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Let’s talk about Robert Jenrick’s balls as there are betting implications – politicalbetting.com
Let’s talk about Robert Jenrick’s balls as there are betting implications – politicalbetting.com
NEW: ‘They have him by the balls’: senior Tories warn Robert Jenrick will be at mercy of ‘Braverman right’ as leader.Just 19 letters needed for a no confidence vote…https://t.co/X0DdZiatMi
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😂😂😂😂
So Labour down a bit but not polling collapse yet.
Reform doing well but polls always tend to overstate that party.
Edit also Techne, added numbers above
I suspect they are going to create merry hell whichever poor bugger comes out on top, and fifteen percent is just too low a trigger.
"You lost, get over it" is one of those phrases that only applies on some situations, it seems.
I hold out little hope.
If they are, then Labour are in deep trouble. If these polls are using a reprogrammed sausage machine to try to correct for the polling miss, much less so.
Thirty percent isn't good, but a high single figures lead is. There's potential for anyone to break free from the pack, but not much sign of it happening.
He will also have a huge advantage IDS and Hague did not in that Starmer is already far more unpopular than Blair was so as Leader of the Opposition he can exploit that. Replacing IDS with Howard of course made no difference to Tory poll ratings anyway, though Howard gained 30 odd seats in 2005 so most likely would IDS have.
From 2026 the Tories will also be fighting local elections in years they made losses before so he has a chance for gains
This is very different to the US Republicans, who never give up; the British Conservatives verbally oppose, then shrug and accept it when it happens, and say 'what can you do'. This really annoys their voters.
It's worse amongst the public school contingent. And it goes all the way back from Cameron to Heath to Macmillan to Halifax and before. What they really want is to be in public office with their brethren.
Only Thatcher and Churchill really broke the mould, and they had a lot of internal party management challenges as a result.
The Tories are no longer in office so the double-pincer movement will no longer apply, and Labour are very unpopular, so I expect the locals to reflect that.
Let's hope that this malevolent Guardian-briefing sack of shit doesn't keep their role in the shadow cabinet for very long after the new leader is elected.
I expect it's going to hard to gauge until far closer which argument is going to win.
NB - very small sample size. N = 2.
When it doesn't happen, no doubt that will be for.. reasons.
He's solid on foreign policy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_Kingdom_local_elections
The headline is more likely to be Tory losses than Lab losses as there are very few Lab seats up for grabs.
It could be a good night for the LDs, Greens and Independents though.
The county factor matters because it's where Labour are least relevant. And the Con-Lib battleground still looks very vulnerable.
Surrey. Sorry.
My sole point is that many of the seats are not in real Labour areas so the argument that Labour being unpopular and in power will swing things the Tory way probably isn't true. As I said I expect the Lib Dems and Reform to do well at the expense of the Tories...
I think it will be better for the Tories than if it had been this year, they seem to have stabilised and inch back up gradually. But it won’t be a good night for them.
The activist who triggered the fraud investigation into SNP finances claims that he has been “persecuted” by fellow nationalists and received death threats.
Independence campaigner Sean Clerkin reported concerns to police about the whereabouts of more than £600,000 of funding that had been raised for a second referendum three years ago....
...In the interview, Clerkin said he had been ostracised by some nationalists and had faced intimidation.
“All these years down the line I have been persecuted by nationalists who have persecuted me on social media and at rallies,” he said. “Threatening to do me in, threatened to take me out and I have had death threats.”
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/ive-been-persecuted-for-raising-alarm-on-snp-finances-gdqxcph3n
https://x.com/bmay/status/1842811279217442854
Time moves on and all governments start with what they inherit, good or bad, simply reversing the policies of the last government isn't sufficient reason to govern, hence Labour not reversing the 2 child benefit limit, despite falling fertility rates.
Seems a reasonable 'what if' question to me.
The Tories were in power for well over a decade; where we are us there legacy.
Labour aren't impressing at all, obviously, but few folk are just going to forget who got us here, for a while at least.
Like eek. I have don't have a clear idea if what's likely to happen at the locals.
Reform making significant advances is another possibility, for example.
And hardly something either of us is wishing for.
I understand your impulse to fight the Tory corner, but sometimes you're just needlessly confrontational.
The comment was based on the 2025 elections which is not the natural playground of Labour it really is classic Lib Dem terriority.
The other polling story which is more real and concerning is that Kamala Harris isn't measurably ahead of Donald Trump for next month's election.
🚨NEW POLLING:
📊Wales: Westminster Voting Intention
💥 Highest Reform % Recorded!
🌹 LAB: 29.0% (-8.0)
➡️ RFM: 21.0% (+4.1)
🌳 CON: 20.0% (+1.8)
🌻 PLD: 17.0% (+2.2)
🔶 LIB: 11.0% (+4.5)
Opinium
Why do low IQ posters fall for such obvious bollocks?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E_WeuKkJ2s
Only joking, it’s Saturday Night Live mocking the lot of them. They’ve got an excellent group of actors together this year, and gone to town on the makeup. Maya Rudolph as Harris is really very good.
In the last round, Bob + Kemi = 61
James + Tom + Mel = 58
Which implies that the centre-right/right lane balance is pretty close.
And also that whichever side loses a candidate in the next round will have the leading candidate in the final MP stage.
Badenoch dropping out will boost Jenrick overall, eliminating Tugendhat/Cleverly should push the other into the lead.
And then the membership are likely to vote for the more right wing candidate unless they do something dumb.
I reckon it's the leather and the truncheons.
The modellers are noting the likelihood (if their models actually reflect reality) of some surprises.
Note the two alternatives are somewhat inversely correlated.
Our forecasts are stable. So it might surprise you to hear that it's arguably more likely than not that something "weird" happens.
Harris' odds of winning one of Texas or Florida? 31%.
Trump's odds of winning one of New Hampshire or Minnesota? 24%.
https://x.com/lxeagle17/status/1842604877366853983
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/06/ron-desantis-backs-kemi-badenoch-for-tory-leader/
She should be spending her time and effort courting (and counting!) the MPs and members who actually have a vote.
And believe me I can point to a lot of families around here who previously had children to avoid working...
Although it looks like a single process, it's really two happening at once. The right are choosing a candidate to send to the membership and the centre-right are choosing another. There's a bit of slosh between the lanes, but not much. Neither side has enough votes to lock the other one out completely.
In round two, Badenoch and Jenrick were both a bit flattered, because there were two "right" candidates and three "centre-right" candidates. The next round has two of each, which should give us a more honest reflection. The final MP round will have two of one and one of the other, which could play merry hell with the interpretation.
It really is a very odd system when you unpick it.
I suspect he's more shameless than she was, and the membership more careless than in 2016, so it would have to be something really awful.
Indeed the conservatives won a seat off labour in Rhyl of all places recently
However, unlike Westminster Labour, Wales Labour face Senedd elections in little over 18 months (May 26) and that will be a very interesting result
The Tories are in a tactical quandary and face being outflanked on their right. It makes complete sense to me, tactically, to try and deal with that.
We also don’t quite know where the centre ground is going to be in 5 years time.
I get that a lot of people on here yearn for a sensible, early-Cameroon managerial competent centrist Tory Party. That kind of party most closely matches my views too. But the political landscape has changed dramatically since the late 00s, and it’s not a given that that brand of conservatism is the way to win anymore.
Totally brainless
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/06/reeves-urged-to-raid-wealthy-who-flee-britain-as-they-leave/
They'll just leave quicker and nobody with money will come here.
And (I think particularly, though not exclusively on the right) they're happy to spread it around.
Do a quick google search if you think this sort of story is unusual.
‘Toxic’ Trump-linked donors pour millions into Tory think tanks
https://democracyforsale.substack.com/p/toxic-trump-linked-donors-millions-tufton-street
I was multitasking. I’m about to hire a car and drive around Kosovo - I’m not sure anyone has ever done that
The Tories did well last time and these seats aren't vulnerable to Lab but the LDs who are on a high in half of Surrey and have won the Boroughs in these County seats
The Tories losing control of Surrey is in my mind a certainty. There is an outside chance the LDs might take control, although that would be a challenge and never done before.
Yet you'll vote for them every single time.
Why?
The first group are with Reform, the second with the Cons, and the third split between the Cons, homeless, and perhaps the LDs.
There is no way that these groups can coexist so the Cons are fucked.
The first group are with Reform, the second with the Cons, and the third split between the Cons, homeless, and perhaps the LDs.
There is no way that these groups can coexist.
So the Cons are fucked.
Doesn't it consist of Braverman and her own ego ?
Impressively clear video:
https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1842498480335368603
In 2022 it was 30: 35, so I’d expect significant Labour losses.
As one veteran Tory MP told the Spectator: 'we'll have to do it all again in two years time'.
I can say that car hire is insanely cheap. £22 for a nice car for a day
So they are definitely competing for what little custom there is
2026 will be London local elections and given we're more than 18 months away it's very hard to predict what's going to happen.
Conservative recovery? Possibly but I'd be looking at the Greens to make gains at the expense of Labour and I've no clue as to what the salience of the Gaza situation will be by then. It's possible we could see some form of tacit electoral agreement between some of the anti-Labour groups but hard to see how that would manifest.
The LDs only have capacity for limited advances in perhaps Merton and Bromley.
Reform are perhaps the hardest to quantify - considerable divergence of strength and weakness across the capital. Havering and perhaps Bexley could be good areas for them but they are very weak in inner and south west suburban London. A lot will depend on their development at local level.
James Cleverly likely to become favourite/joint favourite at least
Leads Jenrick by 54-36 after a 16 point swing from 37-51 with ConHome member survey from conference
Badenoch top with members. She leads Cleverly 48-42 and Jenrick 53-33. Likely to go out third place with MPs
https://x.com/sundersays/status/1842850298718568494
Frankly everything is up in the air and maybe Jenrick if elected will move the dial towards reform and whilst he is not my cup of tea we simply cannot tell at this moment what will happen
I would expect by the year end we may have a better idea, but we must not forget the Middle East has the potential for a catastrophic war with unknown and unforeseen political and economic consequences
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1842521933599883414
Oh, and the pictures of the wreckage show it to be anything but stealthy, unless riveted sheet metal now meets that description!
This is the fallacy of Leon's 'I want Reform to replace the Conservatives'.
Reform are not interested in being in government.
Was simultaneously redditing, hiring a car in Kosovo, reading a fascinating spectator piece about podcasts, and posting on here. As explained
Removing the limit significantly benefits younger, single parents who tend to be those with kids who have the most difficulties with education, crime etc etc.
I understand why people argue against it on a fairness principle (and I don't disagree), but I think the pros massively outweigh the cons, particularly in the long term. I don't think it would materially affect fertility rates; if you're in this kind of poverty, having another child is never going to be rational. But people do.
As the Observer notes, the next Tory leader, especially if it is Jenrick, is probably only 50/50 to make the next GE anyway.
Sir Keir will be pretty happy. The PB Tories might be spitting, but who really cares about those hilarious losers?
Sanction that and we can cross any red line we choose.
Farage senses a real opportunity - that is clear. He is now in his 60s. This is his last big gig, and he’s going to give it his all - is my sense
Yes yes he doesn’t go to Clacton. That is irrelevant. He’s a major party leader and one of the biggest figures in British politics
It is not this meme you use of PB Tories, but ordinary people across this land who are dismayed as Starmer's approval ratings disappears below Sunak
Not only did it completely destroy the silo from which it was supposed to be launched, it also took out pretty much every structure in the entire facility.
https://x.com/euromaidanpress/status/1837832473016664352
I know it’s not a risk worth taking, but there’s a pretty good chance that any Russian attempt to launch a big bucket of sunshine doesn’t quite go according to plan. Most of the equipment is very old.
The party has taken 412 seats giving it a majority of 174.
It was 174 but Rosie’s defection makes it 172.