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I agree with Sir John Curtice – politicalbetting.com

13

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  • sladeslade Posts: 2,163
    Following the death of Salmond I have an image of a fat man with ambitions of world domination and a belief that they are an object of desire to women. Other members of the group include Trump, Johnson, Berlusconi, and Mussolini.
  • My mother-in-law likes hers. You can cook a chicken in it and it's as good as roasted in the oven, but in one-third the time. Sausages have also cooked very well.

    Sweet potato was a bit of a failure, as was the attempt at poached eggs, but, yes, my initial scepticism was misplaced.
    Lost over a hundred pounds (in weight) when I moved over to using an air fryer for cooking things.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 857
    Leon said:

    Really? It's that good? Why??

    Genuine question. I probably have room for one more device in my small but lovable kitchen

    An air fryer is that much of a boon?

    PB has already persuaded me to get a smartwatch, and that was a great decision, so an air fryer as well?
    Basically anything that you want to be crispy comes out way better in an air fryer. They're kind of misnamed in a way as they're really just hyper efficient ovens. I never bother to pre heat mine and it's just so much easier as you can set the temperature and time and just leave it to get on with things. It's more energy efficient than switching on a big oven if you're cooking for one or two people. Also I find that it doesn't stink the flat out like the oven does which I'm sure you'll agree is important for us bijoux habitat dwellers.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    edited October 2024
    darkage said:

    It is a bit rambling and repetitive but it is a pretty clear diagnosis of the problems that she thinks need addressing and credit should be given for this.

    However what is unclear is whether she realises there is no 'incremental' way of dealing with them, there has to be a disruptive big bang - the civil service frozen out, swathes of legislation wiped out in the first 100 days, so many things done at once that the administrative state has no hope of keeping up. Unless you do this, you will be back in to the 'do nothing business as usual' option and in the same predicament as Sunak/Starmer when in power.
    Badenoch chose to remove the guillotine clause in the Retained EU Law Bill. It was the only significant thing she ever did in her five years as minister. To be fair to her the one significant thing was a sensible move.

    She had her chance to do some of what she promotes in her manifesto and decided against it. I wouldn't take anything in it particularly seriously.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    viewcode said:

    Tell me about it. Honesty compels me to note that if we take the polls and only the polls he should be the most probable of the two, especially when we include direction of travel. When Dem moved from attacking him and boasting about themselves, to defending themselves from his attacks, they began to lose. Although to be fair, it still is too close to call.

    I genuinely don't know how to resolve this. I took my gambling money out of the bank yesterday and I don't know what to do. The workaround is to work out which *states* are value for Kamala and bet on those, but again, thin gruel, high risk, low reward, bad, bad.

    If the polls are too close to call I'll look at other factors (recruitment? Where Trump is giving speeches?). I'm a bit worried at him campaigning in Colorado: what does he know that I don't?
    The most recent Morning Consult poll had a 5% Harris lead.

    It sampled 11,353 voters between October 4 - 6.

    It has a MOE of 1%.

    Just sayin'...

  • HYUFD said:

    Jenrick isn't Corbyn, more Andy Burnham, a moderate showing some leg to the party members.

    Kemi is far more Corbyn than Jenrick
    There is no comparator for Jenrick in recent Tory or Labour front bench scuminess. The closest we get to the slime level is the poison dwarf Bercow and his journey from semi fascist loon to self serving slithering snake as Speaker. Jenrick might be travelling in the opposite direction but it is all for self aggrandisement. He belongs in a sewer not Parliament (ignoring for a moment the fact that there are similarities between the two places).
  • HYUFD said:

    Jenrick isn't Corbyn, more Andy Burnham, a moderate showing some leg to the party members.

    Kemi is far more Corbyn than Jenrick
    Any conservative would be quite happy with the 40% of the vote Mr Corbyn got in 2017.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824
    Stereodog said:

    Basically anything that you want to be crispy comes out way better in an air fryer. They're kind of misnamed in a way as they're really just hyper efficient ovens. I never bother to pre heat mine and it's just so much easier as you can set the temperature and time and just leave it to get on with things. It's more energy efficient than switching on a big oven if you're cooking for one or two people. Also I find that it doesn't stink the flat out like the oven does which I'm sure you'll agree is important for us bijoux habitat dwellers.
    Oooh. Interesting. I shall investigate when I return from Asia!

    TA
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    Andy_JS said:

    Pity you voted for him personally a few weeks ago. 😊
    Seems mass 'buyers remorse' has set in.

    It's their own fault. By bigging up the whole stupid FDR/West Wing '100 days' crap they have hoisted themselves on own petard when literally nothing has been delivered expect turning granny's electric fire off this winter.



  • No doubt the freebies that Jenrick likes will be very different to Starmer's.
  • TimS said:

    Are any PB Tories actually supporting Badenoch? I’ve not yet seen anyone declaring she has their vote. There are several Bobby J supporters here. Is this a useful tip for the actual vote?

    In Jenrick and Badenoch I think I’m starting to deduce the distinction between different flavours of populist right wing Conservative, and how their support differs. Badenoch is all vibes. Jenrick seems to have much more appeal to the proper ideological rightwingers, the heirs to Redwood and Lilley.

    However, I’m not sure we have a true bellwether Tory member here. I used to think BigG was that median grassroots member but the Overton window has now left him behind. HYUFD is too engaged, too active, too ideological to count. Other right wingers on here are not necessarily Tory members. What is the average common or garden Conservative Party activist thinking? Who here can speak for them?

    Have been a Kemi fan for a number of years now and repeatedly suggested her to my MP. Who never voted for her..
  • Times exclusive:

    Britain is ready for investment and has a “very real opportunity” to grow its economy, some of the world’s biggest banks and companies have said on the eve of a flagship summit in London.

    In a letter to The Times, five of the world’s biggest banks joined private equity giants, major insurers and tech companies to say it was “time to invest in Britain”.

    https://x.com/breeallegretti/status/1845569838325928261
  • I think recent PMs have risen too high too fast, and longer in a political apprenticeship would be good for them and for us.

    Thatcher became an MP in 1959, and people weren't convinced by her when she first became PM 20 years later.

    Blair was an MP for 14 years before becoming PM, and that was thought to be a rapid rise.

    Seven years in the Commons is not long relatively speaking.
    Though if she did win Badenoch would only become LOTO not PM. She would not get a chance for the high office for another 4 years - so that would be 11 years in Parliament.

    But actually I agree with you on the main point of your posting. I see it as a sign of how poor the political cadre has become in both parties.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,842
    TimS said:

    Are any PB Tories actually supporting Badenoch? I’ve not yet seen anyone declaring she has their vote. There are several Bobby J supporters here. Is this a useful tip for the actual vote?

    In Jenrick and Badenoch I think I’m starting to deduce the distinction between different flavours of populist right wing Conservative, and how their support differs. Badenoch is all vibes. Jenrick seems to have much more appeal to the proper ideological rightwingers, the heirs to Redwood and Lilley.

    However, I’m not sure we have a true bellwether Tory member here. I used to think BigG was that median grassroots member but the Overton window has now left him behind. HYUFD is too engaged, too active, too ideological to count. Other right wingers on here are not necessarily Tory members. What is the average common or garden Conservative Party activist thinking? Who here can speak for them?

    HYUFD is probably still the gold standard imo. I've raved at him (as much as anyone here raves) to be more supportive of right wingers like Truss, but he's been very much middle of the road. I think it does say something him backing Jenrick.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    The flight of the snowbirds seems to come earlier each year.
    *sudden vision of Leon up to his thighs in the River Axe together with the pewits, godwits, sandpiper, teal, swallows, etc. etc. I was watching last month*
  • Starmer will say:





    Just platitudes until you do it though, Keir.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,842
    Leon said:

    Really? It's that good? Why??

    Genuine question. I probably have room for one more device in my small but lovable kitchen

    An air fryer is that much of a boon?

    PB has already persuaded me to get a smartwatch, and that was a great decision, so an air fryer as well?
    It's not a 'fryer' - that's misleading imo - it's a small, powerful, quick, convection oven. Great (I think) for croissants, bacon/sausages, any food you'd bake.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,567
    KnightOut said:



    When it was Boris vs Hunt (and I was still a member) I spoiled my ballot paper by writing in 'former Leeds and Scotland frontman Arthur Graham'.
    This time it is between former Man United midfielder Kemi Moses and disgraced former Spurs midfielder Jermaine Jenrick.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    I suspect he removed the portraits of Thatcher and Gladstone as he couldn't bear them looking down on him and feeling what a minnow he was in comparison.

    He removed Elizabeth I and Raleigh as that was the woke thing for him to do
    He didn't remove the official No 10 portrait of Mrs T - just a second portrait that someone had given the last administration. Not the same thing at all.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565

    I am not a member anymore and would have rejoined if Cleverly had won

    I simply do not like Jenrick and frankly know little about Badenoch but if I had a vote it would be Badenoch as the better of the two

    Maybe neither will lead into GE29, but as the Observer warns labour today not to assume this is another free gift and the outcome of the leadership and success or failure will only become apparent in time

    It is even possible with Labour in free fall and now level with the conservatives both could continue to decline as Reform takes advantage

    This is not what I want, but it is not out of the question and for that reason I hope whoever wins will take the fight to Reform

    I would just add I still receive surveys from Conhome and have not had anything to date
    I don't have a vote but given the two candidates then if I did then I would have little hesitation in going for Kemi Badenoch mainly because she's a fellow comp sci graduate and Jenrick is frankly tory boy public school odious.

    He'll be a disaster and will totally flatline in the polls whereas she might be a disaster.

  • Any conservative would be quite happy with the 40% of the vote Mr Corbyn got in 2017.
    Only 262 seats, mind!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856

    Starmer will say:





    Just platitudes until you do it though, Keir.

    Sounds like he wants a bonfire of red tape? He's speaking the ERG's language.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    The poll you didn't know you needed (USA):

    https://x.com/usa_polling/status/1845513720820125903

    Those who said Hitler had some good ideas:

    All: 11%

    18-29: 21%
    30-49: 16%
    50-64: 7%
    65+: 5%

    Black Americans: 21%
    Hispanic Americans: 19%
    White Americans: 9%

    J.L Partners / Oct 7, 2024 / n=1000
  • Every state leader in Australia withdraws from Charles and Camilla's visits reception

    Republic inevitable
  • The poll you didn't know you needed (USA):

    https://x.com/usa_polling/status/1845513720820125903

    Those who said Hitler had some good ideas:

    All: 11%

    18-29: 21%
    30-49: 16%
    50-64: 7%
    65+: 5%

    Black Americans: 21%
    Hispanic Americans: 19%
    White Americans: 9%

    J.L Partners / Oct 7, 2024 / n=1000

    Elon Musk is most of that 50-64 group
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565

    The poll you didn't know you needed (USA):

    https://x.com/usa_polling/status/1845513720820125903

    Those who said Hitler had some good ideas:

    All: 11%

    18-29: 21%
    30-49: 16%
    50-64: 7%
    65+: 5%

    Black Americans: 21%
    Hispanic Americans: 19%
    White Americans: 9%

    J.L Partners / Oct 7, 2024 / n=1000

    Do they go to ask what the respondent actually thinks are the good ideas?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    Space X should have been much higher up the bbc news running order.

    It is an engineering triumph.
  • Sounds like he wants a bonfire of red tape? He's speaking the ERG's language.
    I'm all for planning being forced through for housing, telecoms, railways etc.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630

    It's not a 'fryer' - that's misleading imo - it's a small, powerful, quick, convection oven. Great (I think) for croissants, bacon/sausages, any food you'd bake.
    Totally agree. It’s a bit like HS2’s miss-selling. Air fryers are not fryers. There are superb tiny ovens. Have used one for the last 6 months during renovations and will shortly have an oven back and not sure will use it. Can confirm sausages great, chickens fine (but check it’s cooked through) and pork joints with crackling superb.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163

    Do they go to ask what the respondent actually thinks are the good ideas?
    Building autobahns would make him popular with some.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824

    Space X should have been much higher up the bbc news running order.

    It is an engineering triumph.

    "Incredible achievement. The company responsible for this is being sued by the US Justice Department for not hiring asylum seekers."

    https://x.com/KeithWoodsYT/status/1845507941232750965

    Essentially the West is now in a final war between those who dream, who do, who drive - like Elon Musk, above all - and the Left, which seeks only division and a dreary levelling down, a morass of argument and inertia, where they can prosper, cause they are more boringly determined to argue over bullshit than anyone else

    I know where I stand. With Elon Musk, who captures rockets and will go to Mars
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 857

    Totally agree. It’s a bit like HS2’s miss-selling. Air fryers are not fryers. There are superb tiny ovens. Have used one for the last 6 months during renovations and will shortly have an oven back and not sure will use it. Can confirm sausages great, chickens fine (but check it’s cooked through) and pork joints with crackling superb.
    Yes absolutely agree about the pork. It does belly slices to a tee.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    TimS said:

    Are any PB Tories actually supporting Badenoch? I’ve not yet seen anyone declaring she has their vote. There are several Bobby J supporters here. Is this a useful tip for the actual vote?

    In Jenrick and Badenoch I think I’m starting to deduce the distinction between different flavours of populist right wing Conservative, and how their support differs. Badenoch is all vibes. Jenrick seems to have much more appeal to the proper ideological rightwingers, the heirs to Redwood and Lilley.

    However, I’m not sure we have a true bellwether Tory member here. I used to think BigG was that median grassroots member but the Overton window has now left him behind. HYUFD is too engaged, too active, too ideological to count. Other right wingers on here are not necessarily Tory members. What is the average common or garden Conservative Party activist thinking? Who here can speak for them?

    Myself, TSE and JohnO will be voting for her.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    MaxPB said:

    Myself, TSE and JohnO will be voting for her.
    It's a landslide!!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774

    The most recent Morning Consult poll had a 5% Harris lead.

    It sampled 11,353 voters between October 4 - 6.

    It has a MOE of 1%.

    Just sayin'...

    Most polling analysts (as opposed to pollsters) agree that MOE doesn’t mean very much if the cohort selection is flawed. And no one will know that until after the election.

    This is genuinely an election that could go either way. But I agree with your gut - my cash in on Harris, too.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    Leon said:

    "Incredible achievement. The company responsible for this is being sued by the US Justice Department for not hiring asylum seekers."

    https://x.com/KeithWoodsYT/status/1845507941232750965

    Essentially the West is now in a final war between those who dream, who do, who drive - like Elon Musk, above all - and the Left, which seeks only division and a dreary levelling down, a morass of argument and inertia, where they can prosper, cause they are more boringly determined to argue over bullshit than anyone else

    I know where I stand. With Elon Musk, who captures rockets and will go to Mars
    How many rocket engineers are seeking asylum?

    Other than von Braun.
  • Totally agree. It’s a bit like HS2’s miss-selling. Air fryers are not fryers. There are superb tiny ovens. Have used one for the last 6 months during renovations and will shortly have an oven back and not sure will use it. Can confirm sausages great, chickens fine (but check it’s cooked through) and pork joints with crackling superb.
    I've used my air fryer for most of my cooking for about 12 years now, since well before they were popular.

    They were invented and originally marketed as a sort-of-replacement for deep fat fryers but without the fat, hence originally being marketed as good for chips and with a basket etc like a deep fat fryer, hence the name.

    But yes they are really just better ovens that can cook most things conventional ovens can cook in a fraction of the time, at a fraction of the cost, and without needing to be preheated.

    They are a must. An absolute must. The only time I cook in my conventional oven now is if I'm cooking something very big, or a lot of food.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824

    How many rocket engineers are seeking asylum?

    Other than von Braun.
    Hopefully this incredible achievement by Musk will be enough to see Donald Trump over the line. I know this is a rare moment of unity on PB, but we can only pray. In the end it is up to America
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824
    This time, we don't just have to defeat the anti-western Left, this time around we have to beat them into total fucking oblivion so they never return. We have to utterly extinguish them, and any means of doing this is valid. They have to die, forever
  • AnthonyTAnthonyT Posts: 141

    Considering he's now reposted that accusation three times, the PB lawyers might be getting a little agitated. Fortunately for Leon he is hidden behind an anonymous moniker. Imagine the shit he'd be in if Mr and Mrs Reeves discovered his true identity.
    Since when is being a lesbian defamatory?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    Another buyer's remorse candidate to join our @Leon



    Jo Maugham
    @JolyonMaugham
    ·
    12h
    Who else has found life mentally harder under Labour? Because before there was hope of the things breaking us getting fixed and now there is not?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    edited October 2024

    How many rocket engineers are seeking asylum?

    Other than von Braun.
    It’s a more interesting case than the simple headlines.

    Under ITAR and other rules, dual use technologies (military applications) have to be carefully guarded. Enormous fines and criminal penalties apply.

    SpaceX took the approach of whole sections of the company being “inside the wall” - even janitors. This isn’t uncommon in smaller aerospace companies.

    This meant that applications from asylum seekers from a number of countries went straight in the bin.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948

    The poll you didn't know you needed (USA):

    https://x.com/usa_polling/status/1845513720820125903

    Those who said Hitler had some good ideas:

    All: 11%

    18-29: 21%
    30-49: 16%
    50-64: 7%
    65+: 5%

    Black Americans: 21%
    Hispanic Americans: 19%
    White Americans: 9%

    J.L Partners / Oct 7, 2024 / n=1000

    Looking at those stats I suspect that’s a shorthand for “I don’t like jews”.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    Leon said:

    Hopefully this incredible achievement by Musk will be enough to see Donald Trump over the line. I know this is a rare moment of unity on PB, but we can only pray. In the end it is up to America
    These PB moments of unity? There are like that comet.

    Last seen when the Neanderthals walked the earth.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630

    Another buyer's remorse candidate to join our @Leon



    Jo Maugham
    @JolyonMaugham
    ·
    12h
    Who else has found life mentally harder under Labour? Because before there was hope of the things breaking us getting fixed and now there is not?

    Maybe time to restart his frivolous and pointless good law project shit then?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    edited October 2024
    Nigelb said:

    Most polling analysts (as opposed to pollsters) agree that MOE doesn’t mean very much if the cohort selection is flawed. And no one will know that until after the election.

    This is genuinely an election that could go either way. But I agree with your gut - my cash in on Harris, too.
    Oh, I agree. When you have a Democrat-heavy Philadelphia sample finding 40%+ support for Trump, you can certainly worry the cohort selection should be filed under "Hmmmmmm......" (Biden won 92% of black voters statewide in 2020...)

  • AnthonyTAnthonyT Posts: 141

    Times exclusive:

    Britain is ready for investment and has a “very real opportunity” to grow its economy, some of the world’s biggest banks and companies have said on the eve of a flagship summit in London.

    In a letter to The Times, five of the world’s biggest banks joined private equity giants, major insurers and tech companies to say it was “time to invest in Britain”.

    https://x.com/breeallegretti/status/1845569838325928261

    The banks will want the fees from the deals and from advising the insurers and tech companies. Private equity will want assets to strip after they've paid the fees to the banks. "Investment" can mean many things .....
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,567
    MaxPB said:

    Myself, TSE and JohnO will be voting for her.
    I'd regard yourself, Casino and Marquee Mark as reasonable bellwethers for the Tory party - each quite harshly to the right wing in some respects, but not often on the side of the biggest excesses that sometimes accompany that wing of the party. You all seem to trend a bit young for Tory members though!

    Sandpit would likely be in the grouping but for distance, and SeanF when he's around is a decent bellwether too.

    BigG a bit too distanced from things at current and HYUFD too sui genesis.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    edited October 2024

    Another buyer's remorse candidate to join our @Leon



    Jo Maugham
    @JolyonMaugham
    ·
    12h
    Who else has found life mentally harder under Labour? Because before there was hope of the things breaking us getting fixed and now there is not?

    Starmer clearly has...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    slade said:

    Following the death of Salmond I have an image of a fat man with ambitions of world domination and a belief that they are an object of desire to women. Other members of the group include Trump, Johnson, Berlusconi, and Mussolini.

    another arsehole pops their head out of the shite
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163

    I've used my air fryer for most of my cooking for about 12 years now, since well before they were popular.

    They were invented and originally marketed as a sort-of-replacement for deep fat fryers but without the fat, hence originally being marketed as good for chips and with a basket etc like a deep fat fryer, hence the name.

    But yes they are really just better ovens that can cook most things conventional ovens can cook in a fraction of the time, at a fraction of the cost, and without needing to be preheated.

    They are a must. An absolute must. The only time I cook in my conventional oven now is if I'm cooking something very big, or a lot of food.
    Yes. I really like cooking in an oven, but to a certain extent an air fryer is to a normal oven, what a normal oven is to an Aga. Almost all the time it is better, faster and cheaper.

    I guess the question is whether you could incorporate elements of air fryer design into a full-size oven, so that you didn't need to have a separate appliance.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565

    Matthew Taylor
    @ConfedMatthew
    ·
    1h
    I have no stake in the Conservative leadership race and the Confed does not always agree with
    @NHSEngland but I think Robert Jenrick’s call for @AmandaPritchard to be sacked is regrettable. It is inappropriate and unfair especially, as a public servant, she cannot respond.

    ==

    Jenrick is poison on stilts. Although it is all faux I suspect. A wannabe poundshop farage.

    But be my guest Tory members - give him a go for two years and then you can have another exciting contest over a long wet summer.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774
    .
    Pro_Rata said:

    I'd regard yourself, Casino and Marquee Mark as reasonable bellwethers for the Tory party - each quite harshly to the right wing in some respects, but not often on the side of the biggest excesses that sometimes accompany that wing of the party. You all seem to trend a bit young for Tory members though!

    Sandpit would likely be in the grouping but for distance, and SeanF when he's around is a decent bellwether too.

    BigG a bit too distanced from things at current and HYUFD too sui genesis.
    Isn't he more sui leviticus ?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233

    Maybe time to restart his frivolous and pointless good law project shit then?
    Perhaps he should beat a fox to death with an illegal weapon?

    It's illegal to possess something to use as a weapon against intruders - which Our Genius stated in the famous twat he sent.
  • Yes. I really like cooking in an oven, but to a certain extent an air fryer is to a normal oven, what a normal oven is to an Aga. Almost all the time it is better, faster and cheaper.

    I guess the question is whether you could incorporate elements of air fryer design into a full-size oven, so that you didn't need to have a separate appliance.
    Well I suppose we've had fan assisted ovens for as long as I recall, and they make a big difference over non-fan ovens.

    But air fryers are just leaps and bounds ahead of even a fan assisted oven. Why, I don't fully understand, but they clearly are.

    Sausages for example are 25-30 minutes in a conventional oven, but 11 minutes is plenty in an air fryer.

    I can do without a microwave, but I would not do without an air fryer nowadays.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774
    edited October 2024
    Armed man arrested near Trump’s California rally was plotting to kill him*, police say

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/13/las-vegas-man-arrested-trump-assassination-attempt-coachella-california
    A man armed with guns and false press and VIP passes was apprehended by authorities at a campaign rally in California on Saturday by Donald Trump.

    The suspect, identified as Vem Miller, was intercepted by police at a checkpoint about a half-mile from an entrance to the rally in Coachella Valley, California, soon before the rally began, police said Sunday.

    “We probably stopped another assassination attempt,” Riverside county sheriff Chad Bianco said, adding that Miller was plotting to kill Trump.

    Police said Miller was carrying a loaded shotgun, handgun and high-capacity magazine and is believed to be a member of a rightwing anti-government organization.

    He holds a UCLA master’s degree, and in 2022 ran for Nevada state assembly. Bianco said Miller considers himself a so-called sovereign citizen, a group of people who do not believe they are subject to any government statutes unless they consent to them...


    *Probably - but given they released him on bail, the evidence can’t have been slam dunk.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824
    Nigelb said:

    Armed man arrested near Trump’s California rally was plotting to kill him*, police say

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/13/las-vegas-man-arrested-trump-assassination-attempt-coachella-california
    A man armed with guns and false press and VIP passes was apprehended by authorities at a campaign rally in California on Saturday by Donald Trump.

    The suspect, identified as Vem Miller, was intercepted by police at a checkpoint about a half-mile from an entrance to the rally in Coachella Valley, California, soon before the rally began, police said Sunday.

    “We probably stopped another assassination attempt,” Riverside county sheriff Chad Bianco said, adding that Miller was plotting to kill Trump.

    Police said Miller was carrying a loaded shotgun, handgun and high-capacity magazine and is believed to be a member of a rightwing anti-government organization.

    He holds a UCLA master’s degree, and in 2022 ran for Nevada state assembly. Bianco said Miller considers himself a so-called sovereign citizen, a group of people who do not believe they are subject to any government statutes unless they consent to them...


    *Probably - but given they released him on bail, the evidence can’t have been slam dunk.

    That’s the third sassytempt in a few weeks. Extraordinary how it has been normalised
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    We have a convert.



    Carol Vorderman
    @carolvorders
    ·
    9h
    I cried... I admit it.... I've never seen anything like it... to catch the #Starship rocket booster and watch the speed and altitude dials.... OMG
    Much as I loathe Musk's revolting politics, by hell that #SpaceX launch was something else


    https://x.com/carolvorders/status/1845447258059219288
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    Leon said:

    That’s the third sassytempt in a few weeks. Extraordinary how it has been normalised
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_assassination_attempts_and_plots


    "Let me tell you one vairy funny story about putting. It was one day I play at Nijni-Novgorod with the pro. against Lenin and Trotsky, and Trotsky had a two-inch putt for the hole. But, just as he addresses the ball, someone in the crowd he tries to assassinate Lenin with a rewolwer—you know that is our great national sport, trying to assassinate Lenin with rewolwers—and the bang puts Trotsky off his stroke and he goes five yards past the hole, and then Lenin, who is rather shaken, you understand, he misses again himself, and we win the hole and match and I clean up three hundred and ninety-six thousand roubles, or fifteen shillings in your money. Some gameovitch!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    Leon said:

    That’s the third sassytempt in a few weeks. Extraordinary how it has been normalised
    And another with a right-wing back story.

    I mean, is Trump not fascist/authoritarian enough for these guys? What more does he have to do for them?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    Leon said:

    That’s the third sassytempt in a few weeks. Extraordinary how it has been normalised
    yeh, but "member of a rightwing anti-government organization"?

    So it 'aint commies trying to get Harris elected.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856

    We have a convert.



    Carol Vorderman
    @carolvorders
    ·
    9h
    I cried... I admit it.... I've never seen anything like it... to catch the #Starship rocket booster and watch the speed and altitude dials.... OMG
    Much as I loathe Musk's revolting politics, by hell that #SpaceX launch was something else


    https://x.com/carolvorders/status/1845447258059219288

    It's amazing how many people in the replies are insisting that it has sod all to do with Musk.
  • Foxy said:

    The members didn't select Sunak. He was the only candidate post Trussocalypse.
    Nor did the members select Theresa May or Mrs Thatcher.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    edited October 2024
    Nigelb said:

    Armed man arrested near Trump’s California rally was plotting to kill him*, police say

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/13/las-vegas-man-arrested-trump-assassination-attempt-coachella-california
    A man armed with guns and false press and VIP passes was apprehended by authorities at a campaign rally in California on Saturday by Donald Trump.

    The suspect, identified as Vem Miller, was intercepted by police at a checkpoint about a half-mile from an entrance to the rally in Coachella Valley, California, soon before the rally began, police said Sunday.

    “We probably stopped another assassination attempt,” Riverside county sheriff Chad Bianco said, adding that Miller was plotting to kill Trump.

    Police said Miller was carrying a loaded shotgun, handgun and high-capacity magazine and is believed to be a member of a rightwing anti-government organization.

    He holds a UCLA master’s degree, and in 2022 ran for Nevada state assembly. Bianco said Miller considers himself a so-called sovereign citizen, a group of people who do not believe they are subject to any government statutes unless they consent to them...


    *Probably - but given they released him on bail, the evidence can’t have been slam dunk.

    Get with the programme - they released him to get the job done next time. Damned libruls....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    Nigelb said:

    Armed man arrested near Trump’s California rally was plotting to kill him*, police say

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/13/las-vegas-man-arrested-trump-assassination-attempt-coachella-california
    A man armed with guns and false press and VIP passes was apprehended by authorities at a campaign rally in California on Saturday by Donald Trump.

    The suspect, identified as Vem Miller, was intercepted by police at a checkpoint about a half-mile from an entrance to the rally in Coachella Valley, California, soon before the rally began, police said Sunday.

    “We probably stopped another assassination attempt,” Riverside county sheriff Chad Bianco said, adding that Miller was plotting to kill Trump.

    Police said Miller was carrying a loaded shotgun, handgun and high-capacity magazine and is believed to be a member of a rightwing anti-government organization.

    He holds a UCLA master’s degree, and in 2022 ran for Nevada state assembly. Bianco said Miller considers himself a so-called sovereign citizen, a group of people who do not believe they are subject to any government statutes unless they consent to them...


    *Probably - but given they released him on bail, the evidence can’t have been slam dunk.

    Carrying an arsenal of firearms and being a member of an extremist loony cult with known violence issues isn't a crime in the US.

    Even if he said some really direct stuff about murdering Trump - he can only be charged with that.

    Threatening a former president or other protectee under 18 U.S.C. § 879 is a felony punishable by:

    - Up to 5 years in federal prison
    - A fine of up to $250,000
    - Up to 3 years of supervised release after prison

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163

    Well I suppose we've had fan assisted ovens for as long as I recall, and they make a big difference over non-fan ovens.

    But air fryers are just leaps and bounds ahead of even a fan assisted oven. Why, I don't fully understand, but they clearly are.

    Sausages for example are 25-30 minutes in a conventional oven, but 11 minutes is plenty in an air fryer.

    I can do without a microwave, but I would not do without an air fryer nowadays.
    I'm wondering whether the fans in ovens are like pre-Dyson hand driers, and perhaps there's a lot more that you could do, but for decades the oven manufacturers simply haven't bothered?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233

    It's amazing how many people in the replies are insisting that it has sod all to do with Musk.
    According to multiple insiders, Musk was the one who actually suggested catching the booster. As opposed to landing it on the launch mount.
  • I'm wondering whether the fans in ovens are like pre-Dyson hand driers, and perhaps there's a lot more that you could do, but for decades the oven manufacturers simply haven't bothered?
    I think that must be at least a big part of it.

    Also I would say their smaller size is a strength as it vastly reduces the energy needed to heat them, so removing the preheat requirements.

    If all you want to cook for instance is some sausages and bacon then heating an entire oven is a waste of energy versus getting the air fryer to do it, even if the oven were as efficient (which currently they're not).

    Our one we use now even looks more like a conventional oven, its got 3 shelves rather than baskets etc, so can get a decent amount of food done in one go in it. Its almost always enough to do a full meal for a family of 4 for us without needing to turn on the oven.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    HYUFD said:

    Jenrick isn't Corbyn, more Andy Burnham, a moderate showing some leg to the party members.

    Kemi is far more Corbyn than Jenrick
    Your reading of Jenrick is faulty. He sold his soul to the Devil. He will forever be remembered as an updated Chitty Chitty. Band Bang child catcher. Painting over cartoons for frightened children. What a ****!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    This is the USA, shock horror people carry weapons. I would imagine at a Trump rally, like a KKK lodge meeting everyone is tooled up.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233

    This is the USA, shock horror people carry weapons. I would imagine at a Trump rally, like a KKK lodge meeting everyone is tooled up.
    Unless they have a threat by this guy against Trump, he’ll walk.

    He’ll be on the Secret Service Fun List for life. Which will be very shitty, if he tries to get any kind of job, for instance.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,313
    edited October 2024

    Another buyer's remorse candidate to join our @Leon



    Jo Maugham
    @JolyonMaugham
    ·
    12h
    Who else has found life mentally harder under Labour? Because before there was hope of the things breaking us getting fixed and now there is not?

    As ever we must turn to @StatsForLefties for guidance. They have an ongoing series consisting of Otto English posting a tweet saying "It's nice isn't it? The quiet" followed by that day's stupidities from our New Labour Alien Overlords. Here is a recent example: https://nitter.poast.org/LeftieStats/status/1844407267925557533#m
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    This is the USA, shock horror people carry weapons. I would imagine at a Trump rally, like a KKK lodge meeting everyone is tooled up.
    The sheriff was being dramatic . Clearly a Trump supporter trying to elicit some sympathy for the stain on humanity . The fact the guys already out on bail shows the sheriff had embarrassed himself by his ridiculous assertions .
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 439
    edited October 2024


    Matthew Taylor
    @ConfedMatthew
    ·
    1h
    I have no stake in the Conservative leadership race and the Confed does not always agree with
    @NHSEngland but I think Robert Jenrick’s call for @AmandaPritchard to be sacked is regrettable. It is inappropriate and unfair especially, as a public servant, she cannot respond.

    ==

    Jenrick is poison on stilts. Although it is all faux I suspect. A wannabe poundshop farage.

    But be my guest Tory members - give him a go for two years and then you can have another exciting contest over a long wet summer.

    One of the many conditions for me voting conservative at a GE ever again is that they find a convincing way to prevent a repeat of the absurd Boris/Truss/Sunak debacle.

    It was farcical.

    That cannot be allowed to happen again. Not while in government.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,313

    It's amazing how many people in the replies are insisting that it has sod all to do with Musk.
    ...whilst on a platform provided by Musk, after watching television via a signal from a Musksat. The guy is a Bond villain in plain sight
  • One of the many conditions for me voting conservative at a GE ever again is that they find a convincing way to prevent a repeat of the absurd Boris/Truss/Sunak debacle.

    It was farcical.

    That cannot be allowed to happen again. Not while in government.
    We're a democracy, changing leader democratically based on votes happening in Parliament and who can uphold a majority in Parliament absolutely can and must be allowed to happen.

    Its a strength of our system not a weakness.

    When parties lose their way, the public can vote them out too. That too is a strength not a weakness.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 439
    edited October 2024

    We're a democracy, changing leader democratically based on votes happening in Parliament and who can uphold a majority in Parliament absolutely can and must be allowed to happen.

    Its a strength of our system not a weakness.

    When parties lose their way, the public can vote them out too. That too is a strength not a weakness.
    Nah. Parties swiping their way through leaders in-between elections ain’t democracy, especially as nowadays parties/prime-ministerial candidates are deliberately running presidential style campaigns.

    It’s taking the piss.

    The mandate problem is real and too serious to ignore. It’s a weakness, not a strength.

    I think whenever a new PM takes over, mid-term, they should be constitutionally forced to go to the country within 3 months.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    The sheriff who arrested the so called Trump suspect was affiliated with the Oath Keepers ! Is well known for being a MAGA Cult member and said it was time to put a convicted felon in the WH . And people moan about the police in the UK !
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    Interesting point on CNN about party identification data:

    https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1845507080892911894

    CNN analyst breaks down a major warning sign for the Kamala Harris campaign - with the nation having a GOP ADVANTAGE for the first time in many years.

    2016: D+3
    2020: D+6
    NOW: R+1
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,313
    The Culture Critic on Hans Holbein's The Ambassadors

    https://nitter.poast.org/Culture_Crit/status/1838658871919001693#m

    A surprising amount of detail and an underlying narrative to the picture: one that is read, not merely seen.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,313
    Sad fact from the film "All Dogs Go To Heaven" https://www.youtube.com/shorts/XuUThBPfGws
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    It’s a more interesting case than the simple headlines.

    Under ITAR and other rules, dual use technologies (military applications) have to be carefully guarded. Enormous fines and criminal penalties apply.

    SpaceX took the approach of whole sections of the company being “inside the wall” - even janitors. This isn’t uncommon in smaller aerospace companies.

    This meant that applications from asylum seekers from a number of countries went straight in the bin.
    Err, yeah. Perhaps one part of the US Federal government should speak to the other part of the US Federal government?

    Anyone who’s not a US citizen - even British rocket scientists - finds it pretty much impossible to get a job at SpaceX or Blue Origin.

    Because the US government wants to keep a really close eye on anyone with knowledge that might be useful to an enemy, and the sort of stuff they are doing with the rockets is not only commercially sensitive but also militarily sensitive. No-one wants the Russians or the Chinese to end up with any information that lets them build something so large yet also so controllable.

    Some great pictures on today’s front pages!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    A man was arrested at a perimeter checkpoint and later released on bail, he appears to be someone known to many of those involved in the Trump campaign. Early days yet, but more likely to be an idiot who forgot he had left his guns in the car and/or didn’t realise police would be searching it.

    Let’s hope that’s the case anyway.

    https://x.com/billmelugin_/status/1845566945107792247
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,633

    Times exclusive:

    Britain is ready for investment and has a “very real opportunity” to grow its economy, some of the world’s biggest banks and companies have said on the eve of a flagship summit in London.

    In a letter to The Times, five of the world’s biggest banks joined private equity giants, major insurers and tech companies to say it was “time to invest in Britain”.

    https://x.com/breeallegretti/status/1845569838325928261

    They’re eyeing up all that money in our pension pots.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,633
    Slavery reparations back on the table ahead of the upcoming Commonwealth summit with David Lammy being earmarked by commonwealth leaders to work on, and secure, the sum. Anything from £206 billion to trillions based on research from academics.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/13/let-david-lammy-secure-reparation-caribbean-hilary-beckles/
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716

    Interesting point on CNN about party identification data:

    https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1845507080892911894

    CNN analyst breaks down a major warning sign for the Kamala Harris campaign - with the nation having a GOP ADVANTAGE for the first time in many years.

    2016: D+3
    2020: D+6
    NOW: R+1

    2016: Both parties have a contested primary
    2020: Only D have a contested primary
    2024: Only R have a contested primary
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774

    And another with a right-wing back story.

    I mean, is Trump not fascist/authoritarian enough for these guys? What more does he have to do for them?
    Gun nuts are going to gun nut.
    And most if them are voting for Trump.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    edited October 2024
    Sandpit said:

    Err, yeah. Perhaps one part of the US Federal government should speak to the other part of the US Federal government?

    Anyone who’s not a US citizen - even British rocket scientists - finds it pretty much impossible to get a job at SpaceX or Blue Origin.

    Because the US government wants to keep a really close eye on anyone with knowledge that might be useful to an enemy, and the sort of stuff they are doing with the rockets is not only commercially sensitive but also militarily sensitive. No-one wants the Russians or the Chinese to end up with any information that lets them build something so large yet also so controllable.

    Some great pictures on today’s front pages!
    So the DOJ's suit says "you can totally hire non-Americans while complying with the export control regulations, just do this simple additional box-ticking". The problem is that from the point of view of the person required to tick the boxes this isn't so simple and anything involving national security requires a lot of regulatory mind-reading and if you get it wrong you might end up in jail.

    Cynically the way to make a really thorough job of ticking the boxes correctly is if you hire somebody who used to work at the regulatory agency.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,414

    2016: Both parties have a contested primary
    2020: Only D have a contested primary
    2024: Only R have a contested primary
    Where was party ID in 2012?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774

    2016: Both parties have a contested primary
    2020: Only D have a contested primary
    2024: Only R have a contested primary
    That's a reasonable interpretation.
    Note both party registrations have actually fallen. Just that the Democrats' has fallen more.
    There's a lot more registered independent this year.

    A lot of warning signs, but as yet no big moves in the polling.

    I suspect this election us already decided; it's just that we won't know which was for a few weeks.

    What worries me is that Trump is paying no price for his increasing embrace of outright racism and authoritarianism. Which his team are making no attempt to excuse any more. Unlike last time he won, they're fully on board with it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397
    Off-topic:

    I've just logged onto an old online todo / task manager app that I used to use ten-fifteen years ago. It's a bit like looking back into my personal history and seeing some of the things I *still* haven't got around to doing... :lol:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774
    Taz said:

    Slavery reparations back on the table ahead of the upcoming Commonwealth summit with David Lammy being earmarked by commonwealth leaders to work on, and secure, the sum. Anything from £206 billion to trillions based on research from academics.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/13/let-david-lammy-secure-reparation-caribbean-hilary-beckles/

    Has no one told him about the hole in the national accounts ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    So the DOJ's suit says "you can totally hire non-Americans while complying with the export control regulations, just do this simple additional box-ticking". The problem is that from the point of view of the person required to tick the boxes this isn't so simple and anything involving national security requires a lot of regulatory mind-reading and if you get it wrong you might end up in jail.

    Cynically the way to make a really thorough job of ticking the boxes correctly is if you hire somebody who used to work at the regulatory agency.
    Yes, just because there’s a loophole somewhere that will, with a lot of additional paperwork, theoretically allow them to possibly hire aliens, the majority of companies in that position are going to say sod all this I’m just hiring Americans.

    Especially so when one error in all that documentation can and will be used to put the manager concerned in prison, as well as potentially exposing the company to an increased risk of IP theft. Perhaps it might be justified for a superstar designer they’ve poached from a rival and who they know is already well vetted, but not for any regular employee.

    The cynic in me might think it could possibly have something to do with Mr Musk coming out as Republican a few weekends before the election.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397
    Sandpit said:

    Yes, just because there’s a loophole somewhere that will, with a lot of additional paperwork, theoretically allow them to possibly hire aliens, the majority of companies in that position are going to say sod all this I’m just hiring Americans.

    Especially so when one error in all that documentation can and will be used to put the manager concerned in prison, as well as potentially exposing the company to an increased risk of IP theft. Perhaps it might be justified for a superstar designer they’ve poached from a rival and who they know is already well vetted, but not for any regular employee.

    The cynic in me might think it could possibly have something to do with Mr Musk coming out as Republican a few weekends before the election.
    LOL. Musk has been backing Trump and the GP agenda for many months.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    LOL. Musk has been backing Trump and the GP agenda for many months.
    Musk declared for Trump on the day the candidate was shot. 13th July. Which is actually three months ago now, how time flies!
  • Off-topic:

    I've just logged onto an old online todo / task manager app that I used to use ten-fifteen years ago. It's a bit like looking back into my personal history and seeing some of the things I *still* haven't got around to doing... :lol:

    Trello?

    It is the start of a new working week, as across Britain we reach for our todo lists, cross out Friday and write Monday at the top.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397
    Sandpit said:

    Musk declared for Trump on the day the candidate was shot. 13th July. Which is actually three months ago now, how time flies!
    It was obvious he was a GOPper *way* before that. I wonder what deals have been done...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355
    Taz said:

    Slavery reparations back on the table ahead of the upcoming Commonwealth summit with David Lammy being earmarked by commonwealth leaders to work on, and secure, the sum. Anything from £206 billion to trillions based on research from academics.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/13/let-david-lammy-secure-reparation-caribbean-hilary-beckles/

    He's been earmarked because they know he's a mug.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355

    Off-topic:

    I've just logged onto an old online todo / task manager app that I used to use ten-fifteen years ago. It's a bit like looking back into my personal history and seeing some of the things I *still* haven't got around to doing... :lol:

    I still use a pen and paper in an A5 notebook.
This discussion has been closed.