 said:It's a good header.
The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.
It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.
But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.
The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.
The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.
Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.1 -
Were you by any chance a paperboy back in the day, delivering the Times Colonist to fellow residents of Victoria?dixiedean said:
Ooh. The Times Colonist...SeaShantyIrish2 said:While PBers around the globe await results of today's British Columbia provinicial general election:
[Victoria, BC] Times Colonist - Election results could come within an hour of polls closing
Once polls close, electronic tabulators will produce paper results that will be phoned in to the district electoral office, where officials will enter the results for publication on Elections B.C.’s website
Faster electronic tabulation means results for the provincial election could be available within an hour of polls closing Saturday.
Elections B.C. spokesperson Andrew Watson said the goal is to have 50 per cent of the results within half an hour of polls closing at 8 p.m., and the majority “within the hour.” . . .
Clerks will be using laptops for electronic registration, so when people show up to vote, they can enter the shortest queue to sign in, produce their proof of identification and register if they haven’t done so already. In the past, people had to wait for a designated line. . . .
The goal of making voting easier and faster is to increase voter participation. Voter turnout was just 54 per cent in 2020, down from about 61 per cent in 2017, and significantly lower than the 71 per cent turnout rate in 1996.
Voters will mark an X or fill in the circle beside a candidate’s name on familiar paper ballots, then place the ballot in a privacy sleeve and feed it into an electronic tabulator, which strips the ballot of the sleeve and reads it.
Once polls close, the machines will produce paper results that will be phoned in to the district electoral office, where officials will enter the results for publication on Elections B.C.’s website. . . .
The other benefit of electronic tabulation is that it captures 98 per cent of the votes cast, including mail-in and absentee ballots.
Advance ballots cast over six days this month — a record-breaking over a million, representing 28 per cent of all registered voters in B.C. — will also be tabulated.
With several ridings on Vancouver Island and the rest of the province too close to call by pollsters, it’s possible one or more will come down to a difference of 100 votes or fewer.
In that case, the ballots from those ridings will be recounted by hand as part of the larger final count scheduled for Oct. 26-28 . . .
If as part of that final manual recount, the difference between two or more candidates in a riding comes within 1/500th of the total votes cast, there will be a judicial recount. After that, the official results will be sent to the chief electoral officer, who will forward them to the B.C. legislature.
In this provincial election, there are 93 ridings, including 15 on Vancouver Island.
Both the NDP and BC Conservatives are running a full slate of candidates, while the Greens are running 69, and a record 40 Independents are in the race, including six incumbents.
https://www.timescolonist.com/2024-bc-votes/election-results-could-come-within-an-hour-of-polls-closing-9680224
ADDENDUM - Should have noted, that polls close this evening across British Columbia at 8pm Pac time = 4am UK0 -
Donald Trump is going to get a minimum of 45% of the vote. You talk as if the poorest 10% are swinging it for him.Malmesbury said:
That comes of not breaking down stats enough. Have you not noticed the left behind areas in this country?rkrkrk said:
I don't think the stats bear that out. The poorest in society have gotten much richer in say the last 50 years. In the US, median wages basically rise every year yet their politics is pretty extreme.Malmesbury said:
I don’t think it necessarily means that.FF43 said:
I don't understand this much and casually repeated argument: The good guys are to blame for the bad guys being bad.Andy_JS said:
Trump is a warning to democracies everywhere of what you get if mainstream politicians ignore the legitimate concerns of a large segment of the population. Between 2000 and 2015 life was getting worse for a lot of Americans but almost the entire political class ignored it because it suited them to believe that because everything was going quite well for them it must also be going well for everyone else.kinabalu said:
Yep. And win or lose he'll get a big vote on Nov 5th for various reasons. To list a few:bondegezou said:
Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.moonshine said:
Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).bondegezou said:
a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.Casino_Royale said:Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.
We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.
So, why?
b. Racism is popular.
Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
He's the GOP candidate. Loads of people always vote GOP.
He's a skilful exploiter of ignorance and resentment.
He's charismatic and has built a massive energetic loyal cult (MAGA).
Most Americans don't feel better off despite what the stats say.
It might be enough. I don't think so but my instincts could be wrong. Soon find out anyway.
Economic prosperity both in the UK and US became segmented, especially in the last 2-3 decades
I did very well. Pay rises, lots of work etc.
At the same time a lot of people saw actual wage decreases. Many services and goods became cheaper as a result. For me and those like me - awesome.
So carpeting a flat went from £1600 in 1998 to £700 (same flat) in 2019. Yay for me. For the people in the carpet business?
People like me didn’t sit around a table planning to kick carpet fitters where it hurts. But they got hurt.
The UK has had a period of poor performance over last 20 years, and yet we have returned to the 'centre', with the Lib Dems and Labour both having their best election results in aged.
The main parties are not popular. And people are wondering what comes next after that.
He's not drawing support solely from the left behind who do exist, but in any case are generally much better off than they were 20-30 years ago).0 -
Absolutely.rcs1000 said:It's a good header.
The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.
It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.
But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.
The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.
The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.
Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.
It's also a bit of an infantilising argument - "oh the factory closed down so of course people will vote for a guy who talks like a Nazi about immigrants poisoning the blood. And it's all the fault of liberals anyway..." What about people take responsibility for themselves and the shit they come out with? I'm sick of apologizing to these people tbh.0 -
Oh no, I see complete idiots on PB all the time, so I know they're out there.RHunt said:
I dont think you probably realise rcs mixing in the circles you do how absolutely stupid some people are. Upskilling them is for the birds. So what to do with them. The preferred solution in the uk is to let them rot on sink estates.rcs1000 said:It's a good header.
The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.
It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.
But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.
The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.
The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.
Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.2 -
Correction - RH#untOmnium said:
What a RHunt!Malmesbury said:
A plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border. Which side do you bury the survivors?RHunt said:
I dont think you probably realise rcs mixing in the circles you do how absolutely stupid some people are. Upskilling them is for the birds. So what to do with them. The preferred solution in the uk is to let them rot on sink estates.rcs1000 said:It's a good header.
The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.
It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.
But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.
The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.
The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.
Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.0 -
I don't think there is a neutral party. Each nation acts in its own best interest. I'm sure China does. It is competing and expanding - hence the problems with neighbours. But I don't think an out break of hostilities would be in its interest. So it will avoid that.FrankBooth said:
The fact China does not want Russia to use nukes does not make them a neutral party. And there are many other reasons to think Russia wouldn't use nukes than Beijing vetoing it. I very much doubt North Korean troops would be in Ukraine without their say so (and we should point it out to them) and it's very odd that such a 'force for stability' seems to have so many problems with it's neighbours - Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, India etc.Barnesian said:
I think China is actually a force for stability in the world in spite of all its manoeuvres around Taiwan.FrankBooth said:With North Korean troops moving to Ukraine is now the moment to punish China?
The last thing China wants is a third world war or even a trade war. It holds $0.8 trillion US dollars and I believe is vetoing Putin's use any nuclear weapons. It depends on exports. I think its strategy is to gradually increase and extend its power in a stable world. It is a formidable competitor but I don't think we should view it as the enemy as we do with Putin. It won't militarily attack Taiwan but will retain the aspiration of One China. It's a very long term strategy. A strategy that the West is incapable of.
We (the West) should compete vigorously with China in technology, trade and political influence. But we should also recognise that we have interests in common, namely world peace and the stability of a law based system and we should cooperate with China on that.
I hope there are behind the scenes conversations between China and the US on managing Putin. Perhaps on the Middle East.
There are many nations who don't value peace and the rule of law. I hope the US doesn't join them under President Trump. We'll then be looking to China to act as the world's policeman!3 -
Although we should remember 40% of all idiots on PB seem to share a space-time location with Sean Thomas.rcs1000 said:
Oh no, I see complete idiots on PB all the time, so I know they're out there.RHunt said:
I dont think you probably realise rcs mixing in the circles you do how absolutely stupid some people are. Upskilling them is for the birds. So what to do with them. The preferred solution in the uk is to let them rot on sink estates.rcs1000 said:It's a good header.
The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.
It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.
But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.
The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.
The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.
Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.0 -
There's a certain irony that Musk is benefiting from an adminstration that doesn't simply award contracts to its political friends.Malmesbury said:
https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-sweeps-latest-round-of-military-launch-contracts/viewcode said:
For the Nth time: his greatest advances with Starship were under the Biden Administration and the initial contracts that started the whole commercial space thing were done under the Obama Administration. You are right that they don't like him but business is business and he is the only player on the field.Cookie said:
He knows the Dems don't like him and are likely to try to make gis life difficult.highwayparadise306 said:
The space thing is impressive. The Trump connection could be about tax concessions or joint ventures with government.Omnium said:
He seems to make little sense when he ventures into politics, and has made some absolute clangers. Lord knows why he supports Trump - totally against his own interests.highwayparadise306 said:
The man is a cretin.Foxy said:
Is this imagined puppet master perhaps of semitic origin we might wonder.Nigelb said:Musk might be a remarkable manufacturing innovator - but he's also a deeply weird peddler of conspiracy theories.
ELON MUSK: "There isn't any one puppet master behind Biden and that apparatus. Biden is not in charge. Kamala is not in charge. They just replaced the Biden puppet with the Kamala puppet. You can tell if the teleprompter breaks they start looping. There's many puppet masters.
"I'd love to see the crossover of puppet maters and the Epstein client list."
https://x.com/AutismCapital/status/1847035061738377317
However look at the booster coming back to earth the other day and landing at the gantry - whatever his bad points might be there are substantial and world-beating good points.
Having the cheapest and best offering in a market place has a certain effect, in the end…
I wonder if Trump would be so friendly, were they ever to fall out.0 -
On the other hand, political solutions to problems are a bit like other products.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Absolutely.rcs1000 said:It's a good header.
The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.
It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.
But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.
The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.
The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.
Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.
It's also a bit of an infantilising argument - "oh the factory closed down so of course people will vote for a guy who talks like a Nazi about immigrants poisoning the blood. And it's all the fault of liberals anyway..." What about people take responsibility for themselves and the shit they come out with? I'm sick of apologizing to these people tbh.
If no reputable vendors exist for a market, don’t be surprised if some fuckwit starts selling dangerous shit and makes a killing.
Which is why Biden’s approach to dealing with the issues of areas that got “left behind” is worth considering. It may be a case of too little too late for *this* election. But he came up with positive action which were entirely compatible with the principles and aims of his party.3 -
So will Ukraine.RandallFlagg said:
End of NATO means nuclear proliferation I imagine. Both Poland and Japan would try to get hold of nukes if the US nuclear umbrella disappears.PoodleInASlipstream said:
Trump 2.0 means the end of the world order as it has been since the 40s. NATO cannot survive if its biggest member effectively switches sides. Any nation with even the most flimsy territorial claim and sufficient military capability will know they will get away with using force.FrankBooth said:What would a Trump presidency mean? F*ck knows. But we should be taking his statements seriously. He's likely to abandon Ukraine and cosy up to Putin. This could destroy Nato and put us at odds with a US government in a way we haven't been for over 100 years. We're facing a major threat from the Axis of autocrats led by China and it's not clear the US President would be on our side.
And, yes, almost nobody in power is taking this seriously enough.
We are not prepared for a world where the US is an enemy. Where Ukraine falls and multiple EU members know they are next in line for Putin's meatgrinder. Where China makes a grab for Taiwan and causes a global economic meltdown.
This isn't even accounting for the not insignificant chance the US itself begins to come apart. If you are the US military command do you obey Trump's orders to abandon Ukraine and begin aiding Russia, or do you consider the unthinkable? Does the Governor of a liberal state acquiesce as Vance & co implement Project 2025, or does succession suddenly become the lest terrible course?
Lots of people are closing their eyes and hoping this doesn't happen. I hope they're not in for an unpleasant shock.3 -
I doubt it!rcs1000 said:
There's a certain irony that Musk is benefiting from an adminstration that doesn't simply award contracts to its political friends.Malmesbury said:
https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-sweeps-latest-round-of-military-launch-contracts/viewcode said:
For the Nth time: his greatest advances with Starship were under the Biden Administration and the initial contracts that started the whole commercial space thing were done under the Obama Administration. You are right that they don't like him but business is business and he is the only player on the field.Cookie said:
He knows the Dems don't like him and are likely to try to make gis life difficult.highwayparadise306 said:
The space thing is impressive. The Trump connection could be about tax concessions or joint ventures with government.Omnium said:
He seems to make little sense when he ventures into politics, and has made some absolute clangers. Lord knows why he supports Trump - totally against his own interests.highwayparadise306 said:
The man is a cretin.Foxy said:
Is this imagined puppet master perhaps of semitic origin we might wonder.Nigelb said:Musk might be a remarkable manufacturing innovator - but he's also a deeply weird peddler of conspiracy theories.
ELON MUSK: "There isn't any one puppet master behind Biden and that apparatus. Biden is not in charge. Kamala is not in charge. They just replaced the Biden puppet with the Kamala puppet. You can tell if the teleprompter breaks they start looping. There's many puppet masters.
"I'd love to see the crossover of puppet maters and the Epstein client list."
https://x.com/AutismCapital/status/1847035061738377317
However look at the booster coming back to earth the other day and landing at the gantry - whatever his bad points might be there are substantial and world-beating good points.
Having the cheapest and best offering in a market place has a certain effect, in the end…
I wonder if Trump would be so friendly, were they ever to fall out.0 -
'I don't think there is a neutral party.' Well no, I'm glad we're not ourselves. But from that statement I presume you acknowledge that China is on the side of the aggressor? The civilian targeting, child abducting, raping, torturing, murdering in cold blood, barbarous Russian state that just destroys everything in front of it?Barnesian said:
I don't think there is a neutral party. Each nation acts in its own best interest. I'm sure China does. It is competing and expanding - hence the problems with neighbours. But I don't think an out break of hostilities would be in its interest. So it will avoid that.FrankBooth said:
The fact China does not want Russia to use nukes does not make them a neutral party. And there are many other reasons to think Russia wouldn't use nukes than Beijing vetoing it. I very much doubt North Korean troops would be in Ukraine without their say so (and we should point it out to them) and it's very odd that such a 'force for stability' seems to have so many problems with it's neighbours - Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, India etc.Barnesian said:
I think China is actually a force for stability in the world in spite of all its manoeuvres around Taiwan.FrankBooth said:With North Korean troops moving to Ukraine is now the moment to punish China?
The last thing China wants is a third world war or even a trade war. It holds $0.8 trillion US dollars and I believe is vetoing Putin's use any nuclear weapons. It depends on exports. I think its strategy is to gradually increase and extend its power in a stable world. It is a formidable competitor but I don't think we should view it as the enemy as we do with Putin. It won't militarily attack Taiwan but will retain the aspiration of One China. It's a very long term strategy. A strategy that the West is incapable of.
We (the West) should compete vigorously with China in technology, trade and political influence. But we should also recognise that we have interests in common, namely world peace and the stability of a law based system and we should cooperate with China on that.
I hope there are behind the scenes conversations between China and the US on managing Putin. Perhaps on the Middle East.
There are many nations who don't value peace and the rule of law. I hope the US doesn't join them under President Trump. We'll then be looking to China to act as the world's policeman!
As for the rule of law, all they respect is the rule of the CCP. Everything else is just what they can get away with.0 -
I’m talking about the U.K.rkrkrk said:
Donald Trump is going to get a minimum of 45% of the vote. You talk as if the poorest 10% are swinging it for him.Malmesbury said:
That comes of not breaking down stats enough. Have you not noticed the left behind areas in this country?rkrkrk said:
I don't think the stats bear that out. The poorest in society have gotten much richer in say the last 50 years. In the US, median wages basically rise every year yet their politics is pretty extreme.Malmesbury said:
I don’t think it necessarily means that.FF43 said:
I don't understand this much and casually repeated argument: The good guys are to blame for the bad guys being bad.Andy_JS said:
Trump is a warning to democracies everywhere of what you get if mainstream politicians ignore the legitimate concerns of a large segment of the population. Between 2000 and 2015 life was getting worse for a lot of Americans but almost the entire political class ignored it because it suited them to believe that because everything was going quite well for them it must also be going well for everyone else.kinabalu said:
Yep. And win or lose he'll get a big vote on Nov 5th for various reasons. To list a few:bondegezou said:
Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.moonshine said:
Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).bondegezou said:
a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.Casino_Royale said:Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.
We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.
So, why?
b. Racism is popular.
Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
He's the GOP candidate. Loads of people always vote GOP.
He's a skilful exploiter of ignorance and resentment.
He's charismatic and has built a massive energetic loyal cult (MAGA).
Most Americans don't feel better off despite what the stats say.
It might be enough. I don't think so but my instincts could be wrong. Soon find out anyway.
Economic prosperity both in the UK and US became segmented, especially in the last 2-3 decades
I did very well. Pay rises, lots of work etc.
At the same time a lot of people saw actual wage decreases. Many services and goods became cheaper as a result. For me and those like me - awesome.
So carpeting a flat went from £1600 in 1998 to £700 (same flat) in 2019. Yay for me. For the people in the carpet business?
People like me didn’t sit around a table planning to kick carpet fitters where it hurts. But they got hurt.
The UK has had a period of poor performance over last 20 years, and yet we have returned to the 'centre', with the Lib Dems and Labour both having their best election results in aged.
The main parties are not popular. And people are wondering what comes next after that.
He's not drawing support solely from the left behind who do exist, but in any case are generally much better off than they were 20-30 years ago).
There are chunks of the population who have seen a decline in living standards. Most of their money going in rent doesn’t help.
A friend, classic educated, but not credentialed working class, saw successive jobs reduced to minimum wage. In the end, left for Australia.
Why do you think the two big parties are not popular and Nigel Fucking Farage and his clownshow* are up there?
On the subject of the US - MAGA is a coalition like any other potential winning group. Try reading some of the reasons the poorer voters are voting his way.
*Autoincorrect tried to render this as “clown ship”. For some reason I like that.1 -
Ahemydoethur said:
Although we should remember 40% of all idiots on PB seem to share a space-time location with Sean Thomas.rcs1000 said:
Oh no, I see complete idiots on PB all the time, so I know they're out there.RHunt said:
I dont think you probably realise rcs mixing in the circles you do how absolutely stupid some people are. Upskilling them is for the birds. So what to do with them. The preferred solution in the uk is to let them rot on sink estates.rcs1000 said:It's a good header.
The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.
It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.
But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.
The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.
The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.
Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.
3 -
How DARE you call ME a complete idiot! (When I'm clearly a compleat idiot?)rcs1000 said:
Oh no, I see complete idiots on PB all the time, so I know they're out there.RHunt said:
I dont think you probably realise rcs mixing in the circles you do how absolutely stupid some people are. Upskilling them is for the birds. So what to do with them. The preferred solution in the uk is to let them rot on sink estates.rcs1000 said:It's a good header.
The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.
It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.
But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.
The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.
The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.
Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.2 -
"Harris team buoyed by record early voting numbers while Trump courts black voters | David Charter", TimesRadio, 2024-10-19, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71wGmZ0QYuQ
[TL:DR: Georgia is shading Trump...ish. But it's tantalisingly close...]
0 -
Even if Trump does win it will likely be with a small mandate and doesn't mean the US will suddenly become an enemy and pro Russia and China.PoodleInASlipstream said:
Trump 2.0 means the end of the world order as it has been since the 40s. NATO cannot survive if its biggest member effectively switches sides. Any nation with even the most flimsy territorial claim and sufficient military capability will know they will get away with using force.FrankBooth said:What would a Trump presidency mean? F*ck knows. But we should be taking his statements seriously. He's likely to abandon Ukraine and cosy up to Putin. This could destroy Nato and put us at odds with a US government in a way we haven't been for over 100 years. We're facing a major threat from the Axis of autocrats led by China and it's not clear the US President would be on our side.
And, yes, almost nobody in power is taking this seriously enough.
We are not prepared for a world where the US is an enemy. Where Ukraine falls and multiple EU members know they are next in line for Putin's meatgrinder. Where China makes a grab for Taiwan and causes a global economic meltdown.
This isn't even accounting for the not insignificant chance the US itself begins to come apart. If you are the US military command do you obey Trump's orders to abandon Ukraine and begin aiding Russia, or do you consider the unthinkable? Does the Governor of a liberal state acquiesce as Vance & co implement Project 2025, or does succession suddenly become the lest terrible course?
Lots of people are closing their eyes and hoping this doesn't happen. I hope they're not in for an unpleasant shock.
Trump is proposing massive tariffs on Chinese imports as well as EU imports for one and he did back Brexit unlike the Democrats.
Most likely he would try and force a deal between Putin and Zelensky in Ukraine but otherwise remain neutral1 -
Switzerland and Singapore are relatively small financial services dominated tax havens effectively and Norway has masses of oil for its small size, they are unique circumstancesrcs1000 said:It's a good header.
The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.
It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.
But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.
The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.
The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.
Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.3 -
They are long past pooing themselves. LockMart and Boooing are trying to flog ULA on the basis of the launches they’ve got for Kuiper.viewcode said:
They won them all? Jeez, ULA must be pooing themselves.Malmesbury said:
https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-sweeps-latest-round-of-military-launch-contracts/viewcode said:
For the Nth time: his greatest advances with Starship were under the Biden Administration and the initial contracts that started the whole commercial space thing were done under the Obama Administration. You are right that they don't like him but business is business and he is the only player on the field.Cookie said:
He knows the Dems don't like him and are likely to try to make gis life difficult.highwayparadise306 said:
The space thing is impressive. The Trump connection could be about tax concessions or joint ventures with government.Omnium said:
He seems to make little sense when he ventures into politics, and has made some absolute clangers. Lord knows why he supports Trump - totally against his own interests.highwayparadise306 said:
The man is a cretin.Foxy said:
Is this imagined puppet master perhaps of semitic origin we might wonder.Nigelb said:Musk might be a remarkable manufacturing innovator - but he's also a deeply weird peddler of conspiracy theories.
ELON MUSK: "There isn't any one puppet master behind Biden and that apparatus. Biden is not in charge. Kamala is not in charge. They just replaced the Biden puppet with the Kamala puppet. You can tell if the teleprompter breaks they start looping. There's many puppet masters.
"I'd love to see the crossover of puppet maters and the Epstein client list."
https://x.com/AutismCapital/status/1847035061738377317
However look at the booster coming back to earth the other day and landing at the gantry - whatever his bad points might be there are substantial and world-beating good points.
Having the cheapest and best offering in a market place has a certain effect, in the end…
But no one will pay the price. The moment that Sue Origin gets New Glenn working, those launch contracts will evaporate.
And next year, SpaceX will be putting payloads on Starship V2. Even if they haven’t got to second stage reuse by then, that’s a marginal cost of $30 million per flight, for 100 tons.1 -
Is the UK problem down to daft policy, poor opportunity , poisonous media, the end of days, or a daft system ?
We have had since 2010 policy that lacks nuance. Simple solutions. The beneficiaries were short term gains. The cost, inevitably long term decline driven by inequality.
I’d define failure as a society in inequality and unrest. Starmer laying the law against racist riots for example, I don’t blame him but 1984 is around the corner.
Globally, we face a climate crisis that politicians choose to pretend they are tackling. Yet are patently driving the mental health of the powerless into a holding pattern.
I want to be positive but it’s tricky. I’ve been out canvassing this afternoon. Proper rich area. Most plots more than an acre, stacked SUVs. Multi million pound houses. Results were Green or Reform. How are the rich becoming so polarised?
Concerning.0 -
Completely agree, especially with your last point. There needs to be a route out for someone whose skills are no longer needed, and universal high quality education is one of those routes.rcs1000 said:It's a good header.
The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.
It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.
But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.
The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.
The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.
Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.
ETA: or perhaps a route out for the next generation who see their parents' skills count for far less as tech replaces them.0 -
I rather regret the demise of the super-low interest rates that we had. When there was no great benefit to having money in the bank there was no great cost when betting on really long-term markets like next Labour leader. Nobody is going to start offering interest on the funds so tied up, so the great days of being able to bet on long term markets are somewhat over. Nonetheless, just for the hell of it and ignoring the fact that my money cold be better employed just earning interest rather than sitting dormant based on some very questionable edge that I might find, I do rather enjoy these markets.
I'm all green apart from Andy Burnham, and Streeting and Reeves are just small profits. Someone though will be the next Labour leader, and there must be strong clues staring us in the face. Quite interested as to others thoughts.0 -
I can't give this a like, but it is very funnyMalmesbury said:
Ahemydoethur said:
Although we should remember 40% of all idiots on PB seem to share a space-time location with Sean Thomas.rcs1000 said:
Oh no, I see complete idiots on PB all the time, so I know they're out there.RHunt said:
I dont think you probably realise rcs mixing in the circles you do how absolutely stupid some people are. Upskilling them is for the birds. So what to do with them. The preferred solution in the uk is to let them rot on sink estates.rcs1000 said:It's a good header.
The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.
It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.
But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.
The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.
The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.
Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.
0 -
Carpet prices have increased very seriously since 2019, I promise you.rkrkrk said:
I don't think the stats bear that out. The poorest in society have gotten much richer in say the last 50 years. In the US, median wages basically rise every year yet their politics is pretty extreme.Malmesbury said:
I don’t think it necessarily means that.FF43 said:
I don't understand this much and casually repeated argument: The good guys are to blame for the bad guys being bad.Andy_JS said:
Trump is a warning to democracies everywhere of what you get if mainstream politicians ignore the legitimate concerns of a large segment of the population. Between 2000 and 2015 life was getting worse for a lot of Americans but almost the entire political class ignored it because it suited them to believe that because everything was going quite well for them it must also be going well for everyone else.kinabalu said:
Yep. And win or lose he'll get a big vote on Nov 5th for various reasons. To list a few:bondegezou said:
Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.moonshine said:
Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).bondegezou said:
a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.Casino_Royale said:Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.
We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.
So, why?
b. Racism is popular.
Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
He's the GOP candidate. Loads of people always vote GOP.
He's a skilful exploiter of ignorance and resentment.
He's charismatic and has built a massive energetic loyal cult (MAGA).
Most Americans don't feel better off despite what the stats say.
It might be enough. I don't think so but my instincts could be wrong. Soon find out anyway.
Economic prosperity both in the UK and US became segmented, especially in the last 2-3 decades
I did very well. Pay rises, lots of work etc.
At the same time a lot of people saw actual wage decreases. Many services and goods became cheaper as a result. For me and those like me - awesome.
So carpeting a flat went from £1600 in 1998 to £700 (same flat) in 2019. Yay for me. For the people in the carpet business?
People like me didn’t sit around a table planning to kick carpet fitters where it hurts. But they got hurt.
The UK has had a period of poor performance over last 20 years, and yet we have returned to the 'centre', with the Lib Dems and Labour both having their best election results in aged.0 -
It's utter balls to suggest the Trump phenomenon is mainly due to the economic impoverishment of those voting for him.rkrkrk said:
Donald Trump is going to get a minimum of 45% of the vote. You talk as if the poorest 10% are swinging it for him.Malmesbury said:
That comes of not breaking down stats enough. Have you not noticed the left behind areas in this country?rkrkrk said:
I don't think the stats bear that out. The poorest in society have gotten much richer in say the last 50 years. In the US, median wages basically rise every year yet their politics is pretty extreme.Malmesbury said:
I don’t think it necessarily means that.FF43 said:
I don't understand this much and casually repeated argument: The good guys are to blame for the bad guys being bad.Andy_JS said:
Trump is a warning to democracies everywhere of what you get if mainstream politicians ignore the legitimate concerns of a large segment of the population. Between 2000 and 2015 life was getting worse for a lot of Americans but almost the entire political class ignored it because it suited them to believe that because everything was going quite well for them it must also be going well for everyone else.kinabalu said:
Yep. And win or lose he'll get a big vote on Nov 5th for various reasons. To list a few:bondegezou said:
Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.moonshine said:
Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).bondegezou said:
a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.Casino_Royale said:Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.
We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.
So, why?
b. Racism is popular.
Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
He's the GOP candidate. Loads of people always vote GOP.
He's a skilful exploiter of ignorance and resentment.
He's charismatic and has built a massive energetic loyal cult (MAGA).
Most Americans don't feel better off despite what the stats say.
It might be enough. I don't think so but my instincts could be wrong. Soon find out anyway.
Economic prosperity both in the UK and US became segmented, especially in the last 2-3 decades
I did very well. Pay rises, lots of work etc.
At the same time a lot of people saw actual wage decreases. Many services and goods became cheaper as a result. For me and those like me - awesome.
So carpeting a flat went from £1600 in 1998 to £700 (same flat) in 2019. Yay for me. For the people in the carpet business?
People like me didn’t sit around a table planning to kick carpet fitters where it hurts. But they got hurt.
The UK has had a period of poor performance over last 20 years, and yet we have returned to the 'centre', with the Lib Dems and Labour both having their best election results in aged.
The main parties are not popular. And people are wondering what comes next after that.
He's not drawing support solely from the left behind who do exist, but in any case are generally much better off than they were 20-30 years ago).
"Jeez, gas has gotten expensive. I know, I'm gonna vote for that guy who says immigrants are eating cats. Oh yeah!"
No.2 -
Why can’t you give it a like.Omnium said:
I can't give this a like, but it is very funnyMalmesbury said:
Ahemydoethur said:
Although we should remember 40% of all idiots on PB seem to share a space-time location with Sean Thomas.rcs1000 said:
Oh no, I see complete idiots on PB all the time, so I know they're out there.RHunt said:
I dont think you probably realise rcs mixing in the circles you do how absolutely stupid some people are. Upskilling them is for the birds. So what to do with them. The preferred solution in the uk is to let them rot on sink estates.rcs1000 said:It's a good header.
The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.
It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.
But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.
The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.
The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.
Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.
The original film’s Sargent Major (completely ahistorical, by the way) is a classic of the calm delivery of bad news to management…0 -
I think China is on the side of Russia because it is in their interests, not because they agree with what Putin is doing. Their interests include tactical things like cheap oil but also the strategic aim of managing Putin so he doesn't cause a world war and mess up China's markets.FrankBooth said:
'I don't think there is a neutral party.' Well no, I'm glad we're not ourselves. But from that statement I presume you acknowledge that China is on the side of the aggressor? The civilian targeting, child abducting, raping, torturing, murdering in cold blood, barbarous Russian state that just destroys everything in front of it?Barnesian said:
I don't think there is a neutral party. Each nation acts in its own best interest. I'm sure China does. It is competing and expanding - hence the problems with neighbours. But I don't think an out break of hostilities would be in its interest. So it will avoid that.FrankBooth said:
The fact China does not want Russia to use nukes does not make them a neutral party. And there are many other reasons to think Russia wouldn't use nukes than Beijing vetoing it. I very much doubt North Korean troops would be in Ukraine without their say so (and we should point it out to them) and it's very odd that such a 'force for stability' seems to have so many problems with it's neighbours - Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, India etc.Barnesian said:
I think China is actually a force for stability in the world in spite of all its manoeuvres around Taiwan.FrankBooth said:With North Korean troops moving to Ukraine is now the moment to punish China?
The last thing China wants is a third world war or even a trade war. It holds $0.8 trillion US dollars and I believe is vetoing Putin's use any nuclear weapons. It depends on exports. I think its strategy is to gradually increase and extend its power in a stable world. It is a formidable competitor but I don't think we should view it as the enemy as we do with Putin. It won't militarily attack Taiwan but will retain the aspiration of One China. It's a very long term strategy. A strategy that the West is incapable of.
We (the West) should compete vigorously with China in technology, trade and political influence. But we should also recognise that we have interests in common, namely world peace and the stability of a law based system and we should cooperate with China on that.
I hope there are behind the scenes conversations between China and the US on managing Putin. Perhaps on the Middle East.
There are many nations who don't value peace and the rule of law. I hope the US doesn't join them under President Trump. We'll then be looking to China to act as the world's policeman!
As for the rule of law, all they respect is the rule of the CCP. Everything else is just what they can get away with.
Many nations do what they can get away with within the framework of international law. Some ignore the framework altogether. China doesn't ignore it. It can see it is in its interest that there is a framework of international law.
The rule of the CCP in China is equivalent to the rule of the US in the US and the rule of the EU in the EU. It fits within the international framework but is locally dominant.
The world has build a precious thing in the international framework of law. It would be a pity if Trump destroys it. He is more likely to than the Chinese.
2 -
If Trump wins, and I think …..hope …… that’s by no means certain…… he’ll regard that as a mandate for whatever he wants to do.HYUFD said:
Even if Trump does win it will likely be with a small mandate and doesn't mean the US will suddenly become an enemy and pro Russia and China.PoodleInASlipstream said:
Trump 2.0 means the end of the world order as it has been since the 40s. NATO cannot survive if its biggest member effectively switches sides. Any nation with even the most flimsy territorial claim and sufficient military capability will know they will get away with using force.FrankBooth said:What would a Trump presidency mean? F*ck knows. But we should be taking his statements seriously. He's likely to abandon Ukraine and cosy up to Putin. This could destroy Nato and put us at odds with a US government in a way we haven't been for over 100 years. We're facing a major threat from the Axis of autocrats led by China and it's not clear the US President would be on our side.
And, yes, almost nobody in power is taking this seriously enough.
We are not prepared for a world where the US is an enemy. Where Ukraine falls and multiple EU members know they are next in line for Putin's meatgrinder. Where China makes a grab for Taiwan and causes a global economic meltdown.
This isn't even accounting for the not insignificant chance the US itself begins to come apart. If you are the US military command do you obey Trump's orders to abandon Ukraine and begin aiding Russia, or do you consider the unthinkable? Does the Governor of a liberal state acquiesce as Vance & co implement Project 2025, or does succession suddenly become the lest terrible course?
Lots of people are closing their eyes and hoping this doesn't happen. I hope they're not in for an unpleasant shock.
Trump is proposing massive tariffs on Chinese imports as well as EU imports for one and he did back Brexit unlike the Democrats.
Most likely he would try and force a deal between Putin and Zelensky in Ukraine but otherwise remain neutral1 -
Because I quite like SeanT, and although he deserves a thorough clobbering I'm sure I'd just let him off.Malmesbury said:
Why can’t you give it a like.Omnium said:
I can't give this a like, but it is very funnyMalmesbury said:
Ahemydoethur said:
Although we should remember 40% of all idiots on PB seem to share a space-time location with Sean Thomas.rcs1000 said:
Oh no, I see complete idiots on PB all the time, so I know they're out there.RHunt said:
I dont think you probably realise rcs mixing in the circles you do how absolutely stupid some people are. Upskilling them is for the birds. So what to do with them. The preferred solution in the uk is to let them rot on sink estates.rcs1000 said:It's a good header.
The issue - of course - is the fact that a lot of the cause of discontent comes from globalisation. And when I say globalisation, I mean the fact that people in other countries around the world can now do what was once the preserve of the West.
It used to be that we swapped expensive manufactured products (that only we knew how to make) for cheap commodities. And we were rich, and they were poor.
But now the rest of the world has learned how to make manufactured product. And we still need commodities. And people in other countries are prepared to work harder for less money than us.
The only way around this is a combination of upskilling and automation - but even where that happens, it means the destruction of skilled working class jobs. The people looking after those Kuka robots in Tesla factories (what few of them there are) aren't High School graduates.
The world is changing, and railing against that change and trying to use legislation to make coal cost competitive with natural gas and solar, will only make things worse. Because in trying to save one industry, you make others even less cost competitive.
Some countries - like Switzerland, Singapore or Norway - have navigated this better. And what they all have in common is that they are relatively open economies with absolutely top notch education systems. We - and the US - should learn from them.
The original film’s Sargent Major (completely ahistorical, by the way) is a classic of the calm delivery of bad news to management…0 -
Robinson now backs UKIPRHunt said:We shouldnt be complacent.
This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.
For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg80 -
Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.HYUFD said:
Robinson now backs UKIPRHunt said:We shouldnt be complacent.
This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.
For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg81 -
Yes, the UK has had stagnation for about 20 years and lots of people haven't gotten much wealthier, completely agree. But the UK hasnt (yet?) voted in Reform (who got about 15% of the vote). The three main parties got about 70% of the vote.Malmesbury said:
I’m talking about the U.K.rkrkrk said:
Donald Trump is going to get a minimum of 45% of the vote. You talk as if the poorest 10% are swinging it for him.Malmesbury said:
That comes of not breaking down stats enough. Have you not noticed the left behind areas in this country?rkrkrk said:
I don't think the stats bear that out. The poorest in society have gotten much richer in say the last 50 years. In the US, median wages basically rise every year yet their politics is pretty extreme.Malmesbury said:
I don’t think it necessarily means that.FF43 said:
I don't understand this much and casually repeated argument: The good guys are to blame for the bad guys being bad.Andy_JS said:
Trump is a warning to democracies everywhere of what you get if mainstream politicians ignore the legitimate concerns of a large segment of the population. Between 2000 and 2015 life was getting worse for a lot of Americans but almost the entire political class ignored it because it suited them to believe that because everything was going quite well for them it must also be going well for everyone else.kinabalu said:
Yep. And win or lose he'll get a big vote on Nov 5th for various reasons. To list a few:bondegezou said:
Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.moonshine said:
Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).bondegezou said:
a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.Casino_Royale said:Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.
We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.
So, why?
b. Racism is popular.
Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
He's the GOP candidate. Loads of people always vote GOP.
He's a skilful exploiter of ignorance and resentment.
He's charismatic and has built a massive energetic loyal cult (MAGA).
Most Americans don't feel better off despite what the stats say.
It might be enough. I don't think so but my instincts could be wrong. Soon find out anyway.
Economic prosperity both in the UK and US became segmented, especially in the last 2-3 decades
I did very well. Pay rises, lots of work etc.
At the same time a lot of people saw actual wage decreases. Many services and goods became cheaper as a result. For me and those like me - awesome.
So carpeting a flat went from £1600 in 1998 to £700 (same flat) in 2019. Yay for me. For the people in the carpet business?
People like me didn’t sit around a table planning to kick carpet fitters where it hurts. But they got hurt.
The UK has had a period of poor performance over last 20 years, and yet we have returned to the 'centre', with the Lib Dems and Labour both having their best election results in aged.
The main parties are not popular. And people are wondering what comes next after that.
He's not drawing support solely from the left behind who do exist, but in any case are generally much better off than they were 20-30 years ago).
There are chunks of the population who have seen a decline in living standards. Most of their money going in rent doesn’t help.
A friend, classic educated, but not credentialed working class, saw successive jobs reduced to minimum wage. In the end, left for Australia.
Why do you think the two big parties are not popular and Nigel Fucking Farage and his clownshow* are up there?
On the subject of the US - MAGA is a coalition like any other potential winning group. Try reading some of the reasons the poorer voters are voting his way.
*Autoincorrect tried to render this as “clown ship”. For some reason I like that.
And the reform voters are largely older people, who actually have seen their economic position protected.
Your economics-driven theory just doesn't match the results in my view.
To put it crudely -> US economy doing great, rising median wages etc. -> they have ~50% voting for anti-immigrant, blow up the system candidate.
UK economy doing terribly, stagnant wages -> they are largely voting for centrist parties.0 -
Labour and the Tories are already neck and neck in at least one poll, that is rather complacent. Though yes LD voters may stay LD absent a One Nation Tory leader but Labour voters can certainly swing back blue if they voted for Boris before or go ReformMoonRabbit said:
And along came “cosplay Thatcher” whose very first answer she gave at her PMQ’s - no, we won’t introduce a Windfall Tax. Only Labour put up taxes.MoonRabbit said:
Does our monarch rule over one nation, or two nations - the rich and the poor?TheScreamingEagles said:Just partook in a YouGov poll of Tory members.
One the supplementaties it asked me to define what One Nation Toryism means.
I feel sorry for the YouGov person who has to read HYUFD's response to that question.
I also had to say whether which Tory politicians were One Nation Tories or not.
Toryism was always at its best when seeing more than one nation, and taking action to make it whole.
And one of the most perfect examples - probably the very stuff that made you such a vocal Thatcherite, TSE - Lady Thatcher waving away the bleating Oil Companies and Banks in the early eighties recession, to Windfall Tax them so budgets could put financial help into the households of the struggling working classes.
That suggests she would struggle to explain what One Nation Conservatism is, and how it produced a century and half of electoral dominance.
She was replaced by a Prime Minister whose idea of assistance programme with energy bills, included giving himself tax payers money to help heat his mansions indoor pool through the crisis.
Did he ever in his political career see Two Nations - the rich and the poor?
There’s no reason for for PB Tories to sound so chipper in recent months, laughing at Starmer’s first hundred days. Going into the next election, not only is the electoral arithmetic abysmal for the Conservatives, but the narrative of how badly they lost their way in government will play for a long long time - like the “Winter of Discontent” narrative played at all 80’s and 90’s elections. Yes, easy to skim froth off top Labours majority, but further down, where seats needed for return to government, once lifelong voting Tories lost over “One Nation” and Brexit, likely stay with Lib Dem’s and Labour for the rest of their lives. 😕0 -
I just hope the government is properly prepared for a Trump presidency. Particularly the MoD, FO and No.10. It may mean publicly disagreeing with US policy in a way we aren't used to. It doesn't help that Lammy was highly critical of Trump going back. No doubt that is what Farage will highlight as Trump's batman and hopefully Badenoch (as LOTO?) gives him short shrift. She has talked about the axis of autocracy so that will help.HYUFD said:
Even if Trump does win it will likely be with a small mandate and doesn't mean the US will suddenly become an enemy and pro Russia and China.PoodleInASlipstream said:
Trump 2.0 means the end of the world order as it has been since the 40s. NATO cannot survive if its biggest member effectively switches sides. Any nation with even the most flimsy territorial claim and sufficient military capability will know they will get away with using force.FrankBooth said:What would a Trump presidency mean? F*ck knows. But we should be taking his statements seriously. He's likely to abandon Ukraine and cosy up to Putin. This could destroy Nato and put us at odds with a US government in a way we haven't been for over 100 years. We're facing a major threat from the Axis of autocrats led by China and it's not clear the US President would be on our side.
And, yes, almost nobody in power is taking this seriously enough.
We are not prepared for a world where the US is an enemy. Where Ukraine falls and multiple EU members know they are next in line for Putin's meatgrinder. Where China makes a grab for Taiwan and causes a global economic meltdown.
This isn't even accounting for the not insignificant chance the US itself begins to come apart. If you are the US military command do you obey Trump's orders to abandon Ukraine and begin aiding Russia, or do you consider the unthinkable? Does the Governor of a liberal state acquiesce as Vance & co implement Project 2025, or does succession suddenly become the lest terrible course?
Lots of people are closing their eyes and hoping this doesn't happen. I hope they're not in for an unpleasant shock.
Trump is proposing massive tariffs on Chinese imports as well as EU imports for one and he did back Brexit unlike the Democrats.
Most likely he would try and force a deal between Putin and Zelensky in Ukraine but otherwise remain neutral2 -
Indeed but we subscribed to Disney+ just to watch it and it is great fun, also a good cast too with the likes of David Tennant, Aiden Turner, Danny Dyer etc. Certainly better than many of the BBC comedy dramas now onStereodog said:Completely off topic but I'm loving the fact that viewers of the big new Rivals adaptation have to develop a knowledge of the intricacies of ITV regional franchises in order to understand the booking
0 -
Of course there's a point here but it's overdone. In many ways it is not the economy, stupid. The likes of Farage get lots of support from people who are not poor and most people who are poor do not support xenophobic, simple simon politics.Malmesbury said:
I’m talking about the U.K.rkrkrk said:
Donald Trump is going to get a minimum of 45% of the vote. You talk as if the poorest 10% are swinging it for him.Malmesbury said:
That comes of not breaking down stats enough. Have you not noticed the left behind areas in this country?rkrkrk said:
I don't think the stats bear that out. The poorest in society have gotten much richer in say the last 50 years. In the US, median wages basically rise every year yet their politics is pretty extreme.Malmesbury said:
I don’t think it necessarily means that.FF43 said:
I don't understand this much and casually repeated argument: The good guys are to blame for the bad guys being bad.Andy_JS said:
Trump is a warning to democracies everywhere of what you get if mainstream politicians ignore the legitimate concerns of a large segment of the population. Between 2000 and 2015 life was getting worse for a lot of Americans but almost the entire political class ignored it because it suited them to believe that because everything was going quite well for them it must also be going well for everyone else.kinabalu said:
Yep. And win or lose he'll get a big vote on Nov 5th for various reasons. To list a few:bondegezou said:
Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.moonshine said:
Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).bondegezou said:
a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.Casino_Royale said:Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.
We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.
So, why?
b. Racism is popular.
Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
He's the GOP candidate. Loads of people always vote GOP.
He's a skilful exploiter of ignorance and resentment.
He's charismatic and has built a massive energetic loyal cult (MAGA).
Most Americans don't feel better off despite what the stats say.
It might be enough. I don't think so but my instincts could be wrong. Soon find out anyway.
Economic prosperity both in the UK and US became segmented, especially in the last 2-3 decades
I did very well. Pay rises, lots of work etc.
At the same time a lot of people saw actual wage decreases. Many services and goods became cheaper as a result. For me and those like me - awesome.
So carpeting a flat went from £1600 in 1998 to £700 (same flat) in 2019. Yay for me. For the people in the carpet business?
People like me didn’t sit around a table planning to kick carpet fitters where it hurts. But they got hurt.
The UK has had a period of poor performance over last 20 years, and yet we have returned to the 'centre', with the Lib Dems and Labour both having their best election results in aged.
The main parties are not popular. And people are wondering what comes next after that.
He's not drawing support solely from the left behind who do exist, but in any case are generally much better off than they were 20-30 years ago).
There are chunks of the population who have seen a decline in living standards. Most of their money going in rent doesn’t help.
A friend, classic educated, but not credentialed working class, saw successive jobs reduced to minimum wage. In the end, left for Australia.
Why do you think the two big parties are not popular and Nigel Fucking Farage and his clownshow* are up there?
On the subject of the US - MAGA is a coalition like any other potential winning group. Try reading some of the reasons the poorer voters are voting his way.
*Autoincorrect tried to render this as “clown ship”. For some reason I like that.
As for this forever telling people to "try reading" xyz ... any chance of dropping that?0 -
I think you make a good challenge RE economic issues not being enough on their own to account for Trump's popularity, but I would make two observations:rkrkrk said:
Yes, the UK has had stagnation for about 20 years and lots of people haven't gotten much wealthier, completely agree. But the UK hasnt (yet?) voted in Reform (who got about 15% of the vote). The three main parties got about 70% of the vote.Malmesbury said:
I’m talking about the U.K.rkrkrk said:
Donald Trump is going to get a minimum of 45% of the vote. You talk as if the poorest 10% are swinging it for him.Malmesbury said:
That comes of not breaking down stats enough. Have you not noticed the left behind areas in this country?rkrkrk said:
I don't think the stats bear that out. The poorest in society have gotten much richer in say the last 50 years. In the US, median wages basically rise every year yet their politics is pretty extreme.Malmesbury said:
I don’t think it necessarily means that.FF43 said:
I don't understand this much and casually repeated argument: The good guys are to blame for the bad guys being bad.Andy_JS said:
Trump is a warning to democracies everywhere of what you get if mainstream politicians ignore the legitimate concerns of a large segment of the population. Between 2000 and 2015 life was getting worse for a lot of Americans but almost the entire political class ignored it because it suited them to believe that because everything was going quite well for them it must also be going well for everyone else.kinabalu said:
Yep. And win or lose he'll get a big vote on Nov 5th for various reasons. To list a few:bondegezou said:
Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.moonshine said:
Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).bondegezou said:
a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.Casino_Royale said:Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.
We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.
So, why?
b. Racism is popular.
Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
He's the GOP candidate. Loads of people always vote GOP.
He's a skilful exploiter of ignorance and resentment.
He's charismatic and has built a massive energetic loyal cult (MAGA).
Most Americans don't feel better off despite what the stats say.
It might be enough. I don't think so but my instincts could be wrong. Soon find out anyway.
Economic prosperity both in the UK and US became segmented, especially in the last 2-3 decades
I did very well. Pay rises, lots of work etc.
At the same time a lot of people saw actual wage decreases. Many services and goods became cheaper as a result. For me and those like me - awesome.
So carpeting a flat went from £1600 in 1998 to £700 (same flat) in 2019. Yay for me. For the people in the carpet business?
People like me didn’t sit around a table planning to kick carpet fitters where it hurts. But they got hurt.
The UK has had a period of poor performance over last 20 years, and yet we have returned to the 'centre', with the Lib Dems and Labour both having their best election results in aged.
The main parties are not popular. And people are wondering what comes next after that.
He's not drawing support solely from the left behind who do exist, but in any case are generally much better off than they were 20-30 years ago).
There are chunks of the population who have seen a decline in living standards. Most of their money going in rent doesn’t help.
A friend, classic educated, but not credentialed working class, saw successive jobs reduced to minimum wage. In the end, left for Australia.
Why do you think the two big parties are not popular and Nigel Fucking Farage and his clownshow* are up there?
On the subject of the US - MAGA is a coalition like any other potential winning group. Try reading some of the reasons the poorer voters are voting his way.
*Autoincorrect tried to render this as “clown ship”. For some reason I like that.
And the reform voters are largely older people, who actually have seen their economic position protected.
Your economics-driven theory just doesn't match the results in my view.
To put it crudely -> US economy doing great, rising median wages etc. -> they have ~50% voting for anti-immigrant, blow up the system candidate.
UK economy doing terribly, stagnant wages -> they are largely voting for centrist parties.
1. Maybe Brexit was our equivalent of voting for Trump for a while? Now it's clear the promised sunny uplands of post-Brexit UK were a mirage, those disgruntled with the current system might start to look elsewhere.
2. Your (yet?) is, I think, key. If Labour underperform in this parliament, can you really see a Jenrick- or Badenoch-led Tory party sweeping back into power one term after the utter clown show of the recent Tory government? And if not the Tories back, what flavour of government will we get? I'll wager neither you nor I will like it much.2 -
Populist right Badenoch/Jenrick Tories + Reform will likely combined have more than the centrist Starmer Labour and LD vote combined soon and already the Tories and Reform combined have comfortably more than Labour. Even if Labour + LDs + Greens have more overall but then the Greens are more Corbynite than centristrkrkrk said:
Yes, the UK has had stagnation for about 20 years and lots of people haven't gotten much wealthier, completely agree. But the UK hasnt (yet?) voted in Reform (who got about 15% of the vote). The three main parties got about 70% of the vote.Malmesbury said:
I’m talking about the U.K.rkrkrk said:
Donald Trump is going to get a minimum of 45% of the vote. You talk as if the poorest 10% are swinging it for him.Malmesbury said:
That comes of not breaking down stats enough. Have you not noticed the left behind areas in this country?rkrkrk said:
I don't think the stats bear that out. The poorest in society have gotten much richer in say the last 50 years. In the US, median wages basically rise every year yet their politics is pretty extreme.Malmesbury said:
I don’t think it necessarily means that.FF43 said:
I don't understand this much and casually repeated argument: The good guys are to blame for the bad guys being bad.Andy_JS said:
Trump is a warning to democracies everywhere of what you get if mainstream politicians ignore the legitimate concerns of a large segment of the population. Between 2000 and 2015 life was getting worse for a lot of Americans but almost the entire political class ignored it because it suited them to believe that because everything was going quite well for them it must also be going well for everyone else.kinabalu said:
Yep. And win or lose he'll get a big vote on Nov 5th for various reasons. To list a few:bondegezou said:
Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.moonshine said:
Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).bondegezou said:
a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.Casino_Royale said:Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.
We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.
So, why?
b. Racism is popular.
Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
He's the GOP candidate. Loads of people always vote GOP.
He's a skilful exploiter of ignorance and resentment.
He's charismatic and has built a massive energetic loyal cult (MAGA).
Most Americans don't feel better off despite what the stats say.
It might be enough. I don't think so but my instincts could be wrong. Soon find out anyway.
Economic prosperity both in the UK and US became segmented, especially in the last 2-3 decades
I did very well. Pay rises, lots of work etc.
At the same time a lot of people saw actual wage decreases. Many services and goods became cheaper as a result. For me and those like me - awesome.
So carpeting a flat went from £1600 in 1998 to £700 (same flat) in 2019. Yay for me. For the people in the carpet business?
People like me didn’t sit around a table planning to kick carpet fitters where it hurts. But they got hurt.
The UK has had a period of poor performance over last 20 years, and yet we have returned to the 'centre', with the Lib Dems and Labour both having their best election results in aged.
The main parties are not popular. And people are wondering what comes next after that.
He's not drawing support solely from the left behind who do exist, but in any case are generally much better off than they were 20-30 years ago).
There are chunks of the population who have seen a decline in living standards. Most of their money going in rent doesn’t help.
A friend, classic educated, but not credentialed working class, saw successive jobs reduced to minimum wage. In the end, left for Australia.
Why do you think the two big parties are not popular and Nigel Fucking Farage and his clownshow* are up there?
On the subject of the US - MAGA is a coalition like any other potential winning group. Try reading some of the reasons the poorer voters are voting his way.
*Autoincorrect tried to render this as “clown ship”. For some reason I like that.
And the reform voters are largely older people, who actually have seen their economic position protected.
Your economics-driven theory just doesn't match the results in my view.
To put it crudely -> US economy doing great, rising median wages etc. -> they have ~50% voting for anti-immigrant, blow up the system candidate.
UK economy doing terribly, stagnant wages -> they are largely voting for centrist parties.0 -
it still stands candidates post FarageOldKingCole said:
Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.HYUFD said:
Robinson now backs UKIPRHunt said:We shouldnt be complacent.
This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.
For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg80 -
Great - and you have the poison horrible rubbish party in charge.HYUFD said:
Populist right Badenoch/Jenrick Tories + Reform will likely combined have more than the centrist Starmer Labour and LD vote combined soon and already the Tories and Reform combined have comfortably more than Labour. Even if Labour + LDs + Greens have more overall but then the Greens are more Corbynite than centristrkrkrk said:
Yes, the UK has had stagnation for about 20 years and lots of people haven't gotten much wealthier, completely agree. But the UK hasnt (yet?) voted in Reform (who got about 15% of the vote). The three main parties got about 70% of the vote.Malmesbury said:
I’m talking about the U.K.rkrkrk said:
Donald Trump is going to get a minimum of 45% of the vote. You talk as if the poorest 10% are swinging it for him.Malmesbury said:
That comes of not breaking down stats enough. Have you not noticed the left behind areas in this country?rkrkrk said:
I don't think the stats bear that out. The poorest in society have gotten much richer in say the last 50 years. In the US, median wages basically rise every year yet their politics is pretty extreme.Malmesbury said:
I don’t think it necessarily means that.FF43 said:
I don't understand this much and casually repeated argument: The good guys are to blame for the bad guys being bad.Andy_JS said:
Trump is a warning to democracies everywhere of what you get if mainstream politicians ignore the legitimate concerns of a large segment of the population. Between 2000 and 2015 life was getting worse for a lot of Americans but almost the entire political class ignored it because it suited them to believe that because everything was going quite well for them it must also be going well for everyone else.kinabalu said:
Yep. And win or lose he'll get a big vote on Nov 5th for various reasons. To list a few:bondegezou said:
Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.moonshine said:
Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).bondegezou said:
a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.Casino_Royale said:Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.
We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.
So, why?
b. Racism is popular.
Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
He's the GOP candidate. Loads of people always vote GOP.
He's a skilful exploiter of ignorance and resentment.
He's charismatic and has built a massive energetic loyal cult (MAGA).
Most Americans don't feel better off despite what the stats say.
It might be enough. I don't think so but my instincts could be wrong. Soon find out anyway.
Economic prosperity both in the UK and US became segmented, especially in the last 2-3 decades
I did very well. Pay rises, lots of work etc.
At the same time a lot of people saw actual wage decreases. Many services and goods became cheaper as a result. For me and those like me - awesome.
So carpeting a flat went from £1600 in 1998 to £700 (same flat) in 2019. Yay for me. For the people in the carpet business?
People like me didn’t sit around a table planning to kick carpet fitters where it hurts. But they got hurt.
The UK has had a period of poor performance over last 20 years, and yet we have returned to the 'centre', with the Lib Dems and Labour both having their best election results in aged.
The main parties are not popular. And people are wondering what comes next after that.
He's not drawing support solely from the left behind who do exist, but in any case are generally much better off than they were 20-30 years ago).
There are chunks of the population who have seen a decline in living standards. Most of their money going in rent doesn’t help.
A friend, classic educated, but not credentialed working class, saw successive jobs reduced to minimum wage. In the end, left for Australia.
Why do you think the two big parties are not popular and Nigel Fucking Farage and his clownshow* are up there?
On the subject of the US - MAGA is a coalition like any other potential winning group. Try reading some of the reasons the poorer voters are voting his way.
*Autoincorrect tried to render this as “clown ship”. For some reason I like that.
And the reform voters are largely older people, who actually have seen their economic position protected.
Your economics-driven theory just doesn't match the results in my view.
To put it crudely -> US economy doing great, rising median wages etc. -> they have ~50% voting for anti-immigrant, blow up the system candidate.
UK economy doing terribly, stagnant wages -> they are largely voting for centrist parties.
I'd prefer some sense, and I'd prefer that sense to be of the Tory ilk.
It seems you don't in your crusade. Perhaps you do? You're very off-field as to the sensible so far as I can see.0 -
But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.HYUFD said:
it still stands candidates post FarageOldKingCole said:
Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.HYUFD said:
Robinson now backs UKIPRHunt said:We shouldnt be complacent.
This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.
For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg81 -
I'm not sure what UKIP would be described as now, apart from maybe "Right Wing Populist", but that is where Reform have carpetbagged a lot of their slogans from - such as "People's Army", "Common Sense". The LeeanderthaI man constantly spouts those all over Ashfield.HYUFD said:
Robinson now backs UKIPRHunt said:We shouldnt be complacent.
This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.
For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
I don't know much history about their main leaders.
Reform have not, as far as I am aware, started using "LibLabCon" yet (remember that one?).
I can't see that they have any elected politicians at Local Councillor level or above. Which is less than Reform (27 at last check) and even more less than the Ashfield Independents (42).1 -
They will certainly use Robinson's support to try and bring back some of the white working class Leaver vote from Farage and ReformOldKingCole said:
But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.HYUFD said:
it still stands candidates post FarageOldKingCole said:
Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.HYUFD said:
Robinson now backs UKIPRHunt said:We shouldnt be complacent.
This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.
For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg80 -
See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.OldKingCole said:
But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.HYUFD said:
it still stands candidates post FarageOldKingCole said:
Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.HYUFD said:
Robinson now backs UKIPRHunt said:We shouldnt be complacent.
This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.
For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg80 -
Far less in fact - the SDP (now very different of course) somehow stood over 120 candidates to UKIP's 24 at the General Election and even put out a (quite barmy) manifesto.OldKingCole said:
Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.HYUFD said:
Robinson now backs UKIPRHunt said:We shouldnt be complacent.
This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.
For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg80 -
I dont think the us economy is that great when you look at the cost of living over there. Food prices are much higher for example.rkrkrk said:
Yes, the UK has had stagnation for about 20 years and lots of people haven't gotten much wealthier, completely agree. But the UK hasnt (yet?) voted in Reform (who got about 15% of the vote). The three main parties got about 70% of the vote.Malmesbury said:
I’m talking about the U.K.rkrkrk said:
Donald Trump is going to get a minimum of 45% of the vote. You talk as if the poorest 10% are swinging it for him.Malmesbury said:
That comes of not breaking down stats enough. Have you not noticed the left behind areas in this country?rkrkrk said:
I don't think the stats bear that out. The poorest in society have gotten much richer in say the last 50 years. In the US, median wages basically rise every year yet their politics is pretty extreme.Malmesbury said:
I don’t think it necessarily means that.FF43 said:
I don't understand this much and casually repeated argument: The good guys are to blame for the bad guys being bad.Andy_JS said:
Trump is a warning to democracies everywhere of what you get if mainstream politicians ignore the legitimate concerns of a large segment of the population. Between 2000 and 2015 life was getting worse for a lot of Americans but almost the entire political class ignored it because it suited them to believe that because everything was going quite well for them it must also be going well for everyone else.kinabalu said:
Yep. And win or lose he'll get a big vote on Nov 5th for various reasons. To list a few:bondegezou said:
Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.moonshine said:
Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).bondegezou said:
a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.Casino_Royale said:Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.
We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.
So, why?
b. Racism is popular.
Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
He's the GOP candidate. Loads of people always vote GOP.
He's a skilful exploiter of ignorance and resentment.
He's charismatic and has built a massive energetic loyal cult (MAGA).
Most Americans don't feel better off despite what the stats say.
It might be enough. I don't think so but my instincts could be wrong. Soon find out anyway.
Economic prosperity both in the UK and US became segmented, especially in the last 2-3 decades
I did very well. Pay rises, lots of work etc.
At the same time a lot of people saw actual wage decreases. Many services and goods became cheaper as a result. For me and those like me - awesome.
So carpeting a flat went from £1600 in 1998 to £700 (same flat) in 2019. Yay for me. For the people in the carpet business?
People like me didn’t sit around a table planning to kick carpet fitters where it hurts. But they got hurt.
The UK has had a period of poor performance over last 20 years, and yet we have returned to the 'centre', with the Lib Dems and Labour both having their best election results in aged.
The main parties are not popular. And people are wondering what comes next after that.
He's not drawing support solely from the left behind who do exist, but in any case are generally much better off than they were 20-30 years ago).
There are chunks of the population who have seen a decline in living standards. Most of their money going in rent doesn’t help.
A friend, classic educated, but not credentialed working class, saw successive jobs reduced to minimum wage. In the end, left for Australia.
Why do you think the two big parties are not popular and Nigel Fucking Farage and his clownshow* are up there?
On the subject of the US - MAGA is a coalition like any other potential winning group. Try reading some of the reasons the poorer voters are voting his way.
*Autoincorrect tried to render this as “clown ship”. For some reason I like that.
And the reform voters are largely older people, who actually have seen their economic position protected.
Your economics-driven theory just doesn't match the results in my view.
To put it crudely -> US economy doing great, rising median wages etc. -> they have ~50% voting for anti-immigrant, blow up the system candidate.
UK economy doing terribly, stagnant wages -> they are largely voting for centrist parties.0 -
Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etcMattW said:
See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.OldKingCole said:
But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.HYUFD said:
it still stands candidates post FarageOldKingCole said:
Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.HYUFD said:
Robinson now backs UKIPRHunt said:We shouldnt be complacent.
This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.
For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg81 -
TBH you lost me when you introduced random sub clauses into English grammar.ydoethur said:
There is a difference between sequiturs and secateurs. I don’t think you’ve twigged that yet.MoonRabbit said:
The “sequiturs” so “useful” on the garden hedging?ydoethur said:
Well, it’s less serious than creating random subclauses. Or non-sequiturs.MoonRabbit said:
Subordinate clauses, I thought they all worked for Father Christmas.
1 -
Well no its more a cultural issue. England is now only 75% white british and many people are worried about becoming minority status. Thats whats driving this.kinabalu said:
Of course there's a point here but it's overdone. In many ways it is not the economy, stupid. The likes of Farage get lots of support from people who are not poor and most people who are poor do not support xenophobic, simple simon politics.Malmesbury said:
I’m talking about the U.K.rkrkrk said:
Donald Trump is going to get a minimum of 45% of the vote. You talk as if the poorest 10% are swinging it for him.Malmesbury said:
That comes of not breaking down stats enough. Have you not noticed the left behind areas in this country?rkrkrk said:
I don't think the stats bear that out. The poorest in society have gotten much richer in say the last 50 years. In the US, median wages basically rise every year yet their politics is pretty extreme.Malmesbury said:
I don’t think it necessarily means that.FF43 said:
I don't understand this much and casually repeated argument: The good guys are to blame for the bad guys being bad.Andy_JS said:
Trump is a warning to democracies everywhere of what you get if mainstream politicians ignore the legitimate concerns of a large segment of the population. Between 2000 and 2015 life was getting worse for a lot of Americans but almost the entire political class ignored it because it suited them to believe that because everything was going quite well for them it must also be going well for everyone else.kinabalu said:
Yep. And win or lose he'll get a big vote on Nov 5th for various reasons. To list a few:bondegezou said:
Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.moonshine said:
Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).bondegezou said:
a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.Casino_Royale said:Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.
We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.
So, why?
b. Racism is popular.
Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
He's the GOP candidate. Loads of people always vote GOP.
He's a skilful exploiter of ignorance and resentment.
He's charismatic and has built a massive energetic loyal cult (MAGA).
Most Americans don't feel better off despite what the stats say.
It might be enough. I don't think so but my instincts could be wrong. Soon find out anyway.
Economic prosperity both in the UK and US became segmented, especially in the last 2-3 decades
I did very well. Pay rises, lots of work etc.
At the same time a lot of people saw actual wage decreases. Many services and goods became cheaper as a result. For me and those like me - awesome.
So carpeting a flat went from £1600 in 1998 to £700 (same flat) in 2019. Yay for me. For the people in the carpet business?
People like me didn’t sit around a table planning to kick carpet fitters where it hurts. But they got hurt.
The UK has had a period of poor performance over last 20 years, and yet we have returned to the 'centre', with the Lib Dems and Labour both having their best election results in aged.
The main parties are not popular. And people are wondering what comes next after that.
He's not drawing support solely from the left behind who do exist, but in any case are generally much better off than they were 20-30 years ago).
There are chunks of the population who have seen a decline in living standards. Most of their money going in rent doesn’t help.
A friend, classic educated, but not credentialed working class, saw successive jobs reduced to minimum wage. In the end, left for Australia.
Why do you think the two big parties are not popular and Nigel Fucking Farage and his clownshow* are up there?
On the subject of the US - MAGA is a coalition like any other potential winning group. Try reading some of the reasons the poorer voters are voting his way.
*Autoincorrect tried to render this as “clown ship”. For some reason I like that.
As for this forever telling people to "try reading" xyz ... any chance of dropping that?0 -
Trump has cancelled his NRA love-in - to go to a Latino event.
In Florida.
Word is the Republicans are worried the anti-Haitian comments are playing VERY badly there. And there are 500,000 Haitians in the state - the largest concentration in the whole US.
Be so funny if "They are eating the dogs. They are eating the cats..." cost him Florida - and its 30 EC votes. Damn near the same as Arizona, Minnesota and Wisconsin with their 31 combined.3 -
Ah come on, Hamas are an unpleasant organisation, but comparing them to Trump is going too far....
That's a joke (hopefully obviously). I agree with the analogy. Obviously the scale of the two situations is completely different, considering the horrors that have been happening to the people of Palestine and (to a lesser extent) Lebanon and Israel. However, I think it's silly to be offended by analogies across different scales. If there's a weakness in the analogy it's that Harris et al. have at least tried to keep some moral high ground, albeit not in a way that shows any empathy for people who are tempted to vote for Trump.0 -
It’s the Haitians stealing all our capital letters that we really worry about.RHunt said:
Well no its more a cultural issue. England is now only 75% white british and many people are worried about becoming minority status. Thats whats driving this.kinabalu said:
Of course there's a point here but it's overdone. In many ways it is not the economy, stupid. The likes of Farage get lots of support from people who are not poor and most people who are poor do not support xenophobic, simple simon politics.Malmesbury said:
I’m talking about the U.K.rkrkrk said:
Donald Trump is going to get a minimum of 45% of the vote. You talk as if the poorest 10% are swinging it for him.Malmesbury said:
That comes of not breaking down stats enough. Have you not noticed the left behind areas in this country?rkrkrk said:
I don't think the stats bear that out. The poorest in society have gotten much richer in say the last 50 years. In the US, median wages basically rise every year yet their politics is pretty extreme.Malmesbury said:
I don’t think it necessarily means that.FF43 said:
I don't understand this much and casually repeated argument: The good guys are to blame for the bad guys being bad.Andy_JS said:
Trump is a warning to democracies everywhere of what you get if mainstream politicians ignore the legitimate concerns of a large segment of the population. Between 2000 and 2015 life was getting worse for a lot of Americans but almost the entire political class ignored it because it suited them to believe that because everything was going quite well for them it must also be going well for everyone else.kinabalu said:
Yep. And win or lose he'll get a big vote on Nov 5th for various reasons. To list a few:bondegezou said:
Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.moonshine said:
Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).bondegezou said:
a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.Casino_Royale said:Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.
We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.
So, why?
b. Racism is popular.
Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
He's the GOP candidate. Loads of people always vote GOP.
He's a skilful exploiter of ignorance and resentment.
He's charismatic and has built a massive energetic loyal cult (MAGA).
Most Americans don't feel better off despite what the stats say.
It might be enough. I don't think so but my instincts could be wrong. Soon find out anyway.
Economic prosperity both in the UK and US became segmented, especially in the last 2-3 decades
I did very well. Pay rises, lots of work etc.
At the same time a lot of people saw actual wage decreases. Many services and goods became cheaper as a result. For me and those like me - awesome.
So carpeting a flat went from £1600 in 1998 to £700 (same flat) in 2019. Yay for me. For the people in the carpet business?
People like me didn’t sit around a table planning to kick carpet fitters where it hurts. But they got hurt.
The UK has had a period of poor performance over last 20 years, and yet we have returned to the 'centre', with the Lib Dems and Labour both having their best election results in aged.
The main parties are not popular. And people are wondering what comes next after that.
He's not drawing support solely from the left behind who do exist, but in any case are generally much better off than they were 20-30 years ago).
There are chunks of the population who have seen a decline in living standards. Most of their money going in rent doesn’t help.
A friend, classic educated, but not credentialed working class, saw successive jobs reduced to minimum wage. In the end, left for Australia.
Why do you think the two big parties are not popular and Nigel Fucking Farage and his clownshow* are up there?
On the subject of the US - MAGA is a coalition like any other potential winning group. Try reading some of the reasons the poorer voters are voting his way.
*Autoincorrect tried to render this as “clown ship”. For some reason I like that.
As for this forever telling people to "try reading" xyz ... any chance of dropping that?5 -
They used to, but now they have resigned.MoonRabbit said:
TBH you lost me when you introduced random sub clauses into English grammar.ydoethur said:
There is a difference between sequiturs and secateurs. I don’t think you’ve twigged that yet.MoonRabbit said:
The “sequiturs” so “useful” on the garden hedging?ydoethur said:
Well, it’s less serious than creating random subclauses. Or non-sequiturs.MoonRabbit said:
Subordinate clauses, I thought they all worked for Father Christmas.
They didn't like being put on zero ho-ho-hos contracts.3 -
I have always found life easy , through poverty and riches. people nowadays are snowflake ***kers. Life is what you make it not how much cash you have.Casino_Royale said:
I think live was relatively easy and good from 2000-2005. Much more so than now.Malmesbury said:
I don’t think it necessarily means that.FF43 said:
I don't understand this much and casually repeated argument: The good guys are to blame for the bad guys being bad.Andy_JS said:
Trump is a warning to democracies everywhere of what you get if mainstream politicians ignore the legitimate concerns of a large segment of the population. Between 2000 and 2015 life was getting worse for a lot of Americans but almost the entire political class ignored it because it suited them to believe that because everything was going quite well for them it must also be going well for everyone else.kinabalu said:
Yep. And win or lose he'll get a big vote on Nov 5th for various reasons. To list a few:bondegezou said:
Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.moonshine said:
Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).bondegezou said:
a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.Casino_Royale said:Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.
We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.
So, why?
b. Racism is popular.
Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
He's the GOP candidate. Loads of people always vote GOP.
He's a skilful exploiter of ignorance and resentment.
He's charismatic and has built a massive energetic loyal cult (MAGA).
Most Americans don't feel better off despite what the stats say.
It might be enough. I don't think so but my instincts could be wrong. Soon find out anyway.
Economic prosperity both in the UK and US became segmented, especially in the last 2-3 decades
I did very well. Pay rises, lots of work etc.
At the same time a lot of people saw actual wage decreases. Many services and goods became cheaper as a result. For me and those like me - awesome.
So carpeting a flat went from £1600 in 1998 to £700 (same flat) in 2019. Yay for me. For the people in the carpet business?
People like me didn’t sit around a table planning to kick carpet fitters where it hurts. But they got hurt.
It explains why Blair did so well for so long.
Though abject poverty would be an exception I imagine.0 -
.
Yes, the idea that Trump would accept a "small mandate" is pretty funny.OldKingCole said:
If Trump wins, and I think …..hope …… that’s by no means certain…… he’ll regard that as a mandate for whatever he wants to do.HYUFD said:
Even if Trump does win it will likely be with a small mandate and doesn't mean the US will suddenly become an enemy and pro Russia and China.PoodleInASlipstream said:
Trump 2.0 means the end of the world order as it has been since the 40s. NATO cannot survive if its biggest member effectively switches sides. Any nation with even the most flimsy territorial claim and sufficient military capability will know they will get away with using force.FrankBooth said:What would a Trump presidency mean? F*ck knows. But we should be taking his statements seriously. He's likely to abandon Ukraine and cosy up to Putin. This could destroy Nato and put us at odds with a US government in a way we haven't been for over 100 years. We're facing a major threat from the Axis of autocrats led by China and it's not clear the US President would be on our side.
And, yes, almost nobody in power is taking this seriously enough.
We are not prepared for a world where the US is an enemy. Where Ukraine falls and multiple EU members know they are next in line for Putin's meatgrinder. Where China makes a grab for Taiwan and causes a global economic meltdown.
This isn't even accounting for the not insignificant chance the US itself begins to come apart. If you are the US military command do you obey Trump's orders to abandon Ukraine and begin aiding Russia, or do you consider the unthinkable? Does the Governor of a liberal state acquiesce as Vance & co implement Project 2025, or does succession suddenly become the lest terrible course?
Lots of people are closing their eyes and hoping this doesn't happen. I hope they're not in for an unpleasant shock.
Trump is proposing massive tariffs on Chinese imports as well as EU imports for one and he did back Brexit unlike the Democrats.
Most likely he would try and force a deal between Putin and Zelensky in Ukraine but otherwise remain neutral1 -
That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.HYUFD said:
Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etcMattW said:
See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.OldKingCole said:
But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.HYUFD said:
it still stands candidates post FarageOldKingCole said:
Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.HYUFD said:
Robinson now backs UKIPRHunt said:We shouldnt be complacent.
This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.
For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.
(There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
1 -
But most of those likely wouldnt vote for him anyway.MarqueeMark said:Trump has cancelled his NRA love-in - to go to a Latino event.
In Florida.
Word is the Republicans are worried the anti-Haitian comments are playing VERY badly there. And there are 500,000 Haitians in the state - the largest concentration in the whole US.
Be so funny if "They are eating the dogs. They are eating the cats..." cost him Florida - and its 30 EC votes. Damn near the same as Arizona, Minnesota and Wisconsin with their 31 combined.0 -
CRAZYBarnesian said:
I think China is actually a force for stability in the world in spite of all its manoeuvres around Taiwan.FrankBooth said:With North Korean troops moving to Ukraine is now the moment to punish China?
The last thing China wants is a third world war or even a trade war. It holds $0.8 trillion US dollars and I believe is vetoing Putin's use any nuclear weapons. It depends on exports. I think its strategy is to gradually increase and extend its power in a stable world. It is a formidable competitor but I don't think we should view it as the enemy as we do with Putin. It won't militarily attack Taiwan but will retain the aspiration of One China. It's a very long term strategy. A strategy that the West is incapable of.1 -
Some overlap there, Robinson will have most appeal in left behind strong Leave areas which are heavily white working class and deprived and have Labour MPs and as you say which had higher BNP membership and where the BNP and other far right parties won council seats before (though in Epping Forest that was likely concentrated in Waltham Abbey and the poorer parts of Loughton) and which see even Farage as a bit too posh for them let alone the Tories.MattW said:
That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.HYUFD said:
Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etcMattW said:
See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.OldKingCole said:
But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.HYUFD said:
it still stands candidates post FarageOldKingCole said:
Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.HYUFD said:
Robinson now backs UKIPRHunt said:We shouldnt be complacent.
This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.
For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature such as the Hi-de-Hi constituencies.
(There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
Robinson will effectively try and take over UKIP now Farage has abandoned it and use it as a political vehicle for his ambitions, it has a brand name already there for him which got 12% of the vote 9 years ago at a GE1 -
On the so called strong us economy.
US budget deficit jumps to 6.3% of GDP in Q3, up from 5.6% in Q2 and the highest in 2024. This is crisis deficit spending which normally corresponds to 7.2% unemployment rate, but in this case it is meant to put lipstick on the economy in an election year
1 -
Just announced: HS2 passengers will get two plug sockets. All's well with the world.2
-
Well not now for sure.RHunt said:
But most of those likely wouldnt vote for him anyway.MarqueeMark said:Trump has cancelled his NRA love-in - to go to a Latino event.
In Florida.
Word is the Republicans are worried the anti-Haitian comments are playing VERY badly there. And there are 500,000 Haitians in the state - the largest concentration in the whole US.
Be so funny if "They are eating the dogs. They are eating the cats..." cost him Florida - and its 30 EC votes. Damn near the same as Arizona, Minnesota and Wisconsin with their 31 combined.0 -
Full names and addresses for a period of years are on Wikileaks and similar places. It caught Lee Anderson out when he posed for a photo selfie with a 'former member' (who rather underplayed his membership record to 'just one year'), around the Skegby Scooter Club (ie Vespas etc).HYUFD said:
Some overlap there, Robinson will have most appeal in left behind strong Leave areas which are heavily white working class and deprived and have Labour MPs and as you say which had higher BNP membership and where the BNP and other far right parties won council seats before (though in Epping Forest that was likely concentrated in Waltham Abbey and the poorer parts of Loughton) and which see even Farage as a bit too posh for them let alone the Tories.MattW said:
That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.HYUFD said:
Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etcMattW said:
See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.OldKingCole said:
But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.HYUFD said:
it still stands candidates post FarageOldKingCole said:
Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.HYUFD said:
Robinson now backs UKIPRHunt said:We shouldnt be complacent.
This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.
For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature such as the Hi-de-Hi constituencies.
(There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
Robinson will effectively try and take over UKIP now Farage has abandoned it and use it as a political vehicle for his ambitions, it has a brand name already there for him which got 12% of the vote 9 years ago at a GE
He has done various walk-the-line things, and sometimes over. Some are problematic and some are not - that one was likely a problem, as is the pub he bases himself at sometimes, whilst the famous one about blocking a traveller fly-pitch himself with boulders was OK.
I would quite like to know about any Hells Angels links, whether previous or since he pivoted Right, because we have one of the very small number of UK chapters based in his old Local Council seat, and I don't know how and whether they exercise influence. The word on my networks is "don't mess with them"; but I know little more than that.0 -
That database turned out to contain lots of random people that weren’t in the BNP, IIRCMattW said:
That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.HYUFD said:
Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etcMattW said:
See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.OldKingCole said:
But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.HYUFD said:
it still stands candidates post FarageOldKingCole said:
Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.HYUFD said:
Robinson now backs UKIPRHunt said:We shouldnt be complacent.
This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.
For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.
(There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
The BNP has done a recruiting drive and members were dong stuff like using people’s details off business cards they’d found etc.2 -
Kimberley (BC) Bulletin - Voting Day in Columbia River-Revelstoke, 2024 B.C. election
https://www.kimberleybulletin.com/home/voting-day-in-columbia-river-revelstoke-2024-bc-election-75963260 -
From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.MattW said:
That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.HYUFD said:
Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etcMattW said:
See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.OldKingCole said:
But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.HYUFD said:
it still stands candidates post FarageOldKingCole said:
Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.HYUFD said:
Robinson now backs UKIPRHunt said:We shouldnt be complacent.
This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.
For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.
(There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:
Lab: 31 (=)
Con: 24 (=)
Ref: 20 (=)
LD: 12 (=)
Grn: 8 (=)
https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
3 -
Thank-you. Useful to know.Malmesbury said:
That database turned out to contain lots of random people that weren’t in the BNP, IIRCMattW said:
That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.HYUFD said:
Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etcMattW said:
See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.OldKingCole said:
But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.HYUFD said:
it still stands candidates post FarageOldKingCole said:
Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.HYUFD said:
Robinson now backs UKIPRHunt said:We shouldnt be complacent.
This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.
For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.
(There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
The BNP has done a recruiting drive and members were dong stuff like using people’s details off business cards they’d found etc.
I suspect that is effectively noise, though, and the basic analysis is valid at an indicative level.0 -
The binary partisanship of the US is a major point of difference.rkrkrk said:
Yes, the UK has had stagnation for about 20 years and lots of people haven't gotten much wealthier, completely agree. But the UK hasnt (yet?) voted in Reform (who got about 15% of the vote). The three main parties got about 70% of the vote.Malmesbury said:
I’m talking about the U.K.rkrkrk said:
Donald Trump is going to get a minimum of 45% of the vote. You talk as if the poorest 10% are swinging it for him.Malmesbury said:
That comes of not breaking down stats enough. Have you not noticed the left behind areas in this country?rkrkrk said:
I don't think the stats bear that out. The poorest in society have gotten much richer in say the last 50 years. In the US, median wages basically rise every year yet their politics is pretty extreme.Malmesbury said:
I don’t think it necessarily means that.FF43 said:
I don't understand this much and casually repeated argument: The good guys are to blame for the bad guys being bad.Andy_JS said:
Trump is a warning to democracies everywhere of what you get if mainstream politicians ignore the legitimate concerns of a large segment of the population. Between 2000 and 2015 life was getting worse for a lot of Americans but almost the entire political class ignored it because it suited them to believe that because everything was going quite well for them it must also be going well for everyone else.kinabalu said:
Yep. And win or lose he'll get a big vote on Nov 5th for various reasons. To list a few:bondegezou said:
Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.moonshine said:
Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).bondegezou said:
a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.Casino_Royale said:Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.
We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.
So, why?
b. Racism is popular.
Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
He's the GOP candidate. Loads of people always vote GOP.
He's a skilful exploiter of ignorance and resentment.
He's charismatic and has built a massive energetic loyal cult (MAGA).
Most Americans don't feel better off despite what the stats say.
It might be enough. I don't think so but my instincts could be wrong. Soon find out anyway.
Economic prosperity both in the UK and US became segmented, especially in the last 2-3 decades
I did very well. Pay rises, lots of work etc.
At the same time a lot of people saw actual wage decreases. Many services and goods became cheaper as a result. For me and those like me - awesome.
So carpeting a flat went from £1600 in 1998 to £700 (same flat) in 2019. Yay for me. For the people in the carpet business?
People like me didn’t sit around a table planning to kick carpet fitters where it hurts. But they got hurt.
The UK has had a period of poor performance over last 20 years, and yet we have returned to the 'centre', with the Lib Dems and Labour both having their best election results in aged.
The main parties are not popular. And people are wondering what comes next after that.
He's not drawing support solely from the left behind who do exist, but in any case are generally much better off than they were 20-30 years ago).
There are chunks of the population who have seen a decline in living standards. Most of their money going in rent doesn’t help.
A friend, classic educated, but not credentialed working class, saw successive jobs reduced to minimum wage. In the end, left for Australia.
Why do you think the two big parties are not popular and Nigel Fucking Farage and his clownshow* are up there?
On the subject of the US - MAGA is a coalition like any other potential winning group. Try reading some of the reasons the poorer voters are voting his way.
*Autoincorrect tried to render this as “clown ship”. For some reason I like that.
And the reform voters are largely older people, who actually have seen their economic position protected.
Your economics-driven theory just doesn't match the results in my view.
To put it crudely -> US economy doing great, rising median wages etc. -> they have ~50% voting for anti-immigrant, blow up the system candidate.
UK economy doing terribly, stagnant wages -> they are largely voting for centrist parties.
Our equivalent would be a hard right demogogue gains control of the Tory party and simply by dint of that gets a decent shot at becoming PM because they only have to beat Labour and they're guaranteed 40% of the vote come what may.
So, graft on 10% from elsewhere and bingo.0 -
Oh yes. And the commodity brokers who also buy and sell oil, foodstuffs and metals. Based in Switzerland and now many companies have offices in Dubai and Hongkong where they can be fully regulated. They make loads of money!rcs1000 said:
The oil market is pretty spivvy. Oil gets taken on a tanker from Iran to a storage facility in Mauritius, and then gets picked up and taken to a refinery on the coast of India, and all the paperwork has been lost, but - hey - it's not a ship from Russia, so how can it be Russian oil?highwayparadise306 said:China. The buyer of Iranian oil.
It's how Marc Rich became a billionaire.0 -
Already happened, given some left liberals and Remainers consider Boris a 'hard right demagogue'kinabalu said:
The binary partisanship of the US is a major point of difference.rkrkrk said:
Yes, the UK has had stagnation for about 20 years and lots of people haven't gotten much wealthier, completely agree. But the UK hasnt (yet?) voted in Reform (who got about 15% of the vote). The three main parties got about 70% of the vote.Malmesbury said:
I’m talking about the U.K.rkrkrk said:
Donald Trump is going to get a minimum of 45% of the vote. You talk as if the poorest 10% are swinging it for him.Malmesbury said:
That comes of not breaking down stats enough. Have you not noticed the left behind areas in this country?rkrkrk said:
I don't think the stats bear that out. The poorest in society have gotten much richer in say the last 50 years. In the US, median wages basically rise every year yet their politics is pretty extreme.Malmesbury said:
I don’t think it necessarily means that.FF43 said:
I don't understand this much and casually repeated argument: The good guys are to blame for the bad guys being bad.Andy_JS said:
Trump is a warning to democracies everywhere of what you get if mainstream politicians ignore the legitimate concerns of a large segment of the population. Between 2000 and 2015 life was getting worse for a lot of Americans but almost the entire political class ignored it because it suited them to believe that because everything was going quite well for them it must also be going well for everyone else.kinabalu said:
Yep. And win or lose he'll get a big vote on Nov 5th for various reasons. To list a few:bondegezou said:
Americans are just as intelligent as everyone else in the world, but you ignore that there is a pro-Trump media bubble. If that’s all you hear, you form a very different view of the world.moonshine said:
Hmmm. So your considered view is “ignorant and racist”. Got it. That worked so well in 2016 (in both the US and UK).bondegezou said:
a. Major media sources pump out pro-Trump propaganda. It’s not that Americans are thick: Americans simply don’t get told the facts.Casino_Royale said:Trouble is, I never hear any serious analysis of why Trump might be doing so well in the USA other than Americans are a bit thick and stupid - which obviously isn't true - and is very patronising and an insult to our intelligence.
We know why he shouldn't be doing so well, but he is.
So, why?
b. Racism is popular.
Trump is racist. He is running a racist campaign. Pretending that’s not happening is just bizarre.
He's the GOP candidate. Loads of people always vote GOP.
He's a skilful exploiter of ignorance and resentment.
He's charismatic and has built a massive energetic loyal cult (MAGA).
Most Americans don't feel better off despite what the stats say.
It might be enough. I don't think so but my instincts could be wrong. Soon find out anyway.
Economic prosperity both in the UK and US became segmented, especially in the last 2-3 decades
I did very well. Pay rises, lots of work etc.
At the same time a lot of people saw actual wage decreases. Many services and goods became cheaper as a result. For me and those like me - awesome.
So carpeting a flat went from £1600 in 1998 to £700 (same flat) in 2019. Yay for me. For the people in the carpet business?
People like me didn’t sit around a table planning to kick carpet fitters where it hurts. But they got hurt.
The UK has had a period of poor performance over last 20 years, and yet we have returned to the 'centre', with the Lib Dems and Labour both having their best election results in aged.
The main parties are not popular. And people are wondering what comes next after that.
He's not drawing support solely from the left behind who do exist, but in any case are generally much better off than they were 20-30 years ago).
There are chunks of the population who have seen a decline in living standards. Most of their money going in rent doesn’t help.
A friend, classic educated, but not credentialed working class, saw successive jobs reduced to minimum wage. In the end, left for Australia.
Why do you think the two big parties are not popular and Nigel Fucking Farage and his clownshow* are up there?
On the subject of the US - MAGA is a coalition like any other potential winning group. Try reading some of the reasons the poorer voters are voting his way.
*Autoincorrect tried to render this as “clown ship”. For some reason I like that.
And the reform voters are largely older people, who actually have seen their economic position protected.
Your economics-driven theory just doesn't match the results in my view.
To put it crudely -> US economy doing great, rising median wages etc. -> they have ~50% voting for anti-immigrant, blow up the system candidate.
UK economy doing terribly, stagnant wages -> they are largely voting for centrist parties.
Our equivalent would be a hard right demogogue gains control of the Tory party and simply by dint of that gets a decent shot at becoming PM because they only have to beat Labour and they're guaranteed 40% of the vote come what may.
So, graft on 10% from elsewhere and bingo.0 -
The question is whether they vote. Differential turnout is going to decide the contest, one way or the other.RHunt said:
But most of those likely wouldnt vote for him anyway.MarqueeMark said:Trump has cancelled his NRA love-in - to go to a Latino event.
In Florida.
Word is the Republicans are worried the anti-Haitian comments are playing VERY badly there. And there are 500,000 Haitians in the state - the largest concentration in the whole US.
Be so funny if "They are eating the dogs. They are eating the cats..." cost him Florida - and its 30 EC votes. Damn near the same as Arizona, Minnesota and Wisconsin with their 31 combined.1 -
Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchangedStuartinromford said:
From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.MattW said:
That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.HYUFD said:
Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etcMattW said:
See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.OldKingCole said:
But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.HYUFD said:
it still stands candidates post FarageOldKingCole said:
Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.HYUFD said:
Robinson now backs UKIPRHunt said:We shouldnt be complacent.
This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.
For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.
(There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:
Lab: 31 (=)
Con: 24 (=)
Ref: 20 (=)
LD: 12 (=)
Grn: 8 (=)
https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x0 -
Exactly!OldKingCole said:
If Trump wins, and I think …..hope …… that’s by no means certain…… he’ll regard that as a mandate for whatever he wants to do.HYUFD said:
Even if Trump does win it will likely be with a small mandate and doesn't mean the US will suddenly become an enemy and pro Russia and China.PoodleInASlipstream said:
Trump 2.0 means the end of the world order as it has been since the 40s. NATO cannot survive if its biggest member effectively switches sides. Any nation with even the most flimsy territorial claim and sufficient military capability will know they will get away with using force.FrankBooth said:What would a Trump presidency mean? F*ck knows. But we should be taking his statements seriously. He's likely to abandon Ukraine and cosy up to Putin. This could destroy Nato and put us at odds with a US government in a way we haven't been for over 100 years. We're facing a major threat from the Axis of autocrats led by China and it's not clear the US President would be on our side.
And, yes, almost nobody in power is taking this seriously enough.
We are not prepared for a world where the US is an enemy. Where Ukraine falls and multiple EU members know they are next in line for Putin's meatgrinder. Where China makes a grab for Taiwan and causes a global economic meltdown.
This isn't even accounting for the not insignificant chance the US itself begins to come apart. If you are the US military command do you obey Trump's orders to abandon Ukraine and begin aiding Russia, or do you consider the unthinkable? Does the Governor of a liberal state acquiesce as Vance & co implement Project 2025, or does succession suddenly become the lest terrible course?
Lots of people are closing their eyes and hoping this doesn't happen. I hope they're not in for an unpleasant shock.
Trump is proposing massive tariffs on Chinese imports as well as EU imports for one and he did back Brexit unlike the Democrats.
Most likely he would try and force a deal between Putin and Zelensky in Ukraine but otherwise remain neutral0 -
Correction. Where they cannot be fully regulated.highwayparadise306 said:
Oh yes. And the commodity brokers who also buy and sell oil, foodstuffs and metals. Based in Switzerland and now many companies have offices in Dubai and Hongkong where they can be fully regulated. They make loads of money!rcs1000 said:
The oil market is pretty spivvy. Oil gets taken on a tanker from Iran to a storage facility in Mauritius, and then gets picked up and taken to a refinery on the coast of India, and all the paperwork has been lost, but - hey - it's not a ship from Russia, so how can it be Russian oil?highwayparadise306 said:China. The buyer of Iranian oil.
It's how Marc Rich became a billionaire.0 -
Would be great to see, make things more relaxing.MarqueeMark said:Trump has cancelled his NRA love-in - to go to a Latino event.
In Florida.
Word is the Republicans are worried the anti-Haitian comments are playing VERY badly there. And there are 500,000 Haitians in the state - the largest concentration in the whole US.
Be so funny if "They are eating the dogs. They are eating the cats..." cost him Florida - and its 30 EC votes. Damn near the same as Arizona, Minnesota and Wisconsin with their 31 combined.0 -
And he has a court ready to say he can do criminal things without personal consequence, so long as he can say it is an official duty.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Exactly!OldKingCole said:
If Trump wins, and I think …..hope …… that’s by no means certain…… he’ll regard that as a mandate for whatever he wants to do.HYUFD said:
Even if Trump does win it will likely be with a small mandate and doesn't mean the US will suddenly become an enemy and pro Russia and China.PoodleInASlipstream said:
Trump 2.0 means the end of the world order as it has been since the 40s. NATO cannot survive if its biggest member effectively switches sides. Any nation with even the most flimsy territorial claim and sufficient military capability will know they will get away with using force.FrankBooth said:What would a Trump presidency mean? F*ck knows. But we should be taking his statements seriously. He's likely to abandon Ukraine and cosy up to Putin. This could destroy Nato and put us at odds with a US government in a way we haven't been for over 100 years. We're facing a major threat from the Axis of autocrats led by China and it's not clear the US President would be on our side.
And, yes, almost nobody in power is taking this seriously enough.
We are not prepared for a world where the US is an enemy. Where Ukraine falls and multiple EU members know they are next in line for Putin's meatgrinder. Where China makes a grab for Taiwan and causes a global economic meltdown.
This isn't even accounting for the not insignificant chance the US itself begins to come apart. If you are the US military command do you obey Trump's orders to abandon Ukraine and begin aiding Russia, or do you consider the unthinkable? Does the Governor of a liberal state acquiesce as Vance & co implement Project 2025, or does succession suddenly become the lest terrible course?
Lots of people are closing their eyes and hoping this doesn't happen. I hope they're not in for an unpleasant shock.
Trump is proposing massive tariffs on Chinese imports as well as EU imports for one and he did back Brexit unlike the Democrats.
Most likely he would try and force a deal between Putin and Zelensky in Ukraine but otherwise remain neutral0 -
Shame he did not turn up. They could get Sly Stallone to come along and play Living in America from Rocky 1.kle4 said:
Would be great to see, make things more relaxing.MarqueeMark said:Trump has cancelled his NRA love-in - to go to a Latino event.
In Florida.
Word is the Republicans are worried the anti-Haitian comments are playing VERY badly there. And there are 500,000 Haitians in the state - the largest concentration in the whole US.
Be so funny if "They are eating the dogs. They are eating the cats..." cost him Florida - and its 30 EC votes. Damn near the same as Arizona, Minnesota and Wisconsin with their 31 combined.0 -
A quick return to power is 100% not going to happen HY - this situation is closer to being end of UK Conservatism as we have always known it, than any quick comeback, especially if 1) the party, continuing interest in US style conservatism, drifts further away from understanding UK One Nation Conservatism, and the electability this has always given them with UK voters, and 2) the coming elections settle into a pattern of similar split of right wing votes, between Reform, Tory and LibDem parties. Such a pattern will definitely happen if the Conservative Party continues to vocalise Reform positions, without going all in on Reform policies to address those positions. The Tories can’t adopt Reform policies, because those policies are half baked and ludicrous, and will always be better sold to voters by Farage anyway - but neither do the Tories seem able to stop themselves “sounding” just like Reform, trying to “out Reform” Reform in rhetoric.HYUFD said:
Labour and the Tories are already neck and neck in at least one poll, that is rather complacent. Though yes LD voters may stay LD absent a One Nation Tory leader but Labour voters can certainly swing back blue if they voted for Boris before or go ReformMoonRabbit said:
And along came “cosplay Thatcher” whose very first answer she gave at her PMQ’s - no, we won’t introduce a Windfall Tax. Only Labour put up taxes.MoonRabbit said:
Does our monarch rule over one nation, or two nations - the rich and the poor?TheScreamingEagles said:Just partook in a YouGov poll of Tory members.
One the supplementaties it asked me to define what One Nation Toryism means.
I feel sorry for the YouGov person who has to read HYUFD's response to that question.
I also had to say whether which Tory politicians were One Nation Tories or not.
Toryism was always at its best when seeing more than one nation, and taking action to make it whole.
And one of the most perfect examples - probably the very stuff that made you such a vocal Thatcherite, TSE - Lady Thatcher waving away the bleating Oil Companies and Banks in the early eighties recession, to Windfall Tax them so budgets could put financial help into the households of the struggling working classes.
That suggests she would struggle to explain what One Nation Conservatism is, and how it produced a century and half of electoral dominance.
She was replaced by a Prime Minister whose idea of assistance programme with energy bills, included giving himself tax payers money to help heat his mansions indoor pool through the crisis.
Did he ever in his political career see Two Nations - the rich and the poor?
There’s no reason for for PB Tories to sound so chipper in recent months, laughing at Starmer’s first hundred days. Going into the next election, not only is the electoral arithmetic abysmal for the Conservatives, but the narrative of how badly they lost their way in government will play for a long long time - like the “Winter of Discontent” narrative played at all 80’s and 90’s elections. Yes, easy to skim froth off top Labours majority, but further down, where seats needed for return to government, once lifelong voting Tories lost over “One Nation” and Brexit, likely stay with Lib Dem’s and Labour for the rest of their lives. 😕
For now, ignore all GE polling that’s five years from the actual vote, think 2010 to 2015 for reason why - what is actually happening right here right now, the Conservative Party is still blowing around in, and disappearing down, a vortex of irrelevance 😟2 -
A (more) worrying thing is that his cognitive decline is such that he doesn't do what he wants to do; but he does whatever the last person who whispers in his ear wants him to do.OldKingCole said:
If Trump wins, and I think …..hope …… that’s by no means certain…… he’ll regard that as a mandate for whatever he wants to do.HYUFD said:
Even if Trump does win it will likely be with a small mandate and doesn't mean the US will suddenly become an enemy and pro Russia and China.PoodleInASlipstream said:
Trump 2.0 means the end of the world order as it has been since the 40s. NATO cannot survive if its biggest member effectively switches sides. Any nation with even the most flimsy territorial claim and sufficient military capability will know they will get away with using force.FrankBooth said:What would a Trump presidency mean? F*ck knows. But we should be taking his statements seriously. He's likely to abandon Ukraine and cosy up to Putin. This could destroy Nato and put us at odds with a US government in a way we haven't been for over 100 years. We're facing a major threat from the Axis of autocrats led by China and it's not clear the US President would be on our side.
And, yes, almost nobody in power is taking this seriously enough.
We are not prepared for a world where the US is an enemy. Where Ukraine falls and multiple EU members know they are next in line for Putin's meatgrinder. Where China makes a grab for Taiwan and causes a global economic meltdown.
This isn't even accounting for the not insignificant chance the US itself begins to come apart. If you are the US military command do you obey Trump's orders to abandon Ukraine and begin aiding Russia, or do you consider the unthinkable? Does the Governor of a liberal state acquiesce as Vance & co implement Project 2025, or does succession suddenly become the lest terrible course?
Lots of people are closing their eyes and hoping this doesn't happen. I hope they're not in for an unpleasant shock.
Trump is proposing massive tariffs on Chinese imports as well as EU imports for one and he did back Brexit unlike the Democrats.
Most likely he would try and force a deal between Putin and Zelensky in Ukraine but otherwise remain neutral5 -
That would not surprise me.JosiasJessop said:
A (more) worrying thing is that his cognitive decline is such that he doesn't do what he wants to do; but he does whatever the last person who whispers in his ear wants him to do.OldKingCole said:
If Trump wins, and I think …..hope …… that’s by no means certain…… he’ll regard that as a mandate for whatever he wants to do.HYUFD said:
Even if Trump does win it will likely be with a small mandate and doesn't mean the US will suddenly become an enemy and pro Russia and China.PoodleInASlipstream said:
Trump 2.0 means the end of the world order as it has been since the 40s. NATO cannot survive if its biggest member effectively switches sides. Any nation with even the most flimsy territorial claim and sufficient military capability will know they will get away with using force.FrankBooth said:What would a Trump presidency mean? F*ck knows. But we should be taking his statements seriously. He's likely to abandon Ukraine and cosy up to Putin. This could destroy Nato and put us at odds with a US government in a way we haven't been for over 100 years. We're facing a major threat from the Axis of autocrats led by China and it's not clear the US President would be on our side.
And, yes, almost nobody in power is taking this seriously enough.
We are not prepared for a world where the US is an enemy. Where Ukraine falls and multiple EU members know they are next in line for Putin's meatgrinder. Where China makes a grab for Taiwan and causes a global economic meltdown.
This isn't even accounting for the not insignificant chance the US itself begins to come apart. If you are the US military command do you obey Trump's orders to abandon Ukraine and begin aiding Russia, or do you consider the unthinkable? Does the Governor of a liberal state acquiesce as Vance & co implement Project 2025, or does succession suddenly become the lest terrible course?
Lots of people are closing their eyes and hoping this doesn't happen. I hope they're not in for an unpleasant shock.
Trump is proposing massive tariffs on Chinese imports as well as EU imports for one and he did back Brexit unlike the Democrats.
Most likely he would try and force a deal between Putin and Zelensky in Ukraine but otherwise remain neutral0 -
Further, the diagram contains data showing both 2009 and change from 2007, so that should make it more resilient as a dataset.MattW said:
Thank-you. Useful to know.Malmesbury said:
That database turned out to contain lots of random people that weren’t in the BNP, IIRCMattW said:
That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.HYUFD said:
Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etcMattW said:
See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.OldKingCole said:
But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.HYUFD said:
it still stands candidates post FarageOldKingCole said:
Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.HYUFD said:
Robinson now backs UKIPRHunt said:We shouldnt be complacent.
This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.
For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.
(There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
The BNP has done a recruiting drive and members were dong stuff like using people’s details off business cards they’d found etc.
I suspect that is effectively noise, though, and the basic analysis is valid at an indicative level.0 -
That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.HYUFD said:
Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchangedStuartinromford said:
From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.MattW said:
That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.HYUFD said:
Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etcMattW said:
See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.OldKingCole said:
But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.HYUFD said:
it still stands candidates post FarageOldKingCole said:
Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.HYUFD said:
Robinson now backs UKIPRHunt said:We shouldnt be complacent.
This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.
For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.
(There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:
Lab: 31 (=)
Con: 24 (=)
Ref: 20 (=)
LD: 12 (=)
Grn: 8 (=)
https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x0 -
He has long seemed to believe anything he reads or sees on tv, he defends a lot of bizarre things as being true on the basis he saw it reported on TV.JosiasJessop said:
A (more) worrying thing is that his cognitive decline is such that he doesn't do what he wants to do; but he does whatever the last person who whispers in his ear wants him to do.OldKingCole said:
If Trump wins, and I think …..hope …… that’s by no means certain…… he’ll regard that as a mandate for whatever he wants to do.HYUFD said:
Even if Trump does win it will likely be with a small mandate and doesn't mean the US will suddenly become an enemy and pro Russia and China.PoodleInASlipstream said:
Trump 2.0 means the end of the world order as it has been since the 40s. NATO cannot survive if its biggest member effectively switches sides. Any nation with even the most flimsy territorial claim and sufficient military capability will know they will get away with using force.FrankBooth said:What would a Trump presidency mean? F*ck knows. But we should be taking his statements seriously. He's likely to abandon Ukraine and cosy up to Putin. This could destroy Nato and put us at odds with a US government in a way we haven't been for over 100 years. We're facing a major threat from the Axis of autocrats led by China and it's not clear the US President would be on our side.
And, yes, almost nobody in power is taking this seriously enough.
We are not prepared for a world where the US is an enemy. Where Ukraine falls and multiple EU members know they are next in line for Putin's meatgrinder. Where China makes a grab for Taiwan and causes a global economic meltdown.
This isn't even accounting for the not insignificant chance the US itself begins to come apart. If you are the US military command do you obey Trump's orders to abandon Ukraine and begin aiding Russia, or do you consider the unthinkable? Does the Governor of a liberal state acquiesce as Vance & co implement Project 2025, or does succession suddenly become the lest terrible course?
Lots of people are closing their eyes and hoping this doesn't happen. I hope they're not in for an unpleasant shock.
Trump is proposing massive tariffs on Chinese imports as well as EU imports for one and he did back Brexit unlike the Democrats.
Most likely he would try and force a deal between Putin and Zelensky in Ukraine but otherwise remain neutral
Musk is going the same way, without the excuse of age.1 -
None in Castle Point. Strange. There used to be in my day there; I knew some.Malmesbury said:
That database turned out to contain lots of random people that weren’t in the BNP, IIRCMattW said:
That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.HYUFD said:
Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etcMattW said:
See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.OldKingCole said:
But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.HYUFD said:
it still stands candidates post FarageOldKingCole said:
Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.HYUFD said:
Robinson now backs UKIPRHunt said:We shouldnt be complacent.
This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.
For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.
(There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
The BNP has done a recruiting drive and members were dong stuff like using people’s details off business cards they’d found etc.0 -
Fantasists full of rubbish.kle4 said:
He has long seemed to believe anything he reads or sees on tv, he defends a lot of bizarre things as being true on the basis he saw it reported on TV.JosiasJessop said:
A (more) worrying thing is that his cognitive decline is such that he doesn't do what he wants to do; but he does whatever the last person who whispers in his ear wants him to do.OldKingCole said:
If Trump wins, and I think …..hope …… that’s by no means certain…… he’ll regard that as a mandate for whatever he wants to do.HYUFD said:
Even if Trump does win it will likely be with a small mandate and doesn't mean the US will suddenly become an enemy and pro Russia and China.PoodleInASlipstream said:
Trump 2.0 means the end of the world order as it has been since the 40s. NATO cannot survive if its biggest member effectively switches sides. Any nation with even the most flimsy territorial claim and sufficient military capability will know they will get away with using force.FrankBooth said:What would a Trump presidency mean? F*ck knows. But we should be taking his statements seriously. He's likely to abandon Ukraine and cosy up to Putin. This could destroy Nato and put us at odds with a US government in a way we haven't been for over 100 years. We're facing a major threat from the Axis of autocrats led by China and it's not clear the US President would be on our side.
And, yes, almost nobody in power is taking this seriously enough.
We are not prepared for a world where the US is an enemy. Where Ukraine falls and multiple EU members know they are next in line for Putin's meatgrinder. Where China makes a grab for Taiwan and causes a global economic meltdown.
This isn't even accounting for the not insignificant chance the US itself begins to come apart. If you are the US military command do you obey Trump's orders to abandon Ukraine and begin aiding Russia, or do you consider the unthinkable? Does the Governor of a liberal state acquiesce as Vance & co implement Project 2025, or does succession suddenly become the lest terrible course?
Lots of people are closing their eyes and hoping this doesn't happen. I hope they're not in for an unpleasant shock.
Trump is proposing massive tariffs on Chinese imports as well as EU imports for one and he did back Brexit unlike the Democrats.
Most likely he would try and force a deal between Putin and Zelensky in Ukraine but otherwise remain neutral
Musk is going the same way, without the excuse of age.0 -
Hardly, it would see the Conservatives gain 30 seats from Labour on a 1.5% swing since the GE with 0 losses to the LDs.MoonRabbit said:
That is a terrifying poll for UK Conservatives imo.HYUFD said:
Some swing from Labour to Reform and the Greens since the GE then but Tories and LDs unchangedStuartinromford said:
From Hi-De-Hi to Heil-De-Heil.MattW said:
That's a provocative thought. You would have to add a couple of places in Amber Valley to that list, like Heanor, Waingroves, Old Denby.HYUFD said:
Pre Robinson endorsement, if they put Robinson's photo on all their literature I could certainly see them picking up some local council seats in the likes of Burnley, Stoke, Coventry, Plymouth, Sunderland, Hartlepool, Dagenham etcMattW said:
See my other comment for detail. Zero Local Councillors.OldKingCole said:
But how do they do? The Liberal Party stands candidates in various council elections but has about six councillors nationwide.HYUFD said:
it still stands candidates post FarageOldKingCole said:
Is UKIP still a thing? I thought it was on a level with the SDP or Socialist Labour.HYUFD said:
Robinson now backs UKIPRHunt said:We shouldnt be complacent.
This is the blurb from Tommy Robinsons best selling book manifesto.
For decades the political class have openly planned to replace the indigenous people of Europe and in Manifesto we focus on how they are doing this in the UK. To ensure no-one disturbs their plans the elite manufacture a mythical far-right, when in truth it is the elite 1% who run a Fascist system of state-control, censorship and discrimination. Whenever someone has publicly addressed what is going on, the ruling class set about to destroy that person. We show how the elitist 1% have openly manipulated democracy to subjugate the masses, their elitist discussions carried on in plain sight for over a century, while they distract the masses with unimportant nonsense. The 1% knowingly plan to bring about another global conflict and in the aftermath they will end up in control of the world's resources and financial systems: "you will own nothing and you will be happy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
This is the map of BNP members by then constituency in the period 2007-2009, when their database was leaked. It still seems a fairly sound basic analysis for where the far right are focused imo, although certain potential areas are less prominent that may feature, such as the Hi-De-Hi constituencies.
(There's a data table for the whole of the UK on the piece, with more detail.)
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/bnp-membership-list-constituency
Anyway, Opinium is out, though with panel caveats:
Lab: 31 (=)
Con: 24 (=)
Ref: 20 (=)
LD: 12 (=)
Grn: 8 (=)
https://bsky.app/profile/opiniumresearch.bsky.social/post/3l6v6ezafc22x
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
That on a poll taken entirely after Badenoch and Jenrick were confirmed as the final 2 left in the Tory leadership race
Reform would also gain 6 Labour seats and 1 Tory seat, Hornchurch and Upminster
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk
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