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The State of the Union, Week 6 – politicalbetting.com

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  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942

    eek said:

    Reeves urged to scrap free prescriptions for 60- to 65-year-olds

    Move could raise the Treasury more than £6bn in lead up to Budget


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/reeves-urged-scrap-free-prescriptions-60-65-year-olds/

    I didn't know they were getting them free already anyway?

    Align it to State pension age.
    That's why it was set at 60 - because that was State pension age and equal opportunity legislation meant that men had to get it at the same age that women did.
    But it's either 67 or 68 now, right?

    Haven't googled it. Seems fairer to align there.

    We can't afford these sort of nice freebies.
    If you thought the reaction to WFP was bad...

    You've gotta respect Labour for having the courage to do stuff like this. I think it's all about settling the markets ahead of increased borrowing and capital spending in the budget.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,978
    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,422

    What is it with Labour and dodgy dossiers?

    Report used by Labour to support private school VAT raid written by minister’s friend

    Matthew Pennycook was best man at wedding of Luke Sibieta - who authored IFS report on plans


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/07/report-used-laboursupport-private-school-vat-close-friend/

    They tried a search for PhDs to rip off, but hadn’t got a subscription to the academic databases…
    To be pedantic, PhD theses are available for free in nearly all cases. Subscriptions are needed for (some) journal articles.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Torsten Bell‬ ‪@torstenbell.bsky.social‬
    ·
    1h
    The UK is seeing more deaths than births (ie natural population shrinkage) for the first time since the 1970s (pandemic aside obviously) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

    https://bsky.app/profile/torstenbell.bsky.social/post/3l5ygm6sy452f

    Something very odd about those figures. England saw very slightly more births than deaths. But Wales and Scotland see vastly more (in proportion) deaths than births?

    Eg in Scotland that’s 45,000 births and 65,000 deaths

    Is Scotland dying out? Or is this a data glitch
    Scotland a) has been struggling with birth rates for some time, and b) has been struggling with earlier deaths for some time (so the tipping point into natural shrinkage comes earlier).

    ISTR a few years ago England's birth rate was being propped up by immigrants with more children, though I don't know if this is still true.
    So without immigration the country's population would be falling/

    Has anyone told Farage?
    Well yes. But there is a happy middle ground between a falling population due to no immigration and a population increasing at its fastest rate on record - despite a sub-2 and falling birth rate - due to massive immigration. Both extremes come with considerable problems, but we're so far away from being able to control immigration that the former isn't really a problem we have to consider.
    I don’t think we’re “far away from being able to control immigration”. Immigration was high under the Conservatives because they chose for it to be high. Immigration under Labour is expected to drop from the last Tory figures.
    Expected by whom? It would seem out of character for the Labour Party to bring down immigration.
    Would it? Immigration since 2010 has been considerably higher than it was under the previous Labour administration.

    But if you want, check back with me in 12-18 months time and let’s look at the figures.
    Yeah, fair enough. Let's dissect in a year or two.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,944

    Reeves urged to scrap free prescriptions for 60- to 65-year-olds

    Move could raise the Treasury more than £6bn in lead up to Budget


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/reeves-urged-scrap-free-prescriptions-60-65-year-olds/

    Scrap free contraceptives and kill two PB birds with one stone.
    Scrap Free contraceptives for over 60s?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143
    Taz said:

    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16

    I don't understand this at all. Global trackers are very cheap nowadays and plenty of choice for tinkering to risk and geographic preferences. Just nudge private pension schemes into those, don't make it more complicated. Complicated is just a way of driving up costs here.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Torsten Bell‬ ‪@torstenbell.bsky.social‬
    ·
    1h
    The UK is seeing more deaths than births (ie natural population shrinkage) for the first time since the 1970s (pandemic aside obviously) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

    https://bsky.app/profile/torstenbell.bsky.social/post/3l5ygm6sy452f

    Something very odd about those figures. England saw very slightly more births than deaths. But Wales and Scotland see vastly more (in proportion) deaths than births?

    Eg in Scotland that’s 45,000 births and 65,000 deaths

    Is Scotland dying out? Or is this a data glitch
    Scotland a) has been struggling with birth rates for some time, and b) has been struggling with earlier deaths for some time (so the tipping point into natural shrinkage comes earlier).

    ISTR a few years ago England's birth rate was being propped up by immigrants with more children, though I don't know if this is still true.
    So without immigration the country's population would be falling/

    Has anyone told Farage?
    Well yes. But there is a happy middle ground between a falling population due to no immigration and a population increasing at its fastest rate on record - despite a sub-2 and falling birth rate - due to massive immigration. Both extremes come with considerable problems, but we're so far away from being able to control immigration that the former isn't really a problem we have to consider.
    I don’t think we’re “far away from being able to control immigration”. Immigration was high under the Conservatives because they chose for it to be high. Immigration under Labour is expected to drop from the last Tory figures.
    Expected by whom? It would seem out of character for the Labour Party to bring down immigration.
    We need a Betfair market, would be easy money betting on a decrease at the moment and plenty who simply can't see it happening to milk.
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 211
    Leon said:

    Big Dom on Chagos


    “All credit to Starmer, finally an appointment that makes sense - if the goal is *give away British territory because your human rights lawyer mates say 'there's no alternative'*, then makes sense to hire the expert on surrendering to the IRA.

    This came to my desk in No10. I said: tell the FO and Cabinet Office lawyers to fuck off, no way, no discussion.

    Boris in 2021 like on everything backtracked and started this surrender. Cleverley took dictation like the perfect NPC-minister...

    *The system is working as intended* - and the logical thing for the system to do is put Powell in as NSA, institutionalise *surrender to international lawyers* & bring clarity across the deep state.”

    https://x.com/dominic2306/status/1843601671701598403?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Oh I can just see Leon & Big Dom signing up to take on the IRA.

    Which regiment will these brave little soldiers be joining ?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682
    Leon said:

    Torsten Bell‬ ‪@torstenbell.bsky.social‬
    ·
    1h
    The UK is seeing more deaths than births (ie natural population shrinkage) for the first time since the 1970s (pandemic aside obviously) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

    https://bsky.app/profile/torstenbell.bsky.social/post/3l5ygm6sy452f

    Something very odd about those figures. England saw very slightly more births than deaths. But Wales and Scotland see vastly more (in proportion) deaths than births?

    Eg in Scotland that’s 45,000 births and 65,000 deaths

    Is Scotland dying out? Or is this a data glitch
    Possibly fewer ethnic minorities? More recent immigrants tend to have more children.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,978

    Taz said:

    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16

    I don't understand this at all. Global trackers are very cheap nowadays and plenty of choice for tinkering to risk and geographic preferences. Just nudge private pension schemes into those, don't make it more complicated. Complicated is just a way of driving up costs here.
    Exactly. Advisers like their fees and they get paid whatever their performance too.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    So anyway my kids' school is running a trip for one of the years to a local mosque (they've been studying Islam in RE recently; it's a CofE school). The year in question is still in the free school meals age group, so the school is offering pack-ups, with sandwiches of cheese, tuna or ham.

    I assume these will not be eaten on the mosque's premises, but still strikes me as a bit of an 'interesting' choice for the day trip!

    A couple of years ago my son went on a school trip to Bhaktivedanta Manor. We had to provide a packed lunch, and it was made clear that this would be eaten on the bus.

    He really enjoyed the trip; his first significant contact with Hinduism.

    i think such trips should be encouraged, to all religions.
    Yeah, my kid's been really engaged with this and last year when they studied Hinduism and did some things for Diwali. I'd not have gone for a CofE school particularly*, but I'm happy that this one is giving well rounded education and not pushing the Christianity bit excessively (I mean, if you do, how do you do it - Muslims believe this and they're wrong! :lol:)

    *The two nearest ones we liked both happened to be CofE

    Our local WEA organised a series of talks on Islam. Very informative, given by someone who'd fought in Bosnia etc.
    One of the elderly lady members was told by her husband not to attend!. She did, though!
    This is probably not the place for the discussion, but I was very struck by a radio discussion where both Jewish and Islamic priest/iman etc assert that to kill is morally wrong, yet we see (certainly for Islam() large strands of the religion(s) that seem to say it is acceptable.

    Clearly the Christian church has its own legacy of crusading, and killing the infidel with God's blessing (via the Pope) but until a religion stops being so thoroughly abhorrent then I am afraid I will continue to regard its proponents as evil.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,956
    edited October 8
    kenObi said:

    Leon said:

    Big Dom on Chagos


    “All credit to Starmer, finally an appointment that makes sense - if the goal is *give away British territory because your human rights lawyer mates say 'there's no alternative'*, then makes sense to hire the expert on surrendering to the IRA.

    This came to my desk in No10. I said: tell the FO and Cabinet Office lawyers to fuck off, no way, no discussion.

    Boris in 2021 like on everything backtracked and started this surrender. Cleverley took dictation like the perfect NPC-minister...

    *The system is working as intended* - and the logical thing for the system to do is put Powell in as NSA, institutionalise *surrender to international lawyers* & bring clarity across the deep state.”

    https://x.com/dominic2306/status/1843601671701598403?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Oh I can just see Leon & Big Dom signing up to take on the IRA.

    Which regiment will these brave little soldiers be joining ?
    Big Dom’s a snivelling little shit.

    He is such a twat that he didn’t have a single friend in London to look after his kids that he had to drive to Durham to get childcare sorted.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,956

    Reeves urged to scrap free prescriptions for 60- to 65-year-olds

    Move could raise the Treasury more than £6bn in lead up to Budget


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/reeves-urged-scrap-free-prescriptions-60-65-year-olds/

    Scrap free contraceptives and kill two PB birds with one stone.
    Scrap Free contraceptives for over 60s?
    My friend used to work in a clap clinic in the early 2000s and she was shocked by how many over 60s she had to deal with.

    Viagra was a game changer, the over 60s thought that since the women hit menopause there was no need for contraception as they couldn’t get pregnant, they didn’t realise that they could get STIs.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585
    edited October 8
    Taz said:

    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16

    It's a contribution based pension scheme - it won't have any impact on employer costs because once the money is paid into the fund by the employer that's the end of their responsibility.

    You then have the second question of would you invest in a fund that any government has control over - to which the answer is I'm not that stupid.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,882

    Just dropped in The Guardian:

    Jenrick sabotaged his Tory leadership chances at conference, survey of members suggests, with Cleverly rising fast
    Conservative members were more likely to be turned off by what they saw of Robert Jenrick at the party conference than impressed, a survey suggests.

    Jenrick arrived at the conference as the clear bookmakers’ favourite. But, according to a ConservativeHome survey of Tory members, only 23% of them said that what happened at conference made them more likely to support him – and 43% said they were less likely to support him afterwards.

    Tom Tugendhat experienced a similar loss of support – but he is expected to be out of the contest by the end of today anyway as the candidate most likely to be eliminated in today’s ballot of MPs.

    Conservative members favour Kemi Badenoch for next leader, according to numerous ConHome surveys, and proper polling, but 35% of respondents said conference made them less likely to support her, while 30% said the opposite.

    The survey suggests the big winner was James Cleverly. Some 55% of Tories said conference made him a more attractive candidate, while only 14% said it didn’t.

    ------------

    NB: PB gets a mention downstream!

    When do we get the verdict on who's being churcked out of the balloon next?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    edited October 8

    Just dropped in The Guardian:

    Jenrick sabotaged his Tory leadership chances at conference, survey of members suggests, with Cleverly rising fast
    Conservative members were more likely to be turned off by what they saw of Robert Jenrick at the party conference than impressed, a survey suggests.

    Jenrick arrived at the conference as the clear bookmakers’ favourite. But, according to a ConservativeHome survey of Tory members, only 23% of them said that what happened at conference made them more likely to support him – and 43% said they were less likely to support him afterwards.

    Tom Tugendhat experienced a similar loss of support – but he is expected to be out of the contest by the end of today anyway as the candidate most likely to be eliminated in today’s ballot of MPs.

    Conservative members favour Kemi Badenoch for next leader, according to numerous ConHome surveys, and proper polling, but 35% of respondents said conference made them less likely to support her, while 30% said the opposite.

    The survey suggests the big winner was James Cleverly. Some 55% of Tories said conference made him a more attractive candidate, while only 14% said it didn’t.

    ------------

    NB: PB gets a mention downstream!

    I watched Cleverly's speech and didn't notice anything special about it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16

    It's a contribution based pension scheme - it won't have any impact on employer costs because once the money is paid into the fund by the employer that's the end of their responsibility.

    You then have the second question of would you invest in a fund that any government has control over - to which the answer is I'm not that stupid.
    What is the advantage, if any, of the schemes being collective rather than individual?
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 211
    Taz said:

    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16

    If the driver was to get a portion invested in higher risk, higher return assets, that would be good.

    Might be better looking in silicon valley rather than Sunderland though.

    However, It appears designed to facilitate investments in "British infrastructure".

    How's that investment in Thames Water looking for the Canadian pension fund Omers (or Universities pension scheme for that matter) looking ?
  • WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 715
    edited October 8
    Andy_JS said:

    Just dropped in The Guardian:

    Jenrick sabotaged his Tory leadership chances at conference, survey of members suggests, with Cleverly rising fast
    Conservative members were more likely to be turned off by what they saw of Robert Jenrick at the party conference than impressed, a survey suggests.

    Jenrick arrived at the conference as the clear bookmakers’ favourite. But, according to a ConservativeHome survey of Tory members, only 23% of them said that what happened at conference made them more likely to support him – and 43% said they were less likely to support him afterwards.

    Tom Tugendhat experienced a similar loss of support – but he is expected to be out of the contest by the end of today anyway as the candidate most likely to be eliminated in today’s ballot of MPs.

    Conservative members favour Kemi Badenoch for next leader, according to numerous ConHome surveys, and proper polling, but 35% of respondents said conference made them less likely to support her, while 30% said the opposite.

    The survey suggests the big winner was James Cleverly. Some 55% of Tories said conference made him a more attractive candidate, while only 14% said it didn’t.

    ------------

    NB: PB gets a mention downstream!

    I watched Cleverly's speech and didn't notice anything special about it.
    No. It was pleasant enough, and that's all, he became the one to back because they wanted him to be. We saw a similar thing happen in the US with Kamala Harris. She was the hapless useless VP to good old boy Joe, and soon as the 'sensibles' needed to switch horses, she became a tower of strength and joy without actually submitting herself to any kind of scrutiny.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,012
    Leon said:

    Torsten Bell‬ ‪@torstenbell.bsky.social‬
    ·
    1h
    The UK is seeing more deaths than births (ie natural population shrinkage) for the first time since the 1970s (pandemic aside obviously) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

    https://bsky.app/profile/torstenbell.bsky.social/post/3l5ygm6sy452f

    Something very odd about those figures. England saw very slightly more births than deaths. But Wales and Scotland see vastly more (in proportion) deaths than births?

    Eg in Scotland that’s 45,000 births and 65,000 deaths

    Is Scotland dying out? Or is this a data glitch
    Having kids to live under an SNP government is a tough call. Hard to see a viable future for them.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16

    It's a contribution based pension scheme - it won't have any impact on employer costs because once the money is paid into the fund by the employer that's the end of their responsibility.

    You then have the second question of would you invest in a fund that any government has control over - to which the answer is I'm not that stupid.
    What is the advantage, if any, of the schemes being collective rather than individual?
    In theory the risk is shared across more people so in theory you could invest some of the money in more riskier ventures.

  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16

    It's a contribution based pension scheme - it won't have any impact on employer costs because once the money is paid into the fund by the employer that's the end of their responsibility.

    You then have the second question of would you invest in a fund that any government has control over - to which the answer is I'm not that stupid.
    What is the advantage, if any, of the schemes being collective rather than individual?
    The theoretical advantage is that by being collective, the scheme can invest in long-term assets rather than be bounded by the time-frame of the individual pensioner. (ie normally, you would invest in growth assets / equities for the first X years, and then as you approach retirement the fund switches to theoretically safer assets such as bonds). By being a collective scheme which has the same proportion of people at each stage of "pension journey" over time, they can keep long-term illiquid assets in the fund which might have a better return profile.

    Personally I'm somewhat unconvinced... but that's the theory at least.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,422

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    So anyway my kids' school is running a trip for one of the years to a local mosque (they've been studying Islam in RE recently; it's a CofE school). The year in question is still in the free school meals age group, so the school is offering pack-ups, with sandwiches of cheese, tuna or ham.

    I assume these will not be eaten on the mosque's premises, but still strikes me as a bit of an 'interesting' choice for the day trip!

    A couple of years ago my son went on a school trip to Bhaktivedanta Manor. We had to provide a packed lunch, and it was made clear that this would be eaten on the bus.

    He really enjoyed the trip; his first significant contact with Hinduism.

    i think such trips should be encouraged, to all religions.
    Yeah, my kid's been really engaged with this and last year when they studied Hinduism and did some things for Diwali. I'd not have gone for a CofE school particularly*, but I'm happy that this one is giving well rounded education and not pushing the Christianity bit excessively (I mean, if you do, how do you do it - Muslims believe this and they're wrong! :lol:)

    *The two nearest ones we liked both happened to be CofE

    Our local WEA organised a series of talks on Islam. Very informative, given by someone who'd fought in Bosnia etc.
    One of the elderly lady members was told by her husband not to attend!. She did, though!
    This is probably not the place for the discussion, but I was very struck by a radio discussion where both Jewish and Islamic priest/iman etc assert that to kill is morally wrong, yet we see (certainly for Islam() large strands of the religion(s) that seem to say it is acceptable.

    Clearly the Christian church has its own legacy of crusading, and killing the infidel with God's blessing (via the Pope) but until a religion stops being so thoroughly abhorrent then I am afraid I will continue to regard its proponents as evil.
    Do you cast all of a religion’s proponents as evil because of the actions of some? You’d have to consider a large proportion of the world’s population to be evil.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Siena not having a great election.
    Alongside their best national poll for Harris, they have Trump +13% in Texas.

    The latest New York Times/Siena College polls:
    National: Harris+3 - her best showing in a Times/Siena poll this cycle
    Texas: Trump+6
    Florida: Trump+13

    https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1843618979363131720

    Still, I suppose they're not herding...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,973
    Live press conference from Florida about Hurricane Milton.

    https://x.com/govrondesantis/status/1843618382962405765

    Sounds like they’re planning for a very large incident. Let’s hope it dissipates before reaching land.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,978
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16

    It's a contribution based pension scheme - it won't have any impact on employer costs because once the money is paid into the fund by the employer that's the end of their responsibility.

    You then have the second question of would you invest in a fund that any government has control over - to which the answer is I'm not that stupid.
    What is the advantage, if any, of the schemes being collective rather than individual?
    In theory the risk is shared across more people so in theory you could invest some of the money in more riskier ventures.

    And the govt, as well as the industry are saying you "should" get better returns. Not you will, they cannot give financial advice, just you "should".

    I will keep my money where it is. As far as I am concerned if Britain was worth investing in people would be doing it already. The fact it is not in the numbers required is something that should be addressed by making it more attractive to invest in not compelling pension funds to invest in "Britain"


    This from the Govt announcement. The significant appetite being the advisers and fund managers who get their cut whatever the performance.


    "Building on the significant appetite from industry for extending CDC provision, the Government is now seeking to broaden access further by allowing unconnected multiple employer schemes – making this pension model more accessible to a wider range of businesses and employees."

    "This work builds on plans to review our pensions landscape as well as our new Pension Schemes Bill which could boost pension pots – with further consolidation and broader investment strategies to possibly deliver higher returns for pensioners."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405
    edited October 8
    Nigelb said:

    Siena not having a great election.
    Alongside their best national poll for Harris, they have Trump +13% in Texas.

    The latest New York Times/Siena College polls:
    National: Harris+3 - her best showing in a Times/Siena poll this cycle
    Texas: Trump+6
    Florida: Trump+13

    https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1843618979363131720

    Still, I suppose they're not herding...

    Are you sure ?

    Trump is +6 in TX from this. Desantis romped home by 19.4 against Christ in the midterms so +13 for Florida looks potentially plausible.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    edited October 8
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Torsten Bell‬ ‪@torstenbell.bsky.social‬
    ·
    1h
    The UK is seeing more deaths than births (ie natural population shrinkage) for the first time since the 1970s (pandemic aside obviously) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

    https://bsky.app/profile/torstenbell.bsky.social/post/3l5ygm6sy452f

    Something very odd about those figures. England saw very slightly more births than deaths. But Wales and Scotland see vastly more (in proportion) deaths than births?

    Eg in Scotland that’s 45,000 births and 65,000 deaths

    Is Scotland dying out? Or is this a data glitch
    Scotland a) has been struggling with birth rates for some time, and b) has been struggling with earlier deaths for some time (so the tipping point into natural shrinkage comes earlier).

    ISTR a few years ago England's birth rate was being propped up by immigrants with more children, though I don't know if this is still true.
    So without immigration the country's population would be falling/

    Has anyone told Farage?
    A falling population is what we need. Trouble is we also need it to be younger. Which is quite hard to achieve

    We should have let Covid take out all the wrinklies and avoided any lockdown
    Mrs. P did her degree as a mature student aged 30 and was termed a 'wrinklie' at that age by fellow students (even though she had no actual wrinkles). It's all relative.

    I suspect you and most of us on here would be classed as 'wrinklies' by many.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,585
    Taz said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16

    It's a contribution based pension scheme - it won't have any impact on employer costs because once the money is paid into the fund by the employer that's the end of their responsibility.

    You then have the second question of would you invest in a fund that any government has control over - to which the answer is I'm not that stupid.
    What is the advantage, if any, of the schemes being collective rather than individual?
    In theory the risk is shared across more people so in theory you could invest some of the money in more riskier ventures.

    And the govt, as well as the industry are saying you "should" get better returns. Not you will, they cannot give financial advice, just you "should".

    I will keep my money where it is. As far as I am concerned if Britain was worth investing in people would be doing it already. The fact it is not in the numbers required is something that should be addressed by making it more attractive to invest in not compelling pension funds to invest in "Britain"


    This from the Govt announcement. The significant appetite being the advisers and fund managers who get their cut whatever the performance.


    "Building on the significant appetite from industry for extending CDC provision, the Government is now seeking to broaden access further by allowing unconnected multiple employer schemes – making this pension model more accessible to a wider range of businesses and employees."

    "This work builds on plans to review our pensions landscape as well as our new Pension Schemes Bill which could boost pension pots – with further consolidation and broader investment strategies to possibly deliver higher returns for pensioners."
    To improve investment in British industry, they need to make investment in property less attractive.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Torsten Bell‬ ‪@torstenbell.bsky.social‬
    ·
    1h
    The UK is seeing more deaths than births (ie natural population shrinkage) for the first time since the 1970s (pandemic aside obviously) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

    https://bsky.app/profile/torstenbell.bsky.social/post/3l5ygm6sy452f

    Something very odd about those figures. England saw very slightly more births than deaths. But Wales and Scotland see vastly more (in proportion) deaths than births?

    Eg in Scotland that’s 45,000 births and 65,000 deaths

    Is Scotland dying out? Or is this a data glitch
    Having kids to live under an SNP government is a tough call. Hard to see a viable future for them.
    The deal is significantly better here than it is England, particularly if you're middle class. Childcare, uni tuition, prescriptions, benefits like SCP. Our economy is better than anywhere else in the UK other than the SE of England.

    A big driver of it is simply that we have a smaller immigrant population. Despite our flat population, we also have a housing crisis with all the good jobs centred in a few urban centres, and women are increasingly highly educated and in good jobs.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16

    It's a contribution based pension scheme - it won't have any impact on employer costs because once the money is paid into the fund by the employer that's the end of their responsibility.

    You then have the second question of would you invest in a fund that any government has control over - to which the answer is I'm not that stupid.
    What is the advantage, if any, of the schemes being collective rather than individual?
    In theory the risk is shared across more people so in theory you could invest some of the money in more riskier ventures.

    Is the post office pension scheme going to have more customers than Vanguard? Or more holdings than the 30,751 in their LifeStrategy60 fund? Clearly not, but I bet it will be a damn sight more expensive.

    We can also tailor our own risk profile individually rather than collectively which makes far more sense.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632

    kinabalu said:

    Snippet from the Atlantic in a piece about the phony populism of the right:

    "Trump and those like him make a deal with the most resentful citizens in society: Keep us up in the penthouses, and we’ll harass your enemies on your behalf. We’ll punish the people you want punished. In the end, however, the joke is always on the voters."

    I like that.

    Why is this deal necessary? Without Trump in power, the rich will be evicted from their penthouses?
    Possibly, if populism went a different route. So make sure it doesn't - set up other enemies (like immigrants) to blame and get angry with. It's such a cheap and exploitative form of politics. Every time it prevails the world gets a little darker.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,012
    kenObi said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    Torsten Bell‬ ‪@torstenbell.bsky.social‬
    ·
    1h
    The UK is seeing more deaths than births (ie natural population shrinkage) for the first time since the 1970s (pandemic aside obviously) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

    https://bsky.app/profile/torstenbell.bsky.social/post/3l5ygm6sy452f

    Something very odd about those figures. England saw very slightly more births than deaths. But Wales and Scotland see vastly more (in proportion) deaths than births?

    Eg in Scotland that’s 45,000 births and 65,000 deaths

    Is Scotland dying out? Or is this a data glitch
    Wales has an an older population profile so should see more deaths than England. Not sure about Scotland. Norn has the youngest population iirc so should see the highest birth rate.
    England has a slightly more immigrant heavy population so should have slightly higher birth rates for the same age profile as the other nations, but it's not quite enough to outweigh Norn's slightly younger population *I think !
    That’s a massive disparity in Scotland however

    45k births, 65k deaths

    Almost one and a half times as many deaths as births
    Births falling in Scotland for 60 years...

    And its been remarkably consistent.
    104k births in 1964

    Deaths have been broadly level for last 50 years.
    50 - 65k per year.

    This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who has been to Scotlands main belt.
    Poor people, born in poor housing, who smoke, drink and have a poor diet without much exercise die earlier.
    Who'd a thought.
    1960 and 1961 were vintage years, if I may say so.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    How England lost their first wicket.

    https://x.com/SkyCricket/status/1843609510524461437
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,973
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16

    It's a contribution based pension scheme - it won't have any impact on employer costs because once the money is paid into the fund by the employer that's the end of their responsibility.

    You then have the second question of would you invest in a fund that any government has control over - to which the answer is I'm not that stupid.
    That would just become a piggy bank to be raided by any minister for their pet ‘infrastructure’ project, with little thought as to the returns it might make.

    You’d need to have some very serious Trustees prepared to resign on a point of principle when arguing with government. If the scheme goes South, it takes *everyone’s* pension saving with it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143
    Lennon said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16

    It's a contribution based pension scheme - it won't have any impact on employer costs because once the money is paid into the fund by the employer that's the end of their responsibility.

    You then have the second question of would you invest in a fund that any government has control over - to which the answer is I'm not that stupid.
    What is the advantage, if any, of the schemes being collective rather than individual?
    The theoretical advantage is that by being collective, the scheme can invest in long-term assets rather than be bounded by the time-frame of the individual pensioner. (ie normally, you would invest in growth assets / equities for the first X years, and then as you approach retirement the fund switches to theoretically safer assets such as bonds). By being a collective scheme which has the same proportion of people at each stage of "pension journey" over time, they can keep long-term illiquid assets in the fund which might have a better return profile.

    Personally I'm somewhat unconvinced... but that's the theory at least.
    So are they going to equalise annual returns based on some market expectations?

    If so that is going to be a nightmare as market expectations are not always correct. And if not, people can make those decisions individually more cheaply already, there is no advantage to it being collective.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,956
    edited October 8
    Patrick Nicholls eat your heart out.

    Alcoholism charity executive caught drink-driving and hiding from police in bush

    Marketing director of addiction charity receives 40-month driving ban after being found three times over legal limit


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/07/eliza-loftus-crewe-magistrates-court-drink-diving/
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,978

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16

    It's a contribution based pension scheme - it won't have any impact on employer costs because once the money is paid into the fund by the employer that's the end of their responsibility.

    You then have the second question of would you invest in a fund that any government has control over - to which the answer is I'm not that stupid.
    What is the advantage, if any, of the schemes being collective rather than individual?
    In theory the risk is shared across more people so in theory you could invest some of the money in more riskier ventures.

    Is the post office pension scheme going to have more customers than Vanguard? Or more holdings than the 30,751 in their LifeStrategy60 fund? Clearly not, but I bet it will be a damn sight more expensive.

    We can also tailor our own risk profile individually rather than collectively which makes far more sense.
    At the moment I can choose what my company DC pot invests in. Under a CDC I won't be able to.

    We know some DB pensions suffered adversely after the Mini Budget due to their exposure to LDI's.

    My old DB fund moved from 0% LDI in 2010 to 25% LDI's at the time of the mini budget.

    No accountability for the investment choice and I had no input into it. A CDC would be no different.

    However lots of well paid advisers, who are advocating these schemes, will benefit in large fees.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    kenObi said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    Torsten Bell‬ ‪@torstenbell.bsky.social‬
    ·
    1h
    The UK is seeing more deaths than births (ie natural population shrinkage) for the first time since the 1970s (pandemic aside obviously) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

    https://bsky.app/profile/torstenbell.bsky.social/post/3l5ygm6sy452f

    Something very odd about those figures. England saw very slightly more births than deaths. But Wales and Scotland see vastly more (in proportion) deaths than births?

    Eg in Scotland that’s 45,000 births and 65,000 deaths

    Is Scotland dying out? Or is this a data glitch
    Wales has an an older population profile so should see more deaths than England. Not sure about Scotland. Norn has the youngest population iirc so should see the highest birth rate.
    England has a slightly more immigrant heavy population so should have slightly higher birth rates for the same age profile as the other nations, but it's not quite enough to outweigh Norn's slightly younger population *I think !
    That’s a massive disparity in Scotland however

    45k births, 65k deaths

    Almost one and a half times as many deaths as births
    Births falling in Scotland for 60 years...

    And its been remarkably consistent.
    104k births in 1964

    Deaths have been broadly level for last 50 years.
    50 - 65k per year.

    This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who has been to Scotlands main belt.
    Poor people, born in poor housing, who smoke, drink and have a poor diet without much exercise die earlier.
    Who'd a thought.
    None of the SNP's initiatives over the last 17 years have worked?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942
    edited October 8
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16

    It's a contribution based pension scheme - it won't have any impact on employer costs because once the money is paid into the fund by the employer that's the end of their responsibility.

    You then have the second question of would you invest in a fund that any government has control over - to which the answer is I'm not that stupid.
    That would just become a piggy bank to be raided by any minister for their pet ‘infrastructure’ project, with little thought as to the returns it might make.

    You’d need to have some very serious Trustees prepared to resign on a point of principle when arguing with government. If the scheme goes South, it takes *everyone’s* pension saving with it.
    Isn't that the same as any public sector pension? There is nothing compelling a future government to pay those out.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,012
    Andy_JS said:

    How England lost their first wicket.

    https://x.com/SkyCricket/status/1843609510524461437

    Stokes like.
  • kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Big Dom on Chagos

    “All credit to Starmer, finally an appointment that makes sense - if the goal is *give away British territory because your human rights lawyer mates say 'there's no alternative'*, then makes sense to hire the expert on surrendering to the IRA.

    This came to my desk in No10. I said: tell the FO and Cabinet Office lawyers to fuck off, no way, no discussion.

    Boris in 2021 like on everything backtracked and started this surrender. Cleverley took dictation like the perfect NPC-minister...

    *The system is working as intended* - and the logical thing for the system to do is put Powell in as NSA, institutionalise *surrender to international lawyers* & bring clarity across the deep state.”

    https://x.com/dominic2306/status/1843601671701598403?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    He sounds deranged.
    Deranged people can often be right. Does it not sound fairly likely?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,858
    edited October 8
    Andy_JS said:

    Just dropped in The Guardian:

    Jenrick sabotaged his Tory leadership chances at conference, survey of members suggests, with Cleverly rising fast
    Conservative members were more likely to be turned off by what they saw of Robert Jenrick at the party conference than impressed, a survey suggests.

    Jenrick arrived at the conference as the clear bookmakers’ favourite. But, according to a ConservativeHome survey of Tory members, only 23% of them said that what happened at conference made them more likely to support him – and 43% said they were less likely to support him afterwards.

    Tom Tugendhat experienced a similar loss of support – but he is expected to be out of the contest by the end of today anyway as the candidate most likely to be eliminated in today’s ballot of MPs.

    Conservative members favour Kemi Badenoch for next leader, according to numerous ConHome surveys, and proper polling, but 35% of respondents said conference made them less likely to support her, while 30% said the opposite.

    The survey suggests the big winner was James Cleverly. Some 55% of Tories said conference made him a more attractive candidate, while only 14% said it didn’t.

    ------------

    NB: PB gets a mention downstream!

    I watched Cleverly's speech and didn't notice anything special about it.
    That, as Sherlock Holmes would say, was the curious incident.

    Tugendhat (sadly - politically he's the best candidate) - hasn't got the right stuff at all, and the other two are in different ways capable of toxicity.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,973
    Andy_JS said:

    How England lost their first wicket.

    https://x.com/SkyCricket/status/1843609510524461437

    Yeah that was a good catch. Unlucky for Pope, but a duck is still a duck 🦆
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,973

    Patrick Nicholls eat your heart out.

    Alcoholism charity executive caught drink-driving and hiding from police in bush

    Marketing director of addiction charity receives 40-month driving ban after being found three times over legal limit


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/07/eliza-loftus-crewe-magistrates-court-drink-diving/

    Alcohol addiction charity employs alcoholics, how unusual!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632
    Andy_JS said:

    Just dropped in The Guardian:

    Jenrick sabotaged his Tory leadership chances at conference, survey of members suggests, with Cleverly rising fast
    Conservative members were more likely to be turned off by what they saw of Robert Jenrick at the party conference than impressed, a survey suggests.

    Jenrick arrived at the conference as the clear bookmakers’ favourite. But, according to a ConservativeHome survey of Tory members, only 23% of them said that what happened at conference made them more likely to support him – and 43% said they were less likely to support him afterwards.

    Tom Tugendhat experienced a similar loss of support – but he is expected to be out of the contest by the end of today anyway as the candidate most likely to be eliminated in today’s ballot of MPs.

    Conservative members favour Kemi Badenoch for next leader, according to numerous ConHome surveys, and proper polling, but 35% of respondents said conference made them less likely to support her, while 30% said the opposite.

    The survey suggests the big winner was James Cleverly. Some 55% of Tories said conference made him a more attractive candidate, while only 14% said it didn’t.

    ------------

    NB: PB gets a mention downstream!

    I watched Cleverly's speech and didn't notice anything special about it.
    He was the only one of the four who used a lecturn rather than wandering about the stage trying to look on fire and vibey.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that Euston was always the wrong terminus for HS2. It is crowded already and doesn’t have the same connections, including Eurostar, as Kings Cross St Pancras half a mile up the road.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/nils-pratley-on-finance/2024/oct/07/euston-is-a-problem-without-a-good-solution
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Torsten Bell‬ ‪@torstenbell.bsky.social‬
    ·
    1h
    The UK is seeing more deaths than births (ie natural population shrinkage) for the first time since the 1970s (pandemic aside obviously) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

    https://bsky.app/profile/torstenbell.bsky.social/post/3l5ygm6sy452f

    Something very odd about those figures. England saw very slightly more births than deaths. But Wales and Scotland see vastly more (in proportion) deaths than births?

    Eg in Scotland that’s 45,000 births and 65,000 deaths

    Is Scotland dying out? Or is this a data glitch
    Scotland a) has been struggling with birth rates for some time, and b) has been struggling with earlier deaths for some time (so the tipping point into natural shrinkage comes earlier).

    ISTR a few years ago England's birth rate was being propped up by immigrants with more children, though I don't know if this is still true.
    So without immigration the country's population would be falling/

    Has anyone told Farage?
    A falling population is what we need. Trouble is we also need it to be younger. Which is quite hard to achieve

    We should have let Covid take out all the wrinklies and avoided any lockdown
    Mrs. P did her degree as a mature student aged 30 and was termed a 'wrinklie' at that age by fellow students (even though she had no actual wrinkles). It's all relative.

    I suspect you and most of us on here would be classed as 'wrinklies' by many.
    I'm certainly no spring chicken.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,858

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    So anyway my kids' school is running a trip for one of the years to a local mosque (they've been studying Islam in RE recently; it's a CofE school). The year in question is still in the free school meals age group, so the school is offering pack-ups, with sandwiches of cheese, tuna or ham.

    I assume these will not be eaten on the mosque's premises, but still strikes me as a bit of an 'interesting' choice for the day trip!

    A couple of years ago my son went on a school trip to Bhaktivedanta Manor. We had to provide a packed lunch, and it was made clear that this would be eaten on the bus.

    He really enjoyed the trip; his first significant contact with Hinduism.

    i think such trips should be encouraged, to all religions.
    Yeah, my kid's been really engaged with this and last year when they studied Hinduism and did some things for Diwali. I'd not have gone for a CofE school particularly*, but I'm happy that this one is giving well rounded education and not pushing the Christianity bit excessively (I mean, if you do, how do you do it - Muslims believe this and they're wrong! :lol:)

    *The two nearest ones we liked both happened to be CofE

    Our local WEA organised a series of talks on Islam. Very informative, given by someone who'd fought in Bosnia etc.
    One of the elderly lady members was told by her husband not to attend!. She did, though!
    This is probably not the place for the discussion, but I was very struck by a radio discussion where both Jewish and Islamic priest/iman etc assert that to kill is morally wrong, yet we see (certainly for Islam() large strands of the religion(s) that seem to say it is acceptable.

    Clearly the Christian church has its own legacy of crusading, and killing the infidel with God's blessing (via the Pope) but until a religion stops being so thoroughly abhorrent then I am afraid I will continue to regard its proponents as evil.
    Do you cast all of a religion’s proponents as evil because of the actions of some? You’d have to consider a large proportion of the world’s population to be evil.
    'Religion' is an abstract word, like 'atheism' or 'agnosticism' or 'secular' or 'Marxism'.

    I don't blame any of these words for the evils of humans, whatever guise they adopt. And, BTW, there is no point in blaming God for anything unless there is a God.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,141
    DavidL said:

    kenObi said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    Torsten Bell‬ ‪@torstenbell.bsky.social‬
    ·
    1h
    The UK is seeing more deaths than births (ie natural population shrinkage) for the first time since the 1970s (pandemic aside obviously) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

    https://bsky.app/profile/torstenbell.bsky.social/post/3l5ygm6sy452f

    Something very odd about those figures. England saw very slightly more births than deaths. But Wales and Scotland see vastly more (in proportion) deaths than births?

    Eg in Scotland that’s 45,000 births and 65,000 deaths

    Is Scotland dying out? Or is this a data glitch
    Wales has an an older population profile so should see more deaths than England. Not sure about Scotland. Norn has the youngest population iirc so should see the highest birth rate.
    England has a slightly more immigrant heavy population so should have slightly higher birth rates for the same age profile as the other nations, but it's not quite enough to outweigh Norn's slightly younger population *I think !
    That’s a massive disparity in Scotland however

    45k births, 65k deaths

    Almost one and a half times as many deaths as births
    Births falling in Scotland for 60 years...

    And its been remarkably consistent.
    104k births in 1964

    Deaths have been broadly level for last 50 years.
    50 - 65k per year.

    This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who has been to Scotlands main belt.
    Poor people, born in poor housing, who smoke, drink and have a poor diet without much exercise die earlier.
    Who'd a thought.
    1960 and 1961 were vintage years, if I may say so.
    The Eeyore gene prevalent in that cohort evidently.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Big Dom on Chagos

    “All credit to Starmer, finally an appointment that makes sense - if the goal is *give away British territory because your human rights lawyer mates say 'there's no alternative'*, then makes sense to hire the expert on surrendering to the IRA.

    This came to my desk in No10. I said: tell the FO and Cabinet Office lawyers to fuck off, no way, no discussion.

    Boris in 2021 like on everything backtracked and started this surrender. Cleverley took dictation like the perfect NPC-minister...

    *The system is working as intended* - and the logical thing for the system to do is put Powell in as NSA, institutionalise *surrender to international lawyers* & bring clarity across the deep state.”

    https://x.com/dominic2306/status/1843601671701598403?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    He sounds deranged.
    Deranged people can often be right. Does it not sound fairly likely?
    US ambassador is more likely I think.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Siena not having a great election.
    Alongside their best national poll for Harris, they have Trump +13% in Texas.

    The latest New York Times/Siena College polls:
    National: Harris+3 - her best showing in a Times/Siena poll this cycle
    Texas: Trump+6
    Florida: Trump+13

    https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1843618979363131720

    Still, I suppose they're not herding...

    Are you sure ?

    Trump is +6 in TX from this. Desantis romped home by 19.4 against Christ in the midterms so +13 for Florida looks potentially plausible.
    +6 Texas and +13 Florida seems an unlikely combo?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that Euston was always the wrong terminus for HS2. It is crowded already and doesn’t have the same connections, including Eurostar, as Kings Cross St Pancras half a mile up the road.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/nils-pratley-on-finance/2024/oct/07/euston-is-a-problem-without-a-good-solution

    Love to know where he proposes to put the platforms at Kings Cross St Pancras.

    It ended up at Euston because that is where the space is available..
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632

    Andy_JS said:

    Just dropped in The Guardian:

    Jenrick sabotaged his Tory leadership chances at conference, survey of members suggests, with Cleverly rising fast
    Conservative members were more likely to be turned off by what they saw of Robert Jenrick at the party conference than impressed, a survey suggests.

    Jenrick arrived at the conference as the clear bookmakers’ favourite. But, according to a ConservativeHome survey of Tory members, only 23% of them said that what happened at conference made them more likely to support him – and 43% said they were less likely to support him afterwards.

    Tom Tugendhat experienced a similar loss of support – but he is expected to be out of the contest by the end of today anyway as the candidate most likely to be eliminated in today’s ballot of MPs.

    Conservative members favour Kemi Badenoch for next leader, according to numerous ConHome surveys, and proper polling, but 35% of respondents said conference made them less likely to support her, while 30% said the opposite.

    The survey suggests the big winner was James Cleverly. Some 55% of Tories said conference made him a more attractive candidate, while only 14% said it didn’t.

    ------------

    NB: PB gets a mention downstream!

    I watched Cleverly's speech and didn't notice anything special about it.
    No. It was pleasant enough, and that's all, he became the one to back because they wanted him to be. We saw a similar thing happen in the US with Kamala Harris. She was the hapless useless VP to good old boy Joe, and soon as the 'sensibles' needed to switch horses, she became a tower of strength and joy without actually submitting herself to any kind of scrutiny.
    It was people on the right who were forever pushing the 'useless Kamala' trope.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,882

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Torsten Bell‬ ‪@torstenbell.bsky.social‬
    ·
    1h
    The UK is seeing more deaths than births (ie natural population shrinkage) for the first time since the 1970s (pandemic aside obviously) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

    https://bsky.app/profile/torstenbell.bsky.social/post/3l5ygm6sy452f

    Something very odd about those figures. England saw very slightly more births than deaths. But Wales and Scotland see vastly more (in proportion) deaths than births?

    Eg in Scotland that’s 45,000 births and 65,000 deaths

    Is Scotland dying out? Or is this a data glitch
    Scotland a) has been struggling with birth rates for some time, and b) has been struggling with earlier deaths for some time (so the tipping point into natural shrinkage comes earlier).

    ISTR a few years ago England's birth rate was being propped up by immigrants with more children, though I don't know if this is still true.
    So without immigration the country's population would be falling/

    Has anyone told Farage?
    Not mentioned here much is that Scotland has much lower levels of immigration than England.

    It receives 6% of immigrants to the UK vs having 8%+ of population.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw4y7p8gx37o

    If they had a similar level, would this even be happening?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    "Dutch museum worker accidently threw 'meticulous' beer can artwork in bin"

    https://www.itv.com/news/2024-10-08/dutch-museum-worker-accidently-threw-meticulous-beer-can-artwork-in-bin
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,882
    eek said:

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that Euston was always the wrong terminus for HS2. It is crowded already and doesn’t have the same connections, including Eurostar, as Kings Cross St Pancras half a mile up the road.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/nils-pratley-on-finance/2024/oct/07/euston-is-a-problem-without-a-good-solution

    Love to know where he proposes to put the platforms at Kings Cross St Pancras.

    It ended up at Euston because that is where the space is available..
    They could be developed as an "air rights" development over Bishopsgate, or a "ground rights" one above the tube ? :smile:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Big Dom on Chagos

    “All credit to Starmer, finally an appointment that makes sense - if the goal is *give away British territory because your human rights lawyer mates say 'there's no alternative'*, then makes sense to hire the expert on surrendering to the IRA.

    This came to my desk in No10. I said: tell the FO and Cabinet Office lawyers to fuck off, no way, no discussion.

    Boris in 2021 like on everything backtracked and started this surrender. Cleverley took dictation like the perfect NPC-minister...

    *The system is working as intended* - and the logical thing for the system to do is put Powell in as NSA, institutionalise *surrender to international lawyers* & bring clarity across the deep state.”

    https://x.com/dominic2306/status/1843601671701598403?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    He sounds deranged.
    Deranged people can often be right. Does it not sound fairly likely?
    Yes I can imagine Dominic Cummings saying "fuck off, no way" to something but it being done anyway.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,973
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just dropped in The Guardian:

    Jenrick sabotaged his Tory leadership chances at conference, survey of members suggests, with Cleverly rising fast
    Conservative members were more likely to be turned off by what they saw of Robert Jenrick at the party conference than impressed, a survey suggests.

    Jenrick arrived at the conference as the clear bookmakers’ favourite. But, according to a ConservativeHome survey of Tory members, only 23% of them said that what happened at conference made them more likely to support him – and 43% said they were less likely to support him afterwards.

    Tom Tugendhat experienced a similar loss of support – but he is expected to be out of the contest by the end of today anyway as the candidate most likely to be eliminated in today’s ballot of MPs.

    Conservative members favour Kemi Badenoch for next leader, according to numerous ConHome surveys, and proper polling, but 35% of respondents said conference made them less likely to support her, while 30% said the opposite.

    The survey suggests the big winner was James Cleverly. Some 55% of Tories said conference made him a more attractive candidate, while only 14% said it didn’t.

    ------------

    NB: PB gets a mention downstream!

    I watched Cleverly's speech and didn't notice anything special about it.
    No. It was pleasant enough, and that's all, he became the one to back because they wanted him to be. We saw a similar thing happen in the US with Kamala Harris. She was the hapless useless VP to good old boy Joe, and soon as the 'sensibles' needed to switch horses, she became a tower of strength and joy without actually submitting herself to any kind of scrutiny.
    It was people on the right who were forever pushing the 'useless Kamala' trope.
    The polling had her as the most unpopular VP on record. Her approval in March this year was 36%

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16

    It's a contribution based pension scheme - it won't have any impact on employer costs because once the money is paid into the fund by the employer that's the end of their responsibility.

    You then have the second question of would you invest in a fund that any government has control over - to which the answer is I'm not that stupid.
    What is the advantage, if any, of the schemes being collective rather than individual?
    In theory the risk is shared across more people so in theory you could invest some of the money in more riskier ventures.

    Is the post office pension scheme going to have more customers than Vanguard? Or more holdings than the 30,751 in their LifeStrategy60 fund? Clearly not, but I bet it will be a damn sight more expensive.

    We can also tailor our own risk profile individually rather than collectively which makes far more sense.
    You can, I can, probably most on here can. But plenty can't.

    I reckon it would be beyond a majority in the country.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Sandpit said:

    Live press conference from Florida about Hurricane Milton.

    https://x.com/govrondesantis/status/1843618382962405765

    Sounds like they’re planning for a very large incident. Let’s hope it dissipates before reaching land.

    Speaker Johnson needs to recall Congress asap. Otherwise several programs won't have funding to deal with the consequences.

    He refused after the NC hurricane, but it's now leaning towards critical.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,437
    eek said:

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that Euston was always the wrong terminus for HS2. It is crowded already and doesn’t have the same connections, including Eurostar, as Kings Cross St Pancras half a mile up the road.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/nils-pratley-on-finance/2024/oct/07/euston-is-a-problem-without-a-good-solution

    Love to know where he proposes to put the platforms at Kings Cross St Pancras.

    It ended up at Euston because that is where the space is available..
    It has to be Euston, sadly.

    As I've said passim, a sane plan would have been for Crossrail to have been planned and designed to cope with HS2 sets; allowing (say) one service an hour to interconnect at Old Oak Common, go through central London on Crossrail, then join HS1 at Stratford to go on to Europe, if required, or Kent. It's far too late now, but that would have been true transport planning at its best.

    It's really annoying when you see how close HS1 and Crossrail are at Stratford, and HS2 and Crossrail will be at OOC. It is a massively wasted opportunity.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,932
    Andy_JS said:

    "Dutch museum worker accidently threw 'meticulous' beer can artwork in bin"

    https://www.itv.com/news/2024-10-08/dutch-museum-worker-accidently-threw-meticulous-beer-can-artwork-in-bin

    Maybe the Museum worker was taking part in some interactive art.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    This stuff is blatantly unconstitutional.
    One state has no legal standing at all to comment on how another conducts its elections.

    https://www.wvlegislature.gov/Bill_Status/bills_text.cfm?billdoc=hcr203 intr.htm&yr=2024&sesstype=2X&i=203&houseorig=h&billtype=cr

    "... the State of West Virginia will not recognize an election of a candidate for President during the 2024 election cycle if the Attorney General of West Virginia or the Secretary of State of West Virginia, in consultation with the West Virginia Legislature, determine that election fraud in any state was a major reason that resulted in a candidate for President obtaining a majority in the Electoral College"..
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585
    edited October 8

    eek said:

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that Euston was always the wrong terminus for HS2. It is crowded already and doesn’t have the same connections, including Eurostar, as Kings Cross St Pancras half a mile up the road.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/nils-pratley-on-finance/2024/oct/07/euston-is-a-problem-without-a-good-solution

    Love to know where he proposes to put the platforms at Kings Cross St Pancras.

    It ended up at Euston because that is where the space is available..
    It has to be Euston, sadly.

    As I've said passim, a sane plan would have been for Crossrail to have been planned and designed to cope with HS2 sets; allowing (say) one service an hour to interconnect at Old Oak Common, go through central London on Crossrail, then join HS1 at Stratford to go on to Europe, if required, or Kent. It's far too late now, but that would have been true transport planning at its best.

    It's really annoying when you see how close HS1 and Crossrail are at Stratford, and HS2 and Crossrail will be at OOC. It is a massively wasted opportunity.
    Given the work required and the complexity of Crossrail's signaling it would have added a few more billion to the cost.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Torsten Bell‬ ‪@torstenbell.bsky.social‬
    ·
    1h
    The UK is seeing more deaths than births (ie natural population shrinkage) for the first time since the 1970s (pandemic aside obviously) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

    https://bsky.app/profile/torstenbell.bsky.social/post/3l5ygm6sy452f

    Something very odd about those figures. England saw very slightly more births than deaths. But Wales and Scotland see vastly more (in proportion) deaths than births?

    Eg in Scotland that’s 45,000 births and 65,000 deaths

    Is Scotland dying out? Or is this a data glitch
    Having kids to live under an SNP government is a tough call. Hard to see a viable future for them.
    It is instead, perhaps a sign that many people born in England move to Scotland or Wales and stay there for the rest of their lives?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069

    eek said:

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that Euston was always the wrong terminus for HS2. It is crowded already and doesn’t have the same connections, including Eurostar, as Kings Cross St Pancras half a mile up the road.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/nils-pratley-on-finance/2024/oct/07/euston-is-a-problem-without-a-good-solution

    Love to know where he proposes to put the platforms at Kings Cross St Pancras.

    It ended up at Euston because that is where the space is available..
    It has to be Euston, sadly.

    As I've said passim, a sane plan would have been for Crossrail to have been planned and designed to cope with HS2 sets; allowing (say) one service an hour to interconnect at Old Oak Common, go through central London on Crossrail, then join HS1 at Stratford to go on to Europe, if required, or Kent. It's far too late now, but that would have been true transport planning at its best.

    It's really annoying when you see how close HS1 and Crossrail are at Stratford, and HS2 and Crossrail will be at OOC. It is a massively wasted opportunity.
    The problem with that is that Crossrail is a stopping service - the high speed train would have either had to run slowly through Central London, or the frequency of crossrail would have to be severely compromised. And underground stations with 400m platforms for HS2 trains are VERY expensive.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,932
    @Nigel_Foremain I have sent you a DM.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832

    Just dropped in The Guardian:

    Jenrick sabotaged his Tory leadership chances at conference, survey of members suggests, with Cleverly rising fast
    Conservative members were more likely to be turned off by what they saw of Robert Jenrick at the party conference than impressed, a survey suggests.

    Jenrick arrived at the conference as the clear bookmakers’ favourite. But, according to a ConservativeHome survey of Tory members, only 23% of them said that what happened at conference made them more likely to support him – and 43% said they were less likely to support him afterwards.

    Tom Tugendhat experienced a similar loss of support – but he is expected to be out of the contest by the end of today anyway as the candidate most likely to be eliminated in today’s ballot of MPs.

    Conservative members favour Kemi Badenoch for next leader, according to numerous ConHome surveys, and proper polling, but 35% of respondents said conference made them less likely to support her, while 30% said the opposite.

    The survey suggests the big winner was James Cleverly. Some 55% of Tories said conference made him a more attractive candidate, while only 14% said it didn’t.

    ------------

    NB: PB gets a mention downstream!

    I for one welcome our new lurkers from the Guardian-reading, tofu-eating wokerati!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just dropped in The Guardian:

    Jenrick sabotaged his Tory leadership chances at conference, survey of members suggests, with Cleverly rising fast
    Conservative members were more likely to be turned off by what they saw of Robert Jenrick at the party conference than impressed, a survey suggests.

    Jenrick arrived at the conference as the clear bookmakers’ favourite. But, according to a ConservativeHome survey of Tory members, only 23% of them said that what happened at conference made them more likely to support him – and 43% said they were less likely to support him afterwards.

    Tom Tugendhat experienced a similar loss of support – but he is expected to be out of the contest by the end of today anyway as the candidate most likely to be eliminated in today’s ballot of MPs.

    Conservative members favour Kemi Badenoch for next leader, according to numerous ConHome surveys, and proper polling, but 35% of respondents said conference made them less likely to support her, while 30% said the opposite.

    The survey suggests the big winner was James Cleverly. Some 55% of Tories said conference made him a more attractive candidate, while only 14% said it didn’t.

    ------------

    NB: PB gets a mention downstream!

    I watched Cleverly's speech and didn't notice anything special about it.
    No. It was pleasant enough, and that's all, he became the one to back because they wanted him to be. We saw a similar thing happen in the US with Kamala Harris. She was the hapless useless VP to good old boy Joe, and soon as the 'sensibles' needed to switch horses, she became a tower of strength and joy without actually submitting herself to any kind of scrutiny.
    It was people on the right who were forever pushing the 'useless Kamala' trope.
    The polling had her as the most unpopular VP on record. Her approval in March this year was 36%

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/
    I'm not saying she was popular as VP. She wasn't. I'm just pointing out that it wasn't the so-called Sensibles who were going around slagging her off as useless. It was a different crew entirely.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16

    It's a contribution based pension scheme - it won't have any impact on employer costs because once the money is paid into the fund by the employer that's the end of their responsibility.

    You then have the second question of would you invest in a fund that any government has control over - to which the answer is I'm not that stupid.
    What is the advantage, if any, of the schemes being collective rather than individual?
    In theory the risk is shared across more people so in theory you could invest some of the money in more riskier ventures.

    Is the post office pension scheme going to have more customers than Vanguard? Or more holdings than the 30,751 in their LifeStrategy60 fund? Clearly not, but I bet it will be a damn sight more expensive.

    We can also tailor our own risk profile individually rather than collectively which makes far more sense.
    You can, I can, probably most on here can. But plenty can't.

    I reckon it would be beyond a majority in the country.
    I assume because you are on a defined benefit pension? Those are generally better than those of us with flexibility to choose our risk profile have.

    Pension transfers are relatively simple otherwise aiui.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,422
    Trump Says He’s Visited Gaza, but No Record of Such a Trip Exists

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/us/politics/trump-gaza-israel.html

    “Donald J. Trump suggested in a radio interview on Monday that he had visited war-torn Gaza in the past, a place there is no record of him visiting. When asked to clarify, a campaign aide said that Gaza is “in Israel” and that Mr. Trump has visited Israel.”
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585
    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    It is hard to avoid the conclusion that Euston was always the wrong terminus for HS2. It is crowded already and doesn’t have the same connections, including Eurostar, as Kings Cross St Pancras half a mile up the road.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/nils-pratley-on-finance/2024/oct/07/euston-is-a-problem-without-a-good-solution

    Love to know where he proposes to put the platforms at Kings Cross St Pancras.

    It ended up at Euston because that is where the space is available..
    J K Rowling managed to at King's Cross.
    If you've actually seen platform 9 at Kings Cross you would know that Hogwarts is in a parallel universe where Kings Cross doesn't have a platform 0..
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,882
    edited October 8
    Duplicat. Meow.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,882
    edited October 8
    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    Reeves urged to scrap free prescriptions for 60- to 65-year-olds

    Move could raise the Treasury more than £6bn in lead up to Budget


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/reeves-urged-scrap-free-prescriptions-60-65-year-olds/

    I didn't know they were getting them free already anyway?

    Align it to State pension age.
    That's why it was set at 60 - because that was State pension age and equal opportunity legislation meant that men had to get it at the same age that women did.
    But it's either 67 or 68 now, right?

    Haven't googled it. Seems fairer to align there.

    We can't afford these sort of nice freebies.
    If you thought the reaction to WFP was bad...

    You've gotta respect Labour for having the courage to do stuff like this. I think it's all about settling the markets ahead of increased borrowing and capital spending in the budget.
    It's not Labour :smile: (unless someone has a link?). It's the Telegraph quoting a report from the Intergenerational Federation.

    The people who consulted on this were the Johnson Government. The T are trying to scaremonger their youngest readers in the 60-66 age bracket.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/aligning-the-upper-age-for-nhs-prescription-charge-exemptions-with-the-state-pension-age

    Here's the link to the consultation report published in 2023:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/aligning-the-upper-age-for-nhs-prescription-charge-exemptions-with-the-state-pension-age/outcome/aligning-the-upper-age-for-nhs-prescription-charge-exemptions-with-the-state-pension-age-government-response

    Rishi Sunk's Govt ran away from doing it, unsurprisingly (I think June 2023 was his time on the rotatory, wasn't it?):
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/free-prescription-age-frozen-at-60

    AFAICS the numbers in the Telegraph article are standard Telegraph Turbo-Bollocks, but I'll post that separately.

    They are trying to seed fake narratives to scare Tory supporters back into line, and running flags up flagpoles to see what works. That or the writer dropped his bifocals.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,379

    Just dropped in The Guardian:

    Jenrick sabotaged his Tory leadership chances at conference, survey of members suggests, with Cleverly rising fast
    Conservative members were more likely to be turned off by what they saw of Robert Jenrick at the party conference than impressed, a survey suggests.

    Jenrick arrived at the conference as the clear bookmakers’ favourite. But, according to a ConservativeHome survey of Tory members, only 23% of them said that what happened at conference made them more likely to support him – and 43% said they were less likely to support him afterwards.

    Tom Tugendhat experienced a similar loss of support – but he is expected to be out of the contest by the end of today anyway as the candidate most likely to be eliminated in today’s ballot of MPs.

    Conservative members favour Kemi Badenoch for next leader, according to numerous ConHome surveys, and proper polling, but 35% of respondents said conference made them less likely to support her, while 30% said the opposite.

    The survey suggests the big winner was James Cleverly. Some 55% of Tories said conference made him a more attractive candidate, while only 14% said it didn’t.

    ------------

    NB: PB gets a mention downstream!

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/oct/08/labour-keir-starmer-tory-leadership-latest-politics-live-news?page=with:block-6704f5258f080291b5187ec5#block-6704f5258f080291b5187ec5
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    Am I the only PBer that’s actually BEEN INSIDE a crack den? Because I have

    Moss Side, Manchester, about 1995

    TBH I’d be surprised if it resembled Theresa May’s apartment at Number 10. It was a derelict council flat with zero furniture and water dripping in through the ceiling and a pervasive smell of urine and dirt. There was barely any light - most of it came from the flames the users applied to the drugs. Rats skittered along the kitchen floor. And the guy who helped us score had a massive wound in his chest from a recent shot gun blast and when he got high he kept stripping off to proudly show us the atrocious scar

    I know Number 10 can be a “crazy place” but really?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,521
    edited October 8
    538 actually has Trump leading in North Carolina by 0.9%.

    It's all far too close for comfort.

    WRT the Senate, my view is that if Ohio goes for Trump by 5% +, Brown will not hold his seat. Popular Senators can obtain a personal vote, but not enough to run hugely against the tide.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,882
    Leon said:

    Am I the only PBer that’s actually BEEN INSIDE a crack den? Because I have

    Moss Side, Manchester, about 1995

    TBH I’d be surprised if it resembled Theresa May’s apartment at Number 10. It was a derelict council flat with zero furniture and water dripping in through the ceiling and a pervasive smell of urine and dirt. There was barely any light - most of it came from the flames the users applied to the drugs. Rats skittered along the kitchen floor. And the guy who helped us score had a massive wound in his chest from a recent shot gun blast and when he got high he kept stripping off to proudly show us the atrocious scar

    I know Number 10 can be a “crazy place” but really?

    If you can remember did you get the real experience? :wink:
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,226
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16

    It's a contribution based pension scheme - it won't have any impact on employer costs because once the money is paid into the fund by the employer that's the end of their responsibility.

    You then have the second question of would you invest in a fund that any government has control over - to which the answer is I'm not that stupid.
    What is the advantage, if any, of the schemes being collective rather than individual?
    In theory the risk is shared across more people so in theory you could invest some of the money in more riskier ventures.

    How does this differ from the arrangement presently commonplace of getting your pension provider to buy units from an investment fund designed to do exactly that?

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942
    edited October 8
    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    Reeves urged to scrap free prescriptions for 60- to 65-year-olds

    Move could raise the Treasury more than £6bn in lead up to Budget


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/reeves-urged-scrap-free-prescriptions-60-65-year-olds/

    I didn't know they were getting them free already anyway?

    Align it to State pension age.
    That's why it was set at 60 - because that was State pension age and equal opportunity legislation meant that men had to get it at the same age that women did.
    But it's either 67 or 68 now, right?

    Haven't googled it. Seems fairer to align there.

    We can't afford these sort of nice freebies.
    If you thought the reaction to WFP was bad...

    You've gotta respect Labour for having the courage to do stuff like this. I think it's all about settling the markets ahead of increased borrowing and capital spending in the budget.
    It's not Labour :smile: (unless someone has a link?). It's the Telegraph quoting a report from the Intergenerational Federation.

    The people who consulted on this were the Johnson Government. The T are trying to scaremonger their youngest readers in the 60-66 age bracket.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/aligning-the-upper-age-for-nhs-prescription-charge-exemptions-with-the-state-pension-age

    Here's the link to the consultation report published in 2023:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/aligning-the-upper-age-for-nhs-prescription-charge-exemptions-with-the-state-pension-age/outcome/aligning-the-upper-age-for-nhs-prescription-charge-exemptions-with-the-state-pension-age-government-response

    Rishi Sunk's Govt ran away from doing it, unsurprisingly (I think June 2023 was his time on the rotatory, wasn't it?):
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/free-prescription-age-frozen-at-60

    AFAICS the numbers in the Telegraph article are standard Telegraph Turbo-Bollocks, but I'll post that separately.

    They are trying to seed fake narratives to scare Tory supporters back into line, and running flags up flagpoles to see what works. That or the writer dropped his bifocals.
    I'm getting quite fed up with the Telegraph.

    Thanks for spending the time to dig that all out.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,897
    If Kamala Harris wins the election and becomes President and if there isn't an election in Ireland before the inauguration next January, or Fine Gael win enough seats to remain in office, then we will have a Harris as head of Government in Ireland and as head of Government in the US.

    Have two countries ever had executive leaders with the same surname at the same time before?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    edited October 8

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16

    It's a contribution based pension scheme - it won't have any impact on employer costs because once the money is paid into the fund by the employer that's the end of their responsibility.

    You then have the second question of would you invest in a fund that any government has control over - to which the answer is I'm not that stupid.
    What is the advantage, if any, of the schemes being collective rather than individual?
    In theory the risk is shared across more people so in theory you could invest some of the money in more riskier ventures.

    Is the post office pension scheme going to have more customers than Vanguard? Or more holdings than the 30,751 in their LifeStrategy60 fund? Clearly not, but I bet it will be a damn sight more expensive.

    We can also tailor our own risk profile individually rather than collectively which makes far more sense.
    You can, I can, probably most on here can. But plenty can't.

    I reckon it would be beyond a majority in the country.
    I assume because you are on a defined benefit pension? Those are generally better than those of us with flexibility to choose our risk profile have.

    Pension transfers are relatively simple otherwise aiui.
    I was and I had the option to take a transfer rather than an annuity. I chose not to but I do have plenty of assets I am comfortable to manage.

    However, Mrs P. for example - an intelligent, highly educated person - would not be comfortable managing her own investment portfolio and in the event of my demise would no doubt turn to an IFA to take care of it all for her.

    Then you have huge swathes of the population, not very well-educated or intelligent, who frankly wouldn't have a clue what to do to look after their pension assets.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,882
    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    Reeves urged to scrap free prescriptions for 60- to 65-year-olds

    Move could raise the Treasury more than £6bn in lead up to Budget


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/reeves-urged-scrap-free-prescriptions-60-65-year-olds/

    I didn't know they were getting them free already anyway?

    Align it to State pension age.
    That's why it was set at 60 - because that was State pension age and equal opportunity legislation meant that men had to get it at the same age that women did.
    But it's either 67 or 68 now, right?

    Haven't googled it. Seems fairer to align there.

    We can't afford these sort of nice freebies.
    If you thought the reaction to WFP was bad...

    You've gotta respect Labour for having the courage to do stuff like this. I think it's all about settling the markets ahead of increased borrowing and capital spending in the budget.
    It's not Labour :smile: (unless someone has a link?). It's the Telegraph quoting a report from the Intergenerational Federation.

    The people who consulted on this were the Johnson Government. The T are trying to scaremonger their youngest readers in the 60-66 age bracket.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/aligning-the-upper-age-for-nhs-prescription-charge-exemptions-with-the-state-pension-age

    Here's the link to the consultation report published in 2023:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/aligning-the-upper-age-for-nhs-prescription-charge-exemptions-with-the-state-pension-age/outcome/aligning-the-upper-age-for-nhs-prescription-charge-exemptions-with-the-state-pension-age-government-response

    Rishi Sunk's Govt ran away from doing it, unsurprisingly (I think June 2023 was his time on the rotatory, wasn't it?):
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/free-prescription-age-frozen-at-60

    AFAICS the numbers in the Telegraph article are standard Telegraph Turbo-Bollocks, but I'll post that separately.

    They are trying to seed fake narratives to scare Tory supporters back into line, and running flags up flagpoles to see what works. That or the writer dropped his bifocals.
    I'm getting quite fed up with the Telegraph.

    Thanks for spending the time to dig that all out.
    I think they have invented a new form of performance art called the Shit Show.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,932

    Trump Says He’s Visited Gaza, but No Record of Such a Trip Exists

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/us/politics/trump-gaza-israel.html

    “Donald J. Trump suggested in a radio interview on Monday that he had visited war-torn Gaza in the past, a place there is no record of him visiting. When asked to clarify, a campaign aide said that Gaza is “in Israel” and that Mr. Trump has visited Israel.”

    I've visited Mars because Mars is in the solar system. In fact I live there.

    ...because I live near Guildford.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832
    edited October 8
    viewcode said:

    Just dropped in The Guardian:

    Jenrick sabotaged his Tory leadership chances at conference, survey of members suggests, with Cleverly rising fast
    Conservative members were more likely to be turned off by what they saw of Robert Jenrick at the party conference than impressed, a survey suggests.

    Jenrick arrived at the conference as the clear bookmakers’ favourite. But, according to a ConservativeHome survey of Tory members, only 23% of them said that what happened at conference made them more likely to support him – and 43% said they were less likely to support him afterwards.

    Tom Tugendhat experienced a similar loss of support – but he is expected to be out of the contest by the end of today anyway as the candidate most likely to be eliminated in today’s ballot of MPs.

    Conservative members favour Kemi Badenoch for next leader, according to numerous ConHome surveys, and proper polling, but 35% of respondents said conference made them less likely to support her, while 30% said the opposite.

    The survey suggests the big winner was James Cleverly. Some 55% of Tories said conference made him a more attractive candidate, while only 14% said it didn’t.

    ------------

    NB: PB gets a mention downstream!

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/oct/08/labour-keir-starmer-tory-leadership-latest-politics-live-news?page=with:block-6704f5258f080291b5187ec5#block-6704f5258f080291b5187ec5
    From the same live thread, this tweet from the ITV deputy political editor:
    "Sorry to rant but the whole “boys club” thing irritates me. Of course there is a lot of focus on the Keir's, Morgan’s and (admittedly numerous) Matt’s but as I’ve discovered Keir Starmer would NOT be PM without the senior women in the operation"

    Call me old fashioned, but I'd rather reporters avoided the grocer's apostrophe and did use an apostrophe when appropriate :disappointed:
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,422

    If Kamala Harris wins the election and becomes President and if there isn't an election in Ireland before the inauguration next January, or Fine Gael win enough seats to remain in office, then we will have a Harris as head of Government in Ireland and as head of Government in the US.

    Have two countries ever had executive leaders with the same surname at the same time before?

    Louis I was King of Holland, while Napoleon I was Emperor of France. Both Bonapartes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Am I the only PBer that’s actually BEEN INSIDE a crack den? Because I have

    Moss Side, Manchester, about 1995

    TBH I’d be surprised if it resembled Theresa May’s apartment at Number 10. It was a derelict council flat with zero furniture and water dripping in through the ceiling and a pervasive smell of urine and dirt. There was barely any light - most of it came from the flames the users applied to the drugs. Rats skittered along the kitchen floor. And the guy who helped us score had a massive wound in his chest from a recent shot gun blast and when he got high he kept stripping off to proudly show us the atrocious scar

    I know Number 10 can be a “crazy place” but really?

    If you can remember did you get the real experience? :wink:
    I nearly died that weekend by drinking neat morphine sulphate in vitro, stored in a flagon in my friend’s fridge
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,379
    edited October 8
    Leon said:

    Am I the only PBer that’s actually BEEN INSIDE a crack den? Because I have

    Moss Side, Manchester, about 1995

    TBH I’d be surprised if it resembled Theresa May’s apartment at Number 10. It was a derelict council flat with zero furniture and water dripping in through the ceiling and a pervasive smell of urine and dirt. There was barely any light - most of it came from the flames the users applied to the drugs. Rats skittered along the kitchen floor. And the guy who helped us score had a massive wound in his chest from a recent shot gun blast and when he got high he kept stripping off to proudly show us the atrocious scar...

    Only on PB... :open_mouth:
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,521

    If Kamala Harris wins the election and becomes President and if there isn't an election in Ireland before the inauguration next January, or Fine Gael win enough seats to remain in office, then we will have a Harris as head of Government in Ireland and as head of Government in the US.

    Have two countries ever had executive leaders with the same surname at the same time before?

    There were plenty of contemporary sovereigns surnamed Hapsburg and Bourbon.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16

    It's a contribution based pension scheme - it won't have any impact on employer costs because once the money is paid into the fund by the employer that's the end of their responsibility.

    You then have the second question of would you invest in a fund that any government has control over - to which the answer is I'm not that stupid.
    What is the advantage, if any, of the schemes being collective rather than individual?
    In theory the risk is shared across more people so in theory you could invest some of the money in more riskier ventures.

    Is the post office pension scheme going to have more customers than Vanguard? Or more holdings than the 30,751 in their LifeStrategy60 fund? Clearly not, but I bet it will be a damn sight more expensive.

    We can also tailor our own risk profile individually rather than collectively which makes far more sense.
    You can, I can, probably most on here can. But plenty can't.

    I reckon it would be beyond a majority in the country.
    I assume because you are on a defined benefit pension? Those are generally better than those of us with flexibility to choose our risk profile have.

    Pension transfers are relatively simple otherwise aiui.
    I was and I had the option to take a transfer rather than an annuity. I chose not to but I do have plenty of assets I am comfortable to manage.

    However, Mrs P. for example - an intelligent, highly educated person - would not be comfortable managing her own investment portfolio and in the event of my demise would no doubt turn to an IFA to take care of it all for her.

    Then you have huge swathes of the population, not very well-educated or intelligent, who frankly wouldn't have a clue what to do to look after their pension assets.
    Oh, absolutely, people don't have the financial education, but it is far from as complicated as the industry makes out. I am a big supporter of financial education both in school and for adults. We teach the wrong things.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,422
    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/08/politics/bob-woodward-book-war-joe-biden-putin-netanyahu-trump/index.html

    “ Citing a Trump aide, Woodward reports that there have been “maybe as many as seven” calls between Trump and Putin since Trump left the White House in 2021.”
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Well, what could possibly go wrong !!!!!


    Plans to broaden access to a new type of pension scheme allowing savings to be pooled have been set out by the Government.

    Collective defined contribution (CDC) pension schemes have the potential to deliver reliable returns for savers, while ensuring more predictable costs for employers, the Government said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plans-to-modernise-pensions-market-set-out-by-government/ar-AA1rSTtW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=faee51125109441d98810f62d27982f7&ei=16

    It's a contribution based pension scheme - it won't have any impact on employer costs because once the money is paid into the fund by the employer that's the end of their responsibility.

    You then have the second question of would you invest in a fund that any government has control over - to which the answer is I'm not that stupid.
    What is the advantage, if any, of the schemes being collective rather than individual?
    In theory the risk is shared across more people so in theory you could invest some of the money in more riskier ventures.

    Is the post office pension scheme going to have more customers than Vanguard? Or more holdings than the 30,751 in their LifeStrategy60 fund? Clearly not, but I bet it will be a damn sight more expensive.

    We can also tailor our own risk profile individually rather than collectively which makes far more sense.
    You can, I can, probably most on here can. But plenty can't.

    I reckon it would be beyond a majority in the country.
    I assume because you are on a defined benefit pension? Those are generally better than those of us with flexibility to choose our risk profile have.

    Pension transfers are relatively simple otherwise aiui.
    I was and I had the option to take a transfer rather than an annuity. I chose not to but I do have plenty of assets I am comfortable to manage.

    However, Mrs P. for example - an intelligent, highly educated person - would not be comfortable managing her own investment portfolio and in the event of my demise would no doubt turn to an IFA to take care of it all for her.

    Then you have huge swathes of the population, not very well-educated or intelligent, who frankly wouldn't have a clue what to do to look after their pension assets.
    Oh, absolutely, people don't have the financial education, but it is far from as complicated as the industry makes out. I am a big supporter of financial education both in school and for adults. We teach the wrong things.
    Yes, definitely. Agreed.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399
    Nigelb said:

    This stuff is blatantly unconstitutional.
    One state has no legal standing at all to comment on how another conducts its elections.

    https://www.wvlegislature.gov/Bill_Status/bills_text.cfm?billdoc=hcr203 intr.htm&yr=2024&sesstype=2X&i=203&houseorig=h&billtype=cr

    "... the State of West Virginia will not recognize an election of a candidate for President during the 2024 election cycle if the Attorney General of West Virginia or the Secretary of State of West Virginia, in consultation with the West Virginia Legislature, determine that election fraud in any state was a major reason that resulted in a candidate for President obtaining a majority in the Electoral College"..

    Are you sure the constitution would cover that eventuality?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,126

    Leon said:

    Torsten Bell‬ ‪@torstenbell.bsky.social‬
    ·
    1h
    The UK is seeing more deaths than births (ie natural population shrinkage) for the first time since the 1970s (pandemic aside obviously) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

    https://bsky.app/profile/torstenbell.bsky.social/post/3l5ygm6sy452f

    Something very odd about those figures. England saw very slightly more births than deaths. But Wales and Scotland see vastly more (in proportion) deaths than births?

    Eg in Scotland that’s 45,000 births and 65,000 deaths

    Is Scotland dying out? Or is this a data glitch
    The young move to London. And have their families in England.
    Also immigrants move to London. And have their many more children/family there.
This discussion has been closed.