I’d like Badenoch to win, just because my annoying friend confidently opines that the Tory party are too racist to choose her.
It would be a strange situation where Tory MPs in the all too frequent recent leadership contests have repeatedly nominated multiple non-white candidates with significant support, yet the Members just wouldn't bear such a candidate for the reason their racial characteristics. MPs are little different than the average Member after all.
I can 100% predict that my annoying friend will soon pivot to “The Tories are racist and they voted for Badenoch precisely because she makes them feel they are not racist”.
He has already started tentative suggestions in that direction.
IDK, I may need Kehinde Andrews or someone equivalent to weigh in on the subject before I decide.
I’d like Badenoch to win, just because my annoying friend confidently opines that the Tory party are too racist to choose her.
It would be a strange situation where Tory MPs in the all too frequent recent leadership contests have repeatedly nominated multiple non-white candidates with significant support, yet the Members just wouldn't bear such a candidate for the reason their racial characteristics. MPs are little different than the average Member after all.
I can 100% predict that my annoying friend will soon pivot to “The Tories are racist and they voted for Badenoch precisely because she makes them feel they are not racist”.
He has already started tentative suggestions in that direction.
Her leading the Tories is probably significant enough to gain some traction in the US news media so she could have an unusually high profile for a British leader of the opposition.
I just wonder if the announcement of her election on Nov 2 would offer floating voters in the US an image of a black woman leader in such a way as to make Harris' leadership less of a big step to vote for a couple of days later?
I very much doubt enough Americans would care about (or notice) the election here for it to make even 0.1% of a difference, sadly.
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
Kamala HQ @KamalaHQ · 36m Vice President Harris to MAGA hecklers: “Oh you guys are at the wrong rally. I think you meant to go to the smaller one down the street”
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
I never thought I’d see a sentence like “I won’t be able to get to the bookies until Saturday” on this website.
Kamala HQ @KamalaHQ · 36m Vice President Harris to MAGA hecklers: “Oh you guys are at the wrong rally. I think you meant to go to the smaller one down the street”
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
See my previous posts and articles about why I don't do that.
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
I never thought I’d see a sentence like “I won’t be able to get to the bookies until Saturday” on this website.
Oh, I dunno. Some PBers give every impression of being unable to even use a debit card to pay for stuff.
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
See my previous posts and articles about why I don't do that.
I’m supposed to go through your posts to ascertain why you don’t use Betfair?
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
I never thought I’d see a sentence like “I won’t be able to get to the bookies until Saturday” on this website.
As I may have mentioned, I travel a lot for work. Friday is one of those days, and I will no doubt post something like "I am on a train and it's awful" tomorrow. Getting from A to B requires taxis and trains to a set timetable as A and B are over a hundred miles apart. Diverting to a bookies is costly in time as bookmaker X is a fair way from station B. I can delay it to Saturday even though bookmakers are a bit fraught on Saturday because people bet on horseracing for some reason, but it eats into my time.
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
See my previous posts and articles about why I don't do that.
I’m supposed to go through your posts to ascertain why you don’t use Betfair?
Given that I've written about it many times, it's not as unreasonable as it sounds, especially as I covered it in the "thin gruel" article written earlier in the year. Broadly speaking the "Chronicle of a Bet Foretold" series covers it. I can go thru it again if you wish.
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
I never thought I’d see a sentence like “I won’t be able to get to the bookies until Saturday” on this website.
As I may have mentioned, I travel a lot for work. Friday is one of those days, and I will no doubt post something like "I am on a train and it's awful" tomorrow. Getting from A to B requires taxis and trains to a set timetable as A and B are over a hundred miles apart. Diverting to a bookies is costly in time as bookmaker X is a fair way from station B. I can delay it to Saturday even though bookmakers are a bit fraught on Saturday because people bet on horseracing for some reason, but it eats into my time.
It’s almost as if withdrawing cash then going to physical premises to put a bet on is an entirely pointless waste of time and energy.
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
I never thought I’d see a sentence like “I won’t be able to get to the bookies until Saturday” on this website.
As I may have mentioned, I travel a lot for work. Friday is one of those days, and I will no doubt post something like "I am on a train and it's awful" tomorrow. Getting from A to B requires taxis and trains to a set timetable as A and B are over a hundred miles apart. Diverting to a bookies is costly in time as bookmaker X is a fair way from station B. I can delay it to Saturday even though bookmakers are a bit fraught on Saturday because people bet on horseracing for some reason, but it eats into my time.
It’s almost as if withdrawing cash then going to physical premises to put a bet on is an entirely pointless waste of time and energy.
It's almost as if constantly shitposting your personal preferences regarding physical cash is an entirely pointless waste of time and energy.
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
I never thought I’d see a sentence like “I won’t be able to get to the bookies until Saturday” on this website.
As I may have mentioned, I travel a lot for work. Friday is one of those days, and I will no doubt post something like "I am on a train and it's awful" tomorrow. Getting from A to B requires taxis and trains to a set timetable as A and B are over a hundred miles apart. Diverting to a bookies is costly in time as bookmaker X is a fair way from station B. I can delay it to Saturday even though bookmakers are a bit fraught on Saturday because people bet on horseracing for some reason, but it eats into my time.
It’s almost as if withdrawing cash then going to physical premises to put a bet on is an entirely pointless waste of time and energy.
It's almost as if constantly shitposting your personal preferences regarding physical cash is an entirely pointless waste of time and energy.
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
I never thought I’d see a sentence like “I won’t be able to get to the bookies until Saturday” on this website.
As I may have mentioned, I travel a lot for work. Friday is one of those days, and I will no doubt post something like "I am on a train and it's awful" tomorrow. Getting from A to B requires taxis and trains to a set timetable as A and B are over a hundred miles apart. Diverting to a bookies is costly in time as bookmaker X is a fair way from station B. I can delay it to Saturday even though bookmakers are a bit fraught on Saturday because people bet on horseracing for some reason, but it eats into my time.
It’s almost as if withdrawing cash then going to physical premises to put a bet on is an entirely pointless waste of time and energy.
It's almost as if constantly shitposting your personal preferences regarding physical cash is an entirely pointless waste of time and energy.
No.
Yes, literally, yes. You are the most boring t*** on here, and that's up against some stiff competition.
At least when Leon bangs on about AI he's half way to being articulate, and when the terf crowd show up there's at least a debate.
I don't actually know who the most boring man in the world is, but I'm sure you could give them a run for their money. Give it a rest. Talk about something else.
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
See my previous posts and articles about why I don't do that.
I’m supposed to go through your posts to ascertain why you don’t use Betfair?
Given that I've written about it many times, it's not as unreasonable as it sounds, especially as I covered it in the "thin gruel" article written earlier in the year. Broadly speaking the "Chronicle of a Bet Foretold" series covers it. I can go thru it again if you wish.
I have just found it. It gives no real reason but does say this: “ But I, being an awkward bastitch who refuses to bet online, refuses to do this. I prefer to rock up to the real-life high-street shop.”
Which is up to you, but then don’t whine that you can’t get a bet on until Saturday when you could just be rational and use Betfair!
HS2 will end up being a "different rail line in a very similar place" says @PronouncedAlva who broke the story today of Crewe extension, speaking to Newsnight.
What a f*cking mess this country is.
Just build the bloody thing as agreed by parliament on several occasions.
Or preferably scrap the whole huge white elephant and give taxpayers a break or else spend it on transport projects that make some sense.
Crossrail 2 is a fraction of the price and has a much higher cost-benefit ratio.
On topic it doesn't matter what the voters think, they're fickle and the next election isn't until 2029. Alanbrooke says,
if she inflicts pain on the masses she may be joining Sue Gray after Starmer has one of his ruthless spells
...but Kier Starmer isn't like that, he plays the long game. There was a time early in his leadership when he was doing party reforms instead of early policy announcements and people here were saying Labour needed to get rid of him but he just carried on and got the stuff done he needed to get done. He's not going to boot out his chancellor for doing her job.
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
I never thought I’d see a sentence like “I won’t be able to get to the bookies until Saturday” on this website.
As I may have mentioned, I travel a lot for work. Friday is one of those days, and I will no doubt post something like "I am on a train and it's awful" tomorrow. Getting from A to B requires taxis and trains to a set timetable as A and B are over a hundred miles apart. Diverting to a bookies is costly in time as bookmaker X is a fair way from station B. I can delay it to Saturday even though bookmakers are a bit fraught on Saturday because people bet on horseracing for some reason, but it eats into my time.
It’s almost as if withdrawing cash then going to physical premises to put a bet on is an entirely pointless waste of time and energy.
It's almost as if constantly shitposting your personal preferences regarding physical cash is an entirely pointless waste of time and energy.
No.
Yes, literally, yes. You are the most boring t*** on here, and that's up against some stiff competition.
At least when Leon bangs on about AI he's half way to being articulate, and when the terf crowd show up there's at least a debate.
I don't actually know who the most boring man in the world is, but I'm sure you could give them a run for their money. Give it a rest. Talk about something else.
Crikey. Calm down.
I didn’t raise it, he did. He said he couldn’t get a bet on, for no good reason. I pointed out the fallacy, is all.
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
I never thought I’d see a sentence like “I won’t be able to get to the bookies until Saturday” on this website.
As I may have mentioned, I travel a lot for work. Friday is one of those days, and I will no doubt post something like "I am on a train and it's awful" tomorrow. Getting from A to B requires taxis and trains to a set timetable as A and B are over a hundred miles apart. Diverting to a bookies is costly in time as bookmaker X is a fair way from station B. I can delay it to Saturday even though bookmakers are a bit fraught on Saturday because people bet on horseracing for some reason, but it eats into my time.
It’s almost as if withdrawing cash then going to physical premises to put a bet on is an entirely pointless waste of time and energy.
Sigh..,ok, here we go again.
To bet successfully one must know ones advantages and disadvantages, not in a kumbaya-Jesus-loves-me way but to take one's disadvantages into account and adopt mitigation strategies to cope with them. I am persnickety about detail but I try to minimise risk, which is a contraindicator for online betting as I get swamped by the detail and start buying on the heights and selling on the dips, a guaranteed loss maker. Instead I do physical betting in shops, which suits me better: do research, formulate plan, execute plan, continue until done. The thirty minutes taxi ride to the bookies also suits as by the time I arrived I am settled in my intent and can execute it quickly. The only recent adaptation to this pattern is the use of automated terminals instead of staff: this is why I bet £5 on Kemi in early September as a dry run for larger sums later.
I have detailed my betting both in the comments and in my "Chronicle of a Bet Foretold" article series, also on PB. The latest of the CoaBF series was entitled "Thin Gruel" which was published at the time of the UK General Election.
On topic it doesn't matter what the voters think, they're fickle and the next election isn't until 2029. Alanbrooke says,
if she inflicts pain on the masses she may be joining Sue Gray after Starmer has one of his ruthless spells
...but Kier Starmer isn't like that, he plays the long game. There was a time early in his leadership when he was doing party reforms instead of early policy announcements and people here were saying Labour needed to get rid of him but he just carried on and got the stuff done he needed to get done. He's not going to boot out his chancellor for doing her job.Assuming that she does the job he wants her to do. We don't really know what that job is, so we won't know whether she's failed it until she's gone.
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
I never thought I’d see a sentence like “I won’t be able to get to the bookies until Saturday” on this website.
As I may have mentioned, I travel a lot for work. Friday is one of those days, and I will no doubt post something like "I am on a train and it's awful" tomorrow. Getting from A to B requires taxis and trains to a set timetable as A and B are over a hundred miles apart. Diverting to a bookies is costly in time as bookmaker X is a fair way from station B. I can delay it to Saturday even though bookmakers are a bit fraught on Saturday because people bet on horseracing for some reason, but it eats into my time.
It’s almost as if withdrawing cash then going to physical premises to put a bet on is an entirely pointless waste of time and energy.
It's almost as if constantly shitposting your personal preferences regarding physical cash is an entirely pointless waste of time and energy.
No.
Yes, literally, yes. You are the most boring t*** on here, and that's up against some stiff competition.
At least when Leon bangs on about AI he's half way to being articulate, and when the terf crowd show up there's at least a debate.
I don't actually know who the most boring man in the world is, but I'm sure you could give them a run for their money. Give it a rest. Talk about something else.
Crikey. Calm down.
I didn’t raise it, he did. He said he couldn’t get a bet on, for no good reason. I pointed out the fallacy, is all.
That's fair. I apologise.
Just, some people have a preference for doing things in person, paying in cash, etc. And there's really no need to argue with everyone who isn't signed up to the glorious Apple Pay revolution.
Aaron Rupar @atrupar · 1h Bill Clinton: I'm too old to gild a lily. Heck, I'm only two months younger than Donald Trump. But the good news for you is I will not spend 30 minutes swaying back and forth to music.
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
See my previous posts and articles about why I don't do that.
I’m supposed to go through your posts to ascertain why you don’t use Betfair?
Given that I've written about it many times, it's not as unreasonable as it sounds, especially as I covered it in the "thin gruel" article written earlier in the year. Broadly speaking the "Chronicle of a Bet Foretold" series covers it. I can go thru it again if you wish.
I can't remember the reason so Anabobazina isn't alone on this.
Assuming that she does the job he wants her to do. We don't really know what that job is, so we won't know whether she's failed it until she's gone.
I would assume it's to make things look good in 2029. The decisions to do that now are: - lots of tax revenue, so do any tax increase you might need that will be unpopular when you announce it - not too much debt, so do any spending cut you might need that will be unpopular when you announce it - hospitals, roads, railways etc built or very visibly being built, and that stuff has long lead times so get on with it
Glancing at Andrew Teale's list of 2024 council by elections I count no fewer than 7 by-elections on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and, I kid you not, even one on a Monday.
I know it happens occasionally, but I'm still outraged at all this non-Thursday stuff.
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
See my previous posts and articles about why I don't do that.
I’m supposed to go through your posts to ascertain why you don’t use Betfair?
Given that I've written about it many times, it's not as unreasonable as it sounds, especially as I covered it in the "thin gruel" article written earlier in the year. Broadly speaking the "Chronicle of a Bet Foretold" series covers it. I can go thru it again if you wish.
I can't remember the reason so Anabobazina isn't alone on this.
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
I never thought I’d see a sentence like “I won’t be able to get to the bookies until Saturday” on this website.
As I may have mentioned, I travel a lot for work. Friday is one of those days, and I will no doubt post something like "I am on a train and it's awful" tomorrow. Getting from A to B requires taxis and trains to a set timetable as A and B are over a hundred miles apart. Diverting to a bookies is costly in time as bookmaker X is a fair way from station B. I can delay it to Saturday even though bookmakers are a bit fraught on Saturday because people bet on horseracing for some reason, but it eats into my time.
It’s almost as if withdrawing cash then going to physical premises to put a bet on is an entirely pointless waste of time and energy.
It's almost as if constantly shitposting your personal preferences regarding physical cash is an entirely pointless waste of time and energy.
No.
Yes, literally, yes. You are the most boring t*** on here, and that's up against some stiff competition.
At least when Leon bangs on about AI he's half way to being articulate, and when the terf crowd show up there's at least a debate.
I don't actually know who the most boring man in the world is, but I'm sure you could give them a run for their money. Give it a rest. Talk about something else.
Crikey. Calm down.
I didn’t raise it, he did. He said he couldn’t get a bet on, for no good reason. I pointed out the fallacy, is all.
That's fair. I apologise.
Just, some people have a preference for doing things in person, paying in cash, etc. And there's really no need to argue with everyone who isn't signed up to the glorious Apple Pay revolution.
De gustibus non et disputandum.
No worries. And sure, as I also said, that’s up to him, but then he shouldn’t moan about the practice “eating into his time”. As someone said on the original threader he wrote, it’s rather like biking around France with a fridge then whining that doing so proved rather laborious.
Lib Dems finding it hard when actually in control of something. They hadn't lost here under current boundaries.
Equally surprising Labour defeat in beautiful Swindon. They had won there in nine out of the last ten elections, exception being in the 2021 glory year for Conservative. Even then, they only had 46% of the vote, as opposed to 48% this time.
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
I never thought I’d see a sentence like “I won’t be able to get to the bookies until Saturday” on this website.
As I may have mentioned, I travel a lot for work. Friday is one of those days, and I will no doubt post something like "I am on a train and it's awful" tomorrow. Getting from A to B requires taxis and trains to a set timetable as A and B are over a hundred miles apart. Diverting to a bookies is costly in time as bookmaker X is a fair way from station B. I can delay it to Saturday even though bookmakers are a bit fraught on Saturday because people bet on horseracing for some reason, but it eats into my time.
It’s almost as if withdrawing cash then going to physical premises to put a bet on is an entirely pointless waste of time and energy.
It's almost as if constantly shitposting your personal preferences regarding physical cash is an entirely pointless waste of time and energy.
No.
Yes, literally, yes. You are the most boring t*** on here, and that's up against some stiff competition.
At least when Leon bangs on about AI he's half way to being articulate, and when the terf crowd show up there's at least a debate.
I don't actually know who the most boring man in the world is, but I'm sure you could give them a run for their money. Give it a rest. Talk about something else.
Crikey. Calm down.
I didn’t raise it, he did. He said he couldn’t get a bet on, for no good reason. I pointed out the fallacy, is all.
That's fair. I apologise.
Just, some people have a preference for doing things in person, paying in cash, etc. And there's really no need to argue with everyone who isn't signed up to the glorious Apple Pay revolution.
De gustibus non et disputandum.
No worries. And sure, as I also said, that’s up to him, but then he shouldn’t moan about the practice “eating into his time”. As someone said on the original threader he wrote, it’s rather like biking around France with a fridge then whining that doing so proved rather laborious.
As requested by you, I have redescribed my rationale here. https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4994286/#Comment_4994286 . I did so as a courtesy to you. But having detailed my reasons I am not bound to defend them nor my person to you. I realise you approach life differently to me, but what works for you may not work for me.
Lib Dems finding it hard when actually in control of something. They hadn't lost here under current boundaries.
Equally surprising Labour defeat in beautiful Swindon. They had won there in nine out of the last ten elections, exception being in the 2021 glory year for Conservative. Even then, they only had 46% of the vote, as opposed to 48% this time.
Yes, by-elections can be odd but given how recent it was for the red wave to hit Swindon after 2 decades of Tory control I am surprised they've lost that seat so quickly.
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
I never thought I’d see a sentence like “I won’t be able to get to the bookies until Saturday” on this website.
As I may have mentioned, I travel a lot for work. Friday is one of those days, and I will no doubt post something like "I am on a train and it's awful" tomorrow. Getting from A to B requires taxis and trains to a set timetable as A and B are over a hundred miles apart. Diverting to a bookies is costly in time as bookmaker X is a fair way from station B. I can delay it to Saturday even though bookmakers are a bit fraught on Saturday because people bet on horseracing for some reason, but it eats into my time.
It’s almost as if withdrawing cash then going to physical premises to put a bet on is an entirely pointless waste of time and energy.
It's almost as if constantly shitposting your personal preferences regarding physical cash is an entirely pointless waste of time and energy.
No.
Yes, literally, yes. You are the most boring t*** on here, and that's up against some stiff competition.
At least when Leon bangs on about AI he's half way to being articulate, and when the terf crowd show up there's at least a debate.
I don't actually know who the most boring man in the world is, but I'm sure you could give them a run for their money. Give it a rest. Talk about something else.
Crikey. Calm down.
I didn’t raise it, he did. He said he couldn’t get a bet on, for no good reason. I pointed out the fallacy, is all.
That's fair. I apologise.
Just, some people have a preference for doing things in person, paying in cash, etc. And there's really no need to argue with everyone who isn't signed up to the glorious Apple Pay revolution.
De gustibus non et disputandum.
No worries. And sure, as I also said, that’s up to him, but then he shouldn’t moan about the practice “eating into his time”. As someone said on the original threader he wrote, it’s rather like biking around France with a fridge then whining that doing so proved rather laborious.
As requested by you, I have redescribed my rationale here. https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4994286/#Comment_4994286 . I did so as a courtesy to you. But having detailed my reasons I am not bound to defend them nor my person to you. I realise you approach life differently to me, but what works for you may not work for me.
You could simply have a mate put the bet on for you if you can’t bear to look at an exchange.
Arse. I went to the cash point to withdraw £100 to bet on Kemi, but Laddies closes at 10pm. Damn. The sword unsheathed must taste blood and I won't be able to get to a bookies until Saturday. It is a bad world. 👿
Have you tried this newfangled invention called the internet?
I never thought I’d see a sentence like “I won’t be able to get to the bookies until Saturday” on this website.
As I may have mentioned, I travel a lot for work. Friday is one of those days, and I will no doubt post something like "I am on a train and it's awful" tomorrow. Getting from A to B requires taxis and trains to a set timetable as A and B are over a hundred miles apart. Diverting to a bookies is costly in time as bookmaker X is a fair way from station B. I can delay it to Saturday even though bookmakers are a bit fraught on Saturday because people bet on horseracing for some reason, but it eats into my time.
It’s almost as if withdrawing cash then going to physical premises to put a bet on is an entirely pointless waste of time and energy.
It's almost as if constantly shitposting your personal preferences regarding physical cash is an entirely pointless waste of time and energy.
No.
Yes, literally, yes. You are the most boring t*** on here, and that's up against some stiff competition.
At least when Leon bangs on about AI he's half way to being articulate, and when the terf crowd show up there's at least a debate.
I don't actually know who the most boring man in the world is, but I'm sure you could give them a run for their money. Give it a rest. Talk about something else.
Crikey. Calm down.
I didn’t raise it, he did. He said he couldn’t get a bet on, for no good reason. I pointed out the fallacy, is all.
That's fair. I apologise.
Just, some people have a preference for doing things in person, paying in cash, etc. And there's really no need to argue with everyone who isn't signed up to the glorious Apple Pay revolution.
De gustibus non et disputandum.
No worries. And sure, as I also said, that’s up to him, but then he shouldn’t moan about the practice “eating into his time”. As someone said on the original threader he wrote, it’s rather like biking around France with a fridge then whining that doing so proved rather laborious.
As requested by you, I have redescribed my rationale here. https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4994286/#Comment_4994286 . I did so as a courtesy to you. But having detailed my reasons I am not bound to defend them nor my person to you. I realise you approach life differently to me, but what works for you may not work for me.
You could simply have a mate put the bet on for you if you can’t bear to look at an exchange.
"Having detailed my reasons I am not bound to defend them nor my person to you"
"..whereas Jenrick does not seem to believe in anything at all" Bit like Starmer then
Starmer seems to believe in the Rule of Law, not surprising considering his background. It's why he responded to the racist riots as he did, why he scrapped Rwanda, why he backed the Chagos transfer and why he now has a partial ban on arms exports to Israel. Agree with the decisions or not, they are all defined by him following legal judgements.
What I like, and what I presume floating voters like, about Badenoch, is that she’s a conviction politician. She’s a moralist, and I don’t believe we’ve really had one of those with the courage to be outspoken about it since Thatcher.
However, remain convinced that gaffes and or laziness will do for her. I also seriously doubt she has any real understanding of public policy or economics. (The latter is not necessarily fatal, look at Starmer.)
What will make or break her might not be any of that but rather whether she can inspire enough loyalty to prevent the party descending into infighting and I think she might. It will certainly be very difficult for the self-professed sensible centrists to portray her leadership as a sign that the party is too in hock to reactionary backwoodsmen.
OK in her case her leadership is a sign that the party is too in hock to reactionary backwoodswomen.
Didn't they have that problem for 49 days once before?
Tory gains all over. This really wasn't much of a honeymoon, was it?
I doubt more tax rumours are going to help.
On another topic, I went out this evening to take a picture or two of the comet. It is quite dim now although still well visible in binoculars between W and SW about 1hr after sunset.
I was caught by suprise by a line of about 40 satellites traversing the sky, each separated by about a degree. Obviously I realised straight away it was from the Starlink launch but I've never seen that before. Mental! These things are going to pollute the night sky (and at radio frequencies no doubt) like nothing else.
They wobble slightly so I assume they have a single offset solar panel and are rotating whilst in positioning phase.
Tory gains all over. This really wasn't much of a honeymoon, was it?
I doubt more tax rumours are going to help.
On another topic, I went out this evening to take a picture or two of the comet. It is quite dim now although still well visible in binoculars between W and SW about 1hr after sunset.
I was caught by suprise by a line of about 40 satellites traversing the sky, each separated by about a degree. Obviously I realised straight away it was from the Starlink launch but I've never seen that before. Mental! These things are going to pollute the night sky (and at radio frequencies no doubt) like nothing else.
They wobble slightly so I assume they have a single offset solar panel and are rotating whilst in positioning phase.
Being in government does awful things for a party's ability to hold local government by-election seats.
She's doing very well. Clearly thought through answers.
Tory party would be quite literally mad not to choose Kemi over Jenrick.
I have already voted for Jenrick over Kemi, as the Electoral Calculus poll showed last night he is more likely to win extra seats from Labour than Kemi is. The love for Kemi on here is mainly from people who would never vote Tory anyway
Interesting post, particularly the linking of the Trump betting market to other volatile markets such as bitcoin. Speculating, could shifting the Presidential market towards Trump be a way to pump up DJT stock so they can offload an even bigger position in that. My memory is that last time the betfair exchange market was several hundred million, currently it's around £90m, so potentially a lot of bets to be placed and money to be made if they can move the market.
How a win for either Jenrick or Badenoch will be a shift back to traditional community based conservatism and a rejection of free market liberal globalism and pure individual rights
I’d like Badenoch to win, just because my annoying friend confidently opines that the Tory party are too racist to choose her.
It would be a strange situation where Tory MPs in the all too frequent recent leadership contests have repeatedly nominated multiple non-white candidates with significant support, yet the Members just wouldn't bear such a candidate for the reason their racial characteristics. MPs are little different than the average Member after all.
I can 100% predict that my annoying friend will soon pivot to “The Tories are racist and they voted for Badenoch precisely because she makes them feel they are not racist”.
He has already started tentative suggestions in that direction.
Her leading the Tories is probably significant enough to gain some traction in the US news media so she could have an unusually high profile for a British leader of the opposition.
I just wonder if the announcement of her election on Nov 2 would offer floating voters in the US an image of a black woman leader in such a way as to make Harris' leadership less of a big step to vote for a couple of days later?
I very much doubt enough Americans would care about (or notice) the election here for it to make even 0.1% of a difference, sadly.
Paragraph 1 answer is No, because answer to Para 2 is Yes.
USers pay FAR less attention to UK politics than even non-PBer UKers do to US politics.
How a win for either Jenrick or Badenoch will be a shift back to traditional community based conservatism and a rejection of free market liberal globalism and pure individual rights
Interesting post, particularly the linking of the Trump betting market to other volatile markets such as bitcoin. Speculating, could shifting the Presidential market towards Trump be a way to pump up DJT stock so they can offload an even bigger position in that. My memory is that last time the betfair exchange market was several hundred million, currently it's around £90m, so potentially a lot of bets to be placed and money to be made if they can move the market.
The weird thing about this is that Bitcoin is the favoured cryptocurrency of the Biden administration. Their policy is to shut down trading in everything else and leave only Bitcoin.
I’d like Badenoch to win, just because my annoying friend confidently opines that the Tory party are too racist to choose her.
It would be a strange situation where Tory MPs in the all too frequent recent leadership contests have repeatedly nominated multiple non-white candidates with significant support, yet the Members just wouldn't bear such a candidate for the reason their racial characteristics. MPs are little different than the average Member after all.
I can 100% predict that my annoying friend will soon pivot to “The Tories are racist and they voted for Badenoch precisely because she makes them feel they are not racist”.
He has already started tentative suggestions in that direction.
Not the sort of place you'd expect a Tory gain from Labour, even if presumably it is in one of the Conservatives' better areas in the borough.
The strong trend at the moment is a sharp decline in the Labour vote almost everywhere, with a modest increase in the Conservative vote - and sometimes a surprisingly decent one.
🚨 NEW: Nearly 100 current and former Labour Party staff are going to battleground states in the US election to campaign for Kamala Harris, with the party offering to ‘sort your housing’"
She's doing very well. Clearly thought through answers.
Tory party would be quite literally mad not to choose Kemi over Jenrick.
I have already voted for Jenrick over Kemi, as the Electoral Calculus poll showed last night he is more likely to win extra seats from Labour than Kemi is. The love for Kemi on here is mainly from people who would never vote Tory anyway
@HYUFD my dear, there’s more to it than a single poll. Jenrick really would be an awful choice, appealing only to the absolute core.
🚨 NEW: Nearly 100 current and former Labour Party staff are going to battleground states in the US election to campaign for Kamala Harris, with the party offering to ‘sort your housing’"
Not the sort of place you'd expect a Tory gain from Labour, even if presumably it is in one of the Conservatives' better areas in the borough.
The strong trend at the moment is a sharp decline in the Labour vote almost everywhere, with a modest increase in the Conservative vote - and sometimes a surprisingly decent one.
"No one asked for Meta’s “AI chatbot” Like the metaverse before it, this new “innovation” could only appeal to someone as detached from reality as a tech billionaire. By Sarah Manavis"
She's doing very well. Clearly thought through answers.
Tory party would be quite literally mad not to choose Kemi over Jenrick.
I have already voted for Jenrick over Kemi, as the Electoral Calculus poll showed last night he is more likely to win extra seats from Labour than Kemi is. The love for Kemi on here is mainly from people who would never vote Tory anyway
@HYUFD my dear, there’s more to it than a single poll. Jenrick really would be an awful choice, appealing only to the absolute core.
In July we didn't even win all the absolute core so that would be a start if he gets them all voting Tory again
Aaron Rupar @atrupar · 1h Bill Clinton: I'm too old to gild a lily. Heck, I'm only two months younger than Donald Trump. But the good news for you is I will not spend 30 minutes swaying back and forth to music.
Not the sort of place you'd expect a Tory gain from Labour, even if presumably it is in one of the Conservatives' better areas in the borough.
The strong trend at the moment is a sharp decline in the Labour vote almost everywhere, with a modest increase in the Conservative vote - and sometimes a surprisingly decent one.
I don’t think one should assume now, that the Conservatives will fall back in the next round of local elections, in 2025. Labour’s NEV could fall to 20% or so.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4940339-harris-jabs-at-trump-al-smith-dinner-video/ ...Harris did not attend the dinner in person as she campaigned in Wisconsin. Instead, she addressed the event via a video that featured comedian Molly Shannon portraying her “Saturday Night Live” character Mary Katherine Gallagher, who is a Catholic school girl. “So tell me something, I’m giving a speech. Do you have some thoughts about what I might say tonight?” Harris asks Shannon in the video. Shannon’s advice included, “Don’t lie. Thou shall not bear false witness to thy neighbor.” ...
This compound noun essentially translates to "crab-innards-meal-concern", encapsulating the feeling I have at this precise moment, which is “a concern that I will soon be dining on crab innards”
This is because I am in a 1300 year old Japanese spa town (Kinosaki-onsen) in Kasei province, on the Sea of Japan, which is known for this delicacy. And I’ve just been told that my famous ryokan is giving me the traditional tasting menu, which is likely to feature this delicacy
This compound noun essentially translates to "crab-innards-meal-concern", encapsulating the feeling I have at this precise moment, which is “a concern that I will soon be dining on crab innards”
This is because I am in a 1300 year old Japanese spa town (Kinosaki-onsen) in Kasei province, on the Sea of Japan, which is known for this delicacy. And I’ve just been told that my famous ryokan is giving me the traditional tasting menu, which is likely to feature this delicacy
You’re welcome
*evinces Politiknerdbefriedigungsgenugtuung*
What's the weather like? I gather Japan has had brutal heattwaves all summer.
This compound noun essentially translates to "crab-innards-meal-concern", encapsulating the feeling I have at this precise moment, which is “a concern that I will soon be dining on crab innards”
This is because I am in a 1300 year old Japanese spa town (Kinosaki-onsen) in Kasei province, on the Sea of Japan, which is known for this delicacy. And I’ve just been told that my famous ryokan is giving me the traditional tasting menu, which is likely to feature this delicacy
You’re welcome
*evinces Politiknerdbefriedigungsgenugtuung*
What's the weather like? I gather Japan has had brutal heattwaves all summer.
Perfect summer holiday weather - 29C and cloudless. But it shouldn’t be
That’s about 8C more than normal. This is mid October
Ron Filipkowski @RonFilipkowski · 4h Melania finally made a public appearance with her beloved husband tonight. Just a couple of love birds having a great time.
This compound noun essentially translates to "crab-innards-meal-concern", encapsulating the feeling I have at this precise moment, which is “a concern that I will soon be dining on crab innards”
This is because I am in a 1300 year old Japanese spa town (Kinosaki-onsen) in Kasei province, on the Sea of Japan, which is known for this delicacy. And I’ve just been told that my famous ryokan is giving me the traditional tasting menu, which is likely to feature this delicacy
You’re welcome
*evinces Politiknerdbefriedigungsgenugtuung*
What's the weather like? I gather Japan has had brutal heattwaves all summer.
Perfect summer holiday weather - 29C and cloudless. But it shouldn’t be
That’s about 8C more than normal. This is mid October
Are they commenting on it? Seems endless heat all summer with records being smashed all over the place. I can't recall hearing anything about Japan and climate change/action.
So the last video of Yahya Sinwar alive shows him, sans one hand, throwing a stick at a drone.
He killed thousands of his own co-religionists as well as those of other religions. Those crying crocodile tears for him should consider he killed far more Palestinians than Jews.
Just had a wonderful lunch of the celebrated local crab croquettes and a plate of salt grilled sweet Sakura prawns, with two excellent cold beers in this relatively famous and (by low Japanese standards) very pretty and ancient willow-and-canal spa town and it was £12
She's doing very well. Clearly thought through answers.
Tory party would be quite literally mad not to choose Kemi over Jenrick.
I have already voted for Jenrick over Kemi, as the Electoral Calculus poll showed last night he is more likely to win extra seats from Labour than Kemi is. The love for Kemi on here is mainly from people who would never vote Tory anyway
There is a lot of debate hype. So I've stuck £10 on Jenrick for fun. I don't mind losing the tenner, and some of the Badenoch-gasm takes on here are sounding foolish.
Just had a wonderful lunch of the celebrated local crab croquettes and a plate of salt grilled sweet Sakura prawns, with two excellent cold beers in this relatively famous and (by low Japanese standards) very pretty and ancient willow-and-canal spa town and it was £12
The Yen is so weak
I had a British friend over recently and we went up to a really good restaurant by Lake Chuzenji. At the end I came back from the loo find him in a heated argument with the staff. He thought they must have got the bill wrong, it couldn't possibly be that cheap.
Comments
I very much doubt enough Americans would care about (or notice) the election here for it to make even 0.1% of a difference, sadly.
@KamalaHQ
·
36m
Vice President Harris to MAGA hecklers: “Oh you guys are at the wrong rally. I think you meant to go to the smaller one down the street”
https://nitter.poast.org/Domahhhh
At least when Leon bangs on about AI he's half way to being articulate, and when the terf crowd show up there's at least a debate.
I don't actually know who the most boring man in the world is, but I'm sure you could give them a run for their money. Give it a rest. Talk about something else.
Which is up to you, but then don’t whine that you can’t get a bet on until Saturday when you could just be rational and use Betfair!
Crossrail 2 is a fraction of the price and has a much higher cost-benefit ratio.
I didn’t raise it, he did. He said he couldn’t get a bet on, for no good reason. I pointed out the fallacy, is all.
To bet successfully one must know ones advantages and disadvantages, not in a kumbaya-Jesus-loves-me way but to take one's disadvantages into account and adopt mitigation strategies to cope with them. I am persnickety about detail but I try to minimise risk, which is a contraindicator for online betting as I get swamped by the detail and start buying on the heights and selling on the dips, a guaranteed loss maker. Instead I do physical betting in shops, which suits me better: do research, formulate plan, execute plan, continue until done. The thirty minutes taxi ride to the bookies also suits as by the time I arrived I am settled in my intent and can execute it quickly. The only recent adaptation to this pattern is the use of automated terminals instead of staff: this is why I bet £5 on Kemi in early September as a dry run for larger sums later.
I have detailed my betting both in the comments and in my "Chronicle of a Bet Foretold" article series, also on PB. The latest of the CoaBF series was entitled "Thin Gruel" which was published at the time of the UK General Election.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1847045173844627933?t=zZpSidSHYExahtWvxMs9Ig&s=19
Just, some people have a preference for doing things in person, paying in cash, etc. And there's really no need to argue with everyone who isn't signed up to the glorious Apple Pay revolution.
De gustibus non et disputandum.
Aaron Rupar
@atrupar
·
1h
Bill Clinton: I'm too old to gild a lily. Heck, I'm only two months younger than Donald Trump. But the good news for you is I will not spend 30 minutes swaying back and forth to music.
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1847017933987250606
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1847046734590988795?t=DsfmxdCvteVqPFpqW2Gx-g&s=19
- lots of tax revenue, so do any tax increase you might need that will be unpopular when you announce it
- not too much debt, so do any spending cut you might need that will be unpopular when you announce it
- hospitals, roads, railways etc built or very visibly being built, and that stuff has long lead times so get on with it
Badenoch 72%
Jenrick 28%
https://x.com/renewal2030/status/1847010496307724589?t=gjks9tzGJFj0KQbAQE4TKA&s=19
I know it happens occasionally, but I'm still outraged at all this non-Thursday stuff.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4994286/#Comment_4994286
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1847047680599453835?t=BKBqDTv0MmLgVi4q2W1o5g&s=19
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1847048246931476702?t=z0wK-K6_SM8zbDR21_7wwA&s=19
Equally surprising Labour defeat in beautiful Swindon. They had won there in nine out of the last ten elections, exception being in the 2021 glory year for Conservative. Even then, they only had 46% of the vote, as opposed to 48% this time.
🌳 CON: 49.3% (+18.7)
🔶 LDM: 40.7% (-13.0)
🌍 GRN: 6.1% (-0.9)
🌹 LAB: 3.8% (-4.8)
Conservative GAIN from Liberal Democrat.
Changes w/ 2024."
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1847053055058989131?t=aTTFGsp6droTsGkFm_GoXQ&s=19
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1847053854287724844?t=sp2vSBf7zwZgk6cXNdjYeA&s=19
Didn't they have that problem for 49 days once before?
I can tell you are excited. Keep it up!
I doubt more tax rumours are going to help.
On another topic, I went out this evening to take a picture or two of the comet. It is quite dim now although still well visible in binoculars between W and SW about 1hr after sunset.
I was caught by suprise by a line of about 40 satellites traversing the sky, each separated by about a degree. Obviously I realised straight away it was from the Starlink launch but I've never seen that before. Mental! These things are going to pollute the night sky (and at radio frequencies no doubt) like nothing else.
They wobble slightly so I assume they have a single offset solar panel and are rotating whilst in positioning phase.
Comet A3 plus Starlink Launch (trail from two groups).
We may come to regret thousands of these satellites being in the sky (and eventually falling out of it).
Though carry on, not a market I'm going to dabble in
Speculating, could shifting the Presidential market towards Trump be a way to pump up DJT stock so they can offload an even bigger position in that.
My memory is that last time the betfair exchange market was several hundred million, currently it's around £90m, so potentially a lot of bets to be placed and money to be made if they can move the market.
Michigan Harris 49% Trump 47%
Arizona Harris 49% Trump 48%
Nevada Harris 49% Trump 45%
Georgia Trump 49% Harris 48%
Wisconsin Trump 48% Harris 47%
Pennsylvania Harris 49% Trump 48%
North Carolina Trump 49% Harris 48%
https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-election-state-polls
https://conservativehome.com/2024/10/17/louise-brown-we-need-to-rethink-the-right-old-labels-fail-to-capture-conservative-dividing-lines/
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-chat-with-nate-silver?utm_source=podcast-email&publication_id=159185&post_id=150351899&utm_campaign=email-play-on-substack&utm_content=watch_now_button&r=f388s&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
https://x.com/UKIP/status/1847002494263599332
USers pay FAR less attention to UK politics than even non-PBer UKers do to US politics.
@PolitlcsUK
🚨 NEW: Nearly 100 current and former Labour Party staff are going to battleground states in the US election to campaign for Kamala Harris, with the party offering to ‘sort your housing’"
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1846859483428856266
That is, unless Kamala plans to revoke the declaration of independence.
Like the metaverse before it, this new “innovation” could only appeal to someone as detached from reality as a tech billionaire.
By Sarah Manavis"
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2024/10/no-one-asked-for-metas-ai-chatbot
Its amazing how quickly Japan goes from endless urban sprawl - which suddenly ends - to genuine wilds
https://youtu.be/XI0MUoW28VE
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4940339-harris-jabs-at-trump-al-smith-dinner-video/
...Harris did not attend the dinner in person as she campaigned in Wisconsin. Instead, she addressed the event via a video that featured comedian Molly Shannon portraying her “Saturday Night Live” character Mary Katherine Gallagher, who is a Catholic school girl.
“So tell me something, I’m giving a speech. Do you have some thoughts about what I might say tonight?” Harris asks Shannon in the video.
Shannon’s advice included, “Don’t lie. Thou shall not bear false witness to thy neighbor.”
...
Let me break it down:
Krabbe: crab
Eingeweide: innards
Mahlzeit: meal
Besorgnis: concern
This compound noun essentially translates to "crab-innards-meal-concern", encapsulating the feeling I have at this precise moment, which is “a concern that I will soon be dining on crab innards”
This is because I am in a 1300 year old Japanese spa town (Kinosaki-onsen) in Kasei province, on the Sea of Japan, which is known for this delicacy. And I’ve just been told that my famous ryokan is giving me the traditional tasting menu, which is likely to feature this delicacy
You’re welcome
*evinces Politiknerdbefriedigungsgenugtuung*
That’s about 8C more than normal. This is mid October
@RonFilipkowski
·
4h
Melania finally made a public appearance with her beloved husband tonight. Just a couple of love birds having a great time.
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1847080392920121353
He killed thousands of his own co-religionists as well as those of other religions. Those crying crocodile tears for him should consider he killed far more Palestinians than Jews.
Just had a wonderful lunch of the celebrated local crab croquettes and a plate of salt grilled sweet Sakura prawns, with two excellent cold beers in this relatively famous and (by low Japanese standards) very pretty and ancient willow-and-canal spa town and it was £12
The Yen is so weak