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Who will flower in Scotland in 2026? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,212
edited September 29 in General
Who will flower in Scotland in 2026? – politicalbetting.com

NEW from @IpsosScotland: Labour's favourability ratings have fallen in Scotland. Over half of the public think the Scottish Government is doing badly on key issues (NHS, living standards, economy). But fewer now than in March think a Labour Scottish Government would do better. pic.twitter.com/PhKmvOI5Iv

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,495
    First and saor alba
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited September 26
    Prisoners will earn points to cut jail time in Texas-style reform

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/prisoners-points-reduce-jail-time-texas-3d2zzj0sr

    I have to say, the US wouldn't the first place I would be looking at for prison reform ideas, but maybe they have good ideas.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172
    The Scottish voters don't seem to have much time for anyone on government now.
    And who can blame them ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited September 26

    Leon said:

    Starmer is in serious trouble


    🔺 Update: Sir Keir Starmer used a Labour donor’s £18 million penthouse to urge the public to work from home during the pandemic and for an address to mark the Queen’s death ⬇️

    https://x.com/thetimes/status/1839191227083722799?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    The pre-recorded message was broadcast on BBC One at 7pm on Dec 13 2021. Under Covid guidance that came into force that day, people were advised to work from home where possible. It is unclear when the video was actually filmed.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/25/starmer-covid-broadcast-work-from-home-lord-alli-flat/ (£££)

    It looks like there is enough wiggle room there.
    The TLDR is that Starmer is a proven lawyer. He is unlikely to do things that actually break rules, even when he does things that feel like they ought to be against the rules.

    As for the Telegraph piece... Written by a cad, my new favourite phrase.
    Well he hasn't declared these as benefit in kind (and on numerous occasions misrecorded / failed to record on time donations), so he has broken the rules, but only in the way of doing 34 in a 30. Rather tardy for a lawyer not to be onto and accurate with the paperwork.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585
    edited September 26

    Prisoners will earn points to cut jail time in Texas-style reform

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/prisoners-points-reduce-jail-time-texas-3d2zzj0sr

    I have to say, the US wouldn't the first place I would be looking at for prison reform ideas, but maybe they have good ideas.

    Looks like an easy way to track how many courses the prisoner does, how those courses impact his ongoing behaviour -> how likely a prisoner is to reoffend and linking (early) release dates to that likelihood of re-offending does seem to make sense..
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,972
    I know their Rugby team are not great but Flower of Scotland is a cracking anthem.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,972
    It is at times like this the board misses Stuart Dickson and his comments about "Scotch experts"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172
    The Speaker Christianwashing the racist congressman whose vile tweet @TheScreamingEagles noted yesterday.

    Also going with the Trump technique of "I didn't see it myself, but..."

    Johnson: Clay Higgins is a dear friend of mine and a colleague from Louisiana, and a very frank and outspoken person. He's also a very principled man. I didn’t even see it but he tweeted something today about Haitians.

    Reporter: He told them to get out of the country by Jan 20th

    Johnson: 🙄 Ok. He was approached on the floor by colleagues who said that was offensive. He said he went to the back and he prayed about it, and he regretted it, and he pulled the post down. I'm sure he probably regrets the language he used. But you know, we move forward. We believe in redemption around here.

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1839061279585218794
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited September 26
    And another OpenAI bod has quit...

    https://x.com/barret_zoph/status/1839095143397515452

    OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew, and VP Research Barret Zoph

    https://www.outlookbusiness.com/corporate/mira-murati-exits-altman-led-openai-bob-mcgraw-and-barret-zoph-follow-suit

    3 in a day. It can't be the money, apparently median dev salary is $1m a year.
  • eek said:

    Prisoners will earn points to cut jail time in Texas-style reform

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/prisoners-points-reduce-jail-time-texas-3d2zzj0sr

    I have to say, the US wouldn't the first place I would be looking at for prison reform ideas, but maybe they have good ideas.

    Looks like an easy way to track how many courses the prisoner does, how those courses impact his ongoing behaviour -> how likely a prisoner is to reoffend and linking (early) release dates to that likelihood of re-offending does seem to make sense..
    Emphasising the Texas-style bit is smart, it's not as if anyone thinks of our friends in the sunbelt as soft on crime.

    Otherwise, looks like a reasonable thing to do to reward engagement with rehabilitation, and how else do we deal with having approximately zero spare prison capacity?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,972

    Prisoners will earn points to cut jail time in Texas-style reform

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/prisoners-points-reduce-jail-time-texas-3d2zzj0sr

    I have to say, the US wouldn't the first place I would be looking at for prison reform ideas, but maybe they have good ideas.

    Perhaps we can give all prisoners the equivalent of a Nectar card for their stay and they can earn points and redeem them for some luxuries.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934
    Nigelb said:

    The Speaker Christianwashing the racist congressman whose vile tweet @TheScreamingEagles noted yesterday.

    Also going with the Trump technique of "I didn't see it myself, but..."

    Johnson: Clay Higgins is a dear friend of mine and a colleague from Louisiana, and a very frank and outspoken person. He's also a very principled man. I didn’t even see it but he tweeted something today about Haitians.

    Reporter: He told them to get out of the country by Jan 20th

    Johnson: 🙄 Ok. He was approached on the floor by colleagues who said that was offensive. He said he went to the back and he prayed about it, and he regretted it, and he pulled the post down. I'm sure he probably regrets the language he used. But you know, we move forward. We believe in redemption around here.

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1839061279585218794

    He prayed. And God told him "Don't be such a racist tw@." So he took the post down.

    The power of prayer.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585

    And another OpenAI bod has quit...

    https://x.com/barret_zoph/status/1839095143397515452

    OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew, and VP Research Barret Zoph

    https://www.outlookbusiness.com/corporate/mira-murati-exits-altman-led-openai-bob-mcgraw-and-barret-zoph-follow-suit

    3 in a day. It can't be the money, apparently median dev salary is $1m a year.

    They are on far more than $1m a year...

    Beyond that it's hard to say what's going on with OpenAi and those people will have knowledge about the situation that no one else has..
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited September 26
    eek said:

    And another OpenAI bod has quit...

    https://x.com/barret_zoph/status/1839095143397515452

    OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew, and VP Research Barret Zoph

    https://www.outlookbusiness.com/corporate/mira-murati-exits-altman-led-openai-bob-mcgraw-and-barret-zoph-follow-suit

    3 in a day. It can't be the money, apparently median dev salary is $1m a year.

    They are on far more than $1m a year...

    Beyond that it's hard to say what's going on with OpenAi and those people will have knowledge about the situation that no one else has..
    I know....I said the median dev salary is $1m a year as an indication of just how well paid even the "regular" staff at OpenAI are paid, they are far more senior.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585

    Leon said:

    Starmer is in serious trouble


    🔺 Update: Sir Keir Starmer used a Labour donor’s £18 million penthouse to urge the public to work from home during the pandemic and for an address to mark the Queen’s death ⬇️

    https://x.com/thetimes/status/1839191227083722799?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    The pre-recorded message was broadcast on BBC One at 7pm on Dec 13 2021. Under Covid guidance that came into force that day, people were advised to work from home where possible. It is unclear when the video was actually filmed.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/25/starmer-covid-broadcast-work-from-home-lord-alli-flat/ (£££)

    It looks like there is enough wiggle room there.
    The TLDR is that Starmer is a proven lawyer. He is unlikely to do things that actually break rules, even when he does things that feel like they ought to be against the rules.

    As for the Telegraph piece... Written by a cad, my new favourite phrase.
    Well he hasn't declared these as benefit in kind (and on numerous occasions misrecorded / failed to record on time donations), so he has broken the rules, but only in the way of doing 34 in a 30. Rather tardy for a lawyer not to be onto and accurate with the paperwork.
    How can using a better filming location (for filming purposes) be a benefit in kind for SKS...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,668
    You must despair of good governance if you live in Scotland.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,495
    edited September 26

    You must despair of good governance if you live in Scotland.

    Shangri la compared to england
    We only have incompetence, no extracting millions for personal gain etc. Dick turpin
    was hung for less
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,125
    edited September 26

    That growth agenda seems to be down the list of importance....France and Germany make sure he is included.

    Starmer's anti-growth agenda
    Tax everything that breathes
    Regulate everything else to extinction
    Drive anyone mobile out of the country or into retirement
    Give in to the unions at every turn
    Make energy as expensive as possible
    Cancel lots of infrastructure projects
    Jack up the cost of, and regulation around, employing people until it's not worth it any more
    Etc etc etc

    Starmer's growth agenda
    Pretend to want it
    Maybe build some ugly, shoddy houses eventually, especially where nobody wants to live
    ... er ...
    That's it

    Exactly what you'd expect from a staggeringly arrogant and incompetent ex-Trotskyist lawyer who's never worked in industry or finance and doesn't know any economics or care to inform himself at all.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,213
    Taz said:

    Prisoners will earn points to cut jail time in Texas-style reform

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/prisoners-points-reduce-jail-time-texas-3d2zzj0sr

    I have to say, the US wouldn't the first place I would be looking at for prison reform ideas, but maybe they have good ideas.

    Perhaps we can give all prisoners the equivalent of a Nectar card for their stay and they can earn points and redeem them for some luxuries.
    And perhaps we could learn lessons from, you know, European countries that have functioning prison systems, lower prison populations, lower crime rates and much lower reoffending rates rather than…er…Texas state penitentiaries.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited September 26
    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Prisoners will earn points to cut jail time in Texas-style reform

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/prisoners-points-reduce-jail-time-texas-3d2zzj0sr

    I have to say, the US wouldn't the first place I would be looking at for prison reform ideas, but maybe they have good ideas.

    Perhaps we can give all prisoners the equivalent of a Nectar card for their stay and they can earn points and redeem them for some luxuries.
    And perhaps we could learn lessons from, you know, European countries that have functioning prison systems, lower prison populations, lower crime rates and much lower reoffending rates rather than…er…Texas state penitentiaries.
    Always pointing in Sweden seems to have gone out of fashion these days among lefties.....
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,213

    Nigelb said:

    The Speaker Christianwashing the racist congressman whose vile tweet @TheScreamingEagles noted yesterday.

    Also going with the Trump technique of "I didn't see it myself, but..."

    Johnson: Clay Higgins is a dear friend of mine and a colleague from Louisiana, and a very frank and outspoken person. He's also a very principled man. I didn’t even see it but he tweeted something today about Haitians.

    Reporter: He told them to get out of the country by Jan 20th

    Johnson: 🙄 Ok. He was approached on the floor by colleagues who said that was offensive. He said he went to the back and he prayed about it, and he regretted it, and he pulled the post down. I'm sure he probably regrets the language he used. But you know, we move forward. We believe in redemption around here.

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1839061279585218794

    He prayed. And God told him "Don't be such a racist tw@." So he took the post down.

    The power of prayer.
    From what I’ve read about God in that book, especially the first few chapters, he probably said something more like “you go boy, give those Haitians hell. Kill their first born sons while you’re at it”.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,668
    edited September 26
    That kiss is disturbing me.

    Lady Starmer looks like she means it, with real passion, whereas SSW looks like he's kissing his mum.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585

    You must despair of good governance if you live in Scotland.

    On the other hand you could point the Scots at Wales and emphasis how there is no real opposition there unlike Scotland which has Labour and the SNP...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,213
    edited September 26

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Prisoners will earn points to cut jail time in Texas-style reform

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/prisoners-points-reduce-jail-time-texas-3d2zzj0sr

    I have to say, the US wouldn't the first place I would be looking at for prison reform ideas, but maybe they have good ideas.

    Perhaps we can give all prisoners the equivalent of a Nectar card for their stay and they can earn points and redeem them for some luxuries.
    And perhaps we could learn lessons from, you know, European countries that have functioning prison systems, lower prison populations, lower crime rates and much lower reoffending rates rather than…er…Texas state penitentiaries.
    Always pointing in Sweden seems to have gone out of fashion these days among lefties.....
    To be fair one time a government decided to copy something Swedish it was Gove with his ill fated free schools.

    Almost every other European country would be an improvement on the British prison system, let alone the US one. But our governments live so immersed in the Anglo Saxon world that they will only take case studies from English speaking countries. Witness their obsession with the Australian approach to tax administration.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942
    edited September 26
    eek said:

    You must despair of good governance if you live in Scotland.

    On the other hand you could point the Scots at Wales and emphasis how there is no real opposition there unlike Scotland which has Labour and the SNP...
    After the GE election, the UK parliament looks much more like a one-party state than Scotland, which even has a minority government at the moment (making the upcoming Scottish budget quite fun).

    And yet Labour still don't look like they are actually going to do anything interesting with that majority. A bit of tinkering with spending and taxes.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,495
    eek said:

    You must despair of good governance if you live in Scotland.

    On the other hand you could point the Scots at Wales and emphasis how there is no real opposition there unlike Scotland which has Labour and the SNP...
    Given the clowns, comic singers and crooks at Westminster, how could a sentient being write crap like that of was it meant to be a joke.
  • If Starmer's use of the penthouse for his video was all within the rules, wtaf did he pretend he was at home?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited September 26
    Unfortunately for Downing Street, exactly 37 minutes after their line was published Guido went to pixel with evidence that Starmer paid tribute to the Queen on the day of her death from the very same ‘one-off’ penthouse. Gone were the family photos – replaced with some dark urns and books including an Obama biography…

    This is going to become untenable for Keir Starmer. The revelations about Lord Alli’s apartment have only just started…

    https://order-order.com/2024/09/26/downing-streets-fake-covid-home-defence-proven-wrong-within-30-minutes/

    Cavaet emptor....recent record on scalps is very poor, and he was giving the big 'un during the GE about a scandal that was nothing.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585
    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    You must despair of good governance if you live in Scotland.

    On the other hand you could point the Scots at Wales and emphasis how there is no real opposition there unlike Scotland which has Labour and the SNP...
    After the GE election, the UK parliament looks much more like a one-party state than Scotland, which even has a minority government at the moment (which might make the Scottish budget quite fun).

    And yet Labour still don't look like they are actually going to do anything interesting with that majority. A bit of tinkering with spending and taxes.
    Given the holidays and now the party conference there hasn't been much time to do anything.

    Supposedly there is going to be an announcement on employment rights soon and from what I've seen online absolutely no-one likes the suggested changes...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,378
    "...the biggest disappointment since the Rings of Power..."

    :D:D:D
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,495
    eek said:

    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    You must despair of good governance if you live in Scotland.

    On the other hand you could point the Scots at Wales and emphasis how there is no real opposition there unlike Scotland which has Labour and the SNP...
    After the GE election, the UK parliament looks much more like a one-party state than Scotland, which even has a minority government at the moment (which might make the Scottish budget quite fun).

    And yet Labour still don't look like they are actually going to do anything interesting with that majority. A bit of tinkering with spending and taxes.
    Given the holidays and now the party conference there hasn't been much time to do anything.

    Supposedly there is going to be an announcement on employment rights soon and from what I've seen online absolutely no-one likes the suggested changes...
    Too busy filling their pockets and getting measured up for clobber etc to be distracted by their day job.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,972
    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Prisoners will earn points to cut jail time in Texas-style reform

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/prisoners-points-reduce-jail-time-texas-3d2zzj0sr

    I have to say, the US wouldn't the first place I would be looking at for prison reform ideas, but maybe they have good ideas.

    Perhaps we can give all prisoners the equivalent of a Nectar card for their stay and they can earn points and redeem them for some luxuries.
    And perhaps we could learn lessons from, you know, European countries that have functioning prison systems, lower prison populations, lower crime rates and much lower reoffending rates rather than…er…Texas state penitentiaries.
    LOL

    I was making a jocular comment not a serious critique on prison reform. :wink:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited September 26
    viewcode said:

    "...the biggest disappointment since the Rings of Power..."

    :D:D:D

    I know a great story about the making of the Rings of Power, but I don't think I can share it publicly.
  • malcolmg said:

    You must despair of good governance if you live in Scotland.

    Shangri la compared to england
    We only have incompetence, no extracting millions for personal gain etc. Dick turpin
    was hung for less
    No, that's right. I can't think of a single case of rampant corruption involving the governing party in Scotland.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172

    viewcode said:

    "...the biggest disappointment since the Rings of Power..."

    :D:D:D

    I know a great story about the making of the Rings of Power, but I don't think I can share it publicly.
    Are you Leon ?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,394
    edited September 26

    Unfortunately for Downing Street, exactly 37 minutes after their line was published Guido went to pixel with evidence that Starmer paid tribute to the Queen on the day of her death from the very same ‘one-off’ penthouse. Gone were the family photos – replaced with some dark urns and books including an Obama biography…

    This is going to become untenable for Keir Starmer. The revelations about Lord Alli’s apartment have only just started…

    https://order-order.com/2024/09/26/downing-streets-fake-covid-home-defence-proven-wrong-within-30-minutes/

    Cavaet emptor....recent record on scalps is very poor, and he was giving the big 'un during the GE about a scandal that was nothing.

    According to the Telegraph: The Prime Minister, who fiercely guards his family’s privacy, has never used his own home for political broadcasts.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/25/starmer-covid-broadcast-work-from-home-lord-alli-flat/ (£££)

    Which implies Guido can have as many examples as there have been broadcasts, but also that they do not add up to very much.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,112
    eek said:

    You must despair of good governance if you live in Scotland.

    On the other hand you could point the Scots at Wales and emphasis how there is no real opposition there unlike Scotland which has Labour and the SNP...
    The contemporary problem is that all governments are disliked, SNP, Labour, Tory, Macron, Biden, Trumpist, Treudeau etc. It's very hard to find a popular government in any democratic country in the world, and not much evidence that undemocratic countries governments are popular either.

    It seems to be less about who is in charge than that people have far higher expectations than can be delivered. There's very little optimism, positivity or vision about anywhere in the world.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945
    Mr. Urquhart, never watched Rings of Power itself but I have enjoyed the online mockery.

    "Breaking news: a volcano has exploded in the Southlands, now known as Mordor. Luckily, no-one important was hurt by the tidal wave of lava."
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,495

    malcolmg said:

    You must despair of good governance if you live in Scotland.

    Shangri la compared to england
    We only have incompetence, no extracting millions for personal gain etc. Dick turpin
    was hung for less
    No, that's right. I can't think of a single case of rampant corruption involving the governing party in Scotland.
    Go on list them you know you are desperate to, sure you have a list of the millions
  • viewcode said:

    "...the biggest disappointment since the Rings of Power..."

    :D:D:D

    I know a great story about the making of the Rings of Power, but I don't think I can share it publicly.
    Surely the very fact you can't tell it makes it a sh1t story.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945
    Dr. Foxy, a large part of the lack of optimism is that a combination of the financial crisis and pandemic in relatively quick succession has caused widespread economic weakness. This is not the case in the USA, which has substituted low economic growth for high, and made up for it by having a crazy level of political polarisation.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,495
    edited September 26

    Unfortunately for Downing Street, exactly 37 minutes after their line was published Guido went to pixel with evidence that Starmer paid tribute to the Queen on the day of her death from the very same ‘one-off’ penthouse. Gone were the family photos – replaced with some dark urns and books including an Obama biography…

    This is going to become untenable for Keir Starmer. The revelations about Lord Alli’s apartment have only just started…

    https://order-order.com/2024/09/26/downing-streets-fake-covid-home-defence-proven-wrong-within-30-minutes/

    Cavaet emptor....recent record on scalps is very poor, and he was giving the big 'un during the GE about a scandal that was nothing.

    According to the Telegraph: The Prime Minister, who fiercely guards his family’s privacy, has never used his own home for political broadcasts.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/25/starmer-covid-broadcast-work-from-home-lord-alli-flat/ (£££)

    Which implies Guido can have as many examples as there have been broadcasts, but also that they do not add up to very much.
    Stock excuse from the roaster trying to squirm out of it
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970

    Unfortunately for Downing Street, exactly 37 minutes after their line was published Guido went to pixel with evidence that Starmer paid tribute to the Queen on the day of her death from the very same ‘one-off’ penthouse. Gone were the family photos – replaced with some dark urns and books including an Obama biography…

    This is going to become untenable for Keir Starmer. The revelations about Lord Alli’s apartment have only just started…

    https://order-order.com/2024/09/26/downing-streets-fake-covid-home-defence-proven-wrong-within-30-minutes/

    Cavaet emptor....recent record on scalps is very poor, and he was giving the big 'un during the GE about a scandal that was nothing.

    It's what you do. It's called FILM MAKING. You don't let a film crew into your house unless you are demented. Houses are not designed to shoot in so you recreate them. I really cant believe the morons they're letting onto this site anymore.. I know Livermore hasn't got a brain but I thought you would be more clued up.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,433
    "With the new Labour government led by Starmer proving to be the biggest disappointment since the Rings of Power..."

    That's a poor analogy; RoP series 1 was only 2022. Labour's hope has been for much longer than that...

    Perhaps Game of Thrones season 8? Lost season 6?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited September 26
    Roger said:

    Unfortunately for Downing Street, exactly 37 minutes after their line was published Guido went to pixel with evidence that Starmer paid tribute to the Queen on the day of her death from the very same ‘one-off’ penthouse. Gone were the family photos – replaced with some dark urns and books including an Obama biography…

    This is going to become untenable for Keir Starmer. The revelations about Lord Alli’s apartment have only just started…

    https://order-order.com/2024/09/26/downing-streets-fake-covid-home-defence-proven-wrong-within-30-minutes/

    Cavaet emptor....recent record on scalps is very poor, and he was giving the big 'un during the GE about a scandal that was nothing.

    It's what you do. It's called FILM MAKING. You don't let a film crew into your house unless you are demented. Houses are not designed to shoot in so you recreate them. I really cant believe the morons they're letting onto this site anymore.. I know Livermore hasn't got a brain but I thought you would be more clued up.
    Huh, are you having a problem reading. My comment is buyer beware, have heard it all before, not convinced at all. However, this is a political betting website, its sort of relevant that somebody is claiming they have big dirt coming.
  • GCSEgate. I'm now confused as to whether the boy was in the posh flat, or Starmer was there and the boy stayed home, or whether they were both in Covent Garden. Yesterday I thought it was the boy who went there to revise but the more accounts I see, the less clear things are.

    The dates only starting partway through exam season is easily explained. Rishi did not call the election until 22nd May.

    @JosiasJessop may have stumbled on the correct approach which is to attack Starmer for hypocrisy. It is hard to discern any technical offence.

    Again with Starmer as lawyer not politician, he plays within the rules but without regard for the optics.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972

    Dr. Foxy, a large part of the lack of optimism is that a combination of the financial crisis and pandemic in relatively quick succession has caused widespread economic weakness. This is not the case in the USA, which has substituted low economic growth for high, and made up for it by having a crazy level of political polarisation.

    Also a crazy amount of printed money, which they’ve got away with to some extent thanks to the US$ being seen as a global reserve currency.

    The pound is at a recent high vs the dollar at the moment, and the Chinese are starting to agree with the Saudis to buy some oil priced in Yuan, so the dollar could be about to take something of a devaluation, unprecedented in living memory.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069
    eek said:

    And another OpenAI bod has quit...

    https://x.com/barret_zoph/status/1839095143397515452

    OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew, and VP Research Barret Zoph

    https://www.outlookbusiness.com/corporate/mira-murati-exits-altman-led-openai-bob-mcgraw-and-barret-zoph-follow-suit

    3 in a day. It can't be the money, apparently median dev salary is $1m a year.

    They are on far more than $1m a year...

    Beyond that it's hard to say what's going on with OpenAi and those people will have knowledge about the situation that no one else has..
    If I was on millions a year, within a year I'd have millions of pounds. So would retire.

    Which I suppose is why I'm not on millions a year.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,495

    "With the new Labour government led by Starmer proving to be the biggest disappointment since the Rings of Power..."

    That's a poor analogy; RoP series 1 was only 2022. Labour's hope has been for much longer than that...

    Perhaps Game of Thrones season 8? Lost season 6?

    More teletubbies
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited September 26

    GCSEgate. I'm now confused as to whether the boy was in the posh flat, or Starmer was there and the boy stayed home, or whether they were both in Covent Garden. Yesterday I thought it was the boy who went there to revise but the more accounts I see, the less clear things are.

    The dates only starting partway through exam season is easily explained. Rishi did not call the election until 22nd May.

    @JosiasJessop may have stumbled on the correct approach which is to attack Starmer for hypocrisy. It is hard to discern any technical offence.

    Again with Starmer as lawyer not politician, he plays within the rules but without regard for the optics.

    This is also Starmers problem. He always gives these lawyerly responses, which might well be ensuring he is covering all his bases from admitting wrong doing, but it just opens up more questions and makes him look really evasive e.g. Arsenal private box story. There have been briefings to say the original reports weren't correct, but he has had several interviews to clear this up and he goes full lawyer mode.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972
    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    And another OpenAI bod has quit...

    https://x.com/barret_zoph/status/1839095143397515452

    OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew, and VP Research Barret Zoph

    https://www.outlookbusiness.com/corporate/mira-murati-exits-altman-led-openai-bob-mcgraw-and-barret-zoph-follow-suit

    3 in a day. It can't be the money, apparently median dev salary is $1m a year.

    They are on far more than $1m a year...

    Beyond that it's hard to say what's going on with OpenAi and those people will have knowledge about the situation that no one else has..
    If I was on millions a year, within a year I'd have millions of pounds. So would retire.

    Which I suppose is why I'm not on millions a year.
    If you have £2m invested, you can easily take out £100k a year from it in interest and dividends, not to mention capital appreciation over time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited September 26
    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    And another OpenAI bod has quit...

    https://x.com/barret_zoph/status/1839095143397515452

    OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew, and VP Research Barret Zoph

    https://www.outlookbusiness.com/corporate/mira-murati-exits-altman-led-openai-bob-mcgraw-and-barret-zoph-follow-suit

    3 in a day. It can't be the money, apparently median dev salary is $1m a year.

    They are on far more than $1m a year...

    Beyond that it's hard to say what's going on with OpenAi and those people will have knowledge about the situation that no one else has..
    If I was on millions a year, within a year I'd have millions of pounds. So would retire.

    Which I suppose is why I'm not on millions a year.
    In my experience with these tech companies they have two types of people for are in early and stay on, the ones where no money ever is enough, they want the money, the power, etc. Zuckerberg is still very involved in Facebook, doesn't need to be.

    Then the others, who for them it is the interesting work and the money doesn't actually matter that much to them. They know they will never go without a well paid job and so its doing things that are super intellectually stimulating.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,433

    GCSEgate. I'm now confused as to whether the boy was in the posh flat, or Starmer was there and the boy stayed home, or whether they were both in Covent Garden. Yesterday I thought it was the boy who went there to revise but the more accounts I see, the less clear things are.

    The dates only starting partway through exam season is easily explained. Rishi did not call the election until 22nd May.

    @JosiasJessop may have stumbled on the correct approach which is to attack Starmer for hypocrisy. It is hard to discern any technical offence.

    Again with Starmer as lawyer not politician, he plays within the rules but without regard for the optics.

    It's so obviously hypocritical, given Starmer's desire to disrupt the schooling of thousands of kids.

    But the plebs don't matter, as long as you're on the gravy train that gives you thousands of pounds worth of 'gifts'...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945
    Mr. Sandpit, yeah, I heard about some oil being priced in yuan on one current events video or other.
  • Cookie said:

    eek said:

    And another OpenAI bod has quit...

    https://x.com/barret_zoph/status/1839095143397515452

    OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew, and VP Research Barret Zoph

    https://www.outlookbusiness.com/corporate/mira-murati-exits-altman-led-openai-bob-mcgraw-and-barret-zoph-follow-suit

    3 in a day. It can't be the money, apparently median dev salary is $1m a year.

    They are on far more than $1m a year...

    Beyond that it's hard to say what's going on with OpenAi and those people will have knowledge about the situation that no one else has..
    If I was on millions a year, within a year I'd have millions of pounds. So would retire.

    Which I suppose is why I'm not on millions a year.
    In my experience with these tech companies they have two types of people for are in early and stay on, the ones where no money ever is enough, they want the money, the power, etc. Zuckerberg is still very involved in Facebook, doesn't need to be.

    Then the others, who for them it is the interesting work and the money doesn't actually matter that much to them. They know they will never go without a well paid job and so its doing things that are super intellectually stimulating.
    Wider than tech, I reckon.

    From which we can conclude that the people who accumulate the most cash aren't the most useful or valuable, but the ones who are most interested in accumulating cash.

    Which is a model that seems to fit the data.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972

    Unfortunately for Downing Street, exactly 37 minutes after their line was published Guido went to pixel with evidence that Starmer paid tribute to the Queen on the day of her death from the very same ‘one-off’ penthouse. Gone were the family photos – replaced with some dark urns and books including an Obama biography…

    This is going to become untenable for Keir Starmer. The revelations about Lord Alli’s apartment have only just started…

    https://order-order.com/2024/09/26/downing-streets-fake-covid-home-defence-proven-wrong-within-30-minutes/

    Cavaet emptor....recent record on scalps is very poor, and he was giving the big 'un during the GE about a scandal that was nothing.

    According to the Telegraph: The Prime Minister, who fiercely guards his family’s privacy, has never used his own home for political broadcasts.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/25/starmer-covid-broadcast-work-from-home-lord-alli-flat/ (£££)

    Which implies Guido can have as many examples as there have been broadcasts, but also that they do not add up to very much.
    There’s two things that might be of relevance to the story. One is his compliance with Covid restrictions, and the other is that the cost of his use of the apartment was properly recorded to the appropriate authorities.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    At the moment the SNP most seats but a Unionist majority looks the likeliest outcome on current Holyrood polls. Indeed, Swinney could probably only stay First Minister with confidence and supply from the Scottish Conservatives if the SNP lose their majority with the Greens.

    That is not impossible as Salmond was FM from 2007 to 2011 with confidence and supply from Scottish Tories
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Speaker Christianwashing the racist congressman whose vile tweet @TheScreamingEagles noted yesterday.

    Also going with the Trump technique of "I didn't see it myself, but..."

    Johnson: Clay Higgins is a dear friend of mine and a colleague from Louisiana, and a very frank and outspoken person. He's also a very principled man. I didn’t even see it but he tweeted something today about Haitians.

    Reporter: He told them to get out of the country by Jan 20th

    Johnson: 🙄 Ok. He was approached on the floor by colleagues who said that was offensive. He said he went to the back and he prayed about it, and he regretted it, and he pulled the post down. I'm sure he probably regrets the language he used. But you know, we move forward. We believe in redemption around here.

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1839061279585218794

    He prayed. And God told him "Don't be such a racist tw@." So he took the post down.

    The power of prayer.
    From what I’ve read about God in that book, especially the first few chapters, he probably said something more like “you go boy, give those Haitians hell. Kill their first born sons while you’re at it”.
    God mellowed though. Some say he lost his mojo...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172

    eek said:

    And another OpenAI bod has quit...

    https://x.com/barret_zoph/status/1839095143397515452

    OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew, and VP Research Barret Zoph

    https://www.outlookbusiness.com/corporate/mira-murati-exits-altman-led-openai-bob-mcgraw-and-barret-zoph-follow-suit

    3 in a day. It can't be the money, apparently median dev salary is $1m a year.

    They are on far more than $1m a year...

    Beyond that it's hard to say what's going on with OpenAi and those people will have knowledge about the situation that no one else has..
    I know....I said the median dev salary is $1m a year as an indication of just how well paid even the "regular" staff at OpenAI are paid, they are far more senior.
    Sam Altman just got bunged another $10 billion in equity...

    Also, LOL.
    https://x.com/joshuapliu/status/1839063992876040362
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited September 26

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    And another OpenAI bod has quit...

    https://x.com/barret_zoph/status/1839095143397515452

    OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew, and VP Research Barret Zoph

    https://www.outlookbusiness.com/corporate/mira-murati-exits-altman-led-openai-bob-mcgraw-and-barret-zoph-follow-suit

    3 in a day. It can't be the money, apparently median dev salary is $1m a year.

    They are on far more than $1m a year...

    Beyond that it's hard to say what's going on with OpenAi and those people will have knowledge about the situation that no one else has..
    If I was on millions a year, within a year I'd have millions of pounds. So would retire.

    Which I suppose is why I'm not on millions a year.
    In my experience with these tech companies they have two types of people for are in early and stay on, the ones where no money ever is enough, they want the money, the power, etc. Zuckerberg is still very involved in Facebook, doesn't need to be.

    Then the others, who for them it is the interesting work and the money doesn't actually matter that much to them. They know they will never go without a well paid job and so its doing things that are super intellectually stimulating.
    Wider than tech, I reckon.

    From which we can conclude that the people who accumulate the most cash aren't the most useful or valuable, but the ones who are most interested in accumulating cash.

    Which is a model that seems to fit the data.
    I think tech is slightly different in at the moment if your really good, $500k-$1 million a salary is perfectly achievable, but a load of those people aren't there because its $1 million a year, they would be in academia if it wasn't for the access to mega GPU clusters to undertake research they can't do at a university and lots of people they know from academia now work there.

    Other fields, many do stay in academia because it is a better place to be, or the private sector position certainly doesn't pay the mega bucks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    edited September 26
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    You must despair of good governance if you live in Scotland.

    On the other hand you could point the Scots at Wales and emphasis how there is no real opposition there unlike Scotland which has Labour and the SNP...
    The contemporary problem is that all governments are disliked, SNP, Labour, Tory, Macron, Biden, Trumpist, Treudeau etc. It's very hard to find a popular government in any democratic country in the world, and not much evidence that undemocratic countries governments are popular either.

    It seems to be less about who is in charge than that people have far higher expectations than can be delivered. There's very little optimism, positivity or vision about anywhere in the world.
    Meloni in Italy is probably the most popular leader in the western world at the moment. Zelensky is also pretty popular for obvious reasons
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,495
    edited September 26
    HYUFD said:

    At the moment the SNP most seats but a Unionist majority looks the likeliest outcome on current Holyrood polls. Indeed, Swinney could probably only stay First Minister with confidence and supply from the Scottish Conservatives if the SNP lose their majority with the Greens.

    That is not impossible as Salmond was FM from 2007 to 2011 with confidence and supply from Scottish Tories

    Swinney is about as useful as an ashtray on a motorbike, no hope with that donkey anywhere near power
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,877
    FPT:
    MattW said:

    Wheels within wheels (and the US Judicial System), the trial of Trump's alleged attempted assassin at the golf course is being tried before ... Judge Aileen Cannon.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/routh-trump-cannon-florida-assassin-b2618464.html

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,433

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    And another OpenAI bod has quit...

    https://x.com/barret_zoph/status/1839095143397515452

    OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew, and VP Research Barret Zoph

    https://www.outlookbusiness.com/corporate/mira-murati-exits-altman-led-openai-bob-mcgraw-and-barret-zoph-follow-suit

    3 in a day. It can't be the money, apparently median dev salary is $1m a year.

    They are on far more than $1m a year...

    Beyond that it's hard to say what's going on with OpenAi and those people will have knowledge about the situation that no one else has..
    If I was on millions a year, within a year I'd have millions of pounds. So would retire.

    Which I suppose is why I'm not on millions a year.
    In my experience with these tech companies they have two types of people for are in early and stay on, the ones where no money ever is enough, they want the money, the power, etc. Zuckerberg is still very involved in Facebook, doesn't need to be.

    Then the others, who for them it is the interesting work and the money doesn't actually matter that much to them. They know they will never go without a well paid job and so its doing things that are super intellectually stimulating.
    I've worked for a couple of tech startups in the past (*), and it can be absolutely brilliant. Hard work, long hours, but you get to have your fingers in every pie. Writing code, testing, documentation, working in the lab, meeting customers, hiring... it's great fun. As the companies grow and form, the job becomes stale very rapidly.

    An acquaintance only ever works for startups; he is known as a bit of a startup king. He'll join a new company, work with them for a year or two, then get bored and move on. He is in demand and he is very much an all-rounder who is willing to do the 'little' work that many 'geniuses' decry.

    (*) One so new that me and a friend had to drive to the other side of Cambridge to pick up our PCs on our first day, and we had about five phone lines for the entire company...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited September 26
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    And another OpenAI bod has quit...

    https://x.com/barret_zoph/status/1839095143397515452

    OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew, and VP Research Barret Zoph

    https://www.outlookbusiness.com/corporate/mira-murati-exits-altman-led-openai-bob-mcgraw-and-barret-zoph-follow-suit

    3 in a day. It can't be the money, apparently median dev salary is $1m a year.

    They are on far more than $1m a year...

    Beyond that it's hard to say what's going on with OpenAi and those people will have knowledge about the situation that no one else has..
    I know....I said the median dev salary is $1m a year as an indication of just how well paid even the "regular" staff at OpenAI are paid, they are far more senior.
    Sam Altman just got bunged another $10 billion in equity...

    Also, LOL.
    https://x.com/joshuapliu/status/1839063992876040362
    I saw a good one where somebody had got generative AI to turn the photo into a video of them leaving.
  • You must despair of good governance if you live in Scotland.

    Good morning

    We certainly do here in Wales

    Latest from Drakeford

    'We are considering increasing income tax rates as we are not bound by Labour's promises' !!!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,877
    edited September 26

    Prisoners will earn points to cut jail time in Texas-style reform

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/prisoners-points-reduce-jail-time-texas-3d2zzj0sr

    I have to say, the US wouldn't the first place I would be looking at for prison reform ideas, but maybe they have good ideas.

    I'd say that the point about the US is that they have more than 50 prison systems, so overall there is a lot of variation with potential fertile ground for good ideas.

    Also, as a statistical sample they have a prison population of nearly 2 million, so there are also so many things *not* to learn from there.

    The one that always reminds me of that is that State to State transfer of suspects is termed "extradition".

    I think the important question will be knitting ideas into a coherent process, which enables an effective evaluation of what works here for which groups of offenders, rather than creating a collage made up of bits and pieces of sticky plaster.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,394
    edited September 26
    Sandpit said:

    Unfortunately for Downing Street, exactly 37 minutes after their line was published Guido went to pixel with evidence that Starmer paid tribute to the Queen on the day of her death from the very same ‘one-off’ penthouse. Gone were the family photos – replaced with some dark urns and books including an Obama biography…

    This is going to become untenable for Keir Starmer. The revelations about Lord Alli’s apartment have only just started…

    https://order-order.com/2024/09/26/downing-streets-fake-covid-home-defence-proven-wrong-within-30-minutes/

    Cavaet emptor....recent record on scalps is very poor, and he was giving the big 'un during the GE about a scandal that was nothing.

    According to the Telegraph: The Prime Minister, who fiercely guards his family’s privacy, has never used his own home for political broadcasts.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/25/starmer-covid-broadcast-work-from-home-lord-alli-flat/ (£££)

    Which implies Guido can have as many examples as there have been broadcasts, but also that they do not add up to very much.
    There’s two things that might be of relevance to the story. One is his compliance with Covid restrictions, and the other is that the cost of his use of the apartment was properly recorded to the appropriate authorities.
    From the Telegraph piece, it almost certainly did comply with the Covid rules at the time of recording, if not the time of broadcast. The use of the flat for recording speeches would be an expense or donation to the Labour Party and not Starmer personally.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,972
    Sandpit said:

    Dr. Foxy, a large part of the lack of optimism is that a combination of the financial crisis and pandemic in relatively quick succession has caused widespread economic weakness. This is not the case in the USA, which has substituted low economic growth for high, and made up for it by having a crazy level of political polarisation.

    Also a crazy amount of printed money, which they’ve got away with to some extent thanks to the US$ being seen as a global reserve currency.

    The pound is at a recent high vs the dollar at the moment, and the Chinese are starting to agree with the Saudis to buy some oil priced in Yuan, so the dollar could be about to take something of a devaluation, unprecedented in living memory.
    Does this not depend on whether or not the USD remains the global reserve currency and its fall from this status has been forecast for a while now.

    The US Treasury still seems to be getting its bond auctions away okay at reasonable rates so there is demand at the moment.
  • HYUFD said:

    At the moment the SNP most seats but a Unionist majority looks the likeliest outcome on current Holyrood polls. Indeed, Swinney could probably only stay First Minister with confidence and supply from the Scottish Conservatives if the SNP lose their majority with the Greens.

    That is not impossible as Salmond was FM from 2007 to 2011 with confidence and supply from Scottish Tories

    That it wasn't a confidence & supply arrangement in 2007 notwithstanding, not going to happen whatever the arithmetic; SCons a very different (and more rubbish) party from that of Aunty Annabel. More likely an unspoken agreement between SLab & SCons to make jive talker Anas FM.

    Anway, a sight to gladden all hearts.



    https://x.com/conor_matchett/status/1838698441024667874


  • eek said:

    Prisoners will earn points to cut jail time in Texas-style reform

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/prisoners-points-reduce-jail-time-texas-3d2zzj0sr

    I have to say, the US wouldn't the first place I would be looking at for prison reform ideas, but maybe they have good ideas.

    Looks like an easy way to track how many courses the prisoner does, how those courses impact his ongoing behaviour -> how likely a prisoner is to reoffend and linking (early) release dates to that likelihood of re-offending does seem to make sense..
    Until the victims complain loudly in the tabloids.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,153
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    You must despair of good governance if you live in Scotland.

    On the other hand you could point the Scots at Wales and emphasis how there is no real opposition there unlike Scotland which has Labour and the SNP...
    The contemporary problem is that all governments are disliked, SNP, Labour, Tory, Macron, Biden, Trumpist, Treudeau etc. It's very hard to find a popular government in any democratic country in the world, and not much evidence that undemocratic countries governments are popular either.

    It seems to be less about who is in charge than that people have far higher expectations than can be delivered. There's very little optimism, positivity or vision about anywhere in the world.
    Also I think voters really don't like governments who presided over economic upheavals, regardless of how much blame might fairly be attributed to the politicians. Being in power during the post covid inflation period is not good for your popularity, just as being in power during the global financial crisis and its aftermath was not good for popularity. The voters don't give much credit for handling it comparatively well versus badly, I think. (e.g. I think Biden could reasonably claim to have brought the US out of the inflation period in better shape than many other economies, but if the Dems do pull out a victory in November next year it won't be on the back of positive economic sentiment.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082

    GCSEgate. I'm now confused as to whether the boy was in the posh flat, or Starmer was there and the boy stayed home, or whether they were both in Covent Garden. Yesterday I thought it was the boy who went there to revise but the more accounts I see, the less clear things are.

    The dates only starting partway through exam season is easily explained. Rishi did not call the election until 22nd May.

    @JosiasJessop may have stumbled on the correct approach which is to attack Starmer for hypocrisy. It is hard to discern any technical offence.

    Again with Starmer as lawyer not politician, he plays within the rules but without regard for the optics.

    It's so obviously hypocritical, given Starmer's desire to disrupt the schooling of thousands of kids.

    But the plebs don't matter, as long as you're on the gravy train that gives you thousands of pounds worth of 'gifts'...
    Sigh. They are not "plebs". Plebs were middle class, very often. Or even rich senators. Plebs had votes that could matter

    Head Count were the ones who had nothing, and whose votes would have next to no value.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Prisoners will earn points to cut jail time in Texas-style reform

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/prisoners-points-reduce-jail-time-texas-3d2zzj0sr

    I have to say, the US wouldn't the first place I would be looking at for prison reform ideas, but maybe they have good ideas.

    Perhaps we can give all prisoners the equivalent of a Nectar card for their stay and they can earn points and redeem them for some luxuries.
    And perhaps we could learn lessons from, you know, European countries that have functioning prison systems, lower prison populations, lower crime rates and much lower reoffending rates rather than…er…Texas state penitentiaries.
    Always pointing in Sweden seems to have gone out of fashion these days among lefties.....
    To be fair one time a government decided to copy something Swedish it was Gove with his ill fated free schools.

    Almost every other European country would be an improvement on the British prison system, let alone the US one. But our governments live so immersed in the Anglo Saxon world that they will only take case studies from English speaking countries. Witness their obsession with the Australian approach to tax administration.
    At the moment Norway probably has the lowest reconviction rate but some US states like Oregon and North Carolina also have reconviction rates lower than many European nations
    "A systematic review of criminal recidivism rates worldwide: 3-year update - PMC" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6743246/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972
    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dr. Foxy, a large part of the lack of optimism is that a combination of the financial crisis and pandemic in relatively quick succession has caused widespread economic weakness. This is not the case in the USA, which has substituted low economic growth for high, and made up for it by having a crazy level of political polarisation.

    Also a crazy amount of printed money, which they’ve got away with to some extent thanks to the US$ being seen as a global reserve currency.

    The pound is at a recent high vs the dollar at the moment, and the Chinese are starting to agree with the Saudis to buy some oil priced in Yuan, so the dollar could be about to take something of a devaluation, unprecedented in living memory.
    Does this not depend on whether or not the USD remains the global reserve currency and its fall from this status has been forecast for a while now.

    The US Treasury still seems to be getting its bond auctions away okay at reasonable rates so there is demand at the moment.
    The China/Saudi agreement is very small at the moment, but indicates the direction of travel. Yes it’s been predicted for decades that the US$ will lose reserve status.

    What’s new now is that the OPEC states are signing up to the BRICS group, and taking decisions with less reference to the Americans and Europeans. The Chinese are pushing hard the idea of pricing O&G product in Yuan to all of the BRICS nations, with the intention of crashing the dollar setting up a second global reserve currency among the 2nd and 3rd worlds.

    US Treasury Bond auctions are indeed still okay at the moment. But ask Liz Truss how quickly that can change.
  • Cookie said:

    eek said:

    And another OpenAI bod has quit...

    https://x.com/barret_zoph/status/1839095143397515452

    OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew, and VP Research Barret Zoph

    https://www.outlookbusiness.com/corporate/mira-murati-exits-altman-led-openai-bob-mcgraw-and-barret-zoph-follow-suit

    3 in a day. It can't be the money, apparently median dev salary is $1m a year.

    They are on far more than $1m a year...

    Beyond that it's hard to say what's going on with OpenAi and those people will have knowledge about the situation that no one else has..
    If I was on millions a year, within a year I'd have millions of pounds. So would retire.

    Which I suppose is why I'm not on millions a year.
    In my experience with these tech companies they have two types of people for are in early and stay on, the ones where no money ever is enough, they want the money, the power, etc. Zuckerberg is still very involved in Facebook, doesn't need to be.

    Then the others, who for them it is the interesting work and the money doesn't actually matter that much to them. They know they will never go without a well paid job and so its doing things that are super intellectually stimulating.
    I've worked for a couple of tech startups in the past (*), and it can be absolutely brilliant. Hard work, long hours, but you get to have your fingers in every pie. Writing code, testing, documentation, working in the lab, meeting customers, hiring... it's great fun. As the companies grow and form, the job becomes stale very rapidly.

    An acquaintance only ever works for startups; he is known as a bit of a startup king. He'll join a new company, work with them for a year or two, then get bored and move on. He is in demand and he is very much an all-rounder who is willing to do the 'little' work that many 'geniuses' decry.

    (*) One so new that me and a friend had to drive to the other side of Cambridge to pick up our PCs on our first day, and we had about five phone lines for the entire company...
    I worked for a start-up donkeys years ago where the tech platform needed a special laptop that was supposed ruggedized so it could be taken out into the field. The one arrived with the rest another month or so from delivery.

    The owner excited decided he wanted to test just how good the ruggedization was, specs said will survive a drop from some big height, so he proceeded to gather everybody around and throw it out the second floor window......well, not much dev work was done for the next month.
    We had a manager who pulled out a card from a running machine in order to demonstrate its full redundancy. Just about the only non-redundant part, as it turned out.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934
    pm215 said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    You must despair of good governance if you live in Scotland.

    On the other hand you could point the Scots at Wales and emphasis how there is no real opposition there unlike Scotland which has Labour and the SNP...
    The contemporary problem is that all governments are disliked, SNP, Labour, Tory, Macron, Biden, Trumpist, Treudeau etc. It's very hard to find a popular government in any democratic country in the world, and not much evidence that undemocratic countries governments are popular either.

    It seems to be less about who is in charge than that people have far higher expectations than can be delivered. There's very little optimism, positivity or vision about anywhere in the world.
    Also I think voters really don't like governments who presided over economic upheavals, regardless of how much blame might fairly be attributed to the politicians. Being in power during the post covid inflation period is not good for your popularity, just as being in power during the global financial crisis and its aftermath was not good for popularity. The voters don't give much credit for handling it comparatively well versus badly, I think. (e.g. I think Biden could reasonably claim to have brought the US out of the inflation period in better shape than many other economies, but if the Dems do pull out a victory in November next year it won't be on the back of positive economic sentiment.)
    If (when) the Dems pull out a victory, it will be because they have managed to offer a "change" candidate to Biden.

    It's comforting on one level to see that voters across so many nations have been pig-shit thick about Covid, the Russo-Ukraine war and the causes of inflation.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,521

    Mr. Urquhart, never watched Rings of Power itself but I have enjoyed the online mockery.

    "Breaking news: a volcano has exploded in the Southlands, now known as Mordor. Luckily, no-one important was hurt by the tidal wave of lava."

    A Sauron/Galadriel romance is certainly an an unusual take on Tolkien’s writings.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    And another OpenAI bod has quit...

    https://x.com/barret_zoph/status/1839095143397515452

    OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew, and VP Research Barret Zoph

    https://www.outlookbusiness.com/corporate/mira-murati-exits-altman-led-openai-bob-mcgraw-and-barret-zoph-follow-suit

    3 in a day. It can't be the money, apparently median dev salary is $1m a year.

    They are on far more than $1m a year...

    Beyond that it's hard to say what's going on with OpenAi and those people will have knowledge about the situation that no one else has..
    If I was on millions a year, within a year I'd have millions of pounds. So would retire.

    Which I suppose is why I'm not on millions a year.
    In my experience with these tech companies they have two types of people for are in early and stay on, the ones where no money ever is enough, they want the money, the power, etc. Zuckerberg is still very involved in Facebook, doesn't need to be.

    Then the others, who for them it is the interesting work and the money doesn't actually matter that much to them. They know they will never go without a well paid job and so its doing things that are super intellectually stimulating.
    I've worked for a couple of tech startups in the past (*), and it can be absolutely brilliant. Hard work, long hours, but you get to have your fingers in every pie. Writing code, testing, documentation, working in the lab, meeting customers, hiring... it's great fun. As the companies grow and form, the job becomes stale very rapidly.

    An acquaintance only ever works for startups; he is known as a bit of a startup king. He'll join a new company, work with them for a year or two, then get bored and move on. He is in demand and he is very much an all-rounder who is willing to do the 'little' work that many 'geniuses' decry.

    (*) One so new that me and a friend had to drive to the other side of Cambridge to pick up our PCs on our first day, and we had about five phone lines for the entire company...
    I worked for a start-up donkeys years ago where the tech platform needed a special laptop that was supposed ruggedized so it could be taken out into the field. The one arrived with the rest another month or so from delivery.

    The owner excited decided he wanted to test just how good the ruggedization was, specs said will survive a drop from some big height, so he proceeded to gather everybody around and throw it out the second floor window......well, not much dev work was done for the next month.
    We had a manager who pulled out a card from a running machine in order to demonstrate its full redundancy. Just about the only non-redundant part, as it turned out.
    LOL. We’ve all made similar mistakes once. The sensible IT people have only ever done it once.

    The only people pulling drives from running systems should be the salesman on his own demo environment.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    And another OpenAI bod has quit...

    https://x.com/barret_zoph/status/1839095143397515452

    OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew, and VP Research Barret Zoph

    https://www.outlookbusiness.com/corporate/mira-murati-exits-altman-led-openai-bob-mcgraw-and-barret-zoph-follow-suit

    3 in a day. It can't be the money, apparently median dev salary is $1m a year.

    They are on far more than $1m a year...

    Beyond that it's hard to say what's going on with OpenAi and those people will have knowledge about the situation that no one else has..
    I know....I said the median dev salary is $1m a year as an indication of just how well paid even the "regular" staff at OpenAI are paid, they are far more senior.
    Sam Altman just got bunged another $10 billion in equity...

    Also, LOL.
    https://x.com/joshuapliu/status/1839063992876040362
    "Those with big foreheads, please collect your things in the box provided and leave the building...."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934
    This. Government. Is. For. Sale....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,877
    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dr. Foxy, a large part of the lack of optimism is that a combination of the financial crisis and pandemic in relatively quick succession has caused widespread economic weakness. This is not the case in the USA, which has substituted low economic growth for high, and made up for it by having a crazy level of political polarisation.

    Also a crazy amount of printed money, which they’ve got away with to some extent thanks to the US$ being seen as a global reserve currency.

    The pound is at a recent high vs the dollar at the moment, and the Chinese are starting to agree with the Saudis to buy some oil priced in Yuan, so the dollar could be about to take something of a devaluation, unprecedented in living memory.
    Does this not depend on whether or not the USD remains the global reserve currency and its fall from this status has been forecast for a while now.

    The US Treasury still seems to be getting its bond auctions away okay at reasonable rates so there is demand at the moment.
    I don't see many strong alternatives at present, unless the new economic group gathering around the BRICS group of countries create payment infrastructure perhaps linked in to the Yuan.

    At present, it's not the Euro imo - though that could change a little if Russia collapses. In that case China would be paying attention to getting at least Manchuria back, and perhaps a lot more territory as a bonus.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,521
    edited September 26

    GCSEgate. I'm now confused as to whether the boy was in the posh flat, or Starmer was there and the boy stayed home, or whether they were both in Covent Garden. Yesterday I thought it was the boy who went there to revise but the more accounts I see, the less clear things are.

    The dates only starting partway through exam season is easily explained. Rishi did not call the election until 22nd May.

    @JosiasJessop may have stumbled on the correct approach which is to attack Starmer for hypocrisy. It is hard to discern any technical offence.

    Again with Starmer as lawyer not politician, he plays within the rules but without regard for the optics.

    It's so obviously hypocritical, given Starmer's desire to disrupt the schooling of thousands of kids.

    But the plebs don't matter, as long as you're on the gravy train that gives you thousands of pounds worth of 'gifts'...
    Sigh. They are not "plebs". Plebs were middle class, very often. Or even rich senators. Plebs had votes that could matter

    Head Count were the ones who had nothing, and whose votes would have next to no value.
    Plebs meant strictly anyone who was not Patrician (which included most of the nobility, by the end of the Republic), and 99% of citizens.

    But, it also had a pejorative meaning by then, “Plebs sordida” (ie Great Unwashed).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934
    geoffw said:
    Currantly...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,521
    “And the animals looked from pigs to men, and from men to pigs…”
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    edited September 26
    Sean_F said:

    GCSEgate. I'm now confused as to whether the boy was in the posh flat, or Starmer was there and the boy stayed home, or whether they were both in Covent Garden. Yesterday I thought it was the boy who went there to revise but the more accounts I see, the less clear things are.

    The dates only starting partway through exam season is easily explained. Rishi did not call the election until 22nd May.

    @JosiasJessop may have stumbled on the correct approach which is to attack Starmer for hypocrisy. It is hard to discern any technical offence.

    Again with Starmer as lawyer not politician, he plays within the rules but without regard for the optics.

    It's so obviously hypocritical, given Starmer's desire to disrupt the schooling of thousands of kids.

    But the plebs don't matter, as long as you're on the gravy train that gives you thousands of pounds worth of 'gifts'...
    Sigh. They are not "plebs". Plebs were middle class, very often. Or even rich senators. Plebs had votes that could matter

    Head Count were the ones who had nothing, and whose votes would have next to no value.
    Plebs meant strictly anyone who was not Patrician (which included most of the nobility, by the end of the Republic), and 99% of citizens.

    But, it also had a pejorative meaning by then, “Plebs sordida” (ie Great Unwashed).
    Yup

    But it is interesting that the Head Count are barely mentioned. So low that the rich (who ran Rome, by explicit definition) barely bothered to insult them.

    EDIT: and by numbers, they were the biggest group.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945
    Mr. F, and yet, somehow still less stupid than the greatest smith in Middle-Earth needing to be taught what an alloy is.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755
    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dr. Foxy, a large part of the lack of optimism is that a combination of the financial crisis and pandemic in relatively quick succession has caused widespread economic weakness. This is not the case in the USA, which has substituted low economic growth for high, and made up for it by having a crazy level of political polarisation.

    Also a crazy amount of printed money, which they’ve got away with to some extent thanks to the US$ being seen as a global reserve currency.

    The pound is at a recent high vs the dollar at the moment, and the Chinese are starting to agree with the Saudis to buy some oil priced in Yuan, so the dollar could be about to take something of a devaluation, unprecedented in living memory.
    Does this not depend on whether or not the USD remains the global reserve currency and its fall from this status has been forecast for a while now.

    The US Treasury still seems to be getting its bond auctions away okay at reasonable rates so there is demand at the moment.
    The US yield curve has been utterly manipulated over the last year, in part by the Treasury breaking their own guidelines on the tenor of bonds they issue.

    This month finally, finally saw crossover in the 2yr-10yr split after a near record long period of inversion. That is to say, a 10yr bond now pays a higher yield than a 2yr.

    You’ll know the brown stuff is really about to fly when the 3mth yield falls below the 10yr yield. Early 2025 seems a good bet. The powers that be have kept the entire machine pumped headed into 5th Nov at all cost.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    And another OpenAI bod has quit...

    https://x.com/barret_zoph/status/1839095143397515452

    OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew, and VP Research Barret Zoph

    https://www.outlookbusiness.com/corporate/mira-murati-exits-altman-led-openai-bob-mcgraw-and-barret-zoph-follow-suit

    3 in a day. It can't be the money, apparently median dev salary is $1m a year.

    They are on far more than $1m a year...

    Beyond that it's hard to say what's going on with OpenAi and those people will have knowledge about the situation that no one else has..
    If I was on millions a year, within a year I'd have millions of pounds. So would retire.

    Which I suppose is why I'm not on millions a year.
    In my experience with these tech companies they have two types of people for are in early and stay on, the ones where no money ever is enough, they want the money, the power, etc. Zuckerberg is still very involved in Facebook, doesn't need to be.

    Then the others, who for them it is the interesting work and the money doesn't actually matter that much to them. They know they will never go without a well paid job and so its doing things that are super intellectually stimulating.
    I've worked for a couple of tech startups in the past (*), and it can be absolutely brilliant. Hard work, long hours, but you get to have your fingers in every pie. Writing code, testing, documentation, working in the lab, meeting customers, hiring... it's great fun. As the companies grow and form, the job becomes stale very rapidly.

    An acquaintance only ever works for startups; he is known as a bit of a startup king. He'll join a new company, work with them for a year or two, then get bored and move on. He is in demand and he is very much an all-rounder who is willing to do the 'little' work that many 'geniuses' decry.

    (*) One so new that me and a friend had to drive to the other side of Cambridge to pick up our PCs on our first day, and we had about five phone lines for the entire company...
    I worked for a start-up donkeys years ago where the tech platform needed a special laptop that was supposed ruggedized so it could be taken out into the field. The one arrived with the rest another month or so from delivery.

    The owner excited decided he wanted to test just how good the ruggedization was, specs said will survive a drop from some big height, so he proceeded to gather everybody around and throw it out the second floor window......well, not much dev work was done for the next month.
    But the lawyers were on overtime...
  • Sandpit said:

    Unfortunately for Downing Street, exactly 37 minutes after their line was published Guido went to pixel with evidence that Starmer paid tribute to the Queen on the day of her death from the very same ‘one-off’ penthouse. Gone were the family photos – replaced with some dark urns and books including an Obama biography…

    This is going to become untenable for Keir Starmer. The revelations about Lord Alli’s apartment have only just started…

    https://order-order.com/2024/09/26/downing-streets-fake-covid-home-defence-proven-wrong-within-30-minutes/

    Cavaet emptor....recent record on scalps is very poor, and he was giving the big 'un during the GE about a scandal that was nothing.

    According to the Telegraph: The Prime Minister, who fiercely guards his family’s privacy, has never used his own home for political broadcasts.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/25/starmer-covid-broadcast-work-from-home-lord-alli-flat/ (£££)

    Which implies Guido can have as many examples as there have been broadcasts, but also that they do not add up to very much.
    There’s two things that might be of relevance to the story. One is his compliance with Covid restrictions, and the other is that the cost of his use of the apartment was properly recorded to the appropriate authorities.
    From the Telegraph piece, it almost certainly did comply with the Covid rules at the time of recording, if not the time of broadcast. The use of the flat for recording speeches would be an expense or donation to the Labour Party and not Starmer personally.
    You can put up a false background of course. When I am on Teams at work, I have a background with the company logo.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,972
    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dr. Foxy, a large part of the lack of optimism is that a combination of the financial crisis and pandemic in relatively quick succession has caused widespread economic weakness. This is not the case in the USA, which has substituted low economic growth for high, and made up for it by having a crazy level of political polarisation.

    Also a crazy amount of printed money, which they’ve got away with to some extent thanks to the US$ being seen as a global reserve currency.

    The pound is at a recent high vs the dollar at the moment, and the Chinese are starting to agree with the Saudis to buy some oil priced in Yuan, so the dollar could be about to take something of a devaluation, unprecedented in living memory.
    Does this not depend on whether or not the USD remains the global reserve currency and its fall from this status has been forecast for a while now.

    The US Treasury still seems to be getting its bond auctions away okay at reasonable rates so there is demand at the moment.
    The China/Saudi agreement is very small at the moment, but indicates the direction of travel. Yes it’s been predicted for decades that the US$ will lose reserve status.

    What’s new now is that the OPEC states are signing up to the BRICS group, and taking decisions with less reference to the Americans and Europeans. The Chinese are pushing hard the idea of pricing O&G product in Yuan to all of the BRICS nations, with the intention of crashing the dollar setting up a second global reserve currency among the 2nd and 3rd worlds. .
    You can't blame the Chinese. They are not stupid. They have seen how the Russians were affected after the invasion of Ukraine and a challenger to the USD and western hegemony is something they will see as desirable.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    edited September 26

    Roger said:

    Unfortunately for Downing Street, exactly 37 minutes after their line was published Guido went to pixel with evidence that Starmer paid tribute to the Queen on the day of her death from the very same ‘one-off’ penthouse. Gone were the family photos – replaced with some dark urns and books including an Obama biography…

    This is going to become untenable for Keir Starmer. The revelations about Lord Alli’s apartment have only just started…

    https://order-order.com/2024/09/26/downing-streets-fake-covid-home-defence-proven-wrong-within-30-minutes/

    Cavaet emptor....recent record on scalps is very poor, and he was giving the big 'un during the GE about a scandal that was nothing.

    It's what you do. It's called FILM MAKING. You don't let a film crew into your house unless you are demented. Houses are not designed to shoot in so you recreate them. I really cant believe the morons they're letting onto this site anymore.. I know Livermore hasn't got a brain but I thought you would be more clued up.
    Huh, are you having a problem reading. My comment is buyer beware, have heard it all before, not convinced at all. However, this is a political betting website, its sort of relevant that somebody is claiming they have big dirt coming.
    Then why repeat such an absurd story? You wouldn't shoot anything in someones house. You either use a studio with a set designer with a brief 'recreate Starmer's home' or you get a location finder to find somewhere that would be suitable.In other words you build the set on location.

    Typically it would be several times the size of someone's house to acomodate a crew of abut 12 and equipment that would take up more space than the crew.

    You expect this ignorance from Guido and his super-dim readers but not on PB.
  • Sky unrelenting on the Starmer penthouse story replaying Starmer addressing the nation with the backdrop made to look as his home, including photographs of his children, when it was an 18 million penthouses loaned to him and to quote Kay Burley 'he is pulling the wool over our eyes'
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment the SNP most seats but a Unionist majority looks the likeliest outcome on current Holyrood polls. Indeed, Swinney could probably only stay First Minister with confidence and supply from the Scottish Conservatives if the SNP lose their majority with the Greens.

    That is not impossible as Salmond was FM from 2007 to 2011 with confidence and supply from Scottish Tories

    That it wasn't a confidence & supply arrangement in 2007 notwithstanding, not going to happen whatever the arithmetic; SCons a very different (and more rubbish) party from that of Aunty Annabel. More likely an unspoken agreement between SLab & SCons to make jive talker Anas FM.

    Anway, a sight to gladden all hearts.



    https://x.com/conor_matchett/status/1838698441024667874


    Strong white man overbite action there.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172
    edited September 26
    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dr. Foxy, a large part of the lack of optimism is that a combination of the financial crisis and pandemic in relatively quick succession has caused widespread economic weakness. This is not the case in the USA, which has substituted low economic growth for high, and made up for it by having a crazy level of political polarisation.

    Also a crazy amount of printed money, which they’ve got away with to some extent thanks to the US$ being seen as a global reserve currency.

    The pound is at a recent high vs the dollar at the moment, and the Chinese are starting to agree with the Saudis to buy some oil priced in Yuan, so the dollar could be about to take something of a devaluation, unprecedented in living memory.
    Does this not depend on whether or not the USD remains the global reserve currency and its fall from this status has been forecast for a while now.

    The US Treasury still seems to be getting its bond auctions away okay at reasonable rates so there is demand at the moment.
    The China/Saudi agreement is very small at the moment, but indicates the direction of travel. Yes it’s been predicted for decades that the US$ will lose reserve status.

    What’s new now is that the OPEC states are signing up to the BRICS group, and taking decisions with less reference to the Americans and Europeans. The Chinese are pushing hard the idea of pricing O&G product in Yuan to all of the BRICS nations, with the intention of crashing the dollar setting up a second global reserve currency among the 2nd and 3rd worlds.

    US Treasury Bond auctions are indeed still okay at the moment. But ask Liz Truss how quickly that can change.
    That's pretty well inevitable, though, now that the US is again self-sufficient in oil, so isn't a customer, and China is OPEC's largest single market (and a major source of imports).

    Trump fantasising he can change that by more drilling is... fantasy.
    And pursuing economic isolationism, which he's essentially proposing, is likely to accelerate rather than halt the process.
This discussion has been closed.