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The betting (and polling) seem to be headed in one direction for the moment – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    Ooh, the French girl missed that gold by a hundredth.
  • TimS said:

    Interesting use of “public transport” to describe the narrow gauge railway.

    Of course it’s public transport, as are cable cars in the alps, or aeroplanes. But we tend to think of public transport as being stuff people take to get to and from the mundane daily grind.

    Plenty of people proudly state they don’t use public transport yet spend half their lives in airports.

    Where do we draw the line? I’d say between scheduled and charter services. So for example Brittany Ferries to Santander is public transport, but a cruise around the med isn’t.
    The Welsh Highland and Ffestiniog Railway provide an amazing tourist attraction but also act as public transport to the towns and villages they pass through from March to October
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    Stereodog said:

    Using the old cliche of the lottery of life, the problem is that our postindustrial society has scrapped all of the smaller prizes and concentrated the pay outs into a smaller range of big jackpots. It used to be if your circumstances, intelligence, willpower or whatever (not here to make the argument as to which is more important) weren't sufficient to win you the big prize of a white collar professional job then at least there were other jobs you could get that would give you security and a decent living. What are today's equivalent of Starmer pere's toolmaking or panel fitting in a car factory?
    There's actually a large a growing market for manual skills combined with brain work. The carpenter/cabinet maker who can measure up and room, design and custom make shelves. Things like that - good money in it.

    There is a growing market in striping, respraying and reworking old wood furniture. Both onsite in people's homes and at workshops.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,726
    edited August 2024

    For fifty years my grandad walked to his workplace, walked to his local pub, walked to his local shop, walked to the local shop, walked to see his relatives. It was a limited life.

    How many people can or want to live like that now ?

    This is the era of commuters - for work, for shopping, for education, for entertainment, for family.

    One thing I would suggest would reduce congestion is more flexible hours - working from home is an aspect of this.
    How is that a limited life? Sounds great. It's my life right now. And according to polls, a large majority want to live like this too. (Add doctors, pharmacy, dentist, bakery, community garden, church, and 4 more pubs).

    I use my car at the weekends to visit family or to head to the hills (and even then I'll use the train if possible, so I can post on PB on the way to Corrour station). My partner uses it when there isn't a late train back from whatever regional hospital the NHS have sent her too.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430

    I remember one of your visitors from Moscow tried this line a while back.

    JD Vance tells Steve Bannon today that people in Washington want to cut Social Security benefits to then give that money to Ukraine so Zelensky’s ministers can buy yachts.

    https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1734288605751734631

    I recall the comedy of the "Zelensky Palace" - a picture stolen from an advert in Monaco (or similar).

    The funniest bit was that it was smaller than the kind of house a really junior US Congressman would have.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,766
    edited August 2024

    Nothing in life is entirely certain, but the human brain takes certain things for granted. People who have been told that there are two opposing theories explaining the origin of Covid-19, leaking from a lab 300m away from the first outbreak, which was studying how to make bat viruses deadlier and more transmissible, or an accident of evolution in a wet market, coincidentally doing exactly the same work as the lab, in a freak accident. We all know which one we believe. There are none of us on here stupid enough to believe the second explanation. It's a silly pretence.
    Except that isn't remotely an accurate summary of the evidence as we know it. I deal with facts on these things precisely because there is no belief. Either COVID originated in the lab or it didn't. It originated in a market or it didn't. What you and I believe has no bearing.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,421

    Nothing in life is entirely certain, but the human brain takes certain things for granted. People who have been told that there are two opposing theories explaining the origin of Covid-19, leaking from a lab 300m away from the first outbreak, which was studying how to make bat viruses deadlier and more transmissible, or an accident of evolution in a wet market, coincidentally doing exactly the same work as the lab, in a freak accident. We all know which one we believe. There are none of us on here stupid enough to believe the second explanation. It's a silly pretence.
    As a bit of a thought experiment, triggered by your comment “people who have been told there are two opposing theories”, what might a third origin theory be?

    All I can think of are:

    - deliberate act of bio-terrorism
    - Pre-existing human coronavirus that mutated without help from animals
    - It was actually a lab leak somewhere else. By sheer coincidence the first infected person travelled to Wuhan and spread it there

    For what it’s worth I’ve always thought it was a lab leak. Occam’s razor and all that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,401
    edited August 2024
    DougSeal said:

    Norwich lose. On the eve of what promises to be a very long and difficult season for Ipswich I’ll take what I can get.

    I am 100% confident that Leicester will be the strongest team in the Premier League, like Atlas we will be the base holding up the division.

    We are skint, face a points deduction, have lost more and better players than we have signed and have a useless manager who has had a disaster of a pre-season. Our fans will be restive from the off. As far as I can discern the plan is to bank the TV money, take a Truss like beating and get relegated but be solvent.

    So Ipswich will at least be 19th, and probably significantly higher.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,501
    TimS said:

    Interesting use of “public transport” to describe the narrow gauge railway.

    Of course it’s public transport, as are cable cars in the alps, or aeroplanes. But we tend to think of public transport as being stuff people take to get to and from the mundane daily grind.

    Plenty of people proudly state they don’t use public transport yet spend half their lives in airports.

    Where do we draw the line? I’d say between scheduled and charter services. So for example Brittany Ferries to Santander is public transport, but a cruise around the med isn’t.
    The more imaginative the mode of public transport the better.
  • I am not suggesting targeted road building is stopped, but added value must be considered. I would be more than happy to see the M4 divert south of Newport but more roads encourage more traffic. You could build half a dozen concentric motorways around London and in ten years they would be full. Rail for passengers and freight should be the focus. By passes are so 1970s and if you want local retail businesses to struggle, stick a by pass around a town so no one stops.

    If journeys are less than ten miles take the bus or an electric bike!

    I like the way you have craftily linked a gridlocked road network with immigration. Nice trick!

    Why would I want to use a bus or an electric bike when I have an electric car ?

    Local retail is going to continue to decline - people prefer supermarkets and the internet.

    More people, more congestion. Transport, housing, public services the same applies. If demand rises quicker than supply then pressures on usage occur.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,421

    The more imaginative the mode of public transport the better.
    It’s a real shame we don’t have scheduled airship journeys anymore.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 770

    There's actually a large a growing market for manual skills combined with brain work. The carpenter/cabinet maker who can measure up and room, design and custom make shelves. Things like that - good money in it.

    There is a growing market in striping, respraying and reworking old wood furniture. Both onsite in people's homes and at workshops.
    Those are good examples and of course there are still plenty of skilled manual jobs out there that earn good money. That recent South Park episode about plumbers illustrates that point nicely. As things stand though it's nowhere near the amount of skilled manual work that used to be available prior to the early 80s. It's why I think it's very difficult to do anything for that bottom 10 to 15 percent. If the jobs aren't there then there is only so much a government can do.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639
    Foxy said:

    I am 100% confident that Leicester will be the strongest team in the Premier League, like Atlas we will be the base holding up the division.

    We are skint, face a points deduction, have lost more and better players than we have signed and have a useless manager who has had a disaster of a pre-season. Our fans will be restive from the off. As far as I can discern the plan is to bank the TV money, take a Truss like beating and get relegated but be solvent.

    So Ipswich will at least be 19th, and probably significantly higher.

    We have, thankfully, become and very well run and coached club but this promotion simply came too soon. And relying on other clubs’ points deductions just seems…wrong. I’m genuinely sorry to hear about Leicester’s travails.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,501

    Why would I want to use a bus or an electric bike when I have an electric car ?

    Local retail is going to continue to decline - people prefer supermarkets and the internet.

    More people, more congestion. Transport, housing, public services the same applies. If demand rises quicker than supply then pressures on usage occur.
    Because an electric car has no discernible benefit over an ICE car in a traffic jam.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,586

    The more imaginative the mode of public transport the better.
    That Landmark Trust cottage I mentioned the other day - ten minute walk from the car parking area or dropped outside the door by the Ffestiniog train ...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    Stereodog said:

    Those are good examples and of course there are still plenty of skilled manual jobs out there that earn good money. That recent South Park episode about plumbers illustrates that point nicely. As things stand though it's nowhere near the amount of skilled manual work that used to be available prior to the early 80s. It's why I think it's very difficult to do anything for that bottom 10 to 15 percent. If the jobs aren't there then there is only so much a government can do.
    There are tons of such jobs going begging for people. Get a CORGI gas certificate
    and become a plumber. I've never heard of a plumber doing other than turning work away.

    There is *more* skilled work than the 80s - but it's a combination of manual skill and brain power required, rather than just dumbly repeat operation X on a manual lathe day after day.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639
    TimS said:

    It’s a real shame we don’t have scheduled airship journeys anymore.
    During the pandemic I got addicted to the city building game Cities Skylines which allows you to introduce a scheduled blimp service as a public transport option.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    How many of us do the occasional 5k run in half an hour, without realising that it can be done in well under 13 minutes?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,501
    TimS said:

    It’s a real shame we don’t have scheduled airship journeys anymore.
    We have water taxis in Cardiff Bay. Not so sure about reinstating the Hindenburg.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,726

    Why would I want to use a bus or an electric bike when I have an electric car ?

    Local retail is going to continue to decline - people prefer supermarkets and the internet.

    More people, more congestion. Transport, housing, public services the same applies. If demand rises quicker than supply then pressures on usage occur.
    That's exactly the problem - it's a classic case of tragedy of the commons. As people have become richer and driving cheaper, driving has become relatively more attractive than other options and thus our cities and towns have become clogged up.

    This is a massive burden the economy, particularly with delays to commercial traffic. A double decker bus at rush hour can take about 80 cars off the road (and out of parking spaces), but bus services have been halved over the last 14 years.

    My local retail is doing brilliantly because people can actually get to the High Street via bus, cycling, walking and tram.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,421

    Why would I want to use a bus or an electric bike when I have an electric car ?

    Local retail is going to continue to decline - people prefer supermarkets and the internet.

    More people, more congestion. Transport, housing, public services the same applies. If demand rises quicker than supply then pressures on usage occur.
    Not in inner London (or I imagine the metropolitan cores of several other cities). People in different places have different lives. Here local independent retail has rebounded in the last decade. People shop for their daily needs, rather than doing the weekly shop as they used to in the 80s and 90s.

    I did a school geography project back in about 1991 about the hollowing out of Rugby town centre and the rise of out of town shopping. It was already a thing back then. Thankfully we did t take things as far as the US.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,817
    TimS said:

    It’s a real shame we don’t have scheduled airship journeys anymore.
    Especially as we have no shortage of hot air on environmental matters.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164
    TimS said:

    It’s a real shame we don’t have scheduled airship journeys anymore.
    There’s a serious school of (business) thought that airship could compete with, or even replace, the international cruise ship leisure market.
    Makes sense to me.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430

    Because an electric car has no discernible benefit over an ICE car in a traffic jam.
    Actually, it does - the slower an electric car goes it becomes more efficient. There have been some road tests/competitions in Australia of getting insane miles per charge by crawling along.

    Electric cars are also ideal for frequent stop/start driving.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,766
    edited August 2024
    TimS said:

    As a bit of a thought experiment, triggered by your comment “people who have been told there are two opposing theories”, what might a third origin theory be?

    All I can think of are:

    - deliberate act of bio-terrorism
    - Pre-existing human coronavirus that mutated without help from animals
    - It was actually a lab leak somewhere else. By sheer coincidence the first infected person travelled to Wuhan and spread it there

    For what it’s worth I’ve always thought it was a lab leak. Occam’s razor and all that.
    A possible third explanation is that the virus didn't start in Wuhan at all and was brought there by a traveller. The evidence for a zoonosis, probably market origin is compelling on my assessment
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,421
    edited August 2024

    We have water taxis in Cardiff Bay. Not so sure about reinstating the Hindenburg.
    That, in essence, is the problem. They don’t need to be filled with hydrogen but that one disaster wiped out an entire industry. Imagine if plane crashes had that effect on aviation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164

    Because an electric car has no discernible benefit over an ICE car in a traffic jam.
    In terms of energy usage, it certainly does.
  • Foxy said:

    I am 100% confident that Leicester will be the strongest team in the Premier League, like Atlas we will be the base holding up the division.

    We are skint, face a points deduction, have lost more and better players than we have signed and have a useless manager who has had a disaster of a pre-season. Our fans will be restive from the off. As far as I can discern the plan is to bank the TV money, take a Truss like beating and get relegated but be solvent.

    So Ipswich will at least be 19th, and probably significantly higher.

    Cooper is a decent manager. Might not be enough of course.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,726
    DougSeal said:

    During the pandemic I got addicted to the city building game Cities Skylines which allows you to introduce a scheduled blimp service as a public transport option.
    I have (checks steam) an embarrassing number of hours playing it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    Nigelb said:

    There’s a serious school of (business) thought that airship could compete with, or even replace, the international cruise ship leisure market.
    Makes sense to me.
    Airships are very, very power inefficient. They cruise at low altitudes, fighting the winds and requiring more fuel per passenger mile than a jet.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,005
    TimS said:

    As a bit of a thought experiment, triggered by your comment “people who have been told there are two opposing theories”, what might a third origin theory be?

    All I can think of are:

    - deliberate act of bio-terrorism
    - Pre-existing human coronavirus that mutated without help from animals
    - It was actually a lab leak somewhere else. By sheer coincidence the first infected person travelled to Wuhan and spread it there

    For what it’s worth I’ve always thought it was a lab leak. Occam’s razor and all that.
    Previous outbreaks of similar diseases came from animals
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,586

    We have water taxis in Cardiff Bay. Not so sure about reinstating the Hindenburg.
    I think they had one in London - from somewhere like Somerset House to Greenwich or Woolwich - about 20-30 years ago. Didn't do well. I wonde rhow it would do with all the new houses down river, eg at the Arsenal, or are they all empty investment flats?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,726

    Actually, it does - the slower an electric car goes it becomes more efficient. There have been some road tests/competitions in Australia of getting insane miles per charge by crawling along.

    Electric cars are also ideal for frequent stop/start driving.
    That would be an interesting advert. "Perfect for crawling along at 10mph!"

    *Cyclist whizzes past*
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,401
    edited August 2024

    There's a variant of the meritocracy - defended from the Left.

    In Hampstead, for example, there is a group who are oh so proud that their children attend the local school. Good luck getting into that school unless you happen to live in a house that costs more than a million. There aren't any for miles. Though the servants of the really rich live in, so their children get to go. So there's that.

    You also see in media and arts a ferocious system of cronyism - starter jobs are now paid and mostly go to the scions of other families In The Thing.

    Ironically, in the City, such practises have largely been banned. After a period of degree credentialism (couldn't get a job sorting post in a bank without a degree) - apprenticeships are coming in.

    I caused an upset at a recent meeting on inclusion though. I pointed out the gaps in the proudly displayed slide of about 20 social and ethnic groups that inclusion team had found in the bank....
    Certainly so. The media and arts are some of the least meritocratic sectors of society.

    It may be true of The City, and is certainly true of my profession that we make conscious efforts to recruit unrecognised talent (with plenty of squealing from the privately educated when we do).

    That though is very much the approach of my second link, and why it fails to tackle the real inequality at the bottom. The problem isn't Johnny with only BBB in his A levels, it is those that have no GCSEs at all.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,817

    Airships are very, very power inefficient. They cruise at low altitudes, fighting the winds and requiring more fuel per passenger mile than a jet.
    They are also rather fragile. Even ignoring the unfortunate incidents involving R38, R101, the Shenandoah and the Hindenburg, R100 suffered so many tears to its outer cover that they had to carry enough patches to make a spare one.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,586
    Eabhal said:

    That would be an interesting advert. "Perfect for crawling along at 10mph!"

    *Cyclist whizzes past*
    If the roads are that congested then you need to ban or inflict a congestion charge on the EVs anyway and make the owners take the bus.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164
    This is emblematic of Trump coverage.

    We literally have NO FUCKING CLUE what the terms of the GOP candidate's sweetheart deal with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is. NO FUCKING CLUE.

    Why are we letting Trump distract everyone with a tantrum about whether Willie Brown was on his plane or his helicopter 40 years ago?

    https://x.com/emptywheel/status/1822325309724635213
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,726
    Carnyx said:

    I think they had one in London - from somewhere like Somerset House to Greenwich or Woolwich - about 20-30 years ago. Didn't do well. I wonde rhow it would do with all the new houses down river, eg at the Arsenal, or are they all empty investment flats?
    You can commute by boat in London. It's great fun (did it for 3 weeks, surprising volume of wildlife!)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,200
    edited August 2024
    The NYT swing state polls are good for Harris but Insider Advantage (taken Tuesday - Thursday) is more mixed and Trafalgar (taken Tuesday-Thursday) has Trump ahead in 3 swing states.

    Insider Advantage

    Wisconsin Trump 49% Harris 48%

    Michigan Harris 49% Trump 47%


    Trafalgar

    North Carolina Trump 49% Harris 45%

    Nevada Trump 48% Harris 45%

    Pennsylvania Trump 46% Harris 44%

    Arizona Trump 48% Harris 47%
    https://pollingplus.com/news/pollingplus-exclusive-top-two-p
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,401
    edited August 2024
    DougSeal said:

    We have, thankfully, become and very well run and coached club but this promotion simply came too soon. And relying on other clubs’ points deductions just seems…wrong. I’m genuinely sorry to hear about Leicester’s travails.
    Enjoy your time in the sun! 🌞

    Supporting Leicester has always been a wild ride, but we always bounce back. Neither victory nor defeat are ever permanent.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164
    Funny to realize that there are more people employed in the automotive industry in the 10m Czechia (150k directly + more in attached supply chains) than in Ohio, Michigan, California, and Alabama combined
    https://x.com/Habsburguista/status/1822320528566235303
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,586
    Eabhal said:

    You can commute by boat in London. It's great fun (did it for 3 weeks, surprising volume of wildlife!)
    Ooh, so one can.

    https://www.thamesclippers.com/plan-your-journey/route-map

    Pity the Artillery Museum is now closed ...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,421

    Previous outbreaks of similar diseases came from animals
    As, probably, did this. But they may have been animals in a lab in Wuhan.

    Only a few years ago we had a foot and mouth epidemic caused by a lab leak in Porton Down. That, and other examples, plus the coincidence the outbreak started in that one particular city, plus the very powerful factors weighing against any likelihood of honesty by the CCP if this were a leak.

    I’m not convinced it was a leak, what would I know, but I’m certainly not convinced it was zoonotic.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    Actually, it does - the slower an electric car goes it becomes more efficient. There have been some road tests/competitions in Australia of getting insane miles per charge by crawling along.

    Electric cars are also ideal for frequent stop/start driving.
    Stop/start city driving is exactly where you’d want an electric car, it’s brilliant at doing slow driving.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,726
    Carnyx said:

    If the roads are that congested then you need to ban or inflict a congestion charge on the EVs anyway and make the owners take the bus.
    Average speeds in London, 7am to 7pm - 8mph in central, 12mph inner, 20mph outer.
  • Because an electric car has no discernible benefit over an ICE car in a traffic jam.
    Unless its raining or if I want to listen to the radio.

    I'd also settle for all the other benefits in exchange for the five minutes a week I tend to spend in traffic jams.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639
    edited August 2024
    HYUFD said:

    The NYT swing state polls are good for Harris but Insider Advantage (taken Tuesday - Thursday) is more mixed and Trafalgar (taken Tuesday-Thursday) has Trump ahead in 3 swing states.

    Insider Advantage

    Wisconsin Trump 49% Harris 48%

    Michigan Harris 49% Trump 47%


    Trafalgar

    North Carolina Trump 49% Harris 45%

    Nevada Trump 48% Harris 45%

    Pennsylvania Trump 46% Harris 44%

    Arizona Trump 48% Harris 47%
    https://pollingplus.com/news/pollingplus-exclusive-top-two-p

    HYUFD and Trafalgar. Quadrennial love story. I refer to my earlier post today.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4929475#Comment_4929475
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    Did the Kenyans not think that Ingebrigtsen could run the last lap quickly?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164

    Airships are very, very power inefficient. They cruise at low altitudes, fighting the winds and requiring more fuel per passenger mile than a jet.
    Leisure market.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,394

    The thing is, I reckon that there's a method in Musk's nastiness.

    Musk wants Trump/GOP to win. He's made that clear. Whether that is because a deal has been done, or he likes their anti-woman policies (*), or some other thing, I don't know. But there is a chance that the Dems might win, and that might be bad for him if he has attacked them too much.

    So instead of fully attacking them head-on, he's attacking a newly-elected leftish government in a country with close social and historic links to the USA - us. We are an exemplar for the USA, with a left government. And we are powerless to stop him trashing our reputation.

    And make no mistake: he is harming the UK.

    (*) He thinks the US should have a billion people in it, likes people to have large families, and is rabidly anti-immigration (except for him and his buds, of course). It's hard to square these without thinking he wants women to be baby-making machines - and the GOP's current policies are heading that way.
    I think you're right.

    Being fundamentally ignorant of, and uninterested in, foreign countries, Americans are only capable of thinking about foreign political debates in American terms, despite very different national contexts making those thoughts completely irrelevant. They make arguments about foreign politics to score points in American political debates.

    You saw it on the American Left with the New York Times and Brexit - they conflated Brexit with Donald Trump, and being vehemently against the latter, had to discredit the former, so argue that nothing good has happened in the UK since 2016, even though the two are very tenuously connected if at all.

    Now you see it on the Right with Musk, Vance, Trump, etc., arguing that this country is about to become an Islamist dictatorship with no free speech to discredit the Democrats in the current electoral cycle.

    But of course in both cases they are saying more about America's staggering ignorance, insularity and shallowness than they are about us. Like small children, ignore them and eventually they'll shut up.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639
    Carnyx said:

    Ooh, so one can.

    https://www.thamesclippers.com/plan-your-journey/route-map

    Pity the Artillery Museum is now closed ...
    I’m took it a few times when I lived in Greenwich but only when there were problems on the line into London Bridge and/or the DLR.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164
    ydoethur said:

    They are also rather fragile. Even ignoring the unfortunate incidents involving R38, R101, the Shenandoah and the Hindenburg, R100 suffered so many tears to its outer cover that they had to carry enough patches to make a spare one.
    That’s the technology of almost a century ago, though.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    edited August 2024
    Bronze for Georgia Bell in the 1,500m, with a British record, as the Kenyan Kipyegon beats her own Olympic record to win the gold.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,052
    .
    TimS said:

    As a bit of a thought experiment, triggered by your comment “people who have been told there are two opposing theories”, what might a third origin theory be?

    All I can think of are:

    - deliberate act of bio-terrorism
    - Pre-existing human coronavirus that mutated without help from animals
    - It was actually a lab leak somewhere else. By sheer coincidence the first infected person travelled to Wuhan and spread it there

    For what it’s worth I’ve always thought it was a lab leak. Occam’s razor and all that.
    Nearly every outbreak of a novel infectious disease in humans has been originally from zoonosis. (Lab leaks have occurred, but have only involved previously known pathogens and have usually been small in scale, although the 1977 Russian flu was widespread, albeit still not that clear what happened in that case.) We’d had a novel coronavirus coming into humans from zoonosis in 2012 with MERS, and in 2002 with SARS. (There’d also been swine acute diarrhea syndrome coronavirus, which appeared in pigs in 2017, having come from bats.) Occam’s razor, or call it a Bayesian prior, would imply that COVID-19 was the same.

    There have been conspiracy theories about laboratory leaks as the cause for numerous prior disease outbreaks (e.g., AIDS, swine flu, SARS). The next pandemic will probably be zoonotic and there will be some people claiming it’s from a laboratory leak.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953
    Eabhal said:

    I have (checks steam) an embarrassing number of hours playing it.
    Workers and Resources: Soviet Republic is an even nerdier micromanagement sim if Cities Skylines floats your boat. Sort of somewhere between Cities Skylines and the old Transport Tycoon games (which is now free to play as OpenTTD if you fancy some 90s nostalgia!).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558

    We have water taxis in Cardiff Bay. Not so sure about reinstating the Hindenburg.

    We have water taxis in Cardiff Bay. Not so sure about reinstating the Hindenburg.
    Also on the Aire in Leeds. They used to be free, but alas no more.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    Carnyx said:

    I think they had one in London - from somewhere like Somerset House to Greenwich or Woolwich - about 20-30 years ago. Didn't do well. I wonde rhow it would do with all the new houses down river, eg at the Arsenal, or are they all empty investment flats?
    Thames Clippers - bought by Uber. https://www.thamesclippers.com

    The boats are interesting - a catamaran hull with the outside relatively flat, and all the curve on the inside. So all the water displacement is between the hulls and hits each other and kind of cancels out about 80% of the wake. Which means they can go quite fast without causing big waves.

    Very good service. Should be ripe for electrification - the noise of the diesels is annoying.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    Nigelb said:

    That’s the technology of almost a century ago, though.
    Airships are playings of the wind. Which is the ultimate destroyer of airships.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558
    ydoethur said:

    They are also rather fragile. Even ignoring the unfortunate incidents involving R38, R101, the Shenandoah and the Hindenburg, R100 suffered so many tears to its outer cover that they had to carry enough patches to make a spare one.
    The Airship of Theseus.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,726
    kyf_100 said:

    Workers and Resources: Soviet Republic is an even nerdier micromanagement sim if Cities Skylines floats your boat. Sort of somewhere between Cities Skylines and the old Transport Tycoon games (which is now free to play as OpenTTD if you fancy some 90s nostalgia!).
    That's been on my to-do list for a while but I'm going through a Rimworld phase
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    DougSeal said:

    I’m took it a few times when I lived in Greenwich but only when there were problems on the line into London Bridge and/or the DLR.
    When working at Canary Wharf, I used to treat myself on a summer Friday to the Clipper to Putney Bridge. Slower than the tube, but you are sitting outside, with a beer.

    Then go to the Vault at Putney Pies - sit by the river and have a few more beers....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430

    Thames Clippers - bought by Uber. https://www.thamesclippers.com

    The boats are interesting - a catamaran hull with the outside relatively flat, and all the curve on the inside. So all the water displacement is between the hulls and hits each other and kind of cancels out about 80% of the wake. Which means they can go quite fast without causing big waves.

    Very good service. Should be ripe for electrification - the noise of the diesels is annoying.
    EDIT: The boat design was Australian. They had a version in Sydney harbour that hit 50 knots. The problem was that you couldn't let people outside at those speeds.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,181
    ...

    .

    Nearly every outbreak of a novel infectious disease in humans has been originally from zoonosis. (Lab leaks have occurred, but have only involved previously known pathogens and have usually been small in scale, although the 1977 Russian flu was widespread, albeit still not that clear what happened in that case.) We’d had a novel coronavirus coming into humans from zoonosis in 2012 with MERS, and in 2002 with SARS. (There’d also been swine acute diarrhea syndrome coronavirus, which appeared in pigs in 2017, having come from bats.) Occam’s razor, or call it a Bayesian prior, would imply that COVID-19 was the same.

    There have been conspiracy theories about laboratory leaks as the cause for numerous prior disease outbreaks (e.g., AIDS, swine flu, SARS). The next pandemic will probably be zoonotic and there will be some people claiming it’s from a laboratory leak.
    Meaningless. There were not labs doing experiments on the exact same thing 300 metres away in the other cases - and going further back, such research wasn't even being conducted. I don't know why you prefer to make yourself look daft in this way - perhaps you have concerns about your employer. That's fine, but we cannot really debate unless we have a basis of a vaguely plausible take on the facts available.
  • Eabhal said:

    You can commute by boat in London. It's great fun (did it for 3 weeks, surprising volume of wildlife!)
    My daughter in law commutes by sea bus from North Vancouver to Vancouver every day she is working in Vancouver
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,242
    edited August 2024
    Sandpit said:

    How many of us do the occasional 5k run in half an hour, without realising that it can be done in well under 13 minutes?

    Well I've recently got down to under 19 minutes in my mid 30s weighing over 90kg, so it doesn't surprise me the best can do it running 1.5x my pace.

    At some point it must feel more like an extended sprint though!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558

    When working at Canary Wharf, I used to treat myself on a summer Friday to the Clipper to Putney Bridge. Slower than the tube, but you are sitting outside, with a beer.

    Then go to the Vault at Putney Pies - sit by the river and have a few more beers....
    I used the Thames Clipper once on a work trip to London when I was able to book the Doubletree at Chelsea Harbour for less than a Travelodge in town.

    A very pleasant way to commute.
  • HYUFD said:

    The NYT swing state polls are good for Harris but Insider Advantage (taken Tuesday - Thursday) is more mixed and Trafalgar (taken Tuesday-Thursday) has Trump ahead in 3 swing states.

    Insider Advantage

    Wisconsin Trump 49% Harris 48%

    Michigan Harris 49% Trump 47%


    Trafalgar

    North Carolina Trump 49% Harris 45%

    Nevada Trump 48% Harris 45%

    Pennsylvania Trump 46% Harris 44%

    Arizona Trump 48% Harris 47%
    https://pollingplus.com/news/pollingplus-exclusive-top-two-p

    I admire your loyalty to Trump but it is over for him and Harris wil be the next POTUS
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164

    Airships are playings of the wind. Which is the ultimate destroyer of airships.
    With kevlar envelopes, and solar cell wraps, they could cruise for months,
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,726
    Ratters said:

    Well I've recently got down to under 19 minutes in my mid 30s weighing over 90kg, so it doesn't surprise me the best can do it running 1.5x my pace.

    At some point it must feel more like an extended sprint though!
    Wow, well done! I'm working hard to get mine sub-20 again.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,181
    ...

    Airships are playings of the wind. Which is the ultimate destroyer of airships.
    Same is true of windmills.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,766
    .

    ...

    Meaningless. There were not labs doing experiments on the exact same thing 300 metres away in the other cases - and going further back, such research wasn't even being conducted. I don't know why you prefer to make yourself look daft in this way - perhaps you have concerns about your employer. That's fine, but we cannot really debate unless we have a basis of a vaguely plausible take on the facts available.
    To be clear there is zero evidence of labs working on the same virus in labs 300 metres away. Speculation yes; evidence none. If we don't get the facts right there's no point discussing this
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,858
    Ratters said:

    Well I've recently got down to under 19 minutes in my mid 30s weighing over 90kg, so it doesn't surprise me the best can do it running 1.5x my pace.

    At some point it must feel more like an extended sprint though!
    You're considerably faster than me! Then again, I've got a few years on you.

    I'm aiming to do about 27-28 mins for a 5K tomorrow, although after a little swim and run. :)

    Incidentally, under 19 mins would have had you in the top 3 or 4 at my last triathlon.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    Nigelb said:

    With kevlar envelopes, and solar cell wraps, they could cruise for months,
    Except they get smashed into the ground every now and again by the wind. Because they need to get near the ground to actually pickup/drop off passengers and cargo.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,242
    Stereodog said:

    Using the old cliche of the lottery of life, the problem is that our postindustrial society has scrapped all of the smaller prizes and concentrated the pay outs into a smaller range of big jackpots. It used to be if your circumstances, intelligence, willpower or whatever (not here to make the argument as to which is more important) weren't sufficient to win you the big prize of a white collar professional job then at least there were other jobs you could get that would give you security and a decent living. What are today's equivalent of Starmer pere's toolmaking or panel fitting in a car factory?
    I would have thought jobs in construction, plumbing, doing up people's homes etc are skilled jobs that can pay reasonably well and require very little formal education.

    What we need to do is make it easy for people to retrain into these skills, and not to bring in migrants as the first and last answer.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,181
    FF43 said:

    .

    To be clear there is zero evidence of labs working on the same virus in labs 300 metres away. Speculation yes; evidence none. If we don't get the facts right there's no point discussing this
    I don't actually want to discuss it - there's nothing more tiresome than discussing things with people who don't actually believe what they're peddling.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,296
    Nigelb said:

    With kevlar envelopes, and solar cell wraps, they could cruise for months,
    Or even years. I wonder if we'll get people pushing Skysteading to go along with Seasteding.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164

    Except they get smashed into the ground every now and again by the wind. Because they need to get near the ground to actually pickup/drop off passengers and cargo.
    With modern weather forecasting, not a problem.

    You’re mired in the last century.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164

    I don't actually want to discuss it - there's nothing more tiresome than discussing things with people who don't actually believe what they're peddling.
    Yes there is.
    Discussing stuff with true believers like yourself.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,766

    I don't actually want to discuss it - there's nothing more tiresome than discussing things with people who don't actually believe what they're peddling.
    Look if you can provide a shred of evidence for your claimed fact we can discuss it. Otherwise it doesn't exist. I repeat belief doesn't come into it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,046
    Nigelb said:

    With modern weather forecasting, not a problem.

    You’re mired in the last century.
    Modern weather forecasting?

    Still like astrology unless it's less than 72 hours in advance.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    High jump jump-off rules make no sense.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,200
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD and Trafalgar. Quadrennial love story. I refer to my earlier post today.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4929475#Comment_4929475
    That does not explain the Insider Advantage Trump poll lead in Wisconsin or the lead Trump still has in Arizona and Michigan in the RCP average.

    Of course in 2016 Trafalgar was right, the only pollster with Trump ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania
    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harrishttps://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/arizona/trump-vs-harris
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,808
    I'll tell you what makes no sense.
    Synchronised swimming on the radio.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,421

    Modern weather forecasting?

    Still like astrology unless it's less than 72 hours in advance.
    72 hours is plenty if you’re talking landing conditions for an airship.

    More than 72 hours isn’t astrology. There is incredible accuracy in the main global weather models now - same accuracy at 5 data as there was at 1 day in the 90s.

    My experience as a rather geeky model watcher several times daily is that there’s pretty good predictability of the synoptic pattern up to about 180 hours after which models start to diverge.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,415

    Build ladders

    I have a theory that a part of the problem is people for whom there isn't *progression*

    In times past, work your whole life at a job. Get pay rises, sure. Maybe, if you were ambitious, the foreman's job.

    The modern world sells the idea that you should be going *up*.

    So you have people, who are in jobs, but they aren't going to progress. So they do their work. What's next?

    There is also, as a part of this, a lot of people bumbling along on a mix of benefits and part time, poorly paid work. How are they ever going to retire? A pension that would pay for their rent is beyond them.
    Can I ask a simple question, what size pension pot do you think is sufficient to retire on?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    Nigelb said:

    With modern weather forecasting, not a problem.

    You’re mired in the last century.
    Nope - the problem is the lack of really still days in most places. A breeze that a light aircraft will laugh at will wreck an airship - it’s surface vs thrust that is the unfixable problem.

    You’ve got something the size of a large ship, which only weighs a small number of tons. The wind thrust on that cannot be countered by the engines at even quite low velocities.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,646

    I admire your loyalty to Trump but it is over for him and Harris wil be the next POTUS
    Astonishing levels of confidence BigG!!!

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,200
    Stereodog said:

    Using the old cliche of the lottery of life, the problem is that our postindustrial society has scrapped all of the smaller prizes and concentrated the pay outs into a smaller range of big jackpots. It used to be if your circumstances, intelligence, willpower or whatever (not here to make the argument as to which is more important) weren't sufficient to win you the big prize of a white collar professional job then at least there were other jobs you could get that would give you security and a decent living. What are today's equivalent of Starmer pere's toolmaking or panel fitting in a car factory?
    Getting a golden ticket to Love Island or being one of the rare few to make it as a Premier League Footballer? Or else being a plumber in London and the Home Counties
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    Pagan2 said:

    Can I ask a simple question, what size pension pot do you think is sufficient to retire on?
    One that can provide accommodation, food and bills. As a start.

    How are generation rent going to manage that?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,817
    dixiedean said:

    I'll tell you what makes no sense.
    Synchronised swimming on the radio.

    Did it make more or less sense than Hyufd's mangling of polling averages?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558

    Nope - the problem is the lack of really still days in most places. A breeze that a light aircraft will laugh at will wreck an airship - it’s surface vs thrust that is the unfixable problem.

    You’ve got something the size of a large ship, which only weighs a small number of tons. The wind thrust on that cannot be countered by the engines at even quite low velocities.
    Use helicopters to transfer passengers and supplies to the airship, then it can stay aloft.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    Bronze for GB in the 4x400m, the Americans had to run an OR to keep out the Botswans.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,808
    ydoethur said:

    Did it make more or less sense than Hyufd's mangling of polling averages?
    I switched off for that.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639
    HYUFD said:

    That does not explain the Insider Advantage Trump poll lead in Wisconsin or the lead Trump still has in Arizona and Michigan in the RCP average.

    Of course in 2016 Trafalgar was right, the only pollster with Trump ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania
    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harrishttps://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/arizona/trump-vs-harris
    It doesn’t try to explain anything. It just points out your inexplicable hard on for this one pollster. It’s for you and your therapist to explain.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,726

    Use helicopters to transfer passengers and supplies to the airship, then it can stay aloft.
    Or use one of these salmon cannon things, but for people:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2z3ZyGlqUkA
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    How big are these airships going to be to replace an Icon-class cruise ship? or even one of the boutique cruise ships with 400-500 passengers?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,394

    One that can provide accommodation, food and bills. As a start.

    How are generation rent going to manage that?
    They aren't - and they have zero reason to save so may as well live in the moment...
  • Astonishing levels of confidence BigG!!!

    Not really

    I am very confident that Harris not only has the momentum but Trump has nothing to offer

    Indeed I expect it to be similar to our GE where Starmer won with some ease
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,200
    edited August 2024
    DougSeal said:

    It doesn’t try to explain anything. It just points out your inexplicable hard on for this one pollster. It’s for you and your therapist to explain.
    RCP is multiple polls averaged (and their PA average poll includes the new NYT poll)
    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558
    eek said:

    They aren't - and they have zero reason to save so may as well live in the moment...
    Introducing a bit of Buddhist philosophy there I see.
This discussion has been closed.