The NYT swing state polls are good for Harris but Insider Advantage (taken Tuesday - Thursday) is more mixed and Trafalgar (taken Tuesday-Thursday) has Trump ahead in 3 swing states.
I admire your loyalty to Trump but it is over for him and Harris wil be the next POTUS
Astonishing levels of confidence BigG!!!
Not really
I am very confident that Harris not only has the momentum but Trump has nothing to offer
Indeed I expect it to be similar to our GE where Starmer won with some ease
Starmer had double digit poll leads consistently
At times the saying 'none so blind as those who cannot see' was invented for you
I always thought the expression was: "There are none so blind as those that will not see", i.e. those who refuse to see the evidence in front of them.
Which describes HYUFD perfectly in this case.
Singer Ray Stevens is given credit for writing the phrase 'there is none so blind as he who will not see ' in a line from the song 'everything is beautiful' which was released in 1970
British Author, John Heywood, in 1546 wrote:
'There are none so blind as those who will not see'
A hidden tracking tool in the website for Reform UK collected private browsing data about potentially millions of people, often without consent, and shared it with Facebook for use in targeted advertising.
An Observer investigation has found that people visiting the website for Nigel Farage’s anti-immigration party had details of their activity captured by a digital surveillance tool known as a Meta pixel.
The tracker – active in the run-up to the election, and as recently as last week – was triggered automatically on loading the Reform site, regardless of whether the person gave consent. It then sent a package of data to Facebook’s parent company, Meta, with details of which webpages had been viewed, when, and the buttons that were clicked.
In some cases, this included sensitive information that could reveal a person’s political beliefs, such as details of those accessing forms to become Reform UK members, linked to a unique Facebook user ID.
Evening pb. We've been to Bruges today. It restored my faith in tourist traps. It is unresevedly lovely. As indeed is much of North Belgium. Beer superb too.
Walz seems to cook like he can't wait any longer for diabetes and a stroke, but on the bullseye of Midwestern taste. Harris recipes sound more to my liking.
A hidden tracking tool in the website for Reform UK collected private browsing data about potentially millions of people, often without consent, and shared it with Facebook for use in targeted advertising.
An Observer investigation has found that people visiting the website for Nigel Farage’s anti-immigration party had details of their activity captured by a digital surveillance tool known as a Meta pixel.
The tracker – active in the run-up to the election, and as recently as last week – was triggered automatically on loading the Reform site, regardless of whether the person gave consent. It then sent a package of data to Facebook’s parent company, Meta, with details of which webpages had been viewed, when, and the buttons that were clicked.
In some cases, this included sensitive information that could reveal a person’s political beliefs, such as details of those accessing forms to become Reform UK members, linked to a unique Facebook user ID.
Note that the alleged polling firm called Trafalgar was definitely named in honor of Lord Nelson.
You can tell because of how it emulates one of his lordship's previous naval exploits, at Copenhagen . . . where in order to avoid obeying inconvient orders from the fleet admiral, Nelson famously held his spyglass up to his blind eye.
Evening pb. We've been to Bruges today. It restored my faith in tourist traps. It is unresevedly lovely. As indeed is much of North Belgium. Beer superb too.
Places which aren't ruined by their tourist trap status is a good category. Agree on Bruges. Not sure many will agree with me on Florence, but I nominate it anyway.
* Warns that leaving ECHR would be divisive and impractical. ‘It is a divisive policy at a time when we need to unite’
* Says ‘perception’ of two-tier policing risks undermining confidence
* Nigel Farage will never be allowed to join Tory party under her leadership
* Says record migration figures were justified in ‘context’ of pandemic and helping people from Afghanistan, Ukraine and Hong Kong
* Rejects suggestion she is right wing. ‘I just don’t think labels like that are relevant or helpful right now. We cannot keep on tacking left or right. I think that’s part of the reason why we’ve been in the mess we’ve been in’
Evening pb. We've been to Bruges today. It restored my faith in tourist traps. It is unresevedly lovely. As indeed is much of North Belgium. Beer superb too.
Evening pb. We've been to Bruges today. It restored my faith in tourist traps. It is unresevedly lovely. As indeed is much of North Belgium. Beer superb too.
Places which aren't ruined by their tourist trap status is a good category. Agree on Bruges. Not sure many will agree with me on Florence, but I nominate it anyway.
I had a particularly good experience of Florence when I went in February about 20 years ago, so would agree with you, though I understand it's a more challenging experience in the summer.
* Warns that leaving ECHR would be divisive and impractical. ‘It is a divisive policy at a time when we need to unite’
* Says ‘perception’ of two-tier policing risks undermining confidence
* Nigel Farage will never be allowed to join Tory party under her leadership
* Says record migration figures were justified in ‘context’ of pandemic and helping people from Afghanistan, Ukraine and Hong Kong
* Rejects suggestion she is right wing. ‘I just don’t think labels like that are relevant or helpful right now. We cannot keep on tacking left or right. I think that’s part of the reason why we’ve been in the mess we’ve been in’
* Warns that leaving ECHR would be divisive and impractical. ‘It is a divisive policy at a time when we need to unite’
* Says ‘perception’ of two-tier policing risks undermining confidence
* Nigel Farage will never be allowed to join Tory party under her leadership
* Says record migration figures were justified in ‘context’ of pandemic and helping people from Afghanistan, Ukraine and Hong Kong
* Rejects suggestion she is right wing. ‘I just don’t think labels like that are relevant or helpful right now. We cannot keep on tacking left or right. I think that’s part of the reason why we’ve been in the mess we’ve been in’
Evening pb. We've been to Bruges today. It restored my faith in tourist traps. It is unresevedly lovely. As indeed is much of North Belgium. Beer superb too.
You can't beat Bruges.
I don't think you can. It's utterly lovely. I remember being similar charmed when I visited in November 1999, though finding it a little quiet in the evening. That's less of a drawback these days.
* Warns that leaving ECHR would be divisive and impractical. ‘It is a divisive policy at a time when we need to unite’
* Says ‘perception’ of two-tier policing risks undermining confidence
* Nigel Farage will never be allowed to join Tory party under her leadership
* Says record migration figures were justified in ‘context’ of pandemic and helping people from Afghanistan, Ukraine and Hong Kong
* Rejects suggestion she is right wing. ‘I just don’t think labels like that are relevant or helpful right now. We cannot keep on tacking left or right. I think that’s part of the reason why we’ve been in the mess we’ve been in’
Evening pb. We've been to Bruges today. It restored my faith in tourist traps. It is unresevedly lovely. As indeed is much of North Belgium. Beer superb too.
Places which aren't ruined by their tourist trap status is a good category. Agree on Bruges. Not sure many will agree with me on Florence, but I nominate it anyway.
I had a particularly good experience of Florence when I went in February about 20 years ago, so would agree with you, though I understand it's a more challenging experience in the summer.
Ah, now off-season is another category.
I went in the summer. Rammed, loud americans whining, illegal handbag sellers on every corner, and too bloody hot. But none of that ruined it for me.
Abstract: How do dominant-group natives react to immigrants' political integration? We argue that ethnic minority immigrants winning political office makes natives feel threatened, triggering animosity. We test this dynamic across the 2010–2019 UK general elections, using hate crime police records, public opinion data, and text data from over 500,000 regional and local newspaper articles. While past work has not established a causal relationship between minorities' political power gains and dominant-group animosity, we identify natives' hostile reactions with a regression discontinuity design that leverages close election results between immigrant-origin ethnic minority and dominant-group candidates. We find that minority victories increase hate crimes by 67%, exclusionary attitudes by 66%, and negative media coverage of immigrant groups by 110%. Consistent with power threat and social identity theories, these findings demonstrate a strong and widespread negative reaction—encompassing a violence-prone fringe and the mass public—against ethnic minority immigrants' integration into majority settings.
I am hearing very positive things about Shockhat Adam who surprised by defeating Jonathan Ashworth.
Turning out to be a really hardworking and committed MP spending every day on casework, he is no monomaniac over Gaza, though that is a big concern to him.
It wouldn't surprise me if he holds in 5 years if he carries on like this.
Evening pb. We've been to Bruges today. It restored my faith in tourist traps. It is unresevedly lovely. As indeed is much of North Belgium. Beer superb too.
Places which aren't ruined by their tourist trap status is a good category. Agree on Bruges. Not sure many will agree with me on Florence, but I nominate it anyway.
I had a particularly good experience of Florence when I went in February about 20 years ago, so would agree with you, though I understand it's a more challenging experience in the summer.
Ah, now off-season is another category.
I went in the summer. Rammed, loud americans whining, illegal handbag sellers on every corner, and too bloody hot. But none of that ruined it for me.
Sellers of illegal handbags? The mind boggles. Does each bag come with a hidden weapon?
There are certainly some similarities between Franklin Roosevelt in 1944 and Joe Biden in 2024, most obviously their questionable health and obvious physical & mental decline.
Which was ONE reason why FDR was convinced to ditch his 3rd-term VP running mate, Henry Wallace (1941-45) for another, Harry Truman, for his 4th term.
Also note that Henry Wallace was similar to . . . wait for it . . . JD Vance in (at least) two respects:
> FDR considered HW a fellow New Dealer who would help carry on & solidify Rooseveltian liberalism within the Democratic Party and the country; similar to how DJT looks upon JDV as a kindred MAGA-maniac.
> As with Vance, Wallace was a hostage to fortune due to his pre-VP writings, in his case the "Guru letters" which "fell" into the hands of Republican hacks during the 1940 campaign when HW, previously FDR's Agriculure Secretary, first ran for VP; however the GOP was blocked from using them because the Democrats had dirt on 1940 Republican nominee Wendell Willkie and his mistress, which back in those days trumped (ahem) Wallace's weirdness (ahem).
Spain never won an Olympic boxing gold. Am struggling to think of a pro world champion. Anyone know why the Spanish don't box? Especially with the Mexicans by contrast.
Evening pb. We've been to Bruges today. It restored my faith in tourist traps. It is unresevedly lovely. As indeed is much of North Belgium. Beer superb too.
Places which aren't ruined by their tourist trap status is a good category. Agree on Bruges. Not sure many will agree with me on Florence, but I nominate it anyway.
I had a particularly good experience of Florence when I went in February about 20 years ago, so would agree with you, though I understand it's a more challenging experience in the summer.
Ah, now off-season is another category.
I went in the summer. Rammed, loud americans whining, illegal handbag sellers on every corner, and too bloody hot. But none of that ruined it for me.
Sellers of illegal handbags? The mind boggles. Does each bag come with a hidden weapon?
Counterfeit - and therefore illegal. Not on a licensed pitch - and therefore illegal. The vendor's presence in Italy - possibly illegal.
Evening pb. We've been to Bruges today. It restored my faith in tourist traps. It is unresevedly lovely. As indeed is much of North Belgium. Beer superb too.
Places which aren't ruined by their tourist trap status is a good category. Agree on Bruges. Not sure many will agree with me on Florence, but I nominate it anyway.
I had a particularly good experience of Florence when I went in February about 20 years ago, so would agree with you, though I understand it's a more challenging experience in the summer.
Ah, now off-season is another category.
I went in the summer. Rammed, loud americans whining, illegal handbag sellers on every corner, and too bloody hot. But none of that ruined it for me.
Sellers of illegal handbags? The mind boggles. Does each bag come with a hidden weapon?
Counterfeit - and therefore illegal. Not on a licensed pitch - and therefore illegal. The vendor's presence in Italy - possibly illegal.
The wares are placed thus. When the police come round the corner, the vendor picks up the blanket by its corners, like a storybook vagabond, swings it over his shoulder and runs off to unfurl it a few streets away.
* Warns that leaving ECHR would be divisive and impractical. ‘It is a divisive policy at a time when we need to unite’
* Says ‘perception’ of two-tier policing risks undermining confidence
* Nigel Farage will never be allowed to join Tory party under her leadership
* Says record migration figures were justified in ‘context’ of pandemic and helping people from Afghanistan, Ukraine and Hong Kong
* Rejects suggestion she is right wing. ‘I just don’t think labels like that are relevant or helpful right now. We cannot keep on tacking left or right. I think that’s part of the reason why we’ve been in the mess we’ve been in’
Evening pb. We've been to Bruges today. It restored my faith in tourist traps. It is unresevedly lovely. As indeed is much of North Belgium. Beer superb too.
You can't beat Bruges.
I don't think you can. It's utterly lovely. I remember being similar charmed when I visited in November 1999, though finding it a little quiet in the evening. That's less of a drawback these days.
About half hour after I arrived in Bruges one January day, it began to snow. Not a lot, but enough, with big puffy flakes.
Couldn't beat it with a stick! PLUS the candy & pastry shops were all open!!
The NYT swing state polls are good for Harris but Insider Advantage (taken Tuesday - Thursday) is more mixed and Trafalgar (taken Tuesday-Thursday) has Trump ahead in 3 swing states.
I admire your loyalty to Trump but it is over for him and Harris wil be the next POTUS
Astonishing levels of confidence BigG!!!
Not really
I am very confident that Harris not only has the momentum but Trump has nothing to offer
Indeed I expect it to be similar to our GE where Starmer won with some ease
Starmer had double digit poll leads consistently
At times the saying 'none so blind as those who cannot see' was invented for you
I always thought the expression was: "There are none so blind as those that will not see", i.e. those who refuse to see the evidence in front of them.
Which describes HYUFD perfectly in this case.
Singer Ray Stevens is given credit for writing the phrase 'there is none so blind as he who will not see ' in a line from the song 'everything is beautiful' which was released in 1970
British Author, John Heywood, in 1546 wrote:
'There are none so blind as those who will not see'
* Warns that leaving ECHR would be divisive and impractical. ‘It is a divisive policy at a time when we need to unite’
* Says ‘perception’ of two-tier policing risks undermining confidence
* Nigel Farage will never be allowed to join Tory party under her leadership
* Says record migration figures were justified in ‘context’ of pandemic and helping people from Afghanistan, Ukraine and Hong Kong
* Rejects suggestion she is right wing. ‘I just don’t think labels like that are relevant or helpful right now. We cannot keep on tacking left or right. I think that’s part of the reason why we’ve been in the mess we’ve been in’
She'll probably lose a lot of the right-wing backing she had before without winning over much One Nation support. Unlikely to win imo.
Indeed, problem is she still won't win most of the One Nation liberal wing over from Tugendhat and Stride and now risks losing the ERG support she did have so could end up going out first and even coming in behind Stride (who it seems is the continuity Rishi candidate so likely will get ultra Rishi loyalists behind him)
Evening pb. We've been to Bruges today. It restored my faith in tourist traps. It is unresevedly lovely. As indeed is much of North Belgium. Beer superb too.
Places which aren't ruined by their tourist trap status is a good category. Agree on Bruges. Not sure many will agree with me on Florence, but I nominate it anyway.
I had a particularly good experience of Florence when I went in February about 20 years ago, so would agree with you, though I understand it's a more challenging experience in the summer.
Ah, now off-season is another category.
I went in the summer. Rammed, loud americans whining, illegal handbag sellers on every corner, and too bloody hot. But none of that ruined it for me.
Sellers of illegal handbags? The mind boggles. Does each bag come with a hidden weapon?
Counterfeit - and therefore illegal. Not on a licensed pitch - and therefore illegal. The vendor's presence in Italy - possibly illegal.
The wares are placed thus. When the police come round the corner, the vendor picks up the blanket by its corners, like a storybook vagabond, swings it over his shoulder and runs off to unfurl it a few streets away.
* Warns that leaving ECHR would be divisive and impractical. ‘It is a divisive policy at a time when we need to unite’
* Says ‘perception’ of two-tier policing risks undermining confidence
* Nigel Farage will never be allowed to join Tory party under her leadership
* Says record migration figures were justified in ‘context’ of pandemic and helping people from Afghanistan, Ukraine and Hong Kong
* Rejects suggestion she is right wing. ‘I just don’t think labels like that are relevant or helpful right now. We cannot keep on tacking left or right. I think that’s part of the reason why we’ve been in the mess we’ve been in’
She'll probably lose a lot of the right-wing backing she had before without winning over much One Nation support. Unlikely to win imo.
Indeed, problem is she still won't win most of the One Nation liberal wing over from Tugendhat and Stride and now risks losing the ERG support she did have so could end up going out first and even coming in behind Stride (who it seems is the continuity Rishi candidate so likely will get ultra Rishi loyalists behind him)
Guardian has an interesting article suggesting that by the time of the next election 1.2 million of those who voted Tory last time will have died, and only about 120,000 of those who will join the register are likely to vote Tory.
I've avoided the fruity ones so far, though I don't object on principle. I'm going for the bastard strong ones with a picture of a cheerful monk on the front.
While Bruges is perfect, you could have a very fine time here while avoiding it entirely. I'm also particularly enjoying the prosperous but slightly ramshackle seaside towns. The Netherlands was a happy and prosperous and well-ordered place, but Belgium just has rather more charm about it.
* Warns that leaving ECHR would be divisive and impractical. ‘It is a divisive policy at a time when we need to unite’
* Says ‘perception’ of two-tier policing risks undermining confidence
* Nigel Farage will never be allowed to join Tory party under her leadership
* Says record migration figures were justified in ‘context’ of pandemic and helping people from Afghanistan, Ukraine and Hong Kong
* Rejects suggestion she is right wing. ‘I just don’t think labels like that are relevant or helpful right now. We cannot keep on tacking left or right. I think that’s part of the reason why we’ve been in the mess we’ve been in’
She'll probably lose a lot of the right-wing backing she had before without winning over much One Nation support. Unlikely to win imo.
Indeed, problem is she still won't win most of the One Nation liberal wing over from Tugendhat and Stride and now risks losing the ERG support she did have so could end up going out first and even coming in behind Stride (who it seems is the continuity Rishi candidate so likely will get ultra Rishi loyalists behind him)
Guardian has an interesting article suggesting that by the time of the next election 1.2 million of those who voted Tory last time will have died, and only about 120,000 of those who will join the register are likely to vote Tory.
That is always saìd about right wing parties. The problem is, young left wing voters don't necessarily remain as such.
Abstract: How do dominant-group natives react to immigrants' political integration? We argue that ethnic minority immigrants winning political office makes natives feel threatened, triggering animosity. We test this dynamic across the 2010–2019 UK general elections, using hate crime police records, public opinion data, and text data from over 500,000 regional and local newspaper articles. While past work has not established a causal relationship between minorities' political power gains and dominant-group animosity, we identify natives' hostile reactions with a regression discontinuity design that leverages close election results between immigrant-origin ethnic minority and dominant-group candidates. We find that minority victories increase hate crimes by 67%, exclusionary attitudes by 66%, and negative media coverage of immigrant groups by 110%. Consistent with power threat and social identity theories, these findings demonstrate a strong and widespread negative reaction—encompassing a violence-prone fringe and the mass public—against ethnic minority immigrants' integration into majority settings.
I would be immensely worried about correlation vs causation, there. We live in an era where the Tories gave us our first ever ethnic minority PM, plus (like 'em or loathe 'em) Patel, the Saj, Braverman etc. And I am all for people of any ethnicity or religion reaching the top jobs on merit.
But the last few years, in which it has become markedly easier for minorities who integrate and become part of 'the estabishment' to achieve political office, has also been marked by a period of heightened immigration and tension between communities that don't integrate.
So while more minorities are getting elected to office (good) we're also in an era of heightened community tensions (bad). I'm not sure this study is really correcting for that.
* Warns that leaving ECHR would be divisive and impractical. ‘It is a divisive policy at a time when we need to unite’
* Says ‘perception’ of two-tier policing risks undermining confidence
* Nigel Farage will never be allowed to join Tory party under her leadership
* Says record migration figures were justified in ‘context’ of pandemic and helping people from Afghanistan, Ukraine and Hong Kong
* Rejects suggestion she is right wing. ‘I just don’t think labels like that are relevant or helpful right now. We cannot keep on tacking left or right. I think that’s part of the reason why we’ve been in the mess we’ve been in’
She'll probably lose a lot of the right-wing backing she had before without winning over much One Nation support. Unlikely to win imo.
Indeed, problem is she still won't win most of the One Nation liberal wing over from Tugendhat and Stride and now risks losing the ERG support she did have so could end up going out first and even coming in behind Stride (who it seems is the continuity Rishi candidate so likely will get ultra Rishi loyalists behind him)
Guardian has an interesting article suggesting that by the time of the next election 1.2 million of those who voted Tory last time will have died, and only about 120,000 of those who will join the register are likely to vote Tory.
That is always saìd about right wing parties. The problem is, young left wing voters don't necessarily remain as such.
That doesn’t help the Tory party as other right wing parties (even the Lib Dems) may be available
* Warns that leaving ECHR would be divisive and impractical. ‘It is a divisive policy at a time when we need to unite’
* Says ‘perception’ of two-tier policing risks undermining confidence
* Nigel Farage will never be allowed to join Tory party under her leadership
* Says record migration figures were justified in ‘context’ of pandemic and helping people from Afghanistan, Ukraine and Hong Kong
* Rejects suggestion she is right wing. ‘I just don’t think labels like that are relevant or helpful right now. We cannot keep on tacking left or right. I think that’s part of the reason why we’ve been in the mess we’ve been in’
She'll probably lose a lot of the right-wing backing she had before without winning over much One Nation support. Unlikely to win imo.
Indeed, problem is she still won't win most of the One Nation liberal wing over from Tugendhat and Stride and now risks losing the ERG support she did have so could end up going out first and even coming in behind Stride (who it seems is the continuity Rishi candidate so likely will get ultra Rishi loyalists behind him)
Guardian has an interesting article suggesting that by the time of the next election 1.2 million of those who voted Tory last time will have died, and only about 120,000 of those who will join the register are likely to vote Tory.
Evening pb. We've been to Bruges today. It restored my faith in tourist traps. It is unresevedly lovely. As indeed is much of North Belgium. Beer superb too.
Places which aren't ruined by their tourist trap status is a good category. Agree on Bruges. Not sure many will agree with me on Florence, but I nominate it anyway.
I had a particularly good experience of Florence when I went in February about 20 years ago, so would agree with you, though I understand it's a more challenging experience in the summer.
Ah, now off-season is another category.
I went in the summer. Rammed, loud americans whining, illegal handbag sellers on every corner, and too bloody hot. But none of that ruined it for me.
Sellers of illegal handbags? The mind boggles. Does each bag come with a hidden weapon?
Counterfeit - and therefore illegal. Not on a licensed pitch - and therefore illegal. The vendor's presence in Italy - possibly illegal.
The wares are placed thus. When the police come round the corner, the vendor picks up the blanket by its corners, like a storybook vagabond, swings it over his shoulder and runs off to unfurl it a few streets away.
Saw that exact thing happen in Barcelona in 2019!
I think the first time we saw these sheets in Florence was 2009
* Warns that leaving ECHR would be divisive and impractical. ‘It is a divisive policy at a time when we need to unite’
* Says ‘perception’ of two-tier policing risks undermining confidence
* Nigel Farage will never be allowed to join Tory party under her leadership
* Says record migration figures were justified in ‘context’ of pandemic and helping people from Afghanistan, Ukraine and Hong Kong
* Rejects suggestion she is right wing. ‘I just don’t think labels like that are relevant or helpful right now. We cannot keep on tacking left or right. I think that’s part of the reason why we’ve been in the mess we’ve been in’
She'll probably lose a lot of the right-wing backing she had before without winning over much One Nation support. Unlikely to win imo.
Indeed, problem is she still won't win most of the One Nation liberal wing over from Tugendhat and Stride and now risks losing the ERG support she did have so could end up going out first and even coming in behind Stride (who it seems is the continuity Rishi candidate so likely will get ultra Rishi loyalists behind him)
Guardian has an interesting article suggesting that by the time of the next election 1.2 million of those who voted Tory last time will have died, and only about 120,000 of those who will join the register are likely to vote Tory.
That is always saìd about right wing parties. The problem is, young left wing voters don't necessarily remain as such.
Historically that was true, but much less so now according to polling.
It is possible that the Tories could appeal to the under 60s, but to do so they need to rethink policy. They aren't going to win with Brexitism, Trumpism and Nimbyism.
I hope the people who didn’t like the breakdancing last night got something out of the couples-swimming-under-the-water-with-their-legs-sticking-out competition this evening.
* Warns that leaving ECHR would be divisive and impractical. ‘It is a divisive policy at a time when we need to unite’
* Says ‘perception’ of two-tier policing risks undermining confidence
* Nigel Farage will never be allowed to join Tory party under her leadership
* Says record migration figures were justified in ‘context’ of pandemic and helping people from Afghanistan, Ukraine and Hong Kong
* Rejects suggestion she is right wing. ‘I just don’t think labels like that are relevant or helpful right now. We cannot keep on tacking left or right. I think that’s part of the reason why we’ve been in the mess we’ve been in’
She'll probably lose a lot of the right-wing backing she had before without winning over much One Nation support. Unlikely to win imo.
Indeed, problem is she still won't win most of the One Nation liberal wing over from Tugendhat and Stride and now risks losing the ERG support she did have so could end up going out first and even coming in behind Stride (who it seems is the continuity Rishi candidate so likely will get ultra Rishi loyalists behind him)
Guardian has an interesting article suggesting that by the time of the next election 1.2 million of those who voted Tory last time will have died, and only about 120,000 of those who will join the register are likely to vote Tory.
* Warns that leaving ECHR would be divisive and impractical. ‘It is a divisive policy at a time when we need to unite’
* Says ‘perception’ of two-tier policing risks undermining confidence
* Nigel Farage will never be allowed to join Tory party under her leadership
* Says record migration figures were justified in ‘context’ of pandemic and helping people from Afghanistan, Ukraine and Hong Kong
* Rejects suggestion she is right wing. ‘I just don’t think labels like that are relevant or helpful right now. We cannot keep on tacking left or right. I think that’s part of the reason why we’ve been in the mess we’ve been in’
She'll probably lose a lot of the right-wing backing she had before without winning over much One Nation support. Unlikely to win imo.
Indeed, problem is she still won't win most of the One Nation liberal wing over from Tugendhat and Stride and now risks losing the ERG support she did have so could end up going out first and even coming in behind Stride (who it seems is the continuity Rishi candidate so likely will get ultra Rishi loyalists behind him)
Guardian has an interesting article suggesting that by the time of the next election 1.2 million of those who voted Tory last time will have died, and only about 120,000 of those who will join the register are likely to vote Tory.
Abstract: How do dominant-group natives react to immigrants' political integration? We argue that ethnic minority immigrants winning political office makes natives feel threatened, triggering animosity. We test this dynamic across the 2010–2019 UK general elections, using hate crime police records, public opinion data, and text data from over 500,000 regional and local newspaper articles. While past work has not established a causal relationship between minorities' political power gains and dominant-group animosity, we identify natives' hostile reactions with a regression discontinuity design that leverages close election results between immigrant-origin ethnic minority and dominant-group candidates. We find that minority victories increase hate crimes by 67%, exclusionary attitudes by 66%, and negative media coverage of immigrant groups by 110%. Consistent with power threat and social identity theories, these findings demonstrate a strong and widespread negative reaction—encompassing a violence-prone fringe and the mass public—against ethnic minority immigrants' integration into majority settings.
I would be immensely worried about correlation vs causation, there. We live in an era where the Tories gave us our first ever ethnic minority PM, plus (like 'em or loathe 'em) Patel, the Saj, Braverman etc. And I am all for people of any ethnicity or religion reaching the top jobs on merit.
But the last few years, in which it has become markedly easier for minorities who integrate and become part of 'the estabishment' to achieve political office, has also been marked by a period of heightened immigration and tension between communities that don't integrate.
So while more minorities are getting elected to office (good) we're also in an era of heightened community tensions (bad). I'm not sure this study is really correcting for that.
As I say, correlation ≠ causation.
The mosques that were attacked in Southport and Middlesbrough seemed very integrated into their communities.
* Warns that leaving ECHR would be divisive and impractical. ‘It is a divisive policy at a time when we need to unite’
* Says ‘perception’ of two-tier policing risks undermining confidence
* Nigel Farage will never be allowed to join Tory party under her leadership
* Says record migration figures were justified in ‘context’ of pandemic and helping people from Afghanistan, Ukraine and Hong Kong
* Rejects suggestion she is right wing. ‘I just don’t think labels like that are relevant or helpful right now. We cannot keep on tacking left or right. I think that’s part of the reason why we’ve been in the mess we’ve been in’
She'll probably lose a lot of the right-wing backing she had before without winning over much One Nation support. Unlikely to win imo.
Indeed, problem is she still won't win most of the One Nation liberal wing over from Tugendhat and Stride and now risks losing the ERG support she did have so could end up going out first and even coming in behind Stride (who it seems is the continuity Rishi candidate so likely will get ultra Rishi loyalists behind him)
Guardian has an interesting article suggesting that by the time of the next election 1.2 million of those who voted Tory last time will have died, and only about 120,000 of those who will join the register are likely to vote Tory.
That is always saìd about right wing parties. The problem is, young left wing voters don't necessarily remain as such.
A lot of them haven't done in the past, but that was in ye olden days when the young could expect to become more prosperous then their parents.
* Warns that leaving ECHR would be divisive and impractical. ‘It is a divisive policy at a time when we need to unite’
* Says ‘perception’ of two-tier policing risks undermining confidence
* Nigel Farage will never be allowed to join Tory party under her leadership
* Says record migration figures were justified in ‘context’ of pandemic and helping people from Afghanistan, Ukraine and Hong Kong
* Rejects suggestion she is right wing. ‘I just don’t think labels like that are relevant or helpful right now. We cannot keep on tacking left or right. I think that’s part of the reason why we’ve been in the mess we’ve been in’
She'll probably lose a lot of the right-wing backing she had before without winning over much One Nation support. Unlikely to win imo.
Indeed, problem is she still won't win most of the One Nation liberal wing over from Tugendhat and Stride and now risks losing the ERG support she did have so could end up going out first and even coming in behind Stride (who it seems is the continuity Rishi candidate so likely will get ultra Rishi loyalists behind him)
Guardian has an interesting article suggesting that by the time of the next election 1.2 million of those who voted Tory last time will have died, and only about 120,000 of those who will join the register are likely to vote Tory.
That is always saìd about right wing parties. The problem is, young left wing voters don't necessarily remain as such.
The issue for the Tories is whether 60 year old left wing voters will remain as such or if they will move right as they get (even) older
I hope the people who didn’t like the breakdancing last night got something out of the couples-swimming-under-the-water-with-their-legs-sticking-out competition this evening.
One good thing about the Farage Riots is that conservative commentators have suddenly noticed that there's an underclass of around 10%-15% who feel cut off from the rest of society. I'm not sure how they didn't notice that before but that's besides the point.
Given a bipartisan inclination to heal this divide in our society, what could this Parliament do to help this 10%-15% have a stake in our country again? Particularly asking PB_Tories here, what could Labour do that you would support them with?
Labour could start by not looking down their nose at them.
Sigh
You're doing it yourself now.
I know that the tone of this forum can be snarkily partisan and I'm not saying that Labour are perfect but I asked a serious question and you just blew right past it to make a cheap partisan jibe and a personal one that really annoyed me.
You've got no way of knowing this but I can't look down on these people because I feel like I'm part of them or at least I could have been. I grew up on the Lordshill and then the Freshfield estates in Southampton. They weren't bad places to grow up in, Lordshill was brand new and modern with lots of kids the same age as me, Freshfield was a prewar estate, smaller with a real mix of social types and ages. We weren't the poorest, I knew plenty of kids in tougher circumstances but I'm sure that we were poorer than most people on this forum.
I was lucky that I was noticeably quicker at school (I wouldn't say brighter but I would pick new things up more easily) which made me a project for some of my school teachers. I passed my exam to get a full scholarship to the local fee-paying school from age 11 but turned it down for preferring to stay with my friends and knowing my parents would struggle to pay for the PE kit. They would say things like "When you go to university" when I genuinely hadn't considered it. If I were a school child now I think I would consider going to university to be a complete fantasy but I got in on the very tail end of student grants with a little bit of student loan top up that I paid off very quickly.
If I had been born 25-30 years later than there is no way I would have climbed any rungs of the ladder because it looks like it's not there anymore. Who knows, I might be like half my Facebook feed and be really angry right now. Don't accuse me of not caring when I very much care.
Something Tim Montgomerie said stuck with me (it's from a Times Radio interview on Wednesday but I only caught it this morning). He said something like "we are a rich enough society to park these people on the edge of society, to pay their welfare, to police them and to keep them at bay but that's not compassion."
I think that's wrong, we've never been rich enough to waste the potential of people just because they were born to a poorer section of society, that's what Britain's always done except for the brief postwar period that allowed that little bit of social mobility.
So I ask again, if we all want this underclass to be reconnected to the rest of society, what do we do with all party support?
(Edit because it wasn't clear where Tim's thoughts stopped and mine started)
Build houses, push people back into the workforce, improve education and control immigration.
Affordable housing, training opportunities, invest in production instead of subsidising consumption, build roads not railways.
Building roads is a fools errands (sorry Bart, sorry Richard).
I have spent the last thirty five years plus covering a million and a half miles on Britain's motorways. I remember my excitement at the opening of the M25, I would no longer need to run the gauntlet of the North and South circs. Fantastic! But it's not fantastic and hasn't been for at least 25 years. I spend hours each week stationary on the M42, the M4, M6, M1, and if there is an accident on the M5 South of Weston Super Mare and one might ad well go back home.
Travelling on the motorway network is a nightmare and every year it gets worse. There are far too many cars and trucks on our roads, and don't get me started on Smart Motorways.
The future is public transport and canning HS2 was dereliction of duty.
Good evening
I am very pleased I am unlikely to venture much on our gridlocked motorway networks and found it very amusing when my daughter phoned last week to say she was at a full stop on the M5, so much so people were getting out picnic blankets and a white van man had opened the rear door of his van and shut himself inside
On public transport, we decided to do the 'quarryman' narrow gauge steam hauled journey from Blaenau Ffestiniog to Porthmadog and return last week and left our car at Llandudno Station (10 hours for £2.50) and took the train to Blaenau and it was fabulous to sit back and enjoy the wonderful North Wales scenery on a lovely summers day and not drive for once
Interesting use of “public transport” to describe the narrow gauge railway.
Of course it’s public transport, as are cable cars in the alps, or aeroplanes. But we tend to think of public transport as being stuff people take to get to and from the mundane daily grind.
Plenty of people proudly state they don’t use public transport yet spend half their lives in airports.
Where do we draw the line? I’d say between scheduled and charter services. So for example Brittany Ferries to Santander is public transport, but a cruise around the med isn’t.
The more imaginative the mode of public transport the better.
It’s a real shame we don’t have scheduled airship journeys anymore.
There’s a serious school of (business) thought that airship could compete with, or even replace, the international cruise ship leisure market. Makes sense to me.
Airships are very, very power inefficient. They cruise at low altitudes, fighting the winds and requiring more fuel per passenger mile than a jet.
They are also rather fragile. Even ignoring the unfortunate incidents involving R38, R101, the Shenandoah and the Hindenburg, R100 suffered so many tears to its outer cover that they had to carry enough patches to make a spare one.
That’s the technology of almost a century ago, though.
Airships are playings of the wind. Which is the ultimate destroyer of airships.
With kevlar envelopes, and solar cell wraps, they could cruise for months,
Except they get smashed into the ground every now and again by the wind. Because they need to get near the ground to actually pickup/drop off passengers and cargo.
With modern weather forecasting, not a problem.
You’re mired in the last century.
Nope - the problem is the lack of really still days in most places. A breeze that a light aircraft will laugh at will wreck an airship - it’s surface vs thrust that is the unfixable problem.
You’ve got something the size of a large ship, which only weighs a small number of tons. The wind thrust on that cannot be countered by the engines at even quite low velocities.
Use helicopters to transfer passengers and supplies to the airship, then it can stay aloft.
A space elevator would be a great way for them to dock, and to get the passengers on an off. This transport design thingy is easy, innit?
Primrose Hill especially seductive this evening. A vision of relaxed, multi-ethnic, multi-gender Britain, chilling out by beautiful Georgian pubs in elegant Georgian streets in soft summer weather. I had a great night
Trouble is, that's just Primrose Hill, isn't it? There are probably 20-odd urban UK neighborhoods as nice as that, at most, in the entire country, and thousands that are far worse. Kentish Town springs to mind
Abstract: How do dominant-group natives react to immigrants' political integration? We argue that ethnic minority immigrants winning political office makes natives feel threatened, triggering animosity. We test this dynamic across the 2010–2019 UK general elections, using hate crime police records, public opinion data, and text data from over 500,000 regional and local newspaper articles. While past work has not established a causal relationship between minorities' political power gains and dominant-group animosity, we identify natives' hostile reactions with a regression discontinuity design that leverages close election results between immigrant-origin ethnic minority and dominant-group candidates. We find that minority victories increase hate crimes by 67%, exclusionary attitudes by 66%, and negative media coverage of immigrant groups by 110%. Consistent with power threat and social identity theories, these findings demonstrate a strong and widespread negative reaction—encompassing a violence-prone fringe and the mass public—against ethnic minority immigrants' integration into majority settings.
I would be immensely worried about correlation vs causation, there. We live in an era where the Tories gave us our first ever ethnic minority PM, plus (like 'em or loathe 'em) Patel, the Saj, Braverman etc. And I am all for people of any ethnicity or religion reaching the top jobs on merit.
But the last few years, in which it has become markedly easier for minorities who integrate and become part of 'the estabishment' to achieve political office, has also been marked by a period of heightened immigration and tension between communities that don't integrate.
So while more minorities are getting elected to office (good) we're also in an era of heightened community tensions (bad). I'm not sure this study is really correcting for that.
As I say, correlation ≠ causation.
The mosques that were attacked in Southport and Middlesbrough seemed very integrated into their communities.
I don't think it right to blame the victims.
I agree, I'm just pointing out that the linked paper seems to suggest that there is a causal link between ethnic minorities getting elected, and a rise in hate crimes. I'm not sure it provides a causal relationship, just a correlation - more ethnic minorities get elected because we live in a more colour blind and open society.
However, we also have problems with unchecked immigration into some of our poorest areas, and communites that don't integrate as well as they do in, say, London. Which explains why hate crimes have risen without the evidence to demonstrate that hate crimes rise *as a result* of minorities getting elected.
The paper feels to me like they are trying to stretch two unrelated data points and turn them into a causal link.
I hope the people who didn’t like the breakdancing last night got something out of the couples-swimming-under-the-water-with-their-legs-sticking-out competition this evening.
What a lot of nonsense!
And how are your swimming under the water with your legs sticking out skills?
until the next mad man goes on a rampage and there's a lull in the reporting with twitter filling the void.
They haven't gone away you know.
They will be back. There will be another Islamist outrage and then this will all kick off again, unless and until we get a government willing to do the tough stuff to combat this
Primrose Hill especially seductive this evening. A vision of relaxed, multi-ethnic, multi-gender Britain, chilling out by beautiful Georgian pubs in elegant Georgian streets in soft summer weather. I had a great night
Trouble is, that's just Primrose Hill, isn't it? There are probably 20-odd urban UK neighborhoods as nice as that, at most, in the entire country, and thousands that are far worse. Kentish Town springs to mind
Primrose Hill especially seductive this evening. A vision of relaxed, multi-ethnic, multi-gender Britain, chilling out by beautiful Georgian pubs in elegant Georgian streets in soft summer weather. I had a great night
Trouble is, that's just Primrose Hill, isn't it? There are probably 20-odd urban UK neighborhoods as nice as that, at most, in the entire country, and thousands that are far worse. Kentish Town springs to mind
The average property price in Primrose Hill being £1 674 052 likely helps with its being seductive
Yup. Probably the nicest urban place to live, in the entire country
* Warns that leaving ECHR would be divisive and impractical. ‘It is a divisive policy at a time when we need to unite’
* Says ‘perception’ of two-tier policing risks undermining confidence
* Nigel Farage will never be allowed to join Tory party under her leadership
* Says record migration figures were justified in ‘context’ of pandemic and helping people from Afghanistan, Ukraine and Hong Kong
* Rejects suggestion she is right wing. ‘I just don’t think labels like that are relevant or helpful right now. We cannot keep on tacking left or right. I think that’s part of the reason why we’ve been in the mess we’ve been in’
She'll probably lose a lot of the right-wing backing she had before without winning over much One Nation support. Unlikely to win imo.
Indeed, problem is she still won't win most of the One Nation liberal wing over from Tugendhat and Stride and now risks losing the ERG support she did have so could end up going out first and even coming in behind Stride (who it seems is the continuity Rishi candidate so likely will get ultra Rishi loyalists behind him)
Guardian has an interesting article suggesting that by the time of the next election 1.2 million of those who voted Tory last time will have died, and only about 120,000 of those who will join the register are likely to vote Tory.
You could have said the same in 1974 or 2005 and of course we all remember the Callaghan and Brown landslides of 1979 and 2010 that followed as a result
Abstract: How do dominant-group natives react to immigrants' political integration? We argue that ethnic minority immigrants winning political office makes natives feel threatened, triggering animosity. We test this dynamic across the 2010–2019 UK general elections, using hate crime police records, public opinion data, and text data from over 500,000 regional and local newspaper articles. While past work has not established a causal relationship between minorities' political power gains and dominant-group animosity, we identify natives' hostile reactions with a regression discontinuity design that leverages close election results between immigrant-origin ethnic minority and dominant-group candidates. We find that minority victories increase hate crimes by 67%, exclusionary attitudes by 66%, and negative media coverage of immigrant groups by 110%. Consistent with power threat and social identity theories, these findings demonstrate a strong and widespread negative reaction—encompassing a violence-prone fringe and the mass public—against ethnic minority immigrants' integration into majority settings.
I am hearing very positive things about Shockhat Adam who surprised by defeating Jonathan Ashworth.
Turning out to be a really hardworking and committed MP spending every day on casework, he is no monomaniac over Gaza, though that is a big concern to him.
It wouldn't surprise me if he holds in 5 years if he carries on like this.
until the next mad man goes on a rampage and there's a lull in the reporting with twitter filling the void.
They haven't gone away you know.
They will be back. There will be another Islamist outrage and then this will all kick off again, unless and until we get a government willing to do the tough stuff to combat this
You do realise by now that Southport wasn't an "Islamist Outrage" I hope.
Primrose Hill especially seductive this evening. A vision of relaxed, multi-ethnic, multi-gender Britain, chilling out by beautiful Georgian pubs in elegant Georgian streets in soft summer weather. I had a great night
Trouble is, that's just Primrose Hill, isn't it? There are probably 20-odd urban UK neighborhoods as nice as that, at most, in the entire country, and thousands that are far worse. Kentish Town springs to mind
I hope the people who didn’t like the breakdancing last night got something out of the couples-swimming-under-the-water-with-their-legs-sticking-out competition this evening.
What a lot of nonsense!
And how are your swimming under the water with your legs sticking out skills?
The fact something is hard to do doesn't justifÿ its presence in the Olympics.
* Warns that leaving ECHR would be divisive and impractical. ‘It is a divisive policy at a time when we need to unite’
* Says ‘perception’ of two-tier policing risks undermining confidence
* Nigel Farage will never be allowed to join Tory party under her leadership
* Says record migration figures were justified in ‘context’ of pandemic and helping people from Afghanistan, Ukraine and Hong Kong
* Rejects suggestion she is right wing. ‘I just don’t think labels like that are relevant or helpful right now. We cannot keep on tacking left or right. I think that’s part of the reason why we’ve been in the mess we’ve been in’
She'll probably lose a lot of the right-wing backing she had before without winning over much One Nation support. Unlikely to win imo.
Indeed, problem is she still won't win most of the One Nation liberal wing over from Tugendhat and Stride and now risks losing the ERG support she did have so could end up going out first and even coming in behind Stride (who it seems is the continuity Rishi candidate so likely will get ultra Rishi loyalists behind him)
Guardian has an interesting article suggesting that by the time of the next election 1.2 million of those who voted Tory last time will have died, and only about 120,000 of those who will join the register are likely to vote Tory.
That is always saìd about right wing parties. The problem is, young left wing voters don't necessarily remain as such.
Historically that was true, but much less so now according to polling.
It is possible that the Tories could appeal to the under 60s, but to do so they need to rethink policy. They aren't going to win with Brexitism, Trumpism and Nimbyism.
Young men in the US are voting Trump, even if young women are still strongly Democrat.
until the next mad man goes on a rampage and there's a lull in the reporting with twitter filling the void.
They haven't gone away you know.
They will be back. There will be another Islamist outrage and then this will all kick off again, unless and until we get a government willing to do the tough stuff to combat this
You do realise by now that Southport wasn't an "Islamist Outrage" I hope.
until the next mad man goes on a rampage and there's a lull in the reporting with twitter filling the void.
They haven't gone away you know.
They will be back. There will be another Islamist outrage and then this will all kick off again, unless and until we get a government willing to do the tough stuff to combat this
You mean “another misreport on Twatter kicks of a collection of dickheads to attack paediatricians*”?
*place marker for “randomly chosen victim of mob violence who had nothing to do with the alleged thing”
until the next mad man goes on a rampage and there's a lull in the reporting with twitter filling the void.
They haven't gone away you know.
They will be back. There will be another Islamist outrage and then this will all kick off again, unless and until we get a government willing to do the tough stuff to combat this
Cauldron weather arrives on Monday.
Definitely wont help keep a lid on things.
But it looks at moment like the three year stretches are causing a rethink amongst the idiot class.
until the next mad man goes on a rampage and there's a lull in the reporting with twitter filling the void.
They haven't gone away you know.
They will be back. There will be another Islamist outrage and then this will all kick off again, unless and until we get a government willing to do the tough stuff to combat this
You do realise by now that Southport wasn't an "Islamist Outrage" I hope.
Please grow a brain
Remind me which "Islamist Outrages" have provoked riots in Britain in the past?
Maybe the British people have more brains and understanding than you do.
Primrose Hill especially seductive this evening. A vision of relaxed, multi-ethnic, multi-gender Britain, chilling out by beautiful Georgian pubs in elegant Georgian streets in soft summer weather. I had a great night
Trouble is, that's just Primrose Hill, isn't it? There are probably 20-odd urban UK neighborhoods as nice as that, at most, in the entire country, and thousands that are far worse. Kentish Town springs to mind
The average property price in Primrose Hill being £1 674 052 likely helps with its being seductive
Yup. Probably the nicest urban place to live, in the entire country
Although I hear one or two of the locals are very annoying.
I hope the people who didn’t like the breakdancing last night got something out of the couples-swimming-under-the-water-with-their-legs-sticking-out competition this evening.
What a lot of nonsense!
And how are your swimming under the water with your legs sticking out skills?
The fact something is hard to do doesn't justifÿ its presence in the Olympics.
Darts, and snooker
Internationally popular, enjoyed by tens of millions, huge amount of participation, and a test of genuine skill. So popular that people can make fortunes playing them. No judges required, you just need to be GOOD with your fine motor skills. A test of muscle and brain
It is fucking mad that "breaking" and "Greco Roman wrestling" are still in the Games, which no one does and are entirely laughable and yet these two massively popular and, of course. BRITISH sports are not allowed
until the next mad man goes on a rampage and there's a lull in the reporting with twitter filling the void.
They haven't gone away you know.
They will be back. There will be another Islamist outrage and then this will all kick off again, unless and until we get a government willing to do the tough stuff to combat this
You do realise by now that Southport wasn't an "Islamist Outrage" I hope.
Primrose Hill especially seductive this evening. A vision of relaxed, multi-ethnic, multi-gender Britain, chilling out by beautiful Georgian pubs in elegant Georgian streets in soft summer weather. I had a great night
Trouble is, that's just Primrose Hill, isn't it? There are probably 20-odd urban UK neighborhoods as nice as that, at most, in the entire country, and thousands that are far worse. Kentish Town springs to mind
The average property price in Primrose Hill being £1 674 052 likely helps with its being seductive
Yup. Probably the nicest urban place to live, in the entire country
Although I hear one or two of the locals are very annoying.
until the next mad man goes on a rampage and there's a lull in the reporting with twitter filling the void.
They haven't gone away you know.
They will be back. There will be another Islamist outrage and then this will all kick off again, unless and until we get a government willing to do the tough stuff to combat this
Cauldron weather arrives on Monday.
Definitely wont help keep a lid on things.
But it looks at moment like the three year stretches are causing a rethink amongst the idiot class.
If nothing else, some of them are otherwise occupied for a bit.
Primrose Hill especially seductive this evening. A vision of relaxed, multi-ethnic, multi-gender Britain, chilling out by beautiful Georgian pubs in elegant Georgian streets in soft summer weather. I had a great night
Trouble is, that's just Primrose Hill, isn't it? There are probably 20-odd urban UK neighborhoods as nice as that, at most, in the entire country, and thousands that are far worse. Kentish Town springs to mind
The average property price in Primrose Hill being £1 674 052 likely helps with its being seductive
Yup. Probably the nicest urban place to live, in the entire country
Although I hear one or two of the locals are very annoying.
Primrose Hill especially seductive this evening. A vision of relaxed, multi-ethnic, multi-gender Britain, chilling out by beautiful Georgian pubs in elegant Georgian streets in soft summer weather. I had a great night
Trouble is, that's just Primrose Hill, isn't it? There are probably 20-odd urban UK neighborhoods as nice as that, at most, in the entire country, and thousands that are far worse. Kentish Town springs to mind
The average property price in Primrose Hill being £1 674 052 likely helps with its being seductive
Yup. Probably the nicest urban place to live, in the entire country
Although I hear one or two of the locals are very annoying.
until the next mad man goes on a rampage and there's a lull in the reporting with twitter filling the void.
They haven't gone away you know.
They will be back. There will be another Islamist outrage and then this will all kick off again, unless and until we get a government willing to do the tough stuff to combat this
Cauldron weather arrives on Monday.
Definitely wont help keep a lid on things.
But it looks at moment like the three year stretches are causing a rethink amongst the idiot class.
Well, I was the only PBer to predict that the "100 expected riots" on Wednesday were an absurd media-manufactured delusion. Amd I was right. They did not happen. The riots are over, until we have another migrant/Islamist linked outrage - whicn we will - and then the sequence will, sadly, likely continue
Primrose Hill especially seductive this evening. A vision of relaxed, multi-ethnic, multi-gender Britain, chilling out by beautiful Georgian pubs in elegant Georgian streets in soft summer weather. I had a great night
Trouble is, that's just Primrose Hill, isn't it? There are probably 20-odd urban UK neighborhoods as nice as that, at most, in the entire country, and thousands that are far worse. Kentish Town springs to mind
The average property price in Primrose Hill being £1 674 052 likely helps with its being seductive
Yup. Probably the nicest urban place to live, in the entire country
Although I hear one or two of the locals are very annoying.
He did really well but it's the story of our Games
Just couldn't close out the gold 😡
The GB girl was cheated out of Bronze, by the judges, and by her opponent's gamesmanship.
We have been cheated out of a hatful of medals throughout the fortnight.
The British medal count at the end of this will look remarkably similar to the three previous Games, it's just that fewer of them are golds. That's mainly down to a combination of a handful of narrow defeats against very strong opponents, and declines in several areas (cycling, sailing, boxing, swimming) not being compensated for by improvements in others (notably rowing.) It is what it is.
Today, Celine Dion’s management team and her record label, Sony Music Entertainment Canada Inc., became aware of the unauthorized usage of the video, recording, musical performance, and likeness of Celine Dion singing “My Heart Will Go On” at a Donald Trump / JD Vance campaign rally in Montana.
In no way is this use authorized, and Celine Dion does not endorse this or any similar use.
Primrose Hill especially seductive this evening. A vision of relaxed, multi-ethnic, multi-gender Britain, chilling out by beautiful Georgian pubs in elegant Georgian streets in soft summer weather. I had a great night
Trouble is, that's just Primrose Hill, isn't it? There are probably 20-odd urban UK neighborhoods as nice as that, at most, in the entire country, and thousands that are far worse. Kentish Town springs to mind
The average property price in Primrose Hill being £1 674 052 likely helps with its being seductive
Yup. Probably the nicest urban place to live, in the entire country
Although I hear one or two of the locals are very annoying.
I've counted at least five.
LOL.
Has our Leon ever met Polly Toynbee at the hairdressing salon?
Today, Celine Dion’s management team and her record label, Sony Music Entertainment Canada Inc., became aware of the unauthorized usage of the video, recording, musical performance, and likeness of Celine Dion singing “My Heart Will Go On” at a Donald Trump / JD Vance campaign rally in Montana.
In no way is this use authorized, and Celine Dion does not endorse this or any similar use.
I hope the people who didn’t like the breakdancing last night got something out of the couples-swimming-under-the-water-with-their-legs-sticking-out competition this evening.
What a lot of nonsense!
And how are your swimming under the water with your legs sticking out skills?
The fact something is hard to do doesn't justifÿ its presence in the Olympics.
Darts, and snooker
Internationally popular, enjoyed by tens of millions, huge amount of participation, and a test of genuine skill. So popular that people can make fortunes playing them. No judges required, you just need to be GOOD with your fine motor skills. A test of muscle and brain
It is fucking mad that "breaking" and "Greco Roman wrestling" are still in the Games, which no one does and are entirely laughable and yet these two massively popular and, of course. BRITISH sports are not allowed
You know perfectly well what would happen if darts and snooker ended up in the Olympics. Darts would be won by the Dutch and snooker would be won by the Chinese.
You'll have to start a campaign to have conkers admitted. Or bog snorkeling.
until the next mad man goes on a rampage and there's a lull in the reporting with twitter filling the void.
They haven't gone away you know.
They will be back. There will be another Islamist outrage and then this will all kick off again, unless and until we get a government willing to do the tough stuff to combat this
You mean “another misreport on Twatter kicks of a collection of dickheads to attack paediatricians*”?
*place marker for “randomly chosen victim of mob violence who had nothing to do with the alleged thing”
So the Southport murders weren't an Islamist outrage, reportedly he's Christian and he's definitely British born, not an immigrant. You know this Leon so I can only assume you are deliberately posting misinformation for deeply unpleasant personal motives But the riots haven't gone away, the people funding Y-L, Farage and all the others to foment this will kick it off again when they sense an opportunity.
Today, Celine Dion’s management team and her record label, Sony Music Entertainment Canada Inc., became aware of the unauthorized usage of the video, recording, musical performance, and likeness of Celine Dion singing “My Heart Will Go On” at a Donald Trump / JD Vance campaign rally in Montana.
In no way is this use authorized, and Celine Dion does not endorse this or any similar use.
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
until the next mad man goes on a rampage and there's a lull in the reporting with twitter filling the void.
They haven't gone away you know.
They will be back. There will be another Islamist outrage and then this will all kick off again, unless and until we get a government willing to do the tough stuff to combat this
You do realise by now that Southport wasn't an "Islamist Outrage" I hope.
Please grow a brain
Remind me which "Islamist Outrages" have provoked riots in Britain in the past?
Maybe the British people have more brains and understanding than you do.
You don't realise that the problem is CryptoIslamists?
Who are so hidden that *they* don't know they are Islamists! So the chap in Southport had no idea that he was actually an Islamist. Nor did anyone else know he was an Islamist.
It's all done via the chips that Bill Gates put in the COVID vaccine.
You could be an Islamist and not even realise it.
The only way they can be detected is with special sunglasses.
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Do we expect the next set of local elections to be a GE hangover, and therefore bad for the tories, or the first green shoots of a recovery? Overall the tories kept hold of a surprising number of council seats over their years in national governent - many more than Labour did 1997-2010 for comparison.
until the next mad man goes on a rampage and there's a lull in the reporting with twitter filling the void.
They haven't gone away you know.
They will be back. There will be another Islamist outrage and then this will all kick off again, unless and until we get a government willing to do the tough stuff to combat this
You mean “another misreport on Twatter kicks of a collection of dickheads to attack paediatricians*”?
*place marker for “randomly chosen victim of mob violence who had nothing to do with the alleged thing”
So the Southport murders weren't an Islamist outrage, reportedly he's Christian and he's definitely British born, not an immigrant. You know this Leon so I can only assume you are deliberately posting misinformation for deeply unpleasant personal motives But the riots haven't gone away, the people funding Y-L, Farage and all the others to foment this will kick it off again when they sense an opportunity.
Please point me to the moment where I claiim Southport was an "Islamist outrage". I'll spare you the time: I didn't, because I know it probably wasn't. So you are barking at phantoms
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Higher taxes and lower growth is where it's heading. Had lunch with a financial advisor this week who reckons half their clients are going to up sticks if Labour do a mad one and put CGT up to 45%.
My guess is that Labour are not going to be that stupid, particularly as HMRC have published a report documenting the billions it will cost them, and Labour have promised to listen to the OBR...
But something tells me no, they're really going to be stupid and go for the jugular of British business. It's like the old story of the frog and the scorpion, the scorpion can't help it, it's in its nature.
Abstract: How do dominant-group natives react to immigrants' political integration? We argue that ethnic minority immigrants winning political office makes natives feel threatened, triggering animosity. We test this dynamic across the 2010–2019 UK general elections, using hate crime police records, public opinion data, and text data from over 500,000 regional and local newspaper articles. While past work has not established a causal relationship between minorities' political power gains and dominant-group animosity, we identify natives' hostile reactions with a regression discontinuity design that leverages close election results between immigrant-origin ethnic minority and dominant-group candidates. We find that minority victories increase hate crimes by 67%, exclusionary attitudes by 66%, and negative media coverage of immigrant groups by 110%. Consistent with power threat and social identity theories, these findings demonstrate a strong and widespread negative reaction—encompassing a violence-prone fringe and the mass public—against ethnic minority immigrants' integration into majority settings.
I would be immensely worried about correlation vs causation, there. We live in an era where the Tories gave us our first ever ethnic minority PM, plus (like 'em or loathe 'em) Patel, the Saj, Braverman etc. And I am all for people of any ethnicity or religion reaching the top jobs on merit.
But the last few years, in which it has become markedly easier for minorities who integrate and become part of 'the estabishment' to achieve political office, has also been marked by a period of heightened immigration and tension between communities that don't integrate.
So while more minorities are getting elected to office (good) we're also in an era of heightened community tensions (bad). I'm not sure this study is really correcting for that.
As I say, correlation ≠ causation.
The mosques that were attacked in Southport and Middlesbrough seemed very integrated into their communities.
I don't think it right to blame the victims.
I agree, I'm just pointing out that the linked paper seems to suggest that there is a causal link between ethnic minorities getting elected, and a rise in hate crimes. I'm not sure it provides a causal relationship, just a correlation - more ethnic minorities get elected because we live in a more colour blind and open society.
However, we also have problems with unchecked immigration into some of our poorest areas, and communites that don't integrate as well as they do in, say, London. Which explains why hate crimes have risen without the evidence to demonstrate that hate crimes rise *as a result* of minorities getting elected.
The paper feels to me like they are trying to stretch two unrelated data points and turn them into a causal link.
Perhaps it's because as ethnic minorities integrate and become successful, loony far right billionaires fund people like Y-L, Fox and parties like Reform and Reclaim to stir up tension.
Abstract: How do dominant-group natives react to immigrants' political integration? We argue that ethnic minority immigrants winning political office makes natives feel threatened, triggering animosity. We test this dynamic across the 2010–2019 UK general elections, using hate crime police records, public opinion data, and text data from over 500,000 regional and local newspaper articles. While past work has not established a causal relationship between minorities' political power gains and dominant-group animosity, we identify natives' hostile reactions with a regression discontinuity design that leverages close election results between immigrant-origin ethnic minority and dominant-group candidates. We find that minority victories increase hate crimes by 67%, exclusionary attitudes by 66%, and negative media coverage of immigrant groups by 110%. Consistent with power threat and social identity theories, these findings demonstrate a strong and widespread negative reaction—encompassing a violence-prone fringe and the mass public—against ethnic minority immigrants' integration into majority settings.
I would be immensely worried about correlation vs causation, there. We live in an era where the Tories gave us our first ever ethnic minority PM, plus (like 'em or loathe 'em) Patel, the Saj, Braverman etc. And I am all for people of any ethnicity or religion reaching the top jobs on merit.
But the last few years, in which it has become markedly easier for minorities who integrate and become part of 'the estabishment' to achieve political office, has also been marked by a period of heightened immigration and tension between communities that don't integrate.
So while more minorities are getting elected to office (good) we're also in an era of heightened community tensions (bad). I'm not sure this study is really correcting for that.
As I say, correlation ≠ causation.
The mosques that were attacked in Southport and Middlesbrough seemed very integrated into their communities.
I don't think it right to blame the victims.
I agree, I'm just pointing out that the linked paper seems to suggest that there is a causal link between ethnic minorities getting elected, and a rise in hate crimes. I'm not sure it provides a causal relationship, just a correlation - more ethnic minorities get elected because we live in a more colour blind and open society.
However, we also have problems with unchecked immigration into some of our poorest areas, and communites that don't integrate as well as they do in, say, London. Which explains why hate crimes have risen without the evidence to demonstrate that hate crimes rise *as a result* of minorities getting elected.
The paper feels to me like they are trying to stretch two unrelated data points and turn them into a causal link.
Perhaps it's because as ethnic minorities integrate and become successful, loony far right billionaires fund people like Y-L, Fox and parties like Reform and Reclaim to stir up tension.
Perhaps. The point is that paper only proves a correlation, it doesn't definitively prove any kind of causation.
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Do we expect the next set of local elections to be a GE hangover, and therefore bad for the tories, or the first green shoots of a recovery? Overall the tories kept hold of a surprising number of council seats over their years in national governent - many more than Labour did 1997-2010 for comparison.
I seriously believe the Tories can undo this pathetic Woke Labour government in one term. Starmer only got 33.7% on a shit turnout, this can be overturned in moments, and Starmer is a clueless nasal-voiced Woke twat like all his Cabinet, he won't fix anything, he will make most things worse
But the Tories need a really good leader, able to harness Reform voters yet stay centre right, and unfortunately I cannot see who that is - yet
Abstract: How do dominant-group natives react to immigrants' political integration? We argue that ethnic minority immigrants winning political office makes natives feel threatened, triggering animosity. We test this dynamic across the 2010–2019 UK general elections, using hate crime police records, public opinion data, and text data from over 500,000 regional and local newspaper articles. While past work has not established a causal relationship between minorities' political power gains and dominant-group animosity, we identify natives' hostile reactions with a regression discontinuity design that leverages close election results between immigrant-origin ethnic minority and dominant-group candidates. We find that minority victories increase hate crimes by 67%, exclusionary attitudes by 66%, and negative media coverage of immigrant groups by 110%. Consistent with power threat and social identity theories, these findings demonstrate a strong and widespread negative reaction—encompassing a violence-prone fringe and the mass public—against ethnic minority immigrants' integration into majority settings.
I would be immensely worried about correlation vs causation, there. We live in an era where the Tories gave us our first ever ethnic minority PM, plus (like 'em or loathe 'em) Patel, the Saj, Braverman etc. And I am all for people of any ethnicity or religion reaching the top jobs on merit.
But the last few years, in which it has become markedly easier for minorities who integrate and become part of 'the estabishment' to achieve political office, has also been marked by a period of heightened immigration and tension between communities that don't integrate.
So while more minorities are getting elected to office (good) we're also in an era of heightened community tensions (bad). I'm not sure this study is really correcting for that.
As I say, correlation ≠ causation.
The mosques that were attacked in Southport and Middlesbrough seemed very integrated into their communities.
I don't think it right to blame the victims.
I agree, I'm just pointing out that the linked paper seems to suggest that there is a causal link between ethnic minorities getting elected, and a rise in hate crimes. I'm not sure it provides a causal relationship, just a correlation - more ethnic minorities get elected because we live in a more colour blind and open society.
However, we also have problems with unchecked immigration into some of our poorest areas, and communites that don't integrate as well as they do in, say, London. Which explains why hate crimes have risen without the evidence to demonstrate that hate crimes rise *as a result* of minorities getting elected.
The paper feels to me like they are trying to stretch two unrelated data points and turn them into a causal link.
Perhaps it's because as ethnic minorities integrate and become successful, loony far right billionaires fund people like Y-L, Fox and parties like Reform and Reclaim to stir up tension.
Riots and revolts are a constant of history.
During the "long peace" of the Shoguns, in Japan, there was a peasant revolt somewhere, every year.
I hope the people who didn’t like the breakdancing last night got something out of the couples-swimming-under-the-water-with-their-legs-sticking-out competition this evening.
What a lot of nonsense!
It's a relic of the Cold War.
It was introduced by the USA in 1984 because it was certain of winning the gold medal and putting one over on its ideological enemy, the Soviet Union. In due course this rather rebounded, because the event played heavily to Russian strengths - regimentation and cheating - so that they were able to dominate from 2000 to 2016, but by then few people outside the 'sport' gave a shit anyway. I think its persistence still is due mainly to inertia.
It is no doubt something of an embarrassment to the IOC because it is plainly not a sport but getting rid of it is probably more trouble than it is worth. The Olympics is such a wonderful jamboree of true sporting attainment that the odd anomaly like water-ballet can be readily tolerated. There is always the risk of course that it leads to the proliferation of other trash sports attaching themselves to the Olympic bandwagon. Breakdancing is a particularly lamentable example, but it seems it will not be appearing on the schedule at Los Angeles in 2028.
Someone on the IOC must have said 'enough is enough'.
Abstract: How do dominant-group natives react to immigrants' political integration? We argue that ethnic minority immigrants winning political office makes natives feel threatened, triggering animosity. We test this dynamic across the 2010–2019 UK general elections, using hate crime police records, public opinion data, and text data from over 500,000 regional and local newspaper articles. While past work has not established a causal relationship between minorities' political power gains and dominant-group animosity, we identify natives' hostile reactions with a regression discontinuity design that leverages close election results between immigrant-origin ethnic minority and dominant-group candidates. We find that minority victories increase hate crimes by 67%, exclusionary attitudes by 66%, and negative media coverage of immigrant groups by 110%. Consistent with power threat and social identity theories, these findings demonstrate a strong and widespread negative reaction—encompassing a violence-prone fringe and the mass public—against ethnic minority immigrants' integration into majority settings.
I would be immensely worried about correlation vs causation, there. We live in an era where the Tories gave us our first ever ethnic minority PM, plus (like 'em or loathe 'em) Patel, the Saj, Braverman etc. And I am all for people of any ethnicity or religion reaching the top jobs on merit.
But the last few years, in which it has become markedly easier for minorities who integrate and become part of 'the estabishment' to achieve political office, has also been marked by a period of heightened immigration and tension between communities that don't integrate.
So while more minorities are getting elected to office (good) we're also in an era of heightened community tensions (bad). I'm not sure this study is really correcting for that.
As I say, correlation ≠ causation.
The mosques that were attacked in Southport and Middlesbrough seemed very integrated into their communities.
I don't think it right to blame the victims.
I agree, I'm just pointing out that the linked paper seems to suggest that there is a causal link between ethnic minorities getting elected, and a rise in hate crimes. I'm not sure it provides a causal relationship, just a correlation - more ethnic minorities get elected because we live in a more colour blind and open society.
However, we also have problems with unchecked immigration into some of our poorest areas, and communites that don't integrate as well as they do in, say, London. Which explains why hate crimes have risen without the evidence to demonstrate that hate crimes rise *as a result* of minorities getting elected.
The paper feels to me like they are trying to stretch two unrelated data points and turn them into a causal link.
Perhaps it's because as ethnic minorities integrate and become successful, loony far right billionaires fund people like Y-L, Fox and parties like Reform and Reclaim to stir up tension.
Riots and revolts are a constant of history.
During the "long peace" of the Shoguns, in Japan, there was a peasant revolt somewhere, every year.
Primrose Hill especially seductive this evening. A vision of relaxed, multi-ethnic, multi-gender Britain, chilling out by beautiful Georgian pubs in elegant Georgian streets in soft summer weather. I had a great night
Trouble is, that's just Primrose Hill, isn't it? There are probably 20-odd urban UK neighborhoods as nice as that, at most, in the entire country, and thousands that are far worse. Kentish Town springs to mind
FRANCE seems to have many towns with lovely nightlife. Good bars and plentiful restaurants (even if most are uninventive trad French, you do get the odd modern one that is trying to push the envelope). And great looking people. Everywhere. Steak, wine, salad and cigarettes is clearly good for the visage.
For the record: Years ago, I read that at least one company was selling women's purses that had concealed holsters, to hold a lady's hand gun. (They probably weren't being sold on those blankets, however.)
Doubt they were much of a success, but can think of places --for instance, Afghanistan -- where they might be useful.
I hope the people who didn’t like the breakdancing last night got something out of the couples-swimming-under-the-water-with-their-legs-sticking-out competition this evening.
What a lot of nonsense!
And how are your swimming under the water with your legs sticking out skills?
The fact something is hard to do doesn't justifÿ its presence in the Olympics.
Darts, and snooker
Internationally popular, enjoyed by tens of millions, huge amount of participation, and a test of genuine skill. So popular that people can make fortunes playing them. No judges required, you just need to be GOOD with your fine motor skills. A test of muscle and brain
It is fucking mad that "breaking" and "Greco Roman wrestling" are still in the Games, which no one does and are entirely laughable and yet these two massively popular and, of course. BRITISH sports are not allowed
I hope the people who didn’t like the breakdancing last night got something out of the couples-swimming-under-the-water-with-their-legs-sticking-out competition this evening.
What a lot of nonsense!
And how are your swimming under the water with your legs sticking out skills?
The fact something is hard to do doesn't justifÿ its presence in the Olympics.
Darts, and snooker
Internationally popular, enjoyed by tens of millions, huge amount of participation, and a test of genuine skill. So popular that people can make fortunes playing them. No judges required, you just need to be GOOD with your fine motor skills. A test of muscle and brain
It is fucking mad that "breaking" and "Greco Roman wrestling" are still in the Games, which no one does and are entirely laughable and yet these two massively popular and, of course. BRITISH sports are not allowed
The overriding problem with the Olympics is that nobody really cares about the Olympics. If someone swims a split second faster than someone else it doesn’t lead to a nation in ecstasy. Similarly, if someone shoots 0.02mm wider of the target than someone else, it causes not the despair of the populous. That’s why we have team sport tournaments: people actually care about them.
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Do we expect the next set of local elections to be a GE hangover, and therefore bad for the tories, or the first green shoots of a recovery? Overall the tories kept hold of a surprising number of council seats over their years in national governent - many more than Labour did 1997-2010 for comparison.
I seriously believe the Tories can undo this pathetic Woke Labour government in one term. Starmer only got 33.7% on a shit turnout, this can be overturned in moments, and Starmer is a clueless nasal-voiced Woke twat like all his Cabinet, he won't fix anything, he will make most things worse
But the Tories need a really good leader, able to harness Reform voters yet stay centre right, and unfortunately I cannot see who that is - yet
Comments
Just once, but he was very enthusiastic about the experience.
We've been to Bruges today. It restored my faith in tourist traps. It is unresevedly lovely.
As indeed is much of North Belgium.
Beer superb too.
https://x.com/TheAtlantic/status/1822007488574615698?t=dE22CI79ESl3G1eS0kwEIQ&s=19
Walz seems to cook like he can't wait any longer for diabetes and a stroke, but on the bullseye of Midwestern taste. Harris recipes sound more to my liking.
(And a multi billion fortune.)
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1822290335059353965
You can tell because of how it emulates one of his lordship's previous naval exploits, at Copenhagen . . . where in order to avoid obeying inconvient orders from the fleet admiral, Nelson famously held his spyglass up to his blind eye.
'@Steven_Swinford
Priti Patel interview:
* Warns that leaving ECHR would be divisive and impractical. ‘It is a divisive policy at a time when we need to unite’
* Says ‘perception’ of two-tier policing risks undermining confidence
* Nigel Farage will never be allowed to join Tory party under her leadership
* Says record migration figures were justified in ‘context’ of pandemic and helping people from Afghanistan, Ukraine and Hong Kong
* Rejects suggestion she is right wing. ‘I just don’t think labels like that are relevant or helpful right now. We cannot keep on tacking left or right. I think that’s part of the reason why we’ve been in the mess we’ve been in’
* Says she has ‘100%’ confidence that she will win the contest'
https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1822211512255004984
I remember being similar charmed when I visited in November 1999, though finding it a little quiet in the evening. That's less of a drawback these days.
I went in the summer. Rammed, loud americans whining, illegal handbag sellers on every corner, and too bloody hot. But none of that ruined it for me.
Turning out to be a really hardworking and committed MP spending every day on casework, he is no monomaniac over Gaza, though that is a big concern to him.
It wouldn't surprise me if he holds in 5 years if he carries on like this.
Which was ONE reason why FDR was convinced to ditch his 3rd-term VP running mate, Henry Wallace (1941-45) for another, Harry Truman, for his 4th term.
Also note that Henry Wallace was similar to . . . wait for it . . . JD Vance in (at least) two respects:
> FDR considered HW a fellow New Dealer who would help carry on & solidify Rooseveltian liberalism within the Democratic Party and the country; similar to how DJT looks upon JDV as a kindred MAGA-maniac.
> As with Vance, Wallace was a hostage to fortune due to his pre-VP writings, in his case the "Guru letters" which "fell" into the hands of Republican hacks during the 1940 campaign when HW, previously FDR's Agriculure Secretary, first ran for VP; however the GOP was blocked from using them because the Democrats had dirt on 1940 Republican nominee Wendell Willkie and his mistress, which back in those days trumped (ahem) Wallace's weirdness (ahem).
Anyone know why the Spanish don't box?
Especially with the Mexicans by contrast.
The wares are placed thus. When the police come round the corner, the vendor picks up the blanket by its corners, like a storybook vagabond, swings it over his shoulder and runs off to unfurl it a few streets away.
Couldn't beat it with a stick! PLUS the candy & pastry shops were all open!!
"500 lefties 30 racists" was their report.
While Bruges is perfect, you could have a very fine time here while avoiding it entirely. I'm also particularly enjoying the prosperous but slightly ramshackle seaside towns.
The Netherlands was a happy and prosperous and well-ordered place, but Belgium just has rather more charm about it.
But the last few years, in which it has become markedly easier for minorities who integrate and become part of 'the estabishment' to achieve political office, has also been marked by a period of heightened immigration and tension between communities that don't integrate.
So while more minorities are getting elected to office (good) we're also in an era of heightened community tensions (bad). I'm not sure this study is really correcting for that.
As I say, correlation ≠ causation.
It is possible that the Tories could appeal to the under 60s, but to do so they need to rethink policy. They aren't going to win with Brexitism, Trumpism and Nimbyism.
What a lot of nonsense!
I don't think it right to blame the victims.
https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/lifestyle/article/olympic-games-weirdest-events
Obviously the Yanks tried to go superlarge and f*cked it up:
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3pWbizmtWyU/WWRabBsvRAI/AAAAAAAANIk/XrPDD8hS9-kARQo7mT-kSF-B-efRnMKsQCLcBGAs/s1600/mooring_mast_1.jpg
Trouble is, that's just Primrose Hill, isn't it? There are probably 20-odd urban UK neighborhoods as nice as that, at most, in the entire country, and thousands that are far worse. Kentish Town springs to mind
They haven't gone away you know.
However, we also have problems with unchecked immigration into some of our poorest areas, and communites that don't integrate as well as they do in, say, London. Which explains why hate crimes have risen without the evidence to demonstrate that hate crimes rise *as a result* of minorities getting elected.
The paper feels to me like they are trying to stretch two unrelated data points and turn them into a causal link.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/primrose-hill.html
'Research by the Young Men Research Initiative (YMRI), a group set up in recent months to observe this unexpected drift, shows that men aged 18-29 are split 32% for Harris and 33% for Donald Trump, with Robert F Kennedy Jr taking 15%.'
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2024/aug/05/young-men-voters-us-election-trump-harris
Jenrick is promising to take on Nimbys and build more homes like his Canadian pal Poilievre (and was a Remainer though he accepted the Brexit vote)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/robert-jenrick-the-tories-have-a-young-person-problem/
*place marker for “randomly chosen victim of mob violence who had nothing to do with the alleged thing”
Definitely wont help keep a lid on things.
But it looks at moment like the three year stretches are causing a rethink amongst the idiot class.
Maybe the British people have more brains and understanding than you do.
Internationally popular, enjoyed by tens of millions, huge amount of participation, and a test of genuine skill. So popular that people can make fortunes playing them. No judges required, you just need to be GOOD with your fine motor skills. A test of muscle and brain
It is fucking mad that "breaking" and "Greco Roman wrestling" are still in the Games, which no one does and are entirely laughable and yet these two massively popular and, of course. BRITISH sports are not allowed
Given that every pop singer seems to be driven by filthy lucre, and suddenly indulges in fits of moral outrage, it seems a strange stance to take.
@hendopolis
·
2m
INDEPENDENT: Reeves hit by huge £47bn bill to settle claims against the state #TomorrowsPapersToday
There is a long, long history of pop stars objecting to and stopping the usage of their work by US political campaigns they don't like.
You'll have to start a campaign to have conkers admitted. Or bog snorkeling.
You know this Leon so I can only assume you are deliberately posting misinformation for deeply unpleasant personal motives
But the riots haven't gone away, the people funding Y-L, Farage and all the others to foment this will kick it off again when they sense an opportunity.
No idea about use for a rally though.
Acyn
@Acyn
Mind your own damn business continues to receive the strongest response from the [Walz] crowds
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1822068641476833687
I had drinks tonight with an old lefty friend. Firmly Labour, and always has been
He was notably reluctant to defend Starmer. He was unaware of the varied discourse over the riots, so that wasn't a fact (he thought it was just football hoons having a go). Yet, still notably dispirited. He had no idea how Labour might make things better and no confidence they will, and admitted as much
That's quite striking, and he can be quite forceful if he really believes something. eg he was an impassioned Remainer
There is no enthusiasm behind Starmer. even his alleged supporters don't like him. The Tories, if they are clever, can sweep this putrid government away in one term
Shape up. Tories!
Who are so hidden that *they* don't know they are Islamists! So the chap in Southport had no idea that he was actually an Islamist. Nor did anyone else know he was an Islamist.
It's all done via the chips that Bill Gates put in the COVID vaccine.
You could be an Islamist and not even realise it.
The only way they can be detected is with special sunglasses.
See this handy instructional video - https://youtu.be/g4XiKChyK7A?si=y92dSRvWlsioQf_0
My guess is that Labour are not going to be that stupid, particularly as HMRC have published a report documenting the billions it will cost them, and Labour have promised to listen to the OBR...
But something tells me no, they're really going to be stupid and go for the jugular of British business. It's like the old story of the frog and the scorpion, the scorpion can't help it, it's in its nature.
But the Tories need a really good leader, able to harness Reform voters yet stay centre right, and unfortunately I cannot see who that is - yet
During the "long peace" of the Shoguns, in Japan, there was a peasant revolt somewhere, every year.
It was introduced by the USA in 1984 because it was certain of winning the gold medal and putting one over on its ideological enemy, the Soviet Union. In due course this rather rebounded, because the event played heavily to Russian strengths - regimentation and cheating - so that they were able to dominate from 2000 to 2016, but by then few people outside the 'sport' gave a shit anyway. I think its persistence still is due mainly to inertia.
It is no doubt something of an embarrassment to the IOC because it is plainly not a sport but getting rid of it is probably more trouble than it is worth. The Olympics is such a wonderful jamboree of true sporting attainment that the odd anomaly like water-ballet can be readily tolerated. There is always the risk of course that it leads to the proliferation of other trash sports attaching themselves to the Olympic bandwagon. Breakdancing is a particularly lamentable example, but it seems it will not be appearing on the schedule at Los Angeles in 2028.
Someone on the IOC must have said 'enough is enough'.
https://x.com/dean_journalist/status/1822350257344135514
Best country in all the world?
Not been posting much because I have been touring FRANCE.
Doubt they were much of a success, but can think of places --for instance, Afghanistan -- where they might be useful.