Georgia early voting has started - and numbers are massively up on 2024. Up by more than 200,000 on the same numbers in 2020.
Harris holds a 17% advantage over Trump in this early voting - c 80 million. Trump holds a 9% advantage on those voting on the day - c.65 million. Do the maths...
Total votes cast in Georgia in 2020 were 2,473,633 for Biden, 2,461,854 for Trump. It was that razor thin.
I have been in London for 48 hours working with a group of disabled people on a theatre trip.
So far, I’ve had to physically block six cyclists who ran a red light and then tried to cut straight across the front of a wheelchair user which would have caused a crash.
WTF London cyclists? Do you have to be utter Tristram Hunts?
Lycra warriors are Stewards of the Bar throughout the UK.
My wife has just exchanged her stunning silver with a red soft top Mercedes cabriolet with a private plate that spells her name in full, for something very much more demure and less offensive to cyclists after she was threatened with f-bombs, c- bombs and a 28" Campagnolo front wheel thrust into her face through the open window of her car for having the temerity to warn them of her presence as they rode two abreast on a moderately narrow road.
The angry one was clearly not a Conservative voter!
Is "had the temerity to warn them of her presence as they rode two abreast" a euphemism for "hooted at them to stop their completley legal cycling because she wasn't prepared to wait for a safe place to overtake"?
If you're overtaking legally and safely it is, of course, better for the motorist if the cyclists are two abreast than if they aren't, for reasons which become clear once you stop and think.
I did explain the road was too narrow to overtake when cyclists were two abreast.
The police took the issue extremely seriously. Having followed and unable to pass for half a mile and assuming they were unaware of her presence she made them aware with a single blast on the horn. The one rider was fine but the older guy reeled around and stopped the car. His response was to call my wife a "f****** c***" and thrust his front wheel through the open window into her face, the top was down "I've got this on camera you f****** c***". The c*** did indeed f*** off when she said "so have I". If you consider that to be a suitable response to a lone woman making two cyclists aware of the presence of a motor vehicle you need to revisit the Highway Code and several other codes.
I f***** despise Lycra cyclists.
I don't get this desire to 'other' people. The guy you describe sounds like a complete twat, but that's not a reason to despise all cyclists who dress in lycra. I've come across twat drivers, twat cyclists and twat pedestrians, but given that I'm a driver, cyclist and pedestrian I don't find it useful to generalise. My experience has been that most drivers are considerate to cyclists, wait and give space. Most cyclists obey red lights round here. Most pedestrians are very accommodating when I encounter them on a shared path.
This compound noun essentially translates to "crab-innards-meal-concern", encapsulating the feeling I have at this precise moment, which is “a concern that I will soon be dining on crab innards”
This is because I am in a 1300 year old Japanese spa town (Kinosaki-onsen) in Kasei province, on the Sea of Japan, which is known for this delicacy. And I’ve just been told that my famous ryokan is giving me the traditional tasting menu, which is likely to feature this delicacy
You’re welcome
*evinces Politiknerdbefriedigungsgenugtuung*
What's the weather like? I gather Japan has had brutal heattwaves all summer.
Perfect summer holiday weather - 29C and cloudless. But it shouldn’t be
That’s about 8C more than normal. This is mid October
Are they commenting on it? Seems endless heat all summer with records being smashed all over the place. I can't recall hearing anything about Japan and climate change/action.
Yup, abnormally hot weather is definitely low-key newsworthy.
As far as climate change action goes there's loads of solar, a bit of wind, and some offshore wind finally getting built out. Insulation of new houses is really good, whereas it used to be non-existent. However they're still a bit hobbled by the fact that they built a whole plan around nuclear, and then they had that issue with the tsunami and the hydrogen explosions. After which the elites sort of thought the public would get over it so they havet really committed to renewables as much as they could, but also the public hasn't got over it so there's also not much nuclear.
This points to a narrow Harris win unless I'm mistaken.
It would mean the only state to flip was Georgia.
In my view Trump is more likely to win GA than NC. Harris looks pretty good in NC. If there’s a state that looks a bit shaky it is NV, but NV is always close and the fact Rosen appears fo be well up in the senate race bodes well.
I’m still confident of a decisive win for Harris. Although interestingly it looks like the Dem vote may be more efficient than in the last few cycles. Signs that the Rep vote may increase a % or two in places they can’t win, whilst the Dem vote is holding up where it needs to.
Where I feel the polls are missing the zeitgeist is enthusiasm and how that transfers to likelihood to vote. Dems are more fired up than since 2008. MAGA feels much less so. Dems are crushing the Reps in funding. Trump looks tired, old and beaten. Dems have Dobbs, Reps have snark and namecalling.
This compound noun essentially translates to "crab-innards-meal-concern", encapsulating the feeling I have at this precise moment, which is “a concern that I will soon be dining on crab innards”
This is because I am in a 1300 year old Japanese spa town (Kinosaki-onsen) in Kasei province, on the Sea of Japan, which is known for this delicacy. And I’ve just been told that my famous ryokan is giving me the traditional tasting menu, which is likely to feature this delicacy
You’re welcome
*evinces Politiknerdbefriedigungsgenugtuung*
What's the weather like? I gather Japan has had brutal heattwaves all summer.
Perfect summer holiday weather - 29C and cloudless. But it shouldn’t be
That’s about 8C more than normal. This is mid October
Are they commenting on it? Seems endless heat all summer with records being smashed all over the place. I can't recall hearing anything about Japan and climate change/action.
Yup, abnormally hot weather is definitely low-key newsworthy.
As far as climate change action goes there's loads of solar, a bit of wind, and some offshore wind finally getting built out. Insulation of new houses is really good, whereas it used to be non-existent. However they're still a bit hobbled by the fact that they built a whole plan around nuclear, and then they had that issue with the tsunami and the hydrogen explosions. After which the elites sort of thought the public would get over it so they havet really committed to renewables as much as they could, but also the public hasn't got over it so there's also not much nuclear.
This compound noun essentially translates to "crab-innards-meal-concern", encapsulating the feeling I have at this precise moment, which is “a concern that I will soon be dining on crab innards”
This is because I am in a 1300 year old Japanese spa town (Kinosaki-onsen) in Kasei province, on the Sea of Japan, which is known for this delicacy. And I’ve just been told that my famous ryokan is giving me the traditional tasting menu, which is likely to feature this delicacy
You’re welcome
*evinces Politiknerdbefriedigungsgenugtuung*
What's the weather like? I gather Japan has had brutal heattwaves all summer.
Perfect summer holiday weather - 29C and cloudless. But it shouldn’t be
That’s about 8C more than normal. This is mid October
Are they commenting on it? Seems endless heat all summer with records being smashed all over the place. I can't recall hearing anything about Japan and climate change/action.
Yup, abnormally hot weather is definitely low-key newsworthy.
As far as climate change action goes there's loads of solar, a bit of wind, and some offshore wind finally getting built out. Insulation of new houses is really good, whereas it used to be non-existent. However they're still a bit hobbled by the fact that they built a whole plan around nuclear, and then they had that issue with the tsunami and the hydrogen explosions. After which the elites sort of thought the public would get over it so they havet really committed to renewables as much as they could, but also the public hasn't got over it so there's also not much nuclear.
A lot of electric vehicles tho? Unless the Japanese have perfected REALLY quiet internal combustion
Not the sort of place you'd expect a Tory gain from Labour, even if presumably it is in one of the Conservatives' better areas in the borough.
The strong trend at the moment is a sharp decline in the Labour vote almost everywhere, with a modest increase in the Conservative vote - and sometimes a surprisingly decent one.
I don’t think one should assume now, that the Conservatives will fall back in the next round of local elections, in 2025. Labour’s NEV could fall to 20% or so.
The by elections in aggregate are not quite saying that yet, though there is chance for v things to change.
The mega Thursday last week was pretty consistent with the September aggregate.
The very large majority of by-elections are to replace councillors first c elected in 2022 or 2023, so Labour are defending a solid NEV lead in most. Also, because a lot of the by-elections are to replace newly minted, mainly Labour, MPs (on mega-Thursday, Labour defended an average of around 43% against a 35% average NEV), a little proportional swing can come into play.
That all told, mega Thursday had:
Labour down by about 10 points on average, so NEV equivalent around 25. Tories and LDs up by about 2 on average, so NEV equivalent about 29 and 21 respectively. Greens where they compete up by an average of about 3-4 points. Reform, who don't have much of a baseline, averaging about 13% where they stand
Several months to go, but I wouldn't be surprised for the 2025 round to be similar to this, and given that is based on 2021 (which had a 7 point Tory NEV lead) that would imply:
Con losses particularly to LD Labour steady or fairly minor losses
I have been in London for 48 hours working with a group of disabled people on a theatre trip.
So far, I’ve had to physically block six cyclists who ran a red light and then tried to cut straight across the front of a wheelchair user which would have caused a crash.
WTF London cyclists? Do you have to be utter Tristram Hunts?
Lycra warriors are Stewards of the Bar throughout the UK.
My wife has just exchanged her stunning silver with a red soft top Mercedes cabriolet with a private plate that spells her name in full, for something very much more demure and less offensive to cyclists after she was threatened with f-bombs, c- bombs and a 28" Campagnolo front wheel thrust into her face through the open window of her car for having the temerity to warn them of her presence as they rode two abreast on a moderately narrow road.
The angry one was clearly not a Conservative voter!
Is "had the temerity to warn them of her presence as they rode two abreast" a euphemism for "hooted at them to stop their completley legal cycling because she wasn't prepared to wait for a safe place to overtake"?
If you're overtaking legally and safely it is, of course, better for the motorist if the cyclists are two abreast than if they aren't, for reasons which become clear once you stop and think.
I did explain the road was too narrow to overtake when cyclists were two abreast.
The police took the issue extremely seriously. Having followed and unable to pass for half a mile and assuming they were unaware of her presence she made them aware with a single blast on the horn. The one rider was fine but the older guy reeled around and stopped the car. His response was to call my wife a "f****** c***" and thrust his front wheel through the open window into her face, the top was down "I've got this on camera you f****** c***". The c*** did indeed f*** off when she said "so have I". If you consider that to be a suitable response to a lone woman making two cyclists aware of the presence of a motor vehicle you need to revisit the Highway Code and several other codes.
I f***** despise Lycra cyclists.
I don't get this desire to 'other' people. The guy you describe sounds like a complete twat, but that's not a reason to despise all cyclists who dress in lycra. I've come across twat drivers, twat cyclists and twat pedestrians, but given that I'm a driver, cyclist and pedestrian I don't find it useful to generalise. My experience has been that most drivers are considerate to cyclists, wait and give space. Most cyclists obey red lights round here. Most pedestrians are very accommodating when I encounter them on a shared path.
There is a particular breed in london. Extremely pumped up, male, 25-50, going as fast as he possibly can and angry at anything that gets in the way - red lights, cars, pedestrians, small children
It’s arguably a sensible Darwinian reaction to the real dangers of london cycling - as discussed on here, the polite cyclists get killed
But it’s gone over the top and now they are simply aggressive and I imagine the hardcore cycling feeds that testosterone surge. The result is too often unpleasant
In london I never see “aggressive pedestrians”. I occasionally see aggressive drivers. More often I see aggressive joggers. But the cyclists are the worst and most likely to be punchy
That sounds like it would be a lot of work. Well, work, anyway. Much easier to apologise for things afterwards, and who minds about reputation?
No, in general they don't check the detail enough afaics, even when obvious. Like the rest of our media. I do think the BBC politicise less, however, in general.
Example: back in around 2017 or 2018 I challenged the Daily Politics on one of their guest video reports from a campaigner claiming that there were only I think 6 disabled MPs in Parliament.
It was trivial to see that the list did not include Theresa May, the Prime Minister who was walking around with a Type I Diabetic Freestyle Libre blood glucose sensor on her arm which showed whenever she wore a short sleeved or sleeveless dress.
She had been diagnosed diabetic in 2013 and had been giving public interviews since.
The response was 'we don't have time to check'.
If you similarly check the "only 5, or 6, or 9, disabled people in Parliament" which still run, referring back to the earlier fake news story, you will not find the Speaker on any of the lists even now.
Back in 2018 it was a couple of hours to identify 2 or 3 dozen from APPG Group member biographies.
Interesting. And they put 'democracy/voting rights' top of their list of issues.
There is a link to the tables in the text, allowing a bit more scrutiny than most US polls. The sample was 66% from Georgia and NC so heavily weighted by those states. Seem enthusiastic to vote too FWIW.
Not much evidence of the "Black Men voting Trump" phenomenon being ramped here recently.
That sounds like it would be a lot of work. Well, work, anyway. Much easier to apologise for things afterwards, and who minds about reputation?
No, in general they don't check the detail enough afaics, even when obvious. Like the rest of our media. I do think the BBC politicise less, however, in general.
Example: back in around 2017 or 2018 I challenged the Daily Politics on one of their guest video reports from a campaigner claiming that there were only I think 6 disabled MPs in Parliament.
It was trivial to see that the list did not include Theresa May, the Prime Minister who was walking around with a Type I Diabetic Freestyle Libre blood glucose sensor on her arm which showed whenever she wore a short sleeved or sleeveless dress.
She had been diagnosed diabetic in 2013 and had been giving public interviews since.
The response was 'we don't have time to check'.
If you similarly check the "only 5, or 6, or 9, disabled people in Parliament" which still run, referring back to the earlier fake news story, you will not find the Speaker on any of the lists even now.
Back in 2018 it was a couple of hours to identify 2 or 3 dozen from APPG Group member biographies.
Our shitty media and its zombie news stories.
I wouldn't describe Type 1 diabetes as a disability, more as a treatable medical condition. If someone was blind or had an amputation as a result of diabetes then it could be regarded as a disability, but not otherwise.
You’re disabled under the Equality Act 2010 if you have a physical or mental impairment that has a ‘substantial’ and ‘long-term’ negative effect on your ability to do normal daily activities. Diabetes on its own would not meet this definition.
This compound noun essentially translates to "crab-innards-meal-concern", encapsulating the feeling I have at this precise moment, which is “a concern that I will soon be dining on crab innards”
This is because I am in a 1300 year old Japanese spa town (Kinosaki-onsen) in Kasei province, on the Sea of Japan, which is known for this delicacy. And I’ve just been told that my famous ryokan is giving me the traditional tasting menu, which is likely to feature this delicacy
@darrengrimes_ Robert Jenrick says his values have never changed.
He was a key liberal Cameron acolyte. He campaigned to Remain chained to Brussels. For Theresa May. For each iteration of Mrs May’s ‘deal’. For a party moving to the centre. I think it’s fair enough to say his views have changed! #GBNews
This points to a narrow Harris win unless I'm mistaken.
It would mean the only state to flip was Georgia.
In my view Trump is more likely to win GA than NC. Harris looks pretty good in NC. If there’s a state that looks a bit shaky it is NV, but NV is always close and the fact Rosen appears fo be well up in the senate race bodes well.
I’m still confident of a decisive win for Harris. Although interestingly it looks like the Dem vote may be more efficient than in the last few cycles. Signs that the Rep vote may increase a % or two in places they can’t win, whilst the Dem vote is holding up where it needs to.
Where I feel the polls are missing the zeitgeist is enthusiasm and how that transfers to likelihood to vote. Dems are more fired up than since 2008. MAGA feels much less so. Dems are crushing the Reps in funding. Trump looks tired, old and beaten. Dems have Dobbs, Reps have snark and namecalling.
Can’t wait for it to be over, mind.
Turnout is still the big unknown. If on the day voting also breaks records ....
Unusual turnout is one way polling loses accuracy.
Comments
Harris holds a 17% advantage over Trump in this early voting - c 80 million. Trump holds a 9% advantage on those voting on the day - c.65 million. Do the maths...
Total votes cast in Georgia in 2020 were 2,473,633 for Biden, 2,461,854 for Trump. It was that razor thin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5AahGtkNNg
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/17/harris-trump-black-swing-state-voters
84% for Kamala, 8% for Trump, 8% undecided.
As far as climate change action goes there's loads of solar, a bit of wind, and some offshore wind finally getting built out. Insulation of new houses is really good, whereas it used to be non-existent. However they're still a bit hobbled by the fact that they built a whole plan around nuclear, and then they had that issue with the tsunami and the hydrogen explosions. After which the elites sort of thought the public would get over it so they havet really committed to renewables as much as they could, but also the public hasn't got over it so there's also not much nuclear.
I’m still confident of a decisive win for Harris. Although interestingly it looks like the Dem vote may be more efficient than in the last few cycles. Signs that the Rep vote may increase a % or two in places they can’t win, whilst the Dem vote is holding up where it needs to.
Where I feel the polls are missing the zeitgeist is enthusiasm and how that transfers to likelihood to vote. Dems are more fired up than since 2008. MAGA feels much less so. Dems are crushing the Reps in funding. Trump looks tired, old and beaten. Dems have Dobbs, Reps have snark and namecalling.
Can’t wait for it to be over, mind.
F1: no more fastest lap point in 2025:
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/fastest-lap-point-to-be-scrapped-in-2025-after-latest-fia-world-motor-sport.4pUjDzWnGRN7KVWENLc1BY
The mega Thursday last week was pretty consistent with the September aggregate.
The very large majority of by-elections are to replace councillors first c elected in 2022 or 2023, so Labour are defending a solid NEV lead in most. Also, because a lot of the by-elections are to replace newly minted, mainly Labour, MPs (on mega-Thursday, Labour defended an average of around 43% against a 35% average NEV), a little proportional swing can come into play.
That all told, mega Thursday had:
Labour down by about 10 points on average, so NEV equivalent around 25.
Tories and LDs up by about 2 on average, so NEV equivalent about 29 and 21 respectively.
Greens where they compete up by an average of about 3-4 points.
Reform, who don't have much of a baseline, averaging about 13% where they stand
Several months to go, but I wouldn't be surprised for the 2025 round to be similar to this, and given that is based on 2021 (which had a 7 point Tory NEV lead) that would imply:
Con losses particularly to LD
Labour steady or fairly minor losses
It’s arguably a sensible Darwinian reaction to the real dangers of london cycling - as discussed on here, the polite cyclists get killed
But it’s gone over the top and now they are simply aggressive and I imagine the hardcore cycling feeds that testosterone surge. The result is too often unpleasant
In london I never see “aggressive pedestrians”. I occasionally see aggressive drivers. More often I see aggressive joggers. But the cyclists are the worst and most likely to be punchy
Example: back in around 2017 or 2018 I challenged the Daily Politics on one of their guest video reports from a campaigner claiming that there were only I think 6 disabled MPs in Parliament.
It was trivial to see that the list did not include Theresa May, the Prime Minister who was walking around with a Type I Diabetic Freestyle Libre blood glucose sensor on her arm which showed whenever she wore a short sleeved or sleeveless dress.
She had been diagnosed diabetic in 2013 and had been giving public interviews since.
The response was 'we don't have time to check'.
If you similarly check the "only 5, or 6, or 9, disabled people in Parliament" which still run, referring back to the earlier fake news story, you will not find the Speaker on any of the lists even now.
Back in 2018 it was a couple of hours to identify 2 or 3 dozen from APPG Group member biographies.
Our shitty media and its zombie news stories.
NEW THREAD
Not much evidence of the "Black Men voting Trump" phenomenon being ramped here recently.
You’re disabled under the Equality Act 2010 if you have a physical or mental impairment that has a ‘substantial’ and ‘long-term’ negative effect on your ability to do normal daily activities. Diabetes on its own would not meet this definition.
If on the day voting also breaks records ....
Unusual turnout is one way polling loses accuracy.