Punters and Fox News say Harris won the debate – politicalbetting.com
Punters and Fox News say Harris won the debate – politicalbetting.com
Here's Trump getting fact-checked on the Springfield/immigrants eating pets hoax and just desperately responding "they said it on TV" pic.twitter.com/nHBOBJuDqP
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https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/lecturers-threaten-strike-over-funding/ar-AA1qlaso?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=3858d581453d49499792a12f7f9e3926&ei=10
Generally speaking I’m a bit sceptical of how important they are, but I suspect this one might have some outsized importance given the last one brought Biden down and therefore there’ll have been a heightened awareness of the debates generally.
Anyway, it shifts the momentum back in Harris’ favour after a period where it looked like she was starting to slip. As per previous thread, together with the Swift endorsement couldn’t have been a better night for the Dems really.
However I doubt it makes much difference to the polling. Hillary Clinton won every debate with Trump in 2016 and his voteshare was little changed and it was much the same in 2020 when a pre dementia Biden won his debates with Trump too.
However if Harris can squeeze more Independents into her camp after her debate win it could help her a little in swing states
Once Mad Ed kills the North sea and Wrecker Reeves butchers the economy there wont be much left.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/sep/11/uk-economy-unexpectedly-flatlines-for-second-month-in-row
so much for growth is my priority
The union remains militant, but I’m not certain the membership is that eager for more strike action. But the union is right that the sector is in trouble. Undergrad fees remain frozen despite the inflation of recent years. It’s not rocket science: costs have gone up, but a major source of income hasn’t, so universities are in deficit.
https://x.com/brexit_sham/status/1833737950368051267
Harris’s tactic of needling Trump about things like rally sizes and basically showing his thin skin is really showing the best way to fight him. Attack his ego, don’t try and play the policy ball too heavily. If you’ve annoyed him, it hands him a lot of rope to come out with something odd.
I smell the influence of Pete Buttigieg.
In recent years, Universities have been encouraged/expected to pay their way by taking on lots of foreign students on massive fees.
Which was sort of fine until people looked at the consequences for immigration stats.
Oh, and good-but-not-stellar universities have expanded like crazy to get more income to support their fixed costs, often more than they can really support. Which in turn has made life hell for the OK universities.
And even if you think the university system is too big, few people want their local campus to close, or their (grand)child to miss out.
https://x.com/abbydphillip/status/1833703421360198026?t=zVdVrOMdbpc6yJHD5Iz5cg&s=19
/s.
Looking ahead, are riots good or bad for GDP?
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/27/the-wh2016-betting-moves-markedly-back-to-clinton-after-convincing-first-debate-performance/
The WH2016 betting moves markedly back to Clinton after convincing first debate performance
They basically spend the entire debate calling each other a douche or a turd sandwich. That used to be the standard of American debates.
They are only important and decisive if they reveal the candidate to be totally incompetent and incapable. Otherwise, it's just Punch and Judy
"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1833728804579111268?t=qNchxf2ASs8Vl0nS3HjGKg&s=19
"Fine Taylor … you win … I will give you a child and guard your cats with my life"
A bit creepy and non-consensual.
There are 2 issues here:
Firstly, I think it would be a massive mistake for Harris supporters to complain that she got 5 minutes less because she is black, or a woman, or a black woman. Or that Trump got more minutes because he is white. It would turn off voters and help the Republican story that she is a "DEI pick"
Secondly is it acceptable or useful to ever say 'old, white-guy entitlement'? I don't like it - for the reasons you say. It's like saying 'there was this typical old white man' in a pejorative sense, when you wouldn't say 'there was this typical young black man' in a pejorative sense. Or?
Lady is all class.
And Musk’s subsequent offer to impregnate her just put all that into relief.
Nothing has changed my view that the 5th of November will be a blowout for Harris.
If there had been a Harris gaffe, then you can bet your bottom dollar the media narrative would have gone absolutely insane and it could have handed the momentum back to Trump.
Refusing to put up fees (or finance in other ways) is impacting the quality of university courses. If people go to uni they deserve a decent course.
I'm sure it's nothing a victory in the Ludlow tractor tug-of-war won't cure but it can't come soon enough
Clinton was a well known feature of US political life, who'd been around for years; there are still a fair number of voters who don't have much of a clue about Harris.
A successful convention followed by a successful debate - which the media had been bigging up as a 'test' she had to pass - is about as good an introduction as the Democrats could hope for.
And as with Reagan/Carter, this is likely to be the only debate, unless Trump gets really desperate.
... That's not much better, is it?
Swift’s voting preference that would not already be voting democrat? It’s more a fleeting morale boost to the campaigners than a game changer surely. The Liz Cheney endorsement feels far more impactful to me.
All I can visualise is Elon chasing Taylor with a turkey baster.
I cannot think of anything which matches that.
As either damage control, or, as it turns out now, the cherry on the cake.
*And sufficiently impressed by how well the campaign has been managed.
Will the last Donald Trump supporter please set the light switch on fire as they riot in impotent rage?
This election is done.
As I have been saying for weeks, Trump has gone utterly batshit as his campaign tanks and hers takes off. He can't stand it, and he will say more and more outrageous things to get the attention back onto him.
Instructive in the debate. She quotes reality at him. He goes off down some mad alley, says the facts are lies, presents what he thinks is reality, then a few seconds later he's forgotten that number and increases it some more. Then starts on how the forrin are eating your dog.
What does Harris do? Openly laughs at him. Look at him like he's deranged. Stands there with her chin resting in her hand with a "can you believe this shit" grin on her face.
I know that the remaining Forrin Eat Your Dog fans want this not to be true. But the polls are showing the ship sinking. Whats more, we know where its sinking - moderates, undecideds, women wanting to keep the GOP out of their Vagina, young voters especially women.
Trump is the Titanic. He hit the iceberg. He's starting to list. Below the surface the ocean is steadily flooding in. But like Ismay he can only respond by rattling off stats about how the Titanic is the most Glorious, Biggest and Longest ship ever which Cannot Sink. But unlike Ismay he thinks the Titanic is a Mile long with 17 funnels. Where Guatamalans are stoking the boilers with your dog.
Trump says he has ‘concepts of a plan’ to replace Obamacare
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4873433-vice-president-harris-trump-debate/
From ES "Figures from Ucas (Universities and Colleges Admissions Service) show by the end of June 41.9% of all 18-year-olds in the UK had applied through their system – compared to 42.1% last year and 44.1% in 2022."
On the other, 55-45 is a landslide in a two horse race.
The reality of FPTP is that loyalist voters don't matter, which is why parties that play to their loyalists lose.
America has lost its mind.
https://x.com/ons/status/1833747369793343977
Growth flat in July, 0.5% over past three months. Construction and manufacturing again showing a contraction, the positives being in services.
Pay excluding bonuses up 5.1% annually in three months to July.
But for that, Clinton would likely have won, baskets of deplorables notwithstanding.
And the Harris campaign appears far shrewder in its messaging.
When I left school in 1960 just 4% went to university
https://x.com/hodgetwins/status/1833678649632915621
It’s quite a famous video in American pro-life circles.
Here’s a BBC article about the 2019 Virginia abortion bill.
Headline “Virginia late-term abortion bill labelled 'infanticide' ”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47066307
LOL
“Among non-EU migrants issued an initial study visa in 2017, only 20% still had permission to stay in the UK (valid leave to remain) in 2022, around five years later. Approximately 8% (around 12,300) held work visas, another 9% (around 13,800) were still on study visas, and less than 0.1% (146) had indefinite leave to remain”
Those on study visas will mostly leave the UK on finishing their studies. A proportion of those on work visas will do too. So, yes, 20% in the short term, but it’s probably less than 10% in the long run.
However, the famously anti-immigration Conservative government did introduce a new graduate visa in 2022 that allows students to stay for 2-3 years after graduating. This has seen a large uptake.
What is wrong with Britain?
Often backed by some… interesting financial engineering.
Hence the utter desperation by some universities, during COVID, to force students to pay for their accommodation. Even if they weren’t going to need it.
I think this is an interesting one.
Despite its squeezes, the university sector has had a long period relatively in the sun - meaning perhaps 25 years, compared to for example local authorities, public transport, the legal system, or defence.
How will this play in a competition for scarce (or "find your own" resources)?
Universities across the country have been milking the Student Accommodation cash-cow since 2000 or before, and heavily since ~2005-2010, and have also targeted intertnational student fees. What other income sources are available?
Trump is all about celebrity. The fuel for his ego. It is why he is so thin-skinned about who has the bigger rallies. If an even bigger celebrity wades in to endorse his opponent, it will be the only thing he takes from the debate night. It will enrage him.
Hopefully, America is about to change channels and stop watching him. (I think where he really lost it and never recovered his composure was when Harris goaded him about being fired by the voters. "I'm the only one who gets to say who gets fired!! That's me! Me!!!")
Donald - you're fired from Celebrity World. Go directly to jail. Do not grab any pussy....
https://x.com/goodwinmj/status/1833396724137615642?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
The biggest providers in the market nowadays are private firms such as Unite, IQ or Student Roost all backed by pension funds.
Universities simply don't have the money to build them anymore - Newcastle's redevelopment of Castle Leazes is a joint venture with Unite as they cannot finance it any other way.
"The report also says that a cyclist who handed over helmet camera footage to a garda of a driver using their phone or parking illegally ended up with a Fixed Charge Penalty Notice (FCPN) after the same footage showed the cyclist breaking a red light."
FPTP is no different, in many way, to other systems. You have to build a coalition. In the case of FPTP it is a coalition inside a party, very often.
Your BBC headline shows that the right have been throwing around the term “infanticide” for many years. It doesn’t show that infanticide is legal. There is no state in USA where it is legal to kill a baby after it has been born.
By the way, do you still believe the pet-eating immigrant story too?
I made several observations. I was also timed out with the following bonus bit:
Domestic student fees are down afaics by about 35% in real terms since 2010 (£9000 then to £9250 now).
It’s a sector that should be ripe for disruption with technology.
I sometimes think that the US and the world might be currently a lot better off if Oprah hadn't endorsed Obama, and instead Hillary Clinton had won the 2008 presidential election. For one thing, she might have imposed a no-fly-zone over Syria, saving a lot of civilian lives and not emboldening Russia. We might have avoided a Russian invasion of Ukraine and also president Trump.