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Can you spot the trend? – politicalbetting.com
Can you spot the trend? – politicalbetting.com
? New polling with @ObserverUK This week’s omits Voting Intention again, as we continue to assess our weighting.Keir Starmer’s approval comes first again. Starmer’s honeymoon appears to have taken a trip, with his net approval at +3, compared to +19% a fortnight ago. pic.twitter.com/KM9CzLWJoI
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The simplistic and often naïve solutions of opposition hit the realities of government. It has ever been thus.
Second point: since the election his popularity is up with Conservative voters.
It's left wing voters that he is losing popularity with, not right wing ones.
The rioters chant Robinson’s name, and we know the National Front, British Movement and Patriotic Alternative have all been involved in spreading misinformation and/or organising specific events. Such groups have been building online support since the COVID lockdowns. They do not have “legitimate concerns”.
Nate Silver has Harris ahead 45.0 to 43.9: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
These averages both include a Harris +5 poll from RMG, released two days ago. RCP have yet to add it...
Skilled work visas granted seem to be about 60K people total which isn't that many. I'm not sure how much difference it makes to bung the salary requirement up.
IIUC student visas for dependents were only for masters students before, then they further restricted that to PhD students. At this point you're already seriously damaging competitiveness by making the most promising scientists leave for somewhere they can take their families, and again not making a huge dent in the numbers.
Can't say about the shortage occupations without specifics. You could fuck over the NHS but this is the one thing the voters hate even more than immigration.
Marriage visas are already extremely hard to get, not least the income requirement for the British person is bananas, and the income of the foreign spouse doesn't count. A government that makes it even harder will earn the enduring targetted hatred of lots of British families, although I guess they can reasonably hope that the British person will also move abroad and drop off the electoral register, and driving out a British person counts double for the net migration stats.
Despite my reservations about whether this form of polling is any more accurate than the voting intentions were there is also some suggestions that support amongst Tories has improved and it is Labour supporters that are disappointed by the lack of magic wands and the waving thereof.
Just imagine how many more seats Labour would have won in Scotland if Starmer wasn't anti-Scottish.
How Scottish Labour is plotting to use the Commons to put SNP under magnifying glass
The party is set to chair the Scottish affairs committee and will use its remit to will investigate key devolved issues and grill nationalist figures such as Nicola Sturgeon
Fresh from overturning large SNP majorities at the general election, Scottish Labour is priming a potent weapon to help catapult Anas Sarwar into Bute House in 2026.
The Scottish affairs committee in the House of Commons may sound innocuous — and its activities rarely create headlines — but Labour looks set to chair the body for the first time in years and plans to deploy its powers to investigate key devolved issues and harry nationalist ministers.
There is “a huge political dimension to the work of the committee in the run-up to 2026”, said one Labour parliamentarian. “This will allow whole areas of policy to be put under the microscope.”
Scottish Labour, which lies in third place at Holyrood but is building momentum to install Sarwar as first minister, wants the chance to interrogate SNP figures such as Nicola Sturgeon in Westminster via the select committee.
Sturgeon was due to give evidence at the Scottish affairs committee before the general election was called. “She, or other previous first ministers and cabinet secretaries, can be called on relevant investigations,” the source said.
They added that there was “a long list of potential areas that could be looked at”, including NHS performance. “There is crucial ground to be laid for 2026.”
There are other potential political bruises for a Labour-dominated Scottish affairs committee to inflict. The Labour source also highlighted “the levels of young people absent from the labour market”, an area where Holyrood and Westminster should, they said, be collaborating.
https://www.thetimes.com/article/6ce15da8-7bb0-4c4d-abd2-a8697ff62946?shareToken=0ed9303ec40107abf834fd0d8e7fb7a5
What did you get out of the 2024 riots....4 bottles of cheap plonk, a pair of crocs and a criminal record.
So we’re not alone in our dimwittery
But
1. He is a non charismatic leader who has set out no vision for the UK
2. Despite the anomaly of FPTP he has been actively elected by about 20% of the population
3. The hard shit hasnt hit peoples wallets yet, watch the drop in October November
If Labour fail to deliver he will get very irritating very quickly
I don't think Starmer needs to worry much about popularity for 3 or more years. Indeed as TSE suggests, best to get the painful stuff done first. Indeed cracking down on the EDL may well gain a few voters back on the left and Muslim voters.
Secondly, he has never hidden the fact that for the majority of problems facing the country there is no easy simple and cheap solution. He is honest about the difficulty of fixing the Tory mess with very tight budgets and demographic headwinds. Starmerism is the opposite of Populism.
Secondly my statement on FPTP was making no judgement on FPTP, merely a mathematical statement that most governments get about 40% of the vote on a sort 70% turnout. So say 27/28% of active voters. Starmer is starting 7% down on active support.
My view.
This problem has been caused by smug politicians who have refused to listen to the concerns of British people. It has festered and now it has boiled over. Parliament must listen, Parliament must act but it must not blame the British people.
@mikeysmith
Gentle reminder that there was a general election 31 days ago, during which the British people were thoroughly listened to.
Lee is arguing that the British people are wrong, or at least that politicians are listening to the wrong British people.
@DPJHodges
"People feel they aren't being listened to". We know there's anger about immigration. It doesn't take riots to tell us that. But we don't hand public policy making to those who are burning down police stations and assaulting their black and Asian neighbours in the street.
“The latest Opinium poll for the Observer shows that Reeves’s personal ratings have plummeted in the wake of Monday’s statement in which she announced the [winter fuel] cut. They have fallen from +11% when she first became chancellor to -12% last week.”
I think Labour are strongly enough positioned to ride out a fair bit of unpopularity.
The ones to watch are Green. They did far better than I expected despite having ludicrous policies, and didn’t fade. They could be the Reform of the left, peeling away Labour support without gaining many seats.
Posted at 6.50 on last thread
1.42 Shapiro
5.9 Walz
16 Kelly
17.5 Beshear
40 Buttigieg
Now
1.46 Shapiro
5.2 Walz
14.5 Kelly
22 Beshear
36 Buttigieg
She has seriously damaged her credibility
https://x.com/StanCollymore/status/1819782317147099387?t=uXffR8uQBjW2v9QZRt3oqQ&s=19
The bravery of ordinary people can be amazing.
The events we have witnessed overnight in Sunderland were totally unacceptable. As they were in Southport earlier this week and in Harehills in Leeds a fortnight ago.
We should never excuse, or be apologists for, disorder whoever is responsible. Violence and thuggery is always unacceptable. There is no qualification or exception. And politicians on all sides must be willing to stand up and say so.
Saying the nation is "braced for disorder" is not only breathtakingly complacent, but both troubling and inadequate. The Government is now in danger of appearing to be swept away with events rather than maintaining control of them.
That is precisely why as Home Secretary I brought forward much stronger protections against disproportionate protest and disorder, in the teeth of fierce opposition. But it was the right thing to do and those powers must be used to their maximal extent now.
Now is a moment for national reflection and solidarity - to pull back from the wave of violence we have seen, to call it out for what it is - without fear or favour - and for Parliament to speak with one voice in condemnation. We either believe in the rule of law, or we do not.
That is why Parliament must be recalled immediately.
https://x.com/pritipatel/status/1819607591518892279
https://x.com/JamesCleverly/status/1819484265211744455?t=uUPfAErJy2Ca0i5bRDlyOA&s=19
The others are curiously quiet.
Last night thugs set fire to the Spellow Hub Library on County Road in Liverpool - a place opened last year to help people in one of the country’s most deprived areas with routes into work and education
They also set fire to a local shop
You don't think "Conservatives" should condemn this? Just how morally bankrupt are you?
Her problem is that this was obvious to anyone paying attention before the election. A re-elected Tory government would have had to do exactly the same. Pretty much all of our politicians lied to us and offered false promises based upon fantasy scenarios. Well, quelle surprise, as they say at the Olympics.
I don't have any interest in any excuses for the disgraceful behaviour of these thugs causing trouble. It is a fact, however, that ever more people are becoming disenchanted with conventional politics because no one is willing to admit the truth of where we are.
Can we invade Iraq again ?
Interesting article here
https://x.com/asentance/status/1819975239842881550?s=61
I won’t mince my words, as frankly, I am furious. I have been proud of how effectively fellow
@Conservatives have called out anti-Semitism since October 7th.
However, I am extremely disappointed, albeit unsurprised, that these same individuals are unable to denounce far-right racist bigotry and violence with the same fervour.
Top Tories like @SuellaBraverman @KemiBadenoch @pritipatel @JamesCleverly @RishiSunak @RobertJenrick @MelJStride and @TomTugendhat often tout our party as a model for the success of multiracial Britain when it suits them. And it is.
Yet, when it comes to confronting the racists attempting to undermine our multiracial democracy, it becomes politically inconvenient to call it out for what it is.
The Overton window has shifted so far that labelling racists as “racist” is now deemed too “woke” to risk the blowback! Let me tell you, it is right, not woke, to condemn the racists in our midst.
https://x.com/albieamankona/status/1820008152370221465
When it comes to the point where she needs to keep the voters on board who will believe her ?
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk
Starmer's whole leadership was based on a pack of lies, and he has not stopped lying ever since.
I mean, of course he is:
1. He's a Socialist
2. He's a lawyer
3. His lips are moving.
As to why that's the case, social media highlights a politicians' actions far more (as well as spreads misinformation and bad faith interpretations widely), so politicians just find message control much more difficult. The electorate is also more atomised - meaning it's just more difficult to be popular because a message can't hit home widely enough to be so as people think very different things and have entirely different belief systems and information sources.
For example, if you talk to a Corbynite, Starmer is dreadful because he's an authoritarian right-winger who is allowing Israel to commit 'genocide'. If you talk to those who think those rioting may have a point, Starmer is a liberal lefty lawyer who has allowed the streets to become mobbed by supporters of 'terrorism' and supported open door migration (despite the Tories having been in power).
Alternatively, many of those of working age think pensioners are ludicrously entitled and have been pandered to for too long, and resent taking the strain when govt. needs to balance the books, while many pensioners get angry whenever it's suggested their current settlement is overly generous and unfair to everyone else.
There's almost no reasonable position a politician could take that would make them widely popular - Starmer's calculation is, arguably like Cameron's, 2010-15, is that you don't need to be liked so long as people regard you as the most sensible stewards of the country and the 'right' people - swing voters - like you more than the other lot.
Istr ‘He has a lovely smile’ was one of their’s.
But it's way too early to judge the government on policy.
It has become trendy to say that AI is all fur coat and no knickers. I remember the same being said about the internet in general as the froth blew off dotcom.
The reality of it, is that by the time of the next election it should be plain to far more people just how impactful these technologies will be, most particularly machine learning incorporated into robots with humanoid form factor.
We are not going to have a labour shortage in the 2030s, far from it. We should be thinking right now about what that means.
1 in 3 who are eligible for pension credit, and therefore the new reformed energy benefit, don't claim it.
Reeves gave loads of warm words about getting more old poor folk to claim credit but they say that every time.
Will Trump have a poll lead ever again?
(Spoiler: yeah, probably with Rasmussen....)
It's quite likely that the AI hype will prove to be a bubble, and lots of tech investors will lose a heck of a lot of money. That's certainly an impact.