Kamala Harris has the big mo – politicalbetting.com
Kamala Harris has the big mo – politicalbetting.com
As an aside, I encourage people to cite the Silver Bulletin polling averages. They're always free and while some of the other polling averages out there are great too, ours is a little more aggressive & often the quickest to pick up on trends.
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FPT: I should record here that I said something good about a lawyer. Here's a hero:
The human rights lawyer Clive Stafford Smith has represented Maharaj pro bono since 1993 when he was on death row – and now he is focused on getting his body back.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceq5j784n7go
Any budding civil rights lawyers out there of similar determination ?
For my entire life, I've heard politicians talk about bringing manufacturing jobs back to America.
It is FINALLY happening.
"We're not going back!" has been @KamalaHarris's rallying cry. But those jobs & industries of the future now hang in the balance this #election...
https://x.com/JesseJenkins/status/1823811245868507216
Good thread.
The former looks entirely possible. It’s on a knife edge anyway.
The Senate likely all comes down to Montana. They are generally polling ahead in the other close races I think, and WV is gone. So Tester winning would produce a 50-50 Senate and VP casting vote. At the moment, I think Tester is polling slightly behind.
I’m not sure they’ll be too upset with a 49-51 Senate though. The filibuster sadly probably remains, but they’ll have Murkowski and Collins on the GOP side who will probably get them where they need to be on nominations etc.
1) Never trust anybody who spells gonorrhoea correctly on the first attempt
and
2) There's a cure for gonorrhoea but there's no cure for regret
The other one is 85,000 cases of it last year more than any previous year...
https://x.com/lauraewebsterr/status/1823772779197411816?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Nicola Sturgeon still under investigation in SNP finances inquiry
Operation Branchform was triggered in July 2021 after complaints relating to more than £600,000 of donations given to the SNP
Nicola Sturgeon is still under investigation as part of an inquiry into the SNP’s finances, Scotland’s chief constable has confirmed.
Jo Farrell refused to say when Operation Branchform, the police investigation into the funding and finances of the SNP, will end. The inquiry was triggered in July 2021 after complaints were made relating to more than £600,000 of donations given to the SNP to fight a new independence referendum campaign.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/nicola-sturgeon-still-under-investigation-in-snp-finances-inquiry-7m0htfl0c
Then goes off on some loony rant about AI and crowd sizes.
https://youtu.be/NoHgWst1TKk?si=z1rS76zNAGK8MZik
Edit - also says anyone who lies about crowd sizes will lie about anything and do anything to win an election including cheat.
He doesn't do irony, does he?
But OTOH we need to remember that lawyers can afford to do it because they are all rich £$%^&*&*s
Its now crystal clear that ditching Biden for Harris has transformed the election. The Veep picks on both sides further drives the Harris up Trump down momentum.
With an indifferent you owe me Democrat candidate (*cough* Hillary) there would be room for Trump to work away under the surface. But now? Trump is widely reported to have gone postal - you made me pick the wrong Veep, the Dems have done a coup by replacing Biden etc etc.
As Trump goes publicly bonkers we will see the gap widen more. Easy for people to get caught up with Trumpism when the alternative is awful. But when the alternative is sane and credible and openly laughing at Trumpism - and getting people to laugh with them - its much harder to cling to the crook.
What can Trump do to turn this around? Realistically?
The offered cash out on Harris as President on my £30 bet has now increased to £5.56 profit, when it was down at about £4.50 recently.
Some say Dems have a 'tough map this year'. Which is kind of true. But the truth is the whole Senate map of 50 states is tough for the Dems. There are simply more red states than blue states. And as the phenomenon of Dem senators in red states slowly disappears, it's going to be very hard for the Dems to get a Senate majority in any election where the national vote is close-ish.
Or does it say nice things about your NMSEP?
Trump 2.0 would be so over.
Whether Trump has the self discipline and indeed the intellect to do this effectively is open to doubt. The debate is one such opportunity. He needs to maximise this and look for others. Hopefully, he will continue to witter about irrelevancies.
The latter would be a purple state, but a purple one they could win in a good year.
Do you expect it to reach Court? Or be dropped at the door?
From my prior experiences and discussion with the police, the tactic is to wait as long as possible before pleading guilty, on the basis that witnesses or the PFO will give up after four years.
If it does go to trial, I have no idea the outcome.
Democrat convention next, which I expect will be a show of unity and slick, giving a further polling boost. Then debates, where Trump is at a disadvantage given his age. And onto the campaign itself, where Harris can significantly outspend Trump.
Plenty of time for things to change, but the dynamics of the race are all pointing in one direction.
And there’s a non-negligible chance that the man himself could be in prison by November 5.
His other BIG problem is that when he talks about the economy, the border or crime he drools on about what he did in the past with zero detail / massive lies and then pivots straight onto conspiracy crap about the steal or insano shit about Sharks.
He doesn't have the ability to do the punchy one-liner on policy. Its ALWAYS about him, or about abusing his opponents. Every single time. Forget "Its the Economy, Stupid". Trump does "Sleepin Joe" "Crooked Hillary" "Stop the Steal". Which are all about him, especially the abuse of others ones.
The democrats didn't know how to deal with him. And thanks to Walz they appear to have decided to laugh at him. And as people stop chanting and hear people laughing at him - at them - and start to think, they realise there is a lot to laugh at. Hence the massive swings we're now seeing.
They're laughing at how stupid he is. How does he turn that around?
The Democrats had a simple majority at the start of Biden's Presidency, they could have pushed this through then if they wanted to.
Unfortunately, Trump 2024 is showing signs of the sort of cognitive decline that often afflicts the elderly, and is having to run much more on underlying instinct and personality.
And DJT's underlying personality is horrible to behold.
If he's let off, then Walz will be touring the country commenting on how judges let off their mates while shitting all over Middle America. Them and us, with Trump firmly in the Them column. Which would not be good for him.
But I can't see how the civil lawsuits (also I think with appeals due next month?) are going to be anything other than a major disaster for him.
Former UF president Sasse channeled millions to GOP allies, secretive contracts
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/education/article291042070.html
In his 17-month stint as UF president, Ben Sasse more than tripled his office’s spending, directing millions in university funds into secretive consulting contracts and high-paying positions for his GOP allies.
Sasse ballooned spending under the president’s office to $17.3 million in his first year in office — up from $5.6 million in former UF President Kent Fuchs’ last year, according to publicly available administrative budget data.
A majority of the spending surge was driven by lucrative contracts with big-name consulting firms and high-salaried, remote positions for Sasse’s former U.S. Senate staff and Republican officials.
Sasse’s consulting contracts have been kept largely under wraps, leaving the public in the dark about what the contracted firms did to earn their fees. The university also declined to clarify specific duties carried out by Sasse’s ex-Senate staff, several of whom were salaried as presidential advisers.
The university said Sasse’s budget expansion went through the “appropriate approval process” but did not answer questions about how Sasse bankrolled his splurges, where the funds originated or who authorized the spending.
Sasse, 52, who started at UF in February 2023 and resigned in July, had an annual base salary of $1 million and a performance bonus of up to $150,000, records show.
Amid protests over his conservative track record as a Nebraska Republican senator, Sasse promised during his ascension to the UF presidency in fall 2022 that he would divorce himself from partisan politics under what he called a vow of “political celibacy.”
But the senator-turned-university president quietly broke that promise in his 17-month term at the university’s helm, hiring six ex-Senate staffers and two former Republican officials to high-paying, remote jobs at the university.
Under Sasse’s administration, two of his former Senate staffers — Raymond Sass and James Wegmann — were among the highest-ranking and highest-paid officials at UF. Both worked remotely from the D.C. area, roughly 800 miles from UF’s main campus in Gainesville.
Sass, Sasse’s former Senate chief of staff, was UF’s vice president for innovation and partnerships — a position that didn’t exist under previous administrations. His starting salary at UF was $396,000, more than double the $181,677 he made on Capitol Hill...
Hope that's not a precursor to you having an unfortunate accident.
But it's a good thing for now.
And Trump's had his eight years - only the first four as President but the last four years have been about him as much as anyone.
Too many people have had too much Trump and don't want anymore.
https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1823808606992507022?s=12
Headline figures:
Harris 46%
Trump 45%
Kennedy 7%
Others 1%
And Trump has spent about 100 million fundraised dollars in legal fees over 3 years, and claimed to have raised 141 million just in the month of May, so not sure it's going to make that significant dent.
And does Harris have more money than Trump? I'm not sure that's true, but I hope you are right.
On topic, Harris seems to be bringing North Carolina into her sphere of influence. Bad news for Donald as it undoes him winning Arizona and Nevada. (Not that he was going to win Nevada. Nor in all likelihood, Arizona.)
Waiting for the post-Conference numbers from Texas and especially Florida. Florida to Toss Up will cause Trump a funding headache. How much of his limited war chest does he invest in keeping Florida in his camp? If he loses it, game over. But the rust belt is going to require some big spends. He is already pouring money into Pennsylvania, where Harris is moving ahead regardless.
Tough times for Trump.
Heh.
She is not being tested by the press or media. She is not being scrutinised. He policy platform is not being tested.
But while Trump is making so many unforced errors then why should she. Just leave him to keep on making mistakes.
For some, identity politics is now the most important thing in the historical record and, if an individual in the past had one at odds with the values of today, then that trumps all other history, and it must be preached.
It's quite odd when you think about it, but it does very much reflect our times.
Which would be an interesting dynamic to the November vote. "Do you think Donald Trump should serve time in prison? Vote Democrat for yes, Republican for no..."
Donald Trump doesn't...
The post contributes to causing fear for sections of our society who are to be respected, are more vulnerable, and have a right not to be targeted. She was also reacting *against* the positive response of the local community.
For the sentence those contribute to the need to make it exemplary and a deterrent. Plus there are multiple aggravating factors.
We have had social media for 20 years, and we all know how things go viral. It is basic that we should not to react without thinking. Yes we've all done it, but most of us know that to call for people to be blown up or burnt alive is a *touch* unacceptable.
We also had very similar events, and provocations, and sentences, in the London and copycat riots in 2011.
IMO it had to be custodial. 15 months too much? I'm really not sure, perhaps I would say 6-9 months. They don't have much experience of sentencing yet, as that Act was only passed in the last year by the last Government.
The Telegraph report is quite good on the detail: https://archive.ph/K7YWm#selection-3545.79-3545.147
Here are the videoed sentencing remarks by a Judge on another "keyboard warrior" case, who had a previous criminal record, and made more substantive posts. He got 20 months:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xelrwm7fS_k
Plus, IIRC the supermajority (60) is still required for some things - such as the state votes.
*nearly always anyway. I’m a seal of course. Sometimes also I wonder that a few on here are not AI hallucinations**
**I think that is the first time I’ve written or typed that word. Took me three attempts to spell it right.
The son of the late former US attorney general launched his third party presidential bid last October and surprised many pundits by securing double-digits in some polls of the 2024 White House race.
His support has fallen dramatically since Joe Biden withdrew from the race and Ms Harris replaced the president at the top of the Democratic ticket.
Mr Kennedy, 70, sought a meeting with Ms Harris, 59, last week to discuss the possibility of backing her campaign in exchange for a high-level position in her administration should she win, his campaign aides told the Washington Post and CNN.
Ms Harris and her advisers did not take up the offer to meet and have shown no interest in the proposal, which Mr Kennedy called a “strategic mistake”.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/08/15/robert-f-kennedy-endorse-kamala-harris-cabinet-us-election/
Does "cited" in Scotland mean you are a witness, or up before the beak?
I think it means in the dock, but Scotland, and especially its legal system, is a .. er .. "faraway country of which some of us know little" (allegedly).
I'm not asking for gruesome details.
Reality is anything going over 6 months will be shifted to a crown court.
The reason why so many cases are being sentenced so quickly is that Liverpool (and some other courts) have magistrate and crown courts in the same building and the offences are so serious that sentencing reports for mitigation are not required.
So if someone pleads guilty the cases are being processed quickly is because there are no factors that delay very quick setencing.
"2024 Generic Congressional Vote Polls | RealClearPolling" https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/2024/generic-congressional-vote
Yeah - they are *charging* people with more serious offences. Which is why they are going to crown court, and getting guilty pleas. The lawyers will be telling the clients that a) the offences can’t be disputed (mostly) and b) that the heavy charging means that the sentences can get big.
What has changed is the severity of the offences being charged. If they started handing out sentences outside the guidelines, those would be reduced on appeal, almost automatically.
In normal times, the *charges* are often much less than the offence could justify.
One of those theoretical-but-almost-never-happens deals.
Is one of our American posters keen to do a thread?