HYUFD said:

Andy_JS said:

Cleverly 39
Jenrick 31
Badenoch 30
Tugendhat 20

Disappointing result for Jenrick.

I should imagine virtually all the Tugendhat votes go to Cleverly with a few for Jenrick so they probably still end up the last two

Dopermean said:

On topic, are the predictions all within 240-299 for Harris/Trump?
2020 I managed to cover the range 240-330 at a profit.
If it's looking 90% or more within the 240-299 range then there's value.

JosiasJessop said:

MattW said:

About to head off out to do things.

My photo for the day is a 3 minute video from the "Together Creating Community", about anti-wheelchair barriers on the Flintshire Coastal Path.

It includes a 3 minute video with a wheelchair using lady explaining how she used to cycle down the path all the way to Chester with her husband, but since she became disabled a decade ago cannot go there without paying a helper £20-25 an hour or taking a friend because of the barriers.

(For anyone not into these things, those A-barriers are of 1980s-1990s design.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqyr4NXezms

Surprisingly, those barriers are actually quite hard to negotiate with a backpacking pack on as well. Oh, and I think I've walked that path a couple of times.

edmundintokyo said:

Have we done the covid tests for Putin story?　The Dems must be sitting on so much dirt about the previous Trump administration, for the next month they can just keep dripping out whatever the media will find appetizing.



https://bsky.app/profile/washingtonpost.com/post/3l5ywmobmai2n

MarqueeMark said:

Anabobazina said:

Surely the Tug’s backers will chiefly go to Cleverly?

Cleverly is through. I suspect most go to Kemi to keep Jenrick out.

MarqueeMark said:

Anabobazina said:

Surely the Tug’s backers will chiefly go to Cleverly?

Cleverly is through. I suspect most go to Kemi to keep Jenrick out.

viewcode said:

MarqueeMark said:

Anabobazina said:

Surely the Tug’s backers will chiefly go to Cleverly?

Cleverly is through. I suspect most go to Kemi to keep Jenrick out.

If Kemi goes thru to the last two, Kemi wins.

Andy_JS said:

Betfair Xchange

Cleverly 2.02
Badenoch 3.95
Jenrick 4.2

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.205526560

noneoftheabove said:

Cookie said:

FPT:

noneoftheabove said:

TOPPING said:

noneoftheabove said:

TOPPING said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Sandpit said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Sandpit said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

This is the catastrophe looming for the UK under Labour

“One Fifth of All Millionaires To Leave Britain by 2028”

https://x.com/guidofawkes/status/1843554081672954112?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/07/britain-suffer-biggest-millionaires-exodus-globally-non-dom/

Labour are chasing away the rich 1%, who pay 30% of our entire tax take. The world has changed and people can work remotely

Labour are going to run out of money, they will have to tax more and more, driving away MORE rich people - meanwhile poor people keep arriving. We’re in a doom loop

While there is definitely an exodus of millionaires - I know one or two who have already gone - the big risk is the brain drain of the young and ambitious.

What's left in broken britain for people other than to be pay pigs for unproductive spongers and boat people? If you're in your 20s, bright, ambitious, you can stay in broken britain and be taxed to the eyeballs while being unable to ever save money to get on the property ladder (and be cheated at every turn if you finally do), or you can bugger off to Dubai, pay 0% tax and like as not avoid the graduate tax aka student loan while you're at it.

It's not just the millionaires we'll lose over the next five years. It's the young and ambitious who can make more and pay less tax elsewhere.

It probably won't be long before Rachel Thieves puts in place exchange controls. The basic problem is that Labour does not understand wealth creation. It is a party for the public sector, hence the reason why NHS consultants and senior managers will retire with tax-free pension pots of £2.5M, while wealth generators will have any sale of a business that they have built up taxed, taxed and more taxed!

If she does anything like the IFS recommendation of setting CGT at income tax rates, the amount of capital flight will be catastrophic, as will the collapse in FDI. There would be no incentive whatsoever to invest in a UK business, and no incentive for anyone of serious means to stay in the country, when there are so many other countries doing their best to encourage capital.

Unlike @kjh who wants us to know (or is it believe) that he is in the "£3M to £10M range" (lol), I do know people who are leaving or giving it serious consideration. This is the difference between the current public sector obsessed Labour Party and Blair's New Labour, the latter of which understood and encouraged wealth creation. Lord Mandelson needs to advise them to get a grip quick before the economy becomes more and more fucked.

From my vantage point, in a small country well-known for having no personal income tax nor capital gains tax, with VAT at 5% and Corporation Tax 7%, rents are up around 30% year on year as the place is importing people faster than the many builders can keep up with demand.

Hi Sandpit. Cut and paste from my other post:

I did not say people won't leave for better jobs or a better life. However people who are rich who haven't left already (as per the topic) aren't now going to leave because of tax now.

They really really will

Why? What will they gain? I note @MarqueeMark liked, but he hasn't left.

This might be a misunderstanding. I am not saying the aspiring won't leave, and that is an issue. I'm not saying people won't leave for quality of life issues.

I'm particularly saying those who are well off who haven't left won't now because of tax. If they were they would have already done it. They might for a job or quality of life, but that would happen anyway.

As I said, taxes, schmaxes. But many rich people might get the feeling that this govt is coming for them and this is just the start.

Top tip - they could just cancel their Telegraph and Speccie subscriptions and this feeling would miraculously disappear. Much cheaper than leaving the country too.

The two most notable totemic issues for Lab over the past decade or two have been private school VAT and foxhunting.

Neither amount to a hill of beans economics (or indeed animal welfare-)wise but are red meat to the rank and file. And both are designed to make a point against a certain demographic who Lab believes are to be made to alter their beliefs with laws to back them up.

That doesn't come from the pages of the Speccie or the Telegraph.

That is such a warped view. The main concerns of the left are the NHS and education. Housing should have equal weight but doesn't. Fox hunting isn't in the top 20.

Your warped view comes from places like the Speccie and Telegraph, it is simply not real.

Pretty much the only policy announced by Labour prior to the election was the VAT on private schools. Which was not done to improve education - because even the densest can see that it won't benefit state school pupils - it was done to punish people using private schools. Because it is an issue which the left cares deeply about.
Now arguably it is a suboptimal situation to have a two-tier education system. But of all the pressing needs to address in education, this doesn't seem to be anywhere close to the top of the list. It is there because it is important to the activists.

Ditto foxhunting in 1997 (replace animal welfare for education). Though Lab came in in 1997 with rather more of a plan than Lab in 2024.

This is nonsense. Here is the Labour manifesto:

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-MANIFESTO-UK-2024.pdf

There are 19 pages with dozens of policies, including a page on education.

VAT on Private schools is not even mentioned. How can you believe it was their only policy? The answer is simply that it is the obsession of the right wing media, not the obsession of Labour.