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The Lib Dems and the Tory peril – politicalbetting.com
The Lib Dems and the Tory peril – politicalbetting.com
‘Obsession’ with Reform UK could leave Tories out of power for 20 years, warns Andy Street https://t.co/tPehjlDm0O
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And second, like the Lib Dems if the Tories pick that idiot Jenrick.
You never know, safety cars, etc.
There were several seats they took where the tactical vote was unclear and where it will be more so next time, which may help reinforce majorities. What’s more, unencumbered by the need to lead opposition, LibDem MP’s will have the time to properly embed themselves in their constituencies. I anticipate quite a few of the new seats becoming quite sticky. In many ways they are a better fit for a liberal centrist party than the seats they held in 1997.
The miserablism and coercive approach of Labour is doing it no favours, but we have no real polling yet, and the pollsters have a lot to do to get their models right. In particular their turnout prediction.
Street looks to be the first significant Tory to have worked their way through the grief response to resolution, perhaps because of a 2 month headstart.
It's possible Mercedes will suffer in the heat. That said, I think Hamilton has a better chance than Verstappen.
(Or summit like that.)
Thank goodness times have changed. The 'medical facilities' at some circuits in the seventies were muddy tents.
An interesting interview with Tony Blair.
I really don't think it is going to be that simple.
My only concern is how bad Norris starts from pole, last week did him no harm but it will eventually cost him.
"Today, we launch the daily data dump on the crimes – under *Brazilian* law – that fake “judge” @alexandre has committed!
He can block this platform in Brazil, but he can’t stop the whole world from knowing his illegal, shameful & hypocritical deeds. Karma’s a b*tch bro."
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1830062141744853281
You're right that he needs to sort out his starts, though, way too many poor ones this year.
It's really really hard to map a Conservative path to Downing Street that doesn't go through the sort of seats that the Lib Dems gorged on two months ago. And a lot of Lib Dem voters rather like opting out of the question of who actually runs Britain.
One quibblette though. Dave didn't do that much to hit Lib Dem popularity in the 2010 election. What did for them was being in government, especially as a junior coalition partner. That's not easy to engineer and adds another five years to the time in purgatory.
That analogy may end up applying to the title race, if he wins that.
May one be permitted to enquire what Mrs Jessop thought of this?
There is a real possibility that Labour will lose its majority in 2029 and only be in position to continue in government with LD support. That would be a very difficult decision for the party, not least because keeping in power a government that has lost seats would be out of tune with the electorate. My inclination would be to steer clear of coalition, and vote on a bill by Bill basis.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1830105442472600046
Wait... what.... 'bonking' has more than one meaning?
I would expect a fresh face leading Labour in the 2029 GE, in an attempt to do a Harris/Walz revitalisation and be the "change" choice.
At the moment neither is happening. Indeed on the latest poll from BMG taken last week the Tories are already up 2% since the general election to 26% with Labour down to 30% and Reform while up to 19% are further behind the Tories than the Tories are behind Labour.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/voters-labour-dishonest-tax-plans-fuel-duty-rise-3253546
There is also evidence Tory members are giving Tom Tugendhat, the candidate most likely to win back southern voters and seats from the LDs, a hearing. A new JL Tory members poll today has Tugendhat beating Jenrick and Patel and only narrowly losing to Badenoch
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13800647/Tory-leadership-race-Tom-Tugendhat-Robert-Jenrick-Kemi-Badenoch-poll.html
While Trump is clearly targeting women and Independent voters with his comments he also does risk evangelicals and conservative Catholics staying home with his now more pro choice stance on abortion especially
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-wants-make-ivf-treatments-paid-government-insurance-compani-rcna168804
Also the Tories are only getting solid support from the over 75s at the moment, which is unsustainable in the medium term obviously.
If people stop voting for Starmer's Labour party, their votes have to go somewhere, but they may not stack up very efficiently for the Conservatives.
No one believes the flip flopping liar about his support for IVF - which every GOP senator but two voted against funding.
The Arligton cemetery fiasco started out as an attempt by Trump to win over veterans - and ends with them pissed at the lack of respect at sacred ground. And veterans are 6% of the voters in the US.
The second one...well, it's hard.
The Tories need to recruit a million voters to replace those lost to the grim reaper just to stand still, though Reeves plans to do that for them with her WFP policy.
*Tax (on others) and Spend (on people like me) which is a large part of the Reform vote, just with different values of "others" and of "people like me".
However he said would still vote "no" on a measure that would amend the state's constitution to protect abortion rights.
"You need more time than six weeks," Trump said. "I’ve disagreed with that right from the early primaries when I heard about it."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy547v72nd4o
Trump has also now signalled support for legalising marijuana in Florida which DeSantis and GOP leaders oppose there
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/31/us/elections/trump-marijuana-legalization-florida.html
The Lib Dem path to overtaking the Conservatives goes like this:
1. Identify thirty or so target seats. They will be overwhelmingly Conservative-held with a chunky Labour vote to squeeze, most will look like current Lib Dem seats- leafy.
2. Throw the kitchen sink at them for four to five years.
3. Err...
4. That's it really.
Nothing about social democracy vs. orange bookery. Everything about the failings of the government, the uselessnesses of your Tory MP and lots and lots of photos of potholes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7v5q000medo
I am not in the LDs to help the nicer parts of Britain become nicer/be kept nice, I want to solve Britain's structural problems.
And to do that, you need at least junior ministers, with a secretariat of civil servants, to enact those policies.
If the Lib Dems have the opportunity to join a coalition, and reject it, I leave the party.
Kamala 2.12
Republican Party 1.94
Democratic Party 2.06
Note that in at least some bookmakers, prices on the named candidates and their parties are identical, in which case back the party as insurance against reckless bus drivers.
Meanwhile if Starmer and Reeves want to build all those new houses and other developments they will have to destroy the LibDem's nimbyism in all those new LibDem seats in southern England.
The Lib-Lab development wars should be fascinating.
I am sure that other parties are surely taking note, though hard to see Swinney, Jenrick or Tugenhadt carrying it off, let alone Starmer. Rayner probably could as fun Gran.
I think the real electoral test of Labour will be the May 2026 Holyrood elections. SLAB are the only realistic alternative Scottish government to the SNP, even if as coalition leader, and after 2 years we will see if Lab are still considered the least bad.
The SNP has as much or more to sort out as the Tories in terms of party direction, and less time to do it in. SLAB have the challenge of selling austerity to a people that don't want it. It really will be interesting to see who succeeds.
Their problem is that under recent leaders the Conservatives have been nowhere near either Liberal or democratic. The proof of the pudding... and all that.
Now, with all due respect to TSE and his adoration of Cameron and Osborne, Cameron was just a poseur. "Compassionate Conservative" and all that. He could not even stand up for the Coalition against his own backwoodsmen. And ended up by stabbing the Lib Dems in the back.
Just a few months ago, the Lib Dems tabled an amendment calling on the last government to adopt a tough position on the water companies and their useless and self-serving directors. The Conservative MPs all voted against this, of course. That single vote exemplified all too clearly the way that the Conservative Party sees the people of this county. We are there to be exploited in the interests of foreign investors.
And of course the Labour Party was no better. They abstained, every last one of them. Feeble and uncaring, of course, but that was and is how Starmer wanted to play things.
I do feel sorry for all the decent and honest Conservatives, who have been so let down by the people at the top of their party. Simply spouting Lib Dem slogans will not do the trick for them - nor even supporting some Lib Dem policies, which they don't really believe in.
Finally, just to say that a lot of my family used to support the Conservatives. This year, as far as I know, not a single one of them voted Conservative. If you want to win people back, you will have to be honest and genuine.
https://www.holyrood.com/comment/view,failing-and-flailing-the-snp-has-lost-sight-of-what-it-is-for
The slightly interesting suggestion in that article is, a bit like Brexit, the separatists best hope of winning a vote was by never having to show or explain how it would work.
Being the party of Government, and totally fucking it up, has soured the project.
The Tories were lucky they didn't completely fuck it up till after the vote
Of course it isn't guaranteed to survive, but when Labour screw up badly enough, the rest will fall into place. And if it doesn't, then they will continue in government and who leads the Conservative Party is irrelevant.
What unites us is making a real practical improvement to people's lives without ideological labels or hangups.
The Dems should bring back their funding bill before November.
A brilliant analogy. And not great for a government leadership already accused of being robotic
"“Kamala Harris has done nothing but climb the ladder of power since the moment she got up off her knees in front of Willie Brown,” Erickson spewed. Attacking Harris’ short-lived relationship with the former San Francisco mayor is a common refrain in current right-wing discourse as frustration mounts with conservatives’ inability to land any real blows on her soaring campaign."
They simply won't be able to resist targeting higher earners, and that will hit people in many of the affluent seats the LDs hold.
Anti-Conservative voting can very quickly turn to anti-Labour voting.
“September kills me with its sadness” - Lord Byron
However “autumn is the mind’s true spring” - someone else
For me it is a late rise then hire a car at Tivat airport and then - onwards to the Accursed Mountains!
No joke. That’s what they’re called. Brilliant
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accursed_Mountains
Since they don't want to do that, they won't.
First, worrying about policy principles while they are out there rattling letterboxes is part of the downfall story of many a Conservative campaign.
Second, the relevant battleground here is centre-rightist dads and mums. Lib Dems don't need to make a policy play for those voters if the Conservatives go too Reform-y. Lib Dems win them basically by default. Nice Britain doesn't like voting for a Nasty Party. Where the line between Nice and Nasty is, is up for discussion, but it exists somewhere.
And with that, off to do Sunday School.
2.6 Fix the potholes.
Yes. Two Tier Kier is sticking. Because, true
September and October are OK.
The GOP wanted any mail in ballot envelopes with a missing handwritten date or the wrong date on thrown out even if they arrived in time to normally be counted .
It’s the principle of it that hurts. The end of summer. The end of long warm evenings. The sense of slow but accelerating decline, like life, that ends in the winter of death
Ok, time for the Accursed Mountains
NEW: polling of Conservative members in The Mail on Sunday
*Prospective match-ups*
Tugendhat 44% VS Jenrick 32%
Badenoch 34% VS Jenrick 35%
Tugendhat 48% VS Patel 40%
Badenoch 38% VS Patel 29%
Jenrick 42% VS Patel 35%
Badenoch 42% VS Tugendhat 39%
https://x.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/1830123800202969120
The LDs are a "safe" non-Labour option when people want the Conservatives out.
It doesn't work in reverse. The massive Cleggasm was a huge amount of peddling to stand still, and he still went backwards a bit.
Can the SNP really expect another term after the shambles of this one? Will they get a shellacking as in the Westminster seats?
Or can Sarwar sell unending winter, having promised not to do so, and before any green shoots appear?
It is an intriguing contest.
You're wedded to left v right. It's possible the country no longer is.
https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/1830164143422242999?s=46
What is absolutely correct is that the Tory voter coalition is splintered, and it will be a significant challenge for them to reassemble with both the LDs and Reform parked on their lawn.
GE 2029 will be won by the party that can assemble the biggest coalition of voter interests. At this point I dont count out much - including a third party surge.
The Conservative Party is a Trump-lite cesspool of toxic waste, governing on behalf of a core nucleus of elderly golf club bores with fascistic leanings. It's essential that it be denied a majority until the unlikely event of it cleaning up its act, or until it dies out. The cities loathe it, so it can only claw its way to victory through firm control of the whole of its powerbase in Southern England outside London. If the Lib Dems control a big chunk of that territory, the Conservatives can never win again. So we must all hope that Sir Ed plays his cards well.