The State of the Union, Week 6 – politicalbetting.com

Cookie said:

FPT:

noneoftheabove said:

TOPPING said:

noneoftheabove said:

TOPPING said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Sandpit said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Sandpit said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

This is the catastrophe looming for the UK under Labour

“One Fifth of All Millionaires To Leave Britain by 2028”

https://x.com/guidofawkes/status/1843554081672954112?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/07/britain-suffer-biggest-millionaires-exodus-globally-non-dom/

Labour are chasing away the rich 1%, who pay 30% of our entire tax take. The world has changed and people can work remotely

Labour are going to run out of money, they will have to tax more and more, driving away MORE rich people - meanwhile poor people keep arriving. We’re in a doom loop

While there is definitely an exodus of millionaires - I know one or two who have already gone - the big risk is the brain drain of the young and ambitious.

What's left in broken britain for people other than to be pay pigs for unproductive spongers and boat people? If you're in your 20s, bright, ambitious, you can stay in broken britain and be taxed to the eyeballs while being unable to ever save money to get on the property ladder (and be cheated at every turn if you finally do), or you can bugger off to Dubai, pay 0% tax and like as not avoid the graduate tax aka student loan while you're at it.

It's not just the millionaires we'll lose over the next five years. It's the young and ambitious who can make more and pay less tax elsewhere.

It probably won't be long before Rachel Thieves puts in place exchange controls. The basic problem is that Labour does not understand wealth creation. It is a party for the public sector, hence the reason why NHS consultants and senior managers will retire with tax-free pension pots of £2.5M, while wealth generators will have any sale of a business that they have built up taxed, taxed and more taxed!

If she does anything like the IFS recommendation of setting CGT at income tax rates, the amount of capital flight will be catastrophic, as will the collapse in FDI. There would be no incentive whatsoever to invest in a UK business, and no incentive for anyone of serious means to stay in the country, when there are so many other countries doing their best to encourage capital.

Unlike @kjh who wants us to know (or is it believe) that he is in the "£3M to £10M range" (lol), I do know people who are leaving or giving it serious consideration. This is the difference between the current public sector obsessed Labour Party and Blair's New Labour, the latter of which understood and encouraged wealth creation. Lord Mandelson needs to advise them to get a grip quick before the economy becomes more and more fucked.

From my vantage point, in a small country well-known for having no personal income tax nor capital gains tax, with VAT at 5% and Corporation Tax 7%, rents are up around 30% year on year as the place is importing people faster than the many builders can keep up with demand.

Hi Sandpit. Cut and paste from my other post:

I did not say people won't leave for better jobs or a better life. However people who are rich who haven't left already (as per the topic) aren't now going to leave because of tax now.

They really really will

Why? What will they gain? I note @MarqueeMark liked, but he hasn't left.

This might be a misunderstanding. I am not saying the aspiring won't leave, and that is an issue. I'm not saying people won't leave for quality of life issues.

I'm particularly saying those who are well off who haven't left won't now because of tax. If they were they would have already done it. They might for a job or quality of life, but that would happen anyway.

As I said, taxes, schmaxes. But many rich people might get the feeling that this govt is coming for them and this is just the start.

Top tip - they could just cancel their Telegraph and Speccie subscriptions and this feeling would miraculously disappear. Much cheaper than leaving the country too.

The two most notable totemic issues for Lab over the past decade or two have been private school VAT and foxhunting.

Neither amount to a hill of beans economics (or indeed animal welfare-)wise but are red meat to the rank and file. And both are designed to make a point against a certain demographic who Lab believes are to be made to alter their beliefs with laws to back them up.

That doesn't come from the pages of the Speccie or the Telegraph.

That is such a warped view. The main concerns of the left are the NHS and education. Housing should have equal weight but doesn't. Fox hunting isn't in the top 20.

Your warped view comes from places like the Speccie and Telegraph, it is simply not real.

Pretty much the only policy announced by Labour prior to the election was the VAT on private schools. Which was not done to improve education - because even the densest can see that it won't benefit state school pupils - it was done to punish people using private schools. Because it is an issue which the left cares deeply about.
Now arguably it is a suboptimal situation to have a two-tier education system. But of all the pressing needs to address in education, this doesn't seem to be anywhere close to the top of the list. It is there because it is important to the activists.

Ditto foxhunting in 1997 (replace animal welfare for education). Though Lab came in in 1997 with rather more of a plan than Lab in 2024.

Cookie said:

FPT:

noneoftheabove said:

TOPPING said:

noneoftheabove said:

TOPPING said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Sandpit said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Sandpit said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

This is the catastrophe looming for the UK under Labour

“One Fifth of All Millionaires To Leave Britain by 2028”

https://x.com/guidofawkes/status/1843554081672954112?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/07/britain-suffer-biggest-millionaires-exodus-globally-non-dom/

Labour are chasing away the rich 1%, who pay 30% of our entire tax take. The world has changed and people can work remotely

Labour are going to run out of money, they will have to tax more and more, driving away MORE rich people - meanwhile poor people keep arriving. We’re in a doom loop

While there is definitely an exodus of millionaires - I know one or two who have already gone - the big risk is the brain drain of the young and ambitious.

What's left in broken britain for people other than to be pay pigs for unproductive spongers and boat people? If you're in your 20s, bright, ambitious, you can stay in broken britain and be taxed to the eyeballs while being unable to ever save money to get on the property ladder (and be cheated at every turn if you finally do), or you can bugger off to Dubai, pay 0% tax and like as not avoid the graduate tax aka student loan while you're at it.

It's not just the millionaires we'll lose over the next five years. It's the young and ambitious who can make more and pay less tax elsewhere.

It probably won't be long before Rachel Thieves puts in place exchange controls. The basic problem is that Labour does not understand wealth creation. It is a party for the public sector, hence the reason why NHS consultants and senior managers will retire with tax-free pension pots of £2.5M, while wealth generators will have any sale of a business that they have built up taxed, taxed and more taxed!

If she does anything like the IFS recommendation of setting CGT at income tax rates, the amount of capital flight will be catastrophic, as will the collapse in FDI. There would be no incentive whatsoever to invest in a UK business, and no incentive for anyone of serious means to stay in the country, when there are so many other countries doing their best to encourage capital.

Unlike @kjh who wants us to know (or is it believe) that he is in the "£3M to £10M range" (lol), I do know people who are leaving or giving it serious consideration. This is the difference between the current public sector obsessed Labour Party and Blair's New Labour, the latter of which understood and encouraged wealth creation. Lord Mandelson needs to advise them to get a grip quick before the economy becomes more and more fucked.

From my vantage point, in a small country well-known for having no personal income tax nor capital gains tax, with VAT at 5% and Corporation Tax 7%, rents are up around 30% year on year as the place is importing people faster than the many builders can keep up with demand.

Hi Sandpit. Cut and paste from my other post:

I did not say people won't leave for better jobs or a better life. However people who are rich who haven't left already (as per the topic) aren't now going to leave because of tax now.

They really really will

Why? What will they gain? I note @MarqueeMark liked, but he hasn't left.

This might be a misunderstanding. I am not saying the aspiring won't leave, and that is an issue. I'm not saying people won't leave for quality of life issues.

I'm particularly saying those who are well off who haven't left won't now because of tax. If they were they would have already done it. They might for a job or quality of life, but that would happen anyway.

As I said, taxes, schmaxes. But many rich people might get the feeling that this govt is coming for them and this is just the start.

Top tip - they could just cancel their Telegraph and Speccie subscriptions and this feeling would miraculously disappear. Much cheaper than leaving the country too.

The two most notable totemic issues for Lab over the past decade or two have been private school VAT and foxhunting.

Neither amount to a hill of beans economics (or indeed animal welfare-)wise but are red meat to the rank and file. And both are designed to make a point against a certain demographic who Lab believes are to be made to alter their beliefs with laws to back them up.

That doesn't come from the pages of the Speccie or the Telegraph.

That is such a warped view. The main concerns of the left are the NHS and education. Housing should have equal weight but doesn't. Fox hunting isn't in the top 20.

Your warped view comes from places like the Speccie and Telegraph, it is simply not real.

Pretty much the only policy announced by Labour prior to the election was the VAT on private schools. Which was not done to improve education - because even the densest can see that it won't benefit state school pupils - it was done to punish people using private schools. Because it is an issue which the left cares deeply about.
Now arguably it is a suboptimal situation to have a two-tier education system. But of all the pressing needs to address in education, this doesn't seem to be anywhere close to the top of the list. It is there because it is important to the activists.

Ditto foxhunting in 1997 (replace animal welfare for education). Though Lab came in in 1997 with rather more of a plan than Lab in 2024.

MarqueeMark said:

Still think that the Florida and Texas Senate races are nowhere near in the bag for the Republicans. Two really unpleasant Republicans seeking re-election.

Clearly, really unpleasant Republicans DO get re-elected. Just, maybe not this year.

MarqueeMark said:

The record of national, state and special elections since 2020 has been that the Democrats do significantly better than the polling. I will not be at all surprised if that is again the case by November 6th.

IanB2 said:

The Indy in Nebraska is certainly picking up some media traction

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Torsten Bell‬ ‪@torstenbell.bsky.social‬
·
1h
The UK is seeing more deaths than births (ie natural population shrinkage) for the first time since the 1970s (pandemic aside obviously) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

https://bsky.app/profile/torstenbell.bsky.social/post/3l5ygm6sy452f

Something very odd about those figures. England saw very slightly more births than deaths. But Wales and Scotland see vastly more (in proportion) deaths than births?

Eg in Scotland that’s 45,000 births and 65,000 deaths

Is Scotland dying out? Or is this a data glitch

Pulpstar said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Torsten Bell‬ ‪@torstenbell.bsky.social‬
·
1h
The UK is seeing more deaths than births (ie natural population shrinkage) for the first time since the 1970s (pandemic aside obviously) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

https://bsky.app/profile/torstenbell.bsky.social/post/3l5ygm6sy452f

Something very odd about those figures. England saw very slightly more births than deaths. But Wales and Scotland see vastly more (in proportion) deaths than births?

Eg in Scotland that’s 45,000 births and 65,000 deaths

Is Scotland dying out? Or is this a data glitch

Wales has an an older population profile so should see more deaths than England. Not sure about Scotland. Norn has the youngest population iirc so should see the highest birth rate.
England has a slightly more immigrant heavy population so should have slightly higher birth rates for the same age profile as the other nations, but it's not quite enough to outweigh Norn's slightly younger population *I think !

Cookie said:

FPT:

noneoftheabove said:

TOPPING said:

noneoftheabove said:

TOPPING said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Sandpit said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Sandpit said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

This is the catastrophe looming for the UK under Labour

“One Fifth of All Millionaires To Leave Britain by 2028”

https://x.com/guidofawkes/status/1843554081672954112?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/07/britain-suffer-biggest-millionaires-exodus-globally-non-dom/

Labour are chasing away the rich 1%, who pay 30% of our entire tax take. The world has changed and people can work remotely

Labour are going to run out of money, they will have to tax more and more, driving away MORE rich people - meanwhile poor people keep arriving. We’re in a doom loop

While there is definitely an exodus of millionaires - I know one or two who have already gone - the big risk is the brain drain of the young and ambitious.

What's left in broken britain for people other than to be pay pigs for unproductive spongers and boat people? If you're in your 20s, bright, ambitious, you can stay in broken britain and be taxed to the eyeballs while being unable to ever save money to get on the property ladder (and be cheated at every turn if you finally do), or you can bugger off to Dubai, pay 0% tax and like as not avoid the graduate tax aka student loan while you're at it.

It's not just the millionaires we'll lose over the next five years. It's the young and ambitious who can make more and pay less tax elsewhere.

It probably won't be long before Rachel Thieves puts in place exchange controls. The basic problem is that Labour does not understand wealth creation. It is a party for the public sector, hence the reason why NHS consultants and senior managers will retire with tax-free pension pots of £2.5M, while wealth generators will have any sale of a business that they have built up taxed, taxed and more taxed!

If she does anything like the IFS recommendation of setting CGT at income tax rates, the amount of capital flight will be catastrophic, as will the collapse in FDI. There would be no incentive whatsoever to invest in a UK business, and no incentive for anyone of serious means to stay in the country, when there are so many other countries doing their best to encourage capital.

Unlike @kjh who wants us to know (or is it believe) that he is in the "£3M to £10M range" (lol), I do know people who are leaving or giving it serious consideration. This is the difference between the current public sector obsessed Labour Party and Blair's New Labour, the latter of which understood and encouraged wealth creation. Lord Mandelson needs to advise them to get a grip quick before the economy becomes more and more fucked.

From my vantage point, in a small country well-known for having no personal income tax nor capital gains tax, with VAT at 5% and Corporation Tax 7%, rents are up around 30% year on year as the place is importing people faster than the many builders can keep up with demand.

Hi Sandpit. Cut and paste from my other post:

I did not say people won't leave for better jobs or a better life. However people who are rich who haven't left already (as per the topic) aren't now going to leave because of tax now.

They really really will

Why? What will they gain? I note @MarqueeMark liked, but he hasn't left.

This might be a misunderstanding. I am not saying the aspiring won't leave, and that is an issue. I'm not saying people won't leave for quality of life issues.

I'm particularly saying those who are well off who haven't left won't now because of tax. If they were they would have already done it. They might for a job or quality of life, but that would happen anyway.

As I said, taxes, schmaxes. But many rich people might get the feeling that this govt is coming for them and this is just the start.

Top tip - they could just cancel their Telegraph and Speccie subscriptions and this feeling would miraculously disappear. Much cheaper than leaving the country too.

The two most notable totemic issues for Lab over the past decade or two have been private school VAT and foxhunting.

Neither amount to a hill of beans economics (or indeed animal welfare-)wise but are red meat to the rank and file. And both are designed to make a point against a certain demographic who Lab believes are to be made to alter their beliefs with laws to back them up.

That doesn't come from the pages of the Speccie or the Telegraph.

That is such a warped view. The main concerns of the left are the NHS and education. Housing should have equal weight but doesn't. Fox hunting isn't in the top 20.

Your warped view comes from places like the Speccie and Telegraph, it is simply not real.

Pretty much the only policy announced by Labour prior to the election was the VAT on private schools. Which was not done to improve education - because even the densest can see that it won't benefit state school pupils - it was done to punish people using private schools. Because it is an issue which the left cares deeply about.
Now arguably it is a suboptimal situation to have a two-tier education system. But of all the pressing needs to address in education, this doesn't seem to be anywhere close to the top of the list. It is there because it is important to the activists.

Ditto foxhunting in 1997 (replace animal welfare for education). Though Lab came in in 1997 with rather more of a plan than Lab in 2024.

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

The record of national, state and special elections since 2020 has been that the Democrats do significantly better than the polling. I will not be at all surprised if that is again the case by November 6th.

Of course pollsters might have adjusted for that.
No one really knows - though some are still doing the stupid, and weighting by recalled 2019 vote.

Leon said:

Pulpstar said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Torsten Bell‬ ‪@torstenbell.bsky.social‬
·
1h
The UK is seeing more deaths than births (ie natural population shrinkage) for the first time since the 1970s (pandemic aside obviously) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

https://bsky.app/profile/torstenbell.bsky.social/post/3l5ygm6sy452f

Something very odd about those figures. England saw very slightly more births than deaths. But Wales and Scotland see vastly more (in proportion) deaths than births?

Eg in Scotland that’s 45,000 births and 65,000 deaths

Is Scotland dying out? Or is this a data glitch

Wales has an an older population profile so should see more deaths than England. Not sure about Scotland. Norn has the youngest population iirc so should see the highest birth rate.
England has a slightly more immigrant heavy population so should have slightly higher birth rates for the same age profile as the other nations, but it's not quite enough to outweigh Norn's slightly younger population *I think !

That’s a massive disparity in Scotland however

45k births, 65k deaths

Almost one and a half times as many deaths as births

Cookie said:

kjh said:

@Selebian Missed your joke on the last thread. Feel an idiot .

It took me three or four reads to get!

Selebian said:

Cookie said:

kjh said:

@Selebian Missed your joke on the last thread. Feel an idiot .

It took me three or four reads to get!

I always find the best jokes are the ones that need explaining and still meet with a puzzled look for a few seconds after the explanation

LostPassword said:

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

The record of national, state and special elections since 2020 has been that the Democrats do significantly better than the polling. I will not be at all surprised if that is again the case by November 6th.

Of course pollsters might have adjusted for that.
No one really knows - though some are still doing the stupid, and weighting by recalled 2019 vote.

2019?

OldKingCole said:

Leon said:

OldKingCole said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Torsten Bell‬ ‪@torstenbell.bsky.social‬
·
1h
The UK is seeing more deaths than births (ie natural population shrinkage) for the first time since the 1970s (pandemic aside obviously) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

https://bsky.app/profile/torstenbell.bsky.social/post/3l5ygm6sy452f

Something very odd about those figures. England saw very slightly more births than deaths. But Wales and Scotland see vastly more (in proportion) deaths than births?

Eg in Scotland that’s 45,000 births and 65,000 deaths

Is Scotland dying out? Or is this a data glitch

Scotland a) has been struggling with birth rates for some time, and b) has been struggling with earlier deaths for some time (so the tipping point into natural shrinkage comes earlier).

ISTR a few years ago England's birth rate was being propped up by immigrants with more children, though I don't know if this is still true.

So without immigration the country's population would be falling/

Has anyone told Farage?

A falling population is what we need. Trouble is we also need it to be younger. Which is quite hard to achieve

We should have let Covid take out all the wrinklies and avoided any lockdown

Thanks. I'm not enjoying life as much as I would like, but I still like the sight and feel of sunlight, a gentle wind in the trees and a glass of good red wine!

Leon said:

Selebian said:

Cookie said:

kjh said:

@Selebian Missed your joke on the last thread. Feel an idiot .

It took me three or four reads to get!

I always find the best jokes are the ones that need explaining and still meet with a puzzled look for a few seconds after the explanation

Can you share the joke again? Do like a joke

noneoftheabove said:

Selebian said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Sandpit said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

This is the catastrophe looming for the UK under Labour

“One Fifth of All Millionaires To Leave Britain by 2028”

https://x.com/guidofawkes/status/1843554081672954112?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/07/britain-suffer-biggest-millionaires-exodus-globally-non-dom/

Labour are chasing away the rich 1%, who pay 30% of our entire tax take. The world has changed and people can work remotely

Labour are going to run out of money, they will have to tax more and more, driving away MORE rich people - meanwhile poor people keep arriving. We’re in a doom loop

While there is definitely an exodus of millionaires - I know one or two who have already gone - the big risk is the brain drain of the young and ambitious.

What's left in broken britain for people other than to be pay pigs for unproductive spongers and boat people? If you're in your 20s, bright, ambitious, you can stay in broken britain and be taxed to the eyeballs while being unable to ever save money to get on the property ladder (and be cheated at every turn if you finally do), or you can bugger off to Dubai, pay 0% tax and like as not avoid the graduate tax aka student loan while you're at it.

It's not just the millionaires we'll lose over the next five years. It's the young and ambitious who can make more and pay less tax elsewhere.

It probably won't be long before Rachel Thieves puts in place exchange controls. The basic problem is that Labour does not understand wealth creation. It is a party for the public sector, hence the reason why NHS consultants and senior managers will retire with tax-free pension pots of £2.5M, while wealth generators will have any sale of a business that they have built up taxed, taxed and more taxed!

If she does anything like the IFS recommendation of setting CGT at income tax rates, the amount of capital flight will be catastrophic, as will the collapse in FDI. There would be no incentive whatsoever to invest in a UK business, and no incentive for anyone of serious means to stay in the country, when there are so many other countries doing their best to encourage capital.

Unlike @kjh who wants us to know (or is it believe) that he is in the "£3M to £10M range" (lol), I do know people who are leaving or giving it serious consideration. This is the difference between the current public sector obsessed Labour Party and Blair's New Labour, the latter of which understood and encouraged wealth creation. Lord Mandelson needs to advise them to get a grip quick before the economy becomes more and more fucked.

Actually, kjh said "£3 - £10 million". I also know a lot of people (and am myself) in that range. After all, £3 is not a great deal of net worth

£3! thats still a fortune to many. When I was a lad we used to have to get up out of shoebox at twelve o'clock at night and lick the road clean with tongue. We had two bits of cold gravel, worked twenty-four hours a day at mill for sixpence every four years, and when we got home our Dad would slice us in two with a bread knife.

kjh said:

Nigelb said:

LostPassword said:

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

The record of national, state and special elections since 2020 has been that the Democrats do significantly better than the polling. I will not be at all surprised if that is again the case by November 6th.

Of course pollsters might have adjusted for that.
No one really knows - though some are still doing the stupid, and weighting by recalled 2019 vote.

2019?

Did I do that ?

"Multitasking"....

Excellent, we can move from autocorrect to multitasking for excuses now and that covers a whole lot of extra cockups. I'm going to find it very useful.

Pulpstar said:

Some "tired" fielding going on from England here.

OldKingCole said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Torsten Bell‬ ‪@torstenbell.bsky.social‬
·
1h
The UK is seeing more deaths than births (ie natural population shrinkage) for the first time since the 1970s (pandemic aside obviously) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

https://bsky.app/profile/torstenbell.bsky.social/post/3l5ygm6sy452f

Something very odd about those figures. England saw very slightly more births than deaths. But Wales and Scotland see vastly more (in proportion) deaths than births?

Eg in Scotland that’s 45,000 births and 65,000 deaths

Is Scotland dying out? Or is this a data glitch

Scotland a) has been struggling with birth rates for some time, and b) has been struggling with earlier deaths for some time (so the tipping point into natural shrinkage comes earlier).

ISTR a few years ago England's birth rate was being propped up by immigrants with more children, though I don't know if this is still true.

So without immigration the country's population would be falling/

Has anyone told Farage?

Cookie said:

kjh said:

Nigelb said:

LostPassword said:

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

The record of national, state and special elections since 2020 has been that the Democrats do significantly better than the polling. I will not be at all surprised if that is again the case by November 6th.

Of course pollsters might have adjusted for that.
No one really knows - though some are still doing the stupid, and weighting by recalled 2019 vote.

2019?

Did I do that ?

"Multitasking"....

Excellent, we can move from autocorrect to multitasking for excuses now and that covers a whole lot of extra cockups. I'm going to find it very useful.

I was amused once online meetings started in earnest that the term 'sorry, I was multitasking' was a perfectly acceptable excuse for 'I had tuned out and was amusing myself in some unspecified way'.

Cookie said:

Leon said:

Selebian said:

Cookie said:

kjh said:

@Selebian Missed your joke on the last thread. Feel an idiot .

It took me three or four reads to get!

I always find the best jokes are the ones that need explaining and still meet with a puzzled look for a few seconds after the explanation

Can you share the joke again? Do like a joke

This was it. Kudos to @noneoftheabove for explaining the joke in a way which didn't kill it stone dead.

noneoftheabove said:

Selebian said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Sandpit said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

This is the catastrophe looming for the UK under Labour

“One Fifth of All Millionaires To Leave Britain by 2028”

https://x.com/guidofawkes/status/1843554081672954112?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/07/britain-suffer-biggest-millionaires-exodus-globally-non-dom/

Labour are chasing away the rich 1%, who pay 30% of our entire tax take. The world has changed and people can work remotely

Labour are going to run out of money, they will have to tax more and more, driving away MORE rich people - meanwhile poor people keep arriving. We’re in a doom loop

While there is definitely an exodus of millionaires - I know one or two who have already gone - the big risk is the brain drain of the young and ambitious.

What's left in broken britain for people other than to be pay pigs for unproductive spongers and boat people? If you're in your 20s, bright, ambitious, you can stay in broken britain and be taxed to the eyeballs while being unable to ever save money to get on the property ladder (and be cheated at every turn if you finally do), or you can bugger off to Dubai, pay 0% tax and like as not avoid the graduate tax aka student loan while you're at it.

It's not just the millionaires we'll lose over the next five years. It's the young and ambitious who can make more and pay less tax elsewhere.

It probably won't be long before Rachel Thieves puts in place exchange controls. The basic problem is that Labour does not understand wealth creation. It is a party for the public sector, hence the reason why NHS consultants and senior managers will retire with tax-free pension pots of £2.5M, while wealth generators will have any sale of a business that they have built up taxed, taxed and more taxed!

If she does anything like the IFS recommendation of setting CGT at income tax rates, the amount of capital flight will be catastrophic, as will the collapse in FDI. There would be no incentive whatsoever to invest in a UK business, and no incentive for anyone of serious means to stay in the country, when there are so many other countries doing their best to encourage capital.

Unlike @kjh who wants us to know (or is it believe) that he is in the "£3M to £10M range" (lol), I do know people who are leaving or giving it serious consideration. This is the difference between the current public sector obsessed Labour Party and Blair's New Labour, the latter of which understood and encouraged wealth creation. Lord Mandelson needs to advise them to get a grip quick before the economy becomes more and more fucked.

Actually, kjh said "£3 - £10 million". I also know a lot of people (and am myself) in that range. After all, £3 is not a great deal of net worth

£3! thats still a fortune to many. When I was a lad we used to have to get up out of shoebox at twelve o'clock at night and lick the road clean with tongue. We had two bits of cold gravel, worked twenty-four hours a day at mill for sixpence every four years, and when we got home our Dad would slice us in two with a bread knife.

Cookie said:

OldKingCole said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Torsten Bell‬ ‪@torstenbell.bsky.social‬
·
1h
The UK is seeing more deaths than births (ie natural population shrinkage) for the first time since the 1970s (pandemic aside obviously) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

https://bsky.app/profile/torstenbell.bsky.social/post/3l5ygm6sy452f

Something very odd about those figures. England saw very slightly more births than deaths. But Wales and Scotland see vastly more (in proportion) deaths than births?

Eg in Scotland that’s 45,000 births and 65,000 deaths

Is Scotland dying out? Or is this a data glitch

Scotland a) has been struggling with birth rates for some time, and b) has been struggling with earlier deaths for some time (so the tipping point into natural shrinkage comes earlier).

ISTR a few years ago England's birth rate was being propped up by immigrants with more children, though I don't know if this is still true.

So without immigration the country's population would be falling/

Has anyone told Farage?

Well yes. But there is a happy middle ground between a falling population due to no immigration and a population increasing at its fastest rate on record - despite a sub-2 and falling birth rate - due to massive immigration. Both extremes come with considerable problems, but we're so far away from being able to control immigration that the former isn't really a problem we have to consider.

JosiasJessop said:

Selebian said:

So anyway my kids' school is running a trip for one of the years to a local mosque (they've been studying Islam in RE recently; it's a CofE school). The year in question is still in the free school meals age group, so the school is offering pack-ups, with sandwiches of cheese, tuna or ham.

I assume these will not be eaten on the mosque's premises, but still strikes me as a bit of an 'interesting' choice for the day trip!

A couple of years ago my son went on a school trip to Bhaktivedanta Manor. We had to provide a packed lunch, and it was made clear that this would be eaten on the bus.

He really enjoyed the trip; his first significant contact with Hinduism.

i think such trips should be encouraged, to all religions.

Selebian said:

So anyway my kids' school is running a trip for one of the years to a local mosque (they've been studying Islam in RE recently; it's a CofE school). The year in question is still in the free school meals age group, so the school is offering pack-ups, with sandwiches of cheese, tuna or ham.

I assume these will not be eaten on the mosque's premises, but still strikes me as a
bit of an 'interesting' choice for the day trip!

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Big Dom on Chagos

“All credit to Starmer, finally an appointment that makes sense - if the goal is *give away British territory because your human rights lawyer mates say 'there's no alternative'*, then makes sense to hire the expert on surrendering to the IRA.

This came to my desk in No10. I said: tell the FO and Cabinet Office lawyers to fuck off, no way, no discussion.

Boris in 2021 like on everything backtracked and started this surrender. Cleverley took dictation like the perfect NPC-minister...

*The system is working as intended* - and the logical thing for the system to do is put Powell in as NSA, institutionalise *surrender to international lawyers* & bring clarity across the deep state.”

https://x.com/dominic2306/status/1843601671701598403?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

He sounds deranged.

eek said:

LostPassword said:

A seven month delay to make a decision?

I think of myself as quite indecisive, but I think I'd blush at that timescale.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/08/lower-thames-crossing-decision-delayed-tunnel

I think it ties in with when the spending review finishes - which is supposedly Spring 2025
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fixing-the-foundations-public-spending-audit-2024-25/fixing-the-foundations-public-spending-audit-2024-25-html

So we now have a date of early May for when the spending review will be finished..

Cookie said:

Selebian said:

Cookie said:

kjh said:

Nigelb said:

LostPassword said:

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

The record of national, state and special elections since 2020 has been that the Democrats do significantly better than the polling. I will not be at all surprised if that is again the case by November 6th.

Of course pollsters might have adjusted for that.
No one really knows - though some are still doing the stupid, and weighting by recalled 2019 vote.

2019?

Did I do that ?

"Multitasking"....

Excellent, we can move from autocorrect to multitasking for excuses now and that covers a whole lot of extra cockups. I'm going to find it very useful.

I was amused once online meetings started in earnest that the term 'sorry, I was multitasking' was a perfectly acceptable excuse for 'I had tuned out and was amusing myself in some unspecified way'.

If some sources are to be believed then in a few years we'll be able to say, in the follow-up meeting, "I didn't commit to doing that! The AI avatar that I sent to that meeting may have done."

Humans jobs will no longer be about actually doing anything, but about making vague excuses for what the AI did.
Arguably we are halfway there already.

Stark_Dawning said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Big Dom on Chagos

“All credit to Starmer, finally an appointment that makes sense - if the goal is *give away British territory because your human rights lawyer mates say 'there's no alternative'*, then makes sense to hire the expert on surrendering to the IRA.

This came to my desk in No10. I said: tell the FO and Cabinet Office lawyers to fuck off, no way, no discussion.

Boris in 2021 like on everything backtracked and started this surrender. Cleverley took dictation like the perfect NPC-minister...

*The system is working as intended* - and the logical thing for the system to do is put Powell in as NSA, institutionalise *surrender to international lawyers* & bring clarity across the deep state.”

https://x.com/dominic2306/status/1843601671701598403?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

He sounds deranged.

I suspect he's trying to get everyone to remember who he is after barely featuring in Boris's memoirs.

bondegezou said:

Cookie said:

OldKingCole said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Torsten Bell‬ ‪@torstenbell.bsky.social‬
·
1h
The UK is seeing more deaths than births (ie natural population shrinkage) for the first time since the 1970s (pandemic aside obviously) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

https://bsky.app/profile/torstenbell.bsky.social/post/3l5ygm6sy452f

Something very odd about those figures. England saw very slightly more births than deaths. But Wales and Scotland see vastly more (in proportion) deaths than births?

Eg in Scotland that’s 45,000 births and 65,000 deaths

Is Scotland dying out? Or is this a data glitch

Scotland a) has been struggling with birth rates for some time, and b) has been struggling with earlier deaths for some time (so the tipping point into natural shrinkage comes earlier).

ISTR a few years ago England's birth rate was being propped up by immigrants with more children, though I don't know if this is still true.

So without immigration the country's population would be falling/

Has anyone told Farage?

Well yes. But there is a happy middle ground between a falling population due to no immigration and a population increasing at its fastest rate on record - despite a sub-2 and falling birth rate - due to massive immigration. Both extremes come with considerable problems, but we're so far away from being able to control immigration that the former isn't really a problem we have to consider.

I don’t think we’re “far away from being able to control immigration”. Immigration was high under the Conservatives because they chose for it to be high. Immigration under Labour is expected to drop from the last Tory figures.

Cookie said:

Selebian said:

Cookie said:

kjh said:

Nigelb said:

LostPassword said:

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

The record of national, state and special elections since 2020 has been that the Democrats do significantly better than the polling. I will not be at all surprised if that is again the case by November 6th.

Of course pollsters might have adjusted for that.
No one really knows - though some are still doing the stupid, and weighting by recalled 2019 vote.

2019?

Did I do that ?

"Multitasking"....

Excellent, we can move from autocorrect to multitasking for excuses now and that covers a whole lot of extra cockups. I'm going to find it very useful.

I was amused once online meetings started in earnest that the term 'sorry, I was multitasking' was a perfectly acceptable excuse for 'I had tuned out and was amusing myself in some unspecified way'.

If some sources are to be believed then in a few years we'll be able to say, in the follow-up meeting, "I didn't commit to doing that! The AI avatar that I sent to that meeting may have done."

Humans jobs will no longer be about actually doing anything, but about making vague excuses for what the AI did.
Arguably we are halfway there already.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Reeves urged to scrap free prescriptions for 60- to 65-year-olds

Move could raise the Treasury more than £6bn in lead up to Budget

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/reeves-urged-scrap-free-prescriptions-60-65-year-olds/

Selebian said:

So anyway my kids' school is running a trip for one of the years to a local mosque (they've been studying Islam in RE recently; it's a CofE school). The year in question is still in the free school meals age group, so the school is offering pack-ups, with sandwiches of cheese, tuna or ham.

I assume these will not be eaten on the mosque's premises, but still strikes me as a bit of an 'interesting' choice for the day trip!

kinabalu said:

Snippet from the Atlantic in a piece about the phony populism of the right:

"Trump and those like him make a deal with the most resentful citizens in society: Keep us up in the penthouses, and we’ll harass your enemies on your behalf. We’ll punish the people you want punished. In the end, however, the joke is always on the voters."

I like that.

Selebian said:

JosiasJessop said:

Selebian said:

So anyway my kids' school is running a trip for one of the years to a local mosque (they've been studying Islam in RE recently; it's a CofE school). The year in question is still in the free school meals age group, so the school is offering pack-ups, with sandwiches of cheese, tuna or ham.

I assume these will not be eaten on the mosque's premises, but still strikes me as a bit of an 'interesting' choice for the day trip!

A couple of years ago my son went on a school trip to Bhaktivedanta Manor. We had to provide a packed lunch, and it was made clear that this would be eaten on the bus.

He really enjoyed the trip; his first significant contact with Hinduism.

i think such trips should be encouraged, to all religions.

Yeah, my kid's been really engaged with this and last year when they studied Hinduism and did some things for Diwali. I'd not have gone for a CofE school particularly*, but I'm happy that this one is giving well rounded education and not pushing the Christianity bit excessively (I mean, if you do, how do you do it - Muslims believe this and they're wrong! )

*The two nearest ones we liked both happened to be CofE

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Reeves urged to scrap free prescriptions for 60- to 65-year-olds

Move could raise the Treasury more than £6bn in lead up to Budget

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/reeves-urged-scrap-free-prescriptions-60-65-year-olds/

I didn't know they were getting them free already anyway?

Align it to State pension age.

Sandpit said:

Taz said:

Selebian said:

So anyway my kids' school is running a trip for one of the years to a local mosque (they've been studying Islam in RE recently; it's a CofE school). The year in question is still in the free school meals age group, so the school is offering pack-ups, with sandwiches of cheese, tuna or ham.

I assume these will not be eaten on the mosque's premises, but still strikes me as a bit of an 'interesting' choice for the day trip!

Could it be Turkey ham ?

I had Turkey bacon when on holiday in Dubai and it was ace.

You need to know where to look, if you want to find the bacon bacon.

The turkey ham might be a nice novelty when you’re on holiday, but you quickly get sick of it.