I should imagine virtually all the Tugendhat votes go to Cleverly with a few for Jenrick so they probably still end up the last two
Why do you think Tugendhat supporters are more likely to go to Jenrick over Badenoch?
I can see some tactical voting among Cleverly supporters though depending on who he wants to keep out of the final two (if he has a preference). It looks like he'll have plenty of votes to spare.
On topic, are the predictions all within 240-299 for Harris/Trump? 2020 I managed to cover the range 240-330 at a profit. If it's looking 90% or more within the 240-299 range then there's value.
My photo for the day is a 3 minute video from the "Together Creating Community", about anti-wheelchair barriers on the Flintshire Coastal Path.
It includes a 3 minute video with a wheelchair using lady explaining how she used to cycle down the path all the way to Chester with her husband, but since she became disabled a decade ago cannot go there without paying a helper £20-25 an hour or taking a friend because of the barriers.
(For anyone not into these things, those A-barriers are of 1980s-1990s design.)
Surprisingly, those barriers are actually quite hard to negotiate with a backpacking pack on as well. Oh, and I think I've walked that path a couple of times.
I don't honestly see even a County Council defending this kind of position for long against that type of campaign TBH. There's enough weight there that they will get a whole series of legal actions before long, even despite the difficulties of taking such.
I should imagine virtually all the Tugendhat votes go to Cleverly with a few for Jenrick so they probably still end up the last two
Cleverly will definitely end up well ahead of anyone else tomo. Huge momentum as he goes to the members. Looks like a done deal even if Kemi scrapes it against Jenrick.
Let's hope so. Having the Tories back in the hands of the moderate one-nation wing will be a huge relief.
Would also be the first time in UK history where both main parties are led by atheists...
Have we done the covid tests for Putin story? The Dems must be sitting on so much dirt about the previous Trump administration, for the next month they can just keep dripping out whatever the media will find appetizing.
Sky News: Cleverly would rather face Jenrick than Badenoch with the members. But can he engineer that outcome by lending supporters? 39 isn't that far ahead of 31 though.
On topic, are the predictions all within 240-299 for Harris/Trump? 2020 I managed to cover the range 240-330 at a profit. If it's looking 90% or more within the 240-299 range then there's value.
“Donald J. Trump suggested in a radio interview on Monday that he had visited war-torn Gaza in the past, a place there is no record of him visiting. When asked to clarify, a campaign aide said that Gaza is “in Israel” and that Mr. Trump has visited Israel.”
I've visited Mars because Mars is in the solar system. In fact I live there.
...because I live near Guildford.
I've visited Mars, when it was in Slough. Interesting factory.
Mars is more inhabitable than Slough.
There was a story from Boris's alma mater of a school trip to the Mars factory being stopped halfway through when the Mars security team glanced at the list of Etonian names and noticed a scion of the Cadbury family among them.
Simon I believe 😂
Although his side was never involved the family business
The UK population is estimated to have risen by 1.0% in the year to June 2023, the largest annual percentage increase since comparable data began in 1971, according to a report from the Office for National Statistics
"Some 68,265,200 people were likely to have been resident in the UK in the middle of last year, up 662,400 from 67,602,800 12 months earlier."
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 11m It's tricky. I'd guess Tugendhat supporters would prefer Badenoch to Jenrick as leader, but would prefer Cleverly to either & think Cleverly had a better chance against Jenrick with the members.
Labour are chasing away the rich 1%, who pay 30% of our entire tax take. The world has changed and people can work remotely
Labour are going to run out of money, they will have to tax more and more, driving away MORE rich people - meanwhile poor people keep arriving. We’re in a doom loop
While there is definitely an exodus of millionaires - I know one or two who have already gone - the big risk is the brain drain of the young and ambitious.
What's left in broken britain for people other than to be pay pigs for unproductive spongers and boat people? If you're in your 20s, bright, ambitious, you can stay in broken britain and be taxed to the eyeballs while being unable to ever save money to get on the property ladder (and be cheated at every turn if you finally do), or you can bugger off to Dubai, pay 0% tax and like as not avoid the graduate tax aka student loan while you're at it.
It's not just the millionaires we'll lose over the next five years. It's the young and ambitious who can make more and pay less tax elsewhere.
It probably won't be long before Rachel Thieves puts in place exchange controls. The basic problem is that Labour does not understand wealth creation. It is a party for the public sector, hence the reason why NHS consultants and senior managers will retire with tax-free pension pots of £2.5M, while wealth generators will have any sale of a business that they have built up taxed, taxed and more taxed!
If she does anything like the IFS recommendation of setting CGT at income tax rates, the amount of capital flight will be catastrophic, as will the collapse in FDI. There would be no incentive whatsoever to invest in a UK business, and no incentive for anyone of serious means to stay in the country, when there are so many other countries doing their best to encourage capital.
Unlike @kjh who wants us to know (or is it believe) that he is in the "£3M to £10M range" (lol), I do know people who are leaving or giving it serious consideration. This is the difference between the current public sector obsessed Labour Party and Blair's New Labour, the latter of which understood and encouraged wealth creation. Lord Mandelson needs to advise them to get a grip quick before the economy becomes more and more fucked.
From my vantage point, in a small country well-known for having no personal income tax nor capital gains tax, with VAT at 5% and Corporation Tax 7%, rents are up around 30% year on year as the place is importing people faster than the many builders can keep up with demand.
Hi Sandpit. Cut and paste from my other post:
I did not say people won't leave for better jobs or a better life. However people who are rich who haven't left already (as per the topic) aren't now going to leave because of tax now.
They really really will
Why? What will they gain? I note @MarqueeMark liked, but he hasn't left.
This might be a misunderstanding. I am not saying the aspiring won't leave, and that is an issue. I'm not saying people won't leave for quality of life issues.
I'm particularly saying those who are well off who haven't left won't now because of tax. If they were they would have already done it. They might for a job or quality of life, but that would happen anyway.
As I said, taxes, schmaxes. But many rich people might get the feeling that this govt is coming for them and this is just the start.
Top tip - they could just cancel their Telegraph and Speccie subscriptions and this feeling would miraculously disappear. Much cheaper than leaving the country too.
The two most notable totemic issues for Lab over the past decade or two have been private school VAT and foxhunting.
Neither amount to a hill of beans economics (or indeed animal welfare-)wise but are red meat to the rank and file. And both are designed to make a point against a certain demographic who Lab believes are to be made to alter their beliefs with laws to back them up.
That doesn't come from the pages of the Speccie or the Telegraph.
That is such a warped view. The main concerns of the left are the NHS and education. Housing should have equal weight but doesn't. Fox hunting isn't in the top 20.
Your warped view comes from places like the Speccie and Telegraph, it is simply not real.
Pretty much the only policy announced by Labour prior to the election was the VAT on private schools. Which was not done to improve education - because even the densest can see that it won't benefit state school pupils - it was done to punish people using private schools. Because it is an issue which the left cares deeply about. Now arguably it is a suboptimal situation to have a two-tier education system. But of all the pressing needs to address in education, this doesn't seem to be anywhere close to the top of the list. It is there because it is important to the activists.
Ditto foxhunting in 1997 (replace animal welfare for education). Though Lab came in in 1997 with rather more of a plan than Lab in 2024.
There are 19 pages with dozens of policies, including a page on education.
VAT on Private schools is not even mentioned. How can you believe it was their only policy? The answer is simply that it is the obsession of the right wing media, not the obsession of Labour.
On a slightly pedantic note, that's the Easy Read Summary adumbrated version of the manifesto.
I should imagine virtually all the Tugendhat votes go to Cleverly with a few for Jenrick so they probably still end up the last two
Why do you think Tugendhat supporters are more likely to go to Jenrick over Badenoch?
I can see some tactical voting among Cleverly supporters though depending on who he wants to keep out of the final two (if he has a preference). It looks like he'll have plenty of votes to spare.
If you're a risk averse Tugendhat supporter and worried about Cleverly losing among members, then Jenrick's probably the guy you want in the top 2 as he's more of a traditional Tory who's shifted right tactically.
Whereas Badenoch is a law unto herself who'll probably reshape the party around he preoccupations and passions and make it the Kemi show. Which if you're a fan of hers is a good thing, but may not be if you think that won't end well - which might well be true if you were voting Tugendhat.
Democratic registered: 35,610 Republican registered: 8,806 Other 3,640
Assumes people are voting broadly along the lines they registered, then either
a) Trump is having very little success in moving his voters to coming out ahead of 5th November
or
b) Harris has some mighty momentum.
Bear in mind some of those registered Republicans might well be Haley voters lending their vote to Harris. Haley got 16% of the vote in the Republican primary six weeks AFTER she had withdrawn her candidature.
A bit more detail. That £6bn the Telegraph claims would be saved "in the lead up to the budget" is actually explained in the article itself as being over a decade.
But if you go back to the Impact Assessment for when the Tories proposed this the actual cash saving is more like ~£200m per annum afaics.
Given a) That the savings are not a lot, b) That ~90% of prescription items are already free and c) That total prescription fee income is only ~£600m per annum, I think a more rational option to address generational inequality (the article premise) would simply be to make them all free for everyone, and add the difference to the IHT or other Tax Tweek.
In this, the Telegraph has handed the Govt an opportunity to get a modest hit on the Right - if their media operation is up to it.
Comments
That would be a fascinating one.
I can see some tactical voting among Cleverly supporters though depending on who he wants to keep out of the final two (if he has a preference). It looks like he'll have plenty of votes to spare.
Trump took ‘British naval secrets’ to Mar-a-Lago, says Christopher Steele
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/08/trump-christopher-steele-book
Would also be the first time in UK history where both main parties are led by atheists...
Go James.
It’s the sort of gift between nations that happens as part of building relationships
Although his side was never involved the family business
Fake News! The Top 100 Community Noted Twitter Accounts
https://meidasnews.com/news/fake-news-the-top-100-community-noted-twitter-accounts
1.99.
"Some 68,265,200 people were likely to have been resident in the UK in the middle of last year, up 662,400 from 67,602,800 12 months earlier."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/annualmidyearpopulationestimates/mid2023
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/oct/08/labour-keir-starmer-tory-leadership-latest-politics-live-news?page=with:block-670519948f082d63bdcc3db8#block-670519948f082d63bdcc3db8
Cleverly 2.02
Badenoch 4
Jenrick 4.2
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.205526560
NEW THREAD
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
11m
It's tricky. I'd guess Tugendhat supporters would prefer Badenoch to Jenrick as leader, but would prefer Cleverly to either & think Cleverly had a better chance against Jenrick with the members.
This is the full 136 page one, and it is mentioned (plus references to "tax breaks"):
https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf
I still think that Sir Kier on the cover has a Douglas Hurd look about him.
Whereas Badenoch is a law unto herself who'll probably reshape the party around he preoccupations and passions and make it the Kemi show. Which if you're a fan of hers is a good thing, but may not be if you think that won't end well - which might well be true if you were voting Tugendhat.
Pretty sure Kemi beats him with the members, if she gets through.
Pennsylvania early voting returns data: as of today
Democratic registered: 73.3% 100,845
Republican registered: 19.0% 26,148
Other 7.7% 10,661
added since 4th October
Democratic registered: 35,610
Republican registered: 8,806
Other 3,640
Assumes people are voting broadly along the lines they registered, then either
a) Trump is having very little success in moving his voters to coming out ahead of 5th November
or
b) Harris has some mighty momentum.
Bear in mind some of those registered Republicans might well be Haley voters lending their vote to Harris. Haley got 16% of the vote in the Republican primary six weeks AFTER she had withdrawn her candidature.
But if you go back to the Impact Assessment for when the Tories proposed this the actual cash saving is more like ~£200m per annum afaics.
Here's the impact assessent. It has a full DCF-NPV analysis of multiple options and I think the £6bn is more to do with "health benefit" impact involving QALYs etc to get a notional figure. It's quite a chunky doc.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/60d5a38dd3bf7f7c2c6ba21d/impact-assessment-upper-age-prescription-exemption.pdf
Given a) That the savings are not a lot, b) That ~90% of prescription items are already free and c) That total prescription fee income is only ~£600m per annum, I think a more rational option to address generational inequality (the article premise) would simply be to make them all free for everyone, and add the difference to the IHT or other Tax Tweek.
In this, the Telegraph has handed the Govt an opportunity to get a modest hit on the Right - if their media operation is up to it.