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I agree with Sir John Curtice – politicalbetting.com

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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,824

    Off-topic:

    I've just logged onto an old online todo / task manager app that I used to use ten-fifteen years ago. It's a bit like looking back into my personal history and seeing some of the things I *still* haven't got around to doing... :lol:

    Trello?

    It is the start of a new working week, as across Britain we reach for our todo lists, cross out Friday and write Monday at the top.
    No, Remember The Milk. I used it for a while before I gave up work, and there's quite a few minor work-related tasks that I never completed but the clients paid me for! And I think I've 'mowed the garden' since I added it into the list, although we've moved twice since then...

    (After that, I moved to simply using Excel sheets. But I'm starting to hanker after something better that integrates well with my phone and PC. Microsoft ToDo is pants.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,798

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Space X should have been much higher up the bbc news running order.

    It is an engineering triumph.

    "Incredible achievement. The company responsible for this is being sued by the US Justice Department for not hiring asylum seekers."

    https://x.com/KeithWoodsYT/status/1845507941232750965

    Essentially the West is now in a final war between those who dream, who do, who drive - like Elon Musk, above all - and the Left, which seeks only division and a dreary levelling down, a morass of argument and inertia, where they can prosper, cause they are more boringly determined to argue over bullshit than anyone else

    I know where I stand. With Elon Musk, who captures rockets and will go to Mars
    How many rocket engineers are seeking asylum?

    Other than von Braun.
    It’s a more interesting case than the simple headlines.

    Under ITAR and other rules, dual use technologies (military applications) have to be carefully guarded. Enormous fines and criminal penalties apply.

    SpaceX took the approach of whole sections of the company being “inside the wall” - even janitors. This isn’t uncommon in smaller aerospace companies.

    This meant that applications from asylum seekers from a number of countries went straight in the bin.
    Err, yeah. Perhaps one part of the US Federal government should speak to the other part of the US Federal government?

    Anyone who’s not a US citizen - even British rocket scientists - finds it pretty much impossible to get a job at SpaceX or Blue Origin.

    Because the US government wants to keep a really close eye on anyone with knowledge that might be useful to an enemy, and the sort of stuff they are doing with the rockets is not only commercially sensitive but also militarily sensitive. No-one wants the Russians or the Chinese to end up with any information that lets them build something so large yet also so controllable.

    Some great pictures on today’s front pages!
    So the DOJ's suit says "you can totally hire non-Americans while complying with the export control regulations, just do this simple additional box-ticking". The problem is that from the point of view of the person required to tick the boxes this isn't so simple and anything involving national security requires a lot of regulatory mind-reading and if you get it wrong you might end up in jail.

    Cynically the way to make a really thorough job of ticking the boxes correctly is if you hire somebody who used to work at the regulatory agency.
    Yes, just because there’s a loophole somewhere that will, with a lot of additional paperwork, theoretically allow them to possibly hire aliens, the majority of companies in that position are going to say sod all this I’m just hiring Americans.

    Especially so when one error in all that documentation can and will be used to put the manager concerned in prison, as well as potentially exposing the company to an increased risk of IP theft. Perhaps it might be justified for a superstar designer they’ve poached from a rival and who they know is already well vetted, but not for any regular employee.

    The cynic in me might think it could possibly have something to do with Mr Musk coming out as Republican a few weekends before the election.
    LOL. Musk has been backing Trump and the GP agenda for many months.
    Musk declared for Trump on the day the candidate was shot. 13th July. Which is actually three months ago now, how time flies!
    It was obvious he was a GOPper *way* before that. I wonder what deals have been done...
    The Twitter meme is that he’s going to be put in charge of the Department of Government Efficiency. Which of course shortens to DOGE.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,824
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Space X should have been much higher up the bbc news running order.

    It is an engineering triumph.

    "Incredible achievement. The company responsible for this is being sued by the US Justice Department for not hiring asylum seekers."

    https://x.com/KeithWoodsYT/status/1845507941232750965

    Essentially the West is now in a final war between those who dream, who do, who drive - like Elon Musk, above all - and the Left, which seeks only division and a dreary levelling down, a morass of argument and inertia, where they can prosper, cause they are more boringly determined to argue over bullshit than anyone else

    I know where I stand. With Elon Musk, who captures rockets and will go to Mars
    How many rocket engineers are seeking asylum?

    Other than von Braun.
    It’s a more interesting case than the simple headlines.

    Under ITAR and other rules, dual use technologies (military applications) have to be carefully guarded. Enormous fines and criminal penalties apply.

    SpaceX took the approach of whole sections of the company being “inside the wall” - even janitors. This isn’t uncommon in smaller aerospace companies.

    This meant that applications from asylum seekers from a number of countries went straight in the bin.
    Err, yeah. Perhaps one part of the US Federal government should speak to the other part of the US Federal government?

    Anyone who’s not a US citizen - even British rocket scientists - finds it pretty much impossible to get a job at SpaceX or Blue Origin.

    Because the US government wants to keep a really close eye on anyone with knowledge that might be useful to an enemy, and the sort of stuff they are doing with the rockets is not only commercially sensitive but also militarily sensitive. No-one wants the Russians or the Chinese to end up with any information that lets them build something so large yet also so controllable.

    Some great pictures on today’s front pages!
    So the DOJ's suit says "you can totally hire non-Americans while complying with the export control regulations, just do this simple additional box-ticking". The problem is that from the point of view of the person required to tick the boxes this isn't so simple and anything involving national security requires a lot of regulatory mind-reading and if you get it wrong you might end up in jail.

    Cynically the way to make a really thorough job of ticking the boxes correctly is if you hire somebody who used to work at the regulatory agency.
    Yes, just because there’s a loophole somewhere that will, with a lot of additional paperwork, theoretically allow them to possibly hire aliens, the majority of companies in that position are going to say sod all this I’m just hiring Americans.

    Especially so when one error in all that documentation can and will be used to put the manager concerned in prison, as well as potentially exposing the company to an increased risk of IP theft. Perhaps it might be justified for a superstar designer they’ve poached from a rival and who they know is already well vetted, but not for any regular employee.

    The cynic in me might think it could possibly have something to do with Mr Musk coming out as Republican a few weekends before the election.
    LOL. Musk has been backing Trump and the GP agenda for many months.
    Musk declared for Trump on the day the candidate was shot. 13th July. Which is actually three months ago now, how time flies!
    It was obvious he was a GOPper *way* before that. I wonder what deals have been done...
    The Twitter meme is that he’s going to be put in charge of the Department of Government Efficiency. Which of course shortens to DOGE.
    ISTR he's been going on about that himself. And it would be a disaster.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,398
    HYUFD said:


    Sir Keir Starmer has taken down portraits of Elizabeth I and Sir Walter Raleigh that were on display in Downing Street
    https://x.com/DominicPenna/status/1845486129425817766

    He hates this country
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,824

    HYUFD said:


    Sir Keir Starmer has taken down portraits of Elizabeth I and Sir Walter Raleigh that were on display in Downing Street
    https://x.com/DominicPenna/status/1845486129425817766

    He hates this country
    I wouldn't go that far, but I do wonder why he chose to remove those ones in particular. Lizzie 1 was a particularly important figure in British history. If he replaces them, I wonder who'll they be replaced by?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,798
    At the risk of going all @Leon, is that an October Suprise currently trending, or is someone about to get sued for millions for seriously defaming an American politician?

    I’m not going to post a link unless it’s from a very reputable news organisation. Which there isn’t yet.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,824
    Scammers putting false QR codes on car park signs...

    https://x.com/lozzylozboz/status/1845584107830690038
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,878

    Taz said:

    Slavery reparations back on the table ahead of the upcoming Commonwealth summit with David Lammy being earmarked by commonwealth leaders to work on, and secure, the sum. Anything from £206 billion to trillions based on research from academics.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/13/let-david-lammy-secure-reparation-caribbean-hilary-beckles/

    He's been earmarked because they know he's a mug.
    True but it surprises me as he’s not a stupid person. He’s certainly academically smart.
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,878

    HYUFD said:


    Sir Keir Starmer has taken down portraits of Elizabeth I and Sir Walter Raleigh that were on display in Downing Street
    https://x.com/DominicPenna/status/1845486129425817766

    He hates this country
    From the latest polling the feeling is reciprocated.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,398

    Badenoch pamphlet ‘stigmatises’ autistic people, says top Tory

    The document said people with autism get “economic advantages and protections” but a spokesman denied any prejudice


    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/badenoch-pamphlet-stigmitises-autistic-tory-3322013

    Have you decided which of these two losers you're going to vote for TSE?
    Badenoch possibly, absolutely no chance I am voting for Jenrick.

    Actually I might vote Jenrick, in the four Tory leadership contests I have voted in I have only backed the winner once (Dave pbuh).

    Normally my vote is like getting an endorsement from Leon, it dooms the candidate.
    You should abstain. Both are unworthy of the Leadership.
    I may well abstain.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,398

    HYUFD said:


    Sir Keir Starmer has taken down portraits of Elizabeth I and Sir Walter Raleigh that were on display in Downing Street
    https://x.com/DominicPenna/status/1845486129425817766

    He hates this country
    I wouldn't go that far, but I do wonder why he chose to remove those ones in particular. Lizzie 1 was a particularly important figure in British history. If he replaces them, I wonder who'll they be replaced by?
    There's no figure of British history he'd be proud to have up, except Clement Attlee or Nye Bevan.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,398
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Slavery reparations back on the table ahead of the upcoming Commonwealth summit with David Lammy being earmarked by commonwealth leaders to work on, and secure, the sum. Anything from £206 billion to trillions based on research from academics.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/13/let-david-lammy-secure-reparation-caribbean-hilary-beckles/

    He's been earmarked because they know he's a mug.
    True but it surprises me as he’s not a stupid person. He’s certainly academically smart.
    Academically smart people can have terrible instincts and judgement.
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,878
    edited October 14
    Sandpit said:

    At the risk of going all @Leon, is that an October Suprise currently trending, or is someone about to get sued for millions for seriously defaming an American politician?

    I’m not going to post a link unless it’s from a very reputable news organisation. Which there isn’t yet.

    Just looked it up. I suspect some people will end up financially worse off as consequence. Sounds bollocks and convenient timing.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,824

    HYUFD said:


    Sir Keir Starmer has taken down portraits of Elizabeth I and Sir Walter Raleigh that were on display in Downing Street
    https://x.com/DominicPenna/status/1845486129425817766

    He hates this country
    I wouldn't go that far, but I do wonder why he chose to remove those ones in particular. Lizzie 1 was a particularly important figure in British history. If he replaces them, I wonder who'll they be replaced by?
    There's no figure of British history he'd be proud to have up, except Clement Attlee or Nye Bevan.
    I was thinking of the traitorous little shit Stafford Cripps.
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,878

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Slavery reparations back on the table ahead of the upcoming Commonwealth summit with David Lammy being earmarked by commonwealth leaders to work on, and secure, the sum. Anything from £206 billion to trillions based on research from academics.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/13/let-david-lammy-secure-reparation-caribbean-hilary-beckles/

    He's been earmarked because they know he's a mug.
    True but it surprises me as he’s not a stupid person. He’s certainly academically smart.
    Academically smart people can have terrible instincts and judgement.
    Agreed, which is why I say it surprises me.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,701

    Interesting point on CNN about party identification data:

    https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1845507080892911894

    CNN analyst breaks down a major warning sign for the Kamala Harris campaign - with the nation having a GOP ADVANTAGE for the first time in many years.

    2016: D+3
    2020: D+6
    NOW: R+1

    You will be an absolute hero come early November. Many of us were convinced Kamala had this, but we were looking at the wrong YouTube channels and the wrong evidence. You are going to make us all very wealthy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,798
    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    At the risk of going all @Leon, is that an October Suprise currently trending, or is someone about to get sued for millions for seriously defaming an American politician?

    I’m not going to post a link unless it’s from a very reputable news organisation. Which there isn’t yet.

    Just looked it up. I suspect some people will end up financially worse off as consequence. Sounds bollocks and convenient timing.
    Indeed, but there’s going to be an awful lot of sleepless nights in the US - including Elon Musk, campaign offices of both parties, and a lot of lawyers.

    Either this will be the biggest story in the world about eight hours from now, or will get totally buried in lawsuits before sunrise.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,824
    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    At the risk of going all @Leon, is that an October Suprise currently trending, or is someone about to get sued for millions for seriously defaming an American politician?

    I’m not going to post a link unless it’s from a very reputable news organisation. Which there isn’t yet.

    Just looked it up. I suspect some people will end up financially worse off as consequence. Sounds bollocks and convenient timing.
    Indeed, but there’s going to be an awful lot of sleepless nights in the US - including Elon Musk, campaign offices of both parties, and a lot of lawyers.

    Either this will be the biggest story in the world about eight hours from now, or will get totally buried in lawsuits before sunrise.
    I don't think I can see anything relevant on my Twix timeline or Trending.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,578
    Sandpit said:


    The cynic in me might think it could possibly have something to do with Mr Musk coming out as Republican a few weekends before the election.

    The DOJ lawsuit was filed last summer. I'm not going to try to read Musk's mind but support for Trump is kind of an asymmetrical bet because Trump will definitely abuse his power to reward supporters and punish opponents, whereas the Dems will only do this in very subtle ways if at all.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,701
    ...
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Armed man arrested near Trump’s California rally was plotting to kill him*, police say

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/13/las-vegas-man-arrested-trump-assassination-attempt-coachella-california
    A man armed with guns and false press and VIP passes was apprehended by authorities at a campaign rally in California on Saturday by Donald Trump.

    The suspect, identified as Vem Miller, was intercepted by police at a checkpoint about a half-mile from an entrance to the rally in Coachella Valley, California, soon before the rally began, police said Sunday.

    “We probably stopped another assassination attempt,” Riverside county sheriff Chad Bianco said, adding that Miller was plotting to kill Trump.

    Police said Miller was carrying a loaded shotgun, handgun and high-capacity magazine and is believed to be a member of a rightwing anti-government organization.

    He holds a UCLA master’s degree, and in 2022 ran for Nevada state assembly. Bianco said Miller considers himself a so-called sovereign citizen, a group of people who do not believe they are subject to any government statutes unless they consent to them...


    *Probably - but given they released him on bail, the evidence can’t have been slam dunk.

    That’s the third sassytempt in a few weeks. Extraordinary how it has been normalised
    Only it wasn't an assassination attempt. It was a right-wing nutjobs carrying multiple weapons. Nothing extraordinary about that.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,444

    HYUFD said:


    Sir Keir Starmer has taken down portraits of Elizabeth I and Sir Walter Raleigh that were on display in Downing Street
    https://x.com/DominicPenna/status/1845486129425817766

    He hates this country
    Except, as you have hopefully seen later in the thread, this wasn’t done at Starmer’s direction, but was a pre-planned re-arrangement of government art.
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,878
    edited October 14
    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    At the risk of going all @Leon, is that an October Suprise currently trending, or is someone about to get sued for millions for seriously defaming an American politician?

    I’m not going to post a link unless it’s from a very reputable news organisation. Which there isn’t yet.

    Just looked it up. I suspect some people will end up financially worse off as consequence. Sounds bollocks and convenient timing.
    Indeed, but there’s going to be an awful lot of sleepless nights in the US - including Elon Musk, campaign offices of both parties, and a lot of lawyers.

    Either this will be the biggest story in the world about eight hours from now, or will get totally buried in lawsuits before sunrise.
    Yup and I suspect the latter. I cannot imagine for one minute due diligence would not have been done at a forensic level. Just throwing Mud IMHO.

    I'm surprised there has not been more on the story of P Diddy as well given the lurid claims around what he has supposed to have done.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c869qd5j09xo
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,398
    edited October 14

    HYUFD said:


    Sir Keir Starmer has taken down portraits of Elizabeth I and Sir Walter Raleigh that were on display in Downing Street
    https://x.com/DominicPenna/status/1845486129425817766

    He hates this country
    Except, as you have hopefully seen later in the thread, this wasn’t done at Starmer’s direction, but was a pre-planned re-arrangement of government art.
    Yeah, that doesn't set anything off at all on the bollocksometer.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,491
    Taz said:
    We have been considering putting a lump sum roughly equivalent to the rest of the year's contributions into my pension before the budget, just in case the tax relief gets cut. At one point this looked an obvious thing to do but I am really not sure now. Obviously I should be asking the doctors union for advice.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,691
    DavidL said:

    Taz said:
    We have been considering putting a lump sum roughly equivalent to the rest of the year's contributions into my pension before the budget, just in case the tax relief gets cut. At one point this looked an obvious thing to do but I am really not sure now. Obviously I should be asking the doctors union for advice.
    Why? It would be impossible ( and unfair) to make changes mid tax year
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,976
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    COOKING TIP


    When microwaving baked potatoes OVERcook them so they gain this weird delicious crispiness, even crunchiness, then soften this dried snappabiltiy with fats - oil, butter, the flavoured oils from a fried steak. Then they become utterly delicious and better than baked spuds from the oven

    The average single baked spud needs maybe 17 minutes at full power

    Nothing tastier than a crunchy potato.
    Honestly, they're great. But you have to be watchful, it takes about a minute for them to go from wonderfully crunchy to inedible cinders, but if you hit the sweet spot, MMMMMM

    I believe, and I am wary of exaggeration, that my microwaved baked potato discovery is on a par with Elon Musk's Giant Chopsticks Capturing The World's Hugest Missile achievement earlier today, tho I accept that the several PB-ers with Musk Derangement Syndrome will clearly see my triumph as the greater, and I am thankful for their approbation
    You need to get an air fryer.
    I almost certainly do, but I don't have room in a small 1 bed flat

    A flat which BTW I love, for my sins, BECAUSE it is so small. Lock up and leave!

    I fly to Asia tomorrow

    I have a small flat too but the air fryer is a must. I barely turn my oven on anymore. It really doesn't take all that much worktop space and more than justifies it.
    Really? It's that good? Why??

    Genuine question. I probably have room for one more device in my small but lovable kitchen

    An air fryer is that much of a boon?

    PB has already persuaded me to get a smartwatch, and that was a great decision, so an air fryer as well?
    I just bought a basket press, so I can crush my own grapes. Definitely not enough space on the kitchen work surface for that.

    I’ve resisted an air fryer because they are unattractively rounded in shape and look naff, like a 90s CD player, but they do seem to be very useful machines.
    Yes exactly, they are so ugly. They look like rice cookers, which are pointless

    But I am willing to be persuaded by the Gathered Genius of PB. Which has somewhat changed my life - for the better - with the Garmin Venu 3
    The round ones do look a bit stupid. The bigger ones look like surface top ovens and have shelves you can slide trays into. They're still not God's gift to kitchen design, but good nonetheless.
  • I briefly noted a comment later yesterday that my SpaceX comment was “overblown” followed by a list of Big Days in space flight. Yesterday was one of those days - a giant leap forward and the first one in ages.

    Again, what did we see. The heaviest rocket ever launched from a payload-to-orbit perspective. Launched off a milk-stool structure and then less than 6 minutes later returning to be gently caught by its own launch tower.

    On this test flight they let the engines go uncooled to test what happens. A few outer engines warped. In service that doesn’t happen - and the booster can be immediately refuelled, have another Starship stacked on top and be relaunched. In less than an hour.

    If you don’t think that capability is a giant step, you don’t understand steps…
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,495
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Badenoch pamphlet ‘stigmatises’ autistic people, says top Tory

    The document said people with autism get “economic advantages and protections” but a spokesman denied any prejudice


    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/badenoch-pamphlet-stigmitises-autistic-tory-3322013

    Confirms my decision to vote for Jenrick, attacking help for those with autism, opposing maternity pay and saying 10% of civil servants should be jailed with no evidence makes Badenoch not up to leadership in my view
    Yet you welcomed in the lying clown with open arms
    Boris was likeable and generally didn't attack large categories of the population
    Muslims, girly swots and anyone involved in business wave hello :lol:
  • Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Armed man arrested near Trump’s California rally was plotting to kill him*, police say

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/13/las-vegas-man-arrested-trump-assassination-attempt-coachella-california
    A man armed with guns and false press and VIP passes was apprehended by authorities at a campaign rally in California on Saturday by Donald Trump.

    The suspect, identified as Vem Miller, was intercepted by police at a checkpoint about a half-mile from an entrance to the rally in Coachella Valley, California, soon before the rally began, police said Sunday.

    “We probably stopped another assassination attempt,” Riverside county sheriff Chad Bianco said, adding that Miller was plotting to kill Trump.

    Police said Miller was carrying a loaded shotgun, handgun and high-capacity magazine and is believed to be a member of a rightwing anti-government organization.

    He holds a UCLA master’s degree, and in 2022 ran for Nevada state assembly. Bianco said Miller considers himself a so-called sovereign citizen, a group of people who do not believe they are subject to any government statutes unless they consent to them...


    *Probably - but given they released him on bail, the evidence can’t have been slam dunk.

    That’s the third sassytempt in a few weeks. Extraordinary how it has been normalised
    And another with a right-wing back story.

    I mean, is Trump not fascist/authoritarian enough for these guys? What more does he have to do for them?
    England could do with a decent right wing-back.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,491
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:
    We have been considering putting a lump sum roughly equivalent to the rest of the year's contributions into my pension before the budget, just in case the tax relief gets cut. At one point this looked an obvious thing to do but I am really not sure now. Obviously I should be asking the doctors union for advice.
    Why? It would be impossible ( and unfair) to make changes mid tax year
    I think that if she cut the tax relief from 40% to 20% she would have to do it with immediate effect from the time of the announcement. To do otherwise would have billions poured into pensions before April and very likely cause a recession because of the collapse in demand. She might still do this but the risks have reduced somewhat because the public sector unions are on the case pointing out what effect it would have on their better paid members.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,058
    edited October 14
    DavidL said:

    Taz said:
    We have been considering putting a lump sum roughly equivalent to the rest of the year's contributions into my pension before the budget, just in case the tax relief gets cut. At one point this looked an obvious thing to do but I am really not sure now. Obviously I should be asking the doctors union for advice.
    My understanding is that it's quite hard to change this mid financial year, particularly taxation on lump sums.

    A lot of my colleagues have put in their pension claims in the last few months, in order to get it in the bank before April.

    Fundamentally Reeves problem in trying to raise billions by tinkering with allowances etc distorts behaviour so people can get around the new rules, and doesn't raise much as a result.

    Far simpler and better to put a couple of % on the tax rates across the board, but Reeves hobbled herself on this.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,578

    Interesting point on CNN about party identification data:

    https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1845507080892911894

    CNN analyst breaks down a major warning sign for the Kamala Harris campaign - with the nation having a GOP ADVANTAGE for the first time in many years.

    2016: D+3
    2020: D+6
    NOW: R+1

    2016: Both parties have a contested primary
    2020: Only D have a contested primary
    2024: Only R have a contested primary
    Come to think of it it's not this because this is about self-identified ID not party registration.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,976
    Regarding Mickey Mouse murals in child's reception centres, these aren't children - children do not make the channel crossing alone. They are male teenagers and young adults. The worst example of this is someone placed in foster care who tuened out to be a serial killer. Putting Mickey Mouse murals up in the first place was insincere wankery by those concerned. Jenrick should not have painted them over - politically it's a stupid thing to do - but it wasn't a cruel thing to do.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,824
    edited October 14

    I briefly noted a comment later yesterday that my SpaceX comment was “overblown” followed by a list of Big Days in space flight. Yesterday was one of those days - a giant leap forward and the first one in ages.

    Again, what did we see. The heaviest rocket ever launched from a payload-to-orbit perspective. Launched off a milk-stool structure and then less than 6 minutes later returning to be gently caught by its own launch tower.

    On this test flight they let the engines go uncooled to test what happens. A few outer engines warped. In service that doesn’t happen - and the booster can be immediately refuelled, have another Starship stacked on top and be relaunched. In less than an hour.

    If you don’t think that capability is a giant step, you don’t understand steps…

    No-one was saying it wasn't a giant step. Just that other launches were also giant steps.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,058
  • NEW THREAD

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,701

    Regarding Mickey Mouse murals in child's reception centres, these aren't children - children do not make the channel crossing alone. They are male teenagers and young adults. The worst example of this is someone placed in foster care who tuened out to be a serial killer. Putting Mickey Mouse murals up in the first place was insincere wankery by those concerned. Jenrick should not have painted them over - politically it's a stupid thing to do - but it wasn't a cruel thing to do.

    It was performative cruelty for the sake of performative cruelty. It has become his signature.

    The murals weren't doing any harm and some of the children were younger than teenagers. Irrespective of age seeing a cheerful cartoon character as a youngster is probably more reassuring than seeing the outline of one that has been painted out.


  • TazTaz Posts: 13,878
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:
    We have been considering putting a lump sum roughly equivalent to the rest of the year's contributions into my pension before the budget, just in case the tax relief gets cut. At one point this looked an obvious thing to do but I am really not sure now. Obviously I should be asking the doctors union for advice.
    My understanding is that it's quite hard to change this mid financial year, particularly taxation on lump sums.

    A lot of my colleagues have put in their pension claims in the last few months, in order to get it in the bank before April.

    Fundamentally Reeves problem in trying to raise billions by tinkering with allowances etc distorts behaviour so people can get around the new rules, and doesn't raise much as a result.

    Far simpler and better to put a couple of % on the tax rates across the board, but Reeves hobbled herself on this.
    Yeah, nobble the poor and the working class and allow the well off to keep taking their large lump sums from their pensions. Truly redistributive.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,058
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:
    We have been considering putting a lump sum roughly equivalent to the rest of the year's contributions into my pension before the budget, just in case the tax relief gets cut. At one point this looked an obvious thing to do but I am really not sure now. Obviously I should be asking the doctors union for advice.
    My understanding is that it's quite hard to change this mid financial year, particularly taxation on lump sums.

    A lot of my colleagues have put in their pension claims in the last few months, in order to get it in the bank before April.

    Fundamentally Reeves problem in trying to raise billions by tinkering with allowances etc distorts behaviour so people can get around the new rules, and doesn't raise much as a result.

    Far simpler and better to put a couple of % on the tax rates across the board, but Reeves hobbled herself on this.
    Yeah, nobble the poor and the working class and allow the well off to keep taking their large lump sums from their pensions. Truly redistributive.
    Or why not index the personal allowance to the old age pension and start the 45% tax band where the 40% band starts now?

    There are many options to change rates and be redistribution if a CoE has a free hand.
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