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Will Nikki Haley be proven right? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,046
edited August 4 in General
Will Nikki Haley be proven right? – politicalbetting.com

Nikki Haley (in January): “The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the one who wins this election." pic.twitter.com/VkN8cT85su

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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,731
    Yes, says my money.

    For now.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,378
    I hope so!
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Yes

    Signed: My Book
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,065
    In fairness to Trump, he isn't an 80 year old candidate (although he will turn 80 in office if elected).

    My view is Trump remains relatively narrow favourite. So a decent chance Haley will be proved right, and Democrats have improved their chances by ditching Biden, but on balance I think Trump will get over the line (sadly).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,344
    The contract for the Bibby Stockholm barge, which houses asylum seekers off the coast of Dorset, will not be renewed past January, the Home Office has announced.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg640n3372qo
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,503
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    In fairness to Trump, he isn't an 80 year old candidate (although he will turn 80 in office if elected).

    My view is Trump remains relatively narrow favourite. So a decent chance Haley will be proved right, and Democrats have improved their chances by ditching Biden, but on balance I think Trump will get over the line (sadly).

    I agree, for Harris to win she needs everything to turn out perfectly whereas Trump can get away with not having a perfect night and winning.

    By the start of September we need to see some polls showing Harris winning the popular vote.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,344
    A potential rebellion by some Labour MPs over the two-child benefit cap looks likely to peter out after Sir Lindsay Hoyle failed to select their amendment.

    More than a dozen Labour MPs signed an amendment to the King’s Speech calling for the cap to be abolished but Sir Lindsay, the Commons Speaker, announced at lunchtime that he had not selected it for a vote later today.

    He has selected a similar amendment put forward by the SNP but Labour MPs are unlikely to vote for an SNP amendment given the political optics of doing so.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,344
    The two other sites are also expected to be closed down by Labour. They are RAF Scampton in Lincolnshire which has yet to take any migrants two years after it was designated to take 1,700 and RAF Wethersfield in Essex which has fewer than 600 on it despite being commissioned for 1,500.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/23/politics-latest-news-starmer-labour-kings-speech/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,292
    Well it’s going to be interesting to find out.

    Kamala is still, astonishingly for someone who’s been the VP for three years, pretty much an unknown quantity to many Americans. Her polling has been way behind. Biden’s until recently, so it will be really interesting to see what happens in the next couple of months as she becomes more prominent.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,292
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The two other sites are also expected to be closed down by Labour. They are RAF Scampton in Lincolnshire which has yet to take any migrants two years after it was designated to take 1,700 and RAF Wethersfield in Essex which has fewer than 600 on it despite being commissioned for 1,500.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/23/politics-latest-news-starmer-labour-kings-speech/

    So where exactly does the government intend to house these people?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,210
    Zerohedge claims Harris is 9 points behind Trump

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stumbling-out-gate-harris-starts-race-down-9-points-even-worse-biden
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,503
    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The two other sites are also expected to be closed down by Labour. They are RAF Scampton in Lincolnshire which has yet to take any migrants two years after it was designated to take 1,700 and RAF Wethersfield in Essex which has fewer than 600 on it despite being commissioned for 1,500.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/23/politics-latest-news-starmer-labour-kings-speech/

    So where exactly does the government intend to house these people?
    Middlesbrough.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,378
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The contract for the Bibby Stockholm barge, which houses asylum seekers off the coast of Dorset, will not be renewed past January, the Home Office has announced.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg640n3372qo

    Bit of a boost for South Dorset's new Labour MP.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,344
    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The two other sites are also expected to be closed down by Labour. They are RAF Scampton in Lincolnshire which has yet to take any migrants two years after it was designated to take 1,700 and RAF Wethersfield in Essex which has fewer than 600 on it despite being commissioned for 1,500.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/23/politics-latest-news-starmer-labour-kings-speech/

    So where exactly does the government intend to house these people?
    They are claiming they don't need them as the problem will be sorted by then.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,500
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    In fairness to Trump, he isn't an 80 year old candidate (although he will turn 80 in office if elected).

    My view is Trump remains relatively narrow favourite. So a decent chance Haley will be proved right, and Democrats have improved their chances by ditching Biden, but on balance I think Trump will get over the line (sadly).

    I agree, for Harris to win she needs everything to turn out perfectly whereas Trump can get away with not having a perfect night and winning.

    By the start of September we need to see some polls showing Harris winning the popular vote.
    I think you're somewhat exaggerating the situation. Harris has a lot of work to do. She has to build the Harris brand basically from scratch in a couple of months. However there is so much in her favour that it should be quite a forgiving path.

    Trump on the other hand is a bit short on ideas as to how to fight this. He probably can't do nothing, but there are a lot of risks about rerunning the ideas he used against Clinton.

    I currently have the race as 50/50, and have a suitably large bet accordingly. I'm factoring in a little bit of an ongoing improvement in Harris' numbers in this, but I suspect I may be underestimating that. (FWIW I think we'll see polls with almost no lead for Trump soon_)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,439
    Leon said:

    Zerohedge claims Harris is 9 points behind Trump

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stumbling-out-gate-harris-starts-race-down-9-points-even-worse-biden

    She's not.

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris gives the flavour - they've cherry picked her worst poll.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    Zerohedge claims Harris is 9 points behind Trump

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stumbling-out-gate-harris-starts-race-down-9-points-even-worse-biden

    Mate.

    Zerohedge.

    The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.

    What have OGH and told you about hypothetical polls.
    I wonder why Leon, Mr Beds, William Glenn and HY feel the need to ramp Trump using dodgy data on a blog where almost none of us have a vote? Seems odd to me.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    edited July 23
    Sandpit said:


    Didn’t Ford learn from the backlash to the Mustang brand in the US, for exactly the same stunt?

    They did learn because the Mach-E has been a huge success which is why they are doing it again with the Capri.

    The backlash, such as it was, was from people who would never buy one anyway.

    GM have also learned because they are doing exactly the same thing with the Corvette brand.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,382
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A potential rebellion by some Labour MPs over the two-child benefit cap looks likely to peter out after Sir Lindsay Hoyle failed to select their amendment.

    More than a dozen Labour MPs signed an amendment to the King’s Speech calling for the cap to be abolished but Sir Lindsay, the Commons Speaker, announced at lunchtime that he had not selected it for a vote later today.

    He has selected a similar amendment put forward by the SNP but Labour MPs are unlikely to vote for an SNP amendment given the political optics of doing so.

    Which signifies so much as to what is wrong with Westminster politics today. Voting for or against something should not depend on who is doing the proposing.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,452
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A potential rebellion by some Labour MPs over the two-child benefit cap looks likely to peter out after Sir Lindsay Hoyle failed to select their amendment.

    More than a dozen Labour MPs signed an amendment to the King’s Speech calling for the cap to be abolished but Sir Lindsay, the Commons Speaker, announced at lunchtime that he had not selected it for a vote later today.

    He has selected a similar amendment put forward by the SNP but Labour MPs are unlikely to vote for an SNP amendment given the political optics of doing so.

    Which signifies so much as to what is wrong with Westminster politics today. Voting for or against something should not depend on who is doing the proposing.
    It also relates to the fact that Labour won a by-election in Falkirk a year or so back, against the SNP, by promising to adopt SNP policy and not to follow SKS and Tory policy on the two-child cap.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,500
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    Didn’t Ford learn from the backlash to the Mustang brand in the US, for exactly the same stunt?

    They did learn because the Mach-E has been a huge success which is why they are doing it again with the Capri.

    The backlash, such as it was, was from people who would never buy one anyway.

    GM have also learned because they are doing exactly the same thing with the Corvette brand.
    What car do you think Biggles would buy today?

    (Disclaimer: I have a Macan, which I really love, but I know you disapprove.)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,452
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The two other sites are also expected to be closed down by Labour. They are RAF Scampton in Lincolnshire which has yet to take any migrants two years after it was designated to take 1,700 and RAF Wethersfield in Essex which has fewer than 600 on it despite being commissioned for 1,500.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/23/politics-latest-news-starmer-labour-kings-speech/

    TBF both illegally converted, ISTR, in contravention of planning and other laws.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,344
    edited July 23
    Most middle class complaint ever, she will miss a wedding,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13662619/Mother-JSO-activist-jailed-M25-sentence.html

    The way she is going on you would think, her daughter just got overexcited that one time...JSO literally have a week in the life of Cressie...bouncing from arrest to court, back to arrest. And of course acting like a spoilt child refusing to engage with the court proceedings.

    A week in resistance with Cressie
    https://juststopoil.org/2023/11/20/a-week-in-resistance-with-cressie/
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,452
    edited July 23
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Most middle class complaint ever, she will miss a wedding,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13662619/Mother-JSO-activist-jailed-M25-sentence.html

    The way she is going on you would think, her daughter just got overexcited that one time...JSO literally have a week in the life of Cressie...bouncing from arrest to court, back to arrest. And of course acting like a spoilt child refusing to engage with the court proceedings.

    A week in resistance with Cressie
    https://juststopoil.org/2023/11/20/a-week-in-resistance-with-cressie/

    That's all very coal in the bath stuff. You're basically claiming that working-class* people don't have weddings, and don't get upset at missing family events such as weddings and funerals.

    *And upper-class.
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,596
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The two other sites are also expected to be closed down by Labour. They are RAF Scampton in Lincolnshire which has yet to take any migrants two years after it was designated to take 1,700 and RAF Wethersfield in Essex which has fewer than 600 on it despite being commissioned for 1,500.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/23/politics-latest-news-starmer-labour-kings-speech/

    So where exactly does the government intend to house these people?
    Middlesbrough.
    Poor sods. They’ll be demanding to go back to Sangatte.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A potential rebellion by some Labour MPs over the two-child benefit cap looks likely to peter out after Sir Lindsay Hoyle failed to select their amendment.

    More than a dozen Labour MPs signed an amendment to the King’s Speech calling for the cap to be abolished but Sir Lindsay, the Commons Speaker, announced at lunchtime that he had not selected it for a vote later today.

    He has selected a similar amendment put forward by the SNP but Labour MPs are unlikely to vote for an SNP amendment given the political optics of doing so.

    Which signifies so much as to what is wrong with Westminster politics today. Voting for or against something should not depend on who is doing the proposing.
    If the SNP really cared about the limit they would have dropped their amendment and ensured the Labour rebel one went through.

    There are optics on all side here and the SNP have been stupid enough to provide an escape route for Labour...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,995
    No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,418
    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    viewcode said:

    Cookie said:

    Richardr said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    ON topic, the thesis of the threader is predicated on Things Staying Basically the Same

    That is almost certainly not going to happen. Consider how the world has changed in the quarter century since 2000. From 9/11 to the smartphone to social media and the pandemic. The rise of China. The rapid DECLINE in birthrates. The return of the red kite. Masterchef

    About the only thing that stayed entirely the same in that time is Gareth Southgate being a loser

    Now extrapolate forward another quarter century. Change will probably accelerate (it usually does). The young people in the threader might not own their homes - not because of price rises - but because they have become geloid electro-blobs living in deep undersea vats watching on 5D screens as Gareth Southgate loses

    Will these people be "Tories"? Green? A kind of humanoid amphibian?

    My guess is today's political terms will be laughably dated, irrelevant and arcane, it will be like us looking back to the politics of the 14th century to see if the Lib Dems benefited from the Black Death

    Right, I'm quibbling for the sake of it here - but I would argue that it is shocking how little things have changed since 2000.
    I look out at my suburban street, and it could be any time in the past 25 years. Culturally, we have stood still. Clothes, cars, pop music, film, television - yes, they've changed a bit, but not that much. Imagine travelling back in time to 1999 and stepping outside and having a wander about; turn the radio on; watch a bit of telly. A bit of an 'oh, that's different', but not much. Now imagine being in 1999 and time travelling back to 1974; or being in 1974 and travelling back to 1949; or being in 1949 and travelling back to 1924. And so on. If they tried to make Life on Mars now, it wouldn't work, because 25 years ago is so unremarkably different to today.
    Yes, tech has changed. Geopolitics has changed. But culture has changed remarkably little compared to any previous 25 year period.
    Not commenting on the others, but TV and film have changed immensely in that period. Not only have all people got digital TV with many more channels compared with 2000, but the way it is consumed has gone through a revolution. No longer are there "water cooler" moments. We watch TV on catch up, recordings, and interactive online services. Many films are made for Amazon and Netflix with at most a week or so in the cinemas. Aside from sport, younger people including children barely watch linear TV.

    Per OFCOM a couple of years ago, people aged 16-24 watch a third of the linear TV the equivalent generation watched ten years earlier, and 90% of that generation "head straight to streaming, on-demand and social video services" when looking for what to watch. They tend to watch on phones, computers, and the like rather than TVs.
    That's true - I'm thinking more of what it actually looks like. A sitcom from 2024 doesn't look that much different to a sitcom from 2000. A sitcom from 2000 looks quite different from a sitcom from 1975.
    But the tech is certainly different. Technologically different but culturally the same.
    Cars look incredibly different. Much larger, organic and angular, the LCD/HID headlights are distinct, and the sound is much quieter. New Edge cars from the 2000s look archaic

    Mobile phones are incredibly different. Consider the Nokia 8110 used in the Matrix. Compare it to today's Samsung

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Edge
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia_8110
    https://www.argos.co.uk/product/3413034

    Is it just me or have recent car design trends in trying to look "space-aged" actually look like what vehicles of the future were portrayed in sci-fi shows from the 70/80s.
    The new Capri.

    Can't imagine Terry McCann or Bodie & Doyle driving around in one

    https://www.rushlane.com/ford-capri-ev-debuts-with-627km-range-resembles-citroen-basalt-12501059.html
    Didn’t Ford learn from the backlash to the Mustang brand in the US, for exactly the same stunt?
    Talking of futurism - the Capri EV would handily out perform Bodie & Doyle’s ride.

    Many quite boring cars today would have been mad speed demon cars not long ago.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,452
    eek said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A potential rebellion by some Labour MPs over the two-child benefit cap looks likely to peter out after Sir Lindsay Hoyle failed to select their amendment.

    More than a dozen Labour MPs signed an amendment to the King’s Speech calling for the cap to be abolished but Sir Lindsay, the Commons Speaker, announced at lunchtime that he had not selected it for a vote later today.

    He has selected a similar amendment put forward by the SNP but Labour MPs are unlikely to vote for an SNP amendment given the political optics of doing so.

    Which signifies so much as to what is wrong with Westminster politics today. Voting for or against something should not depend on who is doing the proposing.
    If the SNP really cared about the limit they would have dropped their amendment and ensured the Labour rebel one went through.

    There are optics on all side here and the SNP have been stupid enough to provide an escape route for Labour...
    Why should they drop it? They came first, they are a party not some small splinter group, and they have been given a very scarce approval from the Speaker (especially after what happened last time).
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,596
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Most middle class complaint ever, she will miss a wedding,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13662619/Mother-JSO-activist-jailed-M25-sentence.html

    The way she is going on you would think, her daughter just got overexcited that one time...JSO literally have a week in the life of Cressie...bouncing from arrest to court, back to arrest. And of course acting like a spoilt child refusing to engage with the court proceedings.

    A week in resistance with Cressie
    https://juststopoil.org/2023/11/20/a-week-in-resistance-with-cressie/

    The struggle is real. I’m sure no one missed any important event due to her activities 😂
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 659
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Most middle class complaint ever, she will miss a wedding,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13662619/Mother-JSO-activist-jailed-M25-sentence.html

    The way she is going on you would think, her daughter just got overexcited that one time...JSO literally have a week in the life of Cressie...bouncing from arrest to court, back to arrest. And of course acting like a spoilt child refusing to engage with the court proceedings.

    A week in resistance with Cressie
    https://juststopoil.org/2023/11/20/a-week-in-resistance-with-cressie/

    What a prat :D
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The contract for the Bibby Stockholm barge, which houses asylum seekers off the coast of Dorset, will not be renewed past January, the Home Office has announced.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg640n3372qo

    Hardly surprising from memory it would be cheaper to give them a suite at the Savoy with all room service paid for.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,272
    Odd how little criticism there has been of governments for watching this trend with apparently no idea what comes next for the BBC:

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/article/2024/jul/23/half-million-households-cancelled-bbc-licence-fee-last-year

    (Actually requiring evidence of a licence to watch iPlayer probably.)
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    Didn’t Ford learn from the backlash to the Mustang brand in the US, for exactly the same stunt?

    They did learn because the Mach-E has been a huge success which is why they are doing it again with the Capri.

    The backlash, such as it was, was from people who would never buy one anyway.

    GM have also learned because they are doing exactly the same thing with the Corvette brand.
    The Capri is just a ID7 with a different badge on it...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,995
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    Zerohedge claims Harris is 9 points behind Trump

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stumbling-out-gate-harris-starts-race-down-9-points-even-worse-biden

    Mate.

    Zerohedge.

    The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.

    What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
    Generally they are accurate
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,418
    Taz said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Most middle class complaint ever, she will miss a wedding,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13662619/Mother-JSO-activist-jailed-M25-sentence.html

    The way she is going on you would think, her daughter just got overexcited that one time...JSO literally have a week in the life of Cressie...bouncing from arrest to court, back to arrest. And of course acting like a spoilt child refusing to engage with the court proceedings.

    A week in resistance with Cressie
    https://juststopoil.org/2023/11/20/a-week-in-resistance-with-cressie/

    The struggle is real. I’m sure no one missed any important event due to her activities 😂
    IIRC, medical appointments, flights and…. a couple of weddings were missed as a result of the actions in question.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,731
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    In fairness to Trump, he isn't an 80 year old candidate (although he will turn 80 in office if elected).

    My view is Trump remains relatively narrow favourite. So a decent chance Haley will be proved right, and Democrats have improved their chances by ditching Biden, but on balance I think Trump will get over the line (sadly).

    I agree, for Harris to win she needs everything to turn out perfectly whereas Trump can get away with not having a perfect night and winning.

    By the start of September we need to see some polls showing Harris winning the popular vote.
    I disagree. Harris doesn't need everything to be 'perfect'; it's closer than that.
    But yes, the polls need to show a marked improvement within the next couple of weeks.

    This was an interesting snap poll.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4787602-kamala-harris-most-democrats-support-nomination-survey/
    A CBS News/YouGov Poll, released Monday, found 79 percent of Democrats support the party nominating Harris to top the 2024 ticket, while 21 percent said someone else should be nominated.
    The poll, taken just after Biden announced he would withdraw from the race following weeks of calls from some Democrats to step aside over concerns about his stamina to serve another four years or beat former President Trump in November. Biden later endorsed Harris to run in his place and many on the left rapidly united around her candidacy.
    Harris crossed the threshold to secure the Democratic presidential nomination, receiving over 1,968 delegate endorsements less than two days after Biden dropped out of the race.
    Roughly 83 percent of Democratic voters said they approved of Biden’s withdrawal from the race, while just 17 percent disapproved, per the survey.
    About 45 percent of party voters said their chances of defeating Trump are “better” without Biden in the race, while 10 percent said their chances are “worse,” the poll found. Another 17 percent said the chances were not changed and 28 percent said it depends on the nominee.
    The survey also suggested that Biden’s decision to step aside may prompt more voters to head to the polls this November, with 39 percent of Democrats stating they are more motivated to vote now that the president is out of the race. About 49 percent said it did not change their motivation and 6 percent said it made them less motivated.
    The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted July 21-22 among 1,071 registered voters who identify as Democrats. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Omnium said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    Didn’t Ford learn from the backlash to the Mustang brand in the US, for exactly the same stunt?

    They did learn because the Mach-E has been a huge success which is why they are doing it again with the Capri.

    The backlash, such as it was, was from people who would never buy one anyway.

    GM have also learned because they are doing exactly the same thing with the Corvette brand.
    What car do you think Biggles would buy today?

    (Disclaimer: I have a Macan, which I really love, but I know you disapprove.)
    1st gen AMG GT S in Selenite Grey.

    I would rather walk everywhere in Yvette Cooper's shoes rather than drive a Macan but I am glad it exists because it is a money making machine for Porsche. The margin on them is ridiculous as they are just VAG parts bin specials.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,500
    HYUFD said:

    No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984

    Whenever I think of Reagan I think rather of Ustinov's short comic portrayal of him. We've rather lost that sort of kind humour, and perhaps lost that sort of kind politician.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,418
    On topic - maybe

    If the Democrats had had someone better than Kamala, easily. It’s a measure of her position in things that she hasn’t got much better ratings than Biden.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,065
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    Zerohedge claims Harris is 9 points behind Trump

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stumbling-out-gate-harris-starts-race-down-9-points-even-worse-biden

    Mate.

    Zerohedge.

    The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.

    What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
    Zerohedge... the fresh new name for Four Seasons Total Landscaping.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,731
    HYUFD said:

    No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984

    You keep reaching for comparisons which bear no real relation to the current contest.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 5,902
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    Zerohedge claims Harris is 9 points behind Trump

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stumbling-out-gate-harris-starts-race-down-9-points-even-worse-biden

    Mate.

    Zerohedge.

    The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.

    What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
    Zerohedge reported the wrong figures.

    Harris was down 6 in RV and 8 in LV .

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,503
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    Zerohedge claims Harris is 9 points behind Trump

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stumbling-out-gate-harris-starts-race-down-9-points-even-worse-biden

    Mate.

    Zerohedge.

    The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.

    What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
    Generally they are accurate
    Nope.

    I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/10/23/why-hypothetical-polling-is-bobbins/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,344
    edited July 23
    carnforth said:

    Odd how little criticism there has been of governments for watching this trend with apparently no idea what comes next for the BBC:

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/article/2024/jul/23/half-million-households-cancelled-bbc-licence-fee-last-year

    (Actually requiring evidence of a licence to watch iPlayer probably.)

    It suits government and the BBC not to talk about it too much as it then requires difficult decisions and also some inconvenient spotlight shone on how BBC objection to things like adverts is nonsense as they already do it and how they don't really make any telly anymore, its all outsourced or under the commercial BBC studios.

    If you go down the prove you have a licence to watch iPlayer it also plays into why not make BBC subscription service like all the others, at the very least like ITVX. Which again the BBC don't want to get into a conversation about.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,503
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984

    You keep reaching for comparisons which bear no real relation to the current contest.
    I think I know the reason for HYUFD’s antipathy towards Harris.

    Harris supported Meghan Markle in her racism complaint against the Royals.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,500
    Dura_Ace said:

    Omnium said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    Didn’t Ford learn from the backlash to the Mustang brand in the US, for exactly the same stunt?

    They did learn because the Mach-E has been a huge success which is why they are doing it again with the Capri.

    The backlash, such as it was, was from people who would never buy one anyway.

    GM have also learned because they are doing exactly the same thing with the Corvette brand.
    What car do you think Biggles would buy today?

    (Disclaimer: I have a Macan, which I really love, but I know you disapprove.)
    1st gen AMG GT S in Selenite Grey.

    I would rather walk everywhere in Yvette Cooper's shoes rather than drive a Macan but I am glad it exists because it is a money making machine for Porsche. The margin on them is ridiculous as they are just VAG parts bin specials.
    Hints of the Jag E-type in that?

    I agree that the current Macan prices are crazy - twice what I paid. I'd long hankered after an Aston Martin, but I actually like driving rather than garage visits.

    I have fond memories of the mini my dad used to drive. Complete deathtrap, and 0-60 in about a week, but with all the rattling and wildly turbulent air, and the sing-songs - it felt like a good car. (Didn't look it mind you, especially after he replaced the front end with something made of fibreglass)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,995
    edited July 23
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    In fairness to Trump, he isn't an 80 year old candidate (although he will turn 80 in office if elected).

    My view is Trump remains relatively narrow favourite. So a decent chance Haley will be proved right, and Democrats have improved their chances by ditching Biden, but on balance I think Trump will get over the line (sadly).

    I agree, for Harris to win she needs everything to turn out perfectly whereas Trump can get away with not having a perfect night and winning.

    By the start of September we need to see some polls showing Harris winning the popular vote.
    Hillary led Trump by 1-15 points in polls in the week after the 2016 Democratic convention ended on 28th July, so Harris would need to at least match that bounce after this year's Democratic convention to have a chance of beating Trump
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election

    After the Democratic convention of 2020 ended on 20th August Biden led Trump by an average of 9-15 points
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_United_States_presidential_election
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,503
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Most middle class complaint ever, she will miss a wedding,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13662619/Mother-JSO-activist-jailed-M25-sentence.html

    The way she is going on you would think, her daughter just got overexcited that one time...JSO literally have a week in the life of Cressie...bouncing from arrest to court, back to arrest. And of course acting like a spoilt child refusing to engage with the court proceedings.

    A week in resistance with Cressie
    https://juststopoil.org/2023/11/20/a-week-in-resistance-with-cressie/

    I bet she cheered when the JSO eco loon tried to ruin George Osborne’s wedding last year.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,065
    edited July 23
    HYUFD said:

    No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984

    Reagan had that rather good joke in one of the debates that some people were trying to make age into an election issue, but that he promised not to hold his opponent's youth and inexperience against him.

    I think, as Democrats found with Biden, there is a real difference between early 70s (as Reagan was in 1984) and late 70s/early 80s. The aging process is really brutal when you get to and beyond that sort of stage. Some people bear up remarkably well, but they are fairly rare - the attrition rate is very high and the physical and mental decline is often very visible to those nearby.It's no longer steady, later life decline - it gets precipitous in many cases.

    Indeed, Reagan probably had early stage Alzheimers by the time he left office in 1988 (at the same age Trump is now). It wasn't an issue in 1984, but he declined really sharply right at the end of his time in office and soon after it.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    Zerohedge claims Harris is 9 points behind Trump

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stumbling-out-gate-harris-starts-race-down-9-points-even-worse-biden

    Mate.

    Zerohedge.

    The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.

    What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
    Generally they are accurate
    Generally they are untestable. Most hypotheticals do not become actual.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,344
    edited July 23
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Most middle class complaint ever, she will miss a wedding,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13662619/Mother-JSO-activist-jailed-M25-sentence.html

    The way she is going on you would think, her daughter just got overexcited that one time...JSO literally have a week in the life of Cressie...bouncing from arrest to court, back to arrest. And of course acting like a spoilt child refusing to engage with the court proceedings.

    A week in resistance with Cressie
    https://juststopoil.org/2023/11/20/a-week-in-resistance-with-cressie/

    I bet she cheered when the JSO eco loon tried to ruin George Osborne’s wedding last year.
    Classic spoiled kids and now there might finally be real consequences its like totally unfair and mummy / daddy going to back them up that Phoebe and Cressie of this world are just lovely kids, they aren't like those horrid proper criminals. Acting like a tool in the cells and court room I am sure also really helps their cause. They were definitely the kids who parents let them pull the boxes of cereal off the shelf and had a full on temper tantrum after a shop worker asked them nicely to put them back.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,995
    Tweedledee said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    Zerohedge claims Harris is 9 points behind Trump

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stumbling-out-gate-harris-starts-race-down-9-points-even-worse-biden

    Mate.

    Zerohedge.

    The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.

    What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
    Generally they are accurate
    Generally they are untestable. Most hypotheticals do not become actual.
    If the 2 candidates tested are the party leaders or nominees they are
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,995
    edited July 23
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984

    Reagan had that rather good joke in one of the debates that some people were trying to make age into an election issue, but that he promised not to hold his opponent's youth and inexperience against him.

    I think, as Democrats found with Biden, there is a real difference between early 70s (as Reagan was in 1984) and late 70s/early 80s. The aging process is really brutal when you get to and beyond that sort of stage. Some people bear up remarkably well, but they are fairly rare - the attrition rate is very high and the physical and mental decline is often very visible to those nearby.It's no longer steady, later life decline - it gets precipitous in many cases.

    Indeed, Reagan probably had early stage Alzheimers by the time he left office in 1988 (at the same age Trump is now). It wasn't an issue in 1984, but he declined really sharply right at the end of his time in office and soon after it.
    Indeed, though as constitutionally Trump can't run again for a third term even he wins a second term electorally his age won't be an issue next time as if he wins in November, 39 year old VP Vance would likely be GOP nominee in 2028 so he would not have the problem first term Biden did aged over 80 this year
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,660
    Carnyx said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A potential rebellion by some Labour MPs over the two-child benefit cap looks likely to peter out after Sir Lindsay Hoyle failed to select their amendment.

    More than a dozen Labour MPs signed an amendment to the King’s Speech calling for the cap to be abolished but Sir Lindsay, the Commons Speaker, announced at lunchtime that he had not selected it for a vote later today.

    He has selected a similar amendment put forward by the SNP but Labour MPs are unlikely to vote for an SNP amendment given the political optics of doing so.

    Which signifies so much as to what is wrong with Westminster politics today. Voting for or against something should not depend on who is doing the proposing.
    It also relates to the fact that Labour won a by-election in Falkirk a year or so back, against the SNP, by promising to adopt SNP policy and not to follow SKS and Tory policy on the two-child cap.
    Is there any evidence that the two-child cap is less popular in Scotland than elsewhere? Most of the polling I have seen in the past indicates that Scots are just as socially conservative as the English.

    For info here are the UK-wide figures from YouGov

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50140-public-support-retaining-the-two-child-benefit-limit-as-starmer-gears-up-for-first-rebellion
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,995
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    Zerohedge claims Harris is 9 points behind Trump

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stumbling-out-gate-harris-starts-race-down-9-points-even-worse-biden

    Mate.

    Zerohedge.

    The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.

    What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
    Generally they are accurate
    Nope.

    I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/10/23/why-hypothetical-polling-is-bobbins/
    Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,292
    Burgessian said:

    Carnyx said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A potential rebellion by some Labour MPs over the two-child benefit cap looks likely to peter out after Sir Lindsay Hoyle failed to select their amendment.

    More than a dozen Labour MPs signed an amendment to the King’s Speech calling for the cap to be abolished but Sir Lindsay, the Commons Speaker, announced at lunchtime that he had not selected it for a vote later today.

    He has selected a similar amendment put forward by the SNP but Labour MPs are unlikely to vote for an SNP amendment given the political optics of doing so.

    Which signifies so much as to what is wrong with Westminster politics today. Voting for or against something should not depend on who is doing the proposing.
    It also relates to the fact that Labour won a by-election in Falkirk a year or so back, against the SNP, by promising to adopt SNP policy and not to follow SKS and Tory policy on the two-child cap.
    Is there any evidence that the two-child cap is less popular in Scotland than elsewhere? Most of the polling I have seen in the past indicates that Scots are just as socially conservative as the English.

    For info here are the UK-wide figures from YouGov

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50140-public-support-retaining-the-two-child-benefit-limit-as-starmer-gears-up-for-first-rebellion
    Wasn’t this the issue where the SNP “Rape Clause” campaign originated?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Omnium said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Omnium said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    Didn’t Ford learn from the backlash to the Mustang brand in the US, for exactly the same stunt?

    They did learn because the Mach-E has been a huge success which is why they are doing it again with the Capri.

    The backlash, such as it was, was from people who would never buy one anyway.

    GM have also learned because they are doing exactly the same thing with the Corvette brand.
    What car do you think Biggles would buy today?

    (Disclaimer: I have a Macan, which I really love, but I know you disapprove.)
    1st gen AMG GT S in Selenite Grey.

    I would rather walk everywhere in Yvette Cooper's shoes rather than drive a Macan but I am glad it exists because it is a money making machine for Porsche. The margin on them is ridiculous as they are just VAG parts bin specials.
    Hints of the Jag E-type in that?

    A bit, except it doesn't have an asthmatic boat anchor for an engine and the front half of the chassis wasn’t constructed using intra-war bicycle frame fabrication techniques.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Most middle class complaint ever, she will miss a wedding,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13662619/Mother-JSO-activist-jailed-M25-sentence.html

    The way she is going on you would think, her daughter just got overexcited that one time...JSO literally have a week in the life of Cressie...bouncing from arrest to court, back to arrest. And of course acting like a spoilt child refusing to engage with the court proceedings.

    A week in resistance with Cressie
    https://juststopoil.org/2023/11/20/a-week-in-resistance-with-cressie/

    I bet she cheered when the JSO eco loon tried to ruin George Osborne’s wedding last year.
    Classic spoiled kids and now there might finally be real consequences its like totally unfair and mummy / daddy going to back them up that Phoebe and Cressie of this world are just lovely kids, they aren't like those horrid proper criminals. Acting like a tool in the cells and court room I am sure also really helps their cause. They were definitely the kids who parents let them pull the boxes of cereal off the shelf and had a full on temper tantrum after a shop worker asked them nicely to put them back.
    You won't be truly happy until they get jugged inside.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,995
    edited July 23
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984

    You keep reaching for comparisons which bear no real relation to the current contest.
    I think I know the reason for HYUFD’s antipathy towards Harris.

    Harris supported Meghan Markle in her racism complaint against the Royals.
    I suspect even the King might secretly be wearing a 'Make America Great Again' cap in November, he wrote to Trump after his assassination attempt. In 2020 Meghan said she was 'excited' Harris was on the Democratic ticket and Harris also posted supportive tweets to Meghan.

    Wiliiam is close to the Obama's but equally any friend and ally of Meghan's and Harry is not likely to be top of his card list. He certainly won't want a Sussex cheerleader in the White House and may even too have to hold his nose and back Trump given Trump like him is an enemy of the Meghan and accused the Sussexes of 'breaking the late Queen's heart'

    https://www.newsweek.com/meghan-markle-said-about-kamala-harris-comments-1928832
    https://x.com/VP/status/1268907762421043200?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1268907762421043200|twgr^0b4d6c669ddcd5af9a1e3a80ba7f460a2fb21eaa|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.newsweek.com/meghan-markle-said-about-kamala-harris-comments-1928832
    https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/donald-trump-says-prince-harry-and-meghan-markle-broke-queen-elizabeths-heart-5273986
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,418
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984

    Reagan had that rather good joke in one of the debates that some people were trying to make age into an election issue, but that he promised not to hold his opponent's youth and inexperience against him.

    I think, as Democrats found with Biden, there is a real difference between early 70s (as Reagan was in 1984) and late 70s/early 80s. The aging process is really brutal when you get to and beyond that sort of stage. Some people bear up remarkably well, but they are fairly rare - the attrition rate is very high and the physical and mental decline is often very visible to those nearby.It's no longer steady, later life decline - it gets precipitous in many cases.

    Indeed, Reagan probably had early stage Alzheimers by the time he left office in 1988 (at the same age Trump is now). It wasn't an issue in 1984, but he declined really sharply right at the end of his time in office and soon after it.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RtXmnUe9s0
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,452
    Burgessian said:

    Carnyx said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A potential rebellion by some Labour MPs over the two-child benefit cap looks likely to peter out after Sir Lindsay Hoyle failed to select their amendment.

    More than a dozen Labour MPs signed an amendment to the King’s Speech calling for the cap to be abolished but Sir Lindsay, the Commons Speaker, announced at lunchtime that he had not selected it for a vote later today.

    He has selected a similar amendment put forward by the SNP but Labour MPs are unlikely to vote for an SNP amendment given the political optics of doing so.

    Which signifies so much as to what is wrong with Westminster politics today. Voting for or against something should not depend on who is doing the proposing.
    It also relates to the fact that Labour won a by-election in Falkirk a year or so back, against the SNP, by promising to adopt SNP policy and not to follow SKS and Tory policy on the two-child cap.
    Is there any evidence that the two-child cap is less popular in Scotland than elsewhere? Most of the polling I have seen in the past indicates that Scots are just as socially conservative as the English.

    For info here are the UK-wide figures from YouGov

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50140-public-support-retaining-the-two-child-benefit-limit-as-starmer-gears-up-for-first-rebellion

    Labour's adopting the SNP policy at the by-election speaks for itself.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,600
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984

    You keep reaching for comparisons which bear no real relation to the current contest.
    I think I know the reason for HYUFD’s antipathy towards Harris.

    Harris supported Meghan Markle in her racism complaint against the Royals.
    Odds on Markle for VP?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,660
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984

    Reagan had that rather good joke in one of the debates that some people were trying to make age into an election issue, but that he promised not to hold his opponent's youth and inexperience against him.

    I think, as Democrats found with Biden, there is a real difference between early 70s (as Reagan was in 1984) and late 70s/early 80s. The aging process is really brutal when you get to and beyond that sort of stage. Some people bear up remarkably well, but they are fairly rare - the attrition rate is very high and the physical and mental decline is often very visible to those nearby.It's no longer steady, later life decline - it gets precipitous in many cases.

    Indeed, Reagan probably had early stage Alzheimers by the time he left office in 1988 (at the same age Trump is now). It wasn't an issue in 1984, but he declined really sharply right at the end of his time in office and soon after it.
    I suspect a reason for Biden's initial stubbornness was that the very same people who urged him to give way to Hillary in 2016 were the very same people who have been urging him to stand down now. No wonder his instinct was to raise two fingers.

    If he had stood in 2016, he would have won, and the whole Trump nightmare would never have occurred.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,500
    Dura_Ace said:

    Omnium said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Omnium said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    Didn’t Ford learn from the backlash to the Mustang brand in the US, for exactly the same stunt?

    They did learn because the Mach-E has been a huge success which is why they are doing it again with the Capri.

    The backlash, such as it was, was from people who would never buy one anyway.

    GM have also learned because they are doing exactly the same thing with the Corvette brand.
    What car do you think Biggles would buy today?

    (Disclaimer: I have a Macan, which I really love, but I know you disapprove.)
    1st gen AMG GT S in Selenite Grey.

    I would rather walk everywhere in Yvette Cooper's shoes rather than drive a Macan but I am glad it exists because it is a money making machine for Porsche. The margin on them is ridiculous as they are just VAG parts bin specials.
    Hints of the Jag E-type in that?

    A bit, except it doesn't have an asthmatic boat anchor for an engine and the front half of the chassis wasn’t constructed using intra-war bicycle frame fabrication techniques.
    Sure - I was just interested as to what the car-keen saw as good in the modern day, and thanks for that.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984

    You keep reaching for comparisons which bear no real relation to the current contest.
    I think I know the reason for HYUFD’s antipathy towards Harris.

    Harris supported Meghan Markle in her racism complaint against the Royals.
    Odds on Markle for VP?
    Millions to 1 because she doesn’t balance the ticket
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    Zerohedge claims Harris is 9 points behind Trump

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stumbling-out-gate-harris-starts-race-down-9-points-even-worse-biden

    Mate.

    Zerohedge.

    The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.

    What have OGH and told you about hypothetical polls.
    I wonder why Leon, Mr Beds, William Glenn and HY feel the need to ramp Trump using dodgy data on a blog where almost none of us have a vote? Seems odd to me.
    We are all spies.

    Happy now?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,351
    edited July 23
    Interesting fact about Harris: she lived in Montreal from 1976 to 1982.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,446
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Most middle class complaint ever, she will miss a wedding,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13662619/Mother-JSO-activist-jailed-M25-sentence.html

    The way she is going on you would think, her daughter just got overexcited that one time...JSO literally have a week in the life of Cressie...bouncing from arrest to court, back to arrest. And of course acting like a spoilt child refusing to engage with the court proceedings.

    A week in resistance with Cressie
    https://juststopoil.org/2023/11/20/a-week-in-resistance-with-cressie/

    I bet she cheered when the JSO eco loon tried to ruin George Osborne’s wedding last year.
    Classic spoiled kids and now there might finally be real consequences its like totally unfair and mummy / daddy going to back them up that Phoebe and Cressie of this world are just lovely kids, they aren't like those horrid proper criminals. Acting like a tool in the cells and court room I am sure also really helps their cause. They were definitely the kids who parents let them pull the boxes of cereal off the shelf and had a full on temper tantrum after a shop worker asked them nicely to put them back.
    Consequences happen to other people.

    Until they don't...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,995
    Carnyx said:

    Burgessian said:

    Carnyx said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A potential rebellion by some Labour MPs over the two-child benefit cap looks likely to peter out after Sir Lindsay Hoyle failed to select their amendment.

    More than a dozen Labour MPs signed an amendment to the King’s Speech calling for the cap to be abolished but Sir Lindsay, the Commons Speaker, announced at lunchtime that he had not selected it for a vote later today.

    He has selected a similar amendment put forward by the SNP but Labour MPs are unlikely to vote for an SNP amendment given the political optics of doing so.

    Which signifies so much as to what is wrong with Westminster politics today. Voting for or against something should not depend on who is doing the proposing.
    It also relates to the fact that Labour won a by-election in Falkirk a year or so back, against the SNP, by promising to adopt SNP policy and not to follow SKS and Tory policy on the two-child cap.
    Is there any evidence that the two-child cap is less popular in Scotland than elsewhere? Most of the polling I have seen in the past indicates that Scots are just as socially conservative as the English.

    For info here are the UK-wide figures from YouGov

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50140-public-support-retaining-the-two-child-benefit-limit-as-starmer-gears-up-for-first-rebellion

    Labour's adopting the SNP policy at the by-election speaks for itself.
    59% of Scots backed retaining the 2 child cap with Yougov
    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Copy_of_Internal_TwoChildCap_240709.pdf
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,596
    carnforth said:

    Odd how little criticism there has been of governments for watching this trend with apparently no idea what comes next for the BBC:

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/article/2024/jul/23/half-million-households-cancelled-bbc-licence-fee-last-year

    (Actually requiring evidence of a licence to watch iPlayer probably.)

    Had Nadine Dorries still been SofS at the time the license fee would have gone after 2027.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,897
    edited July 23
    The Harris ramping is insane. My timelines are being spammed with a video of her cracking an egg one handed.

    (Impressive tbf. I've never tried it.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,995
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?

    Shapiro if she has any sense
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,687
    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    Zerohedge claims Harris is 9 points behind Trump

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stumbling-out-gate-harris-starts-race-down-9-points-even-worse-biden

    Mate.

    Zerohedge.

    The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.

    What have OGH and told you about hypothetical polls.
    I wonder why Leon, Mr Beds, William Glenn and HY feel the need to ramp Trump using dodgy data on a blog where almost none of us have a vote? Seems odd to me.
    Of course it could be to do with betting.

    Or "they only do it to annoy,because they know it teases".
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    Zerohedge claims Harris is 9 points behind Trump

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stumbling-out-gate-harris-starts-race-down-9-points-even-worse-biden

    Mate.

    Zerohedge.

    The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.

    What have OGH and told you about hypothetical polls.
    I wonder why Leon, Mr Beds, William Glenn and HY feel the need to ramp Trump using dodgy data on a blog where almost none of us have a vote? Seems odd to me.
    We are the P.B. Deporables So-cei-ty.

    (to the tune of self preservation society)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,500
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?

    Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,446
    Eabhal said:

    The Harris ramping is insane. My timelines are being spammed with a video of her cracking an egg one handed.

    (Impressive tbf. I've never tried it.)

    My ex (a chef) could crack two eggs at a time, one in each hand. She said if you were given a few hundred eggs to crack, you got rather good at cracking them quickly.

    Paul Hollywood off did it on a show once as well.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,995
    edited July 23
    Burgessian said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984

    Reagan had that rather good joke in one of the debates that some people were trying to make age into an election issue, but that he promised not to hold his opponent's youth and inexperience against him.

    I think, as Democrats found with Biden, there is a real difference between early 70s (as Reagan was in 1984) and late 70s/early 80s. The aging process is really brutal when you get to and beyond that sort of stage. Some people bear up remarkably well, but they are fairly rare - the attrition rate is very high and the physical and mental decline is often very visible to those nearby.It's no longer steady, later life decline - it gets precipitous in many cases.

    Indeed, Reagan probably had early stage Alzheimers by the time he left office in 1988 (at the same age Trump is now). It wasn't an issue in 1984, but he declined really sharply right at the end of his time in office and soon after it.
    I suspect a reason for Biden's initial stubbornness was that the very same people who urged him to give way to Hillary in 2016 were the very same people who have been urging him to stand down now. No wonder his instinct was to raise two fingers.

    If he had stood in 2016, he would have won, and the whole Trump nightmare would never have occurred.
    Indeed, Democratic elites still don't understand that what wins in NYC, California and DC is not always what wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio. Only after defeat in 2016 for Hillary did they reluctantly agree to back Biden who they felt not intellectually up to the job of POTUS and not really part of their culturally liberal crowd, now he has been forced out with Harris they again have one of their own as nominee.

    It is no surprise that the most successful Democratic candidates tend to be southerners or from a rustbelt state like Texas raised LBJ, Georgia raised Carter, Arkansas raised Clinton or Scranton raised Biden rather than the coasts. Even Obama grew up in Kansas and worked in Illinois not NYC, DC, Boston or San Francisco.

    The last truly liberal elite coastal Dem to win the Presidency was JFK, born and raised in Massachusetts but even he needed LBJ on his ticket to carry Texas and ensure he beat Nixon in a close race in 1960
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,687
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?

    If you are interested in speculation about that, you can find endless amounts on YouTube.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,503
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Burgessian said:

    Carnyx said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A potential rebellion by some Labour MPs over the two-child benefit cap looks likely to peter out after Sir Lindsay Hoyle failed to select their amendment.

    More than a dozen Labour MPs signed an amendment to the King’s Speech calling for the cap to be abolished but Sir Lindsay, the Commons Speaker, announced at lunchtime that he had not selected it for a vote later today.

    He has selected a similar amendment put forward by the SNP but Labour MPs are unlikely to vote for an SNP amendment given the political optics of doing so.

    Which signifies so much as to what is wrong with Westminster politics today. Voting for or against something should not depend on who is doing the proposing.
    It also relates to the fact that Labour won a by-election in Falkirk a year or so back, against the SNP, by promising to adopt SNP policy and not to follow SKS and Tory policy on the two-child cap.
    Is there any evidence that the two-child cap is less popular in Scotland than elsewhere? Most of the polling I have seen in the past indicates that Scots are just as socially conservative as the English.

    For info here are the UK-wide figures from YouGov

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50140-public-support-retaining-the-two-child-benefit-limit-as-starmer-gears-up-for-first-rebellion

    Labour's adopting the SNP policy at the by-election speaks for itself.
    59% of Scots backed retaining the 2 child cap with Yougov
    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Copy_of_Internal_TwoChildCap_240709.pdf
    You know the rules about Scottish sub-samples.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,452
    edited July 23
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Burgessian said:

    Carnyx said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A potential rebellion by some Labour MPs over the two-child benefit cap looks likely to peter out after Sir Lindsay Hoyle failed to select their amendment.

    More than a dozen Labour MPs signed an amendment to the King’s Speech calling for the cap to be abolished but Sir Lindsay, the Commons Speaker, announced at lunchtime that he had not selected it for a vote later today.

    He has selected a similar amendment put forward by the SNP but Labour MPs are unlikely to vote for an SNP amendment given the political optics of doing so.

    Which signifies so much as to what is wrong with Westminster politics today. Voting for or against something should not depend on who is doing the proposing.
    It also relates to the fact that Labour won a by-election in Falkirk a year or so back, against the SNP, by promising to adopt SNP policy and not to follow SKS and Tory policy on the two-child cap.
    Is there any evidence that the two-child cap is less popular in Scotland than elsewhere? Most of the polling I have seen in the past indicates that Scots are just as socially conservative as the English.

    For info here are the UK-wide figures from YouGov

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50140-public-support-retaining-the-two-child-benefit-limit-as-starmer-gears-up-for-first-rebellion

    Labour's adopting the SNP policy at the by-election speaks for itself.
    59% of Scots backed retaining the 2 child cap with Yougov
    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Copy_of_Internal_TwoChildCap_240709.pdf
    Scottish subsample warning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Edit: ah, TSE got in first. I give him precedence.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,344
    edited July 23
    Baking Soda the hot new drug for elite althetes....I still suspect the Tour de France cyclists might be on something a bit stronger.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/olympics/2024/07/23/baking-soda-supplement-holy-grail-supplement-advances-sport/
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481
    Omnium said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?

    Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
    The white man argument comes from the theory that you need a balanced ticket. Reality is Harris does have a freehand but needs to pick someone who can bring in extra votes and States...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,497
    Carnyx said:

    Burgessian said:

    Carnyx said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A potential rebellion by some Labour MPs over the two-child benefit cap looks likely to peter out after Sir Lindsay Hoyle failed to select their amendment.

    More than a dozen Labour MPs signed an amendment to the King’s Speech calling for the cap to be abolished but Sir Lindsay, the Commons Speaker, announced at lunchtime that he had not selected it for a vote later today.

    He has selected a similar amendment put forward by the SNP but Labour MPs are unlikely to vote for an SNP amendment given the political optics of doing so.

    Which signifies so much as to what is wrong with Westminster politics today. Voting for or against something should not depend on who is doing the proposing.
    It also relates to the fact that Labour won a by-election in Falkirk a year or so back, against the SNP, by promising to adopt SNP policy and not to follow SKS and Tory policy on the two-child cap.
    Is there any evidence that the two-child cap is less popular in Scotland than elsewhere? Most of the polling I have seen in the past indicates that Scots are just as socially conservative as the English.

    For info here are the UK-wide figures from YouGov

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50140-public-support-retaining-the-two-child-benefit-limit-as-starmer-gears-up-for-first-rebellion

    Labour's adopting the SNP policy at the by-election speaks for itself.
    And since then, though only blowing hot until the point that they have to diverge from Lab HQ policy. One day Anas & co might be confused enough to follow through on backing something on a point of principle, if only by accident.

    https://x.com/msm_monitor/status/1815677444147347904?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,112
    Eabhal said:

    The Harris ramping is insane. My timelines are being spammed with a video of her cracking an egg one handed.

    (Impressive tbf. I've never tried it.)

    It's not too hard and it really helps if you need to be beating the mixture at the same time with the other hand. Takes about the same amount of dexterity as using chopsticks. Not in itself sufficient to qualify for POTUS.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 659
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?

    Cause the market's thin as shit with a 12% overround so you'll either make a fiver or put in some size and only get filled when you're wrong, probably.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,418
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    Zerohedge claims Harris is 9 points behind Trump

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stumbling-out-gate-harris-starts-race-down-9-points-even-worse-biden

    Mate.

    Zerohedge.

    The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.

    What have OGH and told you about hypothetical polls.
    I wonder why Leon, Mr Beds, William Glenn and HY feel the need to ramp Trump using dodgy data on a blog where almost none of us have a vote? Seems odd to me.
    We are all spies.

    Happy now?
    диверсант, Shirely?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,112
    edited July 23
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Burgessian said:

    Carnyx said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A potential rebellion by some Labour MPs over the two-child benefit cap looks likely to peter out after Sir Lindsay Hoyle failed to select their amendment.

    More than a dozen Labour MPs signed an amendment to the King’s Speech calling for the cap to be abolished but Sir Lindsay, the Commons Speaker, announced at lunchtime that he had not selected it for a vote later today.

    He has selected a similar amendment put forward by the SNP but Labour MPs are unlikely to vote for an SNP amendment given the political optics of doing so.

    Which signifies so much as to what is wrong with Westminster politics today. Voting for or against something should not depend on who is doing the proposing.
    It also relates to the fact that Labour won a by-election in Falkirk a year or so back, against the SNP, by promising to adopt SNP policy and not to follow SKS and Tory policy on the two-child cap.
    Is there any evidence that the two-child cap is less popular in Scotland than elsewhere? Most of the polling I have seen in the past indicates that Scots are just as socially conservative as the English.

    For info here are the UK-wide figures from YouGov

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50140-public-support-retaining-the-two-child-benefit-limit-as-starmer-gears-up-for-first-rebellion

    Labour's adopting the SNP policy at the by-election speaks for itself.
    59% of Scots backed retaining the 2 child cap with Yougov
    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Copy_of_Internal_TwoChildCap_240709.pdf
    You know the rules about Scottish sub-samples.
    The "no true Scottish subsample" fallacy?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,452
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Carnyx said:

    Burgessian said:

    Carnyx said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A potential rebellion by some Labour MPs over the two-child benefit cap looks likely to peter out after Sir Lindsay Hoyle failed to select their amendment.

    More than a dozen Labour MPs signed an amendment to the King’s Speech calling for the cap to be abolished but Sir Lindsay, the Commons Speaker, announced at lunchtime that he had not selected it for a vote later today.

    He has selected a similar amendment put forward by the SNP but Labour MPs are unlikely to vote for an SNP amendment given the political optics of doing so.

    Which signifies so much as to what is wrong with Westminster politics today. Voting for or against something should not depend on who is doing the proposing.
    It also relates to the fact that Labour won a by-election in Falkirk a year or so back, against the SNP, by promising to adopt SNP policy and not to follow SKS and Tory policy on the two-child cap.
    Is there any evidence that the two-child cap is less popular in Scotland than elsewhere? Most of the polling I have seen in the past indicates that Scots are just as socially conservative as the English.

    For info here are the UK-wide figures from YouGov

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50140-public-support-retaining-the-two-child-benefit-limit-as-starmer-gears-up-for-first-rebellion

    Labour's adopting the SNP policy at the by-election speaks for itself.
    And since then, though only blowing hot until the point that they have to diverge from Lab HQ policy. One day Anas & co might be confused enough to follow through on backing something on a point of principle, if only by accident.

    https://x.com/msm_monitor/status/1815677444147347904?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
    Not to mention actually following HoC procedures and not simply bending them when inconvenient for Labour.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,418
    TimS said:

    Eabhal said:

    The Harris ramping is insane. My timelines are being spammed with a video of her cracking an egg one handed.

    (Impressive tbf. I've never tried it.)

    It's not too hard and it really helps if you need to be beating the mixture at the same time with the other hand. Takes about the same amount of dexterity as using chopsticks. Not in itself sufficient to qualify for POTUS.
    My wife does it - after years of making cakes for a hobby, she does it almost reflexively. While reading a recipe, talking to people, doing other things.

    Strongly suggests that Kamala either cooks a fair bit or did so for quite a bit of time, previously.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,418
    eek said:

    Omnium said:

    MisterBedfordshire said:

    Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?

    Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
    The white man argument comes from the theory that you need a balanced ticket. Reality is Harris does have a freehand but needs to pick someone who can bring in extra votes and States...
    Not so much a "white man" but someone who has lots of appeal in the swing states, would be the traditional political thinking.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    edited July 23
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Baking Soda the hot new drug for elite althetes....I still suspect the Tour de France cyclists might be on something a bit stronger.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/olympics/2024/07/23/baking-soda-supplement-holy-grail-supplement-advances-sport/

    Carbon monoxide is the TdF drug of the moment, expect a spate of amateurs to be found dead with their mouths clamped round the exhaust pipe
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    HYUFD said:

    Burgessian said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984

    Reagan had that rather good joke in one of the debates that some people were trying to make age into an election issue, but that he promised not to hold his opponent's youth and inexperience against him.

    I think, as Democrats found with Biden, there is a real difference between early 70s (as Reagan was in 1984) and late 70s/early 80s. The aging process is really brutal when you get to and beyond that sort of stage. Some people bear up remarkably well, but they are fairly rare - the attrition rate is very high and the physical and mental decline is often very visible to those nearby.It's no longer steady, later life decline - it gets precipitous in many cases.

    Indeed, Reagan probably had early stage Alzheimers by the time he left office in 1988 (at the same age Trump is now). It wasn't an issue in 1984, but he declined really sharply right at the end of his time in office and soon after it.
    I suspect a reason for Biden's initial stubbornness was that the very same people who urged him to give way to Hillary in 2016 were the very same people who have been urging him to stand down now. No wonder his instinct was to raise two fingers.

    If he had stood in 2016, he would have won, and the whole Trump nightmare would never have occurred.
    Indeed, Democratic elites still don't understand that what wins in NYC, California and DC is not always what wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio. Only after defeat in 2016 for Hillary did they reluctantly agree to back Biden who they felt not intellectually up to the job of POTUS and not really part of their culturally liberal crowd, now he has been forced out with Harris they again have one of their own as nominee.

    It is no surprise that the most successful Democratic candidates tend to be southerners or from a rustbelt state like Texas raised LBJ, Georgia raised Carter, Arkansas raised Clinton or Scranton raised Biden rather than the coasts. Even Obama grew up in Kansas and worked in Illinois not NYC, DC, Boston or San Francisco.

    The last truly liberal elite coastal Dem to win the Presidency was JFK, born and raised in Massachusetts but even he needed LBJ on his ticket to carry Texas and ensure he beat Nixon in a close race in 1960
    Have you, out of interest, spent a lot of time in the US?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    HYUFD said:

    Tweedledee said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    Zerohedge claims Harris is 9 points behind Trump

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stumbling-out-gate-harris-starts-race-down-9-points-even-worse-biden

    Mate.

    Zerohedge.

    The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.

    What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
    Generally they are accurate
    Generally they are untestable. Most hypotheticals do not become actual.
    If the 2 candidates tested are the party leaders or nominees they are
    So far the only national poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of Biden dropping out is that by Morning Consult. They wrote it up as follows:
    "Former President Donald Trump leads Harris by 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%, in our survey conducted after Biden announced his decision to step aside, marking an improvement from the 6-point margin Biden faced in our surveys conducted ahead of his exit from the race."

    That's a marked improvement in the Democrats' polling with Harris as the assumed nominee, even at a point before it became clear to all that she would be the one replacing Biden. Bear in mind too that that latest poll was also conducted in the immediate aftermath of a week of wall to wall coverage of the Republican convention, that is what was still a very favourable polling window for the Republicans.

    So the Democrats are back in the game and there's all to play for.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,378
    edited July 23
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    Zerohedge claims Harris is 9 points behind Trump

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stumbling-out-gate-harris-starts-race-down-9-points-even-worse-biden

    Mate.

    Zerohedge.

    The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.

    What have OGH and told you about hypothetical polls.
    I wonder why Leon, Mr Beds, William Glenn and HY feel the need to ramp Trump using dodgy data on a blog where almost none of us have a vote? Seems odd to me.
    We are the P.B. Deporables So-cei-ty.

    (to the tune of self preservation society)
    (...if not the rhythm).
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,897
    TimS said:

    Eabhal said:

    The Harris ramping is insane. My timelines are being spammed with a video of her cracking an egg one handed.

    (Impressive tbf. I've never tried it.)

    It's not too hard and it really helps if you need to be beating the mixture at the same time with the other hand. Takes about the same amount of dexterity as using chopsticks. Not in itself sufficient to qualify for POTUS.
    Bake Off might be a good way to pick political leaders. You need to be creative, perform under pressure, retain a good sense of humour, yet still have the capacity to remove an opponent's Baked Alaska out of the freezer.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,157
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    Zerohedge claims Harris is 9 points behind Trump

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stumbling-out-gate-harris-starts-race-down-9-points-even-worse-biden

    Mate.

    Zerohedge.

    The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.

    What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
    Generally they are accurate
    Nope.

    I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/10/23/why-hypothetical-polling-is-bobbins/
    Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
    A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
This discussion has been closed.