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Crucial polling on Kamala Harris – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,457
    edited July 2024
    Quite a few years ago, my Grandma came to stay with us and left a metal spoon in with a dish and put it in the microweevey with obvious disastrous results. As she was getting to well into her 80s at the time, I phoned my mother to say I think we might need to make sure Granny isn't losing it. My mother replied, no that's just your Grandma, she has a habit of breaking things.

    A week later, I was down a microweevey, a washing machine, a vaccum cleaner and a front door.

    The front door was particularly impressive for a 5ft nothing 85 year old woman. She got in a tangle with the lock and basically yanked it so hard it ripped the handle / locking mechanism off.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Anyone interested in Venezuela? Could Maduro actually lose?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,457

    Well well. The BBC have decided to focus on the new footage at Manchester Airport. Over to you Greater Manchester Police.

    I wonder if the blokes flashy lawyer might go rather quiet now.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844
    Cookie said:

    Aha - you've looked it up since this last came up! A fantastic series. Almost perfect sitcom.
    Debating point - which is the more perfect sitcom?

    Father Ted?

    or

    Dinnerladies?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,680
    TOPPING said:

    I think that's a reasonable take. Another one is that it was acknowledging the secularisation of western society, the arguable defeat of faith, and the nature of the new gods we are likely to worship.

    It is as much a critical analysis of our society as an offense to Christianity.
    The entire opening ceremony was utter pants.
    To elevate it to the status of intellectual discourse is a bit of a stretch.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    edited July 2024
    WillG said:

    The premise is a nonsense. The core strength of the West is not kindness. I have travelled to five continents and have seen far more extreme kindness on display from African shanty town dwellers or Central Asian herders than I typically see at home.

    No. The fundamental strength of the West is the Enlightenment and constitutional government. That is why we have been at the forefront of science for centuries and why the industrial revolution happened here.

    Christians just don't like to admit that, because they were directly plugging the opposite of those things for almost two millenia.
    Plenty of British scientists were Christians from Francis Bacon to Thomas Boyle and you would probably find more active Christians in an African shanty town than a British street now
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    edited July 2024

    Hugely ironic that Trump now always appears with God Bless the USA (Greenwood) as the intro theme tune.]


    Here's the lyric:

    "And I'm proud to be an American
    Where at least I know I'm free
    And I won't forget the men who died
    Who gave that right to me"


    Trump literally told John McCaine he was a loser for going to war for america and getting captured.
    Greenwood sang the same for President Reagan way back at the 1988 GOP convention too
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_neeH8pp34
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    KnightOut said:



    On what basis did Boris win 'from the right'?

    Nothing about the 2019-2024 felt right-wing to me. It strikes me that this is just falling into the trap of flawed thinking whereby positions on the political spectrum can be defined by arbitrary or transient factors like how hard a Brexit one prefers or, in the US, if you prefer the killing of foetuses or convicts.

    The only objectively right-wing government in recent memory was 2010-2016, even if that wasn't much. At least there was a stab at austerity and book-balancing; a vague commitment to streamlining and scrapping quangos and taking on the blob; a general sense that personal liberty and responsibility were important; that thing about the introduction of new legislation being conditional upon removing at least the same quantity of existing legislation, and so on.

    For a genuine right-winger (as opposed to a populist/nationalist/xenophobe or whatever) the Coalition years were an absolute utopia.

    But there is undoubtedly a perception that Cameron and his government was on and of 'the centre', despite plenty of evidence to the contrary. We have to decide what 'centre' actually means when we talk about winning elections from it.

    I'd be quite happy with a government that 'made the right noises' to convince people they were centrist, whilst actually getting on with doing right-wing stuff. Instead of the polar opposite which is what we appear to have had under Boris and Rishi.
    Economically Cameron and Clegg were right of centre, socially they were not, they kept free movement and introduced same sex marriage
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Nigelb said:

    The entire opening ceremony was utter pants.
    To elevate it to the status of intellectual discourse is a bit of a stretch.
    True dat

    And immensely damaging to the cause it thinks it was promoting. Anyone who thought that trans equals weird blokes in dresses will have come away saying Told you so.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 857

    Anyone interested in Venezuela? Could Maduro actually lose?

    I'm very interested in it, but have feck all knowledge so can't help you with your question.

    Goddammit I hope so though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    @PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: Suella Braverman is likely to drop out of the Tory leadership contest after most of her former aides and supporters switched en masse to Robert Jenrick
    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1817299230643392851
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    @PpollingNumbers
    #New General Election Poll - Pennsylvania

    🔵 Harris 48% (+1)
    🔴 Trump 47%

    Bullfinch Group - 800 RV - 7/25
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1816942840779538749
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 857

    Well well. The BBC have decided to focus on the new footage at Manchester Airport. Over to you Greater Manchester Police.

    Anyone genuinely got a problem with him kicking the guy in the head after that?

    Obv he shouldn't have done it, but we can't expect police to be autonomous without any human emotion.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    HYUFD said:

    Plenty of British scientists were Christians from Francis Bacon to Thomas Boyle and you would probably find more active Christians in an African shanty town than a British street now
    Robert Boyle?

    Magisterially wrong as usual.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,457
    edited July 2024

    Anyone genuinely got a problem with him kicking the guy in the head after that?

    Obv he shouldn't have done it, but we can't expect police to be autonomous without any human emotion.
    Did the guys acting like it was an MMA cage fight not think hmmm its an airport, there will be CCTV everywhere, the full video will come out, so perhaps not best idea to go big time on the police brutality angle.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    @CollinRugg
    JUST IN: Telecommunications company C Spire has removed all advertising from the Olympics after they mocked Christianity in their opening ceremony.

    C Spire is the sixth-largest wireless provider in the United States.

    "We were shocked by the mockery of the Last Supper during the opening ceremonies of the Paris Olympics. C Spire will be pulling our advertising from the Olympics," the company announced on X.

    Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves chimed in after the announcement.

    "I am proud to see the private sector in Mississippi step up and put their foot down. God will not be mocked. C Spire drew a common-sense, appropriate line."
    https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1817286135581933676
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352
    HYUFD said:

    @PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: Suella Braverman is likely to drop out of the Tory leadership contest after most of her former aides and supporters switched en masse to Robert Jenrick
    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1817299230643392851

    I despair.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,685

    Debating point - which is the more perfect sitcom?

    Father Ted?

    or

    Dinnerladies?
    Father Ted is funnier.

    Dinnerladies had pathos - which is rarer in a genuine comedy. (Not a "comedy drama", which is just an unfunny comedy.)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,317

    Did the guys acting like it was an MMA cage fight not think hmmm its an airport, there will be CCTV everywhere, the full video will come out, so perhaps not best idea to go big time on the police brutality angle.
    Doesn’t that also apply to PC Bootboy
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,457
    edited July 2024

    Doesn’t that also apply to PC Bootboy
    The PC has rightly been suspended, he clearly lost his temper, but I haven't seen him / his lawyer all over my tv screens claiming the unfairness. That was my point. Those there knew what the situation was, it probably best not to say anything if you were the ones swinging at 3 different police officers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010

    Robert Boyle?

    Magisterially wrong as usual.
    'Boyle was a devout and pious Anglican who keenly championed his faith. He sponsored educational and missionary activities and wrote a number of theological treatises.'
    https://www.britannica.com/topic/The-Christian-Virtuoso
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 857

    Doesn’t that also apply to PC Bootboy
    Is it reasonable to expect someone to act perfectly coolly seconds after a massive physical assault?

    Others will (and did) act better but I think his behaviour was within the bounds of acceptability in the circumstances.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    HYUFD said:

    'Boyle was a devout and pious Anglican who keenly championed his faith. He sponsored educational and missionary activities and wrote a number of theological treatises.'
    https://www.britannica.com/topic/The-Christian-Virtuoso
    Yes. He also wasn't called Thomas.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,680
    .
    HYUFD said:

    @CollinRugg
    JUST IN: Telecommunications company C Spire has removed all advertising from the Olympics after they mocked Christianity in their opening ceremony.

    C Spire is the sixth-largest wireless provider in the United States.

    "We were shocked by the mockery of the Last Supper during the opening ceremonies of the Paris Olympics. C Spire will be pulling our advertising from the Olympics," the company announced on X.

    Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves chimed in after the announcement.

    "I am proud to see the private sector in Mississippi step up and put their foot down. God will not be mocked. C Spire drew a common-sense, appropriate line."
    https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1817286135581933676

    “We were shocked” - idiots.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,457
    MAAAATTTTTTEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE.....

    Sadiq Khan’s ‘brat summer’ Ulez post provokes mockery
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/27/sadiq-khans-brat-summer-ulez-post-provokes-mockery/
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,317

    The PC has rightly been suspended, but I haven't seen him / his lawyer all over my tv screens claiming the unfairness.
    Presumably everyone who isn’t a Reform MP or a gammon getting overexcited on the sidelines (spot the difference) is staying away from claiming anything, possibly on legal advice. The family of the booted one seems to have been quite placatory.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,457

    Presumably everyone who isn’t a Reform MP or a gammon getting overexcited on the sidelines (spot the difference) is staying away from claiming anything, possibly on legal advice. The family of the booted one seems to have been quite placatory.
    Not just Reform MPs who have waded in.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,317
    Nigelb said:

    .

    “We were shocked” - idiots.
    God being all seeing obviously foresaw the mocking and let the heavens open.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,680

    God being all seeing obviously foresaw the mocking and let the heavens open.
    Given it’s been one if the most parodied Christian images for a good half century, he’s a bit slow on the uptake.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,255

    Debating point - which is the more perfect sitcom?

    Father Ted?

    or

    Dinnerladies?
    Dad's Army
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,982

    Debating point - which is the more perfect sitcom?

    Father Ted?

    or

    Dinnerladies?
    One Foot in the Grave
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,255
    I've read the plot of Deadpool and Wolverine.

    It's basically pants, isn't it.

    :(
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Nigelb said:

    .

    “We were shocked” - idiots.
    Why idiots? I was gobsmacked by the unrelenting crassness of the whole thing, am I an idiot? And as for the utter dickless cowardice of unilateral attacks on Christianity in the city of Charlie hebdo and bataclan in 2015 ... The longer people have to think about this the more contemptible the French are going to look.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,629

    Debating point - which is the more perfect sitcom?

    Father Ted?

    or

    Dinnerladies?
    Fawlty Towers
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,629

    We should all be free to mock. However I do think there is a question (mainly to be asked by French people) as to why it was considered appropriate to mount a tableaux that seemed to be calculatedly offensive to Christians as part of a celebration of sport. Why do the organisers wish to single out and offend Christians? It leaves a nasty taste. It would also leave a nasty taste if they'd done it to accountants, or gingers, or El Salvadorians, or stamp collectors. It's not that hard to find themes that everyone likes and that unite us.
    C-3PO: [to Chewbacca] He made a fair move. Screaming about it can't help you!
    Han Solo: Let him have it, it's not wise to upset a Wookiee.
    C-3PO: But sir, nobody worries about upsetting a droid.
    Han Solo: That's because droids don't pull people's arms out of their sockets when they lose. Wookiees are known to do that.
    C-3PO: I see your point, sir. [to R2-D2] I suggest a new strategy, Artoo: Let the Wookiee win!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,255
    Can we do spoiler talks on Deadpool and Wolverine? There are a lot of spoilers because of the massive amounts of memberberries in it. THERE ARE LOTS OF CAMEOS.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "Exclusive: Nate Silver joins prediction market startup as more people bet on news"

    https://www.axios.com/2024/07/16/nate-silver-polymarket
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    Sunset Times front page reporting that Labour might scrap HS2 between Euston and Old Oak to help pay for hotels for illegal immigrants and inflation busting public sector rises £20 billion gap in finances the Tories left

    I thought this section was already reliant on private money?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited July 2024
    Kamala Harris currently has a 44.44% chance of winning the election according to Betfair Sportsbook.

    https://www.betfair.com/betting/politics/s-2378961
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 857
    Any particular reason Shapiro is getting shorter and shorter?

    I'm not complaining as I'm long him (partly due to @HYUFD and someone else I respect who I thought was @Pulpstar but I don't actually think was (sorry unnamed respected person)... and partly due to my own anal-ysis) but not seeing any particular reason for the current tightening other than market coming in to where imo it should be?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,143
    Cookie said:

    Aha - you've looked it up since this last came up! A fantastic series. Almost perfect sitcom.
    And the linked video is in the account of DJT. It couldn't be... could it?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,143
    HYUFD said:

    @PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: Suella Braverman is likely to drop out of the Tory leadership contest after most of her former aides and supporters switched en masse to Robert Jenrick
    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1817299230643392851

    Jenrick is a Cambridge-educated lawyer.

    As is Suella.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Any particular reason Shapiro is getting shorter and shorter?

    I'm not complaining as I'm long him (partly due to @HYUFD and someone else I respect who I thought was @Pulpstar but I don't actually think was (sorry unnamed respected person)... and partly due to my own anal-ysis) but not seeing any particular reason for the current tightening other than market coming in to where imo it should be?

    Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania is IMHO a strong contender for Kamala Harris's VP choice. Personally impressed by his decisiveness as governor, for example in expediting (to put it mildly) repairs to major interstate highway critical to state and national transportation & economy. Reckon he'd be one of the better choices to go toe-to-toe with Sen. J.D. Vance.

    Do NOTE the following, reported today (Saturday):

    Newsweek - A coalition of public education advocacy organizations has formally urged Vice President Kamala Harris, who is running for president, not to select Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate over his support for private school vouchers.

    Shapiro, a popular governor of a crucial swing state, has been rumored to be a top choice for Harris. An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 850 Pennsylvanians conducted between July 22 and 23 found that 49 percent approve of Shapiro, while 31 percent disapprove. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent.

    https://www.newsweek.com/josh-shapiros-controversial-view-comes-back-haunt-him-amid-vp-buzz-1931078

    SSI - Teachers and teachers unions, national AND in each state, are major political players in the Democratic Party. Do NOT think they have a veto, but they will be heard.

    Personally am willing to go with anyone Kamala Harris is likely to select. With leading candidates still appearing to be PA Gov. Josh Shapiro, KY Gov. Andy Beshear or AZ Sen. Mark Kelly.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,143
    After the last two Olympics, it is mildly disconcerting to look at the results in the morning and find things exactly where they were last night.

    And it is just like old times to see heading the medals table, Australia.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited July 2024
    THIS is likely why odds on Shapiro have shortened -

    Politico.com - Philly’s Kamala Harris endorsement event becomes a ‘Josh Shapiro for VP’ party

    Union leaders and Democratic officials took turns endorsing the governor, who stood steps away on stage at an event ostensibly focused on Kamala Harris.

    PHILADELPHIA — The event was supposed to be all about Kamala Harris raking in the endorsements.

    But as labor unions and Democratic leaders rallied Friday to declare Pennsylvania’s support for her presidential bid, the focus was all on one man: Gov. Josh Shapiro.

    As he stood steps away on stage, Shapiro received endorsement after endorsement from a series of speakers hoping Harris would pick him as her vice presidential candidate. By the end of the event, the heads of two powerful unions, the longtime Joe Biden confidante who chairs the Philadelphia Democratic Party and Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker had all backed Shapiro to be Harris’ running mate — and yes, they threw their weight behind Harris, too. . . .

    It was an extraordinarily public display as the veepstakes — normally a sensitive process cloaked more in rumor — moves rapidly out of the shadows. . . .

    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/26/philly-unions-democrats-shapiro-00171491

    SSI - Note activity & publicity also for other VP possibles, for example former congresswoman Gabby Giffords, wife of AZ Sen. Mark Kelly he's definitely in the frame, campaigning with Harris in . . . wait for it . . . Pennsylvania.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,345
    DavidL said:

    Our first child didn't really sleep. My wife expressed some milk which we froze. When I got home from work she fell into bed leaving yours truly in charge. Sure enough baby L needed fed. I got the frozen milk from the freezer and put it in the microwave, forgetting that it had an internal cap. The bang was truly impressive and had my poor wife downstairs sharpish as baby L screamed in terror.

    It was 33 years ago but it still gets a mention from time to time.
    It's not just microwaves

    A place I knew had one of those old cast-iron pot-bellied stoves. One winter's day, someone put some food on to heat up as he got on with some work. There was an almighty bang, and we ran back to find the entire room neatly decorated with baked beans.

    We were lucky no-one was in there at the time. He had not pierced it.

    Oh, and the only time Mrs J has had to use her fire marshal training at work was when someone - a highly-educated engineer - put some food into the microwave one lunchtime. The food was still in it packaging and was not microwaveable...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    Fawlty Towers
    Porridge.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,143

    Porridge.
    They sell microwaveable porridge these days.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,099
    WillG said:

    The premise is a nonsense. The core strength of the West is not kindness. I have travelled to five continents and have seen far more extreme kindness on display from African shanty town dwellers or Central Asian herders than I typically see at home.

    No. The fundamental strength of the West is the Enlightenment and constitutional government. That is why we have been at the forefront of science for centuries and why the industrial revolution happened here.

    Christians just don't like to admit that, because they were directly plugging the opposite of those things for almost two millenia.
    The fastest social, intellectual and scientific progress has typically happened where religion has been tolerant and weak. The early Islamic world was ahead of Europe until the growing strength of the new religion inhibited questioning and invention, and the mantle passed to catholic Europe during the rennaisance. With the Catholic counter-reformation and the growth of Protestantism, Northern Europe took the lead.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,099
    HYUFD said:

    @PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: Suella Braverman is likely to drop out of the Tory leadership contest after most of her former aides and supporters switched en masse to Robert Jenrick
    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1817299230643392851

    The new leader would do well to consider the example of Corbyn and the opportunity that getting rid of Suella presents him or her.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,143

    THIS is likely why odds on Shapiro have shortened -

    Politico.com - Philly’s Kamala Harris endorsement event becomes a ‘Josh Shapiro for VP’ party

    Union leaders and Democratic officials took turns endorsing the governor, who stood steps away on stage at an event ostensibly focused on Kamala Harris.

    PHILADELPHIA — The event was supposed to be all about Kamala Harris raking in the endorsements.

    But as labor unions and Democratic leaders rallied Friday to declare Pennsylvania’s support for her presidential bid, the focus was all on one man: Gov. Josh Shapiro.

    As he stood steps away on stage, Shapiro received endorsement after endorsement from a series of speakers hoping Harris would pick him as her vice presidential candidate. By the end of the event, the heads of two powerful unions, the longtime Joe Biden confidante who chairs the Philadelphia Democratic Party and Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker had all backed Shapiro to be Harris’ running mate — and yes, they threw their weight behind Harris, too. . . .

    It was an extraordinarily public display as the veepstakes — normally a sensitive process cloaked more in rumor — moves rapidly out of the shadows. . . .

    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/26/philly-unions-democrats-shapiro-00171491

    SSI - Note activity & publicity also for other VP possibles, for example former congresswoman Gabby Giffords, wife of AZ Sen. Mark Kelly he's definitely in the frame, campaigning with Harris in . . . wait for it . . . Pennsylvania.

    You have persuaded me to re-enter the VP nominee market. For small stakes, I have backed Josh Shapiro at a standout 11/4 with BetVictor, and also Andy Beshear who is a long price for someone who seems from this side of the Atlantic still to be in the frame.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,099
    edited July 2024
    HYUFD said:

    Economically Cameron and Clegg were right of centre, socially they were not, they kept free movement and introduced same sex marriage
    Economics is the cake and culture is the icing. Johnson’s platform was essentially a left wing conservative one, where he humoured the culture warriors on the right against his own instincts, rather as Trump has and does.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,476
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. viewcode, not much of a cinema-goer but what I've heard is that it's not a great story but that if you want to see Deadpool and Wolverine doing stuff the chemistry is pretty good.

    Anyway, time for me to peruse some betting markets.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,143
    DWP in benefits balls-up shocker.

    Thousands of people are seeking help with debt after the government paid them benefits, only to then be told they were not entitled to the money and must repay it.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpv36wznqvzo
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,616

    It's not just microwaves

    A place I knew had one of those old cast-iron pot-bellied stoves. One winter's day, someone put some food on to heat up as he got on with some work. There was an almighty bang, and we ran back to find the entire room neatly decorated with baked beans.

    We were lucky no-one was in there at the time. He had not pierced it.

    Oh, and the only time Mrs J has had to use her fire marshal training at work was when someone - a highly-educated engineer - put some food into the microwave one lunchtime. The food was still in it packaging and was not microwaveable...
    This thread is sounding like a justification for Lee Anderson's cooking lessons.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,394
    IanB2 said:

    The new leader would do well to consider the example of Corbyn and the opportunity that getting rid of Suella presents him or her.
    Unlike Corbyn, Braverman has plenty of friends in the party aparat.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,616
    IanB2 said:

    Economics is the cake and culture is the icing. Johnson’s platform was essentially a left wing conservative one, where he humoured the culture warriors on the right against his own instincts, rather as Trump has and does.
    I'm not really sure about "against his own instincts".

    Trump's instincts seem to me to be to look for marks and take them to the cleaners, and indulge himself whether what he wants is within or outside societal expected norms or the law.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,616
    edited July 2024

    They sell microwaveable porridge these days.
    Yes - I use that as breakfast base a couple of times a week.

    It's rendered klutz-proof by the process requiring it to be put in a receptacle.

    Now, if Ambrosia made tinned porridge more PB kitchens would be redecorated more often.

    (And a belated good morning everyone; thing to do so I've avoiding Dawkinsite reinventions of history.)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,476
    Betting Post

    F1: rather less confident than last week but split one stake with two-thirds at 3.5 on the 2nd driver to lead lap 1 and one-third at 7 on the 3rd driver to lead lap 1.

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2024/07/belgium-pre-race-2024.html
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 439
    edited July 2024
    Just spent some time going back over that Henry Jackson polling of British muslims.

    Terrifying.

    Labour have got a hell of a lot of work to do on integration;

    https://henryjacksonsociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/HJS-Deck-200324-Final.pdf
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,099
    MattW said:

    I'm not really sure about "against his own instincts".

    Trump's instincts seem to me to be to look for marks and take them to the cleaners, and indulge himself whether what he wants is within or outside societal expected norms or the law.
    Trump used to be a Democrat, and only 'found' any sort of religion once it became politically convenient.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,143
    IanB2 said:

    Trump used to be a Democrat, and only 'found' any sort of religion once it became politically convenient.
    Shades of non-churchgoing Ronald Reagan somehow convincing voters he was more religious than an actual Sunday School teacher.
    https://baptistnews.com/article/new-book-features-transcripts-of-jimmy-carters-sunday-school-lessons-while-president/
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033

    It's not just microwaves

    A place I knew had one of those old cast-iron pot-bellied stoves. One winter's day, someone put some food on to heat up as he got on with some work. There was an almighty bang, and we ran back to find the entire room neatly decorated with baked beans.

    We were lucky no-one was in there at the time. He had not pierced it.

    Oh, and the only time Mrs J has had to use her fire marshal training at work was when someone - a highly-educated engineer - put some food into the microwave one lunchtime. The food was still in it packaging and was not microwaveable...
    Also those tins of treacle pudding that you put in a pan with water and boil. It's not a good idea to let it boil dry.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,143
    Your car is spying on you – but police won’t say if they’re using the data
    ...
    Modern cars and vehicles typically contain 75 or more computer systems, which record everything from when doors are opened to gear changes and climate control settings, through to information from mobile phones synched with infotainment systems. According to one estimate, a normal car generates 25GB of data for every hour of use – roughly three times the average amount consumed each month by a mobile phone user.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/car-spying-police-data-security-3187756

    Police forces have contracts with software extraction firms but refuse FOI requests to say whether they use this technology. Spoiler: they probably do. PB's bank robbers are advised to take the bus.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668

    Looks like more CCTV footage of the incident at Manchester Airport is now out. Shows the fracas that lead to the man being kicked on the ground by a police officer. A female officer is floored after being punched in the face and the object of the kick had wrestled a police officer to the ground. Can we expect the BBC to now focus on the story with the full context available or will it be quietly dropped?

    Doesn't seem to be featuring highly on the website.

    Currently 2nd item on the BBC News website as I see it. Why do you keep trying to push that the BBC aren’t reporting certain stories when they are?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,507

    Anyone interested in Venezuela? Could Maduro actually lose?

    He’s going to lose, but he’s lost the two previous elections and is still firmly in power. He controls the courts, the civil service, the army and the police. The will of the people, most of whom hate his guts, is a detail (as with say Lukashenko or Mugabe).

    The more pertinent and interesting point is he has alienated all his potential allies abroad by saying very publicly he will ignore the election result. Both Brazil and Argentina have rebuked him for that and as a result he has refused to allow the election monitors he invited from those countries into Venezuela. The EU and Spain also appear to be fed up with him.

    A more worrying thing then is, what will he do when he sees how utterly hated he is? Might his sabre rattling over Essequibo turn into an actual invasion and plunge the continent into war?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,345
    ydoethur said:

    He’s going to lose, but he’s lost the two previous elections and is still firmly in power. He controls the courts, the civil service, the army and the police. The will of the people, most of whom hate his guts, is a detail (as with say Lukashenko or Mugabe).

    The more pertinent and interesting point is he has alienated all his potential allies abroad by saying very publicly he will ignore the election result. Both Brazil and Argentina have rebuked him for that and as a result he has refused to allow the election monitors he invited from those countries into Venezuela. The EU and Spain also appear to be fed up with him.

    A more worrying thing then is, what will he do when he sees how utterly hated he is? Might his sabre rattling over Essequibo turn into an actual invasion and plunge the continent into war?
    I wrote a threader about Venezuela and Guyana last December.
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/11808/a-land-of-many-black-waters-politicalbetting-com/p1

    I've been vaguely keeping up with things over there, and IMV a conflict is certainly possible. Maduro is ramping up for one, in a similar manner to how Russia did near Ukraine in 2021, moving troops and logistics to the border. Although Venezuela is not Russia, Guyana is not Ukraine, and Maduro is not Putin... Well, actually, I'm not to sure about that last one.

    I think a 'creeping' invasion is likely, given the remoteness of the border area. Venezuela moves 'settlers' in; encouraging the indigenous peoples out, then moves the army in to 'protect' the settlers.

    The Guardian had a recent write-up of the situation:
    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/article/2024/jul/21/venezuela-guyana-latin-america-tensions-rise-maduro-essequibo-border-dispute-support-elections-oil-indigenous
    And CNN:
    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/14/americas/venezuela-essequibo-guyana-csis-intl-latam/index.html
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,680

    Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania is IMHO a strong contender for Kamala Harris's VP choice. Personally impressed by his decisiveness as governor, for example in expediting (to put it mildly) repairs to major interstate highway critical to state and national transportation & economy. Reckon he'd be one of the better choices to go toe-to-toe with Sen. J.D. Vance.

    Do NOTE the following, reported today (Saturday):

    Newsweek - A coalition of public education advocacy organizations has formally urged Vice President Kamala Harris, who is running for president, not to select Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate over his support for private school vouchers.

    Shapiro, a popular governor of a crucial swing state, has been rumored to be a top choice for Harris. An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 850 Pennsylvanians conducted between July 22 and 23 found that 49 percent approve of Shapiro, while 31 percent disapprove. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent.

    https://www.newsweek.com/josh-shapiros-controversial-view-comes-back-haunt-him-amid-vp-buzz-1931078

    SSI - Teachers and teachers unions, national AND in each state, are major political players in the Democratic Party. Do NOT think they have a veto, but they will be heard.

    Personally am willing to go with anyone Kamala Harris is likely to select. With leading candidates still appearing to be PA Gov. Josh Shapiro, KY Gov. Andy Beshear or AZ Sen. Mark Kelly.
    There's also Cooper, who you could make a pretty good case for.
    The reality is that she's spoiled for choice.

    Shapiro is probably favourite, but it's far from a certainty - and his odds are too short for me to be interested.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    ydoethur said:

    He’s going to lose, but he’s lost the two previous elections and is still firmly in power. He controls the courts, the civil service, the army and the police. The will of the people, most of whom hate his guts, is a detail (as with say Lukashenko or Mugabe).

    The more pertinent and interesting point is he has alienated all his potential allies abroad by saying very publicly he will ignore the election result. Both Brazil and Argentina have rebuked him for that and as a result he has refused to allow the election monitors he invited from those countries into Venezuela. The EU and Spain also appear to be fed up with him.

    A more worrying thing then is, what will he do when he sees how utterly hated he is? Might his sabre rattling over Essequibo turn into an actual invasion and plunge the continent into war?
    But on the other hand, Corbyn is probably still on side.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,099
    ydoethur said:

    He’s going to lose, but he’s lost the two previous elections and is still firmly in power. He controls the courts, the civil service, the army and the police. The will of the people, most of whom hate his guts, is a detail (as with say Lukashenko or Mugabe).

    The more pertinent and interesting point is he has alienated all his potential allies abroad by saying very publicly he will ignore the election result. Both Brazil and Argentina have rebuked him for that and as a result he has refused to allow the election monitors he invited from those countries into Venezuela. The EU and Spain also appear to be fed up with him.

    A more worrying thing then is, what will he do when he sees how utterly hated he is? Might his sabre rattling over Essequibo turn into an actual invasion and plunge the continent into war?
    He has all that, yet still can't fix an election!

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,661
    Good morning.

    I have just seen the front page of the Express. I think I need to take out a subscription.

    #Priti4Leader

    Sir Keir
    Sir Ed
    Dame Priti

    It all makes sense.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,680

    Why idiots? I was gobsmacked by the unrelenting crassness of the whole thing, am I an idiot? And as for the utter dickless cowardice of unilateral attacks on Christianity in the city of Charlie hebdo and bataclan in 2015 ... The longer people have to think about this the more contemptible the French are going to look.
    I was a bit surprised by how poor the whole ceremony was.
    Anyone 'shocked' by a parody of the last supper - which as I noted earlier is one of the most common pieces of Christian iconography to be parodied over the last half century - needs to get out more.

    And was it an 'attack' on Christianity - of just something slightly crass, that's offensive to Catholics ?
    Half of the Christian sects have no time for iconography anyway.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,476
    Not planning on playing it but Fallout London apparently has John Bercow in it as a voice actor, and maybe some other British Parliamentarians too.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    Currently 2nd item on the BBC News website as I see it. Why do you keep trying to push that the BBC aren’t reporting certain stories when they are?
    It probably reflects something deep in their editorial tendencies. Twenty year olds having a free run and jumping on to the popular 'woke' narrative when a story breaks then eventually they get reigned back in by the wiser, older tendencies within the organisation whose power is declining. It is an example of why the organisation needs to be urgently reformed if it is to have any claim on objectivity. Otherwise it is just 'woke clickbait' peddled with a misleading claim on being a 'public service broadcaster'.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,502
    edited July 2024

    Sunset Times front page reporting that Labour might scrap HS2 between Euston and Old Oak to help pay for hotels for illegal immigrants and inflation busting public sector rises £20 billion gap in finances the Tories left

    Hopefully that's just a start to scrapping the whole misbegotten project. Building an absurdly expensive railway from somewhere near central Birmingham without any real links to a desolate part of west London is the biggest waste of money since the London Olympics. It may have made sense at £30 billion, it's crazy at £70 billion or £100 billion or whatever the current guess is - by far the most expensive rail line in the world per mile I think. Unless of course the idea is to show the rest of the world that we can do disastrously overrunning white elephants with no coherent business case.

    We should leave that honour to the Californians and spend our money on something more useful, like Crossrail 2, the Bakerloo Line extension, or even, shock, giving taxpayers a break.
  • That is because frankly you are an extremist lunatic. As your post proves.
    If thinking that:

    (a) Spending £1.8 billion on a tunnel under open countryside (rather than say, £2.5 billion for a longer one) represents an reasonable compromise between spending taxpayers money and restoring the tranqulity of an important historical site (which is generous with taxpayers money)

    (b) The UN is utterly corrupt.

    Makes you an extremist lunatic, then.

    (a) the centre ground is tiny and will inevitably be overrun by extremists.

    (b) Rachel Reeves needs to find tens of billions for mental health facilities pronto.

    Still, good ad-hom.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668
    Nigelb said:

    I was a bit surprised by how poor the whole ceremony was.
    Anyone 'shocked' by a parody of the last supper - which as I noted earlier is one of the most common pieces of Christian iconography to be parodied over the last half century - needs to get out more.

    And was it an 'attack' on Christianity - of just something slightly crass, that's offensive to Catholics ?
    Half of the Christian sects have no time for iconography anyway.
    It’s also just a really bad pun in French: Scène de la Cène sur la Seine. “La Cène” being the last supper.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668
    darkage said:

    It probably reflects something deep in their editorial tendencies. Twenty year olds having a free run and jumping on to the popular 'woke' narrative when a story breaks then eventually they get reigned back in by the wiser, older tendencies within the organisation whose power is declining. It is an example of why the organisation needs to be urgently reformed if it is to have any claim on objectivity. Otherwise it is just 'woke clickbait' peddled with a misleading claim on being a 'public service broadcaster'.
    Or it’s right wingers seeing conspiracies everywhere.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,143

    But on the other hand, Corbyn is probably still on side.
    Some of us hoped that now Corbyn has been sidelined, we'd never have to hear about Venezuela again.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,655

    NEW THREAD

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited July 2024
    Nigelb said:

    I was a bit surprised by how poor the whole ceremony was.
    Anyone 'shocked' by a parody of the last supper - which as I noted earlier is one of the most common pieces of Christian iconography to be parodied over the last half century - needs to get out more.

    And was it an 'attack' on Christianity - of just something slightly crass, that's offensive to Catholics ?
    Half of the Christian sects have no time for iconography anyway.
    It’s what comedians refer to as looking for ‘clapter’, saying the ‘right’ thing almost in the hope of upsetting the ‘wrong’ people. It’s being deliberately and needlessly divisive and offensive, because Christians are seen as ‘fair game’ for mockery.

    Not sure what on Earth it has to do with sportsmanship, inclusiveness, sport, or even France and French culture, which is what we are supposed to be celebrating at the Olympics.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,295
    Sandpit said:

    ‘Peak car’ was around 2010-12. Low-stressed naturally-aspirated engines and no mobile connectivity. A car that will run forever with basic servicing, and doesn’t spy on you.
    I'm utterly fed up with our latest VW Passat estate having had Passats and their Skoda cousins for the previous 15 years and been quite happy with them.

    My top dislikes are all related to the car's IT:

    1. The awful lane control that you have to switch off every time you get in the car.
    2. The regular emergency stops it enforces for such dangers as: a car parked in the lay-by ahead, narrow Dorset roads, etc.
    3. The apparent need to have register and use a VW online account to use half the car's features.
    4. Its seemingly random inability to connect to my iPhone CarPlay on about 10% of occasions.

    Seriously tempted to buy a 15 year old car next time.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509

    They sell microwaveable porridge these days.
    Isn't all porridge microwaveable anyway. We microwave it. Seems to work ok, except when it explodes and sets like concrete all over the microwave if you get the setting wrong.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited July 2024
    Fishing said:

    Hopefully that's just a start to scrapping the whole misbegotten project. Building an absurdly expensive railway from somewhere near central Birmingham without any real links to a desolate part of west London is the biggest waste of money since the London Olympics. It may have made sense at £30 billion, it's crazy at £70 billion or £100 billion or whatever the current guess is - by far the most expensive rail line in the world per mile I think. Unless of course the idea is to show the rest of the world that we can do disastrously overrunning white elephants with no coherent business case.

    We should leave that honour to the Californians and spend our money on something more useful, like Crossrail 2, the Bakerloo Line extension, or even, shock, giving taxpayers a break.
    The birmingham branch is just a nice to have bolt on.

    The core route is Euston to Lichfield.

    The main (unspoken) reason it is being built is to provide an extra pair pf tracks between Euston and Lichfield to allow more commuter trains to run between Euston and Rugby due to three huge new towns being built on the route (Hemel, MK and Northampton), also to fit some more goods trains on it.

    (Compare the number of trains per hour in Rush Hour stopping at Northampton and Bedford and you get the picture and start to understand why commuter train overcrowding is epic on that line (to the extent that large numbers of people drive from places like Northampton and Daventry down the M1 to Flitwick and Harlington instead)

    However, for it to work it needs to go to Euston. Terminating it at Wormwood Scrubs Parkway turns the whole thing into a white elephant, unless your nearest and dearest are incarcerated there, in which case it is quite handy.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Sandpit said:

    ‘Peak car’ was around 2010-12. Low-stressed naturally-aspirated engines and no mobile connectivity. A car that will run forever with basic servicing, and doesn’t spy on you.
    Peak car ended with the first gatso camera in 1992
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,757
    IanB2 said:

    The fastest social, intellectual and scientific progress has typically happened where religion has been tolerant and weak. The early Islamic world was ahead of Europe until the growing strength of the new religion inhibited questioning and invention, and the mantle passed to catholic Europe during the rennaisance. With the Catholic counter-reformation and the growth of Protestantism, Northern Europe took the
    lead.
    I’m not sure that’s religion per se

    It’s more where the institutions preserving the status quo are weak then change can happen
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited July 2024
    Deleted
  • Deleted
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844
    F1? I know that he is somehow starting P2 but Perez will still manage to finish in the Perez Position (P17)
This discussion has been closed.