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Who will flower in Scotland in 2026? – politicalbetting.com

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  • You'd want a plan to quickly get as close to self-sufficiency as possible, and then ideally something relatively light that was valuable enough to send back in trade. Perhaps Martian gemstones?
    That's the 'collect underpants' question for Martian habitation. Why is it worth the vast cost and risk? Lunar habitation makes much more sense than Martian IMO.

    (Habitation is different from exploration, which I can thoroughly see a reason for.)
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,927
    Cookie said:

    On the Tory leadership - it's all gone a bit quiet of late. This article, which doesn't appear to be paywalled, seems a reasonably good summary of where we're up to:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/whos-on-top-in-the-tory-leadership-contest/

    I've eventually resigned myself to a Jenrick victory, only to spot a route to victory for Kemi: if Kemi really is, and remains, the members' choice, then Jenrick-sceptic MP supporters of Tugendhat or Cleverly might, once their candidate is knocked out, decide to switch to Kemi in order to get her to the final two as the only way of avoiding a Jenrick leadership.
    This relies on the assumption that MPs assume that the order of preference for the members is Kemi-Jenrick-Cleverly/Tom Tug, and that it will remain such up until the last round.

    I am coming to the view that Cleverly would be the best bet for the Tories. Was impressed by Ruth Davidson's reasoning which she expounded on Ben Houchen's podcast. He can unite the party and is, personally, an antidote to the fractious, ungenerous nature of politics at the moment. Would appeal to the voting public. He won't win though, sadly.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,882
    edited September 2024

    Read her declaration before you comment further.
    I read it on twitter last night. The sort of clarity that is welcome really. She has clearly done nothing wrong.

    I do get the impression that the story is running out of steam as the excess troughing stuff, which has clearly gone on, is now being replaced with stuff that is anything but.

    A proper public interest story has been replaced with clickbait.
  • Nigelb said:

    Anyone get the impression that U.S. pollsters are deliberately clustering in Pennsylvania ?

    So, we got 4 Pennsylvania polls today:

    Monmouth: Harris 47/45 [sort of, it's not a direct H2H]
    Susquehanna: tied 46/46
    Mulhenberg: tied 48/48
    RMG Research: tied 49/49

    https://x.com/Taniel/status/1839017204370780532

    The key swing state, and they're (possibly) trying to avoid making a call.

    Or maybe it is that close, and they all have near identical methodologies....

    I have noticed that the polls in PA seem to move a lot less than the national polls, with the exception of the NYT/Siena poll that had 50-46 a week or so ago.

    It's possible that the saturation of campaigning in the state means that there are fewer undecided voters than elsewhere.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430

    I hate the terms bribery and the racist word blackmail.

    I prefer the term incentive based decision making.
    Saying blackmail is a racist word is, itself bigoted.

    It refers to a traditional form of Local Ethnic Community Organised tax collection. Organised by the recognised community leaders of a minority. The minority in question being the Legally Challenged Community.

    So being judgemental about it is Punching Down.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,296
    edited September 2024

    That's the 'collect underpants' question for Martian habitation. Why is it worth the vast cost and risk? Lunar habitation makes much more sense than Martian IMO.

    (Habitation is different from exploration, which I can thoroughly see a reason for.)
    If you can do the Moon then you're close to being able to do Phobos/Deimos and then the Martian surface likely becomes much easier.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,952

    She will need to hope the markets don't react adversely
    She will need to explain it and not truss it.
  • Taz said:

    I read it on twitter last night. The sort of clarity that is welcome really. She has clearly done nothing wrong.
    In all the stories at present I do not see any wrong doing in this one

    Many families struggle with probate, not least as it takes upto a year and in that time access to the estate money is restricted

    Seems perfectly sensible
  • Barnesian said:

    She will need to explain it and not truss it.
    Very good
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,681

    Read her declaration before you comment further.
    Being helpful, you can read it here. She has also addressed various other questions.

    https://x.com/Siobhain_Mc/status/1838952867660484795
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164

    That's the 'collect underpants' question for Martian habitation. Why is it worth the vast cost and risk? Lunar habitation makes much more sense than Martian IMO.

    (Habitation is different from exploration, which I can thoroughly see a reason for.)
    Gravity ?
    The Moon isn't really a very healthy environment for permanent habitation.

    Also, long term, competition for resources. There's a big first mover advantage for the first ones to figure out full self-sufficiency on Mars.
    Though that's likely a generation away at least.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,074
    sarissa said:

    TSE should try being a Heart of Midlothian fan...
    Is that not 'cruel and unusual' ?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    Foss said:

    If you can do the Moon then you're close to being able to do Phobos/Deimos and then the Martian surface likely becomes much easier.
    A big question is how much gravity is required to eliminate negative biological effects.

    The institutional bias against research into this, by NASA, is a classic example of a few key individuals blocking technology/research because of personal prejudices and beliefs.
  • She will need to hope the markets don't react adversely
    Hence letting the OBR do their thing.

    Besides, the vibes from the gnomes in Zurich (remember them?) is that they'll be OK with borrowing to spend on tangible things (the sort that gave been cut since 2010) rather than tax cuts.

    Look, I know it hurts when you don't get the government you wanted. Heck, I never even voted for Blair. And there are definitely things to criticise Starmer for.

    But is this continual drip drip of negativity what you want to be known for?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,136
    Come on, any investment decisions within the last year were clearly based on the certainty of an incoming Labour government :wink:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,646
    edited September 2024

    I am coming to the view that Cleverly would be the best bet for the Tories. Was impressed by Ruth Davidson's reasoning which she expounded on Ben Houchen's podcast. He can unite the party and is, personally, an antidote to the fractious, ungenerous nature of politics at the moment. Would appeal to the voting public. He won't win though, sadly.
    Yeh, he would definitely be a better choice for them than Jenrick. A much more solid and experienced LOTO figure who could claw back some ground.

    Sadly, the members seem determined to have Badenoch or Jenrick.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164

    I have noticed that the polls in PA seem to move a lot less than the national polls, with the exception of the NYT/Siena poll that had 50-46 a week or so ago.

    It's possible that the saturation of campaigning in the state means that there are fewer undecided voters than elsewhere.
    Given the inherent uncertainties in US presidential polling, it just seems odd that they're all landing on the same split.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,972
    Nate Silver now has Harris at a 55.2% chance of winning the Presidency, Trump down at 44.6%
  • Read her declaration before you comment further.
    I have read it. Lord Alli lends £1.2M interest free to MP to buy a house. The money will be repaid when the sale of the 'other' house they (her and her sister) own is sold.

    All very nice and sympathetic. However, can you not see how the MP has and is going to benefit financially from this, massively.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    Nigelb said:

    Given the inherent uncertainties in US presidential polling, it just seems odd that they're all landing on the same split.
    The phenomenon of poll herding has been noticed in the past….
  • Saying blackmail is a racist word is, itself bigoted.

    It refers to a traditional form of Local Ethnic Community Organised tax collection. Organised by the recognised community leaders of a minority. The minority in question being the Legally Challenged Community.

    So being judgemental about it is Punching Down.
    Used to work for an organization where the "ethics and bribery" online training required you to be able to distinguish between an unacceptable gift and an acceptable "facilitating payment required to conduct business".

    Hilariously, a few years later, a recipient of a "facilitating payment" pleaded in mitigation in court that 90% went back to the person in the organization who'd approved it.
  • That's the 'collect underpants' question for Martian habitation. Why is it worth the vast cost and risk? Lunar habitation makes much more sense than Martian IMO.

    (Habitation is different from exploration, which I can thoroughly see a reason for.)
    I'm very convinced by the argument that it's easier to live on Mars than on the Moon. And it's not that much harder to get to Mars than the Moon in terms of the delta-v required.

    And, ultimately, it's possible to imagine an entirely self-sustaining settlement on Mars, which would be much harder, if not impossible, to achieve on the Moon.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Is that not 'cruel and unusual' ?
    That would be a night out in Wick.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    edited September 2024
    Selebian said:

    Come on, any investment decisions within the last year were clearly based on the certainty of an incoming Labour government :wink:
    1) Starmer is a lawyer and therefore always correct.
    2) He has referred to Sunak as the PM, since the election. More than once.
    3) Therefore Sunak is PM

    It all becomes clear. Sunak despaired of the Conservative Party, and using Lord Ali, conducted an internal takeover of the Labour Party. Which is now the vehicle for his genius.
  • I am coming to the view that Cleverly would be the best bet for the Tories. Was impressed by Ruth Davidson's reasoning which she expounded on Ben Houchen's podcast. He can unite the party and is, personally, an antidote to the fractious, ungenerous nature of politics at the moment. Would appeal to the voting public. He won't win though, sadly.
    Agreed that Cleverly has always seemed their best choice from the candidates.
    I have trading bets on him and Tugendhat, I may not trade it all in if either makes the final two against Jenrick, as I struggle to conceive that Jenrick could be preferred even by Conservative members.
  • Hence letting the OBR do their thing.

    Besides, the vibes from the gnomes in Zurich (remember them?) is that they'll be OK with borrowing to spend on tangible things (the sort that gave been cut since 2010) rather than tax cuts.

    Look, I know it hurts when you don't get the government you wanted. Heck, I never even voted for Blair. And there are definitely things to criticise Starmer for.

    But is this continual drip drip of negativity what you want to be known for?
    I think the ones being negative are the doom and gloom speeches from Starmer and Reeves and no I do not support Labour, but expected Starmer to be above all this cronyism but then that has proved wrong

    I am not hurting at all, am relieved the conservatives are out office, and am entitled to post critiques of the government mostly from Sky but try to source reports/articles from a wide number of outlets including the Guardian and non conservative supporting groups as well as Guido if it is relevant to the topic, but not inappropriate nonsense

    Of course some may be upset, but as far as I am aware this is a political forum with interest in betting so I try to be responsible and hope that in some way it contributes to discussion on the topics of the day
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,136

    I hate the terms bribery and the racist word blackmail.

    I prefer the term incentive based decision making.
    - Sir Humphrey: "Blackmail."

    - President Col. Selim Mohammed/Charles Umtali: "Are you describing me or my proposal?"

    -Jim Hacker: "Your proposal obviously. [Sir Humphrey and Jim laugh, then panic] No, no, not even your proposal."
  • I'm very convinced by the argument that it's easier to live on Mars than on the Moon. And it's not that much harder to get to Mars than the Moon in terms of the delta-v required.

    And, ultimately, it's possible to imagine an entirely self-sustaining settlement on Mars, which would be much harder, if not impossible, to achieve on the Moon.
    I'm unconvinced that it's easier to live on Mars than the Moon. TBF, we have very little clue about either.

    The Moon has several advantages. It is near, only a few days travel away, instead of many months. We know much more about it and potential resources. And transport, trade and industry will be an order, if not orders, of magnitude easier between Moon and Earth than Mars and Earth. A Lunar colony will cost much less than a Martian one for that reason alone.

    I can easily imagine an entirely self-sustaining settlement on Mars or the Moon (*). Why do you think Mars is easier?

    But in the very long term: why not both? ;)

    (*) Gestation and growth being a potentially massive issue for both...
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,069
    edited September 2024
    Foss said:

    If you can do the Moon then you're close to being able to do Phobos/Deimos and then the Martian surface likely becomes much easier.
    Given that escape velocity on Phobos is about 25 mph, that rules out playing or watching cricket - so that excludes 75%+ of PB members from staying there.
    Hmmm...Elon? Are you taking bookings?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,566
    Starmer needs to make sure he doesn't get pushed off track, spending time focusing on these non-stories... that no one will remember in five years.

    What does matter is what he and Reeves do in the budget to get the country growing again. Early signs are mixed in my view. Worrying to see cuts in investment spending. WFA shows some signs he is prepared to be unpopular for a period.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,052
    Taz said:

    Tell me about it. I have So Vile a Sin, Lungbarrow and Dying Days in Mint condition too. I also have the Missing Adventures and many of the EDA's and PDA's as well as plenty of the figures.

    I have the first DWW's with transfers.

    I also have the Big Finish Novellas.

    Just looked at EBAY. The ones I mentioned always went for good money. But it looks like the money on offer for the range as a whole is just silly.

    I have a complete set of New and Missing Adventures, and a box full of signed issue 1s of Lance Parkin's spin-off comic. Early DWWs with transfers must go for a pretty pile.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Starmer needs to make sure he doesn't get pushed off track, spending time focusing on these non-stories... that no one will remember in five years.

    What does matter is what he and Reeves do in the budget to get the country growing again. Early signs are mixed in my view. Worrying to see cuts in investment spending. WFA shows some signs he is prepared to be unpopular for a period.

    In a WhatsApp group I am in with political saddos somebody pointed Bernie Ecclestone wasn’t mentioned in the 2001 election.
  • DavidL said:

    Who knows? The British public certainly don't and Starmer is keen to keep it that way.
    Campaign spending limits were almost doubled for July's election, so they should be OK.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    Taz said:

    I'm waiting for the Good Law Project and Led By Donkeys to get onto this too.
    You’ll have a long wait for them.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,103
    edited September 2024
    MattW said:

    TBF there was Fizzy Lizzy's first 1.5 months, and Rishi Sunak's entire term spent on political efforts to backside cover for the Election, and any difficult decision, even the most basic stuff, being pushed out into 2025.

    I'm nto sure about Gordon Brown in detail, but then we are back into the 1970s and Ted Heath etc.

    ...And the piece de resistance BREXIT! Perhaps the most egregious costly and foolhardy of the lot! In fact looking back to the Johnson fiascos- not including Lulu Little -which I had no problem with onto his disastrous implementation of Brexit Owen Patterson Barnard Castle losing his Remain MPs it was surely the worst governance we've ever seen.

    Then Liz Truss (enough said) and then Rishi who employed Suella Braverman as HS (again enough said)

    I would say Sir Keir who stopped the most disgusting racist riots in my lifetime- overnight - and Theresa May are by a distance the best PMs we've had since Tony Blair.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,734
    Barnesian said:

    I hope so! As long as it is invested with a future return in excess of the interest on it, and not simply spent.
    *hollow laughter*
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,316

    I have a complete set of New and Missing Adventures, and a box full of signed issue 1s of Lance Parkin's spin-off comic. Early DWWs with transfers must go for a pretty pile.
    We are an odd bunch on PB. Many years ago I collected Dr Who videos as it was the only way to watch old episodes. I sold them years later as a job lot for lots. And now I can stream basically everything.

    But nothing beats that feeling of a new video of an episode I had only read about and seen photos of.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,734

    Nate Silver now has Harris at a 55.2% chance of winning the Presidency, Trump down at 44.6%

    So Trump wins 45 times out of 100. These are not the odds that I was looking for.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,972

    Has Starmer perhaps been using the flat as his own for months and only declared the period around the election to avoid any difficult questions around campaign spending?
    Now why would he be doing that?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    rkrkrk said:

    Starmer needs to make sure he doesn't get pushed off track, spending time focusing on these non-stories... that no one will remember in five years.

    What does matter is what he and Reeves do in the budget to get the country growing again. Early signs are mixed in my view. Worrying to see cuts in investment spending. WFA shows some signs he is prepared to be unpopular for a period.

    Echos my views.

    Happy for the PB rightists to be enjoying these non-stories though. Fill yer boots, it's going to be a long 10-15 years in the wilderness - mocking the government eases the pain, take it from me.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Will SKS lead Labour into the next GE?

    It seems absurd to even ask the Q, but SKS isn't naturally of the Labour right & doesn't have a political base in Labour - instead he's been used by the right of the party (and willingly so), and
    when they decide he needs to go, hes gone.

    Streeting or Reeves will be like vultures the first chance they get

    #Akehurst4PM
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,972

    That would be a night out in Wick.
    Once went out for a meal in Wick.

    Dull and underwhelming is a better fit.

    The things I used to do in the name of twitching...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164

    The phenomenon of poll herding has been noticed in the past….
    Yes, that's what I was suggesting.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098

    I think I need to change my avatar in light of recent events :lol:

    Indeed, you seem to have overlooked there already having been an election.
  • I'm unconvinced that it's easier to live on Mars than the Moon. TBF, we have very little clue about either.

    The Moon has several advantages. It is near, only a few days travel away, instead of many months. We know much more about it and potential resources. And transport, trade and industry will be an order, if not orders, of magnitude easier between Moon and Earth than Mars and Earth. A Lunar colony will cost much less than a Martian one for that reason alone.

    I can easily imagine an entirely self-sustaining settlement on Mars or the Moon (*). Why do you think Mars is easier?

    But in the very long term: why not both? ;)

    (*) Gestation and growth being a potentially massive issue for both...
    Mars is easier because:
    1. Higher surface gravity.
    2. Atmosphere (albeit thin and not breathable, but still, something is better than nothing).
    3. Roughly the same day length.

    The transport cost is mainly a function of delta-v, which is mostly a question of escaping the Earth's gravity well. It doesn't matter much if your supplies take nine months to travel instead of three days. And for a one-way trip the travel time doesn't matter much to your colonists either.

    The Moon is a distraction. We should head directly to Mars.

    You can backfill the Moon later.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164

    I think I need to change my avatar in light of recent events :lol:

    How about "We're all in it together" ?
    The "up to our necks" can be inferred.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,052

    Actually, no, it is a big deal

    “You know I lent you £1.2m? Well I really want you to vote X next week.”

    MPs simply should not be entering into agreements with the potential to compromise them. The sheer magnitude of the loan puts it firmly in that category.
    MPs are real people. They are sometimes going to enter into agreements with the potential to compromise them. They cannot live like abstemious hermits. The solution is to have them declare everything, so everything can be seen.

    We can all see the arrangements made between Alli, McDonagh and her sister. We can see that this was someone wealthy helping out a friend in tragic circumstances. I think it is sad that McDonagh's grief should be intruded upon by people trying to turn this into something sinister.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,882

    That would be a night out in Wick.
    With Lord Hampton ?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,927

    Once went out for a meal in Wick.

    Dull and underwhelming is a better fit.

    The things I used to do in the name of twitching...
    East coast migrant after persistent easterlies? A Sibe? What was it (if you don't mind my asking)?
  • Mars is easier because:
    1. Higher surface gravity.
    2. Atmosphere (albeit thin and not breathable, but still, something is better than nothing).
    3. Roughly the same day length.

    The transport cost is mainly a function of delta-v, which is mostly a question of escaping the Earth's gravity well. It doesn't matter much if your supplies take nine months to travel instead of three days. And for a one-way trip the travel time doesn't matter much to your colonists either.

    The Moon is a distraction. We should head directly to Mars.

    You can backfill the Moon later.
    1) 1/3 rather than 1/6. It probably will not make a vast difference.
    2) 1% of Earths is negligible for practical purposes, though useful for aerobraking.
    3) Yep, that's a fair point. Lunar days and nights are uncomfortably long.

    You could also add:
    4) Temperature variations much less on Mars.

    But you can get to and from the Moon in days, pretty much monthly. Mars takes months; six months usually, once every two years. If you are doing any trade, of there's any interdependence, than that's a massive advantage for the Moon.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,394
    edited September 2024

    I think I need to change my avatar in light of recent events :lol:

    It's bad Karma
    To vote Starmer

    Free Gear?
    Vote Keir

    First Tier?
    Vote Keir

    Vote Keir?
    No Fear!
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,726
    An age-based challenge on WFP in Scotland. Failure to consult with pensioners and not enough equalities analysis.
  • Shocked.

    Met Police officers 'accessed Sarah Everard murder files without authorisation'

    Police officers in the Met are accused of repeatedly looking at the confidential investigation files without a proper reason


    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/met-police-officers-sarah-everard-murder-files-misconduct-b1184338.html
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    I have read it. Lord Alli lends £1.2M interest free to MP to buy a house. The money will be repaid when the sale of the 'other' house they (her and her sister) own is sold.

    All very nice and sympathetic. However, can you not see how the MP has and is going to benefit financially from this, massively.
    Matter for the Metropolitan Police I believe.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,394
    edited September 2024
    Roger said:

    ...And the piece de resistance BREXIT! Perhaps the most egregious costly and foolhardy of the lot! In fact looking back to the Johnson fiascos- not including Lulu Little -which I had no problem with onto his disastrous implementation of Brexit Owen Patterson Barnard Castle losing his Remain MPs it was surely the worst governance we've ever seen.

    Then Liz Truss (enough said) and then Rishi who employed Suella Braverman as HS (again enough said)

    I would say Sir Keir who stopped the most disgusting racist riots in my lifetime- overnight - and Theresa May are by a distance the best PMs we've had since Tony Blair.
    For once I very much agree with you: Starmer is every bit as impressive a PM as Theresa May was.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,726
    edited September 2024

    Shocked.

    Met Police officers 'accessed Sarah Everard murder files without authorisation'

    Police officers in the Met are accused of repeatedly looking at the confidential investigation files without a proper reason


    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/met-police-officers-sarah-everard-murder-files-misconduct-b1184338.html

    Still think this should have been Starmer's BoE independence equivalent.

    Cleave off the Met's special responsibilities on counter-terror, diplomatic protection etc to BTP. Shake things up a bit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,734
    edited September 2024
    FWIW I think that there are some underlying trends in the US and elsewhere that are helping Trump in this election.

    Although they are growing now real wages were severely damaged both by the sequelae of Covid and the inflationary bubble that followed the invasion of Ukraine. People do not feel better off than they did 4 years ago. Many aren't.

    We had got very used to notional interest rates. Their replacement with more "normal" rates has hurt a lot of people who were somewhat ambitious on their borrowing.

    Public services seem to struggle to maintain even the same level of service for those in need.

    Harris gets boosts against that trend but ultimately the trend reasserts itself and things narrow again. So we saw a boost when the Democrats decided that the walking dead was a better TV program than an electoral strategy and she took over.

    We saw another boost when Trump doubled down on his stupidity by choosing Vance and having a pretty dismal Convention where we warbled on and on until people lost track of what he was talking about.

    She get another boost with her Convention and celebrity endorsements.

    She did well in her first sit down interview (there haven't been many more).

    She absolutely slaughtered Trump in the debate.

    Hopefully Walz will do the same to Vance on Tuesday.

    But each time those underlying trends come back. We are seeing this in the Pennsylvanian polling and elsewhere. Its bloody tough to win as an incumbent right now. We have seen that throughout the Western World. Harris needs to keep rolling back the tide. I am nervous she may run out of opportunities to do so.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,822
    This evening’s local accuweather forecast: Heavy rain and strong winds from hurricane; life-threatening flooding, mudslides, debris flows and power outages. Rainfall over next 24 hrs could reach 18 inches.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,103

    You protest too much
    I picture you sitting in front of your TV watching Sky when The Nespresso ad comes on 'Look Olwyn! Have you ever seen such a fantastic house as George Clooney's?"
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,759
    edited September 2024
    Roger said:

    I picture you sitting in front of your TV watching Sky when The Nespresso ad comes on 'Look Olwyn! Have you ever seen such a fantastic house as George Clooney's?"
    Well you would be wrong

    Neither my wife or I have any time for celebrities whatsoever or the soulless homes they live in
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,734

    Mars is easier because:
    1. Higher surface gravity.
    2. Atmosphere (albeit thin and not breathable, but still, something is better than nothing).
    3. Roughly the same day length.

    The transport cost is mainly a function of delta-v, which is mostly a question of escaping the Earth's gravity well. It doesn't matter much if your supplies take nine months to travel instead of three days. And for a one-way trip the travel time doesn't matter much to your colonists either.

    The Moon is a distraction. We should head directly to Mars.

    You can backfill the Moon later.
    But we only have until 1999 for it to be ready to take off.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430

    Matter for the Metropolitan Police I believe.
    There's a flaw in that somewhere. Can't quite put my finger on it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,890

    Will SKS lead Labour into the next GE?

    It seems absurd to even ask the Q, but SKS isn't naturally of the Labour right & doesn't have a political base in Labour - instead he's been used by the right of the party (and willingly so), and
    when they decide he needs to go, hes gone.

    Streeting or Reeves will be like vultures the first chance they get

    #Akehurst4PM

    Yvette Cooper is a possibility.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    Eabhal said:

    Still think this should have been Starmer's BoE independence equivalent.

    Cleave off the Met's special responsibilities on counter-terror, diplomatic protection etc to BTP. Shake things up a bit.
    British Transport Police?!

    The special responsibilities need to go to a new, national level force. Complete with an independent internal affairs unit to investigate them.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,405

    I think I need to change my avatar in light of recent events :lol:

    Can I suggest “Not a charmer. Keir Starmer.”
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    AnneJGP said:

    What's the non-racist term for whitewash, please?
    Paint
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,882

    Will SKS lead Labour into the next GE?

    It seems absurd to even ask the Q, but SKS isn't naturally of the Labour right & doesn't have a political base in Labour - instead he's been used by the right of the party (and willingly so), and
    when they decide he needs to go, hes gone.

    Streeting or Reeves will be like vultures the first chance they get

    #Akehurst4PM

    My MP would be PM !!!!

    That would be interesting.
  • This actually makes me feel more positive about Jenrick. From the Spectator:

    For Theresa May, it was running through fields of wheat; what’s the naughtiest thing you’ve ever done?

    CLEVERLY: It’s all on a [BBC] interview I did with John Pienaar in 2015. [Cleverly told Pienaar he had smoked cannabis at university and watched online porn.]

    JENRICK: I was actually quite naughty as a child and teenager. So a lot of the things I did probably should not enter the public domain. I’ll give you one, which, I’m afraid, is by no means the naughtiest thing I did. After a few too many drinks, as a teenager, I did accept a bet to climb the Christmas tree in Wolverhampton’s city centre. That did not end well.

    BADENOCH: I don’t care to say. It definitely is not running through fields of wheat, but I’m not going to tell you the naughtiest thing I’ve ever done.

    TUGENDHAT: I invaded a country once which was a few years ago, 2003; I was part of the invading army in Iraq.


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-the-tories-lost-by-the-tory-leadership-candidates/
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,405
    IanB2 said:

    This evening’s local accuweather forecast: Heavy rain and strong winds from hurricane; life-threatening flooding, mudslides, debris flows and power outages. Rainfall over next 24 hrs could reach 18 inches.

    I hadn’t realised you’d returned home.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,103
    Fishing said:

    It's bad Karma
    To vote Starmer

    Free Gear?
    Vote Keir

    First Tier?
    Vote Keir

    Vote Keir?
    No Fear!
    No fags
    No beer
    Vote Keir
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,734

    This actually makes me feel more positive about Jenrick. From the Spectator:

    For Theresa May, it was running through fields of wheat; what’s the naughtiest thing you’ve ever done?

    CLEVERLY: It’s all on a [BBC] interview I did with John Pienaar in 2015. [Cleverly told Pienaar he had smoked cannabis at university and watched online porn.]

    JENRICK: I was actually quite naughty as a child and teenager. So a lot of the things I did probably should not enter the public domain. I’ll give you one, which, I’m afraid, is by no means the naughtiest thing I did. After a few too many drinks, as a teenager, I did accept a bet to climb the Christmas tree in Wolverhampton’s city centre. That did not end well.

    BADENOCH: I don’t care to say. It definitely is not running through fields of wheat, but I’m not going to tell you the naughtiest thing I’ve ever done.

    TUGENDHAT: I invaded a country once which was a few years ago, 2003; I was part of the invading army in Iraq.


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-the-tories-lost-by-the-tory-leadership-candidates/

    It makes me feel more positive about Tugendhat.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,822
    edited September 2024

    This actually makes me feel more positive about Jenrick. From the Spectator:

    For Theresa May, it was running through fields of wheat; what’s the naughtiest thing you’ve ever done?

    CLEVERLY: It’s all on a [BBC] interview I did with John Pienaar in 2015. [Cleverly told Pienaar he had smoked cannabis at university and watched online porn.]

    JENRICK: I was actually quite naughty as a child and teenager. So a lot of the things I did probably should not enter the public domain. I’ll give you one, which, I’m afraid, is by no means the naughtiest thing I did. After a few too many drinks, as a teenager, I did accept a bet to climb the Christmas tree in Wolverhampton’s city centre. That did not end well.

    BADENOCH: I don’t care to say. It definitely is not running through fields of wheat, but I’m not going to tell you the naughtiest thing I’ve ever done.

    TUGENDHAT: I invaded a country once which was a few years ago, 2003; I was part of the invading army in Iraq.


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-the-tories-lost-by-the-tory-leadership-candidates/

    Trouble is, Jenrick is still quite naughty.
  • I hadn’t realised you’d returned home.
    Why the fuck do people live in Florida? Too hot in summer, unspeakable storms in winter
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,421

    This actually makes me feel more positive about Jenrick. From the Spectator:

    For Theresa May, it was running through fields of wheat; what’s the naughtiest thing you’ve ever done?

    CLEVERLY: It’s all on a [BBC] interview I did with John Pienaar in 2015. [Cleverly told Pienaar he had smoked cannabis at university and watched online porn.]

    JENRICK: I was actually quite naughty as a child and teenager. So a lot of the things I did probably should not enter the public domain. I’ll give you one, which, I’m afraid, is by no means the naughtiest thing I did. After a few too many drinks, as a teenager, I did accept a bet to climb the Christmas tree in Wolverhampton’s city centre. That did not end well.

    BADENOCH: I don’t care to say. It definitely is not running through fields of wheat, but I’m not going to tell you the naughtiest thing I’ve ever done.

    TUGENDHAT: I invaded a country once which was a few years ago, 2003; I was part of the invading army in Iraq.


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-the-tories-lost-by-the-tory-leadership-candidates/

    I agree. Pranks and high jinks are the good kind of naughtiness. Not enough of that sort of thing these days, or at least it seems not.

    You're a school teacher: do pupils still engage in pranks and dares, or is their naughtiness just expressed as sullen backchat and ignoring the teacher?
  • MPs are real people. They are sometimes going to enter into agreements with the potential to compromise them. They cannot live like abstemious hermits. The solution is to have them declare everything, so
    everything can be seen.

    We can all see the arrangements made
    between Alli, McDonagh and her sister. We
    can see that this was someone wealthy
    helping out a friend in tragic circumstances.
    I think it is sad that McDonagh's grief
    should be intruded upon by people trying to
    turn this into something sinister.
    There is a gap between “hermits” and a £1.2m loan.

    The position of MP is one of huge responsibility. And with that comes consequences.

    One of those consequences is that you don’t get to do everything you might like to.


  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    DavidL said:

    It makes me feel more positive about Tugendhat.
    I had no idea he was in the army.
  • Eabhal said:

    Still think this should have been Starmer's BoE independence equivalent.

    Cleave off the Met's special responsibilities on counter-terror, diplomatic protection etc to BTP. Shake things up a bit.
    British Transport Police? You're aving a larf.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,421
    edited September 2024

    Why the fuck do people live in Florida? Too hot in summer, unspeakable storms in winter
    And Trump as a neighbour.

    I did once visit Miami beach for a work do, the only time I've ever set foot in the state, and that was quite fun. The Fontainebleau hotel or "fountain blue" as they call it.
  • DavidL said:

    It makes me feel more positive about Tugendhat.
    True, it's an elegant answer. But Jenrick's is human, whereas Badenoch's shows that she doesn't really get how hard it is for opposition politicians to get attention. You have to say something.
  • DavidL said:

    FWIW I think that there are some underlying trends in the US and elsewhere that are helping Trump in this election.

    Although they are growing now real wages were severely damaged both by the sequelae of Covid and the inflationary bubble that followed the invasion of Ukraine. People do not feel better off than they did 4 years ago. Many aren't.

    We had got very used to notional interest rates. Their replacement with more "normal" rates has hurt a lot of people who were somewhat ambitious on their borrowing.

    Public services seem to struggle to maintain even the same level of service for those in need.

    Harris gets boosts against that trend but ultimately the trend reasserts itself and things narrow again. So we saw a boost when the Democrats decided that the walking dead was a better TV program than an electoral strategy and she took over.

    We saw another boost when Trump doubled down on his stupidity by choosing Vance and having a pretty dismal Convention where we warbled on and on until people lost track of what he was talking about.

    She get another boost with her Convention and celebrity endorsements.

    She did well in her first sit down interview (there haven't been many more).

    She absolutely slaughtered Trump in the debate.

    Hopefully Walz will do the same to Vance on Tuesday.

    But each time those underlying trends come back. We are seeing this in the Pennsylvanian polling and elsewhere. Its bloody tough to win as an incumbent right now. We have seen that throughout the Western World. Harris needs to keep rolling back the tide. I am nervous she may run out of opportunities to do so.

    Take a look at Harris' latest MSNBC interview. Even MSNBC is saying she dodged the questions.

    She is a fundamentally poor candidate.

    Agree re the trends helping Trump. Look at the Gallup polling on which party is best trusted to sort voters' priorities.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,734
    maaarsh said:

    I had no idea he was in the army.
    Some things are best kept secret. Like Starmer's dad's occupation.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,822
    Pertinent, from Freedman:

    Labour are struggling for a number of reasons, most of which were predictable. They have inherited the pilot’s seat of a plane on fire and pointing downwards. Any incoming administration would be struggling with the controls.

    It didn’t help that they came in unsure of where they want to land.

    Plus the absence of any spending plans for next year (a wildly irresponsible bit of politics from the Tories) was always going to slow things down while the Treasury ran a spending review. Anything that requires money is on hold until that is resolved, leaving Labour’s conference this week feeling policy-lite.

    Of course, Labour made this harder for themselves by refusing to acknowledge fiscal reality during the campaign. Though Rachel Reeves is now strongly hinting that she will amend the fiscal rules to at least allow for more infrastructure spending.

    On top of these predictable problems they are making life harder for themselves due to No. 10 being even more of a shambles than usual. This is where I thought they would be better placed given that Starmer and Gray, unusually for an incoming PM and Chief of Staff, have experience of the centre of the government.

    There is time to sort all this out. Narratives always contains the seeds of their own reversal, and none has ever lasted for an entire Parliament. By April departments will know their three-year spending plans, and we will have a stream of more substantive policy announcements. None of this will matter if, in four years’ time, people feel better off and that public services are improving. (Equally if they don’t feel that then no amount of great speeches or “vision” will make any difference).
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,617
    edited September 2024
    Andy_JS said:

    Yvette Cooper is a possibility.
    She was my thought.

    However, while it's fun to speculate, the Labour Party tends to be very reluctant to pull the trigger on a leader. When was the last time a Labour leader was pushed aside? Arguably Blair, but if he doesn't count then you're looking back to before I was born. Whereas the Conservatives have had three successful coups in the last five years.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,052

    There is a gap between “hermits” and a £1.2m loan.

    The position of MP is one of huge responsibility. And with that comes consequences.

    One of those consequences is that you don’t get to do everything you might like to.

    I don't think having her sister die of brain cancer was something McDonagh liked to do.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,316
    IanB2 said:

    This evening’s local accuweather forecast: Heavy rain and strong winds from hurricane; life-threatening flooding, mudslides, debris flows and power outages. Rainfall over next 24 hrs could reach 18 inches.

    I assume you are referring to your current location (USA) not the Isle of White?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,726

    British Transport Police? You're aving a larf.
    Why not? It's a pan-GB outfit that avoids NI and the various controversies that would come with a police force that rests above the devolved administrations in Wales and Scotland.
  • Roger said:

    No fags
    No beer
    Vote Keir
    I like that one. There's a certain reminiscence of this classic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E2JVFLZDTbU
  • IanB2 said:

    This evening’s local accuweather forecast: Heavy rain and strong winds from hurricane; life-threatening flooding, mudslides, debris flows and power outages. Rainfall over next 24 hrs could reach 18 inches.

    I blame Starmer.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,822
    edited September 2024

    Why the fuck do people live in Florida? Too hot in summer, unspeakable storms in winter
    I’ve been to the southeast coast four times in the autumn. The first time we got wrapped up in Hurricane Sandy; the later part of the ‘trip of a lifetime’ arranged for my mother’s 80th was wrecked and ended with a night for the three of us sleeping in the hire car in JFK airport car park, with police tapping on the window to make sure we weren’t gasoline thieves. The second saw warm sunshine. My last trip, me and the dog were on the edge of a diminishing hurricane, and the demon storm that shared by own name pursued me up the coast bringing a whole week of rain. This time it looks like a quicker experience with hopefully just three wet days in total.

    And, yes, until Tuesday this week it had been unspeakably hot. It’s been a warm summer in the US, and Gulf ocean temperatures are at record highs - heralding a risky hurricane season.

    Today I reckon I will mostly be binge watching Slow Horses and the dog will mostly be bored.
  • Roger said:

    .
    I would say Sir Keir who stopped the most disgusting racist riots in my lifetime- overnight - and Theresa May are by a distance the best PMs we've had since Tony Blair.
    Come on, that's a bit January 6th precious isn't it? From what I can gather there was a few dozen marches which were peaceful enough, though I would imagine could feel a bit intimidating, and then three, maybe four even when it got out of hand, and even then it was tiny numbers. Those idiots who set fire to the bins outside a hostel, the one in sunderland high street, and maybe another hotel one.

    And that was it. If you think this disorder was the worst in your life, you have probably lived the most cossetted and peaceful existence in the history of all humanity.

    I never understand why people make things out more than they are. The disturbances that happened in Leeds a few days earlier were not far off as bad.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,734

    Take a look at Harris' latest MSNBC interview. Even MSNBC is saying she dodged the questions.

    She is a fundamentally poor candidate.

    Agree re the trends helping Trump. Look at the Gallup polling on which party is best trusted to sort voters' priorities.
    I think she is an ok but not exceptional candidate. She may be a better President. She seems to be a competent administrator.

    And the alternative is Trump so wind in her sails.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,882

    Take a look at Harris' latest MSNBC interview. Even MSNBC is saying she dodged the questions.

    She is a fundamentally poor candidate.

    Agree re the trends helping Trump. Look at the Gallup polling on which party is best trusted to sort voters' priorities.
    Yes, the trend does help Trump and she is a poor candidate. She was not tested at all prior to getting the nomination. Just a coronation.

    She is lucky she is up against the Trumpdozer.

    I think HYUFD is correct. If she was up against Haley she'd be toast.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,907

    You can put up a false background of course. When I am on Teams at work, I have a background with the company logo.
    I just don,t switch on the camera
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    edited September 2024
    Barnesian said:

    I hope so! As long as it is invested with a future return in excess of the interest on it, and not simply spent.
    Although... there's no need to increase borrowing.

    Just raise tax take as a %GDP to the same level as those failed economic basket cases like Norway, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, etc. and, hey presto, there's another £330bn to invest, wipe out the deficit and start paying down debt.

    It's so obvious I cannot see any government doesn't do it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,882
    malcolmg said:

    I just don,t switch on the camera
    Same here. When I am WFH no one wants to see me in my undies.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    DavidL said:

    I think she is an ok but not exceptional candidate. She may be a better President. She seems to be a competent administrator.

    And the alternative is Trump so wind in her sails.
    She is a normal, but B- at national level, candidate

    Trump is... well, Trump.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,882

    Can I suggest “Not a charmer. Keir Starmer.”
    Do you remember "Starmer the Llama harmer" ?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    malcolmg said:

    I just don,t switch on the camera
    Starmer doing a televised broadcast with the camera off might not work so well though...
This discussion has been closed.